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blade

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CKO

11* WASHINGTON over *Cincinnati
WASHINGTON 27 - *Cincinnati 10

Fundamentally-sound, strong-in-the-pits Washington eager to be facing one of the NFL’s struggling teams after
having to play seven games so far vs. powerful NFC East rivals NYG, Dallas & Philly, plus Pittsburgh and Baltimore.Things promise to go much better vs. the 1-11-1 Bengals and their backup QB, shuffled OL, and injury-thinned defense. Even if Clinton Portis is sidelined for the Skins, LaDell Betts (1154 YR in 2006) is an excellent backup.Every win crucial for Skins’ fading playoff chances.

10* *BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh
*BALTIMORE 23 - Pittsburgh 10

It was just about this time of the year in 2007 that the Ravens nearly defeated the then-undefeated New England Patriots in Baltimore, losing only after a series of controversial late calls on a cold and windy night. This year, the Raven defense is healthier, and the offense is vastly improved, thanks to rookie QB Joe Flacco and poised, clever,rookie HC John Harbaugh. Rough-tough Baltimore is 4-2 SU last 6 meetings vs. Pittsburgh.

NINE-RATED GAME: CHICAGO (-3) vs. New Orleans (THURSDAY NIGHT)—Saints offense drops off markedly out of the dome; N.O.injury-riddled on defense...ATLANTA (-3; estimated) vs. Tampa Bay—In hotly-contested NFC playoff race, improved, home-lovin’ Falcs might have to kiss their hopes good-by if they don’t win this one.

Posted : December 9, 2008 7:50 am

blade

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2-Minute Handicap

Thursday, Dec. 11th

New Orleans 10-2 A aft Falcons (1-0 this year)… 1-3 UNDER Game Fourteen

CHICAGO 10-2 Game Fourteen

Sunday, Dec. 14th

Green Bay 9-3 Game Fourteen

JACKSONVILLE 8-0 dogs off SU A loss… 6-0 dogs vs opp off SU fav loss… 7-1 off DD SU NFC loss (0-1 this year)… DEL RIO: 7-0 H off BB SU losses… 4-1 OVER Game Fourteen

Detroit 1-8 < .500 off div vs opp who allowed off DD SU win vs NFC opp (0-1 this year)… 0-6 off DD ATS win & scored 35 > pts LG… 0-5 off DD ATS win vs opp w/rev (0-1 this year)… 0-5 UNDER Game Fourteen

Washington 4-0 Game Fourteen… 0-9 favs off DD SU loss bef BB NFC games… 0-8 off DD SU AFC loss vs non div opp

CINCINNATI DEC: 10-0 opp… 1-6 Game Fourteen… 1-6 dogs 4 > pts bef Browns (1-0 this year)

Tampa Bay 0-10 off SU dog win vs opp off SU dog win… DEC: 1-10 .500 > A off div…

ATLANTA SERIES: 0-3 L3 (0-1 this year)… 0-9 Game Fourteen

San Francisco SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 3-0 L3 A… 3-0 Game Fourteen… 0-10 A off BB ATS wins vs non div opp (0-2 this year)… 0-9 off BB SU wins vs .500 > opp off DD SU win… 1-9 off BB SU wins vs .500 > opp… DEC: 2-7 dogs off SU win … 3-11 dogs off non div game vs AFC opp (2-1 this year)… 3-16 A w/rev vs .500 > opp off DD SU win… 3-15 A vs opp off BB SU wins & ATS win LG… 2-10 A vs non div opp off div… 3-13 off SU win vs opp off SU dog win

MIAMI 4-0 H vs opp off SU dog win w/rev… 0-6 favs 6 > pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins… 2-18 HF’s 7 > pts off SU win (0-2 this year)… DEC: 1-8 H off SU dog win… 3-16 H off SU dog & BB wins (0-1 this year)… 4-1 OVER Game Fourteen

Seattle SERIES: 3-0 L3 (1-0 this year)… DEC: 10-0 dogs off non div vs div opp… 0-4 Game Fourteen

ST. LOUIS 12-1 H w/rev off div… 0-11 HD’s 2nd BB div games… 1-12 < .500 vs div opp (0-4 this year)… 2-16 opp off SU win… 8-2 H off DD SU NFC win vs AFC opp… 6-1 off DD SU win vs div opp off BB SUATS wins… 0-10 w/rev off BB SUATS wins… 1-4 Game Fourteen

Denver SHANAHAN: 12-4 RD off BB SU wins vs .500 > opp… 7-1 OVER Game Fourteen

CAROLINA 3-1 Game Fourteen… 1-10 H off SU win vs .500 > opp who won < 9 games LY

San Diego DEC: 16-1 favs vs < .500 opp off SU loss… TURNER: 19-4 off DD SU win vs opp w/rev (1-1 this year)… 2-7 UNDER Game Fourteen

KANSAS CITY DEC: 11-1 H w/rev… DEC: 8-1 non div opp… 1-7 SUATS LRG… 2-13 RD’s off BB SU wins vs non div NFC opp… DEC: 1-6 dogs off BB SU wins… 4-1 OVER Game Fourteen

ARIZONA 7-1 favs vs opp off 3 SU wins… DEC: 7-1 H vs opp off BB SU wins… 0-8 aft Rams vs non div opp… 0-3 Game Fourteen… DEC: 1-7 when W/L % > .500

New England DEC: 1-9 A vs opp off SU loss… 4-10 Game Fourteen

Monday, Dec. 15th

Cleveland 9-0 off SU loss 17 > pts (2-0 this year)… 3-0 Game Fourteen

PHILADELPHIA 13-2 aft Giants (0-1 this year)… 5-1 Game Fourteen… 4-1 Mondays… 0-10 favs off BB SU wins vs AFC opp… 1-10 favs off SU win vs AFC North… 3-10 H vs AFC opp (1-0 this year)

Posted : December 9, 2008 8:10 am

blade

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Power Sweep

4* Arizona 31-17
3* Tenn. 34-20
3* San Fran 13 (+) 14
2* Indy. 34-10

3* Packers O 45
3* Chargers U47
3* Seattle O44
2* Titans O 45
2* 49's U43

Angles 3 Tenn, 3 New England

System Play Indy.

Posted : December 9, 2008 4:45 pm

blade

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Topic starter

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
GREEN BAY by 13 over Jacksonville
ARIZONA by 14 over Minnesota
UNDER the total in the Cleveland-Philadelphia game (Monday)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11
*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the
L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title
game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has
19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted
Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the
offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB
Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities
for Kyle Orton. TV—NFL NETWORK

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14

Green Bay 27 - JACKSONVILLE 14—Loss of Pro Bowl-caliber CB
Rashean Mathis another major blow in the star-crossed season of the Jaguars
(0-6 vs. the spread at home TY!), especially vs. G.B.’s deep crew of talented
wideouts. Meanwhile, Packers—although playoff hopes tiny—showing enough
young depth at CB that they were thinking of moving Charles Woodson to
safety, where his good tackling and nose for the ball might allow him to make
more impact plays for fading defense. Lacking quality wideouts and a healthy
OL, Jacksonville QB Garrard getting hounded (36 sacks) while scrambling to find receivers.

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - Detroit 10—The winless ‘76 Tampa Bay Bucs getting
increasingly nervous, as Detroit’s narrow miss last week vs. Minnesota might
have been the Lions’ best chance to avoid an 0-16 mark and keep the
expansion 0-14 Bucs in the record book. Somewhat surprisingly, Detroit has
covered its last 4 on the road. But there’s little chance the Lions will catch hot,
in-sync, playoff-minded Indy (6 straight wins) overlooking them. The Colts
appear to be themselves again, especially with the defense not allowing a TD
the last two weeks and Peyton Manning in tune again with Marvin Harrison (67-
yard TDC last week vs. Cincy).

Washington 21 - CINCINNATI 10—Only a 21-19 victory over Jacksonville
Nov. 2 and an ugly tie 2 weeks later vs. Philly are keeping the Bengals from riding
the same train to infamy being driven in 2008 by the Detroit Lions. Ryan Fitzpatrick
(59%, 6 TDs, 9 ints.), while he hasn’t exactly self-destructed, is only 2-7 vs. the
spread TY. Although the Redskins (1-7 vs. spread last 8 overall) still looking for
more impact plays on defense, they run better and defend so much better than
Cincy (only 13 sacks TY) that it’s tough to recommend mistake-prone host.

MIAMI 20 - San Francisco 19—Miami, now sharing first place (!) in the AFC
East, has done many things well during its turnaround campaign, including
valuing the ball and committing the fewest TOs (10) through the first 3/4 of the
season. However, the reborn Dolphins have not dominated at home, going only
2-5 vs. the spread. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ Mike Singletary has turned out to be
S.F.’s version of Miami’s Tony Sparano, with the Niners going 3-2 SU and 4-1
vs. the spread since Singletary’s debut game, after which the former Bears’
MLB shouted, “We want winners!” (04-Miami +1 24-17...SR: EVEN 5-5)

CAROLINA 23 - Denver 21—Bad matchup for both defenses? Carolina RBs
DeAngelo Williams (4.9 ypc) & Jonathan Stewart (4.6 ypc) had rushed for a
combined 1539 yards prior to their Monday night affair with Tampa Bay. Now
they face the Broncos’ 28th-ranked rush defense. However, Denver’s quick,
vastly-underrated OL has allowed only 8 sacks all year! The Broncs, with the
talented Jay Cutler learning steadily, have won their last three road games. And
the underdog is 10-1 in the Broncs’ last 11 contests overall!

ARIZONA 31 - Minnesota 17—Cardinals have clinched their first
divisional crown in 33 years. But expect no let-up, as second-year HC Ken
Whisenhunt has done an excellent job fostering team chemistry despite
management’s contract squabbles with players, the Leinart-Warner QB
question, and the benching of veteran RB Edgerrin James. If it’s
Tarvaris Jackson at QB for Gus Frerotte (check status), he’ll have
loads of problems dealing with Arizona S Adrian Wilson. Cards’ only
home loss TY was vs. the mighty Giants. Arizona 7-1 “over” last 8
home.

