Newsletters 11/18 - 11/23

TULSA (-28½) Tulane 2:00 PM
Tulsa got a little taste of its own medicine last week as Houston
hung 70 on the Golden Hurricane in a season where Tulsa has
scored over 50 five times. Turnovers were the problem last week but
the defense has been surrendering big numbers all season long.
Tulane has covered in three out of four road games this season but
the defensive numbers for the Green Wave have gone downhill fast
after a strong start to the year. Tulsa has covered in seven of the
last eight as double-digit favorites but since losing the undefeated
run the focus may never get back to the same level. Tulsa is tough
to go against but it makes sense at this price. TULSA BY 21

OKLAHOMA (-6½) Texas Tech 7:00 PM
Bye weeks have added to the build-up of this huge game on the
national picture. A lot of scenarios will be changed by this outcome
and the winner will be in the driver’s seat to the BCS title game as
an Oklahoma victory plus a win next week likely gives the Sooners
the tiebreaker edge in a potential 3-way tie in the Big 12 South.
Texas Tech actually beat Oklahoma last season at home and the
home team has won eight of the last ten in this series. The Sooners
are 12-3 in the last 15 games as home favorites and Oklahoma
owns the top turnover margin in the nation. Both defenses have
been marginal this season and the difference between these teams
is the Texas game which both games could have gone either way.
Texas Tech played that game at home and has had the more
favorable schedule so Oklahoma may be able to ruin the perfect
season dreams and set-up a mess in the BCS. OKLAHOMA BY 7

PENN STATE (-14½) Michigan State 2:30 PM
A Rose Bowl spot is on the line here but these teams have arrived at
6-1 in the Big Ten in very different ways. The Spartans played a
favorable conference slate with the toughest games at home and it
took several very narrow wins to get through it. In games against
similar opponents Penn State appears much stronger in many of
those games. Last year Penn State led 24-7 in the second half but
surrendered the game to Michigan State with a furious rally so there
will be added motivation this week. Statistically Penn State is about
90 yards superior on both sides of the ball and the bye week
advantage should not make up for the mismatch. Look for Penn
State to dominate this game and seal the Big Ten title. PSU BY 21

Clemson (-3) VIRGINIA 11:00 AM
The Cavaliers have faced one of the toughest schedules in the
nation and a bye week should help the team recover after back-toback
losses. Against a turnover prone offense Virginia’s defense
should be very effective and last week’s solid win against Duke
should not carry too much weight for the Tigers. Clemson lost 30-10
the last meeting in Charlottesville and the Cavaliers own a very solid
home field edge. Neither of these teams should have much success
on the ground and this is a critical game for two 5-5 teams that will
face very challenging games next week. VIRIGNIA BY 7

TCU (-18) Air Force 2:30 PM
TCU had a bye week last week but it will be tough to recover from
the crushing loss against Utah. Air Force meanwhile also faced a
tough defeat at home last week. The Falcons have an impressive
record but few impressive wins as the quality of the Mountain West
after the top teams has not been strong this year. TCU’s run
defense has the best numbers in the nation and Air Force will have
a lot of problems moving the ball in this match-up. The Horned
Frogs are 13-3 in the last 16 games as home favorites and this
should be a favorable match-up for the TCU offense to have
success running the ball. TCU BY 21

CALIFORNIA (-9) Stanford 2:30 PM
Losses the last two weeks have been very disappointing for
California while losses the last two weeks have been encouraging
for Stanford. The Cardinal posted very strong numbers against
USC’s defense and also took Oregon down to the wire on the road
meaning that the program has taken a big step after being beaten
badly in many games against top teams in recent years. Stanford
needs one more win for bowl eligibility and this will be a much more
meaningful game for the Cardinal despite the rivalry. Stanford
rushes for 206 yards per game and the Cal offense has not been
nearly as productive as many previous Bears teams. Cal has had
success at home but this is likely a tough spot after missing in big
games the past two weeks. CALIFORNIA BY 3

Louisiana Tech (-7) NEW MEXICO STATE 3:00 PM
New Mexico State has lost five straight games while Louisiana Tech
has played its way into bowl position with wins in four of the last five
games. The Bulldogs have been a terrible road team with a 6-14
ATS record in the last 20 away from home and just one S/U and
ATS win this season. Louisiana Tech won 22-21 last season,
making up a big deficit, so this will be a key game for the underdog
Aggies as they wrap up their home schedule. New Mexico State
can post big numbers in the air and both defenses have had
problems this season with similarly mediocre numbers. NMS BY 3

Boise State (-6) NEVADA 3:00 PM
Last season these teams played an incredible game with Boise
State winning 69-67 in four overtimes. Boise State has dominated
this series with covers in seven of the last eight meetings but
Nevada enters this game with some momentum. Nevada rushes for
325 yards per game, the top numbers in the country on the ground,
featuring a far more productive offense in this match-up. Boise State
is allowing just ten points per game however and no WAC opponent
has scored more than 16 points against the Broncos. Boise State
has a lot to play for as a BCS bowl is still possible with some help
and the Broncos can clinch the WAC title this week. BOISE BY 13

East Carolina (-7) UAB 6:00 PM
East Carolina is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games and the offense has
really struggled against mediocre teams the last three weeks. UAB
enters this game off a big win and the Blazers have now won two of
the last three games. Defense has been a big problem for UAB but
the offense has been able to move the ball effectively. UAB has
faced one of the weakest schedules in the nation and still allowed
big numbers so another solid performance is unlikely this week. This
will be the third week in a row on the road for UAB and last week’s
loss should be a wake-up call for a Pirates team that is still in
position to win the C-USA East division. EAST CAROLINA BY 14

HOUSTON (-15) Utep 2:30 PM
After posting 70 against Tulsa last week Houston will be a bit
overvalued this week and the Cougars face a solid Miners squad
that has won two in a row. UTEP could still make a bowl game,
currently sitting at 5-5 and the Miners have had a lot of success
creating turnovers in recent games to mask a faulty defense.
Houston’s passing offense can post huge numbers but last week’s
win featured five turnovers to pad the numbers. Looking ahead to
next week’s 1st place showdown with city rival Rice might be a
possibility for Houston here and UTEP can be a dangerous
underdog with solid numbers under Coach Price. Houston is just 3-9
in the last twelve games as favorites. HOUSTON BY 6

UTAH (-6½) Byu 5:00 PM
One game separates Utah from a BCS bowl spot and it matches up
two city rivals for a huge Mountain West season finale. Ten of the
last eleven meetings have been decided by seven points or less and
this will also be a revenge game for Utah after a wild finish led to
BYU winning and covering last season. Utah owns the far more
impressive resume as early season Pac-10 wins no longer look
impressive for the Cougars. BYU features the more productive
offense but the Utes have far better numbers on defense for the
year. The series history dictates a competitive game but Utah should
have several serious advantages in this match-up. Look for Utah to
deliver the victory here as BYU has not been near the level of play
that took them to great success last season. The perfect season can
happen and the Utes will not disappoint. UTAH BY 10

Iowa (-5) MINNESOTA 6:00 PM
The Gophers played a competitive game last week but suffered a
third straight loss. The lack of a running game and the loss of WR
Decker make moving the ball more difficult and the easy schedule
appears to have been a big factor in the hot start to the season.
Iowa is in solid bowl position at 7-4 and the Hawkeyers have won
four of the last five after starting the Big Ten season 0-2. Iowa is
giving up just 14 points per game with significant advantages on
defense versus Minnesota and the offense has actually been more
productive as well. Iowa has owned this series, covering in 12 of 15
since 1993 and it will be tough for the Gophers to rebound after
having the season fall apart the last three weeks. IOWA BY 10

ARIZONA (-3) Oregon State 6:00 PM
The Beavers keep rolling in the Pac-10 as special teams delivered in
last week’s win. Oregon State faces two tough games the next two
weeks but the Beavers can win the conference. Oregon State has
played through a much tougher schedule than Arizona and the
Wildcats have just one win against a quality team this season.
Although Arizona has covered in seven consecutive home games
Oregon State has dominated this series, covering in eight of the past
nine meetings. Arizona’s offense has inflated numbers from a few
blowout wins and Oregon State should have the defensive edge in
this match-up. The Beavers might face a tough game here but
should be able to pull it out. OREGON STATE BY 7

West Virginia (-7) LOUISVILLE 11:00 AM
West Virginia is still in the hunt for the Big East title with just one
conference loss and this could be tricky game in a series that has
been very close the past three years. Louisville features one of the
better statistical run defenses in the nation but it is in part a factor of
a poor pass defense. The Cardinals can still play for bowl eligibility
but there are few impressive wins on the resume. Last week the
Cardinals played a very tight game with division leader Cincinnati,
the same result that West Virginia had before the bye week. West
Virginia is allowing just 16 points per game but the offense has not
lived up to expectations. This could be a tough game for the
Mountaineers as Louisville looks to rebound. West Virginia has
disappointed often this season. WV BY 4

MEMPHIS (-4) Central Florida 1:00 PM
A solid Memphis team was crushed in a blowout last year against
Central Michigan, falling behind 49-0 at one point. A bye week has
allowed extra time for this revenge spot and Central Florida has
produced horrible offensive numbers this season. Turnovers gave
UCF a win last week and the Knights are better than the record
indicates but this is a good spot for Memphis, still in need of another
win for a shot at a bowl game. The Tigers are also in the thick of the
division race so this will be a critical game for the Tigers while
Central Florida is on the road for the second consecutive week.
Memphis lacks a quality defense but the offense can carry the team
this week for a critical win. MEMPHIS BY 9

Unlv (-13) SAN DIEGO STATE 7:00 PM
UNLV could make it to 6-6 with a win this week despite losing five in
a row at one point. San Diego State has now lost seven straight
games, falling to 1-10 on the year. The Aztecs allow 267 yards per
game on the ground while rushing for just 71 yards per game on
offense. UNLV allows close to 32 points per game so the Aztecs will
have some opportunities in this match-up. San Diego State has
faced a tougher schedule and UNLV has been a horrible road team
in recent years. It is tough to back San Diego State but UNLV is not
a team that should lay points on the road. UNLV BY 6

LSU (-5½) Mississippi 2:30 PM
Ole Miss gained bowl eligibility last week in a strong turnaround
season. LSU had an incredible rally last week to avoid an upset but
the Tigers have taken a major step back this season. LSU is 1-6
ATS in the last seven games and 1-10 ATS in the last eleven home
games. Mississippi has considerable credibility as the lone team to
beat Florida this season and the Rebels also played Alabama very
tough. Mississippi is 9-2 ATS the last eleven meetings in this series
and statistically these teams look very similar with Ole Miss actually
having a slight edge on defense. LSU had been unreliable and
Mississippi appears to be gaining momentum with three straight
wins including an abs olute blowout last week. OLE MISS BY 10

HAWAII (-23) Idaho 10:05 PM
The Warriors sit at 5-5 and need to keep winning to earn a bowl
spot, playing 13-game schedule. The Vandals enter this game after
facing Boise State so the long travel could take an even greater toll.
Coach McMackin has Idaho ties so this is a big game for his staff.
Quietly Hawaii has covered in five of the past six games and the
improvement has been solid in the rebuilding program. Idaho has
failed against the spread in four straight meetings in this series and
Idaho has allowed 40 points or more in eight games this season.
The Hawaii offense should have a big day in this match-up and the
Warriors can take the next step. HAWAII BY 27

ARKANSAS STATE (NL) Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Last season’s Sun Belt champion Florida Atlantic has now won four
straight games after a rough start to the season and the Owls face
an Arkansas State team they narrowly beat last year 34-31.
Arkansas State has seen a promising season disappear with losses
in three consecutive games. The Red Wolves have failed against
the spread in five straight games and are just 4-9 ATS in the last 13
home games. Arkansas State features a solid running game
averaging 209 yards per game but last season the unit posted just
256 total yards in this match-up. The Owl offense is on a roll right
now with big numbers in four straight games and the veteran squad
can stay in contention in the Sun Belt. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 3

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-6) UL-Monroe 6:00 PM
The FIU Panthers have covered in six of the last seven games to put
together a respectable season through one of the toughest
schedules of all Sun Belt teams. The Panthers have had two weeks
to prepare for this game and this is a good situation for another win.
Florida International is 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games and
UL-Monroe was humiliated in a blowout loss last week. Defense has
been very solid for FIU in Sun Belt play while in contrast UL-Monroe
is allowing 452 yards per game. Look for the Panthers to keep
delivering in a pleasant surprise season. UL-Monroe is facing a third
consecutive road games this week. FIU BY 17

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (NL) North Texas 6:00 PM
North Texas has just one win on the season and the defense is
allowing 490 yards per game. The Mean Green has also been
plagued by turnovers, losing the turnover battle by 1½ per game on
average. This could be a high scoring game between two passing
offenses as Middle Tennessee State is passing for 240 yards per
game and will find a lot of space to throw this week. The Blue
Raiders won 48-28 in this series last season and 35-0 the last time
these teams played in Murfreesboro. Despite decent production,
Middle Tennessee State has not scored more than 24 points in any
game this season so North Texas may find a way to stay within this
elevated spread. MTSU BY 10

TROY (-7½) UL-Lafayette 6:00 PM
Troy nearly pulled off a great upset last week and blowing a huge
lead at LSU should take a toll heading into this critical Sun Belt
match-up. UL-Lafayette and Troy are tied at 4-1 in the conference
standings and the Ragin’ Cajuns need to snap back after back-toback
losses the past two weeks. Troy won 48-31 last season in this
series and this has typically been a high scoring series. ULLafayette
is 6-2 in the last eight road games and with a rushing
average of 283 yards per game the Cajuns are a dangerous matchup.
The Troy defense has been vulnerable this season and this is
going to be a tough spot after such a great effort last week. Look for
UL-Lafayette to take charge in the Sun Belt. UL-L BY 3

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2008

SOUTH FLORIDA (-3) Connecticut 7:00 PM
The Bulls have now lost three in a row after turnovers derailed any
hopes last week. Connecticut beat South Florida last season 22-15
despite being soundly out-gained. Connecticut rushes for 209 yards
per game but South Florida owns one of the best run defenses in
the nation if properly motivated. South Florida allowed well over
double its season average for points allowed last week with a sloppy
offensive performance setting up easy scores and this team has the
talent, but the motivation is suspect at this point in the year.
Connecticut is well coached but now faces a second straight road
game. This line is now where it should be based on recent results
but South Florida can bounce back. USF BY 7

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Miami
RATING 4 MINNESOTA (+1) over Jacksonville
RATING 3 NY GIANTS (-3½) over Arizona
RATING 2 INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over San Diego
RATING 1 BALTIMORE (-1) over Philadelphia

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2008

PITTSBURGH (-10) Cincinnati (36) 7:15 PM
The Steelers dominated statistically last week but still needed a late
score for the victory. Pittsburgh backers were robbed of a cover last
week in a crazy final play and officiating decision. The Steelers get a
break this week in a brutal second half schedule but Cincinnati has
covered the past two games with a win and a tie against solid
competition. The first meeting was a blowout between these teams but
that game was actually much closer than the final margin as Pittsburgh
padded the lead with late scores. Double-digit favorites continue lose
each week. STEELERS BY 7

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2008

CLEVELAND (NL) Houston 12:00 PM
The Browns face a short week after the Monday night game but they
catch a fading Texans squad, losers of three straight. Houston led
almost the entire way last week but once again fell victim to a late Colts
rally. The Browns should be able to move the ball in this match-up but
stopping a highly productive Texans offense might be a problem.
Houston is averaging 370 yards per game and the Browns are hard to
trust as favorites. TEXANS BY 3

Buffalo (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chiefs have become a serious threat despite just one win on the
season. QB Thigpen has greatly improved the offense and Kansas City
has covered in three of the last four games. Buffalo faced a Monday
night game on the heels of a three- game losing streak and the Bills need
to get some momentum to even consider the playoffs as four of the next
five games are away from home. Look for the Chiefs to give a solid effort
but Kansas City has not been able to close games out. BILLS BY 7

TENNESSEE (-6) New York Jets (40) 12:00 PM
The Titans moved to 10-0 and the last four teams to reach 10-0 also
made it to 11-0. The Titans have needed strong second halves in recent
games for wins but this team appears designed to win close games and
to take over in the 4th quarter. The Jets have won six of the last seven
games to take over the AFC East lead but the schedule has been
extremely light. This could be a wake-up call for a Jets squad that has
caught a lot of breaks. TITANS BY 10

New England (-1) MIAMI (42) 12:00 PM
The Patriots could not pull out a win last week and all of a sudden Miami
is tied with New England at 6-4. The Patriots were soundly defeated in
the first meeting between these teams and Miami has been very
unimpressive in narrow wins against bad teams in recent weeks. New
England has not lost consecutive games all season long and Miami is
just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 home games with a very limited home field
edge. Miami has an easy schedule ahead and could still make a playoff
push the Patriots tend to deliver in these types of games. PATS BY 13

DALLAS (NL) San Francisco 12:00 PM
The Cowboys came up with a huge win last week in a make-or-break
contest while San Francisco has also shown much more fight the past
two weeks. Dallas is 4-0 S/U at home this season and four of the next
five games are at home so Dallas can get back on track in the wild card
chase. San Francisco was out-gained last week despite the convincing
scoring margin and turnovers continue to be a big problem even after
the QB change. Look for Dallas to deliver. COWBOYS BY 14

Tampa Bay (-9) DETROIT (41) 12:00 PM
0-16 is starting to look more real for the Lions although Detroit has
covered in four of the past six games. The Lions continue to find ways to
lose and four turnovers were added in last week’s loss. Detroit is
allowing 30.8 points per game while Tampa Bay allows just 16 points per
game. Tampa Bay has lost three of five road games this year but the
Lions are not going to have much support or motivation at home as this
dreadful season continues. BUCS BY 14

BALTIMORE (-1) Philadelphia (39) 12:00 PM
The league’s best run defense heading into last week was destroyed on
the ground in an ugly loss last week. The Ravens made a comeback
charge and moved the ball effectively but an interception for a
touchdown killed any chances. The Baltimore offense has been more
productive than most realize and the Ravens played five of the last six
on the road. Philadelphia’s season may have crashed with last week’s
tie and the Ravens can bounce back. RAVENS BY 6

