Newsletters 11/25 - 11/30

RATING 5 NEBRASKA (-16) over Colorado
RATING 4 WEST VIRGINIA (-3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 FRESNO STATE (+19½) over Boise State
RATING 2 MISSISSIPPI (-13) over Mississippi State
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over Rice
RATING 1 UTEP (+5½) over East Carolina
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (+7½) over Oklahoma

BALL STATE (-10) Western Michigan 6:00 PM
Even though Ball State has dominated the MAC this season and sits
at 11-0, the Cardinals must win this game to play for the conference
championship. Western Michigan has just one conference loss and
the Broncos have an impressive resume including a win over Illinois
this season. Neither defense has been dominant this season in
terms of yardage but Ball State has great scoring numbers and also
a more balanced offensive attack. Last season Ball State beat
Western Michigan 27-23 in a game where turnovers played a big
role. Ball State was actually significantly out-gained last week and a
similar style of passing offense could again put up big numbers
against the Cardinals. Western Michigan has not played a true road
game since mid-October so Ball State can survive. BALL ST BY 7

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) Navy 6:00 PM
Northern Illinois delivered a big road win last week to reach bowl
eligibility but the Huskies might want to bolster the resume and get
to 7-5 and enhance the bowl chances. This has been the least
impressive Navy squad in recent years but given the coaching
change and key injuries the Midshipmen have had a solid season.
Navy is 0-2 ATS against the MAC this season and Northern Illinois
has featured the best statistical defense in the conference this
season. This could be a tough sandwich game for Navy having
played a tight game with Notre Dame in the last contest and facing
the rivalry finale against Army next week. Navy beat Northern Illinois
35-24 last season but the tables could turn this year. NIU BY 10

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008

TEXAS (-34) Texas A&M 7:00 PM
The Longhorns will need to make its case in the media polls but the
reality is they probably need two major upsets to have a chance at
the Big 12 title game or the BCS title game. The Longhorns still
could manage a BCS spot but very little is under its own control
other than this final game. Texas A&M has covered in three straight
games against Texas, including upset wins each of the past two
years. It has been a tough year for the Aggies but this would be an
opportunity for a redeeming victory. With a defense that allows over
455 yards per game and an offense that lacks a reliable running
game it is tough to expect the Aggies to keep up in this match-up.
Texas has been vulnerable against strong passing teams ranking
110th nationally in passing yards allowed and A&M can have a
productive air attack to find the end zone. TEXAS BY 21

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2008

West Virginia (-3) PITTSBURGH 11:00 AM
Pittsburgh did not help out West Virginia last week and Cincinnati is
in a great position for the Big East title but this will still be a huge
rivalry game to close out the year. West Virginia was bound for the
BCS title game last season before Pittsburgh won 13-9 in
Morgantown late last year as a nearly 30-point underdog. West
Virginia has had great success in this series in the past decade and
statistically the Mountaineers have major edges on both sides of the
ball. West Virginia had a lot of help with turnovers last week but the
offense is starting to play like the team many expected to see early
in the year, scoring an average of 31.75 points the last four games.
Pittsburgh needed to win last week and came up just short, look for
a letdown, even in a rivalry game. WEST VIRGINIA BY 14

MIAMI, OH (-1) Ohio 11:30 AM
Miami has lost four consecutive games and has just one FBS win on
the season despite relatively high expectations to start the year.
Ohio delivered a big win last week over Akron and the Bobcats have
been very competitive this year despite a poor record. Ohio had just
199 yards of offense in this match-up last season but won 38-29
with special teams and the defense making big plays. Turnovers
have been a huge problem for both teams this year with two of the
worst margins in the nation on the season. Although Miami has
shown little fight in recent weeks this could be a more favorable
situation for the season finale. Ohio allowed 42 points while being
out-gained last week and still ended up with a win. MIAMI BY 3

MISSISSIPPI (-13) Mississippi State 11:30 AM
Last week’s win over LSU was huge for Ole Miss and the Egg Bowl
game will be a tough follow-up. Mississippi blew a 14-0 lead last
season to lose and the home team has won S/U each of the last four
years. Mississippi State came up with a great performance last week
for its most complete offensive game of the season. Playing on the
road has been a challenge for the Bulldogs with a 0-5 S/U record
and only one cover on the year. Mississippi has been the
dramatically superior team on both sides of the ball and the Rebels
should be pull away with a big victory margin. A letdown after the
LSU game won’t happen in a rivalry game. OLE MISS BY 24

TEMPLE (-2½) Akron 12:00 PM
Akron has seen its bowl hopes slipping away with losses the last two
weeks. The Zips could still get to six wins this week but it may not be
enough to get a bowl bid this season. The Temple defense had
good numbers early in the year but the Owls have allowed an
average of 42 points per game the last three games. Akron has
been no better on defense, allowing at least 30 points in five straight
games. Special teams have been strong area for Temple and the
record at home has been favorable but recent struggling against two
of the worst teams in the MAC is a concern. The Owls may have a
similar game to last week with a narrow win but difficulty getting
stops to pull away in the match-up. TEMPLE BY 3

EAST CAROLINA (-5½) Utep 12:00 PM
The Miners lost a tight game last week but at 5-6 bowl eligibility is
still a possibility. Last season these teams went to overtime with
East Carolina winning by three in a game that UTEP posted nearly
600 yards. Last week’s narrow win for East Carolina clinched the CUSA
East division title so there is much less on the line for the
Pirates in this game. UTEP has a great record as an underdog in
recent years and the Miners are on a 3-game ATS winning streak.
East Carolina is 1-8 ATS in the last nine games, still overvalued
from the great start to the year. East Carolina has not topped 20
points in four straight games and the Pirates will have a hard time
keeping up with UTEP’s offense. UTEP BY 4

Central Michigan (-10½) EASTERN MICHIGAN 11:00 AM
The Chippewas significantly out-gained undefeated Ball State last
week but it was not enough to pull out the upset. Central will get a
bowl invite this season but it is a bit of a disappointment after backto-
back conference titles. Despite vastly different results from these
two programs in recent years this series has been incredibly close.
Each of the last four games has been decided by seven points or
less with three of those games going to overtime. Last year Eastern
Michigan gave Central its only division loss but given the
circumstances this figures to be another close game as the rivalry
means much more to the underdog Eagles. Eastern Michigan has
covered in two of the last three games and can score. CM BY 7

BUFFALO (-10) Kent State 1:00 PM
The Bulls locked up a spot in the conference championship game
with a comeback win last week and the Bulls have delivered a very
successful season for a program that was recently among the worst
in the nation. Buffalo beat Kent late last season in overtime and after
the Flashes failed last week in its final home game it is hard to
envision a great effort from either team this week. Kent has been a
horrible ATS team in recent years with bad numbers on the road
while Buffalo is 8-3 ATS on the season. The productive running
game for Kent gives the Flashes potential and last week’s ugly loss
was filled with turnovers. Turnovers have been a big part of the
success for Buffalo however. BUFFALO BY 13

Lsu (-5) ARKANSAS @Little Rock 1:30 PM
After skating by in close games against mediocre teams and getting
whipped by the elite teams LSU found its palce as an emerging
Mississippi team delivered a big win last week in Baton Rouge. The
Tigers barely eclipsed 200 yards in the game, and the defense
continues to allow a lot points. Arkansas failed to cover in a narrow
loss last week, missing ATS for the first time since early October.
Last season Arkansas beat LSU in what was assum ed to be a
crippling second loss late in the season but the Tigers still wound up
in the BCS title game. Arkansas has become a very different team
since that triple OT win and last week’s loss sealed any hopes of
reaching bowl eligibility. LSU could bounce back as last week’s ugly
loss came on the heels of a miraculous comeback win. LSU has
struggled against the spread at home in recent years but the Tigers
are 16-7-1 ATS on the road since ’03. LSU BY 10

TOLEDO (NL) Bowling Green 2:30 PM
Bowling Green los t a big lead last week and with it went division title
hopes and possibly bowl hopes. Depending how everything unfolds
in other conferences there may not be room in the postseason for
the Falcons even if they reach 6-6 with a win this week. Toledo has
covered in three of the last four games and the historical home field
edge in this stadium has been incredible. These teams are nearly
identical statistically in terms of yardage gained and allowed but
Bowling Green has produced better numbers in terms of scoring this
season. Toledo lost 37-10 last season so this could be a big
revenge game to close the season at home. The Rockets have
covered in nearly 65 percent of home games since coming on the
betting board back in 1998. TOLEDO BY 3

NEBRASKA (-16) Colorado 2:30 PM
Last season Colorado won 65-51 in Boulder to clinch a bowl spot
and the situation is similar this year as the Buffaloes are sitting at 5-
6 and in need of one more win. Nebraska has won four of the past
five games and is averaging 35 points per game. In great contrast,
Colorado’s offense has really struggled to score, averaging less than
20 points per game. Colorado has covered in just one of the last
eight games including going 0-4 in road games. Given a revenge
game for the final game in a tough home venue Nebraska can carry
some momentum into the bowl season. Nebraska’s defense has
ugly numbers but Colorado has actually allowed even more yardage
per game this season. Colorado has had recent success in this
series but this situation favors the Hus kers. NEBRASKA BY 27

BOISE STATE (-19½) Fresno State 5:00 PM
This could be a difficult spot for Boise State. Last week’s road game
at Nevada was hyped as the toughest remaining spot on the
schedule for the undefeated Broncos and despite four turnovers the
Broncos survived. Fresno State is a talented team that has
underperformed most of the season but is capable of rising up for a
game of this magnitude. Boise State also saw Utah clinch an
undefeated season and spoil any hopes of the Broncos making it to
a BCS bowl last week so this could be a flat spot. Boise State has
clinched the WAC title and although playing for an undefeated
season is a motivator this could be a challenging game. Fresno’s
defense has played well the last two weeks allowing just 27 points
and the Bulldogs might have one good game left in them. Boise
State has had great success in this series but Fresno State was a
winner the last time it played on this field, taking the ’07
Humanitarian Bowl. BOISE STATE BY 10

ARIZONA STATE (-10) Ucla 8:30 PM
Last season Arizona State delivered a late defensive stand to hold
on for the win against UCLA and this could be another competitive
game. ASU had very high expectations to start the season but it has
been a horribly disappointing year although a bowl is still a
possibility with two more wins. Arizona State has won back-to-back
games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the
nation, Washington and Washington State. UCLA also could still
reach six wins but it is an extreme long shot with next week’s game
against USC. UCLA’s offense has not been productive this season
but the pass defense has been very good, an important factor
against an Arizona State team that struggles to run the ball. Arizona
State has lost outright in three out of four home games this season
and UCLA has won five of the past seven in this series. UCLA BY 3

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2008

Miami, FL (-1) NC STATE 11:00 AM
The five game Hurricane winning streak was snapped in brutal
fashion last week as Miami allowed over 500 yards in a primetime
loss. NC State delivered one of the more shocking results last week
winning 41-10 as a 6-0 turnover margin helped the cause. NC State
has now won three consecutive games and with a victory this week
the Wolfpack will reach 6-6 and a bowl game, an incredible feat
considering the 2-6 start to the year. Miami’s defense has posted
significantly superior numbers and after last week’s disaster the
defense should be motivated for a much better effort this week. NC
State won 19-16 late last season at the Orange Bowl in overtime
and this is a revenge game for the Canes. Miami is still alive in the
ACC Coastal chase so this is a critical game. MIAMI BY 7

WAKE FOREST (-3½) Vanderbilt 6:00 PM
The Demon Deacons appeared to have sealed up a narrow win last
week before a final drive led to a narrow BC victory and knocked
Wake Forest out of the division race. Both of these teams are bowl
eligible at 6-5 but the second half of the year has been much worse
than the first half for both teams. Both teams have impressive
numbers on defense this season, averaging fewer than 320 yards
per game allowed. The Commodores lost at home last week but on
the year Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS on the road while Wake Forest
continues to struggle in the favorite role. Wake Forest has been the
more productive offensive team but the Deacons have been
handicapped by the injury to kicker Swank as last week’s result
would have been different with more confidence in the kicking game.
Vanderbilt averages just 20 points per game but should be able to
bounce back catching Wake of a tough loss. VANDERBILT BY 4

BOSTON COLLEGE (-6½) Maryland 2:30 PM
Boston College found a way to win last week and the Eagles control
their own destiny, having already defeated Florida State and facing
the other Atlantic contender this week. Maryland endured a
disastrous game last week with four turnovers and a quick early
deficit that could not be recovered from. Maryland has not been a
strong performer on the road but the Terps have also not lost backto-
back games all season. BC QB Crane was injured last week and
is not expected to play this week so the Eagles could have a tough
game against a Maryland defense that has been better than the
numbers indicate. Maryland beat Boston College last season when
the Eagles were a top ten ranked team and Boston College can be
carried by its defense for a critical win that would clinch a spot in the
ACC championship game next week. BC BY 10

VIRGINIA TECH (-8½) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Hokies have covered in seven of the las t nine in this series but
both offenses have had a tough time scoring points in recent games.
Virginia Tech is just 2-4 ATS in the last six games and the Hokies
have failed to top 23 points in five straight games. Virginia
meanwhile is averaging just over 16 points per game on the season.
After a four game win streak mid-season Virginia has now lost three
straight games and the Cavaliers need to win this game to become
bowl eligible. Virginia Tech is still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal
title needing a win and a Miami loss to lock it up. Virginia has played
one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the last three losses
have all been close games. Virginia Tech won unimpressively last
week in a game that featured nine total turnovers and this is a game
that the Cavaliers will rise up for. VIRGINIA BY 3

North Carolina (-8½) DUKE 2:30 PM
Despite being down their staring QB and RB Duke played close with
Virginia Tech last week but the offense only managed 136 yards.
North Carolina suffered six turnovers in a lopsided loss and the Tar
Heels have knocked themselves out of the ACC championship
picture. North Carolina has been an up and down team and despite
having the opposite record of Duke at 7-4, the Tar Heels hold only a
very slight yards per game average on offense and Duke’s defense
has actually allowed fewer yards on the season. This rivalry game
has favored Duke against the spread in recent years but the Blue
Devils have also been a terrible home underdog. Last season UNC
needed OT to knock off Duke and this game has been decided by
six or fewer points each of the last three years. Duke will make this
game interesting but likely falls just short yet again. UNC BY 7

CINCINNATI (-22) Syracuse 11:00 AM
The Bearcats have a great final game to clinch the Big East title and
the BCS spot but recall that West Virginia failed in a very similar
spot last year as a 29-point favorite. Syracuse has had a rough year
but they own wins over two respectable teams Louisville and Notre
Dame. Syracuse has played through the toughest schedule of any
Big East team. The statistics are overwhelming in Cincinnati’s favor
but the Bearcats own few blowouts, scoring 28 or fewer in each of
the last six games. Although Cincinnati is 9-2 they are out-gaining
foes by just 50 yards per game and own five wins by eight points or
fewer. Cincinnati’s defense has earned praise but in four of the last
five games opponents have scored at least 20 points. This will be
the third road game in four weeks for the Orange coming off a huge
win and Cincinnati capitalizes on mistakes. CINCINNATI BY 27

TEXAS TECH (-20) Baylor 2:30 PM
The Red Raiders ended the perfect run last week and surrendered
hopes of a BCS championship, a Big 12 championship, and a Big 12
South championship. Texas Tech gave up over 600 yards and the
great offense could get nothing going until the game was well out of
reach. The emotional toll after such a loss will be tough to bounce
back from. Baylor has been a greatly improved team and the Bears
will have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Baylor is 8-2 ATS
in the last ten games as the Bears have been very competitive this
year. The Bears rush for 192 yards per game with a dangerous
mobile QB but the Baylor defense will likely have problems in this
match-up. Although Texas Tech has significant edges in this matchup
this is a tough situation to play well in. TEXAS TECH BY 17

MEMPHIS (-13) Tulane 1:00 PM
The Tigers allowed less than 200 yards last week while posting solid
offensive numbers but still managed to lose. Memphis is not yet
bowl eligible so this is a critical game for the Tigers . Tulane has now
lost seven straight and the defense was torn up last week for nearly
600 yards, mostly on the ground. The Wave has been out-scored by
a nearly 3-to-1 margin in the last seven games, allowing an average
of over 40 points per game. Memphis needs to win this game and
Tulane has shown no signs of life since injuries have crippled the
team. Memphis won by just a single point last season but that has
not been the norm in this series. MEMPHIS BY 24

