Newsletters 11/26 - 11/30

Virginia Tech (-13) VIRGINIA 2:30 PM
While the Hokies have fallen off the national map, the losses have all come against quality
teams and Virginia Tech has rattled off three consecutive wins by a combined margin of 90-22
the last three weeks. Virginia has covered the last two weeks but the Cavaliers have now lost
five straight games and this rivalry game is the only thing keeping the season relevant.
Virginia has scored less than 20 points per game and although the defensive numbers are
respectable, the offense is getting out-gained by 80 yards per game. Both of these teams
have played incredibly difficult schedules, ranking among the best in the nation but Virginia is
just 1-5 S/U at home this season. Virginia hung around against a questionably motivated
Clemson team last week but this could be a different story even if the trends support the
Cavaliers in the underdog role at home. Virginia Tech has actually had a lot of success in this
series at on the road and the Hokies seem to be rolling. VIRGINIA TECH BY 17

CONNECTICUT (-12½) Syracuse 11:00 AM
Both teams enter this game off big wins as Connecticut knocked off Notre Dame in overtime
and Syracuse stunned Rutgers. The Orange played a terrific defensive game last week and
the season numbers actually are superior to those Connecticut has posted. The Huskies need
one more win to reach a bowl game but last week’s win felt like a bowl game for Connecticut
and a letdown is likely coming off a highly anticipated game with an emotional result.
Connecticut also has two games to get to six wins while this is the finale for Syracuse. The
Connecticut offense has been less efficient with QB Zach Frazer back at QB and Syracuse
has proven to be very solid against the run this season. Look for the Orange to deliver another
solid effort while catching Connecticut in a difficult spot. The Huskies have been an incredible
ATS team this season but that run could end as the Huskies will be overvalued this week. No
matter whom the opponent is the Huskies seem to play a close game. CONNECTICUT BY 3

Wake Forest (-3) DUKE 11:00 AM
Wake Forest has not lost to Duke since ’99 but the Blue Devils have covered four of the last
five years in this match-up. The Demon Deacons enter this game off a bye week but also
riding a five-game losing streak. Duke lost last week to Miami but it was a much closer game
than the final margin but nevertheless it was a third consecutive loss. Duke played two FCS
teams this season but only beat one of them so a sixth win here will get them in bowl
contention. These teams have nearly identical scoring numbers for the year and both teams
are pass-heavy on offense which should make this a higher scoring game. Wake Forest will
not make the postseason but the Deacons have lost five games by three-points or less this
season and are a better team than the record indicates. Both of these teams have had trouble
finishing games but there is little reason to believe that Wake Forest will get up for this game
knowing the season has drifted past. This looks like a very even match-up and Duke’s
reputation creates some value on the Devils at home. DUKE BY 6

Clemson (-3) SOUTH CAROLINA 11:00 AM
Clemson has clinched a spot in the ACC title game against Georgia Tech and this rivalry
game may not get as much attention as it normally might. South Carolina enters this game off
a bye week and coming off three consecutive losses. Statistically these teams are remarkably
even in terms of yardage but the scoring numbers have not added up for the Gamecocks
through a much tougher schedule. South Carolina is bowl eligible but this will be a key game
coming off narrow losses in this series the past two years. The Gamecocks have not had an
off week all season long so this should be a rejuvenated squad that had been worn down by
the physical SEC schedule. The motivation has to come into question for Clemson as a lot
more will be on the line next week with the ACC championship. South Carolina will prove how
tough an SEC defense can be. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 3

North Carolina (-5½) NC STATE 11:00 AM
NC State has won the last two years in this series including a 41-10 blowout win last year.
North Carolina has been carried by defense this season, including two defensive scores last
week and the Tar Heels allow less than 16 points per game. NC State QB Russell Wilson has
delivered a fine statistical season with 27 touchdowns and the Wolfpack average more than
100 yards better than the Tar Heels per game on offense. Nearly the same can be said on
defense however as NC State has allowed at least 30 points in each of the last eight games
after allowing a total of 28 points through the first three games. NC State makes for a
dangerous home underdog with a passing offense that can score quickly and the Wolfpack
are on a 7-2 ATS run as home dogs. The Tar Heels have won and covered in four straight
games but North Carolina was very fortunate last week to capitalize on turnovers while their
own sloppy play on offense went unpunished. NORTH CAROLINA BY 3

Missouri (-4) Kansas @Kansas City, Missouri 2:30 PM
After a 5-0 start, Kansas is now 5-6 and the Jayhawks have failed to cover in eight
consecutive games. Off-the-field issues have been distractions and a long season with
potential off-season changes potentially looming can’t end soon enough. Missouri has
endured an up-and-down season but wins in three of the last four weeks after a 0-3 Big XII
start has the Tigers in the bowl picture. QB Blaine Gabbert appears healthy now and Missouri
has scored at least 32-points each of the last four games. Through similar schedules these
teams have posted almost identical statistics but the results have been dramatically different.
Kansas needs to win to make a bowl game but it is hard to figure how much that matters with
this team that has destructed. This is still an intense rivalry but Missouri appears to be in much
better position to succeed in this match-up. Kansas won narrowly last season but Missouri
delivered convincing wins the previous two meetings in this series. MISSOURI BY 9

Tennessee (-3½) KENTUCKY 6:00 PM
Tennessee has completely dominated the recent history of this series including covering in 13
of the last 17 meetings. The Wildcats have the better record but the Volunteers have played
the tougher schedule and appear to be the superior team statistically on both sides of the ball.
While Kentucky enters this game off an upset win over Georgia, Tennessee did what it
needed to do last week to beat Vanderbilt in a somewhat uninspired performance. Kentucky
has won five of the last six games but there have only been two quality wins on the season.
Tennessee’s losses have been more impressive than their wins as they played Florida and
Alabama tougher than just about anyone. This line is not where it should be as these teams
rate nearly identically and Tennessee has zero S/U road wins this season. Kentucky is
proving to be a tough match-up and even though Tennessee has had success in this series
this is a different coaching staff and the Vols enter this game off a rivalry win that clinched a
bowl spot last week. Tennessee gets a bit more respect in the media but Kentucky continues
to impress with a 5-1 spread record the last six lined games. KENTUCKY BY 3

Mississippi (-7) MISSISSIPPI STATE 11:20 AM
The schedule Mississippi State has faced rates as the toughest of any SEC team and
although the Bulldogs have just four wins this is a team that has lost several close games
against quality opponents. Ole Miss was incredibly fortunate to hold on to win last week in a
highly anticipated game and despite an 8-3 record the Rebels have been a bit of a
disappointment this season. Mississippi won 45-0 last season in this match-up but Mississippi
State has won the last two meetings in Starkville. Bulldogs QB Tyson Lee has struggled with
interceptions but Mississippi QB Jevan Snead has actually thrown more picks this year, while
completing only 53 percent of his passes. Mississippi has had recent success on the ground
but Mississippi State has had the superior rushing attack for the season, averaging 220 yards
per game. The home team has covered in six of the last nine meetings in the Egg Bowl and
this could be a tough spot for the Rebels after back-to-back huge games, facing Tennessee
and LSU at home the past two weeks. If Mississippi State can avoid turnovers this will be a
very tight game and the Bulldogs could catch Ole Miss a little flat after a very big win and an
incredible finish last week. Mississippi State is much better than the 4-7 record indicates and a
strong rushing home underdog always makes for an attractive play-on team, even more so in
a final home game rivalry match-up. OLE MISS BY 3

TCU (-43½) New Mexico 12:00 PM
This is TCU’s last chance to impress the voters and the computers before what could be an
interesting waiting game next week. Not playing this game would probably help TCU more
with the computers than any possible results as New Mexico picked up its first win of the
season last week. TCU has won and covered in every meeting in this series since joining the
Mountain West but the line has never been greater than six points. Despite laying over 20
points in five of the six games, TCU has covered in six consecutive games and this team is
doing everything it can to get attention with some serious blowout numbers. TCU’s defense is
still the strength of the team however and the Frogs are allowing less than 13 points per
game. Last week was the game that New Mexico knew it had a shot at winning to avoid 0-12
and the Lobos played well to squeak out the victory. A letdown could be in order as odd as it
sounds for a squad with a 1-10 record. TCU is 17-4 the last 21 games as home favorites and
the Frogs will not let up here as a final statement for the voters. TCU BY 55

EAST CAROLINA (-3½) Southern Miss 12:3 0 PM
This will be a Conference USA East title game as a prelude to the Conference title game next
week for the victor. East Carolina is a game up in the standings but Southern Miss can match
that mark and win the tie-breaker with the upset this week. East Carolina is the defending
champion in this conference but they did not beat the Golden Eagles last season, and have
won in this series just once S/U or ATS in the last eight years. Southern Miss has been a
more impressive offensive team but the schedule has been significantly lighter. East Carolina
has a reputation as a very solid defensive team but the numbers do not back up that
perception as the Pirates allow 366 yards per game. Southern Miss gave up a lot of yardage
last week but QB Martevious Young has moved in to the starting role with great efficiency and
few mistakes. The Southern Miss running game also provides over 190 yards per game. The
Golden Eagles have actually been out-gained in five of the last six games despite four wins
and the Eagle defense could have a tough time against a suddenly productive Pirates team
that has scored at least 37 points the last four conference games. EAST CAROLINA BY 7

Central Florida (-3) UAB 12:30 PM
UAB could reach .500 with a win this week as the Blazers have won three of the last four
games. UAB had a big rushing edge last week yet lost and failed to cover as a double-digit
underdog. UAB rushes for 232 yards per game and a big edge on the ground should again be
expected in this match-up. UAB won 15-0 last season in this series but Central Florida has
been a much better offensive team this season, particularly in recent weeks. The Golden
Knights amazingly out-gained Central Florida 504-50 last week and the Central Florida
defense is allowing just 73 yards per game this season. UCF has covered in each of the last
six road games but UAB is on a 5-1 cover run at home. This should be a bigger game for the
Blazers as UCF got the win it needed in dominating fashion last week. The Knights lost to
Southern Miss and East Carolina so they are not in play in the East division race while UAB
needs one more win to be bowl eligible. UAB BY 4

UTEP (-1) Marshall 2:00 PM
The Thundering Herd picked up their sixth win last week to become bowl eligible despite
losing the cover on a late score. Marshall has been out-scored and out-gained for the season
but generally is a team that stays close in games as an underdog. Marshall has not topped 31
points in a game all season so expecting a blowout win, particularly on the road off a big win
would be a stretch. UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation with just
three wins on the season in a season where they were expected to be a division title
contender. The schedule has been tough of late with the last three games coming on the road
and the Miners have lost each in painful fashion. Five losses this season have come by seven
points or less so it has been a year where the Miners easily could have fared better. The
defensive numbers for UTEP present a lot of serious concerns however as over 34 points and
442 yards per game are being allowed. Still, even with a porous defense the Miners have
stayed close in a lot of games and at home UTEP beat both Houston and Tulsa so this could
be a challenging game for Marshall although this line is adjusted too far. MARSHALL BY 4

SMU (-17) Tulane 2:00 PM
Tulane has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series and though bowl eligible
SMU has a very suspect resume. SMU was in control of its own destiny for the C-USA West
title until getting upset last week and they will now need 2-9 Rice to knock off 9-2 Houston in
addition to winning this week. Still it has been a fine turnaround season for the Mustangs even
if several wins have come by very slim margins. Tulane had a dreadful performance last week
and the Green Wave has lost S/U and ATS in six of the last seven games. As bad as the
numbers on defense are for SMU, Tulane has been worse but SMU is 4-11 ATS in the last 15
home games while going 0-7 in the last seven games as favorites. As bad as Tulane has
been, backing SMU looks very risky in this spot as last week was the must-win game for the
Mustangs and the final home game will lack serious meaning with the conference title hopes
basically out of the picture. SMU BY 13

Texas Tech (-22½) Baylor @Arlington, Texas 5:00 PM
In what amounted to the biggest game of the season for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders
absolutely crushed Oklahoma, 41-13. Texas Tech will play an awkward neutral site game this
week before heading to a bowl game but last week’s win will be the season highlight. Facing a
Baylor squad that has shown the potential to move the ball could fall into a dangerous
category. Baylor is 1-6 in the last seven games but the win came impressively at Missouri. QB
Nick Florence is passing for big numbers even though turnovers have been part of the
equation. Baylor has been the better rushing team between these two teams and the Bears
have had to endure a much tougher overall schedule. Defensively there is not a huge
difference between these teams even with Texas Tech playing extremely well last week and
Baylor getting blown out. Last season Baylor lost by just seven at Texas Tech and this could
be tough spot for the Red Raiders to cover an inflated spread. Baylor was burned by turnovers
last week in a lopsided loss against a motivated opponent. This could be a much better
situation for the Bears as they should be able to move the ball and the Red Raiders have
been turnover prone as well as the QB position. TEXAS TECH BY 14

OKLAHOMA (NL) Oklahoma State 11:30 AM
The Sooners are just 6-5 on the season and the best win on the resume in terms of the caliber
of opponent is 6-5 Texas A&M in Norman. While Oklahoma State has lost twice the Cowboys
can wrap up a very nice 10-2 regular season campaign with a win this week. Although the Big
XII North title is sealed up for Texas, the Cowboys could make a compelling argument for a
BCS at-large spot. Oklahoma State has defeated five bowl teams and the two losses came
against teams that are a combined 20-2. Oklahoma has covered in five of the last six games
in this series and Sooners are on a 15-5 ATS run at home. All five S/U losses for the Sooners
came in road or neutral site games so some of the ugly numbers should be thrown out as OU
has still been dominant at home, out-scoring foes 50-10. For the season Oklahoma has been
better on both sides of the ball in terms of yardage and with Cowboy QB Zac Robinson
unlikely to play this could be a tough day for a very inexperienced QB, likely sophomore
Brandon Weeden, who would be making his first start after a successful relief appearance last
week. The home team has covered in eight of the last eleven meetings and the Sooners
should bounce back after one of the worst OU losses in a long time. OKLAHOMA BY 10

FLORIDA (-23) Florida State 2:30 PM
This game did not trip up the Gators on their national title quest last season, winning by 30
plus for the second straight year in this series. The Gators certainly could have some attention
on the Alabama match-up in the SEC championship but Florida has had overwhelming
success in this series in recent years. While it has been far from a banner season for Florida
State, the Seminoles have won four of the last five in ACC play and the one loss in that stretch
came against Clemson in a game they led most of the way. Every loss has come very
narrowly as the Seminoles have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, playing
eight teams that are bowl eligible. Florida State is scoring over 31 points per game so the
offense should be able to match-up offensively in this game. Florida has a clear edge on
defense but the Gators have struggled to cover against quality opponents this season going 1-
4 ATS in the past five SEC games. While Florida State back-up QB E.J. Manuel struggled last
week with three interceptions he has shown the ability to make a lot of great plays and he
provides a threat on the ground as well. This will be an inflated spread and the Seminoles
should be able to get on the board. FLORIDA BY 17

