Newsletters 11/26 - 11/30

GOLD SHEET COLLEGE

KEY RELEASES
WYOMING by 8 over Colorado State (Friday, Nov. 27)
MISSISSIPPI by 17 over Mississippi State
ARKANSAS by 9 over Lsu
STANFORD by 18 over Notre Dame

*Texas 35 - TEXAS A&M 20—Texas has the Big XII title game on tap Dec.
5. But it is sacrilegious in Austin to even consider that the Longhorns would
overlook the Aggies. A&M has covered the last two meetings in College
Station. This year, Mike Sherman’s youth-laden team has played with great
confidence at home, going 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 vs. the spread, and scoring 40 ppg
(albeit vs. mostly marginal opposition). QB Jerrod Johnson (24 TDs, 5 ints.)
has the receivers and can keep Ags within earshot if he keeps his poise. A&M’s
Von Miller leads the nation in sacks with 15½. TV—ESPN
(08-TEXAS 49-Tex. A&M 9...U.24-12 U.43/216 A.22/M24 U.24/30/0/320 A.20/35/0/269 U.0 A.1)
(08-TEXAS -35 49-9 07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7...SR: Texas 74-36-5)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Pittsburgh 27 - WEST VIRGINIA 20—Panthers have captured last two in
“Backyard Brawl,” including monumental upset at Morgantown in 2007 that cost
West Virginia a trip to BCS title game (and hastened Rich Rodriguez’ escape
from town). Mountaineers would love to turn the tables on one-loss Pitt team
with BCS aspirations of its own this year. Still, balanced Panther offense (223
ypg passing, 188 rushing) running a lot smoother than sputtering WV attack (24
points or fewer in 4 of last 5 games). And Mounties just 7-14 vs. spread under
Bill Stewart since LY. REG. TV—ABC
(08-PITT 19-W. Va. 15...P.23-13 P.44/190 W.32/157 P.12/23/2/156 W.15/28/2/143 P.1 W.0)
(08-PITT +3 19-15 07-Pitt +28' 13-9 06-Wva -10' 45-27...SR: Pittsburgh 61-37-3)

Rutgers 27 - LOUISVILLE 13—With pointspread dipping a little following
Rutgers’ surprising loss at Syracuse, compelled to go against discouraged
Cardinal squad that’s been eliminated from bowl contention and will have little
crowd support in what might be final game for beleaguered HC Kragthorpe.
Bedraggled Louisville offense has struck paydirt just 3 times in last 3 games.
CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-RUTGERS 63-Lvl. 14...R.25-15 R.33/224 L.31/48 R.21/26/0/447 L.24/34/1/270 R.0 L.1)
(08-RUTGERS -11 63-14 07-LVL. -2' 41-38 06-RUTGERS +6' 28-25...SR: Rutgers 6-2)

AKRON 30 - Eastern Michigan 19—These two are a combined 6-15 against
the number. But slightly prefer taking double digits with EMU, which has gotten
a bit of an offensive boost from frosh QB Alex Gillett (183 YR & a rush TD, 28
for 51 passing for 381 yds. & 3 scores last 2 games). Desperate Eagles are 0-
11 SU this season. But must remember EMU rallied for upsets in finale each of
last 2 seasons. Akron attack only marginally more productive than Eagles
117th-ranked offense.
(08-Akron 42-E. MICH. 35...A.22-21 A.42/339 E.41/182 E.22/34/1/258 A.11/19/0/208 A.1 E.1)
(08-Akron -4 42-35...SR: Akron 16-10)

Buffalo 30 - KENT STATE 20—Injury to Kent’s productive frosh QB Keith
(shoulder) caused Flash offense to grind to a halt in second half of last week’s
game against Temple. Neither soph Georgio Morgan nor fifth-year sr. Anthony
Magazu was able to balance the attack sufficiently, and the Kent defense
caved. Buffalo still playing with pride and purpose for respected HC Turner Gill,
and if star WR Roosevelt (knee inj.; check status) can go, Bulls have superior
firepower. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Kent St. 24-BUF. 21...K.25-20 K.44/312 B.33/145 B.21/31/0/240 K.13/23/0/114 K.0 B.1)
(08-Ksu +9 24-21 07-Buf. +1' 30-23 (OT) 06-BUF. +15' 41-14...SR: Kent State 9-8)

Wyoming 24 - COLORADO STATE 16—Perhaps enduring hostilities
vs. disliked border rival will bring out the best in CSU. But not sure what that
means these days after free-falling Rams (lost last 8, no covers last 5) plumbed
new depths of ineptitude in last week’s loss at then-winless New Mexico. Injurydepleted
Ram defense should look like an inviting target to evolving Wyoming
spread. Cowboys become bowl-eligible with win!
(08-Colo. St. 31-WYO. 20...W.25-17 W.45/209 C.38/186 C.16/29/2/236 W.22/43/0/220 C.1 W.3)
(08-Csu -2 31-20 07-CSU -3' 36-28 06-WYO. -4 24-0...SR: Colorado State 55-40-5)

Temple 28 - OHIO 17—In MAC East decider, compelled to lay points with
rolling Temple side that’s won 9 in a row SU and has covered 8 of 10 spread
decisions this season. Owl HC Al “Touch of” Golden has made believers of
TGS scouts & staff, and even the expected absence of star frosh RB Pierce
(very doubtful after suffering a shoulder injury early in last week’s game) hasn’t
dampened enthusiasm. “The Bug” (5-5 Matt Brown) ran for 156 yards and 2
TDs taking over vs. Kent after Pierce was injured.
(08-TEMPLE 14-Ohio 10...O.19-12 T.37/64 O.29/47 O.23/40/0/220 T.9/22/0/79 T.0 O.2)
(08-TEMPLE -4 14-10 07-OHIO -9 23-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)

Alabama 31 - AUBURN 13—Auburn looking to regain some respect
following 36-0 whitewash in Iron Bowl LY, but still prefer well-conditioned Bama
(outscoring foes 94-24 in 4th Q!), which is 10-3 last 13 vs. spread in SEC play (9
of those wins by DDs). Tide’s punishing ground assault, featuring Heisman
hopeful RB Ingram (1407 YR), carves up Tigers’ low-ranked rush defense (10th
in SEC; 4.6 ypc, league-worst 23 TDs). Meanwhile, Bama’s stifling,
opportunistic stop unit (10 ppg, 15 ints.) will thwart inconsistent Auburn attack
lacking much big-play ability (just 21 ppg last 5 SEC tilts). Tide’s elusive CB/KR
Arenas has an SEC-record 7 punt return TDs, and gifted WR Julio Jones
coming on strong (21 catches last 4 games). TV—CBS
(08-ALA. 36-Auburn 0...Al.21-8 Al.50/234 Au.30/57 Al.10/18/0/178 Au.9/23/0/113 Al.0 Au.3)
(08-ALA. -14' 36-0 07-AUB. -6 17-10 06-Aub. -3 22-15...SR: Alabama 39-33-1)

TULSA 45 - Memphis 20—Memphis hasn’t exactly rallied behind soon-tobe-
ex-coach Tommy West, as Tigers lost at Houston by a 55-14 count.
Memphis has one cover this season, and its 115th-ranked defense has yielded
111 points in last 2 road games. This isn’t a vintage Tulsa team by any means, as
Golden Hurricane has dropped 5 straight after promising 4-1 start, but expect soph
combo of QB Kinne and WR Damaris Johnson to do damage against Tiger 2ndary.
(06-Tulsa -13' 35-14...SR: Memphis 14-8)

CINCINNATI 34 - Illinois 10—Anemic Illinois offense had scored just 9 ppg
on the road before aberrational performance at Minnesota. And just don’t see
Illini being able to attack consistently or defend undefeated Cincinnati’s 3rdranked
offense well enough to hang within three touchdowns. Aggressive
Bearcat defensive line will pressure Illini QB Juice Williams (scheduled to start
final 2 games for Illinois), while star Cincy WR Gilyard will make his usual plays
facing nation’s 90th-ranked 2ndary. TV—ESPN2 (FIRST MEETING)

Nebraska 23 - COLORADO 20—Will this turn out to be the last game at CU
for Dan Hawkins? It might. But he’s developed the Buffs just enough for them
to be a day-long pest for Nebraska, which has locked up its spot in the Big XII
title game next week. Murderous at times on defense, the Huskers are seeking
more offense, with revered AD Tom Osborne reportedly subtly feeding ideas on
option plays and deception to the Husker staff. CU 4-2 last 6 as home dog.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-NEB. 40-Colo. 31...N.23-13 N.51/178 C.22/42 C.14/26/3/249 N.19/26/0/229 N.2 C.1)
(08-NEB. -18 40-31 07-COLO. -4 65-51 06-NEB. -14 37-14...SR: Nebraska 47-18-2)

*BOWLING GREEN 38 - Toledo 23—Bowling Green has won and covered
last 3, and Toledo defense had yielded 38 ppg this season. Falcon QB Tyler
Sheehan has completed 68% of his passes and has thrown for 5 TDs with no
interceptions in his last two games. Bowl-hopeful BG has been impressive in
winning and covering last 3 made-for-ESPN MAC games, and Toledo’s porous
pass defense doesn’t figure to slow down Falcon WR Freddie Barnes, the
nation’s leading receiver. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-B. Green 38-TOL. 10...B.30-13 B.46/294 T.37/129 B.21/34/1/240 T.7/20/2/67 B.2 T.1)
(08-Bgu -2 38-10 07-BGU -6' 37-10 06-TOL. -6' 31-21...SR: Bowling Green 38-31-4)

*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 - Northern Illinois 26—Central Michigan has
clinched its spot in the MAC championship game, and QB LeFevour has
established himself as the MAC’s all-time passing leader. NIU slipped up at
Ohio last week, changing this game from a showdown to a CMU tuneup.
However, Huskies play well as a dog, are looking for their 8th SU win, and are
hoping for a bowl bid.
(08-C. Mich. 33-N. ILL. 30 (OT)...C.28-19 C.49/241 N.35/80 N.18/38/2/288 C.19/26/0/189 C.1 N.0)
(08-Cmu +3' 33-30 (OT) 07-CMU -3 35-10 06-NIU +3' 31-10...SR: Central Mich. 23-20-1)

*BOISE STATE 54 - Nevada 37—Boise series domination (won last 9!)
well-documented, although rivalry not as one-sided the past two years, or
since QB Colin Kaepernick has emerged as a force for Nevada (his breakout
game was in 4-OT thriller on blue carpet in ‘07). But Wolf Pack also a
notorious bully, and vulnerable Nevada pass “D” could get strafed by on-fire
Bronco soph QB Moore (33 TDP & only 3 picks!). Boise making no bones
about playing “ratings” game these days. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-Boise St. 41-NEV. 34...B.22-18 N.35/144 B.26/70 B.29/48/3/414 N.19/51/0/241 B.1 N.0)
(08-Bsu -6' 41-34 07-BSU -26 69-67 (OT) 06-Bsu -2' 38-7...SR: Boise State 23-12)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Virginia Tech 30 - VIRGINIA 9—Doubt Al Groh has many tricks left up his
sleeve after the embattled Virginia mentor emptied the playbook in last week’s
loss at Clemson. It’s no fluky technical trend that Hokies are 26-12 vs. spread away
from home since 2004, as a potent rushing attack combined with their strong
defense & special teams make a reliable winning formula on road. TV-ESPN
(08-VA. TECH 17-Va. 14...T.24-12 T.52/216 U.31/172 T.15/28/1/176 U.8/15/1/77 T.0 U.0)
(08-TECH -7' 17-14 07-Tech -3' 33-21 06-TECH -17 17-0...SR: Virginia Tech 48-37-5)

CONNECTICUT 33 - Syracuse 14—Sure, there’s some concern the
Huskies’ emotional well might be a little dry after last week’s OT win at Notre
Dame. But keep in mind UConn still needs one more victory to be bowl eligible.
And good chance relentless RBs Todman & Dixon (combined 1556 YR) will
wear down depleted Syracuse defense.
(08-Conn. 39-SYR. 14...C.16-8 C.44/259 S.36/96 C.7/15/0/70 S.6/23/3/51 C.0 S.0)
(08-Conn. -9' 39-14 07-CONN. -19 30-7 06-SYR. -1' 20-14...SR: Connecticut 3-2)

DUKE 24 - Wake Forest 23—Prefer to take points in battle of ACC also-rans.
Duke program definitely on the upswing since respected HC Cutcliffe took
charge, while regressing Wake already assured of its first losing campaign in
last 4 seasons. Passive Deacon defense has only 14 takeaways this year after
leading nation with 37 in 2008.
(08-W. FOR. 33-Duke 30 (OT)...D.21-16 D.37/145 W.43/112 W.18/31/0/232 D.19/27/2/231 W.1 D.2)
(08-WFU -7' 33-30 (OT) 07-Wfu -7' 41-36 06-WFU -20' 14-13...SR: Duke 53-34-2)

Clemson 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 19—Since USC enduring another lateseason
swoon in brutal SEC, favor hot Clemson squad (6 straight wins; 4-1 vs.
spread) gunning for its 11th series win in past 13 seasons. HC Steve Spurrier
has taken over play-calling duties, but without a supportive ground game (SECworst
116 ypg), doubt ‘Cocks’ poorly-protected QB Garcia (sacked 33 times!)
finds many open receivers vs. blanket-covering Tiger secondary (18 ints.).
Clemson’s record-setting RB Spiller top homerun threat on gridiron, and RS
frosh QB Parker (49 of 74 for 662 yds. last 3 games) getting better and better.
TV-ESPN
(08-CLEM. 31-S. Car. 14...S.20-19 C.47/184 S.26/92 S.22/48/4/212 C.12/17/0/199 C.2 S.0)
(08-CLEM. -1 31-14 07-Clem. -3 23-21 06-Usc +5' 31-28...SR: Clemson 65-37-2)

North Carolina 31 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—Revenge doesn’t always
work, but Butch Davis appears in good position to excise pound of flesh from
Wolfpack after his Heels dropped last two meetings against their in-state
nemesis (including humiliating 41-10 beatdown at Chapel Hill LY). Defenseless
State has lost 6 of its last 7, with 5 of those defeats by at least 20 points.
Meanwhile, Carolina has captured 4 straight, largely on the strength of its swarming
stop unit that has snagged 10 takeaways in just last 2 games. TV-ESPN2
(08-N. Car. St. 41-N. CAR. 10...S.18-13 S.45/187 U.26/56 S.17/28/0/279 U.14/28/3/147 S.0 U.3)
(08-Ncs +11' 41-10 07-NCS -3' 31-27 06-UNC +3' 23-9...SR: North Carolina 63-29-6)

Missouri 41 - Kansas 29—Missouri’s “D” still not reliable. But big-time aerial
combination of 6-5 soph Blaine Gabbert to 6-5 sr. Danario Alexander is.
Alexander (42 recs., 710 yards, 7 TDs in just the last four games!) dominating
most secondaries lately. And Kansas is not only slumping (six straight losses;
8 straight pointspread Ls), but is also fighting the distractions regarding Mark
Mangino’s methods. Dog is 5-1 last 6 in series, but must lean to revengeseeking
Mizzou in bitter “Border War.” (at Kansas City, MO) TV-ABC
(08-Kansas 40-Mo. 37...K.24-23 M.26/190 K.32/63 K.37/51/2/375 M.25/42/2/288 K.0 M.1)
(08-Kan. +16 40-37 at KC 07-Mo. +2 36-28 at KC 06-MO. -7' 42-17...SR: EVEN 54-54-9)

*Tennessee 24 - KENTUCKY 16—Although UK ended one protracted losing
streak in 34-27 comeback win at UGA (1st win in Athens since ‘77!), won’t ask
Wildcats to snap this 24-game series losing skein. UT’s tackle-breaking RB
Hardesty (1028 YR, 5.1 ypc) allows steady QB Crompton to work play-action vs.
UK’s permissive front 7 (yielding 4.6 ypc). Meanwhile, UK’s still-learning true frosh
QB Morgan will be hard-pressed to solve Vols’ Tampa-2 zone. After losing first 3
SEC road games vs. foes with a combined 30-3 record, Vols prevail again in
Lexington, where Brooks’ squad has dropped 5 straight SEC tilts. TV-ESPNU
(08-TENN. 28-Ky. 10...T.16-11 T.53/210 K.38/96 T.6/8/0/101 K.9/14/0/97 T.0 K.0)
(08-TENN. -4' 28-10 07-Tenn. +2' 52-50 (OT) 06-TENN. -20' 17-12...SR: Tennessee 72-23-9)

Mississippi 30 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 13—With 8-3 Ole Miss in the
hunt for a major bowl, give support to superior Rebel squad that’s 7-2-1 vs.
spread in last 10 Egg Bowls. Ole Miss’ sizzling, multi-dimensional, Darren
Sproles-like (say NFL scouts) weapon McCluster (430 YR last 2 games; threw
TD pass vs. LSU!) finishing his career with a flourish. Meanwhile, look for
Rebels to put 8-9 in box to smother Bulldogs RB Dixon, especially with MSU’s
stagnating aerial game providing little balance lately (just 148 YP last 2 games).
(08-MISS. 45-Miss. St. 0...U.22-8 U.44/220 S.26/M51 U.16/24/1/241 S.10/30/2/88 U.1 S.0)
(08-MISS. -17 45-0 07-MSU -6 17-14 06-MISS. -3 20-17...SR: Mississippi 60-39-6)

TCU 52 - New Mexico 0—Acknowledge UNM’s improved efforts the past
month, but now that Lobos properly sated after win over Colorado State allowed
them to avoid the dreaded “big donut” in ‘09, they’ll be quick to wave the white
flag in Fort Worth. TCU (covered last 6; win margin 36 ppg since Air Force
scare) taking no chances with pollsters as it continues quest for guaranteed
BCS berth, and MWC sources not convinced Mike Locksley’s version of the
spread gets past midfield vs. swarming Frog stop unit.
(08-Tcu 26-N. MEX. 3...T.20-9 T.48/171 N.32/56 N.7/23/2/130 T.16/26/1/120 T.0 N.1)
(08-Tcu -6' 26-3 07-TCU -4 37-0 06-Tcu -6' 27-21...SR: TCU 7-3)

Southern Miss 31 - EAST CAROLINA 30—C-USA scouts raving about the
job second-year HC Fedora doing at Southern Miss, as the former Oklahoma
State offensive coordinator has piloted Eagles to 4 wins in last 5 games despite
losing starting QB Austin Davis earlier in campaign. USM has better offensive
weaponry than host ECU, although Pirates do enjoy strong home-field edge at
Greenville. ECU can clinch C-USA East.
(08-S. MISS 21-E. Car. 3...S.16-10 S.40/145 E.21/66 S.18/30/0/239 E.20/34/2/189 S.1 E.0)
(08-USM -2' 21-3 07-Usm -1' 28-21 06-Ecu +6 20-17 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 26-8)

Ucf 27 - UAB 17—Wouldn’t lay many points against productive UAB sr. QB
Webb and hard-trying Blazers, who need one more victory to be bowl eligible for
first time since 2004. But, as long as spread fair, support UCF based on its
superior defense and much improved offense (340 ypg; nation’s-worst 230 ypg
in 2008).(08-Uab +9 15-0 07-Ucf -20' 45-31 06-UCF -3 31-22...SR: UCF 5-1)

Marshall 37 - UTEP 30—Thundering Herd certainly no road warriors in
recent seasons, although improved Marshall has covered its last 4 away from
Huntington. Potent UTEP still a dangerous dog. But Miners have meandered
into mediocrity after early upsets over Houston & Tulsa, and rumors swirling
about HC Price’s likely resignation/retirement.
(06-MARSHALL -3 49-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)

SMU 44 - Tulane 20—C-USA scouts advising us to stay away, FAR AWAY,
from troubled Tulane, which has covered just 2 of its last 14 games on board.
Green Wave had 5 turnovers and just 50 total yards in last week’s 49-0
beatdown at UCF!
(08-TULANE 34-Smu 27...T.24-16 T.42/220 S.13/55 S.21/44/2/256 T.19/24/1/254 T.1 S.0)
(08-TULANE -18 34-27 07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28...SR: Tulane 12-5)

*Texas Tech 40 - Baylor 13—TY’s game is at “Jerry’s World.” And
pointspread rising after TT’s easy victory over Oklahoma last week, while
Baylor has been swamped by a combined 61-3 in the first half (!) of its last two
games. Red Raider QB Taylor Potts had 388 YP vs. only one turnover last week
vs. OU, and Tech has covered 8 of last 10 vs. the Bears. It’s hard to trust Baylor
RS frosh QB Florence (6 TDs, 9 ints.) vs. Raider defense second only to Pitt in
sacks. (at Arlington, TX)
(08-TEX. TECH 35-Bay. 28...T.24-19 B.43/229 T.24/56 T.41/50/1/309 B.12/16/1/91 T.1 B.0)
(08-TECH -21' 35-28 07-Tech -20 38-7 06-TECH -17 55-21..SR: Texas Tech 34-32-1)

OKLAHOMA 31 - Oklahoma State 17—BEDLAM!!! However, it’s hard to
predict just how much of it OSU will be causing with star WR Dez Bryant
suspended, RB Wendell Hunter still not his normal speedy self, and sr. QB Zac
Robinson signaling in plays from the sidelines last week vs. Colorado while
nursing a sore shoulder. OU, of course, has its own lengthy injury list. RS frosh
QB Landry Jones often shows his youth, with only 5 TDs vs. 9 ints. on the road,
but 18 TDs vs. 4 ints. at home!
(08-Okla. 61-OKLA. ST. 41...U.27-25 S.39/198 U.38/187 U.30/44/0/370 S.17/26/1/254 U.0 S.1)
(08-Okla. -7' 61-41 07-OKLA. -13' 49-17 06-Okla. -5' 27-21...SR: Oklahoma 80-15-7)

FLORIDA 45 - Florida State 16—FSU hasn’t been this big an underdog since
Bobby Bowden’s 1st season in 1976 (26-pt. dog at Oklahoma). But still prefer to
“lay it” with title-seeking Florida squad that has easily covered 4 of past 5 in series.
‘Noles skillful but unrefined RS frosh QB Manuel (3 ints. vs. Maryland) likely to
implode vs. smothering, sack-crazed Gator defense (SEC-leading 33 sacks) that
has allowed only 8 TDs in 11 games. Contrarily, UF’s possible Heisman
repeater Tebow should have a field day in final home appearance vs.
permissive FSU defense that’s allowed 40+ pts. in 3 of last 6 games. TV-CBS
(08-Fla. 45-FLA. ST. 15...U.22-17 U.46/317 S.33/102 U.12/22/0/185 S.10/32/3/140 U.1 S.1)
(08-Fla. -16' 45-15 07-FLA. -14 45-12 06-Fla. -9 21-14...SR: Florida 32-19-2)

