Newsletters - 11/18 thru 11/23

THE GOLD SHEET

NORTHWESTERN by 6 over Wisconsin
TEXAS by 38 over Kansas
ARMY by 10 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 24 over Arkansas State

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19

*OKLAHOMA STATE 37 - Colorado 13—Tougher spot for traveling
Colorado, which played AT Ames last Saturday, and now AT Stillwater on short
rest. OSU, with key RB Kendall Hunter getting healthier (68 YR vs. Texas
Tech), has superior depth, not to mention more experience at QB. Although
only 3-2 as a home favorite TY, Cowboys 11-2 their last 13 in role. Buff QB
Taylor Hansen improving, but CU was swamped at Toledo earlier TY on short
rest. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-Okla. St. 30-COLO. 17...O.24-19 O.40/226 C.35/133 O.15/23/1/217 C.19/38/0/171 O.0 C.1)
(08-Oklahoma State -17' 30-17...SR: Colorado 26-18-1)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20

*BOWLING GREEN 37 - Akron 19—Bowling Green combination of QB
Tyler Sheehan (4th in the nation in total offense) and WR Freddie Barnes (leads
the country in receptions) gives Falcons a major edge. Akron has lost its top
two QBs and leading WR over the course of the season, and true frosh QB
Nicely has completed just 51% leading the Zips to a 114th total offense rank. BG
has covered last 3 in series, and Falcs in bowl frame with 2 more wins. CABLE
TV—ESPNU
(08-B. Green 37-AKRON 33...B.25-22 A.42/206 B.27/175 B.27/42/1/244 A.19/34/1/161 B.1 A.0)
(08-Bgu -1' 37-33 07-BGU -6' 44-20 06-AKRON -8 35-28...SR: Bowling Green 10-7)

*TOLEDO 47 - Eastern Michigan 20—Difficult to make a case for 0-10 EMU
side that’s come within 3 TDs of just one of its last 6 opponents. Eagles went
with frosh QB Gillett against WMU last week, and he ran for 105 yds. and a TD,
but also threw 3 interceptions. Toledo has QB issues, as sr. Aaron Opelt
reinjured his shoulder vs. CMU, but frosh Dantin has completed 65%.
(08-Toledo 41-E. MICH. 17...T.19-18 T.36/233 E.47/132 E.13/23/2/131 T.8/18/1/114 T.2 E.2)
(08-Toledo +2 41-17 07-TOLEDO -8 52-28 06-EMU -1 17-13...SR: Toledo 25-11)

*Boise State 45 - UTAH STATE 27—Boise not about to ease up on throttle
as it plays the ratings game in its BCS quest. But away from its friendly blue
carpet, Broncos have failed to cover 2 of last 3 pointspread hurdles. And USU
(11-2-1 last 14 on board) adept at taking advantage of oddsmakers’ generosity.
If Boise leaves a little room, Ags and QB Borel have enough offensive
competence to slip in back door. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-BOISE ST. 49-Utah St. 14...B.26-15 B.36/105 U.21/44 B.32/42/1/458 U.22/41/3/261 B.2 U.3)
(08-BSU -35 49-14 07-Bsu -24' 52-0 06-BSU -38 49-10...SR: Boise State 11-4)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Ohio State 35 - MICHIGAN 17—Michigan defense has barely been able to
slow foes since facing Delaware St. in mid-October, allowing 39 ppg in last 4.
Sure, Ohio State has locked up the Rose Bowl, but hard to fathom Buckeyes
relaxing against hated rival. Terrelle Pryor hasn’t thrown an interception in 3
games, and the OSU “D” ranks fifth in the country. Jim Tressel has also owned
Michigan (won last 5; 7-1 SU, 6-2 vs. line since ’01). TV—ABC
(08-OHIO ST. 42-Mich. 7...O.13-11 O.43/232 M.41/111 O.8/16/1/184 M.8/25/0/87 O.0 M.2)
(08-OSU -20' 42-7 07-Osu -4 14-3 06-OSU -6' 42-39...SR: Michigan 57-42-6)

Northern Illinois 27 - OHIO 17—NIU RB Chad Spann continues to be a
touchdown machine (17 this season), and Huskies control their own fate in
MAC West. Return to action of QB Chandler Harnish (9 for 9 with a TD vs. Ball
St.) a major boost for NIU, and rugged Huskie “D” yielding just 17 ppg.
(06-Ohio +16' 35-23...SR: NIU 9-8)

CLEMSON 37 - Virginia 9—Clicking Clemson has won 5 straight (4-0 vs.
spread) since surprising loss at lowly Maryland, and Tigers are looking to nail
down their first-ever trip to ACC title game. They won’t be denied by soon-tobe-
fired Al Groh’s punchless Cavaliers, who have stumbled their way to a paltry
208 ypg last 5 outings.
(08-Clemson 13-VA. 3...13-13 C.39/56 V.24/30 V.24/39/3/160 C.19/29/0/136 C.1 V.1)
(08-Clemson -2' 13-3...SR: Clemson 36-8-1)

NORTHWESTERN 26 - Wisconsin 20—Northwestern defense has
stiffened over the last 2 weeks, as Wildcats have upset Iowa and Illinois while
allowing just 13 ppg. NU QB Kafka looked near the top of his game in
completing 23 of 37 for 305 yds. last week against the Illini. Can’t badmouth 8-
2 Wisconsin, but Badgers yielding 29 ppg on Big Ten road this year, and the dog
is 8-1 in Northwestern’s games.
(06-WISCONSIN -20' 41-9...SR: Wisconsin 55-32-5)

IOWA 26 - Minnesota 16—Iowa returns home for finale off back-to-back
losses and must be suffering some disappointment after being knocked out of
the Rose Bowl in OT at Ohio State. Hawkeyes obviously missed jr. QB Stanzi,
as RS frosh Vandenberg tossed 2 TDs, but also 3 interceptions at Columbus.
But unified Iowa usually at its best in “Floyd of Rosedale” battle. TV-ESPN
(08-Iowa 55-MINN. 0...I.23-6 I.46/222 M.21/7 I.16/31/0/261 M.14/30/2/127 I.0 M.1)
(08-Iowa -6' 55-0 07-IOWA -14' 21-16 06-MINN. -2' 34-24...SR: Minnesota 59-41-2)

SOUTH FLORIDA 24 - Louisville 17—Limited Cardinal offense (just 151
total yards vs. Syracuse last week) certainly not striking much fear in the hearts
of opposing stop units. But Louisville defense (just 13 ppg last 3) digging in a
little deeper lately. Bulls’ impetuous RS frosh QB Daniels has thrown at least
2 ints. in 3 of last 4 games.
(08-LVL. 24-S. Fla. 20...S.21-20 L.41/111 S.24/8 S.30/40/2/344 L.12/21/1/212 L.0 S.0)
(08-LVL. +4' 24-20 07-USF -9 55-17 06-LVL. -17 31-8...SR: EVEN 3-3)

Rutgers 34 - SYRACUSE 16—Savvy Scarlet Knight HC Schiano has made
a point of pummeling regional recruiting rival Syracuse, winning & covering last
4 meetings vs. Orange by average score of 36-12. Blossoming true frosh QB
Savage has thrown 5 TDP in last 2 games, and opportunistic Rutgers a nation’sbest
+21 in turnover margin, while defense is fourth in sacks!
(08-RUTGERS 35-Syr. 17...R.27-7 R.38/207 S.26/133 R.26/36/2/276 S.5/19/0/35 R.1 S.1)
(08-RUT. -14 35-17 07-Rut. -17 38-14 06-RUT. -15 38-7...SR: Syracuse 28-10-1)

INDIANA 35 - Purdue 30—Purdue defense has been AWOL in last 3
games, yielding 38 ppg, but Indiana stop unit has been nearly as bad (35 ppg
last 3). “Old Oaken Bucket” has gone to the home team last 3 years, and
although Hoosiers have dropped 7 of last 8 SU this season, they have a much
better turnover ratio than Boilermakers and a couple of all-conference players
on the DL.
(08-PURDUE 62-Ind. 10...P.35-13 I.32/122 P.33/117 P.41/58/0/479 I.13/25/2/92 P.0 I.1)
(08-PURDUE -11' 62-10 07-IND. +2 27-24 06-PURDUE -12 28-19...SR: Purdue 69-36-6)