New England 24 - OAKLAND 12—NFL’s best HC vs. its worst? Best
organization vs. the worst? Too bad the oddsmakers can equalize matters so
easily with the stroke of a pencil. And that the injury gods can strike down key
players (such as Tom Brady and several top Patriot defenders). But Oakland’s
receivers not great, its QBs are still learning, and rookie RB Darren McFadden
still battling turf toe. Will side with offensively-potent Pats, and count on a
couple Raider mistakes. (05-N. ENG. -7' 30-20...SR: EVEN 15-15-1)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15

UNDER THE TOTAL *PHILADELPHIA 24 - Cleveland 6—Doubledigit
favorites weren’t doing so well in the NFL TY until a good showing last
week. So, with Philly arguably playing some of its best ball of 2008 the last two
weeks, and with Cleveland down to its third-team QB and producing 6, 6 & 9
points the last three games, prefer to lay the lumber. Eagles desperate for
every win, and Ken Dorsey lacks mobility vs. Philly’s rotating DLmen. Philly
has five DD wins TY, while the prognosis is not good for Romeo Crennel’s
continuation as Browns’ HC. Cleveland 8-1 “under” away; Birds 6-2 “under”
last 8 at Linc. CABLE TV—ESPN (04-Philadelphia -7 34-31 (OT)...SR:
Cleveland 31-14-1)

Posted : December 9, 2008 8:32 pm

blade

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Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

Nelly's Greensheet

RATING 5 SAN DIEGO (-5) over Kansas City
RATING 4 NY GIANTS (+3) over Dallas
RATING 3 WASHINGTON (-6½) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 BALTIMORE (-1½) over Pittsburgh
RATING 1 ATLANTA (NL) over Tampa Bay

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2008

CHICAGO (-3) New Orleans (45) 7:15 PM
The playoff hopes for these teams might appear slim but the
opportunities will be there for the winner of this game as many of the
other Wild Card contenders will face tougher closing schedules. The
Bears have gone 0-3 against the NFC South this season but the three
games were lost by a combined total of eight points. New Orleans has
now won three of the last four with covers in all four of those games.
Despite being a popular team with a bad defense that has
underachieved in terms of preseason projections, the Saints are
somehow 9-4 ATS on the year, but consider that three covers came by a
point or less. The Bears pass defense has not performed well and the
Saints should be able to play on. SAINTS BY 7

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2008

Green Bay (-1) JACKSONVILLE (45) 12:00 PM
With three straight losses the Packers have played their way out of the
playoff picture but Jacksonville is a tough team to back, sitting at 3-10
ATS on the season. The Jaguars have lost outright in six of the past
seven games with the lone win coming against the winless Lions.
Jacksonville has not covered in any home game this season and the
Green Bay offense has shown much more potential, scoring at least 21
points in each of the last five despite only one win. PACKERS BY 6

INDIANAPOLIS (-16½) Detroit (45½) 12:00 PM
The Colts are back in the public eye and appear to be in command of a
wild card spot. Indianapolis won big last week with turnover help but the
previous five wins all came by six points or less. Detroit has covered in
five of the last nine games and the Lions played inspired ball last week
despite another tough loss. The Lions are 9-1 ATS the last ten instances
when getting double-digits and the Colts are overvalued. COLTS BY 10

Washington (-6½) CINCINNATI (36) 12:00 PM
The Redskins have now lost four of the last five games but the Redskins
could win out through a favorable schedule to finish 10-6 and that might
be enough to make the playoffs. Each of the last four losses came
against quality opponents and although the Redskins have not delivered
blowouts they have won four of the last five road games. Cincinnati
keeps delivering turnovers and the Bengals have not topped 13 points in
any of the last four games. REDKSKINS BY 10

ATLANTA (NL) Tampa Bay 12:00 PM
This is a tough game to handicap without Monday’s result as Tampa Bay
and Carolina face the huge first place showdown. Atlanta let a key game
slip away last week but this could be an opportunity to catch Tampa Bay
even though the Bucs have great defensive numbers. Atlanta has the
second best rushing offense in the NFL and the Falcons have only lost
once at home all season. FALCONS BY 7

MIAMI (-6½) San Francisco (43) 12:00 PM
This is a tough travel spot for the 49ers back on the East Coast for the
second time in three weeks. The 49ers have now won three of the last
four games however, beating AFC East teams each of the last two
weeks. Last week’s win was huge for Miami given the extra attention of
the international stage and the division rival and this could be a flat spot
for the Dolphins after tying of the division lead. Miami is winning games
but is just 2-5 ATS at home and does not pull away. DOLPHINS BY 3

ST. LOUIS (NL) Seattle 12:00 PM
Although Seattle lost last week the Seahawks had one of their better
offensive games and nearly knocked off New England. The Rams have
now lost seven in a row and the offense has not topped 16 points in any
of the last six games. Home field has not meant much in this series that
Seattle has had recent control over. Seattle has scored 68 more points
than the Rams while allowing 59 fewer points so far this season so these
teams have not been as equal as the matching 2-11 records appear.
Even without Hasselbeck Seattle has a better shot. SEAHAWKS BY 7

NEW YORK JETS (NL) Buffalo 12:00 PM
The Bills have out-scored opponents by four points despite a losing
record. Buffalo lost at home to the Jets in a nightmare game featuring
turnovers and the Bills offense has not been the same since. Buffalo has
scored just three points in each of the last two games but the Jets have
lost back-to-back games as favorites. Look for the Bills to put up a good
fight in this division game even if QB Edwards is unable to go again. The
Jets have not been impressive outside a few big wins. JETS BY 3

Tennessee (-3) HOUSTON (44) 12:00 PM
Houston has not given up on the season and the Texans have now won
three consecutive games. Much like last season Houston is playing well
late in the year and this game tests how far that progress has taken
them to build for next season. The Titans continue to cruise as last
week’s win was dominant in the box score and the scoreboard.
Tennessee has not lost S/U or ATS on the road this season but there is
little urgency for the Titans in this match-up. The Texans have had some
success as a home underdog but it is tough to trust the Texans defense
as several opponents have posted big numbers. TITANS BY 7

BALTIMORE (-1½) Pittsburgh (33) 3:15 PM
This is a huge game as Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a win but
the loser could be in line for a tumble to a questionable playoff position.
Both teams face very tough road games next on the schedule, making
this game even more critical. The first meeting between these teams
was a 3-point game defensively these teams have nearly identical
numbers, both sitting on top of the league. Baltimore has actually had
the higher-scoring offense this season and the Ravens have been very
tough at home this year with only one loss. Pittsburgh was very lucky to
win last week and the Steelers may be vulnerable. RAVENS BY 4

CAROLINA (NL) Denver 3:15 PM
Denver has not officially wrapped up the AFC West and the things could
get interesting in the coming weeks if San Diego can apply some
pressure. The Broncos have been out-scored on the year but Denver
has delivered wins in four of the last five games, including three outright
wins on the road as underdogs. The Panthers could face a letdown after
last week’s big game and it will be a very tough finish. BRONCOS BY 3

San Diego (-5) KANSAS CITY (46) 3:15 PM
The Chargers finally delivered a strong offensive game last week and
none of San Diego’s eight losses came against a team that is more than
one-game below .500. The first meeting between these teams was a
nail-bitter as the Chiefs went for a 2-point conversion at the end but
missed. San Diego has a great record as a road favorite and although
one win does not impress us Kansas City seems to find ways to lose
despite showing some positive signs. CHARGERS BY 14

ARIZONA (NL) Minnesota 3:05 PM
The Vikings are banged up but back-up QB Jackson did play well in
relief last week. The Vikings got by the winless Lions but this is a key
game for Minnesota as the final two games could be very tough.
Although this is a tough venue Arizona is tough to trust having locked up
a historic division title last week. The Cardinals have only two wins over
winning teams this season. VIKINGS BY 4

New England (-7) OAKLAND (40) 3:15 PM
The Patriots nearly got caught last week and facing a second straight
game out West is a tough situation. The Raiders appear to have quit,
giving little last week despite facing a natural division rival. Oakland has
been out-scored by 120 points on the season and the Raiders have
covered in just five games all season. There should be no lack of focus
for New England given the tight division race. PATRIOTS BY 13

DALLAS (-3) NY Giants (44) 7:15 PM
The Giants have clinched the NFC East but this is not the type of team
that will be content to coast to the finish. After last week’s ugly loss New
York will be ready to play this week and Dallas could be the flat team
after blowing a game they appeared to have locked up. The Giants won
easily the first time these teams met and although the Cowboys have
been impressive on the defensive end the history of poor late season
play and the mistakes from QB Romo will be costly. GIANTS BY 10

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2008

PHILADELPHIA (-14) Cleveland (37½) 7:35 PM
The recent distractions caught up to the Giants last week and
Philadelphia took advantage with a key win that keeps the Eagles in the
playoff chase. The Browns were worked last week but Cleveland has
been competitive in several games against quality teams. Cleveland
could be in better shape this week with more time for QB Dorsey and
two big wins from the Eagles should not mask a season or mediocrity
and mistakes from Philadelphia. EAGLES BY 7

Posted : December 9, 2008 8:34 pm

blade

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Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

Pointwise NFL

2--WASHINGTON over Cincinnati 30-7
3--ATLANTA over Tampa Bay 23-10
4--SAN FRANCISCO over Miami 20-19
5--TENNESSEE over Houston 30-17
5--SAN DIEGO over Kansas City 31-17

THURSDAY
CHICAGO 30 - New Orleans 24 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Double revenger for the Saints,
who lost '06 Title Game to the Bears, 39-14, & again LY, 33-25. Thus, this is the
3rd straight series traveller for NewOrleans. Saints still in it (barely), behind Drew,
as well as Thomas & Bush, who posted 6.4 & 8.0 ypr efforts in escape vs Falcons.
Realize Saints are 6-1 ATS in non-division play, but can't ignore solid bounceback
effort of Bears in rout of Jags, including decent "D" for a change. The chalk has
covered last 5 Chicago games by 74 pts ATS, & the Bears are 14-6 ATS as Dec
HFs. Warm weather guests are at a distinct disadvantage, so a narrow Bear call.

SUNDAY

Green Bay 24 - JACKSONVILLE 20 - (1:00) -- These 2 are going nowhere. Try
3 straight losses for the Packers, and 4 straight setbacks for the Jags. Against
the Bears, J'Ville went 3-&-out on 5 of their 6 first half possessions, & that was
that. Back home, but things are hardly improved, as the Jags have a 25-18 ppg
deficit as hosts thus far. Rank just 16th in rushing, & Garrard down to earth
with 11/10 TDs to INTs, after LY's brilliance. Pack seeking a "D" after allowing
549 yds hosting the Texans, with all of their TDs following Houston TOs. GBay
is 10-4 ATS off a loss of <4 pts, but Jags 18-8 ATS hosting NFC. Steer clear.

INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Detroit 20 - (1:00) -- Six straight wins for the Colts, but just
3 covers, with LW's rout of woeful Bengals going against the norm, as Indy's
previous 5 wins were decided by <7 pts SU. By the way, this marks the Colts'
5th consecutive year with at least a 6-game run. Manning is heating up, & note
Indy with 50 FDs in its last 2 HGs. Just 3 more losses, & the Lions will become
the only team to go 0-16 ('76 Bucs were 0-14), & they have the talent to do it.
Have yet to outrush a foe, & rank 31st on "D", as well as 30th on "O". But note
the visitor covering 9 of Lions' last 10 games. Colts peeking to J'Ville & Titans?

Washington 30 - CINCINNATI 7 - (1:00) -- No rest for the weary. In this case,
namely, the Bengals, who are looking forward to January. Just a single win,
while ranking last in the NFL in the ability to move the ball. Check losing their
last 2 games by similar 34-3 & 35-3 scores, with a 96-16 pt deficit in their last
3 games. More? Okay, how about a 1,636-897 yd deficit over the last 4 weeks,
& a 148-66 pt deficit at home this year? So, they enter this one off facing the
likes of Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, & Colts. Like we said: no rest for the weary.

ATLANTA 23 - Tampa Bay 10 - (1:00) -- All doubt is now removed, as to the
authenticity of these Falcons, who are a definite force, following LY's debacle,
which saw them finish at 4-12. They rank 6th in total "D", with rookie Ryan just
splendid (24-of-33 again LW), & Turner doing the job, overland (2nd best rush
"O" in the NFL). A 762-615 yd edge in 2-gm road trip at Chargers & Saints .
They are 19-8 ATS as division favs, & 14-2 ATS division hosts, between a pair
of non-division tilts. And note covering their last HG by 16 pts. Revenge call.

