Newsletters 12/10 - 12/14

GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

NEW YORK JETS by 14 over Tampa Bay
MIAMI by 10 over Jacksonville
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Carolina-New England game

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10

*Pittsburgh 18 - CLEVELAND 15—Neither a very appealing alternative. But
the thought of laying substantial points on the road with backsliding Pittsburgh
(lost last 4, including vs. the Chiefs & Raiders!) even less palatable. Rumors of
internal strife in Steeler clubhouse continue to circulate after recent Hines
Ward-Big Ben concussion controversy (did Ward get a medical degree at
Georgia, too?), and Troy Polamalu’s absence has robbed Dick LeBeau’s
defense its best big-play element. Meanwhile, Brady Quinn’s audition for the
Cleveland QB job in 2010 gaining a little momentum with rookie WRs
Massaquoi & Robiskie emerging. Ugly Browns a fairly pretty 6-3 vs. spread
since October 4. TV—NFL NETWORK
(09-PITT 27-Cle. 14...P.28-12 P.36/140 C.23/91 P.23/35/1/403 C.9/26/2/106 P.3 C.2)
(08-Pitt 10-CLE. 6...C.17-14 P.31/117 C.25/53 P.12/19/0/164 C.18/32/2/155 P.0 C.0)
(08-PITT 31-Cle. 0...P.20-8 P.35/176 C.29/106 P.17/27/1/193 C.6/18/2/20 P.0 C.0)
(09-PITT -14 27-14; 08-Pitt -6' 10-6, PITT -11 31-0...SR: Pittsburgh 60-55)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13

INDIANAPOLIS 23 - Denver 20—Historic moment now at hand for Indy,
which can set a new reg.-season win streak record (22) with another success,
striking the Belichick/Brady Patriots from the record book in the process (not a
bad combo for Colts fans, eh?). But like most of Indy’s recent wins, don’t expect
it to come easy, especially with Denver regaining its mojo now that Kyle Orton
is healthy enough to execute Josh McDaniels’ dink-and-dunk offense while
Bronco RBs Moreno & Buckhalter keep the Colts honest. Addition of veteran
DB Ty Law has meant more smarts for Mike Nolan’s heady 3-4 Denver defense.
(07-INDIANAPOLIS -9' 38-20...SR: Denver 11-8)

MINNESOTA 20 - Cincinnati 18—How could it be? One of the more curious
trends in the NFL is that the underdog has covered all of Cincy’s 2009 games!
That includes a 6-0 dog mark by the vastly-improved Bengals, who saw harddriving
RB Cedric Benson return last week to pound out 110 YR to boost his
total to 969. The underappreciated unit of Cincy has been its big & deep OL,
facing one of its tougher challenges. And let’s not forget the rugged Bengal
defense (fewest points allowed through 12 weeks).
(05-CINCINNATI -3 37-8...SR: EVEN 5-5)

NY Jets 26 - TAMPA BAY 12—Both of these pick-prone rookie QBs
(Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman and NY’s Mark Sanchez, the latter expected to be
available after spraining knee vs. Bills) are capable of single-handedly wrecking
their team’s chances, but trust Sanchez’ veteran supporting cast much
more. Jets can rely upon RBs Thomas Jones (1068 YR) & emerging Iowa
rookie Shonn Greene to take lots of pressure off Sanchez, while Rex Ryan’s
signature blitzes should unnerve Freeman, whose 5 picks proved deadly last
week at Carolina. If Sanchez can’t go, NY loses little if Kellen Clemens
summoned from bullpen. At short price, can’t trust T.B., which has lost 15 of
last 16 SU since last December.
(05-NY JETS +2' 14-12...SR: NY Jets 8-1)

KANSAS CITY 23 - Buffalo 17—While contemplating how these two could
have possibly combined for 85 points a year ago at Arrowhead (54-31 Bills!), we
wonder if either straggler can escape the gravity of the other this season.
Based on K.C.’s last two showings (vs. Chargers & Broncs), backing a longshot
at Aqueduct seems more reasonable than supporting the Chiefs. But this is the
NFL, and K.C. RB Jamaal Charles should damage the very-soft Buffalo rush
defense allowing nearly 5 ypc. Woody Hayes-like tactics (such as outdoor
practices in December) favored by interim HC Perry Fewell might wear real thin
with Bills vets down the stretch.
(08-Buff. 54-K.CITY 31...B.27-21 B.38/171 K.13/159 K.24/39/2/303 B.24/32/0/273 B.0 K.3)
(08-Buffalo -3 54-31...SR: Buffalo 22-17-1)

CHICAGO 20 - Green Bay 17—Chicago taking positives wherever it can find
them these days, so Jay Cutler’s modest effort that included no picks last week
vs. the Rams is considered good news in the Windy City despite Devin Hester’s
calf injury. But with the pointspread favorable for the Bears’ after their recent
failures (no covers last 5; or 7 of last 8), perhaps Chicago worth a look vs. its
oldest rival. Aaron Rodgers doing better job avoiding sacks and minimizing
mistakes recently due to shorter drops and more dinks. But note that Packers
have extended the margin only vs. the bottom-feeding Rams, Browns, and
Lions. Bears made of sterner stuff than that lowly trio.
(09-G. BAY 21-Chi. 15...C.18-12 C.31/86 G.22/76 C.17/36/4/266 G.17/28/0/150 G.0 C.0)
(08-G. BAY 37-Chi. 3...G.24-9 G.38/200 C.20/83 G.23/30/1/227 C.17/33/0/156 G.0 C.1)
(08-CHI. 20-G. Bay 17 (OT)...G.20-15 C.26/74 G.29/65 G.24/39/1/260 C.14/27/2/136 C.0 G.1)
(09-G. BAY -4' 21-15; 08-G. BAY -3' 37-3, CHICAGO -4 20-17 (OT)...SR: Chicago 91-81-6)

New Orleans 31 - ATLANTA 17—In the first meeting, a late Mike Bell fumble
set up an Atlanta FG in the last minute, giving the Falcons a shaky cover. One
of the more amazing stats of the season is that New Orleans—in these passhappy,
QB friendly days of the NFL—has given up only 27 points in the fourth
quarter all year!!! This despite the Saints’ many early leads and their shuffling
in the secondary due to injuries. For sure, veteran S Darren Sharper (8 ints.)
has kept things together. Atlanta hopeful of having Matt Ryan back this week;
less optimistic regarding RB Michael Turner.
(09-N. ORL. 35-Atl. 27...N.23-21 A.24/161 N.35/146 N.25/33/1/291 A.19/42/3/281 N.3 A.0)
(08-ATL. 34-N. Orl. 20...N.25-18 A.36/113 N.17/105 N.31/58/3/414 A.16/23/0/248 A.0 N.0)
(08-N. ORL. 29-Atl. 25...N.24-22 N.30/184 A.30/99 A.24/33/1/315 N.18/32/0/230 N.0 A.0)
(09-N. ORL. -11 35-27; 08-ATLANTA -1 34-20, N. ORL. -3 29-25...SR: Atlanta 45-36)