Chicago (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Bears had one of the top run defenses in the league heading into
last week and had just shut Tennessee’s excellent ground game but one
of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, Green Bay exploded for 200
yards. St. Louis has had no success without RB Jackson this season
and the Rams have now lost four in a row, equaling the losing streak to
start the season Chicago needs to rebound after back-to-back losses
and the division title up for grabs. Look for the Bears to bounce back and
pick up a key win against Coach Smith’s old team. BEARS BY 10

JACKSONVILLE (-1) Minnesota (39) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars poured a lot into last week’s game and played great early
but it will be a tough loss to bounce back from. Jacksonville has
essentially eliminated itself from playoff contention and with the injuries
on the lines this will be a tough match-up against a physical Minnesota
team. The Vikings have not had great success on the road the running
game should provide an edge in this game. Minnesota is one of the top
rushing teams in the league as well as one of the toughest defenses
against the run. VIKINGS BY 6

ATLANTA (-1) Carolina (42½) 3:15 PM
The Falcons came up short in a winnable home game last week and one
loss changes the tone for the rising team. Carolina has not been terribly
impressive of late but the Panthers have now won four consecutive
games. Both Carolina losses came on the road this season and this will
be a revenge game for the Falcons after losing earlier this year in
Charlotte. Carolina’s pass defense has been very good but stopping
Atlanta’s running game may be difficult. FALCONS BY 4

DENVER (-10) Oakland (42½) 3:05 PM
The Broncos have been upset winners the past two weeks and Denver
at 6-4 is in a commanding position in the AFC West with a two game
lead over the Chargers. Denver has been terrible defensively but the
offense has been able to carry the team and deliver late game
performances. Oakland has played respectable defense in recent weeks
and look to redeem the opening week loss. BRONCOS BY 6

Washington (NL) SEATTLE 3:15 PM
The Redskins failed in last week’s big game and now must travel clear
across the country. These teams met in the playoffs last year at this
stadium but the fortunes for the Seahawks have changed drastically this
year. QB Hasselbeck’s return was not a success as Seattle continued to
have turnover problems and Washington is capable of a revenge effort
to snap a two-game losing streak. Washington can overcome the long
travel having gone 3-1 on the road. WASHINGTON BY 10

New York Giants (-3½) ARIZONA (48½) 3:15 PM
The Giants delivered another impressive win last week and have taken
complete control of the NFC. Arizona owns an even larger division lead
and if the Cardinals want to legitimize themselves this is the opportunity.
Arizona has not lost at home this season and the Cardinals are 6-2 in
the last eight games as home underdogs. The Giants are tough to go
against right now even facing long travel. Arizona has struggled the last
two weeks and makes far more mistakes. GIANTS BY 7

SAN DIEGO (-3) Indianapolis (50½) 7:15 PM
Many expected these teams to be Super Bowl threats but both teams
will be fighting for their playoff lives in the coming weeks. San Diego
upset Indianapolis in the playoffs last season and this will be a key game
for the Colts, who have quietly won three straight games. San Diego has
struggled defensively, allowing nearly 23 points per game and the Colts
are starting to show improvement on defense. The Chargers have good
numbers at home but continue to be overvalued. COLTS BY 3

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Green Bay (52½) 7:35 PM
The Packers had a great game plan last week and finally were able to
run the ball. Green Bay has five losses but all came against teams that
are .500 or better. The Saints have not won consecutive games all
season long but this will be the first home since mid-October for New
Orleans. The Saints have not had success in the home favorite role
Green Bay ’s defense continues to make big plays. A lot of points could
be scored here and the dog makes sense. PACKERS BY 4

Power Sweep

4* Purdue 44-20
3* Notre Dame 41-10
3* Ohio + 27 (+) - 20
2* UNLV 45-21
2* Ohio St. 34-6
2* Miss. + 30 (+) - 20
Underdog Tenn + 3 16-13

4* Tenn 30-20
3* New England 28-14
2* Minn 24-20
2* Arizona + 28 (+) - 21

3* Texans Over 48
3* Jets Over 40
3* Bears Over 44
2* Bills Over 44
2* Skins Under 43

Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1--UTAH over Byu 38-17
1--RICE over Marshall 45-17
2--MEMPHIS over ucf 41-17
3--TCU over Air Force 45-20
3--nc state (+) over NORTH CAROLINA 24-26
4--TULSA over Tulane 66-13
5--Texas Tech (+) over OKLAHOMA 48-45
5--VIRGINIA TECH over Duke 34-7

Ball State 34 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 20 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Perfect & 14th
ranked Cards just keep on doing it, behind Davis' leadership (20/6), & running of
Lewis (1,273 yds). Chips in off blowing a 24-pt lead, before prevailing in OT,
despite 241-80 RY edge. LeFevour & Co provide quality opposition, but BSt call.

THURSDAY
Miami-Florida 24 - GEORGIA TECH 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- No breathing room in
'Cane games, with 6 of last 7 decided by TD or less. Now in atop ACC Coastal,
after holding Va & VaTech to 77 & 78 RYs, & in possession of land's 13th best "D".
Also note visitor is 7-1 ATS in UM games by 64 pts. Tech: 2,079-1,021 RY edge
in lined games, but only covers since 10/4 have come by 2 & ½ pts (-35½ last 4).

FRIDAY
Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 23 - (7:00) -- Pair of 2-8 squads. Rockets covered in
final 3:42 LW, but 4 straight losses, & they've allowed >30 pts 15 times since
LY. 'Hawks stayed with BallSt until late going, which pushed dog edge in MU
games to 17-5 ATS. Can't run (#116) but QB Raudabauch may provide edge.

Buffalo 31- BOWLING GREEN 24 - (7:00) -- Balance! Check 224 RYs, 252
PYs in Bulls' OT win at Akron. UB: 33 ppg last 5 behind Willy (18/4) & Starks
(164 RYpg last 2). Check 17½ minute edge vs Zips. BG can't run, nor contain
the run, so it's up to Sheehan, who had 2 TD passes yr ago. Not enough now.

Fresno State 26 - SAN JOSE STATE 23 - (9:30 - ESPN2) -- Impossible to step
out with either squad. Bulldogs bowl eligible, despite 9 straight ATS losses,
allowing 30 ppg in those 9. But Spartans an astounding 550-7 RY deficit last
2 wks, with QB Reed their only "O". Are 0-4 ATS lately, by 57 pts. We pass.

SATURDAY
TEMPLE 31 - Eastern Michigan 21 - (1:00) -- Three fumbles killed Owls in tite
41-38 loss to Kent. Ten TOs in their last 3 losses, & have allowed 622 RYs last
2 games, after holding previous 4 foes to 57 RYpg. Opposite for EM, which
has decent run "D" last 2, but mauled prior to that. Plus 24 pts ATS on MAC rd.

RUTGERS 48 - Army 24 - (12:00) -- From 1-5 start to 5-5 currently for smoking
Scarlets, who've covered 6 straight, the last 3 by 75 pts, behind 12 Teel TD
throws. But Cadets also profitable, with 6-1 ATS run, by 89½ pts, with Mooney
motoring for 994 RYs last 6. But Army was massacred yr ago (Wise Points).

Illinois 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23 - (3:30) -- Illini could become 1st team since
'65 (Michigan) to follow Rose Bowl campaign with losing record. Rank 15th on
"O", but just not doing it. 'Cats 8-3 SU, but in off 127 & 122 RY deficits. Note
chalk covering by 15, 18, & 23 pts in NW BigTen hosters TY. Just not involved.

CINCINNATI 31 - Pittsburgh 30 - (7:00) -- We rarely stray from the dog when
Pitt takes the field (21-5 ATS), so why not another? Only 39 RYs for McCoy vs
L'Ville (5 takeaways), but note 762 yds previous 5, & Pitt at 35.5 ppg last 6. UC
in control of BigEast & BCS destiny, but still a bit iffy, overland. Call this tight.

WAKE FOREST 17 - Boston College 15 - (3:30) -- Just 11 ppg for Deacons in
5 of last 7 outings. Not much, overland (100 RYs in all 10
games, with Harrell now at a stunning 36/5. Sooners? Try 51 ppg in their last
11 outings (58 ppg last 4). Try Bradford at a matching 38/6. And try balanced
328 RYs, 325 PYs in last outing. But also allowing 34 ppg last 5 games. Tech!

PENN STATE 41 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- A win here, & the Lions are Big
10 champs. Have a combined pt edge of 433-131 thus far, behind superbly
balanced "O", & 5th ranked "D". Let us down with 1st-half walk-thru vs Indy,
but focused here. Spartans need it for share of title, but revenge rears head.

VIRGINIA 24 - Clemson 22 - (12:00) -- All the earmarks of a normal ACC nailbiter,
with neither anything special (both 5-5 SU). Cavs have been held under 18 pts
6 times this year, but are +75½ pts ATS in last 6 outings. Tigers are in off rare
impressive showing (326 PYs), but running game still a mystery. To the wire.

TCU 45 - Air Force 20 - (3:30) -- Rested Frogs were held scoreless in final 51:16
in 13-10 loss at Utah, despite 416-275 yd edge. Rolled, 41-7, off first setback,
& stand at +122½ pts ATS in last 15 games. 'Force had 5-game run snapped
by BYU, despite 323 RYs (28-10 2nd half deficit). But just 142 RYs in last RG.

Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 23 - (3:30) -- Card got cover vs USC on 18-yd pass
on final play, after Carroll "iced" would-be FG attempt. Ouch! Stanford stats
well (234 RYpg last 8, behind Gerhart), & just 11 pts from 9-0 ATS run. Bears:
173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits last 2 games (13, 11 FDs). Visiting series again.

Louisiana Tech 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24 - (4:00) -- Three straight wins for
Bulldogs, who came from 38-35 deficit, for 45-38 win over UtahSt. Check a
697-257 RY edge for Tech in last 3 games. Ags minus 9 RYs LW, & 21 RYpg
last 5 outings. Are minus 126½ ATS 10 of last 12, & Holbrook is in off 5 sacks.

BOISE STATE 41 - Nevada 38 - (4:00) -- Bucking either squad in this situation is
frightening. Boise +59 pts ATS away TY, (31 unanswered pts to wind up LW),
but 'Pack has >40 pts 7 times already, & has a 2,418-368 RY edge in its last 7
games, with Kaepernick in off 147 RY, 192 PY effort, & 388 Tuau RYs last 2.

East Carolina 23 - UAB 20 - (7:00) -- Blazers latest to take advantage of Tulane
& its injuries, in 41-24 win. But note ranking just 117th on "D" before that one,
& allowing 33 ppg in last 15 lined games. Pirates: just 2 TDs in their last 3
games. Can't run, but a decent "D". Dog is 9-2 ATS in ECU games by 118 pts.

HOUSTON 57 - Utep 44 - (3:30) -- Wow! Coogs' 70-30 rout of Tulsa made many
fans stand up & take notice, but their "O" has been super all yr. Check 3,492
yds in last 6 games, with Keenum's 6 TDs LW, upping his total for the year to
35/9. Miner QB Vittatoe: 25 TD passes last 7 tilts, & Utep +33 pts ATS last 2.

UTAH 38 - Byu 17 - (6:00) -- Win here nails down MWC title for Utes. No punts
in 63-14 rout of SDSt, with 5 Johnson TD passes in 1st half. Series is noted for
extremely tight games, but TCU comparison can't be dismissed. Coog QB Hall
now at 34/8, but check BYU allowing 33 ppg in last 3 RGs. Throw in revenge.

Iowa 27 - MINNESOTA 20 - (7:00) -- Three straight losses for Gophs, with a 317
RY deficit in those 3, altho they did put it to us in tight loss to Wisc (Weber: 3
TD passes). Are 0-2 ATS at home lately, by 44½ pts. Hawks in off 13-pt ATS
loss, despite 248-86 RY edge. Greene (1,585 RYs, 6.2 ypr) is the difference.

Oregon State 24 - ARIZONA 22 - (7:00) -- Two more wins for Beavs, & RoseBowl
is theirs for 1st time since '64. OSt: allowing 73 RYpg last 5 games; held Cal to
11 FDs; & Jacquizz at 1,233 RYs. And try +108 pts ATS last 7 games. 'Zona
not at its best in this type setup (Wise Points), but note 30 FDs & 527 yds at
Oregon, while ranking 14th in the land, defensively. But the Beavs own series.

West Virginia 23 - LOUISVILLE 20 - (12:00) -- Bye week came at right time for
Mounties, who've averaged just 4.2 & 2.3 ypr in their last 2 outings. Cards at
5-5, with nation's 7th ranked run "D" (only Syracuse ran on 'em). The host is
plus 57½ pts ATS in 'Ville's last 5 games, & Cards well remember LY's wrencher.

MEMPHIS 41 - Central Florida 17 - (2:00) -- Two straight wins have Tigs at 5-5,
so bowls are beckoning. Have huge score to settle, & with 306, 285 RYs last 2
(Steele: 301 yds), no time like the present, as Knights field worst "O" in land.
Four takeaways in CF's win over Marshall, but just 55 RYpg previous 4 games.

Unlv 38 - SAN DIEGO STATE 10 - (8:00) -- Season mercifully comes to close for
hapless Aztecs, who stand at 1-10 SU, with a 323-94 pt deficit in their last 7
games, while ranking 108th on "O" & 112th on "D". Vegas needs it for .500
campaign, & has topped 26 pts 7 of last 8 (TCU). Despite Rebs' lousy rd log.

LSU 30 - Mississippi 27 - (3:30) -- Bengals: 4 drainers in previous 5 games,
including LW's overcoming of a 31-3 deficit in the 3rd. Solid rush "D", but just
4-14 ATS lately, with visitor 21-7 ATS in LSU tilts. Rebs have been in every
game, & in off 59-0 blasting of Monroe (350 RYs, 3 Snead TDs). Rebels yell!

HAWAII 44 - Idaho 14 - (11:05) -- First of 3 HGs to wind up for now 5-5 'Bows.
Have allowed 31, 30, & 30 pts last 3 outings, but should take quick command
of a Vandal squad which has allowed 50 ppg in its 5 RGs to date. Sure, Idaho
has 215 or more RYs in 3 of its last 5 tilts, but 31-0 deficit windup LW says it all.

SUNDAY
SOUTH FLORIDA 27 - Connecticut 22 - (8:00) -- Amazingly, Bull QB Grothe
has tossed no less than 8 INTs in his last 3 games (all upset losses). Just 2
covers for SFla, which is minus 145 pts ATS in 9 of its last 10 games. UConn
came from a 5-0 TO deficit, to a 3-0 TO edge, & Brown now at 1,537 RYs. Tight.

TUESDAY
BALL STATE 37 - Western Michigan 24 - (8:00) -- Assuming Cards take CMich,
they will stand at a perfect 11-0 here. Plus 81½ pt ATS for the season, & at 37
ppg in their last 12 contests. WMich at 9 wins for just 3rd time its history, with
Hiller now at 33/6, & note covering last RG by 14½. But BSt keeps it going.

Navy 33 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Nearly a spectacular
comeback win for Mids at NoDame, but no cigar, & note only 11 FDs, along
with 100-yd deficit. Have allowed >26 pts 15 times since LY. NIU 3-0 ATS vs
non-MAC schools, but formerly sturdy "D" has allowed 39 ppg last 2 contests.

ADDED GAMES
Fla Atlantic 23 - ARKANSAS ST 20
FLA INTERN'L 27 - La-Monroe 24
MID TENN ST 46 - North Texas 10
TROY 23 - La-Lafayette 17

Pointwise

NEW YORK GIANTS over Arizona RATING: 3
OAKLAND over Denver RATING: 4
BALTIMORE over Philadelphia RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
TENNESSEE over New York Jets RATING: 5

THURSDAY
PITTSBURGH 22 - Cincinnati 17 - (8:15) -- Third straight HG for Pitt, which has
not exactly excelled as host. As a matter of fact, the visitor is on a 7-0 ATS run in
Steeler games. Parker is back (117 RYs), & check nearly 200-yd edge over the
Chargers, despite 1-pt win, in last 0:11. And no picks for Ben, after 8 in previous
3 wks. Bengals took Philly into OT, after missing winning 47-yd FG in final 0:08.
But just 1.9 ypr for league's 30th ranked run "O". Cincy 21-11 ATS away lately,
& 7-3 ATS on division road, but 2-18 ATS away vs .700> foes. Mild revenge call.

SUNDAY
CLEVELAND 27 - Houston 26 - (1:00) -- Another tough loss for the Texans,
after leading the Colts halfway thru the 3rd. Rosenfels has thrown for 5 INTs
the past 2 weeks, but bright spot has to be Slaton, who ran for 156 yds vs Indy
(11.1 ypr). That 33-27 loss, now has Houston allowing an average of 31.6 ppg
in its last 8 RGs. Browns are caught in a Buffalo(Monday)/Indy sandwich, &
Cleveland, thus far, has lost outright, in its first 2 chalk roles, with the dog 6-0
ATS in Brown games. Houston's 5th ranked "O" vs Cleveland's 27th. A take.

KANSAS CITY 23 - Buffalo 20 - (1:00) -- Six straight losses for the Chiefs, altho
Thigpen is a solid 5/1 the past 2 weeks. And RB Johnson is back in the fold,
even if he did fumble it twice vs the Saints. KC ranks 32nd & last in containing
the run, but allowed a respectable 103 RYs in loss to the Saints, & the Bills
rank a lowly 28th in overland production. Buffalo has topped 17 pts in just 1 of
its last 5 games, while the Chiefs have allowed 34, 30, & 30 pts in non-division
HGs so far. KC is 38-15 ATS as a HD, thus the Chiefs are worth a shot here.

TENNESSEE 27 - New York Jets 17 - (1:00) -- Every week, we write it, so why
not again? "The Titans just keep on doing it." Now 10-0 (only the 9th team in
history of NFL to do that), after Collins clicked on 13-yd, 56-yd, & 38-yd TDs in
the 2nd half vs Jacksonville, turning a 14-3 deficit, into a 24-14 win. Titans are
8-1-1 ATS by 83 pts, & have held 13 of their last 14 foes under 18 pts. NY in
off epic upset of Pats, & have topped 25 pts in 7 of last 8 games. Something
has to give. Jets are 5-13 ATS on the non-division road. Titans keep it going.