FLORIDA STATE 40 - Maryland 16—With trip to the “Swamp” to tangle with
No. 1 Florida up next, Seminoles almost certainly need victory over Maryland if
they’re to earn a bowl bid for 28th straight year (longest streak in nation).
Defensive shortcomings make FSU a dicey proposition as favorite, although
touted RS frosh QB Manuel (15 of 20 for 220 YP and 45 YR) was very
impressive in last week’s double-digit win at Wake.
(08-Fla. St. 37-MARY. 3...F.19-16 F.42/172 M.29/103 F.20/26/0/160 M.16/31/2/149 F.0 M.2)
(08-Fsu -1' 37-3 07-FSU -7' 24-16 06-MARY. +3' 27-24...SR: Florida State 17-2)

North Carolina 19 - BOSTON COLLEGE 16—Eagles still have outside shot
at earning Atlantic Division’s berth in ACC title game for third straight year. And
they’ve won their last 8 at home (7-0 vs. spread). Prefer Tar Heel QB Yates
(when he gets protection) over BC counterpart Shinskie, however, especially if
sure-tackling Carolina stop unit is able to keep Eagle RB Harris (1081 YR & 13
TDs) from running roughshod.
(08-N. CAR. 45-Bos. Col. 24...N.19-17 N.36/114 B.21/40 N.19/30/0/238 B.28/42/3/204 N.1 B.0)
(08-NORTH CAROLINA -3 45-24...SR: North Carolina 3-2)

VIRGINIA TECH 45 - North Carolina State 20—Want no part of
defenseless Wolfpack, which has permitted 40 ppg over last 7 outings. Hokie
jr. QB T. Taylor (3 TDP last week) is capable of doing damage in air when toughto-
tackle star RS frosh RB Ryan Williams (1235 YR & 12 TDs) is having his way
on ground.(DNP...SR: Virginia Tech 24-18-4)

MISSOURI 35 - Iowa State 16—ISU (6-5) achieved a major goal (for the
Cyclones, that is), becoming bowl eligible last week. However, the depth-shy
Iowa State defense has had problems vs. the last two high-quality spread
offenses it has faced, outscored a combined 69-18 vs. A&M and Oklahoma
State. With Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert regularly hitting red-hot 6-5 WR Danario
Alexander (23 recs., 414 yards, 4 TDs last two games), Tigers should snap their
0-4 spread streak at home TY.
(08-Mo. 52-IOWA ST. 20...I.25-24 M.25/151 I.23/118 M.32/40/1/328 I.36/54/2/326 M.1 I.0)
(08-Mizzou -27' 52-20 07-MIZZOU -28' 42-28 06-ISU +13' 21-16...SR: Missouri 59-33-9)

*TENNESSEE 34 - Vanderbilt 10—Though previously-humming UT attack
misfired in 42-17 setback at Ole Miss, Crompton & Co. find early groove vs.
nicked-up, fatiguing Vandy defense (heck, 12th straight game without a bye!)
that noticeably wore down in 24-13 home loss vs. Kentucky (out-scored 14-0
after intermission). ‘Dores’ backup QB Adams (only 11 of 24), who repeatedly
missed open receivers vs. Cats, does more of the same vs. Vols Tampa-2.
Kiffin’s squad becomes bowl eligible by covering 4th straight in sold-out
Neyland Stadium. TV-ESPNU
(08-Tenn. 20-VANDY 10...V.16-15 T.51/222 V.28/25 V.19/44/2/188 T.4/9/2/21 T.1 V.1)
(08-Tenn. +3 20-10 07-TENN. -12 25-24 06-Tenn. -8 39-10...SR: Tennessee 70-27-5)

*GEORGIA 26 - Kentucky 24—Now that UK’s healthier primary weapons
Cobb & Locke (combined 243 YR & 3 TDs vs. Vandy) are back to lend support
to fast-learning, dual threat 6-4 frosh QB Newton, suggest “taking” with roadtested
Wildcats (12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 away). Even if UGA’s top WR Green
gets green light (see Special Ticker), mistake-prone (21 giveaways), Dawg
offense (just 22 ppg last 7 vs. FBS squads) hard-pressed to extend margin in
Athens, where Richt’s squad just 1-7 last 8 vs. spread. TV-ESPN
(08-Georgia 42-KY. 38...K.20-17 K.56/226 G.30/144 G.17/27/0/376 K.12/20/1/105 G.2 K.1)
(08-Georgia -13 42-38 07-GEORGIA -7' 24-13 06-KY. +7 24-20...SR: Georgia 49-11-2)

TEMPLE 36 - Kent State 17—Not willing to buck hot Temple side that’s won
8 in a row SU, covered 7 of 9 this year, and is working on a “dream season” for
Owl fans. Temple RB Bernard Pierce has scored in 8 straight games and is 4th
in the nation in rushing. Kent frosh QB Keith productive (750 YP last 2 games),
but has thrown 7 ints. in last 4 games.
(08-KENT ST. 41-Temple 38...K.27-16 K.59/329 T.30/72 T.17/29/1/282 K.18/26/1/232 K.2 T.3)
(08-KSU +1 41-38 07-TEMPLE P 24-14 06-Ksu -24 28-17...SR: Kent State 2-1)

Tcu 39 - WYOMING 2—Weather conditions (Laramie is no picnic in
November) might make it a bit tougher for BCS buster-deluxe TCU to scale
pointspread heights. But blizzard-like conditions would probably be worse for
nascent Wyo spread that had gone 15 Qs with just 1 TD prior to late uprising last
week at SDSU. Little chance Cowboys and frosh QB Carta-Samuels would do
much business vs. voracious Frog “D” even on fast track, and TCU win margin
36 ppg since Air Force scare.
(08-TCU 54-Wyoming 7...T.18-13 W.43/113 T.39/110 T.16/22/0/334 W.9/15/1/108 T.0 W.1)
(08-TCU -31 54-7 07-WYOMING -3 24-21 06-TCU -6' 26-3...SR: TCU 3-2)

ARKANSAS 42 - Mississippi State 23—With Arkansas’ sizzling, riflearmed
6-7 soph QB Mallett (broke Hogs’ single-season passing record with
2,882 YP) now reading defenses like an NFL star (5 TDP to 5 different receivers
vs. Troy!), seriously doubt MSU’s run-oriented attack can keep pace vs. jelling
Hog stop unit, whose DL doing outstanding job in gap control (permitting just 3.2
ypc last 3 games.). Plus, bowl-eligible U of A in nasty mood after 9-game series
win streak was snapped in 31-28 loss at Starkville LY. Host has covered 7
straight in series. (at Little Rock, AR)
(08-MISS. ST. 31-Ark. 28...M.22-20 M.35/226 A.26/109 A.25/44/1/333 M.23/40/0/219 M.1 A.0)
(08-MSU +2 31-28 07-ARK. -11' 45-31 06-Ark. -14' 28-14...SR: Arkansas 12-6-1)

Connecticut 30 - NOTRE DAME 27—Irish mentor Charlie Weis once again
under heavy fire in South Bend. Well-coached UConn has covered all 5 of its
road games TY, as well as all 5 of its chances as underdog. Rested Huskies’
pounding RBs Todman & Dixon (combined 1556 YR & 20 TDs) will test resolve
of Domer defense and keep quick-trigger Irish QB Clausen (21 TDP, only 4
ints.) on sidelines for extended stretches. TV—NBC (FIRST MEETING)

Oregon State 45 - WASHINGTON STATE 5—With potential Rose Bowldeciding
“Civil War” on tap vs. hated Oregon Dec. 3, perhaps Mike Riley will
take his foot off OSU’s accelerator just enough to leave back door open for
woeful Wazzu. Otherwise, can’t think of any reason to support clueless Cougs,
especially with HC Wulff turning QB role into merry-go-round (confidenceshaken
Lobbestael & Lopina now rotating) with “great true frosh hope” Tuel
(knee) likely out once more.
(08-ORE. ST. 66-Wash. St. 13...O.26-8 O.43/323 W.42/53 O.13/26/4/225 W.7/17/0/79 O.0 W.2)
(08-OSU -29' 66-13 07-Osu +3 52-17 06-Wsu -3 13-6...SR: Washington State 47-43-3)