BALTIMORE 27 - Detroit 6—Last year, Joe Flacco helped lead the Ravens
to the playoffs as a rookie starting QB, being careful not to make mistakes and
throwing only 12 regular-season interceptions. Lacking Flacco’s ground attack
and defensive support, the Lions’ Matthew Stafford already has 20, not to
mention a sore left shoulder. And Detroit’s defense, allowing nearly 70%
completions, is far from Baltimore’s. Lions (four starters out last week)
suffering from attrition.
(05-DETROIT -1 35-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

Miami 27 - JACKSONVILLE 17—Jags used a quick hit and some
rather anonymous players to knock off Houston last week. Second-year DE
Derrick Harvey sacked and injured QB Matt Schaub on the Texans’ first play,
knocking him from the game for a substantial period. For Jacksonville, rookie
WR Mike Thomas (Arizona) had 3 catches, rookie TE Zach Miller (converted
Nebraska-Omaha QB) had 3 more, and first-year WR Nate Hughes (Alcorn
State) had a 35-yard TDC. But Miami, now 6-6 after an 0-3 start, is also thinking
playoffs, and young QB Chad Henne’s confidence restored after his 335-yard
output last week to come from behind to topple the Patriots. Jags 0-9 last 9 as
a home favorite!
(2009 Preseason: Miami -3 beat Jacksonville 12-9 at Miami)
(06-Jacksonville +1 24-10...SR: Jacksonville 3-1)

UNDER THE TOTAL NEW ENGLAND 27 - Carolina 7—Insiders
report former UCLA/Oregon State QB Matt Moore is laid-back and confident.
And why not, considering he is 3-1 SU (4-0 vs. the spread) as an NFL as a
starter with Carolina. After all, Jake Delhomme (finger fracture; check his
status and that of RB DeAngelo Williams) had accumulated 18 ints. vs. only 8
TDP in the Panthers’ first 11 games. Last week’s come-from-ahead loss at Miami
puts New England’s AFC East lead in jeopardy. But Pats 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. the
spread as a home favorite TY. Low-scoring Panthers “under” 5 of their last 7.
(05-CAROLINA +3 27-17...SR: EVEN 2-2)

HOUSTON 24 - Seattle 13—Recent history repeating itself in Houston, only
this latest string of hard-luck losses is casting some doubt over Gary Kubiak’s
future (with owner Bob McNair reportedly growing tired of Texans’ litany of nearmisses).
But history also indicates that with some pressure off, Houston closes
fast under Kubiak, with the Texans undefeated SU and vs. line their last two
reg.-season home games since Kubiak took over in ‘06. Although backup QB
Rex Grossman dug the Texans a hole they couldn’t escape at Jacksonville last
week, Matt Schaub returned from an early left shoulder injury and nearly
generated a comeback. Visiting Seattle has lost and failed to cover 6 of its last
7 on road. Texans “under” 7-2 last 9 TY.
(05-SEATTLE -9' 42-10...SR: Seattle 1-0)

TENNESSEE 31 - St. Louis 13—Chris Johnson (1509 YR) vs. Steven
Jackson (1232). But the edge goes to the speedy Johnson vs. the generous St.
Louis rush defense giving up 4.7 ypc. These teams have changed greatly since
the Rams’ narrow 23-16 escape vs. Steve McNair and the Titans in the Super
Bowl ten years ago, but Jeff Fisher is still seeking a little payback, with St. Louis
winning the only meeting since, in 2005. Fisher is 15-8 his last 23 when favored.
Even with last week’s loss at undefeated Indy, Vince Young is 5-1 SU and vs.
the spread as a starter TY. (05-ST. LOUIS -6' 31-27...SR: St. Louis 7-3)

Washington 26 - OAKLAND 20—Oakland now 2-1 SU & vs. the spread
behind sparkplug QB Bruce Gradkowski (Pittsburgh native), who tossed three
TDP in the fourth quarter last week to shock his hometown Steelers (especially
HC Mike Tomlin, who had promised to “unleash hell”). But the Raiders have had
a tough time putting wins back-to-back, as they are now 0-3 SU & vs. the spread
in 2009 after a victory, being outscored 85 to 10! The Redskins are showing
late-season development despite their injury plague, as second-year WR Devin
Thomas (two TDs last week), second-year TE Fred Davis (5 recs.) and rookie RB
Quinton Ganther (46 YR) all contributed in last week’s near miss vs. New Orleans.
(05-Oakland +6 16-13...SR: Oakland 8-3)

DALLAS 31 - San Diego 24—Is it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Cowboys are well familiar with their so-called “December slump,” which has
seen them go 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 vs. the spread in December home games the
last four years. But there’s a big rush edge for Dallas and its troika at RBs in this
one vs. S.D.’s low-ranking overland assault. And the Chargers were a little thin
last week on defense, with DE Shaun Merriman (foot), DE Luis Castillo (calf),
and S Eric Weddle (knee) out. Dallas (26.5 ppg TY at home) playing with great
confidence since losing its “Jerry’s World” opener 33-31 to the NYG.
(05-Dallas +4' 28-24...SR: Dallas 6-2)

*NY GIANTS 23 - Philadelphia 16—Philly youngsters Shady McCoy,
DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin & TE Brent Celek each scored a TD in the first
meeting, as the Eagles raced to a 30-7 half-time lead, handing New York its
third straight loss back on Nov. 1. But the G-Men finally shook their prolonged
slump last week, with RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw showing new
life, WR Hakeem Nicks & KR Domenik Hixon helping the attack, and young
MLB Jonathan Goff and the now-healthy S/CB Aaron Ross aiding the defense.
With Philly speedster Jackson questionable after his concussion, it looks like
payback for the Giants. TV—NBC
(09-PHI. 40-Nyg 17...N.21-17 P.24/180 N.32/141 N.20/39/2/215 P.17/23/0/211 P.2 N.1)
(08-Nyg 36-PHI. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(08-Phi. 20-NYG 14...P.24-14 P.40/144 N.24/88 P.19/30/0/187 N.13/27/0/123 P.0 N.0)
(08-Phi. 23-NYG 11...P.20-16 N.32/138 P.28/59 P.22/40/2/217 N.15/29/2/169 P.0 N.1)
(09-PHI. +1 40-17; 08-Gia. +3 36-31, Phi. +6' 20-14, Phi. +4 23-11 (Playoffs)...SR:
NY Giants 81-70-2)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 14

*SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Arizona 17—It’s desperation time for 5-7 San
Francisco, as Mike Singletary’s steady defense usually keeps the improving
49ers in the game (three of S.F.’s losses by 3 points; six losses by 7 points or
fewer). Niner QB Alex Smith (7 TDs, 1 int. the last three games) continues to
improve with the in-season addition of WR Michael Crabtree (32 recs. in 7
games) and more spread plays inserted in the offense. However, S.F. (6-2-1
vs. the spread last 9 at home) must find ways to get more opportunities for RB
Frank Gore (only 117 combined YR the last three games) to help keep the
Cards’ Warner & Co. off the field. CABLE TV—ESPN
(09-S. Fran. 20-ARIZ. 16...A.17-13 A.17/40 S.25/21 A.26/44/2/259 S.18/31/0/182 S.1 A.0)
(08-Ariz. 23-S. FRAN. 13...A.18-13 A.39/109 S.20/108 S.14/20/1/183 A.19/30/0/176 A.0 S.4)
(08-ARIZ. 29-S. Fran. 24...A.21-19 S.28/119 A.19/46 A.32/42/0/328 S.19/40/2/217 A.0 S.1)
(09-S. Fran. +5' 20-16; 08-Arizona -2' 23-13, ARIZONA -9' 29-24...SR: San Francisco 20-16

POWER SWEEP

KEY SELECTIONS

4* NEW ENGLAND over Carolina - Stat-wise NE has the edge with the #2 & #11 units (+9 TO’s) vs CAR with the #22 & #13 units (-6 TO’s) & have won & covered all 3 HG’s vs a non-div foes with a 37-10 avg score. LW was the 1st time since Wk 9 & 10 of 2006 that NE lost 2 games in a row & they blew out GB 35-0 (5.5 pt AF) afterwards. NE had its chances to win & cover vs MIA LW but were SOD at the MIA 6 & was int’d in the EZ on 1 of only 5 passes targeted at Moss. Afterwards Brady called out his teammates saying “at times I don’t think we fight very hard.” While CAR did beat TB 16-6 LW with Matt Moore (161 yds 60% 1 int) they were outgained 469-309 at home. CAR has avg’d 13 ppg the L3W & are last in the NFL with 31 giveaways. They now travel to NE who are 28-3 SU in 40˚ or colder weather with a 444-274 yd edge at home. Yes NE is 1-6 ATS as a DD HF & lacks a pass rush (#28 16 sacks) but this is Moore’s 5th start with a one dimensional offense vs a livid Brady at home & NE is the play. FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 Carolina 14

3* INDIANAPOLIS over Denver - IND is 5-2 SU & ATS vs DEN incl playoffs. While IND tied the 2007 Patriots 21 game win streak LW vs TEN, Caldwell has already said he isn’t going to deviate from how the team has approached the end of the season. However IND hasn’t grabbed the brass ring of a 1st RD bye yet. The IND line is often inflated due to the high level of play by Manning (307 ypg 72% 25-11) & opposing coaching staffs step up their game planning. IND does get a break as McDaniels will run many familiar concepts from his time with NE & the defense has faced Orton recently holding him to 150 yds (62%) in Wk 1 of 2008 vs CHI. DEN has rebounded after a 4 game losing streak & took advantage of a unorganized Giants squad & out muscled KC LW. In the Broncos L2 road test they were beaten 30-7 at BAL & lost 27-17 at WAS. Manning continues to get the publicity for IND but despite their defense having some attrition the unit has been stellar in the red zone & are the #2 scoring defense in the NFL having held 8 of 10 foes to 17 pts or less. DEN’s 8-4 record will ensure the Colts stay focused & they also have a nice scheduling edge being home for the 2nd straight week while DEN travels for a second straight. FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 Denver 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* MINNESOTA over Cincinnati - Statistically the Bengals look to be competitive here with the #18 & #4 units (+1 TO’s) vs MIN’s #5 & #9 units (+7 TO’s). However the Bengals are in a situation similar to the Giants prior to them playing the Saints. CIN has had the advantage of just facing 3 teams that are a combined 7-29 on the year losing SU to OAK & failing to cover all 3. CIN actually seems to be preparing for this game as they’ve kept the offense pretty basic with a 40-28 run pass ratio since the bye but they have only posted a 18-12 avg score. CIN’s #4 defense has been very impressive on 3rd Dns since the bye allowing 3 of 12 (25%) but PIT & BAL have strayed from their traditional strengths in the run game & CIN’s L3 foes are 31st, 32nd & 26th on offense. MIN was sluggish in their 1st road game in over a month & were outphysicaled in the game. MIN only had 99 yds in the 1st & 3rd Qtrs combined as teams run scripted plays in the 1st & have their halftime adjustments in the 3rd. Favre had his first real bad game of the year with 275 yds 67%) & a 2-2 ratio as both ints came in the 3Q allowing ARZ to turn them into 6 pts. Peterson only had 19 yds (1.5) but we aren’t convinced CIN who has allowed 71 ypg (3.6) the L8W vs rush offenses ranked 14th or lower is the real deal. We are aware that the dog is 11-0 ATS TY in CIN games but MIN has been a money maker and have been a H rated play six times on these pages. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24 Cincinnati 10

2* TENNESSEE over St Louis - TEN’s 5 game win streak came to an abrupt end LW vs IND as they fell behind 27-10 to the Colts at the half. Young tweaked his knee midway thru the 2Q & down 24-10 at the half wasn’t able to use his mobility to extend plays & only had 90 yds (48%) & 1 TD in the 2H. While Chris Johnson had 113 yds (4.2) his longest was 11 yds & he didn’t impact the game. TEN’s biggest problem was in the redzone as on 5 trips they came away with 2 TD, 1 FG & were SOD twice in the 4Q. TEN now faces STL headed by Boller who has lost 10 straight games as a starter (2-8 ATS) avg 187 ypg (60%) with an 8-12 ratio & 29-14 avg loss. Boller hasn’t had a ypa higher than 6.7 in his 4 starts as the Rams lack the ability to stretch the field with a very weak WR unit. Their only playmaker is RB Jackson who has avg’d 122 ypg (5.0) L6W. Minus the JAX game, TEN has allowed 83 ypg rushing (4.0) since Young took over. While LW’s loss to IND was a serious blow to TEN’s playoff hopes they can still snare a winning record for 2009 which would be very impressive considering their start. Johnson should have a solid day vs a STL defense allowing 161 ypg rushing (5.0) the L7W. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 28 St Louis 10

Pittsburgh at CLEVELAND - Thursday - PIT is 12-0 SU & 8-3-1 ATS vs CLE. The Steelers have massive stat edges here with the #7 & #5 units (-6 TO’s) vs CLE’s #32 & #32 (-12 TO’s). PIT has everything to play for here being 1-3 SU & ATS in div play & have BAL (3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS) still ahead of them regardless of the MNF results. The Browns have shown life & have now covered 3 straight & after gaining 439 yds in Detroit QB Quinn is showing a maturity as LW’s 271 (56%, 3-0 ratio) is the type of performance that will keep them in games. After Pittsburgh lost to CIN there was no way they could lose to KC. After they lost to KC they would certainly handle Baltimore. After losing to Baltimore poor Oakland would surely get crushed. After a 4th straight loss they surely REALLY have to crush CLE, right?

NY Jets 23 TAMPA BAY 16 - This is the 3rd road game in 4 Wks for the Jets who have extra rest which will help Sanchez (sprained PCL) who is ?? here. The Jets are a respectable 4-2 SU & ATS vs a non-div foe TY outgaining foes 331-266 with a 23-13 avg score. If the NO game is removed that improves to 349-251 with a 25-11 avg score. After a fast start raised their expectations of Sanchez (1-6 afterwards) the Jets went to the template BAL used LY with Flacco. The Jets have rushed the ball 82 times vs 35 pass att’s which allows them to set the tempo with a 307-185 yd edge in the 2 games & Thomas Jones (89 ypg 4.5) is quietly having a solid year. The Jets have rushed for over 104 yds in 11 of 12 games & over 120 yds in 8 games with a 201 (5.1) avg in those. TB is a team that can be run on #31 (160 ypg 4.8). TB has won the yardage battle in 2 games TY with ATL that was hit by inj’s & CAR LW with Moore in his 4th career start but they lost both SU. TY at home the Bucs have been outgained 395-253, outscored 34-26 & the #11 pass defense has given up a 14-7 ratio. The Jets have a massive edge with their #1 defense here (TB #26) with extra rest & are the play if & only if Sanchez starts otherwise pass.

KANSAS CITY 23 Buffalo 20 - The Bills handed the Chiefs a 54-31 loss LY as a 3 pt AF which set a KC record for most points allowed. KC turned the ball over 5 times which BUF converted into 20 pts & allowed 23 pts in the 2Q. BUF comes in off LW’s Thursday Night loss to the Jets which wasn’t as close as the 19-13 final score indicates. BUF was outgained 331-194 & gave up over 150 yds rushing for the 8th time TY (215 5.4 in those). BUF has been outgained 384-268 on the road TY (#28) but are a scrappy 4-2 ATS. LW KC was hammered by the Broncos as they were outgained 413-222 (9th game 400+ yds allowed) & at one point Cassel (84 yds 34% 0-2) was benched for poor play. Plagued by a slow WR unit that has been missing WR Bowe, the Chiefs only have 1 healthy RB in Jamaal Charles (69 ypg 4.7 since bye) who at 5-11 199 is much better suited for a 3rd Dn RB than a feature back behind a bad OL. BUF will also have extra time to break down film on Cassel (2-0 SU & ATS vs BUF with NE) who had 234 yds passing (68%) in the 1st meeting but only 78 yds (75%) in the 2nd which was played in 55 mph winds. This is a matchup where BUF has better talent at RB, WR, CB & on special teams & but we want to see where the line settles later in the week & call for KC (5-14 ATS at home) by a FG.

Green Bay 24 CHICAGO 14 - The Packers beat the Bears 21-15 on SNF to start the season thanks to a 50 yd TD pass by Rodgers to Greg Jennings with 1:11 left for the win. CHI had a 352-226 yd edge but Cutler threw 4 ints (& lost Urlacher - brkn wrist for the year) which GB only turned into 7 pts. Rodgers is now 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS vs CHI avg 224 ypg (66%) with a 5-2 ratio. GB is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS vs teams with a losing record with a 405-259 yd edge & 29-16 avg score. Rodgers has passed for 290 ypg (66%) with a 15-4 ratio in those & gets to face the #9 pass defense that isn’t as good as its ranking as teams can run on them (126 ypg 4.4) & they have a 21-11 ratio. CHI is 1-6 SU & ATS vs teams at or above .500 being outgained 369-307 and outscored 29-15. Cutler has avg’d 251 ypg (63%) with an 11-13 ratio but the defense has allowed 246 ypg (67%) with a 19-5 ratio. While there is no line due to MNF we’ll side with a Packer team in the playoff hunt with the #6 & #2 units (+17 TO’s) vs the Bears that have the #24 & #15 units (-4 TO’s).

New Orleans 37 ATLANTA 20 - The Saints beat the Falcons 35-27 on MNF in the 1st meeting TY but failed to cover as 11.5 pt HF’s. NO overcame 4 TO’s for the 2nd week in a row for the win but barely. ATL hit a 40 yd FG with :28 left, recovered the onside kick but Ryan was int’d on a deep pass. LW ATL was without 5 offensive starters vs PHI & were outgained 303-162 when PHI went up 27-0 then lost interest in the game. Redman had 235 yds (52%) with a 1-2 ratio & was only sacked twice which wasn’t bad considering he didn’t have LT Baker or RG Dahl. ATL had no offensive balance though as they were held to 61 yds (2.8) & had a 44-22 pass/rush ratio. NO sat 4 defensive starters LW vs WAS & were sluggish after NE on MNF. They overcame three 10 pt deficits in the game thanks to Brees who had 419 yds passing (71%) with a 2-1 ratio. Brees will also have an advantage here as he has seen the best of the Falcons defensive packages from the MNF game (308 yds 76% 2-1). This is the 4th road game in 5 Wks for NO & with Payton already saying he wants the 16-0 record the line will likely be very inflated here so we’ll call for NO by 17 as they are much healthier.

BALTIMORE 33 Detroit 10 - BAL is off LW’s MNF & are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS afterwards. BAL owns dominating stat edges here with the #13 & #8 units (+4 TO’s) vs the Lions #26 & #30 units (-8 TO’s). BAL is 9-5 ATS at home under Harbaugh outgaining foes 338-245 with a 24-12 avg score. DET has lost 19 straight road games (6-11-1 ATS) & TY they have been outgained 406-270 with a 36-16 avg score. BAL’s defense is much better at home where they have outgained foes 379-275 (350 ypg allowed away) with a 25-14 avg score. Flacco has avg’d 259 ypg (68%) with a 7-4 ratio at home & now faces a DET def allowing 294 ypg (71%) with a 13-5 ratio on the road. BAL has only played 3 games TY vs sub-.500 teams TY (KC & CLE) with a 418-178 yd edge & 29-9 avg score & covering all 3 as DD fav’s. DET has promise for 2010 but are too beat up & out of tricks at this point in the year & they are now 2-6 ATS as a DD dog.

