FLORIDA STATE 24 - Clemson 23—Seemingly lost among the wellpublicized
offensive woes that led to Tommy Bowden’s demise at Clemson has
been the staunch play of the Tigers’ speedy defense (only 17 ppg). While we
won’t be surprised if Fla. State ekes out win behind blossoming soph QB
Ponder, unwilling to lay substantial points with Seminoles, who have covered
just 6 of their last 20 as Tallahassee chalk.
(07-CLEM. 24-Fla. St. 18...C.16-8 C.42/132 F.28/114 C.14/24/0/160 F.17/35/0/142 C.1 F.1)
(07-CLEM. +3' 24-18 06-Clem. +4 27-20 05-CLEM. +1' 35-14...SR: Florida State 15-6)
EAST CAROLINA 37 - Marshall 21—Although Marshall usually manages to
mount a strong defense of its Huntington home field, Thundering Herd has
blundered away their backers’ money in 22 of last 28 on road (including recent
SU loss at lowly UAB). ECU’s complementary veteran QBs Pinkney & Kass will
find enough holes in leaky Marshall pass defense (263 ypg) to pilot Pirates to
comfy victory.
(07-MAR. 26-E. Car. 7...M.26-14 M.42/239 E.28/108 M.24/32/0/238 E.16/29/0/151 M.0 E.0)
(07-MARSHALL +7 26-7 06-ECU -7 33-20 05-Ecu +5' 34-29...SR: East Carolina 6-3)
NEBRASKA 27 - Kansas 26—Kansas hasn’t won at Nebraska since 1968
and the days of QB Bobby Douglass, HC Pepper Rodgers, and President LBJ!
The Jayhawk offense has rediscovered overachieving RB Jake Sharp (181 YR
& 4 TDs vs. K-State). However, NU’s offense potent enough to make points
valuable if it can avoid duplicating last week’s self-destruction at Norman.
(07-KAN. 76-Neb. 39...K.34-22 K.49/218 N.23/79 N.25/50/4/405 K.30/41/0/354 K.0 N.1)
(07-KAN. -19' 76-39 06-NEB. -22' 39-32 (OT) 05-KAN. P 40-15...SR: Nebraska 88-23-3)
Penn State 24 - IOWA 21—Rested Penn State has sights set on national
championship, and Texas Tech’s upset of Texas both opens the door and
should serve to warn Nittany Lions of potential pitfalls. However, Iowa owns a
sturdy defense, solid special teams, the No. 3 rusher in the country in Shonn
Greene. Hawkeye faithful organizing “Greene-out” for this match. If Iowa QB
Stanzi avoids mistakes, this one stays close. TV-ABC
(07-PENN ST. 27-Iowa 7...P.26-8 P.50/256 I.28/48 P.18/32/2/233 I.16/29/0/146 P.1 I.0)
(07-PENN STATE -9 27-7...SR: Penn State 12-8)
*BOSTON COLLEGE 27 - Notre Dame 20—Formidable test of Charlie Weis’
motivational powers as he tries to get Irish fired up to end 5-game losing streak
to Catholic rival BC just one week after his youthful squad suffered emotionsapping
4-OT home loss to Pitt. Domers have top offensive weapon on field in
terrific true frosh WR Floyd (601 YR in last 6 games), but host Eagles’ rock-ribbed
front 7 on defense likely to hold sway. TV-ABC
(07-Bos. Col. 27-N. DAME 14...B.21-14 B.34/168 N.21/27 B.32/49/1/291 N.18/49/2/195 B.0 N.0)
(07-Boston College -13' 27-14...SR: Notre Dame 9-8)
TENNESSEE 35 - Wyoming 3—In this intersectional pitting coaches with
pink slips likely in near future, lean to defensively-solid UT (19 ppg, 2.9 ypc),
which has covered 4 of last 5 laying nearly 3 TDs or more. Good chance Vols
slumbering offense finally wakes up vs. yielding Wyo defense that’s permitted
40 pts. or more in 4 of last 6 games. MWC bottom-feeder Cowboys haven’t
covered two straight since Oct. 21, 2006!