*GEORGIA TECH 31 - Georgia 28—With UGA circling the wagons following
34-27 come-from-ahead loss vs. Kentucky, inclined to take inflated number in
a southern rivalry where the road team is a sterling 9-1-1 vs. spread last 11.
GT’s smooth-functioning triple option piled up 409 yds. in 45-42 shootout LY.
But if Dawgs’ productive but mistake-prone QB Cox (291 YP vs. Ky., but 2
costly) avoids poor decisions, revenge-minded Georgia trades much of way vs.
penetrable Engineer “D” (24 ppg, 18 TDs, only 8 ints.) once again. TV-ABC
08-Ga. Tech 45-GA. 42...U.22-15 T.56/409 U.22/81 U.24/40/1/407 T.1/6/1/19 T.1 U.0)
(08-Tech +8 45-42 07-Georgia -3' 31-17 06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12...SR: Georgia 59-37-5)

BYU 24 - Utah 23—Revenge (especially for QB Max Hall, who tossed 5 picks
in BYU’s 48-24 loss at Salt Lake City a year ago) ought to at least ensure a
focused effort from Cougs, something Bronco Mendenhall hasn’t been able to
coax consistently from his troops the past five weeks. But only ravenous TCU
has been able to extend the margin on capable Utah, and frosh QB Wynn has
quickly matured into a competent game manager for Utes. Note dog is 9-3 vs.
line last 12 “Beehive Boot” battles.
(08-UTAH 48-Byu 24...U.27-25 B.30/214 U.35/108 U.31/37/0/307 B.21/41/5/205 U.0 B.1)
(08-UTAH -7 48-24 07-BYU -4' 17-10 06-Byu -3' 33-31...SR: Utah 50-30-4)

*HOUSTON 49 - Rice 28—Purring Cougar offense had 42 points & 443 yards
in the first half of last week’s home blowout of Memphis. Little doubt that UH &
stellar QB Keenum (4599 YP, 36 TDP vs. only 6 ints.) will be able to avenge
LY’s loss to city rival Rice, although Owls should move ball enough to stay
inside roomy impost.
(08-RICE 56-Hou. 42...R.30-27 R.38/198 H.27/140 H.30/54/1/494 R.30/43/0/393 R.0 H.1)
(08-RICE +3 56-42 07-HOU. -22' 56-48 06-Hou. -14' 31-30...SR: Houston 25-10)

Utah State 37 - IDAHO 31—Idaho has dropped 4 straight vs. spread after 7-
0 start, as the Vandal defense has yielded 50 ppg during downturn. Utah State
has provided good value this season (7-3 vs. number), and RB Robert Turbin
(108 ypg rushing) and QB Diondre Borel (conference leader in total offense)
capable of piling up some points.
(08-UTAH ST. 42-Idaho 17...U.26-18 U.45/356 I.31/84 U.14/23/1/224 I.23/39/1/187 U.1 I.1)
(08-USU -5 42-17 07-Usu +2' 24-19 06-Idaho -2' 41-21...SR: Utah St. 17-16-2)

WASHINGTON 41 - Washington State 7—Feckless Wazzu (which has yet
to hold a lead in regulation time TY!) at the mercy of foes, who have basically
been choosing how badly they want to beat the Cougs. Which is bad news for
Wazzu in Seattle, where angry U-Dub seeks to take out some frustrations and
is unlikely to pull back on the throttle after losing last two Apple Cups in galling
fashion. Huskies equipped to extend margin now that Jake Locker’s bruised
thigh has “bye” week to recuperate.
(08-WSU 16-Wash. 13 (OT)...U.20-15 U.58/224 S.37/171 S.17/30/1/167 U.11/16/1/99 S.0 U.0)
(08-WSU +7 16-13 (OT) 07-Wsu +6' 42-35 06-Wash. +8' 35-32...SR: Washington 64-31-6)

Arizona 24 - ARIZONA STATE 16—Potentially dicey psychological spot for
UA after back-to-back heartbreakers vs. Cal & Oregon have dashed dreams of
its first-ever Rose Bowl visit. But sight of old Territorial Cup rival ASU ought to
grab Cats’ attention, and note that road team has covered 13 of last 17 in series.
Definite offensive competence edge to Tucson bunch in expected battle of longhaired
QBs (prefer Cats’ Foles to Sun Devils’ pony-tailed third-stringer
Szakacsy, likely to make only his second start).
(08-ARIZ. 31-Ariz. St. 10...U.25-12 U.40/105 S.23/38 U.25/37/1/284 S.13/31/1/124 U.0 S.0)
(08-ARIZ. -11 31-10 07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14...SR: Arizona 45-36-1)

Boston College 26 - MARYLAND 24—Eagle QB Shinskie went on tilt last
week, committing 5 turnovers (including two that were returned for TDs) in
home loss to North Carolina. Even if BC is able to bounce back behind star RB
Harris (745 YR in last 5 games!), it’s likely to take all 60 minutes to dispatch
pesky Maryland, which can also move the rock on ground now that top RB Scott
(1133 YR in 2008) is back from injury. TV-ESPNU
(08-BOS. COL. 28-Mary. 21...M.21-20 B.41/175 M.26/M6 M.33/57/2/360 B.13/25/0/143 B.0 M.0)
(08-BC -6' 28-21 07-MARY. +6' 42-35 06-BC -7' 38-16...SR: Boston College 4-2)

SOUTH FLORIDA 28 - Miami-Florida 27—Although talented RS frosh USF
QB Daniels (304 YP, 141 YR in win over Louisville) is capable of wreaking
havoc on lesser foes, he has frequently self-destructed against better
defenses. Don’t believe depleted Hurricane stop unit qualifies as the latter, so
no big surprise if Bulls ride Daniels and raucous support of Tampa faithful to
small upset of Miami (just 8-16 last 24 as chalk) in Hurricanes’ first visit to USF.
TV-ABC (DNP...SR: Miami-Florida 1-0)

*Arkansas 33 - LSU 24—With Arkansas’ super-smooth, strong-armed
QB Mallett (school-record 28 TDP TY; 313 YP & 5 TDP last week) executing like
an NFL star, take any available points vs. demoralized LSU squad not easily
recovering from last-second snafu in 25-23 loss at Ole Miss. Tigers’ jr. QB
Jefferson (sacked 6 times vs. Rebels) is hampered by nagging ankle injury, and
ground attack failed to crack century mark (sans top RB Scott) past 2 SEC
clashes. No surprise to see Hogs spring 3rd straight upset vs. Miles’ squad, a
woeful 1-12 vs. spread last 13 as SEC host. TV-ESPN
(08-ARK. 31-Lsu 30...A.23-18 L.44/161 A.31/118 A.25/40/1/280 L.9/21/0/143 A.0 L.0)
(08-ARK. +4' 31-30 at LR 07-Ark. +13 50-48 (OT) 06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR...SR: LSU 34-19-2)

*SAN JOSE STATE 24 - New Mexico St. 10—Although we might appear to
be begging for an appointment at the local psychiatrist’s office by
recommending 1-win San Jose bunch that’s dropped its last 7 vs. line, WAC
sources insist we’re not crazy. Spartans likely to dig deep for one last home
hurrah for retiring HC Tomey, and insiders believe change back to former
starting QB Reed gives SJSU chance to extend vs. no-dimensional NMSU
(whose “O” broke 20-Q TD-less streak in garbage time vs. Nevada).
(08-Sjs 31-N. MEX. ST. 14...N.17-11 S.37/151 N.29/35 N.28/45/3/249 S.8/18/3/50 S.0 N.1)
(08-Sjs -2 31-14 07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21...SR: San Jose State 14-2)

*STANFORD 42 - Notre Dame 24—“Charlie chatter” likely to dominate
pre-game discussions, with HC Weis expected to take the same route as Bob
Davie and Ty Willingham out of South Bend soon enough. While Domers
ponder their next pontiff (er, coach) and wait for the white smoke to waft above
campus sometime in December, not sure ND (no losses by more than 7) can
keep it close on the Farm, where Stanford has covered 11 of last 12 and will be
in ornery mood after blowing last week’s Big Game vs. Cal. Poor-tackling Irish “D”
in big trouble vs. rampaging Toby Gerhart (544 YR last 3). REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-N. DAME 28-Stan. 21...20-20 S.37/161 N.27/83 N.29/40/0/347 S.18/28/3/182 N.0 S.1)
(08-UND -6' 28-21 07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10...SR: Notre Dame 17-6)

*UNLV 34 - San Diego State 26—Tricky dynamics to consider, with UNLV’s
notoriously fragile psyche rocked further by announcement of HC Sanford’s
pending dismissal. But if rested Rebs can rally around their departing coach,
they retain enough firepower (even minus injured WR star Wolfe) to outscore
fading SDSU bunch that MWC sources believe lacks depth and defensive
manpower to prevent late-season erosion (Aztecs have lost last 3 and failed to
cover last 4 TY).
(08-SDSU 42-Unlv 21...S.27-16 S.30/92 U.23/33 S.35/50/0/387 U.26/40/2/316 S.0 U.1)
(08-SDS +10' 42-21 07-Sds +3 38-30 06-SDS -9 21-7...SR: San Diego State 11-7)

*SOUTHERN CAL 26 - Ucla 19—Pac-10 insiders not convinced reeling SC
ready to deliver big bounce-back effort after Stanford debacle, citing schematic
flaws both offensively (first-year play-caller Bates not getting rave reviews) and
defensively (allowing 37 ppg last 4; worst defensive stretch in school history)
that have contributed to 1-8 spread mark since San Jose opener. UCLA “D” has
kept better Trojan attacks in check lately, and though PK Forbath (26 FGs!)
remains Bruins’ most-reliable weapon, Norm Chow’s offense showing enough
improvement with RS frosh QB Prince to stay within earshot.
(08-S. Cal 28-UCLA 7...S.33-7 S.47/209 U.21/47 S.18/33/1/269 U.12/29/1/110 S.1 U.0)
(08-Usc -32' 28-7 07-USC -19' 24-7 06-UCLA +12' 13-9...SR: Southern Cal 43-28-7)

*Navy 34 - HAWAII 18—Special trip for Navy HC Niumatalolo, a Hawaii
native and UH alum. But don’t expect him to take it easy on his alma mater if
host Warriors can’t deal with Mid option, which might be too much to ask from
Hawaii “D” that ranks a lowly 103rd vs. the rush and allows nearly 5 ypc. And
Warriors’ chances to trade points further minimized if Greg McMackin forced to
go deep into depth chart to find pilot for watered-down UH Red Gun (3rd-stringer
Austin forced into action last week in struggle at San Jose). (DNP...SR: Hawaii 1-0)

ADDED GAMES

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 44 - Western Kentucky 33—Winless WKU has shown
a bit more fight the last two games and should be ready for an all-out try for its
elusive first 2009 victory against 3-7 FAU. Hilltopper HC Dave Elson has already
been fired, but expect team to play hard in last two games for the coach who
recruited them to Western Kentucky and ushered them through the transition to
top level competition. Florida Atlantic getting serviceable play from jr. QB Jeff
Van Camp, but Owls’ 116th-ranked defense is a mess.
(08-Fla. Atl. 24-W. KY. 20...F.22-16 W.41/240 F.44/225 F.15/23/0/174 W.9/17/1/77 F.1 W.0)
(08-Florida Atlantic -2' 24-20...SR: Florida Atlantic 1-0)

*LA.-MONROE 28 - Middle Tennessee St. 27—MTSU’s prowess as chalk
(covered last 7) one of many formful Sun Belt trends, but remember most of that
damage has been in Murfreesboro. And last two meetings vs. ULM have gone
down to wire. Perhaps Dwight Dasher and the percolating Blue Raider spread
fire deciding scoring shots, but Warhawks properly balanced offensively now
that QB Revell has returned to team with underrated RB Goodin (1086 YR). ULM
in bowl mix (really!) with a win!
(08-MTS 24-La.-Mon. 21...L.24-21 L.43/236 M.35/90 M.16/26/0/278 L.19/31/1/212 M.1 L.0)
(08-MTS -4' 24-21 07-Mts -3' 43-40 06-Mts -3' 35-21...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 7-2)

ARKANSAS STATE 24 - North Texas 23—Don’t search for this one on the
ABC “family of networks.” North Texas has beaten only 1-10 Ball State & 0-10
Western Kentucky. ASU owns wins over only Mississippi Valley State & Florida
International. Both coaches on hot seat. But Red Wolves (2-7 vs. line TY, now
5-16 last 21 on board) situation could be more toxic.
(08-Ark. St. 33-N. TX. 28...A.21-20 A.45/188 N.31/110 N.28/42/3/217 A.12/22/0/205 A.1 N.0)
(08-Asu -20 33-28 07-ASU -15 31-27 06-ASU -10 29-10...SR: Arkansas State 10-8)

*Troy 38 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 17—Bowl-eligible 6-5 ULL no pushover. But
have no interest in bucking powerful, money-making Sun Belt champ Troy,
which is 20-6-2 vs. spread last 28 in Sun Belt (5-1-1 TY). Trojans prolific QB L.
Brown (43 ppg last 5 SB games) virtually unstoppable vs. talent-shy Belt
defenses, so envision Troy rolling to its 5th cover in past 6 meetings.
(08-TROY 48-La.-Laf. 3...T.26-12 T.55/391 L.35/183 L.7/15/2/72 T.9/20/0/68 T.1 L.0)
(08-TROY -10 48-3 07-Troy -9 48-31 06-TROY P 42-28...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-4)

GOLD SHEET NFL

KEY RELEASES

ATLANTA by 24 over Tampa Bay
NEW ENGLAND by 7 over New Orleans (Monday, Nov. 30)
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Miami-Buffalo game

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Green Bay 34 - DETROIT 17—Expect a more competitive showing from
Detroit than first meeting at Lambeau October 18, when Lions were minus both
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson and were down to 3rd-string QB Drew
Stanton at the end of 26-0 G.B beatdown. Stafford (check left shoulder injury) led
last week’s last-second win over Browns. But Detroit (no covers last 5) not taking
part in the recent renaissance of NFL underdogs. Dom Capers’ Packer 3-4
defense likely to cause fits for Lion OL, as it did last month, and G.B. + 14 in
turnover margin. TV-FOX
(09-G. BAY 26-Det. 0...G.23-10 G.30/107 D.18/78 G.29/37/1/328 D.11/25/3/71 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. Bay 48-DET. 25...G.19-15 G.30/123 D.12/49 G.24/38/0/324 D.23/45/3/262 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. BAY 31-Det. 21...G.20-19 G.27/211 D.29/96 G.21/31/0/273 D.22/42/2/220 G.1 D.0)
(09-G. BAY -14 26-0; 08-G. Bay -3 48-25, G. BAY -10' 31-21...SR: Green Bay 89-64-7)

DALLAS 22 - Oakland 13—While the NFL isn’t figure skating, style points
mean something in Dallas, and Jerry Jones must be wondering if he can justify
promoting his unofficial “coach in waiting”—offensive coordinator Jason
Garrett—to Wade Phillips’ hot seat after the Cowboys shot mostly blanks for the
second straight game last Sunday vs. Washington. Oakland yet to win (or cover)
in back-to-back contests TY. But the upset of Cincy confirms positives of the
switch to functional QB Bruce Gradkowski (2 TDP last week) over the
depressingly ineffective JaMarcus Russell. Raiders earning some covers on
road lately (7-5 vs. line last 12). TV—CBS
(2009 Preseason: Oakland -2' beat Dallas 31-10 at Oakland)
(05-OAKLAND -3 19-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)

*NY Giants 23 - DENVER 13—It’s officially time to hit the panic button in
Denver, as hobbled Kyle Orton (deemed more worthy by HC McDaniels on a bum
ankle than the misfiring Chris Simms) was unable to execute the Bronco ballcontrol
offense as effectively as he did the first six weeks of season, with Mike
Nolan’s defense becoming overworked and four straight losses the result. N.Y.
(no covers last 5) little more successful lately, and the availability of slamming
Brandon Jacobs a concern. But Eli’s career-high 384 YP vs. Falcons indicates
recent “bye” did his sore foot some good. Denver currently not likely to take
advantage of the leaks in G-Men defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-NY GIANTS -2 24-23...SR: NY Giants 6-4)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

HOUSTON 22 - Indianapolis 19—Indy breathing rarified air (19-game reg.-
season win streak), with the record 21 by the Brady-Belichick Patriots within
reach. But Colts continue to leave no margin for error (last 4 wins by 10 points
total), and Houston was a wide-left Kris Brown FG from forcing OT at Lucas Oil
Stadium Nov. 8. Texans’ much-improved defense (280 ypg last 6 prior to Titans
Monday) forced Colts into throwing 40 first-half passes last meeting. Houston
had 3 turnovers and 13 penalties, but Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson confident
after hooking up 10 times in that near-miss.
(09-INDY 20-Hou. 17...I.27-22 H.26/81 I.18/72 I.34/51/2/306 H.32/43/2/301 I.0 H.1)
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(08-INDY 33-Hou. 27...I.30-16 H.25/177 I.34/154 I.30/46/0/320 H.13/18/1/179 I.0 H.0)
(09-INDY -9 20-17; 08-Indy -3' 31-27, INDY -8 33-27...SR: Indianapolis 14-1)

CINCINNATI 24 - Cleveland 16—Not sure which of these two was more
numbed by their last-second road losses week ago. Trust Cincy’s recuperative
powers more than Cleveland’s, but not comfortable laying heavy lumber with the
low-variance Bengals, who have extended the margin once (vs. Chicago) and
waited until the final play of OT before finally subduing the Browns in first meeting
Oct. 4. Even if it was only vs. the Lions, Brady Quinn’s 4 TDP indicate signs of
life in the Cleveland offense. Dog has remarkably covered all 10 Cincy games!
(09-Cincy 23-CLE. 20 (OT)...Cl.22-21 Ci.30/154 Cl.33/146 Cl.26/48/1/249 Ci.23/44/1/221 Ci.1 Cl.1)
(08-Cle. 20-CINCY 12...Cl.19-14 Cl.40/134 Ci.16/69 Ci.21/35/3/142 Cl.15/24/1/127 Cl.1 Ci.2)
(08-Cincy 14-CLE. 0...Cl.13-12 Ci.46/191 Cl.29/137 Ci.5/9/0/55 Cl.12/22/4/45 Ci.1 Cl.0)
(09-Cincy -6' 23-20 (OT); 08-Cleve. +2 20-12, Cincy +2' 14-0...SR: EVEN 36-36)

MINNESOTA 33 - Chicago 13 —Vikes went into last week leading the NFL in
sacks with 34 (and added two), while Jay Cutler led QBs in ints. (and added one).
Worse for Cutler, Minny CB Antoine Winfield (foot; check status) says he plans
to return this week. And Bret Favre (21 TDs, only 3 ints.) has found a couple of
BFFs in elusive Percy Harvin & Sidney Rice, who should have fun cavorting in the
Chicago back seven already missing two starting LBs and focused on Adrian
Peterson (999 YR).
(08-CHI. 48-Minn. 41...M.28-20 M.32/155 C.22/53 M.25/40/4/284 C.21/32/0/274 C.1 M.1)
(08-MINN. 34-Chi. 14...M.17-10 M.39/178 C.26/103 M.16/25/1/200 C.11/29/3/125 M.0 C.0)
(08-CHICAGO -3 48-41, MINNESOTA -3' 34-14...SR: Minnesota 51-43-2)

PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 13—Don’t mind taking points in rematch,
partly due to Philly’s inconsistency. Plus, Redskins—despite all their muchdiscussed
troubles and turmoil TY—are 4-2 as an underdog and have lost only
one game by more than 10 points, with 5 single-digit losses! Washington offense
is short-handed, but defense still good enough to keep the Skins in most games.
Nine of last 12 in series “under” the total.
(09-Phil. 24-WASH. 17...W.21-11 P.27/122 W.19/62 W.29/43/1/246 P.16/26/0/140 P.0 W.3)
(08-Wash. 23-PHIL. 17...W.22-14 W.44/203 P.18/58 P.17/29/0/196 W.17/30/0/185 W.0 P.0)
(08-WASH. 10-Phil. 3...W.17-15 W.32/122 P.16/62 P.26/46/0/213 W.18/33/0/127 W.0 P.1)
(09-Phil. -7' 24-17; 08-Wash. +6 23-17, WASH. +5 10-3...SR: Washington 78-66-5)

UNDER THE TOTAL Miami 20 - BUFFALO 10—Buffalo’s fragile
psyche will be tested once more after its gut-wrenching loss at Jacksonville on the
heels of Dick Jauron’s dismissal. And its makeshift OL took another hit when Gs
Wood & McKinney both KO’d. Miami has the 3-4 LBs in numbers to take
advantage, even if excellent Dolphin NT Jason Ferguson out. Powerful RB Ricky
Williams (3 TDs last week) showed he’s ready to handle heavy duty with Ronnie
Brown injured. Note low-octane Bills “under” 5-1 last 6 TY.
(09-MIAMI 38-Buf. 10...M.25-10 M.45/250 B.17/46 B.14/26/3/160 M.14/22/0/86 M.0 B.0)
(08-MIAMI 25-Buf. 16...19-19 B.27/119 M.27/52 M.22/30/0/306 B.21/35/1/220 M.1 B.3)
(08-Miami 16-BUF. 3...M.18-13 M.34/115 B.18/84 M.23/29/0/180 B.13/27/1/79 M.0 B.1)
(09-MIAMI -1 38-10; 08-MIAMI +1 25-16, Miami +1' 16-3 at Toronto...SR: Miami 53-37-1)

TENNESSEE 24 - Arizona 20—Situation clouded by Kurt Warner’s apparent
concussion last week, especially since the poised, experienced Cardinals are 5-
0 SU & 4-1 vs. the spread on the road TY. Meanwhile, Tennessee took a threegame
Vince Young winning streak into its Monday nighter at Houston. V.Y.
doesn’t deserve all the credit, as the elusive Chris Johnson (1091 YR, 30 recs.
prior to MNF) is a unique weapon, and the Titan OL had allowed only seven sacks,
while its secondary has overcome its early injuries. Rematch of Vince vs. Matt
Leinart? (05-ARIZONA -5' 20-10...SR: Arizona 5-3)

ST. LOUIS 20 - Seattle 17—Not much to choose from in this lower-echelon
match, as Seattle is 0-5 SU and vs. line on road TY, while St. Louis is 0-5 at home.
Seahawks have won last nine meetings vs. Rams, including 28-0 in season
opener. But the visitors from the Northwest have been unable to overcome their
poor injury luck TY, while St. Louis has made marginal improvements under
Steve Spagnuolo, and the most consistent weapon on the field is Ram RB Steven
Jackson (1031 YR, 35 recs.).
(09-SEA. 28-St. Lou. 0...Se.25-13 Se.34/167 St.18/77 Se.25/36/2/279 St.17/36/0/170 Se.1 St.1)
(08-SEA. 37-St. Lou. 13...Se.24-14 Se.46/245 St.24/65 St.17/30/1/167 Se.12/20/0/162 Se.1 St.1)
(08-Sea. 23-ST. LOU. 20...St.18-16 St.31/131 Se.27/125 St.20/33/0/211 Se.15/25/0/208 Se.2 St.2)
(09-SEATTLE -7 28-0; 08-SEATTLE -9 37-13, Seattle -2' 23-20...SR: Seattle 13-10)