Penn State 31 - MICHIGAN STATE 20—Penn State has been effective on
the road this season, as Nittany Lions are 3-0 against the points and scored 35
ppg in wins at Illinois, Michigan and Northwestern. MSU clinches a Big Ten
bowl bid with a win or a Michigan loss to Ohio State, but Penn State is yielding
fewer than 12 ppg and has beaten everyone on its schedule save the Buckeyes
& Hawkeyes.
(08-PENN ST. 49-Mich. St. 18...M.23-19 P.35/138 M.24/35 P.19/31/0/419 M.32/49/2/287 P.0 M.0)
(08-PSU -16 49-18 07-MSU +2' 35-31 06-PSU -17' 17-13...SR: Penn State 13-12-1)

UCLA 26 - Arizona State 16—Routing Wazzu doesn’t qualify as a “buy”
signal, but there are indicators UCLA’s “O” finding some traction with RS frosh
QB Prince (who added 68-yard TD scramble at Pullman) maturing and young
stable of RBs finding some room to ramble. Meanwhile, ASU still lacking
playmakers, and now QB situation a complete jumble after frosh Osweiler KO’d
at Oregon (sr. Sullivan nursing sore shoulder; pony-tailed soph Szakacsy is
Dennis Erickson’s next option).
(08-ARIZ. ST. 34-Ucla 9...U.18-10 U.35/89 A.24/21 U.26/44/3/217 A.13/26/1/101 A.0 U.1)
(08-ASU -10 34-9 07-Asu -7 24-20 06-Ucla +5 24-12...SR: UCLA 15-9-1)

*STANFORD 34 - California 19—Strange things always possible in the Big
Game (get ready to be reminded about it this week). And now the price could
balloon if public reacts to Stanford’s uprising and notes that Cardinal has
covered 11 straight (!) on the Farm for Jim Harbaugh. But not interested
bucking a rampaging Palo Alto bunch now that RS frosh QB Luck has emerged
as a reliable playmaker, making it impossible for opposing defenses to mass
against rampaging Toby Gerhart (401 YR last 2 vs. Oregon & SC!). RB Jahvid
Best’s likely absence compromises Cal’s chances to keep pace.
(08-CAL. 37-Stan. 16...S.23-17 C.38/287 S.37/123 S.23/38/2/312 C.7/12/2/101 C.0 S.1)

MISSISSIPPI 23 - Lsu 16—Since LSU mentor Miles no tiger in revenge (1-
5 vs. spread last 6), must favor well-schooled Ole Miss squad playing its best
ball in month of November, as it did in ‘08 (5 straight wins & covers). With Rebel
offense taking full advantage of electric, multi-tasking weapon McCluster
(school-record 324 all-purpose yds. vs. Tenn.), nicked-up LSU offense (RB
Scott out; QB Jefferson ailing ankle) has hard time keeping up in Oxford, where
revved-up Rebel defense is yielding a miserly 12 ppg last 9 outings. Ole Miss
QB Snead licking his chops after 274 YP vs. Tigers LY. TV-CBS
08-Miss. 31-LSU 13...M.21-15 M.45/102 L.29/37 M.17/26/0/307 L.14/32/2/178 M.1 L.0)
(08-Miss. +3' 31-13 07-Lsu -19' 41-24 06-LSU -27' 23-20 (OT)...SR: LSU 55-38-4)

BYU 27 - Air Force 24—Bronco Mendenhall has restored BYU’s dominance
in this series (Cougs have won and covered last 5), but hardly convinced Orrin
Hatch’s alma mater ready to extend margin once more. Upperclass-laden Air
Force “D” adept at forcing mistakes (Falcs +18 TO margin), and QB Max Hall
(12 ints.) a bit more prone to picks this season. AFA option (38 ppg last 3) has
more quick-strike ability with QB Jefferson back in pilot’s seat.
(08-Byu 38-A. FORCE 24...B.32-21 A.51/323 B.36/126 B.28/37/1/354 A.12/20/1/98 B.1 A.1)
(08-Byu -4' 38-24 07-BYU -11' 31-6 06-Byu -9' 33-14...SR: BYU 23-6)

EAST CAROLINA 21 - Uab 20—Former Georgia o.c. Neil Callaway making
substantial progress in his 3rd season at helm of UAB, which needs only 1 more
victory to be eligible for bowl game. Even if Blazers can’t pull off upset at
Greenville, they’ll wage 60-minute battle behind do-it-all QB Webb (16 TDP,
1155 yards & 10 TDs rushing).
(08-E. Carolina 17-UAB 13...E.15-13 U.35/142 E.39/56 E.20/27/2/239 U.11/25/1/116 E.3 U.0)
(08-Ecu -6' 17-13 07-ECU -14' 41-6 06-UAB -6' 17-12...SR: EVEN 4-4)

*NEBRASKA 23 - Kansas State 13—Big XII North up for grabs. And
contest is extra crucial for 6-5 K-State, which must win for any bowl eligibility
since two of its early-season victories were vs. FCS teams (only one win can be
counted for bowl purposes). For sure, Wildcats’ star RB Daniel Thomas (1166
YR) will have problems vs. NU’s big, active defense (3rd in scoring, 10th in total
defense). Husker RB Roy Helu (156 YR at Kansas) healthier, but Bo Pelini only
2-5 vs. the spread at home vs. the Big XII. TV-ESPN2
(08-Neb. 56-KAN. ST. 28...N.29-13 N.53/340 K.32/59 N.16/25/1/270 K.12/26/0/188 N.1 K.1)
(08-Neb. -6' 56-28 07-NEB. +7' 73-31 06-Neb. -9 21-3...SR: Nebraska 76-15-2)

Oklahoma 27 - TEXAS TECH 26—LY in Norman, OU needed to roll up the
score in order to gain a BCS edge on Texas. Rest assured Red Raider
returnees remember that contest. Injury-thinned Sooners are only 1-4-1 vs.
spread last 6 on road, and QB Landry Jones, who tossed 5 TDs last week vs.
A&M, threw 5 interceptions in his last road start at Nebraska. Mike Leach
juggling his pick-prone QBs (Potts & Sheffield totaled 3 last week), but TT
defense improved (DE Sharpe has 10½ sacks).
(08-OKLA. 65-Tex. Tech 21...O.32-20 O.55/299 T.22/45 T.33/55/1/361 O.17/23/0/326 O.1 T.2)
(08-OKLA. -7 65-21 07-TECH +8 34-27 06-OKLA. -8' 34-24...SR: Oklahoma 12-4)

TEXAS A&M 31 - Baylor 27—A&M offense has great confidence at home
(40 ppg). But defense (except for designated sacker Von Miller—15½) still
leaves much to be desired. Baylor QB Nick Florence, with 3 ints., was
overwhelmed by the powerful Texas defense last week. But remember that he
was 32 of 43 for 427 yards with 3 TDs in his last road start at Missouri. HC Briles
7-2 vs. spread as a visitor at Baylor!
(08-BAYLOR 41-Tex. A&M 21...B.25-14 B.52/269 T.21/64 T.19/30/4/244 B.13/23/0/241 B.0 T.1)
(08-BAYLOR -8 41-21 07-TAM -16' 34-10 06-Tam -4' 31-21...SR: Texas A&M 65-31-9)

Utep 37 - RICE 35—Unwilling to lay points with enigmatic UTEP, as Miners
a startling 3-20 vs. spread in last 23 games as favorite! Rice’s confidence
bolstered by last week’s home win over Tulane (its first victory of season), and
Owl attack back on the beam now that Alabama transfer QB Fanuzzi (7 TDP last
2 games) comfy at trigger.
(08-Rice 49-UTEP 44...R.30-23 R.41/167 U.23/149 R.29/43/0/376 U.20/38/1/318 R.0 U.0)
(08-Rice -2' 49-44 07-RICE +7' 56-48 06-Rice +9 37-31...SR: Rice 7-5)

