Newsletters 11/18 - 11/23

TEMPLE over E Michigan by 11
Two more teams that will be cleaning out their lockers at the end of Game
Twelve. At least Temple still seems to have a little fi ght left: the Owls shook
off the previous week’s heartbreaking loss to Navy to rally from 18 points
down against Kent State but the Flashes nailed a late fi eld goal to steal
the win. Results like that have made Temple the tough luck poster boys for
2008. Five of the Owls’ seven losses have come by a combined total of just 18
points and three of those defeats came on the game’s fi nal play! Meanwhile,
the nose-diving Eagles have gone 3-18 SU in their last 21 road games and
have been whipped by 3 TDs in their last two outings this season. A win here
for Temple and next week at home against Akron would give the Owls 5
wins, their most since 1990. In what will likely be EMU coach Jeff Genyk’s last
fl ight away from Ypsilanti with his Eagles, expect the Owls to rule the roost
– but not by a big enough margin to ring the register.

RUTGERS over Army by 11
It could be time for the FDA to stage a surprise inspection to see if Rutgers
head coach Greg Schiano has been spiking his team’s pre-game meals. Five
weeks ago, the red-faced Knights were just 1-5 on the season and looked as
lost as a bunch of New Jersey National Guardsmen in downtown Baghdad.
But lo and behold, QB Mike Teel rediscovered his deft passing touch and
Rutgers went on a 4-game tear, culminated by last week’s jaw-dropping 49-
16 destruction of South Florida, a team previously ranked in the Top Ten that
also had the advantage of a bye week to prepare for the Knights’ arrival in
Tampa. Off that shocking upset and a revenger against Louisville on deck
for next week, Rutgers should bag win No. 6 here against Army, a team that
Schiano has crushed in three prior meetings by an average score of 40-9.
However, the problem here is the hefty price. Army has also rebounded from
a slow start to hold three of its last fi ve opponents to season low yards and
the Cadets have cashed in all three tries this year as dogs of more than 10
points. When it comes to today’s color choice for body armor, we’ll go with
basic black over red and follow the infantry into battle.

Illinois over NORTHWESTERN by 6
Northwestern’s 5th-year senior QB C.J. Bacher had been MIA over the past
few weeks but he returned in time to fi re a pair of 3rd-quarter TD passes
against Michigan that turned a 14-7 defi cit into a 21-14 victory, leading the
Purple Cats to their fi rst 8-win season since 2000. Meanwhile, things went
from bad to worse for the Illini. A 30-20 home loss to Ohio State marked
Illinois’ third loss in its last four games and if Ron Zook’s squad doesn’t declaw
the Wildcats here they will become the fi rst team since 1955 Michigan
to fi nish with a losing record after playing in the Rose Bowl the previous year
(gee, funny how the words ‘Michigan’ and ‘losing’ are suddenly becoming
synonymous). Yes, it’s ‘Bowl Eligible or Bust’ for the Fighting Illini in their Big
10 season-ender but with fi ve ‘In The Stats’ wins in their previous six games
– added to Northwestern’s 0-5 ITS mark in the Wildcats’ last fi ve contests
– we wouldn’t be surprised to see Juice Williams squeeze out a big victory
(and a cover) today at windy Ryan Field.

CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh by 4
While the preseason pundits expected this season’s Big East race to be
decided by South Florida and West Virginia, these two party-crashers are
set to slug it out for the loop’s top spot instead. Currently side-by-side in
the new BCS rankings (UC #19, Pitt #20), the Bearcats and Panthers have
exhibited similar amounts of grit and determination this season while
separating themselves from other conference pretenders. Cincinnati’s
Brian Kelly is right on course to equal or surpass last year’s 10-3 record but
he’ll have to overcome some mighty strong Pittsburgh numbers to do so.
Amazingly, Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt has won and covered in all three slugfests
with the Queen City crew and his squad upset the Bearcats, 24-17, as 9.5-
point home dogs in ’07. Even better, the dog is 8-2 ATS in Panthers games
this year and the Black Cats are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four appearances
as pups since their season-ending upset win over WVU as 28.5-point dogs
last year. Cincinnati has compiled a strong 9-3 ATS mark as chalk when
playing with conference revenge but this Pittsburgh bunch just looks too
hot to lay any points against. Should be a great game to watch but we’ll
keep the wallet closed for now.

Boston College over WAKE FOREST by 3
The best thing about this matchup for Wake Forest is the location. The
maddeningly inconsistent Deacons have dropped three straight road games
both SU and ATS so they’ll love being back in Winston-Salem where they’re
5-0 ATS lately as conference home chalk of 7 points or less. The Deacs have
also cashed 4 of the last 5 series meetings and the Bostonians should take
note that teams playing off an upset of Florida State are just 1-7 ATS versus
an opponent off a SU loss. But as enticing as all that may be, the Eagles
show up today as quite a rare animal – an underdog owning both the
better offense AND defense. The Everly Brothers may have thought their
“bird dog was on the wrong trail” but this particular hybrid of fowl and
canine is very much to our liking. Deacons sink to 1-5 ATS in their last six
shots at the Big Board.

PURDUE over Indiana by 16
It all comes down to this… one fi nal chance to get it right and send Joe
Tiller out a winner in his fi nal game at Ross-Ade Stadium – against the
Boilermakers’ most despised foe, Indiana. That scenario is certainly not a
given. Woeful Purdue has visited the winner’s circle just ONCE in its last
8 games, the Boilers are a poor 1-6 SU in Big 10 play and Tiller’s usually
prolifi c offense has sputtered badly, being held to single digits in 4 of
their 11 games. However, the train gang fi nds itself as the avenger in
this year’s meeting after IU’s win in ’07 snapped a 5-game winning skein
by Purdue. Even better, the Boilers catch a depleted Hoosiers squad
that’s only 9-57-2 ATS when losing SU this decade (4-28-1 ATS versus a
foe off a loss). Tiller is 16-3 ATS at home against a foe off back-to-back
losses, including 7-0 when his team is also off consecutive defeats, and
we look for this band of underachieving Boilermakers to summon up a
big effort to send Joe out in style. A SU win here would close the book
on a 12-year, 87-62 run for Tiller; let’s hope he gets both the win AND
the cover.

OHIO ST over Michigan by 14
We’ll never know for sure who’s responsible for our country’s current
fi nancial crisis but with a little digging we could probably round up the
names of the Maize-and-Blue brainiacs responsible for chasing Lloyd Carr
out of town before breaking the bank to bring in Rich Rodriguez as his
replacement. And what did UM get for its new head coach’s astronomical
salary plus a share of the $4 million contract buyout from West Virginia?
How about the FIRST 8-LOSS TEAM EVER in Michigan history? Folks, we’re
talkin’ 129 years here, all the way back to when every man in America
wore a hat. But as Bob Dylan so eloquently stated, “ When you think that
you’ve lost everything, you fi nd out you can always lose a little more.”
That sums up this weekend perfectly for Michigan fans: just a week after
their team established the benchmark for school gridiron futility, they now
have to close out this miserable season by watching Rodriguez get his butt
kicked up between their ears by the very man he was hired to beat – Jim
Tressel of Ohio State. Michigan’s disastrous campaign has removed any
hint of drama from what is usually a blood battle for the Big 10 crown and
a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes can still get there but they’ll need a
win here (no problem) coupled with a Penn State loss (possible problem)
to reach Pasadena. Today’s spread is the biggest in series history; the most
points the Wolves have taken before was +17 in 1996 and they won that
game, 13-9. It’s true that neither team has won 5 in a row in this series
since before the Great Depression (1927) but if you’ve been following
the stock market lately, you know we’ve got a pretty good ‘economic
downturn’ of our own going on right now – which means Tressel has a
good shot to win his 5th straight against Michigan and boost his career
series record to 7-1. But as bad as the Wolverines are, they still pack a 9-2
ATS log as underdogs of 6 or more points and will look at this showdown
as their ‘bowl game’ for 2008. We keep pretty close tabs on the Buckeyes
and we honestly can’t trust their somewhat anemic offense laying this
kind of number in an annual bloodbath. Take it if you play it. After all, this
is still a rivalry game, isn’t it?

VA TECH over Duke by 10
The Hokies have watched a potentially great year slide to a merely
respectable one after losing 3 of their last 4 games to land at 6-4. The
problems are many: an offense that’s scored more than 27 points only ONCE
in the entire season, a defense that’s a few players shy of intimidating and
special teams play – the foundation of Beamer Ball – that’s clearly been
lacking. Not so surprisingly, Boss Beamer’s ATS numbers are beginning to sag
somewhat. He’s 0-3 as chalk of more than 3 points in ’08 and has covered just
5 out of 13 tries as a double-digit conference favorite off a SU loss. Despite
Duke’s savage 31-7 beating at Clemson last Saturday, the Blue Devils can
still become bowl eligible with wins in their fi nal two games against the
Hokies and Tar Heels. We personally don’t see that happening but Duke
does qualify as a ‘LEAN ON ME’ underdog play (see issue 8) and that’s a good
enough recommendation for us to give Cutcliffe’s team a sideways glance.
Hey… no guts, no glory, right?

Florida St over MARYLAND by 1
This series has followed a distinct pattern over the past four seasons… FSU
wins at home by 8 points while Maryland holds serve at home with a 3-
point win. Guess whose turn it is this time? Maryland backs up the choice
with some great numbers: the Terps are 13-4 ATS as ACC home dogs of 7 or
fewer points and they’ve won 4 games SU as dogs this year – for the second
straight season. Plus, last week’s thrilling win over North Carolina marked
Maryland’s 6th win over a Top 25 ranked team (4-0 this year) for a school
record. The Seminoles aren’t quite so lucky in the ATS department. They’re
3-9 as conference favorites of 8 points or less, 3-8 as road favorites versus
conference opponents with revenge and 2-6 before taking on Florida. And
they’re not the dominant FSU squads of old, trailing by double digits in FIVE
consecutive games, somehow winning the previous four before their luck
ran out against Boston College. However, most of our arguments in favor
of Maryland hinge on the Terps being the dog in the matchup. With the
line currently bouncing around near ‘pick-em’, we’ll have to see where the
number settles before going any further.

N CAROLINA over NC State by 8
Fear The Turtle. Butch Davis and company didn’t heed that advice and now
the Tar Heels need help to claim the ACC Coastal Division crown. They’ll
certainly be interested observers when Georgia Tech tangles with Miami this
Thursday – a Hurricane loss might add a little pep to their step for today’s
bitter in-state rivalry. But even with that added incentive, the line on this
matchup appears to be a tad high for our liking, especially since the Heels
are just 1-4 ATS recently as double-digit conference home favorites. Their
1-4 ATS record after Maryland and 2-6 ATS mark in Last Home Games also
doesn’t bode well for Chapel Hill backers. With State needing wins in its
fi nal two games to become bowl eligible, Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien will
ask talented QB Russell Wilson to keep this one close. North Carolina may
avenge last year’s 31-27 setback at Raleigh but Baby Blue’s 3-7 ATS mark
as ACC favorites with revenge doesn’t guarantee that we’ll grab the cash.
Looks like a take.

KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 3
Back when the word ‘Sears’ was accompanied by ‘Roebuck’, the retail giant
used a three-tier system to market their merchandise, labeling items as
‘good, better or best’. Welcome to Manhattan, Kansas, where the operative
words are ‘bad, worse, worst’. Not only is today’s contest the last game for
lame duck head coach Ron Prince, K-State is another favorite ‘leaking oil’
(losing the game stats), plus the double-digit favorite Wildcats actually lost
to Iowa State last year as 15-point road chalk. Even with an upset of KSU,
the Cyclones will merely equal last year’s 3-9 mark of futility – and if Kansas
State is ready to ditch Prince after just three seasons, second-year Iowa State
head coach Chizik now has a more realistic view of where the bar of success
has been set in the Big 12 North. However, this week’s WE GOTTA GET OUT
OF THIS PLACE article on page 2 clearly puts K-State in the crosshairs here, so
we’ll have to side with the Cyclones against the overpriced Wildcats.

Tennessee over VANDERBILT by 3
Knoxville is not a fun place to be these days. Tennessee fans are still shuffl ing
along in zombie-like shock over the rapid demise of the Volunteer program
and the dismissal of head coach Phillip Fulmer. Ol’ Phil gave the fans a
19-8 record to cheer about in the past two year but a poor start this year
coupled with the fact that UT had gone just 4-11 SU against the SEC’s Big
Four (Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU) lately, including 0-3 this season,
convinced the administration it was time for a change. But announcing
Fulmer’s termination midway through the campaign backfi red – the Vols
have gone 0-3 SU and ATS in their past three outings, the most recent an
almost unthinkable home loss to 3-6 Wyoming as 26-point favorites. Even
worse, the bumbling Tennessee offense scored a grand total of just 25 points
in that embarrassing trio of defeats. Lost amid all the drama playing out at
UT is the news that Vanderbilt’s Commodores won last week at Kentucky
to FINALLY become bowl eligible for the fi rst time since 1982. Such grand
achievements usually result in letdowns the following week and with Fulmer
a solid 13-5 ATS off a SU favorite loss (10-2 against SEC foes), we think Vandy
will drop to 0-4 SUATS in Last Home Games after today. If you need further
ammunition to go with the Big Orange, look no further than our INCREDIBLE
STAT on page 3. Wrong team favored.

Arkansas over MISSISSIPPI ST by 6
Forget about striking out in a brothel with a fi stful of fi fties; we don’t think
Croom and company could score in a women’s prison with a handful of
pardons! The Bulldogs’ 7-point effort against Alabama marked the 4th time
this season that Sly’ s boys have been held to single digits and it won’t get
any easier this week against an Arkansas squad that is still playing hard for
Bobby Petrino. The Hogs held high-powered Tulsa to just 23 points in early
November and shouldn’t have any problem shutting down an impotent
Bulldog squad that’s just playing out the string. The ‘pick ‘em’ line certainly
lends value to this play: the visitors have beaten the hosts 12 of the last 13
times SU and have been favored in 10 of those meetings. With Missy State
0-9 SU of late after its annual rumble with ‘Bama – and with Petrino needing
to win his fi nal two games to become bowl eligible – there’s only one way to
go in this dead-even affair. You know what to do.

Akron over OHIO U by 1
The Zips battled Buffalo for four solid hours last Saturday in a valiant attempt
to win their fi nal game at the historic Rubber Bowl, their home for the past
68 years. But after four overtimes, visiting Buffalo slugged out a 43-40 win
to move into the MAC East division lead. However, the Zips aren’t completely
out of the running if Buffalo loses on Friday night but they must still knock
off the Bobcats to retain any hopes of reaching the conference title game.
We think they’re out of the running for an ATS win here since we have a rule
against playing overtime losers… especially as road favorites. Can’t work up
an appetite for a Bobcat bet, though, when Ohio U is a feeble 5-11 ATS with
rest. There are better opportunities elsewhere…

Colorado St over WYOMING by 6
Big implications for both teams but entirely different is nature. For the visiting
Rams, a win today would put them in the running for a possible bowl berth
in coach Steve Fairchild’s fi rst season – and also avenge a humiliating 24-0
loss suffered here in their last visit in 2006. You can forget about Wyoming’s
mind-altering upset of Tennesse at Knoxville… the Vols were so fl at for that
game even Michigan could have won. Nope, a better measuring stick for the
Cowboys’ true worth would be a sickly 4-24-1 SU record compiled in their
last 29 conference games. Even with a win, Wyoming will suffer its fourth
straight non-winning season under coach Joe Glenn and today’s seasonender
at Laramie will likely serve as Glenn’s swan song after a 6-year stint.
Just do us a favor and don’t hire Greg Robinson, okay?

RICE over Marshall by 10
Had we taken the “If you can’t say something good about someone, don’t
say anything” adage literally, this writeup would have turned up blank. Well,
maybe not completely… wins here and next week against Houston would give
the Owls 9 victories this season, a number not equaled in their last decade.
Hmmm… and Rice is a surprising 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in ’08, fueled by an offense
that’s exploded for 46.5 PPG in its last 6 games. The Owls also own one of CUSA’s
top pass-and-catch tandems is QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard
and they’ve forced a whopping 25 turnovers this season. Hey, where have
these guys been hiding? Meanwhile, the Blundering Herd is going nowhere
fast, outyarded by the opposition in 9 straight games and beset by problems
that coach Mark Snyder insists are “self-infl icted”. A hungry home team with a
dangerous offense against a potentially demoralized visitor? Bring it on.

NOTRE DAME over Syracuse by 22
By the time you read this it will be late Tuesday afternoon and the Irish will be
STILL be working on recovering on-side kicks. If it wasn’t for a dropped pass
at the 11-yard line, the Naval Academy might have rallied from a 20-point
defi cit with under 2 minutes to play to stun Notre Dame after recovering not
one, but TWO onside kicks. The good news for the Irish in today’s contest
is that its opponent must score in order to kick off and that won’t likely
be the case as lowly Syracuse invades the Golden Dome. Orange fans back
in the Empire State have been singing “The sun will come up tomorrow…
bet your bottom dollar” since head coach Greg Robinson was fi nally served
with his walking papers this week (9-36 SU record). But don’t feel too bad
for Mr. Robinson: he’ll receive $1.1 million next season for the fi nal season
on his contract. Hmmm… 9 wins in 4 seasons – that works out to around
$500,000 per win… not bad! How does Coach Lawrence sound to you? With
the Orange 1-12 SU and 4-13 ATS in the last 4 games of the season under
Robbie, there’s no reason to believe they’ll come to play this week. Notre
Dame’s 6-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites of less than 24 points versus a less
than .500 opponent seals the deal. Lay it, play it, say it – Go Irish!