San Francisco 20 - MIAMI 19 - (1:00) -- Was it really 24 years ago, when these
2 met in Super Bowl XIX? How about the number 26?. That's the TO edge for
the Dolphs in this match, as Miami is at +12, while SanFran is at -14, for the
season. The Fish are in a 3-way tie with the Jets & Pats, at the top of the AFC
East, standing at 8-5. Solid rushing "D", & Pennington a model of consistency:
23-of-29 vs the Bills. But the Niners are taking care of business under Singletary
(+41 pts ATS), & in off 25-10 FD & nearly 200-yd edge vs the Jets. Miami is
only 8-20 ATS as non-division host, & the dog is 11-0 ATS in Dolphin tilts of late.

Seattle 22 - ST LOUIS 16 - (1:00) -- It just continues to climb. The Rams now
have a 193-57 pt deficit in their last 6 games, & they've failed to reach 20 pts in
12 of their last 13 games. No sustained drives in their loss to the Cards, altho
just a 27-yd overall deficit. But the Seahawks are their match, with an identical
2-11 record. No Hasselbeck for Seattle vs the Pats, but Wallace filled in nicely,
with 3 TD tosses, & no INTs. And check a 134-84 RY edge over NE's 9th rated
run "O". Backing a 2-11 squad as a FG RF a bit scary, but Seattle is 14-6 ATS
in division play in its final 4 GOY, & the Rams are just 9-20 ATS in division play.

NEW YORK JETS 24 - Buffalo 13 - (1:00) -- Pity the Bills. They actually led the
AFC East after week #7, but have dropped 6-of-7 games since. They have no
quarterbacking, have managed just 3 & 3 pts the last 2 weeks, & are averaging
<10 ppg in 5 of their last 7 games. Sure, they seek revenge off an earlier home
loss to the Jets, but hardly have the horses. The Jets are in off a horrendous
display at SanFran, with deficits of 25-10 in FDs, & 375-182 in yds. And Brett
is now only 20/15. But they are averaging 28.6 ppg in their last 7 games, & are
8-1 ATS as division hosts, off being upset on the field. Jets, but nothing strong.

Tennessee 30 - HOUSTON 17 - (1:00) -- The 12-1 Titans have clinched their
division for the first time since '02. Three more takeaways vs the Browns, so
plus 15 for the season. Check a 527-57 RY edge in their last 2 games, with a
75-19 pt edge since their only loss. Overland, Johnson & White have been
nearly unstoppable. Three straight wins for Houston, & in off spectacular 549
yd effort at GreenBay. Slaton: 250 RYs last 2 wks, & return of Schaub resulted
in 414 PYs vs the Pack. But no comparison to Titan "D". Tennessee has had
Houston's number, covering their last 5 meetings. Revenge takes a back seat.

BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 13 - (1:00) -- Defense, front-&-center. These two
powers rank 1st & 2nd in the NFL, in stop unit ability, with credentials galore.
Four straight wins for the Steelers, despite just 13 FDs vs the Cowboys, when
they overcame a 13-3 deficit, with a 17-0 edge over the final 6½ minutes. So
check holding 9 foes below 18 pts (just 10, 10, 10, 13 last 4 wks). And they've
covered their last 4 RGs by 72 pts. But ditto, the Ravens, who've allowed <14
pts 9 times TY. They're 6-1 ATS vs Steelers, & are 15-4 ATS as HFs of <4 pts.

CAROLINA 27 - Denver 24 - (1:00) -- The seemingly defenseless Broncos enjoy
a lofty perch atop the AFC West, with no less than a 3-game lead over the
Chargers. Nothing wrong with Denver's "O", which ranks 2nd in the NFL, with
102 & 165 yd edges the last 2 wks. Cutler: 3,679 yds & 23 TD passes. The
visitor is the way to go, covering the last 6 games involving the Broncos, by no
less than 87 pts. And the dog is 10-1-1 ATS in Denver tilts. Carolina is in off
Monday war with Tampa, & is just 7-13 ATS as a non-division HF. This a take.

San Diego 31 - KANSAS CITY 17 - (1:00) -- Finally signs of life for the Chargers.
Took hopeful Raiders by a 34-7 count, with a 209-yd edge (158-54 RY edge,
after entering with the 26th rated overland game). Check 3 more TD passes for
Rivers, who now stands at a highly respectable 26/10. First RG for SanDiego
in a month, but note the Chiefs allowing 34, 30, 30, & 54 pts in their last 4 HGs.
Five of last seven KC games have been decided by a TD or less SU, but the
Chargers are 23-9 ATS away, off allowing <11 pts. Again, forget revenge angle.

ARIZONA 26 - Minnesota 19 - (4:05) -- Cards have clinched their first division
title in more than 3 decades (NFC East in '75), & will be hosting their first postseason
game since 1947, when they were the Chicago Cardinals. They have
reached at least 20 pts in 20 of their last 21 games, with their "O" ranking 3rd in
the NFL. Vikes are a game up on the Bears, thanks to their current 5-1 SU
run, & despite being held to 298 yds by the Lions. Peterson (1,413 RYs) leads
an "O" which has reached 28 pts in 6 of last 9 games. But Minny is 4-22 ATS
in its road finale, as well as just 2-13 ATS as non-division RD off a pair of wins.

New England 27 - OAKLAND 10 - (4:15) -- Well, the Pats got their bounceback
win LW, but not by enough. Just 84 RYs vs Seattle's 30th ranked run "D". And
check their formerly stellar defense, which had held 6 teams below 19 pts, but
which has allowed 116 pts in their last 4 contests (29 ppg). But the Raiders
provide just the right tonic. Oakland, not only is in off managing just 7 pts, 9
FDs, & 163 TYs, but is averaging only 6 ppg in its last 3 HGs. The visitor is on
a 5-1 ATS run in Raider games, as well as an 11-4 ATS run in Patriot contests.
Oakland is just 5-20 ATS in Dec, & is 7-19 ATS when hosting winning teams.

DALLAS 22 - New York Giants 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- There can be no questioning
the importance of the loss of Burress, as far as the Giant "O" is concerned. In
LW's dominating loss to the Eagles, NY managed a paltry 14 FDs & 211 yds.
Just 123 PYs for Eli, & only 88 RYs for the NFL's #1 overland team. Dallas let
it get away vs Pitt, seeing 13-3 lead with 6½ minutes left, dissolve into 20-13
loss. Romo: 3/1, but that 1 pick provided the Steelers with the winning TD. Big
"D" can't afford another setback, & is only 1-8 ATS in division play, while NY is
13-1 ATS away. Extremely frightening bucking either trend, but mild 'Boy play.

MONDAY

PHILADELPHIA 31 - Cleveland 10 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- More than a TD jump in
the spread here, as the Eagles have put it together the past 2 weeks, with a 56-26
FD edge over the Cards & Giants, who own a combined 19-7 record. McNabb
has shaken the ghosts, with a 5/0 mark in those wins, & Westbrook is now the
Eagles' all-time leader in total yds. The Browns? Try no TDs in their last 3 games
(7 FGs), & in off a 200-RY deficit, with Ken Dorsey now doing their flinging. That
rout loss to the Titans snapped a 9-game spread run for the pup in Cleveland
outings. Eagles 13-2 ATS off the Giants, & 18-11 ATS at home off SU/ATS win.

Posted : December 10, 2008 10:12 am

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON any NFL division home dog off back-to-back wins if their last
game was on the non-division road as a dog of 4 or more points.

Play On: HOUSTON TEXANS

ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 10-1 (91%)

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

NFC South Division teams are
23-2 SU and 18-6-1 ATS at home this season,
including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division games.

5* BEST BET
HOUSTON over Tennessee by 10
Now here’s a dog that doesn’t realize it owns a losing record. Riding
a 3-0 SU and ATS winning streak and 9-4 ITS (In The Stats) this
season, the Texans are the only sub .500 team in the league that
gains more yards (381) than it allows (342). With QB Matt Schaub
back in the lineup (he tossed for 414 yards in last week’s win at
Green Bay), Houston is still mathematically alive in the race for a
Wild Card spot in the wide-open AFC. A win here today, next week
at Oakland and then back home to close out the season against
Chicago could do it. Gary Kubiak is one of our ‘Play On’ SMART BOX
coaches coming down the stretch and we’re certainly not about
to fade that sagacious square. Especially with the Titans still in a
celebratory mood after clinching the division title last week and our
AWESOME ANGLE at work in this game. Tennessee drops to 3-16
ATS as a favorite against an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. Here comes Houie

4* BEST BET
San Francisco over MIAMI by 7
What to make of the upstart Dolphins? They now control their own
destiny in the AFC East Division and appear to be playoff bound.
That’s quite an accomplishment for a 1-win team from a year ago.
Sure, they’ve benefi ted from a ridiculously weak schedule (their wins
have come against teams that currently own a collective win-loss
record of 34-57 this season). Our biggest problem in backing them
this week is that they’ve still yet to cash as a favorite under rookie
coach Tony Sparano (0-4 ATS). True, the Niners are another West
Coast team playing a game in the dreaded East Coast time zone but
they don’t have to win this game to get the cash (although we feel
they will). Frisco has cashed in 4 of its 5 games since its Bye Week
and is taking to Mike Singletary’s playbook. The Fish’s 3-18 ATS mark
as home favorites of more than 6 points off a win puts this one on
ice. Besides, the Niners beat the Bills in Buffalo two weeks ago. As
Iron Mike would say, “We don’t need no stinkin’ time zone to win
a game!”

3* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
The Chargers are back! The Chargers are back! Yeah, sure and so are
sub-prime loans. Let’s get one thing straight. A win and cover against
the Oakland Raiders is simply a false sense of security as teams in this
role are just 84-104-5 ATS dating all the way back to 1980, including
5-11 SU and ATS if they scored 34 or more points at home against
Oakland and are now on the road after having been camped at home
the last three weeks. At 1-5 SU on the road this season (the only win
against – you guessed it – the Raiders), the Chargers continue to allow
more yards (352) then they gain (332) on the season. On the fl ip side,
the Chiefs have not thrown in the towel while covering the number
in 5 of its last 7 games. They will take the fi eld with added incentive
today to make amends from a 54-31 previous home loss to Buffalo, the
most points ever allowed in Chiefs’ history. Kansas City’s sterling 24-9
SU and 26-7 ATS record as a home dog against opponents off a win,
including 18-4 ATS when laced with revenge, should fi nd the Chiefs
looking to add a new scalp. And down goes Diego

Thursday, December 11th

CHICAGO over New Orleans by 1
On the surface, a cold and blustery December night in Chicago does not
fi gure to serve the climate-controlled Saints well. That is, however, until our
database kicks into the equation. The Bears looked to have the road paved
to the playoffs by the schedule maker when he awarded them a pair of
three-game homestands this season. Little did he realize that home teams
in the 2nd of a 3-game regular season home stand struggle when playing
off a SU and ATS win and hosting a .500 or greater foe seeking revenge
(Chicago has beaten New Orleans three straight times, including a seasonender
that cost them a .500 record last year and a playoff loss here in 2006).
That’s because these weighty hosts are just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in this role
since 1980. And we’ll bet you didn’t know that NO team in the league has
fared better than the Saints in the stat-wars this season where they are 10-2-
1 ITS (In The Stats). Now there’s a bar bet you’ll win, hands down. Dome be
damned… we’re feeling mighty saintly here tonight.

