Newsletters 12/15-12/25

Goldsheet

EAGLEBANK BOWL

NAVY (8-4) vs. WAKE FOREST (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Washington, DC (P.A.T.)

Wake Forest 20 - Navy 13--Regular-season meetings have never been foolproof indicators of results in bowl rematches. Nonetheless, a quick review of 16½-point dog Navy's surprising 24-17 win at Winston-Salem Sept. 27 is probably in order. Normally-efficient Wake Forest was its own worst enemy that day, committing an uncharacteristic six TOs, including a career-worst 4 picks by QB Riley Skinner. The Deacs were in a 17-0 hole before the end of the first half, and could not contain the Mid option, in particular bruising FB Eric Kettani, who rumbled for 175 YR. Navy eventually held on despite losing QB Kaipo-Noa Keahaku-Enhada to a hamstring injury before halftime.

We don't, however, envision the dynamics being the same for the rematch. By simply keeping better care of the ball, Wake is unlikely to dig itself another hole and allow Navy to rigidly adhere to its chain-moving option strategy. Granted, the apparent improvement of the Mid "D" (off back-to-back shutouts) is a noteworthy recent development, but Skinner & Co. have been dealing with better stop units all season in the ACC. Skinner rarely self-destructed as he did Sept. 27, tossing only 3 more picks in the other 11 games. A healthier TB Josh Adams and emerging RS frosh RB Brandon Pendergrass should aid the Deacs' ability to establish their own infantry. And though we have respect for Navy's trademark spunk, we don't envision shrewd Wake HC Jim Grobe slipping twice in the same year vs. the Mids.

(08-Navy 24-W. FOR. 17...W.16-14 N.59/292 W.31/43 W.26/40/4/270 N.3/4/0/51 N.2 W.2)

(07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)

(08-Navy +16' 24-17; 07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-3)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy 11 7-4 6-5 27 22 275 65 36-27-5 135 205 32-16-14 +16 2.6 15.5
Wake Forest 12 7-5 5-7 20 18 112 189 27-11-13 116 184 25-9-15 +16 1.7 12.0

NEW MEXICO BOWL

FRESNO STATE (7-5) vs. COLORADO STATE (6-6)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)

Colorado State 31- Fresno State 26--Kudos to CSU's 1st-year mentor Steve Fairchild for restoring respectability to a program that had slipped under Sonny Lubick. Balanced. pro-style Ram attack features 6-5 sr. QB Farris (62%, 2677 YP, 17 TDs, 12 ints.), hammering RB G. Johnson III (1191 YR, 4.7 ypc, 10 TDs, 27 catches) & solid trio of targets in WRs Greer (62 catches), Morton (48, 10 TDs) & 6-6 sr. TE Sperry (37, 5 TDs). Yielding defense (30 ppg, 119th in sacks!) had cluster DB injuries, but that unit will be boosted with the return of difference-making Ss Kubiak & Pagnotta.

FSU's more ground-oriented offense (29 ppg), directed by 6-5 sr. QB Tom Brandstater (60%, 17 TDs, 11 ints.) missed injured big-play RB Matthews (603 YR, 6 TDs in 7 games) down the stretch, as Harding (702 YR) & Miller (699 YR, 6.5 ypc) lacked that extra gear. Vanilla, seldom-blitzing defense (30 ppg) had big trouble vs. the rush (197 ypg, 5.3 ypc) after injury to run-stuffing DT Monga (he won't be back), while soft 2ndary had nation-low 4 ints. (only 3 in '07).

So, in clash between old WAC rivals, prefer healthier, combative CSU (nearly upset TCU & BYU!) vs. disappointed, error-prone Bulldogs (109th in TO margin), who never fully shook off bitter 13-10 home loss vs. Wisconsin Sept. 13, when RS frosh PK Goessling shanked 3 FGs. Coach Pat Hill, who interviewed for the Washington job but withdrew his name, is "bowling" for 9th time in L10Ys (dog has covered all 8 of his bowls; Fresno 0-2 vs. MWC!). But Fairchild no neophyte, having helped Lubick prepare for 5 bowls as his assistant.

Morever, the MWC has the best winning bowl % L3Ys (9-4 SU), and the Bulldogs are 4-20 as chalk since their 50-42 USC defeat in late 2005. Plus, judging from shrinking, increasingly-disenchanted fan base, doubt usually-large Red Wave contingent makes trek to Land of Enchantment.

(06-Colorado State +13' 35-23...SR: Colorado State 6-5)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Fresno St. 12 7-5 2-10 29 30 177 207 44-19-17 197 196 43-21-18 -11 -.2 18.1
Colorado St. 11 5-6 6-5 24 31 133 241 33-14-16 193 224 44-18-20 +2 -2.0 13.3

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

MEMPHIS (6-6) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (7-5)

Saturday, Dec. 20 Night at St. Petersburg, FL (FieldTurf)

*SOUTH FLORIDA 32 - Memphis 28--Although this "newbie" bowl game at the domed home of baseball's Tampa Bay Rays is only a short drive from campus of South Florida, seriously doubt disappointed Bulls fans will show up in droves after USF dropped 5 of its last 7 games to fall out of the top 10 all the way down to this minor postseason bid.

While the superior speed & athleticism of their defense might allow the Bulls to eventually prevail over Memphis, believe tenacious Tigers (9-2 last 11 as double-digit dog) stand excellent chance of staying inside roomy pointspread. No USF RB has even as many as 400 YR this season, and that very spotty infantry support found star QB Matt Grothe (only 3 TDP vs. 11 ints. in last 5 games!) forcing too many throws into coverage down the stretch. True, Tiger star RB Curtis Steele (1175 YR & 7 TDs on 5.7 ypc) might be stymied by the hard-hitting Bull front 7 permitting fewer than 100 ypg on ground. But with top QB Arkelon Hall now fully recovered from earlier thumb injury and in possession of a deep, veteran stable of WRs (UM's top 5 are all upperclassmen with at least 28 catches in 2008), the Tigers should mount enough of an aerial attack to take this one the distance.

(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Memphis 11 5-6 5-6 28 27 199 231 39-21-18 149 209 39-18-16 -3 -2.3 20.8
SO. FLORIDA 11 6-5 4-7 24 22 147 239 31-18-11 101 208 28-11-15 -4 -2.0 13.0

LAS VEGAS BOWL

BYU (10-2) vs. ARIZONA (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Night at Las Vegas, NV (FieldTurf)

*Byu 30 - Arizona 24--These programs aren't unfamiliar with one another, having met in early-season clashes during both '06 (a 16-13 Arizona win) and last year (BYU prevailing 20-7). Moreover, there are Mike Leach/Texas Tech roots in both offenses, as respective coordinators Robert Anae (Cougars) and Sonny Dykes (Wildcats) arrived at their current positions via Lubbock. But those familiarity aspects stand in contrast to a variety of other elements that appear to favor the Provo bunch, such as BYU making its fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl visit, while Arizona is making its first bowl appearance in ten years. Psychology could also favor the Cougs, licking their wounds after a 48-24 beating administered by blood rival Utah, while the Cats are off a satisfying 31-10 win over hated Arizona State. And remember that Mountain West entries won a surprising 6 of 7 against the Pac-10 this season.

Mostly, however, we slightly prefer the BYU spread offense to that of the Wildcats, who despite uncovering a nice infantry component (slashing frosh RB Keola Antolin, a Las Vegas product), lacked a consistent "vertical" threat this season, with QB Willie Tuitama reluctant to stretch defenses downfield. The Cougs move a bit smoother with QB Max Hall (70% and 34 TDP) and a veteran receiving corps led by WR Austin Collie (95 catches) & TE Dennis Pitta (78 receptions). And Hall is unlikely to self-destruct two games in a row after his uncharacteristic 5-pick effort vs. the Utes.

(07-BYU 20-Arizona 7...B.22-11 B.32/104 A.19/32 B.26/39/0/288 A.28/38/0/223 B.1 A.0)

(07-BYU -3' 20-7...SR: Arizona 11-9-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Byu 11 9-2 3-8 35 22 140 293 50-15-32 143 207 31-16-14 +4 3.8 17.3
Arizona 12 7-5 7-5 37 21 164 237 58-31-22 132 170 29-16-11 +6 3.3 14.6

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

TROY (8-4) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (6-6)

Sunday, December 21 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Troy 30 - Southern Miss 21--We're not hard-pressed to find reasons to support underdog Southern Miss in this matchup. After wobbling through a 5-game losing streak, the Eagles peaked down the stretch, winning & covering their final 4 reg.-season tilts to get back to .500 for rookie head coach Larry Fedora. The rebuilt USM defense finally jelled, permitting just 35 total points over those last 4 games. And the creative Fedora (former o.c. at Oklahoma State) has a multi-dimensional QB in RS frosh Austin Davis (12 TDP, only 2 ints. in last 6 games; 331 YR during last 5), as well as top-notch weapons such as star jr. RB Damion Fletcher, all-conf. sr. TE Shawn Nelson, and terrific true frosh WR DeAndre Brown (12 TDC), a 6-6 mega blue-chipper who was recruited by the likes of Florida & LSU.Still, prefer to lay fair price with a money-making Troy side that's brought home the bacon in 20 of its last 28 games on the line! Trojans not lacking for confidence after TY's highly-competitive losses at Ohio State and LSU, with the latter needing 30 fourth-quarter points to stave off the scrappy visitor's upset bid. Troy's potent spread attack is in the capable hands of quick-trigger Richmond transfer QB Levi Brown (63% for 1711 yards & 14 TDs in last 7 games), and the tough-minded Trojan defense has held 15 of its last 20 foes to 28 points or fewer.

(DNP...SR: Southern Miss 6-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Troy 11 7-4 7-3 30 22 163 230 42-18-21 146 192 31-15-16 +3 2.1 16.3
Southern Miss 12 6-6 7-5 31 24 196 238 49-28-21 145 224 36-12-24 +13 1.3 18.9

Nelly’s Green Sheet

NFL
RATING 5 TENNESSEE (-1) over Pittsburgh
RATING 4 HOUSTON (-7) over Oakland
RATING 3 SEATTLE (+4½) over NY Jets
RATING 2 NY GIANTS (-3) over Carolina
RATING 1 BALTIMORE (+5) over Dallas

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2008

Indianapolis (-6½) JACKSONVILLE (45) 7:15 PM
The NFL network had to be thrilled to land this match-up before the season started but it much less appealing with the Jaguars completely collapsing this season. Indianapolis has not been dominant but the Colts have now won seven consecutive games and should coast into the playoffs as the top wild card team. The Jaguars snapped a four-game losing streak with its first ATS win at home all season long last week but the offense has topped 20 points just once in the last eight games. Jacksonville actually features a far superior run defense to the Colts and the Jaguars could be a dangerous home underdog. COLTS BY 3

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2008

DALLAS (-5) Baltimore (39½) 7:15 PM
What a difference a week makes. Before last week the Ravens looked like a sure playoff bet and the Cowboys chances appeared slim to even make the postseason. The Cowboys scored an impressive win while the Ravens could not hold up in the final minutes. Baltimore needs two of the three AFC East teams to fall apart and although it is possible the Ravens have by far the toughest draw this week. The Dallas defense has had huge performances the last two weeks but Baltimore can match that intensity if there is no mental hangover this week. RAVENS BY 3

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2008

TENNESSEE (-1) Pittsburgh (34½) 12:00 PM
There is no question that the Steelers are a very good team that is a significant threat in the playoffs but Pittsburgh has also had plenty of good fortune this season to win several close games. The Steelers could be understandably flat this week after locking up the division in dramatic fashion last week and the Titans know what is at stake in this clash for home field advantage. Tennessee should bounce back after failing to pull out a win last week with several missed opportunities. TITANS BY 7

Miami (-4) KANSAS CITY (41) 12:00 PM
The Dolphins continue to win games by dominating field position and avoiding turnovers. Miami has been a terrible ATS team in recent weeks but they have now won seven of the past eight games to remain in the AFC East chase. The Dolphins have a tougher finish than the Jets or Patriots with two road games but Miami has won four of six road games this season. The Chiefs collapsed last week and this could be a tough game to get up for but Kansas City’s offense has been productive enough to keep this game interesting. DOLPHINS BY 3

NEW ENGLAND (-8) Arizona (45) 12:00 PM
We all know the numbers with west coast teams on the east coast but this looks like a tricky spot for the Patriots. Last week’s win was an emotional situation and the team stepped up to deliver a convincing win but also faces travel back east. New England has lost outright the last two home games and Pats will be overvalued here. Arizona was flat last week after clinching the division but the Cardinals need to gain some momentum back heading into the playoffs. PATRIOTS BY 3

CLEVELAND (NL) Cincinnati 12:00 PM
The Browns face a short week after Monday’s game and the Bengals enter this game off a big upset over Washington. Cincinnati has not won on the road this season with very few competitive efforts and Cleveland was victorious the first time these teams met early in the year in a sloppy game. Last week’s game was a bit of a fluke. BROWNS BY 10

Philadelphia (NL) WASHINGTON 3:15 PM
With a clear playoff path still in the picture the Redskins laid an egg with an atrocious offensive performance last week. The Skins played a brutal schedule down the stretch but beat the Eagles earlier this season and has actually been a superior team on the road this season. Philadelphia has not been consistent enough to trust as a road favorite and Washington should be motivated in a division game. REDSKINS BY 4

San Francisco (-5) ST. LOUIS (44) 12:00 PM
The Rams appeared to be on the verge of victory but a familiar result led to another loss at home. San Francisco crushed the Rams earlier this season 35-16 and the 49ers have been a competitive team in recent weeks with covers in four of the last five games. San Francisco’s defense has made great strides since the coaching change and it is unlikely that the Rams do anything different. 49ERS BY 7

MINNESOTA (-3) Atlanta (44½) 3:15 PM
The Vikings caught some breaks but played well with QB Jackson starting and Minnesota is starting to look like a more legitimate playoff team. The Vikings would hold all tiebreakers with the Bears but two challenging games are ahead. Atlanta took a big step to enhance its playoff chances with a win last week over Tampa Bay but the Falcons would be best served to win this game as well. The Vikings have an opportunistic defense and a slight edge in a match-up of two strong running games and solid defenses. VIKINGS BY 6

New Orleans (-6½) DETROIT (50) 12:00 PM
More are starting to believe that the Lions have what it takes to go 0-16 but Detroit has had several competitive efforts in recent weeks and the Saints may be in a questionable position following a devastating loss in OT last Thursday. The Saints have been a strong ATS team and have only lost to quality teams this season as New Orleans has taken care of business as a favorite this season, going 5-1 on the year. New Orleans is still technically alive and will play hard. SAINTS BY 10

NY GIANTS (-3) Carolina (39½) 12:00 PM
There are growing concerns about the Giants offense without WR Burress after back-to- back losses but the Giants have faced two of the top defenses in the league. Carolina can take over home field advantage with a win this week but the Panthers have not been a strong road team this season. Just as people start to doubt New York the Giants could come up with a big game to take back charge of the NFC. Carolina is 0-3 on the road against winning teams this year. NY GIANTS BY 7

NY Jets (-4½) SEATTLE (44) 3:05 PM
The Jets somehow found a way to win last week in what should have been a crushing blow to the playoff hopes. New York has had three consecutive lousy performances and the Jets have lost all there games on the west coast this season but last week’s win could be the wake-up call the team needs. Seattle has been competitive in recent weeks but has won just once at home all season long in a dismal season. The negativity continues to grow for the Jets and this will be a send-off game for Coach Holmgren so a strong effort is expected. JETS BY 1

Houston (-7) OAKLAND (44) 3:05 PM
The Texans have now won four straight games for another strong late season run and last week’s win over Tennessee legitimizes the improvements, particularly on defense. Oakland has mailed in the season with lopsided losses the last two weeks and the Raiders have only won once this season at home, S/U or ATS. It is hard to argue with what Houston has been doing and the offense should have a successful week against a bad Raiders defense. TEXANS BY 14

DENVER (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
The Broncos now have some pressure on them after falling badly in Carolina last week and having San Diego pull out a miracle victory. The Broncos would be best served to care of a defeated Buffalo squad rather than have to go to San Diego next week with a playoff spot on the line. Buffalo had an upset locked up last week before an inexplicable fumble and this will be the third consecutive away game for the Bills with long travel out west. Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in the last eight games, Denver is 0-7 ATS at home this season. BRONCOS BY 7

TAMPA BAY (NL) San Diego 7:15 PM
The Bucs have lost two games in a row but the remaining schedule is favorable as Tampa Bay hosts two losing teams facing cross country travel. The Bucs are 6-0 at home this season with only two missed covers by narrow margins. San Diego should have had its season ended last week and the Chargers can not be trusted after wins over two of the worst teams in the league. If Garcia is back for Tampa Bay the Bucs should deliver and take a step towards the playoffs. BUCS BY 10

MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2008

CHICAGO (-5) Green Bay (42) 7:35 PM
This NFC North clash still has significant meaning and the Packers would love to knock the Bears out of the playoffs despite a horribly disappointing season and a four-game losing streak. Chicago was very fortunate to win last week and the defense has not lived up to expectations this season. Green Bay dominated the Bears earlier this season and could win again in this match-up. PACKERS BY 3

Nelly’s Green Sheet

EAGLE BANK BOWL 10:00 AM

RFK Stadium - Washington D.C. ESPN Wake Fore st (-3) Navy (42)

