NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS
LY Pitt knocked WV out of the BCS Title game with a 13-9 win (+29) as our Big Dog POW in
“The Backyard Brawl”. PP calls for Pitt to pull a 4 pt outright upset (+3) over WV with a 380-305
yd edge and we agree.
4★ PITTSBURGH (+) 27 WEST VIRGINIA 22
This is just the 2nd time in the last 23 years that the line has been over 8 (UM -13’) in the
Egg Bowl. PP calls for Ole Miss to win by 24 with a 434-241 yd edge and the Rebels could
earn a trip to the Cotton Bowl with a win here.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 31 MISSISSIPPI STATE 7
UTEP nearly pulled off an outright upset of CUSA West leader Houston LW and gave us
a 3★ LPS winner. Now the Miners face East leader EC and need a win to become bowl eligible.
PP says UTEP will win by 2 (line EC -5’) with a 394-321 yd edge and we agree.
4★ UTEP (+) 23 EAST CAROLINA 21
NU is 3-9 ATS since this rivalry was moved to the end of the season. LY CU scored 34
unanswered pts in a 65-51 win. PP calls NU to win by 23 with a 497-235 yd edge and a CU
loss leaves them out of the bowls.
4★ NEBRASKA 38 COLORADO 15
BSU is 6-1 SU & ATS in this series winning by an avg of 14 ppg. PP says Boise fi nishes
their season undefeated with a 29 pt win over FSU and a 508-242 yd edge and we agree.
4★ BOISE STATE 41 FRESNO STATE 12
VT is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in this in-state rivalry. A win here would send VT to the ACC Title
game next week, while a loss means GT will go. PP calls for VT to win by 12 (line 8’) with a
173-37 yd rush edge meaning the Hokies will control the line of scrimmage.
4★ VIRGINIA TECH 19 VIRGINIA 7
Tulane’s defensive attrition is becoming obvious. This is their second straight road game
and 4th in 5 weeks. They have dropped 3 straight SU/ATS and have allowed 46 ppg in those
3 including allowing 593 yds LW. Memphis is projected to outgain Tulane 449-276 this week.
4★ MEMPHIS 33 TULANE 15
Kansas continues to be overvalued due to LY’s results. This season they’ve taken on 4
quality B12 foes (OK, TT, Neb &Tex) and have been outscored by 24 ppg going 1-3 ATS with
the only cover in complete garbage time vs Oklahoma. Kansas is also 1-3 SU on the road
with the only win at Iowa St as an 11 pt fav in which they trailed 21-0 at the half.
4★ MISSOURI 41 KANSAS 24
Sometimes a loss can be a wake up call and check out what the Gators have done since
losing to Ole Miss. They are 7-0 SU (6-0 ATS) winning by 41 ppg. Florida rolls again.
4★ FLORIDA 45 FLORIDA STATE 25
This is the longest current series win streak with the Vols winning 23 straight. Tenn played
hard for departing HC Fulmer LW and do so again holding the Wildcats to just 225 yards.
4★ TENNESSEE 23 KENTUCKY 16
UCF has had a pair of upset road wins and now returns to Bright House Networks Stadium to fi nish
the season. They’re projected with a 317-233 yd edge and they’ve been opportunistic scoring-wise.
4★ UCF 31 UAB 14
WSU has covered 2 straight and knocked off UW LW. While PP is calling for Hawaii to fi nish
with a 409-251 yd edge the Warriors are 0-8 ATS vs the P10 and 0-4 vs BCS teams.
3★ WASHINGTON STATE (+) 15 HAWAII 39
Temple ended a 25 game road losing streak with their 24-20 upset of Akron LY in which
they scored three 4Q TDs. PP says TU will win this year by 5 (line 2’) with the ydg forecast
close, but we think Temple is worth a look.
2★ TEMPLE 37 AKRON 32
This is a spot where the better team is looking up in the standings. Nev has played down to
their opponent in a couple of losses but expect another solid, balanced performance (235 rush &
243 pass) against a foe that’s dropped 2 straight ATS and the Pack has beaten 91-10 the L2Y.
2★ NEVADA 38 LOUISIANA TECH 32
Obviously TT is disappointed after LW’s loss to Oklahoma, but Baylor could make the perfect
tackling dummy. PP calls for a 21 pt win (line 20) by TT with a 585-295 yd edge and though
this is close to the line, we think Leach will have his team focused and ready for this one.
1★ TEXAS TECH 42 BAYLOR 21
NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS
(BAL #24vs CIN #21 CIN #32 vs BAL #2) BAL’s defense & special teams once again came up big as they
forced PHI to bench McNabb for the 1st time in his career. While CIN has 3 extra days rest they have a slew
of injuries on both sides of the ball & lost any momentum from the JAX/PHI games in the loss to PIT. PP gives
BAL a convincing 347-186 yd edge here & we’ll side with a more physical defense & rush attack here.
4★ RAVENS 28 BENGALS 10
(SEA #31 vs DAL #8 DAL #10 vs SEA #28) DAL started off slow vs SF down 6-0 in the 1Q but reality set
in & they outgained SF 388-145 over the fi nal 3Q. DAL is 5-2 ATS on Thanksgiving & have won the L/2 by
a 32-7 margin. SEA is off an emotional game vs former QB Coach Zorn & several other assistants & now
have to travel on a short week with an undersized speed defense vs a very large offense. PP gives DAL a
432-207 yd edge & the stats rankings back it up for a decent play here.
3★ COWBOYS 30 SEAHAWKS 14
DEN #3 vs NYJ #13 NYJ #11 vs DEN #29) The Jets come in off 2 quality wins vs NE & TEN & have a rather
easy slate the rest of the way. DEN beat an inconsistent CLE team & upset ATL only to give away a game
to OAK. While PP only forecasts a 428-334 yd edge the Jets have a big spec teams edge & TO edge here.
Both the side & total are attractive plays here & the early forecast is favorable to both.
3★ JETS 40 BRONCOS 16
3★ JETS/BRONCOS: OVER
NYG #5 vs WAS #3 WAS #13 vs NYG #5) The Giants deactivated RB Jacobs (knee) & pulled WR Burress
(hamstring) early vs ARZ. The defense kept the pressure on Warner all day & converted 2 TO’s into 10
pts & their special teams gave them an avg start at the NYG 44. WAS struggled to put away SEA LW &
RB Portis is only at 75% right now & their best DL DE Carter may miss. PP gives WAS the yardage edge
but the Giants are the proven better talented team here & the play.
3★ GIANTS 26 REDSKINS 14
(TEN #23 vs DET #31 DET #28 vs TEN #7) DET blew a 17-0 1Q lead vs TB LW & gave up 35 straight points.
DET was outgained 245-93 over the fi nal 3Q & its very possible that this game won’t be sold out. They catch an
angry TEN team off its 1st loss on a short week. PP only gives a 346-301 yd edge here & while 1 loss doesn’t
wipe out 10 wins the stats don’t refl ect the talent difference here which keeps this from being stronger.
1★ TITANS 31 LIONS 16
(MIA #8 vs STL #30 STL #29 vs MIA #19) STL is back to playing at the same level they were under Linehan
& were outFD’d 14-5 & outgained 267-62 at the end of the 1H down 24-3. The don’t have a home edge &
could be without RB Jackson (0-8 SU & 2-6 w/o him), LT Pace & QB Bulger (concussion) here. MIA played
a good game vs NE LW despite the score & take a huge step down here. PP only gives MIA a 21 yd edge
here who are an AF for the 1st time in 2 years here. MIA is the better team with playoff hopes while STL has
packed it in & the road team is worth a small play.
