Newsletters 12/3 - 12/7

GOLD SHEET COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 24 over Ohio U.
HAWAII by 1 over Wisconsin

*OREGON 33 - Oregon State 30—Those like us who recall the many lessmemorable
OSU-UO battles from the past (such as that epic 0-0 tie in 1983!)
can appreciate the tectonic shifts in the Pac-10 that have resulted in this year’s
“Civil War” being for the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth. It’s a bit risky
recommending against an explosive Duck contingent in Eugene, where Chip
Kelly’s prolific spread is undefeated TY and has tallied 46 ppg its last 4 at
Autzen Stadium...not to mention piling up nearly 700 yards of offense in LY’s
65-38 rout of the Beavers at Corvallis. But the bendable Duck “D” should allow
shrewd OSU QB Canfield to dink and play a little keepaway, and expect Mike
Riley to effectively deploy RB Quizz Rodgers (injured and DNP in LY’s Civil
War) to further milk the clock. Riley’s Beavers usually provide good value as
dog (8-2 last 10 in role), and “rivalry dogs” barked loudly last week. TV—ESPN
(08-Ore. 65-ORE. ST. 38...S.25-22 U.51/385 S.31/89 S.27/51/2/374 U.12/18/0/309 U.0 S.2)
(08-Oregon +2' 65-38 07-Osu +1 38-31 (OT) 06-OSU -3 30-28...SR: Oregon 56-46-10)

*WESTERN KENTUCKY 31 - Arkansas State 30—Winless Western
Kentucky (3 straight covers) fighting hard down the stretch for well-liked HC
David Elson, and Hilltoppers would dearly love to send their lame-duck mentor
out with a victory. WKU soph RB Bobby Rainey has 278 YR on 9 ypc in just last
two games. Versatile RS frosh QB Kawaun Jakes has 373 YP & 167 YR over
same span. Six of Arkansas State’s last nine contests have been decided by
8 points or fewer, with the hard-luck Red Wolves losing straight up in five of
those six close games. ASU RS frosh QB Ryan Aplin ran for 122 yards & 2 TDs
against North Texas last week, but he also threw 3 interceptions during the
Wolves’ 4-point home win over the hapless Mean Green. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1-1)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4

*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 34 - Ohio 10—This is the third appearance in
four seasons in the MAC championship game for Central Michigan. Chippewa
QB Dan LeFevour led CMU to a 35-10 win over Miami-O. in 2007 with 170 YR
and to a 31-10 decision over Ohio U. (314 YP, 3 TDP) in 2006. Expect a similar
result this time around, especially if Ohio U. QB Theo Scott isn’t 100%. Scott
was injured late in the Temple win and was on crutches (ankle) at the end of the
game. Scott’s mobility was a key factor against the Owls, and the Bobcats have
already lost co-starting QB Boo Jackson to a shoulder injury. Ohio HC Frank
Solich is resourceful, but doubt true frosh Tyler Tettleton (9 of 20 passing, no
TDs) or little-used RS sr. Brandon Jones (25 of 68 career passing) capable of
doing much damage facing a Chippewa defense that’s the best in the MAC,
allowing fewer than 18 ppg. Ohio is well-coached and plays well on special
teams, but Scott has been a key to the Bobcats limiting turnovers (they rank 6th
in nation in TO ratio). Bobcats also might be without services of key WR/PR
LaVon Brazill and their third-leading tackler, S Patrick Tafua. CMU is talented
on both sides of the ball and often looks like it should be in the Big Ten. TV—
ESPN2
(08-C. Mich. 31-OHIO 28...C.21-20 O.35/148 C.33/70 O.17/33/0/365 C.28/42/0/361 C.0 O.2)
(08-Cmu -3 31-28 06-Cmu -3' 31-10 at Detroit...SR: Central Michigan 20-4-2)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5

*CONNECTICUT 37 - South Florida 21—Both teams are already bowl
eligible. But cohesive Connecticut (9-1 vs. spread!) enters this tussle with far
more momentum than South Florida, which is just 2-4 straight up its last six
games after opening the campaign with five straight victories. Sure, vulnerable
Husky defense has permitted 1169 YP in just the last three games. But
seriously doubt whether temperamental dual-threat Bull QB B.J. Daniels, who’s
dropped some major stink bombs during the second half of the campaign, will
be able to take full advantage (especially if weather at Hartford turns wintry).
Much prefer to lay fair price with host UConn and its dynamic RB duo of speedy
soph Jordan Todman and slammin’ sr. Andre Dixon, who have combined for
1996 YR & 27 TDs. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-S. FLA. 17-Conn. 13...C.16-11 C.43/139 S.37/123 S.9/18/1/124 C.10/24/0/119 S.0 C.1)
(08-USF -3 17-13 07-CONN. +4 22-15 06-USF -6' 38-16...SR: South Florida 4-2)

RUTGERS 27 - West Virginia 19—Although both these teams will earn a
post-season invitation, West Virginia scouts say Mountaineers have already
played their “bowl game,” knocking off highly-ranked rival Pittsburgh last week,
19-16, on a 43-yard FG as time expired in the latest edition of the hotlycontested
“Backyard Brawl.” It would definitely be a mistake to back Rutgers
simply because West Virginia might be somewhat drained by its close victory
over the Panthers, but there are some fundamental factors to support the
Scarlet Knight side as well. Regressing Mountaineer sr. QB Jarrett Brown (only
3 TDP in last 6 games) has piloted the sputtering WV offense to just 19 ppg in
the last four outings. Meanwhile, Rutgers attack is on the upswing, thanks to a
pair of touted true frosh, rifle-armed QB Tom Savage and athletic WR/”Wildcat”
QB Mohamed Sanu (148 YR & 2 TDs last week). Plus, aggressive Scarlet
Knight defense (30 takeaways—fifth in nation) more likely to make gamealtering
plays than Mountaineer stop unit. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-W. VA. 24-Rutgers 17...W.17-14 W.50/175 R.26/72 R.15/33/0/198 W.14/19/0/158 W.0 R.0)
(08-WVA -14 24-17 07-Wva -6' 31-3 06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT)...SR: West Virginia 30-4-2)

Fresno State 34 - ILLINOIS 24—Won’t overreact to possible absence of
Fresno star RB Ryan Mathews, who leads nation in rushing, but who missed
Louisiana Tech game with a concussion suffered Nov. 14 against Nevada.
Bulldog mentor Pat Hill has viable alternatives in true frosh Robbie Rouse (456
YR; 5.9 ypc) and sr. Lonyae Miller (2039 YR, 5.5 ypc & 20 TDs in his career).
Hill’s Fresno teams have a 14-5-1 spread as mark as a visitor against non-WAC
foes, and Bulldog QB Ryan Colburn has corrected his early-season int.
problems (9 TDP, just 3 int. & 62% last 7 games). Can’t count on Illinois’ 93rdranked
defense for much, and Illini QB Juice Williams doesn’t have the quality
supporting cast of previous seasons. (FIRST MEETING)

LOUISIANA TECH 39 - San Jose State 10—Can’t blame Dick Tomey if he
wants to begin his retirement a week early, rather than endure another painful
exercise in futility by his SJSU “O” that’s scored a””robust” 9 ppg since
Halloween. And as Spartans already presented Tomey with his likely departing
gift in last week’s win (unwatchable as it was) vs. New Mexico State, hardly
compelled to support SJSU (no covers last 8 TY; 1-14 last 15 on board) in
Ruston, where La Tech 10-3 vs. line last 13 as host. Bulldogs (39 ppg at Joe
Aillet Stadium TY) own necessary firepower to extend margin.
(08-La. Tech 21-SJS 0...L.12-6 L.47/217 S.28/30 S.11/28/2/118 L.7/16/0/97 L.0 S.0)
(08-Tech +7 21-0 07-TECH -5' 27-23 06-SJS -9' 44-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

BOISE STATE 55 - New Mexico State 0—The only mysteries in Boise are
how high the line might rise on this one, and if Broncos can cover what will likely
be the biggest spread of ‘09. Considering Chris Petersen’s bunch has beaten
NMSU by a combined 107-0 the last two meetings, Aggies might not want to
deplane at Boise Airport. Curious if DeWayne Walker’s likely “stall tactics”
(expect NMSU to use every available second of play clock) can slow down the
game enough to keep Ags within huge number. But Broncs (7-1-2 vs. line last
10 laying 30 or more at home) usually good value no matter the price on blue
carpet, and Petersen not likely to risk possible BCS berth with anything less
than total domination.
(08-Boise St. 49-NMS 0...B.26-11 B.33/216 N.39/38 B.19/29/1/279 N.18/31/1/112 B.2 N.1)
(08-Bsu -21 49-0 07-BSU -24' 58-0 06-Bsu -26' 40-28...SR: Boise State 9-0)

Arizona 22 - SOUTHERN CAL 20—Not convinced late uprising vs. UCLA
(which included a pair of TDs in final 90 seconds, one of those a Buddy Ryanlike
rub-it-in TD bomb in final moments) an indicator that SC has cured the ills
that have bogged down its offense since midseason. Note that Mike Stoops’
Arizona teams have been competitive vs. better Trojan teams than this (Cats
have covered last 4 in series), and combo of long-haired “passing” QB Foles
and “running” QB Scott gives Sonny Dykes’ spread enough dimensions to move
chains vs. headhunting SC defense. Despite late cover vs. Bruins, Trojans still
just 2-8 vs. number last 10 TY. TV—ABC
(08-S. Cal 17-ARIZ. 10...S.19-13 S.41/151 A.30/100 S.21/36/1/216 A.14/31/1/88 S.1 A.0)
(08-Usc -15 17-10 07-USC -21 20-13 06-Usc -21 20-3...SR: Southern Cal 26-6)

WASHINGTON 24 - California 23—One of the truths of this almostcompleted
Pac-10 campaign is that Steve Sarkisian’s U-Dub capable of trading
points with almost anyone (save a hot Oregon) when Jake Locker is operating
at or near 100%. And since a recent “bye” allowed Locker’s bruised thigh to heal
in time for last week’s Apple Cup romp past Wazzu, Jake likely to prove the
difference in what might be his last game as a Husky (Mel Kiper, Jr. and others
projecting Locker as a high first-round NFL draft pick if he comes out early). Cal
a notorious underachiever lately as Pac-10 chalk (2-7 last 9 in role), and though
another likely absence by RB Jahvid Best not too significant (comrade Vereen
193 YR vs. Stanford), erratic QB Riley has blown hot and cold too often to trust
as sizable road chalk.
(08-CAL 48-Wash. 7...C.20-12 C.44/431 W.44/104 C.10/22/0/118 W.11/25/2/96 C.0 W.2)
(08-CAL -35' 48-7 07-WASH. +7 37-23 06-CAL -23 31-24 (OT)...SR: Washington 46-38-4)

Cincinnati 35 - PITTSBURGH 27—Despite Pittsburgh’s close loss at rival
West Virginia last week, the Panthers can still earn the Big East’s automatic bid
to a BCS bowl by knocking off Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the undefeated Bearcats
are still lurking on the fringes of the national championship discussion and, at
the very least, will capture a second straight conference title with a victory.
Stark contrast in offensive systems, with the Panthers operating mostly out of
an “antiquated” I-formation and the Bearcats winging the ball all over the field
out of their pass-happy spread. Even though it won’t be a surprise if Pitt’s
quartet of sr. QB Bill Stull (19 TDP, only 6 ints.), star true frosh RB Dion Lewis
(1446 YR), big-play soph WR Jonathan Baldwin (20 ypc), and sr. TE Dorin
Dickerson (10 TDC) do some damage against Cincy’s defense, have no interest
in bucking the quick-striking Bearcats (39 ppg) and now-healthy pinpoint sr. QB
Tony Pike (6 TDP last week!). Must exercise caution, however, if highlyregarded
Cincy HC Brian Kelly is pegged as a leading candidate to fill the
expected opening at Notre Dame in the days leading up to this game. TV—ABC
(08-CINCY 28-Pitt 21...C.22-15 C.38/87 P.26/35 C.26/32/0/309 P.18/29/1/229 C.1 P.1)
(08-CINCY -6 28-21 07-PITT +10 24-17 06-Pitt -7' 33-15...SR: Pittsburgh 7-1)

*HAWAII 31 - Wisconsin 30—Wisconsin has been an underachiever
against the points the last few seasons, and HC Bielema’s Badgers have
recorded just 3 of their last 10 wins by double digits. Meanwhile, bowl eligibility
and an automatic bid to the Hawaii Bowl (and perhaps a chance to face former
mentor June Jones’ SMU Mustangs) are on the line for the 6-6 Warriors (they
win, they’re in). Badgers are 76th in pass efficiency defense, while now-healthy
Hawaii soph QB Bryant Moniz keys the third-rated pass attack in the country.
Rainbow Warriors fully capable of springing upset on vacationing Wisconsin
and securing a sixth bowl appearance in seven years. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(DNP...SR: Wisconsin 4-1)

*FLORIDA INTL. 33 - Florida Atlantic 28—No strong recommendation in
this battle of Sun Belt also-rans. However, an accumulation of small edges
might allow Florida International to snap its vexing three-game losing streak
against bitter rival Florida Atlantic. The Golden Panthers have had extra time
to lick their wounds after their brutal beatdown at Florida on Nov. 21, while the
Owls needed all 60 minutes to dispatch pesky Western Kentucky last week.
FIU has two QBs—sr. Paul McCall & jr. Wayne Younger—who each have more
game experience than FAU jr. Jeff VanCamp (although VanCamp has played
well over the last month since taking over for injured star Rusty Smith). And,
lastly, the Panthers benefit from home-field edge in Miami this time around after
the last three meetings against the Owls took place on “neutral” ground at the
Dolphins’ stadium.
(08-Fla. Atl. 57-Fiu 50 (OT)...A.28-25 A.36/135 I.36/113 I.27/47/1/400 A.25/50/1/389 A.1 I.1)
(08-Fau -5 57-50 (OT) 07-Fau -11 55-23 06-Fau -4 31-0 all at Dolphin Stad...SR: FAU 6-1)
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
(Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium - Greenville, North Carolina)

EAST CAROLINA 33 - Houston 30—Handicapping this game is very
challenging, as Houston’s offense is so dazzling it’s easy to be blinded to
almost everything else in the matchup. The Cougars have been held to fewer
than 30 points just once all season (and that was their 29-28 upset win over Big
XII rep Texas Tech), and they’ve eclipsed 40 points sixteen times in the last two
campaigns. Jr. QB Case Keenum’s passing stats (9994 YP, 82 TDP, only 17
ints. in just the last two years!) look more like something you’d see in a video
game rather than what could possibly be achieved in actual football games. KO
power? Just ask Houston’s last two opponents, as the Cougars cold-cocked
poor Memphis & Rice with a combined 103 points & 908 yards during the first
half in a pair of lopsided victories.
Still, while we wouldn’t be surprised if Houston is able to ride its juggernaut
attack past East Carolina, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Pirates are
capable of emerging with a win. First, ECU’s deep, veteran defense is no
pushover and rates a substantial edge over the poor-tackling Cougar stop unit.
(Remember, the proud Pirates went on the road for last year’s C-USA title game
and pulled off a major upset by successfully defusing the ticking time-bomb that
was Tulsa’s top-ranked offense). Also, ECU has a sixth-year senior at QB in
Patrick Pinkney (68%, 795 YP no ints. in last three games), who’s found a good
groove down the stretch after struggling early. And Pinkney & the Pirates
benefit from a productive rushing attack that could keep Keenum & Co. idling on
the sidelines for substantial stretches. Add in head coach Skip Holtz’s solid 21-
10 mark as an underdog since taking the helm at ECU (although he’s just 1-3
in that role this season), and we’ll go against prolific Houston (GULP!) in favor
of the more well-rounded host Pirates. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-Hou. 41-E. CAR. 24...H.25-13 H.40/222 E.36/126 H.36/44/1/399 E.15/28/2/149 H.3 E.1)
(08-Houston +10' 41-24 07-Ecu +13' 37-35...SR: East Carolina 5-4)

Florida 27 - Alabama 17—The year has changed, but not sure the dynamics
are much different than when Florida pulled away late for 31-20 win over Bama
in LY’s SEC title game. Tide might be a bit more menacing on the attack end
than year ago, but the veteran Florida “D” has the required speed to limit the bigplay
potential of Tide homerun weapons WR Julio Jones and return ace Javier
Arenas. If RB Mark Ingram (ineffective last week vs. Auburn) even slightly
compromised by hip pointer suffered in Iron Bowl, QB Greg McElroy might not
have the effective infantry diversion needed to complement his downfield aerial
threat in Jones. And it’s worth noting how the limitations of McElroy and the
Tide attack allowed a trio of foes (Tennessee, LSU & Auburn) to hang close until
the final moments. Granted, Bama “D” plenty tough, but even if all other factors
are equal, the edge Tim Tebow provides for Florida at QB over McElroy is
significant enough to again tilt outcome in Gators’ direction. TV—CBS
(08-Florida 31-Alabama 20...F.19-18 F.42/142 A.33/136 F.14/22/0/216 A.12/25/1/187 F.0 A.0)
(08-Florida -10 31-20 at Atlanta 06-FLORIDA -15 28-13...SR: Alabama 20-14)