Navy finished the season 8-4 despite starting the year 1-2 and the Midshipmen led the nation in rushing offense, averaging 298 yards per game. Navy has also covered in f our consecutive bowl games but coach Ken Niumatalolo was not the head coach for all but last year’s narrow loss. Wake Forest closed the season on a 2-5 ATS run and finishing the year just 7-5 was a bit of a disappointment considering that the Demon Deacons were in contention for a division title for much of the year. Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe has 2-1 record in bowl games, splitting the last two years. Wake Forest should have a substantial defensive edge in this match-up as the defense allowed just 300 yards per game with strong numbers against the run and there has been ample time to prepare for Navy’s unique offense. The Demon Deacons were a team that was banged up most of the season and could finally live up to expectations with a solid bowl effort as a few key players should be at full health. Wake Forest and Navy have both been two of the top teams in the nation in turnover margin and Navy enters this game incredibly off back-to-back shutout wins. Those results may have watered down some very average defensive numbers for the Midshipmen for most of the season. Motivation might be a bit of a question for Wake Forest as this is not a marquee bowl game but playing Navy in a relatively nearby venue should keep the focus there. Wake Forest owns the more veteran team and coaching staff and Navy may be a bit overvalued based on recent competitive bowl efforts . Despite lacking an elite team, the ACC closed the
season as the strongest rated conference. WAKE 24-17

RATING 3: WAKE FOREST (-3) RATING 1: ‘UNDER 42’

NEW MEXICO BOWL 1:30 PM

University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico ESPN Fresno State (-3) Colorado State (60)

The Bulldogs managed to make a return bowl trip but finishing 7-5 was well below preseason expectations. The Bulldogs only won twice ATS all season long, at one point failing to cover in nine straight games. The Bulldogs allowed more yards than they gained this season and had one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. On the year Fresno State allowed over 30 points per game on average. Coach Pat Hill owns a 4-4 bowl record for Fresno State including winning four of the last five games since ’02. It has to be considered a successful season for first-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild as the Rams finished 6-6 after going just 3-9 last year. The Rams got to .500 despite allowing 408 yards per game and nearly 30 points per game, numbers considerably greater than the offense produced. This game is being played on the New Mexico’s home field a venue that Colorado State played at last season so there should some familiarity for many players. The Mountain West rated considerably stronger than the WAC this season and Colorado State managed to go 4-4 in league play, playing competitive games against two of the top teams in the conference. Fresno State is likely not thrilled to be in this game and injuries have greatly weakened the Bulldogs defense. Colorado State should play tough in this game. CSU 31-27

RATING 1: COLORADO STATE (+3) RATING 1: ‘UNDER 60’

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL 3:30 PM

Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, Florida ESPN2 South Florida (-12½) Memphis (52)

The Bulls would have to be on the short list of the most disappointing teams in the nation as this appeared to be a team that could win the Big East. Statistically South Florida has the numbers to appear as a high quality team as they allow just 291 yards per game while gaining close to 400 yards per game but turnovers and inconsistent play have been problems. This will be a favorable venue for South Florida but the enthusiasm could be low for this bowl game given how poorly the team has played in the last several games, losing four of the past five to finish 2-5 in Big East play. Memphis started the season 0-3 but rallied to win six of the final nine games to make the postseason. Like USF, Memphis has severely out-gained opponents this season but it has not always translated into wins. Both of these teams lost badly in bowl games last season but Memphis may be more motivated to deliver a redeeming effort this season. South Florida should own significant edges on defense but the Bulls have been unreliable in the favorite role while Memphis can be a dangerous underdog with an offense that can score points. Memphis dealt with significant injuries this season and given the rest and recovery period prior to this game the Tigers could have a stronger team at this point in the year than the unit they played with most of the season. South Florida likely continues to underachieve. MEMPHIS 31-27

RATING 4: MEMPHIS (+12½) RATING 2: ‘OVER 52’

LAS VEGAS BOWL 7:00 PM

Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada ESPN Arizona (-3) Byu (62)

In his fifth season at Arizona, Coach Mike Stoops finally has the Wildcats playing in a bowl game. Arizona finished 7-5 and had a winning Pac-10 record led by a defense that allowed only 302 yards per game. Arizona also scored 37 points per game this season, although the numbers are a bit misleading with a few blowouts padding the statistics. After going 11-2 last season and winning this bowl game each of the past two years BYU is back with a 10-2 mark and ready to face another Pac-10 team. Earlier this season BYU beat Washington and UCLA and last season BYU beat Arizona in Provo, 20-7 so these teams will be familiar with one another. Arizona has a higher scoring average than BYU despite the Cougars having a far more productive offense in terms of yardage. Arizona was just 1-4 ATS on the season away from home and BYU will be much more comfortable in this venue, having played in Las Vegas twice last year. The Arizona defense is allowing considerably more yardage per game but BYU is giving up fewer yards per rush and actually has the superior scoring defense. BYU will not be intimidated by the bowl game or a Pac-10 opponent and Arizona has not played in a post-season game since 1998. Although BYU had higher expectations going into the season this is not a game that will be taken lightlywhile Arizona may simply be happy to be there. BYU 31-28

RATING 1: BYU (+3) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 62’

NEW ORLEANS BOWL 7:15 PM

Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana ESPN Troy (-4) Southern Mississippi (55)

Many questioned the decision by Southern Miss to go another direction and part with longtime coach Jeff Bower but in his first season new coach Larry Fedora has the Golden Eagles back in a bowl game. Last year Southern Miss actually finished the regular season 7-5 so at 6-6 it has actually been a small step back and the Eagles needed four straight wins to close out the season to get there. The Southern Miss offense has been productive, posting 434 yards per game with a solid run/pass balance. The defense stepped up late in the year with just 35 points allowed in the final four games and turnovers have gone the Eagles way most of the season with a strong margin. Most expected last year’s Sun Belt champion Florida Atlantic to again take the conference but Troy dominated most Sun Belt games and returns to a bowl game after missing out last year despite an 8-4 record. 8-4 was good enough to make the postseason this year even though the Trojans were dealt a major blow with an injury to the original starting QB Jamie Hampton. Levi Brown has filled in admirably as the offense has averaged 34 points per game since he took over. Troy has a solid edge defensively in this match-up and the strength of schedule edge for Southern Miss is not that significant as Troy played several strong non-conference games and Conference USA had several marginal teams this year. Troy dominated Rice at the end of the 2006 season in this bowl game and a similar result may be in order this year as the Trojans have been impressive. TROY 38-28

RATING 4: TROY (-4) RATING 3: ‘OVER 55’

POINSETTIA BOWL 7:00 PM

Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California ESPN Tcu (-2½) Boise State (46)

Many of the early bowl games often lack intrigue but this year the Poinsettia Bowl has a gem with two of the top non-BCS conference teams in the nation. Boise State is undefeated but was left of the BCS roster as Utah also went undefeated. Utah barely beat TCU this season so this will be an opportunity to make a statement for the Broncos. Boise State has incredibly dominant numbers this season, out-scoring opponents by an average of over 27 points per game with only two games all season being decided by single-digits. TCU faced a much tougher schedule and the two teams that beat the Horned Frogs are playing in BCS bowls. Although Boise State has excellent numbers on defense, TCU has incredible numbers on defense with the top ranked run defense in the nation while allowing fewer than eleven points per game and only 215 yards per game. TCU is not known for offense but the Frogs averaged 35 points per game and often the offense is set up in favorable situations from the defense. Everyone remembers Boise State’s big win over Oklahoma two seasons ago but the Broncos have lost outright in three of the last four bowl games. TCU meanwhile is 5-0 ATS in the last five bowl games including a close loss to Boise State in the 2003 Forth Worth Bowl. At first glance it appears odd to see Boise State as an underdog with a perfect record but TCU has been that impressive. The Frogs have been a fantastic favorite with an 11-3 ATS mark in the last 14 games but Boise State has also excelled in the rare instances that they have played as underdogs . Although both teams are considered among the best of non-BCS conference teams neither has many impressive wins. Boise State won at Oregon but the rest of the schedule was light and TCU lost its two toughest games. TCU 28-21

RATING 3: TCU (-2½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 49’

HAWAII BOWL 7:00 PM

Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, Hawaii ESPN HAWAII (-1½) Notre Dame (48)

Increased scrutiny continues to pile on the Notre Dame program and coaching staff but a reluctant vote of confidence was given to Coach Charlie Weis despite considerable late season speculation. Weis has never won a bowl games and the Irish have now lost nine consecutive bowl games, including losing ATS in each of the past seven. Hosting this game did not look like a possibility early in the season in Coac h McMackin’s first year but the Warriors won six of eight down the stretch before a narrow loss in the finale to become bowl eligible. Hawaii has won each of the last three times they have played in this home bowl game but the Warriors lost twice at home this season and played a very weak schedule. These teams feature nearly identical numbers on offense with both teams partial to the passing game but defensively the Irish have stronger overall numbers. Hawaii allows more sacks than just about every team in the nation with a sound game plan the Irish should be able to create some big plays on defense. The last three wins for Hawaii came against teams that have a combined 7-30 record and Hawaii also had a win against a FCS team early in the year so there is not much substance on the resume. Notre Dame has solid numbers against the pass this season and five of the six losses came against major conference bowl teams. Notre Dame scored 23 or more points nine times this season so the offense is capable despite the negative press. NOTRE DAME 28-24

RATING 2: NOTRE DAME (+1½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 48’

MOTOR CITY BOWL 6:30 PM

Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan ESPN Central Michigan (-7) Florida Atlantic (62½)

The Chippewas were unable to defend the MAC title and the final two games of the season were ugly losses for Central Michigan. Central Michigan allowed 424 yards per game and surrendered nearly 31 points per game on the season. Central Michigan can score with a high powered passing offense that averages 292 yards per game but the defense took a huge step back this season. Central Michigan has played in the Motor City Bowl each of the past two seasons, losing to Purdue last season and beating the Sun Belt’s Middle Tennessee State two years ago. Florida Atlantic received its second consecutive bowl bid despite falling short of expectations this season through a tough schedule. The Owls won the New Orleans Bowl last season and Coach Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game in his career. Statistically the Owls have been a little stronger defensively but not quite as productive on offense compared with Central Michigan. After a 1-5 start to the season where Florida Atlantic played four road games in five weeks the Owls closed the year winning five of six and the offense put up huge numbers late in the season. FAU is playing better ball heading into this game and the location edge should not be a huge advantage for Central Michigan even though the Chippewas have experience at Ford Field. FAU is a veteran team that has proven itself in big spots before. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38-31 RATING 2:

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) RATING 2: ‘OVER 62½’

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL 12:00 PM

Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina ESPN North Carolina (PK) West Virginia (44)

Both teams had successful but somewhat underwhelming seasons as West Virginia fell well short of lofty preseason expectations and North Carolina faded after a hot start had the Tar Heels in the ACC driver’s seat. In his second year at UNC Butch Davis has turned around the program with the first winning season since ‘01 and the first bowl trip since ’04. In what looked like an easy path to through the Big East, West Virginia stumbled to two conference losses and two non-conference losses although two losses came in OT. North Carolina will have a favorable location for this match-up and West Virginia has not been a strong bowl team in recent history sans last year’s big win over Oklahoma. The Mountaineers feature one of the top rushing offenses in the nation and although QB Pat White did not live up to Heisman-type expectations he is still a dynamic playmaker. West Virginia’s defense is allowing 16 points per game and the Mountaineers have slightly superior numbers on both sides of the ball but North Carolina did play through a tougher schedule. Injuries derailed some momentum for the Tar Heels but North Carolina beat six bowl teams this year and three of four losses came by three points or less. West Virginia had success under Coach Stewart in last year’s Fiesta Bowl but this is a much different situation and motivation will not be nearly the same as Stewart’s job was in limbo at that time. Although North Carolina did not play its best ball down the stretch the overall body of work is strong for the Tar Heels and West Virginia may still be overvalued based on what was supposed to be for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has not risen up to play well in big games this year. UNC 17-14RATING 1:

NORTH CAROLINA (PK) RATING 4: ‘UNDER 44’

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL 3:30 PM

Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, Florida ESPN Florida State (-5) Wisconsin (52½)

The Seminoles were embarrassed by Florida in its last game of the season on a national stage and this will be a key game for seasoned Coach Bowden to finish the season strong. FSU finished the season with great numbers on defense allowing only 291 yards per game and according the Sagarin ratings the Seminoles were the best team in the best conference in the nation. Wisconsin quickly climbed high into the rankings early in the season but a four-game collapse to start the Big Ten season has led to a very disappointing year for the Badgers. In a season that began with Rose Bowl hopes this is not the bowl game the Badgers expected to be in and enthusiasm around the program is as low as it has been in several years. Wisconsin’s defense allowed at least 20 points in eight of the last nine games and the offense has really struggled in games where the running game has not been effective. Turnovers have been a problem for Wisconsin and QB Dustin Sherer has had limited playing time in big games after starting the season as the back-up. The Badgers have been a lousy ATS team and Wisconsin’s best two wins are pretty unimpressive with narrow wins over Fresno State and Minnesota as the only wins over bowl eligible programs. Florida State beat five bowl teams this season through a tough ACC schedule and Florida State has a great history of success in bowl games. Wisconsin has lost three of its last five bowl games and this venue will feature an obvious location advantage for the Seminoles. FSU 31-13 RATING 5:

FLORIDA STATE (-5) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 52½’

EMERALD BOWL 7:00 PM

AT&T Park – San Francisco, California ESPN California (-7) Miami, FL (49½)

The Bears will have a big location advantage in this bowl games and California has been a very successful bowl team in recent years, winning S/U in seven of the past nine games with many high scoring results. Cal did not quite live up to expectations this season with four losses but the Bears were a great ATS team, covering in nine games. After a five-game win streak midseason the Hurricanes appeared back on the national map but Miami lost the final two games of the season as the defense uncharacteristically allowed 79 points in those two games. The Bears did not match the huge offensive production of past recent seasons under Coach Tedford but the defense was pretty strong, allowing just 314 yards per game and also producing a great deal of turnovers. Over the last six games Cal allowed an average of just 18 points per game and with Miami ’s offense struggling to find consistent gains on the ground or in the air this should be a lower scoring game. Both teams are in the top 25 in the nation in terms of sacks so both QBs should be under significant pressure and neither team should have a strong enough running game to carry the way. If you take away blowout wins over Washington State and Washington the scoring numbers drop considerably for the Bears and the big games for California have generally been low scoring defensive games. The conditions in San Francisco in late December are typically windy and cool so this could be a bowl game that is more impacted by weather than many of the other locations and a lower scoring game should be expected between two strong defenses and two offenses that never quite got going to its full potential this season. CALIFORNIA 24-13

RATING 3: CALIFORNIA (-7) RATING 5: ‘UNDER 49½’

INDEPENDENCE BOWL 7:00 PM ESPN

Northern Illinois (-2) Louisiana Tech (47)

The Independence Bowl has some great history and in the last four years this game has been decided by a touchdown or less featuring major conference teams such as Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. With due respect to Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech for making the postseason, bowl organizers and the Shreveport chamber of commerce have to greet this match-up with dread as neither the Big 12 or the SEC could fill this spot. Northern Illinois has had a remarkable season after just two wins in 2007 and with three losses by four points or less the Huskies nearly had an even stronger season. Louisiana Tech makes a short trip to play its first bowl game since 2001 and the Bulldogs are headed in the right direction with substantial improvement in each of the first two years for head coach Derek Dooley. Both teams run the ball effectively although the numbers give Northern Illinois a substantial edge on defense. Louisiana Tech faced a tougher schedule with several high powered offenses in the WAC and a tough non-conference schedule that hurt the statistics. Louisiana Tech typically enjoys a very strong home field edge and that advantage should carry over to some degree in this neutral but convenient venue for the Bulldogs. Northern Illinois has an experienced team but the Huskies closed the season losing three of the final four games while Louisiana Tech won four of the final five and nearly beat Nevada in the final game of the season. The Bulldogs should make the most of this opportunity. LA TECH 28-24RATING 2:

LOUISIANA TECH (+2) RATING 3: ‘OVER 47’

GOLDSHEET FIRST 14 COLLEGE BOWLS AND WRITE-UPS!!!

EAGLEBANK BOWL

NAVY (8-4) vs. WAKE FOREST (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Washington, DC (P.A.T.)

Wake Forest 20 - Navy 13--Regular-season meetings have never been foolproof indicators of results in bowl rematches. Nonetheless, a quick review of 16½-point dog Navy's surprising 24-17 win at Winston-Salem Sept. 27 is probably in order. Normally-efficient Wake Forest was its own worst enemy that day, committing an uncharacteristic six TOs, including a career-worst 4 picks by QB Riley Skinner. The Deacs were in a 17-0 hole before the end of the first half, and could not contain the Mid option, in particular bruising FB Eric Kettani, who rumbled for 175 YR. Navy eventually held on despite losing QB Kaipo-Noa Keahaku-Enhada to a hamstring injury before halftime.

We don't, however, envision the dynamics being the same for the rematch. By simply keeping better care of the ball, Wake is unlikely to dig itself another hole and allow Navy to rigidly adhere to its chain-moving option strategy. Granted, the apparent improvement of the Mid "D" (off back-to-back shutouts) is a noteworthy recent development, but Skinner & Co. have been dealing with better stop units all season in the ACC. Skinner rarely self-destructed as he did Sept. 27, tossing only 3 more picks in the other 11 games. A healthier TB Josh Adams and emerging RS frosh RB Brandon Pendergrass should aid the Deacs' ability to establish their own infantry. And though we have respect for Navy's trademark spunk, we don't envision shrewd Wake HC Jim Grobe slipping twice in the same year vs. the Mids.