GEORGIA TECH (-7) Georgia 7:00 PM
The Yellow Jackets are 10-1 and cruising with eight straight wins, climbing up the national
rankings. Georgia Tech won 45-42 last season in this series, but this will be a much different
role than the recent history of this series, playing as a heavy favorite. Tech has had two weeks
to prepare for this game but some attention may be on the more critical ACC championship
game and the subsequent BCS title berth. Georgia Tech features and incredible rushing
attack that should have a lot of success against a very disappointing Georgia defense.
Despite the criticism Georgia has faced, the Yellow Jackets have actually allowed more yards
this season despite the contrasting records. Georgia’s loss last week to Kentucky will sting for
the Bulldogs but it also could help motivate in this final rivalry game. Georgia is bowl eligible
and the Bulldogs had won seven in a row in this series prior to last season’s loss. Georgia
Tech has been on an incredible ATS roll making them a very tough team to go against with a
lower line than this match-up projects out at. Georgia continues to fail in key spots and the
Bulldogs can not be relied on to avoid turnovers. GEORGIA TECH BY 16

BYU (-7½) Utah 4:00 PM
Most years this game might be for the Mountain West championship but TCU has taken over
the conference this year, blowing out both of these teams. Utah doubled up BYU last season
winning 48-24 and the underdog is 9-3 in the last twelve meetings. BYU is just 1-7 ATS in the
last eight home games and the Cougars have just two wins against teams that are bowl
eligible, their opening win over Oklahoma and last week’s win over Air Force. Utah has just
one win over a winning team and the Utes have a 4-7 ATS record. The offense has had
decent production under QB Jordan Wynn but he has been less efficient passing then
Terrance Cain was. Utah has been the superior running team and the better defensive team
which should help in this match-up, particularly playing as an underdog. Home field has meant
little in this series and even though BYU is favored here, Utah looks like the superior team.
Look for another tight game in this series as last year’s result was atypical with turnovers
creating the lopsided result. UTAH BY 3

HOUSTON (-28) Rice 7:00 PM
Rice has been out-gained in nine consecutive games but the Owls have picked up wins the
last two weeks after a winless start to the year. The Owls must go against the conference
leader Houston, with a division title on the line for the Cougars this week. While Houston has
allowed eleven fewer points per game, Rice actually has allowed fewer yards per game on the
year. The offensive production for Houston is among the best in the nation however and the
vulnerability for the Cougars has mainly come against teams that can run the ball extremely
well. Rice is not that team and the Owls have been fortunate to sneak out wins the last two
weeks. Rice actually beat Houston 56-42 last season but this figures to be a convincing win
for Houston as Rice will have a hard time making stops. HOUSTON BY 35

IDAHO (NL) Utah State 4:00 PM
Utah State crushed Idaho last season 42-17 but the Vandals are the team on the rise this
year, already with seven wins. Idaho has lost three of the last four however including four
consecutive ATS misses after a 7-0 spread start. Both QBs in this match-up have had fine
seasons but Idaho’s excellent QB Nathan Enderle has missed the last two games and is
questionable this week. Utah State has been on an excellent ATS run as an underdog but the
Aggies have not been able to finish games with several narrow losses on the year. Idaho
meanwhile has pulled out several of those games and the Vandals have been slightly stronger
on both sides of the ball this season. Utah State is 0-6 S/U on the road this season while
Idaho has had success at home, with the lone home loss coming in a close game against
Fresno State. If Enderle can play Idaho should be able to pull out a win even though the
Aggies have been a threat as an underdog in several games this season. IDAHO BY 10

WASHINGTON (-24) Washington State 5:30 PM
The Huskies have lost six of the last seven games but all three wins came against bowl-bound
teams and it has been a successful turnaround year after a winless 2008. Although
Washington fell short in several games this season they have proven to be competitive
against many of the top teams in the Pac-10. Washington State is 1-10 on the season but they
have defeated Washington the last two seasons and four of the last five years. The Huskies
are also on a horrendous run as favorites, going 11-30-3 going back to ’00. The Cougars won
in double-OT last season but the Huskies should be very motivated coming off a string of
losses and a bye week. Washington State is scoring just 13 points per game while allowing
nearly 40 points per game. Washington is giving up 420 yards per game but it is still 95 yards
less than allowed by the Cougars. The schedules rate as the top two toughest schedules in
the conference for these teams but Washington is the team likely to rebound with a dominant
win, finally back at home where all three of the wins came. WASHINGTON BY 27

Arizona (-3) ARIZONA STATE 2:30 PM
Arizona has had a lot of success in this series but the psyche of the team could be in question
after back-to-back painfully tough losses the last two weeks have wiped out Pac-10 title
hopes. Arizona State has lost five straight games but the Sun Devils are a sound defensive
team and third string QB Samson Szakacsy, forced into action due to injuries, has actually
shown solid promise in his limited action. Arizona State actually out-gained UCLA and USC in
recent losses and the Sun Devils have covered in four of five lined home games this season.
The road team has had more success in this series but this is a rare instance of a road
favorite. The trends support Arizona with recent success in this series and a poor underdog
record for ASU but this looks like a problematic situation for the Wildcats even though they
have been a very impressive team for most of the season. ARIZONA STATE BY 4

Boston College (-6) Maryland 6:00 PM
Turnovers were costly for Boston College last week in a rare home loss but it has been
another solid season for the Eagles. BC is bowl bound while Maryland suffers through a
disastrous year, now at 2-9. The Terps played close with Florida State last week but Maryland
is allowing over 400 yards and 32 points per game. Boston College is amazingly on a 9-1 run
as road favorites and the Eagles have been a much more efficient scoring team despite
similar offensive output in terms of yards. BC won by seven last season and the Eagles have
won and covered in three of four ACC meetings. BC QB David Shinskie does not provide a
reliable option for the Eagles under center but the running game usually provides solid
support. Maryland QB Chris Turner could possibly be back in action this week though back-up
Lamarr Robinson had a solid game last week. The BC defense can make a lot of big plays
and even though the offense has set up some poor situations, the Eagles continue to perform
well despite suspect statistics. BOSTON COLLEGE BY 14

Miami, FL (NL) SOUTH FLORIDA 2:30 PM
The Hurricanes have certainly played a tougher schedule but statistically this looks like a fairly
even match-up. Miami has small edges on offense but USF has been the better rushing team
by a wide margin and the Bulls are a bit stouter on defense. Acclaimed Miami QB Jacory
Harris has passed for over 3,000 yards but he has also thrown 17 interceptions and this
should be a much bigger game for the Bulls with the opportunity to host one of the major
Florida schools. USF played a great game earlier this season to upset Florida State and this is
a less meaningful game for the Hurricanes who have completed the conference season and
have limited mobility in the bowl picture. At home South Florida is allowing only 16 points per
game and a home underdog with a solid defense and the superior rushing game makes for an
attractive play. Miami is 1-4 ATS in the last five games and the Hurricanes are getting a bit too
much credit for beating teams like Oklahoma and Florida State early in the season when both
turned out to be mediocre. True, the Bulls beat Florida State as well but this can be a very
tough place to play and a motivated crowd will be present. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 4

LSU (-3½) Arkansas 6:00 PM
This could be a tough spot for LSU coming off a very tough loss that will be a distraction all
week given the glaring mistakes made by the Tigers. Arkansas has now won four consecutive
games to move to 7-4 and the Razorbacks have posted very impressive numbers on offense.
The underdog is 7-3 in the last ten meetings and LSU has not performed well lately in the
home favorite role. The three LSU losses have all come against high quality competition but
many of the wins for the Tigers have been unimpressive. Arkansas has shown the ability to
score even on some of the best defenses in the nation and the scoring numbers for LSU are
better than the yardage suggests on both sides of the ball. This is a revenge spot for the
Tigers as Arkansas won 31-30 last season and 50-48 two years ago in the national
championship year but this has been an incredibly tight series the past four years. Arkansas is
6-2 ATS the last eight games and this game has upset potential. The distractions and
controversy raised all week in LSU camp can not help this situation. ARKANSAS BY 6

SAN JOSE STATE (-10) New Mexico State 7:00 PM
The Spartans lack a FBS win on the season but are rightly favored in this match-up against
three-win New Mexico State. San Jose State has played an incredibly tough schedule and
missed out on a win opportunity last week with an OT loss. New Mexico State has been outgained
in every game this season but did manage to win three games with some serious good
fortune. San Jose State has won and covered each of the last four years in this series and QB
play should be an advantage for the Spartans even if the Aggies have a slightly superior
rushing game. New Mexico State did manage to score 20 points last week after managing a
total of 16 points the previous four games but it was 63-6 before the first Aggies touchdown.
Coach Tomey has announced his retirement at San Jose State so this final home game
should carry a great focus for the Spartans even in a very difficult season. San Jose State
played well enough to win last week but fell just short while New Mexico State is averaging
just 180 yards of offense per game in road contests. The New Mexico State defense has
made some plays but likely can’t keep up in this game even though laying double-digits with a
team that is 1-8 ATS on the year is not generally recommended. SAN JOSE STATE BY 14

STANFORD (-7½) Notre Dame 7:00 PM
There is some talk of what a mismatch this game is but statistically Notre Dame is slightly
better on both sides of the ball in terms of yardage. Stanford has the edge on the ground
rushing for nearly 220 yards per game but last week the Cardinal got caught and could not
keep the momentum going. Notre Dame has won seven straight games in this series and
even though the Irish are reeling right now they will still carry the prestige of an elite program
and the Cardinal may feel like an underdog even is Vegas certainly speaks to the contrary.
Freshmen QB Andrew Luck made some mistakes last week and overall is completing just 55
percent of his passes, greatly overshadowed by the numbers that Notre Dame QB Jimmy
Clausen has posted. Stanford is 11-1 ATS in the last twelve home games but that one loss
came last week and the string of big games has caught up to the Cardinals. Stanford’s pass
defense has been picked apart in several games, notably against Oregon State and Arizona
so this may be a more problematic match-up than it appears. STANFORD BY 4

UNLV (-4) San Diego State 8:00 PM
This finale between 4-7 teams lacks intrigue and while the record may be an encouraging sign
for a rebuilding SDSU team it means major disappointment for a UNLV team expected to step
up this season. The Aztecs have covered in six of the last seven games in this series and
against a struggling UNLV defense SDSU should have a solid opportunity for an upset. UNLV
is the much better rushing team and while San Diego State was getting beat up by Utah last
week the Runnin’ Rebels were resting and this should be a favorable final game situation at
home. San Diego State has shown some promise this season but the late season slide with
four straight missed covers leaves little confidence leading into this game. UNLV BY 7

USC (-12½) Ucla 9:00 PM
The Trojans have had two weeks to pick up the pieces after an ugly loss to Stanford but USC
is 1-8 ATS in the last nine games. The scoring numbers for these teams are actually fairly
similar and USC has just one more win than UCLA. The Bruins have won three straight
games and although the opponents were the worst three teams in the conference, they played
those teams with more convincing results than when USC faced them. The Bruins have
covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and UCLA is on a 13-5 ATS run as an
underdog in this series. The UCLA offense has received a boost with Kevin Prince back at QB
and the USC QB situation is still very shaky, especially going against a play-making defense
that is allowing fewer points and fewer yards than USC. The Trojans are not accustomed to
playing late-season games without major implications and this could be a difficult spot against
a UCLA team that appears to have re-gained some momentum. USC BY 6

Navy (-7½) HAWAII 9:30 PM
Hawaii may still have thoughts of sneaking into the bowl picture with an upset wins the last
two games but it is unlikely to happen. The Warriors have four FBS wins but the opposing
teams in those games have an 8-35 combined record. Navy has had two weeks to prepare for
this game and the ground attack from the Midshipmen should control this game. Hawaii puts
up more yards but less points and Navy has featured the superior defensive team. Hawaii is
often overvalued at home given the long travel but teams are more accustomed to travel in the
current era than in past years. Hawaii is actually just 6-13-1 ATS at home since ’06 and Navy
has historically been a fantastic ATS road team. NAVY BY 14

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-12½) Western Kentucky 3:00 PM
The Hilltoppers have two more shots to avoid a winless campaign but this will be the tougher
game, playing on the road against an Owls team that has had a lot of success in the brief run
in the Sun Belt. Last season this was a very close game with the Owls sneaking out a fourpoint
win and this year Florida Atlantic must finish the season without long-time QB Rusty
Smith. Western Kentucky covered the last two games playing against two of the top teams in
the conference and playing FAU after the Owls faced a huge game against Troy could be a
favorable situation, especially off the bye week. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 7

Middle Tennessee State (-4) UL-MONROE 3:15 PM
Louisiana Monroe can get to seven wins with a win this week but last week’s disappointing
rivalry miss could haunt the team into this game. Middle Tennessee State is on a roll right now
with five consecutive wins and covers, although four of those five games came at home.
Monroe is 4-0 at home but the level of competition in those games has not been high quality.
MTSU has won seven of the last eight games in this series and the Blue Raiders have been a
slightly better team on both sides of the ball. Monroe has not held up against its toughest
competition and the Warhawks should fall short in this finale. MTSU BY 10

ARKANSAS STATE (-6½) North Texas 2:00 PM
The Red Wolves started the season with great promise playing very close games in threepoint
losses with Troy and Iowa but with two games remaining ASU has just one FBS win.
North Texas had just two wins and several close losses in what has been a small step forward
after disastrous results the past two years. This is a critical game for both teams as North
Texas finishes the season and this is the final home game for Arkansas State. This has been
a very exciting game the last two years with ASU winning narrowly and North Texas covering
and the same result could be possible this year. ARKANSAS STATE BY 3

Troy (-10) LOUISIANA 6:00 PM
The Ragin’ Cajuns came up with a big rivalry win last week to get to 6-5 and an upset this
week could get Louisiana into the bowl picture. Troy has the conference title locked up but the
Trojans will be set on a perfect conference season. Troy has scored at least 42 points in each
of the last three meetings in this series and the Trojans have just one ATS miss in conference
play this season. This will be the third road game in four weeks for Troy and although the
conference title is locked up, it is difficult to go against a team that has been as dominant as
Troy has been in Sun Belt play. A letdown is a possibility for both teams coming off big wins
but Louisiana has been tough at home with only one loss on the season. Troy has been
vulnerable in road games and the conference slate has presented few challenges as this will
be the toughest opponent on the road in Sun Belt play. An upset is a possibility if Troy
overlooks this game having already won the league. TROY BY 4

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 MIAMI (-3) over Buffalo
RATING 4 CAROLINA (+3) over NY Jets
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville
RATING 2 CLEVELAND (+14) over Cincinnati
RATING 1 ATLANTA (-11½) over Tampa Bay

