THE SPORTS MEMO
JARED KLEIN
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA -3
Recommendation: Minnesota
The Vikings have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL since their bye week, reeling off four straight wins and six out of seven after starting out the season 3-4. This week they play host to Atlanta who is off a huge divisional win over Tampa Bay. Fundamentally,Atlanta’s top source of offensive production -- Michael Turner and the run game -- figures to be moderate as Minnesota’s ability to stop the rush (71.2 ypg) is as good as anyone in the league. When the Vikings have the football there is no secret on what is going to happen (handoff) and who is going to get the football (Adrian Peterson). During its four-game win streak, Minnesota averaged 167.3 ypg rushing and three of those four teams currently rank ahead of Atlanta in terms of rushing yards allowed. While both Gus Frerotte and/or Tarvaris Jackson are far from being able to consistently win games on their own, the Vikings do just enough out of the passing game to keep teams honest. But no matter how you analyze it, when you win six of seven throwing the ball an average of only 21 times per game, your offensive line and running attack are special. That is certainly the case in Minnesota and we look for them to pound the football on the ground and earn a nice spread covering victory.
BRENT CROW
PITTSBURGH +1 AT TENNESSEE
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
It has been a grueling stretch of games for the Steelers after wins over New England,Dallas and Baltimore the last three weeks. This week they are on the road for the third time in four weeks and face a Tennessee team that enters off its second loss of the season. Normally, I would look to play against Pittsburgh in this position, but fundamentally they matchup well with Tennessee. The Titans’ run game is one of the league’s best, no question, but like any offensive unit, they can be shut down. Against the Jets, Baltimore and Minnesota, three of the NFL’s top run-stop units, Tennessee struggled, posting 168 yards on 67 carries (2.5 ypc). The Steelers rank right behind the Vikings, allowing 75 ypg on the ground. Pittsburgh has also been outstanding against the pass, holding Baltimore to under 100 yards last week and forcing five combined interceptions by Tony Romo and Matt Cassell previous to that. Tennessee ‘s defense has been just as good but there are some injury concerns with Albert Haynesworth (knee) and Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) potentially out for this contest. It will likely be a low-scoring affair and we’ll side with the Steelers to find a way to win yet another big game.
ERIN RYNNING
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA -3
Recommendation: Minnesota
Not many would’ve expected this contest to feature major playoff implications but as it stands, this is an important game for both parties. The Falcons find themselves in a tricky situation coming off three division games with a trip to San Diego sandwiched in between. Those four games were real dog fights and I’m concerned about their energy level this weekend. There are also some matchup issues. The Falcons are not a high-flying passing offense and Matt Ryan’s numbers on the road (82.2 QB rating) while solid are a step down from playing at home (100.3). The Birds’ running game makes their offense go and they face a Vikings unit that ranks No. 1 in the league in yards per game allowed. Defensively, the Falcons thrive in pressuring the quarterback and Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson,while not much of a passer, has the ability to avoid the rush. Minnesota has held strong at home with a lone three-point loss to the Colts in week two and figures to get a boost by playing in the Metrodome for only the second time in six weeks. Take the home team laying the short price.
ROB VENO
ARIZONA +7.5 AT NEW ENGLAND
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Patriots have a lot of factors in their favor for a straight up win here but the price tag appears to be a product of the type of inflation that often times takes place this time of year. The Pats are in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and the early weather forecast calls for cold weather and freezing rain. Meanwhile, Arizona is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in games on the East Coast and may be the product of playing in a horrible division. But while the “must win” tag applies to New England, Arizona has an imminent need of its own to play for. With the division clinched and the NFC’s No. 4 seed likely to be the best they can do, I look for the Cards to rebound from a poor performance in attempt to build postseason confidence. Fundamentally, this opponent suits Arizona just fine as the Patriots’ average pass rush and lack of size and speed in the secondary will likely be exploited by a strong passing attack. Overall, we are looking at a situation where we get to back a solid underdog getting an absorbent amount of points against a good but not great team. Even a convincing
seven-point win gets our ticket cashed with the Cardinals. Take the points.