JACKSONVILLE 30 Miami 17 - This is the 3rd road game in 4 Wks for MIA (9-4 ATS away) & 3rd home game in 4 Wks for JAX (2-11 ATS at home). MIA is off a huge win vs NE (2-9 ATS afterwards) where the Patriots self-destructed in the red zone. Henne had a career day with 335 yds (56%) & 2-1 ratio & the impulse is to jump on the Dolphins vs the #23 pass defense (20-12 ratio) that has only logged 12 sacks TY. This is MIA’s 3rd road game in 4 Wks & they travel to TEN next. JAX has also struggled as a HF (0-9 ATS) the L2Y & have a very young team overall. However, Del Rio has done a very good job coaching them up & were able to jump out to a 17-0 lead vs a more potent HOU offense LW (albeit Schaub was hurt). This is a big letdown spot for MIA here & these teams are statistically close with MIA having the #19 & #22 units (-2 TO’s) vs the Jags with the #15 & #19 units (-1 TO’s). Garrard is having a good season at home TY avg 284 ypg (66%) with a 7-4 ratio & he gets MIA’s #24 pass defense at home here.

HOUSTON 34 Seattle 23 - Gut check time for the Texans after dropping 4 straight division games including a pair at home with raucous crowds. The 8-8 stigma is again becoming a reality but despite QB Schuab being banged up we feel they’ll rebound. In the last 9 game stretch in which the Texans went 4-5 scoring was the issue as they were only outgained in 2 games losing the yardage battle to TEN by 4 yds & LW they were outgained by only 22 yds. Seattle got a home win LW getting a GW FG on the final play but they were outgained 356-292 vs SF. The Seahawks have struggled away from Qwest going 1-5 SU/ATS with the only win & cover at St Louis. They been outgained in all 6 road trips by an avg of 102 ypg & have allowed 71% completions. That bodes well for Hou WR Andre Johnson (1,044, 14.9) to stretch the field & open running lanes. In LY’s disappointing Texans season Houston was 3-6 but finished the year covering 6 of 7 while also covering 3 of their final 4 in 2007.

Washington 21 OAKLAND 17 - Quick name the team that has won 2 of its last 3 games against LY’s SB champ & an 9-3 Bengals squad. Now name the team that has lost 7 of 8. We’ll go one step further & point out that OAK had wins against Philly & KC while the Redskins have gone 0-3 against those foes. With those comparisons out of the way we’ll side with the team that has the better offense (21-31) the better defense (10-29) & has covered 4 straight by beating DEN, losing at DAL by ONE point, losing at PHI by a FG & failing to hold a 10 pt 4Q lead against the 11-0 Saints. There is no question that teams look past the Raiders but when they do win & garner the oppositions focus they are 0-3 SU/ATS TY losing by an avg score of 28-3. We’re getting great value with the Skins as in the L6W they’ve outgained 4 opponents & were only outgained by 78 yds at Philly (+9.5 pts) & outgained LW vs NO (+9.5) by 8 yards. OAK meanwhile has been outgained in 10 of 11 games & in 7 of those matchups they’ve lost the yardage battle by OVER 164 yds. In the Raiders (3-8 ATS at home after SU win) L5 home games their avg 254 ypg of offense & expect that to be the goal for the hungry & desperate Redskins.

DALLAS 24 San Diego 21 - Critics will be quick to point out the Cowboys’ December swoon under Romo (5-9 SU & 2-11-1 ATS) but he had a very good game vs the Giants LW with 392 yds (75%) & 3 TD’s. The play calling is once again going to come into question with a 23-55 run/pass ratio as DAL only had 45 yds rushing (2.0) & just 4 rushing FD’s. This & some very poor special teams play (2 missed FG’s & 79 yd PR) cost them the game. The Cowboys #20 pass defense (17-8 ratio) could be in for a long day here vs Rivers who since last Dec (9-7 ATS) has avg’d 273 ypg (65%) with a 32-7 ratio. This is why SD is not concerned with their #30 rush offense (89 ypg 3.3) as it’s just a support unit now. DAL is only 1-4 SU & ATS TY vs winning teams & their 5 SU home wins are vs teams that are 23-37 right now. SD was up 27-7 (354-218 yd edge) before letting CLE score 16 4Q pts LW. Both teams run the same basic defense as Phillips installed both so both QB’s will know what’s coming. This is SD’s 3rd road game in 4 Wks & its not known if any of the 3 defensive starters they rested (Merriman, Weddle & Castillo) will play here. We’ll call for DAL by 3 for now & watch the SD injury report.

Philadelphia at NY GIANTS - The Eagles had an easy time LW blowing out a Falcons team without 5 offensive starters 34-7 & went so far as to play to the home crowd & play Vick for half the 4Q. The Giants squeaked past DAL LW despite largely being outplayed as they were able to make enough plays in the redzone & on special teams for the win. The Giants are a game behind PHI/DAL & have the tiebreaker over the Cowboys but need a win here to avoid being swept by the Eagles. PHI’s 40-17 win as a 1 pt HD was the 1st game in 3 meetings decided by more than 6 pts. Get this play on the Northcoast Debit Card System for only $9 after 11:00 am on Sunday. Sunday Night Private Play Hotline Marquee Plays are currently 9-3 75% this year!!!

Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO - SF’s playoff chances took a big blow LW as they lost to a div foe despite Alex Smith’s career day with 310 yds (60%) with 2 TD’s. While the passing game is taking off the run game hasn’t as SF has had less than 70 yds rushing (58 ypg, 4.1) the L3W. ARZ is off a big revenge win vs MIN on SNF LW where Warner put 285 yds (69%) & 3 TD’s on the #9 defense. SF has been a thorn in the Cardinals side covering 3 of the L4, Singletary is 8-1-1 ATS as a dog & they will have a good home crowd edge here. Can the 49ers keep the Cardinals from wrapping up another NFC West Title here?

Logical Approach

The Need for a College Playoff - Our Annual Ranting, Raving, Proposal and Simulation

The regular college football season ends this weekend's traditional Army/Navy game but attention and focus has already turned to the upcoming Bowl season. An total of 34 Bowls will be played beginning with a pair of games on Saturday, December 19 and culminating in the determination of a 'paper' National Champion in the BCS Title game in Pasadena, California on Thursday, January 7, 2010 between Alabama and Texas. More than ONE HALF of all FBS (formerly Division I-A) teams (68 of 120) will be involved which means nearly 2 DOZEN teams will be "rewarded" for the mediocrity of 7-5 or 6-6 seasons.

We'll have more on the 2008-09 Bowl season next week when we present our Annual Conference Power Ratings and 5 Year Performance Summary along with some preliminary Bowl thoughts.

Each year the debate crops up on radio talk shows and in sporting establishments across the country as to which college football team is indeed the best in the land. Except in the rare instances in which there is only one major college unbeaten team heading into the Bowl season and emerging victorious, or the only two unbeaten teams face one another in a Bowl game, the discussions are often heated and there is no true 'correct' answer. Perhaps the only way to crown a truly legitimate National Champion is through a Playoff system such as is used in the FCS division of college football programs (formerly Division I-AA) and other levels of collegiate football as well as at all levels of college basketball. In fact, the FBS division (formerly Division I-A) is the only NCAA sport which does not determine its champion on the playing field . A myriad of reasons are cited as to why such a Playoff system is unfeasible, impractical or unworkable but the bottom line is that there are so many ties to the antiquated yet ever growing Bowls system that severing such long standing ties is not likely to be approved by the parties involved in the foreseeable future. Millions upon millions of dollars could be raised through such a Playoff system that could support many of the lesser non-revenue producing sports that are being phased out at many colleges. Part of the proceeds might be used to provide stipends to the players who are barred from working part-time jobs during the school year and thus are generally dependent only upon their families for financial assistance to go out on dates, see a movie and otherwise lead the typical life of a college student. Proceeds could also be used to maintain or resurrect programs that are not revenue producing but serve the needs of a significant portion of the student body.