1★ DOLPHINS 27 RAMS 19
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
Miami, Fl 21 NC STATE 17 - Last year UM lost 19-16 in OT, marking the 1st time NCSt beat UM S/’71. Last time here in ‘04 Miami won 45-31 (-7). LW UM, who had 5 straight wins & could have clinched at least a tie for 1st in the Coastal Div, was embarrassed on national TV as GT rushed for 472 yds (2nd most all’d UM hist) & beat the Canes 41-23. RB Cooper has rushed for 730 yds (4.8). QB Marve is avg 116 ypg (53%) with an 8-11 ratio & Harris 79 ypg (61%) with a 9-4 ratio. These 2 matchup pretty evenly on offense (UM #52-55) but UM has the defensive edge (#43-71). NCSt upset #25 NC LW 41-10 (NC committed 6 TO’s). QB Wilson was impressive throwing for 279 yds and extending his streak w/o an int to 203 passes (NCSt rec). On the season he is avg 172 ypg (56%) with a solid 14-1 ratio. RB Brown has rushed for 635 yds (4.2) and is #2 w/26 rec (10.8). UM went from controlling their own destiny for the Coastal Title to looking for answers as to what happened to their rush D. The ‘Canes did bounce back after their 26-3 loss vs Fla earlier TY to defeat A&M on the road 41-23. NCSt still needs one more win to become bowl elig and has covered 6 straight.
WAKE FOREST 16 Vanderbilt 10 - Vandy is 7-4 all-time vs WF, but LY’s 31-17 loss gave Vandy a non-winning season for the 25th yr in a row. It was a must win for Vandy while WF was off an important ACC win in their FHG but WF dominated on the road leading 31-3 late 3Q with Vandy having 5 TO’s. Both teams have faced Duke TY with WF winning in OT (33-30) while Vandy lost 10-7 on HC (-10). Vandy was defeated LW 20-10 vs in-state rival Tenn and lost DE Broderick Stewart (broken ankle) for the season and likely will be w/o TB Jared Hawkins (foot inj) here. QB Nickson is avg 99 ttl ypg while Adams is avg 96. LW WF gave up a late TD with 1:12 left and lost to BC 24-21 losing all hopes of a division title. QB Skinner is avg 183 ypg (63%) with a 12-7 ratio, two of which he threw LW (1 returned for a TD). WR Boldin has 69 rec (10.3). While WF has a very slight edge on both sides of the ball (O #92-101, D #23-26), Vandy is 4-0 ATS TY as an AD incl 3 outright upsets. Both teams are 6-5 and looking to improve their bowl pecking order.
VIRGINIA TECH 23 Virginia 6 - Last year #8 VT won the biggest game in the history of this rivalry (33-21) advancing to the ACC Champ game. VT is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in this in-state rivalry. The HT is 8-4 ATS and VT shutout VA their last trip here 17-0 and held VA to just 112 ttl yds. LW VT defeated Duke in an ugly, cold ACC matchup. QB Taylor, who was pulled LW after turning the ball over 3 times, is avg 133 ttl ypg and QB Glennon is avg 88 pass ypg (63%) with a 3-4 ratio. RB Evans has rushed for 926 yds (4.6). VT has the edge on both sides of the ball (O #78-93, D #15-41). UVA has lost 3 straight gms after a 4 game win streak which seemed to have turned their season around. The Cavs now need a win here just to become bowl elig. QB Verica is avg 196 ypg (64%) with a staggering 8-15 ratio. RB Peerman has rushed for 707 yds (5.0) and WR Ogletree has 56 rec (12.7). With a win here VT will capture the Coastal Div for the 3rd time in 4Y and will be headed to Jacksonville for the ACC Champ game, while a loss will send GT.
North Carolina 24 DUKE 10 - Since a 41-0 loss in ‘89, NC is 17-1 SU vs the Blue Devils with 9 straight wins in Durham. Duke has covered the L/3 as they have been an avg dog of 15’ and lost by an avg of 30-26. LY Duke missed a game winning FG in regulation and then another in OT. Last time here in ‘06 NC broke open a 31-31 game with 2 TD’s but Duke got 2 TD’s in the last 4:15 but missed the game tying xp and NC won by 1. LW QB Yates started for the 1st time in 6 wks but didn’t do much vs NCSt and was replaced in the 4Q by Sexton as #25 NC was defeated 41-10. On the year, Sexton is avg 158 ypg (56%) with a 9-6 ratio and Yates is avg 153 (56%) with a 6-2 ratio. WR Nicks has 57 rec (17.0) and RB Draughn has 691 rush yds (4.5). NC has the edges on both sides of the ball (O #68-87, D #54-66). Duke was w/o QB Lewis and top rusher Harris, who were sidelined with injuries (CS), and all of the Blue Devils’ efforts came up short LW vs VT, 13-3 and they lost all hopes of a bowl berth. WR Riley has 56 rec (11.2). With their embarrassing loss LW, NC has knocked itself out of the ACC Title game race.
CINCINNATI 34 Syracuse 10 - LY QB Robinson threw for 419 yds & 3 TD’s vs a tm that had all’d just 10 passing TD’s all year. His 47 att’s was a Syr rec but Cincy had a school record 11 sacks in the 52-31 (-20’) road win. Cincy got the spread covering TD with 1:02 left & is 3-0 SU & ATS in the series incl the 17-3 (-6’) win here in ‘06. The L/2Y Cincy has had a combined 498-222 yard edge at half. Cincy is off a 28-21 win over Pitt. Their win gave them sole possession of 1st place in the BE and brightened their BCS hopes. The Cats played w/o star CB Mickens who sat with knee inj (CS). Cincy has played 5 QB’s TY but Pike has emerged as the leader avg 199 ypg (63%) with a 15-4 ratio. WR Goodman has 70 rec (12.9) 7 TD’s & Gilyard has 56 (15.5) and 9 TD’s. Syr rallied from a 23-10 4Q deficit to upset the Irish 24-23 with :42 left. QB Dantley is avg 124 ypg (50%) with a 10-4 ratio. RB Brinkley is avg’g 100 ypg (5.0). They now face a rush def all’g 105 ypg (3.1) which held them to -15 yds LY. Cincy has the edges everywhere here (off #59-100, def #20-91, ST’s #1-18) and an ever-growing fan base. HC Kelly was a 20+ favorite 2x LY covering both & the Cats are 10-4-1 ATS in home finales. This is Syr’s finale & their win LW may be a blessing for the Cats who will be focused with the smell of Oranges as motivation.
TEXAS TECH 52 Baylor 24 - BU HC Briles received a degree from TT & cch’d RB’s under Leach for 3 yrs (2000-‘02). TT has won 12 in a row over BU by an avg of 30 ppg and is 15-2 SU & 14-3 ATS. TT is 18-4 ATS in home finales. Red Raiders suffered their first loss of the ssn LW as OU put the hammer down 65-21 (52-7 before smoke cleared, all’d 625 yds). QB Harrell is avg 403 ypg (70%) with a 37-6 ratio. His fav target is WR Crabtree (84 rec 12.8). BU is off a bye, playing in their ssn finale & comes in 0-15 SU & 4-11 ATS vs ranked tms (avg loss by 28 ppg). QB Griffin is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 14-2 ratio & leads the tm w/1000 gross rush yds (744 net yds, 4.8) accounting for 65% of the Bears’ entire off. BU is ranked #84 in our pass eff def all’g 250 ypg (66%) with a 20-15 ratio. TT has big off (#3-47) & def (#36-65) edges and in Lubbock this year the Red Raiders are outscoring opp’s by 25 ppg & outgaining them by 232 ypg. BU on the road this yr is being outscored by 17 ppg & outgained by 149 ypg. BU has played well down the stretch (4 straight covers) but TT still has a shot at the B12 South Title (win here & OU loss vs OSU). TT also has torched the BU secondary (470 ypg, 70%, 27-6 ratio L/6) and Leach will have the best tm in his tenure focused (21-10 ATS off a SU loss) after LW.