New England 24 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Four straight wins for the Dolphins, for
1st time in 2 years. Just a 2-pt win over the Raiders, but note a 200-yd edge,
with another solid showing from Chad (16-of-22). So that one pushed the dog
edge in Miami games to 8-0, by 106½ pts. Catching the Pats off a loss isn't the
healthiest of propositions, as NewEngland has covered all 3 such setups this
year, & 22-6 ATS the past several seasons. Check 511 yds in loss to the Jets,
as Cassel threw for 400 yds & 3 TDs. Revenge for that 38-13 Sept shocker.

DALLAS 27 - San Francisco 22 - (1:00) -- The return of Tony Romo proved to
be a success, in Cowboys' win over the 'Skins, altho he hardly set the world on
fire with his 198 PYs & 2 INTs (1 TD). But he did click on the winning TD, a 25-
yd fling to Bennett. And that Dallas "D" did its part, allowing only 14 FDs. The
Niners are in off scoring TDs in their first 5 possessions, in 35-16 rout of the
Rams, with Hill a nice 15-of-20 (2/0), & Gore posting 106 RYs. Can't trust
Niner "D", but they stayed within 5 pts of smoking Cards in their last road affair.

Tampa Bay 20 - DETROIT 17 - (1:00) -- Lions now on a 1-17 SU slide, but have
covered 4 of their last 6. Stayed with the Panthers, but allowed 264 RYs (8.3
ypr), in that 31-22 setback. However, the visitor is on a 7-0 ATS run in Detroit
games, with the Lions losing their 4 HGs to date by 48-25, 34-7, 25-17, 38-14
scores. But the Bucs needed OT to take KC, 2 weeks back, & are 4-22 ATS
on the non-division road, as well as 0-15 ATS on the road off non-division win.

BALTIMORE 23 - Philadelphia 17 - (1:00) -- OT tie for Eagles vs Cincy, with
McNabb a terrible 28-of-58 with 3 INTs & a fumble. But Philly "D" held Bengals
to 1.9 ypr. Ravens couldn't stay with the Giants, allowing 200 RYs (207) for
first time since Oct of '97. Have held 6 foes under 14 pts, & chance to do it in
front of home folks, following 3 straight RGs. Ravens 31-12 ATS non-division
hosts, while Philly is 11-17 ATS on the AFC road. Host bounceback call here.

Chicago 31 - ST LOUIS 16 - (1:00) -- Third dome game for the Bears this year.
Were taken apart at GreenBay LW, with a 200-83 RY deficit, in that 37-3 loss,
after entering with NFL's 4th ranked rushing "D" (had held 5 foes below 55 RYs
TY, including allowing just 20 to the perfect Titans the previous wk). Rams a
farce of late. Allowed TDs on SanFran's first 5 possessions, & have a 75-3
first half deficit the past 2 wks. Allowing >30 pts 10 of last 13 games, & in off
34-13, 47-3, 35-16 losses. Bear HC Smith: 6-1 ATS off pair of SU/ATS losses.

JACKSONVILLE 30 - Minnesota 24 - (1:00) -- Second consecutive Florida RG
for the Vikings, who couldn't stay with the Bucs, in that 363-210 yd deficit loss.
Thus far Minny has allowed 29.6 ppg when taking to the road, & is 2-15 ATS as
a RD vs a foe off a SU/ATS loss, as well as a 10-20 ATS as a non-division RD.
Dog was 11-0-1 ATS in Jag game, before past 2 wks, so worm may be turning.
If that is the case, note the 'Ville as a 14-5 ATS chalk vs the NFC, as well as an
11-5 HF of less than 4 pts. Jag call, despite Peterson's 277 RYs last 2 weeks.

ATLANTA 24 - Carolina 20 - (1:00) -- Revenge play for the Falcons, who are 2
games back of the Panthers, after dropping the winning TD pass in the final
1:06 vs the Broncos. But still a 138-99 pt home edge for Atlanta, with the host
covering 8 of their last 11 games. Check Carolina, overland LW: Stewart &
Williams combining for 250 yds (8.7 & 8.6 ypr, respectively). But Delhomme in
stupor, with just 17-of-46 for meager 170 yds & 4 INTs past 2 wks. Falcons
18-8 ATS as a division chalk, taking the Saints, 34-20, in that lone setup so far.

DENVER 23 - Oakland 20 - (4:05) -- Broncos enjoy 2-game edge in AFC West,
despite owning the 4th worst "D" in the NFL. But also possess 2nd best "O",
with Cutler (19/11) leading the way. Check their last 5 wins: by 1, 2, 3, 4, & 4
pts. But a win is a win. The Raiders are a struggling lot, managing a mere 10
ppg in their last 7 outings, allowing 1,070 RYs in their last 5 games, & in off a
382-186 yd deficit. But the Broncos are just 1-7 ATS as division chalks, & are
3-12 ATS Nov hosts off a SU win, vs an avenging opponent. Raiders the play.

Washington 27 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:15) -- Jim Zorn returns to Seattle. And,
apparently, that's where the 'Skins want to be. How about the visitor covering
the last 7 games involving Washington. Just 92 & 60 RYs the past 2 wks for
the 'Skins, who ranked 4th best, overland. Things should improve here, with
the Seahawks still struggling, despite the return of Hasselbeck LW (3 INTs).
Check a 458-196 yd deficit vs the Cards. 'Skins have bit of a score to settle
here, after their 35-14 loss in LY's playoffs, & their road success the way to go.

New York Giants 30 - ARIZONA 20 - (4:15) -- Sure, this is a huge HG for the
Cards, but the Giants sure feel cozy in this playground, where they took the
measure of the Patriots in LY's Super Bowl. Cards continue to shine. Are at 31
ppg in their last 18 outings, & in off a 458-196 yd edge. Warner: NFL's highest
rated QB (20/7), etc, etc. But now must face his old squad, which has covered
14-of-16, & in off demolition of quality Raven "D" (207 RYs). Sure, the Cards
are +47½ pts ATS as non-division hosts this year, but NY altogether different.

Indianapolis 26 - SAN DIEGO 23 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Time for a bit of a payback,
after the Chargers swept the Colts a year ago, including that 28-24 upset in the
playoffs. But a closer look shows Indy with FD edges of 25-11 & 29-20, in
those battles. Colts in off season-high 154 RYs (were at 69 ypg), with 24 pts in
the 2nd half vs Houston. Still 4 back of the Titans. Chargers in off losing to Pitt
in final 0:11, managing just 66 RYs & 218 TYs, so not there yet. SanDiego is
just 6-13 ATS as a HF of <4 pts. We call for the minor upset, but not involved.

MONDAY
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Green Bay 26 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- First HG for the Saints
since Oct 12th. Bring top-ranked "O" into this one, but just a 5-5 record, as their
overland game ranks 26th, & their "D" ranks 24th. Check Brees with 1,027 PYs
last 3 outings, but Saints being outrushed in their last 4 games. The Pack has
covered 5 straight, & in off snapping 2-game SU slide (3 & 1 pt losses), with that
37-3 wipeout of the Bears. Rodgers: 22-of-30, & 200 RYs, to boot (Grant: 145).
The Packers are on a 15-5 ATS road run, while the Saints are 9-18 ATS at home,
off a SU/ATS win. The spread is truly minuscule, but we will call this even closer.

2-MIN HCAP Week 14

Ball St 5-0 aft Miami-Oh... 4-1 as conf favs 14 < pts... 3-1 LRG... 6-2 Game Eleven... 0-4 bef W Michigan... 1-5 favs 14 < w/ con rev

C MICHIGAN SERIES: 3-0 L3... 4-0 HD's off BB RG... 6-2 aft N Illinois... 3-1 as weekday dogs... 1-8 LHG

SAT NOV. 22nd

Pittsburgh SERIES: 4-0 L4... 3-1 Game Ten... 3-1 as con RD's 5 < pts... 1-4 vs con opp w/ rev... 1-4 aft Louisville... 3-7 w/ rest

CINCINNATI 5-0-1 in 1st of BB HG... 4-1 aft Louisville... 4-1 con HF's 6 < pts... 9-3 favs w/ con rev... 5-2 Game Eleven

Boston Coll 6-1 in 2nd of BB RG... 5-1 con RD's 7 < pts... 5-1 LRG... 5-1 Game Eleven... 1-6 vs con opp w/ rev

W FOREST SERIES: 4-1 L5... 5-0 as con HF's 7 pts... 4-1 dogs in LRG... 5-2 A aft N'Western... 7-3 vs .700 > con opp

OHIO ST SERIES: 3-1 L4... 6-0 H vs < .400 con opp... 5-0 aft Illinois... 7-2 off BB RG... 1-6 H vs con opp w/ rev... 1-3 Game Twelve

Florida St SERIES: 1-3 L4... 1-5 Game Eleven... 2-6 LRG... 2-6 bef Florida

MARYLAND 12-4 as con HD's 7 pts... 6-2 vs .700 > con opp... 0-4 LRG... 0-4 aft Wake Forest... 1-5 A vs con opp w/ rev

N CAROLINA SERIES: 4-1 L5... 9-2 Game Eleven... 1-4 as DD con HF's... 1-4 aft Maryland... 2-6 LHG... 3-7 favs w/ con rev

Tulane 6-0 A Game Eleven... 3-1 bef Memphis... 1-6 as con dogs 14 > pts... 1-5 A w/ con rev... 2-6 vs .800 > con opp

TULSA 4-1 H vs con opp w/ rev... 6-2 favs 17 > pts... 2-10 favs off BB RG... 1-3 Game Eleven... 1-3 aft Houston

Texas Tech 5-2 dogs vs con opp w/ rev... 0-3 Game Eleven... 2-7 off SU con W 28 > pts... 2-5 A w/ rest

OKLAHOMA 3-0 LHG... 6-1 H w/ con rev... 4-1 aft RG vs Okla St... 0-3 as HF's 7 pts

Michigan St 3-1 Game Twelve... 5-2 dogs off con home W 14 < pts... 1-6 aft Purdue... 1-5 w/ rest... 2-6 LRG... 3-8 A vs con opp w/ rev

PENN ST SERIES: 4-1 L5 H... 5-1 vs rested opp... 4-1 con HF's 15 pts... 1-6 aft BYU... 1-4 off BB HG... 1-3 Game Twelve

TCU SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 3-0 L3 A... 3-0 aft Utah... 4-1 LHG... 4-1 H w/ con rev... 4-1 favs w/ rest... 8-2 off weekday gm... 2-7 off SU con L 4 pts... 3-1 Game Twelve... 2-5 A vs con opp w/ rev

CALIFORNIA SERIES: 5-2 L7... 5-1 favs w/ con rev... 1-9 Game Eleven... 1-5 bef Washington... 1-5 off BB SU L... 3-9 as DD con favs

Boise St SERIES: 7-1 L8 / 3-0 L3 A... 8-1 Game Eleven... 4-1 aft Idaho... 4-1 as RF's 14 < pts... 7-2 LRG... 7-3 favs 15 < pts vs con opp w/ rev

NEVADA 3-0 aft San Jose St... 14-2 in 2nd of BB HG... 4-1 dogs w/ con rev... 5-2 Game Eleven

BYU 5-0 aft Air Force... 5-1 con dogs 5 pts... 5-2 Game Twelve

Mississippi SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 6-0 L6 A... 5-0 A off BB HG... 5-1 LRG... 4-1 vs con off DD SU non con W... 7-3 Game Eleven

LSU 0-4 LHG... 1-15 L16 H vs con opp... 1-5 Game Eleven... 1-4-1 w/ rest... 2-6 vs con opp w/ rev

NFL 2-Minute Handicap

Thursday, Nov.20th

Cincinnati 9-0 Game Eleven... 5-0 RD's bef Ravens... 4-1 Thursdays... 4-18 A vs .700 > opp (2-0 this year)

PITTSBURGH SERIES: 5-1 L6 (1-0 this year)... 1-8 DD fav vs opp w/revenge (0-4 vs div)... 1-8 Game Eleven

Sunday, Nov.23rd

Houston 7-0 dogs 4 > pts off SU loss w/rev vs < .500 opp... 6-1 off BB SU losses vs opp off dog game... 12-3 2nd BB RG's (1-1 this year)... NOV: 12-4 < .500 off SU loss (1-1 this year)... 0-3 Game Eleven... KUBIAK: 1-8 A w/rev (1-1 this year)

CLEVELAND Crennel: 10-3 vs opp off BB L's ... 1-5 O/U Game Eleven

Buffalo SERIES: 6-2 L8... 1-8 off BB SU losses (last as favs) vs opp w/rev... 1-4 Game Eleven

KANSAS CITY 0-5 dogs > 1 pt off div vs opp off div... 16 -3 .500 > 2nd BB RG's vs opp off A... 14-3 dogs off SU dog win vs opp off BB SU wins... 0-7 Game Eleven... 0-5 dogs 7 5 & 3 pts vs opp off SU win 10 div opp off BB SU wins... 2-9 Game Eleven... BELICHICK: 11-0 dog off SU loss & allowed 24 > pts w/Pats... BELICHICK: 11-2 A off SUATS loss vs .500 > opp

MIAMI SERIES: 3-1 L4 (1-0 this year)... 4-0 Game Eleven... SU winner 1st Patriots game is 1-7 2nd game... NOV: 3-13 off non div vs div opp

San Francisco NOV: 6-1 off DD SUATS win... 0-7 dogs 7 > pts off DD SUATS win... 0-5 A vs non div opp off div game... 0-4 dogs 4 > pts off DD ATS win wrev vs .500 > opp... 3-1 OVER Game Eleven

DALLAS NOV: 8-1 H off div vs opp w//rev... 6-1 Game Eleven... NOV: 13-2 HF's vs non div opp

BALTIMORE NOV: 10-1 .500 > H off non div... 1-3 Game Eleven

Chicago SERIES: 3-0 L3... 4-0 off BB SU losses... 0-6 A vs off SU NFC loss vs AFC opp w/rev... 2-14 RD's vs opp off SUASTS loss

JACKSONVILLE 11-0 Game Eight > off DD SUATS loss... NOV: 9-0 favs vs .500 > opp... 11-1 vs .500 > opp off DD SU loss... 0-5 HF's vs opp in 2nd BB RG's... 7-3 OVER Game Eleven

Carolina 9-0 dogs 1st BB RG's... 5-0 vs opp off SU fav loss w/rev... 13-1 A off NFC vs opp off SU fav loss... 0-4 UNDER Game Eleven

ATLANTA SERIES: 0-4 L4 H... 1-4 Game Eleven

Oakland SERIES: 3-1 L4 A... 10-1 Game Eleven... NOV: 7-1 A w/rev vs opp off SUATS win

DENVER 8-0 .500 > H off BB A vs pts off SU dog win... 0-6 DD favs off BB SUATS wins vs opp w/rev... 1-10 off BB SUATS wins vs < .500 opp... 1-10 off SU dog win vs div opp... 1-8 off BB SUATS wins vs opp (1-1 this year)

NY GIANTS 14-4 A when O/U line 42 > pts (2-1 this year)... 1-8 Game Eleven... NOV: 2-15 off non div vs opp off SUATS win... NOV: 2-13 vs opp off DD SU win... 2-9 bef Redskins

ARIZONA SERIES: 3-1 L4... 7-0 H vs opp off DD SU win (1-0 this year)... 5-0 H vs opp off BB SUATS wins... 0-10 .500 > H w/rev off BB div games... NOV: 0-6 .500 > H (0-1 this year)... 2-8 .500 > off div game (1-1 this year)... 8-2 OVER Game Eleven

Indianapolis 6-0 w/rev vs off SU win w/rev vs non div opp... 5-0 dogs 3 > pts vs NFC South opp... NOV: 2-11 A off DD SU win... 3-1 OVER Game Eleven

NEW ORLEANS 4-0 Game Eleven... 1-8 H off DD SU AFC win... 1-5 H Mondays

CKO

11* CONNECTICUT over *South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20
(Sunday, November 23)

Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher
in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is 15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start, disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just 1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).

10* ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13

Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices
for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.
And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.
ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305 sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.major foes since ‘05.

10* *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10

The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon
emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in last 2 games...really!).

10* BYU over *Utah
Late Score Forecast:
BYU 27 - *Utah 24

Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make
their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten
meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance
on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a win by the 10-1 Cougars.

10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19
(Sunday, November 23)

Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last
Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent
much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have
the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1
interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games

TOTALS:

UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;

Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.

NINE-RATED GAMES:

CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring Steelers...

RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover five straight...

PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...

MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...

HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest, while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 182-129. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 30 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS INCLUDING Texas Tech and Michigan this year to this incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week

Tennessee (+3') over VANDERBILT

Vandy ended a 22 gm series win streak by the Vols in ‘05 & Vandy hasn’t been favored in this series S/’82. LY Vanderbilt led 24-9 mid-3Q before allowing a 16 pt comeback by Tenn and Vandy had a game winning FG bounce off the upright at the end. UT typically has the crowd edge when playing in Nashville, however Vandy just clinched their first bowl trip S/’82 and the Vols are already eliminated from the bowls, so Vandy should have a loud, enthusiastic crowd here. VU CB Moore had 2 int (both set up VU TD’s) and 2 TD rec to lead VU to a 31-24 win over UK LW. QB Nickson started in place of inj’d Adams and had his best passing gm of the year (155 yds, 3 TD). UT is off a bye and needs to regroup as Fulmer announced he wouldn’t be back in ‘09 and they proceeded to lose to WY as a 27 pt HF. Poor QB play has been UT’s downfall all year and don’t be surprised to see 3rd string rFr QB Coleman starting after he threw for 325 yds & 2 TD in UT’s JV gm LW. UT has slight edges on off (#87-95) and def (#10-23) but the Vols may have just enough motivation to overcome Vandy’s momentum in Fulmer's last SEC road game. FORECAST: Tennessee 16 VANDERBILT 13

KEY SELECTIONS

4* PURDUE over Indiana - PU’s all-time win leader Tiller is 9-2 SU in the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket and this is his final game with the Boilers. LY Purdue was down 24-3 but Indy needed a 49 yd FG with :30 left for the 27-24 win. Tiller’s 9 series wins have been by 26 ppg. Both teams are out of bowl contention but hung tough with superior foes LW. QB Painter ret’d for the Boilers and hit 24-30 for 190 yds & 2 TD but threw long on a 27 yd Hail Mary pass as time expired in a 22-17 loss at Iowa. PU actually had a 24-14 FD edge but couldn’t stop RB Greene (outrushed 248-86). Boilers D is better than #’s suggest holding the B10’s top 3 (PSU, OSU & Mich St) to 2 off TD’s or less. Indy has had 16 players miss starts due to inj TY but trailed just 10-7 at HT at PSU. Reality set in during the 2H however as IU managed 1 FD and 36 yds as PSU finished with 23-6 FD & 442-180 yd edges in a 34-7 win. QB Chappell DNP (CS) and Lewis hit just 9-21 for 57 yds with an 0-1 ratio. Hoosiers have lost 3 DB’s for the ssn and are #97 in pass eff D (241, 62%, 15-6 ratio). The Boilers send out Tiller in style. Could we use them as our Big 5H play? FORECAST: PURDUE 44 Indiana 20

3* NOTRE DAME over Syracuse - Irish are 12-2 in home finales with the 2 L’s by a combined 5 pts & the avg W by 23 ppg. Their last meeting with SU was ND’s home finale in ‘05 and the Irish won 34-10 (-34). The Irish are 1-4 ATS as a 20+ pt fav under Weis. SU is 0-3 as a DD dog in their L/3 gms of the ssn getting outscored 85-21. We won a 4H LPS on ND in their misleading 27-21 win over Navy. The Irish had 24-11 FD & 340-242 yd edges and all’d 2 garbage time TD’s with 1:39 left (Nv rec’d 2 onside K’s!). Weis called the plays vs Navy but the Irish still had 5 TO’s for the 3rd time TY (2 str). QB Clausen avg 244 ypg (60%) with an 18-15 ratio. WR’s Tate and Floyd (left 1Q-leg, CS) have combined for 89 rec (16.2) for 12 TD but both were shutout LW. Irish are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS vs teams who currently have a losing record TY. SU is off a 39-14 loss to Conn in which the Orange were outFD’d 16-8 and outgained 329-147. SU QB’s Dantley and Robinson combined to hit just 6-23 for 51 yds with 3 int and they are #112 NCAA in pass ypg & eff TY. RB Brinkley has 1,060 yds (5.2). SU is #112 in our pass eff D (214, 64%, 23-7 ratio). SU HC Robinson has been released (but will coach L/2) while Weis’ seat isn’t getting any cooler despite clinching bowl eligibility and the Irish roll it up here. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 41 Syracuse 10

3* OHIO (+) over Akron - LY Akron was leading 41-31 and scored a TD w/:37 left instead of taking a knee & OU scored on the last play of game. Ohio is fresh off a bye and this is its home finale. We won a rare weekday 3H LPS going against Akron LW in their 4 OT loss to Buffalo which may have cost them a trip to the MAC Championship game. Ohio has the def edge (#77-100) but Akron holds the off edge (#63-107). Against 3 common MAC opp’s Akron is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS but was only outscored by a combined 107-103 while Ohio is 1-2 SU & ATS but outscored by a combined 79-48. A big factor in Ohio’s poor season has been their -10 TO ratio and QB Jackson, who is avg 194 ypg (58%), has a poor 11-11 ratio and was benched after his 2nd int vs BG. HC Solich may go with Jr QB Brandon Jones (PS#77QB) who replaced Jackson vs BG. Ohio’s run game has struggled since losing RB Harden (454 yd, 5.2, 7 gm) as their top remaining rusher is RB Garrett with just 284 (3.4). Akron is led by QB Jacquemain, who is avg 235 ypg (59%) with a 19-11 ratio. RB Kennedy leads with 1,015 (5.9) and has 13 rush TD. UA has been lucky TY but look for Solich’s scrappy Cats to expose a Zips team that is trying to get their elusive 6th win. FORECAST: OHIO 27 (+) Akron

2* Unlv over SAN DIEGO ST - These two comb to avg just 37 ppg in MWC meetings. SDSt had all’d just 241 ypg to LV in 4Y but LY was pounded for 482. SDSt did lead 21-0 at half and won on the road 38-30 (+3). The HT is 5-2 SU/ATS and in ‘06 SDSt won here 21-7 (-9’) with a 277-250 yd edge. LV is off a huge Thurs night win over WY, 22-14. The Rebs battled back from a 14-9 deficit and got an int in the EZ to seal it. LV moved to 2-0 SU/ATS under QB Clausen (Clayton knee, CS) as he has thrown for 341 yds (52%) with a 3-0 ratio as the st’r. RB Summers hasn’t had a 100 yd gm the L/5 but still leads with 734 (4.1). The top WR is Wolfe with 77 (11.6). Once again, SDSt was pounded LW, this time by Utah 63-14 (outgained 520-320). UT was up 49-14 when QB Lindley tossed 2 int, both ret’d for TD’s in a 4pl span. Lindley now avg 228 ypg (55%) with a 14-9 ratio. The top RB is Henderson with 426 (4.2) and WR Brown has 56 rec (9.1). SDSt is being outscored 45-19 and outgained 500-292 at home vs MWC foes but is 11-5 ATS overall at home. LV has the off (#66-114) and D (#97-118) edges & look for the Rebs to become bowl elig in an easy win over a depleted and beaten down SDSt team. FORECAST: Unlv 45 SAN DIEGO ST 21

2* OHIO ST over Michigan - Tressel is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) vs rival UM. LY in the rain the Wolves were held to under 100 yds (91) for the 1st time S/’62 as Beanie Wells rushed for a career high 222 yds in Ann Arbor. OSU has not been a DD fav in the series S/’98 (W) and a dog of 7+ in the series is 7-2. When OSU is fav’d the visitor has covered 11 straight. OSU got revenge for LY’s loss with a 30-20 win at Illinois in which they outrushed the Illini 305-214 and allowed a garbage TD with :42 left. Since PSU, QB Pryor, who famously chose OSU over UM, has accounted for 5 TD’s with 0 TO’s and he actually leads the conf in pass eff in league gms. RB Wells has 957 yds (5.4). OSU is #10 pass eff D (171, 57%, 9-14 ratio). UM has the most losses in program history after their 21-14 loss to NW. The Wolves led 14-7 at the half thanks to a blk’d P TD but couldn’t hang on in the snow as UM played 3 diff QB’s due to ineffectiveness and were down to their 3rd TB (Brown, 115 yds) due to inj’s. UM still has more TO’s lost (28) than off TD’s (27) TY. Wolves allow 128 rush ypg (3.4) which is comparable to OSU’s 115 (3.8) and UM has more sacks (26-21). OSU has big edges all around (#24-70 off, #3-46 D & #2-9 ST) and this is Rod’s last shot at UM’s rival trifecta (0-2 SU & ATS vs ND & MSU) but Tressel won’t let up.
FORECAST: OHIO ST 34 Michigan 6

2* Mississippi (+) over LSU - Mississippi has lost 6 in a row to LSU but 4 of those were decided by 3 pts or less. LY Ole Miss had a 466-396 yd edge and in ‘06 here they lost by 3 in OT (+27, Ole Miss led 20-7 in 4Q!). UM is 9-2 ATS in the series while LSU is 1-14 as an SEC HF (incl 9 straight ATS losses). Nutt is 11-2 as an AD incl 8-0 ATS vs Top 20 tms on the road covering by 14’ ppg with 3 outright upsets incl upsets of #2 Auburn and #1 LSU while at Ark and a near upset of #16 WF and an upset of #4 Florida this year at Ole Miss. This is LSU’s 3rd straight SEC afternoon home gm and LSU is 21-24-3 SU in day gms and 209-59-4 in night gms at home S/’60. LSU is off a come-from-behind win over Troy in which they scored 37 pts (trailed 31-3 late 3Q) in the final 16:26 to escape with a 40-31 win. UM secured their 1st bowl S/‘03 with a dominating 59-0 win over ULM LW. LSU QB Lee has struggled TY avg 182 ypg (54%) with a 14-15 ratio with 6 int ret’d for TD’s, but their top RB Scott has 1,071 rush (6.0). UM QB Snead has avg 198 ypg (54%) with a 17-11 ratio. Both tms beat Aub and lost to Bama (UM covered), but UM pulled the upset of Florida while LSU was crushed by the Gators. LSU has only covered once in the L/7 games and now faces a talented Rebel team led by Nutt who beat a much more talented LSU team LY. FORECAST: Mississippi 30 (+) LSU 20

OTHER GAMES

Thursday November 20th -

Miami, Fl at GEORGIA TECH - Miami’s OC Patrick Nix was the OC at GT from ‘02-‘06. GT has won 3 in a row SU/ATS in the series. LY Miami seemed in control at the half up 7-0 but GT ran for 264 yards (5.3) with most of it in the 2H and won 17-14 (+2) and had the ball at the Miami 10 at the end. UM is 13-1 on Thursday Night. In ACC gms TY, tms that have had the previous week off when their opp’s have not are 8-2 incl UM’s win over VT last Thursday. This could decide the winner of the Coastal Div.

Friday November 23rd -

Miami, Oh at TOLEDO -Times have changed in the MAC as these tms last met in the ‘04 MAC Title gm but are a comb 4-16 (2-10 MAC) TY. In their last trip here, MU ended UT’s 17 gm home winning streak. Miami is off 10 days rest while UT comes in off a 2 gm road trip but this will be the Rockets first HG since HC Amstutz announced he was stepping down. Toledo installed new FieldTurf TY and has not won on it yet and their 4 gm home losing streak (2-2 ATS) is the longest S/‘77-’78. UT covered LW vs an inj-plagued WM off as a 15’ pt AD. They were only outgained 371-358 but lost 27-17. UT has slight edges on both off (#92-109), D (#90-99) and has faced the tougher schedule (#66-93). We won a Tues Marquee on Miami (+19) as they only trailed a ranked Ball St tm 17-16 in the 3Q but lost 31-16 being outgained 484-330. That was despite being without starting QB Belton (CS). He was replaced by QB Raudabaugh who started the first 6 gms before being replaced. Against 3 common opp’s (NI, Mich & Ball St), Toledo is 1-2 SU & ATS but was outscored by a combined 79-20, while Miami is 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS only being outscored 64-35.

Buffalo at BOWLING GREEN - A Buffalo win would give the Bulls at least a share of the MAC East Crown and would put them in the MAC Championship game. However, BG is the only other MAC East tm that controls its own destiny. Buffalo will travel to BG where former HC Hofher is now serving as the QB coach. BG is 3-0 SU in the series but 0-2 ATS as the favorite. In ‘06 here they were -23’ but needed 3 OT’s to pull out the win. LY BG was E on the road and only had a 413-374 yd edge but won 31-17. We won a rare weekday night 3H LPS on the Bulls last Thursday, who will we pick this week?

Fresno St at SAN JOSE ST - FSU has won 13 of L/14 (7-6 ATS) by 23 ppg & the HT is 5-1 ATS. SJSt is 4-1-1 ATS in home finales & 11-3-1 ATS in Nov HG’s but is on an 0-4 ATS skid. QB Reed is avg 156 ypg (64%) with a 9-6 ratio but needs to regain his consistency while WR Richmond has 64 rec (11.5) & 6 TD which is nearly 3 times as many catches as the next rec (22). SJSt has the edge on D (#51-98) & DL Gilbert (#1 in the NCAA with 21.5 tfl) & Ihenacho (#14 with 15.5 tfl) have combined for 37 tfl. FSU is on an 0-9 ATS skid but has covered 4 of the L/5 in this series & has the edge on off (#54-117) & ST (#39-73). QB Brandstater is avg 220 ypg (61%) with a 17-8 ratio & FSU has 3 RB’s with 500 yds or more led by Miller with 614 (7.5) & 5 TD. Fresno’s D is coming off a solid outing LW holding NMSt to 183 ttl yds (-9 rush yds).

TEMPLE 23 E Michigan 17 - First MAC meeting. The Eagles are 0-3 vs the Owls with each loss by single digits. EM is 3-20 SU in Nov AG’s but 11-6 ATS. Temple has had 10 days off but EM has not played in 21 days due to a scheduling quirk. The long break may have done EM QB Schmitt well as he has been playing inj’d all year since QB McMahon was lost for the year. Schmitt is avg 183 ypg (59%) with a 7-7 ratio. RB Blevins leads with 556 (4.4). Temple is led by QB DiMichele, who is avg 189 ypg (60%) with a 12-4 ratio. RB Griffin leads with 340 (4.2). Temple is off a 41-38 (-1) loss to Kent St and was outFD’d 27-16 and outgained 561-354 but had 3 long TD passes and a KR TD. Both tms lost to WM but while EM lost 31-10 as a 17’ pt AD, Temple only lost 7-3 as a 4 pt HD. EM lost to Army 17-13 as a 1 pt AD while Temple won 35-7 as a 7 pt AF. EM has the off edge (#94-112) but Temple has the D edge (#62-111) despite playing the tougher schedule (#72-101).

RUTGERS 34 Army 10 - Rutgers has won the L/4 in this series by 27 ppg and rushed for 404 yds (5.6) in ‘07 in a 41-6 road win. QB Teel was inj’d LY but is healthy here. Army is 3-20 ATS off a bye and just 4-8 ATS in the game before Navy. RU is 10-3 ATS as a DD favorite. Army rushed for a ssn high 461 yds 2 wks ago but came up short in a 38-31 loss to Rice. FB Mooney leads the team with 117 rush ypg (6.0). Their #7 rush offense (258, 4.7) now faces a RU D all’g 140 ypg (3.9) incl 272 vs the Navy option. LW RU forced 6 TO’s in their 49-16 rout over USF on the road. QB Teel is avg 229 ypg (59%) with a 15-12 ratio and WR Britt leads the BE with 68 rec (14.6). The run game is avg 116 ypg (3.5). Rutgers has the edge on offense (#42-119) and defense (#43-72). Army is on a 4-0 ATS streak on the road and RU is on a 7 game ATS win streak. After a 1-5 start, Schiano and company are on a 4 gm win streak and now look for bowl eligibility vs an ever improving Army squad.

Illinois 31 NORTHWESTERN 24 - IL broke a 4 gm losing streak to the Cats with LY’s 41-22 win in which they had a 321-69 rush yd edge. Four of the L/5 meetings have been decided by DD’s. NU has won their L/4 on Senior Day. IL is in danger of becoming the 1st B10 team S/’65 to go from the Rose Bowl to a losing ssn after a 30-20 loss to OSU dropped the Illini to 5-6. The Illini actually had 25-16 FD and 455-354 yd edges but 2 Williams TO’s led to an OSU 19 yd TD drive while the Bucks picked him off at the OSU6. OSU also blk’d a P for a safety which led to another 44 yd TD drive. Williams (269, 58%, 22-15 ratio) was benched thanks to 9 TO in L/4 but ret’d to throw a TD pass with :42 left. Illini D leads B10 with 32 sk but are just #88 pass eff D (195, 58%, 16-5 ratio). The Cats are off their 1st Big House win S/’95 as QB Bacher ret’d and threw for 158 2H yds as the Cats rallied from a 14-7 HT deficit. Teams off a Big House win TY are 0-4 ATS the next week. NU is #83 in pass eff D (216, 59%, 14-9 ratio). IL has off (#18-50), D (#50-63) and sked (#23-65) edges but the Cats have ST’s (#52-69) and home edges in this rivalry game for the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk.

CINCINNATI 24 Pittsburgh 20 - The Battle for the Big East Title and the winner earns the “River City Rivalry” Trophy. Pitt is 7-0 SU vs Cincy and has covered the L/3. LY Pitt was off 4 straight losses but had 2 RB’s top 100 yds (1st time S/’88) & upset #23 Cincy. The Panthers won here in ‘06, 33-15 (-7’). They are off a bye after crushing UL 41-7. RB McCoy, the #12 rusher in the nation, was held to a ssn low 39 yd rush and will now face a Cat defense that held WV to 98 yd rushing. UC is off a 28-20 win at UL last Friday. Pike went down in the 4Q (CS), and Grutza (ret from inj WK2) led the GW drive. Both teams also upset a ranked USF team TY. These teams are similar on defense but Pitt has the off edge (#32-65) and Cincy has our #2 ranked ST’s (Pitt #49). Pitt is 6-1 as an AD while Cincy is 8-3-1 ATS vs ranked opp’s L/2Y and the fav is 8-3 ATS in this series. Cincy has Syr next while Pitt has the Backyard Brawl on deck. This is a Jekyll & Hyde Pitt team and a win here for the Cats gives them the BCS spot.

WAKE FOREST 17 Boston College 16 - BC was upset their last trip to Winston-Salem 21-14 in ‘06 but outgained WF 430-280 with a 23-14 FD edge. WF is 4-1 ATS vs BC with 3 upsets but LY QB Skinner had 4 int incl 2 in the EZ in a 38-28 road loss. WF is 1-5 in their ACC home finale. WF & BC are tied for #2 in the NCAA w/29 TO’s forced. LW NCSt spoiled WF’s best shot at reaching the ACC Champ game for the 2nd time in 3Y with the 21-17 win while BC upset #20 FSU LW 27-17 (+6). QB Skinner is avg 188 ypg (64%) with an 11-5 ratio. RB Pendergrass has rushed for 416 yds (3.6) & WR Boldin has 63 rec (9.9). BC has the offensive edge (#67-88) but these 2 matchup evenly on D (BC #18-20). BC’s true Fr RB Harris (PS#159) has 652 rush yds (5.4). QB Crane is avg 169 ypg (55%) with a 10-13 ratio and WR B Robinson has 32 rec (16.0). With 2 games left the Eagles are very much alive in the race for the conference title (need to win both) while WF slipped to 6-4 (4-3 ACC) with its 3rd loss in the L/5.