Sunday, December 14th

JACKSONVILLE over Green Bay by 1
Call out the bugler. It’s time to blow taps on the 2008 season for the Packers.
At home in a must-win situation against an opponent primed like a pump
for a letdown, Green Bay gagged and let us down at home in a major way
last Sunday. They now ride a 0-3 SU and ATS losing skein into Jacksonville
wondering where it all went wrong. The Bye Week didn’t help as they’ve
managed just one win in six games since taking a wink. Meanwhile, the
Jaguars are in similar straits. They check in on a 0-4 SU and ATS slide and are
an incredulous 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS at Municipal Stadium this season – that
from a team that went 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS here the previous three seasons.
Our guess is they are hungrier than Green Bay is caring. We can’t back a road
favorite that may have packed it in.

INDIANAPOLIS over Detroit by 13
Yes, the Colts look like a runaway stallion at this stage of the season while
the Lions look like a team about ready to set NFL history. Detroit tried
desperately last week to shake the enigma of being the league’s fi rst team
to never post a win in a 16-game regular season. On the other hand, Indy
posted its best numbers of the year in a 32-point romp over the Bengals on
this fi eld last Sunday. So why is it, you ask, we would have any inkling of
lining up with these pussycats? Simply put, double-digit chalk in this loop
has not fared well this season, going 10-18 ATS overall. Worse, double-digit
home favorites against winless teams have been pathetic, going 1-10 ATS.
In fact, dating back to 1985, any NFL double-digit home favorite during the
2nd half of the season is just 1-12 ATS when hosting a maiden looking for
its fi rst win. With Indy looking dead ahead to season-ending revenge games
against division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee, this looks like a nice spot
for the Lions to practice their roar. Insert earplug and do Detroit.

CINCINNATI over Washington by 4
Here’s another ghastly dog on a card just loaded with them this week. Only
this time, like the Packers, the Redskins look just about ready to stick a fork
into themselves. After a 4-1 SU and ATS getaway, Washington is just 3-5
SU and 1-7 ATS since, with the wins coming against the likes of Cleveland,
Detroit and Seattle. Realizing Cincinnati takes on a similar aura, we can’t get
past the fact the Skins’ only stat win the last fi ve weeks has come against the
Seahawks in a win-no-cover at Qwest Field. Granted, the Bengals have lost
more than their stripes this season but they are an ‘Ugly Pig’ that battled
the Eagles to a 13-13 tie here a month ago. When things smell this odorous
you simply reach for a clothespin and apply it tightly to the nose. Cincinnati
to win.

ATLANTA over Tampa Bay by 6
We’ll be the fi rst to admit we started working ourselves up into a lather at
the prospects of taking down these high-fl ying Falcons this week. Then the
checks-and-balances appeared. For openers, Atlanta has not dropped backto-
back games this season. Then the matter of revenge from a 24-9 setback
suffered in Week Two at Tampa factors in… as well as our INCREDIBLE STAT
(see page 2). And don’t forget the Bucs’ 1-10 ATS mark on the December
road with a .500 or greater record off a division game. Tampa’s 0-3 SU and
ATS mark in division duels after a Monday night appearance speaks volumes
(as did the 300 rushing yards they allowed to Carolina Monday night).
Like we said, we’ve once again worked ourselves up into a lather singing
praises… for Atlanta today!

ST. LOUIS over Seattle by 3
Egad! Just what we need on a card fi lled with bad teams: two of them going
head-to-head in a who-cares matchup. If there is any solace in this game,
it’s that the winner will escape the basement in the NFC West Division.
Amazingly, St. Louis has dressed in dog-cloth seventeen straight games,
including every game this season. Sure, they are 1-12 ATS with a losing
record in division games. And the Seabags are have won the cabbage three
straight times in this series, including a 37-13 win as 9-point home favorites
in Week Three this season. The bottom line is the Rams will be an’ Ugly Pig’
should they take points in this disaster. Seattle as a road favorite? Now that’s
repulsive!

NY JETS over Buffalo by 6
A division rematch featuring two teams doing the two-step – backwards,
that is. The Flyboys were sitting atop the AFC East three weeks ago before
crashing as favorites against Denver and San Francisco. Likewise for Buffalo,
who hasn’t paid the bills in its last two games as chalk against Miami and
San Francisco. The inclination is to back Buffi e in a payback from a 26-17 loss
as 5-point home favorites six weeks ago. Despite New York’s dismal 1-6 ATS
mark as a favorite in December in games with both teams off a loss, Buffalo’s
1-6 SU and ATS run of late will likely keep the rubber band in place.

Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE by 3
The Steelers kicked it in gear when they needed to, rallying for 17 unanswered
points in the fi nal 7:15 against Dallas to storm back for a 20-13 win. That
keeps them one-leg up on the surging Ravens for the top spot in the AFC
Central, making this game the biggest of the season for both clubs. And what
a matchup it is, one that features the top two defenses in the league. Both
teams are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three tilts and obviously playing their
best ball of the season. Pittsburgh will put its 11-1-1 ATS mark on the division
road against an opponent off a win while Baltimore counters with its 6-1 ATS
record in this series. The bottom line: when push comes to shove we’ll put our
money on the future Hall of Fame quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) against
the rookie (Joe Flacco) in a big-time game for the cheese.

CAROLINA over Denver by 6
Wow. Carolina’s Monday night mauling of Tampa was impressive, indeed.
They have now put themselves into position to win out and gain a Bye in the
NFC playoffs. And the way NFC South teams have performed at home this
season (see this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2), it’s diffi cult to step in
their path. Meanwhile, the Broncos enter with a fat 3-game lead in the AFC
West Division despite allowing more points than they’ve scored this season.
Mike Shanahan’s 11-2 ATS career mark as a road dog of less than 7 points off
back-to-back wins warrants attention but not enough to make the call.

ARIZONA over Minnesota by 7
Confl icting angles make this a dizzying call. The Vikings fi nd themselves in
a theory we call AAHAA, or a team that is on the road off a road game,
preceded by a home game that was preceded by back-to-back road games.
The sequence being, Away, Away, Home, Away and Away. As you might
expect, teams tend to tire in these scenarios. On the other side of the coin,
they are a dog that failed to cover the number as double-digit chalk last
week, generally a nice ‘play-on’ spot. With QB Gus Frerrote iffy and Minny
1-7 SU and ATS in its fi nal road game of the season, we instead point to
Arizona’s 7-1 ATS mark as a favorite against opponents riding a 3-game win
streak. Aahaa, now that was easy.

New England over OAKLAND by 7
Rather than return home from a win at Seattle last Sunday, the Patriots
opted to stay on the left coast to prepare for this game. Bill Belichick realizes
a loss here today means last week’s come-from-behind victory would be for
naught. Understand, the Pats have struggled on the road against losing
teams from Game Thirteen out, going just 2-13 ATS. They are also a ‘Super
Bowl Loser’ laying points on the non-division road, a 13-34-2 ATS losing
proposition. With the Raiders riding a 6-18 ATS run as home dogs, this
becomes a tough call. Your move.

DALLAS over NY Giants by 4
The biggest game of the season on the NFC side of things fi nds the Cowboys
back home looking to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 35-14 defeat
suffered at New York the fi rst week in November. There was no Tony Romo
for Dallas in that game. He’s back now and since his return the Cowboys are
3-1 SU and ATS, managing to win the stats in all four games. The biggest
number in Dallas’ favor is an 11-1 ATS mark with revenge off a SU and ATS
loss against a division foe off a loss. The Giants counter with a 7-2-1 ATS
record in this series. They are also a mind-boggling 15-1 SU and ATS in their
last sixteen games away from the Big Apple. Tough numbers to fade on
both sides of the ball, wouldn’t you agree?

Monday, December 15th

PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland by 10
Now that was the Eagles we’ve all grown to admire. A convincing 20-14
victory at New York against the Giants as 7-point dogs puts them back in
the playoff picture. And their 13-2 ATS mark in games after taking on the
G-Men is impressive. What we don’t like, though, is the severe role change
in this contest. That and the fact that Cleveland coach Romeo ‘Lame Duck’
Crennel is 8-0 ATS in games off a loss of 17 or more points. He’s also 3-
0-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in NFC frays. With Philly off the
NYG revenge win and having season-ending division revenge games up
next with Washington and Dallas, the points become the play here tonight.
Make it a Brownie Monday.

TOTALS

3* Dolphins OVER
4*Texans OVER
5* Bengals UNDER

Posted : December 10, 2008 5:25 pm

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week

NFL: TENNESSEE-HOUSTON “Over”...Series “over” last 5 and 7 of last
8; BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh...Ravens have covered 6 of last 7 in series;
DENVER over Carolina...Broncos have won and covered last 3 on road (all
as dog!).

KEY RELEASES

NFL ANALYSIS
THE GOLD SHEET PAGE 2
GREEN BAY by 13 over Jacksonville
ARIZONA by 14 over Minnesota
UNDER the total in the Cleveland-Philadelphia game (Monday)

ARIZONA 31 - Minnesota 17—Cardinals have clinched their first
divisional crown in 33 years. But expect no let-up, as second-year HC Ken
Whisenhunt has done an excellent job fostering team chemistry despite
management’s contract squabbles with players, the Leinart-Warner QB
question, and the benching of veteran RB Edgerrin James. If it’s Tarvaris
Jackson at QB for Gus Frerotte (check status), he’ll have loads of problems
dealing with Arizona S Adrian Wilson. Cards’ only home loss TY was vs. the
mighty Giants. Arizona 7-1 “over” last 8 home. (06-MINNESOTA -6' 31-
26...SR: Minnesota 11-9)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11

*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the
L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title
game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has
19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted
Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the
offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB
Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities for
Kyle Orton. TV—NFL NETWORK
(07-CHI. 33-N. Orl. 25...N.28-13 N.20/105 C.27/96 N.35/60/2/308 C.13/28/1/179 C.2 N.1)
(07-CHICAGO +1 33-25...SR: Chicago 14-11

ATLANTA 23 - Tampa Bay 13—Much-improved Atlanta has guarded its
home turf well TY, winning & covering 5 times and stumbling only 24-20 vs.
Denver. Moreover, quick-study rookie QB Matt Ryan (14 TDs, 7 ints.) now
much better prepared to face T.B.’s sophisticated zone defenses than he was
in first meeting way back in Week Two. With Ryan’s help, Falcons’ WR quartet
of Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas & Brian Finneran a formidable
NFL group. Relentless DE John Abraham has 12½ sacks.
(08-T. BAY 24-Atl. 9...T.15-14 T.28/164 A.28/105 T.18/31/0/147 A.13/33/2/129 T.1 A.0)
(07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2)
(07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2)
(08-T. BAY -7 24-9; 07-T. Bay -3 31-7, T. BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 18-12

Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16—When Seattle clubbed the Rams 37-13 in Week
Three, little did the Seahawks know 2008 was going to be a nightmare season
for both these teams, especially in the walkaway campaign for respected HC
Mike Holmgren. Last week, Seattle placed two of its three best OLmen (C Chris
Spencer & LG Mike Wahle) on IR, and Matt Hasselbeck (back) missed another
game. Still, the Seahawks’ effort behind Seneca Wallace (3 TDP vs. N.E.) was
much more inspiring that the continuing string of turnovers, drops, sacks, and
blown scoring chances by the Rams.
(08-SEA. 37-St. Lou. 13...Se.24-14 Se.46/245 St.24/65 St.17/30/1/167 Se.12/20/0/162 Se.1 St.1)
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(07-Sea. 24-ST. LOU. 19...Se.18-17 St.31/104 Se.19/87 Se.21/38/1/215 St.23/37/2/161 Se.1 St.0)
(08-SEATTLE -9 37-13; 07-SEATTLE -8 33-6, Seattle -3 24-19...SR: Seattle 11-10)