MEMPHIS 34 Tulane 13 - LY Tulane missed a game clinching FG and the Tigers drove 80 yds and scored the game winning TD with just :36 left. Memphis is 10-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the series and has won the L/4 by an avg of 39-18. Memphis missed a chance to clinch a bowl bid by losing 28-21 (-5) to UCF LW. The Tigers welcomed back starting QB Hall (missed 2+ w/brkn thumb) and outgained the Knights 305-194, but all’d a FR TD and a blk’d punt. Hall played the whole game, but struggled vs a very good UCF secondary completing just 15 of 35 for 183 yds and a 1-1 ratio. UM rushed for 122 yds (3.3), but leading rusher Steele (avg 95 ypg) was held to just 38 (2.5). Tulane is off a 56-7 loss at Tulsa (we had a 3H LPS on Tulsa) and the Wave has now lost 7 in a row SU (2-5 ATS). They were outgained 593-232 and all’d 489 rush yds! TU’s D has all’d at least 500 yds in each of the L3W and is allowing 37 ppg in conf play. QB Hall should feel more comfortable with another week of practice and the Tigers’ postseason lives are on the line, so expect the Tigers to extend Tulane’s losing streak to 8 and push their ATS losing streak to 4 in a row.
Nevada 34 LOUISIANA TECH 23 - UN has won the L/3 SU/ATS by an avg of 31 ppg (avg cover 22 ppg). The fav is 4-0 SU/ATS and the HT is 3-1 SU/ATS. These two have avg 72 ppg & have gone over the ttl in 5 of the L/7. This game will pit both teams’ strengths & weaknesses against one another. UN has the edge on off (#14-89) with the “Pistol” firing on all cylinders. It boasts the #1 rush off (309 ypg), #6 overall off (512 ypg) & #13 scoring off (38.1 ppg) in the NCAA, spearheaded by the running of QB Kaepernick & RB Taua. Kaepernick is avg 189 ypg (54%) with a 15-4 ratio to go along with 1,087 yds rush (#2 WAC) & 16 TD, while Taua leads the WAC with 1,359 yds (7.1) & 13 TD. UN will being going up against LT’s #11 rush D all’g 100 ypg. The Bulldogs have a solid running attack themselves avg 196 ypg led by RB Porter (1036 yds, 5.5, 7 TD) & Jackson (565, 4.4, 7 TD), but they will be facing a UN rush D all’g just 65 ypg. LT’s pass off (#107) avg just 148 ypg & QB Jenkins is avg just 84 ypg (54%) with a 5-3 ratio, but Tech is 5-1 with him as the starter. LT entered LW as 1 of 2 tms (VT) without a TD pass to a WR & ended that drought when Livas (34 rec, 15.3) hauled in a 68 yd gm-winning TD. UN’s pass D ranks last (#120) all’g 327 ypg & gave up 416 yds to Boise LW. The Wolf Pack have had its way with the Bulldogs the L/2Y. LY UN had a 641-228 yd edge (237-55 edge on the ground) & built a 42-3 lead in a 49-10 (-7) victory. In ‘06 UN shutout LT 42-0 (-17’). Expect a much closer contest this time around.
New Mexico St 37 UTAH ST 34 - Utah St leads the series 13-4 ATS, incl 11-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in Logan. USt is 4-0 ATS in its L/4 HG’s & has covered by an avg of 16 ppg. The host is 0-3 SU/ATS since becoming WAC foes in ‘05. The dog has thrived in this series going 7-2 SU/ATS. These two are nearly even on off (NMSU #83-96) & def (USU #102-103) but USt has the edge on ST (#49-83). USt QB Borel is avg 144 ypg (56%) with an 11-10 ratio & his confidence continues to grow. Borel also leads the tm in rushing with 579 yds (3.6) & will face a NMSt rush D ranked #114 in the NCAA all’g 218 ypg on the ground. NMSt QB Holbrook is avg 291 ypg (68%) with a 25-13 ratio & is #10 in the NCAA in ttl passing yds (#5 passing ypg) & will be going up against a USt pass D ranked #104 in the NCAA allowing 259 ypg through the air. Holbrook hit 45-60 for a season-high 486 yds & 4 TD LW but it wasn’t enough to keep NMSt from its 6th consecutive loss although the Ags have covered their L/2 (both as 3H LPS for us). WR’s Williams (84 rec, 14.9, 9 TD) & Harris (72 rec, 9.2, 3 TD) are #1 & #2 in rec per game in the WAC, respectively. Williams (10 rec for 189 yds LW) is a threat anytime he touches the ball with 11 ttl TD’s (9 rec, 1 PR, 1 KR) with 5 TD’s covering 80+ yds & 9 of his TD’s have come in the L/6 gms. USt is coming off a bye & is playing its FHG while NMSt is playing for the 13th consecutive wk. Both tms are very much in need of a win. This is the final game for USt HC Guy as he was fired LW & some speculate this could also be NMSt HC Mumme’s last game as well.
Southern Miss 30 SMU 23 - LY SMiss scored 21 2Q pts and SMU never threatened in a 28-7 S Miss win with the Mustangs only score coming late in the 4Q. This is the 1st trip to Dallas in conf play for SM with both teams coming in off a bye. SM defeated EC 21-3 the last time out and now have 3 SU/ATS wins in row. The Eagles have been to 6 straight bowl games and have not had a losing ssn S/’93 and at 5-6 a victory would keep both streaks alive. The D has really come on as of late, all’g just 7.7 ppg the L/3 conf gms, after all’g 39 ppg the first 4 in CUSA. The off is led by rFr QB Davis who is avg 240 ypg (57%) with a 19-7 ratio and also has 9 rush TD’s. His favorite target is true Fr Brown (PS#7) who has 1,057 yds (16.8) and 12 TD’s, including a school record 97 ydr vs EC. RB Fletcher is #9 in NCAA avg 118 ypg and has 1,176 yds (6.4) and 8 TD’s. SMU lost 36-10 at UTEP last time out and has now lost 20 in a row (8-11-1 ATS) to IA tms. QB Mitchell (238, 58%, 23-21 ratio) should be healthy here after missing parts of the L/2 (shoulder), but will be without his top 2 rec’s, Sanders (958, 14.3, 9 TD) and Robinson(1047, 17.7, 11 TD), who were suspended for the final 2 gms. SMiss is chasing that elusive 6th win, but SMU is 4-1 ATS in FHG’s, so the Mustangs should be competitive.