Nevada (-3½) LOUISIANA TECH 1:30 PM
Although Nevada has received a bit more attention, Louisiana Tech
quietly has posted the superior record at 7-4. The Bulldogs have
won several close games this season but at 5-2 in the WAC
Louisiana Tech has to be taken seriously. Nevada rushes for over
300 yards per game but Louisiana Tech is also capable of posting
huge numbers on the ground. Louisiana Tech has much better
scoring and yardage numbers on defense although Nevada has
played a tougher schedule. Nevada played close with Boise State
last week but the Wolfpack had a 4-0 turnover edge that kept them
in the game as they were badly out-gained. It will be tough for
Nevada to bounce back after the big game. LA TECH BY 10

Houston (-3) RICE 2:30 PM
Houston has won three consecutive games and having already
defeated Tulsa, the Cougars can clinch the C-USA West by
knocking off Rice, who is also 6-1 in conference play. Rice has won
five straight games and the Owls are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 home
games. Houston has won the last four meetings but the last two
have been incredibly close. Both defenses allow over 400 yards per
game but Houston’s offensive production has been at another level
of late, averaging 569 yards per game on the year. This rivalry game
could be close between nearby schools but Rice has not defeated a
team with a winning record all season long. HOUSTON BY 14

UTAH STATE (-6) New Mexico State 2:00 PM
Utah State has covered in three of the last four games despite only
two outright wins all season. New Mexico State has lost six in a row
but they have played competitive games the last two weeks against
teams with winning records. New Mexico State owns an explosive
passing offense but the NMS Aggies also allow big numbers this
year. Utah State has been a much more competitive team at home
and USU Aggies are rested coming off a bye week. Utah State beat
New Mexico State as underdogs last season and own success in
this long running series. UTAH STATE BY 9

Southern Mississippi (-13½) SMU 2:00 PM
The Golden Eagles need one more win to reach bowl eligibility and
riding a three game win streak Southern Miss has some momentum.
SMU has not won since early September but there have been
several competitive efforts mixed in. SMU has some of the worst
defensive numbers in the nation and Southern Miss is a highly
productive offensive team, particularly in the last month. The Golden
Eagles have had strong success as a road favorite with a 13-4
record in the last 17 attempts. SMU has played one of toughest
schedules of any C-USA team but the Mustangs have allowed at
least 31 points in every game this season while scoring that many
only three times. Southern Miss has allowed just 23 total points on
the three game win streak and as long as the bye week did not take
away the momentum another win is there. SO MISS BY 21

Missouri (-13) Kansas @Kansas City, MO 11:30 AM
This was a huge game last season that Missouri won yet it was
Kansas that earned a BCS bowl spot. Missouri has not lived up to
expectations this season but at 9-2 the Tigers can still make a BCS
bowl trip by winning the Big 12 title game next week, back in Kansas
City. The Missouri defense has struggled this season but the offense
can put up huge numbers. Kansas has played a tougher schedule
this year and the Jayhawks are allowing over 28 points per game
with terrible numbers against the pass so this will be a tough matchup.
This is a bitter rivalry that does not always get national publicity
but there is really nothing on the line for either team as Missouri has
clinched the North title and Kansas is bowl eligible. This is typically
not a close series and even though Missouri won last season the
Tigers will be motivated by the bowl snub. MISSOURI BY 21

Oklahoma (-7½) OKLAHOMA STATE 7:00 PM
The BCS championship talk has already begun and the debate
between Texas and Oklahoma will rage on but the bottom line is that
if Oklahoma wins this week they will likely move ahead of Texas in
the BCS rankings and represent the Big 12 South in the title game.
A loss here obviously changes things and Oklahoma needs Texas
Tech to beat Baylor to create the three-way tie. Winning this game is
far from a given however. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and the Cowboys
have covered in nine of the last 13 meetings. Oklahoma State’s
offense is nearly as productive as Oklahoma’s and the Oklahoma
defense that dominated last week has not played that way most of
the season. While Oklahoma was winning the huge game last week
the Cowboys were on an off week, getting extra preparation in for
this game. Given the media attention and extra distractions with the
high ranking this will be a very tough spot for the Sooners and a
Oklahoma State win would not be a surprise. OSU BY 3

GEORGIA (-8) Georgia Tech 11:00 AM
The Bulldogs have won the last seven meetings but this is a very
different Georgia Tech team this season. The Bulldogs have had
more time to prepare for this game but Georgia Tech impressively
dominated Miami last week and the Yellow Jackets could be default
division title winners in the ACC depending on this week’s other
ACC games. Georgia is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games and the
Bulldogs have not played well in the favorite role this year. Georgia
Tech owns superior defensive numbers this season and the ACC
has outranked the SEC in terms of overall quality this season.
Georgia lost badly to the best two teams in the SEC and Georgia
Tech is a difficult team to prepare for as well as a difficult team to
beat by a significant margin. GEORGIA BY 7

Tulsa (-14) MARSHALL 2:30 PM
The Golden Hurricane bounced back last week after two losses to
deliver a convincing win last week with huge rushing numbers.
Marshall has played well in the home underdog role but the Herd
has had a tough time scoring points this season, averaging less than
20 per game. Tulsa still owns the most productive offense in the
country although the numbers have slipped in recent weeks. Tulsa’s
defense is vulnerable but it is hard to expect Marshall to take
advantage unless turnovers are a big factor. Marshall owns wins
over three of the better offenses in the conference this season
beating Memphis, Southern Miss, and Houston so the Herd is
capable of delivering a great game against a good team. Tulsa can
win the C-USA West title with a Rice victory over Houston so there
will be no letting up from the Hurricane. TULSA BY 23

ALABAMA (-14½) Auburn 2:30 PM
Although Alabama is the top ranked team in the nation and a heavy
favorite here, Auburn has won six in a row in the Iron Bowl. Each of
the last six meetings has been decided by ten points or less and the
Tigers especially need to win this season as they are not yet bowl
eligible. Auburn’s defense is allowing just 16 points per game and
the talent on defense can keep the Tigers in the game. Mistakes on
offense have been a big problem and Alabama has been productive
but not a dominant offensive team. Alabama has horrible numbers
as a home favorite in recent years, going 4-18 ATS in the last 22 at
home although winning and covering in the last two. All the pressure
is on Alabama in this game and although the Tide has delivered in
the big games this season they may have trouble pulling away from
an Auburn team that would love to spoil the great Alabama season.
Expect a closer game than the spread suggests. ALABAMA BY 7

Florida (-15½) FLORIDA STATE 2:30 PM
The Seminoles did not have a lot of offensive production last week
but turnovers led to a lopsided win for Florida State to stay in
contention in the ACC. FSU needs Maryland to win this week to
claim the tiebreaker and play for a BCS spot next week. Florida
State lost 45-12 last season against Florida in an embarrassing
display but in 2006 the Gators nearly had its national championship
bid taken away as Florida State has played the Gators very tough at
home. Florida has been on cruise control with seven straight wins
since the loss to Ole Miss, and that loss is the lone ATS loss on the
season for the Gators. Many are penciling in the Gators for the BCS
championship game but there are two tough games ahead and
overlooking this game would be a big mistake. The Florida State
defense can keep this game close but ultimately Florida likely pulls
away and the Gator special teams have also been a huge factor this
season producing big plays every week. FLORIDA BY 21

TENNESSEE (-5) Kentucky 5:30 PM
The Volunteers had just 243 yards of offense last week but
managed to win. It may be hard to replicate that fortune in Coach
Fulmer’s send-off game. Last season Tennessee knocked off
Kentucky to win the SEC East in a 52-50 game that endured four
overtime sessions. Injuries have hit Kentucky hard this season but
unlike the Vols the Wildcats will be in the postseason. The Wildcats
have lost outright in 23 consecutive meetings so there will be plenty
of motivation here and the Wildcats have had an extra week to
prepare for this game. Tennessee has not had much success
covering at home in recent years and after last week’s win it will be
tough to get another positive effort. KENTUCKY BY 10

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-9) Uab 12:00 PM
Central Florida was out-gained by 111 yards last week but managed
to win and the Knights are a better team than the record indicates
and has now won two in a row. UAB has covered in three of the last
four games and the Blazers average over 130 more yards per game
on offense in this match-up. The UAB pass defense has had a lot of
problems this season but UCF has one of the least efficient passing
games in the nation. Central Florida has played through a much
tougher schedule on the season and the Knights still own impressive
recent numbers at home. UAB stayed close last week by virtue of
turnovers and playing on the road to close the season will be a
challenge. Central Florida has won by fairly convincing margins in
the history of this series. CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 14

OREGON STATE (-3) Oregon 6:00 PM
The Beavers had an incredible rally to win last week and keep the
Rose Bowl dreams alive. This will be a very tough game as the state
rival Ducks are rested and set on redeeming a double-OT loss in
Eugene last season. Oregon owns a dramatically more productive
offense in this match-up but the defensive edge for Oregon State is
equally significant. The injury to OSU RB Rodgers is a concern and
the Beavers will face pressure unlike they have ever known
considering how long it has been since a postseason trip to
Pasadena. Oregon should have won the Civil War game last season
and this is a game the Ducks have been waiting for. Oregon’s
offense will be very tough to slow down and the breaks may not
keep falling the way of the Beavers. Although this is a very tough
home stadium , this rivalry game should be tight and the Ducks have
a legitimate shot at the upset. OREGON BY 3

CLEMSON (NL) South Carolina 11:00 AM
In what was supposed to be a glorious year for the Clemson
program the Tigers are not yet even bowl eligible going into the
season’s final game. Clemson has six wins but two came against
FCS teams so this will be a make or break game and likely an
important game for interim Coach Swinney who still may have a
chance at retaining the job. South Carolina should have a sour taste
after its last loss was a blowout in Gainesville and the Gamecocks
still own impressive defensive numbers on the season. Clemson is
just 2-6 in the last eight games as favorites and little should be read
into the last two wins as Duke lost multiple key players and Virginia
had four turnovers last week. South Carolina lost by two to Clemson
last season but won the last meeting in this stadium. South
Carolina’s offense has been starting to produce prior to the
nightmare game against Florida and the Gamecocks have been the
better team by far this season. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 13

USC (-29) Notre Dame 7:00 PM
After last week’s depressing loss to Syracuse Notre Dame faces a
daunting challenge this week. USC still has realistic BCS
championship hopes although they will need some help and whether
or not they win the Pac-10 title may not be relevant. The USC
defense is allowing just over eight points per game although one of
the worst games of the season for the Trojans came in the last
game. Notre Dame faces long travel and will play as a big underdog
in a series that they have struggled in. The Irish have played a weak
schedule but the defensive numbers are solid and the passing game
can produce if turnovers are avoided. There will be no holding back
from USC but the Trojans simply have not scored that much this
season. If you take out the blowouts against Washington and
Washington State, USC averages just 32 points per game which will
make it tough to cover this spread. There is some value with the
underdog here as the perception of the Irish is at an all-time low but
Notre Dame can play better than expected here. USC BY 24

HAWAII (-27½) Washington State 10:00 PM
Washington State probably wishes they picked a different year to
play the 13-game schedule but the Cougars picked up a nice victory
last week to at least take something away from a brutal year. There
is nothing positive to say about the numbers for WSU but the
Cougars have covered in three consecutive games. Hawaii can
keep its bowl hopes alive with a win this week and the Warriors have
been a pleasant surprise with a much more competitive team than
many expected given all the turnover from last season’s great team.
Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games and the Warriors have
lost just once at home this season, a close game against San Jose
State. Even though Washington State is down this year it will be a
meaningful game for Hawaii with a chance to knock off a Pac-10
team and move to 7-5. HAWAII BY 31

Arkansas State (NL) NORTH TEXAS 1:00 PM
Arkansas State has not lived up to expectations this season after a
very strong start to the year but last week’s win over Florida Atlantic
was an impressive and dominant victory. North Texas has the worst
defensive numbers in the nation and the Mean Green has rarely
been competitive, losing by double-digits in all ten losses. Last
season this was a very close game as North Texas actually had its
most productive rushing game of the year against Arkansas State.
North Texas had a 21-0 lead last season in this match-up in
Jonesboro but Arkansas State rallied for the victory. Arkansas State
is 0-4 S/U and ATS the last four road games and after the big win
this might be a tough spot. ARKANSAS STATE BY 10

Florida Atlantic (NL) Florida International 3:00 PM
The Owls have won five of six meetings in this series and this year’s
game is at a neutral site at Dolphin Stadium. The Sun Belt has
enhanced bowl chances this season with Sun Belt teams getting the
second crack at three bowl games should certain conferences not fill
the spots so the Owls would have a good shot at a bowl game
should they win this game to become bowl eligible. Florida
International has four wins this season and the Panthers have been
a strong ATS team but this game has been a blowout loss each of
the last two years. Florida Atlantic has enjoyed strong numbers as a
favorite with covers in ten of the last 13 games so the Owls can pull
away in this rivalry game. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 13

Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1--Florida over FLORIDA STATE 47-14
1--MEMPHIS over Tulane 41-17
2--TEXAS TECH over Baylor 55-17
3--Georgia Tech (+) over GEORGIA 26-27
3--NEBRASKA over Colorado 55-27
4--Tulsa over MARSHALL 41-20
5--MISSISSIPPI over Mississippi State 37-13
5--HAWAII over Washington State 55-14

NFL KEY RELEASES
2--Baltimore over CINCINNATI 30-10
3--GREEN BAY over Carolina 30-17
4--Kansas City (+) over OAKLAND 20-10
4--SAN DIEGO over Atlanta 27-17
5--Tennessee over DETROIT 30-10

Kelso Sturgeon - Newsletter

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

Saturday, Nov. 29

10 Units - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-29½) 55 over Notre Dame - The truth is nothing can outrank Notre Dame's upset at the hands of a terrible Syracuse team last week but my figures say this one might come close for a variety of reasons. First of all, Notre Dame (6-5) is little more than an average football team and does not have the talent, speed, quickness, focus, tenacity or coaching to stay on the same field with USC (9-1) which has a lockdown defense and is still alive for a chance to play for the national championship. USC will hit the field fired up and ready to beat Notre Dame as badly as is possible. When I say by 55, I may be being conservative.

5 Units - N.C. STATE (+2½) over Miami - N.C. State (5-6) comes into its final game playing its best football and as an underdog in its last three games has knocked off Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina. The Wolf Pack is at the top of its game and is playing at a level that should produce another upset win. Miami (7-4) was crushed at Georgia Tech last week and in that lost showed it was nothing special.

4 Units - CENTRAL FLORIDA (8½) by 14 over UAB - Central Florida (4-7) has been an up-and-down team all season because it is going through a major rebuilding program. It all came together for UCF last week in a 28-21 road upset at Memphis, and that followed a 30-14 upset of Marshall in Huntington. This team is playing good football right now and would like nothing better than to go out a winner before the home folks. UAB (3-8) looks like a sitting duck in this one.

NFL BEST BETS

5 Units - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) by 14 over Atlanta Falcons - Some things are simply not meant to be - and one of those things must be the San Diego Chargers (4-7) in 2008. This was a team that was one of the co-favorites to win the Super Bowl but has instead turned into one of the most snake-bitten teams in recent memory. Last week, the Chargers lost to Indianapolis 23-20 on a last-second field goal. The week before, it was an 11-10 loss at Pittsburgh. The seven Charger losses this season have come by a total of 28 points, or an average of 4.0 points per game. Still, San Diego comes to play and one can expect the Chargers to fire up again for this one against the surprising Atlanta Falcons (7-4). There is no question San Diego has the more talented team and my figures say they will at last get "lucky" against the Falcons, who are led by a rookie quarterback and that is always a hazard on the road.

4 Units - NEW YORK JETS (-7½) by 13 over Denver Broncos - Some magic things are happening for the New York Jets (8-3) since they acquired veteran quarterback Brett Favre, who set a world of records at Green Bay. New York comes into this game after handing the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season, 34-13, and just in case one thinks that road victory was a fluke, please note it was New York's fifth straight win and its seventh in its last eight games. The Jets have become a very good football team under the ability and leadership of Favre and they seem to have almost all the edges in this home game against the Denver Broncos (6-5), the most over-rated team in the NFL. If Denver could not muster any offense or defense in last week's 31-10 home loss to the hapless Oakland Raiders, why should one think they can do much against a dramatically better New York team? My money says they can't and won't as the Jets win their sixth in a row and their eight in their last nine games.