ATLANTA 34 - Tampa Bay 10—The Falcons (4-0 SU & vs. the spread
at home) have been living large TY in the Georgia Dome. But they might have to
play again this week without thumping RB Michael Turner (831 YR, 10 TDR),
who’s battling a high ankle sprain. However, NFL insiders have great respect for
backup Jason Snelling (75 YR last week at the Giants). Falcs now 8-1 last 9 vs.
the spread after a loss, and Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman showed some rookie form
last week with three interceptions.
(08-T. BAY 24-Atl. 9...T.15-14 T.28/164 A.28/105 T.18/31/0/147 A.13/33/2/129 T.1 A.0)
(08-ATL. 13-T. Bay 10 (OT)...T.19-18 A.43/175 T.26/99 T.26/37/1/226 A.15/23/2/198 A.1 T.0)
(08-TAMPA BAY -7 24-9, ATLANTA -3' 13-10 (OT)...SR: Tampa Bay 18-13)

Carolina 23 - N.Y. JETS 20—It should be interesting to see how Jake
Delhomme (4 TDP, 1 int. last 4 games; after a 4 vs. 13 Sept. & Nov.) copes with
Rex Ryan’s varied blitzes. Of course, the heavy rushes often leave Ryan’s
defense vulnerable to big-play counters, which RB DeAngelo Williams & WR
Steve Smith would be happy to provide for the Panthers, who are desperate to reenter
the wild card chase and have had a few extra days to scout the Jets. N.Y.
rookie QB Mark Sanchez had four ints. last week; now up to 16 TY.
(05-CAROLINA -8' 30-3...SR: EVEN 2-2)

SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Jacksonville 13—Jags (3 straight wins, by 3, 2 & 3
points) have clawed their way into the AFC wild card race, while S.F. (1-5 last 6
games) fading. But the 49ers’ struggles have been versus mostly high-level
opposition, and rookie WR Michael Crabtree helping balance their attack. This is
the first game for Maurice Jones-Drew (a legend at De La Salle high in the east
bay city of Concord) back in his home area. But Jags traveling a long way to face
a desperate team that’s just capable enough.
(05-JACKSONVILLE -16 10-9...SR: Jacksonville 2-0)

SAN DIEGO 27 - Kansas City 18—This year’s first meeting in K.C. was easy
pickings for S.D., which was up 20-0 at the half and could have led by more. Since
that game, the Chiefs have dumped their top RB (Larry Johnson) and have seen
their top WR (Dwayne Bowe) suspended. But early indications are those moves
might have resulted in addition by subtraction. Moreover, K.C. (5-1 vs. line last
6) has since added former Charger WR Chris Chambers (10 recs. for 249 yards
with Chiefs).
(09-S. Diego 37-K. CITY 7...S.17-10 S.36/135 D.31/121 S.18/30/0/268 K.11/26/3/82 S.0 K.0)
(08-S. DIEGO 20-K. City 19...S.23-19 S.26/92 K.18/76 S.27/36/2/308 K.27/41/0/263 S.0 K.0)
(08-S. Diego 22-K. CITY 21...22-22 K.31-102 S.19/68 S.34/48/1/326 K.20/29/1/175 S.2 K.1)
(09-San Diego -5 37-7; 08-S. DIEGO -15 20-19, San Diego -6 22-21...SR: Kansas City 50-48-1)

*BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 14—First meeting since LY’s trio of hotlycontested,
ultra-physical affairs, the last one for the AFC championship. Joe
Flacco has come a long way since that first overtime game LY, and he might not
have to deal with nemesis Troy Polamalu (check status), who sprained his other
knee two weeks ago. Steelers (1-4 vs. line away) having a tough post-Super Bowl
year so far. Ravens have been seeing their defense decline a bit from LY’s
intimidating unit, but it’s still good enough to keep the pressure on “Big Ben”
(check status). TV—NBC
(08-PITT 23-Balt. 20 (OT)...B.16-11 B.33/103 P.28/69 P.14/24/1/168 B.16/31/0/140 P.0 B.1)
(08-Pitt 13-BALT. 9...P.18-12 B.31/112 P.26/92 P.22/40/0/220 B.10/26/1/89 P.2 B.0)
(08-PITT 23-Balt. 14...B.13-11 B.25/73 P.28/52 P.16/33/0/223 B.13/30/3/125 P.1 B.1)
(08-PITT -5 23-20 (OT), Pitt +3 13-9, PITT -6 23-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Pittsburgh 18-10)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30

*New England 34 - NEW ORLEANS 27—Initial thought on this one is to
look “over” the total, which is not cheap. But these two passers, the Monday night
atmosphere in the Big Easy, and Saints’ heavenly 14-4 Superdome “over” mark
more than hint at the attempt. N.O. held out RB Reggie Bush (knee) last week vs.
Bucs. And DT Sedrick Ellis and CBs Tracy Porter & Jabari Greer were out as well.
Brees & Co. 9-4 vs. spread last 13 home. But Brady & Co. 8-4 their last 12 on the
road and 6-2 when getting points. Saints’ DB injuries figure to give Tom Terrific
and his receivers the edge. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-NEW ENGLAND -9' 24-17...SR: New England 8-3)

PLAYBOOK

Thursday, November 26

Texas over TEXAS A&M by 21
Texas HC Mack Brown may want to borrow a line from Bon Jovi and tell his
Longhorns “we’ve got to hold on to what we’ve got.” And what they’ve “got”
is an engraved invitation to the BCS title game in Pasadena. That is, of course,
with a victory in College Station and a Big 12 title game win over Nebraska.
Mack’s men are defi nitely more “than halfway there” but the Aggies have
been a bit of a puzzle for Texas QB Colt McCoy. While McCoy set an NCAA
record with his 43rd win as a starter, he is just 1-2 SU in his three tussles with
A&M, with a loss in his lone trip to Kyle Field. In fact, the Aggies have covered
three of the last four in the series and four of fi ve on this fi eld. They’re also 6-2
ATS as double-digit home dogs and a sparking 14-2-2 ATS as conference home
dogs versus an opponent off a win of six or more points. While we would love
to snap the rubber band and fade the perfect Longhorns, our PLAYBOOK.com
database reminds us that: undefeated teams in their last game of the season
are 13-3 ATS when facing a .555 or less opposition. The visitors’ 8-3 ATS log as
favorites of 12 or more points versus a conference opponent with revenge –
along with their solid 12-5 ATS regular season weekday mark – will likely keep
us more interested in seconds of pumpkin pie than this Big 12 nightcap.

Friday, November 27

Pittsburgh over WEST VIRGINIA by 1
Normally we’d be all over the home-dog hosts who carry double revenge
against a visitor who arrives with their highest ranking since the days of Dan
Marino. Our database would also be in our corner, noting the Mountaineers
are a not-so-hospitable 38-5 SU in their last 43 home games, including a spotless
7-0 SU off a SU loss. Even series history chimes in, pointing out that the dog has
cashed fi ve of the last seven meetings. However, our red-hot MIDWEEK ALERT
(12-3 last 15 Best Bets) warns us that Bill Stewart’s hillbillies have dropped a
minus 123 net yards ‘in the stats’ from Game Seven out compared to their
fi rst six games of the campaign while Wannstedt’s surging Panthers are a plus
63 net yards in the same span. And you know how we feel about yardage
mismatches. While we can certainly make a case for the No. 9 Cats who roar
on Fridays with a perfect 5-0 ATS record, their 1-4 ATS mark as road favorites of
fi ve or less points, along with WVU’s 4-0 ATS score after facing Cincy, tempers
our enthusiasm. Wannstedt’s personal 3-9 ATS log against rested opposition,
including 1-5 SU and ATS if his team also enters with zzz’s, keeps us off the
prowl for now.

LOUISVILLE over Rutgers by 1
It’s hard to imagine anything incredible about the Cardinals’ 4-7 season but they
do highlight our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK. That 18-1 SU mark at home
versus an opponent off a double-digit loss, along with a 4-0 ATS tightener, cannot
be overlooked. They’ll close out their 3rd-straight bowl-less season against a
Rutgers bunch who got caught with their pants down last week at Syracuse and
who is a pathetic 2-13 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in ‘Last Road Games’. The Scarlet
Knights’ “in the red” 1-10 ATS log as favorites of seven or less points should
bode well for Louisville backers who will likely be waving goodbye and good
riddance to HC Steve Kragthorpe. Rutgers’ upset loss to the Orange should also
prove benefi cial to the embattled Kragthorpe as here’s a stat we’re confi dent
you won’t fi nd anywhere but PLAYBOOK: since last year, the only four teams
that Syracuse has managed to beat are 0-4 SU and ATS in their next contest.
Talk about hitting rock bottom! Incredibly, we’ll grab the points.

AKRON over E Michigan by 16
Hopefully, the day-after-Thanksgiving Day sales are as good in Akron and
Ypsilanti as they are in the rest of the country. We wouldn’t expect too much
interest between these MAC cellar dwellers – even from the home faithful. The
Zips have won four of six SU since the series became lined, but it’s been the
Eagles who have garnered the cash in fi ve of the six meetings, including all
three on this fi eld. Our trends also favor the winless visitors who arrive with a
4-0 ATS ‘Last Road Game’ log while the hosts check in with a futile 0-6 ATS ‘Last
Home Game’ mark. EMU’s 10-4 ATS record as conference dogs of six or more
points should have things bouncing their way as they claim another Rubber
Bowl ATS win – maybe. Read our lips: Forget these Zips. In fact, we say forget
the game and shop ‘til you drop.

Buffalo over KENT ST by 7
The Golden Flashes could reach the .500 level for just the 2nd time in Doug
Martin’s six-year tenure but they’ll have to defeat a Buffalo team that has
beaten them three of the last four, including the most recent two times on this
fi eld. Turner Gill’s Bulls are riding out the string but they are a matador-like
10-1 ATS away versus less than .500 opposition, including a 42-17 stampeding
of Miami Ohio last week in Oxford. With the Flashes 1-6 ATS in ‘Last Home
Games’ and a punch-drunk, Dean Martin-like 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS off a
loss versus an opponent off a double-digit win, we’re downright bull-headed
about another Buffalo ATS road score.

COLORADO ST over Wyoming by 3
What the heck happened to Colorado State? After fi nishing the 2008 season
with three straight wins, including a New Mexico Bowl win over Fresno State,
HC Steve Fairchild set the bar high and expectations were raised in Fort Collins.
The 2009 season started promisingly with three more wins, including upsets of
Colorado and Nevada, but since then the Rams have been anything but tough.
Last week’s gut-wrenching loss to winless New Mexico was their 8th straight
defeat and just might cause the 2nd-year HC to raise a few things in a different
bar all together. The hosts do have a little to cheer about in this season fi nale as
they have dominated the Cowboys in the series, winning four of the last fi ve SU
and ATS – including the last three in this building. However, there’s really not
much to like about either of these Mountain West pretenders. Wyoming can
become bowl eligible with a win this afternoon but their 1-7 ATS effort in ‘Last
Road Games’ says that’s probably unrealistic. What’s real is our lack of interest
in this meaningless season-ender. We suggest you look elsewhere as well.

OHIO U over Temple by 3
Temple versus Ohio U for the MAC East crown. That’s the equivalent of Oprah
and Rosie vying for the Talk Show bikini title! After an 0-2 start, the Owls have
reeled off nine straight wins, but our wise PLAYBOOK.com database reminds
us that teams in the last game of the season off nine wins exact are 1-6 ATS
if they are not off an ATS loss. Temple has been “Golden” in conference play
under their 4th-year HC, posting an 18-8-3 ATS mark, but as legendary country
and western singer Conway Twitty once sang, “They’ve never been this far
before.” The 8-3 Bobcats will be looking to capture their 2nd East title in Frank
Solich’s fi ve-year reign and we like their chances. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS as
conference home dogs off a SU win and 3-0 SU and ATS in ‘Last Home Games’.
Brief series history also backs the hosts as they defeated the Owls, 23-7, two
years ago on this fi eld and outgained the visitors last season, 267-143, in a 14-
10 road loss. Ironically, both teams have faced lined opponents with identically
weak 33-69 win-loss records. Nontheless, we’ll side with Solich and his Bobcats
who have “been there, done that.”

4* BEST BET
Marc’s SEE YA LATER, ALLIGATOR article on Page 2 tells us all we
need to know about this SEC bloodbath. As always, though, we have
plenty more ammo where that came from. For starters, since 1980 these
two have hooked up eight times at Jordan-Hare Stadium and the hosts
have come away with wins in six of them, including the last three in a
row. Before this season, the Tide have been favored only once at this
venue – a meager 3.5-point choice back in 1999 and now are being
asked to lay doubles. And speaking of doubles, the Tigers have made
their mark as double-digit conference dogs, producing a strong 4-1 ATS
record. They’ve also delivered the cash in three of their four weekday
home games. We know all about ‘Bama’s 36-0 thrashing of the Tigers
last season as it forced the so-called ‘voluntary’ resignation of longtime
HC Tommy Tuberville. Aubbie’s 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS effort off a shutout
loss since 1977 says payback is in order. Here’s one more thought for the
‘Nicktator’ to ponder: the Tigers are 15-4 SU and ATS versus undefeated
SEC opposition. The Tide’s last win in Auburn? We don’t need Bill Haley
and his Comets to tell us it’s been a while, crocodile. Their 2-5 ATS log in
‘Last Road Games’ says it’ll be a bit longer. It’s a take.
AUBURN over Alabama by 3

TULSA over Memphis by 13
After a 4-1 start, Todd Graham’s Golden Hurricane have turned into a tropical
depression. They’ve dropped six straight and Graham’s high-powered offense
has become more of a listless breeze. They should end the season on a winning
note, however, as the injury-riddled Tigers come to town. Tommy West’s defense,
especially the secondary, has been ravaged with injuries and the recent results
have been predictable: fi ve straight losses, allowing 43 PPG in the process. Our
database tells us the Tigers bring some meaty ATS numbers into this contest to
at least warrant a look. They are a profi table 16-5 ATS as double-digit dogs off
a SU loss and a healthy 7-1 ATS away off an away game. While West hasn’t had
quite what you would call the same appeal in Memphis as Elvis, this is HIS swan
song and we’ll look for a good effort for the well-liked coach. If you play it,
take the ‘Hound’ dogs in this Gene Pitney special as they have won four of the
last fi ve SU on this fi eld whenever they’ve been “24 hours from Tulsa.”

CINCINNATI over Illinois by 10
This is a very dangerous spot for the unbeaten Bearcats who host the
underachieving but capable Illini in the middle of a West Virginia/Pittsburgh
sandwich. Ron Zook’s bunch have won two of their last three and have fl ourished
as non-conference double-digit dogs with a 7-2 ATS mark. Zook, himself, has
been no slouch when tackling undefeated foes, winning 10 of 20 outright and
going 15-5 on the ATS scoreboard, including a perfect six-for-six as a dog of 14
or more points. There’s no debating the Bearcats are the superior squad but
they have not fared well against the Big Ten, registering a feeble 1-12 SU mark,
including an 0-3 ATS record if that Big Ten foe arrives off a SU loss. Brian Kelly’s
group also carry a 1-4 ATS weight as non-conference favorites of eight or more
points. Before jumping on the nation’s 5th-ranked squad, you may want to jot
this down: 10-0 or greater teams with a week of rest are just 19-9 SU and 11-17
ATS, including 1-8 ATS if they are off a spread loss of more than two points. We
told you this could be a dangerous spot – proceed with caution.

COLORADO over Nebraska by 3
Another coach likely heading for the exit door is Colorado’s Dan Hawkins.
After a brilliant fi ve-year stint at Boise State, which saw him win 53 of
64 games, he likely leaves Boulder with a 16-33 resume. Or, 17-32 if our
database has any say in the matter. The Huskers have already clinched the
Big 12 North title with their hard-fought win over Kansas State last week
and we wouldn’t blame them for overlooking the Buffs and setting their
sights on Texas. Nebraska’s last two wins have been of the ‘phony’ variety
(won the games, lost the stats) and they could be walking into a trap this
afternoon at Folsom Field. The Buffaloes have been terrifi c as double-digit
dogs when they carry a less than .500 record into the mix, posting a stellar
15-3-1 ATS mark which tightens to an IRS-evading 12-1-1 ATS log when
they enter off a loss. They’ve also been money in the bank as conference
home dogs seeking revenge versus an opponent off a win of nine or more
points with a Boise-like 10-1 ATS record. Keep a close eye on the line as
our database notes Nebraska HC Bo Pelini and his ‘Kids of the Corn’ are a
frightening 0-6 ATS as double-digit conference favorites. In a Longhorn
look-ahead, expect the Buffs playing against a conference revenger. Houston
counters with a solid 7-1-1 ATS
Log with conference revenge and a 4-1 ATS record as C-USA favorites of more
than 14 points. However, we can’t trust that leaky Houston defense (451 yards
and 29.3 points per game) enough to lay the hefty price here… particularly since
the Owls’ largest margin of defeat in the last fi ve seasons in this series was only
17 points. Looks like we’re sidelined again.

IDAHO over Utah State by 6
This season’s feel-good story comes straight out of Moscow, Idaho where the
perpetually downtrodden Vandals have fought their way to an incredible
7-4 record. We certainly didn’t see it coming. Former head coach Tom Cable
logged 11 wins in four seasons with Idaho, followed by 10 wins in four years
from his successor, Nick Holt. Current coach Robb Akey was actually on pace to
win fewer games than his predecessors, visiting victory lane just THREE times
in his fi rst two seasons. But somehow the 2009 Vandals caught fi re from the
get-go, roaring out to a 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS start. And even though they’ve
been whipped by conference powers Boise State and Fresno State in their
previous two outings, the Spud Boys appear poised to reach their fi rst bowl
game since the Big Bang. In fact, if we had a vote for Coach of the Year, we
wouldn’t hesitate to cast it for Akey. Utah State limps into the Kibbie Dome
off a demoralizing loss to Boise State (actually owned the lead before being
blown out in the second half) and the Aggie defense has allowed season-high
yards in two of their last three games. Idaho has rung the register in three of
the last four series meetings but don’t jump onto the Vandals before checking
the status of QB Nathan Enderle, who missed the Boise State game two weeks
ago with an arm injury. However, if Enderle can go, we’re putting our dough
on Idaho. Do you believe in miracles?

WASHINGTON over Wash St by 20
If there’s one head coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision who has proved
beyond all reasonable doubt that he was NOT ready for the big-time, it’s
Washington State’s Paul Wulff. Take a gander at these damning results... The
Cougars won two games in 2008, Wulff’s fi rst season, over pitiful Portland
State and winless Washington. Their lone victory this year came in overtime
against SMU. Total record to date? Just 3-21 SU. A main contributor to WSU’s
debacle has been its inability to compete within the Pac 10. Last season the
Cougars went 1-8 in conference play, losing by an average score of 50-9. They’re
currently winless in the league this year, getting smacked by a 41-10 margin.
But the absolute worst part of it all is this: when Washingon State takes the
fi eld against Pac 10 foes, they immediately fall down and can’t get back up,
outscored in the fi rst half of play by a mind-blowing 213-30! Wulff should do
the folks in Pullman a huge favor and resign in shame after the Apple Cup
game against Washington. The Huskies got off to a promising 2-1 start this year
under new head coach Steve Sarkisian but they’ll be home for the holidays, too.
With the Cougars getting gashed for 40 or more points in each of their last fi ve
games and U-Dub losing the stats in nine consecutive contests, can you blame
us for not wanting to get involved in this mess?

ARIZONA ST over Arizona by 3
‘Duel in the Desert.’ How many licks does it take to get to the center… sorry,
wrong question. How in the world can Mike Stoops get his Wildcats up after
back-to-back heartbreaking losses – the last one an overtime back-breaker that
cost them a shot at the roses? We feel bad for Stoops but you know our distaste
for OT losers laying points. Series history, as well, tells us to grab the home dog
as the host has won fi ve of the last six outright. In addition, Dennis Erickson’s
Sun Devils shine as conference home dogs, generating a 14-6-1 ATS record,
including 4-0 SU and ATS versus a foe off back-to-back losses. Sorry Mike,
but it looks like the Devils are on their way up and will be bringing home the
‘Territorial Cup’ for the 4th time in fi ve years. Grab the points in the ‘Tootsie
Pop’ special.

Boston College over MARYLAND by 7
Will the ‘Fridge’ door be closing today for Maryland’s Ralph Friedgen? The
Terps’ HC is suffering by far the worst season of his successful nine-year career,
registering only two wins (one FBS) and missing a bowl for the fi rst time since
2005. If this is Ralph’s fi nal sendoff, it doesn’t look good, as his bunch have
been handled by BC four of the past fi ve years. His Turtles have also been slow
to close out ‘Last Home Games’, losing three of four in SU and ATS fashion.
It may seem easy to soar with an Eagles’ team that has landed the money in
six of seven ‘Last Road Games’ but don’t forget they are coming off an upset
at home to North Carolina that cost them a shot at the ACC title. Also don’t
forget this little gem from our powerful database: new coaches with winning
records are just 12-24 ATS away in the last game of the season. When the
Fridge door is closed, does the light stay on or does it turn off? You make
the call.

Miami Fla over S FLORIDA by 8
You can bet the Bulls will be treating this one like a Big East championship game
as Big Brother comes to town. And we realize this will be in front of a raucous
Raymond James Stadium crowd. However, the problem for Jim Leavitt’s crew
is two-fold. After a 5-0 start, his Bulls are starting to wilt. They have dropped
95 net yards ‘in the stats’ from Game Seven out and, more importantly, three
of fi ve on the fi eld. In their two games against ranked opponents (Cincy, Pitt)
this season, they have been outscored 75-31. The second issue for the hosts is
they are facing an 8-3 Hurricane team that is hell-bent on fi nishing the season
with 10 wins and re-establishing their ootball prowess from years past. The
Canes are also looking to complete a non-conference sweep for the fi rst time
in four years and fi nish with a 4-0 recruiting mark against Florida foes. Miami
QB Jacory Harris is listed as questionable but he played the last game with a
sleeve on his passing hand and we expect him to start this intra-state battle.
The Bulls came up empty in their 27-7 loss at the ‘U’ back in 2005 and we see
more of the same this afternoon in Tampa. If Jacory is a go, so are we – and ‘U’
should be too!