(DNP...SR: Tennessee 2-0)
Alabama 24 - LSU 16—In Nick Saban’s (“The game is not about me”) highlyanticipated
return to Baton Rouge, recommend his No. 1-ranked Bama, which
clinches West Division title with victory over nemesis LSU. Tide’s disciplined
sr. QB J.P. Wilson (61%, just 4 ints.), well-supported by punishing run assault
(202 ypg, 22 TDs), far less likely to make critical miscues than Tigers impetuous
triggerman J. Lee, who has thrown 10 ints, with 5 returned for TDs. LSU RBs
find few holes vs. Bama’s impenetrable front 7 (miserly 2.6 ypc & 1 TD) fortified
with return of mammoth, run-stuffing NT Cody. Unfinished Tiger defense,
reportedly missing LY’s 2ndary leadership, has an SEC-low 8 takeaways. TV-CBS
(07-Lsu 41-ALA. 34...L.21-20 L.34/87 A.33/20 L.25/46/3/388 A.14/40/1/234 L.0 A.1)
(07-Lsu -7 41-34 06-LSU -17' 28-14 05-Lsu -3 16-13 (OT)...SR: Alabama 43-23-5)
OREGON 32 - Stanford 13—Jim Harbaugh’s smashmouth tactics have
worked vs. lesser stop units in ‘08. But Oregon has enough “D” (allowing only
2.9 ypc) to prevent Toby Gerhart from pounding away at will, and not convinced
erratic Stanford QB Pritchard can compensate if infantry diversion not
available. Meanwhile, Ducks’ 2-headed monster at RB (J. Johnson & L. Blount
combined 22 TDs) a nice complement for juco QB Masoli. Note UO has won
and covered last 6 vs. the Tree.
(07-Ore. 55-STAN. 31...O.26-19 O.46/222 S.32/140 O.27/37/0/367 S.25/44/1/262 O.3 S.1)
(07-Ore. -18 55-31 06-ORE. -12 48-10 05-Ore. -6' 44-20...SR: Stanford 44-26-1)
*Arizona State 34 - WASHINGTON 15—Was competitive effort at Oregon
State an indicator that ASU ready to shake debilitating slump (and its longest
losing streak since Herbert Hoover was president?). We’re not sure, but we do
know that we don’t have the nerve to pick the spot when winless U-Dub next
delivers a competitive effort under lame-duck Ty Willingham, who was fired last
week prior to the SC game. Sun Devils can extend margin if they can balance
“O” with infantry as they did at Corvallis (RB DeWitty 110 YR).
(07-ARIZ. ST. 44-Wash. 20...A.23-13 A.49/296 W.32/146 A.20/31/1/227 W.10/30/1/142 A.0 W.1)
(07-ASU -11' 44-20 06-Asu -1' 26-23 (OT) 05-ASU -16' 44-20...SR: Washington 15-12)
Hawaii 35 - NEW MEXICO STATE 23—Since injury-plagued NMS beset with
more problems than 4-5 bowl-seeking UH, prefer to buck sliding Aggies, who
can’t run a lick without injured RB Colston, generating a paltry 109 yds. in last
93 attempts (1.7 ypc). Warriors decent QBs Alexander and/or Funaki work
play-action vs. Charmin-soft NMS run defense (5.8 ypc). Resilient UH 9-3 vs.
spread last 12 following SU loss.
(07-HAWAII 50-N. Mex. St. 13...N.28-26 N.27/77 H.14/67 H.29/46/1/425 N.41/59/3/365 H.1 N.0)
(07-HAWAII -29' 50-13 06-Hawaii -19 49-30 05-HAWAII -20' 49-28...SR: Hawaii 4-0)
*HOUSTON 37 - Tulane 20—Both sides have suffered key offensive injuries
recently. Although plucky Green Wave defense trying hard not to cave,
Houston still has enough weapons to continue recent series dominance that
has seen Cougars cover 5 straight meetings while winning each of last 4 tilts by
at least 21 points.
(07-Hou. 34-TULANE 10...H.24-16 H.35/201 T.29/85 H.24/34/2/304 T.18/43/2/228 H.1 T.0)
(07-Hou. -14' 34-10 06-HOU. -14 45-7 05-Hou. -2 35-14 at Lafayette...SR: Houston 9-4)
*AIR FORCE 38 - Colorado State 20—Tricky psychological spot for CSU,
which just missed chance at season-saving upset vs. BYU. And Rams now
back on road, where they’ve yet to cover in four tries TY. Frosh QB Jefferson
adding speed dimension to Air Force “option-spread” looks, and must
acknowledge Falcs’ pointspread prowess since HC Calhoun arrived LY (7-1 vs.
line at home,15-5 vs. points overall!).
(07-A. Force 45-COLO. ST. 21...A.26-24 A.69/385 C.43/224 C.16/29/4/156 A.3/5/0/52 A.1 C.0)
(07-Afa +3 45-21 06-AFA -6 24-21 05-CSU -3' 41-23...SR: Air Force 26-19-1)
UCLA 22 - Oregon State 20—It’s a good thing UCLA isn’t appearing on
Dancing with the Stars, as Bruno Tonioli would surely dock Bruins some style
points. And Rick Nueheisel reportedly toying with the idea of giving frosh QB
Forcier a look in wake of juco QB Craft’s ongoing struggles. But UCLA has
mysteriously brought out the worst in OSU lately (Bruins have won and covered
last 5), and Beavs might be minus catalyst QB Moevao (KO’d with shoulder
injury last week vs. ASU).