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2009

Green Bay (NL) DETROIT 11:30 AM
The Packers were in control most of the way last week but gave away the cover late. That win
makes two straight for Green Bay and in the crumbling NFC the Packers are in wild card
position. The Packers have a very tough three-game stretch following this game so this is a
critical match-up to take care of business. The Lions/Browns game last week likely received
few viewers but it turned out to be an epic game and a breakthrough for rookie QB Matthew
Stafford. The health of the QB is in question this week and the Lions are likely in for a letdown
off the short week in their annual Thanksgiving game. PACKERS BY 17

DALLAS (-13½) Oakland (40½) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys have scored just 14 points the last two weeks and both scores came very late in
the games after horrendous production most of the way. Oakland caught some breaks to turn
in an incredible comeback win over Cincinnati but playing on the road could mean much more
difficult circumstances. Fill-in QB Bruce Gradkowski played capably last week but the Raiders
never would have won without a gift fumble on a kickoff return. Oakland has scored just 42
points in four road games this season and Dallas should deliver a convincing victory even if
the offense has raised major concerns the past two weeks. Dallas faced Green Bay in a tough
spot and Washington’s defense can be very good while Oakland has not proven they can play
back-to-back strong games. COWBOYS BY 17

NY Giants (-6) DENVER (42) 7:20 PM
The Giants escaped with a win last week but the defense played horribly and the offense
completely shifted out of the normal Giants plan of attack. Denver is not in the spot that the
Giants were last week with four consecutive losses and the season appears to be crumbling
for the once 6-0 Broncos. In fairness the schedule has been brutally tough for Denver facing
physical defenses in big games for the opponent. Value is back on the Broncos and QB Orton
should be back at full health after coming off the bench last week. New York’s defense does
not allow a lot of yards but the unit is giving up big plays and committing penalties which will
be costly in a tough road venue. BRONCOS BY 3

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2009

Indianapolis (NL) HOUSTON 12:00 PM
The Colts stayed perfect last week at 10-0 but for the fourth straight week Indianapolis won by
the slimmest of margins. In the first meeting between these teams, just weeks ago, the
Texans had great opportunities for the upset but could not deliver. Houston has covered in
five of the last six meetings in this series and this is a do-or-die game for the Texans and their
playoff hopes. Indianapolis can continue the perfect season but they have not been covering
spreads with misses in three of the last four weeks before a half-point cover last week. Even
QB Manning has been shaky the last two weeks and the Houston defense should create solid
pressure in the biggest game of the season for the Texans. COLTS BY 2

CINCINNATI (-14) Cleveland (40) 12:00 PM
A bad defense made Brady Quinn look like a pro-bowler for the Browns last week but the task
is much tougher this week. Cleveland still found a way to lose despite its best offensive
production of the season and this will be one of the last really meaningful games in a lost
season. In the first meeting of the season Cleveland lost 23-20 on what many felt was an
incorrectly called game-winning field goal. This should bring serious motivation to the Browns
and Cincinnati is not a team that has blown out opponents, with just one exception this year.
The Bengals are 7-3 S/U but actually are 0-4 ATS in the four games they have been favored
in, including all three S/U losses coming when laying points. The Bengals could bounce back
this week with a dominant performance but without a reliable running game Cincinnati will
have a hard time posting a big number. BENGALS BY 10

MINNESOTA (NL) Chicago 3:15 PM
The Bears had every opportunity imaginable to win last week but still found a way to lose. QB
Jay Cutler appears to have limited confidence and his teammates should have limited
confidence in him given how incredibly poorly he has played. The confined elements of the
dome could help but Minnesota looks like the most complete team in the league, playing
perhaps its best game last week. The Vikings will be a bit overvalued in the first game of a
division rivalry but with losses S/U and ATS five of the last six weeks the Bears appear to be
toast and face a tough fundamental match-up. VIKINGS BY 14

PHILADELPHIA (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
After back-to-back losses the Eagles are back in the win column and back in the playoff race.
Philadelphia didn’t deserve to win last week but the Eagles got the job done even with a lot of
mistakes. Washington has emerged as viable threat as late-season play-on team with strong
showings on defense in recent weeks. Despite just three S/U wins, this can be a team that
plays well down the stretch, particularly ATS. The Eagles will be overvalued in this game and
the first meeting between these teams was a tight 27-17 win in Washington. EAGLES BY 4

Miami (-3) BUFFALO 12:00 PM
The Dolphins have won gone 5-2 in the last seven games to climb back to .500 but this will be
the most favorable remaining spot on the schedule. The passing game has improved with
Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the Bills but Buffalo has proven incapable of holding a lead late in a
game. Miami has had some extra-time to prepare for this game and the Dolphins pummeled
the Bills the first time around, winning 38-10. Miami faces a second straight road games and
the Bills have historically been a solid home underdog but this is not a team to trust unless the
spread is much larger. DOLPHINS BY 10

Arizona (NL) TENNESSEE 3:15 PM
The Cardinals keep winning on the road and despite a slow start Arizona is in command of the
NFC West and appears on track to make the playoffs again. Tennessee faces a short week
but the Titans have some momentum with improved recent play as the schedule has softened.
Tennessee has the vastly superior running game and there will be value on the Titans
considering what this line would have been when the season started, and Tennessee is
starting to resemble the team most thought they could be. Arizona has still been a bit
inconsistent and playing a second straight road game with long travel could be a problematic
situation for a Cardinals team that is getting too much praise. TITANS BY 4

Seattle (-1) ST. LOUIS (43) 12:00 PM
The Seahawks were crushed in Minnesota last week but they have covered in five straight in
this series. The Rams have now covered in three consecutive games and St. Louis makes for
a promising team the rest of the season as the running game is starting to blossom. St. Louis
has just one win but the last two home games have featured competitive efforts against high
quality opponents. Seattle is 0-5 S/U and ATS on the road this season and the 28-0 opening
week win for the Seahawks against the Rams seems like ages ago for one of the most
disappointing teams in the league. RAMS BY 4

ATLANTA (-11½) Tampa Bay (46) 12:00 PM
The Bucs could not keep the run of strong play going last week as the Saints pulled away for
a convincing win. The schedule is going to get tougher for the Bucs as four of the next five
games are on the road. This is the first of two late season meetings between these division
rivals and Tampa Bay has had some recent success in this series. Atlanta’s defense was a
great disappointment last week but this remains a viable team that can get back on track.
Atlanta has won and covered in every home game and through a tough road-heavy schedule
the Falcons are still in the mix for the playoffs. Tampa Bay played well in two favorable spots
but this is a team that could still go 1-15. FALCONS BY 14

NY JETS (-3) Carolina (41½) 12:00 PM
Two of the top running teams in the NFL face off in this match-up and both teams are in a dire
position with six losses through ten games. The loser of this game is certainly eliminated from
playoff contention and the Jets are a tough team to trust as a favorite at home, with three
straight misses in that role. Carolina used to be a very impressive road underdog although the
recent results have fizzled and this game should be decided by which QB makes fewer
mistakes as both teams have been burned by turnovers in recent losses. The Jets are just 2-7
ATS in the last nine as favorites and Carolina has been playing better. PANTHERS BY 3

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) Jacksonville (41½) 3:05 PM
The 49ers failed last week although late scoring made the result look respectable but this is a
team that has fallen apart defensively despite a promising start to the year. Jacksonville has
been a lousy ATS team but at 6-4 S/U the Jaguars would be the first wild card team in the
AFC. The Jaguars have few impressive wins but they have now won six of the last eight and
the schedule ahead should present a few more opportunities. Jacksonville has been a
competitive underdog but the Jaguars have feasted on some of the worst teams in the league
while needing somewhat miraculous finishes to pull out the wins. San Francisco has played a
very tough schedule in recent weeks and this should be a favorable set-up at home where the
49ers have won and covered three times this season. 49ERS BY 7

SAN DIEGO (-13½) Kansas City (45) 3:05 PM
The Chiefs started the season 0-5 but have now won two straight and this could be a play-on
team down the stretch. San Diego presents a tough challenge as the Chargers are playing
well and defeated Kansas City 37-7 the first time these teams met. Three straight home
games against marginal competition follow this game so the best opportunities will be ahead
for the Chiefs. Kansas City enters this game off a huge upset of Pittsburgh but the Chargers
are a bit overvalued following wins over teams that simply are not as good as most expected.
The Giants, Eagles, and Broncos have all been exposed as flawed teams and San Diego is 0-
2 as double-digit favorites this season. While Kansas City could be in a letdown situation off a
big upset, the Chargers enter this game off a critical division win that propels them to the top
of the division. CHARGERS BY 10

Pittsburgh (NL) BALTIMORE 7:20 PM
These teams met in last season’s AFC championship game but both are in danger of missing
the playoffs altogether this season. If Baltimore loses they are essentially out of the race while
a Pittsburgh loss would create a tie between these teams with another head-to-head game
still waiting. The health of the Pittsburgh QBs will be a key component in this line but
Pittsburgh has proven successful in this series and the Steelers can buck the home/road
trends for these teams. STEELERS BY 6

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2009

NEW ORLEANS (-3) New England (55½) 7:35 PM
The Saints are 10-0 but this will be by far the toughest test and the Patriots bounced back
nicely from their national TV loss. The Saints have just two wins against winning teams and
New Orleans has failed ATS in three of the last four games, including the last two home
games. New England has not won a road game this season which should be a concern but
the indoor track at the Superdome should be favorable for the New England offense. Backing
the dog makes sense as New England is still the NFL’s team to beat. PATRIOTS BY 3

POWER SWEEP

4* BYU over Utah - The dog is 12-4 ATS and 10 of the L/12 have been decided by a TD or less.
In LY’s #16 vs #8 meeting QB Hall threw a career high 5 int’s incl 3 in the 4Q leading to 14 Utah pts.
In both ‘06 and ‘07 BYU needed key late 4th down conv to rally for close wins but LY Utah at home
rolled 48-24 (-7). Utah is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in the “Holy War”. The Cougs are off a 38-21 win over AF,
delivering a 3* LPS Winner. BYU fi nished with 26-18 FD and 498-300 yd edges in a game where
RB Unga became BYU’s all-time leading rusher and QB Hall broke Ty Detmer and John Beck records.
The inspired D held AF to just 212 yds rush (3.8) which was their lowest vs a non-service academy
TY. Utah showed no hangover from the TCU loss putting up 38 1H pts vs SDSt and coasting to a 38-7
win. The Utes fi nished with 22-16 FD and 391-262 yd edges. Since taking over as the starter, true
frosh Wynn is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 4-2 ratio. This is a game circled on both teams calendars
annually but BYU is 12-8 (incl 1-0 vs Utah) as a HF S/’06 and gets revenge for LY’s beating.
FORECAST: BYU 37 Utah 20

3* Arizona over ARIZONA ST - Arizona enters the “Territorial Cup” in a strange situation knowing
that they have a regular ssn game following ASU for the 1st time S/’86. Their Rose Bowl aspirations
offi cially ended LW, however, as they dropped a heartbreaker in 2OT vs Oregon, a game that they led
by 10 pts early 4Q. The Sun Devils’ bowl hopes ended altogether LW vs UCLA although their stellar
def did not allow an off TD (Bruins 2 TD returns on ASU TO’s, just 292 yds for the game). In LY’s meeting
in Tucson, ASU needed a win to become bowl eligible but ran into a buzzsaw being outgained
389-162 in the 30-10 defeat (+10’). The road team is 13-4 ATS (9-8 SU) but ASU is 5-2 SU (3-5 ATS)
in this instate rivalry and the HT is 5-1 SU. The last 2 games (‘05 and ‘07) in Tempe have both been
decided by only a FG and while it’s interesting to note that both ASU (+12 ypg) and AZ (+84 ypg) have
outgained P10 opponents despite the discrepancy in their conf records TY. The Cats have proven to
be as solid as it comes in the conf TY while ASU is experimenting with their QB’s right now starting
3 different at the position in the L/3W (QB Szakacsy had 5 ttl TO’s vs UCLA). Expect a big rebound
performance after last week’s loss. FORECAST: Arizona 24 ARIZONA ST 14

3* Troy over LOUISIANA - A loaded Troy team playing an injury plagued ULL squad creates an
overwhelming situation for the Cajuns. Troy is going for a perfect 8-0 SBC mark after already clinching
the SBC’s automatic bowl berth. LW Troy continued its steam rolling of the SBC with a 47-21 win at
FAU. TU QB Levi Brown is avg 359 ypg (68%) with a 15-1 ratio in SBC play and shredded FAU for
477 yds. ULL’s comeback win LW over rival ULM was its sixth TY, creating an opportunity to play for
an at-large bowl berth. ULL has had a challenge in replacing Sails (inj) at RB, and has been outscored
79-30 in the 2H in its L/5 games. ULL did get TE Green back LW, but with a limited run game
its one-dimensional offense is facing a huge challenge against the league’s top pressure defense.
This contest may be labeled by some as just a warm up for Troy’s bowl game but the Trojans, under
19th year HC Blakeney, are too smart to fall into that trap. It’s business as usual for the Trojans and a
comfortable win. FORECAST: Troy 37 LOUISIANA 20

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* † Texas Tech over Baylor (Arlington) - BU HG played at Cowboy Stadium. TT has won 13 in a
row SU (8-2 ATS) with their avg win by 28 ppg. The Bears were outgained by 231 yds LW vs A&M ending
their bowl hopes. QB Florence is avg 198 ypg (62%) with a 6-9 ratio. TT handed OU its worst loss of the
ssn LW (239 yd edge) as Leach is now the winningest HC in TT history. QB Potts is avg 280 ypg (66%)
with an 18-11 ratio and played every snap LW most likely ending the Red Raiders QB carousel. TT is
ranked #28 in our pass eff def allowing 223 ypg (61%) with a 10-7 ratio while BU comes in at #53 (223
ypg, 62%, 14-9). BU runs the same style of off as TT but the Red Raiders do it better (470 ypg to 343
ypg) and TT has the def edge (#24-36). BU is not going bowling for a 15th straight yr and TT is coming off
its best performance under Leach and LY’s late season collapse ensures they keep focused in this one.
FORECAST: Texas Tech 45 Baylor 17

2* Rutgers over LOUISVILLE - Rutgers is 6-2 SU in the series and their 671 yds LY were the most
ever by a Schiano tm and the 63 pts were the most Rutgers has ever scored in a BE game. Rutgers
won 63-14 (-10’) at home vs a UL team with a banged up secondary. UL had been favored in the other
3 recent meetings but the HT is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. RU is 5-1 ATS on the BE road. For the 3rd straight
year RU trailed 14-0 to Syracuse but was unable to mount a comeback as the Knights were stunned
LW losing 31-13 to Syracuse (YES to Syr!!). RU played uncharacteristically sloppy on offense, defense
and was outcoached. RU entered the gm as #1 def in BE but all’d 424 to the #106 Syr off and the RU
off was held to 130 ttl yds!! Fr QB Savage is avg 160 ypg (54%) with a 10-4 ratio and RB Martinek (78
ypg, 5.0) will be more involved in the gm plan. L’Ville is off a 34-24 loss to USF all’g a ssn high 538 yds
to the same Bulls tm RU spanked. UL was fortunate early and often or the gm would have been out of
hand. This is UL’s fi nale but RU has slight off edge with big ST’s (#30-77) and def edges (#42-72). Last
week’s results give us good value here and the Knights rebound to fi nish the season strong.
FORECAST: Rutgers 27 LOUISVILLE 13