UTAH 33 - San Diego State 20—We’ve seen enough of this Utah edition (3-
7 vs. line) to be reluctant laying meaningful points, especially with frosh QB
Wynn now at controls (Utes did most of their damage at TCU long after outcome
was decided). SDSU resilience will be tested after 4th-Q collapse vs. Wyo, but
whip-armed soph QB Lindley capable enough of keeping visitors within earshot
as Aztecs fight hard in fight to get bowl-eligible (need to win in last 2).
(08-Utah 63-S. DIEGO ST. 14...U.30-19 U.40/198 S.19/73 U.28/40/1/322 S.23/41/2/247 U.0 S.1)
(08-Utah -29' 63-14 07-UTAH -14' 23-7 06-Utah -9 38-7...SR: Utah 15-12-1)

FRESNO STATE 30 - Louisiana Tech 28—Following La Tech’s egoboosting
24-16 loss at LSU (outgained Tigers 332-246!), suggest “taking” vs.
wound-licking FSU (gave up 45 unanswered at Nevada), with or without injured
star RB Mathews (see Special Ticker). La Tech exhibiting excellent ball
security (only 8 giveaway vs. 9 FBS teams). And watch nifty RBs Porter (796
YR) & emerging frosh Duplessis (65 YR vs. Tigers) burn a softened-up FSU
front 7 (permitting 6 ypg). La Tech has covered 5 straight in series, all as a dog!
(08-LA. TECH 38-Fres. St. 35...F.19-18 L.42/280 F.26/63 F.23/38/1/296 L.12/21/1/117 L.1 F.1)
(08-TECH +4' 38-35 07-FSU -12 17-6 06-Fsu -13 34-27...SR: Fresno State 7-3)

Colorado State 27 - NEW MEXICO 19—Since banged-up (only 62 healthy
players) and sliding CSU (7 straight losses) should benefit from much-needed
bye week, will continue to buck troubled (on and off field) NM squad unable to
string together quality efforts back-to-back (outgained BYU last week!).
Laboring Lobos on a much longer losing streak (14 straight; 4-10 vs. spread),
and no surprise if this is final home game for embroiled 1st-year HC Locksley.
Good (make that great) seats still available.
(08-COLO. ST. 20-N. Mex. 6...C.23-17 N.30/155 C.43/152 C.16/27/2/237 N.23/39/0/204 C.0 N.0)
(08-CSU +2 20-6 07-UNM -9 26-23 06-Unm +6' 20-19...SR: Colorado State 32-24)

Oregon 34 - ARIZONA 33—Chip Kelly’s rampaging Oregon spread might
even be able to move the ball on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense at raucous
Autzen Stadium, but Ducks’ KO power a bit muted on road, where they’re only
2-2 SU. Mike Stoops’ Arizona “D” at least has the foot speed to not get overrun
by Jeremiah Masoli & Co., and Cat “O” has enough weapons to keep pace. UA
good value lately in Tucson (11-2 vs. line last 13 as host).
(08-OREGON 55-Ariz. 45...A.30-18 O.30/206 A.52/199 A.29/46/2/328 O.21/27/0/298 O.1 A.1)
(08-OREGON -5' 55-45 07-ARIZ. +11 34-24 06-Ariz. +13' 37-10...SR: Oregon 20-13)

*Smu 31 - MARSHALL 28—Don’t look now, but June Jones has SMU
positioned on inside track to West Division berth in C-USA title game after
Mustangs mustered just 1 victory last season. Thundering Herd owns stouter
defensive platoon, although RB McNeal (Miami transfer; 896 YR) giving Jones’
“Red Gun” attack improved balance.
(06-SMU -5 31-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*Tulsa 38 - SOUTHERN MISS 37—Disappointing Tulsa in danger of
missing out on postseason after 4 straight bowl bids. Golden Hurricane
managing “only” 405 ypg this season (165 ypg fewer than 2008!), but visitor still
potent enough to pull out desperately-needed road victory.
(06-TULSA -5' 20-6...SR: Tulsa 3-2-1)

*TEXAS 47 - Kansas 9—Note that undefeated, defensivelyvoracious,
WR-rich Texas—led by Heisman candidate Colt McCoy (tied for
most victories as a college starter, 42)—is only 1-4 vs. the spread at home TY!
However, sliding Kansas (7 straight pointspread Ls) is rushing for only 61 ypg,
has 13 giveaways & has yielded 17 sacks during its current 5-game SU losing
streak. Longhorns lead the nation with nine STs and defensive TDs and
would’ve covered this number in any of their last 4 games. Look for Texas to
impress pollsters again.
(08-Texas 35-KANSAS 7...T.25-18 T.37/166 K.24/47 K.25/50/0/258 T.24/34/0/255 T.1 K.2)
(08-Texas -13' 35-7...SR: Texas 7-2)

MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Duke 14—Although Hurricanes’ still-learning soph
QB Harris (8 TDP vs. 9 ints. last 4 games) forcing too many throws lately, prefer
to lay points with Miami rather than take them with fading Duke side that lacks
the overall depth necessary to withstand rigors of full ACC campaign. Passhappy
Blue Devils (only 64 ypg rushing—last in nation) too unbalanced to do
much damage vs. vulnerable Cane defense. TV-ESPN2
(08-Miami 49-DUKE 31...M.23-19 M.29/154 D.44/142 M.23/36/3/266 D.16/34/0/191 M.0 D.1)
(08-Miami -3 49-31 07-MIAMI -24 24-14 06-Miami -18 20-15...SR: Miami-Florida 5-1)

HOUSTON 56 - Memphis 27—Tigers 1-8 vs. spread and showing few signs
of a belated rally for lame-duck HC West. Defense-shy Cougars frequently
have hard time putting teams away, but demoralized Memphis stop unit likely to
be KO’d by prolific UH QB Keenum (4194 YP & 31 TDP).
(06-Houston -16' 23-20 (OT)...SR: Houston 10-9)

UCF 44 - Tulane 17—Golden Knight offense greatly improved over last
year’s feckless force. And capable sr. QB Hodges (583 YP in his last 2 games)
& slammin’ soph RB Harvey (139 YR last week) should help UCF steadily
extend margin against money-burning Tulane side that’s covered just 2 of last
13 board games.
(06-TULANE -2' 10-9...SR: UCF 2-1)

*Nevada 51 - NEW MEXICO STATE 11—In past two years, Hal Mumme’s
NMSU Air Raid was able to exploit Nevada pass “D” deficiencies and trade
points with Wolf Pack. But DeWayne Walker’s landlocked, bottom-ranked
Aggie “O” ill-equipped to keep pace with Chris Ault’s rampaging bunch. Plenty
of bullets to fire in Nevada Pistol, scoring Tom Osborne-like 50 ppg its last 7 and
is drawing clear as nation’s rush leader (353 ypg!). TV-ESPNU
(08-Nmsu 48-NEV. 45...28-28 Nv.42/313 Nm.36/104 Nm.28/47/1/409 Nv.15/26/1/194 Nm.0 Nv.2)
(08-Nms +19' 48-45 07-Nevada -6' 40-38 06-NEVADA -17' 48-21...SR: Nevada 10-2)

*Hawaii 24 - SAN JOSE STATE 14—Dick Tomey could be excused for
wondering if the aggravation is worth it anymore after watching his sagging
SJSU (1-8 SU; now 1-12 last 13 on board) plumb new depths of ineptitude,
with end zone almost forbidden territory lately for Spartans (7.7 ppg last 3).
Even if UH down to 3rd-string QB Austin (starter Moniz KO’d vs. NMSU),

ADDED GAMES

FLORIDA 55 - Florida Intl. 7—Sure, Florida in late-season “sandwich” spot.
But Gators have “feasted” on the last 3 outclassed hoagies in the same
scheduling spot by combined 191-39 score (albeit, 2 were FCS squads), and HC
Meyer has covered 7 of past 8 vs. in-state schools. Tim Tebow says he has
never felt better at this stage of season, which doesn’t bode well for FIU defense
allowing 45 ppg vs. Troy, UL Monroe & Middle Tennessee. (FIRST MEETING)

Army 31 - NORTH TEXAS 21—Reports of potential Army bowl
eligibility aren’t some Fox News Channel fantasy...West Point has a chance at
slot in D.C.’s Eagle Bank Bowl if it can win its last two! And Black Knights should
get first half of that parlay if their option can play a little smashmouth (as
expected) vs. porous UNT “D” (allowed 33 or more last 8) and keeps capable
Mean Green QB Dodge on sidelines. (DNP...SR: Army 2-0)