(08-Navy 24-W. FOR. 17...W.16-14 N.59/292 W.31/43 W.26/40/4/270 N.3/4/0/51 N.2 W.2)

(07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)

(08-Navy +16' 24-17; 07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-3)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy 11 7-4 6-5 27 22 275 65 36-27-5 135 205 32-16-14 +16 2.6 15.5
Wake Forest 12 7-5 5-7 20 18 112 189 27-11-13 116 184 25-9-15 +16 1.7 12.0

NEW MEXICO BOWL

FRESNO STATE (7-5) vs. COLORADO STATE (6-6)

Saturday, December 20 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)

Colorado State 31- Fresno State 26--Kudos to CSU's 1st-year mentor Steve Fairchild for restoring respectability to a program that had slipped under Sonny Lubick. Balanced. pro-style Ram attack features 6-5 sr. QB Farris (62%, 2677 YP, 17 TDs, 12 ints.), hammering RB G. Johnson III (1191 YR, 4.7 ypc, 10 TDs, 27 catches) & solid trio of targets in WRs Greer (62 catches), Morton (48, 10 TDs) & 6-6 sr. TE Sperry (37, 5 TDs). Yielding defense (30 ppg, 119th in sacks!) had cluster DB injuries, but that unit will be boosted with the return of difference-making Ss Kubiak & Pagnotta.

FSU's more ground-oriented offense (29 ppg), directed by 6-5 sr. QB Tom Brandstater (60%, 17 TDs, 11 ints.) missed injured big-play RB Matthews (603 YR, 6 TDs in 7 games) down the stretch, as Harding (702 YR) & Miller (699 YR, 6.5 ypc) lacked that extra gear. Vanilla, seldom-blitzing defense (30 ppg) had big trouble vs. the rush (197 ypg, 5.3 ypc) after injury to run-stuffing DT Monga (he won't be back), while soft 2ndary had nation-low 4 ints. (only 3 in '07).

So, in clash between old WAC rivals, prefer healthier, combative CSU (nearly upset TCU & BYU!) vs. disappointed, error-prone Bulldogs (109th in TO margin), who never fully shook off bitter 13-10 home loss vs. Wisconsin Sept. 13, when RS frosh PK Goessling shanked 3 FGs. Coach Pat Hill, who interviewed for the Washington job but withdrew his name, is "bowling" for 9th time in L10Ys (dog has covered all 8 of his bowls; Fresno 0-2 vs. MWC!). But Fairchild no neophyte, having helped Lubick prepare for 5 bowls as his assistant.

Morever, the MWC has the best winning bowl % L3Ys (9-4 SU), and the Bulldogs are 4-20 as chalk since their 50-42 USC defeat in late 2005. Plus, judging from shrinking, increasingly-disenchanted fan base, doubt usually-large Red Wave contingent makes trek to Land of Enchantment.

(06-Colorado State +13' 35-23...SR: Colorado State 6-5)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Fresno St. 12 7-5 2-10 29 30 177 207 44-19-17 197 196 43-21-18 -11 -.2 18.1
Colorado St. 11 5-6 6-5 24 31 133 241 33-14-16 193 224 44-18-20 +2 -2.0 13.3

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

MEMPHIS (6-6) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (7-5)

Saturday, Dec. 20 Night at St. Petersburg, FL (FieldTurf)

*SOUTH FLORIDA 32 - Memphis 28--Although this "newbie" bowl game at the domed home of baseball's Tampa Bay Rays is only a short drive from campus of South Florida, seriously doubt disappointed Bulls fans will show up in droves after USF dropped 5 of its last 7 games to fall out of the top 10 all the way down to this minor postseason bid.

While the superior speed & athleticism of their defense might allow the Bulls to eventually prevail over Memphis, believe tenacious Tigers (9-2 last 11 as double-digit dog) stand excellent chance of staying inside roomy pointspread. No USF RB has even as many as 400 YR this season, and that very spotty infantry support found star QB Matt Grothe (only 3 TDP vs. 11 ints. in last 5 games!) forcing too many throws into coverage down the stretch. True, Tiger star RB Curtis Steele (1175 YR & 7 TDs on 5.7 ypc) might be stymied by the hard-hitting Bull front 7 permitting fewer than 100 ypg on ground. But with top QB Arkelon Hall now fully recovered from earlier thumb injury and in possession of a deep, veteran stable of WRs (UM's top 5 are all upperclassmen with at least 28 catches in 2008), the Tigers should mount enough of an aerial attack to take this one the distance.

(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Memphis 11 5-6 5-6 28 27 199 231 39-21-18 149 209 39-18-16 -3 -2.3 20.8
SO. FLORIDA 11 6-5 4-7 24 22 147 239 31-18-11 101 208 28-11-15 -4 -2.0 13.0

LAS VEGAS BOWL

BYU (10-2) vs. ARIZONA (7-5)

Saturday, December 20 Night at Las Vegas, NV (FieldTurf)

*Byu 30 - Arizona 24--These programs aren't unfamiliar with one another, having met in early-season clashes during both '06 (a 16-13 Arizona win) and last year (BYU prevailing 20-7). Moreover, there are Mike Leach/Texas Tech roots in both offenses, as respective coordinators Robert Anae (Cougars) and Sonny Dykes (Wildcats) arrived at their current positions via Lubbock. But those familiarity aspects stand in contrast to a variety of other elements that appear to favor the Provo bunch, such as BYU making its fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl visit, while Arizona is making its first bowl appearance in ten years. Psychology could also favor the Cougs, licking their wounds after a 48-24 beating administered by blood rival Utah, while the Cats are off a satisfying 31-10 win over hated Arizona State. And remember that Mountain West entries won a surprising 6 of 7 against the Pac-10 this season.

Mostly, however, we slightly prefer the BYU spread offense to that of the Wildcats, who despite uncovering a nice infantry component (slashing frosh RB Keola Antolin, a Las Vegas product), lacked a consistent "vertical" threat this season, with QB Willie Tuitama reluctant to stretch defenses downfield. The Cougs move a bit smoother with QB Max Hall (70% and 34 TDP) and a veteran receiving corps led by WR Austin Collie (95 catches) & TE Dennis Pitta (78 receptions). And Hall is unlikely to self-destruct two games in a row after his uncharacteristic 5-pick effort vs. the Utes.

(07-BYU 20-Arizona 7...B.22-11 B.32/104 A.19/32 B.26/39/0/288 A.28/38/0/223 B.1 A.0)

(07-BYU -3' 20-7...SR: Arizona 11-9-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Byu 11 9-2 3-8 35 22 140 293 50-15-32 143 207 31-16-14 +4 3.8 17.3
Arizona 12 7-5 7-5 37 21 164 237 58-31-22 132 170 29-16-11 +6 3.3 14.6

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

TROY (8-4) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (6-6)

Sunday, December 21 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Troy 30 - Southern Miss 21--We're not hard-pressed to find reasons to support underdog Southern Miss in this matchup. After wobbling through a 5-game losing streak, the Eagles peaked down the stretch, winning & covering their final 4 reg.-season tilts to get back to .500 for rookie head coach Larry Fedora. The rebuilt USM defense finally jelled, permitting just 35 total points over those last 4 games. And the creative Fedora (former o.c. at Oklahoma State) has a multi-dimensional QB in RS frosh Austin Davis (12 TDP, only 2 ints. in last 6 games; 331 YR during last 5), as well as top-notch weapons such as star jr. RB Damion Fletcher, all-conf. sr. TE Shawn Nelson, and terrific true frosh WR DeAndre Brown (12 TDC), a 6-6 mega blue-chipper who was recruited by the likes of Florida & LSU.Still, prefer to lay fair price with a money-making Troy side that's brought home the bacon in 20 of its last 28 games on the line! Trojans not lacking for confidence after TY's highly-competitive losses at Ohio State and LSU, with the latter needing 30 fourth-quarter points to stave off the scrappy visitor's upset bid. Troy's potent spread attack is in the capable hands of quick-trigger Richmond transfer QB Levi Brown (63% for 1711 yards & 14 TDs in last 7 games), and the tough-minded Trojan defense has held 15 of its last 20 foes to 28 points or fewer.

(DNP...SR: Southern Miss 6-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Troy 11 7-4 7-3 30 22 163 230 42-18-21 146 192 31-15-16 +3 2.1 16.3
Southern Miss 12 6-6 7-5 31 24 196 238 49-28-21 145 224 36-12-24 +13 1.3 18.9

POINSETTIA BOWL

TCU (10-2) vs. BOISE STATE (12-0)

Tuesday, December 23 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)

*Boise State 22 - Tcu 19--In truth, both of these entries might be BCS-worthy, as many gridiron aficionados believe TCU (and not Utah) was the best Mountain West squad in '08, while many WAC sources suggest Boise might be even better than its last unbeaten squad from '06, one that made it to the BCS and upset Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl classic.

While most pundits are quick to note (and correctly so) that the Broncos have not faced a defense as voracious as TCU's 2nd-ranked (only 215 ypg!) platoon, Boise's high-pressure stop unit is formidable in its own right, allowing only 12.3 ppg (ranks 3rd nationally). With the Broncos' hard-hitting safeties Jeron Johnson, Ellis Powers, and George Iloka consistently stuffing the run and setting a physical tone, we're not sure the Frogs' bread-and-butter ground game will prove the necessary diversion to QB Andy Dalton's preferred play-action tactics. And if any OL can slow TCU's sackmeister DE Jerry Hughes, it's a Boise forward wall that allowed QB Kellen Moore to be sacked only 11 times all year. With plenty of playmakers on offense, and hellbent to erase the memory of last year's sleepwalking Hawaii Bowl loss vs. East Carolina (HC Petersen vowed to never go as easy on his troops in bowl preparation again), the Broncos are capable of solving the Frogs' defensive riddle and finishing unbeaten once again.

(DNP...SR: Boise State 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Tcu 11 9-2 8-3 32 11 206 201 45-30-13 53 169 16-8-7 +9 7.0 14.5
Boise State 11 11-0 7-3 39 13 157 289 55-23-27 104 198 18-6-8 +8 12.2 17.7

HAWAII BOWL

NOTRE DAME (6-6) vs. HAWAII (7-6)

Wednesday, December 24 Day at Honolulu, HI (FieldTurf)

HAWAII 27 - Notre Dame 19--It's not a stretch to say that we found out more about these respective entries during their losing efforts this season. Whereas Notre Dame surrendered meekly vs. almost every quality foe on its slate, and embarrassed itself when allowing lowly Syracuse to beat it at South Bend in November, Hawaii was impressive in keeping potent Boise State within earshot (on the blue carpet, no less) in October, and had BCS-bound Cincinnati on the ropes in the recent regular-season finale at Aloha Stadium. And unlike the Irish, the Warriors improved as '08 progressed, especially after 1st-year HC Greg McMackin's QB roulette finally landed on juco Greg Alexander, who was efficient (12 TDP/4 picks) if not spectacular piloting the Red Gun after assuming the starting role at midseason.

All of that is more than we can say about Notre Dame and HC Charlie Weis, whose job status proved an extra distraction after the regular season concluded. And even though Weis has been granted a stay of execution, that doesn't portend a sudden transformation of the sluggish Irish attack, which too often abandoned the run, subjecting QB Jimmy Clausen to intense pressure, and was its own worst enemy with 26 TOs. With plenty of established playmakers (including LBs Elimimian & Leonard, & DE Veikune), Hawaii's aggressive "D" (which forced 30 TOs) could wreak havoc. The Warriors aren't as potent as recent editions, but with the home-field edge, they might not have to be to beat the uninspiring Irish.

(DNP...SR: Notre Dame 2-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Notre Dame 12 6-6 6-6 23 22 113 231 33-10-20 143 185 32-18-12 -5 -.5 12.6
HAWAII 12 6-6 7-5 24 28 97 241 37-16-18 162 201 40-15-21 -6 -1.1 16.8

MOTOR CITY BOWL

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6) vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4)

Friday, December 26 Night at Detroit, MI (Dome; FieldTurf)

*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 37 - Florida Atlantic 35--Central Michigan is visiting the Motor City Bowl for the third straight season, and this will be the Chippewas' 5th game at Ford Field in just over 25 months (they covered in 2 MAC championships and 2 bowl games). Losses in the last 2 games this season (to Ball St. & E. Mich.) cost the Chips a third straight trip to the MAC title game. While we definitely respect CMU attack, led by QB Dan LeFevour (11th in the nation in total offense), the Chippewas have flaws on defense. CMU yielded 38 ppg in its last 4, and the Chip stop unit ranks 118th against the pass and 104th overall. Part of the reason the pass defense gives up so many yards is the lack of a solid pass rush; CMU ranks 98th in sacks this season.

Howard Schnellenberger's Florida Atlantic side had bowl success last season, ripping Memphis 44-27 in the New Orleans Bowl. This season's edition had a choppy start, but QB Rusty Smith had a turnaround at midseason that propelled the Owls to a 5-1 second half. Smith threw 9 ints. and just 5 TD passes in FAU's 1-5 start, but the lights went on and he tossed 18 TDPs and just 5 ints. in the second half of the season (5-1 SU). The Owls protect Smith well, ranking 8th in sacks allowed, thanks to a veteran OL and a fairly solid ground game led by Charles Pierre (103 ypg rushing in last 6 games). Defensively, FAU, while not statistically impressive, possesses four first-team all-Sun Belt players.

Smith should trade scores with LeFevour and keep it close all night. Looks like a high-scoring affair, with two high-quality QBs against permissive defenses.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Florida Atlantic 12 6-6 6-5 25 29 141 251 39-15-23 184 219 46-23-21 -9 -1.8 18.9
C. MICHIGAN 11 7-4 5-4 30 32 131 300 42-18-23 144 293 47-23-22 +3 -.8 15.1

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

WEST VIRGINIA (8-4) vs. NORTH CAROLINA (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Day at Charlotte, NC (Grass Field)

NORTH CAROLINA 23 - West Virginia 17--History might reveal 2008 to be a watershed year for both of these programs. Under first-year HC Bill Stewart, the Mountaineers scratched out 8 wins during the regular season, but looked somewhat mediocre when compared with the elite squads former mentor Rich Rodriguez fielded in his last few campaigns. On the other hand, Carolina is clearly a team on the rise in just its second season under respected veteran mentor Butch Davis. True, the Tar Heels enter this game with the same 8-4 record as West Virginia, but it's the first time since 2001 that UNC has managed more than 6 victories.

While the Mountaineers own the most dynamic weapon on the field in record-setting star sr. QB Pat White, their offense (just 24 ppg) hasn't been nearly as productive as the dazzling WV attacks of recent seasons. And the Heels have a few things going for them besides a coaching edge. How about a staunchly partisan crowd in Charlotte cheering on their speedy, ball-hawking defense (27 takeaways)? And don't forget that Carolina has two battle-tested QBs, productive soph RB Shaun Draughn (801 YR), plus the game's top WR in jr. Hakeem Nicks (60 catches for 1005 yards & 9 TDs). (DNP...SR: N. Car. 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
West Virginia 11 7-4 4-7 22 15 223 129 28-14-14 135 184 20-11-8 +10 4.5 11.8
NO. CAROLINA 11 7-4 6-5 27 20 122 190 36-15-16 140 215 25-12-11 +6 6.4 10.7

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

WISCONSIN (7-5) vs. FLORIDA STATE (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Night at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)

*FLORIDA STATE 24 - Wisconsin 23--Two bowl-tested teams meet for the first time. Wisconsin is going to a school-record 7th straight bowl, while Florida State is riding the longest bowl appearance streak in the country (29).

Bobby Bowden's Seminoles arrive in Orlando with the 13th-ranked defense in the nation. Meanwhile, FSU soph QB Christian Ponder hasn't impressed with his accuracy, throwing 15 interceptions and just 7 TDs in his career facing TGS-rated teams. RBs Antone Smith (753 YR, 15 TDs) and Jermaine Thomas (478 YR) proved an effective 1-2 combination.

After a shaky first game, Wisconsin QB Dustin Sherer produced 186 ypg passing in the Badgers' last 6 games, helping balance the 14th-ranked rushing attack. The run game is led by jr. P.J. Hill (3802 career rushing yards, 44 TDs), RS frosh John Clay (845 YR, 9 rush TDs '08) and a typically huge Wisconsin OL.

FSU has had some success in bowl games recently, sporting a 3-0-1 spread mark the last 4 years, but Wisconsin is 3-1 in the same span, including a pair of wins here in Orlando (Capital One Bowls). The Badger fans love getting out of Wisconsin at this time of year, and generally flock to warm-weather bowl locations like migrating birds.

This looks like a ground-oriented, slug-it-out type of game, with the value in the "under" and in taking the points.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Wisconsin 11 6-5 5-6 28 24 215 188 36-27-9 120 198 32-18-12 -4 -1.3 10.1
FLORIDA ST. 10 6-4 5-5 28 24 168 166 29-18-8 144 173 27-12-13 -4 1.0 6.5

EMERALD BOWL

MIAMI-FLORIDA (7-5) vs. CALIFORNIA (8-4)

Saturday, December 27 Night at San Francisco, CA (Grass Field)

*CALIFORNIA 34 - Miami-Florida 21--In 2007, head coach Randy Shannon's rookie year, the Hurricanes suffered through their first losing season since 1997 (and just the second sub-.500 campaign in nearly three decades for the storied Miami program!). So credit the enthusiastic Shannon, a former Cane LB, for quickly getting his squad back into bowl action, even if it's only this relatively minor postseason bid. Miami is now oozing young talent on both sides of the ball and seems destined for bigger & better things in the near future.

