Newsletters 12/3 - 12/8

Power Sweep

4* Florida 41-17
3* Tulsa 47-20
2* Troy 34-17

Underdog, Pittsburg +3 27-17

4* Arizona 41-17
3* New England 30-14
2* 49's + 23 (+) - 24
2* Tenn. 27-3

3* Browns U37
3* Eagles U44
3* Rams O49
2* Vikings O41
2* Cowboys U41

Nellys Greensheet
RATING 3 TULSA (-13½) over East Carolina
RATING 2 BALL STATE (-14½) over Buffalo
RATING 1 ALABAMA (+10) over Florida

UL-LAFAYETTE (-4½) Middle Tennessee St 6:00 PM
UL-Lafayette could have a significant edge on the ground in this
match-up, averaging over 170 more yards per game rushing, as ULL
is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Both Sun Belt
squads are 5-6 on the season, so bowl eligibility is a possibility
though an actual bowl invite would be unlikely for the winner. Still
finishing .500 would be an accomplishment for either team as both
had losing records last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns rushed for 376
yards to win in Murfreesboro last season and UL-L has had success
as a favorite, while winning and covering in three of four home
games this season. The road team has actually won four of the last
five in this series and this could be a key revenge game for MTSU
after blowing a lead in last year’s game. These teams have finished
the season heading in opposite directions as MTSU has won three
straight games and UL-L has lost three in a row. The Blue Raiders
have a young team that has shown improvement and has been
playing better late in the year. MTSU BY 7

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008
RUTGERS (-11½) Louisville 6:45 PM

The home team has won and covered each of the past three years
of this series, although Rutgers has always been the underdog until
this season. After an awful start to the season the Scarlet Knights
have now won five consecutive games, while Louisville has now
dropped four in a row S/U and ATS. Louisville should have a rushing
edge in this match-up as the Cardinals have been much more
productive on the ground this season and also feature strong
numbers against the run but Rutgers should have success in the air.
Rutgers is allowing just 18 points per game and this is a team that
has a great deal of momentum behind a veteran squad closing out
the season. Louisville can reach 6-6 with a win but the Cardinals
may be emotionally spent after playing the top three teams in the
Big East the last three games. Last season Rutgers led by 18 in the
second half against Louisville but lost by three so this will be a key
game for the coaching staff and the Knights will enter the
postseason as a dangerous bowl team. RUTGERS BY 17

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2008

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP at Detroit, MI
Ball State (-14½) Buffalo 7:00 PM

The Cardinals look to finish off a historic undefeated season with the
MAC title and winning this game would give the Cardinals a return
trip to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl, an unfortunate underwhelming
reward given the current bowl system and tie-ins. The schedule has
not justified a higher ranking for Ball State but they have been an
impressive team, coming up big late in the year against the top
competition in the conference. Buffalo has been a great story this
season and winning five in row late in the year earned this spot, as
champion of the much weaker MAC East division. The Bulls played
a stronger overall schedule this season but statistically these teams
are not close. Buffalo averages fewer yards per game than the
defense allows while Ball State is out-scoring opponents by nearly
three touchdowns per game on average. Last season Ball State
beat Buffalo 49-14, out-gaining the Bulls 507-219. This will be a
neutral site game but the Cardinals have won on the road in
primetime games in two of their final three games. This Ball State
team also gained some valuable experience playing in a bowl game
last season so the extra attention of a championship game should
not be a problem. BALL STATE BY 21

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2008

Navy (-11) Army at Philadelphia, PA 11:00 AM
The Midshipmen have won six of the last eight games and are
locked into a bowl game. This rivalry game has been won by Navy
six consecutive years and Navy is 9-2 ATS in the last eleven
meetings. Last year Navy dominated with a 38-3 victory although the
offense had just 294 yards. Navy is the top rushing team in the
nation, averaging 292 yards per game but the defense has allowed
more yards than the offense has gained on the season despite the
7-4 record. Army is also one of the top rushing teams in the nation
and the defense has allowed fewer yards and points on the year.
The difference between these teams has been turnovers as Navy
owns one of the top turnover margins in the nation, while Army is
nearly the nation’s worst in that category. Army has lost three games
in a row and four of the last five but each of the last five opponents
will be in a bowl game. The statis tics do not always add up for Navy
but this team finds ways to win and controls the line of scrimmage.
Navy has dominated this series recently and should deliver another
win this week to close out another fine season. NAVY BY 17

CONNECTICUT (-2) Pittsburgh 11:00 AM
The Huskies have quietly gone 7-4 and two conference losses came
by a combined margin of just six points. Connecticut has the top
defensive numbers in the Big East, allowing only 286 yards per
game. Pittsburgh has had a strong season at 8-3 but the Panthers
have still been a bit of a disappointment. Statistically Pittsburgh
looks like a very mediocre team despite several talented skill players
on the roster and Pittsburgh has caught some breaks with four wins
by less than a touchdown. Connecticut has had a lot of time to
prepare for this game and the Huskies have beat Pittsburgh each of
the last two years, last year benefiting from turnovers. After last
week’s big win over West Virginia this could be a tough follow-up for
the Panthers in a historically difficult venue. The Panthers are not in
position to significantly upgrade its bowl status and this will be a
bigger game for Connecticut. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road in
recent years and has never won in this stadium. Connecticut is a
continuously underrated team and the Huskies defense should
perform well this week. CONNECTICUT BY 7

WEST VIRGINIA (-7) South Florida 2:30 PM
This game was expected to be for the Big East title as these teams
were clear front-runners in early season projections. Both teams will
play in bowl games but both have to be considered among the most
disappointing teams in the nation. West Virginia’s loss last week
ended any remote conference title hopes and the offense has
averaged nearly 100 yards less per game versus last season’s
team. South Florida has won the last two meetings including last
season against then #5 and undefeated West Virginia. The Bulls
were severely out-gained in that game but USF has had success in
slowing down the run, allowing just 93 yards per game on the
ground this season. Turnovers have been an Achilles Heel for the
Bulls as statistically South Florida appears to have one of the best
defenses in the nation as well as a productive balanced offense.
West Virginia is allowing just 16 points per game but the defense
has allowed considerably more yards on the year. South Florida has
been an inconsistent team that has not played well in recent weeks
so it is hard to expect the Bulls to win on the road. WV BY 13

CALIFORNIA (-33½) Washington 2:00 PM
The misery can finally end for Washington but there has to be some
motivation to avoid the winless season. California can not really
improve its bowl stock with a win but this actually is a revenge game
after losing 37-23 last season in Seattle. Cal is 6-0 S/U and ATS this
season and avoiding another poor finish to the season should be a
priority for the Bears. Cal has been a great ATS team this season at
8-3 while Washington has only covered once all season long. The
California offense has not been exceptionally productive this
season, averaging significantly less yardage per game than any of
the past five seasons. The Washington defense has been horrible
this season, allowing 37 points per game but California may not
have enough production to cover such a huge spot. No one feels
great about backing a winless team but the value is there and Cal
has averaged just 32 points per game while surrendering at least 14
points in seven straight games. CAL BY 24

Usc (-30) UCLA 3:30 PM
Everything has fallen together for USC and the Trojans still have an
outside shot at finding the BCS championship game but at worst can
lock up a Rose Bowl spot with a win this week. UCLA has
historically been an incredible home underdog and this situation is
eerily similar to 2006 when USC had lost to only Oregon State
before being upset against UCLA at the end of the year and getting
knocked out of the BCS championship picture. USC owns incredibly
dominant numbers on defense, allowing just fewer than eight points
per game and only 210 yards per game. UCLA has solid defensive
numbers but offense has struggled this season. The Bruins have
one of the worst turnover margins in the nation but the road team
has won each of the last three meetings. Last season USC won just
24-7 but completely dominated the yardage numbers. USC is just 2-
7 ATS in the last nine meetings on the road in this series and being
in a position where the Trojans are at the mercy of voters makes for
some distractions this week. USC BY 21

ARIZONA (-10½) Arizona State 7:00 PM
The Sun Devils have been one of the most disappointing teams in
the nation as many expected this team to contend for the Pac-10
title. The Wildcats have been accustomed to disappointing seasons
but this year Arizona broke through to reach bowl eligibility for the
first time since 1998. Arizona is averaging 37 points scored per
game but those numbers are a bit inflated based on a few blowout
wins. The Wildcats have now lost three of the last four games and
only one win this season came against a winning team. Arizona
State has plenty to play for as a three-game win streak quietly has
the Sun Devils back in the mix for a possible bowl game. The Sun
Devil defense has allowed just 28 points in the last three games and
ASU has won each of the last three meetings in this series by
narrow margins. There is more at stake for Arizona State and given
the close recent history of this series the underdog looks promising
as these teams have had very similar results. ASU BY 3

Cincinnati (-7½) HAWAII 10:30 PM
The Bearcats have locked up the Big East title and a trip to the BCS.
This game is meaningless for Cincinnati and it is tough to envision a
focused effort coming off such a great moment for the program,
particularly taking the long trip to Hawaii. The Warriors have won the
games they needed to make a bowl appearance and Hawaii has
now won six of the last eight games while scoring over 33 points per
game over the last five weeks. Hawaii has won five of the last seven
home finales, typically playing major conference teams at the end of
the year. Hawaii is also 15-7 in the last 22 games as home
underdogs. Cincinnati lacks a great running game so this will not be
a match-up where the Bearcats can just pound away and expect to
be successful. Cincinnati has won five games by eight points or
fewer so blowouts have not been common. CINCY BY 6

TROY (-11) Arkansas State 6:00 PM
Troy can lock up the Sun Belt title with a win this week but this is a
big game for Arkansas State as well. The Red Wolves can force a
potential three-way tie for the Sun Belt title or even win the
conference outright if UL-Lafayette should lose earlier in the week.
Troy shutout Arkansas State last season but historically has
struggled in this series. Arkansas State owns superior rushing
numbers and the defensive statistics are pretty close between these
teams. Arkansas State has just had 12 turnovers on the season, one
of the lowest numbers in the nation and a strong rushing team that
takes care of the ball could have upset potential. Arkansas State can
overcome a tough home field and play well. TROY BY 4

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-7) W. Kentucky 6:00 PM
Last week’s rivalry game loss will likely take a toll for the Panthers
this week. FIU lost 57-50 in overtime against Florida Atlantic in a
game where the Panthers blew a 14-point lead in the final three
minutes. This is the final transition game for Western Kentucky as
the Hilltoppers will be a full Sun Belt member next season. Western
Kentucky has not been able to beat any current Sun Belt teams this
season but most games have been competitive as defense has
been solid. Florida International has four wins on the season but the
Panthers are in a tough spot this week and can no longer reach
.500. These teams played a very close game in 2005 and this may
be Western’s best shot for a FBS win. FIU BY 10

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP at Tulsa, OK
TULSA (-13½) East Carolina 11:00 AM
It was a struggle but Tulsa locked up a 7-1 conference record and
hosts the championship game by virtue of the head-to-head win over
Rice. These teams did not meet in the regular season but last
season Tulsa beat ECU 31-10. Tulsa played in this game last
season but lost and this will be a great opportunity, playing at home
where the Golden Hurricane has dominated this season. Tulsa has
outscored opponents 363-137 in six home games this season,
covering in all five lined games. East Carolina grabbed headlines
early in the year but in reality won this division by default as no other
team finished above .500 in conference play. The Pirates won four
conference games by just four points or less including two in OT, so
the 8-4 record could easily have been worse. The East Carolina
offense is averaging just 23 points per game and although the
defense has the best numbers in C-USA the Pirates have been
vulnerable against strong passing teams. TULSA BY 21

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP at Tampa, FL
Virginia Tech (PK) Boston College 3:00 PM
These teams met last season in the ACC championship and
although neither appears to be as strong as last season both
managed to pull out division wins through tie-breakers in the tightly
packed ACC. Boston College won the regular season meeting 28-23
despite a big edge on the ground for the Hokies. Despite losing its
QB and facing a tough closing schedule BC rallied off four
consecutive wins. It is no coincidence that the two championship
representatives feature the top two defenses in the ACC. Virginia
Tech has not topped 23 points scored in any of the last six games
and it will be tough for the Hokies to put up big numbers in this
match-up as the BC rush defense is among the best in the nation.
Boston College has had great success in this series and the Hokies
have not been strong favorites. Look for BC to find a way to win and
take the championship this season. BC BY 3

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP at Atlanta, GA
Florida (-10) Alabama 3:00 PM
Both teams continue to cruise as Alabama completed an undefeated
regular season and Florida has just a single one-point loss on the
resume. Florida owns the top turnover margin in the nation which
has helped pad leads in several games and the Gators have
outscored opponents by an average of 24 points per game. The
Alabama defense has been dominant this season, allowing just 11½
points per game and less than 250 yards per game. The Alabama
offense is not as flashy and does not put up huge numbers , but the
Tide take great care of the ball and dominate the line of scrimmage.
The winner of this game will surely make a trip to the BCS
championship game and give the SEC a shot at a third consecutive
title. The Gators are heavy favorites here based the big numbers
and the incredible ATS record but Alabama has yet to be beaten
and the Tide should not be doubted here. Alabama has covered in
each of the last five meetings and has proven that they can win
close games with several narrow wins this season. ALABAMA BY 3

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP at Kansas City, MO
Oklahoma (-15½) Missouri 7:00 PM
The Tigers were a bit flat last week having already clinched this spot
and having played in this stadium last week could be an advantage
along with the already more favorable location. Missouri lost last
week despite an over 3-to-1 rushing advantage as early turnovers
dug a hole and a late Kansas rally provided the stunning upset late.
There will be significant distractions for Oklahoma as many will
question whether or not they deserve to be in this game and the
assumption that the Big 12 South winner will go to the BCS title
game could be dangerous as Missouri can score points in a hurry.
Oklahoma’s offense scored at will last week but the defense allowed
41 points as OSU went down the field with ease until a few late
turnovers created a misleading final margin. As much as Missouri’s
defense has been maligned the unit has better scoring defense
numbers than Oklahoma and the Sooners padded its stats playing
1-11 FCS Chattanooga and 0-11 Washington. Oklahoma allowed
over 30 points per game in Big 12 play and Missouri will score points
in this match-up. The Sooners should pull away but OU has a long
recent history of choking in these types of games. OU BY 10

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-4½) over Seattle
RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 ATLANTA (+3) over New Orleans
RATING 2 NY GIANTS (-9) over Philadelphia
RATING 1 KANSAS CITY (+9) over Denver

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland (43½) 7:15 PM
The Chargers have now lost five of the past six games with only a onepoint
win over Kansas City mixed in. In fairness the Chargers have
played close against quality teams in that span and have not lost by
double-digits in any game all season. San Diego has not been able to
close out games with several leads being taken away in the closing
minutes. The Chargers have covered in ten of the last eleven against
Oakland however and the Raiders offense has really struggled to
consistently score points. CHARGERS BY 13