VIRGINIA TECH 27 Duke 13 - VT’s avg win the last 7 in this series (6-1 ATS) is 34-9 with 3 shutouts the L5Y. LY VT led 34-7 at half and 43-7 after 3Q on the road. LW VT suffered a rare Thurs Night loss vs UM (15-4) and has lost 3 of 4. Following the game LW, HC Beamer did tell his team DC Foster would be interviewing for the Clemson HC job. QB Glennon got the start LW but Taylor did return (ankle inj) and on the season Taylor is avg 143 ttl ypg. RB Evans has 815 rush yds (4.6). VT has just a slight edge on offense (#73-81) but does have a solid defensive edge (#13-74). LW QB Lewis was lost w/a foot inj (CS) after the game’s 2nd series and Asack couldn’t generate any offense as Duke lost to CU 31-7. On the season Lewis is avg 189 ypg (61%) with a solid 14-5 ratio. WR Riley has 56 rec (11.2). With a growing inj list, Duke has to find a way to avoid more problems but Blacksburg is always a tough place to play and VT is looking to bounce back.

Florida St 26 MARYLAND 23 - Florida St has outscored Maryland by an avg of 43-16 in 16 games but the Terps have pulled outright upsets the last 2 meetings in College Park. MD is 6-2 SU in home finales and are 6-0 at home TY. MD is 4-0 SU/ATS this year vs ranked teams, incl their 17-15 win vs #17 NC LW and MD can reach the Atlantic Div Title gm by winning their L/2 gms. QB Turner, who has thrown 0 int’s & is 6-0 as the starter vs ranked teams, is avg 181 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio. RB Scott has 858 rush yds (5.0) and WR Heyward-Bey has 35 rec (15.4). FSU has the ede on both sides of the ball (off #27-60, D #38-57). LW playing w/o 5 susp WR’s, #20 FSU lost to BC 27-17 as QB Ponder threw 3 ints. On the season he is avg 191 ttl ypg and WR Carr has 26 rec (16.2). RB Smith has 651 rush yds (4.8). MD has been able to beat any team that’s ranked (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) but looks mediocre against just about anyone else (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) and now needs to win their L/2 UM finds their hands full vs an angry (and unranked) FSU tm.

NORTH CAROLINA 30 NC State 13 - The schools are just 26 miles apart and the fav is just 5-11 ATS in this rivalry. LY NCSt dominated with a 24-13 FD edge and led 17-0 but NC got 99 and 76 yd IR TD’s (28 pt swing) and led 27-24. State got a TD with 1:41 left to cover (-3’) and NC was SOD at the NCSt 7 at the end. LW NC dropped out of 1st place in the Coastal Div and has yet to win at MD S/’97. QB Sexton is avg 176 ypg (56%) with a 9-4 ratio. WR Nicks has 53 rec (17.2) and RB Draughn has rushed for 635 yds (4.6). NC has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #47-72, D #36-81). NCSt QB Wilson is avg 159 ypg (55%) with a solid 12-1 ratio. RB Brown has 554 rush yds (4.2) and 23 rec (11.0). LW NCSt beat their 2nd straight in-state ACC rival as they defeated WF 21-17 and they now look to sweep their Tobacco Road Rivals here. We used NC twice in ‘05 as a 5H and they are looking to bounce back from their loss LW. Do we go with the Heels again here?

KANSAS ST 41 Iowa St 27 - KSU is 11-3 SU (1-3 ATS) vs ISU winning by an avg of 29 ppg. LY ISU (+15’) won outright 31-20 in Ames. The HT is 8-3 ATS. ISU dropped its 9th straight LW to Mizzou (only outgained by 35 yds despite 32 pt loss). QB Arnaud (set ISU’s single-gm comp rec LW 36-54) is avg 214 ypg (61%) with a 12-8 ratio. KSU (5 straight losses) was eliminated from postseason play LW as Nebraska hammered them 56-28 (outgained 610-247) & the Wildcats have all’d 40+ pts (52+ 3x’s) the L/4W. QB Freeman is avg 242 ypg (59%) with a 16-8 ratio. KSU is 13-6 as a B12 HF incl 7-2 under HC Prince who is coaching his final gm. Prince will not have the send off Snyder had, but there will be some emotion. ISU is ranked #118 in our pass eff def all’g 277 ypg (69%) with a 27-11 ratio (highest avg all’d in school history) while KSU comes in at #67 (243 ypg, 60%, 23-8). KSU has the off edge (#38-71) and both defenses are rather porous (ISU#109, KSU #91) with each fielding solid ST units (ISU#29 KSU#6). This ssn has been a disappointment for both schools and it can not end quickly enough. KSU is 12-1 SU in home finales vs non-ranked opp’s (5-2 ATS) & ISU has dropped 16 straight RG’s (6-10 ATS).

MISSISSIPPI ST 24 Arkansas 20 - LY UA QB Dick threw a career high 4 TD passes in the Hogs’ 45-31 win over MSU. MSU had a 27-20 FD edge but was done in by 5 TO’s and the Hogs have won 9 in a row SU (4-5 ATS) in the series. The HT has covered 6 in a row. Ark is still clinging to bowl hopes but must win out (LSU on deck) to reach 6-6. MSU had their bowl hopes end in LW’s 32-7 loss to Bama. Ark has a large edge on offense (#53-103) but RB Smith (1012, 5.2) and QB Casey Dick (239 ypg, 57%, 11-14 ratio) were inj’d 2 wks ago in their loss to SC and were held out of practices during their bye wk (CS). MSU QB Lee is avg 139 ypg (59%) with a 5-4 ratio and RB Dixon has 673 rush (4.1). MSU has the edge on def (#47-69) and is allowing just 238 ypg at home TY. MSU is 2-0 as a HD TY with an outright upset of Vandy and Ark hasn’t been favored on the road yet under Petrino. The Hogs have more to play for, but MSU has played tough at home TY.

WYOMING 27 Colorado St 20 - This is the 100th edition of the “Border War” & the HT has won the L/6Y (5 str ATS). WY is just 1-7 SU in home finales and 2-7 SU vs Colo St. WY is officially eliminated from a bowl (and Glenn’s job is officially ?) after letting a 14-9 lead go and losing 22-14 vs UNLV. Their 238 lb QB Stutzriem tossed 2 int, the 2nd in the EZ on what could’ve been gm-tying pts. It was WY’s 1st loss to LV S/’03. Stutz has thrown for 404 ttl yd (55%) with a 4-2 ratio in his 3 gms as the st’r. MWC-leading RB Moore has 1,225 yd (5.3) with 7 TD. The top WR is Bolling who has just 23 rec (10.8) thru 11 gm!!! WY is 10-6 as a HD with 7 outrights. CSU is off a 20-6 win over N Mexico. RB Johnson reached the 1,000 yd plateau (& is only 100 yd rusher NM all’d TY). He now has 1,056 yds (4.6) & accounts for 77% of the run off. QB Farris is avg 222 ypg (62%) with a 14-11 ratio. His fav target is Greer with 58 rec (17.2). CSU comes in needing a win to get to the magical 6 but they’re 0-3 in MWC AG’s TY, have covered just 6 of the L/21 in that role and are just 1-8 the L/6Y as an AF.

RICE 34 Marshall 27 - LY Rice was down 17-0 at the half but cut the lead to 27-21 before allowing a TD w/1:23 left and lost 34-21 (+9) on the road. This is Marshall’s first trip here. Snyder is 3-20 SU (6-16-1 ATS) on the road. Marshall is off a 30-14 home loss to UCF in which they were outgained 242-229 and made 2 critical ST’s mistakes that led to UCF scores. MU now needs 2 wins to get to a bowl. QB Cann completed just 4 passes (23.5%) for 32 yds with 2 ints, and is now avg 168 ypg (50%) with a 13-12 ratio. RB Marshall has turned it on the L2W with 265 yds rushing and now has 883 (4.9) on the season. WR Passmore leads with 858 ttl yds (17.5). Rice is off a bye and has already clinched a bowl bid (2nd in 3 yrs, only 2nd S/’61), but still has CUSA West Title hopes. Offensive record-breakers QB Clement and WR Dillard set the tone for an Owls’ off avg 41 ppg. Clement is avg 312 ypg (67%) with a 32-6 ratio and with one more TD becomes the CUSA career leader (has 109). Dillard has 1,093 ttl yds and is #2 in NCAA with 17 TD receptions. MU is 2-3 ATS on the road TY, but 2 losses came against BCS schools (Wisky, WVU).

Washington 27 WASHINGTON ST 24 - This appears to be the ugliest matchup in the history of the “Apple Cup” as the winless Huskies journey to Pullman to play a hopeless Cougar squad (teams combined 3-17 ATS TY). UW was held to 135 yds ttl off as they were handed a school-record 12th straight defeat by the Bruins & remain the only team in IA w/o a victory TY. LY WSU QB Brink drove the Cougs 84 yds in 7 plays to score the winning TD with :31 left, 42-35 (+6). WSU was shutout for the 3rd time in 4 wks and they have now allowed 533 pts this ssn ranking next to last in the nation in scoring def (48.5 ppg) & in scoring off (12.6 ppg). The Huskies are actually 5-1 SU here in Pullman and have proven to be more competitive at times TY (lost by 7 to Stanford while WSU lost by 58). While UW has failed to pull out a victory this ssn, it’s quite amazing to see an 0-10 squad favored in a P10 road trip, but they clearly have more talent than WSU in this one.

TULSA 59 Tulane 17 - In CUSA play Tulsa is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series as they have been favored by an avg of 13 and won by an avg score of 42-14. TU had their BCS bubble burst by Ark 3 weeks ago, and now the Hurricane are in a 3-way tie for 1st in CUSA West after an embarrassing 70-30 loss at Houston. TU no longer controls their own destiny in the conf race. They were outgained 641-501 and had 5 TO’s. QB Johnson threw 2 int, but still leads NCAA in pass eff and is avg 325 ypg (66%) with a 37-11 ratio and leads an offense that avg 50 ppg, but only 27 the L/2. Tulane has lost 6 in a row (2-4 ATS) after a 41-24 home loss to UAB and is only playing for pride. The offense has been decimated by inj (RB Anderson, WR J Williams out yr) and is avg just 19 ppg in conf play. QB Moore is avg 185 ypg (57%) with an 8-11 ratio. The running game has been non-existent since Anderson went down (74.5 ypg). The D has all’d over 1,000 yds L/2 wks and is all’g 34 ppg in conf play. Tulane hasn’t packed it in but the talent gap is just too wide. Tulsa also needs to take out their anger on someone and is 4-0 ATS at home TY (avg cover 18 pts) so expect another blowout win by the Golden Hurricane.

OKLAHOMA 48 Texas Tech 41 - Matchup of the nation’s top 2 offenses which should decide who wins the B12 South & goes on to play for a National Title. Both teams are off a bye. LY OU QB Bradford & RB Murray were both injured early as TT knocked off #3 OU 34-27 (+7). In ‘06 here #17 OU trailed 24-10 but got a frontdoor cover with 2:21 left 34-24 (-9). TT HC Leach was an asst HC/OC at OU in ‘99-’00 guiding OU to a #1 finish in ttl off. HT is 8-2 SU (3-5 ATS). Under Leach TT is 0-8 SU but 5-3 ATS vs Top 10 tms on the road. TT is 10-0 (5-3 ATS) for the 1st time S/’38. QB Harrell is avg 408 ypg (72%) with a 36-5 ratio. His fav target is WR Crabtree with 78 rec (13.0). OU comes in at 9-1 (7-2 ATS) as they have outscored opp’s 201-27 w/a 29-3 TD edge in the 1Q TY (scored on every opening drive). QB Bradford is avg 341 ypg (68%) with a 38-6 ratio. OU is 12-4-1 as a HF & TT is 2-5 as an AD. TT ranks #19 in our pass eff def all’g 244 ypg (62%) with an 11-16 ratio while OU comes in at #9 (all’g 238 ypg, 53%, 11-13). Vs OU, Leach’s TT squads have only passed for 286 ypg (61%) with a 10-19 ratio as the Sooners have int’d at least one pass in the 8 meetings. TT is playing their 3rd straight vs a Top 10 ranked foe (1st away from Lubbock), has gone just 4-11 SU & 5-10 ATS vs OU and Stoops is 59-2 SU at home (covered 3 straight home finales).

PENN ST 38 Michigan St 13 - LY MSU rallied from a 24-7 3Q deficit to win the Land Grant Trophy 35-31 in E Lansing. PSU is 11-4 SU in the series & 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in Happy Valley (MSU’s last win in ’65). PSU is 17-1 SU in FHG’s. MSU is 6-2-1 ATS (9-0 SU) as a fav TY but 0-2 ATS as a dog. MSU had the bye to get ready for this & still has a shot at the Rose Bowl with a win here. Ringer is #3 NCAA with 1,548 yds (4.4) & 20 TD. Spartans are #13 pass eff D (191, 51%, 10-13 ratio) but have allowed 172 rush ypg (4.5) in B10 play. PSU dominated Indy more than the 34-7 final as they had 23-6 FD & 442-180 yd edges as the Lions had the ball 3 times inside IU’s 25 in the 1H and only came away with 3 pts. After leading the B10 in pass eff QB Clark is avg just 149 ypg (51%) with 2-2 ratio & 1 fmbl L/3. RB Royster has 1,123 yd (6.5). Lions are #1 B10 allowing 102 rush ypg (3.0) and DE Maybin has 12 sk. PSU has all the edges (#12-41 off, #5-40 D & #4-51 ST) as they earn their 1st trip to Pasadena S/’94. We used our 5H October GOM on Ohio St over the overrated Spartans, a 45-7 winner. Could we go against MSU again?

Clemson 24 VIRGINIA 16 - Last met in ‘04 here and Virginia rolled 30-10 (-15’). The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS with 2 outright upsets. Virginia is off a bye and in its FHG. LW CU defeated Duke in the 1st of 3 wins the Tigers need to become bowl elig (2 IAA opp’s). RB Spiller, who has accounted for 242 yds the L2W, has 1,332 all-purp yds on the season. QB Harper is avg 208 ypg (63%) with a 10-12 ratio. WR Kelly, who set the ACC’s career receptions record (217), has 53 rec (12.2). CU has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #43-80, def #29-49). RB Peerman, who had 0 fmbl’s in 38 gms, has had a fmbl in each of the L/2 gms and on the season has 662 rush yds (5.4). QB Verica is avg 200 ypg (65%) with an 8-12 ratio. WR Ogletree has 50 rec (12.8) and TE Philips has 46 (8.2). While CU needs to win their final 2, UVA also needs to win their L/2 to avoid their 2nd losing yr in the L3 and the 3rd of Groh’s 8Y tenure.

TCU 34 Air Force 6 - LY in AF’s 20-17 OT win, almost half of AF’s rush yds (71) came on 1pl. TCU was in complete control up 14 in the 4Q before AF rallied to tie it. TCU got to the AF22 w/:49 left and Patterson blasted his OC after a pass in the EZ was int’d forcing OT. TCU has won 8 of 9 home finales SU and is 4-1 SU in this series (Patterson 9-1 SU vs service acad). Prior to LY’s debacle TCU had won their 2 MWC meetings by a 43-12 avg. Frogs are off a bye but 2W ago vs Utah they had 202 1Q yds, but just 6 ttl in the 2Q and after a Dalton int, UT hit a 37 yd FG to make it 10-6 at half. TCU outgained UT 416-275 but 2 missed 4Q FG’s were devastating as Johnson found Brown w/:48 left, 13-10. LW AF built a 14-10 HT lead (despite being outgained 218-197) but BYU methodically marched down the field scoring 21 pts in the 1st 10:00 of the 2H as AF lost 38-24. QB Jefferson has thrown for 497 yds (63%) with a 4-2 ratio since taking over as the st’r. He also has 370 yd rush (4.4). FB Newell is the #1 rusher with 585 (4.4) while Fr Clark is #2 with 468 (4.6). TCU has all the edges incl off (#35-83) and ST’s (#12-72) and is 16-1 SU (14-3 ATS) in Nov HG’s. The L/2Y TCU has held AF to its lowest rush ypc of the yr, (over 1/2 yd less ypc than next closest) and with the huge edge on D (#2-61) and a 15-2 ATS rec’d at home, look for much the same here.

CALIFORNIA 30 Stanford 13 - This marks the 102nd football edition of the “Big Game” (SU leads 50-41-10). LW vs OSU Cal was unable to put solid drives together in the 2H as QB Riley struggled hitting just 44% of his passes (117 yds) possibly making HC Tedford call for bkup Longshore (165 ypg, 58%, 5-2 ratio in 3 sts TY) to start again here as the QB carousel may continue. While their offense has been hit or miss in ‘08, the Cal defense has been a strong point (our #8) & it will be interesting how their new 3-4 alignment does against a one-dimensional smashmouth SU run gm (207 rush ypg). The Bears dominated the first 5 in this series under Tedford by a 21 ppg avg but the Axe returned to Cardinal LY as they defeated a faltering Cal team 20-13 on the Farm. After blowing a last second lead to the Ducks & falling flat in the 2H to USC (tied at HT), Stanford has one last chance to become bowl eligible. The Cardinal have had solid success following matchups vs USC going 14-1 ATS while the visitor in this series is a surprising 12-4 ATS. However, the Bears will likely prove to be too strong for a SU program that has more than surpassed their expectations in 2008.

NEW MEXICO ST 30 Louisiana Tech 23 - NMSt leads the series 4-3 SU (3-1 ATS) & LT is the only school in the WAC which the Aggies own a winning record against. The Bulldogs have won 2 of 3 SU but have never won in Las Cruces (0-4) & have been outscored by 27 ppg there. The HT is 7-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the series winning by 21 ppg. Tech is 4-1 SU/ATS and has done it with def, ST & a strong run game. LT has the edge on def (#76-106) & ST (#25-83) here. QB Jenkins is avg just 78 ypg (53%) with a 4-3 ratio, but Tech is 4-1 with him as the starter. RB Porter has 906 yds (5.3) & 6 TDs& his hard-nosed running style has earned him the #1 spot. NMSt is 5-9 SU & ATS in home finales but is 4-1 ATS S/’04. In the L/2 gms of this series in Las Cruces, the Aggies have won by an avg of 31 ppg (avg line -6’). NMSt features the NCAA’s #10 pass off (297 ypg) led by QB Holbrook who is avg 271 ypg (66%) with a 21-13 ratio. He has a pair of skilled WR’s in Williams (74 rec, 14.4, 7 TD) & Harris (62 rec, 9.4, 3 TD). Williams is a threat any time he touches the ball with 9 ttl TD (7 rec, 1 PR, 1 KR) with 4 TD covering 80+ yds (86 yd avg) & 7 of his TD have come in the L/5 gms.