LSU over Arkansas by 1
Despite Les Miles’ bonehead sideline work at the end of the Ole Miss game
last week, his Tigers did manage to deliver our 10* College Football Game
of the Year. Miles and his Bengals were getting points in that contest but
now he takes on the role of conference favorite – and we can’t get off the
bandwagon quick enough. For starters, Miles is a clueless 2-13-1 ATS as a
conference home favorite in his LSU career and his Tigers have dropped 12
of their last 13 ATS as conference home favorites of 21 or less points. His
bunch has also lost their roar when hunting for conference revenge (lost at
Arkansas, 31-30, in last season’s fi nale), posting a putrid 2-6 ATS mark – and
are a mind-boggling 0-5 ATS in ‘Last Home Games.’ Bobby’s Petrino’s Hogs,
meanwhile, enter with some stellar numbers. They have won the last two SU
in the series, have covered three of the last four overall and have brought
home the bacon three of the last four times on this fi eld. They are also
a money-making 6-1 ATS as dogs versus conference revenge. Despite the
defensive defi ciencies, we’ll grab the points with the better coach. In this
case, ‘Les’ is certainly not more.

SAN JOSE ST over New Mexico St by 7
We might not know the way to San Jose but we do know we are NOT about
to lay double-digits with a group of Spartans who have been outgained by an
average of 198 YPG in their last six contests and are allowing 6.3 YPR. With
that being said, it hasn’t exactly been a walk in Carlsbad Caverns National Park
for an Aggies’ squad that has been outgained by an inconceivable 323 YPG in
their last six games and is allowing an equally pathetic 5.8 YPC. It’s lucky for
these two defenses that neither team can run the ball (San Jose State 2.7 YPR,
New Mexico State 3.5 YPR). Our suggestion to both coaches: call 1-800-Renta-
Running Back immediately. We’re sure San Jose will be out to win one for
the Gipper as veteran HC Dick Tomey has decided to call it quits but we can’t
stomach double-digit favorites with these kind of numbers. .

STANFORD over Notre Dame by 1
We don’t know who has lost more swagger… Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh, who
saw his BCS bowl dreams end with a loss to Cal, or Irish head man Charlie Weis
who will most likely be home for the holidays for the second time in three
years. One thing is certain, Charlie WILL be staying home as rumors suggest
that Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald is already signed, sealed and delivered to
become ND’s next top man. While we know Notre Dame can’t be trusted laying
points, we have no problem grabbing them with the high-powered visitors.
They delivered for us against Pitt and we expect similar results this evening in
Stanford. Let’s not forget that their fi ve losses this season were by a combined
21 points. The Domers have also been as ‘golden’ as WR Tate when visiting the
Pac 10, posting a solid 17-10-1 SU mark and a perfect 9-0 ATS log as pick or
dogs of less than eight points. With Stanford 0-4 ATS as favorites after their
annual rivalry with Cal and just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS the last eight in this series,
we’ll go straight to the Notre Dame betting window. Tell ‘em Charlie sent ya.

UNLV over San Diego St by 3
With the Rebels 2-17-1 ATS as favorites versus losing opposition and misfi ring
badly of late, we’d normally be all over the underdog Aztecs who have
dominated the series to the tune of 6-1 SU and ATS the last seven games.
However, after a 4-4 start, the Brady Hoke Bunch has dropped their last three
SU, ATS and ‘In The Stats’. We can understand the TCU and Utah contests but
the SU home loss to Wyoming as seven-point favorites has us concerned. This is
in no way a vote of confi dence for lame-duck HC Mike Sanford and his not-so-
Runnin’ Rebels, who have been outgained in their last three games by a total of
896 yards. If you play it, take it, but there are far better options in Sin City.

USC over Ucla by 12
The knee-jerk reaction would be to back the rested Trojans who have won the
last fi ve at home in the series, covered four of them, and enter as seemingly
reasonable 13-point favorites. Remember, just one short year ago USC was
installed as a 33-point ROAD choice. However, we haven’t been in this business
for 34 years by knee-jerking – and we’re not about to start now. Simply put,
we cannot lay double-digits with a team who has dropped their last four in a
row ‘in the stats’ and just allowed the most points ever in school history. Even
HC Pete Carroll doesn’t “have the right words to describe being humbled like
that.” While the Bruins have brought home the cash in each of the last three
meetings and are a profi table 5-1 ATS as double-digit conference dogs, the
large line swing tells us there’s not enough value to play the visitors. Call it
an act of experience, but even the Bruins’ 1-5 ATS road mark with conference
revenge and the Trojans’ 6-2 ATS log as conference favorites of 15 or less is not
enough to get us to mount the wooden horse.

HAWAII over Navy by 3
Hawaii needs to post wins in their fi nal two games to become bowl eligible
and we like their chances against the visiting Middies. For starters, the surging
Warriors enter this fray on a 3-0 SU and ‘ITS’ streak. They are also a formidable
10-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs, including a spotless 7-0 ATS if the
opponent enters off a SU win. We all know about Military discipline, but it’s
obvious our armed forces like getting “lei’d” too as evidenced by their 3-10
ATS mark in their 13 trips to the Aloha State. The usually well-equipped Middies
are starting to ‘leak oil’, dropping the stats in each of their last 3 contests –
including their last win versus Delaware two weeks ago. We’re also not keen
on backing favorites with bowl bids in their back pocket as Navy has already
accepted a bid to play in the Texas Bowl. The Swabbies’ 0-3 ATS mark as road
favorites before battling Army seals it. We’re going to enjoy this late-night
affair; grab a Mai Tai and join us.

Green Bay over DETROIT by 13
Feed the family, walk the dog and slice up the pumpkin pie. It’s Turkey Day and
that means it’s time to share thanks with those we care about the most on this
day of giving. A staple on Thanksgiving is Detroit at home to kickoff a day of
football action. The Lions have not roared lately on Turkey day, going 0-5 SU and
ATS the last fi ve years. They are also just 7-22-1 ATS in games off a win, including
1-9-1 ATS when facing a .600 or greater opposition. The clincher, though, is this
delectable tidbit from our database. It tells us that teams off back-to-back wins
are 16-5 SU and ATS on Butterball Day, including 12-1 SU and ATS as a favorite.
Back the Pack and add a little extra whipped cream to the pie, thank you.

DALLAS over Oakland by 16
Speaking of giving thanks on this day, as football fans we’d like to extend our
gratitude to the Cowboys for showing up for work on this holiday. They’ve
rewarded their backers handsomely as well, going 13-5 ATS on Thanksgiving
Thursday since 1990, including 7-0 SU and ATS against losing teams. While
the Raiders are making their Turkey day debut, they are 0-5 ATS on Thursdays.
With Oakland off its stunning win over the Bengals and just 4-11 ATS in its next
game off a SU underdog win (0-2 this year, with losses 23-3 and 38-0), look for
Dallas to improve on its 16-3 ATS mark as November home chalk against losing
teams here today. And go easy on that pie, will you?

NY Giants over DENVER by 3
The NFL Network takes over Thanksgiving night when the Broncos host the
Giants in this non-conference clash. Like forgotten turkeys left in the oven
without a timer, both teams have been burned in the pointspread wars of
late, bringing a collective 0-9 ATS mark into this fray. Can’t like the Giants’ 0-5
ATS mark as non-division road chalk of three or more points before a division
hoster. The former Kings of the Road are currently 0-2 SU and ATS in their last
two away games and just 1-6 ATS as favorites in games before Cowboy clashes.
Meanwhile, Denver returns to the scene of the crime where they dropped a
32-3 decision to San Diego last Sunday. We like the fact that the Broncos are
10-2 SU and ATS at home off an immediate home loss, including 6-0 SU and
ATS when they own a winning record. With the Big Apples having exited the
penthouse and now looking for trailers to rent, we’ll order up a slice of

4* BEST BET
Perfection meets dejection in this AFC South battle when Peyton Manning
matches serves with Matt Schaub at Reliant Stadium. The feeling here is
the dejection should be short lived as the Texans fi gure to bounce back and
hand the Colts their fi rst loss of the 2009 season. Yes, you read it right. Not
convinced? Let us lay it out for you. It starts with the fact that teams off
a SU loss as Monday Night home favorites are 5-0 ATS since 1990 in their
next game when facing an undefeated opponent, including 4-0 SU and
ATS the last four. Next, factor in Houston’s bounce-back resilience in home
games off an immediate home loss (8-2 SU and ATS in its franchise history).
Finally, add to the mix the Texans’ brilliant 13-2 ATS mark as a division dog
in games off back-to-back losses, including 6-0 ATS with a win percentage
of .285 or greater and you have the ingredients of an upset-deluxe. Indy’s
recent penchant for close-call games (last four contests decided by total of
10 points) does them in here today. How about them Texans!
HOUSTON over Indianapolis by 7

CINCINNATI over Cleveland by 14
If you are Cleveland, where do you turn from here? After embarrassing
themselves with fi ve consecutive games in which they failed to gain 200 yards
and averaging less than six points per game over the same span, the Browns
scored more points in one game than they combined in the aforementioned
six games – only to come up one point short against the Lions last week. So
now they take to the road to face division-leading Cincinnati who is smarting
off last week’s stunning loss at Oakland. Saving grace for Brady Quinn is
the fact that the Bengals are 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS as home against division
opponents off a loss. We’re not buying into that. We’re also not buying a
side in this contest. To that we say take a cue from Kansas and “Carry on my
wayward son.”

MINNESOTA over Chicago by 6
The Vikes are pressuring New Orleans for top honors in the NFC, and rightfully
so. Minny has only one loss this season, a heartbreaker against the defending
Super Bowl champion Steelers at Pittsburgh. The problem with all the adulation
is that it comes at a price, one that is levied by the oddsmaker. Today marks the
third straight week Purple 4 fi nds himself installed as a double-digit favorite, a
rare occurrence in the NFL. That’s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this role
are just 20-41 ATS since 1980, including 13-33 ATS when playing an opponent
that is seeking revenge. With that, look for the Bears to improve on their 10-0
ATS mark in games off a SU and ATS loss when taking on an opponent off a
double-digit win here today. We’re going Bear hunting today.

PHILADELPHIA over Washington by 6
The key to this contest is gauging how Washington reacts after losing by one
point in the late stages at Dallas last week. According to our fi ndings, the
answer is good. That’s because the Skins are 11-1 ATS as dogs off a Cowboys
loss. In addition, teams off a one-point loss as double-digit dogs are 7-2 ATS as
dogs in the follow-up game. The Eagles got off the schneid with a hard-fought
win Sunday night at Chicago. Philly won the fi rst meeting between these two
division rivals, 27-17, a month ago at Washington – a game in which they were
outstatted. We like the fact that the Redskins have won and covered three of
the last four games in Philly. With that, we’ll make a Hog call this afternoon.

TENNESSEE over Arizona by 6
If there is a man with a hotter hand than Vince Young, let him come forth now
and speak his piece. Since being inserted into the starting lineup, Young has
keyed a 4-0 SU and ATS resurgence for the Titans who, suddenly, have visions
of becoming the fi rst team in NFL history to start a season 0-6 and make the
playoffs. Don’t laugh. With three of their fi nal four games to conclude the
season likely being against losing teams, now is the time for Tennessee to ‘VY’
for a brass ring. And why not? Following Monday night’s win at Houston, Young
owns a terrifi c 22-12 SU and ATS record as a starting quarterback in this loop,
including 20-8 ATS as a dog or favorite of four or less points. With Arizona
playing its 5th road game in seven weeks, we can see signs of fatigue. Couple
that with the Red Birds’ spotty 4-14 SU and ATS mark in non-division games off
back-to-back division duels and we have the makings of Tennessee two-step.

ST. LOUIS over Seattle by 3
With starting QB Marc Bulger out 3-6 weeks with a fractured leg, journeyman
Kyle Boller assumes the reins for the Rams this week. With that, we bring you
the ‘Boller Report’: In two starts earlier this season with St. Louis, Boller was
beheaded in a 35-0 loss at San Francisco and a week later in a 38-10 mugging
on this fi eld by Minnesota. Those losses dropped Boller’s record as a starter
in this league to 5-14 ATS as a dog. Worse, when taking seven or less points,
Boller is 1-8 SU and ATS. That’s the bad news. The lone bright spot on Boller’s
ledger has been his play at home in division games where he stands 4-1 SU
and ATS. Enter the Seahawks, a team with troubles of their own. Seattle’s
0-7-1 ATS mark as division favorites of seven or less points in games off a
double-digit loss is hardly a sign of confi dence. Nor is their 0-5 SU mark on
the road this season. Bottom line is this is the 3rd straight road game for the
Seabags and the 3rd straight home game for the Shams. With the road team
7-15-1 ATS in this scheduling quandary, and St. Louis out to avenge a 28-0
loss in its season opener to Seattle, we’ll focus on Boller’s bettor role.

3* BEST BET
The coaching change in Buffalo may not have met with desired results
last week but the Bills were promising in defeat. They will look to
avenge a 28-point loss suffered at South Beach earlier this season
knowing they are a mind-boggling 15-1 ATS at home in November
versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Meanwhile, Miami appears
to be back on track with wins in three of its last four games to get back
to the .500 plateau following a disastrous 0-3 SU and ATS start. The
problem we have drinking with water the Dolphins swim in is the fact
that Miami has been outgained in four of its fi ve games since the Bye
Week. That’s not conducive for a fragile team to be laying points on the
division road. Toss in Tony Sparano’s 0-5 ATS mark as a favorite of more
than 3.5 points and it looks like to us like the Bills put the Dolphins on
ice this Sunday.
BUFFALO over Miami by 10

Jacksonville over SAN FRANCISCO by 3
Woe are the Niners. Doesn’t it seem like every week we’re watching Mike
Singletary extol the virtues of his club, stating that is not what’s he has come
to expect and that they will play better. As much as we like Mike, the time has
come to put up or shut up. Following a 3-1 start to begin the 2009 campaign,
the Niners are on a 1-5 slide and appear headed toward their seventh straight
losing season. Through it all, Singletary is carving out a nice niche – that of
a good dog (7-1-2 ATS) and a lousy favorite (2-4-1 ATS laying less than seven
points). Meanwhile, Jack Del Rio has proven to be a quality dog in non-division
play, going 20-12 ATS in his career. Until the Niners get their swagger back,
we’ll back any and all dogs in their path.

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City by 14
Two schools of thought collide in this AFC West division battle. One: the Chiefs
fi nd themselves in prime letdown territory after knocking off the defending
Super Bowl champs last week. That’s not good news for KC fans as teams who
upset the defending Super Bowl champions are just 18-40-1 ATS when on the
road the next game, including 4-22 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and
ATS win. Two: Diego head coach Norv Turner continues to suck wind laying
doubles in division games at 0-7 ATS (0-2 this season). The Chargers mauled
the Chiefs, 37-7, at Arrowhead a month ago. It’s tempting to take doubles
with Kansas City (8-2 ATS in this role) but we’ve learned that discretion is
often times the better part of valor. We’ll make like the San Diego chicken
and pass.

Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE by 1
With Ben Roethlisberger questionable and backup Charlie Batch out, Dennis
Dixon looks to get his fi rst NFL start. That confuses matters as defending Super
Bowl champs are 13-5 ATS on the road off back-to-back losses. Add to that the
fact that the Steelers have NEVER lost three games in a row under Mike Tomlin,
going 2-0 SU and ATS off back-to-back defeats – with both wins by doubledigit
margins. The Ravens have problems of their own, now on a 2-5 slide after
opening the season with three straight wins. To their credit, they are 3-0 ATS at
home off a previous home loss under John Harbaugh. Until Big Ben’s situation
is resolved, we’re resolved to taking a seat on the bench with him for now.

ATLANTA over Tampa Bay by 13
Plain and simple, this is a matchup of a good team off back-to-back losses, playing
a bad team off back-to-back losses. That’s good news for Falcons’ fans as Atlanta
has been superb in games off a defeat under head coach Mike Smith, going 8-1
ATS off a loss during his tenure with the Falcons. While history tells us the Bucs
have given the Birds fi ts in this series (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS last two seasons), the
fact of the matter is this year’s Tampa squad is the worst in a long while. The
Bucs are the only team in the league to have been outgained in EVERY contest
they’ve played, while going 0-3 SU and ATS as dogs of more than 10 points this
season. Then again, Atlanta has NEVER covered the number as a favorite of 12
or more points (0-3 ATS) in the history of our database dating back to 1980. Plain
and simple, put a gun to our head and we’d likely tell you to shoot.

5* BEST BET
Like a fi ckle admirer, we’re back on our favorite team, the Panthers,
in their best role this week. After riding the Carolina money train as
underdogs since its Bye Week, we had to put on the brakes when they
crossed over into favorite land last week. Today, however, we’re buying
another ticket in hopes of a scenic ride – and we like what we see. For
openers, Carolina owns a picturesque 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS mark as
non-division road dogs of seven or less points against an opponent that
allowed 28 or more points in its last game. The Flyboys chip in with a
paltry 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS mark in their last 11 games as favorites, not to
mention their current state of affairs (1-6 SU and ATS last seven games).
We fi nish the journey with a gem from our database that tells us to: Play
Against any NFL non-division home favorite off a SU and ATS division
road dog loss if they allowed 30 or more points. That’s because these
teams are 19-44-1 ATS since 1980, including 9-17-2 SU and 6-21-1 ATS
when laying four or less points. Prepare to depart. This ride is over.
Carolina over NY JETS by 11

Monday, November 30

NEW ORLEANS over New England by 1
The game of the week in the NFL kicks off under the Monday night lights in
what could be a preview of SB XLIV in Miami. As expected, the Saints come into
this contest fully armored. Our database tells us that undefeated teams from
Game Six out excel in Monday night games, going 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS since
1997, including 6-0 ATS when exacting revenge. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in this
series and 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against the AFC since last season. On the fl ip
side, the Pats have won six straight Monday night games and are 7-2 ATS as
road dogs on Monday – and New England is also 25-2 SU in its last 27 games
against the NFC. Choose your weapon. This is going to be a war.

POWER SWEEP

AKRON 31 E Michigan 17 - An amazing fi nish LY as the Eagles took the lead w/3:49 left and blocked
a 26 yd FG with :30 left. UA’s holder caught it and ran for a FD and they got a TD run 2 plays later (:14
left). The HT is 7-1 SU and the dog is 5-2 ATS. This is EM’s 4th road game in 5 weeks. EM has led just
once since blowing a lead vs Ball St on Oct 24th and have been outscored by an avg of 49-17 in their
L/4 gms with their closest game being a 21 pt loss to WM. Akron has led in each of their L/7 gms (incl
four 4Q leads) but have faded due to a lack of depth from injuries. Akron has the off (#108-118) and
def (#103-118) edges. Against 4 common opp EM is 0-4 SU/ATS being outscored by an avg 40-8 and
outgained 443-244. Akron is 1-3 SU/ATS being outscored 38-19 and outgained 420-277. EM fi nishes
the season as one of only 2 FBS teams (WKU) winless.

KENT ST 23 Buffalo 20 - LY KS caught UB looking ahead to the MAC Title gm, snapping a 3 gm series
losing streak. Kent St led 24-21 and Buffalo had a 1&gl at the 6 but w/1:46 left they fumbled into the EZ.
Buf is 5-2 ATS. LY’s MAC Champ Buffalo broke a 3 gm losing streak vs 1 win Miami team last Wed and
after being the div fav at the start of the yr will fi nish with their 10th losing ssn the L11Y. Buf has the off
edge (#70-107) while KS has a small def edge (#77-91) and a large ST edge (#34-118) which has been
KS strength and UB’s weakness this year. UB QB Maynard is avg 229 ypg (59%) with an 18-13 ratio and
the Bulls have 5 players with 250+ yds rushing led by RB Nduka with 598 (6.2). KS’s QB Keith avg’d 215
ypg (57%) with a 14-11 ratio but only played 1 2H series LW and is OFY with a shoulder inj. RB Terry leads
with 633 (4.8) the #2 rusher has just 180 yds. Two weeks ago KS controlled their own destiny in the MAC
East race, but after 2 straight losses, needs to win here to fi nish 6-6 and will do it without QB Keith.

COLORADO ST 26 Wyoming 20 - 101st edition of the “Border War”. LY in Joe Glenn’s FHG, WY was
in control in the 1H with a 231-103 yd edge but CSU got a 51 yd TD pass with :10 left and then took
the momentum into the 2H and won 31-20 (+2) on the road. WY was tied at 10 LW in the 2Q but TCU
broke out with 35 unanswered pts, turning it into a 45-10 route. WY was held to 52 ttl yds in the 2H.
HC Christensen replaced QB Carta-Samuels (4-10-83) with his predecessor Benjamin, but he fi nished
with just 11 pass yds. The Rams are off a last-minute road loss to previously winless NM. Despite being
outgained 467-370, CSU traded scores with NM, going up 27-23 early 4Q. NM drove 46/6pl for a 37 yd
FG then, after a 27 yd punt, NM went 35/8pl and hit a 27 yd FG with :12 left. CSU tried to lateral on the
ensuing KO but it was stopped after a 15 yd gain. QB Stucker was inj’d late 1H (CS) and bkup Eastman
threw for 145 yds but did toss an int in the EZ. CSU is a disappointed team that wants to play the role of
spoiler here vs a Cowboy team which needs to win here to go to a bowl for the fi rst time since 2004.

OHIO 23 Temple 20 - This is the MAC East Championship game with the winner playing CM next week
in the MAC Champ game. This is just the 3rd meeting (HT is 2-0). The Bobcats have held the Owls to 209
yds in ‘07 and 143 LY (both ssn low for opp’s). Ohio is 6-14 SU in home fi nales. LY Ohio led 10-0 in the 4Q
(191-61 yd edge after 3Q) but a late fumble inside their own 20 set up TU for the comeback 14-10 win. Ohio
had a bye two wks ago, while Temple is playing an 11th st week and their 4th road gm in 6 wks. Temple, in
QB Stewart’s 3 starts, is avg 46 ppg after only avg 26 ppg under QB Charlton. They beat KS 47-13 LW but
both had 19 FD’s and TU only had a 399-320 yd edge but scored TD’s on a PR and an int, exploding for
38 2H pts (trailed 10-9 at half). Ohio beat NI 38-31 and also scored on a PR and an int but were outgained
421-247. Temple has the off (#84-103) and def (#59-74) edges but Ohio has the ST (#15-55) edge. TU’s
offense is led by RB Pierce(1308, 5.8) but he was inj LW and is expected to miss this (bkup Brown had 156
LW). Ohio is allowing 143.7 ypg rush (3.8) but did limit the MAC’s #1 rush off (NI) to 114 (3.2).