Washington over WASH ST by 6
It might actually be time to relinquish Division 1-A status when you’re installed
as a 7-point home dog to a WINLESS team. That’s right, the 0-10 Huskies from
Washington actually show up at Pullman laying a TD to the hapless home
team… and why not? After last week’s 31-0 blanking at ASU, the Cougars
have now been kept off the scoreboard in 3 of their last 4 contests. However,
that doesn’t mean we’re ready to jump on the visitors’ bandwagon in this
battle for what should be renamed the “Crapple Cup”. Lame-duck HC Coach
Ty Willingham and his band of pups haven’t won a stat battle all year and in
the only time they were favored this season they were beaten outright by
Stanford. We’ll be watching reruns of Cloris Leachman on ‘Dancing with the
Stars’ before tuning in to this one but we will grab the bushel basket of points
being offered. THIS JUST IN: winless road teams from Game Ten out are just
7-47 SU… and let’s not forget that the Cougars did hold Okie State to seasonlow
yardage this year. You can do it – it’s as easy as bobbing for apples

TULSA over Tulane by 34
Hold on – we think Houston just scored AGAIN. Our 5* PLAYBOOK newsletter
college play delivered like a 5* should as the Cougars annihilated the Golden
Hurricane, 70-35. Suddenly, after an 8-0 start, Tulsa has lost 2 straight road
games and you can bet they’ll be in an ornery mood in this Last Home Game.
Meanwhile the 2-8 Green Wave are coming off an embarrassing loss of their
own, a 17-point home setback to lowly UAB, and Tulane’s 30-PPG defense
should provide little resistance to a Tulsa squad that won’t hesitate to run it up
big. The Greenies’ 1-6 ATS mark as conference dogs of 14 or more points just
adds more devastation to a Hurricane poised to reach catastrophic proportions.
The hosts have their ‘eye’ on this one – no need for us to look further

PENN ST over Michigan St by 17
Any discussion of the Penn State program begins and ends with Joe Paterno,
the coaching icon who has had his job at Happy Valley for a record 43 years.
Paterno’s contract runs out this season but talk of his future has been put on
hold until the conclusion of the current campaign – or at least until he does
something about an ailing hip that’s kept him off the sidelines and in the
press box for most of 2008. “I’m probably going to have to get something
done with this thing as soon as the Michigan State game is over,” Paterno
said, indicating that his complete focus remains on the Spartans since a
Lions’ win clinches a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Green-and-White may fi nd
Beaver Stadium less than hospitable considering they’ve been camped out in
the state of Michigan for the last six weeks and the ATS archives offer little
support for Mark Dantonio’s squad. MSU is just 1-5 ATS with rest, 2-6 ATS
when playing its Last Road Game and the Spartans have lost the stat wars
in four of their last six games. Joe Pa currently stands 4-1 ATS at home in
this series, 5-1 ATS versus a rested foe and 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS defending
his home turf off back-to-back ATS losses. Screw Joe The Plumber… we’re
backing Joe The Coach in what could be his fi nal home appearance in
front of the Penn State faithful. And should Paterno close the book on his
unrivaled career following the Nittany Lions’ bowl game, we have just one
question to ask Joe Shades: who’s gonna play you in the movie?

VIRGINIA over Clemson by 3
The battle lines are clearly drawn in this ACC showdown. The winner bags
win No. 6 and joins the ever-growing group of postseason wannabes. A quick
check of the numbers tells us the Wahoos are the more likely candidate to
achieve ‘bowlness’. They’re an outstanding 18-3-2 ATS off BB ATS losses and
head coach Al Groh owns a superb 14-7 SU and 15-4 ATS record as a home
dog, including 7-0 ATS off a SUATS loss. Clemmie, though, has failed to bring
home the pointspread bacon as an ACC road favorite off back-to-back losses,
posting a miserable 7-16-1 mark versus the number. We’ll have to back Groh
at home against interim Clemson coach Swinney playing a pressure-packed
contest on the conference road. Cavs git’r done.

CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 3
The Big Game is one of just a few meaningful ‘rivalry games’ on this week’s
slate. And as we’ve come to learn there have been many cliffhangers in this
series including the most memorable of all – the 1982 hasty Stanford band
appearance. Today’s game is meaningful for both squads. For 6-4 Cal the
onus will be on avenging last year’s 20-13 loss as a 13-point road favorite.
For the 5-6 Cardinal this is a ‘must-win’ last chance opportunity to gain bowl
eligibility. Stanford knows how to accomplish the task on this fi eld having
gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS their last nine visits to Berkeley. The Cardinal is also
5-0 ATS in games after tackling USC. With the Bears in the process of pulling
their famous folding act (2-8 SU and ATS in their fi nal three games of the
season the past 3 years), the points look attractive.

La Tech over NEW MEXICO ST by 6
Well, the Techsters couldn’t cut it last week as double-digit home chalk so
we wonder how they’ll do here as road favorites? A quick scan of their stat
sheet shows that they had held their previous 4 foes to season low – or 2nd
low yards – until last week’s win-no-cover over Utah State. And they’ll be
facing a team playing its 11th straight game with no rest this season. Our
problem with the Bulldogs, however, is the fact that they are a paltry 3-17-1
ATS in games after putting 35 or more points on the scoreboard. This could
likely be the fi nal curtain for Aggies’ head coach Hal Mumme, rumored to be
on his way out. If this becomes a ‘win one for the Gipper’ game then NMSU
improves to 5-1 ATS in Last Home Games. If they want Hal’s ass out of Las
Cruces, it won’t matter. With that we’ll make like a vintage Mumme team
from the past and… pass.

Boise St over NEVADA by 1
With Fresno State currently in the tank, Nevada represents the fi nal obstacle
between the Broncos and their 2nd unbeaten regular season under thirdyear
head coach Chris Petersen. In order to accomplish the feat they will need
to get past a team that has been dominate at the line of scrimmage on both
sides of the ball this season. Chris Ault, one of our favorite coaches, has fl own
under the radar this season with a team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in
rushing offense (325 ORYPG) and No. 2 in rushing defense (64 DRYPG). The
Wolf Pack attack is keyed by 6’ 5” QB Colin Kaepernick who is also a top-fl ight
MLB pitching prospect. Kaepernick leads all FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards,
gaining 1,017 yards on 8.3 Yards Per Carry this season. Boise will certainly feel
the pressure from ‘the noose’ as they attempt to stay unbeaten in this tough
environment. To their credit, the Broncos are 7-1 ATS in this series, including
3-0 on this fi eld. With Nevada averaging more than 39 PPG at home under
Kaepernick, look for the Pack to improve to 15-2 ATS in the 2nd of back-toback
home games as Boise barely escapes by the skin of their teeth.

East Carolina over UAB by 3
Former pointspread king Skip Holtz is suddenly looking like pro golfer John
Daly – out of money and looking for love in all the wrong places. The main
culprit is an offense that’s playing like a gang of rum-soaked buccaneers,
staggering to an average of just 15 PPG in their previous three outings. Even
so, we were all set to buck the hapless Blazers thanks to this stat: UAB has gone
0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in its fi nal six games over the past two years. However,
somebody’s breathed some new life into these dragons and they’ve gone 2-2
SU and ATS in the fi rst four of 08’s fi nal half-dozen. Even more tempting is the
fact the Blazers own a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS mark as conference home dogs
when tackling a greater than .500 foe. With the Pirates already bowl-eligible
and playing like they’re lost at sea, we think UAB will grab the treasure by
sending out its seniors with an ATS victory today.

HOUSTON over Utep by 14
Houston’s big win over Tulsa last week (a featured 5* play atop the pages
of the PLAYBOOK) vaults the Cougars into a three-way tie for the top spot
in the Conference USA West Division standings. The good news for Houie is
that they control their own destiny. They will become Division champs with a
win today and next week against Rice. Already bowl eligible under 1st-year
head coach Kevin Sumlin, Houston takes the fi eld with a 4-1 ATS mark in
Last Home Games. The biggest hurdle they face, though, is that UTEP needs
one win in its fi nal two games to also gain bowl eligibility. After a rough
0-3 start, the Miners have come on strong, winnng 5 of their last 8 games.
El Paso is 10-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, too. Can’t see the Cougars
playing to the level they did last week. It’s simply too much to ask.

UTAH over Byu by 7
The Holy War resumes in Salt Lake City and the setting is enormous as
undefeated Utah looks to possibly claim a BCS bowl berth with a win against
the Mormons. If revenge has a say – and it often times does – the Utes will
be primed to avenge a pair of heart-breaking losses suffered the last two
years in this series. Last season BYU QB Max Hall converted on a 4th and 18
from his own 12-yard line. Four plays later the Cougars scored for a 17-10
win. Two years ago Cougar QB John Beck scrambled and tossed a TD with 3.2
seconds remaining for 33-31 win, thus breaking Utah’s back both times. The
series favorite has struggled, going 3-13 ATS. On the fl ip side, though, the
series host has had a reversal of fortune of late, going 4-0 ATS the last four
meetings – that after being 0-11 ATS the previous eleven gatherings. Utah
has orchestrated its own magical fi nishes this season with four wins coming
by 3 or less points, including a dramatic comeback victory over TCU on this
fi eld just sixteen days ago. Here we go again.

MINNESOTA over Iowa by 3
The fi nal game at the Metrodome for the Gophers kicks off Saturday evening.
Next year Minnesota will move to the TCF Bank Stadium, a 50,300 seat oncampus
‘horseshoe’ style stadium. In the process, the Gophers and Hawkeyes
will be battling for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, a award that has been in
existence since 1935. Iowa enters with wins in 4 of its last 5 contests, despite
having been outgained in each of the last four. Hence, they become a road
favorite that is ‘leaking oil’. Meanwhile, Minny looks to put an end to a 3-game
losing streak as they prepare to continue on to the bowling circuit. Given the
fact that bowl teams are 23-19 ATS as dogs in their Last Home Game, we look
for a big effort by the Golden boys in this Metrodome sendoff.

Oregon St over ARIZONA by 1
It’s sure nice to be able to control your own destiny. And when the reward
is a trip to the Rose Bowl it’s something you don’t want to let out of your
grasp. By winning out today and next week against Oregon, the Beavers
would return to Pasadena for their fi rst appearance in the Rose Bowl since
1965 when they lost to Michigan, 35-7. OSU enters on a major winning roll
having gone 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight games. They are also 8-1 SU and
ATS the last nine games in this series, having been ‘pick’ or favored all nine
times. The potential spoilers from Arizona are just 2-12 ATS in Last Home
Games and 7-22-1 ATS as conference home favorites of 3 or more points.
With Zona just 8-34 SU against .700 or greater opposition this decade, we’ll
grab the points with this ‘Puttin’ on the Stats’ live dog.

West Virginia over LOUISVILLE by 10
As the King once sang, “Kentucky rain keeps pouring down”. And not in
a good way for Louisville’s Steve Kragthorpe following last Friday’s loss to
Cincinnati. After dominating the Big East under Bobby Petrino’s watch, the
5-5 Cardinals are only above pathetic Syracuse in the conference standings.
To make matters worse for Kragthorpe, they’re just 4-3 SU at Papa John’s
Stadium this season and the home faithful are running out of patience with
their 2nd-year HC. The Cards need to win one of their fi nal two games to go
bowling but they probably won’t get it done against the Hillbillies, a team
that still has a shot at bagging the conference title. West Virginia has held
its last two opponents – Connecticut and Cincinnati – to season low yardage,
plus they’re an eye-popping 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as road favorites facing
a foe off a SU loss since 1993. With Louisville just 1-5 ATS as a home dog off
a loss of 7 or more points, it looks like Kragthorpe will have to set his sights
on Piscataway the following week to avoid a losing season. Oh, that cold
Kentucky rain!

MEMPHIS over C Florida by 4
Another case of the have-nots versus the wannabes in this Conference
USA matchup. The host Tigers need one more win to become bowl eligible
while the visitors already know they’ll be spending the postseason in
Orlando – not a bad place to enjoy the holidays but certainly not what
UCF coach George O’Leary had in mind coming off an 11-4 bowl season
in 2007. There’s not much data to support either side. The series host can
boast a 3-0 SUATS mark of late but Tommy West’s awful 2-14-1 ATS log as a
single-digit favorite quickly puts us back on the fence. The Golden Knights
did stop an 8-game In The Stats losing streak with last week’s upset of
Marshall but we’re not about to go on a crusade with the 3-7 Knights just
yet. Pass for now.

Unlv over SAN DIEGO ST by 19
The end can’t come soon enough for the woeful Aztecs. Even a miraculous
win here would leave SDSU with a 2-10 record, one of its worst seasons
ever, and probably the last for third-year head coach Chuck Long. With a
recent 5-1 ATS series edge (3-0 at home), the majority of our trends support
the Aztecs – but other angles and current form do not. UNLV must win this
matchup to reach magical win No. 6 and fortunately for the Rebels they
have the best of our ‘Sayonara’ SMART BOX to back them up tonight. Yes,
we know Vegas is a money-burning 2-16-1 ATS as chalk of 3 or more points
but when the sagacious square says to jump in, we usually just roll up our
sleeves and do it.

HAWAII over Idaho by 24
We’ve fi nally fi gured out why a downtrodden program like Idaho fi ghts so
hard to stay affi liated with the WAC: once every two years the Vandals get to
board a jet that fl ies straight to paradise when they take on the Warriors in
Honolulu. Hey, 2 wins this season and a trip to the 50th state to close out the
year? Not a bad deal for the Tater Heads. However, they have a snowball’s
chance of beating Hawaii here. Idaho has lost 4 in a row both SU and ATS
in the series, the Vandals are 0-4 ATS in Last Road Games and they’re a sad
1-7 ATS lately as conference dogs of more than 21 points. But don’t view
this inferior resume as a ‘buy sign’ on the hosts. The Warriors are a not-somenacing
6-13 ATS in conference games when playing with rest, including a
1-5 mark at Aloha Stadium. Still, you’ve got to respect Hawaii’s game effort
after stumbling to a 1-3 start without former coach June Rodriguez, err Jones,
patrolling the sidelines. Fact is the 5-5 Warriors can return to postseason play
with a win over Idaho today or lifeless Washington State next week. Since
Hawaii will be facing the pressure of “just win, baby” and Idaho won’t want
to interrupt its sunny vacation any longer than necessary, let’s call this a
sharp number and leave it somewhere over the rainbow.

LA Monroe over FLA INT’L by 1
The Golden Panthers kept their faint bowl hopes alive thanks to an upset win
over Arkie State last week. Technically they will need to win 2 of their fi nal
3 games to become bowl-eligible. Realistically they will likely need to win
all 3 games. Don’t look for that to happen. Not from a team that allows 100
YPG more than it gains. The reason they are favored today is that Monroe
coughs up 114 YPG more than it manufactures. The Warhawks were waxed,
59-0, last week at Ole Miss. The good news, though, is that they are 4-0 ATS
in games after being blanked. They also happen to be an eye-opening 16-3
ATS as road dogs of less than 14 points off a loss. Given the fact that FIU has
NEVER been favored in this series, look for Monroe to absorb any kind of
shock the Panthers may be entertaining.

MID TENN ST over N Texas by 14
Despite knocking off Maryland in Week Two of the season, a disappointing
4-6 record by the Blue Raiders likely means they will be home once again
for the holidays this season. One thing is for certain today, though, and it’s
the fact they struggle in games against the lowly Eagles. Sure they beat UNT
each of the last two seasons but prior to those wins they were 0-5 SU and
ATS in this series. On the fl ip side, the Eagles are 15-5 ATS against losing
teams off a win, including 7-1 ATS away. With MTSU snapping a 6-game ITS
(In The Stats) losing skid when they edged Western Kentucky, 313-281, in
their win last week, we have no interest whatsoever in this piece of chalk.
Take it or leave it.

TROY over La Lafayette by 10
Battle of league leaders with the winner in the pole position to grab
conference honors next week. The Ragin’ Cajuns bring the nation’s 3rd
ranked rush offense into the contest, pounding it on the ground for 284
RYPG. Their Achilles heel is the defense, one that allows 429 YPG. Today marks
the 7th road outing for La La, a team that could be tiring out. The defending
champion Trojans are one of only ten FBS teams to have outgained all – or all
but one – of their opponents this season. They are also 4-0 SU and ATS when
.400 or greater and playing off a loss in conference games. On a home fi eld
where they stand 66-11-1 SU, we envision Troy as a repeat champ.

Sunday, November 23rd
S FLORIDA over Connecticut by 1
How the mighty have fallen. After going 23-8 SU behind QB Mat Grothe the
last two-plus seasons, the Bulls have suddenly become sterile. That’s what
happens when you lose 4 of your last 5 games, with the only victory coming
over lowly Syracuse. The cause for the downfall is simple. Grothe tossed 3 INTs
in his fi rst 7 games and 8 in his last 3 contests. To make matters worse, USF is
0-5 ATS at home after allowing 28 or more points. They enter the weekend
tied with Louisville and Syracuse with just one conference win apiece. Yes,
they have revenge from a 22-15 loss at UConn last season but they are just
1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in revenge games this campaign. Look for the sled dogs
to improve to 8-0 ATS against winning teams that are off a double-digit loss
here this evening. Grab the points with the hard-trying Huskies.

5* BEST BET
New England over MIAMI by 14
Last week we tagged Denver as a Best Bet on these pages, citing
upstart Atlanta in a ‘step-up’ game. This is last week’s game in spades.
It starts with the fact that NFL home favorites who won 1 or 0 games
last year are 3-12 ATS when hosting an opponent off a loss (FYI: the
Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in that role this year). Then there’s that little
matter of revenge from a 38-13 loss New England suffered in Week
Three in Foxborough as 12.5-point favorites. Tie that in to the Pats’
14-5 ATS mark in division revenge games under Bill Belichick, including
9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Finally, toss in New England’s 11-0
ATS mark as a pick-or-dog off a loss in which they allowed 24 or more
points and you have the makings of a payback deluxe. Tony Sparano
and the Dolphins? Fuggedaboudit.

4* BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay by 13
Both teams line up under the Monday night lights off double-digit wins
and covers last week, jockeying for position in this year’s playoff picture
with four other teams each with 5 wins on the season. Thus, this is a
crucial game for both clubs. The 5-5 Pack has tanked on the road in
November in games off a double-digit win, going 2-11 ATS. Meanwhile,
thanks to their No. 1 ranked offense, the 5-5 Saints have managed to
outgain all but two foes in total yardage this season. With New Orleans
looking to ‘Prove It All Night’, expect the Saints to improve to 5-1 SU
and ATS at home in the Dome this season. N’Awlins, in a Brees

3* BEST BET
Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO by 10
All we can say is if Tommy Bowden, Phil Fulmer, Ron Prince, Brent Guy,
Greg Robinson and Tyrone Willingham can get pink-slipped during
the season then Norv Turner should be glad he’s not a college coach.
Otherwise he’d be pretty in pink, too. Picked by many to represent the
AFC in this year’s Super Bowl, the Chargers are 4-6 and praying last
year’s season-ending 6-0 fi nish is still engrained in the minds of this
year’s team. Sure, there have been some tough losses but when you’re
allowing 36 YPG more than you’re gaining there are no excuses. Enter
the Colts with double revenge from last year. The latter loss occurred
as 10.5-points favorites in the playoffs, sending them home one-anddone.
Indy’s 6-0 ATS mark in revenge games against losing teams sets
the table. Turner’s 4-9 SU and ATS mark as a favorite of 3 or less points
in games off a loss cements it. Get the slip out.
Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO by 10

Thursday, November 20th

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 7
Some say playing to a tie is like kissing your sister. Not for NFL teams sporting
losing records. No siree. A tie is like a win to these guys. That’s confi rmed by
their inspired play in follow up games where losing teams are 10-4 ATS as
dogs in games off a tie, winning six games straight-up on the fi eld. While the
Steelers bring the league’s No. 1 ranked defense into this fray, the fact of the
matter is they are 1-7 ATS under head coach Mike Tomlin in games off a win
versus an avenging opponent that has won at least one game on the season.
Come here sis and gimme a kiss.