NY JETS 24 - Buffalo 13—Both teams have lost two straight. But the Jets—
with Brett Favre at the controls, Thomas Jones (1088 YR) & Leon Washington
(326 YR) doing the running, and NT Kris Jenkins disrupting things up front—
appear to have a better 2008 future than the banged-up Bills. Buffalo has
notched only 22 sacks & 7 ints. in 13 games. Not good vs. a well-focused Favre.
Bills in the midst of a 1-6 pointspread freefall. Despite recent downturn, N.Y.
still controls its own fate to win the AFC East.
(08-NY Jets 26-BUF. 17...B.18-16 N.25/96 B.17/30 B.24/35/2/262 N.19/28/1/201 N.0 B.1)
(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)
(07-Buf. 13-NY JETS 3...B.19-14 B.35/108 N.23/100 B.17/26/1/239 N.18/32/2/154 B.0 N.1)
(08-NY Jets +5' 26-17; 07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14, Buffalo +3 13-3...SR: Buffalo 53-43)

HOUSTON 26 - Tennessee 23—Tennessee is certainly entitled to a
mulligan, as the near-flawless Titans (6-0 vs. the spread away!) has already
clinched the AFC South and has a magic number of one to lock up the AFC
home field throughout the playoffs. But Jeff Fisher’s crew was sloppy last week
vs. Cleveland, when Tennessee got away with 3 giveaways & 13 penalties and
still handily beat the QB-shy Browns. If the Titans not super-sharp this week,
they might not escape improving Houston, which welcomed back QB Schaub
(414 YP!) last week at Green Bay. Note last five “over” in series.
(08-TENN. 31-Hou. 12...T.19-18 T.36/154 H.28/146 T.14/26/1/189 H.17/37/3/171 T.1 H.0)
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(08-TENN. -5 31-12; 07-Tenn. -1 38-36, TENN. -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 11-2)

BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 10—Through the first 12 games of the season,
the mighty Steel defense led the NFL in yards, points, rush yards, pass yards,
sacks, and combined ints. + sacks. But the Baltimore defense is not far behind.
And precocious Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (2410 YP, 13 TDs, 10 ints.)
showed in first meeting he’s not intimidated by Pittsburgh, leading a late 76-
yard drive to force OT. Baltimore RB trio of Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee &
Ray Rice has pounded for 1581 YR, while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger
merely getting pounded.
(08-PITT 23-Balt. 20 (OT)...B.16-11 B.33/103 P.28/69 P.14/24/1/168 B.16/31/0/140 P.0 B.1)
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(08-PITT -5 23-20 (OT); 07-PITT -9 38-7, BALT. +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 16-10)

San Diego 24 - KANSAS CITY 16—Chargers trying to keep their very slim
playoff chances alive, with their fans grumbling aloud about the team’s dearth
of Pro Bowl-level performances by their favorites following LY’s appearance in
the AFC title game. But one key exception has been QB Philip Rivers (64%, 26
TDs, 10 ints.), who should have fun with K.C.’s weak defense (only six sacks
TY), which is currently on track to posting one of lowest (if not the lowest) sack
totals in NFL history.
(08-S. DIEGO 20-K. City 19...S.23-19 S.26/92 K.18/76 S.27/36/2/308 K.27/41/0/263 S.0 K.0)
(07-K. City 30-S. DIEGO 16...S.19-17 S.24/133 K.28/126 K.17/29/2/264 S.21/42/2/200 K.0 S.2)
(07-S. Diego 24-K. CITY 10...K.18-12 S.32/191 K.25/88 K.21/40/3/180 S.10/21/1/139 S.0 K.1)
(08-S. DIEGO -15 20-19; 07-K. City +12 30-16, S. Diego -6 24-10...SR: Kansas City 50-46-1

*N.Y. Giants 23 - DALLAS 20—Cowboys conquered three beatable foes
(Redskins, 49ers, Seahawks) in Tony Romo’s first three games back from his
little finger injury. And they had the Steelers on the ropes last week, with
Tashard Choice (166 yds. rushing & receiving) subbing well for Marion Barber
III. But some sloppiness and miscommunication did them in. Will those poor
habits continue vs. the NFC East champion Giants, who have covered 13 of
their last 14 on the road? Check status of N.Y. power back Brandon Jacobs
(knee). TV—NBC
(08-GIANTS 35-Dal. 14...N.23-11 N.34/200 D.24/81 N.16/27/1/119 D.14/27/3/102 N.2 D.1)
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/314 D.1 N.0)
(07-Dal. 31-GIANTS 20...N.23-19 N.27/106 D.24/82 D.20/28/1/241 N.23/34/2/194 D.0 N.0)
(07-Giants 21-DAL. 17...D.23-16 D.33/154 N.23/90 D.18/36/1/182 N.12/18/0/140 N.0 D.0)
(08-GIA -8' 35-14; 07-DAL. -6 45-35, Dal. -2 31-20, Giants +7' 21-17 (Playoffs)...SR: Dal. 54-37-

Posted : December 10, 2008 5:27 pm

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

The Edge Newsletter

3* Atlanta
3* Arizona
3* Philadelphia

Posted : December 10, 2008 6:48 pm

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

NORTHCOAST POWERSEEP

KEY SELECTIONS

4* ARIZONA over Minnesota -

This is the 4th road game in 5 weeks for MIN & they will be dealing with another week of distractions due to the susp issues of the Williams DT’s. ARZ is in their 3rd home game in 4 weeks & are playing for the #3 seed in the NFC. ARZ is 6-3 ATS hosting a non-div foe. MIN is 3-6 ATS as an AD. ARZ is 2-5 SU & 1-5-1 ATS TY vs physical defenses (WAS, NYJ, DAL, CAR, SF under Singletary, PHI & NYG). MIN hasn’t played an explosive passing game in the L4W & beat GB when RB Peterson willed his team to a win on MIN’s final drive. While MIN beat DET LW they only had a 31 yd edge in the game, were -2 in TO’s and allowed Culpepper to have his best game of the year (102.8 QBR). QB Frerotte (lower back) was KO’d as well & his status is unknown here. Warner has passed for 301 ypg (73%) with a 12-3 ratio at home TY & ARZ is on pace to have three 1,000+ yd WR’s TY with Boldin, Fitzgerald & Breaston. We respect the Vikings run game & physical style of defense but ARZ is at home with fewer distractions. FORECAST: ARIZONA 31 Minnesota 17

3* Tennessee over HOUSTON -

TEN moved to 5-0 SU & ATS vs HOU after beating them 31-12 as a 4.5 pt HF in Wk 3. It was HOU’s first game back since Hurricane Ike & they were very rusty. On 5 drives inside the TEN 11 the Texans came away with 1 TD, 1 FG, 2 SOD & 1 int that was returned 99 yds for a TD. TEN is 17-5 ATS on the road & have outgained foes 344-238 with a 27-11 avg score TY. TEN has the #16 & #3 units (+11 TO’s) vs HOU’s #3 & #20 units (-11 TO’s). While TEN has won the AFC South & have a 1st RD bye they don’t have the #1 seed locked up yet. HOU got QB Schaub back LW after missing 4 games with a knee injury LW & he had 414 yds passing (67%) with a 2-1 ratio hitting 11 plays of 17 yds or more. While HOU has covered 4 straight they are 1-6 SU & ATS vs foes with a winning record TY. TEN is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS vs foes with a losing record TY. HOU’s #4 passing attack is impressive but look for TEN to slow the game down with their #3 rush offense that has rushed for 527 yds (5.9) the L2W & force HOU to play their physical style of football. FORECAST: Tennessee 34 HOUSTON 20

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* San Francisco (+) over MIAMI -

This is the 3rd road trip in 4 Wks for SF who moved to 9-24-1 ATS in EST when they pulled a road upset in BUF just 2 Wks ago. MIA is 4-22 (0-3 TY) ATS as a favorite while SF is 5-12 ATS as a non-div dog. MIA is 1-4 ATS in their final HG & have road games vs KC & NYJ on deck. MIA is #10 & #7 (+4 TO’s) the L4W & SF is #22 & #21 (-2 TO’s). Both teams have misleading stats as SF has covered 4 of 5 since their bye but had been outgained by 92 ypg in the 4 games prior to LW. SF QB Hill has been very solid the L4W (241 ypg 68% 7-2 8.4 ypa) & led SF to 4 drives of 8+ plays for scores. MIA snapped a 4 game ATS losing streak knocking off BUF in Toronto finishing with a 295-163 yard edge but that was vs backup QB Losman. While an 8-5 record is commendable, LB Crowder admitted they have a tendency to play down to the level of their foe & the dog has gone 10-1 ATS in Dolphins games. Interim HC Singeltary has given SF purpose, motivation & an excitement to continue to play hard & are the Ugly Dog (24-12 67%) again despite the long road trip.
FORECAST: San Francisco 13 (+) MIAMI 14

2* INDIANAPOLIS over Detroit - The bad news is DET is the 6th team since 1970 to start a season 0-13. The good news for the Lions is that the Colts have a Thurs Night road game vs JAX on deck & close out the season with a HG vs TEN. IND is 9-4 ATS as a DD fav while DET is 7-1 ATS as DD dog. IND has massive edges with Manning who has avg’d 245 ypg (68%) with a 12-3 ratio the L6W including the CLE game. After dismantling CIN’s #23 pass D he now faces DET’s #17 pass D (18-2 ratio) that is much worse than its ranking. DET’s opposing QBR of 108.2 is on pace to break the NFL record set by the 1982 Houston Oilers (107.3). DET is allowing 201 ypg rushing (5.8) on the road TY & by comparison only fourteen 1A college defenses allowed more ypg rushing on the year. While IND is rather injury depleted right now on defense they did get SS Sanders back LW & DET only had 2 healthy WR’s LW that were on the opening day roster. QB Culpepper was injured LW & DET could be down to #5 QB Drew Henson here. The Colts roll to another big win vs a DET team that simply lacks the weapons or cohesion to compete vs an IND team that will have to play hard with TEN winning the AFC South for a playoff spot. FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 34 Detroit 10

OTHER GAMES

New Orleans at CHICAGO - Thursday. The Bears have the situational advantage of being a cold weather team on a short week hosting a warm weather dome team. The Saints have the advantage of their #1 offense vs CHI’s #28 pass defense that has been under siege by injuries. Both teams remain in the hunt after both got much needed wins LW. Unlike previous Thursday Night games this will have a direct impact on the playoff chase. Call Thursday after 3:00 pm ET and get the Thursday Night PPH winner for just $9 on your Northcoast Debit Card! Also available on line at Welcome To Northcoast Sports.