Boise St 31 NEVADA 27 - BSU is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS (ATS L LY) with the avg win by 34 ppg in this series. UN has the edge on off (#14-22) & “The Union” (UN’s OL) has paved the way for the Wolf Pack’s potent offense which features the #1 rush off (325 ypg), #5 overall off (524 ypg) & #13 scoring off (38.5 ppg) in the NCAA, spearheaded by QB Kaepernick & RB Taua. Kaepernick is avg 184 ypg (58%) with a 14-4 ratio to go along with 1,017 yds rushing (#2 in the WAC) & 16 TD. Taua leads the WAC with 1,284 yds (7.3) & 12 TD. In the even yrs S/’02, UN has hosted a ranked BSU team in its home finale but is 0-3 SU/ATS being outscored 140-35. Last time here (‘06), Boise found itself in a similar situation being undefeated with BCS hopes & crushed the Wolf Pack 38-7 (-2’) outgaining UN 477-141 & outFD them 25-4! BSU gets the nod on def (#21-87) & ST (#15-113). The Broncos feature the #2 scoring D in the NCAA holding foes to 10.3 ppg & have held 7 of their 10 opp to 10 pts or less TY! QB Moore is avg 263 ypg (71%) with a 20-6 ratio & leads the WAC in pass eff (163.4). This is likely BSU’s biggest remaining reg ssn test TY.

East Carolina 30 UAB 20 - The HT is 6-1 SU (avg win by 16 ppg) and LY we used a 3H Key Selection on these pages on EC (-14) at home and they won easily 41-6. UAB did win here in ‘06, 17-12 (-7). The Blazers are off a 41-24 feel good win over Tulane, which broke a 19 gm SU road losing streak. UAB has a very young team (12 rFr/TrFr on 2 deep) and a win over CUSA stalwart EC would generate some positive momentum for their struggling program. QB Webb is avg 201 ypg (58%) and leads the tm with 866 rush yds (5.4), but doesn’t have much help and he has forced things at times TY (10-15 ratio). EC is off a 21-3 loss at S Miss and still has work to do to clinch CUSA East. The Pirates only managed 255 yds of offense against the Eagles. QB Pinkney (181 ypg, 62%, 8-5 ratio) has again taken charge of the offense (rotated with Kass earlier TY), but the Pirates are avg just 12 ppg L/3 wks. The D has kept them in gms, all’g just 14.3 ppg the L/4 and is #1 in CUSA all’g 21.2 ypg in conf play. EC is clearly the better tm, but the Pirates are 0-5 ATS on the road TY and the offense has had trouble scoring.

HOUSTON 37 Utep 34 - LY UTEP was outgained 520-369 & outFD’d 28-17 in a 34-31 loss (+6). UTEP QB Vittatoe hit just 8-23 for 134 yds, but UH needed a 4Q TD to get the win. The Miners need 1 win to become bowl eligible and have a trip to EC on deck. UTEP has been on a roll offensively avg 36 ppg the L/6 and is off a dominating 36-10 win over a struggling SMU team. They outgained the Mustangs 544-201 with QB Vittatoe throwing for 410 yds and 3 scores in just 3Q. Vittatoe seems to get better every week and is now avg 260 ypg (59%) with a 27-6 ratio. He likes to spread the ball around as 4 rec have 20+ catches (Moturi leads with 42,13.4). UH has won the L/2 in the series (1-1 ATS) and is off a 70-30 thrashing of #23 ranked Tulsa thanks to a 5-1 TO adv. The Cougars outgained TU 641-501 and have amassed 1,334 yds the L2W. UH QB Keenum threw 6 TD’s (5 in 1H!) and also added a rushing TD, and is #2 in NCAA in ttl off avg 400.5 ypg. UH is now bowl eligible and controls its path to the CUSA West Title. UH is off a huge win and UTEP is playing for its postseason life, which should be enough to make it interesting, so we like the road dog.

UTAH 37 Byu 25 - In LY’s gm, Hall found Collie on 4 &18 for a 49 yd pass & Unga took it in w/:38 left for the 17-10 win (BYU did have 424-244 yd edge). Ten of 11 have been decided by a TD or less (dog 12-3 ATS). In ‘06 UT got a TD w/1:19 left, 31-27, but on the final play BYU’s Beck fired a pass across his body and TE Harline, on his knees, caught it for the win. BYU is off a 38-24 win over AF. After being down 14-10 at HT (did have 218-197 yd edge), the Cougs scored 21 pts in the 1st 10:00 of the 2H. Collie had another 100 yd gm (9 TY) and cont’s to lead the NCAA avg 120 rec ypg (85 rec) with 15 TD. QB Hall avg 311 ypg (72%) with a 34-8 ratio. The win was the Cougs’ 1st cover in 7 gms. LW UT never had to P and QB Johnson threw a career-high 5 TD passes in a 63-14 romp over SDSt. He is avg 212 ypg (67%) with a 20-9 ratio. Brown is the top WR with 57 (11.9) & 7 TD. BYU has a slight off edge (#16-28) but UT has large D (#24-73) & ST (#13-57) edges. This is a huge rivalry, with huge BCS implications. UT is 8-2-1 at home vs conf while BYU is 1-4 ATS on the road failing to cover those 4 by 13’ ppg. BYU is 1-13 SU and 3-10-1 ATS vs ranked foes while UT is 10-2 ATS vs ranked opp’s S/’99, so we side with the Utes.

Iowa 27 MINNESOTA 13 - Iowa had 13-7 FD & 218-115 yd edges LY at HT vs Minny (4 FD & 78 yds in 2H) but won just 21-16 (-14’) as Minny got a garbage TD w/1:38 left. This is Minny’s final game in the Metrodome but Iowa usually fills up half the crowd and is 5-2 ATS here. UM (+3) did win here in ‘06, 34-24. Iowa is 1-5 ATS as a conf AF (1-0 TY). This is UM’s 1st as a HD TY & they are 4-0 as a dog TY including LW’s cover vs rival Wisky as UM blew a 21-7 HT lead thanks to two 2H safeties & a fmbl which set up an 11 yd UW TD drive. UM QB Weber avg 223 ypg (64%) with a 14-6 ratio despite an OL which has allowed 26 sks (13 LY) and a stagnant run gm (88 ypg, 2.8 in B10 play). League leading receiver Decker (74, 12.1) DNP LW due to an ankle inj (CS). Gophers allow 157 rush ypg (4.2) in conf play. Hawks, despite being outFD’d 24-14, withstood a PU rally and won 22-17 as the Boilers’ Hail Mary wasn’t answered. Greene had another huge day (211-11th straight over 100) and moved up to #2 NCAA with 1,585 yds (6.2) & 15 TD. Hawks are #15 pass eff allowing 197 (56%) with a 7-18 ratio. Iowa has huge edges everywhere (#45-79 off, #11-55 D, #23-42 ST) and a win here could catapult them into a Jan bowl game while UM could still be licking their wounds after a loss to their hated rival, their 3rd straight overall.

ARIZONA 31 Oregon St 27 - The Beavers travel to Tucson off another efficient victory vs Cal to keep their surprising Rose Bowl hopes alive (haven’t been there S/’65). They have won & covered 8 of their L/9 meetings against the Cats (32-14 avg win) incl 3 straight duels in the desert. In LY’s game, OSU held Arizona to just 9 yds rushing (0.3 ypc) as the Beavers jumped out to a 24-3 1Q lead in Corvallis. Trailing 45-17 at the half LW, the Cats mounted a valiant comeback only to fall short in the final minutes in Eugene as their once solid defense was ripped apart by the Ducks’ offense (504 yds allowed, 219 over ssn avg). The Beavers have gone 11-4 ATS prior to rival Oregon but they did lose their 1st 3 gms on the road TY (Stan, PSU, Utah) prior wins on to recent trips to struggling UW & UCLA, which may cause potential problems for their Rose Bowl aspirations this week.

West Virginia 24 LOUISVILLE 23 - How times have changed as last time here in ‘06 #5 UL beat #3 WV 44-34 while this season there are the only 2 teams that Syracuse has outgained. LY UL tied it at 31 with 3:05 left but WV drove 65 yds in 4 plays to win. The home team has won the last 4 & they’ve combined to score 79 ppg their last 3. WV is 7-2 SU in the series and have avg 272 ypg rush the last 3 years. WV is off a bye after a disappointing 26-23 loss to Cincy. WV leads the BE is rushing with 214 ypg but has only avg 22 ppg vs D-1 opp’s while all’g just 16 ppg. They now face a swarming DC English rush defense that is all’g 91 ypg (3.11), #7 in NCAA. UL is off a disappointing 28-20 loss to Cincy a game in which they squandered many opp’s. QB Cantwell has had a subpar year (for UL QB’s) throwing for 200 ypg (57%) with a 14-12 ratio but has gotten little help at WR. They have relied on the run game that avg 172 ypg (4.5). WV has all the edges off (#34-55), def (#25-71) & ST’s (#44-97) while UL tries to regain their homefield swagger. UL is 5-1 (2-1 TY) ATS as a HD over 9 years and the dog in this series is 5-1 ATS. It’s time to play for pride as UL is in its FHG off a previous home loss.

MEMPHIS 20 Ucf 13 - UM was outgained 601-303 and was down 49-0 early 3Q LY in their 56-20 loss at Bright House. UCF only won 26-24 (-2’) here in ‘06 so the HT is 3-0 ATS despite UCF being 3-0 SU with the avg win by 40-20. Memphis is off a bye and has only play’d 1 gm since Oct 25th. The extra rest has all’d the Tigers to get healthy as QB Hall (229 ypg, 59%, 10-6 ratio) is expected to return after missing 2+ gms with a broken thumb. He may not start, but the Tigers offense has been difficult to contain, as they have avg’d 296 ypg rushing in his absence. DT McDonald (31 tkls, 7 sks) is also expected to return (missed L/3), which should provide a boost to a run D all’g 5.2 ypc. UCF took advantage of TO’s and ST’s miscues in a 30-14 road win at Marshall, despite only outgaining MU 242-229. The UCF defense continues to play hard (all’g just 10.3 ppg L/3), despite the continued struggles of an offense which ranks last in the NCAA (235 ypg). UM needs this win to be bowl eligible and to have a shot at 7 wins, which the Tigers and HC West have accomplished 4 of the L5Y. The Tigers are getting some important pieces back and that spells bad news for a UCF tm that has nothing to play for.

HAWAII 41 Idaho 20 - UH leads the series 7-1 SU (4-0 ATS) & has won the L/4 by 35 ppg. The Vandals are 3-1-1 ATS after stopping a 3-17 ATS skid dating back to ‘06. QB Enderle is avg 174 ypg (54%) with an 18-14 ratio & looks early & often for HB Williams who has 54 rec (12.7) & 6 TD (inj LW, CS). RB Jackson has been slowed by an inj but still leads the tm with 647 yds (4.5). UI’s D is #117 in the NCAA in ttl yds all’d (483 ypg) as the Vandals are #113 against the run (222 ypg) & #109 against the pass (260 ypg). UH has the edge on off (#86-108) & def (#80-119), but the Warriors have been turnover prone (#117 in the NCAA) with 31 (19 int, 12 fmbl). One reason was the inconsistency at QB with a revolving door of players (4). Funaki (112 ypg, 57%, 6-12 ratio) accounted for 14 TO’s himself but UH made the switch to Alexander (156 ypg, 66%, 5-2 ratio) & things have stabilized. Hawaii is off a bye & is on a 5-1 ATS run but are is 3-6 ATS as a HF in reg ssn gms. They play their L/3 gms at home & need to win 2 to go bowling.

Florida Atlantic 27 ARKANSAS ST 24 - LY FAU trailed 31-20 with about 10:00 left, but rallied for the comeback win. Their 1st meeting was here in ‘05 as ASU shutout FAU 3-0 (1st IA gm to head into OT scoreless). The HT is 3-0 SU with 2 shutout wins. Ark St is fresh off a bye with this being their home finale. They’re also on a 5 gm ATS losing streak. ASU QB Leonard is avg 201 ypg (51%) with a 5-2 ratio in conf play. FAU is off its 4th straight win (3-1 ATS) handing ULL its first conf loss, 49-20 (33-7 after 3Q). QB Smith is avg 257 ypg (62%) with an 11-7 ratio vs current SBC foes TY. They have their ssn finale vs FIU at Miami on deck and still have a shot at a bowl.

FIU 23 Ulm 20 - ULM is on its 3rd straight AG. Last & only time here in 2006, ULM posted their 1st shutout since 1999, 35-0. LY ULM trailed 7-0 at home with only 37 yds in the 1Q but rallied for the cover 28-14 (-13’). ULM is off a 59-0 loss to Ole Miss and were outgained 520-131 (341-63 in 1H). QB Lancaster left with inj in 3Q (CS). He is avg 189 ypg (61%) with an 11-4 ratio vs SBC foes. FIU is fresh off a bye after their 22-21 win vs Ark St the week prior on a 38 yd TD pass from WR Hilton to WR Mertile. FIU still has a chance at a winning ssn with 3 winnable gms left with Fla Atl on deck. QB McCall is avg 226 ypg (52%) with a 7-3 ratio vs SBC with WR Hilton having 22 of his 27 rec vs SBC (29.0). While ULM is 4-2 ATS vs SBC and has slight offensive edge (#101-118), FIU is 4-1 ATS vs SBC and has the edge on def (#82-113), ST’s (#27-82) and has played the tougher schedule (#88-113).

MIDDLE TENN 37 North Texas 27 - In ‘06 North Texas suffered its 1st & only shutout loss in SBC history at home to MT, 35-0. The visitor is 5-2 SU in the series and MT won on the road again LY 48-28 (-12’). The game was closer than the final as it was 30-28 late 3Q. MT has never beaten NT in Mufreesboro SU. This is MT’s home finale and they are off a 21-10 win over WKU outgaining them 313-281. QB Craddock is avg 195 ypg (66%) with a 4-4 ratio vs SBC foes. NT is off a bye and lost 46-13 to FAU the week prior being outgained 507-255 and outFD’d 24-15. NT QB Vizza is avg 189 ypg vs SBC (63%) with 5-9 ratio. Both tms have struggled vs SBC foes with NT going 1-4 ATS and MT 0-5. NT has not allowed fewer than 35 pts (allowing 67% comp) while MT has not topped 24 pts TY (57% comp) but that streak could end here vs our #120 D. NT has enough firepower to keep it close.

TROY 37 Louisiana-Lafayette 30 - Both tms have 1 loss in conf play and the winner of this gm most likely wins the SBC and goes to the New Orleans Bowl. Troy has won the last 2 matchups by an avg of 45-29.5 (+1 & -9). They are off their 40-31 loss to LSU after being up 31-3 in 3Q and holding the Tigers to 63 yds ttl offense and 2 FD’s in 1H. QB Brown is avg 296 ypg (63%) with an 11-3 ratio in his 5 sts TY. ULL is on a 2nd straight road gm and is off its 1st SBC loss this ssn losing 40-29 to FAU although it meant nothing as far as winning the SBC. ULL was outgained 523-432 (307-204 pass). They do have the NCAA’s #3 rush off avg 284 ypg (6.4) while Troy is avg 156 (4.8). Against SBC foes, QB Desormeaux is avg 173 ypg (62%) with a 9-10 ratio and RB Fenroy has 690 yds (6.9). ULL has the offense edge (#33-52) but Troy has the def (#70-112) and ST’s edge (#35-55).

Sunday, November 23rd - Connecticut at USF - LY RB Dixon ran for career high 167 yds & UC held on with a late GL stand to knock off #11 USF. UC was helped by home field advantage w/driving rain and USF ran 30 plays in Conn territory in 4Q but came away with just 2 FG’s. As expected the HT is 4-0 SU and ATS in this series covering by 10.3 ppg. Conn clicked on all cylinders LW crushing SU 39-14 at the Dome. QB Lorenzen made a surprise start returning from inj after missing 4 gms and is now 15-4 as the starter. RB Brown carries the load leading the NCAA avg 154 ypg (5.6). LW USF was embarrassed losing 49-16 to RU at home. TO’s (6), penalties and miscues prevented the Bulls from maintaining any offensive threat in the loss. Without a run attack, the offense is QB Grothe who avg 275 ypg ttl offense. This matchup will have #39 UC def vs USF’s #36 off. USF has been favored in each of the L/16 gms but has lost 8 outright. USF will look to rebound after losing 4 of the last 5.