2* † Kansas (+) over Missouri (Kansas City) - Third straight at Arrowhead. The winner in the Border
Showdown has won by DD’s in 12 of their L/16 meetings. Dog is 10-4 ATS. KU lost its 6th gm in a
row LW after a 5-0 (ranked #17) start. The Jayhawks have also dropped 8 straight ATS. QB Reesing
is avg 283 ypg (63%) with an 18-9 ratio but over the L5W just 228 ypg (57%) 3-5. Mizzou beat ISU LW
(203 yd edge) securing a bowl invite. QB Gabbert is avg 273 ypg (60%) with a 22-7 ratio. KU is ranked
#47 in our pass eff def allowing 240 ypg (62%) with a 16-7 ratio while Mizzou comes in at #86 (240
ypg, 64%, 15-7). KU is just 7-21 SU and 5-23 ATS in Nov road/neutral gms and Mizzou is 4-1 SU/ATS
away from Columbia TY. KU does have some off-fi eld distractions but needs a win to become bowl
eligible and while we’ve played against KU many times as a Key Selection, the value and situation is
now clearly with them. FORECAST: Kansas (+) 28 Missouri 27

OTHER GAMES

Texas at TEXAS A&M - HT in this instate rivalry is 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in B12
matchups. LY on Thanksgiving, UT held A&M to -24 yds rushing, posting the largest margin of victory in
the series since 1898. Last time here the Aggies led wire to wire and fi nished with a 533-357 yd edge.
UT is traveling on a short week and has the B12 Title gm on deck. A&M became bowl eligible LW but
is just 3-7 ATS in conf gms. Get this game as part of your Thanksgiving Executive Club Weekend
Package. Thanksgiving Executive Club Members will get opinions on all 4 sides and all 4 totals
Thanksgiving Day! These plays are released Wednesday at 3:00 pm ET. See pg 8 for details!

Pittsburgh 26 W VIRGINIA 23 - This year will be the 102nd meeting of “The Backyard
Brawl” (every yr since ‘43). Pitt spoiled #2 WV’s National Title hopes here in ‘07, which has been called the
biggest upset in Pitt and, arguably, BE history (+29, 13-9). LY Pitt trailed 15-7 in the 4Q and scored twice,
incl a 1 yd TD run with :52 left. WV is 4-2 vs ranked teams as a HD with 3 outright upsets incl #16 Pitt in ‘03.
WV gave #5 Cincy a scare up 14-7 before losing 24-21. Both QB Brown and RB Devine were playing thru
ankle injuries. Brown is avg 185 ypg (65%) with a 12-8 ratio and RB Devine avg 110 rush ypg (5.7, 51 ypg
3.6, L/3). The D is all’g 121 rush ypg (3.1) but 209 rush ypg (5.7) the L/2 to UL and Cincy. Pitt has their BE
showdown on deck (Cin) and are off a bye after a 27-22 win over ND 2W ago. Pitt led 27-9 with 12:44 left
and forced a fumble to seal the victory. QB Stull is avg’g 212 ypg (66%) with an 18-4 ratio and RB Lewis avg
129 rush ypg (5.8). The Panther D leads the NCAA with 41 sks and is all’g 101 rush ypg (3.1) incl 129 vs
Navy, 106 Conn, 38 Rut, and 66 ND. Pitt has the off (#23-46) and def (#19-27) edges while the ST’s edge
goes to WV (#39-66). It is tough to play at night in Morgantown but oddly WV is 1-5 ATS at home TY. Pitt is
6-1 ATS on the road in BE play S/’07 and win their 3rd straight vs WV for the 1st time since ‘80-’82.

AKRON 31 E Michigan 17 - An amazing fi nish LY as the Eagles took the lead w/3:49 left and blocked
a 26 yd FG with :30 left. UA’s holder caught it and ran for a FD and they got a TD run 2 plays later (:14
left). The HT is 7-1 SU and the dog is 5-2 ATS. This is EM’s 4th road game in 5 weeks. EM has led just
once since blowing a lead vs Ball St on Oct 24th and have been outscored by an avg of 49-17 in their
L/4 gms with their closest game being a 21 pt loss to WM. Akron has led in each of their L/7 gms (incl
four 4Q leads) but have faded due to a lack of depth from injuries. Akron has the off (#108-118) and
def (#103-118) edges. Against 4 common opp EM is 0-4 SU/ATS being outscored by an avg 40-8 and
outgained 443-244. Akron is 1-3 SU/ATS being outscored 38-19 and outgained 420-277. EM fi nishes
the season as one of only 2 FBS teams (WKU) winless.

KENT ST 23 Buffalo 20 - LY KS caught UB looking ahead to the MAC Title gm, snapping a 3 gm series
losing streak. Kent St led 24-21 and Buffalo had a 1&gl at the 6 but w/1:46 left they fumbled into the EZ.
Buf is 5-2 ATS. LY’s MAC Champ Buffalo broke a 3 gm losing streak vs 1 win Miami team last Wed and
after being the div fav at the start of the yr will fi nish with their 10th losing ssn the L11Y. Buf has the off
edge (#70-107) while KS has a small def edge (#77-91) and a large ST edge (#34-118) which has been
KS strength and UB’s weakness this year. UB QB Maynard is avg 229 ypg (59%) with an 18-13 ratio and
the Bulls have 5 players with 250+ yds rushing led by RB Nduka with 598 (6.2). KS’s QB Keith avg’d 215
ypg (57%) with a 14-11 ratio but only played 1 2H series LW and is OFY with a shoulder inj. RB Terry leads
with 633 (4.8) the #2 rusher has just 180 yds. Two weeks ago KS controlled their own destiny in the MAC
East race, but after 2 straight losses, needs to win here to fi nish 6-6 and will do it without QB Keith.

COLORADO ST 26 Wyoming 20 - 101st edition of the “Border War”. LY in Joe Glenn’s FHG, WY was
in control in the 1H with a 231-103 yd edge but CSU got a 51 yd TD pass with :10 left and then took
the momentum into the 2H and won 31-20 (+2) on the road. WY was tied at 10 LW in the 2Q but TCU
broke out with 35 unanswered pts, turning it into a 45-10 route. WY was held to 52 ttl yds in the 2H.
HC Christensen replaced QB Carta-Samuels (4-10-83) with his predecessor Benjamin, but he fi nished
with just 11 pass yds. The Rams are off a last-minute road loss to previously winless NM. Despite being
outgained 467-370, CSU traded scores with NM, going up 27-23 early 4Q. NM drove 46/6pl for a 37 yd
FG then, after a 27 yd punt, NM went 35/8pl and hit a 27 yd FG with :12 left. CSU tried to lateral on the
ensuing KO but it was stopped after a 15 yd gain. QB Stucker was inj’d late 1H (CS) and bkup Eastman
threw for 145 yds but did toss an int in the EZ. CSU is a disappointed team that wants to play the role of
spoiler here vs a Cowboy team which needs to win here to go to a bowl for the fi rst time since 2004.

OHIO 23 Temple 20 - This is the MAC East Championship game with the winner playing CM next week
in the MAC Champ game. This is just the 3rd meeting (HT is 2-0). The Bobcats have held the Owls to 209
yds in ‘07 and 143 LY (both ssn low for opp’s). Ohio is 6-14 SU in home fi nales. LY Ohio led 10-0 in the 4Q
(191-61 yd edge after 3Q) but a late fumble inside their own 20 set up TU for the comeback 14-10 win. Ohio
had a bye two wks ago, while Temple is playing an 11th st week and their 4th road gm in 6 wks. Temple, in
QB Stewart’s 3 starts, is avg 46 ppg after only avg 26 ppg under QB Charlton. They beat KS 47-13 LW but
both had 19 FD’s and TU only had a 399-320 yd edge but scored TD’s on a PR and an int, exploding for
38 2H pts (trailed 10-9 at half). Ohio beat NI 38-31 and also scored on a PR and an int but were outgained
421-247. Temple has the off (#84-103) and def (#59-74) edges but Ohio has the ST (#15-55) edge. TU’s
offense is led by RB Pierce(1308, 5.8) but he was inj LW and is expected to miss this (bkup Brown had 156
LW). Ohio is allowing 143.7 ypg rush (3.8) but did limit the MAC’s #1 rush off (NI) to 114 (3.2).

Alabama 30 AUBURN 20 - LY Bama (-14’) outgained Aub 412-170 in a 36-0 win ending a 6 game
losing streak in the Iron Bowl. It was the most lopsided Iron Bowl since ‘62 (38-0) Aub lost 3 fumbles
and Tuberville resigned following the loss. The visitor is 9-5 ATS in the Iron Bowl. Over the L/8Y (incl
6 wins) AU has been outgained by Bama by 268 total yds. The HD is 1-3 ATS in this rivalry. Aub had
the benefi t of a bye LW, but Bama is off an easy 45-0 win over FCS Chattanooga in which super RB
Ingram (1399, 6.8) rushed for 102 yds and 2 TD in little more than 1Q and rested along with many of
the other starters as AL led 35-0 at the half. Aub RB Tate has 1,209 yds (5.4) in a battle of 2 of the best
RB’s in the SEC. AL’s #3 D is only allowing 70.4 rush ypg (2.4) while Aub’s #44 D is allowing 170 rush
ypg (4.4). Aub is particularly thin at LB and DB which has caused problems late in gms. Bama has the
SEC Title gm on deck but covered LY in the same situation. The only time Aub has been a HD TY, they
upset Ole Miss 33-20 (+5’), but Bama is on a 6-0 streak as an AF. Bama might be in lookahead mode,
so the Tigers should keep it relatively close.

TULSA 38 Memphis 24 - Tulsa is 2-0 SU/ATS in CUSA play winning by a 36-22 avg. UM has won 5
straight regular season fi nales, incl road wins at USF and UTEP. This is the Tigers’ 3rd road game in 4
weeks and they are winless on the road TY (0-5 SU/ATS), losing by an avg score of 42-17. The Tigers
have not shown up the past 2 weeks after HC Tommy West was fi red. They have been outscored 86-35
and outgained by 198 ypg in those 2, incl last week’s 55-14 blowout loss at Houston. The UM defense
is ranked #115 allowing 461 ypg. Tulsa is also ending a disappointing season. The Hurricane had their
hopes for a 5th straight bowl dashed LW in a 44-34 loss at SMiss. They have lost 6 in a row SU (2-4 ATS)
for the 1st time since 2002. TU’s offense hasn’t been the same without OC Malzahn, who left for Aub after
last season. This year they are ranked #40 in NCAA avg 410 ypg after leading the NCAA LY (570 ypg).
WR/RS Damaris Johnson has been a bright spot for the Hurricane as he comes in #1 in the NCAA avg
229 all-purpose ypg. TU is 9-3 ATS in home fi nales and HC Graham wants to send his Sr’s out on a high
note, while also setting the tone for next season, so we expect the Hurricane to get the win.

CINCINNATI 37 Illinois 20 - 1st meeting. Cincy is 17-0 SU (5-2-1 ATS L4Y) hosting non-conf foes and
IL is 1-5 SU/ATS vs non-conf BCS. Zook used the bye as quazi-bowl practices, but did say that they won’t
play for 2010 by stacking the lineup with younger players the L/2. QB Williams (DNP vs NW) will start and
looks to become the 1st Illini with 10,000 total yds. IL is #72 in pass eff D (240, 60%, 11-4 ratio) with only
1 NCAA team (UNLV-3) having fewer int. Cincy has a huge game vs Pitt on deck and a win there would
give them a 2nd straight Big East champ/BCS bowl. The Bearcats spent the bye working on the run game
on both sides. UC avg 189 ypg (5.6) under the more mobile QB Collaros (332 rush yd) vs 147 ypg (5.2)
with better passer Pike (236, 64%, 17-3) who is expected to get the call here. UC is allowing 133 rush
ypg (3.5) including 202 (4.8) L/2 vs UConn and WV (spread like IL). UC has big edges on off (#10-53)
and ST (#28-107). IL is 8-1 ATS as an AD with 4 outright upsets including #1 OSU in ‘07 while UC is 2-5
ATS as a HF vs BCS tms L/2Y with lookahead being the biggest factor for the Bearcats.

BOWLING GREEN 34 Toledo 31 - These instate and arch rivals are just 26 miles apart. The home team
is 9-2 SU and they have avg’d 65 ppg the L9Y. LY’s BG win was the largest MOV in the series S/‘01 as
UT was held to -6 yds in the 1H and was outgained 534-196 in UT HC Amstutz and BG HC Brandon’s
fi nal gms. Toledo has been a dog 6 st yrs with 3 outright upsets. UT is 1-4 SU here and lost their last
trip 37-10 (+7) in ‘07. Toledo’s off and def coord both come from BG so they have added knowledge of
the personnel. Toledo needs this to become bowl eligible while BG needs it for a winning season. While
the off are close (T#51-76), BG has the def edge (#74-111) as they have improved since the return of
S PJ Mahone (susp 6 gms). However, BG has allowed 198.3 ypg rushing (5.5) and Toledo is avg 142.9
ypg (4.5) led by RB Collins with 773 (5.5). While Toledo has been troubled lately by QB injuries, BG’s
QB Sheehan is avg 319 ypg (64%) with a 19-6 ratio. His top target is WR Barnes who leads the NCAA
with 129 rec (11.7). The Rockets keep pace with BG’s high powered offense.

C MICHIGAN 31 N Illinois 21 - The Huskies had beaten the Chippewas 9 straight prior to B2B losses.
LY CM led 30-6 mid 3Q but NI recovered 2 onside kicks and scored 24 unanswered pts to force OT where
CM won 33-30. While NI is on a 2nd straight road game and traveling on a short week, CM has not played
since last Wed and is in their home fi nale and won their last game here vs NI, 35-10. With NI’s loss to Ohio,
CM is the MAC West Champ and has the MAC Championship on deck. The Huskies are 7-4 and look to be
the MAC’s #4 for a bowl (only 3 bowl tie-ins), so the Huskies do not want to back into one after two straight
losses. NI had 20-15 FD and 421-247 yd edges over Ohio but gave up a PR and an int for TD’s. Against
5 common opp CM was 5-0 SU/ATS and outscored them by an avg 46-17 and outgained them by an avg
496-306. NIll was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS outscored them by an avg 32-12 and outgained them by an avg
362-265. CM has off (#43-89) and def (#50-65) edges but NIll has the ST edge (#25-61).