3 Units - BUFFALO BILLS (-7) by 13 over San Francisco 49ers - Just call this a best bet play made on the basis of that old tried-and-true West Coast to East Coast rule. For the record, 11 times this season teams from the Pacific time zone have flown east to compete in the Eastern time zone and 11 times they have met defeat. That's 0-11, my friend, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome here. San Francisco (3-8) even has the added disadvantage of traveling cross country for the second straight weekend. Last week they were in Dallas and lost 35-22. Now they face the double whammy of going all the way and history says it will cost them the game. Buffalo (6-5) turned it all loose against a bad Kansas City team and won 54-31. If the Bills can play anywhere remotely as well as that this week, they should own the 49ers - much improved but
simply in a bad spot.

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Thursday, November 27th
TEXAS over Texas A&M by 31

Friday, November 28th

West Virginia over PITTSBURGH by 7
MIAMI OHIO over Ohio U by 1
OLE MISS over Mississippi St by 7
Akron over Temple by 2
Utep over EAST CAROLINA by 1
C Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 14
BUFFALO over Kent St by 1

3* BEST BET
Lsu over ARKANSAS by 14

TOLEDO over Bowling Green by 3

5* BEST BET
NEBRASKA over Colorado by 28

BOISE ST over Fresno St by 13
ARIZONA ST over Ucla by 11

Saturday, November 29th

Miami Fla over NC STATE by 6
WAKE FOREST over Vanderbilt by 3
BOSTON COLLEGE over Maryland by 3
VA TECH over Virginia by 6
N Carolina over DUKE by 4
CINCINNATI over Syracuse by 25
TEXAS TECH over Baylor by 14
MEMPHIS over Tulane by 16
Nevada over LA TECH by 6
Houston over RICE by 1
UTAH ST over New Mexico St by 6
Southern Miss over SMU by 17
MISSOURI over Kansas by 10
Oklahoma over OKLAHOMA ST by 3
GEORGIA over Ga Tech by 5
Tulsa over MARSHALL by 13
ALABAMA over Auburn by 7
Florida over FLORIDA ST by 8
TENNESSEE over Kentucky by 1
C FLORIDA over Uab by 4

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
Oregon over OREGON ST by 6

4* BEST BET
South Carolina over CLEMSON by 10

USC over Notre Dame by 25
HAWAII over Washington St by 31

ADDED GAMES
Arkansas St over N TEXAS by 24
Florida Atlantic over Florida Int’l by 8

NFL Playbook

Thursday, November 27th

5* BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over Arizona by 14

Tennessee over DETROIT by 10
DALLAS over Seattle by 13

Sunday, November 30th

4* BEST BET
Denver over NY JETS by 6

3* BEST BET
WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 7

BUFFALO over San Francisco by 7
TAMPA BAY over New Orleans by 3
Carolina over GREEN BAY by 3
Miami over ST. LOUIS by 3
Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 1
Indianapolis over CLEVELAND by 3
SAN DIEGO over Atlanta by 1
Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND by 3
OAKLAND over Kansas City by 1
MINNESOTA over Chicago by 7

Monday, December 1st
HOUSTON over Jacksonville by 6

Gold Sheet CFL

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 21 over Eastern Michigan (Friday)
UCLA by 1 over Arizona State (Friday)

OKLAHOMA by 19 over Oklahoma State
GEORGIA TECH by 1 over Georgia

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27
*TEXAS 51 - Texas A&M 13—Texas can’t wait for this double-revenge date
vs. the defenseless Aggies (113th in defense). Longhorns need a big, fat win
to lock up at least a piece of the Big XII South and to preserve their high status
in the eyes of the BCS beholders. UT has so much liked the work of new
defensive coordinator Will Muschamp that he’s been signed as the HC in
waiting. Colt McCoy (30 TDs, only 7 ints.) played hurt vs. A&M two years ago;
now he’s at the peak of his game. Unbalanced A&M offense (110th in rushing)
is -9 in TOs. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-TEX. A&M 38-Texas 30...A.27-18 A.48/171 U.30/128 A.25/38/2/362 U.17/32/1/229 A.0 U.2)
(07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29...SR: Texas 73-36-5)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28
West Virginia 26 - PITTSBURGH 17—Add a MAJOR revenge angle to
latest edition of already-heated “Backyard Brawl,” as seething West Virginia
was one win away from a berth in LY’s BCS championship game when rival Pitt
pulled shocking upset at Morgantown. While Panthers frequently a feisty dog,
thanks to their quick defense and running of star soph RB McCoy (1125 YR &
18 TDs), most of the big-play potential in this game lies with visiting
Mountaineers & sr. QB Pat White, a record-setting rusher who’s fired 8 TDP in
last 4 games. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Pitt 13-W. VA. 9...P.15-12 P.52/158 W.41/104 W.9/16/0/79 P.10/19/2/67 P.0 W.3)
(07-Pitt +28' 13-9 06-Wva -10' 45-27 05-WVA -14 45-13...SR: Pittsburgh 60-37-3)

Ohio 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 27—Find it very difficult to lay points with Miami-
Ohio side that’s lost 9 of last 10 as a favorite and has dropped last 4 games this
season by an average of 24 ppg. The RedHawk defense last week allowed
Toledo RB Morgan Williams 330 YR (!) and yielded 6 TDs on the ground, and
the Miami offense is one of the least productive in the country (111th in scoring).
Meanwhile, Ohio U. showed it still has a pulse in rousing 49-42 win against
Akron behind QB Boo Jackson’s 5 TD passes. Both teams will play with pride
in rivalry match, but Bobcats (despite lengthy injury list) own second-best
defense in the MAC. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-OHIO 38-Miami 29...M.28-16 M.41/132 O.38/81 M.22/45/2/247 O.9/18/0/118 O.1 M.0)
(07-OHIO -1 38-29 06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-31-2)

MISSISSIPPI 30 - Mississippi State 10—While both squads snapped
prolonged series losing streaks week ago, prefer soaring Ole Miss, which has
inside track to 2nd-place SEC West finish and possible Cotton Bowl bid. MSU’s
bread-and-butter ground attack (RB Dixon had career high 179 YR vs.
Arkansas) exploited SEC’s worst rush defense week ago. But previouslymoribund
Bulldog offense goes back into hibernation vs. Rebels stout front 7
(meager 97 ypg rushing; 2.9 ypc; LSU just 39 YR). Ole Miss’ defense-reading
QB Snead (19 TDP; 309 YP vs. LSU) cracks (no pun intended) Bulldog 2ndary
(only 7 ints.) in “Egg Bowl.” CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-MISS. ST. 17-Miss. 14...U.21-10 U.50/204 S.25/81 S.15/36/1/192 U.10/30/1/115 S.1 U.1)
(07-MSU -6 17-14 06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14...SR: Mississippi 59-39-6)

Akron 42 - TEMPLE 38—A pair of disintegrating defenses face off, as
Akron has allowed 37 ppg and has gone “over” last 6, while Temple has yielded
42 ppg in last 3 (all “over”). Owl QB Adam DiMichele had 370 YP & threw for 6
TDs last week against E. Michigan, and he’s thrown for 13 scores with just 1 int.
since returning from injury. However, have to be impressed by Akron offensive
combo of QB Chris Jaquemain (20 TDP, ten 200-yard passing games in ‘08)
and RB Dennis Kennedy (175 ypg rushing & 14 TDs last 5 games). Revengeseeking
Zips capable of mild upset.
(07-Temple 24-AKRON 20...T.23-15 A.37/152 T.39/136 T.23/34/2/242 A.12/21/2/145 T.0 A.0)
(07-Temple +11' 24-20...SR: Temple 10-7)

Utep 35 - EAST CAROLINA 33—Injury-ravaged East Carolina has gone from
solid earner to vexing money-burner in 2008, as Pirates have dropped 8 of their last
9 spread decisions. UTEP needs one more win to be eligible for postseason
bid. Red-hot QB Vittatoe has fired 29 TDP vs. just 3 ints. in last 8 games,
and Miners 11-4-1 their last 16 as visiting dog for wily old mentor Mike Price.
(07-Ecu 45-UTEP 42 (OT)...U.31-24 E.32/208 U.37/133 U.40/57/1/456 E.19/34/4/299 E.0 U.2)
(07-East Carolina +3 45-42 (OT)...SR: East Carolina 1-0)

***Central Michigan 41 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 20—Despite
disappointing result against Ball State, expect a top quality effort from classy
Central Michigan and do-everything QB Dan LeFevour. Chippewas will be out
to avenge last season’s upset loss to EMU, and a convincing victory would go
a long way to securing a bowl bid. LeFevour’s 420 yds. of total offense against
Ball State was the MAC MVP’s best production of the season and 4th-best of his
career. CMU owns an extremely dangerous weapon in WR Antonio Brown (75
catches; 2nd in nation in punt returns), and Eastern is 8-16 last 24 vs. spread.
(07-E. Mich. 48-C. MICH. 45...E.27-25 C.25/231 E.49/214 C.26/37/1/246 E.26/36/1/227 E.0 C.1)
(07-Emu +14 48-45 06-Cmu -4' 24-17 (OT) 05-Emu +5' 23-20 (OT)...SR: CMU 53-26-6)

BUFFALO 41 - Kent State 27—Buffalo has clinched its spot in the MAC
Championship game next Friday night in Detroit, but still favor Turner Gill’s
Bulls. Buffalo has won 6 straight, covering last 4, and QB Drew Willy has 9 TD
passes and just 1 int. in the last 5. Bull RB Starks (121 ypg rushing) didn’t get
his usual amount of touches, as Buffalo had to rally from a 21-0 deficit at
Bowling Green, but Starks still managed a pair of TDs. Kent (3-7 vs. spread)
has yielded 42 ppg in last 3, and shoddy defending is a major factor in Golden
Flashes going “over” 8-2 in ’08. (Bulls “over” 8-3.)
(07-Buf. 30-KENT ST. 23 (OT)...21-21 K.49/217 B.26/49 B.35/45/0/335 K.12/22/0/184 B.0 K.0)
(07-Buf. +1' 30-23 (OT) 06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6...SR: EVEN 8-8)

Lsu 24 - ARKANSAS 23—Arkansas eliminated from bowl contention
following come-from-ahead 31-28 loss at Mississippi State, but still prefer to
buck struggling, overrated LSU, a bankroll-depleting 3-15-1 vs. spread last 19
reg.-season games. Hogs’ battle-tested sr. QB C. Dick (expected to return after
missing last week with concussion) figures to outperform Tigers green, true
frosh QB Jefferson, who’ll probably get the nod for injured Lee (see Special
Ticker). LSU 2ndary waaayyy down from LY’s ball-hawking unit (21 ints. LY;
SEC-worst 6 TY), and Tigers red-zone defense dead last in conference.
Bounce-back game for Arkansas’ versatile RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 141 allpurpose
yds. pg) after season-low 60 YR last week. (at Little Rock, AR) TV—CBS
(07-Ark. 50-LSU 48 (OT)...L.25-21 A.53/385 L.48/204 L.22/47/0/209 A.13/24/0/128 A.1 L.0)
(07-Ark. +13 50-48 (OT) 06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17...SR: LSU 34-18-2)

TOLEDO 35 - Bowling Green 31—Toledo rallied for one of its best efforts
of the season in crushing Miami-Ohio 42-14 last week, as frosh RB Morgan
Williams exploded for 330 YR and 3 scores. That game, coincidentally, was the
first home contest since well-liked Rocket HC Tom Amstutz announced he’d
resign at season’s end. Bowling Green can become bowl-eligible with a win, but
that might not mean anything considering Falcons are 5th or 6th-best in a
conference that’s slotted for no more than 3 or 4 bowl bids. BG collapse last
week at home against Buffalo has to take something out of Falcs, and expect
an emotional effort from Rockets in “send-off” game for Toledo Tom.
(07-B. GREEN 37-Toledo 10...B.27-18 B.44/201 T.28/66 T.21/40/3/256 B.22/36/0/242 B.1 T.1)
(07-BGU -6' 37-10 06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT)...SR: Bowling Green 37-31-4)

NEBRASKA 38 - Colorado 16—The defenseless, chemistry-poor
Cornhuskers of ’07 gave up a humiliating 65 points LY in Boulder, with Bill
Callahan fired the next day. Now, the much-tougher, defensive-minded Bo Pelini
is drawing praise for reviving NU pride. After a long wait, Pelini has re-established
the Husker Blackshirt tradition for defensive standouts, and the team
responded next game by allowing only 247 yards at Kansas State, boosting
sack total to 9 last two games. CU (5-6) fighting for a bowl shot, but depleted
offense especially challenged on the road (Buffs 0-4 vs. spread as a visitor TY).
REG TV—ABC
(07-COLO. 65-Neb. 51...N.28-26 C.52/277 N.20/126 N.31/58/3/484 C.17/29/0/241 C.0 N.0)
(07-COLO. -4 65-51 06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3...SR: Nebraska 46-18-2)

*BOISE STATE 43 - Fresno State 17—It’s certainly not Boise’s fault this
matchup isn’t the WAC showdown many anticipated in early September. And
Fresno hasn’t offered much better value to its backers than the Dow Jones,
dropping 9 of its last 10 spread decisions. But would be wary of pointspread
inflation, as Bulldogs did play best overall game in two months last Friday at San
Jose, and Broncos have covered just 1 of 4 as blue carpet chalk TY. TV—ESPN2
(07-Boise St. 34-FRES. ST. 21...B.21-15 B.43/282 F.26/89 F.21/39/1/263 B.18/29/0/158 B.0 F.0)
(07-Bsu -3 34-21 06-BSU -22' 45-21 05-FSU -9 27-7...SR: Boise State 6-4)

***Ucla 24 - ARIZONA STATE 23—Not sure about rumors that these
two have contacted Tony Robbins to convince respective troops that a bowl
invitation could still be in the cards (both need wins in last two to get eligible).
But a bit more reluctant to lay points with constantly-misfiring ASU bunch that
has lacked continuity on OL to establish infantry and thus take pressure off
banged-up QB Carpenter. Norm Chow’s jerry-rigged UCLA “O” finally gaining
some traction with its own ground game. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-Ariz. St. 24-UCLA 20...A.20-14 A.45/152 U.33/119 A.16/31/0/200 U.14/29/1/181 A.2 U.1)
(07-Asu -7 24-20 06-Ucla +5 24-12 05-UCLA -3' 45-35...SR: UCLA 15-8-1)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 - Miami-Florida 19—Eager to support
howling Wolfpack, who have covered 8 of their last 9. Not just that, but recent
3-game win streak has N.C. State just one victory from bowl eligibility. Count on
composed RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (14 TDP & no ints. in his last 7 games!) to
fire host past a talented but young Miami squad that’s still a work in progress.
(07-N. Car. St. 19-MIAMI 16 (OT)...16-16 M.60/314 N.35/110 N.19/40/0/207 M.1/14/3/84 N.0 M.0)
(07-North Carolina State +11 19-16 (OT)...SR: Miami-Florida 4-2)

*Vanderbilt 16 - WAKE FOREST 14—Offensively, there are not many
discernible edges in this matchup, as both sputtering attacks rank among the
most feckless in the country. Lean to taking points with visiting Vandy, which
has been a little more productive on ground than Wake. No surprise if ballhawking
Deacons (nation-leading 32 “takeaways”) force enough turnovers to
prevail, however. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-W. For. 31-VANDY 17...V.20-16 W.43/150 V.28/16 V.32/58/2/333 W.21/31/1/146 W.2 V.3)
(07-Wfu -1 31-17 05-Vandy +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-4)

BOSTON COLLEGE 21 - Maryland 20—Eagles can clinch trip to ACC title
game with a victory, and swarming BC defense (31 takeaways, only 270 ypg) is
most dominant platoon on field. But with host down to its backup QB (see
Special Ticker), might be good spot to grab points with flaky Maryland squad
that’s won straight up in its last 6 games vs. ranked foes!
(07-MARY. 42-Bos. Col. 35...B.27-20 M.40/135 B.27/45 B.33/56/2/421 M.21/27/0/337 M.0 B.0)
(07-MARY. +6' 42-35 06-BC -7' 38-16 05-Bc -2 31-16...SR: Boston College 3-2)

VIRGINIA TECH 19 - Virginia 17—A Virginia Tech win sends Hokies to
ACC championship game for 3rd time in last 4 seasons, while Cavaliers need
a victory just to be eligible for minor bowl bid. Tech has dominated rivalry in
recent seasons, capturing 8 of last 9 meetings (7-2 vs. spread). Still, not a bad
fundamental matchup for UVa defense, which has the veteran, good-sized LBs
(3 senior starters) necessary to contain a run-oriented Hokie attack that rarely
does substantial damage in air.
(07-Va. Tech 33-VA. 21...T.20-15 T.46/131 U.36/97 T.17/26/1/299 U.17/28/1/144 T.1 U.1)
(07-Tech -3' 33-21 06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14...SR: Virginia Tech 47-37-5)