(07-Ucla 40-ORE. ST. 14...U.17-15 U.50/133 O.38/102 U.14/25/1/220 O.22/35/2/146 U.2 O.3)
(07-Ucla +2' 40-14 06-UCLA +1' 25-7 05-UCLA -9 51-28...SR: UCLA 39-13-4)
Arizona 52 - WASHINGTON STATE 0—Is Wazzu on verge of being relegated
to Big Sky Conference? And would Cougs fare any better vs. Weber State &
Montana anyway? With Wazzu outscored 172-0 since 2nd Q of Oregon State
debacle (10+ quarters ago), we’re really not sure where this pointspread might
end up. Final margin can be whatever Mike Stoops wants it to be.
(07-ARIZ. 48-Wash. St. 20...A.28-27 A.45/221 W.25/71 W.35/58/2/347 A.22/31/0/346 A.1 W.0)
(07-ARIZONA -2' 48-20 06-Arizona +16 27-17...SR: Arizona 22-13)
Southern Miss 29 - UCF 24—While we acknowledge that UCF has been
profitable play at home since moving into new on-campus stadium LY, edge in
firepower possessed by visiting USM (gaining nearly 220 more ypg than last-innation
Knight offense!) so stark that it’s tough to consider supporting host.
(07-Ucf 34-S. MISS 17...21-21 U.53/219 S.31/159 U.12/16/0/162 S.20/29/3/144 U.0 S.1)
(07-Ucf +3 34-17 06-Usm -6 19-14 05-USM -8' 52-31...SR: Southern Miss 2-1)
*TEXAS 38 - Baylor 17—Texas has buried Baylor by 34 ppg in the Bears’ last
four trips to Austin. However, those were the days before BU’s inspirational HC
Art Briles and marvelous frosh QB Robert Griffin (went a record 209 atts. before
his first int. last week). And before the Longhorns blew the top spot in the BCS
rankings with one second left at Texas Tech! (Should UT have risked burning more
clock before scoring its last TD in Lubbock?)
(07-Texas 31-BAY. 10...T.27-19 T.46/177 B.18/8 T.25/36/2/293 B.32/56/4/284 T.1 B.0)
(07-Texas -25' 31-10 06-TEXAS -27 63-31 05-Texas -29 62-0...SR: Texas 71-22-4)
*WEST VIRGINIA 28 - Cincinnati 26—After rocky start under new HC Bill
Stewart, Mountaineers have re-established themselves as the team to beat in
Big East with 5 straight victories. Star QB Pat White and underrated WV
defense (allowing just 16 ppg) might help push host’s win streak to 6. But
Bearcats likely to die hard now that accurate jr. QB Tony Pike (20 of 28 for 281
yards & 2 TDs last week) back under center. TV-ESPNU
(07-W. Va. 28-CINCY 23...W.24-17 W.61/295 C.30/84 C.19/34/0/323 W.13/19/1/140 W.2 C.2)
(07-Wva -6 28-23 06-WVA -18 42-24 05-Wva -14 38-0...SR: West Virginia 14-1-1)
Louisville 24 - PITTSBURGH 23—Since Pitt (just 2-10-1 vs. spread last 13
at home) has failed to develop any meaningful edge at Heinz Field, can’t count
on Panthers’ momentum from last week’s 4-OT win at Notre Dame carrying
through to this game. Cards counter Pitt star RB LeSean McCoy with RS frosh
V. Anderson (840 YR on 6.2 ypc), and Louisville sr. QB Cantwell is most
confident passer on field.
(07-LVL. 24-Pitt 17...L.23-15 L.39/120 P.35/107 L.21/30/1/236 P.11/21/0/163 L.0 P.1)
(07-LVL. -10 24-17 06-Lvl. -10' 48-24 05-LVL. -20' 42-20...SR: Louisville 7-4)
MINNESOTA 27 - Michigan 16—Prefer to lay the points with Minnesota,
although must check key Gopher WR Eric Decker’s ankle injury. Obviously,
Michigan defense in tatters, as that unit has yielded 40 ppg in Big Ten play.
After being eliminated from bowl picture and saddled with worst record at Ann
Arbor in 30 years, it’s qestionable how senior-laden Wolverine “D” will react.