BOISE ST 44 Nevada 30 - BSU is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with an avg MOV of 31 ppg.
BSU is 14-7 ATS under Petersen as a HF and UN is 6-12 as an AD under Ault. The
L/2 gms have been decided by one score (2 and 7 pts) after the prev 7 were decided
by 38.5 ppg (closest game being a 31 pt decision). These two are the lone unbeatens
in the WAC. Last time here (‘07), these two comb for 1,266 yds and 136 pts in 4 OT’s
in a 69-67 BSU victory (-26’) which set the record for most pts in an NCAA IA game
S/’37 when offi cial record keeping began. Since Oct, UN has rushed for 3,565 yds
(446 ypg) with 43 TD while racking up 4,785 ttl yds (598 ypg) and LW became the
1st tm in NCAA history to have 3 players top 1,000 yds rush in 1 ssn (Taua 1185 yds,
8.0; Kaepernick 1129, 8.6; Lippincott 1028, 7.7)! On the fl ip side, BSU is #1 in the
WAC in scoring def (17.3 ppg), ttl D (302 ypg) and pass def (187 ypg). The Broncos
are also #9 in the NCAA in ttl off (449 ypg) and lead the WAC in scoring off (44.4
ppg) led by the NCAA’s most eff passer QB Moore who is avg 253 ypg (66%) with a
33-3 ratio. He’s thrown at least 3 TD passes in 6 of his L/7 and will look to exploit UN’s
#119 NCAA rated pass D (286 ypg) with WR’s Pettis (62 rec, 13.7) and Young (60 rec,
13.5). This is UN’s season fi nale and the Pack is playing its 3rd AG in 4 wks while this
is the Broncos’ fi nal “true” hurdle in keeping its BCS hopes alive with NMSt on deck.

Virginia Tech 23 VIRGINIA 13 - Groh is 14-11 SU (0-3 TY) and 16-7
ATS (1-2 TY) as a home dog. VT is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the series but the HT is
5-2 ATS. Last year VT allowed only 249 yds but needed an int in the EZ with 2:15 left
to secure the win. VA had the dazzling debut of CB Vic Hall at QB. Hall ran for 109
yards and 2 long TD’s as a surprise starter. VT has won in their last two trips here
(both as AF) by an avg of 42-17. UVA is ranked #118 in the NCAA in total off and are
being outscored 25-16 vs ACC foes and now face our #12 defense. QB Sewell is avg
173 ypg pass (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. VT is 9-2 as an ACC AF. QB Taylor is avg 174
ypg pass (56%) with a 13-3 ratio and has rushed for 310 yds (3.3). RB Williams is #1
in the ACC with 1,355 rush yds (5.6). With a win here and in their bowl game, VT will
have its 6th straight 10-win season while UVA HC Groh could be coaching in his last
game as the Cavs will likely fi nish the season 3-9.

CONNECTICUT 34 Syracuse 17 - The HT is 4-1 SU/ATS and the fav is 5-0 ATS.
Edsall played and coached at Syr from ‘76-‘90. UC won on the road LY 39-14 with a
329-147 yd edge. UC has won their two HG’s by an avg of 28-7 in the series. Marrone
is off his 1st BE win, a 31-13 upset of Rutgers. QB’s Nassib and Paulus combined 17-
22 for 211 yds as Syr rolled up 424 yds offense. LB Hogue (LY RB) tallied a school rec
7 tfl as the D held RU to 130 yds and totaled 9 sks. RB Carter was inj late (CS). Conn
is off a thrilling 33-30 2OT upset over Notre Dame. Dixon and Todman again rushed
for over 100 yds (3rd time) and Todman had a KR TD. Conn had opportunities to put it
away before the end of reg but settled for fi eld position with :42 and 2 TO, and missed
a 37 yd FG. Afterward Edsall dedicated the game to the late Jasper Howard and his
family. UC has the off edge (#47-94) and likes to grind it out behind their big physical
OL (174 rush ypg, 4.3) and now faces Syr #47 def all’g 92 ypg (2.8) rush. With little to
no depth it is unknown how Syr will respond with a hangover after their big win. Conn
(8-1-1 ATS TY) is in perfect position to gain bowl eligibility here at home.

DUKE 27 Wake Forest 23 - In their last visit here, WF led by 25 but Duke rallied back
and WF barely pulled out the 41-36 win. LY in a hard fought ACC battle that went back
and forth the entire gm, WF needed a 28 yd FG in OT to pull out the 33-30 win (Duke
miss 42 yd FG on fi nal pl reg). WF is 9-0 SU (but only 3-6 ATS) in this series and has
scored 41+ in all 4 wins in Durham. WF is off a bye while Duke is playing a 6th str wk.
WF is 0-5 as a conf AF L/3Y. WF is being outgained 395-318 ypg on the road TY. QB
Skinner is 3-0 vs Duke. On the yr, he avg 254 ypg (65%) with a 21-12 ratio. WF has the
edge on both sides of the ball (O#58-81, D#56-75). QB Lewis, who is a fi nalist for the
Unitas Awd, avg 268 ypg (61%) with a 17-7 ratio. While WF is coming off a bye they
have lost 5 str and are 4-7 on the yr and for the 1st time in 4 yrs they will not be going to
a bowl. This will be Duke’s home fi nale for 9 Sr incl QB Lewis who needs just 172 yds
to pass FSU’s Weinke for #2 all-time in ACC history and 322 to reach 10,000 yds. The
Blue Devils do have a shot at their 1st .500 season in 15 yrs with a win here.

SOUTH CAROLINA 21 Clemson 20 - In LY’s meeting, RB James Davis ran for 3
TD’s and CU defeated SC 31-14 giving the Tigers’ their 6th win in the L/7 vs its state
rival and Swinney was named the HC 2 days later. Clemson is 6-2 ATS and 10-2 SU
vs SC. LY SC QB Smelley went the whole gm and hit 22-47 for 212 but threw 4 int
which led to 3 TD’s for Clemson. SC has won just once (‘01) hosting Clemson S/‘89.
SC is 6-5 and bowl elig but have lost 4 of their L/5 SU. QB Garcia is avg 237 ypg pass
(57%) with a 14-8 ratio. SC rush offense has struggled TY and they are #97 in the
NCAA. Both tms have top 20 D’s (C #9-17) but CU has the offensive edge (#28-59)
and huge ST edge (#12-100). QB Parker is avg 189 ypg pass (56%) with an 18-9
ratio. Heisman candidate RB Spiller is avg 188 all-purp ypg (#3 NCAA). SC is coming
off a bye with nothing on deck and looking to move up in the bowl pecking order so
they don’t get stuck in the Indep Bowl while CU clinched the Atlantic Division Title
and has the ACC Champ game vs GT on deck.

NC STATE 24 N Carolina 23 - The underdog is 9-2 ATS with EIGHT OUTRIGHT
upsets in the series. These two are just 26 miles apart and the visitor is 6-3 ATS.
Wolfpack are 9-4 SU in home fi nales. NC has now lost B2B games in the series including
LY as #25 NC (7-4) was beaten soundly, committing 6 TO’s as NCSt defeated
the Tar Heels 41-10 with a 263 yd edge. QB Wilson is considering pursuing a pro
baseball career, which would likely make this his last game. On the season, he is avg
252 ypg pass (58%) with a 27-11 ratio. NCSt does have the offensive edge (#36-88),
but now faces our #8 D which has forced 10 TO’s and scored 4 TD’s the L/2. LW NC
D’s forced 6 TO which led to 24 Tar Heel pts. QB Yate is avg 152 ypg (60%) with a 10-
13 ratio. A 9-win ssn would be NC’s most S/’97 when the tm went 11-1 under Mack
Brown. NC is looking to move up for the league’s upper-tier bowls while NCSt would
love to spoil their rivals season on what could be Wilson’s fi nal game.
Tennessee 24 KENTUCKY 20 - Tenn has won 24 in a row in the nation’s longest series
win streak and UT has won 26 straight regular season fi nales (on 6-2 ATS run). LY
UT had a 311-193 yd edge including a 210-96 yd rush edge and won 28-10 in Fulmer’s
fi nal game and a 4* Top Weekly Late Phone Winner for us. The last time in Lexington
(‘07), UK lost 52-50 in 4 OT’s despite outgaining the Vols 564-520 with a 37-24 FD
edge. UK is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their fi nal home gm. UK is off a 31-24 upset of GA
in Athens. UK was outgained 487-260 but had a 4-0 TO advantage which led to 2 TD’s
in the 2H on 14 and 8 yd TD drives. Tenn clinched a bowl LW with their 31-16 win over
Vandy with the Vols holding a 422-297 yd edge, but UT DE Brown scored on an IR TD
with :03 left to make it a slightly misleading fi nal. UT RB Hardesty had 171 rush LW with
1,127 (5.0) on the ssn. QB Crompton is avg 241 ypg (62%) with a 16-3 ratio the L/6. UT
has edges on off (#27-50) and def (#23-46), but the Vols D has been banged up with
walk-ons forced to play 2nd string at several positions. Despite UK’s recent resurgence,
we will go with the Vols to get the win and improve their bowl standing.

Mississippi 31 MISS ST 17 - The home tm has won 5 in a row SU in the Egg Bowl,
and LY Ole Miss dominated as their D allowed the fewest yds in a 1A gm in ‘08 with a
461-24 yd edge (yes, 24 yds). UM is 7-2-1 ATS in the series and set a school record
with 11 sks LY holding MSU to -64 yds rush in LY’s 45-0 shutout (-18) and MSU
HC Croom resigned after the gm. Nutt is 10-1 SU vs Miss St with his only loss by
1 pt in ‘98. UM RB/WR McCluster has 903 rush yds (6.9) with 739 rush yds (7.9) in
the L/4 SEC gms. LW he threw a 27 yd TD pass out of the Wild Rebel pkg and had
148 rush yds in UM’s nail-biting 25-23 win over LSU. UM outgained LSU 426-290
holding LSU to 40 rush yds (1.5) but was lucky to escape with a win due to LSU
mismanaging the clock. MSU was eliminated from bowl contention in their 42-21
loss to Ark LW. MSU RB Dixon (1258, 5.5) rushed for 176 yds and 2 TD but lost a
rare fmbl at midfi eld in the 4Q which Ark turned into the gm sealing TD. UM’s D has
30 sks TY which puts pressure on MSU’s inconsistent QB Lee (127 ypg, 60%, with
a 4-13 ratio). MSU’s D has only 17 sks on the yr which means UM QB Snead (199
ypg, 54%, 17-14 ratio) should have time to throw and a solid win vs their rival should
secure a trip to the Capital One Bowl.

TCU 58 New Mexico 3 - The home team is 6-3-1 ATS. In the L/2Y vs TCU, QB
Porterie has been KO’d and TCU has won by a 63-3 margin with an avg yd edge of
356-152. In 4 MWC meetings, TCU has dominated winning by an avg of 35-13. After
opening last ssn vs NM (earliest conf opener ever), TCU and NM signed a contract
to play each other in season fi nales. The Frogs were slow out of the gate vs WY
LW. They all’d the Pokes to hang around until the 2Q before scoring 35 unanswered
points in a 45-10 win. TCU fi nished with a 523-178 yd edge but did have 4 TO’s. RB
Turner (688 yds, 5.3) was banged up early and Tucker (605, 6.5) fi nished with a career
high 134 on the ground. NM comes in fl ying high off their 1st win of the season.
After knocking 2 FG’s and a PAT off the upright 2W ago, Aho nailed 2 4Q FG’s incl the
game-winning 27 yd’r with :12 left. NM almost tripled their rush avg putting up 270
(7.7) incl 130 in the 4Q and fi nished with a 467-370 ttl yd edge. TCU is 18-6 as a HF
(1 ATS loss to IAA) and has won their L/4 home fi nales by an avg of 45-15. The Frogs
are playing for the outright MWC Title and a BCS berth and while NM has fi nally
found its confi dence, they will be quickly struck down by the high fl ying Frogs.

E CAROLINA 28 Southern Miss 27 - The winner will represent the East in the
CUSA Title game. SM is 11-2 SU and has won 7 in a row SU here in Greenville. In
LY’s 21-3 loss, EC was held to a season low 255 yds and their 3 pts were the fewest
scored under Holtz and fewest since ‘97. SMiss QB Davis and WR Brown hooked up
for a school-record 97 yd TD pass. The Eagles have won 4 of 5 SU (4-1 ATS) after
LW’s 44-34 win over Tulsa in their FHG. They have, however, won just once on the
road TY, although it did come 2 wks ago at Marshall. QB Young has played well in
place of inj’d starter Davis and is avg 219 ypg (62.3%) with a 12-1 ratio in his 6 sts.
The Eagles D has played better the L/2 weeks after allowing a season-high 750 yds
(559 pass) a few wks ago at Houston. EC has also won 4 of 5 SU (4-0-1 ATS), with
the only loss to VT. EC beat UAB 37-21 LW despite being outgained 520-325 as they
won the TO battle 2-0. The Pirates’ offense has really come on and is avg 42 ppg and
450 ypg their L/4 in conf play. The fav is 13-3 ATS when SMiss is on the road in CUSA
play. We think the teams are pretty even, but we give the Pirates the edge at home.

UAB 24 Ucf 23 - UCF is 5-1 all-time vs the Blazers and 3-1 in CUSA play. LY UCF
was shutout for the 1st time ever in CUSA play and for the 1st time at Bright House
in a 15-0 loss to UAB. It was UAB’s 1st shutout in CUSA play (10 ssns). This is just
the 2nd time in 13 yrs that UAB closes their season at home (1st S/’98). The Blazers
need a win to become bowl eligible and clinch their 1st non-losing season since 2004.
QB Webb is quietly having an outstanding Sr campaign and is, arguably, the MVP in
CUSA. He is #8 in NCAA in total off (297 ypg), the #1 rushing QB in NCAA (117 ypg,
6.2) and after a slow start has climbed to #12 in pass eff (149.8). Webb will have to be
at his best against the best front 7 in CUSA. The Knights allowed just 50 total yards
in LW’s 49-0 win over Tulane and are T-#1 in CUSA with 34 sks. UCF is looking to
improve their bowl position by getting to 8 wins. The offense is much improved under
Sr signal-caller Hodges. The Knights are avg 39 ppg and 441 ypg in their L/4 conf gms
but UAB needs a 6th win to have a shot at their fi rst bowl since ‘04.