North Carolina 26 - DUKE 23—Even though starting QB Lewis (check
status; sat out last week with sore foot) among the key injuries Duke has
absorbed over last month, highly-regarded new HC Cutcliffe still has Blue
Devils battling hard down stretch. That’s probably enough reason to not lay
substantial points with fading North Carolina, which appears to have peaked a
little too early.
(07-N. CAR. 20-Duke 14 (OT)...D.23-14 N.32/174 D.48/145 D.21/31/0/215 N.11/24/2/75 N.0 D.1)
(07-UNC -14 20-14 (OT) 06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21...SR: North Carolina 55-35-4)

CINCINNATI 41 - Syracuse 10—Credit ‘Cuse for giving lame-duck HC Greg
Robinson a feel-good win on his way out the door. But vulnerable Orange could
be ripe for plucking after last week’s satisfying victory at Notre Dame, especially
with defensively-staunch Cincinnati trying to wrap up Big East title. Bearcats (7-
2 last 9 as home chalk) likely to stretch margin late if hungry backup QB sr.
Grutza gets some snaps.
(07-Cincy 52-SYR. 31...C.24-20 C.32/113 S.34/M15 C.29/43/0/431 S.31/51/0/428 C.1 S.1)
(07-Cincy -20' 52-31 06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16...SR: EVEN 4-4)

TEXAS TECH 48 - Baylor 21—Despite their depressing blowout last week
in Norman, Red Raiders must win to keep their slight title hopes alive.
Fortunately for TT, Baylor doesn’t have the quality pass rushers Oklahoma did,
so Bears likely to find themselves in a scoring contest with Harrell & Co.
Raiders have won 8 straight in series, covering 7. While Baylor greatly
improved under Art Briles, dual-threat frosh QB Griffin has completed only 48%
on road for only 144 ypg. Raider OL allowed only 5 sacks TY prior to OU game.
(07-Tex. Tech 38-BAY. 7...T.29-21 B.35/91 T.17/73 T.44/59/0/490 B.25/47/1/191 T.1 B.1)
(07-Tech -20 38-7 06-TECH -17 55-21 05-Tech -12 28-0...SR: Tex. Tech 33-32-1)

MEMPHIS 42 - Tulane 20—Absolutely zero interest in backing shorthanded
Tulane side that’s dropped its last 7 games by an average score of 41-
15. Memphis’ previously-injured top QB Arkelon Hall (15 of 35; 42 YR) knocked
some of the rust off in last week’s home loss to UCF, and Tigers need 1 more
win to be bowl eligible. Lay it.
(07-Memphis 28-TULANE 27...T.25-17 T.58/350 M.25/59 M.27/40/1/379 T.8/16/1/105 M.1 T.1)
(07-Memphis +2 28-27...SR: Memphis 15-11-1)

Nevada 36 - LOUISIANA TECH 27—Bowl implications, as available spots
for WAC could get tight if Boise doesn’t land BCS at-large berth. Preference,
then, for the superior weaponry of Chris Ault’s Nevada Pistol, which leads
nation in rushing and owns the component most likely to alter outcome, longlegged
QB Kaepernick. Fundamentals also not bad for Wolf Pack “D” that’s
adept at stuffing run, especially with dinking Tech QB Jenkins yet to
demonstrate consistent downfield accuracy.
(07-NEVADA 49-La. Tech 10...N.29-12 N.55/237 L.33/55 N.18/29/0/404 L.12/29/0/173 N.1 L.3)
(07-NEVADA -7' 49-10 06-Nevada -18 42-0 05-NEVADA -2' 37-27...SR: EVEN 4-4)

RICE 44 - Houston 42—The college football equivalent of the long ago Ron
Lyle-George Foreman heavyweight slugfest? Perhaps, considering the 746
yards Houston piled on crosstown rival Rice’s “D” in ‘07, not to mention the 104
total points scored in LY’s meeting. Owls’ offensive competence, however,
makes any available points look enticing, especially with record-breaking QB
Clement (now C-USA’s all-time TD leader) making last home appearance, and
Coug “D” susceptible due to its own leaks.
(07-HOU. 56-Rice 48...H.28-23 H.45/274 R.34/86 H.26/36/2/474 R.24/44/1/355 H.3 R.1)
(07-HOU. -22' 56-48 06-Hou. -14' 31-30 05-HOU. -15' 35-18...SR: Houston 25-9)

UTAH STATE 41 - New Mexico State 30—Will USU circle the wagons for
lame-duck HC Brent Guy, who got the Ty Willingham-Phil Fulmer-Greg Robinson
news last week from AD Scott Barnes? And is Hal Mumme about to meet the same
fate at NMSU? While pondering those intangibles, note Utags (3-0-1 vs. line last
4) displaying a bit more bite down stretch, thanks to multi-dimensional QB Borel,
and Guy’s troops covered last 4 at Romney Stadium.
(07-Utah St. 35-NMSU 17...N.23-19 U.45/166 N.22/88 N.42/58/2/367 U.14/20/0/189 U.1 N.0)
(07-Usu +8 35-17 06-Nms -6' 42-20 05-Usu -2' 24-21...SR: Utah State 26-6)

Southern Miss 37 - SMU 16—C-USA sources report SMU’s June Jones
wrote off ‘08 campaign at midseason, instead beginning full-bore rebuilding
mode while taking a long look at numerous frosh. Meanwhile, USM counterpart
Fedora has seen his Golden Eagles make unlikely late-season push for bowl
eligibility, as formerly-maligned “D” has allowed mere 7.7 ppg in recent 3-game
win streak. Ponies’ Red Gun can only dream of Golden Eagles’ balance (RB
Fletcher 1176 YR, QB Davis 2640 YP).
(07-S. MISS 28-Smu 7...Me.26-25 Mi.40/209 Me.38/170 Mi.18/27/1/206 Me.19/31/2/191 Mi.0 Me.2)
(07-SOUTHERN MISS -9 28-7...SR: Southern Miss 1-0)

Missouri 40 - Kansas 22—Selection complicated by fact Mizzou has
already clinched the South. But the bitter nature of this rivalry still likely to
inspire the best from the Tigers. MU’s defense (23 ppg) has improved, but not
as much as Tiger coaches predicted. Still, KU’s ground game is inconsistent,
and Jayhawk defense (29 ppg) misses d.c. Bill Young (now at Miami), not to
mention the tight coverage of CB Aqib Talib (NFL) and much of a pass rush. (at
Kansas City, MO)
(07-Mo. 36-Kansas 28...M.29-22 M.43/151 K.22/42 M.41/50/0/368 K.28/49/2/349 M.0 K.0)
(07-Mo. +2 36-28 at KC 06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KAN. +5 13-3...SR: Missouri 54-53-9)

Oklahoma 45 - OKLAHOMA STATE 26—OU scoring machine visits
Stillwater, where Boone Pickens’ bucks, Mike Gundy’s recruiting, Zac
Robinson’s decision-making, and Dez Bryant’s big plays (16 TDC) have
upgraded the OSU program to such a level (9-2 SU, 8-2 vs. spread TY) that it
is a perceived threat to Sooners’ BCS dreams. The problem is the still-building
Cowboy defense can’t cope with the improving (!) OU no-huddle offense. With
DeMarco Murray now cutting freely, many future NFL players in its OL, and its
near faultless pocket passer (Sam Bradford 42 TDs, 6 ints.; rarely played an
entire game TY), Sooner offense will run up another big number against rival
Cowboys. TV—ABC
(07-OKLA. 49-Okla. St. 17...U.27-17 U.56/307 S.39/195 U.13/17/1/180 S.9/23/0/104 U.0 S.1)
(07-OKLA. -13' 49-17 06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14...SR: Oklahoma 79-15-7)

Georgia Tech 24 - GEORGIA 23—Since highly-combative GT has
played just one bad Q of football all season (outscored 21-7 in 4th Q at UNC;
other two losses by 3 & 7 pts.), compelled to “take” with jacked-up Yellow
Jackets, eager to snap aggravating 7-game series losing streak. UGA’s QB
Stafford makes few downfield plays vs. athletic Tech stop unit (19 ppg) that has
picked off 14 passes and applies steady DL pressure. Yellow Jackets nearly
had three 100-yd. rushers in dominating 41-23 victory vs. Miami (most rushing
yds. Hurricanes allowed since 1944!). And GT’s wiley 1st-year HC Paul Johnson
has thrived in road dog role (13-3 since ‘03). Upset possible! TV—CBS
(07-Ga. 31-GA. TECH 17...T.22-20 U.39/218 T.39/136 U.14/29/0/214 T.12/32/2/179 U.1 T.1)
(07-Uga -3' 31-17 06-UGA -2' 15-12 05-Uga -4 14-7...SR: Georgia 59-36-5)

Tulsa 43 - MARSHALL 25—Difficult to imagine Marshall rallying at this
stage, as mistake-filled 3-game losing streak has scuttled any bowl hopes,
putting HC Snyder’s already-tenuous job status in further jeopardy. Meanwhile,
blowout win over Tulane suggests all well again at Tulsa after recent losing
streak ended longshot UT’s BCS hopes. Golden Hurricane QB David
Johnson’s arm well-rested (only 13 passes last week) after RB Tarrion Adams’
323 YR keyed 489-yard (!) ground assault vs. Green Wave.
(07-TULSA 38-Marshall 31...T.31-20 T.42/193 M.38/184 T.24/39/0/385 M.21/37/0/260 T.1 M.0)
(07-TULSA -14 38-31...SR: Tulsa 1-0)

ALABAMA 30 - Auburn 10—While the old cliche goes, “You can throw out
the records when these two meet,” we prefer to side with top-ranked Bama’s
fundamental edges in this “Iron Bowl” matchup. Auburn’s pedestrian, identityless
attack (13 ppg vs. SEC foes), led by unfinished soph QB Burns, unlikely to
regularly move pigskin vs. ferocious Tide defense (12.5 ppg, 2.8 ypc). On other
side, Bama’s steady, mistake-free sr. QB Wilson (59%, just 5 ints.), productive
RBs Coffee (6.1 ypc, 8 TDs) & Ingram (5.5 ypc, 9 TDs) and frosh phenom WR
J. Jones (43 grabs, 16-yd. avg.) make muchos more big plays vs. overtaxed
Tiger defense. Bama’s clever mentor Saban perfect 3-0 vs. spread in revenge
games TY, and Bama Nation considers this its No. 1 payback after six straight
losses to arch-rival! TV—CBS
(07-AUB. 17-Ala. 10...Au.17-15 Au.41/165 Al.36/112 Au.12/22/1/117 Al.12/26/1/113 Au.0 Al.0)
(07-AUB. -6 17-10 06-Aub. -3 22-15 05-AUB. -7 28-18...SR: Alabama 38-33-1)

Florida 43 - FLORIDA STATE 20—Points may appear inviting, if only
because it’s been decades since Florida State has been this big an underdog
at Tallahassee. Current reality, however, finds Florida at 9-1 vs. spread TY and
holding substantial fundamental edges all over the field against Seminoles.
With trip to BCS championship game just a couple of wins away, Gator juggernaut
(outscored last 7 foes 369-82!) keeps on rolling against outgunned FSU.
(07-FLA. 45-Fla. St. 12...U.29-17 U.38/279 S.25/99 U.19/28/0/262 S.20/37/0/188 U.0 S.0)
(07-FLA. -14 45-12 06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7...SR: Florida 31-19-2)

*Kentucky 17 - TENNESSEE 16—Though UT has remained “intoxicated”
after winning the former “Beer Barrel” rivalry for 23 straight years, believe
rested, bowl-eligible UK able to finally take a swig vs. beatable Vols, who
avoided school-worst 8 losses in unimpressive 20-10 win at Vandy (UT had just
243 yds., scored TD on int. return). If Wildcats fast-emerging, mobile, frosh QB
Cobb (159 YR last two games) keeps mistakes to a minimum vs. tenacious Vol
defense, UK ekes out win vs. UT sans an SEC-caliber triggerman (21 YP vs.
‘Dores). Swan song for Fulmer, who is just 1-11-1 as SEC chalk in Knoxville
since ‘04. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-Tenn. 52-KY. 50 (OT)...K.37-24 K.48/134 T.37/123 K.39/62/2/430 T.28/45/3/397 T.0 K.1)
(07-Tenn. +2' 52-50 (OT) 06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8...SR: Tennessee 71-23-9)

UCF 20 - Uab 17—Since UAB defense finally stopped blowing assignments
in 17-13 loss vs. ECU (Blazers allowed just 278 yds. & had 5 takeaways), lean
to Blazers, with the superior QB in dual-threat Webb. Though UCF’s previouslystruggling
frosh QB Calabrese (22 for 59 last 3 weeks) tossed 2 TDP at
Memphis, Knights won’t easily pull away from UAB squad 5-2 last 7 as an
underdog. UCF’s containable attack (only 18 ppg TY; 38 LY) has nobody
resembling departed RB K. Smith (320 YR in ‘07 meeting).
(07-Ucf 45-UAB 31...C.24-22 C.52/402 A.35/168 A.20/41/2/175 C.12/20/1/104 C.0 A.0)
(07-Ucf -20' 45-31 06-UCF -3 31-22 05-Ucf +7' 27-21...SR: UCF 5-0)

*OREGON STATE 31 - Oregon 23—Even as key injuries mount (check
status of QB Moevao & frosh RB sensation Quizz Rodgers) with first Rose Bowl
trip since Tommy Prothro’s 1964 squad within its grasp, don’t think OSU will slip
up now. Hot Beavs (won last 6 SU, 8-1 vs. spread last 9) have proven a bit more
resilient than Civil War rival Oregon, as OSU doesn’t lose much with QB
Canfield or Quizz’ brother James assuming larger offensive roles. Mike
Bellotti’s QBs have tended to be a bit erratic, and quick-footed Beav “D” can slow
Ducks potent spread just enough to get to Pasadena.
(07-Ore. St. 38-ORE. 31 (OT)...S.23-21 S.44/214 U.57/195 S.20/37/1/245 U.13/28/1/144 S.2 U.0)
(07-Osu +1 38-31 (OT) 06-OSU -3 30-28 05-ORE. -13' 56-14...SR: Oregon 55-46-10)

*South Carolina 17 - CLEMSON 14—Palmetto State scouts insist Clemson
HC Tommy Bowden would have been fired before TY if not for his dominance of
despised rival USC. Tigers going for their 6th win in last 7 meetings against the
Cocks, which would make Clemson bowl eligible (and perhaps earn interim mentor
Swinney the regular job). Sub-par Tiger OL figures to have its hands full with
tenacious USC front 7, however, and last 3 in series decided by total of just 9 points!
(07-Clem. 23-S. CAR. 21...C.26-17 C.46/214 S.21/80 S.18/31/2/284 C.28/39/1/229 C.0 S.1)
(07-Clem. -3 23-21 06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9...SR: Clemson 64-37-2)

*SOUTHERN CAL 36 - Notre Dame 3—Charlie Weis’ admonishments to his
roster in wake of Syracuse debacle can’t alter the one undeniable fact about this
year’s Notre Dame—the Irish just aren’t that good. And though we still have
some reservations about QB Sanchez and the sometimes-erratic SC attack,
expect Trojan “O” to have plenty of opportunities after the many three-and-outs Pete
Carroll’s voracious defense forces vs. QB Clausen & misfiring Irish. TV—ABC
(07-S. Cal 38-N. DAME 0...S.24-10 S.36/227 N.30/48 S.21/38/0/235 N.17/33/1/117 S.1 N.2)
(07-Usc -17' 38-0 06-USC -8' 44-24 05-Usc -12 34-31...SR: Notre Dame 42-32-5)

*HAWAII 48 - Washington State 16—Since Wazzu might not need a plane
to fly to Honolulu after dramatic Apple Cup triumph, Cougs could
understandably be in vacation mode. But win over woeful U-Dub not much
evidence that WSU’s season-long issues on both “O” and “D” anywhere near
solved. Hawaii hungry for one more win to make it bowl eligible (likely for its
hometown Sheraton Bowl), and HC McMackin’s QB roulette wheel has landed
on an winner in juco Alexander (5 TDP, 0 ints. last 2 wins).
(DNP...SR: Washington State 2-1)

ADDED GAMES
Arkansas State 42 - NORTH TEXAS 14—Here’s an eye-catching
stat...North Texas is 1-19 vs. the points getting more than 18 since early 2002.
Arkansas State still alive for Sun Belt title and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl,
and Red Wolves’ running attack (16th in the country; 5.3 ypc), led by RB Reggie
Arnold & QB Corey Leonard, matches up favorably against the not-so-Mean
Green defense that ranks as the worst in the nation, allowing 49 ppg & 491 ypg.
(07-ARK. ST. 31-N. Tex. 27...A.29-23 N.43/221 A.31/167 A.26/53/2/313 N.22/30/1/160 A.0 N.1)
(07-ASU -15 31-27 06-ASU -10 29-10 05-Asu -2' 31-24...SR: Arkansas State 9-8)

Florida Intl. 27 - Fla. Atlantic 25—After landing plenty of haymakers on one
another in recent meetings (closest final margin 31 points!), its unlikely these
local rivals escape the gravity pull of the other in local Broward vs. Dade County
grudge match. But season-long improvement on “D” and STs suggests Golden
Panthers worth a look, especially with frosh WR Hilton (25 yp catch!) emerging
as legit homerun threat for cool FIU QB McCall. (at Dolphin Stadium)
(07-Fla. Atl. 55-Fla. Intl. 23...I.24-23 A.30/228 I.34/113 A.22/32/1/343 I.29/49/1/264 A.0 I.0)
(07-Fau -11 55-23 at Dolphin Stad. 06-Fau -4 31-0 at DS 05-FIU -1' 52-6...SR: FAU 5-1)

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week

VANDERBILT over Wake Forest...Vandy 15-3 vs. line last 18 as road dog,
and Dores have covered last 5 as non-SEC visitor. Meanwhile, Wake just 5-16
vs. number its last 21 as Winston-Salem chalk.
This is only one of the featured Technical Plays of the Week in this week’s
edition of The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Tech Plays off solid 4-1 week!