Sunday, November 23rd

CLEVELAND over Houston by 1
This is a ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’ scenario for the young Browns. That’s
because in their expansion history they are 100% perfect ATS in games after
playing on Monday night (2-0) but winless SU in those same games. More
importantly they are 10-3 ATS in games against teams off back-to-back losses
under Romeo Crennel. That keeps pace with Gary Kubiak’s putrid 1-8 ATS
mark on the road when seeking revenge (lost 27-17 at Cleveland last year).
Still, Houie’s 7-0 ATS mark as revenge dogs of 4 or more points off a loss
against losing opposition will likely keep us neutral here.

KANSAS CITY over Buffalo by 1
Bills take to the road following Monday night’s cruel loss against Cleveland
in desperate need of regaining their early-season form when Buffalo began
the year going 4-0. Since then they’ve fallen on hard times as they are
now on a 0-4 SU and ATS losing slide. According to our powerful database,
there is no relief to be found this week as road teams off a Monday night
game are a paltry 5-15 SU and 4-15-1 ATS if they were riding a 0-3 SU and
ATS slide entering the Monday nighter. Worse yet, Buffi e is 1-8 ATS off
back-to-back losses if favored in its last game against an opponent looking
to settle a score. While the Chiefs aren’t much, they have not tossed in the
towel and Herm Edwards is 4-1 SU in his last fi ve tries when hosting the
Bills. Again.

TENNESSEE over NY Jets by 4
10essee became just the 11th team in the NFL to win its fi rst ten games of the
season since 1970 when they refused to lose in a startling 24-14 comeback
win over the Jaguars last Sunday. It marked the 13th consecutive regular
season victory for the Titans. Unlike the 10-0 New England squad that was
installed as a walloping 25-point favorite against Philadelphia last season
(won by 3), Jeff Fisher’s troops continue to command little respect from the
oddsmaker and the sporting public alike. They burned us as a featured 5*
play on these pages last week and we won’t let that happen again – at least
not this week. While the Jets bring plenty of street cred with a 4-game win
streak into this contest, they did allow New England a season-high 511 yards
in last week’s 34-31 overtime victory. That’s certainly a cause for concern. But
if you’re 10essee you would most certainly be concerned about Jeff Fisher’s
anemic 1-16 ATS career mark as a home favorite of more than 3 points
against an opponent off a win of 10 or less points! Yikes.

DALLAS over San Francisco by 14
Tony Romo’s return was the catalyst needed to lead the Cowboys out of
their doldrums last week at Washington. No longer cellar dwellers in the
ever-tough NFC East Division, Dallas will now have its sight set on securing a
coveted post in this year’s playoffs. The Niners picked up their fi rst win under
interim head coach Mike Singletary in a 19-point romp over St. Louis, despite
the fact they lost the stats, 406-334. No surprise to see Frisco slip to 0-8 ATS as
a dog of 7 or more points off a double-digit SU and ATS win today.

Tampa Bay over DETROIT by 6
Life is good in Tampa. The Bucs are hitting on all cylinders, having held 3
of their last 4 opponents to season low yards. They are 4-1 since inserting
Jeff Garcia into the starting QB slot and currently reside one game behind
Carolina for the top spot in the NFC South Division. Life sucks in Detroit. The
auto industry is mired in quicksand and the Lions are in need of a bailout – or
is it the other way around? Regardless, edges go to the Lions in this game
with Tampa having a revenger against New Orleans on deck. That and the
fact the Bucs are 0-8 ATS as road chalk against an opponent off back-to-back
losses makes Detroit worth a look. With a 6-0 ATS series mark, including 5-1
ATS on this fi eld, we’ll hold our noses and growl with the Lions.

Philadelphia over BALTIMORE by 3
Despite putting up solid numbers each week, the Eagles continue to freefall.
One of six NFC teams with 5 victories, they now need to convert statvictories
into wins on the scoreboard if they want to avoid missing out on
the postseason for the 2nd straight year. It’s our feeling the Ravens are
about to become the Redskins of the AFC. Baltimore is 6-0 SU and ATS this
season against losing teams but 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against .500 or better
opposition. With that, look for Philly to improve to 13-2 ATS as a road dog
against a .500 or greater non-division foe here today.

ST. LOUIS over Chicago by 1
It’s our opinion that Lovie Smith should reconsider the Tennessee offer and
pack up before it’s too late. Since losing to the Colts in the 2006 Super Bowl
his troops are 12-14 SU and 11-14-1 ATS, entering today’s game off a 34-
point loss last week. In fact, Smith is a not-so-lovie 1-9-1 ATS as a favorite of
more than 2 points against non-division opponents off back-to-back losses.
With the ‘Ugly Pig’ Rams 12-1 ATS at home with revenge off a division game,
an upset here just might put Knoxville back in the picture.

Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE by 3
It’s a good thing for Jack Del Rio that Norv Turner still resides in the league.
If he weren’t, Jack would be the leading contender for ‘bust of the year’
honors. Off a 12-win campaign in 2007, the Jags were a hands-down choice
to capture the AFC South Division in 2008. Instead it’s been thumbs down
as Jacksonville is just one leg up on last place Houston. Sure, they might be
11-0 ATS from Game Eight out off a double-digit SU and an ATS loss but
you won’t fi nd us laying points into a team with the better defense and the
better running game. Not with a team that launched a franchise record 10
punts last week. Vikes or pass.

Carolina over ATLANTA by 4
Falcons will dress in the home team locker for the 3rd straight week when
they host the NFC South Division leader Carolina. Like last week, this too
becomes a ‘step-up’ game of sorts for the Dirty Birds. They’ll be looking
to avenge a 24-9 loss suffered in Week Four at Carolina knowing they are
0-4 ATS the last four games as a host in this series. With the Panthers 9-0
ATS as dogs in the 1st of back-to-back roadies, we’ll gladly oblige and take
whatever the oddsmaker is offering.

DENVER over Oakland by 7
The Raiders and their pathetic offense (13 PPG, dead last in the NFL) fi nally
rang the register at Miami last week as the double-digit weight was simply
too much for the Fish to handle. That may be the case here, too, as the
Broncos are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of 5 or more points off a SU underdog
win. They are also 3-12 ATS at home in November off a win against an
avenging opponent. No surprise to see Oakland improve to 11-1 ATS in
Game Eleven of the season.

Washington over SEATTLE by 6
A matchup of two teams going down the drain faster than dope during a
DEA bust. Despite the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks were
pounded in the stats for the 7th straight game as the Mike Holmgren
retirement train has derailed. The Redksins choked away a chance to put
Dallas in the ground and now look to rebound off back-to-back SU and ATS
defeats. The feeling here is Jim Zorn would like nothing more than to win at
his old stomping grounds. Skins!

ARIZONA over NY Giants by 3
A possible playoff preview in the desert matches a pair of Top 10 ranked
offenses and defenses. Big Blue’s road success is well documented (12-2 SU
and ATS away since last season) and they are riding a 5-game SU and ATS win
skein entering this contest. Arizona has outgained all four opponents since
its Bye Week and has won each of its last 7 home games (4-0 this season).
With Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas up next for the G-Men, look for
the Cardinals to have their day in the sun (provided the roof is open) as New
York drops to 2-16 ATS in November off a non-division game against an
opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Zona wins the fi rst round

3* BEST BET Cardinals OVER

4* BEST BET Rams OVER

5* BEST BET Chiefs UNDER

KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

@Georgia Tech (-3½) over Miami
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Pretty big game in the ACC, which is either parityladen or mediocre, depending on your point of view. Maryland’s win over North Carolina was helpful for both of these teams, as was Miami’s win over Virginia Tech, which also helped the Yellow Jackets. Miami wins out and they win the division. Georgia Tech has scenarios that could put them in the title game, and they all include a win here. So this is a big, big game, and it is a game where the unique style of Tech, with their hard to defend triple option attack, gives them an edge. Georgia Tech was a popular “play against” in their game against North Carolina. UNC had the week off to prep for the triple option and the final score of 28-7 suggested that the Heels were the right side. But as I wrote in my writeup against UNC last week, “In fact, the Yellow Jackets all but gift-wrapped the game for the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech won rushing 326-186, total yardage 423-314, and first downs 20- 13, but lost turnovers 3-0, and that killed them. North Carolina used a pair of 4th quarter fumbles (one on a punt, one a running play) to turn 7-0 into 21-0 on TD drives of 30 and 32 yards and then tacked one on after a failed onside kick for a 28-7 win that saw only a single North Carolina scoring drove of more than 39 yards. Considering the scheduling advantage that UNC enjoyed heading into the game it really wasn’t a great performance by the Tar Heels, but to the betting public 28-7 looks like a whipping.” Early last week, Paul Johnson was apoplectic about Tech’s non-performance in that contest. He watched film with a couple of beat writers and even those non-football guys were amazed at the errors on every play. With that film to look at for 11 days, Johnson will have his players’ full attention this week. And the Hurricanes are quite a draw themselves. Winners of five straight, Miami doesn’t have a lot of offense but has been getting by on big plays. Typical of recent performances, they outlasted Virginia Tech Thursday night, despite gaining only 267 yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play. Georgia Tech’s D has a number of future NFLers and should be able to limit the Hurricanes. Thursday outing leaves Miami with less prep time than Tech. And Miami’s athleticism does not necessarily prepare them for the assignment football required to defend the triple option. ACC teams will defend the option better once they see it for a couple of years, but first time around, like right here, there will be times that Josh Nesbitt and company make the Hurricanes look foolish. ACC venues usually don’t supply a tremendous home field advantage, but this may be an instance where the Tech crowd is pretty pumped. Tech has the edge on both sides of the ball in our judgment. Georgia Tech by 10.

Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

@Ohio St. (-20½) over Michigan
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Always a bit hesitant to lay big points in late season rivalry affairs, as the old adage “you can throw out the records when these two meet” seems to hold at least some merit. However, this is one where I think the superior team is going to flex its muscles in a big way. These late November contests are a true indicator of the culture of a program, and I’m not sure that Rich Rodriguez has established any kind of culture to this point at Michigan. We all knew there would be an adjustment period for the Maize and Blue to Rodriguez’s new offense, and we all expect big improvements next season. What is alarming though is that the play has often been uninspired on both sides of the ball this season. The players, especially the upperclassmen, seemingly have not bought into Rodriguez’s system and his methods. Several commentators and our very own Dave Fobare, a Michigan fan and expert, have commented that the team often looks dead on the sideline during games. Sure, this is the game you would expect the Wolverines play inspired ball, and I’m sure Rich Rod will play the rivalry angle and tell the troops all about pride and how this game is their national championship. However, at this point, off of yet another disappointing home loss last week against Northwestern, you have to wonder if the words are ringing hollow. Rodriguez is not Michigan Football the way Lloyd Carr, even when his team was not Top 10 quality, was Michigan football. You don’t get the feel that his players would run through a wall for him (yet), and that’s the type of blind faith that UM would need to be competitive here after the season they’ve had. Even if I am overemphasizing this angle and the Wolverines do somehow summon some confidence and emotion, what improvements have we seen in the quality of their play oneither side of the ball that lend us to think they can hang in there with the best opponent that they’ve faced this year? This is a 3-8 club with 4 double-digit losses on the season. Jim Tressel would love nothing better than to hang a big number here for recruiting purposes and to prove that the Buckeyes, despite a couple of losses to two of the nation’s best teams, haven’t gone anywhere. If he is up in the second half, he’ll want to show Rodriguez and the Wolverines just how much ground they have to make up in this rivalry. No use giving you any stats here, instead just trust your eyes. The Buckeyes are much better than UM in every phase of the game. Terrell Pryor is the monster that recruiting experts told us he would be, and Beanie Wells is back to where he was pre-injury. Before this season, OSU was on a 12-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 17 or more, and Tressel will look to restore that killer instinct with a blowout here. OSU by 27.

Florida St (+1) over @Maryland
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
These two teams garnered a lot of respect from bettors last week. Florida St was a popular choice over Boston College for most of the week, but whennews broke that multiple player suspensions were looming, the Seminoles, or Criminoles in this case, lost some of their backers. There was a huge brawl at a frat house during the week, and as a result of the rumble, five players were suspended. And oddly enough all of them were wide receivers. But their suspensions really had little influence on the outcome of the actual game as Florida St still threw the ball for 212 yards. It was their lack of a running game (73 yards) that really did them in. The Seminoles played a terrible game all around, and as Bobby Bowden simply said afterward, “We got whipped.” BC won yardage 357-285 with a huge 176-73 rushing edge, so Bowden’s simple statement basically sums up how the game played out. But another simple and obvious statement by Bowden, “It was a lousy week,” allows us to give Florida St a pass for the bad performance. We’ll just draw a line through the results, and expect the Seminoles to bounce back strong off the home loss. Maryland was in a great situational spot last week, and because of it, the Terps took some action. We’ve seen Maryland throw in a few clunkers throughout this season. But after those bad performances, the Terps have bounced back strong. And in fact, after Maryland’s 17-15 win over North Carolina, they are now a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss. But that last minute win over North Carolina really wasn’t all that impressive because North Carolina is a team that has been winning inside-out games all year. In fact, heading into the Maryland game, the Tar Heels had only out-yarded 3 of their 9 opponents and amazingly, they won all six of those other games in which they lost at the line of scrimmage. And before Maryland’s 19-play, 73-yard, nine-minute game-winning drive, the Terps were being out-yarded 275-263 by North Carolina. With Da’Rel Scott in the backfield, Maryland has a very good running game. But Scott will face a stiff test here against a formidable Florida St rush defense. The Seminoles allow a sliver over 100 yards per game on just 3.3 yards per rush. After BC running back Montel Harris rumbled for 121 yards, it marked just the fourth time this season in which Florida St allowed more than 82 yards rushing in a game. Harris was running with a chip on his shoulder, “I wanted to show Florida State and their fans how I could play,” because the Florida native was not offered a scholarship by Florida St, the school he yearned to play for. The Seminoles have not allowed a back-toback 100-yard rusher all season, and when Maryland has been held to less than 100 yards on the ground, they are 0-2 losing by a combined score of 54-13. Florida St’s ground game was stymied by a strong BC rush defense, but the Seminoles should carve up Maryland’s 145 yards per game, 4 yards per rush defensive line. Off a loss, Florida St is 2-0 straight-up and against the spread this year winning those games by 18 and 14 points. With Bowden 42-24 against the spread off a loss in his coaching career, look for the Seminoles to bag a win in College Park.Florida St by 7.

@Virginia (+2½) over Clemson
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Don’t be overly impressed with Clemson’s win over Duke. There’s no player in the ACC more important to his team than Duke QB Thaddeus Young. When Young went out in the first quarter with an ankle injury, that was essentially the ballgame. ZackAsack is the backup and he played like he used to as the starter, “leading” the Blue Devils to four consecutive three-and-outs, overthrowing and/or throwing behind open receivers, taking sacks, etc., etc. Clifford Harris, the Dookies’ leading rusher, broke his arm on his fourth carry. Those absences put enormous pressure on the Duke defense and like so many teams that lose their offensive leader, the D couldn’t handle the short rests and additional workload. Virginia has a big edge here with a week to prepare. Al Groh has been around the block a time or two and game planning is not necessarily a strength of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and his staff. Swinney has done a good job representing the school and maintaining some enthusiasm, but he’s a wide receivers coach and a recruiter, not a tactician. Look for UVA to be physical against a Clemson team that is more about finesse and speed. Prior to their week off, Virginia’s 4-1 turnover disadvantage spurred the Cavaliers to a 28-17 loss to Wake Forest despite a 307-273-yardage advantage. Workhorse back Peerman had a bland game, not bouncing back from his fumble in overtime against Miami (first of his career) and fumbling again (second of his career) and will benefit from the week off. Virginia needs a win to become bowl eligible, and a win here off a bye week is more attainable than next week’s game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Last time Virginia had a bye week, they broke a two-game losing streak with a 31-0 stomping of Maryland as an underdog. Can they come off of this bye week by breaking a two-game losing streak against an inflated Clemson team? Clemson has two wins over 1-AA competition and only one of them counts, so they need to win both here and against South Carolina to qualify. Virginia has played mistake prone football the past couple of weeks after a nice run, but expect them to regroup here in a very winnable game. A rested Virginia team getting off to a fast start could do a lot of damage to an emotionally fragile, non-physical Clemson team. Virginia by 4.

@Nevada (+6) over Boise State
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Jeremy Avery rushed for a career-high 156 yards and two touchdowns to help No. 9 Boise State keep alive its hopes of returning to a BCS bowl with a 45-10 win over Idaho on Saturday and also clinched at least a share of its sixth WAC title in the past seven seasons. To cash the big BCS check, the 10-0 Broncos need to sweep WAC rivals Nevada and Fresno State, and probably need undefeated Utah, No. 7 in the BCS standings, to lose. Have to respect what Boise has done on the road this season. Their 37-32 upset win as +10 over Oregon looks better every week, and the Broncos are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season. That crosses up the long time Broncos ATS personality as a strong home team (up to -28) and just mediocre away from their blue turf. But that strong road mark plays into the best tech material I have on this game, a 58-16 ATS system that has covered by an average of more than 10 points per game in the past and is 2-1 in 2008. The last game this system nabbed was Texas Tech's epic 38-33 win over rival Texas. I also have a 166-100 ATS statistical matchup indicator that I've used in this space before which is triggered by the Wolfpack's strong ground game.This system is one of the rare few that has performed better out of sample than overall, a sure sign of something solid. Since Boise State is undefeated, a whole passel of anti-"perfect road team" systems pop up on the tech radar screen. A similar theme is contained in a negative 63-114 ATS contrary indicator that plays against certain road teams with good statistical profiles like Boise's. Boise had owned the Wolfpack until last season. From 1999 thru 2006 the Broncos won all 7 meetings by an average score of about 50-7, with no victory margin smaller than 31 points. But in 2007 Nevada's pistol offense finally grew to the point it could trouble Boise. They won their 8th in a row in this series 69-67 in four overtimes. The game set a record for most points in an NCAA Division I-A game since 1937, when official record keeping began. Much as they have this season, Nevada moved the ball well in both phases, but excelled on the ground, gaining 396 yards on 52 carries. Both teams should be able to move the ball today, but history tends to favor the stronger ground game, and that is the Wolfpack. The call here is for the home team to spring a major upset. Nevada by 1.