Oklahoma 45 OKLAHOMA ST 38 - 103rd Bedlam. LY OU rolled 49-17 (-13’) w/a 487-299 yd edge. Gundy was 0-4 SU vs OU as OSU’s starting QB from 1986-‘89 (0-7 combined as QB/HC). HT is 8-1-1 ATS with OU’s last cover in Stillwater in ‘96. OSU is off a bye and have gone a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS at Boone Pickens TY. The Cowboys are 10-4-2 ATS in home finales. QB Robinson is avg 226 ypg (67%) with a 21-7 ratio (#3 NCAA pass eff). WR Bryant has 68 rec (18.0). RB Hunter is the B12’s leading rusher with 1,434 yds (6.8), but was banged up L/gm. OU (10-1 SU & 8-2 ATS w/4 straight covers) crushed TT LW (up 52-7 mid 3Q w/a 219 yd edge) and the Sooners have started out fast TY outscoring foes 208-27 in the 1Q. QB Bradford is avg 337 ypg (68%) with a 42-6 ratio (#2 NCAA pass eff). The Cowboys are ranked #50 in our pass eff def all’g 259 ypg (62%) with a 23-11 ratio while the Sooners come in at #8 (249 ypg, 54%, 14-14). Both offenses are potent (OU#1, OSU#8) but OU has the def edge (#14-40). OSU does have a huge ST (#20-113) advantage (OU has all’d a KR TD to 3 tms). OU has scored 35+ on every opp this ssn (50+ 7x’s & 62+ the L3W!) but the def has struggled (3 key inj’s in front 7) all’g 31 ppg & 430 ypg the L/6. OSU has dropped 2 straight ATS after a 9-0 start, but has scored 55+ in five HG’s TY (53 ppg) outgaining foes by 227 ypg. This in-state rivalry is for bragging rights & recruiting purposes and with its dominant performance LW, OU is back in not only the B12 South Title picture, but also the National Title chase.
GEORGIA 34 Georgia Tech 24 - LY UGA beat GT 31-17 & HC Gailey was fired as he could not defeat UGA in his tenure at GT. UGA is trying for a record 8th straight win in this series (5-1-1 ATS). The visitor is 8-2 ATS. Lately this has been much more of a rivalry for GT than for UGA as UGA already has their SEC rivals Florida, Tenn and Aub. UGA is off a bye giving them an extra wk to prepare for the option and get healthier after their grueling 4 gm road stretch (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Bulldogs are playing at home for the first time in over a month (Oct 25). GT is off a huge 41-23 Thurs night PPH win over Miami in which they had 472 rush yds (2nd most ever all’d by UM). GT could have the ACC Title game on deck. UGA is 1-3 ATS as a HF TY and is on a 1-6 ATS run overall. GT is 3-1 ATS on the road TY incl 2 outright upsets as a road dog & HC Johnson is on a 14-3 run as an AD. GT’s #40 offense is led by RB Dwyer (1184, 7.0) who had 128 yds, 2 TD in the 1H vs UM before leaving with a knee inj (CS). GT QB Nesbitt is avg 54 pass ypg (48%) with a 2-3 ratio and has 591 rush (4.3). UGA’s #13 off features RB Moreno who has 1,244 (5.9) and QB Stafford who leads the SEC avg 255 ypg (61%) with a 17-8 ratio. UGA’s #19 D hasn’t faced an option offense recently apart from facing WV’s Pat White in the ‘05 Sugar Bowl (382 rush all’d), but has faced mobile QB’s like Tebow, UK QB Cobb, Aub QB Burns TY (178 ypg rush in those 3). UGA is allowing 144 rush ypg (3.8) overall TY. GT’s #42 D ranks #49 in our pass D rankings allowing only 177 ypg (59%) with a 14-17 ratio but hasn’t faced a QB of this caliber.
MARSHALL 37 Tulsa 34 - Last year Tulsa (-13’) built a 31-17 HT lead as QB Smith threw for 262 1H yds. The 370 total 1H yds were a season high but up 38-24 they fumbled at the MU27 and Marshall drove for a backdoor TD with 1:18 left (Tulsa 578-444). First trip to Huntington for Tulsa. TU clinches the CUSA West with a win and a Houston loss after beating Tulane 56-7 LW. The Hurricane outgained an overmatched Tulane team 593-232 with a season high 489 rush yds. RB Adams ran for a school-record 323 yds (9.8) and now has 1,073 (6.3) on the year. QB Johnson only threw for 104 yds, but is still #1 in NCAA in pass eff, avg 305 (66%) with a 40-13 ratio. WR Marion leads the tm with 962 yds (27.5!) and 8 TD’s. Marshall lost 35-10 at Rice LW and at 4-7 has no shot at a bowl. The Herd have now lost 6 of 7 (2-5 ATS) and played with little emotion in the 2H LW. The O is avg just 13.3 ppg the L/3 and they are avg just 19.2 on the year. Tulsa is playing for a possible CUSA West Title and bowl position, while the Herd will be home for the holidays yet again (last bowl ‘04), but is 4-0 ATS at home vs CUSA West teams including an upset of Houston TY.
ALABAMA 23 Auburn 13 - Over the L/7Y (incl 6 wins) Aub has been outgained vs Bama by 26 total yds. The Tide hasn’t scored a 1Q TD in the Iron Bowl since ‘96 & has lost 6 straight (2-4 ATS). Those 6 Aub wins have been by just 7.7 ppg. The HT is 4-9 ATS in the series. Tuberville is 5-1 ATS as a road dog vs ranked tms since ‘04 with 3 outright upsets in that span while Bama is 5-17 as a HF. Bama has a chance to go undefeated in the reg ssn for the 1st time since ‘94, but standing in their way is their fiercest rival that needs to win in order to go to a bowl. An Aub loss would mean their first losing ssn since Tuberville’s first year (‘99) and a win over the #1 tm in the country, which just happens to be their biggest rival, could save Tuberville’s job. Aub’s #84 offense is gradually moving back to the run-first days of old and QB Burns has avg 185 pass ypg and 72 rush ypg the L/4. Aub’s #24 defense has been banged up the last several gms and has allowed 207 rush ypg (5.4) the L4 vs IA tms. Bama’s ground-based off is #27 led by RB Coffee (1091, 6.1) with QB Wilson only avg 161 ypg (59%) with an 8-5 ratio. Bama’s #5 def has held opps to 75 ypg rush (2.8) but did allow 201 rush (4.4) to LSU. Bama is playing with BCS pressure, and has Florida for the SEC Title on deck, but Saban won’t let them think beyond ending this streak. With a lot on the line for both tms, this could be closer than expected.
Florida 42 FLORIDA ST 17 - Florida St has dropped 4 in a row SU (avg 30-12) in the series and last year’s 45-12 loss was the worst FSU defeat S/‘83 when the Gators won 53-14. UF rushed for a season high 279 yds vs FSU. The HT is 15-5 ATS (covered L/3). FSU has only been a HD twice in the L7Y (2-0) and UF is on a 5-0 ATS run as an AF. Since UF’s 1 pt loss to Ole Miss, the Gators have won 7 in a row (6-0 ATS) by an avg of 53-12. Tebow leads UF’s #2 off and has stepped it up since the loss and is now avg 192 ypg (66%) with a 22-2 ratio and 427 rush (3.5) and is back in the Heisman race. UF is avg 230 rush ypg (6.1) but FSU’s #21 D is only allowing 110 rush ypg (3.3) but ranks #57 in our pass D rankings as they haven’t faced a strong pass attack all year. UF’s #7 D faces FSU’s #23 off led by QB Ponder who is avg 159 ypg (56%) with a 12-11 ratio. FSU is off a convincing 37-3 win over MD and UF has the SEC Title gm on deck, but FSU may also make the ACC Title gm if BC loses to MD. UF is clearly the better team and should continue their dominating ways even with Alabama on deck.