*Clemson 28 - Georgia Tech 24—At a time when college football headlines
are filled with reports of coaches who have been fired or will be fired, this
matchup pits two teams that hit major home runs with their recent hires.
Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson is 19-6 straight up in two seasons at the helm of
the Jackets. And the former Navy mentor has continued his winning
pointspread ways, now standing 61-33-1 against the line since mid-2002!
Young Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, who was promoted in the middle of
last season, has the Tigers in position to capture their first conference title in
nearly two decades while drawing the lowest yearly salary (not including
bonuses) in the ACC.This is actually the second meeting of the season between
these two, and,although both teams have evolved over the last couple months,
a quick reviewof Tech’s win at Atlanta in the second week of September is in order.
Althoughthe Jackets vaulted out to a 24-0 lead, Clemson dominated the middle portion
of the game, grabbing their own 27-24 advantage early in the fourth quarter
before Tech managed two FGs of its own (the second with less than a minute
remaining) to salvage a 30-27 home victory. One of the more lasting
impressions from that game was how well the speedy, swarming Tiger defense
controlled the vaunted Tech triple option (305 ypg rushing—second in the
nation) after the Jackets’ early flurry (they scored 3 first-quarter TDs on an 82-
yard run, an 85-yard punt return, and a fake FG). Another was the success the
Tigers’ then-very raw RS frosh QB Kyle Parker (261 YP & 3 TDP) had against
the suspect Tech pass defense, which has allowed 21 TDP vs. only 9
interceptions. The Tiger defense (only 20 ppg & 305 ypg) has enjoyed relatively
good health since that early setback, and Parker (14 TDP, only 5 ints. in last
seven games) is now a much more confident passer. Add in the presence of
scintillating sr. RB/return man C.J. Spiller, who’s arguably the top home-run
threat in the nation, and underdog Clemson appears to have a solid shot at
winning this game outright. CABLE TV—ESPN
(09-GA. TECH 30-Clem. 27...G.15-13 G.49/301 C.36/125 C.15/32/2/261 G.4/15/2/117 G.0 C.0)
(08-Ga. Tech 21-CLEM. 17...12-12 G.52/207 C.24/51 C.19/32/4/198 G.5/12/0/91 G.2 C.2)
(09-TECH -5 30-27 08-Tech -2 21-17 07-TECH +3 13-3 06-CLEM. -7 31-7...SR: Ga. Tech 48-24-2)

*TEXAS 34 - Nebraska 13—Texas & Nebraska met in the very first Big XII
title game in 1996 (UT won 37-27 under the direction of John Mackovic). The
Longhorns are 1-2 in title games since, whuppin’ Colorado 70-3 most recently
in 2005 on their way to the national championship behind Vince Young.
Nebraska is also 2-2 in the title contest, the Huskers’ last appearance being a
21-7 loss to Oklahoma in 2006 under the direction of Bill Callahan.
This year, NU goes in 2-0 as an underdog, covering when A-A DT
Ndamukong Suh and the hard-charging Husker defense did everything but win
in an agonizing 16-15 late loss at Virginia Tech and then collecting five
interceptions in a 10-3 home triumph over Oklahoma. However, it should be
noted that both those underdog covers were achieved vs. relativelyinexperienced
quarterbacks still earning their spurs. In this game, Bo Pelini’s
defense will be challenged by Heisman candidate Colt McCoy, who has won
more games (44) than any QB in NCAA history and is familiar with every nuance
and adjustment in the Longhorn offense, as proved by his 304 YP and 175 YR
last week at A&M. Quick RS frosh RB Tre’ Newton (477 YR) & powerful Cody
Johnson (331 YR, 12 TDR) provide just enough of a run threat to keep
opponents honest while McCoy looks for the right time to hit roommate and best
friend Jordan Shipley (99 recs., 1292 yards, 11 TDs) for big plays.
Nebraska, meanwhile, was looking for more offense in midseason by briefly
switching to true frosh QB Cody Green. And, while NU ranks 11th in total
defense, Texas is fifth overall, first vs. the run, and third in sacks. The Horns
also have 11 STs/defensive TDs. All this does not point to a favorable scenario
for the Cornhuskers’ ball-control offense (only 4.2 ypc; QB Zac Lee 12 TDs vs.
7 ints. TY) should it have to open up. Both schools will have massive support
at Jerry Jones’ new Cowboys’ palace. TV—ABC
(07-TEXAS -20' 28-25 06-Texas -5' 22-20...SR: Texas 9-3)

GOLD SHEET NFL ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES
PITTSBURGH by 24 over Oakland
TENNESSEE by 3 over Indianapolis
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Houston-Jacksonville game

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3

*NY Jets 17 - BUFFALO 10—Rematch of bizarre Oct. 18 matchup, when
the notorious Meadowlands winds messed with Mark Sanchez’ mind and
contributed to 6 interceptions, rendering the Jets’ 318 YR meaningless in Bills’
OT win. Now, Buffalo has a new HC, Perry Fewell, who has made better use of
T.O. (293 receiving yards in last two games) than did predecessor Dick Jauron.
But the Bills’ makeshift OL in tough vs. Rex Ryan’s array of blitzers, and the
Jets’ Thomas Jones (210 YR first meeting) can keep pressure off Sanchez. Is
Mike Shanahan serious about the Buffalo job? TV—NFL NETWORK (at
Toronto)
(09-Buf. 16-NYJ 13 (OT)...B.20-15 N.40/318 B.42/142 B.15/30/1/154 N.10/30/6/96 B.1 N.0)
(08-NY Jets 26-BUF. 17...B.18-16 N.25/96 B.17/30 B.24/35/2/262 N.19/28/1/201 N.0 B.1)
(08-NY JETS 31-Buf. 27...B.23-18 B.32/187 N.24/165 N.17/30/2/207 B.24/39/3/119 N.0 B.1)
(09-Buffalo +9' 16-13 (OT); 08-NY Jets +5' 26-17, NY JETS -7' 31-27...SR: Buffalo 54-44)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6

Denver 20 - KANSAS CITY 11—Arrowhead has been a minefield for
Denver (only 2 covers last 10 visits). But the Broncos have rewritten their script
under Josh McDaniels. And now that Kyle Orton appears beyond his recent
ankle woes (plus extra rest after Thursday’s win), the “Denver formula” of
Orton’s short, ball-control passes complemented by rookie RB Knowshon
Moreno’s runs is clicking once more. Don’t expect K.C. to do much damage vs.
Mike Nolan’s 3-4, especially after vet S Brian Dawkins read the riot act to his
teammates prior to NYG game. Note Broncos “under” 9-2 TY.
(08-K. CITY 33-Den. 19...D.22-17 K.33/213 D.22/94 D.29/49/2/352 K.21/28/0/157 K.1 D.2)
(08-DEN. 24-K. City 17...D.27-14 D.30/139 K.18/83 D.32/40/1/286 K.17/32/0/177 D.0 K.0)
(08-KANSAS CITY +9' 33-19, DENVER -9 24-17...SR: Kansas City 53-45)

PITTSBURGH 27 - Oakland 3—Has Congress’ pressure on NFL
Commissioner Roger Goodell resulted in more-stringent restrictions on players
who suffer concussions (e.g., Ben Roethlisberger)? We think so. But even if
Big Ben sidelined again, the mobile, strong-armed Dennis Dixon was promising
and poised enough in Baltimore to be trusted enough vs. a team like Oakland,
with its frequent breakdowns. Raiders have been held to 10 points or fewer 6
times in 11 games TY. Steeler vets will remember 2006 loss at Oakland.
(06-OAKLAND +9 20-13...SR: Oakland 12-11)

UNDER THE TOTAL Houston 20 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Houston
has invented all kinds of ways to lose in 2009, including a last-minute fumble
when going in for the tying TD in first meeting vs. Jacksonville in Week Three.
But the Texan defense is a meaner platoon than it was in September (allowing
about 150 ypg fewer since), and the Jags’ offense displayed inefficiencies once
more at S.F., when under-siege QB David Garrard was sacked 6 times. “Last
chance saloon” for Matt Schaub & Co. (now 5-6) to stay on periphery of wildcard
chase; note Jags just 2-11 vs. line as host since LY. Houston “under” 6 of
last 8 this season.
(09-Jack. 31-HOU. 24...J.24-23 J.31/184 H.22/111 H.26/35/1/286 J.18/30/0/214 J.1 H.1)
(08-JAC. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0)
(08-HOU. 30-Jack. 17...J.21-18 H.26/126 J.26/126 J.25/35/1/262 H.14/25/1/200 H.0 J.2)
(09-Jack. +4 31-24; 08-JACK. -7 30-27 (OT), HOUSTON -3 30-17...SR: Houston 8-7)

Tennessee 23 - INDIANAPOLIS 20—Indy continues to cut it close,
and the Colts’ can tie the Belichick/Brady Patriots’ record of 21 straight regularseason
wins here. However, Peyton Manning & Co. have been very formful vs.
the line, with their 6-0 spread record on the road TY countered by their
unimpressive mark at Lucas Oil Stadium (1-4 vs. line in ‘09; 4-9 since moving
in a year ago). Tennessee is a different team today than it was when laboring
with Kerry Collins at QB in 31-9 loss vs. Indy at Nashville Oct. 11. Chris
Johnson (1396 YR) liable to break a long run each week, and V.Y. rediscovering
his old Longhorn magic in current 5-game Titan uptick.
(09-Indy 31-TENN. 9...I.23-12 T.21/90 I.23/58 I.36/44/1/309 T.19/35/1/155 I.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. 31-Indy 21...T.23-19 I.22/94 T.31/88 I.26/41/2/223 T.24/37/0/193 T.0 I.0)
(08-INDY 23-Tenn. 0...I.21-8 I.27/121 T.18/83 I.29/37/0/269 T.11/17/0/42 I.0 T.0)
(09-Indy -4 31-9; 08-TENN. -4 31-21, INDY +3 23-0...SR: Indianapolis 17-13)

Philadelphia 27 - ATLANTA 19—Journeyman QB Chris Redman was just
good enough in relief of Matt Ryan to get past the Bucs last week. But even if
“Matty Ice” (toe injury) returns, he will be hard-pressed to stretch Falcon home
win streak to 9 after RB Michael Turner re-aggravated his ankle. Meanwhile,
the Falcon defense has struggled vs. competent attacks, which the Eagles
have. Pitt rookie Shady McCoy (528 YR) filling in nicely for Brian Westbrook,
and rookie WR Jeremy Maclin will help Donovan McNabb function effectively
despite receiver injuries (check DeSean Jackson concussion).
(08-PHIL. 27-Atl. 14...P.24-19 P.32/192 A.24/77 A.23/44/2/258 P.19/34/0/240 P.1 A.1)
(08-PHILADELPHIA -9 27-14...SR: Philadelphia 15-11-1)

CINCINNATI 26 - Detroit 17—Most observers (including backup QB
Daunte Culpepper) felt Lions’ rookie HC Jim Schwartz made a foolish choice by
starting sore-shouldered QB Matthew Stafford on Thanksgiving vs. the
Packers. The inspirational QB should be feeling better by this game, but he
faces a stubborn Bengal defense that held Ben Roethlisberger to one TDP in
two meetings TY. However, Cincy (0-5 as a favorite TY) usually plays to the
level of its competition, with the dog 11-0 in Bengal games TY!
(05-Cincinnati -9 41-17...SR: Cincinnati 6-3)

New Orleans 27 - WASHINGTON 10—First game vs. Washington for New
Orleans’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, once considered the leading
candidate to replace Joe Gibbs upon Gibbs’ retirement in 2008. But Williams
was tagged with having a “confrontational style” and failed in convince owner
Daniel Snyder he was the man for the job despite a reported four meetings, with
Jim Zorn eventually getting the shot. Williams was with Jacksonville LY, but his
Saints have a takeaway-producing defense TY (+10 in TOs, 7 defensive TDs
prior to N.E. game), allowing HC Sean Payton to focus with Drew Brees & Co.
on offense.
(08-WASH. 29-N. Orl. 24...W.25-16 W.31/149 N.19/55 W.24/36/0/306 N.22/33/2/195 W.1 N.1)
(08-WASHINGTON P 29-24...SR: Washington 15-7)

Tampa Bay 19 - CAROLINA 17—In the first meeting TY, the Panthers
pounded out 267 yards on the ground (DeAngelo Williams 152, Jonathan
Stewart 110), but were almost done in by Buccaneer TDs via kickoff return and
interception return. T.B. coach Raheem Morris has now ousted both his
offensive and defensive coordinators since the start of the season. He has only
one win to show for it, but rookie QB Josh Freeman is 3-1 vs. the spread as a
starter. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme has 18 ints. vs. only 8 TDP. Panthers 10-
4 “under” last 14 at home.
(09-Car. 28-T. BAY 21...C.22-12 C.48/267 T.25/124 T.11/17/1/121 C.9/17/2/55 C.1 T.1)
(08-T. BAY 27-Car. 3...T.17-14 T.37/142 C.20/40 C.20/39/3/242 T.15/20/0/173 T.0 C.0)
(08-CAR. 38-T. Bay 23...C.26-21 C.37/299 T.24/86 T.24/38/0/298 C.14/20/2/165 C.0 T.0)
(09-Carolina -3' 28-21; 08-TAMPA BAY -1' 27-3, CAROLINA -3 38-23...SR: Carolina 11-7)

CHICAGO 27 - St. Louis 13—Rams had covered three straight prior to last
week’s 27-17 loss vs. the Seahawks. Both teams have plenty of flaws,
including a Bear defense that was victimized for 537 yards last week vs. the
Vikes, many on clutch throws by Bret Favre. But Kyle Boller is no Favre, and his
receivers are below NFL standard. Jay Cutler (now 20 ints.) and the
embarrassed Chicago defense should have the edge, if focused, vs. lowscoring
Rams (11.8 ppg).
(08-Chicago 27-ST. LOU. 3...C.18-13 C.32/201 S.19/14 S.19/36/4/193 C.18/29/0/133 C.2 S.0)
(08-Chicago -7' 27-3...SR: Chicago 50-35-3)

San Diego 30 - CLEVELAND 13—As S.D. has gradually become healthier
after Week One, the Chargers have played better on the road, winning and
covering their last three excursions. Chargers still don’t run well. But Philip
Rivers (19 TDs, 6 ints.) and the S.D. pass offense is one of the more vibrant in
the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland had only five offensive TDs until its 37-point
explosion in Detroit two weeks ago (then slipped back to uno TD last week in
Cincy, plus losing run-stuffer Shaun Rogers).
(06-SAN DIEGO -12' 32-25...SR: San Diego 13-7-1)

SEATTLE 23 - San Francisco 17—Payback time for (4-7) Seattle, which is
now looking to the future after its flood of early-season injuries. Seahawks 3-2
SU & vs. the spread at home TY, and they got a boost last week from squatty
RB Justin Forsett (130 YR at St. Louis). It is noted that S.F.(only 52 YR last
week) is 4-0-1 vs. the spread on the road TY and is a fine 13-4-2 vs. the spread
its last 19 games under Mike Singletary. Will the 49ers’ low-ranking pass defense
(30th after 10 games) open the door for Matt Hasselbeck & his quality WRs?
(09-S. FRAN. 23-Sea. 10...Se.19-16 Sf.29/256 Se.23/66 Se.25/41/1/217 Sf.19/27/0/123 Sf.0 Se.0)
(08-S. Fra. 33-SE. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(08-Sea. 34-S. FRAN. 13...Sf.21-14 Sf.24/124 Se.28/39 Sf.28/44/1/264 Se.15/25/0/222 Se.0 Sf.1)
(09-S. FRAN. -1 23-10; 08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT), Sea. +5' 34-13...SR: Seattle 11-10)

*ARIZONA 28 - Minnesota 23 [with Kurt Warner at QB for Arizona]
*Minnesota 26 - ARIZONA 20 [With Matt Leinart at QB]—At one time,
Kurt Warner was a reserve QB behind Brett Favre in Green Bay! Now, both are
headed to the Hall of Fame in a few years, and they’re quite capable of putting
on a display in the Cardinals’ desert showground if Warner is cleared to play.
Will give slight edge to host Warner (20 TDs, 11 ints.) over the visitor Favre (24
TDs, 3 ints.), but must prefer Favre over Leinart. Remember, the Vikings’ only
loss TY came Oct. 25 in Pittsburgh when Favre made two costly turnovers late
in the game (the last an 82-yard Steeler int. TD with a minute to play). TV-NBC
(08-Minn. 35-ARIZ. 14...M.20-15 M.44/239 A.7/43 A.32/50/1/273 M.11/17/0/157 M.1 A.1)
(08-Minnesota +3' 35-14...SR: Minnesota 12-9)

Dallas 23 - NY GIANTS 19—Cowboys are not known for their brilliant
Decembers in recent years, going 7-10 SU and 3-13-1 vs. the spread. But
Dallas is a respectable 5-5 SU on the road during that span, and if the Giants
(1-5 SU and no covers last 6 TY) aren’t struggling, you’ve got a scoop (as the
late Howard Cosell would say). Power runner Brandon Jacobs is grinding out
only 3.9 ypc (vs. a productive 5.0 LY), Eli’s sore foot still a problem, and both the
OL and DL lack the familiar insistence of the L2Ys. Meanwhile, Dallas has a
formidable RB troika of Barber, F.Jones & Choice rolling at RB, plus a big-play
guy at WR in Miles Austin (42 recs., 19.6 ypr) to go with clutch TE Jason Witten.
Cowboys avenge Week Two’s late loss.
(09-Giants 33-DAL. 31...D.23-19 D.29/251 N.26/97 N.25/38/0/330 D.13/29/3/127 N.0 D.1)
(08-GIANTS 35-Dal. 14...N.23-11 N.34/200 D.24/81 N.16/27/1/119 D.14/27/3/102 N.2 D.1)
(08-DAL. 20-Giants 8...17-17 D.21/100 N.17/72 D.20/30/0/221 N.18/35/2/146 D.0 N.0)
(09-Giants +2' 33-31; 08-GIANTS -8' 35-14, DALLAS -3 20-8...SR: Dallas 55-38-2)