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

(4) Angle Plays 28-10 74% L/4Y!

none this week

(3) CAROLINA
(3) CHICAGO
(3) NEW ENGLAND
(3) WASHINGTON

SYSTEM PLAY: 10 -2 THIS YEAR

Play the Over if a road team allowed 30 or more FD's last week.1994-2007: 26-11 70%THIS WEEK'S PLAY:Texans/Browns OVER

4* TENNESSEE over NY Jets - NYJ are in sole possession of the AFC East for the 1st time since 2001 & have 3 extra days to gameplan. TEN beat the Jets 10-6 late LY but failed to cover as an 8.5 pt HF. TEN had a road game vs IND on deck & the offense struggled vs the 2nd 3-4 scheme it faced all year. TEN kept to the ground outrushing the Jets 127 (3.5) vs 68 (2.8) & had 6 sacks vs a patchwork OL. NYJ are 5-1 ATS as an AD & 7-3 ATS after facing NE. TEN is 6-2 ATS as a non-div fav. The Jets are fairly even statistically the L4W with the #8 & #18 units (+4 TO’s) vs TEN’s #21 & #9 units (+4 TO’s). LY the Jets allowed 148 ypg (4.3) rushing thru the 1st 10 games with 16 sacks. TY they are allowing 81 ypg rushing (3.4) & have tallied 34 sacks thanks to the FA additions of NT Jenkins & OLB Pace. The Jets shifted to a more run oriented scheme (82 rush vs 40 pass) the L2W as Favre’s gun slinging created too many TO’s (4-8 ratio prior to LW) & the rest of the offense was suited to a more conservative style. TEN was down 11 pts LW at JAX & once again went to Collins to pull out the win. He led the team on 3 scoring drives of 55, 63 & 51 yds. The Titans defense held JAX to three FD’s & 85 yds in the 2H with 6 straight punts. Favorites that just earned their first win are 27-12-2 ATS. The Titans are 5-0 as 4H Key Selections for us TY & we side with them again in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 30 NY Jets 20

3* New England over MIAMI - NE was humbled by MIA unveiling the Wildcat formation vs them in the 1st meeting losing 38-14 as a 12’ pt HF ending their 21 game consec win streak. MIA used 6 direct snaps which resulted in TD runs of 2,15,5 & 62 yds by RB Brown who finished with 113 yds rushing (6.6). MIA had 23-14 FD & 461-216 yd edges & held Cassel to 131 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio. NE is 15-2 ATS off a div loss. Cassel is a much different QB since then (258 ypg 67% 7-3 L5W) & Belichick gets 3 extra days to gameplan here. MIA has won 3 straight but a closer look shows that its been by smoke & mirrors. They only scored 1 off TD vs DEN #29 defense, 3 vs SEA #28 defense via a flea flicker, 51 yd run by RB Williams on bad tackling, another Wildcat play to RB Brown and 2 vs OAK’s #25 defense by a 40 WR reverse & a 10 yd run by #3 RB Cobb. They have won the yardage battle in the L5 games its only been by an avg of 60 ypg. The Patriots expect both RB Morris & Jordan to be available here which greatly expands the playbook for them. NE needs a win here as MIA has the tie breaker edge over them & we’ll side with NE in a rare AD role (9-3-1 ATS) and with Belichick off a loss (13-1 ATS). FORECAST: New England 28 MIAMI 14

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE - MIN returns to Florida for the 2nd straight week & host CHI next while JAX has a MNF road game vs HOU on deck. Unlike LW where MIN faced a healthy, veteran defense with an aggressive secondary coming off a bye they face a DL with 2 rookie DE’s & DT Henderson
is quest with a Grade 2 MCL sprain. MIN is 4-10-1 ATS vs the AFC while JAX is 10-5 ATS vs the NFC. After a 1-4 SU & ATS start set up by the QB switch to Frerotte & LT McKinnie’s 4 game susp, the Vikings are 4-2 SU (but 2-4 ATS) as they play to their strengths on the ground with a 157 (4.8) to 79 (3.5) rush edge. MIN’s DL has 17.5 of the team’s 26 sacks & get a good matchup vs a JAX OL that has given up 26 sacks (23rd) that has interior issues. Frerotte does have issues with int (9 in L4W) but JAX #18 pass defense has a 15-5 ratio since Wk 4 and 7 of their 19 sacks by came vs DET LW. JAX was expected to contend for the AFC South but is a longshot now for a playoff spot while MIN remains in the hunt for the NFC North with a win here. FORECAST: Minnesota 24 JACKSONVILLE 20

2* ARIZONA (+) over NY Giants - This is farthest West the Giants have travelled since facing SEA in Wk 3 of 2006. ARZ has a Thanksgiving road game vs PHI on deck. Incl playoffs the Giants are 13-2 ATS on the road. ARZ is 10-4 ATS hosting a non-div foe. The Giants went into LW’s game vs BAL determined to run & they forged 207 yds rushing (6.3) vs the #3 defense. They took BAL’s run game out of the equation with a 20-3 lead at the end of the 1H taking advantage of Flacco’s inexperience. The Giants have beaten 3 quality foes in PIT, PHI & BAL in the L4W while ARZ has faced 3 NFC West foes with a combined 7-23 record & should have lost to SF on MNF. Warner is having an MVP season (322 ypg 73% 12-3 since Jets) but has only faced 2 top 10 pass def in WAS & CAR going 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS TY. The Giants are familiar with the ARZ defense having beaten PIT just 4 wks ago. The Giants quality of wins works against them here as they now face the best passing team on their schedule & they may be without RB Jacobs who was KO’d of LW’s game. With another division game vs WAS on deck for NYG & ARZ at home wanting to prove they are the real deal who could perhaps sneak into the #2 seed. Look for the Cardinals to pull an upset as an Ugly Dog (23-11 68%) as the physicality of the schedule catches up with NYG here. FORECAST: ARIZONA 28 (+) NY Giants 21

OTHER GAMES

Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH - Thursday - PIT is 4-0 SU & ATS vs CIN including a 38-10 win as a 9.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting TY. PIT was coming out of its bye & the defense tallied 7 sacks vs Fitzpatrick making his 2nd start for CIN. PIT had a 375-212 yd edge as CIN didn’t get their initial FD until 4:57 left in 1H. CIN is now the healthier team just coming out of their bye LW & face a PIT team off 4 tough matchups with a beat up Roethlisberger. This is CIN’s only prime time game TY. Can they generate the tempo on a short week vs a physical PIT team that has NE on deck?

CLEVELAND 36 Houston 30 - This is the 6th meeting in 7 years between the teams with the home team going 4-1 SU & ATS. LY CLE beat HOU 27-17 as a 3 pt HF. CLE had a 397-234 yd edge before allowing HOU an 80 yd TD drive while up 27-10 late 4Q. CLE is off the MNF game vs BUF & its unknown how the team responded after blowing 13 & 14 pt 4Q leads at home. They have been outgained 427-308 at home TY & only DET (-167) has a worse yardage differential at home. HOU is 1 of 3 teams in the NFL without a road win (0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS) & have given up 28 or more pts in each game (13-2 O/U L15 games). HOU #17 pass defense is giving up a 17-6 ratio with & are 23rd with 17 sacks by. CLE has struggled getting pressure on the QB with just 14 sacks by (24th) but they have only allowed 11 sacks & have a huge edge with +4 TO’s TY vs HOU at -13. With CLE’s coaching staff under fire by the media they will be expanding the playbook each week under Quinn to save their jobs. CLE needs to keep showing improvement from week to week here & with both teams having bad defenses we’ll side with the home team by 6 in a higher scoring game.

Buffalo 28 KANSAS CITY 27 - BUF is off LW’s MNF game vs CLE & after facing 3 straight div foes they could be worn down here. While strength vs strength matches up here (BUF #27 & #13 L4W vs KC #12 & #30) the Bills have a huge spec teams edge while KC is +9 TO’s vs BUF -5 on the year. 1st & 2nd year QB’s are 5-19 SU at Arrowhead. While Thigpen continues to impress (236 ypg 61% 8-1 L4W) the defense has been really struggled TY. They only have 6 sacks all year, are allowing 165 ypg (5.1) rushing, could be without 4 defensive starters & nickel CB Surtain for the 3rd straight week & have been outscored by 49 pts in the 3Q which indicates they can’t adjust in game. KC got RB Johnson (67 yds 3.5) back LW & is avg 88 ypg & 10 ppg more the L4W under Thigpen vs the 1st 6 Wks. BUF has dropped their L3 road games SU & ATS getting outgained 367-265 & losing by a 29-14 avg margin. BUF has only pulled in 4 sacks the L5 games vs 10 in the 1st 5 games & its doubtful that DE Schobel will return here. KC is a dangerous team right now getting BUF in a bad spot & we’ll side with the HD to cover here in a higher scoring game.

DALLAS 27 San Francisco 13 - DAL is off LW’s SNF game vs WAS (4-1 ATS afterwards) & it’s not known how effective Romo was. DAL is 2-7 ATS as a DD fav under Phillips. SF is 2-5 ATS as a dog of 9 or more. While DAL has taken a dip in the rankings due to Romo’s injury they still have the #12 & #11 units (-6 TO’S) vs SF’s #21 & #21 units (-12 TO’s) though SF has a sizeable spec teams edge. While SF earned HC Singletary’s 1st win LW it was vs a STL team that lost LT Pace & OG Incognito & was playing without 2 defensive starters in CB Hill & LB Draft & NT Carriker is playing by force of will. SF scored on 5 of their 1st 6 drives 3 of which were set up by TO’s giving them excellent field position. However in the 2H they only earned 5 1st Dns & 67 yds as the Rams became more cautious. DAL has excellent matchups here as the addition of WR Williams means that Owens can’t be double teamed & Witten has much freedom in the intermediate game vs SF’s #25 pass defense with a 15-10 ratio. DAL can also go to a 3WR spread with Crayton & let RB Barber pound the ball at a SF defense that is allowing 107 ypg (3.7). While Hill is a better option for SF as he has better handling skills the 49ers are off a big win for Singletary & Martz vs his former team & they now face a DAL team with a much larger talent edge.

Tampa Bay 24 DETROIT 17 - DET beat TB 23-16 as a 2.5 pt HF LY. TB dominated the game statistically with 27-17 FD, 422-278 yd & 11:40 TOP edges but missed a 40 yd FG & bobbled a snap on DET 1 which DET recovered. TB is 2-10 ATS as an AF. DET is 2-6 ATS at home & 0-3 ATS prior to their Thanksgiving game. TB has huge edges with the #9 & #5 units (+1 TO’s) vs DET’s #28 & #31 units (-7 TO’s) with a top 10 special teams unit as well. TB dominated a better balanced & talented MIN team LW with a 363-210 yd edge but their red zone issues remain a concern as on 5 drives inside the MIN 21 they came away with 1 TD & 4 FG’s. DET has been outFD 22-13 & outgained 424-257 at home TY. Culpepper was a bit better LW with 207 yds (57%) with a TD but he had 3 TO’s (2 int 1 fmbl) which got turned into 14 pts. DET’s LB’s are notorious for over pursuing & are giving up 172 ypg (5.1) on the ground. DET’s #23 pass defense has a 16-2 ratio (1 int by DB) & has allowed 29 passes of 20+ yds TY. TB should get the SU win but their red zone issues & poor AF record combined with the fact that fav’s of 9.5 or more are 4-18 ATS TY (0-3 LW) is a concern vs an increasingly desperate team.

BALTIMORE 20 Philadelphia 17 - This is only the 2nd HG in a 7 wk span for BAL where they have dominated with a 323-192 yd edge & 21-11 avg score. PHI has the #4 & #13 units (-2 TO’s) vs BAL’s #11 & #10 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. The Eagles had a rare NFL tie vs CIN LW going thru all 5Q. While McNabb had 339 yds passing he hit just 48% with a 1-3 ratio. He didn’t take OT seriously & noted in the postgame conferences that he didn’t know the NFL only had 1 extra Qtr. PHI was 3-18 on 3rd Dns & once again struggled with short yardage situations. PHI DC Johnson is 9-3 SU vs rookie QB’s & his #11 pass def (12-9 ratio) faces a beat up WR Mason (shoulder), no true #2 WR & TE Heap who spends more time blocking than running routes. While BAL hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 28 games they gave up a combined 207 yds (6.3) on the ground. BAL front 7 is more than capable of dealing with PHI’s short passing game centered around Westbrook. PHI is a talented team but after LW’s bad performance they now face an angry defense with a capable offense that has kept the team out of bad situations & we’ll call for the HT to win by 3 for now & watch the line.

Chicago 31 ST LOUIS 21 - This is a flat spot for CHI as they are off a tough game vs TEN, a big loss vs their arch-rival Packers & have a road game vs MIN on deck. CHI is 8-3 ATS on the road while STL is 4-13 ATS at home. Orton did return LW but he only had 133 yds passing (50%) & Forte only had 64 yds (4.0). CHI has allowed QB’s to pass for season highs in 4 of the L5 games (281 ypg 68% 9-7) with a different starting secondary in each week. STL is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS L2Y without RB Jackson (quad) losing by an avg 32-12 not including the 34-13 loss vs ARZ when he was pulled early 3Q (17 yds 2.4). While Bulger had 295 yds passing (64%) with a 1-2 ratio, 168 of his yards came in the 2H with the game firmly out of hand LW. STL’s #24 pass defense is allowing a 15-6 ratio TY & huge 8.8 ypa. CHI is locked into a 3 way tie in the NFC North while they aren’t the most talented team in the hunt they are better than STL & win by 10.

Carolina 23 ATLANTA 20 - CAR beat ATL 24-9 in wk 4 as a 7 pt HF to move to 5-2 SU & ATS in the series. CAR had a 401-268 yd edge as they held RB Turner to 56 yds (3.1) rushing. Ryan had 158 yds passing (51%) with an 0-0 ratio but since then he’s avg’d 248 ypg passing (64%) with a 9-4 ratio. While ATL has played 3 straight defenses ranked 25th, 24th & 29th they held Brees to 140 yds passing (36%) with an int thru the first 3Q when they were up 27-6. They couldn’t contain Cutler (216 yds 70% 1-0) who went after ATL’s safeties. ATL had 10-4 FD & 200-88 yd edges in the 1H but on 3 drives inside the DEN 20 in the 1H they settled for 2 FG’s & 1 TD. CAR comes in off a bye having faced 2 of the worst teams in the NFL the L3W. After beating an OAK team that couldn’t capitalize on 4 int vs a team coming cross country CAR played to its strengths as a power rushing game with a 264 (8.3) to 130 (3.8) rushing edge. Delhomme wasn’t a factor with just 98 yds (53) with 1 TD. While CAR did beat SD on the road in Wk 1 they lost to MIN & TB & would have lost to OAK if they were facing a better coaching staff. ATL was caught up in its own press LW & wasn’t used to dealing with success. Now giving points to a CAR team that is 11-5-1 ATS away in div play, the road team is more attractive.

DENVER 24 Oakland 17 - DEN destroyed OAK on MNF in Wk 1 with a 41-14 win as a 3 pt AF. DEN scored on 7 of their first 9 drives with a 441-317 yd edge. Cutler hit for 299 yds (67%) with a 2-0 ratio as OAK had no sacks or QB hits vs him. Al Davis reopened some old wounds at the Kiffin press conference. Davis remarked that DEN cheated during the 1997 & 1998 seasons & made some disparaging remarks about Shanahan’s coaching career. Since then OAK is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS being outgained by an avg 381-221 outscored 22-8. Russell will be adjusting to his 3rd different play caller with HC Cable taking over LW & had 156 yds (68%) LW. While they had the lead with 4:30 left in the 4Q they couldn’t hold onto it & allowed MIA to hit the game winning FG with :43 left. They now face a DEN team that is winning despite its injuries on offense & defense thanks to Cutler & his WR tandem of Marshall & Royal. DEN has sizeable edges at the skill position spots especially with WR Walker (ankle) now on IR & at QB but they are a poor HF (2-13 ATS) & with large favorites doing poorly TY we’ll lean with the home team for now & watch the line to see if it moves.

Washington 23 SEATTLE 16 - SEA dismantled a physically & emotionally drained WAS team 35-14 as a 3 pt HF in LY’s Wild Card meeting. SEA was up 13-0 late 3Q when WAS went 84 yds 12 plays for a TD & Hasselbeck was int’d on the next drive to setup a 30 yd TD pass to Moss 14-13 WAS. SEA bounced back with a 20 yd TD pass & returned 2 int’s for TD’s on WAS final 2 drives of the game. WAS is 5-1 ATS as an AF. SEA is 3-7 ATS as a non-div HD. WAS has the #10 & #4 units (+0 TO’s) vs SEA #31 & #28 units (-3 TO’s). This is the 1st road game for WAS in 27 days who is in a tough spot off a SNF game vs DAL with a HG vs the Giants on deck. RB Portis admitted he had a Grade 2 MCL sprain LW & his status is unknown here. SEA got QB Hasselbeck & WR Branch back LW. SEA found themselves down 26-7 at the start of the 4Q but rallied to within 6 thanks to 2 drives of 11 & 14 yds setup by ARZ fumbles. Hasselbeck was rusty as expected with 170 yds passing (59%) & a 1-3 ratio. SEA only has 2 games of 300 yds of offense & if those are removed they have been outgained 400-223 TY losing by an avg score of 26-15. SEA’s season is basically over as they can’t catch ARZ but WAS remains in the playoff hunt. Despite the long trip the Skins gets the win & look for a good effort by the defense here.

Indianapolis at SAN DIEGO - This is the 5th meeting in 5 years with SD (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS) winning both games LY. SD got the 1st win on a rainy SNF game vs an IND team w/o 9 starters. IND dominated statistically (25-11 FD 386-177 yd edges) but Manning had a 2-6 ratio. SD was on the short end of the injury stick in the Div Playoff game as Tomlinson aggravated a knee injury & Rivers was KO’d late in the game with a torn ACL. Manning threw 2 int inside the SD12 & the defense gave up a 78 yd drive to #2 QB Volek. SD’s defense isn’t as ball hawking as LY’s but Manning is having his worst year since being a rookie. SD is off another tough loss LW vs PIT losing on a FG with :11 left. IND got the best of a HOU team that couldn’t sustain the shootout & they were without FS Sanders again LW who may miss here. Which defense will own up & make the stops in a game that will determine some Wild Card tie breakers.

Green Bay at NEW ORLEANS - This game has a playoff elimination feel with both teams having major defensive issues. GB has an elite secondary but their front 7 is allowing 147 ypg (4.9) rushing TY. NO has gone thru 4 different starting sets at CB & has allowed 235 ypg passing (57%) with a 16-7 ratio. Both teams are off big wins to get their minds right & while NO is counting on RB Bush to return this game will come down to which QB can exploit the opposing defenses weakness here.

Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. An * denotes an estimated line.The 3* Totals are 19-14 58%. Here are this week's plays

3* Texans/Browns OVER 48*
3* Jets/Titans OVER 40
3* Bears/Rams OVER 44*
2* Bills/Chiefs OVER 44*
2* Redskins/Seahawks UNDER 43*

THE SPORTS MEMO

ED CASH
IOWA STATE +10 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Iowa State
Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is questionable for this game after suffering a concussion last week against Nebraska. But even if he is 100% healthy, this line is much too high. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this season finale, as both have suffered through terrible seasons in the Big XII. They have been overwhelmed on defense for much of the season and have each allowed almost 5,000 yards. Most pundits regard Freeman as an NFL prospect, but a 16-to-8 TD ratio in a conference littered with poor secondaries is nothing to write home about. Iowa State QB Austin Arnaud, who few could point out of a line-up, actually has posted better numbers over the last three weeks. Kansas State had just 247 total yards last week in its 56-28 loss to Nebraska while Iowa State had 444 yards in a losing effort to Missouri, 52-20. To me, that tells us that one team is playing hard and the other had given up on the season. This is KSU head coach Ron Prince’s final game but it doesn’t look as if this team will rally around him. Take the points in this battle of Big XII have-nots as Iowa State ends the year on a positive note.