Gold Sheet NFL
KEY RELEASES

TENNESSEE by 21 over Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS by 14 over Cleveland
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Buffalo game

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after
its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.
Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976
Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four
ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host
unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed
until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s
worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS
(04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)
DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back
after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their
troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they
are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team
at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,
even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX
(06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)
NFL ANALYSIS

*Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very
well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.
Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short
rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating
manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,
and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of
enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it
“going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on
defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30

NY JETS 31 - Denver 20—Broncs 3-2 vs. the spread on the road TY,
including victories at Cleveland & Atlanta in last two excursions. Nonetheless,
the fear exists that Thomas Jones’ running (950 YR) could dominate the Denver
rush defense (29th thru first 10 games), splitting it wide open for super-quick
Leon Washington and tough-to-cover rookie TE Dustin Keller (26 recs. last 5
games), who’s quickly becoming a Favre favorite. Thanks largely to DT Kris
Jenkins drawing double teams, Jets (four straight covers) among the leaders in
sacks. Bronco defense has only four ints. all year!

OVER THE TOTAL BUFFALO 31 - San Francisco 21—Bills got back on track in
way in last week’s 54-31 win at K.C., with Trent Edwards (24 of
32, 2 TDs) passing with authority. And rookie CB/KR Leodis McKelvin supplied
needed relief to a banged-up secondary. This is a big game for Edwards and RB
Marshawn Lynch (Stanford & Cal, respectively), both northern California
natives. Niners 4-0 “over” the total since Mike Singletary took over.
(04-Buffalo -11 41-7...SR: Buffalo 5-4)

TAMPA BAY 28 - New Orleans 20—No reason to overreact to RB Earnest
Graham’s ankle injury, as Warrick Dunn (90 YR last week at Detroit) and return
of Cadillac Williams (16 attempts) give Bucs plenty of options. A bit more
concerned about personnel situation for N.O., with possible suspensions
looming, further hurting depth already tested by injuries in secondary (top CBs
McKenzie & Porter gone). Drew Brees no mystery to Monte Kiffin’s sticky
“Tampa Two” schemes; playoff-seeking Bucs on 5-1 SU run since Jeff Garcia
re-assumed QB duties in mid-October.
(08-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 20...T.18-16 T.20/146 N.27/101 N.23/32/1/337 T.24/41/1/206 N.0 T.0)
(07-T. BAY 31-N. Orl. 14...N.19-14 N.26/99 T.32/87 N.26/44/1/244 T.10/16/0/243 T.0 N.1)
(07-T. Bay 27-N. ORL. 23...T.24-13 T.26/172 N.21/84 T.29/37/1/294 N.17/23/0/162 T.0 N.1)
(08-N. ORL. -3 24-20; 07-T. BAY +4' 31-14, T. Bay +3' 27-23...SR: New Orleans 20-13)

Carolina 24 - GREEN BAY 23—Packers were hot (five straight covers) going
into their Monday nighter at New Orleans. But G.B. could have its hands full vs. the tough-running Panthers, who are able to repeatedly strike the Packers where it is most vulnerable—vs. the run. Carolina had allowed the fewest points in the
NFC prior to last week’s loss in Atlanta, and the Panthers have usually been one
of the league’s top road dogs
(21-10-2 last 33). G.B. “over” 20-8 at home.
(07-G. BAY 31-Car. 17...C.21-18 C.29/131 G.27/103 C.19/37/2/251 G.22/30/0/214 G.0 C.1)
(07-GREEN BAY -9' 31-17...SR: Green Bay 7-3)

NY Giants 23 - WASHINGTON 16—Giants led 16-0 late in first half of
opening-day meeting between these two, and they appear to have improved
since, even with declining contributions from Plaxico Burress (10 for 133 in first
game). N.Y. is 12-1 vs. spread last 13 on road and appears improved since that
game, being triple deep at RB (check Brandon Jacobs’ status), while
Washington’s Clinton Portis (1206 YR) carrying a huge load. Skins’ defense
tough, but has only 17 sacks.
(08-GIANTS 16-Wash. 7...N.21-11 N.32/154 W.24/84 N.19/35/1/200 W.15/27/0/125 N.0 W.0)
(07-Giants 24-WASH. 17...N.19-14 N.30/96 W.27/82 N.21/36/2/219 W.16/34/0/178 N.1 W.1)
(07-Wash. 22-GIANTS 10...W.20-14 W.35/153 N.28/139 N.18/53/0/168 W.8/25/0/156 W.0 N.1)
(08-NY GIANTS -4 16-7; 07-NY Giants +3' 24-17, Wash. +5 22-10...SR: NY Giants 87-62-4)

Miami 31 - ST. LOUIS 16—Given the fact St. Louis has been outscored 123-
13 in the first half of its last four games, the main mystery of Ram games these
days is what the Vegas sportsbooks decide to do with their first-half prices
(we’re guessing St. Louis trading at a pretty deep discount). No matter, have no
interest in backing dispirited Ram crew that now might see QB Bulger
(concussion last week vs. Bears) join Steven Jackson & Orlando Pace on
sidelines. Can’t wait to see what havoc Miami’s “Wildcat” formations wreak vs.
soft Ram “D” allowing nearly 5 ypc. (04-MIAMI +6 31-14...SR: Miami 8-2)
Baltimore 23 - CINCINNATI 10—With Cincy’s makeshift OL causing
Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick to risk the sort of beatings once reserved for the
likes of George Chuvalo and Tex Cobb, we shudder to think what damage Ray
Lewis and the ravenous Raven defense might cause. Remember, Bengals had
most hands on deck, including QB Palmer and diva Ocho Cinco, when held to
just 158 yards in opener at Baltimore. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been mostly
heady and steady, and no shame in any of Ravens’ defeats (vs. Steelers,
Titans, Colts, & Giants).
(08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1)
(07-CINCY 27-Balt. 20...B.20-13 B.25/107 C.23/55 B.22/40/2/207 C.20/32/0/181 C.2 B.4)
(07-Cincy 21-BALT. 7...C.17-16 C.34/70 B.18/66 C.23/34/0/256 B.23/34/2/206 C.0 B.4)
(08-BALTIMORE +2 17-10; 07-CINCINNATI -2' 27-20, Cincinnati +3' 21-7...SR: Baltimore 14-11)

Indianapolis 31 - CLEVELAND 17—Browns’ defense (98 points in
last three games prior to last week) appears to be slipping, and, now, emerging
QB Brady Quinn had to be pulled last week because of his finger fracture. Plus,
there’s new speculation a losing season might cost Romeo Crennel his job
(more Bill Cowher talk fired up last week). Cleveland has covered its last five as
a dog. But Indy is now hitting its stride, with four straight wins, Manning and OL
healthy, Joseph Addai back in action, and Colts 23-8 SU on road last 3+Ys.
Braylon Edwards leads the NFL in drops.
(05-INDIANAPOLIS -14 13-6...SR: Cleveland 15-13)

Atlanta 24 - SAN DIEGO 23—M.T. vs. L.T., as Michael Turner (1088 YR)
returns to S.D., where he gave up a year of free agency LY in order to give the
Chargers a powerful backup in their derailed try for the Super Bowl. Now, “The
Burner” has got his new team in the playoff chase, while S.D. is moaning about
its frequent late losses. We’ll trust in HC Mike Smith & outstanding rookie QB
Matt Ryan vs. the vulnerable Charger defense.
(04-ATLANTA -4' 21-20...SR: Atlanta 6-1)

Pittsburgh 23 - NEW ENGLAND 20—It’s Belichick vs. Roethlisberger when
the Steelers have the ball, and Cassel vs. LeBeau when the Patriots do.
Foresee an edge to LeBeau, especially with Pittsburgh getting a much-needed
few days extra rest their walking wounded (including Roethlisberger & Willie
Parker). Cassel has hit the 400-mark passing two straight games, but Pitt’s toprated defense has kept all foes TY under 300 total yards!
(07-N. ENG. 34-Pitt 13...N.21-19 P.32/181 N.9/22 N.32/46/0/399 P.19/32/0/168 N.0 P.1)
(07-NEW ENGLAND -10' 34-13...SR: Pittsburgh 13-10)

Kansas City 20 - OAKLAND 17—Payback time for the Chiefs, who saw thenstarting
QB Damon Huard depart TY’s first meeting with an early concussion,
leaving then No. 3 Tyler Thigpen to take over. Raiders (no offensive TDs previous
three games), had an outpouring of three last week in Denver. But Thigpen now
making use of K.C.’s re-tailored offense and quality targets Tony Gonzalez and
Dwayne Bowe. K.C. has won five straight in Oakland!
(08-Oak. 23-K. CITY 8...O.18-15 O.47/300 K.19/55 K.17/38/2/135 O.6/17/0/55 O.2 K.0)
(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)
(07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)
(08-Oakland +3' 23-8; 07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-45-2)

*Chicago 24 - MINNESOTA 23—Minny, which has allowed eight defense/
return TDs TY, gave up three of them in wild first meeting—one each on a blocked
punt, mishandled punt, and a fumble. Chicago (four ints. of depressed Rams last
week), unlikely to benefit from such generosity in rematch. However, Vikes
reportedly face the prospect of having top DE Jared Allen (8 sacks) and key DTs
Kevin Willams (8½ sacks) & Pat Williams (one) suspended this week because of
substance violations. With that possibility looming, not eager to lay any points at
this writing. TV—NBC
(08-CHI. 48-Minn. 41...M.28-20 M.32/155 C.22/53 M.25/40/4/284 C.21/32/0/274 C.1 M.1)
(07-Minn. 34-CHI. 31...C.20-16 M.43/311 C.24/83 C.26/45/2/375 M.9/23/0/133 M.0 C.2)
(07-MINN. 20-Chi. 13...M.21-11 M.34/136 C.17/32 M.18/29/3/236 C.22/38/1/177 M.1 C.0)
(08-CHICAGO -3 48-41; 07-Minn. +5 34-31, MINN. -10' 20-13...SR: Minnesota 50-43-2)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 1
*HOUSTON 31 - Jacksonville 23—Jags only 1-5 vs. spread in trips to
Houston. And Jacksonville is only a shell of its 2007 physically-dominating self,
with its OL interior crippled with injuries and its defense lacking LY’s chemistry
and intimidation. Although Sage Rosenfels (2 more ints. last week) not as reliable
as Matt Schaub, his supporting cast of rookie RB Steve Slaton (774 YR), and
receivers Andre Johnson (81 recs.), Kevin Walter (47) and Owen Daniels (48) is
far better balanced than that of the Jags. Houston “over” 9-2 TY; 13-3 last 16.
CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-JACK. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0)
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2)
(07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1)
(08-JACK. -7 30-27 (OT); 07-JACK. -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-6)

RED SHEET ONLINE

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

MEMPHIS 45 - Tulane 17 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Memphis minus 13, and is still minus 13. Tigers
represented our only miss on 9 Pointwise Key Releases LW, when they failed vs CentFla,
despite holding the Knights to 10 FDs & <200 yds (42 in 2nd half). Thus, they need this one
for bowl eligibility. Their ability to move the ball, is hardly reflected in their won/loss record,
as their balanced attack ranks 23rd in running, 29th in passing, & 20th on overall offense.
And as we wrote a week ago, the depleted Greenies present the perfect foils. In off allowing
489 RYs, & are minus 126½ pts ATS in their last 8 outings. Lay the 2 TDs.
RATING: MEMPHIS 89

ALABAMA 33 - Auburn 10 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Line opened at Alabama minus 14½, and is now minus 14. Topranked
Tide completes a perfect season with a win here, & altho they hardly need further
incentive in this splendid rivalry, they nonetheless have the added motivation to break the
Tigers stranglehold, having taken 6 straight from 'Bama. Simple fact: Auburn ranks 99th in
the land on offense, while the Tide ranks 3rd in the nation on defense. This marks 'Bama's
4th revenge play of the season, & thus far it is now only perfect on the field, but has covered
all 3 previous setups. Frustrations taken out with some to spare.
RATING: ALABAMA 89

Florida 49 - FLORIDA STATE 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Florida minus 14½, and is now minus 15½. We
had figured on a spread closer to 20 pts on this contest, so we gladly jump in with the
smaller spot. The series host has been the way to go when these 2 meet, covering 15 of
their last 20 meetings, but this Gator team is in a class of its own, with an incredible scoring
edge of 299-63 in their last 6 lined games (since their loss to OleMiss) covering those halfdozen
by a combined 127 pts. Check 346 RYs on SoCarolina's brilliant "D", with Tebow the
perfect steady hand at the controls. Improved 'Noles are simply no match.
RATING: FLORIDA 88

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 - Miami-Florida 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 1½, and is now
minus 2. The Wolfpack just keeps on doing it. Now 6 consecutive covers, and 7 straight
payoffs in ACC play. Check back-to-back-to-back upsets in their last 3 games, with last
week's rout of arch-rival UNC, resulting in not only keeping them alive in their bowl quest,
but an amazing 43-pt cover. And check a yardage edge of 466-203 in that contest. Led by
QB Wilson (13 TD passes the last 7 weeks), their confidence factor is peaking. 'Canes in
off allowing most RYs in 64 years (472) in loss to GaTech, & failing in last 2 revengers.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 88

South Carolina 22 - CLEMSON 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 1½, and is now minus 1.
Three covers in Tigers' last 4 games, after opening on a 5-game spread slide, so they are
clicking on all cylinders, right? Hardly. Their supposedly potent offense, featuring the
overland brilliance of Davis & Spiller, along with the overhead excellence of Harper, has
never materialized, with Clemson ranking 91st in rushing, & 70th in total offense. Thus, a
revenge call for the Gamecocks, whose solid "D" has had to live with that embarrassment
vs Florida, for 2 weeks. Look for Spurrier & Co to gain their pound of flesh this wk.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88

Kansas City 23 - OAKLAND 13 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Oakland minus 3, and is still minus 3. Any time
that the Raiders are installed as a chalk, it is normally a prudent play to jump in with their
opponent. As a matter of fact, Oakland has been on the wrong end of a 9-0 spread run in
that designation since the middle of the '05 season. They came thru nicely for us a week
ago, in their 31-10 rout of the Broncos, while the Chiefs were being bombarded by Buffalo,
54-31. But that combo only serves to give us fine value here. Remember, KC has covered
its last 2 RGs by 10 & 14 pts, & the visitor stands at 11-1 ATS in this series.
RATING: KANSAS CITY 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oklahoma, USC, SoMiss, TexTech, Nevada - NFL: Ravens, Browns, Jaguars

Does anyone have the Mark Lawarence Playbook news letter write-ups?
Thanks

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

PLAY ON any college conference
home dog or ‘pick’ in their Last
Home Game of the season playing
off a win with rest and revenge...
bringing the opponent in off a
win as our angle zooms up to 23-
4 ATS in this role. Now that’s what
I call a genuine thirst-quenching
libation! Oh yeah, there is one
play on this week’s card and – are
you ready for this frosty one… it’s
Oklahoma State plus the points
against Oklahoma!