However, the still-learning 2008 Hurricanes might have drawn more than they can handle in well-coached, veteran Cal bunch that covered 5 of its final 6 reg.-season games. Brainy Bear mentor Jeff Tedford will have some surprises in store for the frequently over-pursuing Miami defenders, and mercurial Cal RBs Jahvid Best & Shane Vereen (combined for 2533 yards from scrimmage & 19 TDs) can "house the rock" from anywhere on the field with just a sliver of daylight. Sure, maligned Bear QBs soph Kevin Riley & sr. Nate Longshore aren't the most consistent duo, but they're certainly no more erratic than the Hurricanes' RS frosh Robert Marve (9 TDP vs. 13 ints.) & true frosh Jacory Harris. And the nearby Bay Area venue can only help Cal's cause. (DNP...SR: Miami-Fla 2-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Miami-Florida 11 6-5 4-7 26 26 122 197 33-12-19 153 178 35-19-13 -9 .4 8.2
CALIFORNIA 12 8-4 9-3 33 20 184 196 51-20-24 123 193 31-16-10 12 4.3 11.1

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)

Sunday, December 28 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)

*LOUISIANA TECH 26 - Northern Illinois 21--Jerry Kill's first year at NIU has to be considered a success, as the Huskies bounced back from a 2-10 record to return to a bowl for the 3rd time in 5 years. NIU's sporadic offense was a problem, as the Huskies were shut out by Navy in the season finale, and scored just 14 ppg in October & November games against Tennessee, Miami-Ohio, Bowling Green and Ball State. It's doubtful NIU QB Chandler Harnish will suddenly "flip the switch" and successfully attack Louisiana Tech's weak pass defense after Harnish threw for just 137 ypg in the Huskies' last 7 games upon his return from injury. The NIU defense looks good on paper, ranking 16th in scoring defense, but further examination reveals Huskies did well facing bad offensive teams and "minor league" opposition, but failed to slow good offensive teams.

La Tech's jr. RB Daniel Porter came on in the second half of the season, churning for 115 ypg (6.4 ypc) in the last 7 games. That production boosted the Bulldogs to a 4-1 SU mark down the stretch and their first bowl bid since 2001. Louisiana Tech ranks 116th against the pass, but not sure NIU has the receivers or QB to exploit that weakness. Improving Bulldog soph QB Ross ******* has thrown just 2 ints. in his last 144 pass attempts, and is coming off a 258-yard, 2-TD performance against Nevada.

Shreveport isn't a dream destination for NIU fans, as ticket sales were extremely slow despite personal pleas from Kill. It's doubtful the Huskies will sell their allotment of 12,000 tickets. Conversely, a return to the bowl picture and the convenient location sparked sharp interest on the Louisiana Tech side, with reportedly brisk sales starting as soon as the game was announced.

(DNP...SR: Louisiana Tech 5-1)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Northern Ill. 11 5-6 6-5 23 19 163 170 30-19-10 150 166 26-12-13 +3 2.0 18.1
LA. TECH 11 6-5 5-6 24 25 190 153 33-19-8 104 271 36-12-23 +8 .7 16.5

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-6) vs. RUTGERS (7-5)

Monday, December 29 Day at Birmingham, AL (FieldTurf)

North Carolina State 31 - Rutgers 30--No team has been a better bankroll buddy over last couple months than these two. Rutgers is 8-0 against the line in its last 8 games, while N.C. State has covered 7 straight (and 9 of its previous 10)!

The Scarlet Knights' impressive stretch drive notwithstanding, very eager to grab substantial points with resilient young Wolfpack squad that needed to win its final 4 reg.-season games just to get to .500 and become bowl eligible. Sure, locked-in Rutgers sr. QB Mike Teel (20 TDP in last 5 outings!) is bound to fire a few strikes to NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt. But there's every reason to believe Pack's precocious RS frosh triggerman Russell Wilson (16 TDP & 0 ints. his last 8 games!) will be able to trade scores, especially with injured sr. DE Jamaal Westerman (team-high 6 sacks) out of commission for the Knights. Plus, the stiffening State stop unit did hold each of its last 6 foes to 28 points or fewer.

Wolfpack HC Tom O'Brien knows Rutgers well from his time in Big East at Boston College, where he once won (and covered) six straight bowl appearances! And O'Brien has bagged outright victories in 8 of his last 12 as a dog at State. Upset alert.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
No. Carolina St. 11 5-6 9-2 23 26 131 196 30-11-16 147 248 33-16-16 +9 .5 6.4
Rutgers 11 6-5 8-3 28 20 132 272 41-16-23 149 195 25-14-9 -3 2.7 12.0

ALAMO BOWL

NORTHWESTERN (9-3) vs. MISSOURI (9-4)

Monday, December 29 Night at San Antonio, TX (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Missouri 38 - Northwestern 20--Despite the double-digit pointspread, there are an inordinate number of reasons to support Missouri. Prolific, Texas-native, sr. QB Chase Daniel (74%, 37 TDs, 15 ints.). Dynamic WR/KR Jeremy Maclin (95 recs., 12 TDC; 250 YR & 2 TDR; 1 TD on a KOR). Mackey Award-winning TE Chase Coffman (83 recs. & 10 TDs). Tough-to-tackle WR Tommy Saunders (66 recs., 7 TDs). Underrated RB Derrick Washington (992 YR & 17 TDs). And reliable PK Jeff Wolfert (17 of 23). MU (-3½) routed Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Arkansas 38-7 in LY's Cotton Bowl. In fact, the Tigers have scored exactly 38 points in their bowl games each of the L3Ys!

Yes, the Mizzou defense didn't fully meet coaches' expectations TY, finishing 99th in the nation in total yards. But the Tigers faced a plethora big-time passers in the Big XII. Meanwhile, this was far from a vintage year in the Big Ten, helping Northwestern's quality defense to shine with 19.3 ppg allowed, finish 13th with 33 sacks, and permit only 33.9% conversions on third down. However, QB Daniel and Mizzou appear a tough matchup, allowing only 15 sacks in 13 games and converting 54.4%. Wildcat QB C.J. Bacher is a heady senior, but he was frequently off target TY (59.7%, 14 TDs, 14 ints.), with NW -5 in turnovers.

Lastly, 29 Tigers are from Texas, where HC Pinkel recruits heavily. And the perfect conditions indoors only figure to accentuate Mizzou's speed and matchup edges on offense. (DNP...SR: Even 4-4)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Northwestern 11 8-3 6-5 24 20 148 213 31-12-17 132 219 27-14-11 -5 1.9 13.4
Missouri 12 8-4 5-7 42 30 147 341 66-25-36 133 288 47-19-26 -4 2.7 7.1

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

COLLEGE BOWLS

Saturday, December 20th
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy over Wake Forest by 3
Oh, great… this is just what we DON’T need. Another meaningless bowl
matchup – there are two new bowls this year, by the way – instead of a
legitimate college football playoff. You’d think as handicappers we’d
welcome a pair of additional wagering opportunities during the CFB postseason
but the truth is we prefer quality to quantity. Take a good look at the
participants in the seven bowl games we’re analyzing this week and toss in
the after-Christmas Motor City Bowl spectacular so you come up with a list
of 16 teams. Now check out who we’d be watching in the opening round
of a 16-team playoff, seeded according to the fi nal BCS rankings: (9) Boise
St vs (8) Penn State, (10) Ohio St vs (7) Texas Tech, (11) TCU vs (6) Utah
in a rematch, (12) Cincinnati vs (5) USC, (13) Oklahoma St vs (4) Alabama,
(14) Georgia Tech vs (3) Texas, (15) Georgia vs (2) Florida in a rematch, and
fi nally (16) BYU vs (1) Oklahoma. Instead we get a system where Texas – who
beat Oklahoma straight up on a neutral fi eld – is denied a chance to play
for the national crown along with the nation’s only two unbeaten squads,
Utah and Boise State. And in order to supply fodder for this year’s glut of 34
bowl games, no less than EIGHT teams will take the fi eld with a 6-6 record!
Gee, remember the good old days when teams got invited to a bowl as a
reward for a winning season? Yet somehow the BCS prevails and we shake
our heads helplessly at this same time every year, shackled by a system so
corrupt that Congress is actually envious. But enough BCS bashing; let’s turn
our attention to this pulse-pounder scheduled to take place in our nation’s
capital. When these two teams met on September 27th at Winston-Salem,
the game marked a turning point of sorts for both. Following Navy’s 24-17
win (its fi rst over a ranked foe in 23 years) as a 16-point road dog, the Middies
fi nished the season with a strong 5-2 SU run while the Deacs struggled to a
lackluster 4-4 effort. Yes, Wake Forest has reached a 3rd consecutive bowl
game for the fi rst time in school history but today’s venue is a huge step
down from its 2006 Orange Bowl appearance. Throw the obvious revenge
motive into the mix with a superb 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS mark versus Military
teams (including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS if not at home) and Jim Grobe’s team
looks promising as a short favorite – until we factor in a few more bits of
information. Despite returning just four starters on offense and breaking in
a new head coach in Ken Niumatalolo (just one of 10 fi rst-year coaches to
earn a bowl berth in ’08), Navy led the nation in rushing, including 292 yards
in its earlier ambush of Wake. Ironically, Middie QB Kaipo-long-name left
the game at Winston-Salem with an injury but was back recently to guide his
crew to a 34-0 destruction of Army – and should be rarin’ to go today. In fact,
this will mark Navy’s 3rd game in 19 days so don’t expect to see much rust on
the Mids’ precision option offense. And even though the folks at Annapolis
initially resisted a rematch with Wake, the anchors aweigh crowd bought
up 30,000 of the 45,000 available seats at RFK Stadium. That crowd support
looks especially good since pre-New Year’s Day bowl dogs that outrush their
opponents are a solid 122-55-1 ATS since 1980, numbers that fi t perfectly
with Wake coach Grobe’s weak 6-12 ATS log as non-ACC chalk (1-6 versus a
foe off a win). Navy WILL win the rushing battle today and with Deacon QB
Riley Skinner unable to perform with any consistency all season, look for WF
to go MIA in DC today.

NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno St over Colorado St by 1
Jeez, the second bowl game on this year’s schedule and we’re already looking
at one of those 6-6 teams we just mentioned in Colorado State. Do the Rams
really deserve to be playing today? Probably not but they’re a helluva a lot
more excited about being here than the downtrodden Bulldogs. First-year
head coach Steve Fairchild rescued a CSU program that was in a state of
slow decay under legendary Sonny Lubick (Rams were just 7-17 SU the fi nal
two years of the Lubick era) and a victory today over Fresno State would
give the folks in Fort Collins their fi rst winning season since 2003. Fairchild’s
boys didn’t just back their way into this bowl appearance – they had to win
their fi nal two games of the season to become bowl eligible. The Rams also
came within few plays of shocking a pair of powerful opponents earlier in
the year, losing by just 6 points to TCU and by 3 points to BYU. But while
Colorado State’s fans are ecstatic about heading to Albuquerque (school has
sold almost its complete allotment of tickets), Fresno State and its backers
are less than thrilled by the prospect. And why not? Armed with 15 returning
starters led by SR QB Tom Brandstater, the Bulldogs were expected to make
some major noise in ’08 and compete for a BCS bowl slot. But those dreams
where shattered by a slew of injuries to key personnel and FSU fi nished the
season on a 2-3 SU slide, capped off with a demoralizing 61-10 destruction at
the hands of Boise State. Both teams own rotten rush defenses, each allowing
more than 5.0 YPR, and the putrid Bulldog stop unit forced just 12 turnovers
all year. The ATS archives suggests we fade Fresno since Hill’s squad was just
1-7 versus the number as chalk in ’08 and WAC Bowlers are a miserable 4-11
SU and ATS against an opponent off BB SU wins this decade. In this battle of
former WAC rivals (CSU jumped to the Mountain West conference a decade
ago), we’ll pick the Rams to grab the green by the slimmest of margins.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
South Florida over Memphis by 7
Here we go again… ANOTHER 6-6 team in a bowl game. But if you take
a look at the way the season unfolded for both of today’s foes, the .500
Tigers appear to have a lot more left in the tank than USF. Much like Fresno
State, South Florida returned a ton of starters and an outstanding QB in
Matt Grothe and was expected to contend for the Big East championship
and a BCS bowl appearance. But USF turned out to be as bullish as this
autumn’s stock market, bursting out of the stall with a 5-0 SU start before
plummeting to a horrifi c 2-5 fi nish. A home loss to Pittsburgh as double-digit
favorites began the Bulls’ sharp decline and USF hasn’t scored more than 20
points since beating woeful Syracuse in mid-October. Tommy West’s Tigers
took the exact opposite route to this game, losing their fi rst 3 games of the
season (2 of the losses were to bowlers Ole Miss and Rice) before restoring
the roar with a 6-3 fi nish, including a 4-0 ‘In The Stats’ performance in the
fi nal 4 games. The striped cats get further support from our database, which
informs us that pre-New Year’s Day dogs of 7 or more points that were
favored by over 10 points in their previous game are a money-making14-2-2
ATS. From a fan standpoint, South Florida couldn’t have asked for a better
destination: Tropicana Field is little more than a stone’s throw across Tampa
Bay from the Bulls’ campus home. But with USF being outstatted in 3 of
the season’s fi nal 4 games and its players decidedly disappointed at being
relegated to such a minor bowl, we can’t bring ourselves to lay doubles with
the ‘home’ team here. Like Johnny Rivers sang, “Long distance information,
give me Memphis, Tennessee...”

LAS VEGAS BOWL
Byu over Arizona by 1
When Rodgers and Hammerstein penned the lyrics to the famous Broadway
show tune, ‘Getting to Know You’ they had no idea it would eventually
become the bowl theme song for BYU. It’s now four-straight years in bowl
games for Cougar head coach Bronco Mendenhall and four-straight years
to the Las Vegas Bowl. That’s a good thing if you’re a Mormon considering
the fact that dogs in bowl games they won the previous year are 23-12
ATS, including 15-3 ATS versus an opponent that won 8 or less games last
year. When the season started BYU had realistic visions of a 12-0 campaign.
Why not? After all, they had won 11 games in back-to-back seasons and
were returning ten starters on offense, led by heralded QB Max Hall. A 6-0
start saw those dreams shattered in a disappointing 32-7 loss at TCU. They
managed to rally back with 4 consecutive wins before falling at Utah in
their season fi nale. Today they’ll take the fi eld against an Arizona squad
that is fi nally bowling for the fi rst time in ten years. It certainly doesn’t
hurt knowing that BYU is 13-1 ATS as a dog off a loss when squaring off
against a sub .700 opponent. Enter the Wildcats, fresh off a season-ending
win over arch-rival Arizona State. That victory snapped a two-game losing
skid at the hands of the Oregonians. We’re not at all enamored with the
fact that PAC 10 bowl teams are just 1-12 ATS as favorites against foes off a
loss, while managing to win only 5 of the 13 games in SU fashion. To make
matters worse, the quality of opposition was weak, at best, for Arizona as
its opponents posted a combined win percentage of just .421 this season.
Considering the Mountain West’s surprising dominance (6-1 SU) against a
PAC 10 conference that was down this year, it would come as no surprise
to us to see the Cougars win their 11th game for the 3rd straight year here
today. As the song goes, “But nicely, you are precisely, my cup of tea.”

Sunday, December 21st
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Troy over Southern Miss by 7
If you’ve been following us all year, you know we like teams who win the
“stat battles”. And if we follow our powerful database, as we always do,
then we’re clearly behind the men of Troy in this matchup. The Trojans are
20-2 ‘In the Stats’ over their last 22 games, including 11-1 this season, while
the Golden Eagles have won the stat war just 5 of their previous 34 tries
versus Bowlers over the last 6 years! In addition, Conference USA Bowlers
as a whole haven’t fared well when tackling an opponent off a SU win,
registering an anemic 10-22 ATS mark. Southern Miss, in particular, has
dropped the ball in post-season play, recording a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS mark
in their last 13 bowl efforts. With Sun Belt Bowl teams 3-0 SU and ATS off
BB SUATS wins, this year’s New Orleans Bowl has the makings of a ‘Big Easy’
Troy victory. We know we’ll get the stat win, but it’s the scoreboard that
brings home the bacon. We’ll get that, too. Play it and lay it as Larry Fedora,
another 1st year coach, goes down in bowl fl ames today.

Tuesday, December 23rd
POINSETTIA BOWL
Tcu over Boise St by 6
Undoubtedly the best matchup of the non-major Bowl games, why are these
two teams meeting on December 23rd while Buffalo-UConn and Tulsa-Ball
State are the lead-ins to the BCS Championship game? Is Bud Selig behind
this one? All kidding aside, this looks to be a classic confrontation between
offense versus defense. We’ve all witnessed the Boise State offense in that
incredible Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but let’s not forget about the
TCU defense. The Horned Frogs, along with Texas, held Oklahoma to their
lowest point total of the season (35) and their 2nd lowest yardage mark
(436), just ONE more yard than the Longhorns allowed. In fact, the Horned
ones have held 9 opponents to season low yardage this year, the best in the
FBS. In terms of pedigree, both squads arrive with suitable credentials. The
Broncos are 14-3 SU versus Bowlers over the last three years while TCU is 7-2
SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Bowl appearances since 1998. They tell us good pitching
stops good hitting and defense wins championships. Who are we to argue?
Especially when our wise database tells us that undefeated Bowl dogs of less
than 10 points off an ATS win of more than 10 points are just 1-5 SU and ATS.
Gary Patterson’s 7-1 ATS mark with rest against non conference opponents
seals it. ‘D’ before ‘O’, that’s how we’ll go.