New England 32 - MIAMI 22—The visitor has covered last five in the
series, and N.E. would appear to have a good chance to extend the trend now
that Bill Belichick’s defenders are familiar with Miami’s Wildcat sets (Dolphins
133 YR in first meeting TY), now missing N.E. nemesis Ronnie Brown. Strongarmed
QB Chad Henne now has eight starts, but he’s showing his youth with 7
TDs vs. 7 interceptions. The potent Pats 4-2 vs. spread last 6 visits. Dolphins
5-0 “over” at home TY and still struggling vs. the pass.
(09-N. ENG. 27-Miami 17...N.22-21 M.31/133 N.24/109 N.25/37/1/323 M.20/37/0/201 N.0 M.0)
(08-Miami 38-N. ENG. 13...M.23-13 M.36/216 N.18/67 M.18/21/0/245 N.22/35/1/137 M.0 N.1)
(08-N. Eng. 48-MIAMI 28...N.30-23 N.25/122 M.19/62 N.30/43/1/408 M.24/41/1/330 N.1 M.0)
(09-N. ENG. -10' 27-17; 08-Miami +12' 38-13, N. Eng. +1 48-28...SR: Miami 49-39)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 7

*GREEN BAY 30 - Baltimore 20—Green Bay is now 3-0 SU (2-1 vs. the
spread) since its players-only meeting following their ugly come-from-ahead
loss at Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, the Packers have since lost stalwart
defenders CB Al Harris & OLB Aaron Kampman for the season. Still, their new
3-4 has helped G.B. to a +17 turnover margin. Raven QB Joe Flacco (1 TDP,
3 ints. last four games) has lost just a bit of LY’s magic. Plus, the Baltimore
defense is missing more tackles TY and has been more vulnerable at CB
(rookie Ladarius Webb starting). CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-BALTIMORE -3' 48-3...SR: Green Bay 2-1)

GOLD SHEET

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

UCONN
One of the pointspread revelations of this season has been
UConn, which has a chance to complete one of the best
campaigns in history vs. the line when playing host to South Florida
at Rentschler Field Saturday afternoon. The Huskies have covered
9 of 10 chances on the board this season (and 10 of 11 dating to the
end of the ‘08 campaign) and are now 19-8 vs. the number their last
27 at East Hartford. Moreover, UConn has posted a +10.75 “AFS”
(Away From Spread) mark its last two games. This has also been
a home-oriented series vs. the Bulls, with the host covering the last
4 meetings, and USF hasn’t posted a cover in its last 3 games (0-2-
1 vs. line).

LOUISIANA TECH
It’s our last chance to go against San Jose State this season, and
darned if we’re going to pass it up. The Spartans have been
plumbing some almost uncharted pointspread depths lately,
dropping their last 8 vs. the number and 14 of their last 15 since a
year ago. Which are reasons enough to go with La Tech in this
week’s regular-season finale at Ruston. Note that the Bulldogs
have covered 10 of their last 13 on the board at Joe Aillet Stadium.

WASHINGTON
The Cal Bears have not provided much pointspread value lately
in a few key roles that work against them in Saturday’s Pac-10
finale at Seattle against host Washington. Note that the Bears are
just 2-7 vs. the number their last 9 as Pac-10 chalk, and only 4-8 vs.
the line their last 12 on the conference road. As for the improved
Huskies, they’ve covered 3 of 4 as a home dog this season.

TENNESSEE
The Indianapolis Colts have been a formful pointspread team this
season, dynamite vs. the number on the road (where they’re 6-0
vs. the spread), but underachieving at Lucas Oil Stadium, where
they’ve covered just 1 of 5 (and a mere 4 of 13 since last season).
That “dog in Colt games” trend supports the case for visiting
Tennessee in Sunday’s AFC South battle. And the Titans have been
hot, winning and covering five straight entering Sunday’s clash.

MINN.-ARIZONA “OVER”
“Totals” trends indicate to look “over” when Minnesota invades
the desert to face Arizona in a Sunday night NFC showdown. The
Vikings have gone “over” 10 of their last1 4 on road, while the cards
are “over” 13-4 their last 17 at Glendale.

POWER SWEEP

3* RUTGERS over W Virginia The Knights will look for their 1st win over West Virginia since ‘94 (0-14) and to leapfrog the Mountaineers for a better bowl. Last week Rutgers looked like the team we expected and rebounded from their Syr loss with a 34-14 win over Louisville. A pair of frosh led the way as Wildcat QB Sanu rushed for 148 yds (8.2) with 2 TD’s and QB Savage threw a TD and ran for another. Savage is avg 176 ypg (55%) with an 11-4 ratio and the Knights avg 151 rush (4.1) ypg at home. The defense is 4th NCAA forcing 29 TO’s and 4th in tfl avg 8.3 pg. WV is off a huge win over #8 Pitt 19-16 in the 102nd meeting of the Backyard Brawl. Devine showed no ill effects of an ankle injury that limited him to 62 ypg L/3 and rushed for 134 yds (7.9) with an 88 yd TD. QB Brown is avg 183 ypg (65%) with a 12-8 ratio. Rutgers is playing the favorite in this series for the 1st time and is 4-1 ATS as a conf HF. WV has the edge on off (#49-76) and def (#26-37) and has played the tougher sked (#54-115). The Knights are 9-3 ATS in home finales incl 4 straight wins with an avg score of 41-12. Rutgers defense matches up well versus the WV offense as the Knights have one of the quickest defenses in the conference and LY held the Mountaineers to 3.5 ypc and held Devine to 55 yds (2.9). FORECAST: RUTGERS 23 W Virginia 16

3* † Clemson over Georgia Tech - ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Raymond James Stadium, “The Road to Tampa Bay.” This is Clemson’s 1st trip to the ACC Title game the Tigers haven’t won the ACC S/’91. GT won the Coastal Div and went to the title game in 2006 (lost to WF 9-6). Both HC are in just their 2nd season and both have been rewarded for their efforts. Swinney will receive a $1 million bonus and Johnson received an extra year on his contract (also extended LY from $11 million to $17.7 over seven yrs). They have faced 4 common opp’s TY (MIA, WF, FSU, UVA) and CU went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS while GT went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The dog is 17-4 ATS in this series and the Tigers are 13-8 as a conf AD (2-0 TY). Both teams are coming off their instate rival gms vs SEC teams with 5 losses in which both teams may have been looking ahead as GT fell to UGA 30-24 and CU lost to SC 34-17 giving us a 3H LPS Winner. These 2 met earlier in the regular season on a Thursday Night and GT squeaked by CU 30-27 (+5). The score was somewhat misleading as each team attempted a “fake FG” which resulted in 14 GT pts. After the gm HC Johnson said of both CU’s DT could play in the NFL. That game was just CU QB Parker’s 2nd career start but he has avg 239 ypg pass with a 12-3 ratio the L/5 IA gms. LW vs SC, RB CJ Spiller set an NCAA record w/his 7th career KR TD and 5th in NCAA history 7,000+ all-purp yds. On the season, the Heisman candidate is #4 in the NCAA avg 184 all-purp ypg. WR Jacory Ford has 50 rec (14.0). CU has all’d 19 sks with an OL that avg 6’5” 308 lbs. GT leads the ACC in scoring (35.0) and total offense (440.5). While GT has the offensive edge (#7-34), Clemson has the defensive (#13-42) and ST’s edges (#12-77). QB Nesbitt left the gm LW (1Q) with a sprained ankle although he did return but was limited rushing for just 33 yds (135 pass). On the season he is avg 129 ypg pass (47%) with a 9-4 ratio and has rushed for 888 yds. RB Dwyer is #3 in the ACC with 1,236 rush yds (6.3). WR Thomas has 44 rec (24.5!). GT has all’d just 9 sks and the OL avg 6’3” 271 lbs. Prior to their in-state rivalry gms, these 2 were on a 12-2 ATS streak. CU is looking to avenge their regular season loss to GT and finally win an ACC title that many have been calling for the last few years. FORECAST: Clemson 31 Georgia Tech 24

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Arizona (+) over USC - Midway thru the ssn this appeared to be a gm that could decided the conf title but losses by both programs have made this matchup one for a berth in a mid-level bowl. USC had struggled defensively prior to last week giving up a combined 102 pts (1,082 yds) in games prior vs Oregon and Stanford and have actually been outscored and outgained in conf play TY (1st time under Carroll). Despite a lackluster offensive performance LW vs UCLA, the Trojan D returned to form holding the Bruins to 180 ttl yds and 0 pts in the 1st 3Q (28-7 win). After failing to catch some breaks vs UW, Cal and UO, the Cats caught a break of their own LW vs ASU getting a late TO and a FG on the last play (led 14-0 at HT). It was a night game LY in Tucson and while USC had a 367-188 yd edge, they only won 17-10 (-15). AZ has covered their L/2 trips here by DD’s both times as big dogs. In the Wildcats last trip to LA (+21), Mark Sanchez, making his 1st career home start, led USC back from a 3 pt, 4Q deficit pulling out the 20-13 victory. The last time USC closed their P10 season vs a team other than UCLA, they beat Oregon St 52-28 (-21’) in 2003. The Wildcats could easily be unbeaten in conf play TY if it wasn’t for the previously mentioned bad breaks, which should keep this one close at the Coliseum once again. FORECAST: Arizona (+) 23 USC 26

2* LOUISIANA TECH over San Jose St - LT has won B2B gms and 3 of 4. However, SJSt has covered in 4 of 5 and the Spartans are 6-2 ATS vs the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS at home while the Spartans are 0-6-1 ATS on the road. What’s more, LT is 4-3 ATS as a HF under Dooley (3-0 TY) and the Bulldogs have covered in their L/4 gms while SJSt is 8-17-1 ATS as an AD under Tomey (0-4-1 TY) and are on an 0-6-1 ATS drought. SJSt claimed its first win of the season vs a IA LW kicking a FG with :34 left vs NMSt to snap a 6 gm losing streak. The Spartans’ off has sputtered all season long (#116 in the NCAA avg 280 ypg) and has struggled both running the ball and stopping the run. SJSt is #115 in the NCAA in rush off (81 ypg, 2.8) and #119 in rush def (261 ypg, 6.2) all’g 180 ypg more to its foes. On the flip side, LT features a balanced off avg 189 ypg passing and 179 ypg rushing but the Bulldogs’ preference is running the ball. RB Porter is closing in on a B2B 1,000 yd season with 933 yds (5.1) and should achieve that mark here against a porous SJSt rush D. In its last outing, LT narrowly missed its first road win of the year after falling 30-28 on a last-second FG to Fresno. However, not to be overshadowed in the loss was career performances by QB Jenkins (76 ypg, 59%, 16-5 ratio) and TE Morris (36 rec, 16.1, 11 TD’s) as Jenkins passed for 206 yds and a career-high 4 TD’s while Morris had career highs with 7 rec for 131 yds and 3 TD’s. LT is fresh off a bye and this is its season/home finale. This is also SJSt’s season finale and will be Tomey’s last game as the Spartans’ HC as he will retire after 46 years in the coaching profession (29 as a HC, the L/5 with SJSt). The Bulldogs are a much better team at home as all of their wins TY have come there, while the Spartans are winless on the road, so look for both trends to continue here. FORECAST: LOUISIANA TECH 34 San Jose St 6

Thursday, Dec 3rd

OREGON 34 Oregon St 30 - For the 1st time in 8 yrs someone besides USC will be taking home the Pac-10 Championship. It’s deja vu for OSU as they enter this rivalry once again attempting to reach the Rose Bowl. Their hopes were dashed LY in the 65-38 defeat (-3) to the Ducks in Corvallis (tms combined for 1,157 yds). OSU is 14-7 ATS in the series and will have the services of their top offensive threat TY in RB Quizz Rodgers (159 ttl ypg, 20 TD) who missed the ‘08 Civil War. OSU also has renewed confidence in their pass game in ‘09 led by QB Canfield who has passed for 254 ypg (70%) with a 19-6 ratio. In fact, OSU has covered all 3 of their conf gms as an AD (by 16, 14.5 and 24 pts) incl 2 SU upsets on the year. The Ducks have had “Lady Luck” on their side virtually the entire ssn and benefitted from her again vs AZ in Tucson a few wks ago coming back from a 10 pt 4Q deficit and prevailing in 2OT. While QB Masoli (211 ttl ypg, 26 ttl TD) deserves much of the credit for running the Ducks spread offense, the key has been the emergence of rFr RB James who broke the conf record with 1,310 rush yds (6.9) as a freshman. The home team had won 10 in a row SU in the series prior to the L/2 seasons. UO is 3-6 ATS in home finales and OSU is outgaining road foes by 117 ypg, so we’ll take the points here as OSU (6-1 ATS run) should keep this one close.

Arkansas St 28 W KENTUCKY 27 - This is WKU HC Dave Elson’s last game (fired Nov 9) before former WKU great QB and Hall-of-Famer Willie Taggart (Stanford RB coach) takes over. ASU’s Roberts may also be on the hot seat as it’s been just a 3-win (1 win vs IAA) season for the RedWolves. RFr QB Ryan Aplin is the clear starter with Senior Leonard (right knee ACL) out for the ssn. In SBC games, ASU ranks last in scoring (20.5 ppg) and WKU gives up the most points at 41.0 ppg. Reggie Arnold needs just 62 rush yds to become ASU’s career leader. WKU offers a strong 1-2 punch with rFr QB Jakes who 148 avg (58%) with a 7-5 ratio and Soph RB Rainey with 657 total yds (7.3), providing great young talent that the Toppers can build on. When WKU announced that Elson would not be returning he publicly stated he was “shocked” and his players made similar comments. Since that time the Hilltoppers have covered 3 straight and have been outgained by only 57 ypg despite being underdogs of 24, 21 and 14 pts. Expect an inspired effort in not only Elson’s final game but their only home game since his release.

Friday, Dec 4th

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

† Central Michigan vs Ohio - Ford Field. Rematch of the ‘06 MAC Championship, when CM (-3) won 31-10 in CM QB’s LeFevour first ssn. Now in his 4th yr he needs just 2 TD passes to break the MAC’s career rec (100) held by Marshall’s Chad Pennington. These teams have met just once since, in ‘08 when CM won 31-28 but failed to cover as a 3’ pt AF. This will be the 6th time in the L/4 yrs that CM has played at Ford Field, while Ohio has not played here since that ‘06 Champ gm. CM completed their first undefeated MAC reg ssn with a 45-31 (-13) win over NI with a 512-332 yd edge. Ohio had beaten NI the prior week 38-31 but were outgained 421-247. Ohio handed Temple their first MAC loss of the ssn 35-17 (+3), with a 494-378 yd edge, the most yds Temple had given up all year. These teams have faced 5 common opp with both going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. However, CM won by an avg 18.8 ppg and outgained them by an avg 162 ypg while Ohio only won by an avg of 6.4 ppg and were outgained by an avg of 54 ypg. Ohio lost 6 players to inj vs Temple incl QB Scott, who is avg 177 ypg (59%) with a 19-10 ratio with 109 yds rushing (1.8) and #2 WR Brazill, who has 49 rec (13.7). Ohio’s top receiver is WR Price with 51 rec (14.4) and their top rusher is RB Garrett with 549 (4.3). CM is led by QB LeFevour with 2,788 yds (71%) with a 25-5 ratio and also leads with 650 rush (4.1,14 TD). Their top 2 receivers are WR Brown with 89 rec (10.7) and WR Anderson with 50 rec (12.9), who broke the NCAA record for consecutive gms with a rec LW with 52. RB Schroeder is the #2 rusher with 414 (5.8). CM has the off (#36-100) and def (#55-70) edges but Ohio has the ST edge (#9-65) with 5 to 2 edge in ret TD’s.

Saturday, Dec 5th

ILLINOIS 31 Fresno St 30 - 1st meeting. FSU is 5-1 ATS on the road TY with covers in a 2 OT loss at Wisky (FSU 24-19 FD and 468-413 yd edges) and at #5 Cincy (FSU 25-15 FD and 443-357 yd edges). Fresno is off a bye but find themselves playing a cold weather gm in front of a rumored half capacity crowd with a 9:30 am PT start. FSU actually had its EOY banquet LW to honor the NCAA’s leading rusher and team MVP RB Mathews (1491, 7.0). Mathews (DNP vs LT - concussion) should return and this may be his final reg ssn game as he is expected to leave for the NFL. Fresno’s D is allowing 201 rush ypg (6.1) including 284 (6.7) in the last 5. IL won a 3H LPS in their 49-36 loss to Cincy (+21) in which they outFD’d 24-17 and outgained 476-420 the Bearcats but costly penalties and poor ST coverage including a 90 yd KR TD cost them a chance to keep it closer. IL allowed QB Pike to throw for Zook-era high 399 yd and 6 TD as co-DC Disch said their debatable strategy was to make the NCAA’s most eff pass offense pass and UC had just 2 rush att at the half. IL QB Williams (ankle) returned after missing NW and had his best gm TY hitting 21-34 for 282 with 3 TD and 67 rush yd despite a depleted RB corps. IL is allowing 160 rush ypg (4.2). Despite the records, IL has edges on off (#46-50) and D (#66-85), although FSU has an enormous ST edge (#18-109). Both cch’s are on the hot seat but only Zook has gotten a promise from the AD that he will return in 2010 and the Illini send the Seniors out on an up note in a down season.