Alabama 30 AUBURN 20 - LY Bama (-14’) outgained Aub 412-170 in a 36-0 win ending a 6 game
losing streak in the Iron Bowl. It was the most lopsided Iron Bowl since ‘62 (38-0) Aub lost 3 fumbles
and Tuberville resigned following the loss. The visitor is 9-5 ATS in the Iron Bowl. Over the L/8Y (incl
6 wins) AU has been outgained by Bama by 268 total yds. The HD is 1-3 ATS in this rivalry. Aub had
the benefi t of a bye LW, but Bama is off an easy 45-0 win over FCS Chattanooga in which super RB
Ingram (1399, 6.8) rushed for 102 yds and 2 TD in little more than 1Q and rested along with many of
the other starters as AL led 35-0 at the half. Aub RB Tate has 1,209 yds (5.4) in a battle of 2 of the best
RB’s in the SEC. AL’s #3 D is only allowing 70.4 rush ypg (2.4) while Aub’s #44 D is allowing 170 rush
ypg (4.4). Aub is particularly thin at LB and DB which has caused problems late in gms. Bama has the
SEC Title gm on deck but covered LY in the same situation. The only time Aub has been a HD TY, they
upset Ole Miss 33-20 (+5’), but Bama is on a 6-0 streak as an AF. Bama might be in lookahead mode,
so the Tigers should keep it relatively close.

TULSA 38 Memphis 24 - Tulsa is 2-0 SU/ATS in CUSA play winning by a 36-22 avg. UM has won 5
straight regular season fi nales, incl road wins at USF and UTEP. This is the Tigers’ 3rd road game in 4
weeks and they are winless on the road TY (0-5 SU/ATS), losing by an avg score of 42-17. The Tigers
have not shown up the past 2 weeks after HC Tommy West was fi red. They have been outscored 86-35
and outgained by 198 ypg in those 2, incl last week’s 55-14 blowout loss at Houston. The UM defense
is ranked #115 allowing 461 ypg. Tulsa is also ending a disappointing season. The Hurricane had their
hopes for a 5th straight bowl dashed LW in a 44-34 loss at SMiss. They have lost 6 in a row SU (2-4 ATS)
for the 1st time since 2002. TU’s offense hasn’t been the same without OC Malzahn, who left for Aub after
last season. This year they are ranked #40 in NCAA avg 410 ypg after leading the NCAA LY (570 ypg).
WR/RS Damaris Johnson has been a bright spot for the Hurricane as he comes in #1 in the NCAA avg
229 all-purpose ypg. TU is 9-3 ATS in home fi nales and HC Graham wants to send his Sr’s out on a high
note, while also setting the tone for next season, so we expect the Hurricane to get the win.

CINCINNATI 37 Illinois 20 - 1st meeting. Cincy is 17-0 SU (5-2-1 ATS L4Y) hosting non-conf foes and
IL is 1-5 SU/ATS vs non-conf BCS. Zook used the bye as quazi-bowl practices, but did say that they won’t
play for 2010 by stacking the lineup with younger players the L/2. QB Williams (DNP vs NW) will start and
looks to become the 1st Illini with 10,000 total yds. IL is #72 in pass eff D (240, 60%, 11-4 ratio) with only
1 NCAA team (UNLV-3) having fewer int. Cincy has a huge game vs Pitt on deck and a win there would
give them a 2nd straight Big East champ/BCS bowl. The Bearcats spent the bye working on the run game
on both sides. UC avg 189 ypg (5.6) under the more mobile QB Collaros (332 rush yd) vs 147 ypg (5.2)
with better passer Pike (236, 64%, 17-3) who is expected to get the call here. UC is allowing 133 rush
ypg (3.5) including 202 (4.8) L/2 vs UConn and WV (spread like IL). UC has big edges on off (#10-53)
and ST (#28-107). IL is 8-1 ATS as an AD with 4 outright upsets including #1 OSU in ‘07 while UC is 2-5
ATS as a HF vs BCS tms L/2Y with lookahead being the biggest factor for the Bearcats.

BOWLING GREEN 34 Toledo 31 - These instate and arch rivals are just 26 miles apart. The home team
is 9-2 SU and they have avg’d 65 ppg the L9Y. LY’s BG win was the largest MOV in the series S/‘01 as
UT was held to -6 yds in the 1H and was outgained 534-196 in UT HC Amstutz and BG HC Brandon’s
fi nal gms. Toledo has been a dog 6 st yrs with 3 outright upsets. UT is 1-4 SU here and lost their last
trip 37-10 (+7) in ‘07. Toledo’s off and def coord both come from BG so they have added knowledge of
the personnel. Toledo needs this to become bowl eligible while BG needs it for a winning season. While
the off are close (T#51-76), BG has the def edge (#74-111) as they have improved since the return of
S PJ Mahone (susp 6 gms). However, BG has allowed 198.3 ypg rushing (5.5) and Toledo is avg 142.9
ypg (4.5) led by RB Collins with 773 (5.5). While Toledo has been troubled lately by QB injuries, BG’s
QB Sheehan is avg 319 ypg (64%) with a 19-6 ratio. His top target is WR Barnes who leads the NCAA
with 129 rec (11.7). The Rockets keep pace with BG’s high powered offense.

C MICHIGAN 31 N Illinois 21 - The Huskies had beaten the Chippewas 9 straight prior to B2B losses.
LY CM led 30-6 mid 3Q but NI recovered 2 onside kicks and scored 24 unanswered pts to force OT where
CM won 33-30. While NI is on a 2nd straight road game and traveling on a short week, CM has not played
since last Wed and is in their home fi nale and won their last game here vs NI, 35-10. With NI’s loss to Ohio,
CM is the MAC West Champ and has the MAC Championship on deck. The Huskies are 7-4 and look to be
the MAC’s #4 for a bowl (only 3 bowl tie-ins), so the Huskies do not want to back into one after two straight
losses. NI had 20-15 FD and 421-247 yd edges over Ohio but gave up a PR and an int for TD’s. Against
5 common opp CM was 5-0 SU/ATS and outscored them by an avg 46-17 and outgained them by an avg
496-306. NIll was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS outscored them by an avg 32-12 and outgained them by an avg
362-265. CM has off (#43-89) and def (#50-65) edges but NIll has the ST edge (#25-61).

KEY SELECTIONS

4* BYU over Utah - The dog is 12-4 ATS and 10 of the L/12 have been decided by a TD or less.
In LY’s #16 vs #8 meeting QB Hall threw a career high 5 int’s incl 3 in the 4Q leading to 14 Utah pts.
In both ‘06 and ‘07 BYU needed key late 4th down conv to rally for close wins but LY Utah at home
rolled 48-24 (-7). Utah is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in the “Holy War”. The Cougs are off a 38-21 win over AF,
delivering a 3 LPS Winner. BYU fi nished with 26-18 FD and 498-300 yd edges in a game where
RB Unga became BYU’s all-time leading rusher and QB Hall broke Ty Detmer and John Beck records.
The inspired D held AF to just 212 yds rush (3.8) which was their lowest vs a non-service academy
TY. Utah showed no hangover from the TCU loss putting up 38 1H pts vs SDSt and coasting to a 38-7
win. The Utes fi nished with 22-16 FD and 391-262 yd edges. Since taking over as the starter, true
frosh Wynn is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 4-2 ratio. This is a game circled on both teams calendars
annually but BYU is 12-8 (incl 1-0 vs Utah) as a HF S/’06 and gets revenge for LY’s beating.
FORECAST: BYU 37 Utah 20

3* Arizona over ARIZONA ST - Arizona enters the “Territorial Cup” in a strange situation knowing
that they have a regular ssn game following ASU for the 1st time S/’86. Their Rose Bowl aspirations
offi cially ended LW, however, as they dropped a heartbreaker in 2OT vs Oregon, a game that they led
by 10 pts early 4Q. The Sun Devils’ bowl hopes ended altogether LW vs UCLA although their stellar
def did not allow an off TD (Bruins 2 TD returns on ASU TO’s, just 292 yds for the game). In LY’s meeting
in Tucson, ASU needed a win to become bowl eligible but ran into a buzzsaw being outgained
389-162 in the 30-10 defeat (+10’). The road team is 13-4 ATS (9-8 SU) but ASU is 5-2 SU (3-5 ATS)
in this instate rivalry and the HT is 5-1 SU. The last 2 games (‘05 and ‘07) in Tempe have both been
decided by only a FG and while it’s interesting to note that both ASU (+12 ypg) and AZ (+84 ypg) have
outgained P10 opponents despite the discrepancy in their conf records TY. The Cats have proven to
be as solid as it comes in the conf TY while ASU is experimenting with their QB’s right now starting
3 different at the position in the L/3W (QB Szakacsy had 5 ttl TO’s vs UCLA). Expect a big rebound
performance after last week’s loss. FORECAST: Arizona 24 ARIZONA ST 14

3* Troy over LOUISIANA - A loaded Troy team playing an injury plagued ULL squad creates an
overwhelming situation for the Cajuns. Troy is going for a perfect 8-0 SBC mark after already clinching
the SBC’s automatic bowl berth. LW Troy continued its steam rolling of the SBC with a 47-21 win at
FAU. TU QB Levi Brown is avg 359 ypg (68%) with a 15-1 ratio in SBC play and shredded FAU for
477 yds. ULL’s comeback win LW over rival ULM was its sixth TY, creating an opportunity to play for
an at-large bowl berth. ULL has had a challenge in replacing Sails (inj) at RB, and has been outscored
79-30 in the 2H in its L/5 games. ULL did get TE Green back LW, but with a limited run game
its one-dimensional offense is facing a huge challenge against the league’s top pressure defense.
This contest may be labeled by some as just a warm up for Troy’s bowl game but the Trojans, under
19th year HC Blakeney, are too smart to fall into that trap. It’s business as usual for the Trojans and a
comfortable win. FORECAST: Troy 37 LOUISIANA 20

2* † Texas Tech over Baylor (Arlington) - BU HG played at Cowboy Stadium. TT has won 13 in a
row SU (8-2 ATS) with their avg win by 28 ppg. The Bears were outgained by 231 yds LW vs A&M ending
their bowl hopes. QB Florence is avg 198 ypg (62%) with a 6-9 ratio. TT handed OU its worst loss of the
ssn LW (239 yd edge) as Leach is now the winningest HC in TT history. QB Potts is avg 280 ypg (66%)
with an 18-11 ratio and played every snap LW most likely ending the Red Raiders QB carousel. TT is
ranked #28 in our pass eff def allowing 223 ypg (61%) with a 10-7 ratio while BU comes in at #53 (223
ypg, 62%, 14-9). BU runs the same style of off as TT but the Red Raiders do it better (470 ypg to 343
ypg) and TT has the def edge (#24-36). BU is not going bowling for a 15th straight yr and TT is coming off
its best performance under Leach and LY’s late season collapse ensures they keep focused in this one.
FORECAST: Texas Tech 45 Baylor 17

2* Rutgers over LOUISVILLE - Rutgers is 6-2 SU in the series and their 671 yds LY were the most
ever by a Schiano tm and the 63 pts were the most Rutgers has ever scored in a BE game. Rutgers
won 63-14 (-10’) at home vs a UL team with a banged up secondary. UL had been favored in the other
3 recent meetings but the HT is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. RU is 5-1 ATS on the BE road. For the 3rd straight
year RU trailed 14-0 to Syracuse but was unable to mount a comeback as the Knights were stunned
LW losing 31-13 to Syracuse (YES to Syr!!). RU played uncharacteristically sloppy on offense, defense
and was outcoached. RU entered the gm as #1 def in BE but all’d 424 to the #106 Syr off and the RU
off was held to 130 ttl yds!! Fr QB Savage is avg 160 ypg (54%) with a 10-4 ratio and RB Martinek (78
ypg, 5.0) will be more involved in the gm plan. L’Ville is off a 34-24 loss to USF all’g a ssn high 538 yds
to the same Bulls tm RU spanked. UL was fortunate early and often or the gm would have been out of
hand. This is UL’s fi nale but RU has slight off edge with big ST’s (#30-77) and def edges (#42-72). Last
week’s results give us good value here and the Knights rebound to fi nish the season strong.
FORECAST: Rutgers 27 LOUISVILLE 13

2* † Kansas (+) over Missouri (Kansas City) - Third straight at Arrowhead. The winner in the Border
Showdown has won by DD’s in 12 of their L/16 meetings. Dog is 10-4 ATS. KU lost its 6th gm in a
row LW after a 5-0 (ranked #17) start. The Jayhawks have also dropped 8 straight ATS. QB Reesing
is avg 283 ypg (63%) with an 18-9 ratio but over the L5W just 228 ypg (57%) 3-5. Mizzou beat ISU LW
(203 yd edge) securing a bowl invite. QB Gabbert is avg 273 ypg (60%) with a 22-7 ratio. KU is ranked
#47 in our pass eff def allowing 240 ypg (62%) with a 16-7 ratio while Mizzou comes in at #86 (240
ypg, 64%, 15-7). KU is just 7-21 SU and 5-23 ATS in Nov road/neutral gms and Mizzou is 4-1 SU/ATS
away from Columbia TY. KU does have some off-fi eld distractions but needs a win to become bowl
eligible and while we’ve played against KU many times as a Key Selection, the value and situation is
now clearly with them. FORECAST: Kansas (+) 28 Missouri 27

Texas at TEXAS A&M - HT in this instate rivalry is 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in B12
matchups. LY on Thanksgiving, UT held A&M to -24 yds rushing, posting the largest margin of victory in
the series since 1898. Last time here the Aggies led wire to wire and fi nished with a 533-357 yd edge.
UT is traveling on a short week and has the B12 Title gm on deck. A&M became bowl eligible LW but
is just 3-7 ATS in conf gms. Get this game as part of your Thanksgiving Executive Club Weekend
Package. Thanksgiving Executive Club Members will get opinions on all 4 sides and all 4 totals
Thanksgiving Day! These plays are released Wednesday at 3:00 pm ET. See pg 8 for details!

Pittsburgh 26 W VIRGINIA 23 - This year will be the 102nd meeting of “The Backyard
Brawl” (every yr since ‘43). Pitt spoiled #2 WV’s National Title hopes here in ‘07, which has been called the
biggest upset in Pitt and, arguably, BE history (+29, 13-9). LY Pitt trailed 15-7 in the 4Q and scored twice,
incl a 1 yd TD run with :52 left. WV is 4-2 vs ranked teams as a HD with 3 outright upsets incl #16 Pitt in ‘03.
WV gave #5 Cincy a scare up 14-7 before losing 24-21. Both QB Brown and RB Devine were playing thru
ankle injuries. Brown is avg 185 ypg (65%) with a 12-8 ratio and RB Devine avg 110 rush ypg (5.7, 51 ypg
3.6, L/3). The D is all’g 121 rush ypg (3.1) but 209 rush ypg (5.7) the L/2 to UL and Cincy. Pitt has their BE
showdown on deck (Cin) and are off a bye after a 27-22 win over ND 2W ago. Pitt led 27-9 with 12:44 left
and forced a fumble to seal the victory. QB Stull is avg’g 212 ypg (66%) with an 18-4 ratio and RB Lewis avg
129 rush ypg (5.8). The Panther D leads the NCAA with 41 sks and is all’g 101 rush ypg (3.1) incl 129 vs
Navy, 106 Conn, 38 Rut, and 66 ND. Pitt has the off (#23-46) and def (#19-27) edges while the ST’s edge
goes to WV (#39-66). It is tough to play at night in Morgantown but oddly WV is 1-5 ATS at home TY. Pitt is
6-1 ATS on the road in BE play S/’07 and win their 3rd straight vs WV for the 1st time since ‘80-’82.

BOISE ST 44 Nevada 30 - BSU is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with an avg MOV of 31 ppg.
BSU is 14-7 ATS under Petersen as a HF and UN is 6-12 as an AD under Ault. The
L/2 gms have been decided by one score (2 and 7 pts) after the prev 7 were decided
by 38.5 ppg (closest game being a 31 pt decision). These two are the lone unbeatens
in the WAC. Last time here (‘07), these two comb for 1,266 yds and 136 pts in 4 OT’s
in a 69-67 BSU victory (-26’) which set the record for most pts in an NCAA IA game
S/’37 when offi cial record keeping began. Since Oct, UN has rushed for 3,565 yds
(446 ypg) with 43 TD while racking up 4,785 ttl yds (598 ypg) and LW became the
1st tm in NCAA history to have 3 players top 1,000 yds rush in 1 ssn (Taua 1185 yds,
8.0; Kaepernick 1129, 8.6; Lippincott 1028, 7.7)! On the fl ip side, BSU is #1 in the
WAC in scoring def (17.3 ppg), ttl D (302 ypg) and pass def (187 ypg). The Broncos
are also #9 in the NCAA in ttl off (449 ypg) and lead the WAC in scoring off (44.4
ppg) led by the NCAA’s most eff passer QB Moore who is avg 253 ypg (66%) with a
33-3 ratio. He’s thrown at least 3 TD passes in 6 of his L/7 and will look to exploit UN’s
#119 NCAA rated pass D (286 ypg) with WR’s Pettis (62 rec, 13.7) and Young (60 rec,
13.5). This is UN’s season fi nale and the Pack is playing its 3rd AG in 4 wks while this
is the Broncos’ fi nal “true” hurdle in keeping its BCS hopes alive with NMSt on deck.

Virginia Tech 23 VIRGINIA 13 - Groh is 14-11 SU (0-3 TY) and 16-7
ATS (1-2 TY) as a home dog. VT is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the series but the HT is
5-2 ATS. Last year VT allowed only 249 yds but needed an int in the EZ with 2:15 left
to secure the win. VA had the dazzling debut of CB Vic Hall at QB. Hall ran for 109
yards and 2 long TD’s as a surprise starter. VT has won in their last two trips here
(both as AF) by an avg of 42-17. UVA is ranked #118 in the NCAA in total off and are
being outscored 25-16 vs ACC foes and now face our #12 defense. QB Sewell is avg
173 ypg pass (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. VT is 9-2 as an ACC AF. QB Taylor is avg 174
ypg pass (56%) with a 13-3 ratio and has rushed for 310 yds (3.3). RB Williams is #1
in the ACC with 1,355 rush yds (5.6). With a win here and in their bowl game, VT will
have its 6th straight 10-win season while UVA HC Groh could be coaching in his last
game as the Cavs will likely fi nish the season 3-9.

CONNECTICUT 34 Syracuse 17 - The HT is 4-1 SU/ATS and the fav is 5-0 ATS.
Edsall played and coached at Syr from ‘76-‘90. UC won on the road LY 39-14 with a
329-147 yd edge. UC has won their two HG’s by an avg of 28-7 in the series. Marrone
is off his 1st BE win, a 31-13 upset of Rutgers. QB’s Nassib and Paulus combined 17-
22 for 211 yds as Syr rolled up 424 yds offense. LB Hogue (LY RB) tallied a school rec
7 tfl as the D held RU to 130 yds and totaled 9 sks. RB Carter was inj late (CS). Conn
is off a thrilling 33-30 2OT upset over Notre Dame. Dixon and Todman again rushed
for over 100 yds (3rd time) and Todman had a KR TD. Conn had opportunities to put it
away before the end of reg but settled for fi eld position with :42 and 2 TO, and missed
a 37 yd FG. Afterward Edsall dedicated the game to the late Jasper Howard and his
family. UC has the off edge (#47-94) and likes to grind it out behind their big physical
OL (174 rush ypg, 4.3) and now faces Syr #47 def all’g 92 ypg (2.8) rush. With little to
no depth it is unknown how Syr will respond with a hangover after their big win. Conn
(8-1-1 ATS TY) is in perfect position to gain bowl eligibility here at home.

DUKE 27 Wake Forest 23 - In their last visit here, WF led by 25 but Duke rallied back
and WF barely pulled out the 41-36 win. LY in a hard fought ACC battle that went back
and forth the entire gm, WF needed a 28 yd FG in OT to pull out the 33-30 win (Duke
miss 42 yd FG on fi nal pl reg). WF is 9-0 SU (but only 3-6 ATS) in this series and has
scored 41+ in all 4 wins in Durham. WF is off a bye while Duke is playing a 6th str wk.
WF is 0-5 as a conf AF L/3Y. WF is being outgained 395-318 ypg on the road TY. QB
Skinner is 3-0 vs Duke. On the yr, he avg 254 ypg (65%) with a 21-12 ratio. WF has the
edge on both sides of the ball (O#58-81, D#56-75). QB Lewis, who is a fi nalist for the
Unitas Awd, avg 268 ypg (61%) with a 17-7 ratio. While WF is coming off a bye they
have lost 5 str and are 4-7 on the yr and for the 1st time in 4 yrs they will not be going to
a bowl. This will be Duke’s home fi nale for 9 Sr incl QB Lewis who needs just 172 yds
to pass FSU’s Weinke for #2 all-time in ACC history and 322 to reach 10,000 yds. The
Blue Devils do have a shot at their 1st .500 season in 15 yrs with a win here.

SOUTH CAROLINA 21 Clemson 20 - In LY’s meeting, RB James Davis ran for 3
TD’s and CU defeated SC 31-14 giving the Tigers’ their 6th win in the L/7 vs its state
rival and Swinney was named the HC 2 days later. Clemson is 6-2 ATS and 10-2 SU
vs SC. LY SC QB Smelley went the whole gm and hit 22-47 for 212 but threw 4 int
which led to 3 TD’s for Clemson. SC has won just once (‘01) hosting Clemson S/‘89.
SC is 6-5 and bowl elig but have lost 4 of their L/5 SU. QB Garcia is avg 237 ypg pass
(57%) with a 14-8 ratio. SC rush offense has struggled TY and they are #97 in the
NCAA. Both tms have top 20 D’s (C #9-17) but CU has the offensive edge (#28-59)
and huge ST edge (#12-100). QB Parker is avg 189 ypg pass (56%) with an 18-9
ratio. Heisman candidate RB Spiller is avg 188 all-purp ypg (#3 NCAA). SC is coming
off a bye with nothing on deck and looking to move up in the bowl pecking order so
they don’t get stuck in the Indep Bowl while CU clinched the Atlantic Division Title
and has the ACC Champ game vs GT on deck.

NC STATE 24 N Carolina 23 - The underdog is 9-2 ATS with EIGHT OUTRIGHT
upsets in the series. These two are just 26 miles apart and the visitor is 6-3 ATS.
Wolfpack are 9-4 SU in home fi nales. NC has now lost B2B games in the series including
LY as #25 NC (7-4) was beaten soundly, committing 6 TO’s as NCSt defeated
the Tar Heels 41-10 with a 263 yd edge. QB Wilson is considering pursuing a pro
baseball career, which would likely make this his last game. On the season, he is avg
252 ypg pass (58%) with a 27-11 ratio. NCSt does have the offensive edge (#36-88),
but now faces our #8 D which has forced 10 TO’s and scored 4 TD’s the L/2. LW NC
D’s forced 6 TO which led to 24 Tar Heel pts. QB Yate is avg 152 ypg (60%) with a 10-
13 ratio. A 9-win ssn would be NC’s most S/’97 when the tm went 11-1 under Mack
Brown. NC is looking to move up for the league’s upper-tier bowls while NCSt would
love to spoil their rivals season on what could be Wilson’s fi nal game.