@Arizona (-3) over Oregon St
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Well aware that this is a big game for Oregon St and somewhat meaningless for Arizona. Oregon St, if they can win out, will win the Pac 10 title and earn a Rose Bowl invitation over USC because they beat the Trojans earlier this season. But is this Oregon St team really that good to be in this position anyway? Don’t think so. The Beavers have three losses on the year, but fortunately for them, two of them came in out of conference games at Penn St and at Utah. Two pretty good teams in their own right. Aside from their big win over USC as 24-point home underdogs, the Beavers conference wins have come against the worst and most beat-up teams in the Pac 10 like Washington St, Washington, Arizona St, and UCLA. Those four teams have a combined record of 9-32 on the year including a 6-23 mark inside conference play. So to say that the Beavers are a legit 7-3 team is very questionable, and the thinking here is that they are a bit overrated. Oregon St finally beat a winning team on Saturday in their “better than the final score looks” 34-21 win over California. The Beavers scored 21 points because of special teams and defense. They had an 86-yard kick return for a touchdown, a 56-yard punt return to the California 2-yard line which set-up a one play, two yard touchdown drive, and a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown. And their other touchdown came on a 3-play drive after a 21-yard California punt. As you can see, the 13-point win over Cal was due to big plays, and not a dominating performance. And if their offense doesn’t score points in the desert on Saturday, the Beavers have no shot against Arizona. This is a big step-up in class for Oregon St as far as facing a potent offensive attack goes. You have to go all the way back to October 2nd when they faced Utah to see a decent offensive team they’ve played. In that game, they trailed 20-9 with their only touchdown coming on an interception return. So in reality, it should have been a 20-3 lead. Forget their wins since that Utah loss because as we mentioned above, they’ve come against very weak teams. Arizona is not a weak team. The Wildcats have really caught on to offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes’ system this year. Dykes, former OC at Texas Tech, brought the same system to Tucson last year and he guided the Cats to the most passing yards in school history. But the reason Arizona is much better in ‘08 than last year’s 5-7 squad is the emergence of a productive running game. In 2007, they ran for just 77 yards per game while averaging 308 yards through the air. There’s much more balance this year with 172 yards on the ground and 240 yards through the air per game. And that balance will be something Oregon St hasn’t seen in 7 weeks time. Arizona is 4-1 straight-up (lost to USC 17-10) and a perfect 5-0 against the spread at home. Make it 5-1 straight up and 6-0 to the number when this game goes final. Arizona by 10.

Mississippi (+5) over @LSU
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
In the very early 90’s I had a huge couple of years pounding non-conference teams playing sandwich games against major conference opponents. Sandwich games are when a team is a non-conference home favorite in between two conference games. It doesn’t really work any more, as offenses are much more efficient than they used to be, making it easier to cover against inferior competition even if a team is flat. LSU was in that very situation, and were down 31-3 to Troy State late in the third quarter, remarkably coming back for a 40-31 win in a largely empty Tiger Stadium. Is an effort like that inspiring or tiring? I’m not sure (I’m sure Dave Fobare has data on it), but I do think that LSU is in vulnerable this week no matter what the tech on that kind of situation says.Facing Troy State’s conference mate Louisiana- Monroe, Ole’ Miss took care of business in a huge way, reaching the 59-0 final score less than a minute into the fourth quarter. Clearly this is a team that was much more interested in playing well and moving forward in a nothing game against a poor opponent. And in their first year under a new coach, you know they’re having better practices,more attentive meetings, as well as players and coaches who feel that they have a lot at stake. LSU can’t possibly feel the same way. They’re going from the national championship game to a far lesser situation.Ole’ Miss Coach Houston Nutt knows how to get an apparently outmanned team cranked up for a big game. In their first year under Nutt, Ole’ Miss is 3-0 against the spread as a road dog, losing late at Wake Forest 30-28 as a 7½-point dog. Winning outright at Florida 31-30 as a 22-point dog, and taking 12-point favorite Alabama to the wall in a 24-20 loss. Nutt is 20-11 as a road dog in his career,and nearly ruined LSU’s national championship dreams when his Arkansas team lost that multiple OT 50-48 game the day after Thanksgiving last year.So the coach has revenge and the team has revenge for Ole’ Miss’ 41-24 loss to LSU last year (UM won yardage 466-396). The Rebels had the week off before the Louisiana-Monroe game, and are fresher than an LSU team that is playing for the seventh week in a row. Look for an upset with a team on the rise that is good in this role vs. a team playing for lesser stakes than was expected a few short weeks ago. Ole’ Miss by 3.

Patriots (+2) over @Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Neither of these clubs has anything to be embarrassed about following their losses last week despite underperforming to the scoreboard. The Dolphins had to fight to beat Oakland on a late field goal despite dominating their game (382-186 total yards). It was the second straight week that Miami slogged to a home win over a bad team, the previous week they beat Seattle. The Patriots lost at home in overtime after a monster comeback. New England made a lot unforced errors early in that game and though they came back to tie the contest, they just couldn’t pull out the victory. New England outgained the Jets 511-375 but much of that was in comeback mode. Contributing to the Pats and ‘fins underperforming on the scoreboard last week was the fact that each gave up kickoffs for touchdowns. Patriots have gone from a juggernaut hated by all to a scrappy bunch that is fighting to overcome enormous personnel losses. If you can get over your hatred for Belichick you may even find the New Englanders to be borderline likeable. Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney, are all guys who are out for the season but that just scratches the surface when it comes to injuries (Adalius Thomas is just the latest). Their loss on Thursday night put them back to 6-4 on the season, but in each of their past two losses, against the Colts and the Jets, you can make a case that New England played well. The Pats are 3-0 straight up and against the spread following those losses and that takes them to 15-2 against the spread after a loss since the start of the 2003 season. Using the “Wildcat” single wing formation, the Dolphins ran all over the Patriots 38-13 as Matt Cassel is much better now and the defense will be much more prepared. There’s no doubt that Belichick took this game as a personal challenge after being caught unprepared in the September contest. The Pats coaching staff has extra time to prepare for this one and the proud veteran players have proven they can react well to adversity. Youngsters like Jerrod Mayo and Matt Cassel are performing a lot better today than they were when Brady first went down. Coach Tony Sparano and his team are doing a fantastic job in Miami, but they have not played in a lot of big games where a good opponent was primed for a top performance. And make no mistake, this is an enormous game for New England, and one that Belichick, his staff, and the proud veterans on the defense have been pointing toward for a couple of months. Not only due to revenge, but because the Pats chances in the division would be greatly compromised if they lose this game, as the Dolphins would be one game ahead and would own the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a sweep of the series. With the strong record off a loss and having always adjusted well to an opponent when meeting them for the second time in a season, we’ll look for the Patriots to exact their revenge over the Fish today. Patriots by 6.

Eagles (+1) over @Ravens
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
It’s hard to imagine that an NFL quarterback making over 5 million dollars per season doesn’t know the rules of an overtime game, especially one that has led his team to four different NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl. But that’s exactly the case with Donovan McNabb. In his post-game press conference, McNabb admitted that he did not know if neither team scored in overtime then the game ended as a tie. “I didn’t know that. I’ve never been part of a tie. I never even knew it was in the rulebook. I was looking forward to getting the opportunity to get out there and try to drive to win the game. But unfortunately with the rules, we settled with a tie.” Is he for real? And to think that we’re going to back McNabb and his Eagles here may be even more questionable. But it is what it is, right? McNabb should have much more incentive now to go out and redeem himself for the awful performance he put on in Cincinnati. He was terrible against the Bengals; 28 of 58 (48.3%) while throwing three interceptions and fumbling once. His three picks led directly to 10 Cincinnati points. While the Eagles offense sputtered, their defense played tremendously. The Eagles held the Bengals to only 282 yards of total offense on just 3.4 yards per play including 56 yards on the ground on a miniscule 1.9 yards per rush. They had an impressive eight sacks in the game, which brings their total for the year up to a league leading 36. And that’s the key part of this game. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will confuse the heck out of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco with his multiple looks. Veteran QB’s can’t handle Johnson’s pressure, so there’s no way a rookie with 10 games under his belt will. Last week against another formidable sack unit in the Giants, Flacco was able to avoid the sacks (just one). But the pressure forced him into throwing two costly interceptions. We can expect more sacks and picks from Flacco here. Baltimore’s 4-game win and cover streak came to a screeching halt in the Meadowlands. And of no surprise, the Ravens offense wasn’t putting up big points because they didn’t win the turnover battle. Instead, they lost it 2- 1, and only put up 10 points. Over their four-game run, the Ravens scored 27 points or more in every game because they had an 8-2-turnover edge. Turnovers are not predictable, but considering the Eagles are off a 4 turnover game and the Ravens good fortune of getting turnovers was snapped, we can make an educated guess that this will not be another turnover aided game for Baltimore. Rather, let’s go out on a limb and say the Eagles win the turnover battle because of the pressure their defense will put on quarterback Joe Flacco. As most rookies do around this time of the season, Flacco may have started to hit the wall last week. With Philadelphia off an embarrassing game, and Baltimore’s gift-wrapped winning streak over, look for the better team to get a comfortable win. Eagles by 7.

Vikings (+2½) @Jaguars
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Simply going to back the better team here in an underdog role in a game that they must have to stay in the playoff race. Jacksonville, for all intensive purposes, just lost their Super Bowl this past weekend. They had a chance to redeem themselves for a bad first half of the season and start a second half run. They were on their strong home field playing with revenge against the NFL’s best team (for my money it’s the Giants, but we are talking record-wise here). They had the Titans on the ropes, leading by 11 at the half, but were unable to put their division rival away. I expect a bit of a letdown here, as this team who’s been to the postseason 2 out of the past 3 seasons, is all bit eliminated this year. The Jags simply aren’t the same team this season, and much of their fall can be attributed to an offensive line that has been without 3 starters and as many as 5 of the top 8 due to injury. This has led to a 35 yards per game decrease on offense, while their defense surprisingly ranks 25th in the league at 5.9 yards per play, which continues a downward trend which started last season. They simply are a middle-of-the-pack team right now. The schedule has been tough overall, but remember in the 3 games preceding the Tennessee showdown, the Jaguars lost to Cleveland and Cincinnati before blowing out the hapless Lions. Minnesota is off of a 19-13 loss this past week to Tampa in a game where the well-rested Buccaneers simply took over in the second half. They have played a rugged schedule, and this is a make-or-break game for them to stay in playoff contention. They are as strong as any team in the league in the trenches, as indicated by their +1.4 net rushing average. They should dominate the Jags on both lines, and that alone merits a look when taking points. They will put the onus David Garrard and the Jaguars inconsistent wide receivers. The only area of concern here is their poor coverage units against the Jaguars’ return game led by Maurice Jones-Drew. If they can shore up that weakness here, they are the better team on both sides of the ball, and are catching Jacksonville at the right time.Minnesota by 4

Panthers (+1½) over @Falcons
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Both of these may be winning teams, but there certainly are some warts. Panthers come in off a 31- 22 win over the hapless Lions as a 14-point favorite. It’s easy to forgive the non-cover, as winless dogs like Detroit are a very good betting proposition. Running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams had a great day, combining for 250 yards and three TDs. But QB Jake Delhomme has a second lousy outing in a row against a Detroit secondary that is easily the NFL's worst. While six of the first seven starting QBs to face the Lions this season had career best performances, Delhomme could manage just 10 completions in 19 attempts and 98 yards. Over the last two weeks Delhomme has completed just 17 of 46 throws, and on the season has a 78 quarterback rating that is the worst in his 11 year career. The Falcons managed to lose at home 24-20 to a Broncos team decimated by injury. Kevin doesn't give me enough space or the time to list all the wounded, but Denver has put sixteen players on the NFL injury list in the last three weeks. Of particular interest was the running game. In just the 10 previous days Denver lost running backs Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young to various ailments. They were so desperate they resigned veteran Tatum Bell, who was cut by Lions in September. Yet the Falcons still gave up 121 rushing yards on just 26 carries to a collection of near nobodies led by Peyton Hillis, P.J. Pope, Tatum Bell. It gets worse. Spencer Larsen made history in his first NFL start. Larsen, a rookie, became the first Denver player to start on offense and defense in the same game when he opened Sunday as the team's middle linebacker and fullback. Both teams are members of the NFC South. The NFC South is arguably the league's best division. Its teams are a cumulative twelve games above 0.500 while the NFC East is thirteen games above break even. Winning teams in competitive divisions are usually poor betting favorites, according to a 180-99 ATS system I've been following since 2002. Since the move to the current divisional format there are fewer plays, but the system is solid having rung up a 26-16 record over the last 6+ seasons including 4-3 this season. I have one other tech system of note on this game. It’s a 175-97 ATS statistical indicator that is based on Carolina's rush defense. Over the past 6 years the NFL has become a league dominated by the passing game, yet this system has still managed to perform well, especially later in the campaign. From a QB perspective Carolina looks like an ugly play. Jake Delhomme might be in a slump, but he might also be heading downhill permanently. The Falcons' surprising rookie Matt Ryan has to be a welcome face in the NFL front offices after Atlanta's debacle with Micheal Vick. But on overall season numbers I still make the Panthers a small favorite, and the proven tech systems tilt to them as well.Carolina by 6.

Colts @Chargers under 50½
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
We had the Colts over the total against the Texans on Sunday, but that had a lot more do to with the Texans than it did with the Colts. This matchup is much more likely to see a lower score and this total is quite high when you consider what kind of ball these clubs are playing right now. Indy was vulnerable against the run on Sunday, allowing 7.1 yards per rush. But it was the combination of Steve Slaton’s insane speed and the fast turf of Indy that created that 70-yard TD run against them, and the Colts defense had allowed 3.3 yards rushing or less in 4 of their previous 5 games. And Indy’s D clearly was flat for this game. They expected to win, and they did. But it was just one of those weeks against a middling opponent that happens in the NFL. The Colts have had three games go into the 50’s, their two games against a Texans team that plays very high scoring game, and the Monday night game against Tennessee that reached a total of 52 thanks to three TD’s in the last five minutes of the game.Every other game has gone under 50 and with Sunday’s wake up call and the respect the Colts have for the Chargers D, there’s every reason to expect that Indy will do a better job defensively here. Offensively, the Colts succeeded Sunday because of the competition. In fact they were pretty sloppy offensively. They dropped six passes in the first half and Manning’s timing with his receivers is still off. This simply isn’t the high scoring Colts outfit of yore. And the Chargers aren’t playing a bunch of shootouts either. They’ve played only one over since September, and that game was the shootout in London against a Saints team that gets into shootouts with everyone. San Diego’s 213 yards of offense on Sunday in Pittsburgh we can blame on the weather (though the Steelers went for 410), but it was the fourth time in the last seven games that “high powered” San Diego has failed to reach 300 yards of offense. Chargers passing game will struggle against a Colts defense that allows a high percentage of completions (69%, 31st in the league), but a low yards per pass attempt (6.7, 13th in the league). Remarkably, the Colts D that is 31st in the league in completion percentage has allowed only 2 TD passes all season, while corralling 10 interceptions. The Chargers pass defense has a similar “keep it in front of you” philosophy, as they rank 30th in completion percentage allowed and 16th in yards per pass attempt. That indicates they’re play to keep the receivers in front of them, which not only keeps the clock running,but makes it difficult to score in the red zone.This game will not have the 857 yards of offense that these two combined for in the playoffs last year. And that game saw only 52 points scored in the Chargers 28-24 playoff victory. This almost has the feel of a divisional matchup, as this will be their third meeting in the past 53 weeks. And that familiarity should improve their chances of slowing down each other, especially since both clubs are down substantially when it comes to offensive production.Ignore their reputations, look at what these teams are doing this season, and look to the under.