BRENT CROW
NC STATE +11 AT NORTH CAROLINA
Recommendation: NC State
After watching the ACC this season, I think I would take 11 points with almost any team and I will certainly grab double-digits with the improving NC State Wolfpack against their arch-rivals from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels basically fell out of the ACC Coastal Division race with their loss last week at Maryland. North Carolina now needs to win out and have Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech lose at least once, which is certainly possible. They have to be disappointed after losing a tough, physical game to the Terps while NC State won its second straight game last week, beating Wake Forest, 21-17. NC State has gotten healthy in recent weeks and the steady improvement of freshman QB Russell Wilson has also keyed their turnaround. Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last six games. NC State has covered its last five games, all as conference underdogs and they should have a chance to win this one straight up. State snapped a three-game losing streak to the Tar Heels last year, winning 31-27 in Raleigh as a 3-point favorite. There is no reason for the two-touchdown swing in the pointspread this week.

MARTY OTTO
BOSTON COLLEGE AT WAKE FOREST -2.5
Recommendation: Wake Forest
Boston College beat Florida State on the road last week while Wake was busy losing at NC State. The topsy-turvy ACC now sets up with BC controlling its own destiny in the division, which is quite remarkable when you look at the team. They don’t have a very imposing rushing attack, QB Chris Crane has the second worst passer rating in the conference, their defense lost its heart and soul leader (Brian Toal), and they are ranked No. 11 in conference scoring defense. They also average almost three turnovers per game for the worst margin in the conference. To date, Wake Forest has largely disappointed with a 6-4 record but it should be in great position to post another home win this week. The Demon Deacons only loss in this venue came in a fluky game where Riley Skinner turned it over on seemingly every possession. Wake leads the ACC in conference scoring defense and turnover margin (+14) whereas NC State is one of only four ACC teams to have posted double-digit fumbles and interceptions. We’ll call for the season averages to play out in this one as the Demon Deacons record a nice home win with a reasonable point spread.

FAIRWAY JAY
AIR FORCE AT TCU -18
Recommendation: TCU
We cashed a solid winner last week with our Newsletter “Perception versus Reality” article as BYU defeated Air Force 38-24. This week we’ll come right back with TCU as I expect the Frogs to fly over the Falcons. I’m impressed with Air Forces accomplishments this season but they have been extremely fortunate with favorable scheduling and opponents miscues. Air Force is in the top-10 in the nation in both turnovers gained and turnover margin. The triple option is a formidable attack for most opponents, but Air Force and its freshman quarterback and running back are about to be grounded by the nation’s No. 1 defense. TCU allows just 220 ypg while possessing the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense (11 ppg) and No. 1 run defense (39 ypg). The Horned Frogs are also 5-0 at home this season and a perfect 4-0 ATS with no opponent scoring more than 14 points. Late season, home teams off a bye in conference action are a profitable profile. Now add in a revenge motive for the TCU’s fluky overtime loss to Air Force last season and we now have yet another advantage to add to the fundamentals. Lay the points with TCU in what has the makings of a blowout.

DONNIE BLACK
NC STATE +11 AT NORTH CAROLINA
Recommendation: NC State
In the entire ACC there is not a single team that should ever be favored by double-digits. Twenty-eight of the 38 games played in the conference have been decided by 11 or fewer points. If we eliminate Duke from the equation there have been a total of six ACC games this entire season in which the final margin was by more than this pointspread. At the beginning of the season, dissension and attrition seemed to doom the Wolfpack to a terrible season. Head Coach Tom O’Brien was said to be in trouble and many felt the program was in decline. However with the emergence of freshman quarterback Russell Wilson, this is a different team altogether. During the last six games and over 175 passes, Wilson has not thrown an interception. This past weekend against Wake Forest he passed for two touchdowns and ran for another on 16-of-33 passing for 152 yards in the upset win. NC State, with a much weaker team a season ago, was able to beat their in-state rival, and with the program on the rise, we see no reason for anything other than a one score margin. Take the double digit points.

JARED KLEIN
IOWA AT MINNESOTA +5.5
Recommendation: Minnesota
Minnesota continues to be one of the hidden gems in the marketplace after another ATS victory last weekend against Wisconsin. For the season, the Gophers are 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 7-3 ATS overall. We’ve spoken many times about Minnesota’s ability to force turnovers (+15 TO margin) and that should be in play against Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown seven interceptions in 11 games. We’ve also seen that Iowa is not the same team on the road going 1-3 SU this season away from Kinnick Stadium. Their lone road win came against the Big Ten’s worst team, Indiana. Minnesota WR Eric Decker is listed as questionable this weekend as he attempts to come back from a high ankle sprain. Decker is second in the Big Ten in receiving yards and touchdowns. Having him would be a big boost but Minnesota showed last week they are able to survive without him after a 32-point effort at Wisconsin. We’ve seen enough out of the Big Ten this season to acknowledge that outside of games involving Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana, every game is a virtual toss-up. This week, we’ll call for the home underdog to cash in with a favorable line.

TEDDY COVERS
WASHINGTON -7.5 AT WASHINGTON STATE
Recommendation: Washington
The closest Washington State has come to a win against an FBS opponent in 2008 is a 25-point loss to UCLA. Four of their last five opponents hung at least 58 points and they’ve been shut out in three of their last four games. This past Saturday, Paul Wolff’s squad gained a grand total of 130 total yards at Arizona State. Starting quarterback Kevin Lopina has a 0-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio and leading rusher Dwight Tardy has gained 353 rushing yards for the season. Wazzou is way off the national radar and it’s probably a good thing because we’re talking about one of the worst seasons for any squad in the modern history of major college football. Yet despite all of its shortcomings, Washington State is once again being competitively priced this week against winless Washington. The last time we saw a team that was 0-10 SU as a road favorite of more than a touchdown was back in 2001 when Tom Holmoe’s 0-10 Cal Bears were nine-point chalk in their season finale at Rutgers. They won by double-digits. Washington has faced the toughest schedule in the nation and is finally in a situation to dominate an opponent. Lay the points with the Huskies.

ERIN RYNNING
PHILADELPHIA AT BALTIMORE -1
Recommendation: Baltimore
A short trek for the Eagles as they’ll travel to Baltimore and battle the Ravens this Sunday. Both teams come in off disappointing performances with the Ravens losing to the Giants and the Eagles recording a tie against the Bengals. The Ravens’ performance against New York was in my mind excusable when you consider their strenuous schedule of late. Amazingly, five of their last six games have been played on the road and I’ll call for their strong home turf to provide a boost this week. I feel the stigma associated with the Ravens -- bad offense, good defense -- is quite misleading.They’ve rarely lost a game in the box score and their ability to run the football in this game should provide a real advantage. Last week’s performance against Cincinnati was certainly a red flag for Philadelphia backers. This is a team that people continually give a pass to because of the division they play in and their impressive offensive statistics but I’m not drinking the juice. Look for the Ravens to welcome the sight of M&T Bank Stadium and win this game on the strength of their running game and defense.

TIM TRUSHEL
NY GIANTS AT ARIZONA +3.5
Recommendation: Arizona
As defending Super Bowl Champs with a 9-1 record, the bandwagon for the Giants is pretty full. They have answered the call against all competition and are in fact the best team in the NFL. In the NFC, the next best team might just be Arizona. Along with Carolina and a healthy Dallas team, they are certainly in the conversation. Both the Giants and Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored averaging 29 ppg. Arizona does it with a tremendous passing attack, while the Giants are significantly more balanced and rely much more on the run. Defensively the Giants are the much better team. They rank second in the league against the pass, allowing just 175 ypg. Stopping Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin however could prove impossible. Last week, the tandem combined for 337 receiving yards and became the first-ever receiving duo in NFL history to each have 150+ yards receiving in the same game. This week the Cardinals are installed as a home underdog for the fourth time in the last two seasons. The previous three times they beat three playoff teams in the likes of Dallas, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Having won seven straight games at home, we’ll call for another raucous home crowd and another outright win from the Cardinals

ROB VENO
WASHINGTON -3.5 AT SEATTLE
Recommendation: Washington
The importance of this game is night and day for both teams. Now off back-to-back home losses and in a six-team fight for the NFC’s pair of playoff wild card slots, Washington enters this contest with an extreme sense of urgency. Seattle meanwhile had its season implode for good last week when they lost to division mate Arizona. The Seahawks put everything they could into that game with a slim hopes of getting on a roll and slipping into the playoffs. But after the loss, reality has set in and a strong weekly effort for the remainder of the season is unlikely from this bunch. Washington’s fundamental ability to employ a power running game with solid success doesn’t bode well for the ‘Hawks who remain extremely vulnerable to such attacks. Their porous secondary could also be gouged for big yardage. Redskins HC Jim Zorn noted after the loss to Dallas that there were multiple downfield pass play opportunities available for his team. His intent to correct some protection issues and go after those vertical completions this week versus Seattle could lead to quick scoring strikes. The Redskins’ rugged defense does the rest as they get the road cover.

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
conference road team from Game Ten
out that allows more than 10 PPG
versus an opponent with revenge off
a win if the opponent was favored by
35 or less points in its last game

Play Against:
TEXAS TECH

ATS W-L Record Since 1980 :16-2(89%)

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

Since 1983, the Tennessee Volunteers are 24-1 SU versus Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games.

SAYONARA

The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams
in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially
holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these ‘value
laden’ criteria:
a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season fi nale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent’s win percentage is .444 PPG, and making sure
we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making
sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we
ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifi es this week.
While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season,
this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s
editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making
statement to that effect

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Fla Atlantic over ARKANSAS ST by 7
Both the Owls and the Red Wolves trail Sun Belt Conference co-leaders
Troy and La Lafayette by one game for the top spot, thus making this a
pivotal game for post-season honors. And in gauging the current form
of both squads we feel the wrong team is favored. After a 0-4 start,
FAU has the look of a runaway freight train, winning each of its last
four games. Meanwhile, ASU has dropped 4 of its last 5 contests after
opening the campaign with wins in 3 of its fi rst 4 games. The history
book comes to our support, too, with the Owls 6-2 ATS as single-digit
conference road dogs while the felines are just 1-6 ATS when playing
with extra zzz’s. Howie Longname’s troops are dialed in to landing a
bowl bid and become bowl-eligible with a win here today. Beware of
the Owl.

5* BEST BET
TCU over Air Force by 31
Better get the rescue crews on standby because this looks like a fullfl
edged aerial disaster waiting to happen. The Fort Worth Frogs are
majorly pissed about letting Utah off the hook in a game where TCU
won everywhere but the scoreboard, eventually losing 13-10 in the
closing minutes at Salt Lake City. The Horned Ones have had two weeks
to stew over what might have been and will bring their ‘A’ game today
against what fi gures to be an exhausted Air Force squad. The Flyboys
left it all on the fi eld last Saturday against BYU, trading blows with
the superior Cougars until they faded in the fourth quarter. Now the
Falcons must close out the season on the road where they’ll bear more
than a slight resemblance to the cattle waiting to be slaughtered at the
Forth Worth stockyards. The Force made the big mistake of upsetting
TCU in’07 as 8.5-point home dogs and our database informs us that
the Falcons are an awful 1-17 ATS when they lose SU off a SUATS loss
versus an avenging foe. And make no mistake about it, Air Force WILL
lose this game. The Froggies have held 10 of 11 foes to season low – or
2nd low – yards this year and the nation’s best rush defense (just 39
YPG) fi gures to stymie the Flyboys’ only form of attack. TCU has cashed
in 4 of the 5 most recent series meetings and own an identical 4-1 ATS
record in Last Home Games. Look for Gary Patterson’s Frogs to reach
the 10-win plateau for the third time in the last four years with a notso-
Christian destruction of the fading jet jockeys

4* BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech by 17
It’s put up or shut up time for the new kids on the BCS block and Texas
Tech couldn’t have picked a worse venue to defend its #2 ranking.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops leads his Sooners onto the
fi eld at Memorial Stadium this Saturday, it will mark his 61st home
game with OU. Stoops’ SU record in the previous 60 games? Try 58-
2 – including 23 wins in a row – plus he’s a perfect 4-0 SU this year
in lined games at Norman, winning by an average of just under 25
PPG. A Sooner victory today puts OU, Texas and Texas Tech in a 3-way
tie for the Big 12 South Division title… with the tiebreaker going to
the team ranked highest in BCS standings. There are numbers aplenty
surrounding this matchup and the majority of them suggest hitching a
ride with the Sooner Schooner. For openers, Texas Tech is an anemic 2-
7 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points, 2-5 ATS away with
rest and Red Raider head coach Mike Leach – who served as Stoops’
offensive coordinator for one year before bolting to Lubbock in 2000
– stands just 1-6 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points off
a bye week. Meanwhile, Stoopsie is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when his team
owns a win percentage of .900 or greater versus an undefeated foe off
a win of 28 or more points. He’s also 6-1 ATS at home with conference
revenge, a situation that comes into play thanks to TTRR’s 34-27 defeat
of OU as 7.5-point home dogs in ’07. The icing on the cake comes in
the form of this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 that instructs
us to fade the Red Raiders. And even though Tech features a pair of
potential Heisman fi nalists (QB Harrell and WR Crabtree) compared
to just one for Oklahoma (QB Bradford), we think Stoops will spoil
Leach’s perfect season with a convincing double-digit smackdown.

3* BEST BET

Ole Miss over LSU by 6
You’d be hard pressed to fi nd a better coaching job in college football
this year than the one turned in by Houston Nutt at Ole Miss. In three
seasons under Nutt’s predecessor, Ed Orgeron, the Rebels struggled to
a pathetic 10-25 SU overall record while winning just THREE TIMES in
24 SEC skirmishes. This season alone, Nutt has steered Ole Miss to a
6-4 record (four losses by a combined 19 points) while bagging a trio
of conference wins. And if you think Mississippi will be intimidated
by going on the road to Baton Rouge, think again: the Rebels lost
by a mere 4 points at #1 Alabama just three weeks after conquering
#4 Florida at The Swamp! Yes, LSU did rise from the dead last week
against Troy, erasing an incredible 31-3 third quarter defi cit to score
a 40-31 win – the greatest comeback in school history. Ah, but such
events often exact a stiff price the following week and that’s not what
the Tigers need against an Ole Miss squad that’s cashed 6 of the last 7
series get-togethers (6-0 ATS L6 at Death Valley). The Bayou Bengals
are also hamstrung by a seemingly unthinkable 1-15 ATS record
in their last 16 home games against SEC opposition. The only thing
missing here is value (Rebs were 19.5-point HDs versus Tigers LY) but
the way Nutt has his team rolling, we may not need the points. Money
burners like LSU with little focus or desire (2-7 ATS TY) make for poor
favorites… and that’s what you’ll be if you try to coax a pointspread
win out of the Tigers today.

Thursday, November 20th
GA TECH over Miami Fla by 6
If this were the mid 80’s or the early 90’s and GT boss Paul Johnson was
relying on his triple-option rushing attack to put points on the board
against THOSE lightning-fast Hurricane defenses, he would’ve dropped
that offensive scheme in a hurry. Those ferocious stop units would have
been all over his ground game (251 YPG in ‘08) before he got to his 2nd
option (just ask Nebraska or Oklahoma). However, this is 2008 and though
the Baby Canes are defi nitely getting better every week, slowing down
the nation’s 8th-ranked rushing offense may be a bit much to ask in front
of a raucous Thursday night Bobby Dodd Stadium crowd. And speaking
of Thursday road teams, they’ve been a money-burning 1-9 SU and 3-7
ATS off a Thursday home game of late. The Hurricanes control their ACC
Championship Game destiny should they win their last two games but their
youth could betray them here. With Miami head coach Randy Shannon
0-5 ATS when owning a .666 or greater win percentage versus ACC foes
and Johnson 15-5 ATS with rest (11-2 as chalk), we’ll look for the hosts’
running game to operate with more precision and eventually wear down
the resurgent visitors

Friday, November 21st
TOLEDO over Miami Ohio by 3
With both teams branded by the shame of identical 2-8 season marks, we’ll
be surprised if either squad shows any interest or intensity in this snoozer
(mercifully, this game will not be televised on ESPN). Toledo certainly has
more incentive: head coach Tom Amstutz will abdicate his throne at season’s
end but can we really trust ‘Tommy Large’ in a lame duck chalk role? With
the Rockets closing out the campaign at home again next week, we’d rather
try Tom as a home dog against Bowling Green when the fi nal curtain falls
on his 8-year head coaching run. UT does own a money-making 13-2 ATS
record as chalk off a double-digit defeat but the RedHawks counter with a
recent 3-0 SUATS series dominance. All things considered, we’ll opt to do our
impression of Bradbury Robinson back in 1906 and ‘pass’.

Buffalo over BOWLING GREEN by 1
Unlike the MAC road kill mentioned above, we wouldn’t mind checking
out this tussle between East Division leading Buffalo and 2nd place
Bowling Green. Head coach Turner Gill has worked wonders with the Bulls
in just three seasons, improving from a 2-10 SU start in 2006 to winning
the team’s 4th game in a row in ’08 last week to become bowl eligible.
Tonight’s trip to Bowling Green marks the fi nal stop on Buffalo’s 2008
‘Revenge Tour’ and the Bison have rolled to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark against
their earlier opponents in that role (UB has also cashed six in a row as a
road dog). Yes, the Bee Gees can qualify for postseason play with a victory
here but with Buffalo coach Gill being the answer to this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2, we’d rather go running with the Bulls than take fl ight
with the Falcons.

SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
Fresno State limped its way to bowl eligibility with a win over New Mexico
State last week but Pat Hill’s current team looks more like shelter mutts
than the best-in-show Bulldogs that bullied their way to a 9-4 campaign in
’07. One of those wins was a merciless 30-0 thrashing of San Jose State so
you know Spartan coach Dick Tomey will have his team breathing fi re for
this rematch – if he can get his boys to shake off back-to-back losses where
they were outscored 62-17. SJSU already owns the six wins needed to go
bowling but may need a seventh win to seal the deal following that pair of
ugly defeats. With the series visitor posting a weak 1-5 ATS mark lately and
San Jose State proudly displaying a 3-0 SUATS record in its most recent Last
Home Game scenarios, we’ll look for a Spartan effort from the home team
tonight.