For the past several seasons we have presented our format for determining a true college football champion on the playing field. It's not that difficult of a proposal to implement and it makes sense. It calls for a 16 team field that plays 15 total games over a four week period -- just as is done at the FCS (I-AA) level . There are 11 automatic bids that would go to the champions of all FBS (I-A) conferences plus 5 at large bids. The rationale is that if a conference meets the qualifications for being classified as FBS their champion should not be excluded. If the powers that be want to exclude the non-BCS conferences then knock them down to the FCS level where they can compete for a national title on the playing field. But under our proposal that would still leave 5 at-large bids for quality teams that for one reason or another might not have won their conference Championship (i.e. Iowa or Penn State in the Big 10, Nebraska in the Big 12, the Florida in the SEC, etc.).

One drawback of the long standing Bowl structure is that many teams are stale and rusty by the time they play their final game of the season. Two seasons ago Ohio State was inactive for 7 weeks and 3 days when they kicked it off in the BCS Title game against LSU. Other teams that play on New Years Day or just before often will have been off for 4weeks or more. The quality of play has to suffer after such a long period of inactivity.

A 16 team Playoff could begin around December 15, about a week or two after the regular season ends, even with several Conference Championship games. Play would occur over 4 consecutive weeks resulting in the Championship game being played in the first week of January, just after New Year's Day. And as to the NCAA's concern about athletes missing school time the facts are that most colleges are on break for much of the time between mid December and early January for 3 or 4 weeks.

It's tough for these latter two points to be reasonably argued against.

Towards that end we annually present a simulation of how such a Playoff might unfold and we again present such a simulation for the 2009 season. Our selection of the 16 teams would automatically include champions of all 11 FBS (I-A) conferences. Any conference meeting the requirement for FBS status should have a shot to win the title. Weaker conferences would have their Champions seeded lower than the better conferences' champions and likely even all 5 at large teams.

We would fill out the field with 5 at large teams with a provision that no conference could have more than one such at large team. In other words, of the 6 major/BCS conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC) only 5 of them would get a second team into the Playoffs. For this season it was determined that Clemson, Florida, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Stanford would get the at large bids, leaving out a second team from the Big 12 (sorry, Nebraska). The purpose of the 'one at large team per conference' rule is to keep the playing field as level as possible and not to overly bias the system towards conferences that may not play schedules in which every team plays one another. Sure, the at large bids are tough calls but the basic premise of the Playoff system is not which "other" teams are or are not included, but to make certain that the true contenders -- and the champions of ALL FBS conferences -- are included.

Here's how we seeded the teams (in parentheses) and how the first round played out. These first round games would be played at the home site of the higher seeded team.

Alabama (1) defeated Troy State (16) 36-12 Boise State (5) def Pittsburgh (12) 35-27
Texas (2) def Central Michigan (15) 35-21 Cincinnati (6) def Iowa (11) 34-20
TCU (3) def East Carolina (14) 40-16 Oregon (7) defeated Clemson (10) 34-29
Florida (4) def Stanford (13) 40-22 Ohio State (8) def Georgia Tech (9) 30-24

In years past our simulation has usually produced a first round upset or two but not this season. Perhaps we did a better job of seeding the teams this season! Next week we'll continue the simulation with the results of the quarter round matches which would be played at neutral sites. In the "real world" such a 16 team Playoff could follow a similar patter, playing first round games at the home of the higher seeded team and then playing the remainder of the Playoffs - a total of 7 additional games - using the existing Bowl structure with perhaps having 3 to 5 "permanent" Bowl venues and rotating the others among a half dozen or so attractive sites.

The college football regular season officially comes to a close this Saturday with just one game - the traditional Army/Navy game - taking place in Philadelphia. As such we do not have a College Selection of the Week or a Featured Selection on this contest. But here are some thoughts on the contest and how this game would be rated using the guidelines we've used throughout the season.

The "Rest" - Opinions Only

Navy - 14 over Army (at Philadelphia, PA) - Navy has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 including 7 in a row. Each of the 7 wins has been by at least a dozen points and 5 of the wins have been by at least 28 points, clearly showing the difference between these programs. At 5-6 Army is enjoying their best season in more than a decade and a win here gets them an invite to the Eagle Bank Bowl (a loss likely gives that bid to UCLA). There is a bond between the two coaches as first year Army boss Ellerson recruited Navy boss Niumatalolo to Hawaii as a player and the two have remained close over the years. But this is the Army/Navy rivalry and there's no reason to expect Navy to "take it easy" on the Cadets. Given the series history and the schedule both teams played this season (Navy defeated Air Force, Notre Dame and Wake Forest and was extremely close to winning at Ohio State in their opener) Navy deserves to again be a big favorite. Despite the improvement shown and strides made by Army this season, Navy should be able to put plenty of points on the board while defensively containing a limited Army offense that has scored under 20 points in 8 of 11 games. But this is just an opinion and not a recommended play. This writeup is provided simply because we have the space due to the end of the college regular season.

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: MINNESOTA - 7 over Cincinnati - Could this be a Super Bowl preview? Perhaps, as the 9-3 Bengals have been consistent all season and the Vikings lost for just the second time Sunday night in Arizona. Give all credit to the Bengals but we're learning that Division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore are down significantly from last season. Cincy has played well defensively all season but the offense has struggled in most games. Now they face a Vikings defense that was embarrassed in Arizona Sunday night. Both teams are all but certain to make the Playoffs but the Vikings figure to bring a greater degree of intensity to this game following last week's loss. They have the better balanced offense with Favre having perhaps the best season of his storied career. The offense has lost just 13 turnovers all season, second best in the league. And the Minny defense, thought statistically slightly more permissive than the Bengals', brings a ferocious pass rush that should disrupt the Cincy offense by pressuring QB Palmer. Both teams have much to recommend them but Minnesota's explosiveness is decisive. Minnesota wins 27-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

New Orleans - 9 ½ over ATLANTA - New Orleans was very fortunate to remain unbeaten in Washington last week. But good teams find a way to win these types of games as they possess the confidence to make big plays at critical times. Atlanta is banged up with QB Ryan and RB Turner very questionable for this game. Expect the Saints to return to their potent form of prior weeks after playing in tough conditions outdoors last week in Washington. The comfort of the Dome - even on the road - plays to the strength of the Saints' offense while the Atlanta backups figure to struggle against the improved New Orleans defense which leads the league with 36 takeaways this season. New Orleans has significant edges in the secondary statistics, especially in pass attempts and completions on both offense and defense. The Saints should be prepared for this game as the Falcons gave them a battle in New Orleans' 35-27 home win last month when they were favored by barely more than they are here. If Atlanta were fully healthy a solid case could be made for an outright upset. But not under these circumstances. New Orleans wins 37-23.