BOISE ST 55 New Mexico St 0 - Boise is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS and has won the L/2 by a combined margin of 107-0 while outgaining the Aggies 1,099-239 in those two contests! The Aggies are coming off a tough 13-10 loss to SJSt LW on a last-second FG. NMSt has been shutout in the 1H of 5 gms TY and the Aggies’ off has simply been stuck in neutral all season long. NMSt is #120 in ttl off (233 ypg) and scoring off (11.8 ppg) and its QB’s are avg just 91 ypg combined with a 6-17 ratio as the Aggies are #117 in the NCAA in pass off. QB Fleming is avg 63 ypg (51%) with a 4-12 ratio and his mobility (248 yds rushing) has given him the edge over Walls (38 ypg, 51%, 2-5 ratio) but neither one has been effective. RB Smith has 902 yds (4.3) and has been the off’s lone bright spot but he has been worn down throughout the season with D’s keying in on him trying to move a stagnant offense. Boise is at or near the top in nearly every off and def category in the WAC. The Broncos are #9 in the NCAA in ttl off (454 ypg) and lead the WAC in scoring off (44.3 ppg) led by the nation’s most efficient QB (168.7) Moore who is avg 254 ypg (65%) with a 38-3 ratio. Moore has thrown at least 3 TD passes in 7 of his L/8 gms and LW tied a career-high with 5 TD passes in a win over Nevada. On the other side of the ball, BSU is #1 in the WAC in scoring def (18.6 ppg), ttl D (309 ypg) and pass D (183 ypg). Boise is 6-0 SU/ATS in home finales winning by an avg of 44 ppg (58-14) while scoring no less than 49 pts in any contest. Frankly, this is a contest where BSU could name the score. On paper this is as big of a mismatch as there is in the WAC and the Aggies are simply at the Broncos mercy in this one. Boise will claim its 7th WAC title in 8 years here and will remain perfect and keep its BCS hopes alive.

California 34 WASHINGTON 21 - Cal earned back some conf respect with their upset of Stanford knocking off their 2nd consec Top 25 tm in as many weeks (beat AZ in Berkeley). Cal had actually lost 19 straight to UW prior to the arrival of HC Tedford but is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS since (won by 30+ pts on 4 occasions in that span). Bears’ RB Best rushed for a school-record 311 yds (4 TD’s) in Cal’s 48-7 thrashing of the Huskies LY, but it is unlikely he’ll be available here as he is still recovering from his devastating fall in the OSU game a month ago (1080 ttl yds, 16 ttl TD TY). In Best’s absence, bkup RB Vereen has answered the call, rushing for 352 yds (4.9) in the 2 gms since the injury. The Huskies delivered their 1st shutout of WSU in 45 yrs holding the Cougs to just 163 yds and failing to allow WSU past their 33 yd line the entire game. Despite being w/o QB Locker (232 pass ypg, 57%, 18-11 ratio) in their last home meeting with the Bears in ‘07, Cal was upset 37-23 (+7) as the Huskies rushed for 334 yds (6.0) in the win. Cal is fresh off a late season bye and catch UW off their Apple Cup game (UW is 0-3 SU losing by a 49-9 margin in reg season game after WSU) which should continue Cal’s charge up the P10 standings in their regular season finale.

PITTSBURGH 31 Cincinnati 27 - Big East Championship and the winner earns a BCS berth. This is also played for “River City Rivalry” Trophy and just recently can be mentioned in the same sentence as their NFL counterparts. Cincy snapped Pitt’s 7 gm (7-1) win streak LY 28-21, as for the first time both teams were ranked. Pitt upset #23 Cincy in the last trip here in ‘07, 24-17 (+9’). UC remains undefeated as QB Pike made his 1st start since injury and threw school record 6 TD’s in their 49-36 win over Illinois. UC’s offense can score with anyone avg 478 ypg (#3 NCAA) and 38 ppg (#6) but is more balanced with Collaros at QB as the Cats rushed only 4 times in the 1st 3Q LW. WR Gilyard has 68 rec (13.7) and also 2 KR TD’s and is #6 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The defense is all’g 133 rush ypg (3.5) and have all’d 443 ypg the L/3. Last week Pitt may have been looking ahead, and underestimated rival WV losing 19-16 on a 43 yd FG with no time left. QB Stull, who came into the game #6 in pass efficiency threw 2 int and Pitt missed 2 FG’s in the defensive struggle. RB Lewis broke the BE frosh rush record (155, 6.0 LW) and is avg 131 ypg (5.8) with 13 TD’s. Pitt has the defensive edge (#24-52) and leads the nation with 43 sks. With UC having to deal with all the BCS attention and distractions concerning HC Kelly’s job status, the situation favors Pitt here as they are 7-3 ATS at home and 4-1 in this series.

Wisconsin 34 HAWAII 23 - The Warriors are 7-14 SU vs B10 tms (won 3 of L/4) incl 1-4 vs UW. Wisky has made this ssn ending trip 3x S/‘96 winning all 3 by an avg of 45-17 (2-1 ATS). Last trip in ‘05 was a 41-24 win in Alvarez’s final reg ssn gm as the Badgers only agreed to play it if they brought B10 officials. The dog is 10-2 ATS in Hawaii home finales. UW had 1 previous bye TY and annihilated Purdue 37-0 with 20-8 FD and 381-141 yd edges. B10 Off POY RB Clay has 1224 yd (5.1) despite missing the 2H of 2 gms (Iowa and Indy) due to inj’s. UW’s OL outweighs the Hawaii DL 307-273. Wisky is #75 in pass eff D (222, 57%, 19-13) and the secondary has struggled the L/3 allowing 294 ypg (68%) with an 8-3 ratio, including 364 yd and 3 TD in the loss to NW. The Badgers can put pressure on the QB with 1st Tm All-B10 DE Schofield (8 sk, 12.5 tfl). UH kept their bowl hopes alive by winning their 4th straight upsetting Navy 24-17 as they outFD’d (21-16) and outgained (428-336) the Midshipmen and trailed for just :51. QB Moniz (DNP vs SJSt - ribs) returned to hit 32-44 for 366 with 3 TD. WR Salas (103, 15.1) is #2 NCAA rec ypg. The Warriors are #104 NCAA rush D allowing 194 ypg (4.8) but did hold Navy 40 yds under their ssn avg. The Warriors are playing for a Christmas Eve home date with ex-HC June Jones while Wisky’s playing for a NY’s Day bowl.

Florida Atl 34 FIU 31 - This is the first game in this series at FIU’s new on-campus stadium after playing at Dolphins Stadium. FAU is 6-1 SU in the “Shula Bowl” but just 2-3 ATS. FIU, meanwhile, has played much better defensively vs SBC teams below the top tier of Troy-MT-ULM. The Panthers are allowing just 23 ppg and 426 ypg vs the low end of the league, more than decent numbers for a team that has played 16 true freshmen TY. FAU joins the list of SBC teams that has fallen short of its goal in ‘09. After B2B bowl wins the Owls are playing for just their fifth win in an earlier than anticipated season ending game. At QB, Van Camp has stepped in for an inj’d Smith the L/4 games and RB Morris is #2 in SBC rushing with 919 total yards (5.5). FIU QB McCall is 227 (58%) with a 9-5 ratio in SBC games and stellar WR TY Hilton is back at full strength. FIU has found a way to battle back with a 4Q rally to beat NT and a late rally to tie and then win in OT vs ULL. In a sideline match up it’s the veteran Howard Schnellenberger against an up-and-coming Mario Cristobal. LY’s game went to OT and this year’s game will be just as close with the winner having South Florida bragging rights for the year.

CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Houston 37 EAST CAROLINA 34 - Winner heads to the Liberty Bowl. EC leads the series 5-4 SU/ATS. LY, Houston pulled the outright upset here 41-24 (+10’) and the Cougars are 3-1 SU/ATS all-time in Greenville and the visitor is on a 4-1 ATS run in the series. Houston is making their 1st trip to the title game since 2006, while EC won the CUSA Title last year, 27-24 (+11’) at Tulsa. These two have faced 6 common opps this year (SMU, SM, Tulsa, UCF, Memphis, Rice) and EC was 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS), outscoring them by 14 ppg. UH was 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) outscoring them by 21 ppg. EC is 2-2-1 ATS at home this year and comes in on a roll, winning 5 of 6 (4-1-1 ATS) with the only loss to VT. They clinched their spot in the title game with a 25-20 home win (-6) over SMiss LW. The Pirates moved the ball to the tune of 441 yds, but settled for 3 FG’s which kept the game close. They are avg 448 ypg the L/5 conf gms. They are #60 in our pass def rankings all’g 240 ypg (60%) with an 18-14 ratio. The defense will be tested by the NCAA’s #1 offense. The Cougars are avg 583 ypg, with 444 ypg coming through the air and QB Keenum has completed 71% of his passes on the year, with a 38-6 ratio. Houston destroyed Rice 73-14 LW to earn a trip to Greenville. UH led 59-0 at the half and rested their starters after the break. The 73 pts were an FBS high for the season. UH does have our #107 ranked D all’g 445 ypg. The Cougs are 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) on the road TY, with wins at OkSt and Miss St, so they won’t be intimidated by the hostile crowd, so we expect them to punch their ticket to Memphis.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

† Florida 23 Alabama 16 - Georgia Dome. For the 2nd straight year, undefeated #1 UF faces undefeated #2 Bama for the SEC Title and a trip to the BCS Champ gm. These 2 tms have met 6 times in the SEC Champ with UF holding a 4-2 advantage (3-2-1 ATS). UF is 1-5-2 ATS vs Bama (4-4 SU). LY Bama played better than we expected leading 20-17 after 3Q’s but UF came back with two 4Q TD’s for a 31-20 win (-10). Tide WR Jones had 5 rec for 124 yds in the game and Tebow hit 14 of 22 for 216 yds with 3 TD’s and had 57 rush yds. UA ranks #19 in our off rankings led by QB McElroy who is avg 184 ypg (61%) with a 16-4 ratio. Despite LW’s injury RB Ingram is a legitimate Heisman candidate with 1429 rush (6.5), which leads the SEC. After being slowed by inj’s early in the ssn, WR Jones has come on strong with 27 rec in the L/5 gms. UF QB Tebow has led his tm to a school record 22 consec wins, but his numbers are down TY due to inj’s and inconsistencies at WR and RB which has led to a more conservative approach. Tebow is avg 181 pass ypg (66%) with a 17-4 ratio and is the tm’s top rusher with 796 (4.1). These 2 tms also rank #1 (UF) and #2 (UA) in our def rankings. Bama is only allowing 77 rush ypg (2.6) while UF allows 90 ypg (2.9). UA is #2 in our pass D rankings and UF is #3. UF has the edge on spec tms (#11-35) but Bama’s K Tiffin is one of 3 finalists for the Groza (27-31 FG). LW UA drove 79 yds in 13pl using up 7:03 to score the gm winning TD with 1:24 left and held on for a come-from-behind win over rival Aub in which they were outgained 332-291 and banged up RB Ingram was held to 30 (1.9). UF is off an emotional 37-10 win over rival FSU in Tebow’s last gm in the Swamp. Florida is 10-2 ATS away from the Swamp. LY both tms had exp QB’s and TY Tebow definitely has the edge over McElroy and with most of the other categories close, we’ll side with Tebow and Co to capture their 3rd SEC Title in the L/4Y.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

† Texas 27 Nebraska 10 - Cowboy Stadium in Arlington, TX. This will be the 3rd B12 Title matchup between UT and NU. They met in the inaugural title gm in ‘96 with UT (+20’) pulling the outright upset 37-27. NU (-8) won 22-6 in ‘99. Both schools are 2-2 SU/ATS making their 5th appearance (UT is 1-1 as a favorite and NU is 0-1 as a dog). The last time UT played in the B12 Title gm they trashed CU 70-3 (-26’) w/a 486-191 yd edge on their way to a National Title in ‘05 and in ‘06 NU lost to OU 21-7 (+3’) with a 366-307 yd edge but was -4 in TO. This will be just the 13th meeting as Texas is 8-4 SU and has lost just once S/’74 but NU has covered 4 of the L/5. Both tms have had 6 common opp’s TY (Mizzou, TT, BU, OU, KU and CU) and UT was 6-0 SU and 3-2-1 ATS outscoring them by 23 ppg and outgaining them by 116 ypg. NU was 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS outscoring foes by just 5 ppg and actually were outgained by 33 ppg. Texas was clearly looking ahead LW as they gave up a ssn high 532 yds and 39 pts to rival A&M. QB McCoy (479 ttl yds LW) is avg 277 ypg (72%) with a 27-9 ratio and is #2 on the tm is rushing (368 yds, 3.3). WR Shipley has 99 rec (13.1). UT has allowed 21 sks (4.5%) and is avg 164 rush ypg (4.4). They are ranked #6 in our pass eff def allowing 201 ypg (57%) with a 14-21 ratio. NU was outgained by 186 yds LW vs CU, also caught looking ahead but survived. QB Lee is avg 176 ypg (61%) with a 13-7 ratio. RB Helu has 1,111 yds (5.4) but True Fr Burkhead (PS#39) had 100 yds LW (5.6) and is finally 100% giving NU a solid 1-2 punch. NU has allowed 18 sks (5.6%) and is avg 147 rush ypg (4.1). They are ranked #1 in our pass eff def allowing 190 ypg (48%) with a 7-16 ratio. Both def are in the among tops in the nation (UT #5 NCAA allowing 263 ypg, NU #11 NCAA, 291) but the Horns have a big off edge (#2-58, 452 to 335 ypg). NU has surrendered more than 20 pts just once TY and UT has scored 34+ in every gm but one. Obviously an all out effort by both, but UT has a National Title game on the horizon and will try to come away unscathed.

POWER SWEEP

4* Minnesota over ARIZONA - This promises to be a different game than LY when MIN caught ARZ celebrating their 1st Div Title in 33 years & beat them 35-14 as a 3 pt AD. ARZ fell prey to Vince Young’s magic allowing a 99 yd TD drive & a 10 yd TD pass on the final play. The Favre Express continues as MIN dominated crushing CHI & finishing with a 537-169 yd edge. In their L3 games they’ve outgained their foes by 261 ypg. Favre’s numbers are astounding as he has now thrown for 261 ypg (69%) but an even more impressive 24-3 ratio & to put that in perspective he’s thrown 3 int’s in a SINGLE GAME 38 times. While the teams are similar this season in wanting to run to set up the pass and play physical defense, the Vikings just do it better. The difference is on the DL where MIN DE Jared Allen (12.5 sacks) is controlling games & at the top of the list for Def MVP. The Vikings have 39 sacks TY & have had multiple sacks in every game but one & have had 3 or more in 5 of 6 weeks. In the 2 games this year that ARZ has allowed over 2 sacks they lost & failed to cover by 10 pts home vs SF & lost & failed to cover by 24 pts vs Indy at home. We’ll continue to ride MIN as they’ve already given us five H rated winners on this page. FORECAST: Minnesota 38 ARIZONA 20

3* CHICAGO over St Louis - Why play on a team that’s on a 1-7 SU & ATS slide? Why play on a team that gave up 537 yds LW, its most since 1982 Because the Bears have played a schedule loaded with winning teams. They’ve played only 3 teams with losing records & vs SEA, DET & CLE they gone 3-0 SU & ATS covering by 10 ppg. STL makes their first road trip in a month & has struggled avg just 259 ypg & 9 pts away. QB Boller threw for 282 (61%) in his first start replacing Bulger (STL minus 5 off starters LW) but he did throw 2 int’s including a pick six. In Boller’s only road start in the L2Y he threw for 108 yds (54%, 0-1 ratio) & was sacked 5 times in a shutout loss at SF. He will be a sight for sore eyes for a Bears defense that was embarrassed LW but has had 3 excellent games allowing 253 yds to ATL, 191 yds to CLE & 216 yds at SF. No one is feeling the heat in CHI more than QB Cutler who in his L3 games has a 2-8 ratio. Expect Cutler to expose a Rams secondary that has the league’s #22 pass defense (15-8 ratio) & CHI gets to take out a month of frustrations out on STL.FORECAST: CHICAGO 30 St Louis 13

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* San Diego over CLEVELAND - The Browns fell back to earth vs CIN after scoring 30 pts for the 1st time in 18 games vs DET. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as they were outgained 306-169 & outrushed 210 (4.7) to 58 (3.2). Quinn only had 100 yds (44%) but he did lead a 55/8pl drive with the no huddle & didn’t turn the ball over. The Browns did lose 4 defensive starters during the game & their best defender in Shaun Rogers for the year. CLE has held been to under 200 or less yds in 7 of their L8 games (179 ypg in those) while being outscored 23-6. They are 2-7 ATS at home having been outgained by 114 ypg TY (30th). SD has a 347-284 yd avg in their 6 game win streak with a 31-14 avg score. The defense is only allowing 185 ypg passing (60%) with a 6-7 ratio & have 20 of their 27 sacks during the span. Look for Rivers (237 ypg 70% 12-3) to exploit the #23 pass defense (16-6 ratio) that will be without at least 4 starters from just 4 weeks ago.FORECAST: San Diego 33 CLEVELAND 10

2* Philadelphia over ATLANTA - PHI beat ATL 27-14 as a 9 pt HF LY with a 432-335 yd edge as both teams came out of their byes. ATL had 6 punts, 2 int & 1 TD on their 1st 9 drives & allowed PHI to rush for 192 yds (6.0). ATL got both RB’s Turner & Norwood back LW (combined 55 yds 3.1), but Ryan was KO’d from the game with a toe injury & Turner re-injured his ankle. Chris Redman stepped in (no snaps in 26 games) & did well with 243 yds (56%) with 2 TD’s incl one that won the game with :23 left. Reid acknowledged that he put PHI in a bad spot by opening the game with an onside kick that WAS turned into 7 pts & gave them momentum for most of the game. McNabb did lead the team to 10 pts in the final 7:30 of the 4Q for the win. On the downside PHI will likely be without WR Jackson (44 rec, 17.5) which is a big blow as the Eagles live by his big play ability (8 of 25+ TY). If Ryan plays he’ll be limited in the pocket by his foot & PHI will send many exotic blitzes vs him which will be compounded by the probability that LT Baker (disloc elbow) will miss. If Redman starts there is an axiom that backups do better off the bench as they don’t have information overload that a full week of prep gives & PHI will still send the pressure. Reid is very good at rebounding off a bad game of coaching with a sound gameplan & McNabb should fare well vs the #26 pass def that allowed 250 yds (69%) 2-0 to a rookie QB in his 4th start. FORECAST: Philadelphia 31 ATLANTA 17

OTHER GAMES

NY Jets 20 Buffalo 17 - Thursday - For the 2nd year in a row Toronto will play host to a struggling Bills team that won’t have a needed homefield edge vs a div foe here. The Bills upset the Jets 16-13 as a 9.5 pt AD in OT thanks to 5 ints by Sanchez but they only converted them into 13 pts. The Jets wasted a 414-296 yd edge with 318 yds (8.0) earned on the ground. The Bills have been blasted by inj’s TY (15 players on IR) esp on the OL where Ctr Hangartner is the only starter in his opening day spot. This has helped the Bills get outrushed 146 (4.3) vs 84 (3.7) over the L5W & they have been held to 17 pts or less in 7 of their L9 games. The Jets have a sizeable edge with their #2 defense here & their BAL style physicality will be emphasized. While Sanchez has only avg’d 147 ypg (49%) with a 3-7 ratio in 4 road games aside from the season opener but he won’t have to deal with cold weather (dome), a hostile crowd (more Jets fans expected), has the OL vs DL advantage (#7 sacks allowed vs #22 sacks by) & the Jets get the win here.