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2008
INDIANAPOLIS (-13½) Cincinnati (42½) 12:00 PM
The Bengals have really struggled on offense in recent weeks, scoring
just 26 points in the last three games. Those games came against three
of the best defenses in the league however and the Bengals might have
more success against the Colts. Indianapolis has won five consecutive
games but the largest margin of victory was just six points. The Colts
have covered in just one of five home games this season and the
Bengals might be able to hang around this week. COLTS BY 7

CHICAGO (NL) Jacksonville 12:00 PM
The Jaguars face a short week coming off Monday ’s game and the
Bears face some pressure, falling a game back in the NFC North
standings after last week’s loss. Chicago has had several great
defensive games and several lousy efforts so it is hard to figure which
team will show up. Cold weather in Chicago could be a problem for the
Jaguars and the Bears need this win more. BEARS BY 7

GREEN BAY (NL) Houston 12:00 PM
The Packers face long odds in the NFC North despite going 13-3 last
season for a commanding division win. Many point to the QB change as
the difference but the defense has not been as strong and the running
game that got on a roll late last year has not shown up outside of a few
games. The Texans are a better team than the record indicates but a
tough schedule dug an early hole and the defense has not been able to
get key stops. The Packers should have an edge in this match-up and
can stay alive in the division race. PACKERS BY 7

TENNESSEE (-13½) Cleveland (37½) 12:00 PM
The Browns appear to be down to QB Dorsey and a rough season
continues in Cleveland with another narrow loss. The Titans bounced
back in a big way last week to crush Detroit but that was the first doubledigit
win in the last five weeks for Tennessee. This line will be inflated
with the QB situation but the Cleveland defense has shown some
improvement in recent weeks and Tennessee has been held to 24 or
fewer points in four of the last five. TITANS BY 10

Minnesota (-9½) DETROIT 12:00 PM
Although the Vikings have a lot of talented players they have the feel of
a team that could lose to a 0-12 team. Minnesota has had horrible
numbers in recent years as a road favorite and Minnesota has caught
good fortune in several wins this season. Detroit is a risky team to back
but this will be the best opportunity to break the streak and Lions
probably should have beat Minnesota when the teams met earlier this
season, hurt significantly by a questionable late penalty. VIKINGS BY 3

BALTIMORE (NL) Washington 7:15 PM
The Ravens continue to roll with another impressive win last week.
Baltimore has won and covered in four of five home games this season.
Washington has lost three of the last four games to fall out of the playoff
picture this week and with three of the last four on the road the Redskins
appear to be likely to miss out. The Baltimore defense has its swagger
back, averaging just 253 yards allowed per game with equally
impressive numbers against the run and pass but Baltimore’s offense
has struggled. The impressive numbers in recent weeks were set-up by
the defense and Washington needs to win this game. REDSKINS BY 4

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) Philadelphia (44½) 12:00 PM
The Eagles stayed alive with a huge Thanksgiving win last week and this
will be the make-or-break game for the Philadelphia season. New York
won the first meeting by just five points but the game was not as close
as the final outcome. Although Philadelphia has had a few extra days to
ready for this game the Eagles have not proven reliable and the
mistakes on offense and the lack of a short-yardage running game has
been a major problem. New York continues to dominate, with seven
consecutive wins and covers in the last seven weeks. GIANTS BY 14

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Atlanta (52½) 12:00 PM
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL but New
Orleans becomes one-dimensional quickly and Atlanta dominated the
Saints the first time these teams met, just a month ago. The Saints have
not had great success at home in recent years and New Orleans
continues to be an overvalued team on the big score potential. The
Saints were lucky to cover last week and recent wins over Green Bay
and San Diego are not as impressive as once thought. FALCONS BY 3

New York Jets (-4) SAN FRANCISCO (44½) 3:05 PM
The Jets face long travel but after an ugly performance last week this
becomes a critical game for New York. San Francisco surprised the Bills
last week but ten points and a significant yardage disadvantage in the
game is not encouraging although QB Hill has managed to avoid killer
turnovers for the most part since taking over. New York is very good at
stopping the run and the Jets should be able to deliver despite facing
cross country travel. JETS BY 7

Buffalo (-1) Miami (42½) @Toronto, Canada 3:05 PM
The Bills lost QB Edwards last week and managed just three points on
350 yards. Buffalo is not a team that can win unless it creates some
scoring on defense or special teams. Miami pulled out another narrow
win over a losing team but the bottom line is that the Dolphins are
delivering victories and the schedule has set-up nicely for a strong finish.
Miami should have a more favorable situation than if this game was in
Buffalo and last week’s loss was emotionally crippling for a Bills team
that is now almost officially eliminated. DOLPHINS BY 3

DENVER (-9) Kansas City (47) 3:05 PM
The Broncos put up big numbers and capitalized on turnovers last week
for a huge win that essentially has locked up the division title. The
Broncos have been far from an impressive team however and the recent
records at home are incredibly bad with just two covers in the last 17 as
home favorites. Kansas City has shown some promise on offense in
recent weeks and the Chiefs beat Denver earlier this season. The
Broncos make too many mistakes and have too poor of a defense to
trust as a significant favorite. BRONCOS BY 3

ARIZONA (-13½) St. Louis (48½) 3:15 PM
The Cardinals have become complacent with the division locked up but
after back-to-back ugly losses against NFC East teams Arizona needs to
deliver a strong outing to get some momentum back. The Cardinals beat
the Rams badly a few weeks back but St. Louis should have a more
complete squad with key players back in action. If turnovers are avoided
the Rams can be a competitive team and Arizona has a history of poor
late season play when expectations grow. CARDS BY 7

PITTSBURGH (-3) Dallas (41½) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys can get back its status as an elite team with a win this
week but this is a critical game as the Cowboys would not be in the
playoffs if everything was settled right now. Pittsburgh delivered an
impressive win in a big game last week but Pittsburgh has not fared well
as a home favorite. The Dallas defense has stepped up in recent weeks
and the Steelers might get beat at their own game. COWBOYS BY 7

New England (-4½) SEATTLE (43) 3:05 PM
The Patriots knew QB Cassel would have some games like that but this
should be an opportunity for New England to get right back on track.
Seattle has not been competitive in many games this season and has
lost to two AFC East teams already this season. The great home field
edge has been lost in season that has gone wrong and New England
has not lost back-to-back games all year. PATRIOTS BY 14

MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2008
CAROLINA (-3) Tampa Bay (38) 7:35 PM
This is a huge game in the NFC South as the winner will have the inside
track to the playoffs and a likely #2 seed. Both teams needed late a late
rally last week but both teams continue to get the job done with solid
running games and good, opportunistic defense. The Panthers have not
lost at home this season and were soundly beat in Tampa Bay earlier
this year. Tampa Bay has struggled against mediocre teams despite the
four-game win streak and Carolina can take revenge. PANTHERS BY

Pointwise Football Dec. 3--8
College Key Selections
2--RUTGERS over Louisville 41-14
3--OKLAHOMA over Missouri 51-24
4--BALL STATE over Buffalo 45-20

THURSDAY
RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 14 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Five straight wins for Knights,
who are +68 pts ATS over that span, with a 181-70 pt edge, & Teel at 13 TDs in
last 4. Four straight losses for faltering Cards (14 TOs), losing their last RG by
28 pts ATS. Carpenter just 15/15 for the season. Revenge for LY's heartbreak.

FRIDAY
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Ford Field, Detroit
BALL STATE 45 - Buffalo 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning huge leaps UB
has taken under Gill. In off having 5-game run snapped. Willy: 22/5; Starks:
1,208 RYs; WR Roosevelt, etc. But perfect Cards own Bulls (Wise Points), &
have 506-125 RY edge last 2 gms. Davis (25/6); Lewis (1,570 RYs) do it again.

SATURDAY
Navy 27 - Army 24 - (12:00 - @ Philadelphia - CBS) -- Mids have had their way
with Cadets of late (2,126-572 RY edge last 6), but just 11 & 15 FDs for Navy
last 2 games, while allowing 230+ RYs in 3 of last 6 games, & ranking 70th on
"D". Army +80½ pts ATS last 8 games, with 1,106 RYs for Mooney last 7 tilts.
Pittsburgh 24 - CONNECTICUT 22 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Check Huskies' last 2
HGs: 26½ pt cover, & 19½ pt ATS loss. And have topped 168 RYs in just 1 of
last 6 games. Worth noting, as Pitt allowing <100 RYs in 3 of last 5 games.
Panthers at 32 ppg last 8, & McCoy in off career-high 183 RYs. To the wire.

WEST VIRGINIA 31 - South Florida 20 - (3:30 - ESPN2) -- First dog role for
Bulls in last 22 starts, & deservedly so, as they're averaging 14 ppg in last 3
outings, with Grothe just 15/12 for the year. Mounties were mauled LY, & in off
losing in final minute. Overland game is sporadic, but just can't pull SF lever.

CALIFORNIA 52 - Washington 7 - (3:00) -- Just 13, 11, 17 FDs for Bears in last
3 outings, but they are splendid at home (6-0 ATS lately). Check 7.6-3.3 ypr
edge over Stanford, which entered at 234 RYpg in previous 8 tilts. Swan song
for Willingham, as winless UW has allowed 40 ppg in its last 13 lined games.

SO CALIFORNIA 41 - Ucla 10 - (4:30 - ABC) -- No "O" TDs allowed by Bruins
in 34-9 loss to ArizSt. Entered that one off 260, 164, 216, 153 RY deficits in
previous 4 games. And Craft at 7/19 for the year. Won't compete here. USC
has 310-49 pt edge since its lone loss, & allowed just 4 FDs in wipeout of Irish.

ARIZONA 31 - Arizona State 10 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Yes, we know the series dog
has been "money", but Suns just can't move it. Managed 10 FDs, 21 RYs, &
122 TYs vs Ucla, & are at 62 RYpg eliminating Wash & WashSt. Rested &
balanced 'Cats own 26th best "D", & are averaging 38 ppg. Throw in revenge.

Cincinnati 41 - HAWAII 17 - (11:30) -- Cincy now BigEast champ, its first league
title since taking MissouriValley in 1964. Five straight wins, & in off 25-8 FD
edge. 'Bows off lackluster win over horrid WashSt, managing a 10-10 tie over
the last 3 quarters. C'mon! Can't run, & Alexander won't do much vs this "D".

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
TULSA 48 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00 - ESPN) -- Check resurgent Pirates' with
6 TDs in 53-21 blowout of Utep, after managing just 4 TDs in their previous 4
contests, & entered ranked 94th in rushing "O". Are premier RDs (14-4 ATS),
but note the 'Canes scoring 56, 56, 63, 77, 49, & 56 pts in covering their last 6
HGs. Check Johnson at 42 TD passes TY, & ECU has yet to cover on the road.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Virginia Tech 22 - Boston College 17 - (1:00 - ABC) -- These 2 meet for the
4th time in the last 2 years, with the Eagles taking both regular season games,
but the Hokies prevailing in LY's title match. Tech didn't manage an offensive TD
in their 1st meeting, & not the most explosive squad (#83 in scoring), but that "D"
still solid. BC also owns quality stop unit, but QB Davis iffy, & ditto Eagle run "O".

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Florida 38 - Alabama 24 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Elite squads at the absolute top of
their games. Gators have a 344-78 pt edge in their 7 lined games since loss to
OleMiss: +140½ pts ATS. Check LW's 260-yd edge at FlaSt in monsoon type
weather. Try 346 & 317 RYs vs SoCaro & FlaSt, with Tebow at 25/2. Top ranked
Tide also smoking: 5-0 ATS, with a 159-37 pt edge, & #3 "D". Can't buck Gators.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP @ Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Oklahoma 51 - Missouri 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Astounding! Only descriptive of
ongoing accomplishments of this Sooner squad. And incredible 59.5 ppg since
their loss to Texas, topping 60 pts their last 4 games. Bradford now 46/6, with
Okies ranking 19th in rushing. Pity Tigs, despite Daniel's 34/13 (75%), & 42 ppg
"O" in last 26 outings. But just 64 & 30 RYs in 2 of their 3 losses. Okies easily.

ADDED GAMES
Middle Tenn St 27 - LA-LAFAYETTE 17 TROY 35 - Arkansas St 17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 38 - Western Kentucky 24

NFL Key Selections

3--ARIZONA over St Louis 45-13
3--NEW YORK JETS over San Francisco 34-20
4--NEW ENGLAND over Seattle 30-17
5--MINNESOTA over Detroit 34-13
5--KANSAS CITY (+) over Denver 20-23

THURSDAY
SAN DIEGO 23 - Oakland 20 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Chargers 3 back of Broncos, with
4 to play, so just about done. In off putrid home performance vs Falcons, in which
they managed only 201 yds, & 13 FDs. Now under 100 RYs in 6 of last 8 outings,
with 9 of their games decided by a TD or less. Third straight HG, but it means
little, especially in light of the fact that the visitor has covered the last 5 games
involving the Raiders, by 70½ pts ATS. And note Oakland covering its last RG by
30 pts. We know that Chargers are 10-1 ATS vs the Raiders, but call for change.

SUNDAY
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- The NFL visitor has been golden
over the past month, but backing the anemic Bengals is asking too much. They
have a 1,206-645 yd deficit over the last 3 weeks, & are in off 11 & 6 FD efforts,
in 27-10 & 34-3 losses. And they've lost their last 2 RGs by a combined score
of 62-16. Indy has been no ball of fire, despite 5 straight wins, by 3, 4, 6, 3, 4
pts SU, with no offensive TDs, & just 14 FDs LW. But check 30 FDs in their
last HG. And Cincinnati is 6-12 ATS away off a SU loss of >13 pts. Colt call.

CHICAGO 24 - Jacksonville 23 - (1:00) -- So much for the "Monsters of the
Midway" label for the Bears' "D", as it has allowed 31 ppg in 5 of its last 6 tilts,
including Sunday's embarrassment at Minny. Just 10 FDs, with 3 INTs from
Orton. Same old story, regardless of who is over center. Thus, Chicago is one
back of the Vikes. Check a 27-26 ppg edge at home for the Bears this season,
which coincides with visitor success in J'Ville games: now on a 9-1 ATS streak.

GREEN BAY 34 - Houston 20 - (1:00) -- The Packers did just about everything
but win LW, as they dominated the Panthers, with 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd
edges, only to fall, 35-31. Check 24, 22, & 25 FDs for GreenBay over the past
3 weeks. And they did cover their previous 2 HGs by 21 & 30½ pts. They can't
afford another loss, & catching the Texans, not only off their Monday Nighter,
but in a division revenge sandwich, is nice. Pack is 21-11 as Dec host, while
McCarthy is 8-2 ATS vs 27 pts, thus a mild underdog call.

Minnesota 34 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- An 0-18 season seems almost inevitable,
as far as the Lions are concerned. Have won just 1 of their last 20 games on
the field, & that in the '07 stretch, while hosting the 4-12 Chiefs. Their latest
futility was witnessed by the entire nation, in a franchise-worst 37-pt loss to the
Titans. Check allowing 34 ppg in their last 18 games. And also check Minny
averaging 27 pts in its last 6 RGs. Visitor now 9-0 ATS in Detroit games. Ditto.