UTEP 28 Marshall 27 - UTEP is just 4-15-1 SU in Sun Bowl fi nales. The HT is 2-0
in this brief series winning by an avg of 40-12. Marshall is off a 34-31 win over SMU.
The Herd was without leading receiver TE Slate (OFY-knee) and leading rusher
Darius Marshall (#13 in NCAA, 117 ypg), who may return here (check status). MU’s
defense has been outstanding since allowing 52 pts to VTech in week 2. They are allowing
just 19 ppg since that game and have held the L/3 opponents to 89 ypg on the
ground. They have been solid on the road TY (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS), but have traditionally
struggled away from home, as they entered this season 3-21 SU (6-17-1 ATS) on
the road under HC Snyder. Prevailing sentiment has Snyder out as coach, even if
the Herd goes bowling. LW, UTEP announced that HC Price would return for 2010,
despite 4 straight losing seasons. The Miners main objective to fi nish the season is
to get RB Buckram the NCAA rushing title. He is currently #2 avg 142 ypg (6.3) after
rushing for 147 yds (4.3) in LW’s 30-29 loss at Rice, in which the Miners had 6 TO’s
(5 fmbls). The Herd is 0-5 all-time in the state of Texas and now must make the long
trip to El Paso (over 1,600 miles), so we expect UTEP to come out ahead.

SMU 44 Tulane 20 - TU has won 7 of 8 vs the Mustangs and 5 straight in Dallas. LY
the Wave led 31-7 at HT, but SMU got within a score with 2:03 left, but they kicked deep
and TU was able to run out the clock 34-27 (-18’). Tulane has outgained SMU by 111
ypg in the L/7. Tulane is headed to their 3rd straight losing season under HC Toledo and
7th straight overall. This is the 3rd straight road game for the Wave and they are just
1-5 SU/ATS on the road. They were held to just 50 total yds LW in a 49-0 loss at UCF.
Although Tulane has struggled, you can’t overlook the season that WR Jeremy Williams
has put together. Williams leads TU with 79 rec (13.2) (#11 in NCAA) and is also the #2
rusher (160, 4.3) behind Sr Andre Anderson (911, 4.3). TU may have found its QB of
the future in Ryan Griffi n (PS#45). The rFr is avg 185 ypg (64%) with a 6-5 ratio in his 5
starts. The D has again been ravaged by inj’s and is all’g 41 ppg the L/6. SMU appears
headed to their 1st bowl since 1984, although they fell out of the CUSA West lead with
a 34-31 loss at Marshall LW as they were outgained 475-331. The Mustangs are 4-1 at
home TY, but just 2-2 ATS and have failed to cover in the L/2 at home. Tulane looked like
a team that may have packed it in LW, and even though SMU failed to cover as a DD
home fav 3 wks ago vs Rice (won 31-28, -17’), the Mustangs roll into the postseason.

OKLAHOMA 31 Oklahoma St 17 - Bedlam. Gundy was 0-4 vs OU as OSU’s starting
QB from 1986-‘89 (0-8 SU combined as QB/HC, 0-3-1 ATS as HC). LY OU was -7’ on the
road and needed an impressive win to get votes and into the B12 Title gm. Behind #3 QB
Weeden OSU came back from 11 pts down (2H) vs CU keeping a BCS bowl shot alive. QB
Robinson (192 ypg, 64%, 15-7 ratio and 302 rush yds 3.2) was held out (concussion) LW
but was dressed and most likely will play here. OU was embarrassed LW vs TT (outgained
549-310) playing its worst gm of the ssn. OU’s 5 losses are the most since Stoops’ 1st
ssn in ‘99 and he is 14-7 ATS after a SU loss. QB Jones is avg 232 ypg (58%) with a
23-13 ratio. OU is ranked #5 in our pass eff def allowing 198 ypg (55%) with an 11-15
ratio while OSU comes in #13 (244 ypg, 57%, 16-14). OU has won 29 straight (19-9-1
ATS) HG’s, are outgaining foes on avg 555-234 with a avg score 55-9 in Norman TY and
Stoops will have his squad focused vs its rival after LW’s wakeup call.

BOISE ST 44 Nevada 30 - BSU is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with an avg MOV of 31 ppg.
BSU is 14-7 ATS under Petersen as a HF and UN is 6-12 as an AD under Ault. The
L/2 gms have been decided by one score (2 and 7 pts) after the prev 7 were decided
by 38.5 ppg (closest game being a 31 pt decision). These two are the lone unbeatens
in the WAC. Last time here (‘07), these two comb for 1,266 yds and 136 pts in 4 OT’s
in a 69-67 BSU victory (-26’) which set the record for most pts in an NCAA IA game
S/’37 when offi cial record keeping began. Since Oct, UN has rushed for 3,565 yds
(446 ypg) with 43 TD while racking up 4,785 ttl yds (598 ypg) and LW became the
1st tm in NCAA history to have 3 players top 1,000 yds rush in 1 ssn (Taua 1185 yds,
8.0; Kaepernick 1129, 8.6; Lippincott 1028, 7.7)! On the fl ip side, BSU is #1 in the
WAC in scoring def (17.3 ppg), ttl D (302 ypg) and pass def (187 ypg). The Broncos
are also #9 in the NCAA in ttl off (449 ypg) and lead the WAC in scoring off (44.4
ppg) led by the NCAA’s most eff passer QB Moore who is avg 253 ypg (66%) with a
33-3 ratio. He’s thrown at least 3 TD passes in 6 of his L/7 and will look to exploit UN’s
#119 NCAA rated pass D (286 ypg) with WR’s Pettis (62 rec, 13.7) and Young (60 rec,
13.5). This is UN’s season fi nale and the Pack is playing its 3rd AG in 4 wks while this
is the Broncos’ fi nal “true” hurdle in keeping its BCS hopes alive with NMSt on deck.

Virginia Tech 23 VIRGINIA 13 - Groh is 14-11 SU (0-3 TY) and 16-7
ATS (1-2 TY) as a home dog. VT is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the series but the HT is
5-2 ATS. Last year VT allowed only 249 yds but needed an int in the EZ with 2:15 left
to secure the win. VA had the dazzling debut of CB Vic Hall at QB. Hall ran for 109
yards and 2 long TD’s as a surprise starter. VT has won in their last two trips here
(both as AF) by an avg of 42-17. UVA is ranked #118 in the NCAA in total off and are
being outscored 25-16 vs ACC foes and now face our #12 defense. QB Sewell is avg
173 ypg pass (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. VT is 9-2 as an ACC AF. QB Taylor is avg 174
ypg pass (56%) with a 13-3 ratio and has rushed for 310 yds (3.3). RB Williams is #1
in the ACC with 1,355 rush yds (5.6). With a win here and in their bowl game, VT will
have its 6th straight 10-win season while UVA HC Groh could be coaching in his last
game as the Cavs will likely fi nish the season 3-9.

CONNECTICUT 34 Syracuse 17 - The HT is 4-1 SU/ATS and the fav is 5-0 ATS.
Edsall played and coached at Syr from ‘76-‘90. UC won on the road LY 39-14 with a
329-147 yd edge. UC has won their two HG’s by an avg of 28-7 in the series. Marrone
is off his 1st BE win, a 31-13 upset of Rutgers. QB’s Nassib and Paulus combined 17-
22 for 211 yds as Syr rolled up 424 yds offense. LB Hogue (LY RB) tallied a school rec
7 tfl as the D held RU to 130 yds and totaled 9 sks. RB Carter was inj late (CS). Conn
is off a thrilling 33-30 2OT upset over Notre Dame. Dixon and Todman again rushed
for over 100 yds (3rd time) and Todman had a KR TD. Conn had opportunities to put it
away before the end of reg but settled for fi eld position with :42 and 2 TO, and missed
a 37 yd FG. Afterward Edsall dedicated the game to the late Jasper Howard and his
family. UC has the off edge (#47-94) and likes to grind it out behind their big physical
OL (174 rush ypg, 4.3) and now faces Syr #47 def all’g 92 ypg (2.8) rush. With little to
no depth it is unknown how Syr will respond with a hangover after their big win. Conn
(8-1-1 ATS TY) is in perfect position to gain bowl eligibility here at home.

DUKE 27 Wake Forest 23 - In their last visit here, WF led by 25 but Duke rallied back
and WF barely pulled out the 41-36 win. LY in a hard fought ACC battle that went back
and forth the entire gm, WF needed a 28 yd FG in OT to pull out the 33-30 win (Duke
miss 42 yd FG on fi nal pl reg). WF is 9-0 SU (but only 3-6 ATS) in this series and has
scored 41+ in all 4 wins in Durham. WF is off a bye while Duke is playing a 6th str wk.
WF is 0-5 as a conf AF L/3Y. WF is being outgained 395-318 ypg on the road TY. QB
Skinner is 3-0 vs Duke. On the yr, he avg 254 ypg (65%) with a 21-12 ratio. WF has the
edge on both sides of the ball (O#58-81, D#56-75). QB Lewis, who is a fi nalist for the
Unitas Awd, avg 268 ypg (61%) with a 17-7 ratio. While WF is coming off a bye they
have lost 5 str and are 4-7 on the yr and for the 1st time in 4 yrs they will not be going to
a bowl. This will be Duke’s home fi nale for 9 Sr incl QB Lewis who needs just 172 yds
to pass FSU’s Weinke for #2 all-time in ACC history and 322 to reach 10,000 yds. The
Blue Devils do have a shot at their 1st .500 season in 15 yrs with a win here.

SOUTH CAROLINA 21 Clemson 20 - In LY’s meeting, RB James Davis ran for 3
TD’s and CU defeated SC 31-14 giving the Tigers’ their 6th win in the L/7 vs its state
rival and Swinney was named the HC 2 days later. Clemson is 6-2 ATS and 10-2 SU
vs SC. LY SC QB Smelley went the whole gm and hit 22-47 for 212 but threw 4 int
which led to 3 TD’s for Clemson. SC has won just once (‘01) hosting Clemson S/‘89.
SC is 6-5 and bowl elig but have lost 4 of their L/5 SU. QB Garcia is avg 237 ypg pass
(57%) with a 14-8 ratio. SC rush offense has struggled TY and they are #97 in the
NCAA. Both tms have top 20 D’s (C #9-17) but CU has the offensive edge (#28-59)
and huge ST edge (#12-100). QB Parker is avg 189 ypg pass (56%) with an 18-9
ratio. Heisman candidate RB Spiller is avg 188 all-purp ypg (#3 NCAA). SC is coming
off a bye with nothing on deck and looking to move up in the bowl pecking order so
they don’t get stuck in the Indep Bowl while CU clinched the Atlantic Division Title
and has the ACC Champ game vs GT on deck.

NC STATE 24 N Carolina 23 - The underdog is 9-2 ATS with EIGHT OUTRIGHT
upsets in the series. These two are just 26 miles apart and the visitor is 6-3 ATS.
Wolfpack are 9-4 SU in home fi nales. NC has now lost B2B games in the series including
LY as #25 NC (7-4) was beaten soundly, committing 6 TO’s as NCSt defeated
the Tar Heels 41-10 with a 263 yd edge. QB Wilson is considering pursuing a pro
baseball career, which would likely make this his last game. On the season, he is avg
252 ypg pass (58%) with a 27-11 ratio. NCSt does have the offensive edge (#36-88),
but now faces our #8 D which has forced 10 TO’s and scored 4 TD’s the L/2. LW NC
D’s forced 6 TO which led to 24 Tar Heel pts. QB Yate is avg 152 ypg (60%) with a 10-
13 ratio. A 9-win ssn would be NC’s most S/’97 when the tm went 11-1 under Mack
Brown. NC is looking to move up for the league’s upper-tier bowls while NCSt would
love to spoil their rivals season on what could be Wilson’s fi nal game.

Tennessee 24 KENTUCKY 20 - Tenn has won 24 in a row in the nation’s longest series
win streak and UT has won 26 straight regular season fi nales (on 6-2 ATS run). LY
UT had a 311-193 yd edge including a 210-96 yd rush edge and won 28-10 in Fulmer’s
fi nal game and a 4* Top Weekly Late Phone Winner for us. The last time in Lexington
(‘07), UK lost 52-50 in 4 OT’s despite outgaining the Vols 564-520 with a 37-24 FD
edge. UK is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their fi nal home gm. UK is off a 31-24 upset of GA
in Athens. UK was outgained 487-260 but had a 4-0 TO advantage which led to 2 TD’s
in the 2H on 14 and 8 yd TD drives. Tenn clinched a bowl LW with their 31-16 win over
Vandy with the Vols holding a 422-297 yd edge, but UT DE Brown scored on an IR TD
with :03 left to make it a slightly misleading fi nal. UT RB Hardesty had 171 rush LW with
1,127 (5.0) on the ssn. QB Crompton is avg 241 ypg (62%) with a 16-3 ratio the L/6. UT
has edges on off (#27-50) and def (#23-46), but the Vols D has been banged up with
walk-ons forced to play 2nd string at several positions. Despite UK’s recent resurgence,
we will go with the Vols to get the win and improve their bowl standing.

Mississippi 31 MISS ST 17 - The home tm has won 5 in a row SU in the Egg Bowl,
and LY Ole Miss dominated as their D allowed the fewest yds in a 1A gm in ‘08 with a
461-24 yd edge (yes, 24 yds). UM is 7-2-1 ATS in the series and set a school record
with 11 sks LY holding MSU to -64 yds rush in LY’s 45-0 shutout (-18) and MSU
HC Croom resigned after the gm. Nutt is 10-1 SU vs Miss St with his only loss by
1 pt in ‘98. UM RB/WR McCluster has 903 rush yds (6.9) with 739 rush yds (7.9) in
the L/4 SEC gms. LW he threw a 27 yd TD pass out of the Wild Rebel pkg and had
148 rush yds in UM’s nail-biting 25-23 win over LSU. UM outgained LSU 426-290
holding LSU to 40 rush yds (1.5) but was lucky to escape with a win due to LSU
mismanaging the clock. MSU was eliminated from bowl contention in their 42-21
loss to Ark LW. MSU RB Dixon (1258, 5.5) rushed for 176 yds and 2 TD but lost a
rare fmbl at midfi eld in the 4Q which Ark turned into the gm sealing TD. UM’s D has
30 sks TY which puts pressure on MSU’s inconsistent QB Lee (127 ypg, 60%, with
a 4-13 ratio). MSU’s D has only 17 sks on the yr which means UM QB Snead (199
ypg, 54%, 17-14 ratio) should have time to throw and a solid win vs their rival should
secure a trip to the Capital One Bowl.

TCU 58 New Mexico 3 - The home team is 6-3-1 ATS. In the L/2Y vs TCU, QB
Porterie has been KO’d and TCU has won by a 63-3 margin with an avg yd edge of
356-152. In 4 MWC meetings, TCU has dominated winning by an avg of 35-13. After
opening last ssn vs NM (earliest conf opener ever), TCU and NM signed a contract
to play each other in season fi nales. The Frogs were slow out of the gate vs WY
LW. They all’d the Pokes to hang around until the 2Q before scoring 35 unanswered
points in a 45-10 win. TCU fi nished with a 523-178 yd edge but did have 4 TO’s. RB
Turner (688 yds, 5.3) was banged up early and Tucker (605, 6.5) fi nished with a career
high 134 on the ground. NM comes in fl ying high off their 1st win of the season.
After knocking 2 FG’s and a PAT off the upright 2W ago, Aho nailed 2 4Q FG’s incl the
game-winning 27 yd’r with :12 left. NM almost tripled their rush avg putting up 270
(7.7) incl 130 in the 4Q and fi nished with a 467-370 ttl yd edge. TCU is 18-6 as a HF
(1 ATS loss to IAA) and has won their L/4 home fi nales by an avg of 45-15. The Frogs
are playing for the outright MWC Title and a BCS berth and while NM has fi nally
found its confi dence, they will be quickly struck down by the high fl ying Frogs.