TENNESSEE 24 Kentucky 10 - UK has lost 23 in a row to UT which is the longest series losing streak in the NCAA. LY UK lost 52-50 in 4 OT’s despite outgaining the Vols 564-520 with a 37-24 FD edge. The Vols face their former OC Sanders (now UK QB coach & recruiting coordinator). In ‘06 here UK had a 410-336 yd edge but came up short 17-12 (+20’). UK is 17-7 ATS off a bye and the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the series. UT is 12-4 ATS vs UK. This is the 4th SEC opp that Tenn has faced TY that has been off a bye (UT is 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS vs FL, UGA & SC). This gm has been designated as “Phil Fulmer Day” and after a wk to regroup from Fulmer’s emotional dismissal, Tenn returned to form LW with their 20-10 win over Vandy which gave us a 3H College Totals Play Winner on the Under. UT’s inconsistent QB play forced them to keep it on the ground and they produced 222 rush yds (4.4) and SS Berry got another IR TD LW (7 int on yr). UT & UK have both struggled on off TY with UK having a slight edge (#74-85) behind true frosh QB Cobb (519 pass, 52%, 2-5 ratio, 294 rush, 4.3). UT has a large edge on D (#9-58), but UK has the edge on ST’s (#31-92). UT is 2-11-1 as an SEC HF & UK is 3-1 as an AD. UK needs to win to have a chance to go to a bigger bowl (Music City L/2Y), but it seems that Tenn has pulled it together and will go all-out to send Fulmer out on a winning note. Don’t expect a lot of points in this one.
UCF 30 Uab 13 - UCF is 5-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the series with the avg win 32-19. LY UAB cut the deficit to 38-31 but didn’t rec the onside kick & allowed a 41 yd TD run w/1:17 left in a 45-31 loss (+20’ at home). The Blazers are off a 17-13 home loss (+6’) to E Carolina and are on a modest 2-0 ATS run. QB Webb is avg 193 ypg (58%) with a 10-16 ratio and also leads tm with 941 rush yds. UCF has won 2 straight (2-0 ATS) after being eliminated from postseason contention. The Knights got a 26 yd FR TD and another TD was setup by a blk’d punt in their 28-21 (+5) win at Memphis. The Knights were outgained 305-194 and are still last in NCAA avg just 231 ypg. The Knights D has been outstanding, all’g just 16ppg the L/4 and they are #6 in NCAA with 18 int. Neither team has much to play for, but expect UCF to send out its seniors, who have played in two CUSA Title gms (winning LY), with a home win.
OREGON ST 30 Oregon 27 - 112th meeting of the “Civil War.” After a game-winning FG on the last play of regulation in Tucson LW, the Beavers are one win away from a Rose Bowl berth. Injuries will be the storyline here as bkup QB Canfield (223 ypg, 67%, 3-1 ratio in 2 sts) made his 2nd start of the ssn for starter Moevao (219 ypg, 62%, 14-9 ratio) who missed LW while P10 leading rusher Jacquizz Rodgers (1253 rush yds, 4.8, 11 TD) went out early on w/a bad shoulder (CS). The HT in this series had won 10 straight but LY UO mismanaged the clock & missed a FG att in the final seconds & lost in 2 OT’s as they were down to their 4th & 5th string QB’s in Eugene. The Ducks also missed a FG on the last play in ‘06 here & lost 30-28 (+3) marking the closest margin of victory in this matchup S/’95 (7 wins by DD’s in the L/11Y). The Ducks come into Corvallis off a bye (15-4 ATS) & almost off a monumental loss to AZ as the nearly blew a 45-17 HT lead winning by 10 on a late TD run. QB Masoli had his best game as a starter (387 ttl yds, 5 ttl TD’s). UO is just 6-14 ATS over the past 2 decades vs OSU & while the Beavs are 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in home finales, this one may go down to the final minutes again.
South Carolina 21 CLEMSON 17 - Clemson is 9-2 SU in the series and LY hit a 35 yd FG with no time left for a 23-21 road win that kept SCar out of a bowl. SC is 4-2 as an AF under Spurrier and CU is 2-4 ATS at home TY. The last three meetings have been decided by a total of 9 points. Spurrier has been rotating QB’s the last 2 gms, but said he plans to go with 1 QB vs Clemson and hinted that it could be Smelley. On the season, Smelley is avg 153 ypg (59%) with an 11-11 ratio. WR Cook has 34 rec (16.1) and RB Davis has 495 rush yds (3.5). CU does have the offensive edge (#54-71) but SC has a slight defensive (#11-16) and solid schedule edge (#11-58). Clemson is 1-4 TY when held to 125 rush yds or less but picked up the W last week 13-3 over Virginia. The Tigers had just 192 ttl yards vs the Cavs as all of their points were set up by VA TO’s. RB’s Davis has 634 rush yds (4.7) and Spiller 524 (5.6). QB Harper is avg 200 ypg (63%) with a 10-12 ratio. WR Kelly has 57 rec (10.0). With a win here, SC will be elig for its 1st NY’s bowl under Spurrier but Clemson needs a win just to become bowl elig.
USC 34 Notre Dame 10 - Making his 2nd career start QB Sanchez threw for 4 TD’s as USC got their largest margin of victory ever (79 yrs) vs ND in ‘07, 38-0 w/a 462-165 yd edge. USC is 9-3 ATS in the series with Carroll 3-0 SU/ATS at home (43-16 avg margin). The Trojans come in off their 3rd bye of the yr (18-6 ATS under Carroll; 1-1 TY) after their 45-23 win over Stanford as the Cardinal threw an 18 yd TD pass on gm’s last play. Sanchez is #10 NCAA pass eff avg 226 ypg (65%) with a 26-7 ratio. Trojans have our #1 D which leads the NCAA in pass & scoring D (8.3 ppg). They are #4 in pass eff D allowing 132 ypg (53%) with a 3-14 ratio. The Irish blew a DD lead for the 3rd time TY in a 24-23 loss to Syracuse. ND failed to take advantage of 2 partially blk’d P’s & a fmbl which had them starting drives on the Orange 23, 21 & 5 in the 3Q but produced just 3 pts. QB Clausen avg 248 ypg (60%) with a 20-15 ratio but the run game has floundered (#91 NCAA-119 ypg). Irish are #24 pass eff D (180 ypg, 51%, 10-10 ratio) but haven’t taken on an offense of this caliber (highest rated opp NCAA ttl off-Purdue #50). The Irish will be without frosh record-setter WR Floyd (knee-46,15.3) & LB B Smith (53 tkl) and their TO margin on the road TY is -16. Weis’ seat is now hotter than the “Sun,” which ironically is the Irish’s likely bowl destination.
HAWAII 38 Washington St 17 - WSU will finish their reg season vs a tm other than UW for just the 3rd time S/‘88 (2-0 SU/ATS) topping off a season that they want to soon forget. They have actually been on the winning side of 3 straight covers incl a 2OT win at home LW vs the equally pitiful Huskies in the “Apple Cup” as QB Lopina led WSU on a late drive to tie it at the end of regulation but he has failed to throw a TD pass in his 8 gms TY (0-10 ratio). The Cougs did win their last visit to the Islands 22-14 (-5) in ‘99 against the Warriors. UH had done well vs BCS teams in late season HG’s, but has dropped 4 in a row ATS incl a loss to Oreg St in ‘06 & a late come-from-behind win vs Washington LY. After a loss in Corvallis to the Beavers in Sept, Hawaii has now failed to cover 8 straight regular ssn gms vs the P10. The Warriors look like they’ve found some consistency at the QB position as Alexander threw for a career-best 3 TD’s (264 yds) in their win vs ID. While WSU has gone 9-4 ATS on the road vs non-conf, the Warriors are accepting this as a must-win game (play 13 & need 7 wins) to reach a bowl for the 6th time in 7 ssns as they don’t want to be in must-win mode next week when BCS-hopeful Cincy comes to town.
