Statfox Platinum Sheet College
N CAROLINA at MARYLAND
As close as North Carolina (7-2) and Maryland (6-3) are in record overall and in conference play, I can’t help but consider how different these teams really are. North Carolina’s numbers are just far superior in almost every category. The Tarheels have accomplished this against a tougher schedule even. Consider the Outplay Factor Ratings as exhibit A: UNC +15.4, Maryland +0.7. North Carolina is a Top 15 team when you look at that number, while Maryland is barely even outplaying its opponents. The Tarheels outscore their opposition by 12.5 PPG while Maryland is just +2.5. The final straw for me is that UNC is the hotter team, coming in with the momentum of two straight impressive wins. Maryland is 1-3 ATS in its L4. There is a reason HC Butch Davs team is favored here.Play: N Carolina -3
NOTRE DAME vs.NAVY
Navy’s upset of Notre Dame last year snapped a 43-year losing streak in the head-to-head series. Apparently oddsmakers believe there is a good chance the Middies can make it two straight. I don’t buy it. We all know how badly the Irish struggled last season, particularly on offense. If there was ever a year in which Navy would shock Notre Dame, it was 2007. As far as this season is concerned, the Irish are a much more capable club on offense, last week’s shutout loss to BC aside. Actually, that loss last week in which the Irish turned the ball over five times has a lot to do with why they are only laying 3-points here. To me it is an overreaction. I expect a big day from Charlie Weis’ club, particularly QB Jimmy Clausen. ND rolls.Play: Notre Dame -3
CALIFORNIA at OREGON ST
I can just see the proponents of the BCS restless in their seats over their concern with Oregon State potentially snatching up the Pac 10’s Rose Bowl bid. The Beavers are on no one’s BCS standings radar, yet with an upset of USC to their credit, they are still in position to win the conference title. The fact is they are getting better and better as the season wears on. HC Mike Riley’s team comes into this matchup with a 4-game winning streak, having held those opponents to just 260 YPG. They are also 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring clubs by 24.7 PPG. On top of that, they’ve been historically good late in the season at home: OREGON ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home November games since 1992. The average score was OREGON ST 28.5, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 2*). Hope all you will that OSU will lose to give USC the Pac 10 title. I just don’t see it happening here. Play: Oregon St -3
GEORGIA at AUBURN
Auburn is in rough shape, having lost its last eight games against the spread while scoring just 19.5 PPG for the season. I’ve learned in the past that those types of teams are like poison. Georgia meanwhile is still playing with a purpose and an outside shot at the BCS still. The Bulldogs haven’t been covering many pointspreads themselves lately, but that is due much more to a treacherous recent schedule than any other factor. They are still pouring in the points and will have a major offensive advantage here. On top of that, HC Mark Richt’s team has had its way with Auburn the last two years, winning by 25 & 22 points. This Tigers’ team does not look like a bowl team. No reason to force a play on them here as the home dog, they are overmatched.Play: Georgia -8
S CAROLINA at FLORIDA
As hard as it is to put out a play against the team playing perhaps the best football in the country with a coach that seems hungry to cover pointspreads, I can’t get over the fact that South Carolina has not lost by a margin big enough to cover this line since Spurrier’s fourth game with the team in 2005. That was essentially leftovers from Lou Holtz’s team. These Gamecocks are all Spurrier’s and they boast one of the best defenses in the country. In fact, allowing just 15.6 PPG, this is an extremely rare case where you’ll get an underdog catching 7-points more than they actually allow. Is that to mean that the Gamecocks offense won’t take the field Saturday? For the record, that unit scores 24 PPG itself. The last time these teams met in the swamp, the Gators won 17-16 in ’06. While I believe Florida will score more than that, this seems like at most a 31-17 type of game.Play: S Carolina +22
Statfox Platinum Sheet NFL
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND
New England got the better of New York in their week 2 meeting earlier this season, but I can assure you that HC Eric Mangini won’t be anywhere near as conservative as he was in that contest. His team has shown the ability all season long to make big plays on both sides of the ball. If he turns this into a grind it out contest once again, his team will lose. He has a big offensive edge to turn to here, primarily at quarterback, outscoring New England by over a touchdown per game. He also has the better Outplay Factor Rating of both the teams, +2.9 to +0.1. If that’s not enough, consider this attractive StatFox Super Situation the deciding factor: Play On - Any team (NY JETS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. (22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*).Play: NY Jets +3
OAKLAND at MIAMI
Oakland is struggling, no doubt about it. However, I always say that double-digit pointspreads should be reserved for the league’s elite teams. No disrespect, but Miami is not an elite team. The Dolphins are feasting on weak opponents, and when I use the word feast, I mean building their won-lost record, not dominating. The Fish only average 21.3 PPG, meaning they don’t have the offensive firepower to be expected to rout anyone. Check out the system based on the two teams’ offensive production: Play On - Any team (OAKLAND) - a terrible offensive team (<=14 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. (82-44 since 1983.) (65.1%, +33.6 units. Rating = 2*). If that weren’t enough, MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=285 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MIAMI 12.7, OPPONENT 25.0 - (Rating = 2*). Not that much has changed yet, last week’s Miami near-loss to Seattle proves that.Play: Oakland +11
NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY
Taking the exact excerpt from this week’s feature article on page 7…Sean Payton’s teams at New Orleans have been potent offensively behind Drew Brees. Most of the games they lose are shootouts because their defense is the weaker unit. Well, when matched up against opposing offenses that can’t take advantage because of their inability to pass, the Saints win often, and win big. In fact, the average victory margin is a healthy 21.4 PPG on a 6-0 ATS record…As much as it hurts to take a team that struggles on the road defensively as a road favorite, I believe the home team has to have the ability to take advantage of that weakness. Kansas City does not and opponents are putting up big numbers through the air. I expect Brees to do the same.Play: New Orleans -4
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH
I am done with the San Diego Chargers, at least until they prove they have either the heart or the talent to warrant the prices that oddsmakers are putting on them. They look much slower offensively than we’re used to seeing and teams are just pushing them around on the other side of the ball. I don’t think experts are making nearly enough about how much the LB Shawn Merriman injury meant to this team. Look at the defensive numbers they’ve allowed so far: 26.0 PPG, 396 YPG, 6.0 YPP. Those are awful. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has stayed among the elite in the AFC despite playing one of the league’s toughest schedules. This game will seem much easier on Ben Roethlisberger than what he has become accustomed to. He and the Steelers should be able to take advantage. PITTSBURGH is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.9, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 1*). Play: Pittsburgh -3.5
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO
Motivation is one of the most under-scrutinized factors in handicapping sports. It seems we all like to look for teams that have plenty to play for,but we don’t put enough into which teams’ seasons may have already been rendered over. Well, Cleveland’s 2008 campaign has essentially been flushed down the toilet. After making a run at the playoffs a year ago,this franchise is once again in disarray and it came to a head in the late loss last Thursday night vs. Denver. Meanwhile, Buffalo is struggling a bit but still finds itself in the playoff hunt. The Bills also have the motivation of playing in front of the home folks on a Monday night. They have a history of taking care of bad teams too: Jauron is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of BUFFALO.The average score was BUFFALO 21.0, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 2*). The Browns qualify as a bad team, one not worthy of your betting dollar.Play: Buffalo -4.5