E CAROLINA 28 Southern Miss 27 - The winner will represent the East in the
CUSA Title game. SM is 11-2 SU and has won 7 in a row SU here in Greenville. In
LY’s 21-3 loss, EC was held to a season low 255 yds and their 3 pts were the fewest
scored under Holtz and fewest since ‘97. SMiss QB Davis and WR Brown hooked up
for a school-record 97 yd TD pass. The Eagles have won 4 of 5 SU (4-1 ATS) after
LW’s 44-34 win over Tulsa in their FHG. They have, however, won just once on the
road TY, although it did come 2 wks ago at Marshall. QB Young has played well in
place of inj’d starter Davis and is avg 219 ypg (62.3%) with a 12-1 ratio in his 6 sts.
The Eagles D has played better the L/2 weeks after allowing a season-high 750 yds
(559 pass) a few wks ago at Houston. EC has also won 4 of 5 SU (4-0-1 ATS), with
the only loss to VT. EC beat UAB 37-21 LW despite being outgained 520-325 as they
won the TO battle 2-0. The Pirates’ offense has really come on and is avg 42 ppg and
450 ypg their L/4 in conf play. The fav is 13-3 ATS when SMiss is on the road in CUSA
play. We think the teams are pretty even, but we give the Pirates the edge at home.

UAB 24 Ucf 23 - UCF is 5-1 all-time vs the Blazers and 3-1 in CUSA play. LY UCF
was shutout for the 1st time ever in CUSA play and for the 1st time at Bright House
in a 15-0 loss to UAB. It was UAB’s 1st shutout in CUSA play (10 ssns). This is just
the 2nd time in 13 yrs that UAB closes their season at home (1st S/’98). The Blazers
need a win to become bowl eligible and clinch their 1st non-losing season since 2004.
QB Webb is quietly having an outstanding Sr campaign and is, arguably, the MVP in
CUSA. He is #8 in NCAA in total off (297 ypg), the #1 rushing QB in NCAA (117 ypg,
6.2) and after a slow start has climbed to #12 in pass eff (149.8). Webb will have to be
at his best against the best front 7 in CUSA. The Knights allowed just 50 total yards
in LW’s 49-0 win over Tulane and are T-#1 in CUSA with 34 sks. UCF is looking to
improve their bowl position by getting to 8 wins. The offense is much improved under
Sr signal-caller Hodges. The Knights are avg 39 ppg and 441 ypg in their L/4 conf gms
but UAB needs a 6th win to have a shot at their fi rst bowl since ‘04.

UTEP 28 Marshall 27 - UTEP is just 4-15-1 SU in Sun Bowl fi nales. The HT is 2-0
in this brief series winning by an avg of 40-12. Marshall is off a 34-31 win over SMU.
The Herd was without leading receiver TE Slate (OFY-knee) and leading rusher
Darius Marshall (#13 in NCAA, 117 ypg), who may return here (check status). MU’s
defense has been outstanding since allowing 52 pts to VTech in week 2. They are allowing
just 19 ppg since that game and have held the L/3 opponents to 89 ypg on the
ground. They have been solid on the road TY (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS), but have traditionally
struggled away from home, as they entered this season 3-21 SU (6-17-1 ATS) on
the road under HC Snyder. Prevailing sentiment has Snyder out as coach, even if
the Herd goes bowling. LW, UTEP announced that HC Price would return for 2010,
despite 4 straight losing seasons. The Miners main objective to fi nish the season is
to get RB Buckram the NCAA rushing title. He is currently #2 avg 142 ypg (6.3) after
rushing for 147 yds (4.3) in LW’s 30-29 loss at Rice, in which the Miners had 6 TO’s
(5 fmbls). The Herd is 0-5 all-time in the state of Texas and now must make the long
trip to El Paso (over 1,600 miles), so we expect UTEP to come out ahead.

SMU 44 Tulane 20 - TU has won 7 of 8 vs the Mustangs and 5 straight in Dallas. LY
the Wave led 31-7 at HT, but SMU got within a score with 2:03 left, but they kicked deep
and TU was able to run out the clock 34-27 (-18’). Tulane has outgained SMU by 111
ypg in the L/7. Tulane is headed to their 3rd straight losing season under HC Toledo and
7th straight overall. This is the 3rd straight road game for the Wave and they are just
1-5 SU/ATS on the road. They were held to just 50 total yds LW in a 49-0 loss at UCF.
Although Tulane has struggled, you can’t overlook the season that WR Jeremy Williams
has put together. Williams leads TU with 79 rec (13.2) (#11 in NCAA) and is also the #2
rusher (160, 4.3) behind Sr Andre Anderson (911, 4.3). TU may have found its QB of
the future in Ryan Griffi n (PS#45). The rFr is avg 185 ypg (64%) with a 6-5 ratio in his 5
starts. The D has again been ravaged by inj’s and is all’g 41 ppg the L/6. SMU appears
headed to their 1st bowl since 1984, although they fell out of the CUSA West lead with
a 34-31 loss at Marshall LW as they were outgained 475-331. The Mustangs are 4-1 at
home TY, but just 2-2 ATS and have failed to cover in the L/2 at home. Tulane looked like
a team that may have packed it in LW, and even though SMU failed to cover as a DD
home fav 3 wks ago vs Rice (won 31-28, -17’), the Mustangs roll into the postseason.

OKLAHOMA 31 Oklahoma St 17 - Bedlam. Gundy was 0-4 vs OU as OSU’s starting
QB from 1986-‘89 (0-8 SU combined as QB/HC, 0-3-1 ATS as HC). LY OU was -7’ on the
road and needed an impressive win to get votes and into the B12 Title gm. Behind #3 QB
Weeden OSU came back from 11 pts down (2H) vs CU keeping a BCS bowl shot alive. QB
Robinson (192 ypg, 64%, 15-7 ratio and 302 rush yds 3.2) was held out (concussion) LW
but was dressed and most likely will play here. OU was embarrassed LW vs TT (outgained
549-310) playing its worst gm of the ssn. OU’s 5 losses are the most since Stoops’ 1st
ssn in ‘99 and he is 14-7 ATS after a SU loss. QB Jones is avg 232 ypg (58%) with a
23-13 ratio. OU is ranked #5 in our pass eff def allowing 198 ypg (55%) with an 11-15
ratio while OSU comes in #13 (244 ypg, 57%, 16-14). OU has won 29 straight (19-9-1
ATS) HG’s, are outgaining foes on avg 555-234 with a avg score 55-9 in Norman TY and
Stoops will have his squad focused vs its rival after LW’s wakeup call.

PRO SELECTIONS

KEY SELECTIONS

4* MINNESOTA over Chicago - Favre hasn’t faced the Bears since 2007 & is only 2-6 SU & 2-5-1
ATS vs them since Lovie Smith took over. MIN has a huge situational edge as they are in their 3rd
straight HG since coming off the bye while the Bears are on a very short turnaround after LW’s SNF
vs PHI combined with the holiday. CHI is 1-4 SU & ATS since the bye with the only win vs CLE as
while Cutler has avg’d 290 ypg (61%) he has a 6-12 ratio. While the Bears do have a franchise QB
in Cutler they don’t have the OL (18 sacks allowed 3.8 ypc) or WR’s to support him with. The Bears
#8 pass defense is misleading as teams have been able to run at will in their L4 games (156 ypg
4.7) while giving up a 10-4 ratio as well. MIN throttled SEA LW & had 27-4 FD & 388-111 yd edges
before losing interest after going up 35-3 holding them to just 4 yds rushing (0.3) overall. Favre is
fully comfortable in this offense now (248 ypg 70% 21-3) & MIN has outgained foes 416-280 the
L4W. Six of MIN’s 7 ATS wins have been by 12 or more points & look for them to hang another big
win as they continue to push NO for the #1 seed. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 31 Chicago 13

3* Carolina over NY JETS - CAR is in a good situation off 2 home games & travelling with 3 days
extra rest. The Jets come in off a tough loss to JAX & their rematch vs NE with a road game at BUF
on deck. LW CAR put the game in Delhomme’s hands (42 att’s) instead of letting the ground game
which had tallied 184 ypg (5.0) with an avg of 37 rush att’s pound it out vs a MIA def allowing 127
ypg (4.2). CAR has only won & covered 1 game TY where Delhomme has had 20 or more pass
att’s (2nd ATL). While the Jets have outgained foes 319-266 at home TY they are 1-4 SU & ATS vs
top 10 rushing teams with the only win being vs TEN when they were still searching for an offensive
identity in Wk 3. Sanchez has played 2 games vs a top 10 defense both being vs NE which helped
the coaching staff devise a gameplan in the 1st meeting (163 yds (64%, with 1 TD) to keep him out
of trouble. LW he had 136 yds (38%) with a 1-4 ratio & while CAR only has 1 sack in the L3W as
Peppers has been slowed by a broken hand there is enough gametape on Sanchez for Fox to work
with. The NFL has caught up to the Jets who are 1-6 ATS & dealing with injuries. We’ll side with CAR
getting points as the dog has covered 5 straight in their games & the Jets are 1-6 ATS as a home
favorite and the cold could affect Sanchez. FORECAST: Carolina 27 NY JETS 14

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* ST LOUIS over Seattle - SEA was able to mask some attrition to their OL & secondary in a come
from behind 32-20 win vs DET but since then has lost B2B road games & is now in its 3rd straight away.
LW at the half the Seahawks were outFD 15-2, outgained 202-61 yds & had -6 yds rushing as they
were w/out RB Jones (bruised lung). SEA is now 0-5 SU & ATS away & is an AF for the 1st time TY.
While STL only has 1 win this year they continue to play hard & the enthusiasm RB Jackson (133 ypg
5.6 L4W) has is becoming contagious. The Rams not only got their fi rst win vs DET but then covered
& OUTGAINED the Saints before getting the backdoor cover vs ARZ. STL should fi nd some running
room vs a Seahawks defense that is allowing 146 ypg (5.0 ypc) rushing on the road. The Seahawks
are also allowing 267 ypg (73%) with a 12-1 Ratio on the road TY. STL is a dangerous team here as
they are sick of losing & starting to show improvement in Spagnuolo’s system on both sides of the
ball making them worth a look with the points here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 26 Seattle 20

2* SAN DIEGO over Kansas City - The Chiefs come in having won 2 games in a row for the 1st
time since Sept 2007 after upsetting PIT at home LW. Despite being outgained 515-282, KC was
able to capitalize on PIT’s mistakes as they had a 97 yd KR for a TD & int’d Roethlisberger 2 times to
set up 10 pts. The Chiefs are proving to be a very scrappy team as while they have been outgained
397-279 over the L6 games they have covered 5 of them. The secret has been KC’s ball security &
they have just 6 giveaways (3 vs SD for 37-7 loss) with 11 takeaways in the span. SD handled the
Broncos LW 32-3 LW with a 348-271 yd edge, scoring on 7 of 10 drives to retake the AFC West but
it was costly. The lost DE Castillo (calf) & RT Clary (leg) & their status is unknown here. While SD
had 203 (4.7) yds rushing it was by 4 different backs. SD has outgained its div foes 345-270 TY &
is fi nally playing like the team they were projected to be early in the season. KC’s win ranks as one
of the biggest upsets of the season but they have still given up 400+ yds offense in 7 games TY
(456 ypg in those) & 2 of their best games were vs OAK with Russell. While SD has only beaten 2
teams TY by 2 TD’s (KC & DEN) they are starting to round into form as the playoff team everyone
envisioned. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 38 Kansas City 21

OTHER GAMES

Green Bay at DETROIT - Thursday - The Packers shutout the Lions 26-0 as a 14 pt HF in the previous
meeting moving to 6-0-1 ATS in the series. GB had a 435-149 yd edge as DET was very beat up playing
without Stafford, Calvin Johnson & 3 defensive starters. GB is only 2-6 ATS on Thursdays & 1-3 ATS vs
DET with a 26-25 avg score on Thanksgiving. GB is 2-1 ATS on the road vs losing teams TY (STL/CLE/
TB) with a 422-251 yd edge with the loss to TB due to a hangover after the MIN loss. DET has brought in
8 DB’s since the season opener for the #32 pass defense that’s worse than LY’s allowing 275 ypg (70%)
24-6 vs 232 ypg (68%) with a 25-4 ratio. DET is 1-6 ATS TY as a DD dog & GB’s travel issues aren’t that
bad as they’ve been at home the L2W. GB however will be without DE/OLB Kampman & CB Harris to
serious knee injuries here. Schwartz helped the Titans wreck the Lions LY on Thanksgiving 47-10 as an
11 pt AF as their DC & know has to motivate TY’s unit that gave up 37 pts to CLE LW. There is no line
here as Stafford injured his non-throwing shoulder LW but he took another step towards winning over
the team for 2010 as he threw the game winning TD. Turkey Day Play: OVER

Oakland at DALLAS - Thursday - This is only the 3rd time OAK has been in a mid-season Thursday
game (0-2 SU & ATS) but they did play SD in one LY so they have an idea of the practice & travel
schedule. DAL has won & covered 4 straight Thursdays by a 36-12 avg score. DAL has big stat
edges with the #5 & #16 units (-4 TO’s) vs OAK’s #32 & #24 units (-7 TO’s). Romo suffered a knee
bruise LW vs WAS & he only passed for 158 yds (56%) with a 1-1 ratio vs a WAS defense without DT
Haynesworth. While it wasn’t pretty he did lead the team to a win when it counted most with a 60/9pl
drive. OAK decided to see if it was the talent surrounding the QB or the QB LW as they benched
Russell & went with Gradkowski vs CIN. Gradkowski (183 yds 50% 2-1) gave the team enough spark
& athleticism to steal a win from CIN who fumbled a KR in the fi nal :30 to set up OAK’s game winning
FG. OAK has been outgained 392-159 TY on the road. Jones will make this game a priority after
the L2 offensive stinkers esp since this will be the only football game TV on in the nation & he has a
shiny new stadium to show off. Turkey Day Play: Dallas

NY Giants at DENVER - Thursday - This is the fi rst mid-season Thursday game for the Giants since
1995. This is the 5th straight year DEN has played a mid-season Thursday game but their 1st home
game. The Giants defense disappointed again LW as they allowed ATL to score in ALL four 2H possessions
with drives of 63/8pl, 51/18pl, 65/12pl & 76/12. This was one week after allowing SD an 80/8pl
fi nal drive for the GW TD. MLB Pierce is now out indefi nitely & is a major loss as not only the leading
tackler but the play caller. Denver’s Cinderella start gave many false hope but the Broncos have now
dropped 4 straight SU & ATS being outscored by 20 ppg. While it is not a “must win” for either team a
Thanksgiving Night loss will be tough as DEN has B2B road games on deck & the NYG have 3 straight
division battles up next. Get this play on the Northcoast Debit Card System for only $9 after 11:00
am on Thursday. Midweek Marquee Plays are on a 14-5-1 run (if you are a Thanksgiving Exec
member - no need to call, this play will be INCLUDED with your Executive Club Service!!!