Denver 28 KANSAS CITY 20 - The dog is 5-2 ATS. DEN was in a great situation LW vs a tired Giants team coming cross country with little practice on a short week. DEN had 14-3 FD & 213-38 yd edges in the 1H as they held the Giants to 5 punts & a fumble on their 1H drives. They now have the edge of a mini-bye & have the #18 & #5 units (+2 TO’s) vs KC’s #30 & #30 units (+1 TO’s). However they are 1-17 SU vs KC in December & have a road game vs IND on deck. KC has been outgained 402-278 at home TY but have upset PIT & sent DAL to OT TY & have covered 5 of their L7. DEN can be run on (146 ypg 4.5 L5W) & despite big names in the secondary they given up 198 ypg (67%) with a 10-2 ratio since the DAL game. KC didn’t get the breaks it needs to compete LW vs SD & were outgained 426-284 marking the 8th time TY they have given up 400 yds. KC was held to 20 or less yds on 9 drives with 10 of their 16 FD’s coming on the 2 scoring drives. DEN will win this game in the trenches (#7 sacks allowed, #4 sacks by, KC #31 & #30) which will enable Orton to get back to playing mistake free football allowing the Broncos to keep their playoff hopes alive.

PITTSBURGH 34 Oakland 7 - PIT was forced to start Dennis Dixon LW in his 1st career start & he did a decent job (145 yds 46% 1-1) making plays with mobility vs a tough BAL defense. PIT has lost 3 straight games for the 1st time since mid-2006. OAK has 3 extra days rest here but they were thumped 44-7 vs the Giants on their last East Coast trip. PIT will be familiar with Gradkowski though as they held him to 18 yds on 16 att’s LY (31%) with 2 int’s in LY’s season finale (CLE) but he only had 2 wks on the roster prior. While Gradkowski did lead OAK to an upset vs CIN the fact is he’s only completed 50% with 5.4 & 5.7 ypa’s in his 2 starts. OAK only had 11 of 62 plays in DAL territory LW punting on their first 6 drives. While PIT has outgained teams 376-274 at home TY they have displayed a nasty tendency to play down to the level of their foes going 0-5 ATS vs losing teams & are 4-10 ATS as DD favs. OAK has been outgained 412-188 on the road TY (34 yds worse than CLE) with their only covers being vs div foes KC & SD. PIT needs a big win to right the ship & Roethlisberger needs a big game after teammates openly questioned him after sitting out vs BAL despite practicing all week & OAK simply is in the way.

JACKSONVILLE 21 Houston 20 - This is the 4th straight AFC South game for the Texans who have the rest edge here after a late bye followed up by 2 home games while JAX is off a long flight to & from SF. JAX beat HOU 31-24 as a 3.5 pt AD in the 1st meeting TY which was closer than the final score. HOU had 2nd & 2 on the Jax 2 with 2:10 left but fumbled into the EZ for a touchback & the Jags ran out the clock. HOU is 4-1 ATS on the road thanks to the best road offense in the NFL TY with a 426-333 yd edge scoring 26 ppg. This has been due to Schaub who has avg’d 340 ypg (70%) with an 11-6 ratio away. Their mental state is unknown after blowing a 17-0 lead with 12-4 FD & 178-37 yd edges early vs IND. On their next 2 drives they settled for FG’s which gave IND the momentum to come back. JAX has covered 3 of their 1st 4 games which were vs div foes but have gone 2-6 ATS since thanks to the #26 pass defense (19-9 ratio) & #32 pass rush which has 2 or more sacks in just 3 games. JAX can’t get off the field on 3rd Dns allowing 44% the L8 games while HOU has allowed the NFL targeted 33% in the same span. The Jags are only 2-11 ATS at home, 1-11 ATS as a fav & are 31st in home attendance TY so crowd noise is not a factor here & the Texans still have a winning record to play for despite 3 home losses.

INDIANAPOLIS 27 Tennessee 20 - The Colts dominated the Titans 31-9 on SNF in the 1st meeting to improve to 2-5 ATS in the series. The Titans were without their #2 CB Finnegan & lost #1 CB Harper early in the 3Q. Manning had 309 yds passing (82%) with a 3-1 ratio as the Colts finished with a 367-245 yd edge. IND’s defensive injuries are catching up to them as their 19 game win streak had a close brush vs HOU in the 1H. They rallied from 17-0 down to outgain HOU 305-218 & outscore them 35-10. IND has the #9 & #29 units (+1 TO’s) over the L4W while TEN has the #6 & #12 units (+3 TO’s). IND has been outgained in 3 of their L4 games & have allowed 299 ypg (71%) passing 6-6 in the L4W with just 6 sacks vs 180 ypg (61%) with a 3-7 ratio & 20 sacks the 1st 7 games. TEN is 5-0 SU & ATS under Young (400-323 yd edge) & the surge of Chris Johnson who has avg’d 160 ypg (6.6) in the span. They outgained ARZ 532-292 (albeit with Leinart) & Young’s dramatic game winning drive cemented his status as the Titans leader. Manning regards TEN as his main rival in the AFC South & will have the offense ready. The Colts defense has holes & Fisher will slow the game down here & wear down the defense.

CINCINNATI 23 Detroit 13 - This is a game where the Lions simply don’t match up well statistically with the #26 & #32 units (-9 TO’s) vs CIN’s #17 & #7 units (+2 TO’s). DET has been outgained 423-275 on the road TY (3rd worst) going 0-5 ATS. While Stafford reverted to his rookie form vs GB (213 yds 47% 1-4) he was a surprise start with his dislocated shoulder. He did have DET inside the GB 5 three times but only came away with 10 pts with some questionable play calling partially to blame. Already limited by a bad OL (#28 sacks allowed, 3.8 ypc) the Lions offense suffered a big blow as they lost TE Pettigrew (#3 30 rec’s 11.5) to a torn ACL. Palmer (211 ypg 61% 15-8) has yet to have a 300 yd game TY but he now faces the #32 pass defense that has allowed 7 games of 300+ yds passing TY with a 27-6 ratio. Yes DET is 1-5 ATS as a DD dog TY but CIN has a big game at MIN on deck, are in a flat spot after essentially wrapping up the AFC North & the dog is 10-0 ATS in Bengal games.

New Orleans 24 WASHINGTON 17 - This is a letdown spot for NO who are off a huge MNF game vs NE, travel to ATL next followed up by hosting DAL. WAS has played way above their talent level the L3W, upsetting DEN, almost beating DAL & putting a good scare into PHI & didn’t have Haynesworth the L2W. WAS did beat NO 29-24 as a 1 pt HF LY. NO had a 9 pt lead with 10:30 left in the game but allowed a 82/8pl drive for a TD, went 3 & out & Campbell had a 67 yd TD pass to take the win. Brees was held to 221 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio. Since Sherm Lewis took over as the OC, WAS has avg’d 327 ypg & 18.2 ppg vs 294 ypg & 13.2 ppg & the #8 defense hasn’t been on the field as much. NO has been beat up in the back of the defense & forced to bring in older street FA’s (McAllister & McKenzie) for reinforcements. NO knows that they will get the best of what opposing teams have to offer due to their record & have gone 1-4 ATS prior to MNF. There is no line due to MNF & Campbell may sit due to concussion issues after blacking out after a big hit LW but NO’s flat spot & WAS’s def has this as a 7 pt game.

CAROLINA 21 Tampa Bay 7 - CAR ground out a 28-21 win as a 3 pt AF vs TB in the 1st meeting moving to 5-10 ATS vs CAR with the favorite being 5-1 ATS. While CAR had 22-12 FD & 322-245 yd edges in the game they blew a 21-7 lead allowing a 97 yd KR & 26 yd IR’s for TD’s. CAR outrushed TB 267 (5.6) to 124 (5.0) & Delhomme only had 1 pass att on the game winning drive. Delhomme cost the Panthers another game LW as he had just 130 yds (41%) with 4 ints which the Jets turned into 14 points. CAR lacks a receiving threat outside of Steve Smith (46 13.1) who has bruised ribs & if they don’t get the #5 run game on track they lose. TB sustained another close loss LW despite ATL losing their QB, RB & LT in the game. Freeman had a very good game (250 yds 69% 2-0) but now has to travel for the 2nd week vs the #3 pass def allowing a respectable 6.6 ypa & 12-12 ratio. CAR has had pass rush problems with Peppers playing with a broken hand with 4 team sacks L4W but the Panther DB’s are better than the TB WR’s. Look for CAR to focus on wearing out TB’s #25 rush def allowing 5.2 ypc to keep Delhomme out of trouble & rookie HC’s that lost by 3 or less are 4-24 ATS since 2005.
SEATTLE 20 San Francisco 17 - In their first meeting TY SF had a season high 379 yds in a 23-10 (-1) win. They also outgained SEA by 96 yds which is 1 of only 2 opponents (STL) that they won the yardage battle against. While SF’s 20-3 win looks impressive on the scoreboard they were outgained 357-284 & won because they played a turnover-free game. That is harder to accomplish on the road especially in the still loud Qwest Field. SF has a 4-0-1 ATS mark away but while they have kept games close they are still 1-4 SU & have been outgained by 116 ypg. Also SF QB Smith has struggled here & in his 3 starts he’s avg 118 ypg & 47% completions. SEA meanwhile got a 27-17 win at STL & while they were outgained 364-265 that can be attributed to a brutal 3rd straight road game & 4th in 5 weeks. In QB Hasselback two home games vs losing teams he’s avg 304 ypg (74%) & now faces the #28 pass D. The loss of RB Julius Jones the L2W has bogged down the offense & he may be back here. Credit to SF HC Singletary for playing well but winning division road games is another matter.

Dallas 24 NY GIANTS 21 - DAL is 1-4 ATS after their Thanksgiving game & their traditional rest edge is negated here with NY also off a Thursday game. The Cowboys rebounded from 2 disappointing outings vs GB & WAS by easily handling an overmatched OAK team with a 504-324 yd edge. NY meanwhile was mauled at DEN as they were outgained 213-38 & out’FD 14-3 at HT. The Giants have now lost 5 of 6 & the OL has struggled having allowed 14 sacks in the last 5 games. QB Manning will be a ? as a stress reaction may put him on the bench leaving David Carr as the starter. Carr has seen limited action (39 att’s) in 4 games earlier TY. DAL has now won 6 of 7 & they are doing it with a mistake free offense & an improving defense. Since allowing 450 yds & 427 yds in the first 2 games the Cowboys have allowed just 303 ypg while not having allowed over 337 yds in any other game. The rush D has led the way & in their L3 road games they’ve only allowed 89 ypg & 3.3 ypc. Romo continues to fly under the radar as in his last 7 games he’s produced a 13-3 ratio. Romo missed LY’s 35-14 loss in the Meadowlands but certainly remembers his last trip here as in ‘07 as he threw for 247 (71%) with a 4-1 ratio in a 31-20 win. Dallas gets revenge for their first & only home loss in that emotional home opener.

New England 27 MIAMI 12 - While the MNF results are unknown, there will certainly be some hangover here in a December battle that has playoff implications. In the earlier meeting TY NE beat MIA 27-17 but failed to cover by a half point. HC Belichick savors the conference road & has now covered 13 of 15 (87%) & if they are off a loss at NO, NE is now 18-3 (86%) off a SU loss incl winning & covering all 3 games TY by a combined 112-27. MIA won their 1st game w/out RB Brown but LW a combined 4 int’s led to their demise in BUF. One int was thrown by RB Williams as the “Wildcat” tricks become less effective. The other issue will be the durability of Williams as in the 2.5 games since being the “go to” guy he’s rushed the ball 69 times after having just 68 carries as a complimentary RB in the first 8 games. The last & most important issue is the matchup of QB’s. In the last 5 games Henne is avg 171 ypg (55%) with a 4-6 ratio vs Brady playing some of his best ball ever avg 341 ypg (72%) & a 14-4 ratio. Belichick has seen what Henne is capable of & will have a better gameplan for the rematch & it wouldn’t be a surprise if Fred Taylor returned here as well.

Baltimore at GREEN BAY - The Ravens got above .500 with a OT win against PIT without QB Roethlisberger. They are now playing their 3rd primetime game in 4 weeks & are still alive for a playoff spot. Green Bay meanwhile does have extra rest off a comfortable Thanksgiving Day win as they outgained DET 422-272.

RED SHEET

LOUISIANA TECH 51 - San Jose State 7 - (2:00 EST) -- Line opened at LaTech minus 17, and is now
minus 18. As our readers are well aware, we've been on this Bulldog squad in the host role
for the past couple of seasons, & have been duly rewarded. This year, they have not only
covered all 3 HGs, but by an average spread margin of 15 ppg. Their 3-8 straightup record
is highly misleading, as they've covered their last 4 games, all vs teams which will play in
bowls, while scoring 34, 35, & 28 pts in 3 of those matches. Spartans in off their only Div 1A
win of the season, vs 3-9 NMexSt, by 3 pts in the final 0:34. Bulldog blowout!
RATING: LOUISIANA TECH 90

CONNECTICUT 34 - South Florida 17 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Connecticut minus 6½, and is now minus
7. The Huskies of UConn are another team whose record hardly reflects its true worth. Five
losses by a combined 15 pts, & those all coming vs bowl squads, with names such as
NoCaro, Pitt, WestVa, Rutgers, & Cincinnati. But the pressure is now off, as last week's win
over Syracuse places them in the bowl eligible column. The Bulls of SoFlorida opened at 5-
0, seemingly overcame the loss of their brilliant leader, QB Grothe, but that has gone by the
boards, losing their last 2 RGs by a combined 72-14 score. Host series.
RATING: CONNECTICUT 89

BOISE STATE 66 - New Mexico State 0 - (3:00) -- Line opened at BoiseSt minus 45, and is now minus
46½. Sure, it seems ridiculous in backing a team laying such an astronomical amount of
pts. However, the Broncos simply own the top scoring team in the nation, while the Ags
check in with the absolute worst scoring offense in the land. Boise has reached the 6th spot
in the nation, & another romping win could project them even higher. Led by QB Moore (38
TD passes), we would not be surprised if this spot is covered by intermission.
RATING: BOISE STATE 88

INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Tennessee 25 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 7½, and is now minus 7.
The Colts have been nothing short of spectacular, not only in opening at a perfect 11-0, but
in extending their regular season run to 20 straight. A win here ties them for the all time
such mark with the Patriots, who set the record beginning with the tail end of the '06 season,
thru the first 2 games of '08. But this won't be easy, as the Titans are among the hottest
teams in the NFL, having fully recovered from their disastrous 0-6 start. Young has recaptured
his former magic, & RB Johnson seems unstoppable. This a barnburner.
RATING: TENNESSEE 89

Denver 27 - KANSAS CITY 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Denver minus 4, and is now minus 4½. As we
wrote earlier, the demise of these Broncos may have been a bit premature. They seemed
to confirm the notion that their quick start was a fluke, as that run was followed by a 4 game
slide, in which they were stung for 169 pts. But last week's throttling of the Giants was just
what was needed for a revitalized stretch run. And what better opponent in which to keep it
going, than these Chiefs, who rank 30th in both total "O", & total "D"? The visitor has covered
all 3 KC division games this year, & by a combined 55½ pts ATS.
RATING: DENVER 88

GREEN BAY 26 - Baltimore 17 - (8:35 Monday - ESPN) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 3, and is still
minus 3. The Packers couldn't have a much better setup than this one, as they not only
have the advantage of an extra 3 days in which to prepare, but catch the Ravens off a pair of
absolute draining efforts vs the Colts & Steelers, in games which were decided by 2 pts, &
in OT. The Packers not only move the ball behind Rodgers, who has yet to receive his
proper acclaim, but also own the NFL's 3rd ranked "D". Pack in bruising win.
RATING: GREEN BAY 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Arizona, Texas, Ga Tech, -- NFL: Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New England

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

PLAYBOOK

Thursday, December 3

OREGON over Oregon St by 6

Grant and Lee have nothing on the 113th edition of this ‘Civil War.’ The
nation’s 7th oldest rivalry resumes in Eugene with a trip to Pasadena and
a BCS Bowl on the line. You can bet your musket Mike Riley’s troops will
remember the 38-point beating they took at home in last year’s season fi nale
which ultimately cost them the Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl appearance.
For the most part, this battle has been a closely contested one with the
Ducks holding a 56-46-10 series advantage. Oregon HC Chip Kelly will be
on the sidelines for the fi rst time in this rivalry but Riley has been a veteran
of these wars, posting a 4-5 SU mark. As expected, the ATS numbers are
good on both sides. The Beavers are 7-1 ATS with rest, a perfect 7-0 ATS
after scrimmaging with Washington State and a moneymaking 11-4 ATS
as double-digit conference dogs. The Ducks counter with an 8-1 ATS mark
with rest, a 9-1 ATS log off a SU win but ATS loss and an impressive 12-3
record as double-digit conference favorites. We may revisit this one when
the fi nal number settles in but at this point we’ll side with the northern
visitors whose general fi ghts with an 8-2 SU and ATS mark with rest when
battling a foe off a SU win. The Union won the ‘Battle of Beaver Dam Creek’
in Mechanicsville in 1862. Look for Riley’s Beavers to hang tough in this
battle 147 years later.