BALTIMORE 20 - Washington 19 - (8:15 - NBC)) -- Loved it! Balt was our top
NFL play LW, & ensuing 34-3 rout was enjoyable (24-pt cover): edges of 20-6
in FDs, & 451-155 in yds. Now a 70-10 pt edge in Ravens' last 2 tilts, holding
8 foes below 14 pts. 'Skins couldn't stay with the Giants (who can?), but they
also own a quality "D", holding 19 foes below 21 pts since LY. And the visitor is
8-0-1 ATS in Washington games, by 79½ pts. 'Skins are 10-1 ATS as dogs, off
being held below 10 pts, & playing a foe off a SU win. Mildest of underdog call.

NEW YORK GIANTS 30 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Superb display by McNabb
& Eagles in "must-win" setup vs Cards. Check 27-of-39 for 260 yds & 4/0 for
Donovan, in that 48-20 wipeout: 32-12 FD edge. Sure sweet after 6 TOs in
previous 6 quarters for McNabb. Giants continue to amaze. Now 16-2 ATS, &
15-1 SU. Averaging 34 ppg in their last 5 gms, with Eli at 539 PYs last 2 wks,
despite some personnel problems. Eagles are 0-7 ATS on division road off a
win, vs a foe off a pair of SU/ATS wins. And NY 21-7 ATS off DD division win.

NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 23 - (1:00) -- Falcons sure made a statement with
LW's rather easy win over the Chargers (348-201 yd edge), allowing just 13
FDs. Check Ryan at 13/7, & Turner at 237 RYs the past 2 weeks. Staying one
back of the Bucs & Panthers, so no letup. But before that win over slipping
SanDiego, Atlanta had allowed 28 ppg in 7 of their prior 8 RGs. So note that the
Saints, who are in a definite "must-win" setup, are averaging 36 ppg in their last
4 HGs, & covered their last 2 hosters by 24 & 21 pts. Brees leads revenge win.

New York Jets 34 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:05) -- Brett returns to the scene of
his '97 Super Bowl win, and it comes at just the right time, as NY in off shocker
of a setback, hosting the Broncos (25 pts, ATS). That loss snapped a 5-game
NY run, including road upsets of the Bills, Pats, & Titans. And even in that loss
to Denver, note Jones with 138 RYs (8.6 ypr). So, the Niners stand in the way
of the bounceback, & that assignment is hairy, to say the least. Check a deficit
of 350-195 yds in SF upset of the Bills, & a 30.5 ppg "D" in previous 8 outings.

BUFFALO 24 - Miami 23 - (4:04 - @ Toronto) -- Bills came from 54 pts to 3 in a
week. That's right, just a single FG vs SanFran's previously 28 ppg defense,
despite nearly a 100-yd overland edge, with Lynch at 134 yds (8.4 ypr). But
Edwards continues to struggle (10/10 for the season). Fish barely snuck by
the woeful Rams, managing a mere 16 FDs vs StLouis' 30th ranked "D". But
Miami didn't allow an offensive TD. Thus the dog is now 10-0 ATS in Dolphin
games by 135½ pts. Bills are 8-1 ATS in series, but that miss came this year.

DENVER 23 - Kansas City 20 - (4:05) -- Visitor, visitor, visitor. Only way to go
with these 2, at the moment. Broncos in off splendid win over the Jets (100-yd
edge), behind Cutler & Hillis, with that pushing the recent road edge to 5-0 ATS
in Denver games by 85 pts. So, Denver has a 3-game lead over the Chargers,
while KC enters on a 2-19 SU run. However, the Chiefs, who were our top NFL
Red Sheet play LW, have covered their last 3 RGs by 10, 14, & 10 pts, with the
visitor on a 16-6 ATS run in KC tilts. Denver 1-11 ATS in division off upset win.

ARIZONA 45- St Louis 13 - (4:15) -- Not the best spot for the Rams, who catch
the seething Cards off losses to the Giants & Eagles, managing just 23 & 45
RYs, with 4 INTs from Warner. So, StLouis is 0-for-2, in trying to clinch its
division. Enter the Rams, who have dropped 6 straight, with a 159-47 pt deficit
in their last 5 games, & who have dropped their last 3 division RGs by similar
scores of 48-19, 37-13, & 35-16. Bulger just 7/11 for the season. Arizona is
still at 32 ppg in its last 19 contests, & should take no prisoners in this clincher.

PITTSBURGH 26 - Dallas 20 - (4:15) -- Return of Romo doing wonders for the
'Boys, who have posted 35 & 34 pt totals the past 2 wks, after failing to top 14
pts in their previous 4 contests. Romo? Try 6/1. But also realize that it came
vs the Niners & Seahawks (combined 6-18 record). A bit tougher this time
around, as the Steelers in off a run of 30 unanswered pts in 33-10 rout of the
Pats. Have held 8 foes under 18 pts, & have a 467-yd edge in their last 3 tilts.
Pitt 25-11 ATS as a Dec HF, & Dallas a 2-11 RD vs an AFC opponent off a win.

New England 30 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Five turnovers (4 by Cassel) for the
normally efficient Pats in 33-10 drubbing at the hands of the Steelers. But they
have been masterful in regrouping, as they've covered all 4 previous games
following losses, including 31-pt & 21-pt covers in 2 of those 4. And check 30
FDs & 530 yds in their last RG. The Seahawks continue among the dregs, &
now stand at an unfathomable 2-10. Nary a TD at Dallas, with Hasselbeck at 6
INTs over the last 3 weeks. Pats are 11-1 ATS vs the NFC West. And another.

MONDAY
CAROLINA 20 - Tampa Bay 10 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 are tied atop the NFC
South. Panthers in off clipping Green Bay, 35-31, despite 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd
deficits. Check a career-high 4 TDs for DeAngelo in that one, & Delhomme is
finally cranking it up (33-of-52 last 2 games). Chalk is still 7-2-1 ATS in Carolina
games. Bucs have managed just 15 & 11 FDs the past 2 wks, but have won 4
straight, & have held 6 of 11 foes under 17 pts. Carolina has a 28-13 ppg edge at
home this year, & Tampa is 9-18 ATS on the Dec road. Yet another revenge call.

Thanks Blade for all your great info. I'm in a Pool on office-pools.com, Big$. Pick every game ATS. but since the thurs games I have to get my pix in by thur nite. My resourses r cut short! I'm still in 2nd @106 - 86, but I'm slipping! I look at the newsletters for a lil help.
Do you think you'll have Mark Lawrences Playbook news letter by tonight?

Thanks

PS: You and Cash are doing a Great Job! This site Is Invaluable 2me!

Haven't seen it yet but will post it as soon as I do 😉

NORTHCOAST SPORTS’ POWER PLAYS

UC and the home team are both 3-1 SU in this series. LY Pitt led 31-14 in the 4Q but ended
up losing in 2 OTs 46-45. PP calls for Pitt to pull the outright upset (+3) but gives UC a 332-253
ydg edge. We agree with the pts and like Pitt.
4* PITTSBURGH (+) 24 CONNECTICUT 21

Cal is playing to secure a trip to the Holiday Bowl while Washington is playing to try to avoid
an 0-12 season in Willingham’s fi nal game. PP calls for Cal to shutout the Huskies 42-0 (line
33’) and gives the Bears a 447-178 yd edge and we agree.
4* CALIFORNIA 42 WASHINGTON 0

Troy is 2-6 SU all-time vs ASU, but their 6 losses have come by a combined 20 pts. If ULL
loses on Wednesday night, Troy can clinch the Sun Belt Title with a win here and PP calls for
them to win by 18 with a 427-283 yd edge.
4* TROY 32 ARKANSAS ST 14

UF is 0-5-2 ATS in this series (3-4 SU) since ‘94 and these 2 teams have met 5 times for
the SEC Title with UF holding a 3-2 advantage. PP says UF will win by 17 (line 10) with a
415-330 yd edge. Meyer’s team has the talent and speed edge, and will get a trip to their 2nd
BCS Title gm in the L3Y with a solid win here.
4* FLORIDA 38 ALABAMA 21

UC is making their fi rst trip back to Hawaii since ‘02 where a huge brawl broke out and UH
won 20-19 with the help of some controversial calls. PP says that UC will win by 11 (line 7’)
with the ydg forecast almost even (UC 332-325). UC has a huge special teams edge and we
like the Bearcats in this one.
3* CINCINNATI 28 HAWAII 17

This is a rematch of LY’s B12 Title game which OU won 38-17 (-3) and OU will be looking to
make a statement since many believe they shouldn’t be playing for the B12 Title over Texas. PP
calls for OU to win by 18 (line 16’) with a 550-425 yd edge. OU is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the
B12 Title gm and will want to leave no doubt here that they belong in the BCS Title game.
3* OKLAHOMA 53 MISSOURI 35

WK is 2-1 SU in this series and FIU is off a tough OT loss to their rival FAU which cost them
a chance at a non-losing season. PP says FIU will win by 9 (line 7) with a 381-289 yd edge.
1* FIU 31 WKU 22

NORTHCOAST SPORTS’ POWER PLAYS

(MIN #20 vs DET #31 DET #30 vs MIN #9) MIN is in sole position of 1st place in the NFC North & will be
very wary of DET who they barely beat 12-10 as a 13.5 pt HF in the 1st game. MIN could be without both
DT’s Williams here which could give DET an outside shot at their 1st win. DET is off their worst loss ever on
Thanksgiving & are running out of chances to avoid NFL infamy. PP gives MIN a 388-275 yd edge & Ford Field
could only have 50% of its fans. If the Williams DT’s avoid suspension this is a 4* if not, its a 2*!!!
***4* VIKINGS 39 LIONS 18**

(NE #9 vs SEA #30 SEA #31 vs NE #13) NE is off an embarrassing home loss with 5 TO’s in the 2H converted
into 20 pts, only converted 1 3rd Dn while allowing PIT to convert 8 of 16. SEA has the location & schedule advantage here but have avg’d 15 ppg since Hasselbeck returned. PP gives NE a 379-294 yd edge & with Belichick being 10-0 SU & ATS away off a SU loss (no distractions) & a manageable line the Patriots are the play.
4*PATRIOTS 27 SEAHAWKS 17

(STL #28 vs ARZ #10 ARZ #3 vs STL #29) ARZ has 3 extra days to lick their wounds after being blasted
by PHI on Thanksgiving. While they are very 1 dimensional avg 43 ypg (2.5) rushing the L4W they are
more explosive in the passing game (#2), are solid in the trenches (#11 sacks allowed & by) & have a
massive intangible edge as they could earn their 1st Div title since 1975 at home. STL is a different team
with RB Jackson (94 yds 4.5 LW) available. PP gives ARZ a 463-266 yd edge but they haven’t been a
fav this big in 30+ years which is a concern.
3.5* CARDINALS 35 RAMS 16

(KC #25 vs DEN #28 DEN #2 vs KC #32) After being upset by OAK at home 2 Wks ago the Broncos go
into NY & shut down the Jets with a 34-17 win. KC got their 2nd win of the season over a Raiders team
that blasted them in Wk 2. While PP calls for DEN to have a 471-360 yd edge here they are a horrible
HF (3-15 ATS) & are notorious for playing down to their competition. No Play on the side as DEN is too
inconsistent TY & CB Bly & DE Ekuban are unknown here but the Total is attractive here.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 33 CHIEFS 24
3* BRONCOS/CHIEFS: OVER

CLE #27 vs TEN #5 TEN #17 vs CLE #26) CLE’s season is offi cially a disaster & they will start Ken Dorsey
(2-8 SU 4-6 ATS w/ SF) who hasn’t taken a real snap in 3 years. TEN has all the edges except special teams
& will have 3 extra days to rest & game plan for that. PP gives TEN a 385-192 yd edge & RB’s Johnson &
White could have another standout day vs CLE’s #26 rush def with a 4.4 ypc. The large line, however, keeps
this from being a larger play though.
3* TITANS 24 BROWNS 6

(CIN #32 vs IND #15 IND #21 vs CIN #24) CIN has been devastated by injs TY & could only generate 6 FD’s
& 155 yds vs BAL LW. IND struggled without Ctr Saturday vs CLE LW but CIN doesn’t have an impact player
on the DL like NT Rogers & could be without their top 3 DE’s here. PP gives IND a 351-261 yd edge & 18 pt
win but the Colts have won 5 straight by 6 or less & with DD Fav’s being 5-14 ATS TY this is a small play.
1* COLTS 28 BENGALS 10

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 183-130. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 31 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS INCLUDING THIS YEAR'S 4th outright upset with TENNESSEE two weeks ago!!! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week

Pittsburgh (+3) over CONNECTICUT

The HT and Conn are both 3-1 SU in the series. Here in 2006, Pitt suffered a tough loss as they led 31-14 in the 4Q but on the last play UC got a TD to force OT and won 46-45 in 2 OT’s on a 2 pt conv. LY Pitt was -8’ at home but UC led 27-7 at the half with a 218-101 yd edge (34-7 in 3Q) and rolled 34-14. Conn is 7-2 ATS as a HD and Pitt is 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS after the Brawl. This will be a battle between the top 2 backs in the BE. Conn is off a disappointing 17-13 loss to USF. QB Lorenzen has thrown for just 95 ypg (44%) with a 1-0 ratio the L/2 since returning from inj. He has had little help at the WR position. RB Brown was slighted by Doak Walker voters despite rushing for an NCAA leading 148 ypg (5.4) & 16 TD’s. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Their defense is all’g 120 rush ypg (3.6). Pitt defeated WV in The Backyard Brawl for the 2nd year in a row 19-15. Shady McCoy scored with :52 left and rushed for a career high 183 yds. QB Stull is avg 197 ypg (59%) with an 8-7 ratio. McCoy continues to be the star of the show avg 119 ypg (5.0) and 20 TD’s. Their defense is all’g 119 ypg rush (3.5) including 109 ypg in BE play incl holding WV to 157 rush yds. Pitt has off (#37-59) and ST’s (#42-102) edges while Conn has a slight def edge (#21-25) despite playing the weaker sked (#54-25). The Huskies have been solid at home with a 29-9 record at Rentschler Field and are 6-0-1 ATS in home finales since moving to IA. Pitt has been bowl-less the L/3Y and will finish strong here with the Sun Bowl on the horizon. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 27 CONNECTICUT 17

KEY SELECTIONS

4* † Florida over Alabama - SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Georgia Dome.

The last time these 2 SEC powers met in the SEC Championship gm (1999), #7 Alabama defeated #5 Florida 34-7 (UF -6’). The last meeting between these 2 teams was a 28-13 UF win in Gainesville in ‘06 (UF -15). UF is 0-5-2 ATS since ‘94 in this series (3-4 SU) and the Gators are 7-8 SU & 6-9-1 ATS vs SEC West schools (2-1 SU/ATS TY). These 2 teams have met 5 times in the SEC Champ gm with UF holding a 3-2 advantage (2-2-1 ATS). UF is the only team in the nation with a top 5 off (#2) and def (#5) and they also have our #6 sp tms. Bama ranks #21 on off, #6 on def & #47 on sp tms. UF QB Tebow has brought his name back into the Heisman conversation leading the tm to 8 straight wins by an avg of 52-12 and is avg 192 ypg (65%) with a 25-2 ratio and 507 rush (3.7) with 12 TD. WR Harvin has 595 rec yds (17.0) and 538 rush (8.8) but is a ? for this gm after suffering an ankle inj in UF’s 45-15 win over rival FSU LW. UF has rushed for 300+ yds in the L/3 gms. UF is allowing 102 ypg rush (3.3) and is #5 in our pass D rankings. #1 Bama is the only undefeated BCS team left and Saban has led his team to a 5 gm improvement over LY in just his 2nd yr at the helm. Bama is off a 36-0 win over rival Aub which ended Aub’s 6 gm Iron Bowl series win streak. UA has won gms with a strong rush attack avg 202 ypg (4.8) led by RB Coffee (1235, 6.2) and their strong defense (74 rush ypg allowed, 2.7, #9 pass D ranking). QB JP Wilson is more of a gm manager TY avg just 159 pass ypg (59%) with a 9-5 ratio. True frosh WR Jones (PS#1) leads the tm with 723 (15.7). UF is 5-0 ATS away from The Swamp TY (all as fav) but UA has 2 outright upsets as a dog away from Tuscaloosa TY (Clemson & UGA). While these are 2 of the top coaches in the country with superb game-planning, Meyer has the talent and speed edge and the Gators should be playing for their 2nd BCS Title in 3 yrs after a solid win over the Tide. FORECAST: Florida 41 Alabama 17

3* TULSA over East Carolina - CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - TU has won and covered both in CUSA play. The Pirates’ ssn has been a roller coaster ride. They opened with wins over #17 VA Tech (27-22, +9’) and #8 WVU (24-3, +7’) and were ranked #15 after a victory over Tulane moved them to 3-0. EC then lost 3 in a row (OT at NCSt, at UVA), incl a 41-24 (-10’) home loss to Houston. EC finished the yr winning 5 of 6 with their only loss coming at S Miss (21-3, +3). EC is 4-8 ATS and ended the regular season on a 2-8 ATS run and did not cover in a true road gm the entire ssn (0-6, avg ATS loss by 10’). The Pirates are off a 53-21 (-6’) home win over UTEP, in which they outgained the Miners 475-370. EC had their highest rushing output of the ssn with 231 yds (4.4) and the 53 pts were 23 better than their previous season high (30 vs Mem). QB Pinkney has re-established himself as the starter, after splitting time with Kass (25-54, 321 yds, 2-2 ratio on yr) in the middle of the ssn. Pinkney is avg 188 ypg (64%) with an 11-7 ratio. RB Whitley leads the team with 563 yds (4.7). The WR position has been devastated by injuries and TE Drew is the leading active receiver with 547 yds (15.6). The Pirates rely on their D to win games. EC is #1 in CUSA allowing just 20.5 ppg and 329 ypg. DE CJ Wilson is #15 in NCAA with 17 tfl. Tulsa looked like a BCS buster early in the season, getting off to an 8-0 start (6-2 ATS), but a loss at Arkansas burst their bubble. TU was in a 3 way tie in CUSA West heading into the final week. The Hurricane got a win over Marshall and received some help as Rice defeated Houston, which put TU in the championship game for the 2nd year in a row. Tulsa went 7-1 in conf play, which earned them the home field advantage here and they have been dominant at home, going 5-0 SU/ATS against IA opp, with an avg cover by almost 21 pts. TU won at Marshall 38-35 (-16) LW as they outgained MU 516-437 but needed a 4Q FG to pull out the win. TU is #2 in NCAA avg 49 ppg and QB Johnson is #1 in pass eff, avg 306 ypg (66%) with a 42-13 ratio. The TU ground game often gets overlooked, but they are #7 in NCAA avg 259 ypg (5.6). RB Adams leads the way with 1,196 yds (6.0). Marion is the big play WR and leads the team with 1,058 rec yds (27.1!), incl a school-record 97 yd TD vs UTEP. Tulsa’s D has struggled at times. They are allowing 29 ppg and are #94 in NCAA allowing 401 ypg. TU avg 3 sacks per game (36 total), which is #6 in NCAA. The winner earns a trip to the Liberty Bowl to play an SEC opp, while the loser is likely headed to the GMAC Bowl. Tulsa is avg 61 ppg at home, while EC avg just 19 ppg on the road, so we will side with the home team which has yet to be challenged at Chapman Stadium. FORECAST: TULSA 47 East Carolina 20

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* TROY over Arkansas St - While Troy is 2-6 SU all-time vs Ark St, their 6 losses have been by a combined 20 points. In ‘06 here Troy was playing a meaningless game as the next week’s matchup vs Mid Tenn St would determine the SBC Title and ASU got a TD with :17 left to pull out a 33-26 road upset (+8). The only other SBC home loss for the Trojans came in ‘05 when they were knocked off by MT. The next time the Raiders came to town they were thrashed 45-7 (-12). Last year Troy only had a 158-151 yd edge at the half but shutout ASU 27-0 on the road (-5). Troy is 4-2 ATS vs conf foes TY while ASU is 1-5 (0-3 ATS on the road). Troy has lost 3 straight FHG SU but is fresh off a bye. Prior to the bye they beat ULL 48-3 and are currently the SBC leader at 5-1. They outgained ULL 459-255 and outFD’d them 26-12. QB Brown is avg 243 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio vs SBC foes and RB Harris has 754 yds (5.8). ASU plays for a 3rd straight week and is off a 33-28 win over N Texas making them bowl eligible for the 3rd time in 4 yrs. QB Leonard is avg 215 ypg (55%) with a 9-3 ratio and RB Arnold has 593 yds (4.9) vs SBC foes. Troy has edges on off (#55-78), def (#56-75) and spec tms (#27-71) and has scored 30 or more pts in 6 of L/7 gms. If ULL loses on Wed this would be the SBC Title game and we lean with the more experienced Trojans. FORECAST: TROY 34 Arkansas St 17

OTHER GAMES

Thursday, December 4th

Louisville at RUTGERS - This is a battle between 2 teams moving in different directions with Rutgers proving to be one of the hottest teams in the BE (42 ppg L/4) vs a UL team that has dumped the last 4.The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in their Big East meetings with both games decided by 3 pts the last 2 years and a 56-5 home blowout win by the Cards in ‘05. LY Rutgers led 35-17 on the road but Louisville rallied for a 41-38 win with a FG with :33 left. In 2006 here Louisville led by 18 in the 3Q and blew the lead the week after beating W Virg at home. Rutgers has the edges on offense (#36-52), defense (#36-79) and the home field advantage. UL is avg 175 rush ypg (4.5) and now faces a RU def all’g 147 ypg (3.9). Louisville is on an 0-4 SU & ATS run being outscored by 16 ppg while Rutgers has covered the last 8 (6-2 SU) by 13 ppg. Both teams are off a bye and should be well prepared. Rutgers looks to climb the bowl ladder and after a disappointing season UL needs the win to get to .500 and bowl eligibility.

Friday, December 5th

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - † Buffalo vs Ball St - Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. These teams have met just 4 times since Buffalo joined the MAC and Ball St has dominated going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS incl 3 straight covers. They have avg’d a combined 71 ppg with the lowest total being 62. LY Ball St easily covered as a 13’ HF winning 49-14. Ball St is 12-0 for the first time in their history. Their most wins previously was when they went 10-1 in 1978 when current HC Hoke was a player for the Cardinals. Buffalo’s 7-5 record is the Bulls’ first winning record since moving up to IA football in 1999. This is both teams’ first trip to the MAC Championship game and both are guaranteed their first ever bowl appearances. Ball St has gone 8-3 ATS incl 4-1 as an AF while Buffalo has gone 8-4 ATS incl 6-0 as an AD. They have faced 4 common opponents with Ball St going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS, while Buffalo went 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. The Bulls came close to going 4-0 as a last second FG for the win vs CM hit the upright and they led WM by 14 with less than 5:00 left before losing in OT. Ball St had an extra 3 days to prepare as they closed the regular season on Tuesday with a 45-22 win over WM in a game in which they had a 452-347 yd edge. Buffalo played Friday and we won a 4H Small College Play on Kent St (+9’) as the Flashes caught the Bulls looking ahead to the MAC Championship. The Bulls who had the East Div locked up lost 24-21 and were outgained 426-385. The Cardinals have the offensive (#29-77) and defensive (#65-86) edges but the Bulls have played the tougher schedule (#84-120). Ball St QB Davis is avg 258 ypg (67%) with a 25-6 ratio. RB Lewis leads the MAC with 1,570 (5.7) with 20 rush TD and should do well against a Bulls defense that is allowing 4.7 ypc. The Cardinals top receiver is WR Orsbon with 52 (12.0). Buffalo QB Willy is avg 240 ypg (65%) with a 22-5 ratio. RB Starks, who missed 2 games with injuries, is #2 in the MAC in rush ypg (122.6) with a Buffalo single season record 1,226 yds (5.1) and 14 TD. Starks may be the Bulls best offensive hope as Ball St is allowing 4.3 ypc. The Bulls top receiver is Roosevelt with a Buffalo single season record 86 grabs (13.9). Ball St has won 11 of their 12 games by 12 pts or more while 7 of Buffalo’s games have been decided by 6 or less (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). While this game looks like an offensive battle, it could be decided by the defenses. The Cardinals D is allowing just 16.7 ppg and 351.8 ypg compared to the Bulls’ defense that is allowing 27.8 ppg and 400.4 ypg.

Saturday, December 6th

† Navy 27 Army 13 - Philadelphia.

Navy has dominated this series of late winning the last 6 in a row SU (5-1 ATS) by a combined score of 240-71! Last year Navy only had a 294-217 yard edge but won 38-3 and 66 of Navy’s yards came on their final drive running out the clock. Navy has now won 12 consecutive games vs Service Academy opps (11-1 ATS) and with a win in this one will capture their 6th straight Commander-In-Chief Trophy. Navy is off a shutout of N Ill (1st shutout since ‘04) in which their #85 defense held the Huskies to 251 yds (2nd lowest all’d TY). Navy’s D is only allowing 128 rush ypg (3.7). Soph QB Dobbs made his first career start on the road LW and had 124 rush (5.0) with just 32 pass yds (1 att). Dobbs has taken over the #64 offense for senior starter Kaheaku-Enhada (bothered all yr by hamstring inj but expected to play vs Army) and senior bkup Bryant (inj’d, then lost job to Dobbs). In the last 4 gms, Dobbs has 422 rush (4.5) and 173 pass with 8 TD combined. Dobbs led Navy to wins over SMU, rallied them from a 20 pt 4Q deficit vs Temple for an OT win, almost rallied them for a 4Q comeback vs ND (14 pts scored in final 2:00 in 6 pt loss), and led the team’s solid win at N Ill, so the future is bright at QB at the Naval Academy. SB White (873, 8.3) and FB Kettani (807, 5.3) lead the team in rushing, but Dobbs is 3rd (493, 4.7) despite only playing in 7 gms. Army switched back to the option offense this year and finally seemed to get on track in their 4th gm vs Texas A&M with 280 yds rushing. The biggest factor in Army’s 3-8 record is 28 TO’s including 23 fmbl’s (-12 TO margin). Army QB Bowden is the #2 rusher with 566 (3.1). FB Mooney is just the 10th Army player to rush for over 1,000 yds in a season and leads the team with 1,285 (6.0). These teams have both played Temple, Rutgers and Air Force, with Navy going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (only ATS loss, a 33-27 win vs Temple -7), while Army was 0-3 SU & ATS. The most telling game is the Air Force matchup of option vs option. Navy won 33-27 as a 4 pt AD (with 2 blk’d punts ret’d for TD’s) while Army lost 16-7 as a 7’ pt HD. Even though Army, which is allowing just 124.8 ypg rush, has a slight def edge (#73-85), their #118 off will struggle against a def that has played against the option off every day in practice for years. Navy is 10-4 as a favorite away from Annapolis, but Army is 4-1 ATS as an AD TY.

WEST VIRGINIA 20 Usf 17 -

The Bulls have held the potent WV run attack to an avg of 160 ypg in their L/2 upset wins of #7 and #5 WV teams. LY the Mountaineers lost QB White late in the 2Q after he was hit in the right thigh on a running play as the Bulls won 21-13. USF won here in November in ‘06 but usually does not play well in cold weather incl their bowl loss to Oregon last year. These 2 teams have combined to avg 39 ppg in their 3 matchups. USF gained bowl eligibility after 3 straight losses with a 17-13 win over Conn. The Bulls’ swarming defense held the nation’s leading rusher (Brown) to 96 yds (3.4) and is all’g 94 ypg (2.8). QB Grothe played at less than 100% (ankle) but still pulled out the huge win. Grothe is avg 266 ypg ttl offense. The USF backfield has been banged up, but is healthy here after a bye. WR Hester has 50 rec (10.9). WV is off a huge loss to Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. Three of WV’s four losses have been by a margin of 4 points or less. WV QB White (224 ttl ypg) & RB Devine (112 ypg, 6.8) have decent numbers but are nowhere near the offensive monster they were LY (24 ppg TY vs IA compared to 40 ppg LY). Their defense is all’g 194 ypg pass (56%) with a 12-12 ratio. WV has slight edges on offense (#30-42), def (#23-30) and ST’s (#41-63). USF is in the dog role after 19 straight as a favorite. The last 3 times as a dog USF has upset #7 WV, #17 Aub and #5 WV. Both teams want to finish strong this year after disappointing seasons. WV is off an emotional loss LW and looks to avenge B2B losses to USF who typically plays poorly when they travel north in Nov/Dec weather.

CALIFORNIA 44 Washington 6 -

It is strange to see these two playing another regular ssn game after their big rivalry matchups. Both squads return from byes but do so in different situations as the Bears are trying to improve their record to potentially reach the Holiday Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 yrs while the Huskies are trying to avoid an 0-12 campaign, which would make them the only winless team in IA. UW had their chances vs WSU but failed to pull away dropping their 9th straight lined game as QB Fouch (132 ypg, 45%, 4-12 ratio) continues to struggle due to inexperience around him. LY the Huskies rolled up 334 yards on the ground in their 37-23 upset of Cal at home (+7). The Bears put together a strong 2H vs the Cardinal in the “Big Game” as RB Best rushed for a career high 201 yds as he finally looks to be close to 100%. The QB carousel looks to be a one man show for now as Riley aims to start his 3rd consec here (148 ypg, 55%, 14-4 ratio in 8 sts) & will do so against a UW pass D allowing 220 ypg (68%) with a 23-7 ratio on the yr. Cal has had their share of problems in recent yrs as a 20 pt fav going just 3-9 ATS (did cover vs CSU TY). The Bears have turned around their pitiful ssn-ending trends in ‘08 however covering 4 of their L/5 placing them in another good spot here.

Usc 31 UCLA 7 -

The Trojans come into this matchup off another decisive win vs Notre Dame as they held the Irish to just 91 yds & 4 FD’s (ND didn’t record their initial 1st down until the last play of the 3Q). A win over the rival Bruins guarantees a 5th trip to the Rose Bowl in the L6Y. USC’s defense has been dominating as the have allowed a meager 22 pts in the 2H TY while allowing just 211 ypg (#1 NCAA). QB Sanchez will be making his first career start against their cross-town rival as he continues to improve his passing numbers on the ssn avg 230 ypg (65%) & a 28-9 ratio. LY USC had a 437-168 yard edge but was unable to get much going on offense in the 24-7 win (-19’). Bruin HC Neuheisel had his 1st year bowl aspirations ended in the desert LW despite outgaining ASU by a 306-122 clip as the Bruins allowed an NCAA-tying 4 def TD’s in the 34-9 loss (+10). UCLA QB Craft has now thrown 12 int’s compared to 0 TD’s in his last 4 games. Former Trojan OC Chow gets his 1st crack at his old team here as well, but the new coaching staff for the Bruins hasn’t fared as well in the conf home dog role going 1-2 ATS in ‘08 (outscored 65-16 in losses) while they were an outstanding 7-0 ATS in previous HC Dorrell’s tenure. They now get a chance to end USC’s BCS hopes for the 2nd time in 3 yrs as UCLA’s ‘06 upset of the Trojans here cost USC a trip to the National Championship gm. While this game may not have as much meaning, the Bruins are 19-5 ATS the L5Y off a SU loss & could keep this one a little closer than some would expect as Carroll has gone just 5-11 ATS as a DD AF including just 2-3 ATS TY.

ARIZONA 27 Arizona St 17 -

The Sun Devils have gone 5-1 SU in the battle for the Territorial Cup (nation’s oldest traveling trophy). They need just 1 more victory to turn a 2-6 midssn record into a bowl year at 6-6 after they took care of the Bruins last week in the desert as they were aided by an NCAA-tying record of 4 def TD’s. Not much went well on the offensive side of the ball for ASU as they mustered just 122 ttl yards for the game while recording just 1 more FD (10) than the amount of times they were forced to punt (9). The dog has covered 4 in a row while ASU’s Carpenter (215 ypg, 63%, 15-8 ratio) will be attempting to be the 1st QB in school history to go 4-0 vs the Wildcats but will have to avoid being on his back in the process as Devil QB’s have been sacked 31 times on the ssn (AZ 19 def sks). In ‘05 & ‘06 Arizona appeared poised to win but QB Tuitama was injured thus taking away any chances of a victory. LY he played the entire game & his 4 yd TD pass with :26 left gave them the backdoor cover (+6’) in a 20-17 loss. Arizona returns home from a late ssn bye in a series in which the home team has gone just 3-13 ATS. They will be looking to re-build some momentum after dropping 2 in a row SU and ATS in heartbreaking fashion as they stormed back from a 45-17 HT deficit to Oregon only to lose by 10 and then dropped a matchup to OSU a week later on an end of regulation Beaver FG. QB Tuitama (225 ypg, 64%, 19-7 ratio) is healthy for a 2nd consec ssn here and while ASU has been in spoiler mode the last two years keeping the Cats out of postseason play, Arizona has a chance to reverse that role here.

Cincinnati 27 HAWAII 17 -

The Bearcats are making their first trip to the Aloha State since the infamous game between these two in ‘02 when a brawl broke out between the players. UH won that game 20-19 (-3’). Hawaii is 4-2 SU but 0-2 ATS vs current Big East schools while Cincy is 2-0 ATS vs current WAC tms. Both tms have shuffled multiple QB’s throughout the year before finally settling on a signal caller (Eleven IA teams have started 3+ QB’s incl both of these teams). After juggling 4 QB’s for part of the ssn, UH turned to Alexander & it has paid dividends. Since starting the 2H vs Nevada & directing the Warriors to a last second win, UH has gone 4-1 with him under center. He’s avg 194 ypg (63%) with a 10-3 ratio & is coming off a career-best 315 yd outing vs Wazzu LW. WR’s Washington (49 rec, 12.8, 5 TD) & Salas (48 rec, 15.1, 3 TD) are his top 2 targets. UC has the edges on off (#57-96), def (#17-68) and ST (#3-115). After shuffling through 5 QB’s itself, UC QB Pike distanced himself from the pack & is avg 206 ypg (61%) with a 17-5 ratio. The Bearcats have a solid one-two punch at WR as the potent duo of Goodman (78 rec, 12.5, 7 TD) & Gilyard (67 rec, 14.7, 9 TD) headline a strong rec game. Gilyard is also a big threat on KR avg 28.4 ypr (#10 in the NCAA) with 2 TD. The Bearcats feature the #25 scoring D in the NCAA all’g just 19.8 ppg & have held 10 of 12 opp to 23 pts or less TY. The UC D will try to exploit a UH offense that is #115 in the NCAA in TO’s lost (33) & #117 in sacks allowed (44). UH has accepted a bowl bid to play at home in Hawaii & is playing B2B BCS foes to close out the reg ssn, while UC is playing a 7th consecutive week with a lengthy trip here. UC is fresh off wrapping up its 1st Big East Title and secured its 1st ever trip to a BCS bowl en route to tying the school record for most wins in a single season (10) & seeks win #11 here.

FIU 30 WKU 20 -

WKU is 2-1 SU in the series. In the Panthers’ 1st year of football (2002), they were held to 77 yards passing, their lowest output in their 7 years of existence. In their last meeting (2005), FIU got a 38-35 win at home with a 36 yd FG on the final play. They had a 492-347 yard edge. FlU played rival FAU last week and lost 57-50 in OT with QB McCall throwing for the school rec’d 400 yds. McCall is avg 186 ypg (52%) with a 14-9 ratio and WR Hilton has 39 rec (24.8). In WKU’s last gm they lost 21-10 vs Mid Tenn and were outgained 313-281. QB Wolke had his best gm of the yr hitting 18 of 30 for 213 yds with a 1-1 ratio. He is avg 114 ypg (53%) with an 8-8 ratio. WKU has not played since Nov 15 (3 wks). FIU is still in an unfamiliar role as a fav, but we lean with the Panthers off of a tough loss.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - † Virginia Tech 17 Boston College 13 - Raymond James Stadium,

“The Road to Tampa Bay.” This is a rematch of LY’s title game and VT’s 3rd Coastal Division Title in the 4 yrs since the ACC was split into 2 divisions. BC is also in its 2nd straight title game under 2nd year HC Jagodzinski. BC is 4-9 SU but 9-4 ATS in this series incl a 28-23 win over VT earlier this season but lost to the Hokies LY in the title game 30-16 despite outgaining VT 389-300 as QB Matt Ryan threw for 305 yds. In TY’s matchup the Eagles survived 2 IR TD’s and finished with 22-14 FD and 300-240 yds edges as they held onto a 28-17 HT lead. They have faced 4 common opp’s TY (GT, NC, FSU & MD) and VT went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS while BC went 2-2 SU/ATS. After dropping 2 straight conference games, the Eagles won 4 straight, incl LW’s 28-21 win over Maryland. RFr QB Davis, making his 1st start LW due to Crane’s broken collarbone, threw for 134 yards and 2 TD’s & bkup QB, P, K holder Flutie threw a TD pass on a fake FG (1st collegiate pass). For the season true Fr Harris leads the team with 798 rush yds (5.1) while WR Robinson has 37 rec (15.7) & Gunnell has 42 rec (10.4). Each team has struggled on offense (BC #71-76) but they do have solids D’s (VT #14-19). BC is #1 in the NCAA with 25 int. VT is 17-4 SU on the ACC road but just 1-4 TY on the ACC road (1-3 TY). The Hokies are 8-3 ATS as a conf road dog under Beamer. Coming off his worst performance, QB Taylor rushed for over 100 yds LW, his 4th career 100 yard game, tying Michael Vick for the 2nd most 100 yard games by a QB in VT history. The Hokies defeated in-state rival UVA 17-14 in a game that was not as close as the final score as VT had 24-12 FD & 392-249 yd edges. On the year, Taylor is avg 147 total ypg. RB Evans has rushed for 998 yds (4.4) and WR Coale has 32 rec (11.0). The Hokies should have the fan edge as VT fans travel well while Eagles fans do not. BC will try to avenge LY’s loss and earn its first-ever BCS berth but will have to do it behind a rFr QB making just his 2nd start and VT will try to repeat LY’s feat of avenging a regular season loss.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP - † Oklahoma 51 Missouri 30 -

Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. This will be the second straight Oklahoma vs Missouri B12 Championship game. OU took care of Mizzou at the Alamodome LY 38-17 (-3) outgaining them 375-317, but MO did have a 220-132 HT yd edge w/the score tied at 14. This marks the Tigers’ 2nd ever B12 Title game and the Sooners are making this an every year occurrence, playing in their 7th championship game (all after 2000) & have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS (each as a fav). The Sooners have played in every B12 Title game at Arrowhead (3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS) and even though this will be the Tigers’ first time here in a championship game they finished up this yr at this venue LW vs rival Kansas. OU is outgaining its foes in the title gm by 103 ypg as their defense has been stout allowing just 280 ypg (16 ppg). This will be the 94th meeting between these two as OU holds a 64-24-5 advantage (Mizzou just one win since ‘84, in 1998). Unlike last year, MO avoided OU in the regular season. Both tms had 6 common opp’s TY (BU, KU, KSU, NU, OSU & UT) and Mizzou was 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS outscoring them by just 4 ppg & outgaining them by just 24 ypg. OU was 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS (+19 ppg, +113 ypg). MO finished 9-3 (5-7 ATS) in the reg ssn & shared the B12 N crown w/NU but got here by virtue of their head-2-head win over the Huskers. QB Daniel is avg 323 ypg (75%) with a 34-13 ratio. WR Maclin has 88 rec (13.4) while TE Coffman has 79 (11.0). RB Washington has 963 yds (6.3). MO has allowed 23 sks (2.7%) & is avg 165 ypg (5.5) on the ground. They have been burned through the air allowing 277 ypg (64%) with a 24-13 ratio which ranks #77 in our pass eff D. OU finished 11-1 (10-2 ATS) & gets here due to their higher BCS ranking than 11-1 TT & UT. QB Bradford is avg 340 ypg (68%) with a 46-6 ratio. WR Iglesias has 60 rec (16.1). TE Gresham has 50 (16.1) and RB’s Murray & Brown have combined for 1,990 yds (5.7). OU has allowed just 11 sks (2.6%) with an OL that avg 6’5” 310 & has paved the way for 202 ypg (4.7) on the ground. The Sooners rank #11 in our pass eff D allowing 250 ypg (54%) with a 17-15 ratio. Both tms rank near the top in off (OU#1, MO#8), but OU has the better def (#16-39). MO has a ST edge (#49-113) & OU has given up a KR TD to 4 different tms TY. OU comes into this gm avg 53 ppg & has dropped 61+ on its L/4 opp’s while MO limps in after a loss to rival KU LW & has now gone 2-5 ATS down the stretch (0-1 as an AD while OU is 5-1 as an AF).

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

(4) Angle Plays 28-10 74% L/4Y!

(4) GREEN BAY
(3) KANSAS CITY
(3) ARIZONA
(3) NEW ENGLAND

PRO STAT PLAY: NEW ENGLAND

SYSTEM SELECTION ( System Play 10-4 )

Play the Over when a home team scored 20 or more points and lost by 20 or more points on the road last week.

2001-2008: 12-1-1 92%

THIS WEEK'S PLAY: Rams/Cardinals OVER

KEY SELECTIONS

4* ARIZONA over St Louis -

ARZ comes into this game with 3 days extra rest & the defense will be highly motivated after being thumped by PHI LW. ARZ let PHI score TD’s on 3 of their 1st 4 drives & was down 24-7 at the half being outFD 19-7 & outgained 219-105. ARZ is 1-7 ATS as a fav of 7+ & they have not been a fav this big over the L32 years. ARZ is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home after a SU loss under Whisenhunt. Warner has passed for 305 ypg (73%) with an 11-2 ratio (111.0 QBR) at home TY. STL is 0-5 ATS in div play. The 2005 SF team is widely regarded as the worst team in the NFL since the 1999 expansion Browns finishing 4-12 with the #32 & #32 units. They were outFD 21-12 & outgained 391-224 (-9 TO’s) with a 27-15 avg score. The 2008 Rams are almost as bad being outFD 21-14, outgained 382-266 (-9 TO’s) with a 30-13 avg score TY. STL did get a nice rebound LW by staying close vs MIA with the return of RB Jackson (94, 4.5). It’s tough to be confident in Bulger who is only avg 190 ypg (57%) with a 3-5 ratio & weak 6.2 ypa on the road. While this is a huge line (DD fav’s 5-14 ATS TY) ARZ can win its 1st Division Title since 1975 here & will have a rowdy crowd here. FORECAST: ARIZONA 41 St Louis 17

3* New England over SEATTLE - This game features two of the best minds in the NFL with Belichick vs Holmgren. NE has big statistical edges with the #2 & #12 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs SEA’s #29 & #32 units (-3 TO’s). NE is 15-5 ATS as an AF & 9-2-1 ATS away vs the NFC. SEA is 3-6 ATS as a HD. While SEA has seen its offensive production rise the L3W (196, 228, 322) under Hasselbeck they have dropped in points scored (20,17.9). The defense is really wearing down allowing an avg 430 ypg the L3W & the #31 pass defense with a 19-6 ratio gets a bad matchup vs Moss (58 rec, 13.5) & Welker (84 rec, 10.3). SEA will be the 2nd of 3 straight teams for NE that have 3 extra days rest & are catching NE off a physical game vs PIT. NE will be livid after losing at home to PIT as they were out muscled at the POA. They gave up 5 TO’s due to self inflicted mistakes & not overtly bad plays. SEA lacks the pass rush (#10) that PIT (#1), MIA (#8) & the Jets (#5) have as DE Kerney is on IR & half their sacks came vs SF. NE is 10-0 SU & ATS away after a SU loss since 2003 with a 402-298 yd edge & 32-17 avg score. LW’s results give great line value. With NE on the outside looking in & facing a lower level team the Patriots come up big here. FORECAST: New England 30 SEATTLE 14

2* SAN FRANCISCO (+) over NY Jets - SF is finally home after 2 long road trips to DAL & BUF. The Jets have good statistical edges with the #11 & #19 units (-1 TO’s) vs SF’s #26 & #23 units (-13 TO’s) & both teams have elite special teams units. SF is 2-6 ATS as a HD while the Jets are 10-6-1 ATS as an AF. This is a flat spot for the Jets who are off 2 big games vs NE & TEN, a tough loss vs DEN & have BUF on deck. This is SF’s only HG in a 5 week span. SF is off a bit of a misleading win vs BUF as they KO’d QB Edwards putting an unprepared Losman up against a promising front 7. SF was outgained 350-195 but held off BUF in their red zone (0-4). HD’s that won SU as an AD LW but scored 14 or less are 18-3 ATS. The Jets had their win streak (5 SU wins & 4 straight covers) broken getting outgained 484-383 vs DEN. While others may jump on them to rebound off a loss we look for a tight game with NYJ being in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & having faltered twice in trips to the West Coast. The Jets lost & failed to cover to both SD (now 4-8 SU) & OAK (now 3-10 SU) & have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. SF knows they are playing for next year’s spots but they continue to play with enthusiasm under Singletary & are worth a play as the Ugly Dog here (23-12 66%). FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 23 (+) NY Jets 24

2* TENNESSEE over Cleveland - The Browns needed a Titans loss to IND in their season finale to back into the playoffs but the Colts rolled over & TEN slid into the #6 spot. CLE is 11-5-1 ATS as a non-div AD & 24-10 ATS under Crennel after a SU loss. TEN is 2-7 ATS as a non-div HF. TEN has the #13 & #2 units (+3 TO’s) vs CLE #23 & #30 units (+2 TO’s) the L4W. CLE’s had a very solid gameplan LW vs IND relying on an under used RB Lewis (77 yds 3.2 LW) to control the clock & keep the defense out of trouble. CLE held Manning to 125 yds (71%) with an 0-2 ratio but a fumble on a sack of Anderson that was returned 37 yds which was the difference. CLE lost TE Winslow (ankle) & QB Anderson (left MCL) & will likely be forced to start #3 QB Ken Dorsey who has a 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS record with SF in limited starting duty avg 160 ypg (54%) with an 8-11 ratio. Dorsey hasn’t taken a reg season snap in 3 years & faces a TEN’s pass rush that is 5th in sacks by (34) & the #3 pass defense has an 8-17 ratio. TEN’s #5 rush attack (139 ypg 4.2) should have another solid effort vs a CLE defense that is giving up 141 yds rushing (4.4) TY. The Titans dominated every phase of the game LW vs DET & should make short work of a depleted CLE team that will be spent after an impressive defensive effort at home. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Cleveland 3

OTHER GAMES

Oakland at SAN DIEGO - Thursday. SD beat OAK 28-18 as a 7.5 pt AF in for their only road win so far in 2008. OAK had a 15-0 lead at the half but SD scored 18 unanswered points to take the lead. OAK hit a 32 yd FG to tie with 2:47 left but SD hit a 47 yd FG & Tomlinson’s 41 yd TD run (longest run TY) sealed the cover with 1:04 left. SD has to deal with the fact they are basically out of the playoffs on Dec 1st. OAK dropped their game to KC LW but they have already gone on the road & knocked off division rivals KC & DEN. While OAK is usually a horrible Dec team they actually have something to play for in adding to SD’s pain. Turner however needs a big win to start earning his players faith for the 2009 season. Call for the Thursday Night Marquee Play after 3:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or www.ncsports.com.

INDIANAPOLIS 31 Cincinnati 13 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4Y with IND winning both SU & ATS. IND is 8-4 ATS as a DD fav. CIN is 8-2 as a DD dog. IND comes in having won 5 straight (2-3 ATS) with all 5 wins coming by 6 or less. While IND barely escaped with the win vs CLE LW they were facing a motivated team playing to save their HC’s job & were hindered by poor weather. IND was also without Ctr Saturday & Manning noted that not having him at the start of they year was worse than his 2 knee surgeries entering the season. CIN doesn’t have anyone on their depleted DL that is in the same class as NT Rogers & IND should fare much better here. Manning was held to a season low 125 yds passing (71%) with an 0-2 ratio & he now faces CIN’s #21 pass defense with an 18-8 ratio. CIN was without starting LT Jones & LG Whitworth (IR) LW & an OL that has given up 43 sacks TY (30th) now faces a Colts DL that only has 19 sacks (26th) but has put enough pressure on opposing QB’s to set up a 4-11 ratio for the #7 pass defense. CIN’s #24 defense only has 13 sacks TY (31st) & are without their top 3 DE’s due to injury. CIN could only muster 6 FD’s (1st time since 1992) & 155 yds vs a brutal BAL defense & punted 11 times with a FG, int & SOD on their other 3 drives. With DD fav’s being 5-14 ATS TY this is a dangerous play but CIN is without 10 starters from its projected opening day roster & have nothing to play for here.

CHICAGO 20 Jacksonville 14 - Both are off prime-time division matchups with JAX now on their 2nd straight road game while CHI returns home off a 3 game road trip. No matter the results for the Bears LW they still find themselves in the division race while the Jaguars were at 7 losses going into MNF & Del Rio admitted they are looking ahead to 2009. JAX is now 3-2 SU & ATS on the road & in the 3 wins they’ve rushed for 183 ypg (4.8 ypc) avg 28 ppg. In their 2 road losses they’ve avg’d 51 ypg (2.7) rushing & only 15 ppg. The matchup doesn’t favor JAX here as CHI is the #5 rush defense allowing just 3.3 ypc TY while holding to teams to 78 ypg (3.1) at home. JAX has covered just 2 of their L8 games both ATS wins were vs the #31 defense of DET & the #28 defense of DEN. CHI has been no bargain at home going 2-9 ATS as a HF but in the 4 games with Orton they’ve avgd 31 ppg & 327 ypg with wins vs PHI, MIN & DET & the only loss being to TB. They have been solid playing off a SU loss going 13-5 ATS (may apply) while also playing off a previous HL to TEN in which QB Orton missed with inj. CHI does have a short week on deck but the situation, weather & motivation all favor the Bears vs a JAX team travelling on a short week to a cold weather site. CHI stays alive for a pair off upcoming primetime games vs other potential NFC playoff teams.

GREEN BAY 31 Houston 17 - This is a poor situation for HOU who has to travel to a cold weather site after their first ever MNF game & has a home game vs TEN on deck. GB is off 2 big losses that have seen their playoff hopes dim. GB is 8-4-1 ATS as a HF. HOU is 3-9 ATS on the road. While HOU has only been outgained by an avg of 3 yds on the road TY (3-3 ATS) their only SU win as been vs the disappointing Browns. GB is 3-3 SU & ATS at home not because of Rodgers (249 ypg 69% 10-3 at home) but due to a
defense allowing 147 ypg rushing (5.0) at home. GB started slow vs CAR LW & had 16-7 FD & 285-128 yd edges in the 2H. 54 of CAR’s yards coming on a busted coverage of Steve Smith after he had been held to 3 rec (17.0) in the game. GB gets a great matchup with Jennings (64 rec, 16.5) & Driver (54 rec. 12.9) vs HOU #15 pass defense with a 17-9 ratio. GB does have some injury concerns at the Safety spot & RB Grant (wrist) left LW’s game but RB Jackson had 80 yds (7.3) vs CAR’s #11 def LW. This is a solid situational matchup & while HOU WR Johnson (81 rec, 13.2) will get his yards GB will get the win.

Minnesota 34 DETROIT 13 - The schedule favors the Lions who have 3 extra days rest vs a MIN team off a SNF game vs CHI. However, DET is off its worst Thanksgiving loss in history as TEN basically had a 3-1 edge in FD’s (19-6) & yards (456-154) in the game. DET went 0-11 on 3rd Dns & allowed two 100 yd rushers vs TB & TEN. After taking a 17-0 lead vs TB the Lions were outscored 73-6 over the next 4+ Qtrs. The Lions have been outgained 401-231 (-5 TO’s) at home TY with a 38-16 avg score. DET played a close game vs MIN earlier TY losing by a 12-10 margin as a 13.5 pt AD. MIN had 18-8 FD & 392-212 yd edges but on 3 drives inside the DET 20 had a fumble, missed FG & made the game winning FG on a drive helped out by a quest Def pass interference penalty on DET. MIN has the #20 & #9 units (-2 TO’s) vs DET’s #30 & #31 units (-9 TO’s) with DET having the spec teams edge. MIN’s biggest advantage is centered around their #6 rush attack avg 138 ypg rushing (4.4) vs DET’s #32 rush defense allowing 177 ypg (5.1). MIN’s DT Williams tandem should finally get the results of their Starcaps suspension this week. The key here will be RB Peterson vs a lowly DET defense that can’t bring pressure vs Frerotte.

NY GIANTS 17 Philadelphia 9 - The Giants beat PHI 36-31 in a misleading final as a 3 pt AD in the 1st meeting on SNF moving to 3-0 SU & ATS vs their div rival. The Giants had 26-17 FD & 401-300 yd edges but turned the ball over twice which gave PHI TD drives of 9 & 44 yds. The Giants wore out PHI’s defense with 45 rushes (4.9) to earn an 18:50 TOP edge. NFC East division HF’s are 4-11 ATS. The Giants are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home TY with a 371-242 yd edge & 30-13 avg score. However they find themselves in a murky situation with a full 7 days to deal with the Plaxico/Pierce situation & face a PHI team with 3 extra days rest that finally played up to their potential LW vs ARZ. PHI had 32-13 FD & 437-260 yd edges converting an impressive 10 of 15 3rd Dns but that was vs a tired West Coast team travelling on a short week. Westbrook has avg’d 100 combined yds (5.8) vs NYG who are 7-1 ATS as an AD. However, the Giants have won & covered 6 straight vs teams with a winning record TY (347-283 yd edge +9 TO’s 30-18 avg score) which is the 2nd longest streak in NFL history. The Giants will hunker down & focus on the task at hand but we need to see if MLB Pierce & RB Ward will be available & call this at the line here.

NEW ORLEANS 31 Atlanta 21 - The Falcons beat the Saints at their own game just 4 Wks ago with a 34-20 win as a 1.5 pt HF. Ryan had 248 yds passing (70%) with a 2-0 ratio. ATL had a 27-6 lead early 4Q before Brees turned it on & passed for 292 of his 422 yds with a 2-2 ratio. ATL is 0-5 SU & ATS as a div dog while NO is 4-9 ATS at home in div play. NO has a Thur Night road game vs CHI on deck but have a good situation here catching a young ATL team off a long road game vs SD. Brees has never had a 4Q comeback win in the NFL as NO lost to TB 23-20 LW. Brees was int’d on NO’s final 2 drives with the 1st setting up TB’s game winning FG. NO has been magical at home TY going 4-1 SU & ATS with a 427-301 yd edge & 33-20 avg score. ATL is off a big road win vs SD (348-201 yd edge) despite 3 TO’s but this isn’t Schottenheimer’s resilient Chargers team. LW’s results give good value here & we’ll side with the home team looking up in the standings.

Miami 20 Buffalo 17 - Toronto - This game will be played on a worn FieldTurf surface with the dome closed. Jauron had the dome closed in the preseason game vs PIT to familiarize the team with the lighting. The turf is very old & the Bills staff & players weren’t happy with the seams on the field that looked “stitched together.” MIA beat BUF 25-16 as a 1 pt HD in the 1st meeting. BUF was down by 1 at the end of the 3Q but their L4 drives were int, fumble, safety & fumble which MIA turned into 2 FG’s. BUF statistically outplayed SF LW with 18-12 FD & 350-195 yd edges but QB Edwards (groin) was KO’d of the game & his status here is unknown. BUF had two 15 play drives (180 yds) end in 0 points. The Bills had 4 drives total inside the SF 22 but came away with 2 missed FGs, a FG & were SOD. MIA squeaked by STL 16-12 but only had a 49 yd edge despite 3 int by Bulger. MIA was adapting to the loss of #1 WR Camarillo (55 rec, 11.1) & were caught by surprise a bit by the injection STL RB Jackson. Usually the injury system is to play on the team that sustained a loss to a key player (Edwards) but he’s been KO’d earlier TY (vs ARZ) & Losman failed to impress the team LW (93 yds 65% 0-0) at home. While BUF will have a decided crowd edge here MIA is better when no one counts on them.

DENVER 28 Kansas City 27 - KC got their first win of the season & 1st in 11 months with a 33-19 win as a 9 pt HD in the 1st meeting. RB Johnson had his best game of the year with 198 yds rushing (7.1) vs DEN’s #28 defense. DEN had 4 drives inside the KC 16 but were held to 1 TD, 1 missed FG & 2 FG’s both coming in the 4Q. DEN is 2-6 ATS in div play & 3-15 ATS as a HF. KC is 5-2 ATS away in div play. Cutler has been a bit of a disappointment avg just 234 ypg (51%) with a 4-5 ratio leading to a 0-3 SU & ATS record. He gets a KC team with just 6 sacks TY & the NFL record low is 13 set by the Colts back in 1981. KC’s #25 pass defense has a 7-4 ratio the L6W. Thigpen has done a solid job in the Nevada style Pistol scheme with 225 ypg (61%) with an 11-4 ratio the L6W. The Chiefs avenged their earlier season loss to OAK LW by holding off the Raiders with a 20-13 win. KC converted 2 TO’s into 10 pts & wore down the OAK defense with a 10:22 TOP edge. They now get a DEN team that pulled a nice road upset over a playoff contender with a 484-383 yd edge. #2 CB Bly & DE Ekuban (4 sacks) left LW’s game & their status is unknown. DEN is notorious for playing down to the level of their competition & while they should get the win in a higher scoring game we like the points here.

Dallas 17 PITTSBURGH 13 - This is a great matchup with one of the best teams in the NFC vs one of the best in the AFC. PIT has the #10 & #1 units (+3 TO’s) the L4W vs DAL #14 & #7 units (+0 TO’s) & both teams have bottom tier special teams units. PIT is 7-3 ATS hosting an NFC team while DAL is 6-3 vs the AFC. PIT laid another layer of sod over Heinz Field after the CIN game to improve the field conditions but they will have 4 high school championship games played on it & conditions similar to LY’s MIA game on SNF could arise. While DAL has 3 days extra rest they are 2-7 ATS away after a Thursday game. RB Barber (toe) & DE Ware (knee) are both expected to return here. ARZ’s defense has a lot of the same tendencies that PIT’s does & Romo did well with 321 yds (63%) with a 3-0 ratio. PIT has faced 4 top 10 offenses TY going 2-2 SU & ATS thumping HOU, losing to PHI giving up 9 sacks, hanging with NYG until they lost their LS & beating NE on the road LW getting 5 TO’s & converting them into 20 pts. PIT will be feeling very confident after beating NE LW but DAL coaching staff knows they have to fight tooth & claw for a Wild Card spot. We like the matchup of TO & WR Williams vs a thin PIT secondary & side with the dog here.

Washington at BALTIMORE - This is a great geographical rivalry that rarely gets to face off due to the schedule rotation. Both feature stout running games & BAL’s D hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 30 games but they did get blown up by NYG for 207 yds (6.3). WAS has the quick WR’s to take advantage of BAL’s lack of depth in the secondary but will Campbell (213 ypg 64% 11-4) have the time to take advantage of it? Call for the Sun Night Marquee Play after 11:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or www.ncsports.com.

Tampa Bay at CAROLINA - TB thumped CAR 27-3 at home in the 1st meeting even with CAR coming in loads of confidence after a 34-0 shutout win the previous week. TB returned a blocked punt for a TD to take an early lead then shut down CAR’s power run game with a 142 (3.8) to 40 (2.0) rush edge while converting 6 of 13 on 3rd Dns. Delhomme had 3 int with 1 setting up a 52 yd TD drive. Garcia has passed for 227 ypg (68%) 6-1 the L7W since retaking the reigns here but it’s tough to sweep a div foe

Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3H Totals are 22-17. Here are this week's plays:

3 Browns/Titans UNDER 37
3 Eagles/Giants UNDER 44'
3 Rams/Cardinals OVER 49
2 Vikings/Lions OVER 41*
2 Cowboys/Steelers UNDER 41'

THE GOLDSHEET

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES

ARIZONA by 21 over Arizona State
HAWAII by 3 over Cincinnati

*ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 13—Not convinced that ASU’s recent
uptick at the expense of Pac-10 court jesters U-Dub, Wazzu, & UCLA any sort
of “buy” signal for Sun Devils. Especially since QB Carpenter & HC Dennis
Erickson’s “O” labored for much of game vs. Cougs and barely gained 100
yards of total offense in last week’s misleading win over the Bruins when ASU
“D” scored all Sun Devil TDs. Now, ASU facing live ammunition for first time in
over a month in form of o.c. Sonny Dykes’ potent Arizona spread and sr. QB
Tuitama, looking to close home career with a bang. And though Sun Devils
need a win to get bowl-eligible, there’s plenty at stake for postseason-bound
Wildcats, too, especially for HC Mike Stoops, who might need a victory (which
would get Cats to 7-5) to secure his future employment in Tucson. CABLE
TV—ESPN
(07-ARIZ. ST. 20-Ariz. 17...S.18-17 S.40/97 U.19/44 U.28/52/2/272 S.20/37/0/247 S.1 U.1)
(07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14 05-ASU -9' 23-20...SR: Arizona 44-36-1)

*HAWAII 34 - Cincinnati 31—On fundamentals alone, would
probably be compelled to back bigger, faster Cincinnati squad that’s riding 5-
game win streak. But this might be the spot to play “psychology” angle—i.e.,
Bearcats wouldn’t be first team to treat a late-season sojourn to the islands as
a vacation instead of a business trip. And if Cincy, which has already secured
the Big East title and an Orange Bowl bid, isn’t fully focused, blossoming Hawaii
QB Greg Alexander (867 YP & 7 TDP in last 3 games) capable of leading
Warriors to small upset, especially with Bearcats’ star sr. CB Mike Mickens
sidelined by knee injury. CABLE TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4
*RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 21—Schedule-maker the only one able to cool
off resurgent Rutgers recently, as streaking Scarlet Knights had won 5 straight
(and covered 7 in a row) prior to last week’s open date. Still, even with Louisville
fighting for its post-season life, expect host to pick up where it left off. Final
home game for zoned-in senior QB Mike Teel (68% for 1290 yards & 13 TDP in
last 4 games!), while NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt, who’s snagged 57
passes for 929 yards since serving one-game suspension at end of September,
is a nightmare matchup for depleted Cardinal secondary. And, with Rutgers
defense unleashing myriad blitzes on limping Louisville sr. QB Hunter Cantwell,
no surprise if fading visitor continues to self-destruct (Cards have coughed up
14 turnovers while dropping their last 4 games both straight-up & vs. spread).
CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-LVL. 41-Rutgers 38...R.25-21 L.45/240 R.37/153 R.21/32/0/265 L.12/22/0/237 L.1 R.0)
(07-LVL. -2' 41-38 06-RUT. +6' 28-25 05-LVL. -21' 56-5...SR: Rutgers 5-2)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
(At Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan)
*Ball State 40 - Buffalo 21—All due respect to Buffalo’s best team in 50
years, but Ball State has more edges in this game. It was a bad sign for the Bull
defense to give up 167 YR to QB Edelman and 150 to Flash RB Jarvis in last
week’s home loss to Kent. And, in its previous game at Bowling Green, UB fell
behind 21-0. Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis (1570 YR, 20 TDs in ‘08; 10 carries for
99 YR vs. Buffalo in his only game vs. the Bulls in ‘06) and QB Nate Davis (6667
YP, 55 TDP, just 12 ints. last 2 seasons; 73%, 6 TDs, just 1 int. in 2 career
games vs. Buffalo) are capable of putting up monster numbers Respect Buffalo’s
“triplets” of RB James Starks (123 ypg rushing), WRNaaman Roosevelt (86 recs., 1196 yds.)
and QB Drew Willy (64%, 2885 YP, 22 TDP, just 5 ints.), but Cardinals are at least an
equal offensively, and superior on defense & special teams. Buffalo allows 12 more ppg
than Ball State. TheBulls STs are sadly lacking (108th in net punting, 116 in kickoff returns), while
Ball State is 9th in punt returns. Card QB Davis, 6th in the country in pass
efficiency, will have all the time he wants, as only 2 teams have collected fewer
sacks than the Bulls, while Ball State ranks 5th in fewest sacks allowed.
Also consider the fact that Ball State has never lost to Buffalo, with impressive
covers in 2 most recent meetings. Realize Bulls have covered 8 straight as a dog,
but Brady Hoke’s Cards are 15-5-1 last 21 as a favorite. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-BSU 49-Buf. 14...Bs.28-11 Bs.48/274 Bf.27/83 Bs.21/29/0/233 Bf.14/19/1/136 Bs.0 Bf.1)
(07-BALL ST. -13' 49-14 06-Ball St. -4 55-25...SR: Ball State 6-0)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6
Navy 26 - Army 10—This year’s version of Army a little more competent
than the last six Black Knight editions that have been spanked by Navy. But the
novelty element that worked in West Point’s favor after its return to option
football earlier in campaign certainly won’t catch the Midshipmen off guard as
it did several of Army’s midseason foes, and Navy’s suspect 2ndary (ranks 101st
vs. pass) unlikely to get exposed by QB Bowden and Stan Brock’s land-locked
offense. So unless the presence of George W. Bush (attending rivalry for first
time since ‘04) summons extra-special effort from Black Knights, shade recent
series trends, especially with Navy “D” off first shutout in 4 years and electric
soph QB Dobbs picking up nuances of Mid option quite seamlessly. (at
Philadelphia, Pa.) TV—CBS
(07-Navy 38-Army 3...N.19-15 N.61/287 A.40/100 A.12/23/0/117 N.2/5/0/7 N.0 A.2)
(07-Navy -14 38-3 at Balt. 06-Navy -19' 26-14 at Phi. 05-Navy -6 42-23 at Phi...SR: Navy 52-49-7)

CONNECTICUT 26 - Pittsburgh 19—These teams are very similar, starting
with their respective “ground-centric” offenses that each feature one of the most
productive RBs in the country (but with each also limited by a QB that rarely
does substantial damage in air). Can’t expect sudden explosion from either
signal-caller, as Husky sr. Tyler Lorenzen & Panther jr. Bill Stull have combined
for just 9 TDP (vs. 14 ints.) this season. And no surprise if marqueé battle
between UConn jr. RB Donald Brown (nation-leading 148 ypg rushing) & Pitt
counterpart soph LeSean McCoy (1308 YR & 20 TDs) turns out to be a draw. So
it might be best to shade significant home-field advantage, which has seen host
Huskies cover 16 of their last 22 at Hartford. TV—ESPN2
(07-Conn. 34-PITT 14...P.19-17 C.46/115 P.23/72 P.31/51/4/277 C.12/25/0/174 C.1 P.2)
(07-Conn. +8' 34-14 06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0...SR: Connecticut 3-1)

*South Florida 24 - WEST VIRGINIA 23—Sure, record-setting
Mountaineer sr. QB Pat White would love to go out with a flourish in front of rabid
Morgantown faithful. But there’s a reason why revenge-minded West Virginia
has dropped last 2 meetings against South Florida—the Bulls’ defense has had
the speed necessary to contain White & the Mountaineers’ quick-striking
ground attack. And such appears to be the case again, as the swarming USF
stop unit is permitting only a paltry 94 ypg rushing this season. Even though Bull
jr. QB Matt Grothe (9 ints. in last 4 games) has been forcing too many throws
lately, he’s more likely to make key plays in the air than White, who’s passed for
200+ yards in a game only twice in last two campaigns. TV—ESPN2
(07-S. FLA. 21-W. Va. 13...W.21-13 W.48/188 S.38/139 W.23/38/3/249 S.11/20/2/135 S.2 W.3)
(07-USF +7 21-13 06-Usf +21 24-19 05-Wva -9 28-13...SR: South Florida 2-1)

CALIFORNIA 48 - Washington 10—No truth to rumors that one of Barack
Obama’s first acts as president will be Federal bailout assistance to U-Dub
football program. Not that Huskies couldn’t use all the help they can get,
especially considering how team has shown no interest in summoning a special
effort for lame-duck HC Ty Willingham since his imminent departure was
confirmed over a month ago (winless U-Dub also on nation’s worst 9-game
spread losing streak). Meanwhile, upbeat Cal is jockeying for improved bowl
position, and Jeff Tedford not about to let his Bears forget about LY’s humbling 14-
point loss in Seattle. Cal a noteworthy 6-0 SU and vs. line in “Berserk-eley” in ‘08.
(07-WASH. 37-Cal. 23...W.20-16 W.56/334 C.27/147 C.20/28/1/236 W.7/19/0/108 W.0 C.2)
(07-WASH. +7 37-23 06-CAL. -23 31-24 (OT) 05-Cal. -9 56-17...SR: Washington 46-37-4)

Southern Cal 31 - UCLA 6—We wonder if Rick Neuheisel will seek the
services of Henry Kissinger to mend any understandable broken fences
between UCLA’s “O” and “D” after Bruins gift-wrapped a hard-to-fathom, NCAA
record-tying 4 TDs to Arizona State’s defense in last week’s 34-9 loss at Tempe.
And indeed, one of the few questions in of this year’s crosstown rivalry is
whether USC’s stop unit will outscore the mistake-prone UCLA offense on its
own. But with pointspread likely ballooning into stratosphere, it’s worth
remembering how Bruin d.c. Walker’s schemes have has been able to “junk up”
the SC offensive machinery the past two meetings, games which UCLA
covered (including a memorable 13-9 upset in ‘06). And despite dominating
conference foes, note that Pete Carroll’s Trojan juggernaut is just 5-11 vs. line
last 16 on Pac-10 road. If sage Bruin (and ex-SC) o.c. Norm Chow can find a
way to limit QB Craft’s mistakes, Bruin “D” competent enough to prevent
complete embarrassment. TV—ABC
(07-S. CAL 24-Ucla 7...S.26-10 S.49/231 U.25/12 S.21/36/1/206 U.13/29/1/156 S.1 U.3)
(07-USC -19' 24-7 06-UCLA +12' 13-9 05-USC -21 66-19...SR: Southern Cal 42-28-7)

ADDED GAMES
*TROY 34 - Arkansas State 18—It’s not Florida-Alabama, but there are
postseason implications nonetheless in this Sun Belt showdown, with winner to
get loop’s automatic bid to New Orleans Bowl. Measured vote, then, for rested
Troy bunch that unleashed heretofore underutilized infantry (whopping 391 YR,
including career-high 234 YR by RB D. Harris!) in recent 48-3 smashing of ULLafayette.
That sort of complement will come in handy for Trojans’ Richmond
transfer QB Levi Brown, who’s been efficient and mostly error-free (11 TDP, just
3 picks) since assuming starting role at midseason. Red Wolves not providing
much value lately (just 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board TY).
(07-Troy 27-ARK. ST. 0...T.17-11 T.43/200 A.34/116 T.16/26/1/168 A.12/28/3/121 T.3 A.1)
(07-Troy -5 27-0 06-Asu +8 33-26 05-ASU -3' 9-3...SR: Arkansas State 6-3)

*FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Western Kentucky 22—True, WKU hasn’t won a
game since John McCain was leading Barack Obama in the polls (Sept. 20), but
Hilltoppers hardly being outclassed by future Sun Belt foes, staying within
earshot vs. some of loop’s most competent sides (Troy, FAU, & MTSU) after
competitive effort vs. undefeated Ball State in early October. And since FIU
might find it difficult to summon extra energy after blowing late lead in gutwrenching
57-50 OT loss vs. rival FAU last week, no surprise if WKU makes it
interesting again. (05-FIU (NL) 38-35...SR: EVEN 1-1)

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
(H.A. Chapman Stadium - Tulsa, Oklahoma)
TULSA 40 - East Carolina 35—While the Pirates sewed up C-USA’s
weaker East Division a few weeks ago, Tulsa needed a narrow win at Marshall
last Saturday (combined with Rice’s victory over front-running Houston) to earn
the West’s spot in the conference title game for third time in last 4 years.
As usual, the case for the Golden Hurricane pretty much begins and ends
with its prolific attack (No. 1 in total offense, No. 2 in scoring offense), as clever
coordinator Gus Malzahn’s creative scheme has racked up 78 TDs & nearly
7000 yards this season. It would not be a major surprise if Tulsa’s wellbalanced
offense eventually overwhelms an East Carolina defense that has
been thinned by key injuries.However, taking points with the Pirates appears
to be higher-percentageplay. While ECU’s overall performance vs. the spread
has taken a downturnthis season, HC Skip Holtz is still 19-7 as an underdog
since taking the helm atGreenville in ’05. And, since savvy senior QB Patrick Pinkney
has enoughweapons to do substantial damage to the very vulnerable
Hurricane defense
(44th in nation), pesky Pirates likely to take this one the distance.
CABLE TV—ESPN
(06-Tulsa -2' 31-10 05-TULSA -9' 45-13...SR: Tulsa 5-2)

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
(Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, Florida)
Virginia Tech 19 - Boston College 13—This is fourth clash between Tech
& BC in last two campaigns, with Eagles capturing both regular-season
meetings, but Hokies prevailing in last year’s conference title game.
With familiarity factor at work (in addition to two bad-ass defenses), favor
“under” more than either side. Neither of these offenses has mustered more
than 28 points in any of its last 7 games, and BC is down to talented but raw RS
frosh Dominique Davis at QB. However, rock-ribbed Eagle defense (only 87
ypg rushing) matches up very well against bread-and-butter Hokie ground
game, and ball-hawking BC (33 takeaways—2nd most in nation) will be ready
to pounce on any mistakes from still-learning Tech soph QB Tyrod Taylor.
Still, with both teams likely playing it close to the vest on offense,
placekicking could end up being a decisive factor, and Hokie sr. Dustin Keys (20
of 25 FGs) has a lot more range than Eagles’ sr. counterpart Steve Aponavicius,
who’s hit just 7 of his 13 attempts from 30 or more yards. TV—ABC
(08-BOS. COL. 28-Va. Tech 23...B.22-14 V.38/150 B.37/82 B.16/32/3/218 V.12/27/1/90 B.2 V.0)
(07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)
(07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)
(08-BC -3 28-23; 07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR:Tech 9-7)

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
(Georgia Dome - Atlanta, Georgia)
Florida 35 - Alabama 17—Granted, we haven’t been presented with many
“slugger vs. boxer” analogies in Florida games this season. That’s because the
Gators haven’t had to deal with the sort of physical, pounding “O” in combo with
a righteous ”D” as presented by Nick Saban’s unbeaten Alabama.
By the same token, however, the Crimson Tide has been mostly feasting
upon transitional offenses and shaky opposing QBs in SEC West...hardly the
case presented by roaring Florida. Indeed, Gators’ recent demolition run has
included humiliations of competent defenses such as Kentucky, Georgia, and
South Carolina. And no team outside of the NFL attacks with as much speed
as does Urban Meyer’s deep and versatile spread, which hardly figures to skip
a beat even if homerun threat Percy Harvin is limited or otherwise compromised
by high ankle sprain. That’s because other weapons Chris Rainey (8.0 ypc!) &
Jeff Demps (9.6 ypc...yikes!) equally adept at creating fireworks, while
Heisman QB Tim Tebow (25 TDP, just 2 picks in ‘08!) has been nearly flawless
since Florida’s lone slip on banana peel in late September vs. Ole Miss.
Not as convinced that Bama QB Wilson will be able to match scoring shots,
especially since voracious Gator “D” likely to wreck Tide’s offensive balance by
ganging up on RBs Coffee & Ingram. And don’t mind laying reasonable number
with Florida, since Gators are a near-spotless 10-1 vs. the line despite imposing
imposts each week. TV—CBS
(06-FLORIDA -15 28-13 05-ALABAMA +3' 31-3...SR: Alabama 20-13)

BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP
(Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Missouri)
*Oklahoma 52 - Missouri 26—Missouri does have the edge of having
played Kansas last week on a sloppy, re-sodded field at Arrowhead, which is
likely to diminish some of the Sooners’ speed advantage. But Oklahoma is on
such a high-octane roll (11-1 SU, 9-2 vs. the number, 10-1 “over,” four straight
60-point games) that the pointspread must be very large before we could back
the 9-3 Tigers. As competent and well-coached as it is, 9-3 Mizzou stands 91st
in total defense and gave up 41 ppg in its three losses to Oklahoma State,
Texas & Kansas—all spread-offense teams with excellent QBs.
Such are the Sooners, with Sam Bradford (left hand will require surgery after
this game) hitting 68.2% for 4080 yds. with 46 TDs vs. only six interceptions.
OU beat MU 38-17 in the Big XII title clash LY indoors at San Antonio, pulling
away after a 14-14 first half. Perhaps only the weather and the field can keep the
Sooners from moving out earlier TY. OU owned a 166-98 rush edge in LY’s title
clash, and the Sooners’ big, veteran OL and RBs DeMarco Murray & Chris Brown
(a combined 1990 YR) figure to establish that advantage earlier this time around.
Although Tiger sr. QB Chase Daniel (75.1%, 34 TDs, 13 ints.) is relentless,
and WR/KR Jeremy Maclin a constant threat (88 recs.; 14 combined TDs),
Mizzou’s zone-blitz defense—still not among the speediest—will be repeatedly
and severely challenged by Oklahoma’s big-play offense (53.3 ppg to lead the
country), which has lost only 9 TOs all season, fewest in the nation. Both teams
possess excellent TEs (MU’s Chase Coffman 79 recs., 9 TDs; OU’s Jermaine
Gresham 50 recs., 12 TDs), but Gresham strikes for big plays, while Coffman
is overcoming a recent foot injury. TV—ABC
(07-OKLA. 41-Mo. 31...M.24-21 O.33/118 M.30/57 M.38/49/3/361 O.24/34/0/266 O.2 M.1)
(07-Okla. 38-MO. 17...M.23-19 O.40/166 M.32/98 M.23/39/1/219 O.18/26/0/209 O.0 M.0)
(07-OK. -12 41-31, Ok. -3 38-17 (at S.A.) 06-Ok. +1' 26-10...SR: Okla. 65-23-5)

THE GOLDSHEET

MINNESOTA by 24 over Detroit
CAROLINA by 16 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Francisco game

Minnesota 37 - DETROIT 13—Lions’ last decent chance to notch a win
TY? Games at Indy, vs. N.O., and at G.B. follow. Too bad the Vikes are 12-1
SU the last 13 meetings. Maybe the commissioner will help by suspending
Minny’s “Williams Brothers” DTs and DE Jared Allen (11 sacks). But even that
might not be enough for Detroit, which is 0-6 vs. the spread at home TY and
must deal with Adrian Peterson (1131 YR) after giving up nearly 300 YR to the
Titans on Thanksgiving. Detroit “over” last five due to its overwhelmed defense
(only two ints. TY!).
(08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)
(07-DET. 20-Minn. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(08-MINN. -13 12-10; 07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINN. -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 62-30-2)

OVER THE TOTAL SAN FRANCISCO 28 - N.Y. Jets 26—Niners now
a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 vs. the spread under Mike Singletary, and the Jets’
defense was exposed a bit last week by the Broncs. That N.Y. unit can play
better, but Brett Favre not helping matters with his 14 interceptions. S.F.’s
secondary among the more experienced in the league. Will take note, however,
that 49ers are “over” 4 of the 5 games under Singletary; Jets “over” last six TY!
(04-NY JETS -10 22-14...SR: San Francisco 8-2)

*CAROLINA 26 - Tampa Bay 10—Must expect home-loving Carolina
(6-1-2 vs. spread last 9 in Charlotte) to run the ball much better in rematch after
being out-rushed 189-99 in first meeting in T.B. Oct. 12. RBs DeAngelo
Williams (955 YR) & Jonathan Stewart (586) should own the day on the ground
in this battle for NFC South supremacy, and Steve Smith is the top WR on the
field. DE Julius Peppers (11 sacks) is back to being a primetime intimidator,
and the Bucs’ wideouts are not too scary vs. Panthers’ experienced press
coverage. CABLE TV—ESPN

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4
*SAN DIEGO 24 - Oakland 17—S.D. has dominated the series recently,
winning & covering the last 3, and covering 10 of the last 11. Can the Chargers
extend that domination in a disappointing season in which they seem bent on
playing just about everyone to the wire? Note that 3 of their 4 wins, however,
have been decided by double figures. But the S.D. defense is way down, and
LaDainian Tomlinson (only 3.7 ypc) misses old FB Lorenzo Neal, while the
slightly improving Raiders are 4-2 vs. spread on the road. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(08-San Diego -8 28-18; 07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-41-2)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Cincinnati 17—Colts are back to their winning ways (5
straight), but not exactly leaving much room for error (all by 6 or fewer). Indy
offense felt the absence of key C Jeff Saturday in last week’s late escape at
Cleveland (only Colt TD on fumble return). Expect a more characteristic effort
from Peyton Manning after his first TD-less game since ‘03! But huge favorites
usually not a high-percentage play in the NFL, and Indy only has one victory by
more than six points TY!
(2008 Preseason: Cincinnati +3 beat Indianapolis 27-7 at Indianapolis)

(06-INDIANAPOLIS -3' 34-16...SR: Indianapolis 15-8)
CHICAGO 30 - Jacksonville 20—Bears (including their coaching staff with its
decisions) seemed to be determined to play a game of “giveaway” last week at
Minnesota. But Chicago ought to be able to get Matt Forte (1005 YR) going
against the Jags’ defense. More importantly, the Bears’ penetrating front four
seems a good match vs. Jacksonville’s injury-thinned OL. Even in sometimes
windy & wintry Chicago, Bears have a knack of going “over” at home (4-1 TY;
19-5 last 24).

(04-JACKSONVILLE -7 22-3...SR: EVEN 2-2)
GREEN BAY 30 - Houston 28—G.B. defense appears to have flown south for
the winter, with the Packers having yielded 86 points in their last two games.
Houston (allowing 26.6 ppg TY prior to its Monday game vs. Jacksonville)
hardly much better. So, with all the quality receivers in this game, orchestrated
by the fertile offensive minds of Mike McCarthy & Gary Kubiak, prefer to look
“over,” with the Pack “over” 22-8 last 30; Texans “over” 22-9-1 prior to their
Monday nighter.
(04-Green Bay -3 16-13...SR: Green Bay 1-0)

TENNESSEE 28 - Cleveland 10—Browns have covered six straight as a dog.
But with No. 3 QB Ken Dorsey being forced into action (Derek Anderson’s knee
injury appears to have finished him for the season), and with the growing
likelihood of a HC/GM housecleaning in Cleveland after the season, we’re
reluctant to be enticed by the big pointspread vs. 11-1 Tennessee, even though the
Titans are a “low variance” team. Browns 28th vs. the rush through 11 games.
(05-CLE. -2' 20-14...SR: Cleveland 33-27)

BALTIMORE 19 - Washington 9—Washington’s power outage now acute,
with recent offensive blackout (only 4 TDs last 4 games; banged-up Clinton
Portis just 22 YR last week vs. NYG) jeopardizing the Skins’ once-buoyant
playoff hopes. Things don’t figure to get easier vs. Ray Lewis and the Baltimore
defense that hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in any of its first five games at
M&T Bank Stadium TY! Meanwhile, Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (280 YP, 2
more TDP, 0 ints. last week at Cincy) continues to soar. “Totals” alert–Skins
“under” 7-0-1 last 8.
(04-Baltimore -1 17-10...SR: Baltimore 2-1)

N.Y. GIANTS 27 - Philadelphia 13—Props to Donovan McNabb for silencing
the vultures on 610 WIP radio with four 4 TD passes Thanksgiving night vs.
Arizona. But the pattern has been mostly inconsistent for McNabb (6 TDP vs.
7 “picks” the five previous games). Meanwhile, Philly’s blitz-happy defensive
style not as likely to work vs. ultra-balanced N.Y. offense that pounded Eagles
for 219 YR in Giants’ 5-point Nov. 9 win at the Linc. Who needs Plaxico Burress
(Eli Manning’s first 300-yard game of year last week without him)? G-Men 7-0
SU and vs. line on latest uptick!
(08-Nyg 36-PHIL. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)
(07-Nyg 16-PHIL. 13...P.18-15 P.28/141 N.27/111 N.17/31/0/207 P.20/31/0/165 N.2 P.1)
(08-Giants +3 36-31; 07-GIANTS +2' 16-3, Giants +3 16-13...SR: NY Giants 81-67-2)

NEW ORLEANS 31 - Atlanta 20—Payback time for Saints, who lost 34-20
four weeks ago in Atlanta despite gaining 521 yards. Drew Brees suffered three
ints. in that game, something unlikely to re-occur in the rematch on N.O.’s
friendly home turf, where Saints are a heavenly 4-1 vs. the spread TY. RB
Pierre Thomas has emerged as a solid weapon; now Reggie Bush is back.
Brees (3870 YP) is after Marino’s single-season yardage record. Relentless
N.O. is “over” 7-4-1 TY and 20-10-1 last 31.
(08-ATL. 34-N. Orl. 20...N.25-18 A.36/113 N.17/105 N.31/58/3/414 A.16/23/0/248 A.0 N.0)
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. Orl. 34-ATL. 14...N.23-13 N.30/145 A.16/37 N.28/41/0/328 A.23/40/1/286 N.1 A.0)
(08-ATLANTA -1 34-20; 07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16, N. Orleans -3' 34-14...SR: Atlanta 45-34)

Buffalo 24 - Miami 19—With Trent Edwards suffering a strained groin last
week, it might be veteran J.P. Losman (11 of 17 off the bench vs. S.F.) for the
Bills in this game, being played at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, the indoor home of
the American League Blue Jays. Bills (350 total yards) played semi-well last
week vs. S.F., only to fall victim to two missed FGs and a fumble. Another loss
could finish their playoff hopes. Dolphin defense is likely to provide just enough
openings. (at Toronto, Canada)
(08-MIAMI 25-Buf. 16...19-19 B.27/119 M.27/52 M.22/30/0/306 B.21/35/1/220 M.1 B.3)
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(08-MIAMI +1 25-16; 07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 51-37-1)

DENVER 30 - Kansas City 26—Can’t lay points with Denver team whose
defense is still hurting and which has failed to cover its last 5 at home. The
underdog is now 9-1 in the Broncs’ last 10 games, while Chiefs 10-4 vs. the
number their last 14 away. Moreover, the development of QB Tyler Thigpen &
the return of RB Larry Johnson are providing K.C. with a fairly-competent
offense. Eleven of the last 14 in the series have gone “over.”
(08-K. CITY 33-Denver 19...D.22-17 K.33/213 D.22/94 D.29/49/2/352 K.21/28/0/157 K.1 D.2)
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)
(08-K. CITY +9' 33-19; 07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 53-44)

ARIZONA 37 - St. Louis 16—Maybe the return of RB Steven Jackson signals
more competitive efforts forthcoming from St. Louis, which at least “had a look”
at a possible victory in the second half last week for first time in more than a
month. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. Jackson was available when Arizona
stomped the Rams by 21 at the Edward Jones Dome Nov. 2. Marc Bulger had
3 more picks last week, and St. Louis hasn’t scored more than 16 in its last 6
games. Potent Cards need one more win to clinch NFC West.
(08-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 13...A.24-13 A.33/177 S.20/61 A.23/34/0/333 S.16/33/2/170 A.0 S.1)
(07-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 31...24-24 S.23/123 A.31/102 A.21/41/2/281 S.24/43/3/252 A.0 S.0)
(07-ARIZ. 48-St. Lou. 19...A.25-13 A.31/123 S.24/75 A.23/39/2/300 S.14/30/3/159 A.0 S.0)
(08-Arizona -3 34-13; 07-Arizona -3' 34-31, ARIZONA -6 48-19...SR: St. Louis 31-27-2

Dallas 24 - PITTSBURGH 22—Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo
back at the controls, with his anticipation, quick release, and mobility boosting
the Dallas aerial game to one of the best in the league. Cowboys now control
their own fate to make the playoffs, and the early reports on the Thanksgiving
injuries of RB Marion Barber (toe) and LB DeMarcus Ware (knee; 15 sacks TY)
are both positive. With Steelers also back in a groove, would tend to look “over”
(Pittsburgh 4-2 “over” at home TY; 45-16-1 last 62).
(04-Pittsburgh +3 24-20...SR: Dallas 15-14)

*New England 24 - SEATTLE 16—Even though Seattle is a well-coached
team laced with playoff veterans, it continues to suffer key losses, the latest
being starting C Chris Spencer & fiery RG Mike Wahle (check status of both).
Thus, QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) continues to take a pounding (7 sacks
on Thanksgiving). N.E. QB Matt Cassel (praised as a quick study) got a lesson
from the Steelers’ zone blitz week ago. Can he deal with the NFL’s noisiest
field? Note that Seattle has played five straight “unders.” TV—NBC
(04-NEW ENGLAND -4 30-20...SR: EVEN 7-7)