TV-ESPN
(07-MI. 34-Minn. 10...Mc.22-16 Mc.49/307 Mn.36/132 Mc.12/21/0/254 Mn.14/30/0/99 Mc.2 Mn.1)
(07-MICH. -23' 34-10 06-Mich. -9' 28-14 05-Minn. +7' 23-20...SR: Michigan 69-24-3)
*SOUTHERN CAL 27 - California 16—We doubt Pete Carroll will enlist Will
Ferrell for another practice field stunt with serious football matters finally athand after latest romp past another Pac-10 stiff (Washington). And even though
SC’s top-ranked “D” doing a pretty good imitation of Pittsburgh’s old Steel
Curtain defense, Jeff Tedford’s clever Cal “O” has a lot more dimensions than
the many impotent attacks Troy has stonewalled in recent weeks. Bear d.c.
Gregory also well familiar with Trojan “O” that’s scored far below average in last
2 series meetings. TV—ABC
(07-S. Cal 24-CAL. 17...C.25-19 S.48/239 C.45/200 C.13/29/2/199 S.11/20/0/129 S.2 C.1)
(07-Usc -4' 24-17 06-USC -5' 23-9 05-Usc -18' 35-10...SR: Southern Cal 60-30-5)
*New Mexico 24 - UNLV 16—UNLV in midst of annual late-season fade, but
Rebs hadn’t endured a true meltdown TY until last week’s beatdown, courtesy
TCU. And now, with livewire soph QB Clayton likely KO’d by knee injury, very
green RS frosh Clausen in line for unenviable task of solving Rocky Long’s
unorthodox 3-3-5 New Mexico stop unit. Expect Lobo RB Ferguson to do some
business vs. soft UNLV stop unit allowing hefty 5.2 ypc.
(07-N. MEX. 27-Unlv 6...16-16 N.38/173 U.34/91 N.19/33/2/210 U.15/40/2/142 N.2 U.0)
(07-UNM -11' 27-6 06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT) 05-UNM -15 24-22...SR: New Mexico 9-6)
ADDED GAMES
TROY 38 - Western Kentucky 14—Troy is the Sun Belt kingpin, with a 12-4-
1 spread mark in last 17 conference games. WKU joins the loop next season
and has “warmed up” by losing last 4 vs. Sun Belt foes (0-2 vs. spread).
Hilltopper “D” couldn’t handle then-winless North Texas attack last week, and
offense was sloppy...that’s a bad combination.
(07-Troy 21-W. KY. 17...W.20-17 W.49/256 T.44/241 W.12/23/2/160 T.13/26/1/122 T.0 W.1)
(07-Troy (NL) 21-17...SR: Troy 5-0-1)
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31 - North Texas 21—This is a lot of wood to chop for
Schnellenberger’s banged-up FAU squad. Owls are 0-2 laying double digits in 5
years on the line, and NT QB Vizza has 296 ypg passing & 9 TD strikes in last 4
games. Mean Green confidence bolstered by rare win (at WKU) last week.
(07-Fla. Atl. 30-N. TEX. 20...N.29-17 N.27/165 F.28/84 F.21/45/0/322 N.38/61/3/301 F.0 N.0)
(07-Fau -6' 30-20 06-Fau +5 17-16 05-FAU -3' 26-23...SR: Florida Atlantic 4-0)
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 48 - Utep 30—Go-with vs. go-against. ULL has covered 7
straight, while meandering Miners just 3-9 vs. spread their last 12. With dynamic
senior duo of RB Fenroy (1000 YR in each of his 4 seasons) & QB Desormeaux
running roughshod over UTEP defense permitting 5.2 ypc, Ragin’ Cajuns
continue to roll. (FIRST MEETING)
*Arkansas State 24 - FLORIDA INTL. 23—After being derailed by Bama’s
formidable stop unit, ASU’s well-balanced attack gets back on track vs. fading
FIU defense that’s allowed 82 pts. last two games. However, Red Wolves only
1-6 as a road favorite last 5+Ys.
(07-ASU 27-Fiu 24...A.18-15 A.41/177 F.42/140 A.19/30/0/174 F.9/19/2/110 A.0 F.0)
(07-ASU -17 27-24 06-Asu +7' 31-6 05-ASU -9 66-24...SR: Arkansas State 3-0)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 24 - La.-Monroe 23—Status of ULM QB
Lancaster ? after he was KO’d in 4th Q last week vs. Troy, but Warhawks won’t
mind going to battle with backup Revell, who completed all 5 of his passes on
winning TD drive in upset win over Trojans. Meanwhile, Rick Stockstill
continuing to let playmaking MTSU QB Dasher mostly languish on bench while
waiting for erratic starter Craddock to display some consistency.
(07-Mts 43-LA.-MON. 40...L.30-23 L.47/360 M.35/98 M.22/29/0/401 L.24/38/2/264 M.0 L.2)
(07-Mts -3' 43-40 06-Mts -3' 35-21 05-Ulm +11 34-31...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 6-2)