Arkansas St 37 NORTH TEXAS 23 - In the 1st 4 yrs of SBC play, NT dominated ASU (4-0), but the Red Wolves have won the L/3. LY ASU trailed 21-0 at one point, but scored on a 27 yd pass w/:02 left for the win. NT is 12-3 SU in home finales. ASU is off 28-14 win over FAU outgaining them 482-259 (203-63). ASU QB Leonard is avg 217 ypg (55%) with an 8-3 ratio vs SBC foes. This is new territory for ASU as this is their first as a DD AF and they are 1-3 as DD fav (0-2 as AF TY). ASU is going up against the NCAA’s worst def and is avg 209 rush ypg. NT is off 52-13 loss to MT being outgained 489-364 and outscored 28-0 in 2Q. They are 0-4 as HD TY with an avg loss of 50-21 in those. NT QB Vizza is avg 265 ypg (63%) with a 6-9 ratio vs SBC foes while WR Fitzgerald has 62 rec (10.9). ASU still has their hopes up for a winning ssn and a possible bowl invitation but are 1-7 as AF (only cover in 2005) while NT is 11-4 SU and 9-3 ATS S/’93 in ssn finales.
Florida Atlantic 27 FIU 17 - Miami Dolphin Stadium. Each year these in-state schools play in the “Shula Bowl” with FAU 5-1 SU (avg win 18 ppg). LY QB Smith was 20 of 30 for 330 yds & 4 TD’s as they led 35-3 (-10’). QB McCall replaced an injured Younger & led FIU to a season high 20 4Q pts making it a respectable 55-23. FAU is off 28-14 loss to Ark St being outgained 482-259 (203-63 rush). FAU had 23:22 TOP compared to ASU’s 36:38. FAU Smith is avg 247 ypg (58%) with a 12-8 ratio vs SBC foes while WR Gent has 27 rec (14.4). FIU is off a 31-27 loss to ULM being outgained 363-329 but did outscore ULM 24-10 in 2H with RB Reams becoming the 1st FIU runner this ssn to reach the 100 yd mark. QB McCall is avg 228 ypg (53%) with a 9-3 ratio vs SBC while frosh WR Hilton has 30 rec (24.4). FAU had avg’d 212 rush ypg in 4 gms prior to LW (63) and FIU is giving up 175 yd rush to SBC foes TY. While FIU has the huge ST’s edge (#28-98), FAU needs a win here to become bowl eligible and has the offensive edge (#77-116).
Wednesday, December 3rd
Middle Tenn at ULL - ULL is 4-1 SU in the series and last year was +13’ on the road but rolled up a dominating 528-256 yard edge and won 34-24. That was the FIFTH straight outright upset win in the series! In ‘06 here MT was a dog for the only time in the last 5 years and pulled the upset 34-20 (+3).
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
4*NY Giants over WASHINGTON - WAS was in a bad spot in the 1st meeting with a rookie HC, a young QB in a new system & on the road vs a division rival that was celebrating its Super Bowl win on National TV. The Giants won 16-7 as a 4.5 pt HF but it should have been much worse (354-209 yd edge) as they settled for 1 TD & 3 FG’s on their 1st 4 drives which went inside the WAS 30. The Giants are 14-2 ATS on the road incl playoffs. WAS is 5-11-1 ATS at home. There are 7 common foes with the Giants going 6-1 SU & ATS with a 380-278 yd edge & 33-20 avg score. WAS is 5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS with a 331-264 yd edge & 18-18 avg score. The Giants have a big advantage with a healthier & deeper RB unit that outrushed the common foes 189 (5.4) to 89 (3.9) vs WAS beat up RB unit headed by Portis who admitted before the SEA game that he was only at 75%. WAS also saw DE Carter their best pass rusher taken off the field & his status is unknown. The Giants continue to play at a dominant level & get another win vs a quality foe here. FORECAST: NY Giants 24 WASHINGTON 13
3*NEW ENGLAND over Pittsburgh - NE dominated PIT 34-13 as a 10.5 pt HF LY after a member of the PIT defense guaranteed a win vs the Patriots. PIT tried to slow down the NE offense with a 181 (5.7) to 22 (2.4) rush edge but NE had 399 yds passing (70%) with a 4-0 ratio. PIT has 3 extra days to gameplan & heal as RB Parker (knee), WR Holmes (concussion) & DE Keisel (knee) were KO’d LW. This is PIT’s 1st road game in 3 Wks after losing to IND by 4 (-3 TO’s), beating SD by 1 despite a 410-213 yd edge in favorable weather (albeit a bad official call cost them) & was slow starters vs a CIN team without 7 starters. While PIT does have extra rest but the offense continues to struggle scoring points avg just 19 ppg the L5W going 1-4 ATS in that span. The run game has produced just 3.2 ypc the L5 games & now try to move against a NE squad that is allowing just 3.2 ypc TY & held MIA’s #9 rush offense just 62 yds (3.3) LW. The Patriots offense is in “Brady like” mode as they’ve topped 500+ yds in B2B weeks for the first time in their history. Moss was back in his productive mode with 125 yds (15.6) LW & Welker added 120 yds (15.0) as Cassell finished with a career high (415 yds 70% 3-1). While the PIT defense has been exceptional look for NE to stay motivated off a previous home loss to the Jets.FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 Pittsburgh 20
2*TAMPA BAY over New Orleans - The Saints beat the Bucs 24-20 as a 3 pt HF in the season opener TY & improved to 3-7 ATS vs TB. NO had a 438-352 yd edge as Brees shredded the TB defense with 343 yds passing (72%) with a 3-1 ratio. TB punted on 7 of their first 8 drives (7 FD 120 yds) & only converted two 3rd Dns on the day. NO is off LW’s MNF game vs GB & it’s not known if RB Bush returned or if RB Deuce or DE Smith will be susp here. TB is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home TY with a 344-217 yd edge & 24-11 avg score. TB #1 RB Graham (563 yds 4.3) who had sacrificed some of his carries to fill in at FB for 3 games was lost to an ankle sprain & that will hurt their #30 red zone offense. This is NO’s 5th road game in 7 Wks & they are only 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road with the only SU win being vs KC. NO only has a 397-370 yd edge with a 29-23 scoring deficit in those games. Not including Wk 1 NO is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs .500 or better teams with a 31-22 losing margin while TB is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS vs .500 or better teams TY with a 21-14 avg score. TB’s red zone issues are a concern here esp vs a very potent NO team but the Saints defense is very beat up & travelling on a short week. The home team is the play here in a lower scoring game. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 20 New Orleans 10