Red Sheet

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

VANDERBILT 23 - Tennessee 10 - (12:30 EST) -- Line opened at Vanderbilt minus 2½, and is now minus 3.
Commodores are normally a mid-teen or higher dog in this contest, but fortunes of the 2
have certainly changed. Vols playing out the string, with a mere 3 wins, & Fullmer just
counting the days. Tennessee ranks 117th in total offense, with a running game which
checks in at #107 (63 RYpg last 6). The 'Dores now bowl eligible, & have been highly
competitive vs all opponents, but Florida, & Gators are in a class by themselves. Check a
39:18-20:42 time edge in upset of Kentucky, with QB Nickson back in form. Revenger!
RATING: VANDERBILT 89

North Carolina State 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 26 - (12:00) -- Line opened at NorthCarolina minus 13, and
is now minus 11. Altho standing at just 4-6 SU, the Wolfpack have been a pleasant surprise
this season, especially in the battle vs the oddsmakers. As a matter of fact they are a
perfect 6-0 ATS in conference play, with back-to-back upsets the past 2 weeks. QB Wilson
has been on the mark, with 11 TDs in his last 6 games, & that rushing "D" has held its last
2 opponents to 94 & 98 yds. The Heels are heading for a bowl, but it has been the TO,
which has propelled them, as they rank just 92nd on offense. A call for rivalry upset.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89

TULSA 67 - Tulane 13 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 27½, and is now minus 29. There cannot be
another squad in the nation, which is more eager to strap it on & get it going, than these
highly potent 'Canes, who have had to endure a week of living with the stigma of a 40-pt
loss, despite topping 500 yds on offense. Not only was their defense invisible in that embarrassment
at Houston, but they abetted in their downfall with 5 turnovers, & allowed a TD on
a KO return. Have to see return to the form, behind QB Johnson (37 TD passes), & decimated
Wave provides the perfect foil, having allowed >40 pts in 4 of its last 6 tilts.
RATING: TULSA 88

Stanford 27 - CALIFORNIA 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at California minus 9½, and is now minus 9. Cards
broke out hearts a week ago, with an 18-yd TD pass vs USC, on the game's final play, after
deciding against a meaningless FG, following a time out by Trojan boss Pete Carroll, meant
to "ice" the kicker. The Trojans were a 4* Phone Play. So a 22-pt loss to mighty USC, but
just a 51-yd deficit, with a 21-21 FD push. Fact is, Stanford has been more than competitive,
with a combined 2-pt edge over the likes of OregonSt, Arizona, & Oregon. Cal in off
managing just 13 & 11 FDs, along with 173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits. An upset!
RATING: STANFORD 88

New England 27 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 1, and is now minus 2½. The Dolphs,
as a chalk in this series, sure is foreign, as you have to go back to '03, to find the last time
that has occurred. Fact is that the Patriots were the first victims of the "Wildcat Offense" of
the Fish, when they simply blasted NewEngland, 38-13 (as 12½ pt dogs), in front of a
stunned crowd in Foxboro, with a 461-216 yd advantage. And Miami has continued along,
winning 5 of its 7 games, in the interim. But this time Belichick & Co won't be taken by
surprise. Note that they are 3-0 ATS off losses, & the dog is 8-0 ATS in Miami games.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88

New York Giants 31 - ARIZONA 17 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 3, and is now minus 3½.
Can't find many fans who aren't pleased with the fine play of the Cards, & especially of QB
Warner, who has suffered through some rough times, including his stay at NY, when he was
just serving time, until Eli was ready. WRs such as Boldin & Fitzgerald sure make his job
easier. However, the Giants are a different matter. Well acquainted with this field, where
they prevailed in LY's Super Bowl, they excel away from home. In off >200 RYs vs stone
wall that is Baltimore's defense, & own 2nd rated passing defense. NY, yet again.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Utah, Rice, Arkansas, PennSt, NotreDame - NFL: Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NoCaroSt (+13 to +11); WashingtonSt (+9½ to +7½);
BallSt (-5½ to -7); OhioSt (-19 to -20½); Tulsa (-27½ to -29); Memphis (-3 to -4½); FlaInternat'l (-5 to -6½) -
NFL: Miami (-1 to -2½); Dallas (-10 to -11½); Baltimore (Pick to -1½); Jacksonville (-1 to -2½); Cincinnati
(+11 to +10) - TIME CHANGES: Falcons/Panthers: 4:15 - KEY INJURIES: Arkansas RB Smith (shoulder)
probable; Arkansas QB Dick (concussion) ??; BYU TE Pitta (knee) ??; Cincinnati QB Pike (sternum) probable;
Duke QB Lewis (foot) ??; EastCarolina WR Harris (foot) doubtful; FresnoSt RB Mathews (knee) doubtful;
GaTech QB Nesbitt (ankle) ??; KansasSt QB Freeman (concussion) probable; Louisville RB Anderson
(head) probable; Memphis QB Hall (thumb) probable; Memphis RB Steele (hamstring) probable; Minnesota
WR Decker (ankle) probable; Purdue QB Painter (undisclosed) probable; SanJoseSt QB Reed (groin) ??;
SoFla QB Grothe (ankle) probable; WashSt QB Lopina (concussion) ??; Western Mich RB West (ankle) ??
- NFL: Arizona TE Patrick (knee) ??; Baltimore RB McGahee (ankle) ??; Cincy WR Chatman (neck) doubtful;
Cincy WR Simpson (ankle) ??; Denver CB Bailey (groin) ??; Denver RB Young (groin) ??; GreenBay WR
Driver (toe) ??; Houston QB Schaub (knee) out; Houston WR Davis (finger) ??; KC RB Charles (ankle) ??;
NYGiant RB Jacobs (knee) probable; TampaBay RB Graham (knee) out

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

BUFFALO by 8 over Bowling Green (Friday)
NORTHWESTERN by 9 over Illinois
VANDERBILT by 17 over Tennessee
MISSISSIPPI by 5 over Lsu

*Buffalo 34 - BOWLING GREEN 26—Hot Buffalo has won 4 straight,
as QB Drew Willy hasn’t thrown an int. in the streak. Bull RB Starks bounced
back from injury to rush for 171 ypg and 7 TDs in last 3 games. BG QB Sheehan
has cooled with the temperature in last 3 games, and Falcons make more
mistakes than title-minded Bulls. HC Gill’s Bulls have covered 7 straight on the
road; BG is 3-13 vs. spread last 16 at home.
(07-B. Green 31-BUF. 17...Bg.23-17 Bu.30/159 Bg.39/140 Bg.21/30/0/273 Bu.20/33/0/215 Bg.0 Bu.0)
(07-Bgu P 31-17 06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT) 05-Bgu -24 27-7...SR: Bowling Green 4-1)

VANDERBILT 27 - Tennessee 10—Now that Vandy is finally bowleligible
for 1st time since ‘82, must buck lame-duck coached UT, which never
found a QB or offensive identity TY (16 ppg, 3.4 ypc, just 7 TDP). Contrarily,
Vandy’s fast, versatile QB Nickson (118 YR, 3 TDP) had superb performance
vs. Kentucky, with help from gifted two-way performer CB D.J. Moore, who
caught two TD passes at Lexington. Note, ‘Dores aggressive defense leads
SEC in sacks (26); Vols dead last (15).
(07-TENN. 25-Vandy 24...T.22-17 V.41/131 T.28/105 T.29/43/0/245 V.14/26/0/139 T.1 V.0)
(07-TENN. -12 25-24 06-Tenn. -8 39-10 05-Vandy +11' 28-24...SR: Tennessee 69-27-5)

Mississippi 28 - LSU 23—Though LSU staged its biggest all-time
comeback in 40-31 victory vs. Troy, compelled go against Tiger squad that’s just
1-14 as SEC Baton Rouge chalk since ‘04 (0-6 overall as home favorite TY!). QB
edge goes to Ole Miss’ Snead (3rd in pass efficiency in SEC; only 1 int. last 3 games)
over mistake-prone LSU triggerman Lee (15 ints.), who’s tossed an incredible 7
ints. for TDs. And bowl-eligible, competitive Rebels (5 straight covers as away
dog) have much more in “tank” following breezy 59-0 debacle vs. UL-Monroe.
Ole Miss HC Nutt 9-1 last 10 as a road dog! TV—CBS
(07-Lsu 41-MISS. 24...M.25-21 L.40/228 M.28/201 M.17/39/3/265 L.17/25/0/168 L.0 M.1)
(07-Lsu -19' 41-24 06-LSU -27' 23-20 (OT) 05-Lsu -16' 40-7...SR: LSU 55-37-4)

NORTHWESTERN 28 - Illinois 19—Northwestern defense has played
surprisingly well 3 of last 4 games, and return to action of QB Bacher was a boost
to the Wildcats in upset at Michigan. Illinois has managed just 3.9 ypc & 2 rush TDs
in last 4 games, while QB Juice Williams has thrown 8 picks vs. just 6 TD passes
in that run. Illini season has unraveled with 1-3 SU & spread stretch run.
(07-ILL. 41-N’western 22...I.32-21 I.65/321 N.18/69 N.29/49/2/310 I.15/23/1/220 I.1 N.0)
(07-ILL. -14 41-22 06-NWU +2' 27-16 05-Nwu -15 38-21...SR: Illinois 52-44-5)

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*GEORGIA TECH 23 - Miami-Florida 16—Happenin’ Hurricanes have won 5
straight, as former Kansas d.c. Bill Young’s swarming stop unit begrudged foes
just 7 points & 139 total yards during third quarter of those games. Miami’s
offense (only 315 ypg) mostly doing just enough to get by, however. Big plays
more likely to come from Georgia Tech’s tough-to-prepare-for option attack &
soph RB Dwyer (1056 YR on 6.6 ypc). Jackets’ DL is top-notch, and crafty HC
Paul Johnson will have some surprises in store for RS frosh Cane QB Marve (10
ints., only 7 TDP). TV—ESPN
(07-Ga. Tech 17-MIAMI 14...G.22-12 G.50/264 M.38/167 G.11/29/1/114 M.8/18/0/56 G.0 M.0)
(07-Tech +2' 17-14 06-TECH -4' 30-23 05-Tech +18 14-10...SR: Georgia Tech 9-4)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21

*Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 25—Both teams played competitively in losses
last week, but they also each have just 1 SU win in last two months. Miami-O.
has QB edge with either Clay Belton (out injured last week) or Daniel
Raudabaugh, who’s coming off one of his best games (254 YP, 0 ints. vs. Ball
State). Rockets 0-4 SU at home this season and have rushed for just 92 ypg in last
7 TY. (DNP...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-20-1)

*SAN JOSE STATE 24 - Fresno State 17—Though earlier WAC contender
SJS hasn’t been the same since 33-16 home loss vs. Boise State on Oct. 24,
still prefer to buck banged-up (top RBs hurt), poor-tackling FSU (allowing 5.8
ypc), which has dropped 9 straight vs. spread, and is 9-27-1 last 37 on board.
Spartans capable QB Reed & WRs equipped to burn soft-covering Bulldog
2ndary (meager 6 ints. last 21 games!). Additionally, Tomey’s troops eager to
atone for previous home effort vs. La Tech (1st shutout in 40 yrs.!), and host has
covered 5 of last 6 in series. TV—ESPN2
(07-FRES. ST. 30-Sjs 0...F.22-18 F.43/251 S.30/140 S.22/44/1/254 F.16/26/0/132 F.1 S.0)
(07-FSU -13 30-0 06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7...SR: Fresno State 36-33-3)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22

TEMPLE 35 - Eastern Michigan 17—Temple is arguably most snake-bitten
squad in nation (2 OT losses & 3 others by combined 10 pts.). But with Owls
productive QB DiMichele (622 YP & 6 TDP last two games) in a groove since
returning from injury, Temple figures to win handily vs. defensively-porous EMU
(36 ppg, 5.8 ypc), which is bankroll-busting 6-15 vs. spread last 21. Owls a
hootin’ 8-3-2 vs. spread at the Linc since ‘06. (DNP...SR: Temple 3-0)

RUTGERS 36 - Army 10—Return to wishbone-type attack of yesteryear (as
well as a plucky veteran defense) making rested Army (6-1 vs. spread last 7) a
tough nut to crack in 2008. But prefer not to buck surging Scarlet Knights (4
straight victories, 6 covers in a row), as sizzling sr. QB Teel (12 TDP last 3
games!) figures to burn Black Knights’ secondary early & often.
(07-Rutgers 41-ARMY 6...R.25-6 R.72/404 A.20/97 A.7/24/1/55 R.3/12/1/42 R.1 A.4)
(07-Rutgers -19' 41-6...SR: Army 18-16)

*CINCINNATI 28 - Pittsburgh 20—First place in Big East at stake. Cincy’s
Brian Kelly (29-10-2 vs. spread last 41 on line!) is regarded as one of nation’s
top young mentors, and Bearcats own superior passing attack. Substantial
edge to Pitt ground game & stellar soph RB McCoy (1043 YR & 16 TDs). Seniorladen
Cincy “D” hasn’t beaten Pitt and vets will be primed for revenge. TV—ESPN2
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 17...P.26-18 P.46/260 C.28/121 C.21/32/1/237 P.18/29/1/167 P.0 C.2)
(07-PITT +10 24-17 06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 7-0)

WAKE FOREST 20 - Boston College 14—BC seized inside track to Atlantic
Division’s berth in ACC title game with last week’s win at Florida State. Wellcoached
Wake far from out of contention, however. Both defenses are very
stout vs. rush, and each opportunistic team has 29 takeaways (tied for 2nd in
nation). Ball security might prove key, and Deacon QB Skinner (only 1 int. last
6 games) more careful with rock than Eagle counterpart Crane. TV—ABC
(07-BOS. COL. 38-W. For. 28...24-24 B.27/54 W.24/2 B.32/52/2/408 W.45/60/4/366 B.1 W.0)
(07-BC -6 38-28 06-WFU +4 21-14 05-BC -14 35-30...SR: Boston College 7-6-2)

PURDUE 37 - Indiana 19—Most of Purdue’s few highlights this season have
come at home, and the host has covered 8 of last 10 in “Old Oaken Bucket”
series. Boiler 5th-year QB Painter flashed prime form in completing 24 of 30
passes at Iowa, and hurtin’ Hoosier “D” ranks 105th. Purdue primed for special
effort in HC Tiller’s finale. TV—ESPN2
(07-IND. 27-Purdue 24...P.25-24 I.41/219 P.32/78 P.28/45/1/281 I.23/39/1/216 I.1 P.1)
(07-IND. +2 27-24 06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14...SR: Purdue 68-36-6)

OHIO STATE 35 - Michigan 10—This is the losingest Michigan team in
history, but rest assured Wolverines will muster their best effort in attempt to
eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten title chance. However, Beanie Wells should
repeatedly give the Buckeyes ball control, allowing QB produgy Pryor chances
to run and pass for big gains. TV—ABC
(07-Ohio St. 14-MICH. 3...O.16-8 O.59/229 M.24/15 M.12/37/0/76 O.7/13/1/50 O.0 M.0)
(07-Osu -4 14-3 06-OSU -6' 42-39 05-Osu -3 25-21...SR: Michigan 57-41-6)

*VIRGINIA TECH 32 - Duke 10—Don’t relish laying big points with tepid Tech,
as stodgy Hokie offense mustering just 289 ypg. Depth-shy Duke defense has
appeared drained lately, however, and Blue Devil QB Lewis now banged up.
CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. Tech 43-DUKE 14...V.21-13 V.38/99 D.36/72 V.21/30/1/346 D.14/28/1/122 V.1 D.2)
(07-Tech -13' 43-14 06-TECH -35 36-0 05-Tech -20' 45-0...SR: Virginia Tech 8-7)

*MARYLAND 19 - Florida State 13—Terps, who are undefeated at College
Park TY, need victory to set up possible Atlantic Division-deciding showdown at
BC next week. And, as long as scattershot jr. QB Turner (only 1 int. last 6
games) continues to at least avoid giveaways, Maryland (nearly 400 YR in last
2 games) should be able to slug its way past Seminole side that can’t seem to
avoid off-field distractions. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-FLA. ST. 24-Mary. 16...18-18 F.38/154 M.37/92 M.17/35/1/243 F.16/26/0/204 F.1 M.0)
(07-FSU -7' 24-16 06-MARY. +3' 27-24 05-FSU -17 35-27...SR: Florida State 16-2)

North Carolina State 28 - NORTH CAROLINA 27—In the ultra-balanced
ACC, there’s very little separating teams near the top from those at the bottom.
In fact, sub-.500 Wolfpack (covered 7 of last 8) is one of league’s hottest
squads vs. spread. So, eager to grab points with State, as resourceful RS frosh
QB R. Wilson (12 TDP, no ints. in his last 6 games!) fully capable of leading
upset over revenge-minded (but still-maturing) rival UNC.
(07-N. CAR. ST. 31-N. Car. 27...S.24-13 S.43/167 U.20/12 U.23/43/2/291 S.26/42/2/229 S.0 U.0)
(07-NCS -3' 31-27 06-UNC +3' 23-9 05-Unc +11 31-24...SR: North Carolina 63-28-6)

KANSAS STATE 30 - Iowa State 26—Last game for KSU’s Ron Prince. Both
teams happy to see 2008 season come to an end, with ISU having lost nine
straight, while Wildcats have given up 207 points in their last four games. But,
with K-State not displaying much discipline or leadership, can’t lay any points
vs. youthful, but well-drilled Cyclones.
(07-IOWA ST. 31-Kan. St. 20...K.22-14 I.40/120 K.29/78 K.28/45/2/347 I.17/26/1/228 I.0 K.1)
(07-ISU +14' 31-20 06-KSU -4' 31-10 05-ISU -7' 45-17...SR: Iowa State 49-38-4)

Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 17—With offensively-pedestrian MSU
(15 ppg) out of bowl contention following 3rd straight SEC loss, favor rested,
motivated Arkansas (can still finish 6-6) on 9-game series win streak. Hogs own
decided offensive edge with trio of QB C. Dick (2389 YP, 11 TDs), fast RB M.
Smith (113 ypg rushing, 5.2 ypc) & sure-handed WR D.J. Williams (48 grabs).
Croom’s crew a stark 4-11 vs. spread last 15 in Starkville.
(07-ARK. 45-Miss. St. 31...M.27-20 A.45/206 M.31/80 M.29/51/4/421 A.15/18/0/223 A.0 M.1)
(07-ARK. -11' 45-31 06-Ark. -14' 28-14 05-ARK. -13' 44-10 at LR...SR: Arkansas 12-5-1)

Akron 28 - OHIO 21—Akron RB Dennis Kennedy has been on fire in 2nd half
of season, rushing for 189 ypg and scoring 10 TDs in last 4 games. Zips QB
Jaquemain has balanced the offense by throwing for 243 ypg & 7 TDs (only 1
int.) in last 3 games. Akron still has shot at 7-win season and bowl
consideration.
(07-AKRON 48-Ohio 37...18-18 A.35/177 O.33/120 A.17/28/1/242 O.17/37/0/239 A.1 O.0)
(07-AKRON +3 48-37 06-OHIO -5 17-7 05-AKRON -3 27-3...SR: Akron 12-11-1)

Colorado State 24 - WYOMING 20—More angles than would meet the eye in
this “Border War,” with CSU a win away from bowl eligibility (really!) and Joe
Glenn perhaps coaching his last game for Wyo. Do we dare recommend Ram
side that’s yet to cover (0-5 vs. line) away from Ft. Collins TY? CSU more likely
to fire scoring shots, with QB Farris more capable of causing damage than
counterpart Stutzriem, but not comfy laying any significant points with poortravelin’
Rams.
(07-COLO. ST. 36-Wyo. 28...C.22-15 C.52/152 W.27/99 C.16/22/1/245 W.21/34/0/229 C.1 W.2)
(07-CSU -3' 36-28 06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31...SR: Colorado State 54-40-5)

RICE 42 - Marshall 28—Sure, being a substantial favorite is an unfamiliar
pointspread role for long-suffering Owls. But that doesn’t mean rested Rice &
record-setting sr. QB Clement (87 career TDP) won’t easily blow away poortraveling
Herd, who’ve managed just 6 covers in last 28 migrating from
Huntington.
(07-MARSHALL 34-Rice 21...R.24-22 M.46/254 R.27/130 R.30/49/1/298 M.15/33/0/227 M.0 R.0)
(07-MARSHALL -9 34-21...SR: Marshall 1-0)

NOTRE DAME 34 - Syracuse 10—Charlie Weis not out of the woods with
angry Domers just because ND survived Navy scare last week. And Weis
knows what would be coming from the “Subway Alums” if Irish can’t take care
of business vs. Syracuse. Fortunately for Weis, there’s not much “juice” left in
woeful Orange, with Greg Robinson’s imminent dismissal the worst-kept secret
since Madonna’s breakup with Guy Ritchie. Sieve-like Syracuse “D” provides
lots of opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to exploit. TV—NBC
(05-NOTRE DAME -33' 34-10...SR: N. Dame 3-2)