Tennessee 24 KENTUCKY 20 - Tenn has won 24 in a row in the nation’s longest series
win streak and UT has won 26 straight regular season fi nales (on 6-2 ATS run). LY
UT had a 311-193 yd edge including a 210-96 yd rush edge and won 28-10 in Fulmer’s
fi nal game and a 4 Top Weekly Late Phone Winner for us. The last time in Lexington
(‘07), UK lost 52-50 in 4 OT’s despite outgaining the Vols 564-520 with a 37-24 FD
edge. UK is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their fi nal home gm. UK is off a 31-24 upset of GA
in Athens. UK was outgained 487-260 but had a 4-0 TO advantage which led to 2 TD’s
in the 2H on 14 and 8 yd TD drives. Tenn clinched a bowl LW with their 31-16 win over
Vandy with the Vols holding a 422-297 yd edge, but UT DE Brown scored on an IR TD
with :03 left to make it a slightly misleading fi nal. UT RB Hardesty had 171 rush LW with
1,127 (5.0) on the ssn. QB Crompton is avg 241 ypg (62%) with a 16-3 ratio the L/6. UT
has edges on off (#27-50) and def (#23-46), but the Vols D has been banged up with
walk-ons forced to play 2nd string at several positions. Despite UK’s recent resurgence,
we will go with the Vols to get the win and improve their bowl standing.

Mississippi 31 MISS ST 17 - The home tm has won 5 in a row SU in the Egg Bowl,
and LY Ole Miss dominated as their D allowed the fewest yds in a 1A gm in ‘08 with a
461-24 yd edge (yes, 24 yds). UM is 7-2-1 ATS in the series and set a school record
with 11 sks LY holding MSU to -64 yds rush in LY’s 45-0 shutout (-18) and MSU
HC Croom resigned after the gm. Nutt is 10-1 SU vs Miss St with his only loss by
1 pt in ‘98. UM RB/WR McCluster has 903 rush yds (6.9) with 739 rush yds (7.9) in
the L/4 SEC gms. LW he threw a 27 yd TD pass out of the Wild Rebel pkg and had
148 rush yds in UM’s nail-biting 25-23 win over LSU. UM outgained LSU 426-290
holding LSU to 40 rush yds (1.5) but was lucky to escape with a win due to LSU
mismanaging the clock. MSU was eliminated from bowl contention in their 42-21
loss to Ark LW. MSU RB Dixon (1258, 5.5) rushed for 176 yds and 2 TD but lost a
rare fmbl at midfi eld in the 4Q which Ark turned into the gm sealing TD. UM’s D has
30 sks TY which puts pressure on MSU’s inconsistent QB Lee (127 ypg, 60%, with
a 4-13 ratio). MSU’s D has only 17 sks on the yr which means UM QB Snead (199
ypg, 54%, 17-14 ratio) should have time to throw and a solid win vs their rival should
secure a trip to the Capital One Bowl.

TCU 58 New Mexico 3 - The home team is 6-3-1 ATS. In the L/2Y vs TCU, QB
Porterie has been KO’d and TCU has won by a 63-3 margin with an avg yd edge of
356-152. In 4 MWC meetings, TCU has dominated winning by an avg of 35-13. After
opening last ssn vs NM (earliest conf opener ever), TCU and NM signed a contract
to play each other in season fi nales. The Frogs were slow out of the gate vs WY
LW. They all’d the Pokes to hang around until the 2Q before scoring 35 unanswered
points in a 45-10 win. TCU fi nished with a 523-178 yd edge but did have 4 TO’s. RB
Turner (688 yds, 5.3) was banged up early and Tucker (605, 6.5) fi nished with a career
high 134 on the ground. NM comes in fl ying high off their 1st win of the season.
After knocking 2 FG’s and a PAT off the upright 2W ago, Aho nailed 2 4Q FG’s incl the
game-winning 27 yd’r with :12 left. NM almost tripled their rush avg putting up 270
(7.7) incl 130 in the 4Q and fi nished with a 467-370 ttl yd edge. TCU is 18-6 as a HF
(1 ATS loss to IAA) and has won their L/4 home fi nales by an avg of 45-15. The Frogs
are playing for the outright MWC Title and a BCS berth and while NM has fi nally
found its confi dence, they will be quickly struck down by the high fl ying Frogs.

E CAROLINA 28 Southern Miss 27 - The winner will represent the East in the
CUSA Title game. SM is 11-2 SU and has won 7 in a row SU here in Greenville. In
LY’s 21-3 loss, EC was held to a season low 255 yds and their 3 pts were the fewest
scored under Holtz and fewest since ‘97. SMiss QB Davis and WR Brown hooked up
for a school-record 97 yd TD pass. The Eagles have won 4 of 5 SU (4-1 ATS) after
LW’s 44-34 win over Tulsa in their FHG. They have, however, won just once on the
road TY, although it did come 2 wks ago at Marshall. QB Young has played well in
place of inj’d starter Davis and is avg 219 ypg (62.3%) with a 12-1 ratio in his 6 sts.
The Eagles D has played better the L/2 weeks after allowing a season-high 750 yds
(559 pass) a few wks ago at Houston. EC has also won 4 of 5 SU (4-0-1 ATS), with
the only loss to VT. EC beat UAB 37-21 LW despite being outgained 520-325 as they
won the TO battle 2-0. The Pirates’ offense has really come on and is avg 42 ppg and
450 ypg their L/4 in conf play. The fav is 13-3 ATS when SMiss is on the road in CUSA
play. We think the teams are pretty even, but we give the Pirates the edge at home.

UAB 24 Ucf 23 - UCF is 5-1 all-time vs the Blazers and 3-1 in CUSA play. LY UCF
was shutout for the 1st time ever in CUSA play and for the 1st time at Bright House
in a 15-0 loss to UAB. It was UAB’s 1st shutout in CUSA play (10 ssns). This is just
the 2nd time in 13 yrs that UAB closes their season at home (1st S/’98). The Blazers
need a win to become bowl eligible and clinch their 1st non-losing season since 2004.
QB Webb is quietly having an outstanding Sr campaign and is, arguably, the MVP in
CUSA. He is #8 in NCAA in total off (297 ypg), the #1 rushing QB in NCAA (117 ypg,
6.2) and after a slow start has climbed to #12 in pass eff (149.8). Webb will have to be
at his best against the best front 7 in CUSA. The Knights allowed just 50 total yards
in LW’s 49-0 win over Tulane and are T-#1 in CUSA with 34 sks. UCF is looking to
improve their bowl position by getting to 8 wins. The offense is much improved under
Sr signal-caller Hodges. The Knights are avg 39 ppg and 441 ypg in their L/4 conf gms
but UAB needs a 6th win to have a shot at their fi rst bowl since ‘04.

UTEP 28 Marshall 27 - UTEP is just 4-15-1 SU in Sun Bowl fi nales. The HT is 2-0
in this brief series winning by an avg of 40-12. Marshall is off a 34-31 win over SMU.
The Herd was without leading receiver TE Slate (OFY-knee) and leading rusher
Darius Marshall (#13 in NCAA, 117 ypg), who may return here (check status). MU’s
defense has been outstanding since allowing 52 pts to VTech in week 2. They are allowing
just 19 ppg since that game and have held the L/3 opponents to 89 ypg on the
ground. They have been solid on the road TY (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS), but have traditionally
struggled away from home, as they entered this season 3-21 SU (6-17-1 ATS) on
the road under HC Snyder. Prevailing sentiment has Snyder out as coach, even if
the Herd goes bowling. LW, UTEP announced that HC Price would return for 2010,
despite 4 straight losing seasons. The Miners main objective to fi nish the season is
to get RB Buckram the NCAA rushing title. He is currently #2 avg 142 ypg (6.3) after
rushing for 147 yds (4.3) in LW’s 30-29 loss at Rice, in which the Miners had 6 TO’s
(5 fmbls). The Herd is 0-5 all-time in the state of Texas and now must make the long
trip to El Paso (over 1,600 miles), so we expect UTEP to come out ahead.

SMU 44 Tulane 20 - TU has won 7 of 8 vs the Mustangs and 5 straight in Dallas. LY
the Wave led 31-7 at HT, but SMU got within a score with 2:03 left, but they kicked deep
and TU was able to run out the clock 34-27 (-18’). Tulane has outgained SMU by 111
ypg in the L/7. Tulane is headed to their 3rd straight losing season under HC Toledo and
7th straight overall. This is the 3rd straight road game for the Wave and they are just
1-5 SU/ATS on the road. They were held to just 50 total yds LW in a 49-0 loss at UCF.
Although Tulane has struggled, you can’t overlook the season that WR Jeremy Williams
has put together. Williams leads TU with 79 rec (13.2) (#11 in NCAA) and is also the #2
rusher (160, 4.3) behind Sr Andre Anderson (911, 4.3). TU may have found its QB of
the future in Ryan Griffi n (PS#45). The rFr is avg 185 ypg (64%) with a 6-5 ratio in his 5
starts. The D has again been ravaged by inj’s and is all’g 41 ppg the L/6. SMU appears
headed to their 1st bowl since 1984, although they fell out of the CUSA West lead with
a 34-31 loss at Marshall LW as they were outgained 475-331. The Mustangs are 4-1 at
home TY, but just 2-2 ATS and have failed to cover in the L/2 at home. Tulane looked like
a team that may have packed it in LW, and even though SMU failed to cover as a DD
home fav 3 wks ago vs Rice (won 31-28, -17’), the Mustangs roll into the postseason.

OKLAHOMA 31 Oklahoma St 17 - Bedlam. Gundy was 0-4 vs OU as OSU’s starting
QB from 1986-‘89 (0-8 SU combined as QB/HC, 0-3-1 ATS as HC). LY OU was -7’ on the
road and needed an impressive win to get votes and into the B12 Title gm. Behind #3 QB
Weeden OSU came back from 11 pts down (2H) vs CU keeping a BCS bowl shot alive. QB
Robinson (192 ypg, 64%, 15-7 ratio and 302 rush yds 3.2) was held out (concussion) LW
but was dressed and most likely will play here. OU was embarrassed LW vs TT (outgained
549-310) playing its worst gm of the ssn. OU’s 5 losses are the most since Stoops’ 1st
ssn in ‘99 and he is 14-7 ATS after a SU loss. QB Jones is avg 232 ypg (58%) with a
23-13 ratio. OU is ranked #5 in our pass eff def allowing 198 ypg (55%) with an 11-15
ratio while OSU comes in #13 (244 ypg, 57%, 16-14). OU has won 29 straight (19-9-1
ATS) HG’s, are outgaining foes on avg 555-234 with a avg score 55-9 in Norman TY and
Stoops will have his squad focused vs its rival after LW’s wakeup call.

4* MINNESOTA over Chicago - Favre hasn’t faced the Bears since 2007 & is only 2-6 SU & 2-5-1
ATS vs them since Lovie Smith took over. MIN has a huge situational edge as they are in their 3rd
straight HG since coming off the bye while the Bears are on a very short turnaround after LW’s SNF
vs PHI combined with the holiday. CHI is 1-4 SU & ATS since the bye with the only win vs CLE as
while Cutler has avg’d 290 ypg (61%) he has a 6-12 ratio. While the Bears do have a franchise QB
in Cutler they don’t have the OL (18 sacks allowed 3.8 ypc) or WR’s to support him with. The Bears
#8 pass defense is misleading as teams have been able to run at will in their L4 games (156 ypg
4.7) while giving up a 10-4 ratio as well. MIN throttled SEA LW & had 27-4 FD & 388-111 yd edges
before losing interest after going up 35-3 holding them to just 4 yds rushing (0.3) overall. Favre is
fully comfortable in this offense now (248 ypg 70% 21-3) & MIN has outgained foes 416-280 the
L4W. Six of MIN’s 7 ATS wins have been by 12 or more points & look for them to hang another big
win as they continue to push NO for the #1 seed. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 31 Chicago 13

3* Carolina over NY JETS - CAR is in a good situation off 2 home games & travelling with 3 days
extra rest. The Jets come in off a tough loss to JAX & their rematch vs NE with a road game at BUF
on deck. LW CAR put the game in Delhomme’s hands (42 att’s) instead of letting the ground game
which had tallied 184 ypg (5.0) with an avg of 37 rush att’s pound it out vs a MIA def allowing 127
ypg (4.2). CAR has only won & covered 1 game TY where Delhomme has had 20 or more pass
att’s (2nd ATL). While the Jets have outgained foes 319-266 at home TY they are 1-4 SU & ATS vs
top 10 rushing teams with the only win being vs TEN when they were still searching for an offensive
identity in Wk 3. Sanchez has played 2 games vs a top 10 defense both being vs NE which helped
the coaching staff devise a gameplan in the 1st meeting (163 yds (64%, with 1 TD) to keep him out
of trouble. LW he had 136 yds (38%) with a 1-4 ratio & while CAR only has 1 sack in the L3W as
Peppers has been slowed by a broken hand there is enough gametape on Sanchez for Fox to work
with. The NFL has caught up to the Jets who are 1-6 ATS & dealing with injuries. We’ll side with CAR
getting points as the dog has covered 5 straight in their games & the Jets are 1-6 ATS as a home
favorite and the cold could affect Sanchez. FORECAST: Carolina 27 NY JETS 14

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* ST LOUIS over Seattle - SEA was able to mask some attrition to their OL & secondary in a come
from behind 32-20 win vs DET but since then has lost B2B road games & is now in its 3rd straight away.
LW at the half the Seahawks were outFD 15-2, outgained 202-61 yds & had -6 yds rushing as they
were w/out RB Jones (bruised lung). SEA is now 0-5 SU & ATS away & is an AF for the 1st time TY.
While STL only has 1 win this year they continue to play hard & the enthusiasm RB Jackson (133 ypg
5.6 L4W) has is becoming contagious. The Rams not only got their fi rst win vs DET but then covered
& OUTGAINED the Saints before getting the backdoor cover vs ARZ. STL should fi nd some running
room vs a Seahawks defense that is allowing 146 ypg (5.0 ypc) rushing on the road. The Seahawks
are also allowing 267 ypg (73%) with a 12-1 Ratio on the road TY. STL is a dangerous team here as
they are sick of losing & starting to show improvement in Spagnuolo’s system on both sides of the
ball making them worth a look with the points here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 26 Seattle 20

2* SAN DIEGO over Kansas City - The Chiefs come in having won 2 games in a row for the 1st
time since Sept 2007 after upsetting PIT at home LW. Despite being outgained 515-282, KC was
able to capitalize on PIT’s mistakes as they had a 97 yd KR for a TD & int’d Roethlisberger 2 times to
set up 10 pts. The Chiefs are proving to be a very scrappy team as while they have been outgained
397-279 over the L6 games they have covered 5 of them. The secret has been KC’s ball security &
they have just 6 giveaways (3 vs SD for 37-7 loss) with 11 takeaways in the span. SD handled the
Broncos LW 32-3 LW with a 348-271 yd edge, scoring on 7 of 10 drives to retake the AFC West but
it was costly. The lost DE Castillo (calf) & RT Clary (leg) & their status is unknown here. While SD
had 203 (4.7) yds rushing it was by 4 different backs. SD has outgained its div foes 345-270 TY &
is fi nally playing like the team they were projected to be early in the season. KC’s win ranks as one
of the biggest upsets of the season but they have still given up 400+ yds offense in 7 games TY
(456 ypg in those) & 2 of their best games were vs OAK with Russell. While SD has only beaten 2
teams TY by 2 TD’s (KC & DEN) they are starting to round into form as the playoff team everyone
envisioned. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 38 Kansas City 21

OTHER GAMES

Green Bay at DETROIT - Thursday - The Packers shutout the Lions 26-0 as a 14 pt HF in the previous
meeting moving to 6-0-1 ATS in the series. GB had a 435-149 yd edge as DET was very beat up playing
without Stafford, Calvin Johnson & 3 defensive starters. GB is only 2-6 ATS on Thursdays & 1-3 ATS vs
DET with a 26-25 avg score on Thanksgiving. GB is 2-1 ATS on the road vs losing teams TY (STL/CLE/
TB) with a 422-251 yd edge with the loss to TB due to a hangover after the MIN loss. DET has brought in
8 DB’s since the season opener for the #32 pass defense that’s worse than LY’s allowing 275 ypg (70%)
24-6 vs 232 ypg (68%) with a 25-4 ratio. DET is 1-6 ATS TY as a DD dog & GB’s travel issues aren’t that
bad as they’ve been at home the L2W. GB however will be without DE/OLB Kampman & CB Harris to
serious knee injuries here. Schwartz helped the Titans wreck the Lions LY on Thanksgiving 47-10 as an
11 pt AF as their DC & know has to motivate TY’s unit that gave up 37 pts to CLE LW. There is no line
here as Stafford injured his non-throwing shoulder LW but he took another step towards winning over
the team for 2010 as he threw the game winning TD. Turkey Day Play: OVER

Oakland at DALLAS - Thursday - This is only the 3rd time OAK has been in a mid-season Thursday
game (0-2 SU & ATS) but they did play SD in one LY so they have an idea of the practice & travel
schedule. DAL has won & covered 4 straight Thursdays by a 36-12 avg score. DAL has big stat
edges with the #5 & #16 units (-4 TO’s) vs OAK’s #32 & #24 units (-7 TO’s). Romo suffered a knee
bruise LW vs WAS & he only passed for 158 yds (56%) with a 1-1 ratio vs a WAS defense without DT
Haynesworth. While it wasn’t pretty he did lead the team to a win when it counted most with a 60/9pl
drive. OAK decided to see if it was the talent surrounding the QB or the QB LW as they benched
Russell & went with Gradkowski vs CIN. Gradkowski (183 yds 50% 2-1) gave the team enough spark
& athleticism to steal a win from CIN who fumbled a KR in the fi nal :30 to set up OAK’s game winning
FG. OAK has been outgained 392-159 TY on the road. Jones will make this game a priority after
the L2 offensive stinkers esp since this will be the only football game TV on in the nation & he has a
shiny new stadium to show off. Turkey Day Play: Dallas

NY Giants at DENVER - Thursday - This is the fi rst mid-season Thursday game for the Giants since
1995. This is the 5th straight year DEN has played a mid-season Thursday game but their 1st home
game. The Giants defense disappointed again LW as they allowed ATL to score in ALL four 2H possessions
with drives of 63/8pl, 51/18pl, 65/12pl & 76/12. This was one week after allowing SD an 80/8pl
fi nal drive for the GW TD. MLB Pierce is now out indefi nitely & is a major loss as not only the leading
tackler but the play caller. Denver’s Cinderella start gave many false hope but the Broncos have now
dropped 4 straight SU & ATS being outscored by 20 ppg. While it is not a “must win” for either team a
Thanksgiving Night loss will be tough as DEN has B2B road games on deck & the NYG have 3 straight
division battles up next. Get this play on the Northcoast Debit Card System for only $9 after 11:00
am on Thursday. Midweek Marquee Plays are on a 14-5-1 run (if you are a Thanksgiving Exec
member - no need to call, this play will be INCLUDED with your Executive Club Service!!!
ATLANTA 37 Tampa Bay 20 - TB is 9-4-1 ATS vs ATL. ATL has been worn down after 4 road games
in 5 Wks & it’s unknown if they’ll get either of their top 2 RB’s here. ATL has gone 5-1 SU & ATS vs
teams .500 or lower TY. While they have only outgained them by 7 ypg on avg they have posted a
27-16 avg win. While Ryan has led ATL to 216 ypg passing (64%) with an 11-7 ratio in those the run
game has carried the team with 132 ypg (4.3). The NFL caught up to Freeman LW as the Saints held
him to 126 yds (52%) with a 1-3 ratio. TB has been outgained in every game TY with a 354-297 avg
on the road while giving up 155 ypg (4.9) rushing. The Bucs are 2-5 ATS vs .500 or better teams TY
being outgained 392-268 & the Falcons now have 3 full games of tape to fi nd Freeman’s tendencies.
ATL was outgained 456-352 LW but converted 9 of 16 on 3rd Dns & had 4 drives of 63+ yds to send
the game to OT. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS after a SU loss & at 5-5 are in the middle of the pack for a
playoff spot in the NFC. Look for the Falcons to bounce back in a higher scoring game at home.

Miami 16 BUFFALO 10 - MIA throttled the Bills 38-10 in the 1st meeting as a 1 pt HF. They have won &
covered 3 straight in the series & 6 straight div games. MIA’s turnaround season LY was helped out by an
easy schedule & a remarkably healthy team that only had 3 players land on IR. TY however the injuries
are starting to pile up. While they beat CAR 24-17 thanks to an outstanding game by Ricky Williams (119
yds rushing 5.4) who had 3 TD’s they were down to just 5 OL & were playing their #3 C early in the 4Q.
It’s unknown if C Grove (ankle) will play but MIA may have lost NT Ferguson (knee) for the year & #2
NT Soliai (ankle) status is unknown. BUF switched to DC Perry Fewell as HC LW & he reinstalled Ryan
Fitzpatrick who had a decent game LW (297 yds 58% 1-2) vs JAX. The Bills did an admirable job in holding
Jones-Drew to 66 yds (2.6) rushing (133 5.6 L4W). The Bills have lost 3 straight at home after beating TB
in Wk 2 being outgained 337-245 by a 21-7 avg score. They are now 3-12 ATS vs 3-4 teams & are close
to the top with 12 players on IR adding RG Wood (broken leg) LW. This is a dangerous game to call with
a warm weather team coming to BUF late in the year & this is Henne’s fi rst start in a stadium notorious
for windy conditions. We’ll call for MIA by 6 for now & see what the weather will be here.

CINCINNATI 31 Cleveland 20 - Don’t “knee jerk” to CLE’s offensive explosion that totaled 290 yds in
the 1H LW which is more than their total in 7 games TY. They still have only outgained one opponent
this season & that was CIN in a 23-20 OT loss (+6.5). QB Quinn is making positive steps with an offense
that FINALLY stretched the fi eld with 9 completed passes of 12+ yds. Quinn also matured by going to 8
different receivers & going 10 of 19 on 3rd downs. CIN’s 3 game win streak came to an end LW as they
imploded LW at OAK. Despite a 348-275 yd edge CIN fumbled 3 times, were was hit for 8 penalties &
on 5 trips to OAK’s 20 came away with 2 TD, 1 FG, 1 missed FG & a fumble. CIN now returns home,
in 1st place in their division off a long road trip & is laying over 14 pts for the 1st time since 1990. They
haven’t grasped the favorite’s mentality going 1-6 as a HF & have beaten only 1 team by over 14 pts in
the L2Y. CLE may be in turmoil under HC Mangini & the defense had a good effort vs BAL & the offense
fi nally showed some life LW despite losing on games fi nal play in DET. CIN will want to win big & sweep
the AFC North at home to reward their fans but the dog is 9-0 ATS in Bengals games TY.