FAIRWAY JAY
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA -3
Recommendation: Minnesota
A nice playoff push by the Vikings as they have won fourth-straight games and come off an impressive 35-14 road win at Arizona. A win this week against Atlanta and Minnesota wins the NFC North division. Despite playing their best ball the Vikings seem to be a little underestimated in the line. Their dominant running game rushed for 239 yards against the Cardinals to move them into the top three in league rushing just behind the Falcons. They should have more success on the ground against an Atlanta run defense that allows 4.8 ypr. Atlanta’s strength is also running the ball with quarterback Matt Ryan’s success playing a key role. Yet Minnesota’s defense allows less than 5.0 yards-per-play and is stronger in the trenches. Minnesota now leads the NFL in the top-2 run defense categories (71 ypg and 3.1 ypr). That figures to slow Atlanta’s strength and force Ryan into more long passing situations. The Falcons come in off two tough hard-fought division games including last week’s defensive grinder against Tampa Bay. That win kept Atlanta in the playoff picture and tied them for the final wildcard spot but as I see it, Minnesota is the better team and will prove it with a win this weekend.
TRUSHEL SPORTS
NY JETS -5 AT SEATTLE
O/U 44
Recommendation: Over
The Seahawks have suffered through a disappointing, injury-riddled campaign. It started from the outset, when they were forced to the scrap heap to find any healthy receiver. With injuries on the defense and at quarterback too, this team’s potential diminished with each passing week. Last week at St. Louis with a lineup of Sean Locklear at left tackle, Floyd Womack at left guard, Steve Vallos at center, Mansfield Wrotto at right guard and Ray Willis at right tackle, their offensive line did not feature a single original starter playing at his default position. Yet they have still continued to play hard as evidenced by the results in their last two games. Still with multiple injuries to the front line, this team is going to struggle against the Jets. Seattle, which for the most part has abandoned the run, will be completely one-dimensional. With little ability to protect the quarterback, the Jets will bring tremendous pressure and create turnovers and sacks. On the other side of the equation their offense should meet little resistance from the Seattle defense. The Seahawks rank dead last in the league in pass defense and are almost as equally inept at stopping the run. We expect a huge day from NY as they continue to push toward the AFC division title and a playoff berth. With a relatively low total we’ll point to plenty of big plays and recommend this one over the total
DONNIE BLACK
SAN DIEGO AT TAMPA BAY N/L
O/U N/L
Recommendation: Tampa Bay
While they have continued to play with effort despite being disappointed in the season, the Chargers are not a good football team. Yet throughout it all, the marketplace has been slow to recognize their deficiencies. Over the past eight weeks they are 2-6 ATS and 3-5 SU. In fact their only “legitimate” spread cover during this entire stretch was a 34-7 win over the Raiders. In defending the pass, the Chargers rank ahead of only one team in the league. On the road the numbers are worse across the board both offensively and defensively. At home the Chargers have played pretty well but on the road they have been outgained by nearly 55 ypg. They trail in every single relevant statistical category including time-of-possession, points scored and yards gained/allowed. Tampa Bay, meanwhile has been perfect at home posting a 6-0 straight up mark while allowing just 12 ppg. With an average margin of victory of more than 11 ppg they have dominated. Concerns at quarterback are an issue with Jeff Garcia potentially questionable due to a calf injury. Early reports indicate he should be okay. Regardless we expect Tampa, off back-to-back road losses to come in with a peak performance on the defensive side and create plenty of turnovers. With a better defense, home field advantage and an overrated opponent, this desperate Tampa Bay team will come in strong
THE SPORTS MEMO
MARTY OTTO
SOUTHERN MISS VS. TROY -4
Recommendation: Troy
This one boils down to a pretty basic philosophy for me -- back the better on defense. Troy has built somewhat of dynasty in the Sun Belt over the last few years but still carries that “best of the worst” stigma. If you go back and look at the results over the past three-plus years, you can clearly see this is a talented bunch. The Trojans ranked in the top 30 nationally in total and pass defense and are in the top five in sacks and tackles for loss. They also allow about a full yard per carry less on the ground compared to Southern Miss according to our Accu-Stat numbers, giving us a solid edge in both fundamental defensive categories. The last impression the Eagles left on the market was holding its final four opponents to 14 points or less, but we’ll look beyond those raw numbers. Their final four opponents barely averaged over 300 ypg of total offense combined. Troy, led by the ultra efficient Levi Brown at quarterback, should have no trouble sustaining drives and putting up points. Much like they did two years ago in this same bowl against Rice, Troy will roll over the C-USA opposition once again.