WASHINGTON STATE 21 - Washington 20—We’re not even sure James
Carville could spin a case for either of these “rotten” Apple Cup combatants, but
we’ll give it a try. Non-effort at home vs. the hated Rick Neuheisel & UCLA
suggests winless U-Dub has completely spit the bit for the soon-to-depart Ty
Willingham. And though Wazzu might be down to true frosh Levenseller at QB,
Cougs at least displaying a little spunk in recent weeks with back-to-back
covers. Besides, only one of these two (Wazzu, albeit vs. lower-level Portland
State) has tasted the heady nectar of victory in ‘08!
(07-Wash. St. 42-WASH. 35...U.22-20 U.50/225 S.26/110 S.27/40/0/399 U.13/37/2/239 S.0 U.1)
(07-Wsu +6' 42-35 06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22...SR: Washington 64-30-6)

TULSA 63 - Tulane 27—Potent Tulsa (nation-leading 584 ypg) headed back
home and looking to vent some frustration after 2 straight losses soured its 8-0
start. Enter punchless Tulane side that’s been decimated by attrition on both sides
of ball. Ouch!
(07-Tulsa 49-TULANE 25...Ts.27-21 Ts.49/281 Tn.38/114 Ts.18/27/1/319 Tn.23/39/1/287 Ts.2 Tn.0)
(07-Tulsa -6' 49-25 06-TULSA -17 38-3 05-Tulsa -15 38-14 at Monroe...SR: Tulsa 3-1)

*OKLAHOMA 37 - Texas Tech 27—Offensive statistics for both teams and
QBs are “silly” (Sam Bradford 38 TDs, 6 ints.; Graham Harrell 36 & 5). OU’s nohuddle
offense has yielded only 9 sacks; TT’s spread, 5. Bob Stoops is 59-2 SU
in Norman since arriving in 1999. Sooners seeking revenge for LY’s Lubbock
game, during which Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray were both injured. OU
strikes for more big plays, but Harrell’s decision-making TY has been nearly
impeccable. TT (2-4 as road dog L3+Ys) improved on defense TY, but Sooners
own the ground game that Texas did not in its narrow loss in Lubbock. TV—ABC
(07-TEX. TECH 34-Okla. 27...T.25-17 O.34/106 T.17/53 T.47/72/2/420 O.23/45/1/302 T.1 O.1)
(07-TECH +8 34-27 06-OKLA. -8' 34-24 05-TECH -7' 23-21...SR: Oklahoma 11-4)

PENN STATE 30 - Michigan State 21—Michigan State still has a chance to
grab a piece of Big Ten crown and is very capable of giving powerful Penn State
a game. Spartan QB Hoyer has thrown for 548 yds. & 5 TDs in 2 games against
the Nittany Lions, and RB Ringer is 3rd in the country in rushing. After throwing
for 12 scores in first 5 games, Nittany Lion attack has downshifted, managing just
5 TD passes in last 6. Paterno wins Big Ten, but not in a walkover. TV—ABC
(07-MICH. ST. 35-Penn St. 31...M.21-20 P.40/167 M.39/145 M.17/22/2/280 P.16/37/0/188 M.1 P.0)
(07-MSU +2' 35-31 06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22...SR: EVEN 12-12-1)

VIRGINIA 20 - Clemson 19—Both teams need one more win to be bowl
eligible. No big surprise if up-and-down Virginia, which dropped its last 2 games
after capturing 4 straight, able to ride stalwart sr. RB Peerman & extra week of
prep to small victory at Charlottesville. Clemson speedy jr. RB/return man
Spiller has scored 12 TDs in his career that covered at least 50 yards. But
Virginia high-percentage play as home dog.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 35-8-1)

TCU 33 - Air Force 10—With 16 days to stew over blown BCS at-large
opportunity at Utah, expect TCU to take out some of its frustrations vs. AFA.
Falc frosh QB Jefferson yet to face a “D” remotely reminiscent of d.c. Dick
Bumpas’ voracious 4-2-5 Horned Frog stop unit that tops nation in rush “D” and
has allowed only Oklahoma to score more than 14 against it. With soph WR
Young emerging as legit homerun threat for QB Dalton, TCU capable of
extending margin.
(07-A. FORCE 20-Tcu 17 (OT)...T.20-15 A.42/146 T.32/89 T.29/45/2/320 A.17/28/1/193 A.0 T.1)
(07-AFA +8 20-17 (OT) 06-TCU -17 38-14 05-Tcu +1 48-10...SR: TCU 4-2-1)

Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 22—Acknowledge Cal’s prowess at Strawberry
Canyon TY, as Bears 5-0 SU and vs. line as host. But this is the Big Game,
where anything can happen (just ask Bear announcer Joe Starkey...”the band is on
the FIELD!”), and it‘s not much of a stretch to envision bowl-hungry Stanford
making things interesting as long as Cardinal can establish infantry with slamming
RB Gerhart, especially with Cal QB Riley’s confidence a bit shaky after subpar
outing at Corvallis. TV—ABC
(07-STAN. 20-Cal. 13...S.20-17 S.39/120 C.24/108 C.22/47/2/252 S.21/33/1/196 S.1 C.1)
(07-STAN. +13' 20-13 06-CAL. -29' 26-17 05-Cal. -5 27-3...SR: Stanford 55-44-11)

Louisiana Tech 35 - NEW MEXICO STATE 21—With these two programs
heading in opposite directions, must buck spiraling NMS (5 straight losses
since stunning Nevada upset), whose embroiled HC Mumme about to be
“mummified” by administration. 6-4 La Tech envisioning 1st bowl since 2002.
Fundamentally, Bulldogs dynamic RB tandem of D. Porter & D. Jackson gashes
sieve-like Aggie front 7 allowing a whopping 5.7 ypc. Speaking of sieves, Aggie
OL has allowed 10 sacks last two weeks.
(07-LA. TECH 22-Nms 21...L.20-19 L.26/98 N.36/65 N.29/40/0/319 L.27/47/0/269 L.0 N.0)
(07-TECH -7' 22-21 06-NMS -12' 50-23 05-TECH -10' 34-14...SR: New Mexico St. 4-3)

Boise State 34 - NEVADA 23—Nevada won’t be intimidated by Boise as it
was in years past, not after taking Broncos to multiple OTs in ‘07 and playing
Texas Tech competitively earlier this season in Reno. And Bronco “D” still
probably having nightmares about long-legged Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick
running wild in LY’s shootout. But Boise stop unit has the quicks to somewhat
diffuse Chris Ault’s Pistol, and deadeye Bronco QB K. Moore can exploit
bottom-ranked Nevada pass “D” yielding 318 ypg.
(07-BOISE ST. 69-Nev. 67 (OT)...B.30-28 N.52/396 B.48/274 B.27/36/1/353 N.11/26/0/243 B.1 N.0)
(07-BSU -26 69-67 (OT) 06-Bsu -2' 38-7 05-BSU -20' 49-14...SR: Boise State 22-12)

*East Carolina 24 - UAB 23—Since declining ECU attack (12 ppg last 3
games) showing how much it misses NFL Rookie of the Year candidate Chris
Johnson (787 YR with Tennessee!), willing to “take” with UAB, shooting for its
3rd straight cover as a home dog. Blazers dual-threat QB Webb (130 YR, 154
YP vs. Tulane) should move chains. And with UAB attack displaying improved
ball security (only one TO vs. Green Wave; 23 in previous 8), this one decided late.
(07-E. CAR. 41-Uab 6...E.22-19 E.35/216 U.35/168 E.20/31/0/255 U.17/37/2/128 E.0 U.0)
(07-ECU -14' 41-6 06-UAB -6' 17-12 05-ECU +5 31-23...SR: UAB 4-3)

HOUSTON 49 - Utep 42—There’s no question that prolific Houston, which
has scored at least 41 points in 5 of its last 6 games, possesses devastating KO
power. But even with Coug QB Keenum striking lots of blows against vulnerable
UTEP defense, Miners’ undersung soph QB Vittatoe (25 TDP, only 3 ints. last
7 games) should counterpunch effectively enough to take host the distance.
(07-Hou. 34-UTEP 31...H.28-17 H.56/306 U.37/193 H.23/36/0/214 U.11/26/0/176 H.0 U.1)
(07-Houston -6 34-31 06-HOUSTON -6' 34-17 05-UTEP -12 44-41 (OT)...SR: UTEP 3-2)

*UTAH 26 - Byu 24—Every LDS member from Mitt Romney to Donny Osmond
will be paying attention to this one, with MWC title and possible BCS at-large
ramifications. BYU must deal with rugged Utah “D” that’s almost impossible to
run against (allows only 3 ypc), likely forcing Coug QB Hall to carry extra burden.
Brian Johnson and Utah “O” no mystery to Bronco Mendenhall, either, but Utes’
uncanny knack to survive nailbiters (5 wins by 7 or fewer TY) likely to come in
handy once more.
(07-BYU 17-Utah 10...B.21-14 B.33/155 U.39/115 B.17/41/1/269 U.17/29/2/129 B.1 U.0)
(07-BYU -4' 17-10 06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT)...SR: Utah 49-30-4)

*MINNESOTA 23 - Iowa 21—Respect Minnesota’s defensive effort at
Wisconsin in holding Badgers to a season-low 116 YR. Gopher QB Weber
showed resourcefulness in generating 202 YP & 3 TDs under hostile
circumstances without services of star WR Decker. Also respect Iowa defense
and standout RB Shonn Greene (11 straight 100-yard games), but Hawkeye QB
Stanzi has completed just 49% with 3 ints. & only 2 TD throws in last 3 games.
(07-IOWA 21-Minn. 16...M.18-17 I.40/139 M.33/125 M.24/41/1/190 I.14/25/1/157 I.0 M.0)
(07-IOWA -14' 21-16 06-MINN. -2' 34-24 05-IOWA -5 52-28...SR: Minnesota 59-40-2)

*Oregon State 29 - ARIZONA 27—Will Lyle Moevao become the first OSU
QB since Paul Brothers (in 1964) to lead Beavers to Rose Bowl? We’ll find out
soon enough. And, with Arizona proving more susceptible to self-destruct
tendencies in recent weeks than OSU, Beavs can keep Pasadena hopes alive.
Remember, OSU d.c. Mark Banker’s schemes greatly flustered Willie Tuitama
and Wildcat spread LY, and Beaver “O” effectively probing opposition with frosh
RB Quizz Rodgers’ darting thrusts.
(07-ORE. ST. 31-Ariz. 16...O.19-15 O.41/187 A.27/9 A.18/38/3/222 O.20/35/2/164 O.0 A.0)
(07-OSU -3 31-16 06-Osu -2' 17-10 05-Ariz. +9' 29-27...SR: Arizona 20-10-1)

West Virginia 27 - LOUISVILLE 23—WV trying to stay alive in Big East race;
Louisville (5-6) fighting for bowl eligibility. Mountaineers not the same TY
without coach “Rich Rod,” RBs Slaton & Schmitt, and big-play receiver Renaud.
D.c. Ron English (from Michigan) has stabilized the Cardinal defense, and RS
frosh Vic Anderson (973 YR) a revelation. But Louisville offense lacking
receivers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-W. VA. 38-Lvl. 31...L.24-19 W.46/216 L.27/37 L.27/46/2/345 W.16/25/0/181 W.3 L.2)
(07-WVA -16' 38-31 06-LVL. -1' 44-34 05-WVA +7 46-44 (OT)...SR: West Virginia 7-2)

MEMPHIS 27 - Ucf 17—Despite losing three QBs TY (starter Arkelon Hall has
a chance to return), Memphis (which hosts Tulane next week) can still finish 7-
5 and garner a bowl berth. So, with RB Curtis Steele (1002 YR, 5.96 ypc)
leading the way, well-rested Tigers (DNP last week) and caretaker QB Brett
Toney (27 of 47, 3 TDs, 2 ints. last 3 games) likely to prevail.
(07-UCF 56-Memphis 20...U.28-19 U.59/313 M.36/130 U.17/21/0/288 M.16/33/0/173 U.3 M.0)
(07-UCF -7 56-20 06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 3-1)

*Unlv 41 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17—With SDSU continuing to plumb nearuncharted
depths of ineptitude (Aztecs couldn’t force even one punt from Utah
last week!), we’re not holding our breath for Chuck Long’s troops to finally gain
some traction. After all, surging UNLV in position to become bowl-eligible for
first time since 2000, as RS frosh QB Clausen proving able reliever for injured
starter Clayton. Popgun SDSU “O” unlikely to expose Rebels’ defensive
shortcomings.
(07-S. Diego St. 38-UNLV 30...U.24-18 U.49/275 S.26/122 U.18/29/1/207 S.17/23/1/196 S.0 U.0)
(07-Sds +3 38-30 06-SDS -9 21-7 05-UNLV +9' 13-10...SR: San Diego State 10-7

*HAWAII 47 - Idaho 17—Credit Idaho for at least taking some swings at
favored opposition in recent weeks (Vandals have covered last 3, and 4 of 5).
But after Boise battle, Idaho’s emotional tank could be empty vs. recent nemesis
UH, which has won and covered easily last 4 meetings. True, Warrior Red Gun
not as menacing as it was in June Jones’ days, but weak Vandal “D” (allowing
5.8 ypc) can be exploited by any of the QBs that Greg McMackin might wish to
utilize.
(07-Hawaii 48-IDAHO 20...H.31-19 H.25/91 I.34/90 H.32/51/5/394 I.19/41/5/213 H.1 I.0)
(07-Hawaii -24' 48-20 06-HAWAII -26' 68-10 05-Hawaii P 24-0...SR: Hawaii 7-1)

ADDED GAMES
Florida Atlantic 27 - ARKANSAS STATE 26—Hot FAU has won four straight,
with QB Rusty Smith (11 TDP, 3 ints. during streak) regaining his 2007 form (32
and 9 LY). But this is a tough field in Sun Belt play, and sagging ASU (now 4-
5 TY; lost last 3 SU; lost last 5 vs. spread) playing first home game since Oct. 11.
(07-FLA. ATL. 34-Ark. St. 31...F.19-14 A.35/125 F.39/105 F.22/42/2/268 A.19/33/1/131 F.1 A.0)
(07-FAU -6' 34-31 06-FAU +6 29-0 05-ASU -8' 3-0 (OT)...SR: EVEN 2-2)

*FLORIDA INTL. 23 - La.-Monroe 22—ULM happy to be back in the Sun
Belt after being shellacked 59-0 at Ole Miss. FIU (4-5 SU, 6-2 vs. the spread)
turning the corner after desperate 1-23 mark the L2Ys, and Golden Panthers
3-0 vs. the spread TY in Miami. But QB McCall hitting only 49.8%, with 8 TDs
and 8 interceptions. ULM (11-3 last 14 as Sun Belt dog) rarely out of games
on its own level.
(07-LA.-MON. 28-Fiu 14...L.21-15 L.40/160 F.38/125 L.17/24/0/270 F.15/36/1/198 L.1 F.0)
(07-ULM -13' 28-14 06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 45 - North Texas 16—Since MTS can avoid only
its 2nd non-losing campaign since ‘01, will lay lumber vs. defenseless, careless
NT (49 ppg, 27 giveaways), ripe for 3rd straight blowout loss in series. Blue
Raiders productive QB Craddock & his speedy WRs light board vs. Mean Green
2ndary that’s allowed nation-worst 32 TDP.
(07-Mts 48-N. TEXAS 28...21-21 M.42/132 N.22/87 N.25/45/4/296 M.22/38/0/203 M.0 N.1)
(07-Mts -13 48-28 06-Mts +4 35-0 05-Unt +5' 14-7...SR: North Texas 5-2)

*La.-Lafayette 34 - TROY 33—Recuperative powers of both will be tested
after disheartening recent defeats. But with New Orleans Bowl berth likely on
line, slight preference for experienced weaponry of ULL and sr. QB Desormeaux
& RB Fenroy. Besides, Troy’s Richmond transfer QB L. Brown might need to ice
arm after throwing 72 passes in last week’s bitter come-from-ahead loss at LSU!
(07-Troy 48-LA.-LAF. 31...T.26-22 L.46/345 T.43/271 T.30/43/1/297 L.21/41/2/159 T.2 L.0)
(07-Troy -9 48-31 06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-3)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

*Connecticut 23 - SOUTH FLORIDA 21—Since the sputtering South Florida,
“whole” equaling much less than the sum of its talented parts lately, compelled
to back fundamentally-sound Huskies. Visiting UConn has top QB Lorenzen
back from injury, features the nation’s leading rusher in Donald Brown, and
possesses a lot more esprit de corps these days than troubled Bulls (lost 4 of last
5). TV—ESPN
(07-CON. 22-S. Fla. 15...C.20-18 S.44/253 C.46/159 C.13/26/1/194 S.16/30/2/189 C.0 S.0)
(07-CONN. +4 22-15 06-USF -6' 38-16 05-CONN. +7 15-10...SR: South Florida 3-2)

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 10 over Miami
DENVER by 21 over Oakland
OVER THE TOTAL in the Green Bay-New Orleans game

New England 23 - MIAMI 13—The Patriots were attacked by a
“wildcat” in the first meeting. Miami installed the popular college variation
during the week and then watched Ronnie Brown run for four TDs and pass for
another. N.E.’s in-game adjustments to slow the Wildcat proved fruitless. But
Bill Belichick has been burning the coaching phone since, so look for an
aggressive response this week. Moreover, QB Matt Cassel (67% last 5 games;
now handing more audibles) is vastly improved since the first meeting, which
was just his second start.
(08-Miami 38-N. ENG. 13...M.23-13 M.36/216 N.18/67 M.18/21/0/245 N.22/35/1/137 M.0 N.1)
(07-N. Eng. 49-MIAMI 28...M.25-23 M.30/179 N.22/84 N.22/28/1/359 M.24/37/1/203 N.0 M.1)
(07-N. ENG. 28-Miami 7...N.19-15 N.25/196 M.22/108 N.18/33/2/204 M.18/41/0/133 N.2 M.0)
(08-Miami +12' 38-13; 07-N. England -16 49-28, N. ENGLAND -22 28-7...SR: Miami 49-37

DENVER 34 - Oakland 13—Broncs romped in first meeting opening
week, with rookie WR Eddie Royal collecting 9 recs. for 146 yards, most of them
against high-priced Oakland CB DeAngelo Hall, since released. And Brandon
Marshall (63 recs.) missed that game due to suspension! The Raiders (no
offensive TDs last 13 Qs) sliding precipitously, with insiders reporting several
other players looking for an out. Denver (0-5 as a favorite since that Raider win)
owns huge QB edge, and Mike Shanahan never hesitates to punish Oakland
when he can.
(08-Denver 41-OAK. 14...D.24-15 O.31/150 D.34/142 D.16/25/0/299 O.17/26/0/167 D.0 O.1)
(07-DENVER 23-Oak. 20 (OT)...D.26-11 O.35/200 D.38/181 D.23/33/2/260 O.8/17/3/53 D.0 O.0)
(07-OAK. 34-Denver 20...O.20-14 O.41/175 D.29/86 D.16/32/2/206 O.18/28/0/197 O.1 D.2)
(08-Denver -3 41-14; 07-DENVER -9' 23-20 (OT), OAKLAND +3' 34-20...SR: Oakland 55-41-