Green Bay 27 JACKSONVILLE 24 - Both teams have seen their playoff hopes evaporate & are playing for 2009. GB is 15-5-1 ATS on the road. JAX is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS at home TY. JAX’s issues in the trenches have hindered them all year especially at home where they have been outgained 331-298 (-5 TO’s) vs outgaining foes 364-326 (+4 TO’s) LY. JAX has only avg’d 94 ypg (3.9) rushing at home TY vs 131 (4.5) LY. JAX took a big hit when CB Mathis landed on IR LW & #1 WR Jones (65 rec 11.7) may be susp the rest of the season. GB’s mental state is hard to gauge losing their L2 games at home on last second plays. Rodgers has only had 2 bad games TY (at TB, at NO) and he’s avg 253 ypg (65%, 18-5) without those. Their #23 defense lacks any pass rush outside of DE Kampman (9.5 sacks) & gives up way to many big pass plays (11 plays for 17+ yds LW). JAX lacks the pass rush (22th) to go after Rodgers, a disappointing run game (17th) to establish a play action attack for Garrard (229 ypg 57% 3-5 6.2 ypa L4W) & their #14 pass defense with a 21-12 ratio is a problem here & we’ll call for the road team by 3 in a higher scoring game.

Washington 20 CINCINNATI 7 - Situationally CIN catches WAS at a good time as the Redskins are on their 3rd road game in 4 Wks (but BAL only 34 mile trip) after a cold & windy game vs BAL on SNF. WAS also has a HG vs PHI on deck but CIN has been blasted by injuries TY. CIN has an NFL high 21 players on IR & were without another 3 players LW including LT Jones (back) & TE Utecht. Since rushing for 159 yds (5.5) vs JAX, CIN has 60 ypg (2.6). CIN’s injury depleted OL has allowed 48 sacks TY & the Bengals are converting just 4 of 16 3rd Dns on avg since the JAX game. The Bengals haven’t scored a TD in their last 168 minutes of play. WAS is 3-4 SU & 1-5-1 ATS since their 23-17 win vs PHI due to a tougher schedule. WAS has faced 4 top 10 defenses inc BAL over that span which accounts for their #25 offense over the L4W but they have a #8 defense the L4W prior to BAL. They take a huge step down vs CIN who has been outgained 343-231 at home TY losing by a 25-11 margin & get the win here.

ATLANTA 24 Tampa Bay 17 - TB beat ATL 24-9 as a 7 pt HF in Ryan’s 1st NFL road game. Ryan had his worst game of the season with 158 yds (39%) with an 0-2 ratio & was sacked a season high 4 times. TB had a 311-234 yd edge & converted the 2 int into 10 pts. ATL has the schedule edge with TB off a road MNF game vs CAR & having to travel to a div foe on a short week. QB Ryan (315 yds 73%, 1-1) was the first to outperform Brees (230 yds 56% 2-0) at the Superdome. He battled & showed his fortitude in the loss at NO that saw 7 lead changes. He’s now back home in an NFC South matchup that has seen home teams go 18-7 ATS (22-2 SU) & his performance at the Georgia Dome (235 ypg, 67%, 5-1) has led ATL to a 5-1 SU & ATS record incl 2 upset wins. While rookie’s tend to fade come Dec Ryan has actually raised his comp % from 52.4% (Sep) to 61.0 (Oct) & 68.0 (Nov). Much of that success is due to an OL that has only allowed ONE sack in the L5 games. TB needs pressure & QB sacks for their defense to be successful & in the 3 road game they had 1 sack or less they’ve allowed 438 yds & 24 pts to NO, 333 yds in a loss at DEN & 384 yds & 27 pts at KC. ATL allowed 14 plays over 10 yds LW & TB doesn’t have the speed at the skill positions making this Falcons squad another solid home play.

ST LOUIS 31 Seattle 24 - SEA got their 1st win of the year with a 37-13 win as 9.5 pt HF vs a STL team that had quit on their previous HC. SEA had a 407-240 yd edge which was the only game TY they won the yardage battle in. SEA had a 15-5 FD & 267-63 yd edge at the end of the 1H en route to 245 (5.3) yds rushing. SEA is 8-16 ATS on the road while STL is 5-14 ATS at home. SEA has been outgained 410-249 on the road TY losing by an avg of 28-15. Injuries are really starting to catch up to SEA as they were without 4 offensive starters & #1 tackler SLB Hill LW vs NE. QB Hasselbeck’s back injury flared up, LT Jones DNP & Ctr Spencer & LG Wahle landed on IR. Wallace had a very respectable game with 212 yds passing (71%) with a 3-0 ratio but got no run support as he was the leading rusher (47 yds 15.7) with the RB’s adding only 87 yds (3.8). STL has been outgained 372-270 at home TY losing by a 27-15 avg score & they will be lucky to have 60% of their fans here. Not counting the CHI game where he was KO’d, Bulger has avg’d 205 ypg passing (55%) with a 5-10 ratio & just a 6.0 ypa in his L6 games & he has missed wide open WR’s due to overthrows, bad routes & outright drops. RB Jackson was given unlimited touches LW & only had 64 yds (3.4) but will face a SEA defense that is 21st allowing 119 ypg (4.0) on the ground. Neither team is especially appealing but SEA is too beat up & making a long road trip here. Look for STL to do enough with a gameplan heavily centered on Jackson to get the win here.

NY JETS 27 Buffalo 14 - The Jets improved to 3-7 ATS vs the Bills with a 26-17 win as a 5 pt AD in the 1st meeting. BUF had a 7-6 lead late 1Q with all the momentum when Edwards threw an int that was returned 92 yds for a TD. The Jets held BUF to just 30 yds rushing (1.7) & kept Edwards from finding a rhythm with 5 sacks pressuring him all day. The Jets are 0-4-1 ATS hosting a div foe. BUF is 6-2 ATS as a div AD. Despite playing only 1 team with a winning record the L4W the Bills have the #18 & #14 units (-1 TO’s) while the Jets have played 3 playoff contenders & have the #14 & #32 units (+0 TO’s). BUF has won the yardage battle in just 2 of its L10 games. They were held to just 163 yds, 1 of 10 on 3rd Dns vs MIA & have scored just 6 pts since putting up 54 on KC. The Jets find themselves in a 3 way tie for the AFC East after 2 ugly losses. They only gained 5 1st Dns & 77 yds in the 2H vs SF running just 46 off plays in the game. The Jets have the edges with Favre at QB, a solid run game with RB Jones are healthier overall & most importantly at home. Look for Mangini to keep his team in pads again to refocus the team.

BALTIMORE 20 Pittsburgh 17 - PIT beat BAL 23-20 in OT on MNF in the 1st meeting but didn’t cover as a 6 pt HF. BAL is 6-1 ATS vs PIT. Flacco was making his 1st road start & he passed for 192 yds (52%) with a 1-0 ratio. BAL had a 146-46 yd edge in the 1H but on 3 drives inside PIT 15 in the 1H they had 1 TD & 2 FG’s. Flacco was sacked 5 times though & the game breaker for BAL was when Flacco fumbled the ball & it was returned for a TD late 3Q. This figures to be a brutal game as BAL has the #19 & #2 units (+7 TO’s) vs PIT’s #26 & #1 units (+7 TO’s). PIT has yet to allow 300 yds in a game TY & are only allowing 3.92 yds per play. PIT has won & covered their L4 road games with a 337-228 yd edge & have a 120 (4.0) to 76 (4.0) rush edge & 30-12 avg score. BAL is 4-1 SU & ATS at home TY with a 308-195 yd edge prior to WAS holding foes to 64 ypg rushing (3.2) with a 24-10 score. Flacco has only passed for 147 ypg (56%) with a 3-4 ratio at home but Roethlisberger has 177 ypg (56%) with an 8-4 ratio away. BAL has a key edge with their #10 pass rush vs PIT’s #29 OL that gave up another 5 sacks LW to DAL and were held to just 89 yds in the 1H. We’ll call this by a FG for now & see how BAL performs on SNF.

CAROLINA 27 Denver 20 - This is a flat spot for CAR who are off a last second win vs GB, a MNF vs TB & have road games vs NYG & NO to close out the year. CAR is 2-6 ATS in their final HG & 3-7-1 ATS hosting an AFC team. DEN has won their L3 road games putting up 460 yds offense & 30 ppg. Cutler passed for 340 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio & outstanding 9.1 ypa in those games. DEN took a big hit LW as RB Hillis (87 ypg 5.5 L3W) left LW’s game with a hamstring injury & his status is unknown. CAR hasn’t been very dominant since their bye barely beating OAK & DET, getting thumped by ATL & needing an outstanding play by WR Smith (52 rec 18.4) to beat GB. CAR has allowed 139 ypg (4.2) rushing in the span which is 39 ypg more than before. DEN’s glaring weakness is its #26 rush defense (140 ypg 4.9) vs CAR #7 rush offense (133 ypg 4.4). They could get MLB DJ Williams & CB Bailey here. The Panthers are 4-1-2 ATS as a favorite TY pending MNF. Cutler will get his yards here in a higher scoring game but the lack of balance by DEN on offense & defensive depth will show here has us siding with CAR by a TD.

KANSAS CITY 17 San Diego 14 - SD barely squeaked out a 20-19 win vs KC in the 1st meeting failing to cover as a 14.5 pt HF after their bye. SD almost lost the game SU as they held off a 2 pt conversion vs a young & exhausted Chiefs team at the end. The road team has now covered 3 straight. SD is 9-3 ATS in div play. KC is 2-5 ATS at home in div play. SD is off a huge “get right” win over OAK with a 372‑163 yd edge where they forced 7 punts, 4 TO’s & 1 SOD. SD has the advantage of 3 extra days of rest coming off 3 straight HG’s but they are only 2-5 SU & ATS since their 30-10 win vs NE. SD’s #30 pass defense (21-10 ratio) has been horrible in the span allowing 252 ypg passing (72%) with an 11-4 ratio & 3 of their 9 sacks in the stretch were vs OAK. While KC was outstated LW vs DEN (27-14 FD 425 260 yds) they were in a position to send the game to OT with a 1st & goal at the DEN 10 on their final drive. They were SOD on the DEN 1 when Thigpen scrambled up the middle for a TD. While Thigpen has cooled the L2W (175 ypg pass 59% 1-1) his athleticism enables him to keep plays alive & alter defensive coverages. SD had the advantage of a short week vs an OAK team in disarray & got a big win but KC is a scrappy division dog TY (4-0 ATS) & pulls a surprise here.

New England 27 OAKLAND 13 - The Raiders are the 3rd team in NFL history to lose 10 games in 6 straight years. With another loss they will be the only team to lose 11 games 6 years in a row. They haven’t scored an offensive TD in the 1H of 9 straight games (240 snaps). NE stayed out on the West Coast after the SEA game to rest the team & are 21-9 ATS on the road. OAK is 6-20 ATS at home & 5-19 ATS in Dec. This will also be the 1st time Randy Moss & LaMont Jordan get to face OAK since joining NE. Al Davis made several comments about NE tampering with Moss before the trade & hinted the incident should have been looked into. NE has the #8 & #16 units (-3 TO’s) vs OAK’s #31 & #26 units (+1 TO’s). NE saw NT Wilfork, LB Bruschi & FS Sanders KO’d LW & Cassel hurt the thumb on his throwing hand. They scored 11 4Q pts for the win & converted an impressive 10 of 18 on 3rd Dns. OAK has been outgained 364-231 with a 22-11 avg score since HC Cable took over & QB Russell (108 ypg 54% 1-3 in his L5 games) may miss here with an ankle injury. OAK’s #8 pass defense has been solid (15-13 ratio) but teams are running at will vs them (159 ypg 4.5). Even in a down year NE has vast edges in coaching, skill position players (TE Miller is OAK’s only player with 20 rec’s TY) & will be very focused in the fight for the #6 Wild Card spot.