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
college favorite of more than
9 points in their fi nal game of
the season versus a .600 or
greater foe that has revenge

Play Against:
BOISE STATE BRONCOS

ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 14-1-2 (93%)

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

Auburn is 14-3 SU and ATS under
head coach Tommy Tuberville in games
against undefeated SEC opponents

When teams on a win streak reach the fi nal game of the regular
season, it’s frequently with a sigh of satisfaction. Contentment,
though, often turns to bitter disappointment when they enter the
season fi nale off a straight-up underdog win.
Consider – since 1980 college conference teams off back-to-back
victories are just 41-63-3 ATS if their last win was as an underdog.
This week’s teams that may end up bottoming out are: Buffalo,
Central Florida, Mississippi, NC State and Oregon State. Worse yet,
they dip to 18-35-3 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent
they lost to in their most recent meeting. One team fi nds itself in this
role this week: Ole Miss.
When cast into the role of a favorite or dog of 5 or less points in
season fi nales, off back-to-back wins with the last as an underdog,
they dip to 8-22-1 ATS. And if their opponent allows less than 27
PPG on the season, they drop to 4-21-1 ATS. The Rebels of Ole Miss
will try and overcome this ‘return to earth’ phenomenon on Saturday
against Mississippi State.
To that we say, “Look Out Below”. It won’t be an asteroid you’ll hear
crashing to earth this weekend. Just Johnny Reb…

5 BEST BET

NEBRASKA over Colorado by 28

Would it be fair to say that the talent level at Michigan and Nebraska
was pretty much even heading into the 2008 season? If you agree,
then take a moment to examine the results of the schools’ two new
coaching staffs. Rich Rodriguez and company, despite playing in the notso-
competitive Big 10, laid the biggest egg in the Wolverines’ history
while unheralded Bo Pelini and friends tackled the much tougher Big
12 and have the Cornhuskers poised to bag an 8-win season and a
bowl berth. The Corn Boys won’t need any extra incentive from Bo
to open up a big can of whup-ass on the visiting Buffaloes. Last year
the Huskers were denied a winning season and a bowl bid when the
Buffs trampled Nebraska into corn dust in a 65-51 annihilation. But
the shoe is on the other hoof now with Colorado needing a victory
to make a return trip to postseason play. Like George Herbert Walker
Bush was so fond of saying, “Ain’t gonna happen.” The Bison are 0-
3 SU and ATS away from Boulder this year and coach Dan Hawkins
has staggered to a horrible 2-16-1 ATS mark when his Buffs lose SU as
underdogs. The vast majority of ink attributed to Big 12 quarterbacks
this season has gone to Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford
and Chase Daniel – but Nebraska has a pretty good signal-caller of
its own in Joe Ganz. The Huskers have quietly moved into the 10th
spot nationally in total offense with 462.9 YPG and Ganz has had an
extra week off to rest a sore shoulder, all of which spells big trouble
for Colorado. Our powerful database chips in with this beauty: .500 or
greater teams playing their Last Home Game with rest and revenge off
a win of 12 or more points are 32-10 ATS since 1980. Ever since opening
his Colorado career with a shocking 19-10 home loss to Montana State,
we’ve thought Hawkins was in way over his head – and we think he’ll
get schooled by Pelini today. Big Red is back!

4 BEST BET
South Carolina over CLEMSON by 10
Steve Spurrier is not a man who takes kindly to being humiliated
and this week he heads to the road off the worst loss in his college
coaching career, a 56-6 massacre at the hands of his former team, the
Florida Gators. However, Spurrier won’t need any added incentive to
get up for Clemson. The Gamecocks and Tigers hate each other even
worse than the British despise the French – and the only thing South
Carolina fans love more than beating Clemson is beating the Tigers on
the enemy’s home fi eld. Clemmie’s Dabo Swinney is a coaching babe
in the woods compared to Spurrier but Tommy Bowden’s replacement
has done okay after being thrust into the fi re, winning 3 of his 5 games
at the helm. Unfortunately, Swinney will be hamstrung by Clemson’s
poor 2-9 ATS failure in Last Home Games when taking on a non-ACC
foe playing with revenge, including 0-5 ATS off a SU win. Conversely,
Spurrier arrives with a 5-1 ATS mark in season-enders off a loss (3-0
taking points) and the Cocks are 5-0-1 ATS lately off a double-digit
ATS defeat. And lest we forget, the Ol’ Ball Coach is the answer to
this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, a directive that seldom steers us
wrong. Spurrier evens his SU mark against Clemson to 2-2 with a win
at Death Valley today.

3 BEST BET
Lsu over ARKANSAS by 14
“What goes up, must come down,” sang Blood, Sweat & Tears in their
classic hit, ‘Spinning Wheel’ – and that phenomenon has showed up
with teeth this year in Baton Rouge. Following last year’s BCS title win
over Ohio State – and three straight seasons under Les Miles where
the Bayou Bengals tasted defeat just twice – the law of gravity has
dragged the Tigers down to a disappointing 7-4 campaign in 2008.
Three of those losses have come on the home turf at Death Valley
but before this season, Miles’ team suffered only a pair of setbacks at
home since he took control in 2005. The latter of those was LSU’s only
home loss in 2007, a wild 50-48 shootout that went to today’s foe, the
Arkansas Razorbacks. Yes, the Tigers are down a few notches from
recent seasons but they can still make sausage out of Bobby Petrino’s
rebuilding Hogs (Arky blew 14-0 lead last week and lost to Missy
State). And if LSU QB Jarrett Lee can’t go after leaving the Ole Miss
game with a leg injury, don’t fret… we think the Bengals are better off
with him riding the pine. THE DATABASE JUST SENT THIS IN: defending
National Champs off a SUATS Loss in which they scored less than 30
points are 17-3-1 ATS in their next game. Stack that on the shelf with
LSU’s 4-0 ATS record in weekday road trips and a 7-2 ATS mark in Last
Road Games, and you can look for pork to be headlining the menu at
Little Rock today.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Oregon over OREGON ST by 6
This year’s ‘Civil War’ has some added meaning as the hosts will try
to knock off their in-state rivals for the third straight year and nab
a trip to Pasadena in the process. The feeling here is the Beavers will
face enormous pressure in their quest to make their fi rst Rose Bowl
appearance since the Beatles led the British invasion. With double
revenge on their minds and Oregon HC Mike Bellotti a healthy 7-1
ATS away with rest when facing a conference foe, we’ll look for the
high-fl ying Ducks to not only cover the 3-point number but to grab the
outright win. We’ll turn to our trusty database for additional ammo:
the Beavers are a woeful 1-19 ATS as favorites when they allow more
than 24 points in a contest and that should be the case this Saturday
in Corvallis as the visitors are averaging over 30 PPG on the road under
Bellotti. Also don’t forget about that other little thing we like to call
our SMART BOX. Like a high school girl on Proactive, Riley is roseless.

Miami Fla over NC STATE by 6
Off their incredulous 41-10 trouncing of hated North Carolina, the left-fordead
Wolfpack has fought their way to within a single victory of becoming
bowl eligible... which they can accomplish today by winning at home against
the Hurricanes. Bad stats abound for the visitors: they’re just 2-18 ATS as
regular season chalk of fewer than 24 points off a loss and head coach Randy
Shannon has compiled a weak 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS record as an ACC favorite.
NC State attracts even more attention with its 8-4 SU and 7-3 ATS home log
after tangling with UNC (6-1 as a pick or dog) but wait just a minute… what’s
that object moving towards us? It appears to have six sides… and somehow
evokes an impression of extreme intelligence… of course! It’s our very own
SMART BOX and this week it’s telling us NOT to go running with the Pack
against the resurgent Hurricanes. Hmm… Miami has cashed in 4 of the last
5 meetings, plus they’re looking to avenge last year’s 19-16 loss to NCSU as
10.5-point home chalk. Hey, when the SMART BOX talks, we listen.

WAKE FOREST over Vanderbilt by 3
Both teams come limping into bowls after choking on the chalk last week.
Wake (-1.5) lost to Boston College, 24-21, in the closing minutes at home
while Vandy (-3) was embarrassed by Tennessee at Nashville, 20-10 – and
there’s really not much to recommend here, either. The Commodores have lost
both SU and ATS the last 2 times they’ve squared off with a non-conference
opponent after tackling Tennessee and the Deacs own an excorcism-worthy
1-10 ATS mark of failure when favored by more than a FG over a non-ACC
adversary. With Vandy currently 4-1 ATS on the road and Wake Forest just 2-4
ATS at home, we could entertain the notion of taking an SEC dog against an
ACC favorite. But we don’t usually risk our hard-earned money on notions.

BOSTON COLLEGE over Maryland by 3
We don’t know if David Copperfi eld still stages the best disappearing act
in Vegas but whoever owns that distinction would have to be impressed by
the one Maryland pulled last Saturday night against Florida State. The Terps
were battered, shattered, creamed and reamed in a 37-3 Seminole uprising,
held to just 252 total yards while blundering away 4 turnovers and sending
the home crowd streaming to the exits. Such futility should really set the
table for a Boston College team that’s cashed 3 out of 4 recently against
Maryland, owns a 6-1 ATS mark when playing with conference revenge and
will snag a spot in the ACC title game with a win here. However, we wouldn’t
get excited just yet. Big Ralph’s shell-dwellers are 7-1 ATS after playing FSU
and they’re extremely dangerous underdogs, winning 4 games SU as pups
this season. The Eagles fl y in off a pair of SU dog wins themselves but lost
QB Chris Crane for the season with a broken collarbone against Wake Forest
and will go with Dominique Davis instead. Add this uncertainty at the QB
position to the fact that teams playing their fi nal game of the season off BB
SU dog wins are a miserable 11-26-1 ATS – including 1-13 ATS as chalk – and
you’ll know why we’re taking the tortoises over the raptors.

VA TECH over Virginia by 6
Talk about luck… two weeks ago the Hokies seemed to have no shot at all
to win the ACC Coastal division but after Miami and North Carolina selfdestructed
in crucial games, Beamer Ball fi nds itself just 1 win away from a
trip to the ACC championship. Even better, the fi nal obstacle just happens to
be Tech’s favorite whipping boy, the Virginia Cavaliers. The Wahoos haven’t
covered in their last 4 tries against VT and have posted a feeble 0-3-1 ATS
mark at Blacksburg. But Al Groh’s Cavs are dynamite in this weekend’s role,
going 11-1 ATS with revenge off a loss when taking on a foe off a win –
including 8-0 as dogs. Virginia also owns the added incentive of becoming
bowl-eligible should they knock off the Hokies, a feat well within the realm
of possibility considering the strange goings-on in this year’s ACC. Virginia
Tech’s fans win this one but Virginia’s bettors walk away with the green.

N Carolina over DUKE by 4
The Blue Devils are cursed with some ruinous numbers heading into this
matchup: they’re 0-5 ATS after Va Tech, 1-4 ATS home with conference
revenge and 2-6 ATS in Last Home Games. But even those bad stats coupled
with UNC’s fl awless 7-0 ATS mark as away chalk of 24 or less points off BB
ATS losses can’t sell us on the Tar Heels. No, we can’t trust a road favorite
that rumbles into town leaking a signifi cant amount of oil; the Heels are 0-3
‘In The Stats’ in their last 3 games and have won the ITS war in just 3 of 11
contests this season. Series history may suggest otherwise but the Blue Devils
have always played their best against Carolina (4 of the last 5 games decided
by 18 total points). Again.

CINCINNATI over Syracuse by 25
This time last year we wrote these words about Syracuse head coach Greg
Robinson: “If Robinson can avoid the coaching guillotine after Syracuse
concludes another disastrous season by losing to Cincinnati, he deserves
a place in Ripley’s ‘Believe It Or Not’ Museum”. Not only did Robinson
survive that 52-31 whipping to return for another year in 2008, he also
landed a likeness in Madame Tussaud’s Wax Museum right next to Gerry
Faust. Just think, Orange fans… one more week and you’re free of a
coaching scourge the likes of which has seldom been seen at this level
of college football. In the meantime, though, you’ll have to watch your
team struggle against the anti-Irish angle in effect: teams who upset
Notre Dame are 11-25-3 ATS in their next game since 1980. Meanwhile,
the Bearcats have cashed 3 straight tickets against the ‘Cuse, own a 4-1
ATS mark recently as double-digit home favorites and head coach Brian
Kelly is a money-making 17-3 ATS off a pointspread win. Oh, one more
thing… a victory here gives Cincy the Big East crown and a trip to a BCS
bowl. B-L-O-W-O-U-T.

TEXAS TECH over Baylor by 14
Jeez, what was that loud ‘pop’? C’mon, you know what it is… the dreaded
BUBBLE BURST and this week it’s attached itself to the unlucky Red Raiders
of Texas Tech. Yes, TTRR’s bubble wasn’t just burst last week by Oklahoma
– it was obliterated like it got hit by a death ray from one of those alien
spacecraft in ‘Independence Day’. It’s a real shame, too, because Tech can
deal a winning ATS hand in this mismatch (Leach: 21-8-1 ATS off a loss of
3 or more points, for example) and Baylor’s trends suggest the Bears are in
the wrong place at the wrong time this week. But no matter how glowing
the stats, the fact is that 65-21 takes quite a few days to wash off. Baylor is
actually an improved team under 1st-year head coach Art Briles and could
hang tough against a bunch of down-in-the-mouth Red Raiders. If we step
in here, we’ll do it doggie style.

MEMPHIS over Tulane by 16
Whenever Tulane’s Bob Toledo tires of the coaching game, he may just fi nd
a career waiting in stand-up comedy. Try this one on for size, delivered to
the press after Tulsa rushed for a mind-boggling 489 yards against Toledo’s
defense: “We thought they’d be trying to take it outside on us more, so we
went with a 3-5 front that left us a little soft.” Nice one, Bob; a few more
like that and you may be fi lling out job applications at the Employment
Security Commission. The Golden Hurricane’s merciless 56-7 thrashing of
the Tulane means the Greenies probably won’t be overly excited about
ending their miserable season with another road trip, this one to Memphis.
The visitors haven’t had much luck in this series, either, going 0-4 ATS of
late and 1-7 ATS in 8 prior trips to the Liberty Bowl. However, Memphis will
very much be looking forward to this contest since the Tigers can qualify
for their 4th bowl in 5 years with a win today. Facing a ‘defense’ that’s
been shredded for 43 PPG in its last 5 games, Tommy West’s team won’t
blow this opportunity. Tulane tumbles to 2-10 SU and ties a school record
for most losses.

Nevada over LA TECH by 6
Nevada showed a lot of fi ght by coming back from a 24-3 halftime defi cit
against Boise State but the best we could do was ‘push’ our 10* Game of the
Year with the Wolf Pack last week. The Reno Wolves will have to do better
this Saturday if they expect to reach the postseason; currently 6-5, a loss here
may leave them out in the cold with a 6-6 mark. Not so for Derek Dooley’s
Bulldogs, who have already made their reservations with a 7-4 record. La
Tech has also won 5 consecutive league games and the Dogs have yet to lose
at Ruston this season. Maybe so but the hosts have failed to ring the register
in 3 straight against the Wolves, losing the last 2 meetings by an intimidating
92-10 defi cit. Look for Nevada coach Chris Ault to reload the potent ‘Pistol’
offense and direct QB Colin Kaepernick to another big outing.

Houston over RICE by 1
Last week’s huge 42-37 come-from-behind win over UTEP keeps the Cougars
on pace to reach the C-USA Championship game with a victory over city
rival Rice here. If it all came down to the running game, Houston would
be a lock: the Coogs rush for a whopping 5.2 YPC while the Owls’ defense
allows an identical 5.2 yards. But things are seldom so simple and a scan of
the ATS archives tells us the barn birds bring some ammunition of their own
to the fray. Rice is an astonishing 19-2-1 ATS as a conference home dog and
also owns an eye-popping 11-2-1 ATS mark at home against a C-USA foe.
With QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard breaking records every week
for the Owls, expect nothing less than a fi ght to the death between these
bitter enemies.