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24
OVER THE TOTAL *Green Bay 34 - NEW ORLEANS 31—G.B. has
become one of the NFL’s best road warriors, now 8-1 as a visiting dog under
Mike McCarthy. And the Saints are banged up and thin at CB, which is good
news for Packer wideouts, who led the NFL in yards after catch LY and are on
track to come close TY. G.B. has covered its last five games, during which
Ryan Grant—the key to their playoff drive LY—has rushed for 501 yards.
Packers have a team-record seven defensive TDs TY. Good offense; marginal
defense equals 19-9-1 “over” mark for last 29 for N.O. CABLE TV—ESPN
(06-New Orleans -2 34-27...SR: Green Bay 14-6)

*PITTSBURGH 23 - Cincinnati 19—Steelers easily won first meeting, pulling
away after leading only 10-7 at the half vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick. But little has come
easy this season for Pittsburgh, with its OL problems (35 sacks) and backfield
injuries. Sore-shouldered Ben Roethlisberger has only 10 TDs vs. 11 ints. TY.
And Bengals have covered 4 of their last 6 visits to the Steel City. Steelers 44-
16-1 “over” at Heinz. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Pitt 38-CINCY 10...P.20-16 P.27/125 C.22/84 P.20/31/0/250 C.24/39/0/128 P.0 C.1)
(07-Pitt 24-CINCY 13...P.23-15 P.33/160 C.21/91 P.19/26/1/230 C.23/31/0/205 P.0 C.1)
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 10...P.20-15 P.35/101 C.23/74 P.21/32/2/184 C.17/44/0/175 P.2 C.1)
(08-Pitt -9 38-10; 07-Pitt -3' 24-13, PITT -7 24-10...SR: Pittsburgh 47-30)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

CLEVELAND 27 - Houston 26—Sage Rosenfels (13 of 18, 1 int.) had only
one giveaway in last week’s 33-27 loss at Indy, so prefer to be “taking” with
hard-luck Houston. For Cleveland, Derek Anderson has absorbed most of the
blame (giving way to Brady Quinn), but Browns’ receivers have been “down” TY,
with Joe Jurevicius injured, Donte’ Stallworth & Kellen Winslow Jr. in & out of
the lineup, and Braylon Edwards plagued by drops. Always looking “over” with
Houston (“over” 9-1 TY; 22-8-1 last 31!). Texan defense only 6 ints. TY
(07-CLE. 27-Hou. 17...C.21-17 C.33/148 H.18/77 C.24/35/1/249 H.22/36/2/237 C.0 H.1)
(07-CLEVELAND -3' 27-17...SR: Cleveland 3-2)

KANSAS CITY 24 - Buffalo 22—Chiefs have been improving over the past
month, with QB Tyler Thigpen adjusting to NFL defenses and hitting 85 of 140
for 945 yards, with 8 TDs and 1 interception the last 4 games. With TE Tony
Gonzalez and WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, K.C. has been showing a
potent aerial game. Now, Larry Johnson, although not necessarily out of the
doghouse, is back in action (19 for 67 rushing last week vs. New Orleans). Prior
to their Monday nighter vs. Cleveland, long gainers had been evaporating from
the Bills’ offense.
(05-BUFFALO -2' 14-3...SR: Buffalo 21-17-1)

TENNESSEE 26 - NY Jets 17—This has some of the characteristics of the
type of banana peel that could finally slip up unbeaten Tennessee, especially
with Brett Favre now fully integrated into Jets’ offense. But a constant for the
Titans has been their rock-ribbed stop unit (13 ppg). And, with Thomas Jones
unlikely to find much running room vs. Albert Haynesworth and Co., Favre’s
preferred play-action not likely to be as effective as usual. Kerry Collins (3 TDP
last week) making just enough plays, and avoiding just enough mistakes, to
keep Titans’ unlikely run at perfection alive for another week.
(07-TENN. 10-Jets 6...T.17-14 T.36/127 N.24/68 N.26/32/2/228 T.12/23/1/146 T.1 N.0)
(07-TENNESSEE -8' 10-6...SR: Tennessee 22-15-1)

DALLAS 28 - San Francisco 23—Despite their 1-2 record, the 49ers are
clearly a different team under fiery coach Mike Singletary, a Texas native who
starred at Baylor. Shaun Hill (4 TDs, 2 ints. TY) is now 4-0 vs. the spread as a
starter LY & TY, and the S.F. defense is playing with new spirit. Cowboys also
reborn with Tony Romo, CB Terence Newman and others back to help rally
Dallas last week at Washington. But Romo (2 ints.) still not quite 100%. Niners’
secondary among the most experienced in the NFL.
(05-Dallas -6' 34-31...SR: San Francisco 16-14-1)

Tampa Bay 29 - DETROIT 16—Daunte Culpepper shaking the cobwebs
loose and providing Detroit with some legit NFL QBing, so Lions might yet taste
the heady nectar of victory this season. On the other hand, they’re still on
course to break the ‘76 Bucs’ heretofore untouchable 0-14 mark for singleseason
futility. Rest assured Jon Gruden is not about to let Tampa Bay become
the Lions’ first victim. Possible return of Cadillac Williams could bolster Buc
infantry, and Monte Kiffin’s tough-to-crack “Tampa Two” zone should limit
Culpepper’s downfield possibilities.
(07-DET. 23-T. Bay 16...T.27-17 D.24/147 T.29/124 T.37/45/0/298 D.16/20/0/131 D.0 T.2)
(07-DETROIT -2' 23-16...SR: Detroit 27-25)

Philadelphia 20 - BALTIMORE 16—Neither wants to put last week’s
respective efforts into a time capsule. But recuperative powers of Donovan
McNabb (3 ints. last week at Cincy) have been tested countless times in his 10-
year career; let’s see how Baltimore’s formerly-unflappable rookie Joe Flacco
deals with adversity after a couple of costly picks vs. Giants. Remember,
longtime Philly d.c. Jim Johnson has rattled many young QBs with his blitzes
and disguised coverages. If Eagles don’t get gashed by the Raven infantry,
McNabb more likely than Flacco to make a difference.
(04-PHILADELPHIA -7' 15-10...SR: Philadelphia 1-0-1)

Chicago 30 - ST. LOUIS 16—Bears have plenty of flaws, including a weak
cast of WRs that hamper their aerial game and allow teams to focus on rookie
RB Forte (777 YR). But even with Chicago in the negative role of road favorite,
we’re not eager to “stick a toe in the water” to test the temperature of the Rams,
who have trailed a by combined 75-3 at the half (!) of their last two games.
Bears still tied for first in the highly competitive NFC North.
(06-Chicago -6' 42-27...SR: Chicago 49-35-3)

Minnesota 23 - JACKSONVILLE 17—J’ville finally gaining a bit of traction
with its infantry past few weeks, but finding room to run vs. the suffocating
Minnesota rush “D” a different matter. And if Jags can’t establish a credible
ground assault, their lack of a deep passing threat (longest completion 35 yards
TY!) makes it extremely difficult for them to “matriculate the ball down the field.”
Meanwhile, Viking counterpart Gus Frerotte not likely to see much pressure from
limp Jag pass rush, which must constantly focus on Adrian Peterson (1100 YR).
(04-MINNESOTA -6 27-16...SR: Minnesota 2-1)

ATLANTA 20 - Carolina 16—Falcs suffered their first home loss week ago.
But rookie Matt Ryan still being praised for being such an “absorbent” QB—
advanced as a leader, a quick study in the film room, adding additional checkoffs
and adjustments as the season goes on. The Falcon defense will be
thoroughly challenged when trying to stem the Carolina ground game (264 YR
last week vs. timid Lions), but Panther QB Jake Delhomme (total of 172 YP last
two games) not exactly on fire.
(08-CAR. 24-Atl. 9...C.19-17 A.23/118 C.32/111 C.20/29/0/294 A.21/41/0/150 C.0 A.0)
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -7 24-9; 07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-11)

Washington 20 - SEATTLE 19—Jim Zorn returns to Seattle, where he
played QB for nine years, was an assistant coach for eight more, and was the
second player in the Seahawks’ Ring of Honor. However, after making crosscountry
trips four times this season (Buffalo, NYG, T.B., Miami) and losing them
all, the Seahawks are hardly in the mood to play nice host upon his return. Matt
Hasselbeck (3 ints. in his return last week) should be sharper for this one.
(07-SEA. 35-Wash. 14...W.21-14 S.21/77 W.29/75 W.29/50/2/244 S.20/32/2/227 S.0 W.0)
(07-SEATTLE -3' 35-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Washington 9-6)

NY Giants 31 - ARIZONA 24—Go-with vs. go-with. Arizona 4-0 SU and 3-1
vs. the spread at home TY. Too bad the Giants appear to have a “portable”
game they can take on the road and execute without slippage, going 16-3 vs.
the spread their last 19 away and 7-1 their last 8 as a road favorite! Key
question: Can the N.Y. pass rush get to Kurt Warner (20 TDs, 7 ints.) often
enough to keep the Cardinal WRs from dominating? Arizona believes in “theWhis,”
who is 3-0 as a home dog in his 1+Ys. But lean to superior rushing & pass rush of G-men.
(05-NY GIANTS -3 42-19...SR: NY Giants 78-41-2)

*Indianapolis 27 - SAN DIEGO 26—Indy lost two meetings vs. S.D. LY, with
Peyton Manning throwing six interceptions in the first (Adam Vinatieri missed a
FG at the end), and the harried Manning tossing two more in the AFC playoffs.
But that’s when the Chargers had intimidator Shawne Merriman to set up their
defense. S.D. not the same without him, collecting only six ints. so far TY,
compared with 30 LY! Not good, especially with Manning & Co. now hitting its
stride after early-season injuries. TV—NBC
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-S. Diego 28-INDY 24...I.29-20 S.30/99 I.18/44 I.33/48/2/402 S.17/23/1/312 S.0 I.1)
(07-SAN DIEGO +3' 23-21, San Diego +9 28-24 (Playoffs)...SR: San Diego 15-9)

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

N.C. STATE
Although this weekend is not quite as chock full of rivalry
games as it used to be (many of those battles have now been
moved to the weekend following Thanksgiving), there are still
plenty of traditional battles on tap this Saturday. And on Tobacco
Road, one of our featured Rivalry Dogs is hot North Carolina
State, which makes the short drive to Chapel Hill for its annual
battle with bitter rival North Carolina. The Wolfpack has been
surging lately, covering its last 5 and 7 of its last 8 outings, and is
always a play in the College Coach as Underdog system with
HC Tom O’Brien, whose teams as BC and NCS are now 23-9 vs.
the spread their last 32 as a dog.

VANDERBILT
It’s not like the old days as far as Tennessee is concerned. The
season can’t end fast enough for the disappointed Vols, who
must travel to Nashville for a Saturday battle vs. rejuvenated
instate foe Vanderbilt. UT is going nowhere (and not to a bowl,
either), having dropped its last three vs. the number, while
recording a very poor -23.50 “AFS” (“Away From Spread”)
number its last two games. The Commodores have covered 3 of
the last 4 series meetings vs. better Vol sides, and also qualify as
a featured Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.

RICE
It might seem as if the role of favorite is an uncomfortable one
for Rice, but that’s not necessarily the case. The underrated
Owls have covered 4 of their 5 chances as chalk this season, and
get another chance to do so Saturday at home when CUSA foe
Marshall pays a visit to Houston. There’s no reason to fear the
Herd away from its Huntington, West Virginia home, as Marshall
stands a poor 6-21-1 vs. the number its last 28 on the road. Note
that Rice is 11-4 vs. the number its last 15 as host, and qualifies as
a featured Rested Home Winner this week.

UTEP
One of the most enduring team trends in CUSA has been
UTEP’s success as a road underdog, a role in which the Miners
find themselves Saturday at Robertson Stadium for a crucial
conference clash vs. Houston. UTEP stands a solid 10-4-1 vs. the
line its last 15 as a visiting dog, qualifying it as a featured
recommendation this week with HC Mike Price in the College
Coach as Underdog system.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH (Thursday, November
20)...GT has won and covered last 3 meetings, courtesy Chan. Paul
Johnson 3-1 vs. line at home TY, 6-2 vs. line overall. Canes have 3
straight covers as visitor after 3-10 previous 13 vs. line away from
home. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on series trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at TOLEDO (Friday, November 21)...RedHawks
have fared okay on road TY, covering 3 of 5 away, now 9-3 last 12
as road dog (3-2 TY). But Miami just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Miami-O, based on extended trends.

BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN (Friday, November 21)...BGSU
now on uptick with wins last 2 and covers last 3 in ‘08,but just 3-12
vs. line last 15 as host. Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 6 straight
as road dog! Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE (Friday, November
21)...Fresno no covers last 9 TY, now 9-27-1 last 37 on board! Home
team has covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series. Tech edge-SJSU,
based on series and team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...EMU only 2-7 vs. line TY, now
6-15 last 21 on board. Temple yet to lose vs. line at home TY (1-0-
2) and now 8-3-2 vs. spread at Linc since ‘06. Tech edge-Temple,
based on team trends.

ARMY at RUTGERS...Rutgers has won 4 straight and covered last
6, while Army 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Stan Brock has covered
all 4 road games TY, while Rutgers had failed to cover its first 3 as
chalk before finally getting over the hump vs. Syracuse. Tech edge-
Army, based on recent trends.

ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN...NU has covered 6 of last 8 in
series, but failed to do so LY in 41-22 Illini romp. If Wildcats chalk, note
2-1 spread mark in role TY at home after 0-5 performance previous two
seasons. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on extended trends.

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI...Series edge to ‘Stache, who has
won and covered last 3 vs. Cincy (only one of those vs. Brian Kelly,
however). ‘Stache has also won and covered last 3 on road, two
of those as dog. ‘Stache also 7-2 last 9 as dog. Bearcats only 2-3
as chalk TY, though Brian Kelly still 13-7 vs. spread with Cincy and
28-10-2 last 40 vs. number overall at CMU & Cincy. Tech edge-Pitt,
based on series and recent team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...Wake had covered 4
straight in series prior to BC’s 38-28 win LY. Deacs have also
covered 2 of last 3 as Winston-Salem chalk and now 5-4 vs. line as
home favorite since LY (had failed to cover 13 straight in role prior
to turnaround in home chalk fortunes LY!). Tech edge-slight to
Wake, based on team trends.

INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket! Home team has covered
8 of last 10 in series, although IU covered its last trip to Ross-Ade.
Hoosiers 2-8 vs. line TY. Tiller only 8-15 vs. line at home since ‘05
(2-3 TY). Tiller finale at Purdue. Tech edge-Purdue, based on
IU negatives.

MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Tressel won 6 of 7 SU vs. Lloyd Carr
(5-2 vs. line). Road team has covered last 3 in series, but Wolverines
only 1-3 vs. line away TY and 2-9 against spread overall. Buckeyes
no covers first 5 on line at horseshoe TY and no covers last 6 on board
as host! Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on recent OSU
home woes.

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer has won last 4 handily (all by
24 or more) vs. Duke and covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-
Beamer, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at MARYLAND...Ralph had covered 3 straight in
series prior to FSU’s 24-16 win and cover LY. Terps, however, are
6-0 SU (4-1 vs. line, one NL) at College Park TY. Noles 1-2 vs. line
away TY, 4-8 last 12 in role. Tech edge-Maryland, based on
team trends.

NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...Heels had covered 4 straight
in series prior to 31-27 loss at nearly Raleigh LY. Butch has won and
covered last 2 as home chalk TY after Heels were 3-10 vs. line in 13
previous tries as Chapel Hill favorite. O’Brien, however, has covered
last 5 and 7 of last 8 TY, is 12-4 overall vs. number last 16 on board
and 23-9 last 32 as dog at BCS & NCS. Tech edge-NCS, based
on recent O’Brien marks.

IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE...Home team has won and
covered by DD margins the past three meetings. ISU has dropped last
9 SU in ‘08 after opening with pair of wins TY. Prince finale at KSU, note
that Wildcats have covered only 1 of their last 7 final games of the
season. Tech edge-slight to KSU, based on series home trend.

TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered 3 of last 4 in
series. Vols no wins or covers last 3 in ‘08. Tech edge-Vandy,
based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...A real home series, with
host team covering last 6 meetings! Hogs, however, have covered 4 of
their last 5 TY. Sly Croom 2-2 vs. line at Starkville TY but just 4-11 last
15 at home. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on recent trends.

AKRON at OHIO...Home team has won and covered last 3 in series.
But Zips have covered 4 of 5 away TY and 5 of last 6 on road dating
to late ‘07. Zips also 2-1 as road chalk TY after 0-4 mark in role
previous 3 years. Tech edge- Akron, based on recent trends.

COLORADO STATE at WYOMING...Border war! Home team has
won and covered last 5 in series. CSU a real home-road team TY,
0-5 vs. line away from Fort Collins, 5-0 vs. spread at Hughes Stadium!
Tech edge-Wyo, based on series and team trends.

MARSHALL at RICE...Marshall 2-3 vs. line away TY, but that’s am
improvement from recent seasons (Herd 6-21-1 vs. number last 28
away from home). Owls 4-1 vs. line as chalk TY. Tech edge-Rice,
based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at NOTRE DAME...Ugh! Robinson only 7-18 vs. line last
24 on board. Cuse also just 1-4 its last 5 as road dog. ND just 9-17
vs. line last 26 at South Bend, extending back to Willingham era. Tech
edge-slight to ND, based on Cuse negatives.

WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE...Apple Cup! Visiting
team has covered last 4 Apple Cups, and Huskies have covered last
4 at Pullman. But UW on 8-game spread losing streak in ‘08, while Wazzu
has covered last 2 TY. Tech edge-WSU, based on recent trends.

TULANE at TULSA...Tulsa has won and covered big the last three
meetings. Golden Hurricane has covered first 4 on line at home TY
and 5 straight as host dating to late ‘07. Wave has lost last 4 outings
in ‘08 by 17 or more. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on team and
series trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Teams have split the last 4 meetings
SU and vs. spread, with home team winning SU all of those 4.
Leach 2-0 as dog TY, but Stoops 4-1 vs. line at Norman, 14-4-1 vs.
spread last 19 as host. Stoops only 1-3 vs. line last 4 in revenge,
however. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on Sooner home mark.

MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE...Spartans have covered last
2 in series and are 8-2 vs. line away from home under Dantonio. Tech
edge-slight to Michigan State, based on Spartan road mark.

CLEMSON at VIRGINIA...Tigers 9-2 as dog since ‘05 (1-2 TY).
Cavs streaky TY vs. line, now no wins or covers last 2. Groh still only
0-1 vs. line as chalk TY and 1-6 as favorite since LY. Tech edge-
Clemson, based on extended dog mark.

AIR FORCE at TCU...Force now 7-1 last 8 vs. line as visitor. Frogs,
however, have won and covered their last 6 in Fort Worth, and are
13-4 as home chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based
on team trends.

STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Tedford lost his first Big Game LY
after beating Tree 5 straight. Stanford has covered last 2 Big Games,
however. Tedford is 5-0 vs. number as Berkeley chalk in ‘08, while
Harbaugh just 2-4 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to Cal,
based on recent trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs.
line last 5 TY, and Ags no covers last 4 on board at Las Cruces TY.
Tech edge-LT, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Boise had overwhelmed Nevada in
recent years prior to wild 69-67 OT win on blue carpet LY. Broncos
had won and covered previous 7 meetings by huge margins (all by
31 or more), and Boise has won and covered last 3 at Reno by 140-35
total score! Ault 19-7 against number at home since returning to sidelines
in ‘04. Tech edge-Boise, based on extended series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at UAB...ECU has covered last 3 in series, but
Skip in retreat with no covers last 3 or 7 of last 8 TY. Included are
4 straight Ls in once-profitable road role. Tech edge-UAB, based
on recent ECU woes.

UTEP at HOUSTON...Mike Price 10-4-1 last 15 as road dog, and
Miners 11-6 as DD dog since 2003. Tech edge-UTEP, based on
Price’s extended road dog mark.

BYU at UTAH...Utes had covered last 3 meetings before BYU
escaped with 17-10 win LY. Cougs just 3-4 as visiting dog since
Bronco Mendenhall took over in ‘05. Tech edge-Utah, based on
recent trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered
last 2 Floyd battles after Hawkeyes had covered previous 7. If Iowa
chalk, note Hawkeyes 1-0 on road in role TY, but just 2-8 in role since
‘03. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based on extended series
trends.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Series edge to OSU, which has
won and covered last 2 and 8 of last 9 vs. Arizona. Beavs have
covered last 3 on road TY and 6 of last 8 away from Corvallis. Beavs
have also covered 7 of last 8 TY. Cats, however, have now covered
their last 7 at Tucson (4-0 as home chalk TY). Tech edge-OSU,
based on series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at LOUISVILLE...Home team has won SU last 3
meetings, although WVU failed to cover in home win LY. Tech edgeslight
to Louisville, based on series trends.

UCF at MEMPHIS...Home team has covered last 3 meetings, all of
those won outright by UCF. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,
based on recent UCF woes.

UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have now covered 4 of last
5 and are 3-1 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-UNLV, based on
recent trends.

OLE MISS at LSU...Rebs haven’t beaten LSU since ‘01, but they
have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Rebs have also covered last 5 as
road dog since mid ‘07. LSU 4-14-2 vs. number last 20 on board since
early ‘07, and no covers last 7 on board at Baton Rouge. Tech edge-
Ole Miss, based on team and series trends.

IDAHO at HAWAII...Leahey has won and covered big the last four
years in series, and has covered 5 of last 6 on board TY. Vandals
only 2-7 vs. line last 9 as visitor (1-4 TY). Tech edge-Hawaii, based
on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU no covers last
5 on board TY. Schnellenberger 8-2 vs. line last 10 Belt games away
from Lockhart Stadium. Tech edge-FAU, based on team trends

UL-MONROE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Weatherbie 15-8-1
as road dog since ‘05, and has won and covered handily the last 2
vs. FIU. Tech edge-ULM, based on team and series trends.

NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU in control lately
with big wins and covers last 2 meetings. UNT 7-14 vs. line for Todd
Dodge since LY, 14-30-1 last 45 overall. Tech edge-MTSU, based
on recent series trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at TROY...Ragin’ Cajuns 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as
visitor. Trojans no covers last 2 as chalk TY after 11-3-1 run previous
15 in role. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on recent trends.

UCONN at SOUTH FLORIDA (Sunday, November 23)...Home team
has won and covered the last 3 years. But USF only 1-4 vs. line at
Tampa TY, and poor 2-8 vs. line (all as chalk) in ‘08. Huskies only 1-
6 vs. line their last 7 away from home, however. Tech edge-slight
to UConn, based on recent USF chalk woes.

COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

COACH & POINTSPREAD-

BALL STATE over Central Michigan
(11/19), GEORGIA TECH over Miami-Florida (11/20), ARKANSAS
over Mississippi State, BYU over Utah, CINCINNATI over Pitt, ULMONROE
over Florida International@, MICHIGAN STATE over penn
State, OHIO STATE over Michigan@, TCU over Air Force@, VIRGINIA
TECH over Duke.

COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-

UL-MONROE over Florida
international@, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, NC STATE over
North Carolina, UTEP over Houston.

RIVALRY DOGS-

SAN JOSE STATE over Fresno State (11/21),
INDIANA over Purdue, NORTHWESTERN over Illinois, MICHIGAN over
Ohio State, NORTH CAROLINA STATE over North Carolina, TENNESSEE
over Vanderbilt, WYOMING over Colorado State, WASHINGTON
STATE over Washington, STANFORD over Cal, MINNESOTA over
Iowa, OLE MISS over Lsu.

POWER UNDERDOGS-

MIAMI-FLORIDA over Georgia Tech (11/
20)@, AIR FORCE over Tcu@, BOSTON COLLEGE over Wake Forest,
BYU over Utah, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, OREGON
STATE over Arizona, TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma@.

PAINFUL MEMORY-

OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@.

POWER REVENGE-

OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@, PENN STATE@
over Michigan State.

RESTED HOME WINNERS-

MEMPHIS over Central Florida, FLORIDA
INTERNATIONAL over UL-Monroe@, HAWAII over Idaho, OKLAHOMA
over Texas Tech@, RICE over Marshall@.

IMPOTENT FAVORITES-WASHINGTON STATE over Washington

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

N. Y. GIANTS-arizona "over"
There are a handful of enduring "totals" trends in the NFL, few
more compelling than Arizona's "over" tendencies. And that's
how we're going to look once more with the Cardinals when they
play host to the New York Giants Sunday at Glendale. Arizona
is "over" its first four at home this season, and now "over" its last
6 at U of Phoenix Stadium. The Cards are also "over" 23-9 their
last 32 games on the board since late in the '06 campaign.
Meanwhile, the Giants are also getting into the act, "over" 3 of their
first 4 on the road this season.

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (Thursday, November 20)... Steelers
have won and covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 meetings, including 38-
10 romp at Paul Brown Stadium October 19. Cincy “under” 5-11 last
16 on board, but Steel “over” 44-16-1 last 61 at Heinz Field. Tech
edge-“Over” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and
series trends.

HOUSTON at CLEVELAND...Texans “over” 9-1 TY, now “over” 22-
8-1 last 31 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs “over” 9-2 last 11 at Arrowhead.
Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at TENNESSEE...Titans 9-1 vs. line TY, but have failed
to cover at home last 2 years vs. Jets. Favre has covered last 3 in
‘08, and Jets “over” last 4 TY. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based
on recent “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Belichick 11-5 vs. line last 16 as visitor,
also 6-2 last 8 as dog. Miami “under” 5-1 as host TY, while Belichick
“under” 11-5-1 last 17 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-Patriots and
“under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS...49ers “over” 5 of last 6, and “over”
first 3 under Singletary. Dallas “over” 5-2 last 7 TY. Wade Phillips
only 1-5 vs. line last 6 as home chalk since late ‘07. Tech edge-
“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT...Lions 0-4 SU and vs. line at Ford Field,
now 1-7 vs. spread last 8 as host since mid ‘07. Lions also “over”
14-4-1 last 19 on board. Gruden only 1-6 as visiting chalk since ‘05.
Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and
Lions’ home trends.

PHILADELPHIA at BALTIMORE...If Andy Reid getting points, note
his 8-1 spread mark as road dog since ‘06. Birds “over” 7-3 last 10
as visitor, Ravens “over” 11-5-1 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at ST. LOUIS...Rams only 4-13 vs. line last 17 at Edward
Jones Dome, and “over” 8-2 last 10 as host. Bears, however, “under”
5-0-1 last 6 away. Lovie just 5-12 last 17 as chalk. Tech edge-“Over”
and slight to Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

MINNESOTA at JACKSONVILLE...Jags “over” 17-5 last 22 since
early ‘07 (“over” 5-4 TY). Jags have also failed to cover their first
4 as host TY. Vikes “over” 4 of first 5 on road TY. Tech edge-“Over”
and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers 5-2 vs. line last 7 in series and
3-0-1 vs. number last 4 at Georgia Dome. Tech edge-slight to
Panthers, based on series trends.

OAKLAND at DENVER...Raiders had covered 4 straight in series
prior to Broncos’ lopsided 41-14 win in opener. Oakland “over” 8-5
on road since LY. Raiders also 30-60-1 vs. number since Super Bowl
XXXVII. Denver “over” 20-9-1 last 30 overall. Shan no covers first 4
as home chalk in ‘08, however. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Broncos,
based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at SEATTLE...Zorn has covered his last 3 on road
TY, and Skins “under” 11-4-1 their last 16 reg.-season games. Tech
edge-Skins and “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

NY GIANTS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 3-0 as home dog since
taking over at Arizona LY, and Cards now “over” 13-5 their last 18
on board. Giants, however, are 16-3 vs. number their last 19 away
from Meadowlands. Tech edge-“Over”, based on Cards’
“totals” trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts have won last 3 and covered
last 4 in series. If Dungy a dog note 10-6 spread mark in role since
‘03. Colts also “over” 6-2 last 8 away. Tech edge-“Over”, based
on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 24)...Saints
“over” 19-9 last 28 since late ‘06, and 3-1 as Superdome chalk TY
after subpar 3-11 mark in role past two seasons. Pack “over” 12-
4 last 14 on road. Pack also 7-1 last 8 as road dog since McCarthy
arrived in ‘06. Tech edge-“Over” and Packers, based on
“totals” and team trends

SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-

CAROLINA* over Atlanta#, INDIANAPOLIS
over San Diego, NEW ENGLAND* over Miami, PHILADELPHIA*
over Baltimore, GREEN BAY over New Orleans (11/24).

FAMILIARITY-

ATLANTA# over Carolina, MIAMI# over New England.

NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.

SCORE 40 LETDOWN-No plays this week.

LOGICAL APPROACH

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Byu + 6 over UTAH - The "Holy War" has produced some very exciting games in recent years but so much is at stake this season that anything short of another nail biter would be a surprise. Utah is 11-0 and a win all but assures the Utes a BCS Bowl bid - their second cracking of the BCS party in 5 seasons. With a win also comes the Mountain West Conference Title - an honor that can be shared by BYU if the 10-1 Cougars can pull the upset of their most bitter rival (TCU could make it a 3 way tie with a win over Air Force). BYU's lone blemish was a one sided loss at TCU in mid season and BYU played sluggishly for a few weeks afterwards before again regaining their dominating form the past few weeks. Utah needed a late TD to defeat TCU when they hosted the Horned Frogs a few weeks back in a game in which TCU far outplayed the Utes. BYU has won the last 2 against Utah and the last 3 games as well as 9 of the last 10 have been decided by a TD or less. Both teams have had stellar seasons and while Utah plays with the prospects of an unbeaten season and the BCS Bowl, BYU is motivated both by the chance to ruin their main foe's season as well as sharing a conference title and improving their Bowl bid. BYU wins 23-20.

Other Featured College Selections

Illinois - 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - When Northwestern is having a successful season is's a sure sign that the Big 10 overall is having a down season. And such is the case in 2008 as Northwestern is 8-3 after a win at Michigan and headed to a decent Bowl game. At 5-6 Illinois needs a win to become Bowl eligible just a season after representing the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Illinois is the more talented team but has often played down to the level of their competition, a trait that plagued coach Ron Zook in his days as coach of Florida. But with a Bowl bid on the line, the clearly better offense and a defense the equal of Northwestern a good effort from the Illini can be expected. This has been an even series over the past decade with each team winning 5 times. Illinois ended a 4 game Northwestern winning streak last season with a 41-22 home win. Northwestern has lost 2 of their last 3 home games and did not have to face Penn State this season, a foe against whom Illinois was competitive in a 38-20 road loss. Illinois gets a solid victory, winning 34-23.

Stanford + 9 ½ over CALIFORNIA - The "Big Game" will always be remembered for the "Band Play" of a quarter century ago but there have been many entertaining and meaningful games between these rivals since and this year's game should be no exception. At 6-4 Cal is considered a disappointment given the talent on hand and reputation of coach Jeff Tedford. Stanford has continued to show progress under second year coach Jim Harbaugh and at 5-6 the Cardinal becomes Bowl eligible with an upset win here. Stanford pulled the upset last year, ending a 5 game win streak by Cal. Stanford did cover in 2 of those last 3 losses. Both teams played USC the past two weeks with both losing in what were largely competitive games despite the final scores. Cal was outgained 411-165 in a 17-3 road loss while Stanford lost at home, 45-23, while being outgained 418-367. Cal has the better defensive stats but the offensive stats are fairly even. Stanford will put forth their best effort as their regular season ends this week. Cal should not hold back as they end their season next week against lowly Washington. Stanford keeps it close as Cal wins but by just 27-23.

Mississippi + 4 ½ over LSU - Ole Miss is enjoying an expected resurgence under first year coach Houston Nutt and at 6-4 will be headed to a Bowl for the first time in 5 seasons. The Rebels have a solid QB leading the offense and rate the edge at that position over LSU. The Tigers are 7-3 following a frantic fourth quarter comeback against Troy last week, overcoming a 31-3 deficit to win 40-31. LSU has struggled more than expected all season as their lowly 2-7 ATS record shows. Their defense has been vulnerable and they suffered one sided losses to Georgia and Florida. Ole Miss upset Florida on the road 31-30 earlier this season, a sign of the progress they are making. All 4 of their losses are by a TD or less as they seek to end a 6 game losing streak to LSU. Their last 3 losses on this field have been by 3, 3 and 1 point. The teams are very similar statistically. Ole Miss is tied for our third most improved team this season and enters this game having won 3 straight. This is their best chance in years to pull the upset over an underachieving LSU team that has not looked even in several of their wins. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 31-27.

Money Line Recommendations College:

Buffalo
OHIO U
Byu
Mississippi

LOGICAL APPROACH

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: New England + 2 over MIAMI - This is a huge revenge game for the Patriots who were blasted at home earlier this season by Miami, losing 38-13. This is the third straight Divisional game for New England who split the last two games. They have a few extra days of rest after last Thursday's overtime loss to the Jets. Miami is clearly an improved team and is tied with New England at 6-4 so this game is huge as a win would also give Miami tie breaker edges over the Pats. But it's rare we get New England as a Divisional underdog playing with revenge under coach Bill Belichick. Pats' QB Matt Cassel continues to improve and New England's season may be on the line here. The Patriots have battled injuries at numerous positions on both sides of the ball throughout the season yet remain in Playoff contention, a testament to the franchises's pedigree and the ability of others to step up and fill the leadership void created by injuries to QB Tom Brady and several key defenders. Miami does match up nicely statistically against the Pats but the intangibles greatly favor the experiences visitors. New England wins 23-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

DALLAS - 11 over San Francisco - Dallas was sparked by the return of QB Tony Romo is Sunday night''s 14-10 win at Washington. Though Romo was far from sharp, his presence gave the 'Boys a much needed boost that should carry over for the next few weeks. San Francisco has played inspired football for new coach Mike Singletary the past two weeks but it must be noted that the 49ers' last three games have been against their three NFC West Division rivals. In fact, the Niners could suffer a letdown following their blowout win over St Louis last week. The huge step up in class shows here as Dallas is poised to explode. The Cowboys are the clearly better defensive team, especially against the pass which would create problems for San Fran if forced to play from behind. Dallas continues to play with need as their realistic goal is now a Wild Card and they are in a battle with potentially a half dozen teams for just two spots. Dallas wins handily, 34-13. DETROIT + 8 ½ over Tampa Bay - Detroit remains winless but continues to play hard. Their offense should show gradual improvement as recently signed starting QB Duante Culpepper gets comfortable in the system. There's no doubt but that Tampa is clearly the better team but the Buccs have struggled on the road this season, with all 5 road games decided by 4 points or less including an overtime win at lowly Kansas City. With 3 straight Divisional games on deck, this could be a flat spot for the visitors. Detroit defeated Tampa here last season so there is reason for confidence from coach Rod Marinelli against his former employer. Statistically it is tough to make a case FOR Detroit. Rather, the better case here is made AGAINST Tampa Bay given that the Lions continue to play hard. This could be the Lions' best chance for a win considering their upcoming schedule. But the generous line leaves plenty of room for a competitive loss - a more likely scenario given Tampa's losing road record but perfect home mark, a sharp contrast. Tampa Bay wins but by just 21-17.

SEATTLE + 3 ½ over Washington - Matt Hasselbeck was back at QB for Seattle last week and rust from inactivity showed. His timing should be better this week against a Redskins team that is in a Divisional sandwich between Dallas and the Giants. Washington is also playing their first road game in nearly a month. Conditions are ideal for an upset with Seattle, when healthy, a talented team. And they have knocked Washington out of the Playoffs twice in the past three season on this field, including 35-14 this past January. The 'Skins have not been sharp in losing their last 2 games and can not benefit from the cross country trip. With improvement expected from the Seattle offense, the defense should perform better than it has most of the season as it's been under pressure to bail out an ineffective and injured offense. Seattle has historically enjoyed a strong home field but is just 1-4 this season. Building upom last week's improved effort in a loss to Arizona, Seattle pulls the upset over a team in the midst of a slump. Seattle wins 24-17.

Best of the NFL Totals

Houston/Cleveland OVER 49
N Y Jets/Tennessee UNDER 41
New England/Miami UNDER 42
Philadelphia/Baltimore UNDER 39
Minnesota/Jacksonville UNDER 41
Carolina/Atlanta UNDER 42 ½
Indianapolis/San Diego OVER 49 ½
Green Bay/New Orleans OVER 51 ½

Money Line Recommendations

CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY
New England
SEATTLE