TROY 46 - Florida Atlantic 21—Between puffs from his pipe, Howard
Schnellenberger pleased that jr. QB Jeff Van Camp (3 TDP vs. Ark. State)
indicating FAU can survive without the graduating (and now-injured) Rusty
Smith in 2010. But in ‘09, it’s advantage Troy, whose spread piled up nearly 500
yards at Arkansas and should strafe Owl “D” allowing 42 ppg on road.
(08-Troy 30-FLA. ATL. 17...20-20 T.51/233 F.31/75 F.21/41/2/283 T.11/24/1/127 T.0 F.1)
(08-Troy -3' 30-17 07-Fau +15' 38-32 06-Troy -3' 24-17...SR: Troy 5-1)

*La.-Monroe 27 - LA. LAFAYETTE 18—Pay attention, because with one
more win, ULM could be coming to a bowl game near you. Warhawks have won
last 5 games started by now-healthy QB Revell, and Charlie Weatherbie’s “O”
further balanced these days by RB Woodin (off career-best 169 YR vs. WKU).
Road team has covered last 6 in this Sun Belt rivalry!
(08-L.-Laf. 44-L.-MON. 35...L.19-15 L.37/556 M.40/241 L.15/23/2/172 M.12/25/0/142 L.1 M.0)
(08-Ull -2' 44-35 07-Ulm -3' 17-11 06-Ulm +3 39-20...SR: La.-Monroe 22-21)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 38 - Arkansas State 14—ASU’s
befuddled HC Roberts desperately tried to spark his disappointing squad
(picked 2nd in Sun Belt; dropped 7 of last 8) by benching his heralded sr. combo
of QB Leonard (frosh Aplin no meaningful TD drives in 35-18 loss at FAU) & RB
Arnold. Didn’t work. So, compelled to support surging, bowl-eligible MTSU,
smoothly led by mobile QB Dasher (781 YR!) and sizzling soph RB Kyles (427
YR last 3 games!).
(08-ARK. ST. 31-Mts 14...A.22-15 A.34/148 M.25/44 A.17/31/0/292 M.26/37/2/271 A.0 M.0)
(08-ASU -6 31-14 07-MTS -2' 24-7 06-Mts -4 38-10...SR: Middle Tennessee State 8-2)

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 24

*WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. Ball State—Check www.goldsheet.com on
game day for our complimentary prediction. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-BSU 45-Wmu 22...B.19-17 B.43/179 W.28/137 B.17/25/0/273 W.17/36/2/206 B.0 W.0)
(08-BSU -10' 45-22 07-Bsu -1 27-23 06-Wmu -3 41-27...SR: Western Michigan 19-16)

PITTSBURGH by 22 over Kansas City
PHILADELPHIA by 14 over Chicago
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Green Bay game

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19

*CAROLINA 27 - Miami 19—Yes, Saints are far over the horizon in the NFC
South. But Carolina scrambling back toward the wide-open wild card mix, with
Jake Delhomme cutting his mistakes and looking comfortable in Panthers’ nohuddle
offense. Miami not getting consistent production from its Wildcat in recent
weeks, and now Ronnie Brown (check status) has an ankle problem. Meanwhile,
Carolina playing a little smashmouth itself these days with DeAngelo Williams &
Jonathan Stewart (174 combined YR last week). TV—NFL NETWORK
(2009 Preseason: Miami -2' beat Carolina 27-17 at Miami)
(05-MIAMI +3 27-24...SR: Miami 3-0)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22

DETROIT 20 - Cleveland 13—Hard to make much of a case for either of these
stragglers. But the Cleveland “go-against” argument seems a bit more
persuasive, especially with Eric Mangini’s approval ratings in Ohio sinking to Dick
Cheney-like levels. Doubt Brady Quinn can be the answer for Brownies’ offensive
woes with his marginal supporting cast, and he was only 6 of 31 on third-down
conversions during his first stint as a starter. Detroit appearing to make slightly
more progress for its 1st-year HC Jim Schwartz. And prefer the livelier weapons
at Matt Stafford’s disposal.
(2009 Preseason: Cleveland -3 beat Detroit 27-10 at Cleveland)
(05-Detroit +3 13-10...SR: Detroit 16-5)

JACKSONVILLE 31 - Buffalo 17—Somewhat reluctant to recommend
Jacksonville, considering Jags’ failures last eight as home chalk. But we’ll make
an exception to that trend just to buck dysfunctional Buffalo bunch off a fourth-Q
meltdown at Tennessee and that has more to worry about than the usual T.O.
distractions (mistake-prone QB Edwards pulled in 4th Q; HC Jauron fast
approaching lame-duck status). The J’ville secondary tighter since CB Rashean
Mathis returned to lineup, and David Garrard has a quality downfield threat with the
emergence of WR Mike Sims-Walker. Jags above .500 for first time since ‘07!
(08-Buff. 20-JACK. 16...18-18 J.27/98 B.26/75 B.20/25/0/210 J.17/28/1/145 B.1 J.1)
(08-Buffalo +4' 20-16...SR: Buffalo 5-3)

Pittsburgh 35 - KANSAS CITY 13—Knee-jerk reaction is to expect a
bounce-back effort from Pittsburgh off tough home loss vs. Cincy. 2009 form
chart not so clear-cut, however, with Steelers splitting a pair after earlier losses
and not covering in two tries as DD chalk (vs. lowly Lions & Browns). Moreover,
the likely absence of Troy Polamalu (re-injured knee) limits the defense’s big-play
ability. However, must trust QB Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s big edge “in the
pits” on both sides of the ball, especially its zone blitz vs. K.C.’s shaky OL and
limited ground game.
(06-PITTSBURGH -6' 45-7...SR: Pittsburgh 17-9)

BALTIMORE 27 - Indianapolis 23—Whether you blame Belichick or not for
going for the risky first down last week, the Colts have now won 18 straight
regular-season games. But one must remember how the 2007 Ravens did
everything but beat 11-0 New England two years ago during the Pats’ perfect
regular season. With last week off, their quality ground game, blossoming QB,
and raucous crowd, the Ravens have a good chance to attack to the wounded
Indy defense and get the upset.
(08-INDY 31-Balt. 3...I.17-16 I.30/76 B.19/51 I.19/28/0/258 B.28/38/3/209 I.0 B.2)
(08-INDIANAPOLIS -4 31-3...SR: Indianapolis 7-2)

NY GIANTS 30 - Atlanta 20—Nobody needed a week off more than the New
Yorkers, who received a bit of unexpected good news during their “bye” when the
Eagles and Cowboys tossed them a pair of lifelines to keep the G-Men within
touch in the NFC East. With his sore foot getting a needed week of rest, Eli
Manning can be expected to do plenty of business vs. the burnable Atlanta
defense that continues to rank near the bottom vs. the pass. “Matty Ice” might
trade points for a while, but Falcon attack will lose power if RB Michael Turner
(ankle) out or limited.
(07-NY Giants -4 31-10...SR: Atlanta 10-9)

UNDER THE TOTAL GREEN BAY 17 - San Francisco 16—Green Bay
(41 sacks allowed!) can’t seem to shake its OL problems (due to injuries, player
shifts, inexperience), and now the Packers have injury issues lurking at LB.
G.B.’s concerns are just fine with well-rested S.F., which pressures well enough
to hold Peyton Manning without a TDP three weeks ago at Indy and which has
scored just enough points to cover TY on visits to the Cardinals, Vikings & Colts,
plus losing by only three at Houston. Mike Singletary’s stubborn defense,
ground-oriented offense have gone “under” 5 of last 7 away.
(06-Green Bay +4 30-19...SR: Green Bay 32-26-1)

MINNESOTA 27 - Seattle 20—Seattle only 3-6 SU and vs. the spread TY,
including 0-4 on the road. But the current Seahawks healthier than the groups
largely responsible for those losses. So, even with last week’s disappointment in
Arizona, prefer to be “taking” vs. the Vikes. Young RB Justin Forsett (123 YR)
sparked the offense last week, and fill-in MLB David Hawthorne (TCU product)
has been a revelation subbing for Lofa Tatupu. Prices on Vikes rising.
(06-Minnesota +6' 31-13...SR: Seattle 6-4)