HOUSTON 28 Indianapolis 27 - Over the L2W IND has received an early Christmas present from
NE HC Belichick & escaped with a win after a bruising battle at BAL. The Colts have won 19 straight
& are used to playing with that target. While the Colts are on a B2B road trip that is negated by a HOU
squad having played TEN on Mon Night in what was surely an emotional home effort. This is a quick
turnaround as 3 weeks ago HOU covered & outgained IND but could not hold a 17-13 4Q lead & then
missed a game tying FG 42 yd FG on the fi nal play. IND is now 5-0 ATS on the road TY but the Texans
can match that with a 5-0 ATS record as a HD. Schaub (311 ypg, 71% L5W) gets a great matchup vs a
Colts pass defense that has allowed 307 ypg (70%) with a 4-4 ratio the L3W. HOU has also outgained
their L6 foes by an avg of 115 ypg & have the #6 defense the L4W prior to MNF allowing just 17 ppg in
that span. Teams are now 2-9 ATS the week after playing BAL as the Ravens physical defensive play
can carry over & expect HOU to snap a 5 game series losing streak here.

PHILADELPHIA 20 Washington 14 - The Eagles are off LW’s SNF game & it’s not known how their
injury depleted back 7 on defense held up. WAS is off a brutally tough loss as they controlled the fi rst 57
minutes of the game without DT Haynesworth (ankle) only to allow an injured Romo to drive 60/9pl for
the game winning TD. WAS had held Romo to just 98 yds (50%) with 1 int prior to the drive. Making things
worse for WAS is that they are likely to be without RB Betts (205, 3.9) & they lost RG Rinehart (ankle) as
well. Portis (60 ypg 4.2) was ruled out here by Zorn right after the DAL game. This is however an NFC East
matchup where the AD is now 16-6 ATS & WAS is also 6-1 ATS as a div AD inc LW’s cover as well as the
season opener in the Meadowlands. PHI was held to a season low 262 total yds in their fi rst matchup TY
on MNF & is was also the fi rst game that OC Sherm Lewis took over the play calling duties. The Redskins
D is performing at a high level as in the L7 games they have not allowed over 306 yds (275 ypg) & they’ve
had 21 sacks in that span. As long as QB Campbell (only 2 int’s in L3W) continues to not force passes
into coverage the Skins defense will keep them in the game with a chance to win.

TENNESSEE 24 Arizona 21 - This is a tough spot for ARZ who are in their 2nd straight road game &
have a big home game vs MIN on deck. TEN is a dangerous team here as they are 3-6 prior to MNF
(0-6 ATS afterwards) they have nothing to lose & their 3 wins have given them loads of confi dence.
ARZ had a 21-3 lead & 299 yds LW prior to Warner being taken out after a blow to the head & only
gained 128 yds afterwards. ARZ is now 4-1 ATS on the road TY & has outgained 379-316 & surprisingly
have outrushed foes 154 (4.5) to 102 (4.2) as well. ARZ has gained balance on offense thanks to an
improving run game (162 5.4) over the L3W. However they face a different challenge in TEN who since
their 59-0 blasting by NE now have a healthy & deep secondary that is allowing 190 ypg (58%) with
a 4-7 ratio. While Young isn’t putting up gaudy stats in his 3 starts (169 ypg 71% 2-1) he’s not putting
the team in a bad spot but he hasn’t been challenged to win in the air thanks to the run game. This is
a tough game to call without knowing if Warner will be available as the NFL has tougher concussion
rules or how TEN did vs a dedicated passing team LW & we’ll call for the Titans by 3 for now.

SAN FRANCISCO 17 Jacksonville 14 - This game has a pair of run oriented teams with disciplinarian
HC’s. Both teams were off misleading fi nals as SF trailed GB 23-3 at the half & was outgained 362-57.
JAX meanwhile was outgained 343-310 vs BUF but a 68/12pl drive led to the GW TD with under 1:00
left. JAX QB Garrard has struggled on the road (177 ypg 56% 1-2 ratio) compared to at home (24 ypg
65% 6-3 ratio). The SF defense will force him to beat them in the air as they are allowing just 3.5 ypc.
The Jaguars are just 4-12 ATS vs non-div foes & in their only other trip to the West Coast they were
mauled in Seattle 41-0. JAX has also struggled scoring avg under 20 ppg the L4W. Since Singletary’s
promotion the 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a SU loss. SF is also buying into the conservative mistake free
offense and are on a 12-4-2 ATS run. QB Smith has kept drives alive with his 65% completions
compared to the replaced QB Shaun Hill who was completing 56%. Both teams offset each other &
while JAX has a little stronger edge in the passing game they are very inconsistent. We’ll call for the
49ers by 3 for now & watch the line.

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE - Both teams enter this crucial game off tough losses. While PIT had a
515-282 yd edge in LW’s loss they set an NFL record by allowing a special teams/defensive return for
a TD for the 8th straight game. BAL played tough with IND LW & int’d Manning twice but they couldn’t
get the run game on track (98 yds 3.2) to open up the passing game. BAL will be without OLB Suggs
again while Roethlisberger may have sustained a concussion late vs KC. This game will have a playoff
implications as barring a CIN collapse they are fi ghting for 1 of the 2 Wildcard spots. Get this play on
the Northcoast Debit Card System for only $9 after 11:00 am on Sunday. Sunday Night Private
Play Hotline Marquee Plays are currently 8-2 this year!!!

New England at NEW ORLEANS - The Saints did what was needed in a workmanlike 38-7 win LW
at TB to stay undefeated. NE meanwhile not only revenged an earlier loss to the NYJ but also took out
frustrations off their loss at Indy. The Saints are now 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a HF & the 2 games they did
not cover were 8 & 10 point wins. On the fl ip side NE has been an underdog only ONCE in 2 seasons &
that was the Indy game just 2 weeks ago while going 6-1 ATS as a dog the L4 seasons. Don’t miss out
on Monday Night Magic! We are now offering a MONEY BACK PLUS Guarantee on MNM through
the Northcoast Debit Card System - take advantage on Monday night after 3:00 pm EST!

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

TEXAS at TEXAS A&M (Thursday, November 26)...Ags had
covered 3 straight in series prior to LY. Ags 4-1-1 vs. line at home
TY but Mike Sherman 3-8-1 as dog since LY. Mack has covered last
3 as visitor TY and is 8-2 as visitor since LY. Tech edge-slight
to Texas, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at WEST VIRGINIA (Friday, November
27)...Wannstedt has won and covered last 2 years as a dog vs.
WVU. Bill Stewart continues to hit .333 vs. number (4-8 LY, 3-6 TY...7-
14 overall since ‘08). Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE (Friday, November 27)...Gers 7-1
vs. line as visitor since early ’08. In the last half of regular season
the past 2 years, Schiano 9-1 vs. line. Tech edge-Gers, based
on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON (Friday, November 27)...EMU 3-
8 vs. line TY, 11-23 last 34 on board. Eagles no covers 3 on MAC road
TY. Tech edge-slight to Akron, based on EMU negatives.

BUFFALO at KENT STATE (Friday, November 27)...Bulls have
covered 3 of last 4 and 4 of last 6 meetings including last 3 at Dix
Stadium. Turner Gill 12-3 vs. number last 15 on road (3-2 TY).
Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team and series trends.

WYOMING at COLORADO STATE (Friday, November
27)...Bronze Boot! CSU no covers last 4 or 6 of last 7 TY, while
Cowboys 6-1 vs. line last 7 in ‘09. Tech edge-Wyo, based on
current trends.

TEMPLE at OHIO (Friday, November 27)...Owls have covered
last 6 on road (5-0 TY) for Al “Touch of” Golden. Al “Touch of” Golden
also 16-6 vs. line overall since LY. Solich only 2-4-1 vs. line at home
since LY. Tech edge-Temple, based on Al “Touch of” Golden.

ALABAMA at AUBURN (Friday, November 27)...Iron Bowl! .
Home team has covered 4 of last 5 meetings, Auburn winning and
covering last 2 at Jordan-Hare. Tigers 4-2 vs. line at home TY but just
1-2 overall as dog. Little Nicky, however, 7-0 vs. number as visitor
since LY. Tech edge-slight to Bama, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at TULSA (Friday, November 27)...Tommy West
swansong. Tommy 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board (1-9 TY), Tulsa 7-
2 vs. number as host since LY. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on
team trends. So long, Tommy.

ILLINOIS at CINCINNATI (Friday, November 27)...Illini have
failed to cover last game of the season the past four years for Zook.
Zook 3-9 vs. line last 12 on board. Bearcats 5-1 vs. line last 6 hosting
non-Big East. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at COLORADO (Friday, November 27)...Huskers
6-2 vs. line on road for Bo Pelini. Hawkins 4-2 vs. line last 6 as home
dog (also 4-2 vs. line last 6 at Boulder). Tech edge-slight to
Nebraska, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at BOWLING GREEN (Friday, November 27)...BGSU
has won and covered last 2 meetings and Falcs can almost
guarantee themselves an unlikely bowl bid with another win. BGSU
has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY. Tech edge-
Toledo, based on team trends.

NO. ILLINOIS at CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Friday, November 27)...
CMU has won and covered last 2 meetings. CMU an emphatic 3-0 SU
and vs. line TY as host. Huskies 8-2 vs. line last 10 as dog, however.
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.

NEVADA at BOISE STATE (Friday, November 27)...Wolf Pack
a classic bully with 6-12 dog mark since ‘04. Broncos 4-0 vs. line on
blue carpet TY, 33-14 last 47 at home. Tech edge-Boise, based
on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Beamer has won last 5 meetings
and covered 4 of those until LY’s close call. Beamer has won and
covered handily his last 2 at Charlottesville. Beamer 26-11 vs. line
on road since ‘04. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at UCONN...UConn has won and covered last two in
series by big margins. Huskies 8-1 vs. line TY and 9-1 last 10 on board
since late LY. Tech edge-UConn, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE...Duke tough, covering last 3 meetings,
though Devils haven’t won in series since ‘99. Wake 1-6 vs. line last 7
as visitor. Tech edge-Vandy, based on series and team trends.

CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA...Ugh! Palmetto State
showdown. Tigers have covered 6 of last 8 meetings (although
Spurrier 2-1 last 3). Dabo 10-2 vs. Line last 12 reg.-season games.
Dabo also 4-1 vs. line last 5 as visitor. Spurrier 2-0 as home dog TY.
Tech edge-slight to Dabo, based on team and series trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...Revenge for Butch after
getting whipped 41-10 at home LY. Wolfpack only 2-3 vs. line as
host TY and just 3-6 vs. number overall. UNC has covered last 4
TY. Tech edge-UNC, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. KANSAS (at Kansas City)...Dog team has
covered 5 of last 6 in this border series. But KU hitting skids with 8
straight losses vs. number TY. Tigers 4-1 vs. line away from home
TY. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on KU negatives.

TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY...Barrel! Cats haven’t won it since
1984! Vols have covered last 3 at Lexington as well. UK just 1-4
vs. line at home TY, 3-11 vs. line last1 4 at home. Tech edgeslight
to UT, based on team and series trends.

OLE MISS at MISSISIPPI STATE...Egg Bowl! Last three and five
of last six “under” in series. Houston Nutt 10-3 last 13 on board (5-
3 TY). Rebs 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 Egg Bowls. Tech edge-slight to
Ole Miss, based on series trends.

NEW MEXICO at TCU...Frogs have covered last 5 at home and
destroyed Rocky Long’s Lobos, winning and covering last 4 years.
TCU 10-1 vs. line last 11 as host, and has covered last 9 vs. MWC
at Fort Worth. Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at EAST CAROLINA...USM has won and
covered last 2 and 7 of last 8 in series. Skip only 7-14 vs. line last
21 on board. Eagles 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 at Greenville,
where they haven’t lost since ‘94! Tech edge-USM, based on
series trends.

UCF at UAB...UAB has covered the last 2 years in series.
Blazers also 6-2 vs. line last 8 at Legion Field. O’Leary 12-5 vs. line last
17 on board. Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on series trends.

MARSHALL at UTEP...If UTEP favored note that 3-21 spread
mark last 24 as chalk! Tech edge-Marshall, especially if dog,
based on team trends.

TULANE at SMU...ote that road team has covered the last four
meetings. Bob Toledo 2-11 vs. line last 13 on board, however. June
Jones 0-3 as chalk TY as underdog team is 9-1 in Mustang games!
Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on Tulane negatives.

BAYLOR vs. TEXAS TECH (at Jerry Jones Cowboys
Stadium, Arlington, Tx)...Tech has mostly dominated the last
decade, winning last 10 and covering 8 of those, although Baylor did
cover in ‘08. Tech edge-slight to TT, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bedlam! Big revenge for
OSU after getting clocked 61-41 LY. But Sooners have been
clocking OSU regularly the past few years, winning last 6, covering
last 4 and 5 of those 6. Stoops 17-7 last 24 as host. Gundy 2-0-1
vs. line away from home TY but 0-1 as dog and just 8-10 as dog
since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA...Gators have covered last 2 and
3 of last 4 as host in series, having won last 5 in a row SU. Bowden
3-1 as dog TY and 14-7 last 21 in role, also 7-4-1 vs. line last 12
away. Tech edge-slight to UF, based on series trends.

GEORGIA at GEORGIA TECH...Road team 5-0-1 last 6, 9-1-1 vs.
line last 11 in series! But Paul Johnson 15-6 vs. line at GT, 6-3 as
home chalk. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU...Beehive Boot! Underdog team has covered 9 of
last 12 meetings, but chalk has covered last 2. Tech edge-slight
to Utah, based on extended series trends.

RICE at HOUSTON...Bayou Bucket! Owls have won last 3
meetings, all as dog, and have covered 4 of last 5 in series. Rice
has covered last 3 outings TY after slow start. Cougs have
covered first 4 on board as host TY as well as 6 of last 7 on board
at home. Tech edge-slight to Rice, based on series trends.

UTAH STATE at IDAHO...Vandals no covers last 4 TY after
opening with 7 covers. Utags have won and covered last 2 years
vs.. Akey and are 3-0 as road dog TY and 11-3-1 last 15 on board
since mid '08. Tech edge-slight to USU, absed on team and
recent series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at WASHINGTON...Dog team has
covered last 8 Apple Cups! Huskies 0-1 as chalk TY, no covers last
8 in role at Husky Stadium! Tech edge-slight to WSU, based on
series and team trends.

ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE...Territorial Cup! Road team 13-
4 vs. line last 17 in series. Cats have covered last 2 at Tempe.
Tech edge-UA, based on extended series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MARYLAND...BC 1-3 vs. line away TY
(0-1 as road chalk) and 1-5 last 6 away from home. Eagles 2-11
as road chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to UM, based on
team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at SOUTH FLORIDA...Canes only 2-3 vs. line
away TY and just 1-3 as road chalk. Miami 3-5 as chalk overall TY,
now 10-21 in role since ‘06 (8-16 now for Shannon in role). Bulls
11-6 vs. line as host since ‘06 and 4-1 as home dog that span. Tech
edge-USF, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at LSU...Tigers have failed to cover last 2 at home
vs. Hogs and are 1-3 vs. line last 4 meetings. Tigers 1-12 vs.
number last 13 as SEC host. Hogs 6-2 vs. line last 8 TY. Tech
edge-Arkansas, based on recent series and team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...Tomey swansong.
SJSU has dominated lately, winning and covering last 4 meetings.
Tomey still 13-7-1 vs. line last 21 as host despite miserable ‘09.
Tech edge-SJSU, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME at STANFORD...Tree has covered 11 of last 12 on
Farm for Harbaugh! Dog team, however, has covered in nine
straight ND games this season (Irish 2-0 as dog, but 2-8 last 10 on
board, too!). Tech edge-Stanford, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV...Sanford swansong. UNLV 2-10
as chalk since ‘05. Aztecs have also covered 6 of last 7 meetings.
Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team and series trends.

UCLA at SOUTHERN CAL...Bruins have covered last 3 and 4 of
last 5, all as substantial dog, in fight for Victory Bell. SC 1-8 vs. line
last 9 TY (all as chalk), no covers last 3 at home. Tech edge-
UCLA, based on team and recent series trends.

NAVY at HAWAII...Navy 27-15 vs. line away since ‘04, 12-5 as
road chalk that span. Leahey just 1-3 at home TY. Tech edge-
Navy, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Elson
swansong. FAU only 1-3 vs. line as host TY and 0-3 as chalk. Tops
have covered last 2 TY. Tech edge-slight to WKU, based on
recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at UL-MONROE...Road team 3-0-1 vs. line
last 4 meetings. MTSU 6-0 as chalk TY. Tech edge-slight to
MTSU, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU 2-7 vs. line TY and
now 5-16 last 21 on board. UNT has covered last 2 meetings. Tech
edge-slight to UNT, based on recent trends.

TROY at UL-LAFAYETTE...Troy has won last 5 and covered last
4 meetings. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT (Thursday, November 26)...Pack has
won last 8 meetings, covering 6 of last 7. Pack also won and
covered last 3 at Ford Field. Lions 0-4-1 vs. line last 5 TY, 3-11 last
14 as host. Lions also no covers last 5 on Thanksgiving. Tech
edge-Packers, based on series and team trends.

OAKLAND at DALLAS (Thursday, November 26)...Cowboys
have won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 on Thanksgiving.
Oakland not helpless on road, 2-2 vs. line TY and 7-5 since LY away.
Tech edge-slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at DENVER (Thursday, November 26)...Broncos
"under” 8-2 TY and 16-6 last 22. Giants extended road marks are
good (17-4 last 21) but no covers last 5 overall TY. Tech edge-
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON...Eight of last nine “over” in series
although earlier Nov. 8 meeting “under” at Lucas Oil. Kubiak 3-0-1
vs. line last 4 TY. T exans 2-0-1 vs. line last 3 as series host, Colts
5-0 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to Texans, based on
series trends.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI...Browns 4-10 vs. line last 14 on
board. Tech edge-Bengals, based on Browns woes.
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA...“Overs” 5-1-1 last 7 in series.
Bears 1-4 vs. line away TY, 1-6 last 7 on road. Vikes, however,
just 4-8-1 last 13 as home chalk (1-2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to
“over,” based on series “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA...Skins have won outright as
dog last two trips to Linc. But Birds “over” 4-1 at home TY. Andy
Reid 8-3 last 11 as home chalk. Tech edge-slight to Eagles and
“over,” based on team and recent “totals” trends.

MIAMI at BUFFALO...Dolphins have failed to cover last 4 at
Orchard Park (last year’s game played at Toronto). Sparano 9-4 vs.
line away since LY. Bills 1-7 last 8 vs. number at Orchard Park.
Bills also “under” 5-1 last 6 at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Tech edge-
Dolphins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE...Cards 4-1 vs. line on road TY and
have now covered 6 of last 7 away from home. Tech edge-slight
to Cards, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS...Seahawks no covers last 6 on road (0-
5 TY). Although Seattle has owned Rams lately, winning last 9 SU
and covering last 5 of those. Rams have covered 4 of last 5 TY.
Last 4 in series at Dome “over” as well. Tech edge-“Over” and
slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and series trends.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA...Bucs have covered last 4 in series
but this is first meeting TY. Falcs, however, 4-0 vs. line as host TY.
Falcs “over” 8-3 last 11 since late LY. Tech edge-“Over’ and
Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at NY JETS...Jets sliding, 1-6 SU and vs. line last 7.
Jets 5-10 last 15 vs. line as host. Panthers “over” 11-5 last 16
away. Panthers 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Tech edge-“Over” and
Panthers, based on “totals” and series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO... Jags “under” 3-2 away
TY and 8-4 “under” on road since LY. Tech edge-slight to
“under,” based on “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Chiefs 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY and
have covered last 2 at Qualcomm. KC has also covered its last 3 as
visitor in '09. Tech edge- Chiefs, based on series trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Series “over” 5-1 last 6, Ravens
still 6-3 vs. line last 9 meetings. Tomlin 1-5 vs. line last 6 as visitor
Ravens 9-4 vs. line as host since LY and “under” last 4 TY. Tech
edge-Ravens, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November
30)...Belichick 6-2 as dog since ‘06 (1-0 TY), also 8-4 vs. line away
since LY. Saints 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Superdome. Saints “over” 14-
4 last 18 as host. Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

BUFFALO
One of the more enduring trends in the MAC is Buffalo’s
prowess on the road. The Bulls have covered 12 of their last 15 as
visitor, and seek to further improve upon that mark Friday at reeling
Kent State. Note that Buffalo has also covered its last 3 trips to Dix
Stadium, and as always appears as a featured play with HC Turner
Gill in the Coach and Pointspread system. Meanwhile, after a
midseason uptick the Golden Flashes have lost and failed to cover
their last two, posting a poor -12.00 “AFS” (Away From Spread)
in the process.

TULSA
Potent Tulsa provides us our last chance to go against Memphis
before the ‘09 Tigers vaporize forever, and we’re not about to miss
the opportunity when these CUSA rivals square off Friday at
Chapman (nee Skelly) Stadium. To put it mildly, Memphis has been
awful, on the verge of one of the worst-ever pointspread seasons
after dropping 9 of its first 10 (and now 10 of 11 since late ‘08) vs.
the line. Included are six straight spread losses away from home,
and a poor -13.00 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark the last two
weeks. On the other hand, the Golden Hurricane has covered 7 of
its last 9 as host.

NORTH CAROLINA
Revenge is in the cards Saturday at Raleigh when North
Carolina looks for some payback on nearby Tobacco Road rival NC
State. After losing 41-10 vs. the Wolfpack last year, the rematch
qualifies as a featured Painful Memory play for the Heels. UNC is
also closing the season hot, covering its last 4, while NCS has dropped
5 of its last 7 on the board. The Heels have also posted a positive
+16.50 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark their last two games.

NAVY
For many years, Navy has provided outstanding pointspread
value on the road, and things should be no different Saturday night
at Honolulu when the Mids sail in to invade Aloha Stadium and take
care of business vs. host Hawaii. Note Navy’s 32-16 spread mark
its last 48 away from Annapolis, as well as 13-5 its last 18 tries as
road chalk.

KANSAS CITY
Don’t look now, but one of the NFL’s hottest pointspread teams is
none other than Kansas City, with five covers in its last six
(including three straight on the road) heading into Sunday’s game
at San Diego. The Chiefs have also covered handily their last two
trips to Qualcomm Stadium.

BALTIMORE
It hasn’t been an easy ride for the defending champ Steelers,
especially on the road, where HC Mike Tomlin’s team is 1-4 vs. the
line this season and now 1-6 vs. the line its last 7 away from home.
A desperate Baltimore squad will look to extend those road woes
Sunday night at M&T Bank Stadium. Note the Ravens’ 9-4 spread
mark at home since HC John Harbaugh arrived last year.

LOGICAL APPROACH

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA STATE + 3 over Arizona - At 4-7 this will be
Arizona State's Bowl game as they will miss a true Bowl for a second straight season. They
catch their biggest rival off of what has to be a demoralizing loss considering how Arizona
led Oregon last week virtually wire to wire only to be tied in the game's final minute before
losing in double OT. Had 'Zona held on to win a win here would have sent the 'Cats to the
Rose Bowl for the first time ever. Now that won't happen as the Oregon vs Oregon State
winner gets that prize. While 'Zona has been playing the "woulda-coulda-shoulda" game all
week ASU has been totally focused on this game to salvage what has been a disappointing
season. The Sun Devils have struggled on offense all seasons with QB issues but the
defense has been solid and they have the better defensive stats in this game. ASU had won
3 straight and 7 of 9 prior to Arizona winning at home last season, suggestive of ASU
having the inherently stronger program. Revenge, the better defense and the distractions
from last week's Arizona loss point in the direction of a minor upset. Arizona State wins
23-20.