2*Tennessee over DETROIT - Thanksgiving. DET is the 13th team in NFL history to start a season 0-11 & get an angry Titans team that was dominated at home by the Jets. The Lions have lost their L4 Thanksgiving games SU & ATS by a 33-13 avg score. TEN has all the edges here with the #23 & #7 units (+11 TO’s) vs DET’s #28 & #31 units (-7 TO’s). TEN is 15-4-1 ATS on the road, 8-2 ATS vs a foe with a losing record while DET is 6-0 ATS as a DD dog (3-0 TY). DET hasn’t sold out its L3 HG’s & could be blacked out here. While TEN’s CB’s are a little thin (only 2 healthy CB’s LW) due to injury TEN’s #8 pass defense has a 7-16 ratio & is backed up by the #6 pass rush vs DET’s OL that is 32nd in sacks allowed. TEN was outgained 409-281 LW at home & was -21:30 TOP. Culpepper (144 ypg 51% 2-5 L3W) was benched LW for poor play after blowing a 17-0 lead but reinserted after QB Stanton was KO’d with a concussion. DET was outgained 245-93 over the final 3Q allowing 38 unanswered pts & once again could be without both starting DE’s & C Raiola for the 3rd Wk. LW’s loss was the worst thing that could have happened for DET as they will now have the full focus of the Titans on a national stage who are 8-2 ATS after a SU loss. FORECAST: Tennessee 34 DETROIT 10
OTHER GAMES
DALLAS 31 Seattle 17 - DAL is 5-2 ATS on Thanksgiving winning the L2 by a 36-7 margin. This is the 2nd Thursday game the Seahawks have played under Holmgren losing 24-14 as a 9.5 pt HF in 2006. DAL has the #10 & #8 units (-6 TO’s) vs SEA’s #31 & #28 units (-4 TO’s). DAL comes into the game with lots of momentum while SEA just had an emotional game vs former QB Coach Jim Zorn. DAL is 3-7 ATS as a DD fav under Phillips while SEA is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more under Holmgren. DAL has won the yardage battle in 7 of 8 games with Romo under center with a 392-292 yd edge & 28-22 avg score. After being outgained 154-25 in the 1Q vs SF, DAL went 383-150 over the final 3Q. SEA has been outgained in 5 of 6 games with Hasselbeck at the helm by a 385-207 margin & outscored 28-20. Both teams have pass defense issues (DAL #12 15-5 ratio SEA #31 16-5 ratio) but SEA lost DE Kerney for the year and 13 of their 26 sacks have come in 2 games vs SF TY. DAL has a huge edge with Owens (6-3 218), Williams (6-3 211) & Crayton (6-0 203) vs a SEA secondary with only 1 CB above 5-11. Look for DAL to use their size advantages to wear down SEA & make big plays in the 2H to get the win. Turkey Day Play: DALLAS
PHILADELPHIA 27 Arizona 24 - ARZ is off a potential playoff preview vs the Giants while PHI lost a must win game vs BAL in an embarrassing fashion. ARZ is 8-16-1 ATS in EST games & 10-21 ATS as a non-div dog. PHI is 9-5 ATS as a non-div fav. Poor starts have killed PHI as they have generated 7 pts & a total of 9 FD in 1st Q of the L5W. McNabb simply hasn’t gotten into a rhythm with 113 yds (35%) 0-1 & a 33.1 QBR in the 1Q over the L5W. PHI was dominated in LW’s loss to BAL as their only score came on a 100 yd KR for a TD. McNabb was benched after a horrible 1H (59 yds 44% 0-2) but Kolb was just as bad in the 2H (73 yds 44% 0-2). Warner (326 ypg 71% 13-4 since Jets) will face a PHI secondary that has given up a 6-1 ratio the L4W. ARZ also benefits from having faced the same style of zone blitzing defense that DC Johnson runs just LW vs the Giants. ARZ has outgained foes 410-294 on the road TY (3-3 SU & 3-2-1 ATS) & put up 371 yds vs the Giants. PHI is in turmoil right now after the debacles of the L3W & both teams will likely get a very hostile reaction from the crowd here. While Reid will likely give McNabb one more shot here we’ll side with the Over for now & wait to see if RB Westbrook will be available before choosing a side.
Turkey Day Play: OVER
NY JETS 34 Denver 27 - The Jets are off B2B marquee victories vs NE & TEN while DEN is off 3 straight games (2-1 SU & ATS) vs inexperienced 1st or 2nd year QB’s backed up by the #26, #24 & #25 defenses. DEN now makes a huge jump vs Favre (216 ypg 75% 5-1 L3W) who is finally playing within the Jets system. The Jets are 11-6-1 ATS as a HF & DEN is 3-8 ATS as an AD. The Jets are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS at home with a 335-286 yd edge (+5 TO’s). Favre gets to face the #25 pass defense with a 15-4 ratio that is 22nd in sacks by (20). RB Jones has avg’d 116 ypg (4.2) the L3W & gets a DEN defense that just gave up 158 yds rushing (3.9) to OAK. After 2 solid games vs CLE & ATL Cutler was tripped up by OAK as he only had 204 yds passing (43%) with an 0-1 ratio with a season low 49.8 QBR. The Jets #26 pass defense is vulnerable with a 15-9 ratio but they are helped out by the #3 pass rush (35 sacks). The Jets will be reading a lot of press clippings about how their big FA spending is coming thru & that signing Favre has paid off by taking over the AFC Eas. We’ll call for the Jets to win by 7 for now as we want to see how the line shakes out with the Jets off a big win & DEN off their big loss.
BUFFALO 34 San Francisco 20 - This is the 3rd road game in 4 Wks for SF who is 3-27 SU in games starting at 1:00 EST & 8-24-1 ATS away in the EST. BUF is 6-2 ATS hosting an NFC foe. These teams are fairly equal to each other with the Bills having the #19 & #17 units (-4 TO’s) vs the 49ers #22 & #23 units (-13 TO’s) & both have top 5 special teams units. BUF is off a huge “get right” game vs KC as Edwards had 3 yds passing (75%) with a 2-0 ratio vs the #32 defense. He now gets to face a SF defense that imploded after a strong 1Q allowing 388 yds to DAL. RB Gore was held to just 32 total yds (1.6) & while BUF is allowing
114 ypg rush (4.3) they beat STL 31-14 who still incorporates big chunks of the Martz philosophy. SF is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS TY vs .500 or better teams losing by an avg score of 30-20 TY. BUF is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS vs teams .500 or worse TY with a 30-20 score. With both teams being fairly close statistically its the small edges of BUF at home (upper 30’s, 40% snow showers forecast), SF’s #29 pass defense with a 12-3 ratio & just 6 sacks the L6W on a long flight East off a tough road game which gives the Bills the call here.
Carolina 28 GREEN BAY 27 - GB could be a little worn down here as they are off TEN, MIN, CHI & a possible
MNF shootout vs NO. CAR comes in having struggled to beat OAK & DET & Delhomme had a tough game vs ATL LW. Delhomme only had 83 yds (47%) in the 1H as CAR was looking up at a 17-3 deficit & behind 202-99 in yards. GB beat the Panthers 31-17 LY as a 9.5 pt HF but CAR was starting Testaverde & WR Smith (48 rec 17.8 TY) was out with a shin injury. GB had a 28-3 lead mid-3Q before losing interest & letting CAR make the game respectable. GB has a stout secondary as their #3 pass defense has an 11-16 ratio & 6 TD’s returned for int (#1 NFL). Rodgers has passed for 215 ypg (66%) with a 6-2 ratio the L5W as his dislocated shoulder has healed. GB is also getting improved play from RB Grant who has 103 ypg (4.5) the L4W. GB’s main weakness is that they give up 147 ypg rushing (4.9) which plays to CAR’s #6 rush offense that avg 134 ypg (4.4). Both teams are play on & strong playoff contenders but with GB on a short week here we’ll side with the dog with a power rushing game & #11 defense.