DALLAS 29 - Washington 10—Well, a byproduct of Dallas’ ugly loss at Green
Bay is new grist for the coaching rumor mill that could use some new Wade
Phillips chatter, not to mention giving the media a high-profile coach other than
Charlie Weis to rake over the coals. While Phillips’ long-term prospects in Big D
were never that good, short-term we expect the Cowboys to recover, especially
if Washington offense reverts to its 17-points-or-fewer mode (check Clinton
Portis’ concussion). Dallas has won last three at home by 14, 16 & 21.
(08-Wash. 26-DAL. 24...W.22-21 W.34/164 D.11/44 D.28/47/1/300 W.20/31/0/220 W.0 D.0)
(08-Dal. 14-WASH. 10...D.17-14 D.28/117 W.18/92 D.19/27/2/198 W.22/35/1/136 D.0 W.0)
(08-Washington +10' 26-24, Dallas -1' 14-10...SR: Dallas 57-39-2)

New Orleans 34 - TAMPA BAY 13—Big QB edge, with the incomparable
Drew Brees vs. the inexperienced Josh Freeman. But both the Tampa Bay
defense (CB Aqib Talib 5 ints.; S Tanard Jackson 3 ints.) and its young offense
seem rejuvenated by rookie QB Josh Freeman (2-0 vs. spread as a starter; 4 TDs
vs. 2 ints.), helping the Buccaneers to 61 points in two games. New Orleans STs
& defense have collected eight return TDs. But big spreads are catching up to
Saints (0-3 vs. number last three).
(08-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 20...T.18-16 T.20/146 N.27/101 N.23/32/1/337 T.24/41/1/206 N.0 T.0)
(08-T. BAY 23-N. Orl. 20...N.18-11 T.34/149 N.18/44 N.25/47/3/288 T.9/23/0/105 T.1 N.0)
(08-NEW ORLEANS -3 24-20, TAMPA BAY -4 23-20...SR: New Orleans 20-14)

Arizona 24 - ST. LOUIS 20—Kurt Warner returns to his old stomping grounds,
facing the team that phased him out in favor of Marc Bulger. While the former
Ram Super Bowl winner is not vindictive by nature, he is a good traveler, as
evidenced by Arizona’s five straight wins as a visitor. However, those five were
all as an underdog. Credit the Rams’ Steve Spagnuolo for keeping his team
playing hard and for nabbing rookie WR Brandon Gibson (Washington State; 7
recs. last week) in the Will Witherspoon trade with Philly.
(08-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 13...A.24-13 A.33/177 S.20/61 A.23/34/0/333 S.16/33/2/170 A.0 S.1)
(08-ARIZ. 34-St. Lou. 10...A.18-17 S.25/85 A.22/63 A.24/33/1/272 S.22/38/1/223 A.0 S.2)
(08-Arizona -3 34-13, ARIZONA -14' 34-10...SR: St. Louis 31-28-2)

NEW ENGLAND 27 - NY Jets 11—Revenge game for the Patriots, who lost
16-9 in New York in Week Two, taking advantage of Tom Brady when he was
tentative in the early stages of his return from his knee injury. The Jets’ quick
early pressure worked especially well because Brady’s deluxe outlet guy—inside
receiver Wes Welker—missed the game with a knee injury. N.Y. rookie QB Mark
Sanchez had 4 TDP vs. just 2 ints. his first three games; he has 5 TDs vs. 10 ints.
his next six. Will the Brady Bunch hang their heads just because “The Hoodie”
didn’t punt last week? We think not.
(09-JETS 16-N. Eng. 9...Ne.18-14 Ny.31/117 Ne.20/83 Ne.23/47/1/216 Ny.14/22/0/137 Ny.1 Ne.0)
(08-N.E. 19-JETS 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(08-Jets 34-N.E. 31 (OT)...Ne.26-23 Ny.39/140 Ne.25/125 Ne.30/51/0/386 Ny.26/33/0/235 Ny.1 Ne.1)
(09-NY JETS +3' 16-9; 08-N. Eng. +1 19-10, NY Jets +3' 34-31 (OT)...SR: NY Jets 50-49-1)

Cincinnati 26 - OAKLAND 10—Some of its wounded players returned to
Oakland last week, while Cincy had to place WR Chris Henry & SS Roy Williams
on injured reserve and played 2nd half at Pittsburgh minus RB Cedric Benson.
But the underrated Bengal defense was No. 2 vs. the run through the first half of
the season, so it’s strength vs. strength against the Raider ground game. And
don’t ask about the Oakland “pass attack,” which has only two TDP its first nine
games! Plus, who doubts the Bengals now?
(06-CINCINNATI -10' 27-10...SR: Oakland 19-8)

San Diego 23 - DENVER 19—Initial reports are that Kyle Orton will miss this
game for Denver because of last week’s ankle injury. Under that circumstance,
must expect Phillip Rivers and coagulating S.D. offense to pull out the victory, as
Denver backup QB Chris Simms (3 of 13 at Washington) looked rustier than the
Tin Man before Dorothy showed up. Moreover, there are some concerns that the
smallish, quick Bronco defense might be wearing down late in the year. Broncos

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23

*Tennessee 27 - HOUSTON 26—Both teams have admirable momentum—
Houston is 11-4-1 vs. the spread overall its last 16, while Tennessee has won and
covered three straight with Houston native Vince Young at the controls. More
importantly, the elusive Chris Johnson (1091 YR TY; 9 recs. last week) and the
mobile Young provide the Titans with a rush edge in this game. Plus, the
Tennessee secondary (3 int. TDs the last two games) is healthy once again. And
Jeff Fisher’s OL has yielded only seven sacks TY. With Young a careful 44 of 62
as a starter, visitor has a good chance to win. Series “over’ 6-1 last 7.
CABLE TV—ESPN

Power Sweep

4* Rutgers
3* Texas
3* Army
2* Clemson
2* USF
2* Tennessee
Under Dog Play Michigan

NFL:

4* Minnesota
3* New England
2* Indy
2* Giants

Pointwise Red Sheet

Rutgers 34 - SYRACUSE 10 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 7½, and is now minus 8½. No
questioning the improvement of this year's 'Cuse edition, despite their 3-7 record. Hiring of
Marrone was a major plus, & will play out in the won/loss column in the near future. However,
the name of the game is numbers, & Syracuse's thin squad is losing the war of attrition,
with major injuries taking their toll. Throw in the fact that a bowl is now out of the
question. Enter the 7-2 Knights, who are once again in a late season rush, with a 31-0 rout
(32-pt cover) of a solid SoFlorida squad just the latest. They ran the table down the stretch
a year ago, own the Orange, & with the spot in the TD range, just can't ignore it.
RATING: RUTGERS 89

STANFORD 45 - California 16 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Stanford minus 6½, and is now minus 7. As we
wrote earlier on Pointwise, we've had this one circled for a month, & are simply shocked that
the line has come in at this low a number, especially with the previously unnoticed Cardinal
entering off that complete annihilation of USC (55-21, 44½ pt cover). And now Stanford
returns home, where it has been absolutely superb, covering 10 straight. In Gerhart, they
have the 3rd most prolific runner in the land, & Luck has now risen to 11th spot among the
nation's QBs. Cal is hurting, & hasn't impressed in a month. Revenge.
RATING: STANFORD 89

CLEMSON 48 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19, and is now minus 19½. The Tigers
have always been a streak team, & with that being the case, it's about time that we jumped
on this rolling juggernaut. Five straight wins; four straight covers; at least 40 pts in each of
their last 4 games; rushing for 252, 242, & 254 yds the last 3 weeks; covering their last 4
games by a combined 54½ pts; the #12 defense in the nation, etc, etc. And this week, they
host a Virginia squad which has dropped 4 straight, by a combined score of 128-53 (0-3-1
ATS), & finds itself out of the bowl picture. Can see no other result here.
RATING: CLEMSON 88