NY Giants at DALLAS - The Giants beat the Cowboys 35-14 in the 1st meeting as an 8.5 pt HF & are 8-2 ATS in the series. DAL was very beat up (no Romo) & didn’t put forth much effort with a bye on deck as they were blown out 319-183 in yardage. NYG converted 3 int into 21 pts & held DAL to 3 1st Dns in the 1H. The Giants were in a bad spot LW vs PHI who had extra rest & the off-field distractions caught up to them. DAL was without RB Barber LW & let a 13-6 lead at PIT slip thru their fingers with 7:15 left in the game. DAL could realistically be eliminated from the playoff chase here & the Giants will have their hands full vs a desperate team. Call for the Sun Night Marquee Play after 11:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or Welcome To Northcoast Sports.

Cleveland at PHILADELPHIA - While CLE is down to #3 QB Dorsey here (150 yds 51% 0-1 vs TEN LW) they do catch PHI at a tough time in their schedule. PHI is off a road win vs the Giants & have a road game at WAS & hosts DAL to close out the season. PHI is 5-12 ATS as a non-conf favorite & scored 13 & 7 vs its L2 AFC foes. CLE is 2-0 SU & ATS on MNF TY & will go all out on a national stage to try & save Crennel’s job here but will face a PHI team still alive in the NFC. Tonight’s Play is available after 3:00 ET on the Pay AFTER you Win Basis for just $30. Call 1-800-654-3448! You can also receive the Monday Night Total for just $9 from the PPH on your Northcoast Debit Card for only $9. The Monday Night Total is 7-2 the last 9 weeks.

PRO ANGLES

(3) TENNESSEE
(3) NEW ENGLAND

OVER/UNDERS

3* Packers/Jaguars OVER 45'
3* Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 47
3* Seahawks/Rams OVER 44*
2* Titans/Texans OVER 45
2* 49ers/Dolphins UNDER 43

SYSTEM SELECTION

Play on a non-conf home team in the last 4 weeks that won by 17 or more last week and face a foe that was at home last week

1997-2008: 12-2-1 86%

THIS WEEK'S PLAY: INDIANAPOLIS

Posted : December 11, 2008 10:02 am

blade

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Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

NORTHCOAST POWERSEEP

Division IAA Football Championship - Semi-Finals

JAMES MADISON 28 Montana 21 - '04 Championship game rematch, when JMU won 31-21 in their only other meeting. MT avenged an earlier 45-28 loss to Weber St with a 24-13 win LW. The Grizzlies only had a 427-386 yd edge over the Wildcats but were +3 TO. JMU tied a tm rec'd with 12 straight wins as they beat Villanova for a 2nd time TY, this time by 4. The Dukes had 23-15 FD & 389-310 yd edges over the Wildcats. MT is led by QB Cole Bergquist (196 ypg, 61%, 25-7 ratio) who is also the #3 rusher (322, 2.3). RB Chase Reynolds leads the team with 1,413 (5.8) and 19 rush TD. WR Marc Mariani has 59 rec (18.4) with 15 TD. The Dukes are led by Walter Payton Awd finalist QB Rodney Landers, who is avg 117 ypg (64%) with a 21-4 ratio and is the top rusher with 1,686 (6.7) and 16 TD. RB Eugene Holloman is the #2 rusher with 941 (5.4). Both have outscored foes by an avg of 16.8 ppg but JMU has faced a tougher schedule. The Grizzlies have faced just 4 playoff teams (3-1) while JMU has faced 6 playoff teams (6-0) and IA Duke. Montana also faces a long flight here and we look for them to go home disappointed

Richmond 24 NORTHERN IOWA 21 - First ever meeting. Richmond snapped App St's 13 game playoff win streak and brought ASU's dream of 4 straight IAA titles to an end. The Spiders D forced five 2H TO’s as they outscored App St 27-6 in the 2H for a 33-13 win. UR was actually outgained 362-359 but was +7 in TO's. UNI’s D also played a big part in their 36-34 win as they had a safety and a 36 yd IR TD that proved to be the gm-winning score. The Panthers had a 404-342 yd edge and were +3 TO but all'd New Hamp a 100 yd IR TD on the 1H's final play. Richmond QB Eric Ward is avg 174 ypg (62%) with a 14-7 ratio and is the #2 rusher (361, 2.8). RB Josh Vaughan leads UR with 1,636 (5.2) and 19 TD. UNI QB Pat Grace is avg 165 ypg (62%) with a 12-7 ratio and is the #3 rusher (603, 4.8). Grace was KO'd for part of the 2H LW and while he ret'd his rushing was limited. RB Corey Lewis leads with 1,237 (5.0) and 11 TD. While the Panthers are +21 TO and their D is all'g 17.4 ppg and 302.3 ypg, the Spiders are +23 TO on the yr and their D is all'g just 15.9 ppg and 258.9 ypg. Just as the Spiders got past the Mountaineers LW, look for them to get past the Panthers TW.

Posted : December 11, 2008 10:02 am

blade

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Topic starter

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS

DET #30 vs IND #14 IND #20 vs DET #31) DET had their best chance for a win LW vs MIN but were held to 2
FG’s & SOD on 3 drives inside the MIN 10 in the 1H. They now have to travel to IND & while Dungy & Marinelli
are good friends, IND has massive edges all across the board & even got SS Sanders back LW. PP gives IND
a 370-255 yd edge & DET may be hard pressed for that with Culpepper quest here as Drew Henson may get
the start. This is a huge line but IND dispatched a weak CIN defense easily LW & Manning has a huge day.

4* COLTS 39 LIONS 13

(SF #22 vs MIA #13 MIA #10 vs SF #19) SF has pulled off B2B upset wins vs AFC East foes & are playing
very hard for HC Singletary who stands a very good chance of winning the SF HC job now. MIA is 4-22 ATS
as a fav & MLB Crowder admitted after OAK that the team plays to the level of its competition. MIA is 1-4
ATS in its L5 HG’s TY & while PP likes MIA to have a 370-270 yd edge it calls for SF to keep it close backed
up by their huge special teams edge here.

4* 49ers 18 (+) DOLPHINS 19

(TEN #16 vs HOU #20 HOU #3 vs TEN #3) TEN is 5-0 SU & ATS vs HOU. While they are the AFC South
Champs they don’t have the #1 seed locked up yet. HOU went to a brutally cold weather site with a QB
making his 1st start in a month & picked apart GB with 414 yds passing (67%) with a 2-1 ratio. PP only gives
TEN a 51 yd edge but calls for them to win by a TD. While HOU has the #3 offense they haven’t faced an elite
defense (14, 27, 15, 23) in their 4 game ATS streak. We side with TEN with a very manageable line here.

4* TITANS 24 TEXANS 17

PIT #26 vs BAL #2 BAL #19 vs PIT #1) PIT stole a win from DAL LW as while the defense forced 5 TO’s the
offense had just 96 yds thru the 1st 3Q. BAL went up 14-0 in the 1st 5:30 vs WAS LW & the Redskins only
points were set up by a Flacco int & McGahee fumble in the 4Q on drives totalling 31 yds. BAL is 6-1 ATS vs
PIT but PP calls for a close game at the line but in a lower scoring affair making the total worth a look.
NO PLAY: RAVENS 18 STEELERS 15

2* RAVENS/STEELERS: UNDER

GB #11 vs JAX #15 JAX #21 vs GB #23) GB’s playoff hopes are cooked & its NOT due to the play of Rodgers TY.
The defense simply hasn’t been able to stop the run (27th 4.8 ypc) & despite moving CB Woodson to safety they
allowed 11 pass plays of 17+ yds LW. JAX has serious chemistry issues TY & injuries on the OL & inexperience on
the DL have kept them from playing Jaguar ball. PP has this at the line but this is worth a small look for the Over.
NO PLAY: PACKERS 26 JAGUARS 23

1* PACKERS/JAGUARS: OVER

Posted : December 11, 2008 10:04 am

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LOGICAL APPROACH

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK

HOUSTON + 3 over Tennessee - The Titans wrapped up the AFC South title last week but have not yet clinched the AFC's top seed. That could happen next week when the Titans host Pittsburgh. Houston has played well after starting 0-4, winning 3 in a row and 6 of 9. They remain motivated to achieve the franchise's first winning record and improving upon their 8-8 of last season. Two winnable games remain to finish the season so an upset here gives the Texans a real shot at achieving that goal. Tennessee is not likely to let up because their strength lies with their defense and the Titans did win the first meeting 31-12 but that game was statistically close. With an eye on next week, the Titans are ripe for the upset. Houston's offense has been effective in recent weeks as the running game has resurfaced. And the defense has also fared well during their win streak. Houston wins 20-17.

Other Featured NFL Selections

JACKSONVILLE + 2 ½ over Green Bay - Jacksonville returns home after a pair of dull efforts in losses at Houston and Chicago. They may not have quit on the season but their level of intensity is down from a year ago when they went 11-5. But their disappointing season is now being matched by that of the Pack as Green Bay's fallen from Playoff contention following 3 straight losses including the last 2 weeks at home. It's hard to back a favored Packer team that is just 2-4 on the road with the wins coming at winless Detroit and at 2-11 Seattle. The Jags have the better overall talent and are better positioned for a better effort returning home. With the Colts and Ravens on deck, this is their best chance for a win the rest of the way. Fundamentally the Jaguars have a significant edge in stopping the run and the Packers' pass offense has not been sharp of late. The teams are statistically even which rarely makes a case for a road favorite. Jacksonville wins 23-16.

KANSAS CITY + 5 over San Diego - The Chargers are one of this season''s biggest busts, notwithstanding last week's explosion against lowly Oakland. The Chiefs continue to play hard but keep coming up just short on the scoreboard. They are better than their 2-11 record and gave San Diego a tight ball game earlier this season. The Chargers are just 1-5 on the road this season and have just played 3 straight at home, making this an unfavorable scheduling situation, especially for a team playing out the string. Kansas City has defeated the Chargers here in 8 of their last 10 meetings. The Chiefs are a very young team and along with youthful mistakes comes a greater chance for improvement and the Chiefs fit that profile on both counts. The defense has been yielding but has also excelled in creating turnovers. The Chargers have not fared well away from home this season and this remains a bitter rivalry for the hosts. Kansas City wins 24-17.

Minnesota + 3 over ARIZONA - Arizona has wrapped up the NFC West title while Minnesota clings to a one game lead over Chicago in the NFC North and thus plays with the greater need. The Cardinals and Vikings are each 8-5 but note that Arizona's success is largely due to their 5-0 record within their very weak NFC West where the other 3 teams are a collective 5-21 outside the Division. Arizona itself is just 3-5 outside the NFC West. Minnesota has the far better defense and the time worn adage of a good defense stops a good offense should apply here. Of specific concern to Arizona is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league in rushing. Minnesota has the league's #2 rush defense (73 ypg) which suggests the Vikes will concentrate on defending the pass and forcing the Cards to move the ball using their weakness. Those pending DL suspensions are a concern for the Viking which could make the Vikes a bigger underdog if they are unable to play. But there are still enough edges to call for the upset. Minnesota wins 27-23.