Friday, December 4

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP

C Michigan over Ohio U by 14
Good move by the MAC committee, featuring their championship game a day
before the big boys get down to business. Another good thing is that Central
Michigan QB Dan LeFevour headlines tonight’s showdown. The record-setting
signal caller will leave Mt. Pleasant with a resume that includes, to this point,
99 TD passes, over 12,000 passing yards and 36 career wins. LeFevour is also a
perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in MAC championship tilts, including a 31-10 win over
these same Bobcats in the 2006 title game. The Chips have been installed as
double-digit favorites at partisan Ford Field in Detroit and the numbers warrant
it. The series dog checks in with a putrid 0-4-1 ATS mark with the average loss
coming by 26 points! While Ohio HC Frank Solich is a solid 23-8 SU and 18-8-1 ATS
versus scrubs (sub .400 foes), he is just 8-21-1 SU and 13-16 ATS when taking
on an opponent with some bite (greater than .400 opposition). Meanwhile,
CMU head man Butch Jones is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS versus an opponent
off a SU dog win and has held his own against greater than .333 opposition,
winning 14 of 22 SU and 15 of them on the ATS scoreboard. However, this one
is all about LeFevour and the senior, once again, passes the test with a 10-0 SU
and 9-1 ATS mark versus conference opponents off a SU and ATS win. See ‘ya,
Dan… MAC foes surely won’t miss you but our wallets will.

Saturday, December 5

UCONN over S Florida by 7
We would normally look to back the Bulls against a pack of tiring sled dogs
that, to the casual observer, appear to be fi nishing strong (two straight wins,
three straight covers) but in reality are limping to the Iditarod fi nish line. Our
MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us that Randy Edsall’s emotionally drained Huskies
have lost the stats in each of the last three games and have allowed seasonhigh
yardage to two of those opponents. However, before turning in your sled
for a South Florida surfboard remember that Jim Leavitt’s bunch is once again
swimming against the current. After starting their 3rd straight season with a
5-game win streak, the Bulls have won only two of their last seven games. In
fact, they’re a disappointing 8-11 SU from Game Seven out over the last three
years. If you’re looking for any kind of trend between these two Big East alsorans,
jot down South Florida’s 3-0 ATS mark in Last Road Games and UConn’s
0-3 ATS log in home enders. While that may point you in the direction of South
Florida, remember what Lynn Anderson so eloquently sang, “Along with the
sunshine, there’s gotta be a little rain sometimes.” Pass for now.

RUTGERS over West Virginia by 3
As bad as the aforementioned South Florida Bulls have been in the latter part
of the season, Rutgers has been that good. From Game Seven out over the
past two seasons, the Scarlet Knights have won 11 of 12 SU and 10 of 12 on
the ATS scorecard. The lone loss was a puzzling 18-point defeat at Syracuse
two week ago. Greg Schiano’s crew rebounded nicely with a convincing road
win at Louisville last week and their 6-2 ATS record in Last Home Games tells
us to expect more of the same this week in New Brunswick. The Mountaineers,
however, do arrive with some pretty gaudy ATS numbers, themselves. They’re
11-2 ATS away versus .750 or less conference foes and a surprising 3-0 SU and
ATS away after their annual ‘backyard brawl’ with Pitt. Yes, we know the series
visitor is 6-1 ATS but we’re not about to pass up a quality home dog barking
with revenge. This one should go down to the wire with the winner claiming
third spot in the Big East and the quality bowl bid that goes along with it.

ADDED GAME

Arkansas St over W KENTUCKY by 8
The Sun Belt conference features the only other matchup on this Thursday
night card. Which leads us to this burning question – why? Maybe L.T.
Smith Stadium in Bowling Green is booked on Saturday with a Monster
truck demo or a tobacco-spitting contest. Whatever the case may be, we
certainly didn’t need Kreskin to tell us that the 3-8 Arkansas State Red
Wolves or the winless Western Kentucky Hilltoppers would enter this
season fi nale with very much at stake. Red Wolves’ HC Steve Roberts
hasn’t enjoyed a winning season in his 8-year stint in Jonesboro and the
Hilltoppers arrive on a 19-game losing streak. The hosts have played hard
for lame-duck HC David Elson, grabbing the cash in their last 3 contests
but our WORST COMES TO WORST article on page 2 has us dancing with
the Wolves. Roberts is a healthy 7-3 ATS away versus winless opposition
including a spotless 3-0 ATS off a SU loss. However, the visitors’ toothless
1-9 ATS log in their last 10 attempts as road chalk tempers our enthusiasm.
If you want to play it, we suggest you lay it. We “Betcha Didn’t Know”

ILLINOIS over Fresno St by 6
It’s kind of ironic that the Fighting Illini would cap off a strange season with a
pair of non-conference contests. The month of November is usually reserved
for conference play but Zook’s crooks play host to the WAC and Fresno State
in this season-ender. This is one week after Illinois took to the road for a
matchup with Cincinnati, the No. 5 team in the country. The Illini gave the
Bearcats everything they could handle in that contest, even outgaining the
hosts, before succumbing in a 13-point loss. In fact, the multiple-personality
Illini have covered four of their last fi ve games and won the stats battle in
three of their last four after starting the season 0-5 in both departments. As
for 7-4 Fresno State, they don’t have a quality win on their resume and it
appears HC Pat Hill’s “anyone, anytime, anywhere” mantra has come back
to bite him as his Bulldogs came up empty in their road trips to Wisconsin
and Cincinnati. Here’s another bone to chew on before backing the biteless
visitors: the Bulldogs are 3-15 ATS off a spread loss versus an opponent off a
SU loss. Before pointing to Fresno’s 3-1 SU mark in their last four, take note of
its 0-4 ‘In The Stats’ log over that same period. Also, don’t forget about its 5-14
ATS mark over the past four years during the last fi ve games of the season. It’s
a case of too little, too late for the surging Illini but we’ll back them “anytime”
in this non-conference matchup.

LA TECH over San Jose St by 20
“I’ll be home for Christmas. You can count on me.” With no disrespect to Bing
or Elvis, that’s what appears in the San Jose State football handbook as the
Spartans will miss a bowl for the 9th time this decade. In fact, San Jose State
has been bowling only once since the 1990 season. It’s a good thing these
Spartans are not away on the holidays or anytime soon for that matter as they
travel with an 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS passport. To make matters worse, they
have been outgained by a ridiculous 269 YPG in those contests. We’re fully
aware it’s Dick Tomey’s coaching swan song but the Spartans won one for him
in his home fi nale and a quick check of seven common opponents fi nds the
Spartans at a -146 net YPG average and the Bulldogs at a +18 net YPG. With
the Bulldogs going 4-0 ATS in their last four games, 3-0 ATS at home versus
an opponent off back-to-back SU losses since 1990 and 2-0 ATS this season as a
favorite, we’ll stay at home and lay the double digits. You can count on that.

BOISE ST over New Mexico St by 45
With Oklahoma State getting whitewashed by the Sooners last week, Boise
State, Iowa (10-2), Penn State (10-2) and TCU (12-0) are all in the Fiesta Bowl
mix. But Iowa and Penn State can’t both be in BCS games because no league
can have more than two teams selected for the fi ve BCS bowls, and Rose Bowlbound
Ohio State is ticketed to meet the winner of the Oregon-Oregon State
game. Reality check: why aren’t the Broncos ALREADY a lock to get a BCS bid?
Granted, they fi rst have to beat New Mexico State but only a cataclysmic event
such as the earth splitting open and swallowing Boise’s fi rst and second-string
players could give the Aggies even a remote chance at springing the upset. No,
folks, it’s not about whether you fi nish the season undefeated… it’s whether
there are any scraps left over from the power conference’s tables or, even worse,
if your team ‘travels well’ and can guarantee a profi table amount of ticket
sales. What hypocrisy! We say if Boise State wins today (and 46-point favorites
seldom lose), they should automatically earn a rematch with undefeated TCU
in the Fiesta Bowl. The Frogs prevailed last year in a 17-16 slugfest when these
two outstanding teams – to the eternal shame of the BCS – were dumped into
the barely-visible Poinsettia Bowl. That won’t happen again, not with TCU and
Boise State occupying the No. 4 and No. 6 slots respectively in the current
BCS standings. But let’s get back to TODAY’S game on the Smurf Turf. When
TCU spotted New Mexico 44 points last Saturday, we told you that under no
circumstances would we ever lay such a heavy price. And that assertion holds
true here. Should the number climb to 48 points or higher, be advised that CFB
favorites in this price range have gone just 8-20 ATS lately, including 3-17 ATS
if they scored 40 or more points the previous game. As far as the Aggies, we
nearly blew the circuits in our database trying to fi nd a positive stat but we did
come up with one: NMSU is 4-0-1 ATS away off a previous away game. That’s
it. If you look elsewhere, you’ll fi nd thirteen other games on today’s schedule –
which means there are thirteen better games than this one to consider. Repeat
after us: I will not play this game… I will not play this game…

USC over Arizona by 7
How miffed was USC’s Pete Carroll when Stanford snapped his personal string
of seven straight Pac-10 titles by ripping the Trojans for a Carroll-worst 55
points just three weeks ago? Plenty, apparently. Leading 21-7 over UCLA last
Saturday with just 54 seconds remaining, USC QB Matt Barkley took a knee
on the fi rst play of what looked to be the fi nal series of downs. But when
Bruins coach Rick Neuheisel called one of his three timeouts in attempt to get
the ball back, Carroll went all ‘Tiger Woods’ on him and ordered Barkley to
run a play-action pass on the next snap. When the pass resulted in a 48-yard
touchdown, Trojan players immediately started taunting their opponents and
a full-scale brawl was narrowly averted. Nice work, Pete! Maybe he’ll be a bit
more respectful this week considering the Wildcats have covered four straight
in this series and four of the last fi ve at the Coliseum. We’d love to back the
feisty Cats but after three straight photo fi nishes (losses to Cal and Oregon
followed by a win over Arizona State) we wonder how much gas is left in
Zona’s tank. The men of Troy do own a fl awless 5-0 SU and ATS record at
home off back-to-back homers and a solid 5-1 ATS mark after battling the
Bruins. But they’re also just 2-8 ATS versus conference revenge and have failed
to cover fi ve straight games as chalk of less than 13 points. The Wildcats’ Mike
Stoops has taken the Trojans to the limit in their last two confrontations, both
ending in 7-point losses for UA. Sure, the adrenaline will be fl owing on Senior
Day, but USC’s offense hasn’t gained more than 336 yards in any of its last four
games while averaging a mere 20.8 PPG. That’s not the sort of ammo we want
to carry into combat when laying a TD to a capable conference foe. Pass.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

WASHINGTON over California by 1
Hmmm, what IS that sound? It’s certainly a familiar one. Oh, now we
know… it’s the wheels coming off California’s season as the less-than-
Golden Bears lose control and drive straight over a fi re hydrant and into a
tree en route to yet another year-ending swoon. Head coach Jeff Tedford,
the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, is an accomplished
hand at this sort of thing, going 6-12-1 ATS away from game Eight out,
including 0-5 ATS when favored. Wait, there’s more – and it’s all bad
news for the Bears. Cal is a dreadful 1-11 ATS when laying 3 or more
points to an opponent with revenge off a double-digit SU win, 0-4 ATS
when favored off a SU dog win and 1-4 ATS away from Berkeley following
a week’s rest. The Huskies have improved dramatically under fi rst-year
head coach Steve Sarkisian and show up for their fi nal home game fresh
off a satisfying 30-0 domination of rival Washington State. They also
bring along a stout 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS record as home dogs versus a foe
off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Best of all, our AWESOME ANGLE and
TRIVIA TEASER come together here for what will be Washington’s ‘bowl
game’ for 2009. Huskies as home dogs? Works for us.

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 3
Jeez, as if Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly wasn’t already under enough
pressure. While preparing for the biggest game of his coaching career where
he can deliver an undefeated season and second straight Big East championship
to the Bearcat faithful by beating Pittsburgh, Notre Dame pink-slips Charlie
Weis and suddenly Kelly is at the top of the list to restore the Irish program
to national prominence. On the opposite sideline, coach Dave Wannstedt,
who has been a constant target for criticism after leading the Panthers to a
mediocre 25-23 record in four seasons, fi nally has his alma mater poised to
claim its fi rst-ever conference title and a BCS bowl appearance. Which way to
go? The ATS archives suggest a strong lean to the home team. Pitt has cashed
in four of the last fi ve meetings and covered three straight at home. The
Panthers also boast a solid 5-1 ATS mark when playing with Big East revenge.
We already know that the pressure builds exponentially at this time of year
for undefeated teams and Cincy doesn’t inspire confi dence with its 1-4 ATS
record in Last Road Games and a weak 2-5 ATS mark off a double-digit nonconference
win when battling a Big East opponent. Tough to fade a Bearcats
offense that’s topped the 30-point barrier six times this season but we’ll take
a shot with Wanny’s stout stop unit, surrendering just 14 PPG at home in 2009.
Undefeated Cincinnati may look especially enticing if the game remains at a
‘Pick’ but don’t be swayed. The Panthers fi nally break through with a signature
win for Wannstedt.

Wisconsin over HAWAI’I by 6
Take a good look at the ‘BOLDED’ school above: it’s the only time you’ll ever
see us print the word with that goofy apostrophe between the two I’s…
no matter how politically incorrect the decision may be. We did it simply to
salute the Warriors for their 24-17 win over Navy last week as 9.5-point home
underdogs. A win today and Hawaii has a good shot to go bowling despite a
demoralizing 2-5 start to the season. With a high temperature of 29 degrees
slated for Saturday in Madison, the Badgers will be more than eager to hop
a jet for this mini-vacation before their upcoming bowl game. Besides the
obvious distractions of sun, sand, surf and bikini-clad wahines, UH also owns
a few ATS edges in this matchup. Wisky is just 3-12 ATS as a road favorite of
more than 7 points (0-9 off a SU win) while UH has fought its way to an 11-2
ATS record as non-conference home dogs – including a perfect 8-0 ATS ledger
when playing off a SU win. The Islanders have also more than held their own
against Big 10 opposition, going 5-3 SU and 8-0 ATS in that role after facing a
non-WAC foe. The Badgers have had two weeks to stew over an aggravating
33-31 loss to Northwestern but Hawaii seems hell-bent on securing its fourth
consecutive bowl invitation, riding a 4-0 SU and In The Stats effort in the
Warriors’ last four games. Greg McMakin’s team may not reach that goal here
but UH bettors should strike gold at the end of the pointspread rainbow.

ADDED GAME

Fla Atlantic over FLORIDA INT’L by 3
The best things about this game? It marks the end of the hurricane season
in south Florida and also brings down the curtain on another year of mindnumbing
Sun Belt ‘football.’ In what has to be the least-appealing of all Sunshine
State rivalries, the 2009 ‘Shula Bowl’ will be played on the FIU campus for the
fi rst time. The Golden Panthers certainly need all the help they can get: there
are 16 seniors on FAU’s roster who have NEVER lost to Florida International.
However, FIU has closed the gap lately, rebounding from a pair of 30+ point
series defeats to lose by only a touchdown in last season’s wild 57-50 shootout.
But that’s not enough to get us off the Owls. If Howard Schnellenberger’s boys
stay favored, our WORST COMES TO WORST article on page 2 instructs us to
lay the points with FAU. And if the line should somehow move to make FIU the
chalk, the Owls become a BOD – a Better Offense and Defense dog. Either way,
we’re casting our lot with the nocturnal birds of prey today.