UTAH ST over New Mexico St by 6
When the fi nal gun sounds today, both teams’ coaching staffs should join
the Senior class in cleaning out their lockers. Brent is no longer the Guy
for Utah State. A win here will wrap up the Aggies’ head coach’s career in
Logan with a dreadful 9-38 SU record, a mark even worse than Syracuse’s
Greg Robinson. Hal Mumme hasn’t fared much better with the Las Cruces
Aggies, posting a shameful 11-37 SU record heading into this season fi nale –
probably Mumme’s last. You’ll need a large pair to bet on NMSU: the Aggies
are an awful 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS as dogs of 12 points or less versus a
losing opponent. But don’t take that statement as any sort of endorsement
for Utah State. Best to avoid this altogether.

Southern Miss over SMU by 17
Now that we don’t have Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez to kick around any more,
let’s turn our attention to the second worst head coaching hire made in 2008
– the arrival of former Hawaii boss June Jones in Dallas. We don’t know
Jones’ area of expertise in non-football matters but a PhD in snake oil sales
would come as no surprise, especially after he cooked up a contract that
earned him lots of money for minimal results. Yes, with only one win this
year against lowly Texas State, Jones’ agreement has worked out to a cool
$2 million per victory… probably not what the SMU brain trust had in mind
when they conspired to lure their man from Hawaii. Unlike the pathetic
1-10 Ponies, Southern Miss has caught fi re lately, winning three in a row
to ensure at least a beggar’s chance at a bowl bid if they stampede the
Mustangs today. Jones’ spread offense has never jelled all season long (just
43 total points in the last 3 games) and with the Hattiesburg Eagles covering
3 straight recently as chalk, we’ll take fl ight with the visitors here.

MISSOURI over Kansas by 10
One year ago this week the Kansas Jayhawks were sittin’ pretty… 11-0 on
the season, the No. 2 ranked team in the land and apparently on their way
to the BCS title game. Along came Missouri and suddenly, 60 minutes later,
Mark Mangino’s squad was headed to the Orange Bowl instead. The 36-28
SU and ATS loss proved to be the only pointspread defeat for the Jayhawks
the entire season. Thus, this game has been circled in RED INK for Kansas.
Missouri already owns a pass to the Big 12 championship game next week,
win or lose here. The Jayhawks’ 7-1 ATS mark with conference revenge ties
nicely into this setup. So does the Tigers’ 0-6 ATS record as a favorite off a
conference road win of 14 or more points. With a week of rest and off backto-
back losses, KU grabs the cash in this border rivalry rematch.

Oklahoma over OKLAHOMA ST by 3
Do you think the Sooners were laying in the weeds, waiting on Texas Tech,
or what? Last week’s 65-21 destruction of the Red Raiders vaulted Oklahoma
to No. 3 in the BCS and No. 2 in the Coaches poll as they make their move
toward a ticket to this year’s Championship Game in Miami. Before they
arrive, however, there’s this little matter of getting past rival Oklahoma
State, a team that has also been laying in the weeds awaiting this contest.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS the last fi ve as a host in the series and 11-4-1 ATS
mark at home with rest. They’ll be looking to avenge quintuple losses in the
series, including a 49-17 setback in last year’s season fi nale. After a blistering
7-0 start to the 2008 campaign, OSU is just 2-2 SU in its last four games. They
are, however, the play in this week’s JUST CHILLIN’ article penned by Marc
Lawrence (see page 2) and are a very dangerous dog in their fi nal home
game of the season. On a cold day in Okie, the Cowboys will look to put the
red-hot Sooners on ice in Stillwater.

GEORGIA over Ga Tech by 5
There is perhaps no deeper disappointment for a team that was seeded No.
1 in the land before the season began to have to close it out without even
a chance to win its own conference, let alone the national championship
they had aspired to. That being the case, how interested are the Georgia
Bulldogs in entertaining the Ramblin’ Wreck here today? Sure, there is the
matter of state bragging rights and winning recruiting battles, but the fact
of the matter is the desire is long gone. Georgia’s 0-7 ATS home record in
games off a win-but-no-cover is bad enough. Combine that with the fact
that pre-season No.1 ranked teams who are not undefeated in season fi nales
are a miserly 2-10 ATS when going into revenge (where else can you fi nd
information like this other than the PLAYBOOK?) and the Techsters look like
the right side here today. Paul Johnson’s 16-5 ATS mark as a road dog (7-1
versus an opponent off an ATS loss) clinches it. Yellow Jackets in a sting.

Tulsa over MARSHALL by 13
The Hurricane currently resides in a three-way tie at 6-1 with Houston
and Rice in the C-USA West Division race. Because they lost to Houston
two weeks ago they will need help from Rice to secure the top spot and a
return trip to this year’s title game. Hence, they will likely be watching the
scoreboard more than usual today. Regardless, a win today secures a second
10-win season in two years for head coach Todd Graham. The money may be
another issue, though, as the Thundering Herd is 7-1-1 ATS as a home dog
against winning opposition. Take a look at the points before playing.

ALABAMA over Auburn by 7
Above all other things in this Iron Bowl showdown it’s most important to
remember one thing – win or lose, the Tide will be squaring off against
Florida for the SEC crown next week. A loss, however, would take them out
of the running for the BCS title game. It’s not often you fi nd a team laying
two touchdowns against an opponent they’ve LOST SIX STRAIGHT GAMES
against. And one that needs a win like an elephant needs tusks to become
bowl eligible. Toss in Aubbie’s 4-0 ATS mark as a double-digit conference dog
and Tommy Tuberville being the answer to this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT (see
page 3) and you suddenly have a live dog looking to put a bite on its hated
rival. Sure, Nick Saban has been here before and conquered the SEC but
the pressure to do so under these conditions today is simply immeasurable.
We’ve warned you about rest turning to rust for undefeated teams at this
stage of the season. With Alabama 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games with an
extra wink, it’s caveat emptor all over again.

Florida over FLORIDA ST by 8
Oh my. At what point can the oddsmakers put up a number on the Gators at
this stage of the season that won’t attract money to Florida like penicillin to
a prostitute? We think the line in this game should do the trick. Taking more
points than they ever have at home under Bobby Bowden, the Seminoles
are a nifty 9-3 ATS on this fi eld as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points against
.900 or greater opposition, including 8-1 ATS from game Six. They are also
12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in Last Home Games, including 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS
when playing off a double-digit victory. Enter the Gators, the hottest team
this side of Hades, with a huge showdown game up next against top-ranked
Alabama for the SEC cheese. Amazingly, since 1990, Florida has been on
the non-conference road 5 times against avenging foes, going 1-4 SU and
0-5 ATS – all versus Florida State! Toss in the fact that the last twelve road
favorites that have scored 60 or more points in their previous have gone on
to lose the money 9 times and you can rest assured our attraction is NOT on
the invading alligators. Closer than you think.

TENNESSEE over Kentucky by 1
Phil Fulmer’s fi nal game with the Rocky Tops should have the tears
fl owing in Knoxville. His team is off back-to-back previous home losses
and should want to send him out a winner. Wanting to and doing so
are two different subject matters, though. Tennessee’s despicable 1-12
ATS mark at home as a favorite against winning conference teams is one
of the reasons he’s off to the foothills. The Vols’ 0-4 ATS log at home in
games off back-to-back previous home losses is rotten as well. On the
other side of the coin, Kentucky enters with a super-sharp 6-0 ATS mark
as road dogs with rest when playing off a SU and ATS loss. It’s no surprise
to us to see the visiting team in this series improve to 6-0 ATS here today.
We hope Fulmer takes the time to visit Johnny Majors sometime soon.
He’s the coach Fulmer campaigned to replace while Majors was lying in
the hospital recovering from a heart attack. So long, Phil. Don’t let the
door hit you on your way out.

C FLORIDA over Uab by 4
Someone must have sprinkled pixie dust in the drinking water of the Golden
Knights’ offensive unit as they have “exploded” for 58 points in their last two
games, both resulting in SU wins. We’re not buying it as their latest victory
over Memphis was a phony inside-out win that saw UCF get dominated ‘In
The Stats’, 304-195. Our eyes lit up when we saw this infl ated 9-point line
and we’ll gladly back these “no quit” Blazers who are a profi table 15-3-1 ATS
as dogs off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win. If you don’t believe us,
just ask the ‘Sagacious Square’ and blaze straight to the window

USC over Notre Dame by 25
Uh, oh. Maybe our favorite whipping boy, the lame-duck Greg Robinson,
won’t be out of a job for too long. Maybe he’ll be the next Notre Dame head
man! But it certainly looked like the Irish were the ones who were playing
with a coach on his way out as they blew a 13-point 4th quarter lead to lose
to lowly Syracuse. If Charlie and the ND brass decide to accept a bowl bid this
season, it will likely be at 6-6 since the visitors have far too many numbers to
overcome in this one. For starters, the Trojans hold a 5-1 ATS series lead (3-0
L3 home) and a 10-1 ATS record versus non conference foes with revenge.
Throw in Pete Carroll’s 8-1 ATS mark at home with rest and this could get
ugly, very ugly. Still, we’re just not ready to go to war with these Trojans on
this last Saturday in November. Notre Dame has won the stat battle (ITS)
in their last 8 games this season and check out this little dittie from our
PLAYBOOK database: there have been only three 20-point dogs who lost as
20-point chalk in their previous game and all 3 have covered the spread in
their next contest. Petey and the boys will have one eye on the “Civil War”
so Charlie and company just might be able to sneak in the back door. Pass
for now.

HAWAII over Washington St by 31
Paul Wulff – you just won the Apple Cup for your fi rst lined win of the
season. Where are you going? “I’m going to Disneyland… I mean Hawaii”.
Right you are, Paul. And the good news is you’ll be facing a Warriors’
squad that is just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS vs the PAC 10 since 1998. And since
the Cougars are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog after their annual battle with
the Huskies, this may be a good spot to get a little extra Christmas cabbage,
right? Not so fast, my friends. With Cincy on deck, it looks like the 6-5 hosts
will probably need this one to record a winning season. And with Hawaii 8-1
ATS in their 2nd to last home game of the season, we’re gonna sit back and
enjoy the lei for now.

ADDED GAMES
Arkansas St over N TEXAS by 24
As the sun begins to set on the Sun Belt Conference for the 2008 season, no
less than 6 of the loop’s 8 members have a chance to fi nish the season at 6-6
or better, or bowl eligible. The Red Wolves can actually win out and capture
the crown. It’s highly unlikely, though, given their 1-11 SU road record of
late. Sure, they’ll win this affair with the Eaglets today, but next week’s
journey to Troy is another matter. The glaring stat in this contest is ASU’s 5.3
Offensive Yard Per Rush unit going up against UNT’s 5.8 Defensive Yards Per
rush slop unit. With the Lean Green having coughed up season high – or 2nd
high – yardage in each of its last 5 games, look for Arky State to run North
Texas’ mark to 0-4 SU and ATS in season fi nales today.

Florida Atlantic over Florida Int’l by 8
A disappointing loss by Howard Schnellenberger’s boys last week severely
damaged the Owls hopes of reaching a second-straight bowl game. They
can, however, close out at 6-6 against a South Florida foe they’ve mangled
the last two years (55-23 and 31-0) should they bring their ‘A’ game to
Dolphin Stadium here today. Howie’s teams have not fared all that well in
season fi nales, going 3-8 ATS, including 1-6 when playing off a SU and ATS
loss. Still, while the Panthers have improved considerably this campaign,
they allow 87 YPG more than they gain. Still not completely sold on Mario
Cristobal’s bunch

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5 BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over Arizona by 14
Forget about sending you kid to school to get a major in the sports
agent market. There’s an immediate opening for a sports psychologist
in the greater Philadelphia area. Applicants should send their resumes
to the Eagles front offi ce, attention: Andy Reid. If there has ever been
a team with a more fragile psyche than these Birds we can’t remember
when. How a team with a Top 10 ranked offense and a Top 10 ranked
defense can be 5-5-1 on the season mystifi es players and shrinks alike.
Nonetheless, they are still alive and (barely) breathing in the NFC Wild
Card race. The bottom line is they need this game like macaroni needs
cheese. The clincher is Reid’s 16-2 ATS career mark in games in which
the Eagles are .500 or less on the season and playing off a SU and ATS
loss of more than 7 points! With the Cardinals sitting pretty atop the
NFC West Division perch, we’ll stay at home with these Turkeys, err
Eagles, here tonight. Velveeta!

4 BEST BET
Denver over NY JETS by 6
A tip of the sombrero to Brett Favre and the Flyboys. Not only did
they put a halt to Tennessee’s ten-game win skein, they maintained
the top spot in the AFC East, one of only two divisions in the league
that fi nds every member sporting a winning record. Today they host
the AFC West Division leading Broncos in a game in which both teams
do complete role reversals. And because of it, this game comes packed
with extra value. Not that Mike Shanahan needs it. That’s confi rmed by
his 5-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 3 points off a division loss with
the Broncos. Interestingly, teams who knock off a 10-0 or greater team
are just 1-3 SU and ATS in their next game when facing an opponent
off a loss. After soaring to new heights, look for the Jets to crash land
today

3 BEST BET
WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 7
This game depends on which pair of glasses you choose to look
through. Frontrunners alike see a defending champ out in front of the
pack, mowing down anything in their path en route to another ticket
to the Super Bowl. Others choose to focus in on a team mired in a
battle for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs with revenge against a team
with a fat three-game division lead. What we see is a team that plays
to the level of competition like clockwork. Under head coach Jim Zorn
the Skins are 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS against losing teams and 4-2 SU and
ATS against .500 or better opposition. In fact, they’ve gone toe-to-toe
against three undefeated teams and have won and covered all three
games. Tie that in to Tom Coughlin’s dismal 3-9 ATS career mark as a
division favorite in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including
1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS if his team scored 28 or more points in its previous
game, and just like that we can see clearly now

Thursday, November 27th
Tennessee over DETROIT by 10
It used to be the ole Butterball and the Lions went together like giblets
and gravy on Thanksgiving Day. Not so these days, however, as Detroit has
choked on the wishbone 5 of the last 6 Turkey Day games. And while they
dress up here today as a near-cousin to the infamous ‘Ugly Pig’, it’s an oinker
whose lost the bacon in 7 of 11 games this season. While the Titans are
6-0 ATS as road favorites against .333 or less opposition, they must right
themselves off their initial loss of the season just four days ago. Given the
fact that the seven teams who suffered their fi rst loss of the campaign after
starting 10-0 or better are just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) since 1980, it’s probably best
to pass this game by and load up on the pumpkin pie instead.

DALLAS over Seattle by 13
Another heinous holiday hookup fi nds the 2-win Seahawks taking on the
suddenly resurgent Cowboys in Big ‘D’ on Thanksgiving Day. Thursdays have
been good days for the Boys who are 15-5 ATS as chalk and 9-1 ATS when
facing losing teams. They are also 14-2 ATS as home favorites in November
against sub .500 squads. Before over-basting the bird, though, you should
know that Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in games off back-to-back losses when taking
on a .500 or greater opponent. After having been beaten like a ‘drum’ in the
stats (0-8) since the Bye Week, we’d like to ‘stick’ with the team playing the
better ball but with double-digit home favorites just 4-17 ATS this season,
we’ll load up instead on the whipped cream to go with the pumpkin pie and
sit back and watch.

BUFFALO over San Francisco by 7
This game is a contrast of form over function and it has us pulling out our hair.
For openers, the Bills have been ultra formful this season, going 4-0 SU and
ATS against sub .333 or less opponents and just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against
.333 or greater opponents. Toss in the West Coast woes when playing games
in Eastern Time Zones this season and this game looks like Buffalo wings for
everyone. The function we can’t overlook is the fact that the Niners own
both the better offense and the better defense in this contest. And we will
seldom, if ever, buck that. Your move.

TAMPA BAY over New Orleans by 3
A rematch from the season opener for both teams in which the Saints beat
the Bucs, 24-20, in New Orleans as 3-point favorites. It’s hard to overlook
the Saints’ recent 13-3 ATS mark as division roads dog of 3 or more points,
especially when they trail Tampa and Carolina by two full games in the NFC
South Division race. Then there’s the fact that teams off a Monday Night
performance in which they scored 49 or more points are 4-0 SU and ATS in
their next game since 1980. Given the fact that the Bucs have held 4 of their
last 5 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yardage, and with NFC South Division
teams now an eye-opening 20-2 SU and 16-5-1 ATS at home this season, we’ll
back off the pedal for the time being.

Carolina over GREEN BAY by 3
The Pack limps back to Lambeau off Monday night’s shellacking at New
Orleans having to not only lick their wounds but also overcome a bevy of
numbers in Carolina’s favor. The fi ve teams that have allowed 49 or more
points under the Monday night lights since 1980 are just 1-4 SU and ATS
in their very next game. To make matters worse, the Cheeseheads are 0-6
ATS as favorites after allowing 35 or more points when facing an opponent
off a loss. Carolina’s 16-1 ATS mark as a dog in non-division games against
an opponent that surrendered 28 or more points in its last game fi ts like a
glove.