New Orleans/Chicago OVER 44
Green Bay/Jacksonville OVER 45
Detroit/Indianapolis UNDER 45
Washington/Cincinnati UNDER 37
Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER 34
Denver/Carolina OVER 47
Minnesota/Arizona OVER 48
Cleveland/Philadelphia UNDER 38

Posted : December 11, 2008 10:05 am

blade

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THE SPORTS MEMO

MARTY OTTO
BUFFALO AT NY JETS
Recommendation: New York

The Bills were officially eliminated from the playoffs thanks to Baltimore’s win on Sunday Night. It may be a merciful act considering Buffalo is a battered and beleaguered unit right. After a promising 5-1 start the Bills were hit hard by the injury bug on defense, forced to continuously shuffle in corners, safeties, linebackers and defensive linemen alike. They lost their two best DBs for extended amounts of time and their best pass rusher (likely for the season). Since the hot start Buffalo is in the midst of a 1-6 SU and ATS run that won’t end any time soon. It’s not just the defense but the offense, which doesn’t have a second option at WR, lost its playmaking TE and has shuffled QBs thanks to injury. Lee Evans has been completely taken away by the opposition leaving Marshawn Lynch to do the work of 11 men. The Bills will find it difficult to match the Jets intensity as New York looks to snap an embarrassing skid of their own, losing to Denver and San Francisco in the past two weeks. The Jets will control the line of scrimmage defensively and double up on Evans, forcing the Bills into a no win situation. NY stays alive in the division and wild card race with a win on Sunday.

BRENT CROW
TENNESSEE -3 AT HOUSTON
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans clinched the AFC South title and a home playoff game last week with their win over Cleveland. What still remains for this Titans team is home field advantage throughout the postseason. They will face a Houston
team that has won three straight to get to 6-7 on the year. The Texans are 4-1 at home on the year as well, but own just one win over a team with a winning record on the year. That win was a 29-28 victory over Miami with their other wins coming against winless Detroit, one-win Cincinnati, 4-9 Cleveland and Jacksonville and the 5-8 Packers. None of those teams play good defense nor do they feature power running games like Tennessee.
This seems like a very cheap price when you consider the Texans defense has had trouble stopping the run all year. Their defense is 24th in the NFL against the run and won’t have much luck against the Titans’ third ranked rushing offense. Tennessee forced three Matt Schaub interceptions and sacked him three times in the first meeting en route to an easy 31-12 Titans’ win. I expect more of the same here and will lay the road chalk.

TIM TRUSHEL
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE -1
Recommendation: Baltimore

The Ravens are one of the three best teams in the AFC. As we see it there is little to no difference between Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Each of the three teams are fundamentally sound on offense while being predisposed toward the running game. On the defensive side they stop the run, bring plenty of pressure on the quarterback and create plenty of turnovers. Perhaps the main significant difference in the three teams is the weakness along the offensive line for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That weakness could come into play here in this matchup as Ben Roethlisberger will be under constant pressure and will likely be forced to make plays. Behind center on the other side of the equation is Joe Flacco. His maturity and solid play behind this offensive line has made all the difference. Overall on the season he has been sacked 18 fewer times and has thrown two fewer interceptions then Roethlisberger. We are not concerned with the situational analysis here as we expect maximum effort from both teams in this huge divisional game. Still it should be noted however that Pittsburgh is off hyped wins against New England and Dallas and may be hard pressed to perform at a peak level. Baltimore is the better fundamental team and with home field advantage we’ll back the Ravens.

ROB VENO
BUFFALO AT NY JETS N/L
Recommendation: New York

Jets found themselves in a “Murphy’s Law” game so to speak last Sunday in San Francisco. If it could go wrong for New York, it did. Five 49er fumbles resulted in only one Jets recovery and one turned into a San Francisco TD. A Jets kickoff return for a touchdown in the third quarter, that would have given them the lead, was called back and broke the momentum New York was building. The Jets needed to capitalize on the opportunities presented to them because fundamentally they had a difficult time on both sides of the ball with San Francisco. Defensively, they were constantly one step behind the Niners short to intermediate passing attack and offensively their own aerial attack was hurried and out of sync. This week’s matchup versus offensively disoriented Buffalo figures to be a solid fit for the revenge minded Jets. The earlier meeting,which went the way of the Bills, was one in which New York stopped the running game cold (allowed 30 rushing yards) but they were hurt by QB Trent Edwards and the passing attack. Expect a reversal of fortunes here as things have changed for Buffalo who dropped out of the playoff hunt last week.

ERIN RYNNING
NEW ENGLAND AT OAKLAND +7
Recommendation: Oakland

The Patriots will continue their trek on the West Coast this week with a trip to Oakland. The Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick were able to escape the Seattle Seahawks last week with a late surge for a 24-21 victory. Troubling for the Patriots entering this contest is their regression on the defensive side of the football. They’ve now allowed 21, 33, 28 and 34 points over the last four games. Scores like that signal a red flag for a team laying a touchdown on the road. Meanwhile, the Raiders just couldn’t stand prosperity.After back-to-back spread covers on the road, they reverted back to their embarrassing ways with bad losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. Still they’ve shown to be capable at times and after a bit of a refresher they’ll be sitting in a good situation to bring their A-game Sunday.When you consider the matchups between these two teams, the Raiders are certainly capable of being the better defensive team, while owning the stronger running game over the Patriots. We’ll ignore the visually unappealing style of the Raiders and back them at home getting the nice price

TEDDY COVERS
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY +5
Recommendation: Kansas City

This write up needs only one sentence. The 5-8 San Diego Chargers have no business laying more than a field goal on the road against anybody. Period. End of story. But you know me, I just can’t put out a one sentence write-up, so I’ll make my case against the Chargers right here. We’re talking about a team that is 2-5 straight up in their last seven ball games. The two wins during that span? Well, they beat up on the 3-10 Raiders last week in a game that Oakland forgot to show up for. The other win came by a single point, at home against these same Chiefs. Let’s not forget that San Diego is 1-5 SU on the highway this season, losing SU four times as a road favorite. Six of the Chargers eight losses this year have come in games where they were favored. The Chargers have been Super Bowl contenders in each of their previous three seasons, yet they’ve lost at least once to the Chiefs in every one of those years. And it’s been KC playing with enthusiasm and fire in recent weeks, winning on the road at Oakland and taking Denver to the wire this past Sunday. Look for the Chiefs to continue their improved play against a road favorite that has no business in this spread range on Sunday.

FAIRWAY JAY
GREEN BAY -1 AT JACKSONVILLE
Recommendation: Over

Off a Game of the Year winner on the Saints and a nice 11-2 run in the NFL, let’s shoot for our fourth straight Newsletter Best Bet winner this week. Two teams with high expectations have now seen their season’s crumble with both out of the playoff picture. Jacksonville looks like a disinterested team that has tossed in the towel, and Green Bay’s swiss cheese defense allowed 549 yards to Houston last week and was shredded in their two previous road games. The Jaguars have gone 0-4 SU and ATS their last four games. Jacksonville is also 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS at home this year. Both offenses should be willing to let loose against defenses that each rank in the bottom five of their conference in defensive yards-per-point. Jacksonville has played against three top-tier defenses the past four weeks, and should move the ball more easily against the deflated and disinterested Packers.Green Bay’s offense is No. 1 in the NFC in yards-per-point, and Aaron Rogers will put the ball in the air often against a Jaguars’ pass defense that ranks in the bottom-tier in yards-per-pass. The Packers have only played one road game under the total, and that was against the Titans’ top defense. Play this one Over.

JARED KLEIN
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY +5
Recommendation: Kansas City

The San Diego Chargers are still being lined like a team that has a shot at the playoffs as opposed to a 5-8 squad that should be focused on next season. The Chargers are 1-5 on the road this season and one could argue they shouldn’t be laying this type of price in any situation away from Qualcomm Stadium. Simply put, the defense can’t stop anyone ranking 25th in yards allowed and 30th against the pass. That should bode well for first-year starting QB Tyler Thigpen who I have been impressed with over his last seven games: 1,534 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs. If you’ll recall the first meeting between the two teams, the Chiefs lost 20-19 after failing to convert a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Despite the 2-11 record, Kansas City has shown the ability to put points on the board, averaging 22.5 ppg over its last seven games. In fact, when look at both squads’ last seven games, we see KC actually outscored San Diego (20.8 ppg). But the real difference is value. Because of their dismal record, the Chiefs continue to get favorable lines (5-2 ATS run). San Diego is on a 2-5 ATS run this line is simply indicative of the true separation of both teams. Bad team vs. bad team, but the home squad is getting more than a field goal? Take the points.

ED CASH
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA N/L
Recommendation: Atlanta

This marks the second straight huge division road game for the Bucs and I don’t like their chances in the Georgia Dome. Win or lose, Tampa Bay will be coming off of a very physical game at Carolina and playing on a short week. Tampa has had some success on the road this season, going 3-3, but nothing like what they have done at home where they are 6-0. The Falcons are very similar at 5-1 at home and 3-4 on the road. After losing last week on the road at New Orleans, this becomes a huge game for the 8-5 Falcons. They desperately need a win to have any division hopes and a wildcard spot. I was impressed with the Falcons in their last two road games. I like others were initially sceptical of this team but they have proven to be on of the better teams in the NFC. Rookie quarterback,Matt Ryan, plays like a 10-year veteran and has the entire offense under his command. If the Falcons can pick up a few solid defenders in the offseason,a run at the Super Bowl next season is not out of the question. But before we get there a berth in the postseason is within reach and a win this weekend would greatly help their cause. We’ll continue to back NFC South home teams.

DONNIE BLACK
WASHINGTON -7 AT CINCINNATI O/U 36
Recommendation: Over

We are going to take a contrarian opinion in this match up as two of the league’s four worst offenses meet. Statistically the Washington Redskins can move the football from the 20-to-the-20, but they struggle inside the red zone. In the case of Cincinnati, the Bengals simply can not move the football. Washington ranks 15th in the league in total yardage but is ahead of only Oakland, Cincinnati and St. Louis in points per game. Combined these two average just 28.6 offensive points per game as Washington scores just 16.8 while Cincinnati averages only 11.8 points per game. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has led this team to a total 29 points combined in the last four games. In six of their last seven games they have been held to 13 points or less. This past week the Bengals became just the twentieth team in the last 20 years to score three or fewer points in back-to-back games. Teams in this situation have gone over to a mark of 16-3. Plus as we run projections we find the market has compensated significantly and we see a great opportunity here to get over the number as neither team will bring much pressure.There will plenty of sustained drive success and we’ll play it over the total.

HELMUT SPORTS
MINNESOTA AT ARIZONA N/L
Recommendation: Arizona

The Cardinals are 5-1 in games at home only losing to the Super Bowl Champion Giants.While record wise at 3-4 it may appear that the Vikings have done OK this season on the road, however in a couple of those road wins they need massive breaks just to squeak the games out. The win against the Saints they had a blocked FG run back for a touchdown. The game against Jacksonville they benefited from a botched snap on the first play that was run in for a touchdown and also recovered the fumble on the ensuing kickoff. Quietly the Cardinals have put together some nice defensive statistics particularly against the run. The currently have the seventh best defense against the rush in yards per rush attempt at 3.79. The Vikings have struggled against the pass at times and this plays right into the strength of the Cardinals, which have the second ranked passing offense in the league. I’m not sure what the status of Gus Frerotte is for next week but if Jackson is forced to play they will certainly be a one-dimensional outfit. In Jackson’s first two starts this season, he barely completed half of his passes and was subsequently benched. Also there is some question to the availability of pro bowl tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams due to violating the league’s steroids and related substances policy.

Posted : December 11, 2008 10:08 am

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