DALLAS - 3 over San Diego - This may be the week's most attractive matchup as both teams have much to play for if they are to make the Playoffs. Dallas'' well documented December woes surfaced again last week with a loss at the Giants that dropped the 'Boys into a first place tie with Philadelphia. San Diego has won 7 straight and is looking like the most serious challenger to Indianapolis' supremacy in the AFC. Despite better efforts from RB Tomlinson in recent weeks the Chargers still have at best an average running game, only twice rushing for more than 120 yards. The running game could be decisive as the Chargers' 89 rushing yards per game pales in comparison to Dallas 130 ypg (5.0 per carry). Dallas has a greater sense of urgency with a game at New Orleans next week and having the far tougher road to follow to the post season. Despite the loss at the Giants last week the 'Pokes have won 6 of their last 8 games. Much attention is being paid to Dallas' poor December play in recent seasons but that should not be a factor in handicapping this game. After losing the first game in their new stadium Dallas has won 5 straight home games, with all but their close call against Washington by at least 14 points. Dallas' fundamental edges key the win. Dallas wins 27-20.

SAN FRANCISCO + 3 over Arizona (Monday) - An Arizona win all but clinches the NFC West Title for a second straight season. The Cardinals were extremely impressive in defeating Minnesota last week at home where they are just 3-3. Arizona has been more impressive on the road where they've won 5 of 6 times this season. The 49ers upset Arizona in week 1 and played their best football in September. But they've dropped 6 of their last 8 to virtually fall out of Playoff contention although they are 4-2 at home. The 49ers figure to put forth their best effort of the season in front of the national Monday night audience. It's a great spot for the 49ers and a potential flat spot for Arizona following their big win over Minnesota. Statistically the teams are fairly even defensively with Arizona having a decided edge on offense. But that edge is largely in the passing game as the Cardinals rushing attack is as weak as San Francisco's. Interestingly, despite the poor but similar raw numbers, the Cardinals are allowing 4.4 yards per carry while the Niners allow just 3.6, second best in the league. And although the Cards have the better QB in Warner, the Niners' Smith has shown great progress since taking over the starting job from Hill earlier this season. He did not play against the Cards in the opening day win. The Niners should make the most of their time in the spotlight in what has turned out to be a slightly more disappointing season than was expected in pre season. San Francisco wins 27-23.

Best of the Rest (Opinions) Denver + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS N Y Jets - 3 ½ over TAMPA BAY
Green Bay - 3 over CHICAGO Seattle + 6 over HOUSTON
Washington - 1 over OAKLAND N Y GIANTS - 1 over Philadelphia

The Rest (Leans) Pittsburgh - 10 over CLEVELAND (Thursday) Buffalo Pick 'em over KANSAS CITY
Detroit + 13 ½ over BALTIMORE Miami + 2 ½ over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND - 13 ½ over Carolina TENNESSEE - 13 ½ over St Louis

Best of the NFL Totals Denver/Indianapolis UNDER 44 Buffalo/Kansas City UNDER 37 ½
New Orleans/Atlanta OVER 51 Detroit/Baltimore UNDER 42
Carolina/New England OVER 44 St Louis/Tennessee UNDER 41 ½
Washington/Oakland UNDER 37 Arizona/San Francisco OVER 44 ½

Money Line Recommendations Pro: Miami Seattle DALLAS SAN FRANCISCO

POINTWISE

Pittsburgh 20 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:20 - NFL) -- Our figuring that the Steelers
would put a quick end to their 3-game slide, with a resounding rout of Oakland
sure didn't pan out. Now 4 straight losses, 2 of which came vs Chiefs & Raiders
(combined 7-17) by same 27-24 score. Browns own worst "O" in NFL, & forced
just 1 punt LW, but posted 23 pts vs streaking Chargers (10 in final 2 minutes).
Steelers 4-10 ATS lately, but 22-19 ATS on the division road. Browns have 27-13
ppg deficit at home, & rank 30th on "D". But DD dogs have turned it all around.

INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Denver 24 - (1:00) -- It continues. Colts now 21-0 SU in
regular season play, tying the all-time record set by the '06-'08 Pats. But thru it
all, not many cakewalks. As a matter of fact, LW's 27-17 win marked Indy's
largest margin since Oct. Enter the Broncos, who've been the epitome of the
streak squad all year. Check 383-151 RY edge past 2 wks. Interesting sidebar
shows that LY, Orton led Chicago to a 29-13 win over the Colts in the first game
ever played in Lucas Oil Stadium. The visitor is 16-5 ATS during this Indy run.

MINNESOTA 22 - Cincinnati 19 - (1:00) -- Well, Favre's dream season took a
decided turn for the worse in LW's embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. A quick
7-0 lead turned into a 30-10 deficit, before a meaningless TD in the final 1:20.
Brett: just 3 INTs in his first 11 games, but picked off twice & sacked 3 times by
'Zona. And check Peterson: just 19 RYs on 13 carries. Should regroup here,
but Cincy is 9-2 SU lately, & 6th in total "D". And the dog is a perfect 11-0 ATS
in Bengal games TY. And Minny is 0-10 ATS play as a favorite off being upset.

New York Jets 20 - TAMPA BAY 10- (1:00) -- No early line posted on this one,
due to Sanchez' knee injury. But Jets are in off a 249-RY output vs hapless run
"D" of the Bills, & are just a game back in the Wild Card chase. The 1-11 Bucs
(1-15 since LY) bring the 29th rated rushing "D" into this contest, so NY could
have another overland field day. And note NY's 2nd rated "D" vs Tampa's 29th
ranked "O". Bucs moved it vs Panthers, but Freeman more than neutralized
that effort with 5 INTs. Tampa covered last non-division HG by 19½. Not here.

Buffalo 23 - KANSAS CITY 16 - (1:00) -- Two teams going nowhere. Bills still
can't contain the run, allowing >100 RYs in each of their last 10 games, while
averaging only 12.3 ppg in 9 of their last 10 tilts. But the Chiefs have seen their
3-gm ATS run snapped with a pair of losses by strikingly similar 43-14, 44-13
scores. And Cassel benched LW: 10-of-29; 2 INTs; & QB rating of 14.2. These
2 ceded 249 & 245 RYs LW, but the visitor is 15-4 & 26-12 ATS in their games.
KC hasn't covered as a chalk since '06. Bills 13-1 ATS as RDs vs <.500 foes.