Miami 31 ST LOUIS 17 - Both teams are moving in different directions with MIA having the #8 & #18 units (+1 TO’s) vs STL having the #30 & #29 units (-11 TO’s) the L4W. While MIA has the worst special teams unit in the NFL STL went into LW’s game with the #32 red zone offense & #30 red zone defense. STL will likely be without LT Pace, QB Bulger (concussion) & RB Jackson’s (STL 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS w/o him) status is uncertain after a public spat with Haslett over his TC holdout. This is MIA’s 1st AF role since Thanksgiving 2006 & MIA is 1-4-1 ATS vs the NFC. STL is 1-7-1 ATS vs the AFC. STL is back to playing at the same level before Haslett took over. In STL first 4 games TY they went 0-4 SU & ATS being outgained 412-247 (-3 TO’s) losing by a 37-11 avg score. In their L4 games they have gone 0-4 SU & ATS being outgained 388-261 (-11 TO’s) losing by a 36-9 margin. STL has clearly quit on the season & now gets a MIA team that earned 392 yds & 28 pts vs NE LW. Pennington has cooled a bit the L4W (251 ypg 61% 4-3) but should fare well vs the #19 pass defense with a 16-6 ratio that is #32 with a 8.5 ypa. MIA remains in the playoff hunt for the AFC & should make short work of a STL team that has been outscored 123-13 in the 1H of the L4 games.
Baltimore 17 CINCINNATI 9 - BAL beat CIN 17-10 as a 1.5 pt HD to open up the season. BAL had a 358-154 yd edge as they played a simplified gameplan to protect Flacco who had just gotten the #1 spot by default 10 days price. BAL had a 229 (5.0) to 65 (2.8) yd edge & CIN quit on the game when Flacco rushed for a 38 yd TD to end the 3Q. BAL is 1-4 ATS as a div AF. CIN is 2-5 ATS as a div dog. Any momentum CIN had built after 2 good games vs JAX & PHI came to a crashing halt vs PIT. CIN went into the game without 7 starters including WR Johnson (41 rec, 9.3) who was susp 1 game by the coaching staff & has been outgained 340-196 in 4 div games (0-4 ATS). BAL is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in div play with a 325-209 yd edge. After getting pushed around by the Giants the BAL defense was dominant LW as they forced McNabb out of the game holding him to 59 yds passing (44%) with an 0-2 ratio. They forced 5 total TO’s returning an int 108 yds for a TD, blocked a punt for a safety, had 2 sacks & held Westbrook to 34 total yds (2.1). While CIN should get its starting LT, LG & #3 OT back they don’t have the muscle on either side of the trenches & BAL is the play.
Indianapolis 24 CLEVELAND 23 - This is a huge flat spot for the Colts who are off 5 straight games vs probable playoff teams, div rival HOU who always plays them tough & a long SNF road game vs SD. LY CLE went 7-0 SU & ATS at home after the opening PIT loss with a 390-351 yd edge (+6 TO’s) & 30-20 avg score. TY CLE is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS at home & has been outgained 420-297 (-3 TO’s) & outscored 23-19 minus the NYG MNF game. CLE pulled QB Quinn after he had 94 yds (44%) with an 0-2 ratio & WR Edwards (40 rec, 16.5) dropped 4 balls bringing him to 17 on the year (#1 NFL). CLE couldn’t recover from 5 TO’s LW which set up 6 pts by HOU. They also fizzled in the red zone as on 4 drives inside the HOU 21 they had 2 FG’s, 1 missed FG & an int. CLE is 12-5 ATS as a dog while IND is 9-5 ATS as a non-div AF. IND has the #11 & #16 units (+4 TO’s) the L4W vs CLE’s #22 & #32 units (-1 TO’s) in the span. Manning has gotten his timing in the passing game back over the L3W with 271 ypg (63%) and a 7-0 ratio (104.0 QBR). He now faces CLE’s #28 pass defense which has a decent 14-15 ratio but only has 15 sacks (29th). CLE is a very inconsistent team TY & wins the games they have no right to show up (NYG, JAX, BUF) but loses the ones they should (DEN & HOU). We’ll call for IND to win by 1 & see if FS Sanders returns here & wait for the line.
Atlanta 28 SAN DIEGO 27 - SD is off LW’s must win vs IND & it’s not known if they managed to keep their season afloat. ATL bounced back from their loss vs DEN by beating CAR 45-28 with 28 4Q pts. They are rested coming off 3 straight home games & RB Turner (99 ypg, 4.3) returns to SD. QB Ryan is off another solid performance (259 yds 63%) & in ATL’s 7 wins he’s passed for over 61% with only ONE int while in his 4 losses he’s passed for only 51% (never topping 61%) with 5 int. SD #32 pass defense has been a huge disappointment TY & L4W they’ve allowed 382 ypg including a mind boggling 74% comp rate. While the SD’s offense used to cover up their defensive flaws the lack of a run game (83 ypg 3.7 L6 gms) has pressured Rivers to throw & he’s tossed multiple int in 5 of 7 games. SD’s defense led the NFL with 48 takeaways LY but is without a takeaway in 4 straight games. SD is 2-0 as a HF in their MNF & SNF games TY & 0-2 in Sun afternoon games losing to CAR outright & squeaking past KC as a 14’ point fav surviving on a stopped 2pt conversion. We’ll side with ATL getting points with SD off their SNF vs IND & having a Thurs game vs OAK on deck.
Kansas City 27 OAKLAND 23 - OAK beat KC 23-8 as a 3 pt AD in the 2nd Wk of the season. Injury & ineffectiveness forced KC to use 3 QB’s including Thigpen who had 151 yds (42%) with a 1-1 ratio in the game. OAK rushed for 300 yds (6.4) & held KC to 55 yds (2.9) rushing & HC Edwards admitted that “we got embarrassed at home.” KC is 5-2 ATS away vs a div foe while OAK is 2-9 ATS hosting a div foe. OAK is off a huge 31-10 win vs arch rival DEN as they scored their 1st offensive TD in 15 Qtrs (or 206 plays). KC was blown out at home 54-31 as they were -5 TO’s which set up 20 pts for BUF. They now take to the road where they have gone 0-5 SU & 3-2 ATS. KC has scored 19 or more pts in 5 straight games after doing it just once in their first six games. Neither team is very appealing as they are both rebuilding but with OAK being just 0-8 ATS as a HF & KC getting a little healthier LW (3 def starters back) & not quitting after being down 40-17 LW we’ll lean with the road dog here in a higher scoring game.
Chicago at MINNESOTA - CHI won a surprising 48-41 shootout in the 1st meeting as a 3.5 pt HF & the Bears has covered 7 of the L10. MIN had a 439-327 yd edge but CHI int’d Frerotte 4 times, blocked a punt for a TD & recovered 2 fumbles for TD’s in the game. The Vikings had a 155 (4.8) to 53 (2.4) rush edge but CHI had great field position all day thanks to the TO’s. Both teams got satisfying road wins LW to keep the NFC North interesting & this game will have deep playoff implications.
Jacksonville at HOUSTON - The Jaguars needed OT to beat the Texans 30-27 & failed to cover as a 7 pt HF dropping to 3-10 ATS vs them. HOU held RB’s Jones-Drew & Taylor to 56 yds rushing (3.3) but gave up a 41 yd TD run via a direct snap on a fake punt for JAX’s 1st score. Both teams will go all out here as this HOU’s only primetime game TY & will have some momentum after getting their 1st road win in over a year LW. JAX is playing for pride after injuries derailed what was expected to be a playoff run in 2008 & this will be the Jaguars playoff game.
3★ Broncos/Jets OVER 47'
3★ 49ers/Bills OVER 44
3★ Giants/Redskins UNDER 44'*
2★ Panthers/Packers OVER 43*
2★ Ravens/Bengals UNDER 36'