Other Featured College Selections

SOUTH CAROLINA + 3 over Clemson - These traditional rivals have opposite momentum
heading into this contest. South Carolina has lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 after starting 5-1.
Clemson has shaken off a 2-3 start to win 6 straight. Clemson has dominated this series,
winning 6 of 7 and 8 of 10 including each of the past two seasons. But the Tigers have an
even bigger game on deck - next week's ACC Championship game vs Georgia Tech in
which the winner goes to a BCS Bowl. That's not to say they will overlook the Gamecocks
but certainly thoughts of next week have to be in their minds. Meanwhile 'Carolina is totally
focused on and preparing for this contest where a win assured them of a Bowl bid at 7-5.
Carolina has faced tougher foes in the SEC and fared well, even in their losses, especially
defensively. They've had an extra week to prepare for their rival and are more than capable
of taking advantage of their edges. South Carolina wins 20-16.

LSU - 3 ½ over Arkansas - Much is being made of how last week's LSU game against Ole
Miss ended but the fact is that despite having a chance to win in the closing seconds LSU
was outplayed by the Rebels and were very fortunate to be in position before botching the
ending. Arkansas has shown solid improvement throughout the season as QB Mallet is
establishing himself as the top QB in the SEC should he return next season. The two best
units on the field will be the Arkansas offense and the LSU defense. The game will likely be
decided by how the other units perform and here the LSU offense rates better than the
Arkansas defense. LSU also has double revenge for a pair of losses to the Razorbacks,
including here two seasons ago when the Tigers were ranked #1 in the nation before being
upset 50-48 in OT. Last year LSU blew a huge lead in losing to the Hogs 31-30 in the game's
final minute. Arkansas is closing the talent gap but LSU still has the better athletes and
should be properly motivated and prepared to have their defense contain the Arkansas
attack while their own offense exploit's Arkansas' pass defense vulnerabilities. LSU win
34-20.

Ucla + 13 over USC - This was known to be a rebuilding season for USC after losing QB
Sanchez and a huge part of their defense to the NFL after last season. But it was expected
to be typical rebuilding for the Trojans meaning they would show marked improvement as
the season wore on. But such has not been the case and it can be argued that USC has
actually regressed since September, both in terms of QB play and defense. Allowing 47 and
55 points in losses to Oregon and Stanford is shocking. And the Stanford loss came at
home. Both the Cardinal and the Ducks rushed for over 300 yards on the USC defense.
UCLA's offense does not pose such a threat but they'll be facing a unit sorely lacking in
confidence. But UCLA has played solid defense all season and they face a Trojan offense
that has been held to 21 points or less in their last three games. UCLA has covered 3
straight in the series, all as underdogs, winning once straight up in 2006. UCLA's defense
should do enough to stay close against what's been a very ordinary USC offense that ranks
just # 49 nationally in yards gained and # 58 in points scored. USC wins but by just 24-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)

WEST VIRGINIA + 2 over Pittsburgh [3] LOUISVILLE + 4 ½ over Rutgers [3]
KENT STATE + 3 over Buffalo [3] TULSA - 16 over Memphis [3]
Illinois + 20 over CINCINNATI [3] BOWLING GREEN - 7 ½ over Toledo [3]
CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 13 over No. Illinois [3] Syracuse + 13 over Connecticut
Kansas + 4 over Missouri (Kansas City, MO) KENTUCKY + 3 over Tennessee
UTEP Pick 'em over Marshall OKLAHOMA - 10 over Oklahoma State
GEORGIA TECH - 7 over Georgia Utah + 7 over BYU
Rice + 29 ½ over HOUSTON Washington State + 25 over WASHINGTON
MARYLAND + 6 ½ over Boston College UNLV - 6 over San Diego State
Middle Tennessee - 3 ½ over UL MONROE Troy - 10 over UL LAFAYETTE

The Rest (Leans)

WESTERN MICHIGAN - 11 over Ball State [1] Texas - 21 over TEXAS A&M [2]
Eastern Michigan + 17 over AKRON [3] COLORADO STATE - 3 ½ over Wyoming [3]
OHIO U + 3 over Temple [3] Alabama - 10 ½ over AUBURN [3]
COLORADO + 10 over Nebraska [3] BOISE STATE - 13 over Nevada Reno [3]
Virginia Tech - 13 ½ over VIRGINIA DUKE + 3 ½ over Wake Forest
North Carolina - 6 over NORTH CAROLINA STATE Mississippi - 7 ½ over MISSISSIPPI STATE
TCU - 44 over New Mexico EAST CAROLINA - 3 ½ over Southern Miss
Central Florida - 3 over ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM Tulane + 17 ½ over SMU
Texas Tech - 20 over Baylor (Arlington, TX) FLORIDA - 24 ½ over Florida State
IDAHO - 3 over Utah State SOUTH FLORIDA + 4 * over Miami Fla
SAN JOSE STATE - 10 ½ over New Mexico State Notre Dame + 8 ½ over STANFORD
Navy - 8 ½ over HAWAII FLA ATLANTIC - 13 over Western Kentucky
ARKANSAS STATE - 7 over North Texas

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ATLANTA - 12 over Tampa Bay - Atlanta returns home
following a pair of road losses and needs a win here if they are to remain serious
contenders for a Wild Card. Tampa Bay is still a team in transition with vulnerabilities on
both sides of the football. The offense is unlikely to be able to trade points with the more
mature Atlanta offense. Defensively Atlanta is allowing half as many points at home (14) as
they are on the road (28). Atlanta has also played the more demanding schedule and has
fared better against common opponents. In fact, Atlanta steps down in class here to face
only their second foe this season who is currently 3-7 or worse. Against the other such foe
the Falcons defeated Washington 31-17 - the same Redskins team that defeated Tampa Bay
a few weeks earlier. Even in losses Atlanta fared much better against New Orleans and the
Giants than did the Buccs. Tampa is allowing over 100 more yards per game than they gain
and are last in the league defending the run (169 ypg). Atlanta wins handily, 37-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

DALLAS - 13 ½ over Oakland (Thursday) - Dallas' defense has played well the past two weeks
while the offense has struggled. Oakland is last in the league in total offense at 227 yards per
game. Oakland is off of their upset win over Cincinnati, catching the Bengals in a bad situation
and needing all 60 minutes to capitalize on it. The Raiders are # 30 at stopping the run which
should allow the Cowboys to display their well balanced offense (# 8 rush, # 9 pass). Dallas clings
to a one game lead in the NFC East and face a foe incapable of trading points even with
Oakland's QB change. Dallas will be aggressive on offense with the knowledge that they can
overcome mistakes against this foe. Dallas has won and covered 3 straight Turkey Day games, all
in this price range, defeating Tampa Bay 38-10 (12.5) in 2006, the Jets 34-3 ( -14.5) in 2007 and
Seattle 34-9 (-12) last season. The situation sets up well for a similar result here. Dallas wins
37-13.

Jacksonville + 3 over SAN FRANCISCO - At 6-4 Jacksonville is a player in the AFC Wild
Card chase. They have a strong running game and a capable QB which gives them significant
edges on offense over the 49ers. San Francisco has not made much progress since they started
3-1, losing 5 of their last 6 and being outgained by over 100 yards in 4 of the 6. Jacksonville has
the better rushing attack (# 6). The 49ers have rushed for over 113 yards just once this season.
And their QB play has been below average. It's hard to ask a team that is being outgained by 73
ypg to cover any line as a favorite. The Jags have won 3 straight and are playing their best ball of
the season. San Francisco struggled two weeks ago to defeat Chicago 10-6 despite being + 4 in
turnover margin. That suggests some serious problems on offense. This game handicaps as a
toss up with the Jags having the better current form and getting points. Jacksonville wins 23-17.

New England + 3 over NEW ORLEANS (Monday) - This game will be hard pressed to match
the game two weeks ago when New England nearly ended Indianapolis' perfect season but
it should be just as entertaining. And likely just as high scoring as both teams have potent
offenses capable of big plays from any point on the field. For the Saints this game is
sandwiched between a pair of 2 game road trips. For the Pats it's sandwiched between AFC
East foes the Jets and Miami. It's hard to pass up taking points with the Patriots who've not
been underdogs to an NFC team since defeating St Louis 40-22 as 2 point road pups in
2004. Since then they've been favored 19 straight times against the NFC, winning 17 with 1
of the 2 losses being to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The Pats end the Saints' unbeaten
season. New England wins 34-27.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)

Indianapolis - 3 over HOUSTON MINNESOTA - 11 over Chicago
BUFFALO + 3 ½ over Miami TENNESSEE - 1 over Arizona
ST LOUIS + 2 ½ over Seattle Kansas City + 13 ½ over SAN DIEGO

The Rest (Leans)

Green Bay - 10 over DETROIT (Thursday) N Y Giants - 6 ½ over DENVER (Thursday)
Cleveland + 14 over CINCINNATI PHILADELPHIA - 9 over Washington
N Y JETS - 3 over Carolina BALTIMORE - 2 over Pittsburgh

Best of the NFL Totals

Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47 ½ Indianapolis/Houston OVER 49
Washington/Philadelphia UNDER 41 Miami/Buffalo UNDER 39 ½
Arizona/Tennessee OVER 46 ½ Seattle/St Louis UNDER 42
Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER 40 New England/New Orleans OVER 56

Money Line Recommendations

College: LOUISVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA Kansas ARIZONA STATE
Pro: BUFFALO ST LOUIS Jacksonville New England

Nelly's GreenSheet

RATING 5 GEORGIA TECH (-7) over Georgia
RATING 4 SYRACUSE (+12½) over Connecticut
RATING 3 BOWLING GREEN (-7½) over Toledo
RATING 2 ILLINOIS (+18) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-28) over Rice
RATING 1 DUKE (+3) over Wake Forest
RATING 1 BAYLOR (+22½) over Texas Tech

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2009

Texas (-22½) TEXAS A&M 7:00 PM
The Longhorns are locked into the Big XII championship game but Texas lost the last time
they visited College Station. Winning both of those games should land Texas into the BCS
championship game but there will be arguments made elsewhere. Texas has been on cruise
control with five consecutive wins by at least 27 points and three of those wins came away
from home. Texas A&M is now bowl eligible with a dominant win last week against Baylor and
the Aggies have scored at least 31-points in every home game. Texas is allowing just 50
yards per game on the ground this season so there will be a big battle in the trenches as A&M
rushes for over 190 yards per game. A&M finished with a net -24 rushing yards last season in
this match-up so for the Aggies to have a shot QB Jerrod Johnson will need to make plays.
Johnson actually has more TD passes and fewer interceptions than his more heralded
counterpart Colt McCoy, though McCoy has an incredible 73 percent completion percentage.
Texas needs to impress to hold its ground but this could be a tougher than expected game as
the Aggies can score points and have performed well at home. TEXAS BY 16

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2009

Pittsburgh (-1½) WEST VIRGINIA 6:00 PM
The Backyard Brawl will have significant implications this season as Pittsburgh is 9-1 and
could still challenge undefeated Cincinnati for the Big East title and the BCS spot. West
Virginia has lost two of the last three games to spoil a 6-1 start to the year but this rivalry has
featured some intense games in recent years with each of the past two games settled by just
four points in low-scoring defensive battles. Pittsburgh has won both of those games and the
Panthers have had more recent ATS success in this series even though West Virginia has
generally been the more prominent program. These teams are very similar in run/pass
balance and although Pittsburgh’s numbers are slightly better on both sides of the ball, the
schedule has also been significantly lighter. West Virginia has actually been out-gained in the
last four games in the heart of conference play and Pitt QB Bill Stull has been the superior
play-maker. West Virginia is actually just 2-8 ATS in the last ten at home. PITTSBURGH BY 6

Rutgers (-4½) LOUISVILLE 10:00 AM
After three consecutive wins and covers and a perfect road record, the Scarlet Knights were
ambushed at Syracuse last week in a stunning loss. Rutgers had just 130 yards of offense last
week and now goes on the road again against a Louisville team that has played respectably
on defense despite averaging just 18 points per game on offense. Rutgers won 63-14 last
season at home in this match-up with over 670 yards of offense but that is not likely to be the
case this season. Rutgers is a marginal offensive team and freshman QB Tom Savage is
completing just 55 percent of his passes. As bad as the Louisville offense has been, the
Cardinals have actually been more productive in terms of yardage and Rutgers has faced one
of the weakest schedules in the nation. LOUISVILLE BY 3

AKRON (-17) Eastern Michigan 1:00 PM
Avoiding 0-12 will certainly provide some motivation for Eastern Michigan but the Eagles have
failed to cover in nine of eleven games, making it tough to expect a competitive effort. Akron
has endured a very disappointing season with just two wins despite the expectation of
contending in the MAC East. The scoring numbers are fairly similar for these teams on
offense but Eastern Michigan is allowing nearly 40 points per game. The Eagles actually have
a slightly stronger running game and QB play has been shaky for both squads as both teams
lost their original starter early in the year. Akron has not enjoyed many favorable match-ups at
home and this could be an opportunity for a strong effort. Eastern Michigan is playing its fourth
road game in five weeks to close the season and this squad seems content with its winless
fate even though laying points with the Zips has a lot of risk. AKRON BY 21

Buffalo (-4) KENT STATE 1:00 PM
Kent State could still reach bowl eligibility and a .500 record but it is highly unlikely that a 6-6
MAC team would be invited. Kent actually beat Buffalo last season just before the Bulls won
the MAC championship game, rushing for over 300 yards in this match-up. Buffalo has been
the far superior rushing team this season and despite a 4-7 record the Bulls are out-gaining
opponents by over 50 yards per game. The last three losses for Buffalo have come by a
combined total of seven points but the Bulls have not had the good fortune enjoyed last
season when they featured one of the top turnover margins in the nation. Buffalo has outgained
its opponents in seven of the last eight games despite going 3-5 in that span and this
team has actually been significantly more productive than last year’s team despite it not
adding it up on the scoreboard as the scoring numbers are down. Look for Buffalo to prove
superior to its record with an excellent final performance. BUFFALO BY 6

COLORADO STATE (-3) Wyoming 1:00 PM
The Rams were a bowl team last season and started 2009 with a 3-0 record but Colorado
State has now lost eight straight games, handing New Mexico its first win last week. Colorado
State has only covered once in the losing streak but last season the Rams defeated Wyoming
31-20 on the road. Wyoming has a shot to get to 6-6 and be bowl eligible with a win this week
and there would be a spot waiting in the New Mexico Bowl assuming TCU is selected for a
BCS spot. For the season Wyoming has been out-scored by nearly 12 points per game and
out-gained by nearly 95 yards per game so this will not be the finest representation from the
Mountain West. Even though Colorado State has shown a decent rushing attack at times
there should be a strong incentive for an excellent Wyoming performance even if the Cowboys
have not been a reliable road team in recent years. WYOMING BY 7

Temple (-3) OHIO U 1:00 PM
The Bobcats got a couple of big plays to deliver a key win last week and this game will decide
the MAC East title. Temple cruised to a comfortable win for the second straight week last
week and the Owls are 7-0 in MAC play and 8-2 ATS for the season. Ohio was upset by Kent
State at home earlier in the season but at 6-1 they will host this finale with the winner facing
Central Michigan for the MAC title. Both teams will be bowl bound and through very similar
schedules Temple has slight advantages on both sides of the ball statistically. Ohio has been
a fortunate team in terms of turnovers but a hidden edge for Temple may be the excellent
special team play that the Owls have often received. Ohio was badly out-gained last week but
got two non-offensive touchdowns but this is a team that seems to find ways to stay in games.
Temple has been the more impressive team and it will be tough for Ohio to deliver another win
after knowing they needed to win last week and coming through. TEMPLE BY 7

Alabama (-12½) AUBURN 1:30 PM
The Crimson Tide won 36-0 last season to add extra fuel for an already intense rivalry for
Auburn. The Tigers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and there would be nothing
more satisfying in an up-and-down season than ending Alabama’s undefeated run. Auburn
had won six straight in this series until last season and the Tigers have covered in five of the
last seven games as home underdogs. Alabama is still perfect and although there will be no
overlooking a rival for the SEC championship game that match-up with Florida will certainly
have some attention. This is also just the fourth road game that Alabama has played all
season, though the Tide has covered in each contest. Statistically these teams are pretty
close on offense, with Auburn actually featuring slight edges, averaging 441 yards per game.
Alabama has dominated on defense however, allowing less than ten points per game and only
225 yards per game. Last year Auburn had just 170 yards in this match-up plus three fumbles.
Auburn’s schedule has rated a bit more difficult and QB Chris Todd has 19 touchdowns,
posting better numbers than Alabama counterpart Greg McElroy who will start his first Iron
Bowl. Look for a noble effort from the Tigers in a close game. ALABAMA BY 10

TULSA (-15½) Memphis 2:30 PM
After winning the C-USA West last season Tulsa has turned a promising start to the season
into a six-game losing streak. Most of the losses have come in close games but all season
goals have evaporated as a losing season has been clinched. Memphis players should give a
solid effort at home in the final game for Coach West and last week the Tigers were a rare
rush-doubling underdog loser, out-gaining Houston 243-111 on the ground despite a 41-point
loss. Injuries and a very tough conference draw have been a driving force in the losing season
for Memphis as the offense has been reasonably productive for a team with a 2-9 record. The
Memphis defense has struggled but Tulsa is also allowing a lot of points and this could be a
favorable match-up for both offenses. These teams have not played since ’06 and after bowl
seasons last year it will be a disappointing finish for both squads. Tulsa is a tough team to
trust giving double-digit points on a long losing streak even though the Golden Hurricane has
shown more potential this season. TULSA BY 10

CINCINNATI (-18) Illinois 11:00 AM
There is a lot on the line for the Bearcats and even though TCU appears to be ahead for the
moment for the potential next in line spot behind the SEC champion and Texas. Cincinnati’s
strength of schedule will be improving the next two weeks while TCU faces one of the worst
teams in FBS this week. Illinois has had a very disappointing season but the Illini have shown
some life of late, covering in three of the final four games and beating Michigan and
Minnesota. Illinois could be a dangerous underdog in this game because they are the far
better rushing team, averaging over 190 yards per game on the ground. Cincinnati’s offense
has been outstanding but the defense has been fairly average and the schedule has been
tougher for Illinois. Illinois has covered in eight of the last ten games as double-digit
underdogs while Cincinnati certainly may be looking past a 3-8 Illinois team considering how
big the game next week against Pittsburgh will be. Cincinnati has failed to cover in close calls
the last two games at home and this looks like a team that has passed its value apex while
Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for a season-making performance. Cincinnati is just 1-3
ATS at home this season and the Bearcats could have a tough transition working with two
QBs as original starter Tony Pike is certainly ready for full-time action. CINCINNATI BY 10

Nebraska (-8½) COLORADO 2:30 PM
The Buffaloes are just 3-8 but with a near upset at Oklahoma State last week, the Buffaloes
showed that this is still a team that can compete. Colorado is 0-6 on the road this season and
3-1 at home, beating Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. Colorado coach Dan Hawkins is
certainly feeling some pressure and this game will show how much his players are behind
him. Nebraska’s win last week clinched the Big XII North title and this is really a meaningless
game as the only shot at improving its bowl stock will be in the championship game against
Texas. Nebraska has won four straight games as the offense is playing very conservatively
and the defense has been good enough to win games on its own. Nebraska has allowed just
30-points on the four-game winning streak but the margins of victory have been fairly narrow.
Colorado does not run the ball effectively but the run defense has been very good at home
this season and the Buffaloes are scoring nearly as many points as Nebraska is. Given the
lack of urgency likely in this game for Nebraska and a final game at home for a Colorado team
that has been better than its record, this is a serious upset threat. The underdog has covered
in ten of the last 13 meetings and Colorado has had success in this series. NEBRASKA BY 3

BOWLING GREEN (-7½) Toledo 1:00 PM
A win here would give Bowling Green a shot a making a bowl game getting to 7-5 as the
Falcons are riding a three-game win streak entering this home finale. Bowling Green has not
been a reliable home team in past years but they have two wins and covers at home this
season and three home losses came to teams that have combined to go 28-5. Toledo can get
to .500 with a win here but it is unlikely that the Rockets could find a call to a bowl game.
Toledo does have three outright wins as underdogs this season but the Rockets are also 8-20
ATS on the road since ’05. Last season Bowling Green out-gained Toledo by over 300 yards
in a 38-10 win and despite seeming like a rebuilding year, the Falcons have not fallen that far
this season. Toledo starter Aaron Opelt got very limited action last week and his status is
questionable this week while Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan quietly has delivered an
impressive season, completing over 64 percent with 21 TDs. BOWLING GREEN BY 14

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-9½) Northern Illinois 12:00 PM
The loss for Northern Illinois last week gave Central Michigan the MAC West title and stole the
thunder from this potential finale. The Huskies still have a lot to play for as they should ensure
a bowl spot by getting to 8-4. Central Michigan would love to finish 8-0 in the MAC but in
reality, next week’s game is more important. While Central Michigan has looked like the best
team in this conference, the Chippewas did draw a favorable MAC schedule as they missed
the top two teams from the East division. Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour has delivered
an excellent season but Northern Illinois is the far better rushing team, averaging 210 yards
per game. The Huskies also allow just 300 yards per game on defense for the best numbers
in the conference. Adding fuel for motivation for the Huskies is an overtime loss last season at
home against Central Michigan and this looks like a very favorable situation for the underdog.
Central Michigan would be a tough team to go against in many situations but this should be a
great spot for an underdog with a superior defense and running game. CENTRAL BY 4

BOISE STATE (-12) Nevada 9:00 PM
While Boise State is often discounted for the weakness of the WAC schedule, this adversary
has been building a lot of momentum and should provide Boise State the match-up it needs to
elevate its profile. Nevada ranks second in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring
while featuring the top ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 373 yards per game.
The numbers dwarf the impressive offensive figures for the Broncos but Boise State has been
the vastly superior defensive team. This game is also being played on the blue turf where
Boise State has never lost in the regular season under Coach Peterson. This could be mustsee
TV as Boise Sate won 69-67 the last time these teams met in Boise. The Wolf Pack
covered in that game but Boise State has covered in every other lined meeting. Nevada is not
the same team on the road going 3-2 S/U and 2-3 ATS on the year, while going 21-39 S/U the
last ten years. Nevada may be a popular underdog in this match-up but Boise State is too
tough to go against at home and this is its chance to shine on a national stage against a
worthy opponent that will help their computer ratings. BOISE STATE BY 17