Green Bay 24 - CHICAGO 13 - (1:00) -- Revenge game for Bears, who snapped
4-game slide, with 17-9 win over the 1-11 Rams. No INTs for Cutler for the first
time in 8 games, but note that he hasn't reached 200 PYs the last 3 wks, & has
20 picks on the year. Not the best of prospects vs the Packers, who have a
+17 TO edge thus far. Even with LW's win, Chicago failed to top 17 pts for the
7th time TY. GreenBay 19-6 ATS away, while Chicago 2-8 ATS as series host.

New Orleans 34 - ATLANTA 17 - (1:00) -- Saints nearly let it get away, before
semi-miraculous win over 'Skins, in which they allowed 28 FDs & 455 yds to
NFL's 25th ranked "O". Brees last 2 wks: 35-of-49 & 7/1. Now 29/10 for the
year. Saints barely got past Falcons in 1st meeting, but Atlanta was healthy for
that encounter, & are presently going it without either Ryan or Turner, suffering
1st home loss in 34-7 debacle vs the Eagles. Falcs just 90, 75, & 61 RYs last
3 wks. Saints a 13-4 ATS division RF, & won first division RG, by a 38-7 score.

BALTIMORE 23 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- The futility of the Lions just continues on.
The worst "D" in the NFL, altho it did hold the Bengals to 23 pts, in LW's 3-pt
cover. Detroit has now dropped 26-of-28 games on the field, while amassing 0,
10, 10, 12, & 13 pts in 5 of its last 7 outings. And Stafford is once again hurting
(shoulder). Note that he has either passed or run for at least 1 TD in all 10 of
his starts. Lions catch Ravens off Colts, Steeler, & Packers, so we steer clear.

Miami 23 - JACKSONVILLE 20 - (1:00) -- Was it really 10 years ago, that the
Jags beat the Fish, 62-7, in Dan Marino's final game? Both alive in Wild Card
chase, altho Dolphins' case is the more desperate. Overcame a 21-10 deficit
vs the Pats, behind 355 PYs from Henne. Note Sparano a perfect 5-0 SU in
Dec. J'ville is on a 7-3 SU run, after opening at 0-2, but 5 Jag wins have come
by just 3, 3, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so note the dog a perfect 5-0 ATS in their HGs. And
the Jags are 0-6 ATS off a SU division home win. Miami in a mild upset here.

NEW ENGLAND 41 - Carolina 17 - (1:00) -- We are fully aware of the fact that
the DD chalk ruled for the first half of this NFL season, but not so over the last
month or so. Still, catching the Pats off their first 2-game losing streak in more
than 3 years isn't the healthiest of propositions for the Panthers. No Delhomme
or DeAngelo for Carolina in its win over the Bucs, despite a 469-309 yd deficit
(5 picks). Pats are13-3 ATS off a SU chalk loss, as well as 43-17 ATS as a
non-division HF. And they won thier last non-division HG 59-0 (49½ pt cover).

HOUSTON 27 - Seattle 16 - (1:00) -- Pair of 5-7 squads here, with the Texans on
4-game slide, after opening at 5-3. Six TOs for Houston last 2 wks, with 3 INTs
from 3 different tossers in loss to J'ville. Can't run (#29), but neither can the
Seahawks (#27), who took Niners on the final play LW. The visitor is 8-3-1 ATS
in Houston games, but Texans are 8-1 ATS as Dec hosts off a SU loss. Seattle
is 4-13 ATS on the AFC road, as well as 9-15 ATS as a non-division RD. And
despite recent demise, Houston is +36 pts ATS in its last 9 games. Home call.

TENNESSEE 31 - St Louis 10 - (4:05) -- Hard to believe that it's been a decade
since these 2 met in the Super Bowl. Titans' 5-game run is now history, despite
more FDs & yds than the Colts. Now 2 back in the Wild Card chase, so still a
mild hope. Have the firepower to do it up right, with Johnson reaching the 100
RY mark the last 7 games. And as far as the DD spot is concerned, note that
Tenn is 8-0 ATS as a Dec DD favorite vs a <.500 opponent, & the 1-11 Rams
certainly fill that particular bill. And the Titans are 15-5 ATS hosting the NFC.

Washington 20 - OAKLAND 19 - (4:05) -- Winning breeds winning, & losing -
well, you know the rest. Just ask the 'Skins who've dropped their last 3 by a
combined 7 pts (4 in regulation). Missed winning 23-yd FG in final 2 minutes,
in eventual OT loss to the Saints, but note gaining 28 FDs & 455 yds. Raiders
may have found their savior in Gradkowski, who merely tossed 3 TD passes in
the 4th quarter vs Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 in final 0:09 (1st time they topped
20 pts all yr). But Oakland is 2-13 ATS as a Dec HF vs losing teams. To wire.

DALLAS 27 - San Diego 26 - (4:15) -- Seven straight wins for the Chargers, who
couldn't hold a 27-7 lead over the lowly Browns, who had dropped 12 of their
previous 14 games by 20 ppg. This should be a good one, as the both Rivers
& Romo are cooking (21/6 & 20/7, respectively). Just 1 punt for SanDiego LW,
while the 'Boys held 27-15 FD & 424-337 yd edges over the Giants in 31-24
loss. Dallas hasn't had a winning record in Dec since '01, & SanDiego is +47½
pts ATS last 4 RGs. But Phillips is 8-1 ATS home vs foes off 2 SU/ATS wins.

Philadelphia 30 - NEW YORK GIANTS 24 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Well, the Giants
finally brought home the bacon, with just their 2nd win (& 1st cover) since Oct
11th, but it wasn't pretty. They took Dallas, thanks to the big play, namely a 74
yd TD catch by Jacobs, along with a 79-yd punt return. NY has run for just 82
ypg the last 3 wks, while allowing 31 ppg in its last 7 games. The Eagles took
2 games here LY (20-14 & 23-11), & already have posted a 40-17 win over NY
this season. Philly is 23-11 ATS on the division road, & an 18-8 ATS RD off a
SU win. NY counters with its 30-12 ATS log at home off a home win. Not enuff.

Arizona 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Extremely difficult bucking
either of these 2 squads. The Niners have been "money" since the arrival of Mike
Singletary, & are just 15 pts from a 17-2 ATS run. In off yet another wrenching
defeat (final play), with 4 of their 7 setbacks coming by just 3, 3, 4, & 3 pts. And
they are 5-1-1 ATS at home lately, by 70 pts. Smith has opened it up the past 2
wks (54-of-86, & 4 TDs), so offensive awakening. But the Cards are off to their
best start since 1976. Warner LW vs then 10-1 Vikes: 22-of-32 & 3/0 (16½ pt
cover). 'Zona +100½ pts ATS in its last 8 RGs, & has the revenge hammer here.