TENNESSEE 30 - Vanderbilt 3 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 16, and is now minus 17. The
rule in this series used to be simple. If the Vols were headed to a bowl, then the 'Dores were
a nice play as a solid underdog, with Tennessee looking past them. But if UT had failed to
secure a bowl shot, then they were loaded for bear, & would take out frustrations with a
thrashing of the always inferior Vandy. Not the case anymore, with the proliferation of bowl
games, but with the Vols at 5-5, this has become a full-focused affair. One of the top defenses
in the nation, vs a squad averaging just 8 ppg in SEC play. Got the picture?
RATING: TENNESSEE 88

NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Atlanta 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minis 7, and is still minus 7. Oh,
how the Giants needed that bye week. They were approaching the basket-case stage, with
4 consecutive losses, after opening with 5 wins. And to make matters worse, their topranked
defense was suddenly a sieve, allowing more than 33 ppg in those 4 losses. However,
those setbacks all came vs quality foes, so it's hardly time to push the panic button.
The Falcons have dropped their last 4 road games, RB Turner is doubtful, and QB Ryan has
thrown at least 1 interception in each of his last 6 contests. Bouncbacker!
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

New Orleans 41 - TAMPA BAY 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 11½, and is still minus 11½.
The Saints exploded onto the NFL scene this season, with blowout wins in their first 6 games,
winning by an average score of 40-21, & covering all six. Well, things have certainly quieted
down, spreadwise, but NewOrleans is still unscathed straightup. But last week's narrow
escape at 1-8 StLouis has to serve as a wakeup call. They have won their last 4 road
games by a combined 98 pts straightup, & Reggie is becoming a force. (13.8 yds per carry
last wk). Will be ready for Bucs, who upset GreenBay in last hoster.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Houston, Mississippi, Kentucky, Cent Fla - NFL: Pitt, Arizona, Houston

Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

These college best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread. 2009 record in parenthesis.

Friday, Nov. 20
BOWLING GREEN by 7 over Akron
TOLEDO by 24 over Eastern Michigan
Boise State by 27 over UTAH STATE

Saturday, Nov. 21

Rutgers (7-2) by 31 over SYRACUSE (2-8)—This game is the story of one team with a ton of talent and finally playing at the top of its game meeting a team with some talent, absolutely no depth and finding it more difficult each week to survive. Rutgers was somewhat of an unknown for the first half of the season but signaled the world it was back and up to speed this past week when it buried a good South Florida team, 31-0. Syracuse comes into this game off a heart-breaking 10-9 loss at Louisville in a game it had numerous opportunities to win—and you could tell it really hurt. The Orange have scored an average of just 8.7 points in each of their last three games and are simply up against it in this one against a lightning fast Rutgers team that shows no mercy to anyone.

FLORIDA STATE (5-5) by 28 over Maryland (2-8)—It is now or probably never for Florida State and its bowl hopes if it does not get the job done in this one. It should be as easy as it looks against a Maryland team that is young, mistake-prone, out of sync and with not one single game-breaking player. In other words it is not an accident the Terrapins are 2-8. FSU, which will be a big underdog at Florida next week, and that means it must get win number six in this one or not go bowling. With that incentive driving the Seminoles, who won at Wake Forest, 41-28, as a 4 ½-point underdog last week, has the talent to take care of business, and will.

MISSOURI (6-4) by 21 over Iowa State (6-5)—One can only ask where Missouri has been hiding wide-receiver Danario Alexander this season. Danario caught 10 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-12 win at Kansas State, giving him 414 yards receiving in the past two games. It is obvious he has given the up-and-down Tigers the boost they needed to put their season back together and my money says Iowa State won’t be able to stop him and quarterback Blaine Gabbart this week. Iowa State is a much-improved team and does own a 9-7 road win over Nebraska, but the Cyclones do not have an offense to keep with what has become a very explosive Missouri team.

TEMPLE (8-2) by 10 over Kent State (5-4)—Temple remains one of the most under-rated teams in the country and that is why the Owls are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. No one believes this former college football doormat can be this good, but let me assure you it is. Temple goes for its 9th straight win against a solid Kent State team and will not have an easy time of it but, in the end, The Owls talent, depth and speed should prevail. Temple comes into this game off a 56-17 win at Akron last week, while Kent arrives in Philadelphia off a much-needed bye week. As amazing as it might sound to some football pundits, Temple, which has shown dramatic growth and improvement under 4th-year coach Al Golden has a chance to go 10-2 this season.

MICHIGAN STATE (7-4) by 13 over Penn State (9-2)—This is one of those games where I just have a gut feeling Michigan State is going to fire its best shot and win with a certain degree of ease. The Nittany Lions overcame four first-half fumbles last week to finally get the win over a dramatically inferior Indiana team, 31-20, and obviously was much the best to do that. With that said, it must be noted Penn State is 9-2 only because it has played a powder puff schedule that includes the likes of Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. When it has played a good Big Ten team, it has been crushed, losing at Iowa, 21-10, and two games back at home to Ohio State, 24-7. Michigan State is a good Big Ten team and would like nothing better than to close out its season with a win that would upgrade its bowl position. My money says the Spartans will do just that.

HOUSTON (8-2) by 35 over Memphis (2-8)—A down-and-out Memphis football team that has beaten only 1-AA Tennessee-Martin and Texas-El Paso and seen its coach fired two weeks ago has gone from the frying pan into the fire for this one, after losing last week at home to UAB, 31-21. The Tigers are catching Houston coming off an upset 37-32 loss at Central Florida and in a major bounce-back mode. UCF got the money against Houston because it did one thing few teams can do—keep the ball away from Cougar quarterback Case Keenum and the explosive offense he leads. Central Florida had the ball for 39.30 of the 60-minute game against Houston and it worked. Unfortunately Memphis does not have the talent to do that and there is no way the Tigers are going to out-shoot Houston. It should be a blowout.

UL-MONROE (6-4) by 14 over UL-Lafayette (6-4)—This is the most important game UL-Monroe (6-4) has played since it became a member of the NCAA 1-A ranks in 1994. A win in this spot will guarantee the Warhawks have their first winning season since leaving 1-AA and, more than that, will more than likely get them their first-ever bowl bid. There is little question in my mind UL-Monroe will get the win and it has far more to do with talent than it does incentive. The Warhawks are a very decent football team and it must be pointed out their four losses have come at Texas, at Arizona State, at Kentucky and at Troy. Coach Charlie Weatherbie’s time has come.

Best Of The Rest
OHIO by 3 over Northern Illinois
CLEMSON by 21 over Virginia
Wisconsin by 13 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA by 17 over Minnesota
SOUTH FLORIDA by 14 over Louisville
INDIANA by 4 over Purdue
North Carolina by 7 over BOSTON COLLEGE
VIRGINIA TECH by 21 over N.C. State
Vanderbilt by 3 over TENNESSEE
Kentucky by 7 over GEORGIA
TCU by 31 over Wyoming
*ARKANSAS by 9 over Mississippi State
Oregon State by 42 over WASHINGTON STATE
UCLA by 3 over Arizona State
STANFORD by 7 over California
LSU by 3 over MISSISSIPPI
BYU by 17 over Air Force
EAST CAROLINA by 7 over UAB
Kansas State by 6 over NEBRASKA
Texas Tech by 10 over OKLAHOMA
Baylor by 6 over TEXAS A&M
Rice by 1 over UTEP
UTAH by 24 over San Diego State
FRESNO STATE by 15 over Louisiana Tech
Colorado State by 7 over NEW MEXICO
ARIZONA by 3 over Oregon
SMU by 3 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS by 10 over Tulsa
TEXAS by 45 over Kansas
MIAMI by 20 over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA by 35 over Tulane
Nevada by 42 over NEW MEXICO STATE
Hawaii by 21 over SAN JOSE STATE
FLORIDA by 55 over Florida International
Army by 10 over NORTH TEXAS
TROY by 14 over Florida Atlantic
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over Arkansas State

NFL BEST BETS

These NFL best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.

Sunday, Nov. 22

Steelers by 28 over CHIEFS—The Steelers, who lost at home last week, 18-12, to the Cincinnati Bengals, are not going to be in a benevolent frame of mind when they take the field at Arrowhead against a Kansas City team that is coached by a fool. If Pittsburgh did not need to put itself back on track, the Steelers would still be a very tough opponent for Kansas City. The Chiefs, who on offense average but 15.8 points and 257.8 yards per game, will have the task of trying to move the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that is quick to the ball and gives up nothing.