Miami over ST. LOUIS by 3
The Dolphins obliged rather nicely on these pages in our 5* call on the
Patriots, leading the way to a 6-0 assault on our College and NFL side play
Best Bets last week. St. Louis, however, let us down on the Late Phones, when
Marc Bulger left the game against the Bears, rendering the Rams punchless.
The dilemma here is we’d love to fade the Fish in a role they’ve yet to cover
this year (0-4 ATS as favorites) but without knowing Bulger’s status we’re
landlocked. Our best guess is that Miami’s 0-11 ATS mark as a favorite in
games off a loss will fi nd us residing under the Arch by kickoff.

Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 1
When the Bengals dropped their season opener at Baltimore, 17-10, as 2-
point road favorites this year it sent them into an 8-game winless skein. For
all intents and purposes their season was fi nished before it even began. For
the Ravens, it signaled the start of the Joe Flacco era and the rookie has not
disappointed. He’s 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in division play. Today, the roles have
changed as Flacco goes out as a road favorite for the fi rst time in his young
NFL career. That could be a problem. Looking at Balto’s 0-5 ATS mark as road
favorites before back-to-back home games and Cincinnati’s 6-1 ATS record
under Marvin Lewis against division opponents off a double-digit victory, we
wouldn’t be surprised in the least should the Bengals repay the Black Birds.

Indianapolis over CLEVELAND by 3
Colts’ recent emergence has them back in the playoff picture and that is
not a good thing for fellow post-season aspirants. The problem here today
is that they just got the game they wanted, a playoff revenge win at San
Diego last week, and they’ll now be going outdoors on the shores of Lake
Erie the fi nal week of November. The latter is never a good place for climatecontrolled
(read: dome) teams to be. While the Browns have seen another
season fritter away, the fact of the matter is they’ve had a few moments
this season (beat the Giants and won at Buffalo two weeks ago as puppies).
Don’t discount their chances here today, especially against a Colts squad that
is 0-4 SU and ATS as road favorites in games off a SU underdog win. We’ll
likely be ordering up a Brownie sundae here today.

SAN DIEGO over Atlanta by 1
Yee gads. Had these two teams met on opening week of the 2008 season
the Chargers would likely have been AT LEAST 14-point favorites! Here it is
12 weeks later and the number has been more than sawed in half. Does that
spell value for the beaten and bruised Bolts or is it a ‘buy sign’ for the highfl
ying Falcons? We vote for the latter as underdogs with better offenses and
better defenses are certainly our cup of tea. Can’t dismiss the fact that the
Dirty Birds are 6-0 ATS as dogs in November against opponents off back-toback
defeats. Until San Diego gets its act back in order – and that may never
happen as long as Norv Turner roams the sidelines in La Jolla – we have
to take advantage of a team playing on name and reputation against an
opponent that’s fl at-out playing.

Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND by 3
Another possible playoff preview kicks off in Foxborough where the Patriots
return home off last week’s revenge romp over Miami to host the Steelers.
While New England has held the upper hand in this series, covering the
number in 7 of the last 8 meetings, it’s the Steel City crew that brings a
tough-as-nails top-ranked defense into this fray. It’s also Bill Belichick that
brings an 0-3 ATS career mark into this contest when playing off a SU division
revenge win in which his team covered the line by more than 17 points. Rest
assured Patriot QB Matt Cassel will NOT toss for more than 400 yards for the
3rd straight game against this defense. Grab the points.

OAKLAND over Kansas City by 1
Do you see what we see? Oakland as a favorite? Yikes! The truth of the
matter is there is no way on God’s green earth the Chiefs warrant being
favored to any team in this league. They tried it once this season (against
these Raiders) and lost the game straight-up, 23-8. Oakland assumes the role
for the fi rst time in 2008 after having gone 0-9 ATS laying points since 2005
(1-8 SU). Not surprisingly, the Black-n-Silver is 2-15 ATS as divisional home
chalk. Considering that the visiting team in this series is 10-0 ATS, you know
what we have to do here. Yes, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet
and JUST DO IT.

MINNESOTA over Chicago by 7
This week’s Sunday night fi ght fi nds the Vikings hosting the Bears in a NFC
North division duel of 1st place foes in the Metrodome. Minny lost a shootout
fi ve weeks ago, a game in which they actually outgained Chicago, 439-327.
While the team trends come largely in the Bears favor, the stats back up
Minnesota as they own the better offense and the better defense. Until last
week’s win over the quarterback-less Rams, Chicago had been outgained in
each of its previous six contests. Playing in their 3rd straight road game, we
see Da Bears going into the dumper here tonight

Monday, December 1st
HOUSTON over Jacksonville by 6
On the surface this certainly looks like the right spot to ask the Jaguars to
snap their losing ways. The problem, though, is they are playing rotten
football while the Texans are still fl ying under the radar, having outgained
8 of their last 9 opponents. Houston has also been the breadwinner in this
series, going 7-2 ATS the last 9 games, including 5-1 ATS as a host. Toss in a
measure of revenge from a 30-27 overtime loss earlier this year and it will be
no surprise to us when Jack drops to 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday night
appearances. Houston, we’ve got no problem with you.

NFL TOTALS

3* Bengals
4*UNDER Bills OVER
5*Jets UNDER

THE SPORTS MEMO

ROB VENO
SOUTHERN MISS -13.5 AT SMU
Recommendation: Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles head into this regular season finale as the hottest team in Conference-USA while SMU plays their final home game shorthanded and battered. USM needs a victory here to become bowl eligible and a potential trip to the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl. While a bowl berth may not sound like much to most, it would be a huge coup for a Southern Miss team that was floundering with a record of 2-6 heading into November. Suddenly, first year HC Larry Fedora’s team has reversed all of the negatives, outscoring their last three opponents 108-23. The defense has pulled a magic-type act allowing 228.7 total yards per game during the hot streak after yielding 435.5 over their first eight games. With SMU suspending their starting WR duo of Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson, they are void of proven playmakers as evidenced in their last game a 36-10 loss to UTEP. The pair accounted for 126 catches, 2,005 yards and 20 TDs this season. The ground game ranks last in the nation averaging 44.8 yards per game and the Mustangs’ defense is second to last giving up 490.6 yards per game. The balanced Southern Miss attack rolls to 40+ here while the defense preys on the hapless host’s offense

ED CASH
KENTUCKY +4.5 AT TENNESSEE
Recommendation: Kentucky
I had a 20-star winner on Tennessee last week at Vanderbilt as everything came together perfectly for the Vols. This week, everything comes together just right for Kentucky to end a 23-game losing streak to the Vols. Just because Tennessee got a 20-10 win last week over Vandy doesn’t mean that all is well in Knoxville. The Vols scored on a defensive TD and played solid defense against a flat Vandy team, but they were once again atrocious on offense. The Vols played two quarterbacks, both of whom threw interceptions, and they combined for 14 net passing yards on 11 pass plays. Tennessee has now scored 36 offensive points in its last four games. Kentucky will leave nothing on the field this week. The Wildcats were embarrassed at home by Vanderbilt in their last game and have had two weeks to get ready to snap their losing streak. UK is no juggernaut on offense either, but QB Randall Cobb has been getting better and better and should have a big day in his hometown of Knoxville after Tennessee failed to recruit him. This game means much more to the Wildcats,
and Tennessee shot their last bullets for Fulmer last week in Nashville.

BRENT CROW
HOUSTON AT RICE +3
Recommendation: Rice
This shootout will help decide the C-USA West division. Houston controls
its own destiny with a win over Rice and would host East Carolina in the championship game on December 6th. A Rice win would give them a 7-1 record but they would also need a Tulsa loss to go to the title game. Rice is currently on a five-game winning streak, scoring at least 35 points in all five wins. Houston has won three straight, including a comeback win over UTEP last week and a 70-30 romp over Tulsa at home two weeks ago. Rice is unbeaten at home this season and their potent offense will put up plenty of points against the Houston defense. Houston will also score plenty, as they have gone over 41 points in six of their last seven games. I give the edge here to the Owls at home, as Houston’s three losses and a narrow win at SMU have all been on the road. According to my power ratings, the wrong team is favored as well. I expect the total on this game to be 80 or more, and there will be plenty of points scored. Rice should get the win in a barn burner.

MARTY OTTO
OHIO AT MIAMI (OH) -1
Recommendation: Miami (OH)
I had a chance to play against Miami last Friday when they traveled to Toledo in what seemed to be a pretty obvious throw away game for the Redhawks…they didn’t disappoint. That blowout loss coupled with an Ohio win last week over Akron has set this game up perfectly to play on Miami. This is without a doubt the Redhawks’ Super Bowl; Ohio is their most bitter of rivals and the Bobcats have won two straight in the head-to-head “Battle for the Bricks”. Admittedly, there aren’t many fundamental statistics to back up this play as the Redhawks’ defense has been nowhere near expectations after bringing back every key cog from the MAC’s best unit in 2007. The offense has also been equally as poor. But Ohio isn’t much better. Their defense has been soft and QB Boo Jackson is a walking turnover who is now working with a depleted bunch of skill position
players. What it comes down to is effort and pride and Miami figures to show plenty of both while Ohio might just feel a little too confident after a big win last week and two straight in the rivalry series. It may take a fortunate break or two to go our way but I feel we’ll get it with motivated Miami.

DONNIE BLACK
OREGON +3.5 AT OREGON STATE
Recommendation: Oregon
Oregon State was lucky to save its BCS Rose Bowl berth as they emerged with a win last second win over Arizona last week. This week they face their biggest rival, Oregon.The Ducks enter here off a bye week and would love nothing more than to spoil the Beavers season and dash their Pac-10 title hopes. They have the fundamental match-up to do it as the rushing game will prove to be the key. When Oregon State is outgained on the ground this season they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. This season the were outrushed by Utah, Stanford and Penn State to the tune of more than 100 yards per game. When the Beavers out-rush the opposition they are 8-0. In those victories they have averaged more than 200 yards per game while allowing just 81. Oregon’s rushing attack ranks sixth overall in the nation and can control the line of scrimmage. Further helping our cause is a potential injury to Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers who will have an MRI on his left shoulder. While the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meeting in the Civil War, Oregon State snapped the streak last season with an overtime win in Eugene. Revenge, rest and too much pressure on Oregon State has us looking the way of the underdog in this rivalry game.

ERIN RYNNING
KANSAS +14 VS. MISSOURI
Recommendation: Kansas
Heated rivals collide on neutral turf as the Tigers and Jayhawks do battle in Kansas City this Saturday. This will also be the site for the Big XII Championship game to be played on December 6th. It is critical to understand that the Tigers already have clinched their spot for that game as champions of the Big XII North. Undeniably, this serves as a favorable position for the Jayhawks trying to right what has been a disappointing season. The main culprit behind Kansas’ regression was the switch in schedule as they were pitted up against the Big XII South heavyweights after avoiding them in 2007. Kansas is still a very capable team with an offense that is on par with most of the league. They haven’t look particularly sharp but this game should provide a lot of focus after dropping two straight to the Tigers in the rivalry. No question Missouri is a quality football team, but they’ll be facing an ambush with the Jayhawks. I expect Kansas will be ready to roll with its best effort of the season, which should be plenty of room to slip under the two touchdown spread.

JARED KLEIN
DENVER +9 AT NY JETS
Recommendation: Denver
When you have the mainstream media saying that the New York Jets are the best team in the AFC because they have strung together five straight wins, now is the time to start betting against them. There is no question that the Jets most recent win against the 10-0 Titans was very impressive, but keep in mind that this Jets team is still prone to suspect play (see: loss to Oakland).The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to those same Raiders.Denver’s third overall passing attack (279.9 ypg) should be able to take advantage of a Jets passing defense that ranks 28th overall in the NFL, giving up 239.7 ypg. Despite the rash of injuries suffered, the Broncos have managed to stay competitive and win two out of their last three games while moving into first place in the AFC West. They have also won their last two road games outright and in this matchup we seem to be getting a overreaction in the betting marketplace based on last week’s results. We’ll back the Broncos who will be looking to atone for last week’s horrible performance an play them against an overconfident and overrated New York Jets team.

TIM TRUSHEL
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND -3
O/U 41
Recommendation: Over
The Raiders scored 31 points last week against the Denver Broncos. This would typically be a non-event in most NFL reports, yet for the Raiders it was big news as they scored a total of 31 points in their previous four games combined. In fact, the Raiders hadn’t scored an offensive touchdown in 206 plays covering 15 consecutive quarters but scored three touchdowns in 18 plays during the second half. Against the Denver defense, the Raiders were still ultra-conservative as JaMarcus Russell was just 10-of-11 for 152 passing yards. The Raiders used a healthy dose of the running game as they ran the ball 41 times for 158 yards. This week they will face another division rival and the league’s worst defense in the Kansas City Chiefs. KC ranks dead last in yardage allowed (403 ypg), second-to-last in rushing yardage allowed (166 ypg) and third-to-last in points allowed (29.7 ppg). Over the past seven weeks they have allowed 30 or more points five times. This total is set at 41 and while the Raiders have had difficulty scoring, we would expect some success this week as they go for the season sweep. The market doesn’t fully realize how bad the Chiefs’ defense is and with this reasonable total to shoot at, we’ll play it over.

TEDDY COVERS
DENVER +9 AT NY JETS
O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Denver
Week after week in the NFL, we see teams rebound from poor efforts and follow with dominant showings and post big wins only to fall flat the next time out. In this game, I expect to see both. The Jets are in the mother-of-all flat spots. First, New York played a wild, overtime affair, winning by a field goal against divisional nemesis New England.They followed that up with an even more impressive performance, dominating the previously unbeaten Titans in Nashville. We saw the Titans in the exact same spot this past weekend – off consecutive tough road wins and to no surprise ended up on the losing side of the ledger. I wouldn’t count on seeing the Jets at their best this week. And with the national media and the betting marketplace overreacting to New York’s success, we’re also seeing a vastly inflated pointspread. Meanwhile, Denver is coming off a horrible game at home against the Raiders, losing by three touchdowns to their most hated of rivals. The Broncos, too, were coming off consecutive road wins; laying too many points at home, and they laid the same kind of egg as the Titans. Look for Denver to go back on the road here (note the late afternoon start time, key for any Western team travelling East) and give the Jets everything they can handle.

HELMUT SPORTS
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA -3.5
Recommendation: Minnesota
The previous game this season between these teams saw the Vikings put up their best offensive numbers of the year with a 439 total yard performance. The Bears were practically given the game by many grievous errors by the Vikings. The Bears scored two touchdowns on special teams, one botched punt attempt and another on a punt return that was fumbled into the end zone. Despite numerous Viking miscues they were still in position to tie the game on their final drive. By the games end the Bears had benefited by +4 in the turnover department. Also in this game the Bears had come out and run a no huddle offense catching the Vikings by surprise. That has to be in back of the Vikings minds this week and the Vikings should be better prepared. The Vikings have the 5th best rushing offense in the league and did gain 155 yards on the ground averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the previous match up despite being far behind the entire game. Since the bye week Minnesota is 3-1 while playing excellent defense in their last home game holding the Packers to 184 yards and recording two safeties. The Vikings have a very strong defense against the run (70 yppg), which bodes well for the home favorite since the Bears rank in the lower half of the league in passing yardage.

FAIRWAY JAY
MIAMI AT ST. LOUIS N/L
Recommendation: St. Louis
We cashed in with the Patriots over the Dolphins last week, and we’ll fade the fish this week as they travel to play on the turf in St. Louis. Miami enters off three-straight home games and a huge emotional division loss to New England last week. Road favorites in this role are a longtime losing proposition in the NFL, especially against a non-division opponent favored in this price range. The letdown should be immense, and while the Rams have been brutal in recent weeks in losing five straight games, they should enjoy attacking a yards-per-play defense that is the weakest they will have faced since September. The Rams embarrassing home loss to Chicago last week should be met with a much better effort after allowing 201 rushing yards and managing just 14 yards rushing themselves. Turnovers have been a huge part of the Rams’ problems in recent weeks, as they have lost 4, 3, 5 and 3 the past four weeks. Look for QB Marc Bulger to be back in the lineup this week after getting knocked out of the Chicago game early in the first quarter due to a concussion. You’ll be surprised at the results if the Rams take care of the football. Take the home underdog.