C -USA CHAMPIONSHIP

EAST CAROLINA over Houston by 3
The Pirates brought home the Conference USA title last season by upsetting
Tulsa on the road as 12.5-point dogs. They’ll get a chance to defend their
championship this season in the comfy confi nes of Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
While the series visitor owns a healthy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark, including a 41-
24 Houston win last season in this building as 11-points dogs, we don’t mind
fading road chalk that allows 445 yards per game and 2nd-high yardage to
fi ve foes this season. The Cougars do, however, arrive with Heisman candidate
Case Keenum and a top-ranked offense that has accounted for over 600 yards
of total offense fi ve times this season. We’re certainly not expecting Keenum
and company to walk the plank this afternoon in Greenville but it should be
noted that the Cougars faced a relatively weak schedule with lined opponents
registering a 45-67 SU record. Pirate backers should remove the patch and
keep both eyes on the line as it will likely determine our fi nal say. As of this
press date, the hosts were installed as 1-point dogs and that’s the role where
ECU’s Skip Holtz brings home the treasure. The Pirates’ HC has garnered the
loot in 21 of 28 tries when taking points and that tightens to a swashbuckling
17-2 ATS if his mates scored 21 points in the previous game. All hands on deck
as the Bucs steal another Conference USA crown.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama over Florida by 1
Christian bookstores all across America are praying that Florida QB Tim Tebow
will eschew a career in the NFL to become the next Billy Graham and tirelessly
spread the Gospel around the globe – thus ensuring that sales of Bibles and
other Christian-oriented supplies and materials will go clear through the roof.
And who knows? If Tebow approached that task with the same evangelical
fervor he’s poured into his four years of Florida football, the world’s other
high-profi le religions might as well wave the white fl ag. But before Tebow is
granted sainthood, he still has at least one more game remaining in a Gators
uniform, a matchup that seems to have been pre-ordained since Florida
and Alabama opened the 2009 season ranked No. 1 and No. 5, respectively.
“College football wants this game,” said Florida coach Urban Meyer of the
rematch between last year’s SEC Championship participants. “I’ve been trying
to ignore it and push it back… but now that it’s right here in front of us,
there’s a sense of, ‘Hey, we’re here now. Let’s not worry about it, let’s just go
play.’ “ However, the shoe is on the other foot this year: the Tide was 12-0 and
ranked No. 1 when they lost, 31-20, to the Gators in ‘08’s title bout – thanks to
a Tim Tebow-led fourth-quarter comeback. This year it’s Florida that sits atop
the BCS standings, looking to repeat last year’s epic conquest of the Tide and
play for a third national championship under Meyer’s command. UF has gone
2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Alabama in SEC title bouts and, amazingly, this game
marks the 10th straight time the Gators have been favored over the Tide in the
series. However, our powerful database fi nds little to like about the swampdwellers
from an ATS standpoint. Defending national champions are 12-10-3
SU and 6-18-1 ATS as favorites of less than seven points versus an opponent
with revenge since 1989, including 6-5-1 SU and 1-10-1 ATS if the defending
champs are undefeated. Equally disturbing is the fact that unbeaten teams in
title games off a SU and ATS win are just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS if they’re off a
win of 17 or more points. Meanwhile, Bama coach Nick Saban stands 16-8-1
ATS as a dog with revenge, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when taking less
than seven points. The ‘Nictator’ is also a bankroll-building 9-3 SU and ATS
versus undefeated team when his team is also undefeated. Need more? Then
check out this STAGGERING STAT: in matchups featuring the AP’s No. 1 ranked
team versus No. 2 ranked opponent, the No. 1 team is 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS if
they are off a win of 25 or more points in their previous game. One fi nal note
– Florida football teams have NEVER had an undefeated season in their 101-
year school history. Bam! Just like that, the dream and the Gators’ 22-game
win streak ends today.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP

Clemson over Ga Tech by 3
The ACC title game is the only one of the fi ve conference championship games
that features a same-season rematch. If this one is anything like the game that
took place in early September, then we should all be in for an entertaining
Saturday night. The Yellow Jackets blew a 24-0 lead in that one before rallying
for a 30-27 last-minute win. Series history tells us this should once again come
down to the wire as 11 of the last 14 meetings between these two have been
decided by fi ve points or less. History also tells us that the Tigers have earned
their stripes as a ‘pick’ or dog in the series, posting a strong 9-1 ATS mark. With
both squads limping in off rivalry losses, it would appear the Yellow Jackets
might have the edge as Paul Johnson is a solid 33-12 ATS versus an opponent
off a loss. However, Tech’s head coach hasn’t fared well against .555 or greater
opposition in his career, carrying a poor 13-21 SU and 17-17 ATS mark. Our
SMART BOX tells us to fade Johnson and his Jackets and we’re not about to
square off with the sagacious one – not with teams in the ACC title game a
perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when seeking revenge. Georgia Tech lost a tough one
to Wake Forest, 9-6, in 2006 in its only other championship appearance and
we’ll look for them to once again get the boot. Dabo and the Tigers claw their
way to their fi rst-ever ACC crown.

B I G 12 CHAMPIONSHIP

Texas over Nebraska by 17
As Michael Corleone proved with his masterfully orchestrated assassinations of
the heads of the other New York Families in the classic 1972 fi lm, ‘The Godfather,’
revenge is, indeed, “a dish best served cold.” Well, we’re here to tell you ol’ Mikey
ain’t got nothin’ on Texas head coach Mack Brown. Almost a full year has passed
since Brown’s 11-1 Longhorns were denied a berth in the 2008 BCS Championship
game against Florida. Despite beating UF’s eventual opponent, Oklahoma, on
the fi eld in last season’s Red River Rivalry game, a narrow loss to Texas Tech
locked Texas out of the Big 12 title game – and a resulting bid to compete for
the Crystal Football. But even though Longhorn nation was justifi ably outraged
at the machinations of the BCS, Brown never bitched, moaned, complained or
whined. He guided his team to a 24-21 win over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl,
then quietly went to work laying the foundation for his ultimate revenge. Now,
that time has come: a win tonight over Nebraska and Mack the Knife will be
poised to carve out his second national championship with Texas against the
survivor of the Florida-Alabama showdown. However, it’s a win the Longhorns
will have to fi ght tooth-and-nail to earn. Bo Pelini’s resurgent Huskers enter this
contest riding a fi ve-game win streak, led by a rugged defensive unit that allows
just 11 points, 291 yards and 3.0 yards rushing per game. In fact, only TWO of
Nebraska’s 12 opponents have managed to score more than 17 points in a game
this season! Those of you who kicked back on Thanksgiving eve and watched
Texas A&M rip through the Longhorn defense for 532 yards and 39 points might
be taking a serious look at the double-digit spread, especially since two of
the Corn Boys’ three losses were by just 1 point and 2 points. Our PLAYBOOK
database, the lifeblood of our handicapping efforts, would advise you against
doing that. For openers, teams in Big 12 Conference championship games with
a win percentage of .750 or less are just 1-6 SU and ATS. Nebraska also owns a
poor 1-15 SU and 5-10-1 ATS record as a dog versus an undefeated opponent.
But the clincher belongs to the Horns’ Heisman candidate QB Colt McCoy, who
is at his absolute best in these situations. McCoy has compiled an outstanding
17-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS mark versus a foe off a pointspread loss, including 6-0
ATS versus .666 or greater opposition. Those numbers look even better when we
dig deep and discover that the Huskers were outyarded in four of their fi nal fi ve
games to end the regular season. It would be foolish, too, to discount the fan
advantage enjoyed by the boys from Austin since the game is being played at
Cowboys Stadium in north Texas. We could go on but here’s all you really need
to know: Mack ‘Corleone’ and his Longhorns will NOT be denied their shot at
the BCS title game. Bevo and company ‘go to the mattresses’ in Arlington and
emerge with the cash in hand.

NY Jets over BUFFALO by 6
Bills make their annual 96-mile border crossing to Toronto to host the Jets
Thursday night in a setting that is not conducive to Buffalo fans. Not only do
they dislike having to make the journey, the fans weren’t thrilled at having to
sit in the Rogers Centre throughout last year’s 16-3 loss as 2-point chalk to the
Dolphins. That result moved the mark of underdogs in Bills’ games to 4-0 ATS
in Thursday tilts. Tonight, however, the Flyboys will be out to exact revenge
from a 16-13 overtime loss in Week Six this season, a game in which New York
outstatted Buffalo, 404-296. We’d like to make a case for Buffalo’s improved
play under interim head coach Perry Fewell but we can’t. Not with the Jets
10-1-1 ATS against a division opponent off a division win of eight or more
points, and the Bills 6-30 ATS in games after meeting Miami – including 4-15
SU and 1-18 ATS when facing an opponent off a spread win. Sacre blue! Bills
run out of Fewell here.

3* BEST BET
Round Two of this AFC South division scrum fi nds the Texans in revenge
mode off a 31-24 loss in Week Three of the season. After climbing to new
heights at 5-3 at the halfway mark of the campaign, Houston couldn’t
breathe the conditioned air and has since choked its way back under
the Mendoza Line with three straight losses. It’s right where they like it,
though, as the Texans earn more than US Treasury bonds at 56-41-1 ATS
in their franchise history when playing with a losing record, including
28-10-1 ATS when off back-to-back losses. Gary Kubiak’s troops enter
today’s fray having outgained seven of its last eight opponents, with
the only stat loss a mere four yards to Tennessee two weeks ago. Given
Jack Del Rio’s disdain against division rivals seeking revenge (3-13 SU
and 4-12 ATS, including 0-7 SU and ATS last seven) we open our hearts
– and wallets – to Gary’s gang.Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 10

Denver over KANSAS CITY by 1
Chiefs return home to host division rival Denver in the fi rst of three straight
home games in the Tee Pee knowing they have allowed 2nd high yardage in
four of their last fi ve contests. That’s not a good indicator for losing teams at
this stage of the season. What does work for Featherheads is their 19-3 ATS
mark as home dogs of four or more points against foes with at least one loss
on their ledger. That and a sparkling 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS log in division games
against an opponent off a SU underdog win and spread cover of 20 or more
points in its last game. Meanwhile, Denver snapped a 0-4 SU and ATS losing
slide with its Turkey Day surprise over the Giants. Our database reports that
teams off a win, which was preceded by a 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak, are
6-27 SU and 12-21 ATS when facing a division foe. Tie that with the fact that
teams off a Thanksgiving Day win as a dog are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away in
their next game – along with Denver’s 1-9 ATS mark in December off a doubledigit
spread win – and we’ll put on the war paint in Arrowhead today.

PITTSBURGH over Oakland by 17
Uh, oh. Suddenly, the 2009 Steelers are taking on the persona of their 2006
brethren, the same team that followed its Super Bowl win with a Super Bust
season the following year. With Big Ben ticked after having had his clock
rung (check status) and the losses mounting, our database calls for relief this
weekend as it notes that defending Super Bowl champions are 11-2 SU and
9-4 ATS when playing off three losses in a row. The Steelers are also known
for hunkering down at home off a division loss where they stand 24-6 ATS,
including 10-0 ATS when hosting an opponent off a double-digit defeat. That
strikes home, as the Raiders are 1-10 ATS on the road in December with a
losing record when playing off a SU and ATS loss. Factor in Oakland’s ‘0-5 In
The Stats’ road log this campaign – by an average loss of 224 YPG – and we can
only look one way here today… provided, of course, Big Ben chimes in.
NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK
selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a
strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

4* BEST BET
Are we hopping the Vince Young Coal Train? Hardly. While he’s been
mining money for his backers ever since taking over the reins from Kerry
Collins after Tennessee’s Bye Week, we’ve been all over him like Elin
Woods-on-Tiger ever since she learned how to swing a club. That’s because
VY is 23-12 SU and 22-12-1 ATS in all starts, including 10-4 SU and 12-2
ATS in division games. Included in the Titans’ fi ve game win streak with
Young has been two SU and ATS same-season revenge wins they suffered
in their heinous 0-6 start to begin the season. Enter the 11-0 Colts, a team
that had been squeaking by in its previous four games until they awoke
from a 17-0 defi cit to get past Houston last week. Noting that 10-0 or
better NFL teams are just 6-18 ATS when facing an avenging opponent
and Indy’s propensity to return to earth as favorites in games after scoring
35 or more points during December (1-10 ATS), we not only see the Titans
bringing home the booty, but also stopping Indy in its tracks. All aboard.
Tennessee over INDIANAPOLIS by 6

Philadelphia over ATLANTA by 7
Too many uncertainties in this game to draw a fi rm conclusion at press time.
Obviously, the loss of Falcon QB Matt Ryan (turf toe) this week is critical. So, too,
is the condition of star RB Michael Turner, out with an ankle injury. Instead, it’s
journeyman QB Chris Redman to the rescue. For those of you who must know,
Redman has made 10 starts in the NFL, going 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS, including
6-1 ATS versus .428 or greater opposition. The bad news, though, is Atlanta’s
disgusting 7-24 ATS mark at home in games off a home win, including 1-14
ATS when facing an opponent off a win. These are the types of games Andy
Reid lives for where he is 19-7 ATS on the non-division road as a dog or favorite
of less than seven points versus an opponent off a division game, including
11-1 ATS from Game Ten out. However, until Philadelphia’s own injury list
is ironed out (WR DeSean Jackson, RB Brian Westbrook), we’ll withhold our
fl ight with the Green Birds for the moment.

CINCINNATI over Detroit by 14
The Lions continue to play like turkeys on Thanksgiving, and the Bengals
hold a two game lead atop the division. Which part of that statement do you
fi nd shocking? Not the former, that’s for sure. Amazingly, the Cincinnati run
continues despite the fact that they’ve scored more than 18 points in only one
of their last seven games. Which means they are getting the job done with the
help of the defense – yes, we said defense – one that ranks 7th in the league,
allowing 298 YPG. Therein lies the difference in this contest, with Detroit’s 32nd
and last-ranked defense surrendering almost 100 YPG more than the Bengals’
stop-unit. Before biting off a leg of Lion, consider: Thanksgiving Day teams are
5-18-1 ATS in their next games when facing a non-division opponent, including
0-8-1 ATS versus an opponent off a win of seven or more points. So then, are
we interested in laying doubles against these turkeys? Not in this lifetime. Not
with the Bengals 0-3 ATS as favorites of more than 13 points. Pass the gravy.

New Orleans over WASHINGTON by 6
Saints take the road off Monday night’s showcase 21-point destruction of the
Patriots looking to refocus against the lowly Redskins, and that could be a
problem. Forget the fact they are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in the fi rst of backto-
back road games. We’re more concerned about the Saints’ 2-5 SU and 0-7
ATS mark off a double-digit win versus an opponent off back-to-back losses.
The Skins put their 7-0 ATS log on the line at home versus a non-division
foe off back-to-back wins. They are also 9-1 ATS as December dogs off a loss
versus an opponent they beat in their most recent meeting. The bottom line
is Washington’s defense is too dangerous to be messing with, especially with
N’Awlins on a Bourbon Street high.

CAROLINA over Tampa Bay by 3
The Panthers let us down last week when their old nemesis – the turnover
bug – bit them once again. It’s no coincidence that in games Carolina has more
giveaways than takeaways they are 2-6 SU and ATS this season. It goes handin-
hand with their 1-3 ATS mark when laying points this year. With QB Jake
Delhomme suffering a broken fi nger on his passing hand (check status), the
line in this game has been adjusted (Panthers laid 3 points in a 28-21 win at
Tampa on Week Six). The problem today is that the Bucs are 0-4 ATS as dogs
of less than seven points this season. Tampa shines as dogs against division
opponents with a losing record, going 9-2-1 ATS – including 5-0 ATS from
Game Ten out. With the Bucs owning the better ground game, we’ll fade Sara
Lee in her non-desirous role today.

CHICAGO over St. Louis by 6
Funny, but if quarterbacks in this league were paid by their ability to turn
profi ts on the fi eld (read: beat the spread), Jay Cutler would be living on food
stamps… as 1 in 8 Americans do today. Cutler only wishes his INT-to-TD ratio
was 1-to-8 (it’s 20-to-16) as he continues to kill drive after drive with costly
picks. Not surprising, Cutler is a bonafi de money burner as a starting QB in the
NFL, going 14-33-1 ATS in all games, including 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of
two or more points. Do you want any of that? We didn’t think so. Especially
not with the Rams’ 12-0 SU and ATS record against teams off three losses
in their last three games – if the last loss was by double-digits! Like a hungry
stomach, this games says ‘feed me.’

San Diego over CLEVELAND by 14
After a dismal 2-3 start, the Chargers are plugged-in and sparks are fl ying as
they enter today’s contest on a six-game win skein, averaging more than 31
PPG in the process. Not exactly what the listless Browns want to hear, a squad
that is 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS the last two seasons in games it has allowed 28
or more points. Making matters worse, the Bolts are 17-2 ATS as December
favorites against losing teams off a loss. The Browns’ fl ickering ray of hope
is their 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS mark at home against .666 or greater opposition
the last three seasons. However, Cleveland’s offense has generated 200 or less
yards in EIGHT games this season and the team is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight
double-digit dog roles. Suicide Pool survivors note: the Browns are 1-34 SU as
double-digit dogs in its expansion franchise history. Knowing that, we’re sure
San Diego is all charged up.

San Francisco over SEATTLE by 1
The Niners showed a lot of grit and determination in last week’s 20-3 win over
Jacksonville. After dropping fi ve of their previous six games, they needed a
win like a proofreader needs toothpicks in the signing off on the new Health
Care Bill. The line in this contest will dictate our stance as, simply put, Frisco
is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog under Mike Singletary. They are also 7-0 ATS as division
road dogs of nine or less points. The problem, though, is the Niners enter
today’s game having been outgained in six of their last seven contests – hardly
a ringing endorsement for a team in a win situation on the road. With Seattle
1-13 ATS as a division favorite off a division win, and also 1-9 ATS at home
with revenge against a losing team, we’ll shop till we drop looking for a point
or two.