VIKINGS by 17 over Seahawks—The Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are on a roll and have every single edge over the Seahawks in this one. Ageless quarterback Brett Favre has never played better—and I mean just that—and the Vikings have a chemistry on both offense and defense that is a weapon within itself. Seattle certainly has room to improve but went 0-3 in their first three games on the road this season and in this contest will be playing its second straight away game and its third road game in its last four.

PATRIOTS by 21 over Jets—The New York Jets were certainly brought back to earth last week when the fell at home to Jacksonville, 24-22. It was their second straight loss and served as a wake-up call that all that talk about the playoffs was just that—talk. New York opened the season 3-0 but has since gone 1-5, with the lone win coming at Oakland. New England beat the Jets, 16-9, at The Meadowlands earlier in the season and New England is a much better team now than it was then. Now factor into the equation the dislike Pats Coach Bill Belichick has for the Jets and the New Yorkers figure to be in for a long afternoon.

Bengals by 24 over RAIDERS—As noted elsewhere in this publication, the 7-2 Bengals are for real. Not only are they getting it done with a very sophisticated offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer, the Bengals have come up with one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 16.9 points and 325.5 yards per game—and those numbers came against some of the best the league has to offer. This is a game in which talent and discipline trumps anything the Raiders bring to the game. For the record, Cincinnati is going for its 6th straight road win.

Best Of The Rest
JAGUARS by 10 over Bills
RAVENS by 3 over Colts
GIANTS by 4 over Falcons
PACKERS by 7 over 49ers
COWBOYS by 13 over Redskins
Saints by 14 over BUCS
Cardinals by 10 over RAMS
Chargers by 7 over BRONCOS
BEARS by 4 over Eagles

Logical Approach

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: California + 7 over STANFORD - Stanford enters the "Big Game" with plenty of momentum following wins over Oregon and USC by a combined score 106-63, topping 50 points against each. Earlier Cal lost to both by a combined 72-6, dashing their hopes of a Rose Bowl season and once again disappointing those who seeming annually predict big things for the Cal program. But that's what makes rivalry games so special. The underdog, especially a talented one, generally has the greater motivation to either salvage their season or ruin their biggest foe's. Cal is without their best player, RB Best, but even in his absence defeated Rose Bowl contender Arizona last week. There are not too many negatives to cite about Stanford other than a letdown would not be a surprise following those two huge wins even against their most bitter of rivals. Cal has won 6 of the last 7 in the series (all as favorites) so Stanford will be motivated as well. Cal has a slightly better defense, especially against the run, the strength of Stanford's offense. Although an upset would not surprise , the call is for a close game, Stanford wins but by just 34-31.

Other Featured College Selections

Kentucky + 9 over GEORGIA - Both teams are 6-4 which represents a disappointing season for Georgia but a solid campaign for Kentucky. These teams have similar resumes including wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn and one sided losses to Florida. They are very similar statistically. On offense Kentucky has a better ground game while Georgia has been stronger through the air. Defensively Georgia is stronger against the run while Kentucky is better defending the pass. Georgia has dominated this series over the years but KY has been much more competitive of late, covering 2 of the last 3 with a straight up win. This is Georgia's weakest team since they were 8-4 in 2001. Kentucky is having a season similar to the last 3 seasons that have seen the Wildcats go to 3 straight Bowls. Both teams have traditional season ending games on deck and with these teams so evenly matched a close game should result. Georgia wins but by just 27-24.

BYU - 10 over Air Force - The Mountain West has unfolded pretty much as expected with TCU the clearly dominant team, followed by BYU and Utah and then a gap to Air Force and then a huge dropoff to the rest of the conference. BYU is 8-2 with one sided losses to TCU and Florida State, both of which have come on their home field. Air Force is enjoying a solid season and they gave TCU their toughest test, losing 20-17 at home despite being outgained by over 100 yards. The Force has played outstanding defense all season and value the football, losing just 7 turnovers all season. But BYU has dominated Air Force recently, winning 5 straight with each win by at least 14 points with an average score of 41-22. Even the past 2 seasons, when AF won 8 and 9 games, BYU defeated Air Force handily. There's too much of a talent edge for BYU. Air Force plays smartly and will hang tough for a while, but BYU ultimately creates distance. BYU wins 37-20.

HOUSTON - 24 over Memphis - Houston suffered only their second loss of the season last week and has a chance for a 10 win season with a win here and next week over Rice. The Cougars have fared well when stepping up in class this season with wins at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State and at home over Texas Tech. Memphis is 2-8 and fired coach West last week. His team responded with a flat effort in their final home game against UAB and it's hard to see the Tigers having any motivation as they play their final 2 games. Houston has a high powered, quick strike offense but their defense is very weak. But Memphis' offense has struggled all season to find consistency. The defense is allowing nearly 16 yards per completion, a sign of either poor positioning or poor tackling - or both! Memphis is 1-8 ATS - worst in the nation, clearly showing underachievement against expectations. Houston has the firepower to put points on the board and Memphis is likely to show little resistance. Once they fall behind they likely also lose interest. Houston wins 54-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinion)
BOWLING GREEN - 11 over Akron (Fri)
OHIO U Pick 'em over Northern Illinois

Wisconsin - 7 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA - 10 over Minnesota

Rutgers - 8 over SYRACUSE
INDIANA + 3 over Purdue

VIRGINIA TECH - 21 over North Carolina State
MISSOURI - 15 over Iowa State

Vanderbilt + 16 1/1 over TENNESSEE
TEMPLE - 13 over Kent State

NOTRE DAME - 6 over Connecticut
Penn State - 3 over MICHIGAN STATE

MISSISSIPPI - 4 over Lsu
Kansas State + 16 over NEBRASKA

TEXAS TECH + 6 ½ over Oklahoma
Louisiana Tech + 10 over FRESNO STATE

NEW MEXICO + 4 ½ over Colorado State
ARIZONA + 6 over Oregon

Smu + 4 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Tulsa

FLORIDA - 45 over Florida International
TROY - 16 ½ over Florida Atlantic

UL Monroe - 2 over UL LAFAYETTE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 11 over Arkansas State

Red Sheet

Rutgers 34 - SYRACUSE 10 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 7½, and is now minus 8½. No
questioning the improvement of this year's 'Cuse edition, despite their 3-7 record. Hiring of
Marrone was a major plus, & will play out in the won/loss column in the near future. However,
the name of the game is numbers, & Syracuse's thin squad is losing the war of attrition,
with major injuries taking their toll. Throw in the fact that a bowl is now out of the
question. Enter the 7-2 Knights, who are once again in a late season rush, with a 31-0 rout
(32-pt cover) of a solid SoFlorida squad just the latest. They ran the table down the stretch
a year ago, own the Orange, & with the spot in the TD range, just can't ignore it.
RATING: RUTGERS 89

STANFORD 45 - California 16 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Stanford minus 6½, and is now minus 7. As we
wrote earlier on Pointwise, we've had this one circled for a month, & are simply shocked that
the line has come in at this low a number, especially with the previously unnoticed Cardinal
entering off that complete annihilation of USC (55-21, 44½ pt cover). And now Stanford
returns home, where it has been absolutely superb, covering 10 straight. In Gerhart, they
have the 3rd most prolific runner in the land, & Luck has now risen to 11th spot among the
nation's QBs. Cal is hurting, & hasn't impressed in a month. Revenge.
RATING: STANFORD 89

CLEMSON 48 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19, and is now minus 19½. The Tigers
have always been a streak team, & with that being the case, it's about time that we jumped
on this rolling juggernaut. Five straight wins; four straight covers; at least 40 pts in each of
their last 4 games; rushing for 252, 242, & 254 yds the last 3 weeks; covering their last 4
games by a combined 54½ pts; the #12 defense in the nation, etc, etc. And this week, they
host a Virginia squad which has dropped 4 straight, by a combined score of 128-53 (0-3-1
ATS), & finds itself out of the bowl picture. Can see no other result here.
RATING: CLEMSON 88