Wednesday, December 24th
HAWAII BOWL
Hawaii over Notre Dame by 1
When Santa brings us a nice new plasma television this year and we open
it early on Christmas Eve, it’s doubtful that the fi rst channel we turn on will
be ESPN for this 8:00 snoozer. Yes, we still prefer reruns of ‘Charlie Brown’s
Christmas’ over watching two teams with a combined 13-12 SU record. And
it doesn’t look like we’ll be opening the wallet for this one, either. While
Hawaii boasts a strong 21-3 SU mark in its last 24 home games – including
the last 3 as a home bowler averaging over 51 PPG – this year’s version minus
Colt Brennan is just 1-6 ‘In The Stats’. Although the Irish are one of our 2008
“Mission Teams” to receive a bowl invitation, their 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS mark
in bowl games since 1994 doesn’t exude much confi dence. The visitors have
outstatted 8 of their last 9 opponents but thanks to their propensity for
turnovers on the road this season (22), their statistical dominance hasn’t
translated into “W’s”. While Weis has been able to bully .500 or less foes to
the tune of 16-4 SU, he hasn’t fared well against winning opposition, posting
just a 12-17 SU and ATS mark in those contests. Hawaii’s Greg McMakin has
done a credible job in replacing June Jones but our trusty database informs
us that coaches in their fi rst year with a new team are just 8-21-1 ATS in Bowl
games off a SU loss or win of less than 3 points. Tough call. We’ll leave this
one to you but we’ll be watching Snoopy as he prepares for his annual battle
with the Red Baron.

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON any NFL home dog in its Last Home Game of the season in Game Fifteen off an ATS division win.

Play On:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
& SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 12-1-1 (92%)

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL West Coast teams are 2-17 SU in
Eastern Time zones this season (Play against
San Diego and San Francisco this week).
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

PLAYBOOK 5* GAME OF THE YEAR

5* BEST BET
NY GIANTS over Carolina by 14
It’s absolutely amazing how the frontrunners in this league will turn
their backs on you in a heartbeat. Just two weeks ago EVERYONE
had the Giants penciled into Tampa on February 1st for a return
engagement to the Super Bowl. Now, off consecutive defeats to
teams with their backs to the wall (Philadelphia and Dallas), it seems
everyone’s interest has shifted to… the Panthers, this week’s opponent.
These games are statement makers, my friend, and nobody is better
at issuing a declaration than the defending Super Bowl champs. That’s
confi rmed by the champs’ 4-0 SU and ATS mark in games off back-toback
SU and ATS losses as favorites of less than 5 points when facing a
.720 or greater opponent. Now, returning home off a previous home
loss, reigning SB champions are 10-0 SU in the last 10 regular season
home games in this role. Given the environment (warm weather
Panthers playing in cold weather December locale) and Carolina’s 1-
4 ‘In The Stats’ mark in its last fi ve road games, we’re on New York
like white on (r)ice today. Note: the Giants are this year’s PLAYBOOK
Newsletter 5* Game of the Year selection

4* BEST BET
TAMPA BAY over San Diego by 13
As reported earlier on these pages, the NFC South has feasted at home
this season going 25-2 SU and 19-7-1 ATS. When playing off a loss they
are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS, including 7-0 SU and ATS when hosting an
opponent off a win. Pretty powerful numbers, to say the least. Enter
the Chargers, a team that shot itself in the foot early on in the season
and as a result is barely clinging to hopes of landing a playoff berth.
Some might say they are closing like a freight train. Riding a two-game
win steak against the likes of Oakland and Kansas City we look at it
more like a team about to be tossed from the train without a ticket. The
Bucs’ 10-1 ATS mark in the fi rst of back-to-back home games against an
opponent off back-to-back wins clinches it. Bolts’ playoff hopes suffer a
jolt as another West Coaster forgets to set the alarm clock.

3* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over Miami by 6
Some way, somehow, the Fish continue to swim upstream just ahead
of the sharks as they win games on the fi eld but not by enough to
satisfy their loyal backers. Playing to the level of competition, Miami
is 5-2 SU and ATS against .500 or greater teams under Tony Sparano
but 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. Hence,
they remain pointspread virgins when laying points, going 0-5 ATS.
The Chiefs battled the Chargers tooth-n-nail here last week before
falling late. As a result, they improved to 27-7 ATS (24-10 SU) as home
dogs against opponents off a win. Our AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2)
and Miami’s 1-10 ATS mark as road chalk in December against losing
opposition clinches it. It ain’t broke and we’re not about to fi x it. You
know what to do.

TOTALS:

3* Chiefs UNDER
4*Rams OVER
5*Redskins UNDER

Thursday, December 18th

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE by 3
If momentum is a key to a team’s playoff hopes then the Colts are playing
like locksmiths. Seven wins in a row and counting, Indy invades Jacksonville
with the added incentive of revenge from a 23-21 home loss in Week Two
earlier this season. The jamb in their plans is a nasty late season angle that
fi nds dogs in Last Home Games in money-making moods when playing off SU
underdog wins as these teams are 34-15-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS against
an opponent off back-to-back wins. Despite the Ponies’ 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS
log on Thursdays, we’ll stand up and Yale with the Jags.

Saturday, December 20th

DALLAS over Baltimore by 4
The fallout of two teams off huge division games last week fi nds the
Cowboys hosting the Ravens in a rare Saturday night affair. Dallas came up
big in their victory against New York but now as a result must overcome
two tough hurdles. One is the Pokes’ dismal 3-14-1 ATS mark in games after
facing the Giants when taking on .333 or greater non-division opponents.
The other is the fact they are 0-8 ATS as hosts against foes off a double-digit
loss in which they were favored. What makes backing the Black Birds diffi cult
is the ‘after-Tomlin’ factor as teams are just 7-22 ATS after taking on Mike’s
Steelers, including 4-16 ATS after a loss. Tough call, y’all.

Sunday, December 21st

TENNESSEE over Pittsburgh by 3
A possible playoff preview with home fi eld advantage throughout the
post-season is on the line here today. The Steelers take to the road off last
week’s dramatic last-minute win at Baltimore knowing they are 0-5 ATS off
an upset win when taking on an opponent off an upset loss. And to further
complicate matters, our database tells us that road favorites off a SU dog win
have covered the number only 5 times in 18 tries when going up against a
foe off a SU favorite loss. Sure, the loss of Pro Bowl DL Albert Haynesworth
for the rest of the regular season is devastating but the Titans are 5-1 ATS in
games off one loss-exact and are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a host in
this series. Advantage: Tennessee.

NEW ENGLAND over Arizona by 10
Brrr. It can get awfully cold in the Northeast this time of year… especially for
climate-controlled teams from the desert. And to set the record straight, there
is no need to hire a detective to fi nd the culprit for Arizona’s recent woes. Their
lethargic play is simply a case of having clinched a playoff spot a month ago
while residing in the weakest division in the league. As a result, the Cardinals
are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games, with the lone win coming against
the lowly Rams. New England fi nds itself in a three-way tie atop the AFC East
Division holding tie-breakers against the Jets and Dolphins should they not
trip up in the next two weeks. Bill Belichick’s 14 straight regular season win
skein versus NFC teams doesn’t fi gure to be in peril today.

CLEVELAND over Cincinnati by 3
The battle of Ohio has seldom brought together two teams in such pathetic
condition as it does this Sunday. Both teams are forced to rely on backup
QB’s and neither fi gures to burn out any light bulbs on the scoreboard in this
snoozer. Cleveland checks in off Monday night’s 20-point loss having scored
ten or less points in four straight games. They’ve also failed to gain 200 yards
in each of their last three contests. Cincinnati picked up a rare win last week
against the slumping Redskins and will look to avenge a 20-12 home loss
earlier this season against the Brownies. If this game were on a Monopoly
board it would read ‘just pass go’. No thanks.

Philadelphia over WASHINGTON by 6
Two division foes heading in opposite directions, with the incentive belonging
to the surging Eagles from a 23-17 home loss as 6.5-point favorites the fi rst
week in October (Philly blew a 14-0 lead in that game). While we’d like to send
out a wakeup call for Washington, the fact of the matter is Andy Reid shines
on the division road with revenge, going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS with 8 winsand-
covers in a row. Couple that with the Skins’ 0-7 ATS mark as home dogs
with a .500 or greater record and just like that the Eagles fi gure to continue
their run to the playoffs. To do so, they need to win their fi nal two games and
hope either Atlanta or Tampa Bay loses a game. We like their chances.

ST. LOUIS over San Francisco by 1
We’ll be the fi rst to admit the Niners have made nice strides under ‘interim’
head coach Mike Singletary. He certainly deserves to lose the ‘interim’ label
and become the BMOC. Today, however, he fi gures to fall prey to the schedule
maker, though, as his troops take to the road for the 4th time in 5 weeks. His
team certainly brings a bevy of terrifi c trends into this fray, such as 13-0 ATS
as favorites of less than 14 points in this series and St. Louis’ 0-11 ATS mark as
division home dogs off a division game. The problem we have is the Rams will
suit up in ‘Ugly Pig’ clothing and that’s an outfi t we dare not fade. Instead,
we’ll defer to the Rams’ 8-2 SU and ATS record in Last Home Games. This
week’s INCREDIBLE STAT says to play against the Niners and so do we.

MINNESOTA over Atlanta by 4
A key clash for positioning in the NFC playoff race fi nds the upstart Falcons
invading the Metrodome to battle the suddenly resurgent Vikings. If Minny
holds a major edge in this matchup it’s a strength-of-schedule advantage
over the Falcons as the Vikes’ opponents own a combined 82-72 slate this
season as opposed to Atlanta’s foes going just 67-82. We also can’t look past
Minny’s mighty 7-0 ATS mark as non-division home favorites of less than 4
points when they own a .500 or better record. No surprise to see the Dirty
Birds fall to 1-11 ATS as road dogs off a win in December. Thor!

New Orleans over DETROIT by 3
It what appears to be Last Chance Gulch for the Lions to win a game this
season we will give them a long, hard look. Rod Marinelli’s troops have
played with more intensity the past two weeks than at anytime this season
(wonder why?). The Lions have cashed each of the last three tickets in this
series and will come with everything they’ve got. Unfortunately, so too will
the Saints, whose fl ickering playoff hopes are still alive. Take it or leave it.

SEATTLE over NY Jets by 1
Another Big Apple team that fi nds itself reeling when it should be rocking,
the Jets look to win their fi rst game on the West Coast this campaign (0-3 SU)
when they take on the Seahawks at Qwest Field. Noting Seattle’s sparkling
14-2 ATS log as dogs of 6 or more points when seeking revenge, it was no
surprise to see the fi rst move on this game make its way to the Hawks. With
Brett’s boys locked in the middle of a live division sandwich (off Bills win last
week with the Dolphins up next), it will take a perfect game for them to get
past this impost today. Considering our AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2) is
working against them, look for Seattle to break up the no-hitter today.

Houston over OAKLAND by 3
Sometimes certain teams are cast into roles in which they simply cannot
handle. Such is the case in this game. Houston, despite all of its recent success,
has been installed as road chalk today and that’s a no-no. The Texans have
dressed up in this role ONE TIME in their history and lost the game outright
last year at Atlanta. A 0-8 ATS mark on the road in games off a SU home dog
win does not bode well, either. Granted, the Raiders are a team in disarray
but the bottom line is this line is a joke.

DENVER over Buffalo by 3
The Broncos can suddenly feel the Chargers breathing down their necks and
there is little they can do about it. Not with a 374-yard defense that is allowing
26 PPG. They will need to pull out this win in order to avoid a possible seasonending
showdown with San Diego for the AFC West title. Enter the Bills, a
team going backwards (1-7 in its last eight games) in its own right. We look
to Dick Jauron’s 11-2 ATS career mark as a non-division dog off back-to-back
losses for support. A take is in order.

CHICAGO over Green Bay by 7
Another Monday night division tilt fi nds one team streaking to the playoff
wire against another that’s pulled a hamstring. The Bears fi gure to benefi t
from last week’s home overtime win against the Saints as home teams off a
Thursday home win have responded with aplomb, going 14-6-1 ATS. Green
Bay’s 1-4 ATS mark on the Monday night road is a major concern for Packer
backers, too. Look for Chicago to avenge its worse loss in this series since
1994 as the Cheeseheads’ fondue fi nish does them in again.

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

PRO STAT PLAY: TAMPA BAY

Angle Plays: (3) HOUSTON
(3) SEATTLE
(3) SAN FRANCISCO

SYSTEM SELECTION:

SYSTEM PLAY THIS SEASON 10-6 63%!!!!

Play on a non-div home dog of 3 or more that won SU by 3 or less vs a foe that was at home last week.
1991-2008 24-4-1 86%
PLAY: SEATTLE

Over/Unders, Angles, System,

3* Atlanta U46
3* Texans 044
3* Steelers U34
2* 49's 044
2* Eagles U41

KEY SELECTIONS

4* TAMPA BAY over San Diego - San Diego is off a surprising come from behind win vs a weak KC
team as they overcame a 21-10 4Q deficit & scored the winning TD with:36 left. Rivers (346, 71%,
2-1) threw for 300+ for the 1st time in 5 games but however they were still unable to get Tomlinson
(39, 2.6) going. That win gives them hope to finish the season as they can still catch DEN or at the
least finish with a .500 record. TB meanwhile has dropped B2B division games & LW had to go with
QB Griese (269, 70%, 1-1) as Garcia was banged up. They lost to ATL in OT as they couldn’t stop
the run allowing an 11 play (10 run) drive for the GW FG. They allowed 175 yds rushing inc 152 yds
(4.8) to Turner but at home their run defense has been a different story as they’ve allowed an avg of
60 ypg & just 13 ppg. While Garcia is more mobile at QB, Griese is a better passer & TB gets a great
matchup with WR Bryant (74 rec 14.1) vs SD’s #31 pass defense (23-11 ratio) that is backed up by
a defense that is 20th in sacks making a long road trip vs an angry & intense Gruden.
FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 23 San Diego 10

3* KANSAS CITY (+) over Miami - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & the teams have split SU &
ATS. MIA is 4-17 ATS as a non-div fav. MIA is 4-1 SU & 0-5 ATS as a fav TY with the 3 SU wins by
2, 2, 4 & 5 pts. MIA was outFD 24-11 & outgained 318-248 at home vs SF but were able to hold SF
to 3 FG’s on their 3 drives inside the MIA 20. KC is 1-7 SU but 5-3 ATS TY vs foes with a winning
record & have covered 3 straight. Pennington has 9 games of 92+ QBR TY & matches up against a
KC team that has just 9 sacks TY or one every 1.5 games. KC has allowed 100 or more yds rushing
in 10 games TY for a 184 ypg (5.3) in those. KC is off a crushing loss LW where they blew a 21-3 lead
& let SD score the go ahead TD with :36 left. KC would then miss a 50 yd FG on the final play of the
game. MIA barely beat SF LW & will be looking ahead to next weeks likely AFC East Title game. We’ll
call for KC to stay within the number as Edwards will be able to point out his former QB’s tendencies
to help out his young defense. FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 23 Miami 20

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* DETROIT (+) over New Orleans - After an opening week win vs TB very few could imagine that
the only thing NO would have to play for is not being embarrassed by losing to DET. NO used to be
a solid road team going 15-11 SU & 16-7 ATS not counting the 2005 season. They will have 3 extra
days to stew over a 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS result TY which cost them a playoff spot. The good news is
that they will play their final road game in a dome that will be only 60% full. DET has been outgained
386-236 (-3 TO’s) at home TY which is the worst yardage differential. NO has outgained foes by 50
ypg but the -7 TO’s are 31st. Brees has struggled away (4-11 ratio) but does get a favorable matchup
vs a DET def that is allowing 250 ypg passing (70%) with an 11-2 ratio & 9.51 ypa (115.5 QBR!) at
home & only had 3 healthy CB’s LW. DET is now playing under enormous pressure with historical
proportions. They did battle LW vs IND & even were tied in the 4Q before falling 33-21. They have not
quit as they have covered B2B games. There were some positives as Johnson had 110 yds rec &
Orlovsky hit for 233 yds (68%) with a 1-0 ratio despite missing 5 games with a thumb injury. NO has
to make its second of B2B road trips & while the offense has moved the ball on the road they are avg
just 22 ppg away. DET has their backs to the wall, NO is 4-10 ATS as a fav of 7 or more & the Lions
show just how motivated an NFL franchise can be when complete embarrassment is awaiting. The
Ugly Dog won again LW & is now 25-12 (68%). FORECAST: DETROIT 28 (+) New Orleans 27

2* Philadelphia over WASHINGTON - WAS defeated PHI 23-17 as a 6.5 pt AD back in Wk 5 & the
dog moved to 3-0 SU & ATS. PHI started fast with a 14-0 lead in the 1Q but WAS scored 23 unanswered
points. The Redskins defense held PHI to 19 yds offense on its next 4 drives as the Eagles
went :30 without a FD. WAS finished with a 388-254 yd edge converting 11 of 19 3rd Dns. WAS is
1-6 SU & ATS hosting a div foe. PHI is 23-9 ATS away vs a div foe. PHI is off LW’s MNF game vs
CLE while WAS was upset by a CIN team with 23 players on the IR LW. WAS lost both starting OT’s
vs BAL as QB Campbell was unable to overcome playing in windy conditions & a 17-0 deficit before
they earned one FD. Campbell only had 167 yds passing (61%) with 1 TD but on 4 drives inside the
CIN 18 came away with 1 TD, 2 FG & a fumble on the 1 after 2 very questionable play calls by HC
Zorn. PHI has outgained foes 344-274 on the road TY but bad playcalling at CHI, CIN cost them &
they were manhandled by BAL. PHI is only allowing 88 ypg rushing (3.2) on the road & have a great
matchup with their #4 pass rush (39 sacks) vs a beat up & aging WAS OL. PHI simply plays better
when their playoff hopes are on the line & get the win vs a WAS team that is 1-7-1 ATS since their
last meeting. FORECAST: Philadelphia 23 WASHINGTON 9

OTHER GAMES

Indianapolis at JACKSONVILLE - The Jags snuck past the Colts 23-21 on a last second 51 yd FG in
the 1st meeting as a 4.5 pt AD moving to 9-3-1 ATS vs IND. JAX had their highest rushing total of the
year (236 yds 4.9) as they tried to keep Manning off the field & wear down the defense. IND only ran
48 plays vs 70 for the Jags. Manning was still trying to get his rhythm down as he only passed for 216
yds (52%) with a 1-2 ratio. IND is 2-5-1 ATS as a Div AF while JAX is 9-3 ATS as a HD. Unlike the L5Y
when the Colts had the AFC South locked up they still need to play to win here as they are fighting
to ensure the #5 seed. Manning is finally in his groove with 256 ypg (70%) with a 13-3 ratio the L7W.
IND is using a short passing game (Addai & Rhodes 62 rec 6.3) to make up for its #30 rush attack
(3.1) much like PHI. This is JAX last national spot & would love to be a spoiler here & they have some
momentum after beating GB at home.

Baltimore at DALLAS - Saturday - This is the final regular season game to be played at Texas Stadium.
Both teams are off physical games with DAL having faced PIT & NYG B2B while BAL just lost to PIT
late in the 4Q after controlling most of the game. BAL is 2-5 ATS as a non-div dog. DAL is 10-6 ATS as a
non-div fav. This game features BAL #21 & #2 units (+8 TO’s) vs DAL #9 & #7 units (-8 TO’s). Non-conf
Saturday HT’s are 11-2 ATS. The Ravens #2 defense has handled itself well vs top 10 offenses going
3-1 SU & ATS TY despite being outgained 318-303. BAL’s #2 defense only allowed a 3-10 ratio holding 3
teams to 13 or less with the only exception being the Giants. DAL is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS prior to LW’s NYG
game with Romo at the helm vs a top 10 defense. DAL had a 340-292 yd edge & while Romo passed for
268 ypg (61%) he had an 11-7 ratio with the Cowboys being held to 95 yds or less in 4 of the 5 games.
This is a great matchup of a star defense vs a star offense with both teams remaining in the playoff hunt
& we’ll release the official PPH Marquee selection on Saturday.

TENNESSEE 16 Pittsburgh 13 - This is the 1st meeting since 2005 for the former AFC Central foes
with PIT having a 6-2 ATS record. This a potential preview of the AFC Championship game with TEN
having the #9 & #5 units (+0 TO’s) the L4W vs PIT #21 & #2 units (+7 TO’s) the L4W. PIT comes in having
played 3 huge games vs NE, DAL & BAL winning the L2 on TD’s set up by ints late in the 4Q. TEN is off
a 2 matchups vs DET, CLE & were upset by a HOU team that billed LW’s game as their playoff game.
TEN settled for 3 FG’s on 3 drives inside the HOU 16 & lost the TOP battle by 12:44. DT Haynesworth
(knee) left LW’s game & his status is unknown. Titans DT Vanden Bosch did hint prior to the game that
they weren’t too worried about the HOU game as they wanted to be right for this game. PIT is 4-3 SU
& 3-4 ATS vs foes with a winning record while TEN is 4-1 SU & ATS. PIT has yet to allow a team with
300 yds of offense & has only allowed 3 games of 100 yds rushing TY for 66 ypg (2.9) rushing without
those. PIT has avg’d with 14 FD per gm, 240 ypg & 17 ppg vs Top 10 defenses for a 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS
record mainly due to their defense. Usually teams that have played a tougher slate of games rate the
edge vs those vs softer slates. PIT has been worn down by DAL & BAL & now faces a TEN team that
is looking forward to the challenge & is 9-2 ATS after a SU loss. We’ll call this by 3 for now & await an
update on DT Haynesworth (0-3 SU & ATS w/o him LY) & Vanden Bosch’s health.

NEW ENGLAND 24 Arizona 17 - This is the Cardinals 5th East Coast game TY (0-4 SU 0-3-1 ATS)
& a must win to build confidence for the playoffs. Warner has avg’d 320 ypg passing (64%) but has a
9-8 ratio & 7.31 ypa on the East Coast. NE has to win out in the AFC East to be guaranteed a playoff
spot & NE is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs top 10 passing offenses. ARZ was flat after winning the NFC West
title 2 Wks ago & embarrassed at home by a more physical team (2-6 SU & 1-6-1 ATS vs physically
oriented teams defenses TY). ARZ was down 28-0 LW to MIN & finished with just 16 FD’s. NE took
are of business in OAK & gained 487 yds as Cassell threw for 4 TD’s & Morris & Jordan combined for
214 yds (8.2). The attrition however is evident in the defensive front 7 as they allowed 334 yds (OAK’s
3rd highest) & have allowed 355 ypg over the L5W. NE finds themselves in a 3 way tie for the division
which usually means Belichick devises his best game plan while the players & coaching staff feel the
pressure of having dropped their previous 2 home games. If inclement weather does appear that adds
to the NE call as they showed LW they have a diverse offense that can adjust while AZ had rushed for
just 42 ypg the L5. It’s salty playoff veterans vs playoff rookies here.

CLEVELAND 21 Cincinnati 17- The dog moved to 3-0 after CLE went into CIN on a very windy day in
the 1st meeting & won 20-12 as a 3 pt AD. Fitzpatrick was tabbed as the starter in the pregame warm-ups
due to Palmer’s elbow injury. Fitzpatrick had 156 yds (60%) with a TD but had 4 TO’s converted into 10 pts
by CLE. CLE played a very conservative game with 40 rush att’s (3.4) vs 24 pass att’s by Anderson. CIN
is off an upset win at home vs WAS due to a strong 1H where they scored 17 pts on 3 of their first 4 poss
while WAS had 1 fumble & four 3 & outs on their 1st 5 drives for 43 yds. CIN is 2-6 ATS after a SU win. CIN
does have the advantage of a backup QB in Fitzpatrick (172 ypg 60% 7-9) with more live snaps under his
belt. CIN is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road TY being outgained 353-236 (-4 TO’s). CLE hasn’t been much
better at home going 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS being outgained 390-282. CLE is healthier overall with the #17
defense the L4W, and a secondary allowing a 4-9 ratio the L4W despite only getting 1 sack. CLE is off the
MNF game vs PHI & will go all out to get Crennel a win in what his expected to be his FHG.

MINNESOTA 20 Atlanta 13 - What a difference a single year makes for an NFL franchise with a quality
coach! The Vikings beat the Falcons 24-3 in LY’s season opener as a 3 pt HF. ATL was adjusting to
having Harrington operate an offense built for Vick & working under a college HC making his NFL debut
on the road. RB Peterson had an good start with 103 yds rushing (5.4) & the MIN defense had a solid
day holding ATL to 265 yds, forcing 6 sacks & returning 2 ints for TD’s. ATL is now 9-5 under Mike Smith
& a legit playoff contender. MIN caught AZ in a flat spot LW celebrating a playoff berth & jumped out to
a 28-0 lead scoring 2 ret TD’s. They did hold AZ to four 1H FD’s & have now topped 30+ pts in 3 of 4
games. The did have DT Pat Williams (shoulder) go off on a stretcher LW & his status is unknown. ATL
outgained TB 373-325 & have now gained 348+ yards TEN STRAIGHT games. The success has been
led by a rush attack that has reached 99 yds 7 straight games. That matchup favors a MIN team that
is #1 in rush D & is allowing only 3.1 ypc. MIN also has 25 sacks in 6 home games which is something
QB Ryan isn’t accustomed to having been sacked just twice in 6 games. Both teams still are in the
playoff hunt & we’ll call for MIN to get the win with favorable matchups.

SEATTLE 23 NY Jets 20 - This expected to be the final home game for Mike Holmgren as the Seahawks
HC & while QB Hasselbeck missed LW it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him gut it out to play here. SEA is 5-2
ATS hosting an East Coast team while the Jets are 0-3 SU & ATS on the West Coast TY being outgained
359-303 losing by an avg score of 29-19. Favre has been less than impressive in these games passing for
just 206 ypg (64%) with a 1-6 ratio & alarming 5.3 ypc. The Jets #29 pass defense has given up 243 ypg
(68%) with a 6-2 ratio in the WC games. The Jets play down to the level of their competition as they are 2-3
SU & 1-4 ATS vs non-div teams with a losing record TY. SEA is 0-5 SU & 3-2 ATS vs non-div winning teams
TY. QB Wallace’s mobility adds a nice dimension to the offense & he has hit for a surprising 203 ypg (58%)
with a 7-0 ratio in his L5 games (4-1 ATS). While the defense is undersized they will be helped out by the
12th man at Qwest Field that will be very boisterous here & the Seahawks sell out for Holmgren.

Houston 30 OAKLAND 20 - This is only the 2nd time in Texans history that they are an AF. HOU is on
a 5-0 ATS run after knocking off TEN LW. In that game HOU outgained the Titans 375-281 & outFd’d
them 22-14. HOU has defeated 2 division foes & won in a cold weather environment giving them a
lot of confidence here. HOU has the #1 offense the L4W & will be able to move on an OAK defense
the is ranked #28 L4W having allowed 487 yds to NE LW. WR Johnson is back to being a playmaker
(207 yds, 18.8) which opens the run game for Slaton (100, 4.2). OAK has the #31 in offense the L4W
& although they did score 26 pts vs NE they had just 5 FD at HT & got the majority in garbage time.
The bounce they got from HC Cable is now gone & if you look at the normal Raiders attitude the past
few years you’ll see they‘ve gone 0-6 SU & ATS the L2W of the season losing by 18 ppg. It’s clearly a
matchup of one team looking ahead & the other team wondering what is to come.

DENVER 24 Buffalo 17 - The Broncos beat the Bills 15-14 in LY’s season opener as a 3 pt AF. DEN
had a 470-184 yd edge as BUF lost 3 defensive starters to injury during the game. DEN still needed a
42 yd FG to steal the win with no time left as they settled for 3 FG’s & 1 TD despite 8 of 10 drives going
into BUF territory. BUF is on a 1-6 ATS slump. DEN is 2-15 ATS as a HF. DEN has the #5 & #21 units (-3
TO’s) vs BUF’s #19 & #18 units (+1 TO’s) the L4W. DEN has gone 0-6-1 ATS at home TY being held to 17
or less in 4 of its L5 games with the exception being vs KC’s #32 defense. Tossing out the KC game BUF
has been held to 17 or less in 5 of its L7 games due to the QB play which has avg’d 180 ypg (59%) with
a 4-12 ratio without the KC game. DEN’s RB unit has been blasted by inj’s TY but are still a respectable
9th in rushing TY (114 ypg 4.5) & get a BUF team that has given up 134 ypg rushing (4.7) the L6 games.
DEN will need to come out & play hard here so as to ensure that they don’t have to deal with a SD team
that would love to steal the division away from them. Their poor record as a favorite & not knowing if
Edwards will start here has us calling for DEN to win by 7 & await more information.

San Francisco 28 ST LOUIS 21 - This will be the Rams 6th blackout in 17 home games & the NFL only
had 6 blackouts TY throughout the entire NFL prior to this week. SF beat STL 35-16 as a 6.5 pt HF in the
first. SF scored on 5 of its first 6 drives as they forced 3 TO’s which set up 21 pts & took a 35-3 lead into the
half. STL was without RB Jackson & lost LT Pace, RG Incognito & CB Bartell during the game. In a clear
sign of how far STL has fallen & hard SF is playing under HC Singletary, SF is in its 1st AF role since Wk 8
2003. SF is 11-6-1 ATS in div play while STL is 5-11 ATS in div play. Since the beginning of 2005 the Rams
haven’t started the same 5 OL together for more than 5 games at a time. STL was in a great situation LW
at home vs a SEA team with its #2 QB behind an OL with 4 backups in front of him. STL once again failed
to make halftime adjustments & were blown away in the 2H being outFD 13-4 & outgained 257-99. STL
has allowed 325 or more yds in all but 1 game TY (BUF) & are allowing 155 ypg rushing (5.2) at home TY.
SF was without RB Gore LW but still outFD MIA 24-11 & outgained them 318-248 losing the game settling
for 3 FG’s inside MIA’s 20. SF is focused & finally has a sense of direction while STL is playing patchwork
football. We’ll call for SF to win by a TD & wait & see if Gore’s ankle will be ready here.

Carolina at NY GIANTS - This game was flexed to SNF after the Panthers impressive MNF win vs TB &
is a potential NFC Championship preview. The Giants rested RB Jacobs LW as they had earned the NFC
North title. This game has massive playoff seeding implications as if CAR wins here & at NO next week
then they will have the #1 seed. Both teams are built around power running & hard hitting defenses it’ll
be whichever QB makes the fewest mistakes that decides the game.
Play after 11:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or Welcome To Northcoast Sports.

Green Bay at CHICAGO - The Packers have been reduced to the role of spoilers in the NFC North
while CHI kept their playoff hopes alive after beating NO LW in OT. The Bears are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS
vs GB who beat them 37-3 as 3.5 pt HF in the 1st meeting. The Packers dominated CHI with a 24-9 FD,
427-234 yd & 14:56 TOP edges. Orton was still playing with low ankle sprain & was held to 133 yds (50%)
with just 2 passes to WR’s. While GB will go all out to make the Bears run at the post season as hard as
possible the Bears will have extra rest & confidence in Forte vs GB’s #26 rush defense. Tonight’s

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

10* MEMPHIS over South Florida
Late Score Forecast: MEMPHIS 29 - South Florida 30
St. Petersburg Bowl

There’s nothing wrong with St. Petersburg, but this new bowl game at Tropicana Field (home of the AL champ Tampa Bay Rays) isn’t where nearby USF, which entered the season with dreams of a BCS bid, expected to spend its postseason. And the main reason the Bulls didn’t land a better bowl assignment was an inability to generate a consistent infantry diversion to take pressure off harried QB Grothe, who tossed 11 picks in his last 5 games when the Bull season unraveled (1-4 SU) down the stretch. Meanwhile, Memphis is nothing if not lively, especially with juco QB A. Hall healthy again and star RB Steele (5.7 ypc) providing balance. Note Tigers’ 9-2 spread mark last 11 getting double-digits, and bowl dogs of 10 or more stand eye-opening 52-24 vs. line this decade!

10* PITTSBURGH over *Tennessee
Late Score Forecast: PITTSBURGH 21 - *Tennessee 12
(Sunday, December 21)

Have the Steelers been toughened by the adversity they have endured throughout this season? CKO insiders say the Pittsburgh players are convinced of just that notion. Now, Pittsburgh has a chance to take over leadership of the AFC, and Ben Roethlisberger is throwing freely and accurately after his early-season shoulder woes. The Steeler receivers are vastly superior to those of the Titans, whose defense might have lost its key cog in the middle (check DT Albert Haynesworth’s knee injury).

10* CHICAGO over Green Bay
Late Score Forecast:*CHICAGO 31 - Green Bay 16
(Monday, December 22)

After a mid-season burst of promise, Green Bay—the defending NFC North champs—saw its campaign slide
downhill, due mostly to a declining defense (speedy MLB Nick Barnett out) and lack of a pass rush, which, of course,is crucial in these pass-happy days of the NFL. Now, stalwart RT Mark Tauscher is also gone, and the offense (just 37 total points the last two weeks) has also turned inconsistent. Meanwhile, Chicago is hot on the heels of the Vikings in the North, and HC Lovie Smith (6-3 vs. G.B.) puts special emphasis on every game vs. the rival Packers.

10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC over
Central Michigan
Late Score Forecast: FLA ATLANTIC 40 - C. Michigan 35
Motor City Bowl at Detroit, MI

Oddsmakers have given a bit too much respect to CMU’s offense and not enough to venerable FAU HC Howard
Schnellenberger. Schnellenberger’s Owls have three 1st-team all-conference defenders, an excellent OL and a hot QB in Rusty Smith. Smith tossed 18 TDPs as the Owls went 5-1 down the stretch. Certainly CMU QB (and MACMVP) Dan LeFevour is dangerous, but FAU stars LB Frantz Joseph, DT Jervonte Jackson and DB Corey Small (all RS seniors), will be primed to contain him. Meanwhile, the Owl offense boasts a ground game as well as Smith’s aerial attack. RB Charles Pierre set school single-game and seasonal rushing records this season operating behind sr. OL Nick Paris and John Rizzo (who also protect Smith extremely well). FAU took out Memphis in last year’s New Orleans Bowl...Chippewas are next.

11* NO. CAROLINA over W. Virginia
Late Score Forecast: NO. CAROLINA 34 - W. Virginia 20
Meineke Car Care Bowl

Situation favors North Carolina, playing in its home state, on grass, vs. West Virginia team lacking LY’s explosiveness and that best exhibits its speed on artificial surfaces. The Tar Heels have displayed better balance on offense in 2007, and their defense seems a good match for the Mountaineer spread option, with size and depth in the middle and good experience in the back seven. UNC’s QB play has been spotty TY, but the Tar Heels do possess a good short-yardage hammer in 245-pound RB Ryan Houston (8 TDR). HC Butch Davis (4-0 SU & vs. the spread at Miami) has shown a knack for bowl preparation.

TOTALS:

OVER (44½) in the Arizona-New England game—Cardinals’ defense rarely flies east with them; Pats’ offense dynamic, but defense injurythinned....

UNDER (46) in the Tcu-Boise State game (Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23 in San Diego)—Horned Frogs’ defense among the best in the nation; Broncos’ among the more underrated...

OVER (63) in the Florida Atlantic-Central Michigan game (Motor City Bowl, Dec. 26 in Detroit)—Two high-flying offenses; two marginal defenses; dome conditions.

NINE-RATED GAMES:

BYU (+3) vs. Arizona (Las Vegas Bowl, Sat., Dec. 20)—Disappointed Cougars have a chance to redeem themselves after their giveaway vs. Utah; have the offensive weapons to do it....

DENVER (-6½) over Buffalo—Broncs 0-6 as a home favorite, but they can clinch the AFC West with a win; defense getting healthier.

KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

NFL

Thursday, December 18h, 2008

@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts
became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game
winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its
face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and
not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with
a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in
their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the
touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the
undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the
travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the
lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand
with multiple fractures.

I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database
pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last
2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public
darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6
points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.

As we reach the end of the season my database contains a
number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will
finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply
to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This
play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6
ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but
have won straight up only once in that span despite an
average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off
their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6
ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie
against the Eagles.

The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and
while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat
them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the
Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their
points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once
all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on
Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a
much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just
enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end.
Indianapolis by 1

Sunday, December 21st, 2008

@Chiefs (+4) over Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Here we have a late season matchup between two teams
that have really picked up their level of play as the season
has progressed, albeit to different levels of success. Miami
is the league’s true surprise this season under new HC
Tony Sparano, as they’ve already won 8 more games than
they did last season, and are in a dogfight for the AFC
East. The Chiefs on the other hand, while only 2-11, have
5 losses to playoff contenders by 7 or less point in the
second half of the season, after losing 4 of their first 6
games by 15 or more points. KC did not trail at the half in
any of those 5 tough losses, leading in the last two
minutes of 3 of them, and missing a two point conversion
attempt that would have taken a lead with :29 left in
another. They have continued to play hard despite their
record, and this game should be no different. Yes, they
are off of a true heartbreaker against San Diego this past
weekend, but they’ve had so many of these tough losses, I
doubt they will feel sorry themselves and come out flat
here in their last home game.

Miami’s success this season has not been a fluke, as they
are solid on both sides of the ball, showing positive net
yards per play number in both yards per pass and yards
per rush. However, as many emerging teams often do,
they’ve struggled in the role of favorite. They are 1-6 ATS
as chalk this season, and this is only the 4th time in 17 road
games that they have been handicapped at better than +3.
In their only game as road chalk during that stint, they
squeaked out a 4 point win against a St. Louis team that
besides their 3 point home loss to equally hapless Seattle
this past week, has not come within 19 points of an
opponent in any other of their last 7 games. There’s a big
difference between the hunter and the hunted in this
league, and although they’ve hung on for dear life in some
wins recently against mediocre opposition, they are not
good or experienced enough to pull away. With the
pressure continuing to mount, it will be interesting to see
how the young Dolphins perform in their last two games,
both of which are on the road.

Arrowhead Stadium has long been one of the league’s
strongest home fields, and the Chiefs now stand 27-7 ATS
as a home underdog against an opponent off of a win.
They are playing their last home game here, and the crowd
will be behind them to the fullest. KC has shown a lot of
offensive spunk lately, having scored 19 or more in 8
straight games, and will be hard to shake here, having
played similar caliber opponents extremely close for two
months now. Will gladly take points here against a Miami
team that has struggled to put away other mid-tier or weak
opposition, and is unfamiliar territory as a road favorite in a
playoff race. Kansas City by 3

Falcons (+3½, -120) over @Vikings
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Vikings crushed the Cardinals Sunday, jumping out to
a 21-0 first quarter lead and coasting 35-14. Tarvaris
Jackson filled in for Gus Ferotte and tossed 4 TD passes.
But we’re not buying what the Vikings are selling.
Minnesota has gotten back into the playoff hunt by
catching teams in letdowns and other bad situations. The
Cardinals were certainly such an outfit. They had clinched
their first divisional title in eons the previous week and
obviously felt that they had little to play for. The big early
deficit took them out of their game, and Arizona passed
the ball on 50 of 57 plays. That’s right, only 7 running
plays. I can’t remember a more imbalanced run/pass
differential in the NFL. Additionally, the Cardinals just
really aren’t that good. And they realize that themselves.
Cardinals DE Darnell Dockett after the big loss Sunday
said, "I'll tell you how it is. We play in a division that's
weak . . . and we're running out of excuses."

While discounting the Vikings win on Sunday, the fact that
Atlanta found a way to win was impressive. Atlanta QB
Matt Ryan had a horrible game. Both of his interceptions
killed productive drives and a 3rd quarter certain TD was
first called a TD but reversed to a turnover. Teams don’t
win often with a 3-1-turnover disadvantage. The fact that
Atlanta found a way to get things done in overtime despite
the drive-killing nature of the interceptions was impressive.
Vikings monster nose tackle Pat Williams is out of this
game with a shoulder injury, which hurts the Vikes run
defense considerably. On the other side of the ball,
Minnesota can run, but isn’t the greatest passing team.
While the Falcons run defense has been vulnerable,
replacing linebacker Michael Boley with Coy Wire in nonpassing
situations helped shore up the run D. Due to a
lack of respect for the Vikings passing attack, and the
presence of Adrian Peterson, the Falcons D will be able to
put more focus on the run.

The Falcons overcame a lot of mistakes, while the Vikings
had everything their way. With either Ferotte or Jackson at
quarterback for coach Brad Childress in a legitimately big
game, we’ll look for Minnesota to make some key mistakes
in crunch time while Matt Ryan bounces back against a
pass defense that is much more vulnerable than the stellar
Tampa group he faced on Sunday. Falcons by 3.

@Seahawks (+5) over Jets
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Jets should put a nice Christmas card in the mail for
Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron. With just about 2 minutes
to play in the game, the Bills had a 2nd and 5 with a chance
to put the game on ice with one more first down. Running
back Marshawn Lynch was having a monster game for
Buffalo. He ran for 127 yards on 21 carries, and there was
no question he would be responsible for picking up the last
five yards and sealing a nice win for the Bills. But, after a
Jets timeout, Buffalo called one of the most idiotic plays
I’ve even seen. Instead of handing the ball off to Lynch,
they asked J.P. Losman to roll out and throw the ball. And
if you didn’t see what happened, I’m sure you know where
this is heading. Losman fumbled, and Shaun Ellis of the
Jets picked it up and returned it for the game-winning
touchdown. That was the last thing the Bills needed
because their ship was already sinking. Jauron took the
fall as he said he overruled offensive coordinator Turk
Schonert on that play. Regardless of who called the play,
it was a bonehead mistake that handed the Jets a very
fortunate win.

We had the Bills in that game, and got the spread cover.
It was purely a fade of the Jets, and we’ll play against
them once again here for all the same reasons. Brett
Favre did not play good for a third consecutive game. He
completed only 56.7% (17-30) of his passes for 207 yards.
He also threw two bad interceptions with one resulting in
seven points for the Bills. As we mentioned last week,
Favre seems to be playing old. And he admitted to such
after the game: “Maybe I don’t have the arm I once had,”
he said. “I don’t know.” Again, there is no deep threat
capability for the Jets right now, which prevents this team
from stretching out leads. Their defense is also getting
carved up. Over their last five games, the Jets are
allowing 391 yards per game and 25.8 points per game
which is 60 yards and almost 4 points more per game than
their seasonal average. That’s a downward trend that says
to take the points no matter who the Jets’ opponent is.

Seattle hasn’t quit on the season. For a team that has
made the playoffs for five straight years, you’d think with
just three wins on the year they would have packed it in
already. But that’s not the case at all. The Seahawks have
played competitive football over the last month. In their
most recent six games, the Seahawks won just one game,
which came last week at St Louis. But the five losses came
by 2, 6, 3, 25, and 3 points. Take out the blowout loss at
Dallas, and five of the last six Seattle games were decided
by 6 points or less. They’ve gone 4-2 against the spread in
those games, and going back a little further shows the
Seahawks are 6-3 to the number their last nine ballgames.
This is also a good set-up and situation for them. Off the
road win, they should carry a little momentum into their
last home game of the year. They haven’t won at home
since September 21st, and with this being the Jets second
West coast road trip in the last three weeks, look for
Seattle to upset a tired and declining Jets team.
Seahawks by 3.

@Bucs (-3½) over Chargers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It looks like Jeff Garcia will be ready to go in this one after
being a late scratch on Sunday. This is a critical game for
both teams, and especially for the Bucs. After a pair of
losses, Tampa desperately needs a win to have a shot at
the postseason. Though both have need, the Bucs are in a
much better spot, at home off of consecutive road losses.
The Chargers are traveling off of a lucky win, not the most
positive NFL situation.

With less than five minutes left in their game in Kansas
City, the Chargers had only 234 yards against the sieve-like
Chiefs defense. They got the miracle sequence…TD drive,
onside kick, TD drive, but other than the very end it was
not an impressive performance by the Chargers. And it’s
just another one of a string of unimpressive performances.
If the Chargers win here, and the Broncos lose at home to
the Bills, then the final week’s Chargers/Broncos game
turns into a divisional championship affair. But the
Chargers just aren’t all that good. They are 6-8 and two
of those wins were by 1 point over 2-12 Kansas City.
In his final days as defensive coordinator, expect Bucs
defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin to burn the midnight oil
after getting torched on the ground in consecutive weeks
by divisional foes Carolina and Atlanta. Getting back both
starting defensive tackles would certainly help matters.
Fortunately for Kiffin, LaDanian Tomlinson, who went for
only 39 yards on 15 carries in Kansas City, is a shell of his
former self. Tomlinson has surpassed 100 yards only twice
all year, with those totals being 105 and 106 yards. In his
last three games, Tomlinson has only 54 carries for only
154 yards. He has exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in a
game only three times all year. And with the Chargers not
in a position to take advantage of the Bucs run defense,
they’ll have to throw the ball. And the Bucs pass defense
is excellent; nabbing 21 interceptions to only 17 opponents
TD passes. Opposing quarterbacks have a miniscule 69.4
passer rating against them. The Bucs defense is banged
up. Jermaine Phillips is out. Derrick Brooks, who has
never missed a game since joining Tampa in 1995, has rib
issues. Check the Tampa injury report this week. But even
if the injury news is not the best, Tampa should offer a
peak performance. After consecutive losses, it is
desperation time for the Bucs. With their quarterback back
in the lineup, look for them to bounce back strong against
a flawed Chargers team that’s fortunate to even be in
playoff consideration. Bucs by 10.

Pointwise

NFL KEY RELEASES
3--HOUSTON over Oakland 33-17
4--SAN FRANCISCO over St Louis 27-13
4--NEW ORLEANS over Detroit 40-20
5--PHILADELPHIA over Washington 20-10
5--SEATTLE (+) over New York Jets 23-24

THURSDAY
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Seven straight wins for the
Colts, with but 3 covers in that stretch, with their last 3 RGs decided by just 4, 3,
& 4 pts straightup. But this is a revenger, & Peyton is in synch (28-of-37 for 318
yds vs hapless Lions), & now 23/12 for the season. Jags in off snapping 4-game
SU slide, as well as 0-6 ATS home run slide. Thus, the dog is now 15-2 ATS in
J'Ville games. The Jags are 9-2 ATS in Dec, vs an opponent off a pair of wins, as
well as 8-2 ATS as division dogs. Another? Okay, they are 6-2 ATS vs the Colts.
And Indy is just a 1-8 ATS chalk, off a double digit win vs an opponent off a win.

SATURDAY
DALLAS 16 - Baltimore 15 - (8:15 - NFL) -- No TDs for the Ravens, in their war
with the Steelers, losing in the final minute. Now tied with the Dolphins, Patriots,
& Jets, in the race for the final Wild Card spot. Just 12 FDs vs Pitt, but still on a
brilliant 11-3 spread run, holding 10 opponents to 13 pts or less. Cowboys also
hanging in for possible Wild Card slot, but winding up with no less than Steelers,
Giants, Ravens, & Eagles is a tall order, indeed. It seems improbable, but both
stellar squads could wind up on the outside looking in. Domination of Giants a
huge plus for Dallas, but 'Boys only 7-16 ATS off DD division win. An all-out war.

SUNDAY
TENNESSEE 19 - Pittsburgh 16 - (1:00) -- Five straight wins for the Steelers,
clinching the AFC North, in the process. Allowed only 12 FDs, while holding
the Ravens without a TD, & winning in the last 0:43, thanks to a brilliant 92-yd
drive. Thus, they've held 10 foes below 18 pts, & have covered their last 5 RGs
by 78½ pts. Sure, this is their 4th straight killer, but owning the best "D" in the
NFL sure comes in handy. Titans went from a 527-57 RY edge in their previous
2 games to a 107-100 RY deficit at Houston, but allowed only a single "O" TD.
Pitt is 1-8 ATS off pulling a division upset. Another all out war, to the final gun.

Miami 30 - KANSAS CITY 20 - (1:00) -- The efficient Dolphins now stand at 9-5,
after LY's 1-win campaign. They've not allowed a TD in their last 3 games, &
have thrown only 10 INTs all year, & definitely on track to beat the record of 14
by the '90 Super Bowl champion Giants. The Chiefs blew a 21-3 lead, losing in
the final 0:36, LW, & have allowed 34 ppg in last 5 hosters. But they are at 22
ppg, offensively, in their last 7, with their "Pistol" offense. We are well aware of
the fact that the dog is 12-0 ATS in Miami games, by 150½ pts, but the Fish are
12-4 ATS as a non-division RFs. Bounceback off anemic 11 FD effort vs Niners.

NEW ENGLAND 37 - Arizona 20 - (1:00 - NFL) -- Patriots came from 84 RYs in
narrow escape vs the Seahawks, to 277, in rout of the Raiders, as the amassed
487 yds, with Cassel's 4 TDs leading the way. Cards set NFL season low, with
only 7 rushes in their 35-14 loss to Minny (239-43 RY deficit), with their only TD
coming on a 50-yd pass from Warner. Are 0-4-1 ATS on the non-division road,
& have allowed 40 ppg in their last 3 losses (on 1-3 slide). Sure, the Pats were
stung for 34 & 33 pts in their last 2 HGs, & are allowing 28.4 ppg in their last 5
games, but 'Zona is 4-20 ATS on non-division road off a SU loss. A Patriot call.

CLEVELAND 17 - Cincinnati 16 - (1:00) -- When these 2 met here a year ago,
the Browns walked away with a win in a 51-45 thriller. Don't expect a repeat.
No Palmer vs Anderson. Try Fitzgerald vs Dorsey. Despite Cincy's upset of
the 'Skins (no TOs for 1st time in their last 10 games), they still rank last in the
NFL on "O", & have been outscored 82-26 in their last 3 gms. But Browns rank
28th on "O", & have yet to cover as a fav, with the visitor 9-1 ATS in Cleve tilts.

Philadelphia 20 - WASHINGTON 10- (1:00) -- All she wrote for the 'Skins, whose
6-2 start has deteriorated into a 7-7 record. Three straight losses, managing
just 6, 10, 7, 10, 13 pts in losing 5 of their last 6. Just 15 FDs vs lowly Cincy.
The Eagles have turned it around since their embarrassing loss to Baltimore, &
despite coming off a Monday Nighter, with Dallas dead ahead, note the visitor
with a perfect 6-0 ATS log in Philly division games. As a matter of fact the Eags
are 22-10 ATS on the NFC East road. And that Philly "D" ranks 4th in the NFL.

San Francisco 27 - ST LOUIS 13 - (1:00) -- That's right, no TDs for the Niners in
their loss to the Dolphins, but they did just about everything else to win, with a
24-11 FD edge, a 38:12-21:47 time of possession advantage, & a 70-yd edge.
No, it has been too late for any '08 run, but SanFran has performed super since
the insertion of Singletary (+46 pts ATS, & just 4 pts from a 6-0 spread run),
holding 4 of their last 5 opponents below 17 pts. Rams in off latest futility, &
now have a 216-77 pt deficit in their last 7 games. They're 9-22 ATS in division
play, & 13-27 ATS off a SU/ATS loss. Can't see Frisco improvement derailing.

MINNESOTA 30 - Atlanta 23 - (1:00) -- Franchise records galore. A week ago,
Falcon RB Turner set a team record with his 15th rushing TD of the season, in
OT win over the Bucs. He now has 1,269 RYs, as he, along with QB Ryan,
have the Falcs at 9-5, off LY's 4-12 mark. But check a 239-43 RY edge for
Minny vs the Cards, with Peterson now at a franchise-best 1,581 RYs. And
check Jackson with 4 TD tosses vs 'Zona. Win clinches NFC Central, so note
Vikes with a 31 ppg average in 7 of their last 8 outings, & winning their last HG,
34-14 (16½ pt cover). The Falcons are just 11-25 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.

New Orleans 40 - DETROIT 20 - (1:00) -- Well, the Saints are out of it, despite
owning the #1 offense in the NFL, with Brees now at 4,332 PYs & 28 TDs. And
to make matters worse, they've lost their "O" coordinator, Doug Marone, who is
the new head man at Syracuse. But they are a solid 6-1 ATS as a chalk this yr,
are 6-1-1 ATS in non-division play, & aren't about to become the Lions' lone
victim. Detroit is zeroing in on NFL all-time futility record, with their 0-14 log
matching '76 Bucs' final record (only winless NFL campaign). The visitor is on
a 10-1 ATS run in Detroit tilts. Can't see pathetic Lion "D" containing this "O".

NEW YORK GIANTS 22 - Carolina 19 - (8:15) -- Unimaginable comedown for
the Giants, whose top-ranked overland game has produced just 87, 108, 88, &
72 yds the last 4 weeks, after having its way thru their first 10 games. Thus,
their seemingly invincibility has been shattered with a pair of division losses to
the Eagles & Cowboys. Can they regroup vs the Panthers, who have been a
thing of beauty (1,136 RYs last 5 wks), behind Williams (9.8, 7.3 ypr last 2
wks) & Stewart? This decides the home field throughout the playoffs. Tuff call.

New York Jets 24 - SEATTLE 23 - (4:05) -- Favre vs Holmgren. Home finale for
Mike, who has certainly seen better times, with his current 3-11 record hardly a
proper epitaph as to his contribution to the sport. 'Hawks in off scoring 10 pts
in the final 2:47 to take the Rams, but still no Hasselbeck. The Jets need them
all, as they are tied with the Pats & Dolph, atop the AFC East. But note a 25-10
FD deficit in their last RG, with the dog covering their last 5 guest shots. NY is
6-15 ATS on the non-division road, & Seattle is a 15-5 dog off a SU &ATS win.

Houston 33 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- Five straight covers for the Texans, who
are on a 3-0 ATS run on the road, by 24 pts. And their current 4-game SU run
is a franchise record. Their 3rd-ranked "O" is cooking behind Schaub (23-of-
39 vs Tenn), Johnson (11 catches for team record 207 receiving yds LW), &
Slaton (100 RY plateau 4 of last 5 wks). The Raiders? Try allowing 7 TDs LW.
Try a 110-45 pt deficit in their last 4 HGs. Try being held under 17 pts in 8 of
their last 10 games. And try a 3-18 ATS mark in their home finale. All Texans!

DENVER 27 - Buffalo 24 - (4:05) -- Finally some "O" from the Bills, with Lynch
motoring for 127 yds (6.0 ypr), but another setback, this time on fumble return
TD in the final 2 minutes at the Jets. Four TOs by Losman in that one, by the
way. But they should move it vs the woeful "D" of the Broncos, who still haven't
clinched their division. Denver scored 10 pts in its first 2 possessions vs the
Panthers, but scoreless, thereafter. The visitor is 6-1 ATS in Bronco games, &
the dog is 10-2-1 ATS, as well. The Broncos prevailed in their meeting on
opening week, a year ago, on a FG as time expired. A repeat is very possible.

TAMPA BAY 23 - San Diego 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight losses for the Bucs for the
first time all year, altho it took OT at Atlanta, to do it. No Garcia in that one, but
Griese was a decent 26-of-36, in that tight setback. Back home, where they
are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS, losing by ½ & 1 pt). Chargers finished LY with 9 straight
covers, & are a brilliant 12-0 SU in December. Still fighting for a post-season
slot, & in off overcoming a 21-3 deficit at KC, with Rivers a solid 28/11. But they
are far from dependable, overland. Tampa is 34-18 ATS as a non-division host,
as well as 25-13 ATS off a loss of <4 pts. Just too many home field factors hr.

MONDAY
CHICAGO 24 - Green Bay 22 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Four straight losses for Green
Bay, both SU & ATS (minus 43½ pts), allowing 32.5 ppg in those 4. Now 6 losses
by 4 pts or less, SU. Can't blame Rodgers, whose 23/12 mark is more than a bit
respectable. But no running game (Grant: <4.0 ypr), no running "D" (#27). The
Bears are basically 1½ back, with 2 to play, but still hoping. The chalk is 5-0-1
ATS in Chicago games, by 74 pts ATS, but note a 345-226 yd deficit in its win
over the Saints. And check just 81 RYpg, offensively, in 5 of last 6 games. Bears
just 2-7 ATS hosting GreenBay. Packer demise unexpected, but this is a good'un

Logical Approach

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK

NEW YORK GIANTS - 3 over Carolina - This is a huge game that has been moved to Sunday night. The winner of this game earns the top seed in the NFC while the loser could slip to the number 3 seed. Should Carolina lost they might miss the Playoffs altogether. After a pair of losses to teams desperate to win to keep their Playoff hopes alive, the Giants now seek to reverse their negative momentum against a Carolina team playing their best football of the season, having won 3 straight and 7 of 8. The Panthers, 8-0 at home, are just 3-3 on the road. The Giants are defending champs and their losses the past two weeks were both to Division rivals seeking revenge. Despite the recent off field distractions the Giants are still a close knit team and should respond favorably to the pressure of now themselves being in need of a critical win. New York Giants win 27-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

DETROIT + 7 over New Orleans - Will this be the week the Lions get that elusive win and avoid the possibility of an 0-16 season? To Detroit's credit they have not quit and have a pair of close losses to Minnesota and Indianapolis the past two weeks from which to draw some hope and perhaps confidence. New Orleans has now been mathematically eliminated from the Playoffs but may still play under the pressure of not being the team that loses to the Lions. In reality the players may not truly care but may be more interested in staying healthy the final two weeks as their disappointing season ends. At the very least, the Saints do not deserve the high degree of favoritism they are being shown . They are 2-6 away from home, winning at Kansas City and over San Diego in London. The time is right for Detroit to end their losing skein and they face the perfect team against which to do so. As bad as Detroit has been defensively, the Saints are not all that much better. And they will be facing a highly motivated opponent. Detroit wins 28-27.

SEATTLE + 5 over N Y Jets - The Mike Holmgren era is winding down and the popular Seattle coach walks the home sidelines for the last time as his 'Hawks face the Jets, ironically now guided by Holmgren's prized pupil from his days in Green Bay, QB Brett Favre. Seattle will be out to win this last home game for their coach but they face a Jets' team in a three way battle for the AFC East title. The Jets are staggering down the stretch and were very fortunate to beat Buffalo last week. They've played poorly out west, losing this season at Oakland, San Diego and San Francisco. The Seahawks have played better of late and their last two efforts - a 3 point home loss to New England and their come from behind win at albeit lowly St Louis - shows they have not quit. If there's one big effort left in this team, it shows here. Seattle wins 23-20.

TAMPA BAY - 3 ½ over San Diego - This game's been moved to 10 AM Pacific time so San Diego takes the field several hours ahead of Denver, meaning a win by the Chargers keeps them alive for the Playoffs. This could be short lived but if Denver loses at home to Buffalo the Chargers need only beat Denver next week in San Diego to win the AFC West. Tampa controls its fate for the Playoffs and a win here virtually assures that of happening as Tampa hosts lowly Oakland next week. Thus this game should be played with great intensity with neither team wanting to make a mistake and the team in the lead looking to protect that lead. That should mean conservative game plans featuring more running than passing unless the game gets one sided. The offenses surprisingly are even but Tampa's defensive edge is great. Tampa Bay wins 23-16.

Best of the NFL Totals

Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER 45
Baltimore/Dallas UNDER 39 ½
Pittsburgh/Tennessee UNDER 35
Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 34 ½
Atlanta/Minnesota OVER 44 ½
New Orleans/Detroit OVER 50 ½
Houston/Oakland UNDER 44
San Diego/Tampa Bay UNDER 42

Logical Approach

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:

Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll

5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?

Eagle Bank Bowl - Washington, DC - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This is one of two Bowl rematches of games played during the regular season. On September 27 Navy, 2-2 at the time, traveled to Wake Forest (3-0). Wake was a 17 point home favorite but was upset by Navy 24-17. Navy outgained Wake 343-313. Navy's offense was strongly rush oriented (292 yards) while Wake relied predominantly on the pass 270 yards). Navy never trailed, leading 17-0 at the half and 24-10 in the fourth quarter. The Midshipmen are in their sixth straight Bowl game and first under coach Ken Niumatalolo as Navy continued their solid play following the departure of ex-coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech after last season. Wake is in their third straight Bowl game. Navy enjoys a solid home regional edge as Annapolis is just a short 37 miles away whereas Wake's fans must travel over 300 to show their support. Clearly Wake played their best football early in the season whereas Navy was much more consistent over the course of the season, winning their final 2 games and 7 of their last 9. Overall, the ACC was very ordinary this season with no team standing out or challenging on the national scene. Historically Wake Forest has fared well when an underdog but not as well when favored. Navy's offense caused problems for Wake the first time around. This is the sixth meeting between these teams over the past decade and prior to Navy's win this season Wake Forest had won all four meeting. So even though this revenge for Wake from earlier this season Navy will still be motivated to show that the earlier win was no fluke. Navy's discipline and the fact they knew long ago that they would be in this Bowl game if the were Bowl eligible makes them the call. Wake Forest had some higher aspirations for post season play. The call is for Navy to pull the mild upset, winning 20-17 and making NAVY a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 1 Star Selection

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This appears to be the most unattractive of all 34 Bowl matchups but that does not mean it won't be a well played competitive game. These teams appear very evenly matched. Fresno State was expected to have a better season than the one that unfolded whereas Colorado State exceeded expectations in the first season in the post Sonny Lubick era after the long time coach retired after last season. Fresno's 2-10 ATS record shows just how much the Bulldogs underachieved as Fresno averaged being favored by under a TD this season. Neither team distinguished itself when stepping out of conference. Fresno's home 13-10 loss to Wisconsin was not as impressive as it appeared at the time considering how the Badgers struggled for much of the season. The same can be said of their road win at UCLA. Yes, they did rout Rutgers on the road to start the season but Rutgers did not gain their stride until mid season. CSU lost one sided games at Cal and to Colorado. Their most notable win came against Houston. There are more negatives than positives for both of these teams which means there are no real edges. Fresno has an edge in rushing offense while CSU has the passing edge. Fresno State does have more recent Bowl experience including a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in last season's Humanitarian Bowl. CSU is familiar with the site as a conference affiliate of host New Mexico. One large negative for Fresno is a defense that created on average just 1 turnover per game, ranking ahead of only Washington in that stat. The intangibles tend to favor the underdog as the Rams look at this game as a reward for a season in which steady progress was made. Fresno was thinking in much larger terms when the season began. Colorado State wins 24-20, making Colorado State a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

St Petersburg Bowl - St Petersburg, FL - Saturday, December 20, 2008

This Bowl is a major disappointment for South Florida on two fronts. First, the Bulls were expected to contend in what turned out to be a weak Big East conference this season, making their failure to do so all the more disappointing. Secondly, this Bowl is hardly a reward being played basically in their own neighborhood. Even a trip elsewhere within Florida would have generated more interest from the team, fans and alumni and thus the motivation for USF must be called into question. Memphis had a rather nondescript season with no notable wins. Their only win over a Bowl bound team was a 36-30 home win over Southern Miss. Memphis lost to the only other 2 Bowl bound teams they faced, Ole Miss and East Carolina. South Florida can at least claim wins over 3 Bowl bound teams (Kansas, North Carolina State and Connecticut) while losing to Pitt, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. South Florida played the tougher schedule with mixed success. The Bulls have a decided edge on defense, allowing 51 yards and 5.5 point per game less than Memphis. South Florida was # 9 nationally against the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. South Florida is clearly the better team but, again, motivation must be questioned. This is one of our least attractive games because of the big pointspread and the overall mediocrity of the teams. Still, taking huge points in a minor Bowl has historically been profitable as its hard to justify such large favoritism for what is essentially an average football team regardless of the opponent or site of game. As such we have a very lukewarm call for the side in this game with a slightly stronger preference for the Total. South Florida gets the win but by only 27-20, making MEMPHIS a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV - Saturday, December 20, 2008

BYU is making their fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl yet the program and team remains enthusiastic about getting to defend the Las Vegas Bowl title they've won the past 2 seasons following a loss 3 years ago. Arizona will be the fourth different Pac 10 opponent for the Cougars who have enjoyed tremendous crowd support the past three years. Arizona makes their first trip to a Bowl game in a decade and they will also have fan support as the Wildcats' men's hoops team is in town to face UNLV earlier in the day. BYU has one of the more dramatic S/U vs ATS records as their 10-2 straight up mark shows tremendous success on the playing field while their 3-8 ATS mark shows underachievement relative to expectations. But what this means is that BYU was heavily favored in most of their games, winning but failing to cover. In fact, BYU averaged being a 14.8 point favorite this season and they fell short of covering by an average of just 1.5 points. Here they are the underdog against a "Bowl Virgin" - a team that has not been to a Bowl in many years. Historically such favorites make for poor propositions when facing an experienced underdog such as the case here. BYU is familiar with the pageantry surrounding the Bowl and likely takes a ho-hum approach. Arizona is more apt to take in the festivities and thus be more distracted than their foes. There is recent history between these teams as they opened the season playing each other in 2006 and 2007. Arizona won the first meeting at home 16-13 as a 6 ½ point favorite. In 2007 BYU exacted revenge as a 3 ½ point underdog, winning 20-7. Both games were very low scoring perhaps because it was the season opener and the defenses were ahead of the more sophisticated offenses. Note that BYU will have been idle for 4 weeks and Arizona for 2 when this game kicks off, perhaps portending another low scoring affair. Both teams averaged 35+ points per game this season while each allowed just over 21 ppg. The weather could be cold with the late afternoon kick off which could work to keep scoring down as well. BYU had the nation's # 7 pass offense. Arizona was # 14 vs the pass. Arizona had slight statistical edges in the ground game although BYU had a lower yards per rush allowed average (3.9 vs 4.2). BYU was 2-0 against Pac 10 teams this season, fortunate to defeat lowly Washington 28-27 (Arizona beat the Huskies 48-14) and followed that win up with a 59-0 home rout of UCLA (Arizona won 31-10 at UCLA0. Arizona sis not step up in class outside Pac 10 play but did face one MWC foe, losing 36-28 at New Mexico (BYU defeated the Lobos 21-3 at home). BYU was thumped in mid season at TCU but then ran off 4 straight wins before losing at arch rival Utah to end the season. Arizona was more spotty down the stretch but did end their season by beating arch rival Arizona State 31-10. BYU has a major edge in Bowl experience and that edge combined with their talent, senior leadership and their program being in a more mature stage gives them the nod. BYU wins 27-23, making BYU a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .

New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA - Sunday, December 21, 2008

Southern Miss enjoys a slight regional edge in this game but Troy will be well represented at the site of their only previous Bowl win, 41-17 over Rice two years ago. Troy went 8-4 last season but did not win the Sun Belt title and thus went uninvited to a Bowl game. They will be very excited to be here. Southern Miss played one Sun Belt team this season, winning at Arkansas State 27-24 but being outgained 447-348. Troy soundly defeated ASU at home 35-9 to end the season, barely outgaining ASU 337-332. Southern Miss faced one team from a BCS conference, losing 27-13 at Auburn. They also lost 24-7 at home to unbeaten Boise State in mid season. Troy faced 3 members of BCS conference, losing at Ohio State (31-10), Oklahoma State (55-24) and their memorable 40-31 loss at LSU in which they led 31-3 in the third quarter! The game against Ohio State was closer than the final score shows, indicative of a team whose starters can compete for much of the game against more talented foes but whose lack of depth is what ultimately is too much. Southern Miss ended the season on a roll, winning 4 straight conference games to close their season. They are making a seventh straight Bowl appearance. Long time coach Jeff Bower was let go following last season's Bowl loss to Cincinnati. Our Conference Power Ratings show both Conference USA and the Sun Belt having improved this season with C-USA still higher rated but the Sun Belt closing the gap. Troy does enjoy most of the statistical edges in this game which is impressive considering their non-conference slate. Southern Miss did benefit from not having to face the two most high powered offenses in their conference (Tulsa and Houston) but did defeat ultimate conference champ East Carolina (21-3 at home). By scheduling tough Troy has shown it is not intimidated by mightier programs and here they only step up to face another non-BCD team. Troy's body of work justifies them being favored in this game and their overall performances suggest they should be able to get by a middle of the pack Conference USA foe. Troy wins 34-24, making TROY a 2 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection .

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, December 23, 2008

This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making BOISE STATE a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI - Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive Bowls since their Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M on New Year's Day 1994. During this span over 90 colleges have won at least one Bowl game. That's rather remarkable given the storied history of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame bottomed out last season with a 3-9 mark but their 6-6 mark this season is considered disappointing. Hawaii was also down this season after Georgia ruined their hopes of a 13-0 when the Bulldogs walloped Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl, exposing the class difference between the programs, Hawaii's coach and QB from last year's team are gone and the results showed on the playing field. Hawaii struggled against the quality teams they faced with their lone win over a Bowl bound team being at Fresno. Notre Dame's only win over a Bowl bound team was over Navy. Still, Notre Dame does have the better athletes. Hawaii has the home field. But even at home should Hawaii be favored over a team such as Notre Dame? Not if Notre Dame is motivated. And while early reports suggest there is not all that much enthusiasm for this Bowl expect that to change as game time nears. Look for Notre Dame to make a priority of building towards next season by ending their long time Bowl failures. Hawaii is by far the weakest Bowl foe Notre Dame has faced during their 9 Bowl losing streak. Even on the road Notre Dame is the better team. They played better opposition and have the better defense, especially against the pass. Sure, Hawaii usually gets some officiating breaks at home but that cannot be counted upon going in. Look for Notre Dame to be focused for this game and at least temporarily ease the pressure on coach Charlie Weis. This is not one of our stronger recommendations but we cannot overlook the class difference between the athletes and the fact that the better athletes are the underdogs. Notre Dame wins34-27, making NOTRE DAME a 3 Star Selection and the OVER also a 3 Star Selection