ARIZONA over Minnesota by 6
When a team is as white-hot as the Vikings, we learn to rely on the cunning
of our database to uncover heat shields to take into battle in games like this.
For openers, NFL road teams that have allowed 10 points or less in each of
its last three games are 6-15-1 ATS if they are off a SU and ATS win. Not bad.
Then there is the fact that road favorites off three home games are 11-26-1
ATS from game Ten out. Pretty good. Finally, road favorites off back-to-back
wins in which they scored 30 or more points and allowed 10 or less points in
each game are 2-10 ATS. That’s a heavy toll to pay for the price of success,
wouldn’t you agree? Finally, coming to the rescue is the fact that Super Bowl
losers, home off a loss versus a non-division opponent off back-to-back SU and
ATS wins, are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS since 1980. If Kurt Warner returns tonight,
we’ll don the mask, grab our shields, and head off to the wars. Hoo-rah!

NY GIANTS over Dallas by 1
The G-Men have fallen and they can’t get up. A 1-5 slide makes a seasonopening
5-0 start a distant memory. Complicating matters is a Dallas squad
that appears to be back on track with six wins in its last seven games and one
that will be looking to avoid a sweep in this series for the fi rst time since 2004.
For the Boys to carry out the task they will need to overcome a 1-7 ATS road
mark in December versus an opponent off a double-digit loss and a 2-8 ATS
overall mark in their last 10 road games in December. Complicating matters
for the Giants is a nagging heel injury for QB Eli Manning. Until we lean more
on his status, we’ll take a seat on the sideline and let you puzzle over the
crestfallen Giants.

New England over MIAMI by 10
If you are an NFL player you probably won’t want to be wearing a
Dolphins’ jersey this week. Not with Bill Belichick’s bunch reeling off its
21-point Monday night loss at New Orleans. They head to South Beach this
afternoon knowing they are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games
off a double-digit loss. In addition, Belichick is also a mind-boggling 16-1
ATS as a favorite versus an opponent off a division loss in his NFL career
as a head coach. Toss in the Pats’ 8-0 ATS mark as division road chalk of
four or more points and you get the drift. Miami is about to be exposed,
having been outgained in fi ve of its six games since its Bye Week. At just
4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games in December, the Fish fi gure to get
fi lleted here today.

5* BEST BET
The Ravens’ Sunday night win over the Big Ben-less Steelers comes
with a price, and the bill collector is stationed in Green Bay this week.
Aside from Baltimore’s 1-4 SU and ATS record after the Steelers when
facing winning teams, they face the ‘Mike Tomlin’ factor head-on in
this fray. That’s because teams are 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS in games after
facing Tomlin’s troops, including 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS for AFC North
teams. Amazingly, like Houston, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight
games in The Stats, with the only loss by four yards to the Vikings. The
Cheeseheads are also 9-1 ATS in December home games with a .500 or
greater record when off back-to-back wins. The clincher comes from our
database as it tells us to: Play On any Monday night non-division home
dog or favorite of fi ve or less points off a road win. That’s because these
teams are 20-7 SU and ATS, including 13-2 SU and ATS if they are off
a win of more than seven points. You know what to do in this Cheese
fondue special

LOGICAL APPROACH

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: RUTGERS + 2 ½ over West Virginia - This series has
been one of the most one sided in college football over the past two decades with West Virginia
winning 14 in a row since Rutgers' last win in 1994! But for virtually this entire span WVU has
clearly been the better team and have been favored in every meeting. Rutgers has improved
greatly over the past few seasons and talentwise is now on a par with WVU. This is actually the
smallest amount by which WVU has been favored since that last Rutgers win. The Mountaineers
are off of their dramatic last second win over arch rival Pitt last week while Rutgers rebounded
from their shocking loss at Syracuse with a solid 20 point win at Louisville. WVU has the better
offense while Rutgers has a slight edge on defense. Rutgers has excelled at avoiding turnovers all
season and creating them on defense. The emotional and intangible edges lay with the host as
they seek to end a decade and a half of frustration. Both teams are 8-3 and headed to Bowls.
Rutgers wins 23-16.

Other Featured College Selections

Central Michigan - 11 ½ over Ohio U (MAC Championship Game at Detroit, MI - Friday) -
CMU was clearly the best team in the MAC, going 8-0 in conference play (7-1 ATS) and
winning by an average of 23 points per game. Ohio U convincingly won last week's
showdown with Temple to advance to this game and the Bobcats were a solid 7-1 in
conference play (6-2) but were not nearly as dominating as CMU, winning by just 8 ppg.
CMU has most of the edges in this game including experience, better stats on both sides of
the football, recent head to head success and the better QB. Both teams were 2-2 in
non-MAC play with CMU winning at Michigan State but losing at Arizona and Boston
College. Ohio lost at home to UConn and at Tennessee but won by just 1 point at North
Texas. In 2006 CMU defeated Ohio U in this game 31-10 as 3.5 point favorites and won last
season at Ohio 31-28, pushing as a 3 point choice. This is a much bigger line to cover but
CMU is much stronger than in those recent meetings while Ohio is at pretty much the same
level. Central Michigan wins 33-16.

ILLINOIS - 3 over Fresno State - This was supposed to be a tuneup for Illinois following an
early end to the Big 10 season and keeping them fresher for their upcoming Bowl game.
Only problem is that the Illini underachieved this season and at 3-8 this game ends their
season and there will be no Bowl. To be fair, Illinois did play better down the stretch, going
2-2 and putting forth a solid effort in last week's loss at unbeaten Cincinnati. Fresno is 7-4
and will be headed to a Bowl. Their level of interest here is questionable although they did
travel well earlier this season, losing close games at the aforementioned Cincinnati as well
as at Wisconsin in OT. Illinois plays in the much tougher Big 10 and although Fresno was
6-2 in WAC play both losses came in one sided losses to the WAC's top two teams, Boise
State and Nevada. Normally this would be a spot to play Fresno but usually they'd be the
underdog. Given Illinois' better play down the stretch and a desire to send their seniors out
on a winning note, the Illini should play to their potential. Illinois wins 31-23.

Alabama + 6 over Florida (SEC Championship Game at Atlanta, GA) - This is the matchup
that's been expected since last season's meeting when Florida beat 'Bama 31-20 to end
Alabama's unbeaten season and advance to the BCS Title game. The stakes are the same
this season only now BOTH teams are 12-0. Each team had close calls this season with
Florida nearly losing at home to Arkansas in mid season and Alabama needing a late
comeback last week to edge arch rival Auburn. Both teams feasted on non-SEC foes with
Alabama's best outside win being their opening day demolition of Virginia Tech while
Florida's best non-SEC win was last week over beleaguered Florida State. Both teams are
outstanding on defense, ranking #1 and #3 nationally. Florida has been slightly better on
offense with record setting QB Tebow but the Gator offense is down from last season.
Alabama performed slightly better versus expectations in conference play with a 5-3 ATS
mark. Florida was just 2-5-1 ATS vs SEC foes. Both teams are talented, deep and well
coached. There's really very little difference between them. Alabama does have the revenge
motive and underdog mentality on its side. Prior to last season's SEC Title game Alabama
had covered 5 straight vs Florida dating back to 1998 (3-2 straight up). The points are
attractive with an upset quite possible. Alabama wins 20-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
Oregon State + 10 over OREGON [1] W. KENTUCKY + 7 over Arkansas State [1]
Cincinnati + 1 over PITTSBURGH Arizona + 7 over USC
Fla Atlantic - 1 over FLA INTERNATIONAL EAST CAROLINA + 2 over Houston [2]

The Rest (Leans)
South Florida + 7 over CONNECTICUT LOUISIANA TECH - 18 ½ over San Jose State
New Mexico State + 49 over BOISE STATE WASHINGTON + 7 over California
HAWAII + 11 over Wisconsin Georgia Tech - 1 over Clemson [3]
Texas - 14 over Nebraska [4]

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SEATTLE Pick 'em over San Francisco - Seattle is in a
favorable situation, returning home following a 3 game road trip, capped by a satisfying win
over lowly St Louis. It was the Seahawks' first road win of the season. They are 3-2 at home
and seek to avenge a 23-10 week two loss at San Francisco. The 49ers have won just once
in 5 road games and that came in week one at Arizona. They were competitive in 3 of the
losses but were unable to hold second half leads. The 49ers have faint Wild Card hopes at
5-6 but a Seattle win would have the teams tied with 5-7 records. When healthy Seattle has
the much better offense and the 'Hawks are as healthy now as they've been most of the
season. These teams are quite similar in many statistical categories. Neither team has been
able to rush the ball well on offense. Both teams are pretty average defensively. Seattle
does have a solid QB edge with Hasselbeck vs Smith and that should be the difference
between two evenly matched teams. Seattle wins 27-20.

Other Featured NFL Selections

CINCINNATI - 13 over Detroit - The Bengals are closing in on a Divisional title but only one of
their 8 wins has been by more than 10 points. Conversely, 7 of Detroit's 9 losses have been by at
least a dozen points so something must give. Cincinnati has held their last 7 foes to under 100
yards rushing and will face a rookie QB in Detroit's Stafford. The Lions are - 7 in turnover margin
over their last 4 games and barely showed up in their Turkey Day home loss to Green Bay.
Cincinnati's been winning with defense. The turnaround began last season. Despite starting 0-8
they did not quit and ended the season with 3 straight wins. Although they came against a trio of
weak teams, Cincy allowed just 19 total points, a sign that pointed to potential improvement in
2009. Now Cincinnati's allowed the fewest points in the NFL through 11 games. After last week's
dull effort vs. Cleveland, expect a much better showing from the offense. Cincinnati wins handily,
27-6.

CHICAGO - 9 over St Louis - The 1-10 Rams failed to take advantage of a very favorable situation
last week when they fell at home to Seattle, a team that had been badly outplayed in losing all 5
of their previous road games. Following a Bye and 3 straight home games the Rams now take to
the road for the first time in over a month. Chicago's season is rapidly deteriorating and at 4-7 their
Playoff hopes are all but gone following a 3-1 start. QB Cutler has failed to live up to billing and
the running game has been a bust. The Rams are now being led by backup QB Boller who had
an undistinguished career in Baltimore. The Bears have played a tough schedule and against
teams similar to the Rams they routed Detroit and Cleveland by a combined 78-30. Although the
Rams' lone win came on the road in Detroit and they were competitive in losses at both
Washington and Jacksonville, St Louis was shut out in losses at Seattle and San Francisco, teams
pretty much on a par with the Bears. It may not be pretty but it should be a convincing win.
Chicago wins 27-13.

GREEN BAY - 3 over Baltimore (Monday Night) - Green Bay has won 3 straight and now
controls an NFC Wild Card at 7-4. Baltimore's OT win over Pittsburgh last week got the
Ravens to 6-5 and in contention for an AFC Wild Card, making this a game with significant
Playoff implications. Baltimore has struggled on offense over the past month, failing to top
20 points in any of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in 5 of their first 7. The
Packers have done a better job of protecting QB Rodgers the past two weeks, allowing just
3 sacks after giving up 41 in their first 9 games. Green Bay has the NFL's top ranked
defense, allowing just 282 yards per game while also having the # 6 offense. The Packers
also lead the league by having lost just 10 turnovers all season and the defense is # 2 in
takeaways. Baltimore struggled more than expected last week in their physical OT win over
Pittsburgh. And this season teams are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 ATS after playing the
Steelers with 5 of the losses by double digits. Green Bay wins 27-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
PITTSBURGH - 14 * over Oakland Houston Pick 'em over JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS San Diego - 12 ½ over CLEVELAND
Minnesota - 3 * over ARIZONA N Y GIANTS + 2 over Dallas

The Rest (Leans)
N Y Jets - 3 over BUFFALO [1] KANSAS CITY + 4 ½ over Denver
ATLANTA + 4 ½ over Philadelphia WASHINGTON + 9 over New Orleans
CAROLINA - 6 over Tampa Bay New England - 6 over MIAMI

Best of the NFL Totals
N Y Jets/Buffalo UNDER 37 Denver/Kansas City OVER 38
Houston/Jacksonville OVER 46 Detroit/Cincinnati UNDER 42
Tampa Bay/Carolina UNDER 41 San Francisco/Seattle OVER 41

POINTWISE

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Ford Field, Detroit
Central Michigan 43 - Ohio U 24 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Another super showdown,
as Ohio QB Scott in off 5 TD showing in upset of Temple (20½ pt cover), with QB
Scott at 53-of-77 last 3 wks (5 TDs LW). But LeFevour (71%, 25/5) now owns
just about all MAC passing stats, & Chips are the epitome of consistency. Again.

SATURDAY

CONNECTICUT 31 - South Florida 20 - (8:00) -- Misleading final in 56-31 win
for UConn LW (2 TDs in final 0:47), with 489-377 yd deficit. Huskies allowing
551 ypg last 3, despite 9-1-1 ATS run. Bulls from 5-0 start to current 7-4 log,
losing last 2 RGs by combined 72-14 score. And only 6-of-16 for Daniels LW.

RUTGERS 24 - West Virginia 20 - (12:00) -- From 213-26 RY deficit to 239-48
RY edge for Knights last 2 wks (31-13 loss, 34-14 win). Only 88 RYpg prior 5
games, but TDs in first 4 possessions vs L'Ville. Mounties beat Pitt on final
play, but just 1 "O" TD (88-yd Devine run), & averaging just 19 ppg last 4 tilts.

ILLINOIS 34 - Fresno State 33 - (12:30) -- Note: these 2 are allowing an exact
same 400 ypg. No Mathews (149 RYpg) for Fresno of late, but visitor is 11-3
ATS in Bulldog games. Juice: 3 TD passes vs Cincy, & Illini at 36 ppg 3 of 4.

LOUISIANA TECH 48 - San Jose State 7 - (2:00) -- Bulldogs' 3-8 record is a
joke. Are +15 ppg ATS at home, running for 268 ypg in lined hosters, with
Porter & Jenkins (16/5) leading that "O". Spartans off first LG win since '08
(FG in last 0:34), & have a 158-46 pt deficit last 5 outings. Can't stop the run.

BOISE STATE 63 - New Mexico State 0 - (3:00) -- One of largest spreads ever.
Ags (224-46 pt deficit last 6 gms) on 6-game slide, with the worst "O" in the
nation. Boise QB Moore: 38/3, but Broncs just +2, +7, -2 pts ATS last 3 HGs.

Arizona 24 - SO CALIFORNIA 20 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Just a 14-yd edge for Troy
in 28-7 win over Ucla, & McKnight hurt again (thigh). Now minus 89½ pts vs
line last 10 outings. 'Cats in off 3 straight drainers, but have the edges in just
about all categories, including QB (Foles: 17/7). Enough left in tank for upset?

California 30 - WASHINGTON 17 - (6:30) -- Vareen for Best has worked out for
Bears (193 RYs & 3 TDs at Stanford), Riley a decent 16/6, & Cal +25 pts ATS
in last 3 RGs. Huskies just 2-6 SU since upset of USC, & were at 122 RYpg,
before 265 vs hapless WashSt. Locker (57%) simply can't do it all. Bear call.

PITTSBURGH 37 - Cincinnati 33 - (12:00) -- Has all the makings of a classic.
Pitt just 2 plays from 11-0 (lost on final play LW), at 35.1 ppg in LGs, with
1,446 RYs from Lewis, & Stull 19/6. Perfect 'Cats allowing 34 ppg last 3, but
Pike off 399 PY, 6 TD effort. Cincy won its last 2 BigEast tilts by just 3 & 2 pts.
Wisconsin 38 - HAWAII 31 - (11:30 - ESPN) -- Moniz: 366 PYs, 3 TDs in return.
HI now +53½ pts ATS last 5 games. Rested Badgers do it both overland (198
RYpg) & overhead (Tolzien: 6 TD passes last 2 gms). Could be a barnburner.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

Houston 44 - EAST CAROLINA 30 - (12:00 - ESPN) -- Explosive Coogs just
keep on doing it. At 48.3 ppg last 7 outings, with Keenum now 38/6 & 71%.
Check 59 pts & 465 yds in 1st half LW. Pirates 5 pts from 8-0 ATS run, but
have topped 176 RYs just twice, & rank disastrous 85th in passing "D". Coogs!

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Florida 27 - Alabama 20 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Second straight yr that 'Bama has
entered this one at 12-0. A spectacular 476-196 pt edge in last 16 gms, despite
LW's anomaly. But Gators (22 straight wins) their match, defensively, & cannot
overstate Tebow's leadership (17/5, 5 TDs LW, etc). And Ingram is now hurting.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

Georgia Tech 33 - Clemson 24 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Both teams must regroup off
terrible showings, with 8-gm & 6-gm runs snapped. Tech was at 366 RYpg prior
6 games, before just 205, in 30-24 loss to Ga. Tigers were also posting big RY
numbers, but only 90 RYpg last 2 outings. Clemson is a notorious streak team.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP @ Cowboys Stadium, Arlington

Texas 40 - NEBRASKA 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Amazing that these 2 games are
held at same time. 'Husker "D" has been superb (10.3 ppg last 6, holding 6 of
last 10 foes <100 RYs). But 82nd "O" cannot approach 'Horn explosiveness, we
can't forget Steers' 70-3 romp in last league title game. McCoy (27/9) leads rout.

ADDED GAMES

Arkansas St 31 - WESTERN KY 10 Fla Atlantic 28 - Fla International 24