ED CASH
MEMPHIS VS. SOUTH FLORIDA -12.5 O/U 52
Recommendation: Over
Over the years, early bowl games have typically yielded a lot of high scoring affairs.
With no weather concerns and the artificial turf, the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl figures to be no different. While South Florida should be relatively pleased to be able to play a bowl game in their backyard, the weekly intensity you typically get from the Bulls may not be present when facing a 6-6 C-USA team. That doesn’t mean however, they won’t put points on the board. Memphis has allowed 26 or more in six of its past seven games and were one of many C-USA team that seemed comfortable trading scores this season. South Florida has more talent at the skills positions and should also have a size advantage up front. Memphis has some weapons of its own, especially with quarterback Arkelon Hall, who has returned from injury and should be at full strength. USF’s pass defense numbers look good on paper (194 ypg) but they had the luxury of facing a multitude of pedestrian passing attacks throughout the course of the season. Against Kansas’ Todd Reesing and Rutgers’ Mike Teel, the Bulls were torched for 667 yards and six touchdowns. Look for an abundant amount of scores in this one. Play it Over.
TEDDY COVERS
COLORADO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE -3 O/U 60
Recommendation: Over
It’s not hard to make a case for the Over in an early bowl game featuring a pair of teams that are much stronger on the offensive side of the football. After a great start to the season, Fresno’s defense quickly faded, allowing 34 ppg its final ten games. In their last six away from home, the Bulldogs allowed at least four touchdowns on five separate occasions. Colorado State went 5-1 to the Over in their last six games in large part because the offense started to click. Rams’ running back Gartrell Johnson ran for nearly 1,200 yards on the season and wide receiver Dion Morton caught five touchdowns in his final three games, developing a nice chemistry with senior quarterback Billy Farris. We project this balanced attack to have success against the Bulldogs’ stop unit. It’s a similar story when Fresno has the ball. Pat Hill’s squad enjoyed tremendous offensive balance this year. Three different running backs gained over 500 yards on the ground with all three averaging at least five yards per carry. And the Bulldogs own senior quarterback, Tom Brandstater, kept the pro-style offense balanced with nearly 2,500 passing yards. Against a Colorado State defense that allowed 34+ four times in its last six games, expect good offensive flow from the Bulldogs as well.
HELMUT SPORTS
BYU VS. ARIZONA -3 O/U 61.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Sure, the Cougars racked up some lop-sided wins against very poor teams like UCLA and Wyoming, but when forced to play teams ranked in the top 25 they lost both games against TCU and Utah. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule between these teams and were in every game with the biggest loss being by 10 to Oregon. These teams met last season with Arizona breaking out its new spread offense. The Wildcats struggled to score but much has changed since then. Arizona has gone from averaging 16 ppg two years ago to 37 ppg this season. In the past six seasons, the BYU football team has played 12 games against the Pac-10 with a record of 5-7. I believe the difference in this game is going to be with the defenses. The Wildcats have the No. 20 overall defense while the Cougars rank 58th. Considering that four of BYU’s 12 games were against teams ranked 99th or worse, their defensive numbers are somewhat skewed. Often, bowl games come down to what team has more interest. Arizona is going to the postseason for the first time since 1998 while BYU is going to its fourth consecutive Vegas jaunt. The Wildcats, after beating rival Arizona State, graciously accepted their bid. BYU, after getting spanked by rival Utah, was in no such mood to celebrate another trip to Sin City