ATLANTA 37 Tampa Bay 20 - TB is 9-4-1 ATS vs ATL. ATL has been worn down after 4 road games
in 5 Wks & it’s unknown if they’ll get either of their top 2 RB’s here. ATL has gone 5-1 SU & ATS vs
teams .500 or lower TY. While they have only outgained them by 7 ypg on avg they have posted a
27-16 avg win. While Ryan has led ATL to 216 ypg passing (64%) with an 11-7 ratio in those the run
game has carried the team with 132 ypg (4.3). The NFL caught up to Freeman LW as the Saints held
him to 126 yds (52%) with a 1-3 ratio. TB has been outgained in every game TY with a 354-297 avg
on the road while giving up 155 ypg (4.9) rushing. The Bucs are 2-5 ATS vs .500 or better teams TY
being outgained 392-268 & the Falcons now have 3 full games of tape to fi nd Freeman’s tendencies.
ATL was outgained 456-352 LW but converted 9 of 16 on 3rd Dns & had 4 drives of 63+ yds to send
the game to OT. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS after a SU loss & at 5-5 are in the middle of the pack for a
playoff spot in the NFC. Look for the Falcons to bounce back in a higher scoring game at home.

Miami 16 BUFFALO 10 - MIA throttled the Bills 38-10 in the 1st meeting as a 1 pt HF. They have won &
covered 3 straight in the series & 6 straight div games. MIA’s turnaround season LY was helped out by an
easy schedule & a remarkably healthy team that only had 3 players land on IR. TY however the injuries
are starting to pile up. While they beat CAR 24-17 thanks to an outstanding game by Ricky Williams (119
yds rushing 5.4) who had 3 TD’s they were down to just 5 OL & were playing their #3 C early in the 4Q.
It’s unknown if C Grove (ankle) will play but MIA may have lost NT Ferguson (knee) for the year & #2
NT Soliai (ankle) status is unknown. BUF switched to DC Perry Fewell as HC LW & he reinstalled Ryan
Fitzpatrick who had a decent game LW (297 yds 58% 1-2) vs JAX. The Bills did an admirable job in holding
Jones-Drew to 66 yds (2.6) rushing (133 5.6 L4W). The Bills have lost 3 straight at home after beating TB
in Wk 2 being outgained 337-245 by a 21-7 avg score. They are now 3-12 ATS vs 3-4 teams & are close
to the top with 12 players on IR adding RG Wood (broken leg) LW. This is a dangerous game to call with
a warm weather team coming to BUF late in the year & this is Henne’s fi rst start in a stadium notorious
for windy conditions. We’ll call for MIA by 6 for now & see what the weather will be here.

CINCINNATI 31 Cleveland 20 - Don’t “knee jerk” to CLE’s offensive explosion that totaled 290 yds in
the 1H LW which is more than their total in 7 games TY. They still have only outgained one opponent
this season & that was CIN in a 23-20 OT loss (+6.5). QB Quinn is making positive steps with an offense
that FINALLY stretched the fi eld with 9 completed passes of 12+ yds. Quinn also matured by going to 8
different receivers & going 10 of 19 on 3rd downs. CIN’s 3 game win streak came to an end LW as they
imploded LW at OAK. Despite a 348-275 yd edge CIN fumbled 3 times, were was hit for 8 penalties &
on 5 trips to OAK’s 20 came away with 2 TD, 1 FG, 1 missed FG & a fumble. CIN now returns home,
in 1st place in their division off a long road trip & is laying over 14 pts for the 1st time since 1990. They
haven’t grasped the favorite’s mentality going 1-6 as a HF & have beaten only 1 team by over 14 pts in
the L2Y. CLE may be in turmoil under HC Mangini & the defense had a good effort vs BAL & the offense
fi nally showed some life LW despite losing on games fi nal play in DET. CIN will want to win big & sweep
the AFC North at home to reward their fans but the dog is 9-0 ATS in Bengals games TY.

HOUSTON 28 Indianapolis 27 - Over the L2W IND has received an early Christmas present from
NE HC Belichick & escaped with a win after a bruising battle at BAL. The Colts have won 19 straight
& are used to playing with that target. While the Colts are on a B2B road trip that is negated by a HOU
squad having played TEN on Mon Night in what was surely an emotional home effort. This is a quick
turnaround as 3 weeks ago HOU covered & outgained IND but could not hold a 17-13 4Q lead & then
missed a game tying FG 42 yd FG on the fi nal play. IND is now 5-0 ATS on the road TY but the Texans
can match that with a 5-0 ATS record as a HD. Schaub (311 ypg, 71% L5W) gets a great matchup vs a
Colts pass defense that has allowed 307 ypg (70%) with a 4-4 ratio the L3W. HOU has also outgained
their L6 foes by an avg of 115 ypg & have the #6 defense the L4W prior to MNF allowing just 17 ppg in
that span. Teams are now 2-9 ATS the week after playing BAL as the Ravens physical defensive play
can carry over & expect HOU to snap a 5 game series losing streak here.

PHILADELPHIA 20 Washington 14 - The Eagles are off LW’s SNF game & it’s not known how their
injury depleted back 7 on defense held up. WAS is off a brutally tough loss as they controlled the fi rst 57
minutes of the game without DT Haynesworth (ankle) only to allow an injured Romo to drive 60/9pl for
the game winning TD. WAS had held Romo to just 98 yds (50%) with 1 int prior to the drive. Making things
worse for WAS is that they are likely to be without RB Betts (205, 3.9) & they lost RG Rinehart (ankle) as
well. Portis (60 ypg 4.2) was ruled out here by Zorn right after the DAL game. This is however an NFC East
matchup where the AD is now 16-6 ATS & WAS is also 6-1 ATS as a div AD inc LW’s cover as well as the
season opener in the Meadowlands. PHI was held to a season low 262 total yds in their fi rst matchup TY
on MNF & is was also the fi rst game that OC Sherm Lewis took over the play calling duties. The Redskins
D is performing at a high level as in the L7 games they have not allowed over 306 yds (275 ypg) & they’ve
had 21 sacks in that span. As long as QB Campbell (only 2 int’s in L3W) continues to not force passes
into coverage the Skins defense will keep them in the game with a chance to win.

TENNESSEE 24 Arizona 21 - This is a tough spot for ARZ who are in their 2nd straight road game &
have a big home game vs MIN on deck. TEN is a dangerous team here as they are 3-6 prior to MNF
(0-6 ATS afterwards) they have nothing to lose & their 3 wins have given them loads of confi dence.
ARZ had a 21-3 lead & 299 yds LW prior to Warner being taken out after a blow to the head & only
gained 128 yds afterwards. ARZ is now 4-1 ATS on the road TY & has outgained 379-316 & surprisingly
have outrushed foes 154 (4.5) to 102 (4.2) as well. ARZ has gained balance on offense thanks to an
improving run game (162 5.4) over the L3W. However they face a different challenge in TEN who since
their 59-0 blasting by NE now have a healthy & deep secondary that is allowing 190 ypg (58%) with
a 4-7 ratio. While Young isn’t putting up gaudy stats in his 3 starts (169 ypg 71% 2-1) he’s not putting
the team in a bad spot but he hasn’t been challenged to win in the air thanks to the run game. This is
a tough game to call without knowing if Warner will be available as the NFL has tougher concussion
rules or how TEN did vs a dedicated passing team LW & we’ll call for the Titans by 3 for now.

SAN FRANCISCO 17 Jacksonville 14 - This game has a pair of run oriented teams with disciplinarian
HC’s. Both teams were off misleading fi nals as SF trailed GB 23-3 at the half & was outgained 362-57.
JAX meanwhile was outgained 343-310 vs BUF but a 68/12pl drive led to the GW TD with under 1:00
left. JAX QB Garrard has struggled on the road (177 ypg 56% 1-2 ratio) compared to at home (24 ypg
65% 6-3 ratio). The SF defense will force him to beat them in the air as they are allowing just 3.5 ypc.
The Jaguars are just 4-12 ATS vs non-div foes & in their only other trip to the West Coast they were
mauled in Seattle 41-0. JAX has also struggled scoring avg under 20 ppg the L4W. Since Singletary’s
promotion the 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a SU loss. SF is also buying into the conservative mistake free
offense and are on a 12-4-2 ATS run. QB Smith has kept drives alive with his 65% completions
compared to the replaced QB Shaun Hill who was completing 56%. Both teams offset each other &
while JAX has a little stronger edge in the passing game they are very inconsistent. We’ll call for the
49ers by 3 for now & watch the line.

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE - Both teams enter this crucial game off tough losses. While PIT had a
515-282 yd edge in LW’s loss they set an NFL record by allowing a special teams/defensive return for
a TD for the 8th straight game. BAL played tough with IND LW & int’d Manning twice but they couldn’t
get the run game on track (98 yds 3.2) to open up the passing game. BAL will be without OLB Suggs
again while Roethlisberger may have sustained a concussion late vs KC. This game will have a playoff
implications as barring a CIN collapse they are fi ghting for 1 of the 2 Wildcard spots.

New England at NEW ORLEANS - The Saints did what was needed in a workmanlike 38-7 win LW
at TB to stay undefeated. NE meanwhile not only revenged an earlier loss to the NYJ but also took out
frustrations off their loss at Indy. The Saints are now 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a HF & the 2 games they did
not cover were 8 & 10 point wins. On the fl ip side NE has been an underdog only ONCE in 2 seasons &
that was the Indy game just 2 weeks ago while going 6-1 ATS as a dog the L4 seasons. Don’t miss out
on Monday Night Magic! We are now offering a MONEY BACK PLUS Guarantee on MNM through
the Northcoast Debit Card System - take advantage on Monday night after 3:00 pm EST!

Pointwise

College Key Releases:

Rating 1: MISSOURI over Kansas
Rating 1: ALABAMA over Auburn
Rating 2: GEORGIA TECH over Georgia
Rating 3: IDAHO over Utah State
Rating 4: ARIZONA over Arizona State
Rating 4: SOUTH FLORIDA over Miami (Fl)
Rating 5: BOWLING GREEN over Toledo
Rating 5: BOISE STATE over Nevada

NFL Key Releases:

Rating 2: MINNESOTA over Chicago
Rating 2: DALLAS over Oakland
Rating 3: CAROLINA over New York Jets
Rating 4: CLEVELAND over Cincinnati
Rating 5: KANSAS CITY over San Diego

RED SHEET

Texas Tech 57 - Baylor 17 - (6:00 EST- @ Arlington, Tex) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 21½, and is
now minus 22. Always potentially explosive Raiders have sure had their QB troubles this
season, with injuries to both Potts & Sheffield, which has hampered any sustained backing,
to say the least. But LW's improbable wipeout of Oklahoma sure lights the "buy sign", as far
as our sources are concerned, especially in their quest for a more prominent bowl placement.
Potts threw for 388 yds vs the Okies, with Batch running for 161 yds vs Sooners' 5th
rated rushing "D". Bears simply waiting for season's curtain to fall. Romper!
RATING: TEXAS TECH 89

Missouri 41 - Kansas 20 - (3:30 - @ Kansas City) -- Line opened at Missouri minus 3, and is now minus 4½.
Yes, we know that the Tigers have been an enigma of sorts this season, never once stringing
together 2 consecutive covers, while posting 13, 11½, 9, 21½, & 23 pt spread losses.
But through it all, they've emerged with a 7-4 record, & have been looking to this contest all
season, after losing in the final 0:27 a year ago. QB Grabbert has tossed for 22 TDs (70-yd
& 63-yd scoring passes last week), with only 7 picks. Jayhawks have lost 6 straight games
SU, & 7 straight ATS. Mangino's off-field problems simply cement this.
RATING: MISSOURI 89

Mississippi 33 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 13 - (12:20) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 6½, and is now
minus 7. Our The Polls column on opening week pegged the Rebels as the nation's 8th
best squad, & legitimately so, in light of their spectacular '08 windup, when they ran the SU
table in their last 6 games, while covering their final 5 outings by a combined 105 pts! In
McCluster, they have this year's edition of Percy Harvin, with the ability to take it to the house
on any occasion. And he has simply exploded of late, with 430 RYs the past 2 weeks, on a
spectacular 10.8 ypr. Bulldogs now out of bowl picture, and were routed LY.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI 88

STANFORD 42 - Notre Dame 27 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Stanford minus 5½, and now is minus 8.
Two factors originally has us tabling the Cardinal as a high choice, namely the fact that
Stanford was entering off a crushing loss, in what was billed as one of the biggest games in
the school's history, along with incredible success in the dog in Irish games, which has now
reached ten straight. However, 3 straight Irish losses have dashed all hopes of a successful
season, with Weis' demise a major conversation topic across the nation. And remember,
Stanford has covered 10 of its last 11 HGs, and owns the revenge hammer.
RATING: STANFORD 88

Virginia Tech 38 - VIRGINIA 7 - (3:30) -- Line opened at VirginiaTech minus 13½, and is now minus 13. Yes,
we know that the Cavs put it to us a week ago, with that more than decent showing against
Clemson. Did it with a shocking 21 first half pts, which is more than they had managed to
score in any of their previous 5 entire games. But they were shutout in the 2nd half, while
finishing with just 78 RYs. Rank 109th in rushing, as well as 119th in total offense. Not the
proper credentials vs the Hokies' 17th ranked "D". Tech is the highest ranked 3-loss team in
the land, & can't see Virginia containing Williams or Taylor. Lay it!
RATING: VIRGINIA TECH 88

New England 37 - NEW ORLEANS 33 - (8:35 Monday - ESPN) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 3, and
is still minus 3. This one obviously reminds us of the Patriots' recent battle with the also
perfect Colts, which went down to the expectant wire, with a 35-34 final. Not much more
can be said of the Patriots, & their exploits over the last 9 years. Only the injury to key
players seems to have kept them from reaching the ultimate prize, just about every year.
The Saints, of course, have done everything expected of them, with Brees staking the NFL's
best offense to a 10-0 start. Superlatives galore, but experience the decider.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Alabama, GaTech, Houston, NoCaroSt -- NFL: Minnesota, Buffalo, Carolina

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY