MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON any college home dog with a
winning record if they won 8 or more
games last season and were favored
by 25 > points in their last game
versus a foe that is not undefeated.
Play On: HAWAII WARRIORS
ATS W-L Record Since 1980:14-2 (88%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The Chicago Bears are 0-14 SU and ATS
in Game Thirteen when their win percentage
is less than .700 on the season
There have been a total of 31 college football same-season
rematches where one team beat the other in the fi rst game.
In 25 of the 31 rematches, the team who lost the fi rst game
either won the game or played closer in the rematch game!
Thursday, December 4th
RUTGERS over Louisville by 16
Did anyone catch that freight train tearing threw Piscataway? It’s Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights and they’re taking no prisoners during an impressive
5-game winning streak. They have also covered 6 of 7 and show no signs
of slowing down this week, boasting a healthy 5-1 ATS mark in their Last
Home Game when playing with revenge. Schiano’s crew is also 7-0 against
the number with revenge versus a sub .500 foe. And thanks to Louisville’s
4-game losing skid that’s seen its defense shredded for 132 points, that’s
exactly where Kragthorpe’s Redbirds reside – under the water level. The
visitors desperately need a win to become bowl eligible but, at 6-6, that may
not even be enough to guarantee an invitation. With the series visitor 0-3
SU and ATS recently, we’ll be jumping on the bandwagon…err, freight train,
known as Rutgers. All aboard!
Friday, December 5th
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
Ball St over Buffalo by 13
Can’t blame the Gonads if they don’t go ‘balls-out’ in tonight’s MAC
championship. After all, while a win does complete a perfect 13-0 campaign
for the 12th-ranked Cardinals, they’ll likely be relegated to a bowl game
south of January 1st. Turner Gill’s Bulls appear to be a dangerous dog in this
spot as our trusty database informs us that championship dogs of more than
6 points who score 21 or more points are a sterling 14-3 ATS – and the Bulls
have lit up the scoreboard for 21 or more in all but one game this season. Oh,
we should also inform you about this other interesting tidbit: teams in MAC
title games off 3 SU wins are just 1-5 SU and 0-4-2 ATS. Throw in the fact
that undefeated favorites of 17 or less points are 1-5 ATS in championship
games and it looks like the men of Muncie enter this showdown with the
proverbial noose around their necks. We’re not quite ready to run with the
Bulls so we’ll opt for a slow jog instead.
Saturday, December 6th
Navy over Army by 14
In a desperate bid to attract viewers to the annual battle for the
Commander-In-Chief trophy, CBS is actually promoting this weekend’s
Army-Navy game as “one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports.”
Uh… can you run that by us one more time? Yes, we are a nation at war
and it may be considered disrespectful to downplay the signifi cance of
Saturday’s matchup but we honestly don’t know a single person without
a sizable wager on the outcome who’s going to watch this mind-numbing
scrum. However, we can tell you that our ticket will have ‘NAVY’ stamped
all over it in plain view. We’re aware that the QB with the impossibleto-
spell-or-pronounce last name may not be manning the helm for the
Middies but that’s not a problem. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs, who had looked
impressive coming off the bench in 3 straight games, got his fi rst start last
week against a tough Northern Illinois defense and rushed for 124 yards
en route to the Mids’ 16-0 win. He also directed his offense to scoring
drives on its fi rst two possessions while hogging the ball for more than
17 minutes in the fi rst half. Yes, we’re aware Navy has locked up a bid
to appear in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C. but that
won’t lessen their intensity here in a bid to secure the Academy’s 6th
straight CIC Trophy. Not only are the swabbies a super 10-1 as chalk with
rest, they’re an outstanding 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 5-plus years
versus Military opposition. No doubt that Army’s improved on both sides
of the ball this year; in fact, both teams have posted remarkably similar
numbers in yards gained and allowed. But the Middies are far less likely to
beat themselves, racking up 27 takeaways this season for a +14 turnover
margin compared to Army’s -12 TO embarrassment. Navy also converts a
higher percentage of 3rd-down situations, averages 1.1 yards more per
play than the Cadets and just so happens to catch Army marching straight
down the path to pointspread oblivion: the Black Knights are a woeful
1-17 SU and 2-16 ATS with rest versus an opponent with a win percentage
of > .333. With the Midshipmen outscoring the infantry by 16 PPG while
navigating a much tougher schedule, we think it’s time to go full speed
ahead with the Annapolis armada. Sail on, sail on, sailor…
UCONN over Pittsburgh by 4
Jeez, as much as we’ve ragged on Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt
this season the fact is Wanny’s Panthers are sitting at 8-3 and poised to lead
their Steel City fans to a bowl game for the fi rst time since 2005, the year
then-coach Walt Harris’ skein of 5 straight bowl appearances was snapped.
Pittsburgh has fueled its recent turnaround by winning the close games: 4
of the Black Cats’ 8 wins have come by 1, 5, 3 and 4 points. The visitors are
looking to settle the score for last season’s 34-14 drubbing, losing outright
to UConn as 7.5 point home chalk but Pitt may still be celebrating its second
straight win over West Virginia in their fabled ‘Backyard Brawl’ (Panthers just
2-5 ATS away after WVU). Regardless of the intangibles surrounding today’s
game, both defenses had better be prepared for some smashmouth football
– Connecticut’s Donald Brown and Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady” McCoy are
two of the nation’s most hard-nosed, relentless running backs. The Huskies
have cashed in 3 of the 4 most recent meetings and a UConn victory along
with some help from its friends could lead to a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the
conference with Pitt and West Virginia. This just in from our database: bowl
teams playing their Last Home Game with rest as dogs or favorites of less
than 4 points are a solid 23-12 ATS, including 9-3 off a loss. Look for Brown,
the NCAA’s leading rusher, to rebound from a sub-par outing against South
Florida and lead the Sled Dogs to win No. 8 on Senior Day.
WEST VIRGINIA over South Florida by 8
We’ve seen some unexpectedly disappointing performances this season by
decent teams – Tennessee, Fresno State and Purdue to name a few – but
few have slammed into the earth with a more resounding thud than the
battered Bulls of South Florida. With QB Matt Grothe back to direct a team
that had logged consecutive 9-4 bowl campaigns, the Bulls were expected
to stomp through the Big East china shop and emerge with a conference
championship. Adding to USF’s confi dence were a pair of upsets over
conference bear West Virginia – 21-13 as a 7-point home dog last year and
a 24-19 win here as 21-point mutts in ’06. But following a torrid 5-0 SU
start in ‘08, Grothe & company have stumbled badly in league play, going
2-4 SU and ATS. Even worse, if we toss out the 45 points the Bulls put on
lowly Syracuse, they’re averaging a mere 16.8 PPG against Big East foes.
That won’t get the job done against a bunch of double-revenging Hillbillies
eager to make superstar QB Pat White’s fi nal home game with West Virginia
one for the books (White is now college football’s all-time career rushing
QB). The Mounties will be doubly pissed, too, after blowing last week’s
game with Pitt (and a shot at the conference crown) in the closing seconds
at Heinz Field. It’s simple: we’d rather risk our loot on a WVU team that’s
4-0 SU at home off a previous home loss with White than ask the most
underachieving 7-4 squad in American to play with some heart. Lay it if
you play it.
CALIFORNIA over Washington by 31
With Alabama versus Florida starting about an hour after this one, my
guess is that Nielsen is going to report there was one viewer for this game
– and that was Ty Willingham’s aunt. We do think the Huskies will play hard
in Tyrone’s send-off but how do you back the only team in the FBS that’s
been outgained in EVERY contest this season – and lost the Crapple Bowl to
pathetic Washington State? When they are facing a Cal squad that appears
to have already gone into hibernation, that’s how! The Berkeley Bears have
dropped 2 of their last 3 contests (all three ITS) and are just 1-7 ATS their last
8 regular games with rest. These guys might be smarter than the average
bear, but Boo Boo, we ain’t layin’ 5 TDs with this sleep-walking bunch. Take
it if you absolutely must play it.
Usc over UCLA by 28
Remember those posters and print ads that Neuheisel and the Bruins
produced early in the season promoting UCLA football? We have a feeling
that the ones that didn’t end up as trash liners in the Memorial Coliseum
garbage cans are hanging in the USC locker room. With a trip to the Rose
Bowl on the line, Carroll really doesn’t need much ammo to win this one…
especially with a smothering “D” that has held 7 opponents to season low
yardage. To steal a line from one of our favorites, Maxwell Smart, “Would
you believe a kid on a bicycle with a BB gun?” could probably slow down a
Bruins offense that is averaging less than 20 PPG on the season. Both teams
have numbers to support their case. The Trojans boast a 5-1 ATS mark as
chalk off a non-conference SU win of 21 or more points while the Bruins
check in at 4-0 ATS in their Last Home Game – plus they’re 5-0 as HD’s of 7 or
more points. The big number looks just about right but it’s only moving in
one direction (upward) and that will likely keep us leaning to the dog.
ARIZONA over Arizona State by 11
Dennis Erickson’s crew needs this one to become bowl eligible but they
might not have enough fi repower to get it done. Don’t be fooled by last
week’s 34-9 “phony” win over UCLA as the Sun Devils were held to just 122
yards total offense and relied on their defense for a majority of those points.
However, we’re not “wild” about these Arizona Cats, either, as they bring a
2-12 ATS Last Home Game mark into this contest – and they’re also a moneyburning
3-17 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 points. An interesting
side note to this desert battle: the Sun Devils’ 5th-year SR QB Rudy Carpenter
has never lost to the Wildcats. We’re just going to watch this one to see if
Rudy can get one for the thumb. Pass.
Cincinnati over HAWAII by 3
It’s only fi tting that the Bearcats should be rewarded with a sun-splashed
Hawaiian vacation before heading off to their fi rst-ever BCS bowl game
in January. A win here will push Cincy’s SU record to 21-5 under 2nd-year
coaching phenom Brian Kelly but pocketing the ATS dough may not be
so easy. Teams off a home game playing their fi nal game of the season in
Hawaii are 5-10 SU and ATS when the Warriors own a win percentage of
.500 or greater. UH also takes protecting its home turf very seriously, going
10-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 20 or less points. Yes, Cincinnati is
4-0-1 off a SU Big East home win of 20 or more points and the ‘Cats are 14-1-
1 ATS off back-to-back home games – but none of those contests involved a
layover in Honolulu en route to a big bowl game on the mainland. With the
visitors possibly looking to rest key players and avoid injury, we’ll take a cue
from this week’s AWESOME ANGLE and side with the Grass Skirts today.
ADDED GAMES
TROY over Arkansas St by 11
Though the fi nal days of the college football season leave us with a tinge
of sadness, there’s always a silver lining to the dark cloud: we don’t have to
spend any more time analyzing games for a bunch of Sun Belt garbage scows
that shouldn’t even be on the board. Even so, we’ll roll up our sleeves, crank
up the database and take our medicine like big boys. The numbers do not
favor the hosts today. Troy is a miserable 1-7 ATS during the regular season
when playing with rest and they continue to fail in Last Home Game scenarios,
going 1-6 ATS of late (0-3 SUATS L3Y). The Red Wolves have covered 3 of the
last 4 get-togethers and they owe the Trojans big-time for last year’s 27-0
home shutout loss. Arky State also needs to beat Troy today to tie for the SBC
title but with the Alabama Trojans winning the stat wars in 10 of 11 games
this season, we don’t see that happening. You’re on your own here.
FLORIDA INT’L over W Kentucky by 3
If you live near the Miami area, there’ll be plenty of good seats available
for today’s merciful season-ender between these two underachievers. The
rusty 2-9 Hilltoppers haven’t played a game in three weeks and will drag
along an 0-3 ATS ball and chain as favorites or dogs of less than 10 points.
Having dropped to 4-7 after last week’s overtime loss to Florida Atlantic,
FIU has no shot at a winning season and will probably just go through the
motions before heading off to a South Beach keg party. The not-so-golden
Panthers have been favored by more than 6 points TWICE since coming on
board – and they lost the whole game both times. FIU also bears the added
stigma of being installed as home chalk off an OT loss, always a recipe for
pointspread disaster. Put a gun to our head and we’ll lean to the dog!
C - U SA CHAMPIONSHIP
TULSA over E Carolina by 16
Note to Hurricane head coach Todd Graham: add David Bailiff to your
Christmas shopping list. Were it not for Rice’s stirring upset over Houston,
Tulsa would not be playing this week. Instead, they’ll host East Division
winner East Carolina at H.A. Chapman Stadium for the C-USA cheese. And
like a storm a-brewing, the numbers are strong in the Hurricane’s favor.
Aside from owning a 3-0 SU and ATS series mark against the Pirates, Tulsa
should also like the fact that the home team in C-USA championship game
history is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Granted, ECU head coach Skip Holtz is 19-
5 ATS when taking points but his club is on a 2-8 ATS skid in its last ten games
(the Bandits managed an 0-6 ATS effort as a visitor this season). We also
note a disturbing 10-31-1 ATS mark as a dog for ECU in games in which they
surrender more than 38 points. A quick check of Graham’s dossier fi nds that
Tulsa has averaged 50 PPG at home under his direction. In fact, they’ve lit it
up to the tune of 60.5 PPG at Chapman Stadium this season. After taking it
on the chops at UCF in the title game last year in a 44-25 setback, we’ll issue
a Hurricane warning in Northeast Oklahoma this Saturday. Tulsa Tempest!
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
Va Tech over Boston College by 3
Play it again, Sam. That could certainly be the theme surrounding the ACC
Championship game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this Saturday.
These same two teams squared off in last year’s title tilt when the Hokies
captured a 30-16 win, a game in which they were outstatted 389-300.
Normally that would set the table for a revenge call to BC. The problem is
they already extracted their piece of fl esh in a 28-23 victory at Chestnut Hill
earlier this season. Thus it becomes advantage, Frank Beamer. And Beamer
is at his best when he’s looking to avenge a conference loss where he stands
20-4-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. That weaves nicely into the fact that
the team looking to settle a score is 2-0 SU and ATS in ACC championship
games. The Eagles closed strong, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their fi nal four
games despite losing starting QB Chris Crane to a broken collarbone two
games ago. The bottom line here is the ever-sagacious SMART BOX comes to
Tech’s aid and Beamer-ball is at its best in big games. As Ilsa would have said
to Beamer, “Play it again, Frank.”
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
Florida over Alabama by 7
We don’t know who will ultimately be matched up in this year’s BCS dogand-
pony show for the ‘national championship’ but if today’s game even
remotely lives up to expectations, it could blow the BCS Bowl right out of
the water. Both Alabama coach Nick Saban and Florida leader Urban Meyer
are two of the college game’s biggest success stories, molders of aggressive
and physically overpowering squads that fi nd ways to impose their will on
their opponents (each man has won a national title with an SEC program).
However, both coaches own such combative personalities that they’re reviled
by the media and fans alike for their win-at-all-cost philosophy and refusal
to make nice during press conferences and interviews. Big deal… Saban and
Meyer are outstanding evaluators of talent in addition to being top-notch
motivators and the winner of this mega-showdown will have an opportunity
to claim a 3rd consecutive national crown for the Southeastern Conference.
As you might expect, each squad brings some solid pointspread credentials
to the table today. Bama has cashed 4 straight in the series, the Tide has
rolled to a near-fl awless 10-0-1 ATS record as dogs of 6 or more points off BB
SU wins since 1990 and Saban owns a 19-8 ATS log playing off consecutive
SUATS wins. Also, undefeated teams in conference championship games are
9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS of late (strangely 0-5 ATS if they allow conference foes
from Game Six out, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in SEC title games and head Gator
Meyer is 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS when tackling an undefeated opponent.
Alabama has earned its current position at the top of the BCS heap but this
year’s Florida team is clearly something special. Not only have the Gators
annihilated their last 8 adversaries by an average of 39.6 PPG, last week
they also became the fi rst team ever that was not undefeated to beat the
Florida State at home when the Seminoles were playing off a previous home
loss under Bobby Bowden (his teams had gone 23-0 SU under his tenure
since 1974). But even though Meyer’s dizzying array of offensive formations
makes the Alabama scheme look like it was taken straight from a bottle of
vanilla extract, the truth is both teams excel at running the ball and stopping
the run. That being the case, we just can’t lay doubles to the hungry, wellcoached
Crimson Tide. Gators chomp their way to the BCS title game but
Bama pockets the cash.
B I G 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma over Missouri by 16
Don’t mention this game to Longhorn fans: Texas will be watching the two
teams it beat this season play for the Big 12 championship and a possible
trip to the BCS title game. It’s just the latest in a sorry series of events that
will continue to plague college football until a playoff system is fi nally
approved. Just look at the opening round games if an 8-team playoff format
using the BCS ratings was in place right now – Alabama versus Penn State,
Oklahoma in a rematch with Texas Tech, Texas against undefeated Utah and
Florida versus USC. Wow! Instead, what many think we’ll get here is just
a glorifi ed scrimmage ending in yet another Sooner rout. A litany of ATS
numbers does little to challenge that expectation. Mizzou owns a lifeless
1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS mark in the last 19 meetings and the underdog has
cashed only 4 times in 12 tries in Big 12 championship games. Even worse for
the Tigers, they’re 16-73 ATS in games where they allow 35 or more points
– and Stoops’ troops have scored 35 or more in EVERY GAME this year. In
fact, OU’s powerful offense has scored an incredible 61 TDs in 71 tries in the
Red Zone this season and they may get to face Missouri without the Tigers’
all-world WR Jeremy Maclin, hurt last week in a loss to Kansas. But – and
it’s a really BIG but – despite all this overwhelming support in favor of the
Sooner juggernaut, they’ve still “got to play the game” and we think QB
Chase Daniel and company will not go quietly tonight. Coming off a lastminute
setback to the Jayhawks and burning to get even for last year’s 38-17
embarrassment by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, Mizzou could use
the Arrrowhead Stadium crowd support to major advantage. However, the
biggest reason we’re waffl ing here is the line: opening at 15.5 points, the
number has climbed to 18 and will probably go even higher before kickoff.
We’ll wait and see where things settle before pulling the trigger
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
5* BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Houston by 17
Now here’s a cold weather site we can sink our teeth into. There’s
nothing like the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to get the juices
fl owing. Much like Minnesota’s ‘must-win’ game against the Bears
last week, Green Bay fi ts the mold today. At 5-7 on the season, it’s
suddenly win or stay home time for the Packers. Enter Houston, fresh
off its climate-controlled Monday night division revenge win over
the Jaguars. With that we turn to our trusty database for just the
numbers that fi t this game like an abacus. It seems that since 1980
the Cheeseheads use their home environment to a major advantage
this time of the year where they are 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home
favorites in December, including 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent
off a win! They are also 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS at Vince’s place from
Game Ten out when playing off a SU favorite loss. Couple that with
the Texans’ 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS mark on the road off a win in their
history, including 0-5 SU and ATS against .500 or less opposition, and
you can understand our craving for extra cheese. As you please.
4* BEST BET
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay by 14
To say life at home is sweet for residents of the NFC South Division this
season would be an understatement. That’s confi rmed by a staggering
21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS mark in 2008, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in
division duke-outs. That sets the table for tonight’s play… that and
our ever reliable PROVE IT ALL NIGHT Monday Night theory from
Marc Lawrence. The Bucs have been hot since the insertion of QB Jeff
Garcia, for sure. But they are just 1-10 ATS in December with a .500 or
greater record when coming in off a division game. Couple that with
the Panthers’ 21-2 ATS mark at home in SU division victories in their
franchise history and we have the makings of another big play from
the Boss. As he says, “If you want it, you take it, you pay the price…”
3* BEST BET
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3
It’s not easy building a case to fade the best team in the league but
we’re doing just that here with the Eagles today. After getting off
the .500 hump with an impressive win over the Cardinals Thanksgiving
evening (a 5* Playbook Best Bet), Andy Reid’s crew will look to avenge
a 36-31 home loss suffered a month ago. We’ve lauded Reid’s success in
division revenge on these pages. Simply put he’s in a class by himself in
these games, especially on the road where the Eagles are 10-4 SU and
12-2 ATS when avenging a division loss under Reid, including 7-0 SU
and ATS the last seven games! Tie that into the fact that teams riding a
7-game exact win streak who have covered the spread in each of their
last 3 games are just 2-10-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points and
just like that we have the makings of a live dog. No Big Blue here. Just
a nice and natural straight-up win for a hungry puppy. Eagles soar!
Thursday, December 4th
SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 8
Go fi gure. The Chargers beat the Raiders in Oakland, 28-18, as 8.5-point
favorites and come back home in the rematch at a price in the same
neighborhood! That’s how bad things are going for Norv Turner’s troops
these days. In fact, San Diego will need to win each of their fi nal four games
to avoid its fi rst losing season since 2001. We’d love to sink our teeth into
these underachievers but experience has taught us different. When a team
is going bad you NEVER want to lay double-digits with them. They tried it
when hosting the Chiefs a month ago and barely escaped with a 1-point win.
Sure, San Diego has dominated this series (10-1 ATS last eleven games) but
the Raiders counter with a 9-0 ATS mark as division dogs with revenge off a
division game when playing an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. Oakland’s
overland game – they gain 4.3 Yards Per Rush; Diego allows 4.0 Yards Per
Rush – becomes the edge in tonight’s affair. Turner drops to 12-26 ATS in his
NFL career as a division host.
Sunday, December 7th
INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati by 13
Okay. All those teams interested in squaring off against the Colts in this year’s
playoffs please step forward. We said… please step forward. Hmm. Where
are all the wannabes? Our best guess is they will be busy doing everything
in their power from now until season’s end to avoid any such confrontation.
With 5 straight wins in their pocket, there’s a real good chance Peyton’s
pals will be riding a 9-game win streak come January. Tony Dungy’s task will
be to keep his club fully focused, especially against the lightweights of the
league. And the battered and beaten Bengals certainly fi t that description
here today (wait until they host the Lions next Sunday!). While the Ponies
are 12-4 ATS in this series, they are just 1-2 ATS when laying 7 or more points.
And therein lies the complacency issue. Cincy’s inept offense is the worst
in the loop, averaging a mere 13 PPG and 233 YPG on the season… and
an even worse 11 PPG and 226 YPG without Carson Palmer behind center.
Thanks, but no thanks. We’ll pass.
Jacksonville over CHIGAGO by 3
Another matchup of two teams that have been colossal underachievers this
2008 season kicks off in the Windy City. Then again, Lovie Smith’s bunch
has basically fl atlined ever since losing XLI, going 13-15 SU and 12-15-1 ATS.
And if you’re into ‘Game Numbers’ then be sure to check out this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2! It fi ts nicely into Lovie’s 2-9-1 ATS mark in nondivision
scrapes against opponents off back-to-back losses, including 0-5 ATS
at home. Yes, we realize playing on the shore of Lake Michigan in December
is not an ideal antidote for struggling teams from Florida but the Jags are
17-7 ATS as road dogs under Jack Del Rio before Game Fourteen, including
4-0 ATS against a foe off a loss. In addition to going 8-0 ATS when taking
points off a road loss, they are also 10-3 SU and ATS in Game Thirteen in
their franchise history, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. Too many good numbers
to pass up here.
TENNESSEE over Cleveland by 10
Like a $29 suit, the Browns appear to be coming apart at the seams. And so
it goes for Romeo Crennel in what is likely his last season on the sidelines
in Cleveland. Losing his top two quarterbacks and a Pro Bowl tight end is
tough enough. Now he’s forced to bring cohesion to a team that plays with
as much chemistry as jailbirds on a prison break. Through it all the Browns
have had their moments in the sun this season. Witness all four wins coming
SU as underdogs, including the Giants’ only defeat this year. To their credit,
Tennessee rebounded nicely off their initial loss of the season with a wireto-
wire win over Detroit on Thanksgiving day. They do, however, close out
the season with a pair of division games and a tilt against Pittsburgh for
conference supremacy. Thus today’s game has the makings of a fl at spot. The
Browns have won and covered the last three meetings in the series and are
also 3-0 ATS on this fi eld. Take it if you must play it.
DETROIT over Minnesota by 1
Vikings leave the Hefty Pad with a much-needed Sunday night revenge win
over the Bears in their back pocket. Their mission today, should they choose
to accept it, would be to get into and out of the Motor City without busting a
gut from excessive laughter. To that we say STOP RIGHT THERE. If there is any
one game the listless Lions are going to win this season, it will likely be here
against Minnesota today (stop LOL). Let’s examine the situation, if we may.
For openers the Vikes have been outstatted in 3 of their last 4 road games. In
addition, their YPG from Game Eight out has slipped 45 net YPG since their Bye
Week. Small indicators, but indicators nonetheless. Then there’s this deal about
teams playing three consecutive home games off back-to-back home losses.
They’ve been a solid moneymaker over the years, including 7-0 SU and ATS the
last seven games! Toss in Daunte Culpepper’s vengeance against the team that
dissed him and the ole reliable ‘Ugly Pig’ factor and suddenly there’s a ray of
hope for these pussycats. There’s no doubt they have long suffered from a bad
case of the MMMM’s (Millen, Mornhinweg, Mariucci and Marinelli) but today
could be the day for the cowardly Lions. After all, the Tin Man got his heart; the
Scarecrow got a brain; and the Lion found his courage. All you need is a just a
pinch of each to make this play. Follow the yellow brick road…
BALTIMORE over Washington by 3
The Ravens continue to fl y under the radar in the eyes of the public. The
linesmakers, on the other hand, have grown quite fond of the Black Birds of
late and as a result this game is priced accordingly. This neighborhood brawl
pits two teams jockeying for playoff positioning with the underdog close to
dire straits. After a 4-1 SU and ATS start to the season, Skins’ supporters have
paid ‘the man’ 6 times in the last 7 games. On the other side of the coin,
Baltimore has brought home the bacon 6 of the last 7 weeks. As a result this
price has been heavily adjusted. Washington is at its best in games as a dog
after scoring single digits in its last game, going 10-1 ATS. With the Ravens in
the middle of a division sandwich and just 1-8 ATS off a double-digit SU and
ATS win in games before facing the Steelers, the take is on.
NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta by 7
The Saints’ disturbing loss at Tampa puts them back into ‘must-win’ mode
in this revenge rematch with the high-fl ying Falcons. And according to our
database they’ve got the numbers to make their case. That’s because 6-6
teams off one-loss exact are 12-3 SU and ATS in Game Thirteen of the season
when seeking revenge, including 5-0 SU and ATS this decade. Looking inside
the stats we fi nd a New Orleans squad that has outyarded ten of its twelve
opponents this season. Granted, they’ve failed miserably as division home
chalk over the years (2-12 ATS last 14) but they are 4-0 ATS with revenge
in this series and they catch Atlanta off a big win at San Diego last Sunday.
Look for the Dirty Birds to fall to 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in games off back-toback
SU and ATS wins. Bourbon Street!
NY Jets over SAN FRANCISCO by 7
The Flyboys jet out to the West Coast following last week’s debacle against
the Broncos hoping life on the road continues its winning ways this Sunday.
That’s where New York is 4-2 SU and ATS this season, including 3-0 SU and
ATS in its last three travels. Meanwhile, the Niners return home off last
week’s ‘inside-out’ win at Buffalo (won the game, 10-3, but were outgained
350-195). Home has NOT been where the money is for Frisco this season:
they’re just 2-4 SU and ATS. Given the fact that road teams off a SU home
favorite loss that was preceded by back-to-back SU and ATS road victories
are 8-3 ATS (5-0 ATS if off a spread loss of 14 or more points), look for Brett
to butter the bread.
BUFFALO over Miami by 4
Following a 4-0 start, Buffalo is having a diffi cult time paying the bills lately
as they enter today’s game on a 2-6 SU and ATS slide. This ailing squad is
hoping the Rogers Centre in Toronto will prove to be just what the doctor
ordered. At 6-6 on the season and off one-loss exact, they assume the same
identical Game Thirteen critical role outlined in the Saints game above. To
reiterate, these teams playing off one loss-exact and with revenge are 12-3
SU and ATS, including 5-0 ATS this decade. The revenge comes from a 25-16
loss in Miami, a loss that sent them into their current funk. The 7-5 Dolphins
have been hanging on by a thread, going 0-4 ATS in their last four contests.
No surprise here to see the Bills improve on their 7-1 ATS series mark north
of the border today.
DENVER over Kansas City by 7
Both teams came up big last week, each pulling off upset wins on the road.
The difference is one team will be prepping for the post-season, the other
for the golf course. The Broncos took it on the chin, 33-19, earlier this year
in Kansas City as 9-point favorites. They will lay a similar number here today
knowing they are 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS off a win against an opponent off a
double-digit SU underdog win. Ouch. They are also 1-8 ATS in December off
a double-digit ATS win. The Chiefs check in at 7-0 ATS on the road off a SU
division underdog win. Denver’s dominance as a host in this series (7-1 ATS last
8 games) quells thoughts of snapping the rubber band. Revenge be damned.
ARIZONA over St. Louis by 11
The Cardinals return to Glendale looking to get their playoff act back in
order, hosting a reeling Rams unit they walloped, 34-13, earlier this season.
St. Louis was without the services of their two main weapons, QB Marc
Bulger and RB Steven Jackson. They’re back and that makes St. Louis
formidable. The problem is the Rams’ nauseating 1-11 ATS mark in division
games when they own a losing record. Then again, Arizona has lost the
money 12 games in a row at home with a .500 or greater record in division
games! Tough call.
Dallas over PITTSBURGH by 1
The Boys are back. Yes, Dallas is back and right in the NFC playoff hunt
thanks to the return of QB Tony Romo. Is it a coincidence they are 3-0 SU and
ATS since Romo re-entered the starting lineup three weeks ago? We think
not. While Wade Phillips may not be Tom Landry, the fact of the matter is
the Cowboys are 10-2 SU in regular season games following their Bye Week
under his lead. The Steelers turned a tight game with New England into a
2nd-half rout last week thanks to a strong defensive performance. Pay close
attention to the line in this game as the Burgher Boys are 1-10 SU and ATS
as favorites of less than 3 points when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. Like we said, the Boys are back.
New England over SEATTLE by 8
There are times when a coach in a certain role is worth more than any current
trend has to offer. Such is the case here today. We’ve outlined the fact that
teams have struggled in games after taking on Mile Tomlin’s Steelers (now
9-18 SU and 6-21 ATS). The overriding factor here is Bill Belichick, a coach
that does not take well to losing. That’s evidenced by his 13-1 ATS mark on
the road with the Patriots when playing off one-loss exact, including 9-0 SU
and ATS the last nine games. With the Seahawks going through the motions
and simply spinning their wheels, look for Belichick to improve to 14-2 SU
and 15-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career against NFC West Division
opposition. Again.
5* OVER HOUSTON / GB
4* UNDER INDY / CLEVE
3* UNDER BALTIMORE / WASH
THE SPORTS MEMO
MARTY OTTO
ALABAMA VS. FLORIDA -10 O/U 50.5
Recommendation: Over
Tim Tebow is a man of his word. After losing to Ole Miss the Gators’ QB told the media no team in the country would play harder than his team the rest of the season. I’d say he’s been true to his word. No one has come close to touching the Gators in recent weeks at 7-0 SU and ATS since the loss to the Rebels. The offense has posted 30 or more points in 10 straight games and has current streak of seven straight games with at least 42 points. Special teams have led to direct scores and the defense has forced plenty of turnovers leading to short fields and easy points. No reason to believe those trends will stop this week even against a good Alabama defense. Florida’s strength is in its speed and Urban Meyer will find a way to get his guys the ball away from Bama’s massive interior players. I’m projecting at least 35 points from the Gators meaning we only need 17 from Alabama to get this one up and over the total. That shouldn’t be an issue as the Tide feature a very strong ground game of their own and have scored at least 17 in every single game this year.
BRENT CROW
EAST CAROLINA AT TULSA -13.5
Recommendation: Tulsa
East Carolina got off to an impressive start this season, beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. It seemed like the Pirates would dominate Conference USA, but for much of the conference season, it was a struggle. Injuries ravaged the defense and the offense never really found a playmaker to help out quarterback Patrick Pinkney, who had turnover problems for much of the year. Before last week’s 53-21 home win over UTEP, the Pirates had scored just 52 points in their previous four games, all against bad C-USA defenses. They will face another one this week at Tulsa. The catch is the Golden Hurricane have the best offense in the conference. That means ECU will more than likely be in a position of needing to trade scores. Tulsa has been nearly unstoppable at home over the past two years including a 5-0 SU and ATS mark this season. The scores of their home games were 56-14, 63-28, 77-35,49-19, and 56-7. I have no doubt that Tulsa will score 40 or more again this week against the young East Carolina defense. This will result in too much pressure for an inconsistent Pirates offense to produce. Lay the points.
ED CASH
CINCINNATI -7.5 AT HAWAII
Recommendation: Cincinnati
With neither team technically having anything to play for (bowl berths locked up) we’ll turn to the basic fundamentals and overall talent as a barometer of what to expect. While Cincinnati is clearly the better team, it is the things they do best that has me looking their way this weekend. The Bearcats have one of the best pass defenses in the nation with a ball-hawking secondary capable of multiple interceptions. The Hawaii pass game has been a mess all season and newly appointed signal caller Greg Alexander, though an upgrade, has done nothing more than feast on bad defenses. When Hawaii does face a decent defense, the numbers are alarming. They scored 10 points vs. Florida, 7 vs. Oregon State and 7 vs. Boise State. Statistically, Cincinnati is on par with all three of those schools. On offense, the Bearcats have been very consistent, scoring between 24 and 30 points in their last five games, all wins. Let’s ignore the motivation factor for both sides when looking at this game and keep it simple by backing the better squad. Cincinnati heads to the Orange Bowl on a positive note with a win on the Island.
ERIN RYNNING
KANSAS CITY +9 AT DENVER
Recommendation: Kansas City
Divisional rematch here as the Chiefs knocked off the Broncos, 33-19 as a nine-point underdog, in their first meeting in Arrowhead. No question, the Broncos have shown a real Jekyll and Hyde personality this season. They’re able to compete with the best teams in the league but consistently play down to the level of the bottom feeders as well. Obviously, with an inability to stop anyone from a defensive perspective, many of their games have simply turned into shootouts. They rank near the bottom in just about every statistical category on defense and even the most putrid of offenses can’t help but trade scores. Denver’s home field advantage has also taken a hit compared to past editions. One could look at the disappearance of the once dominating run game as the culprit. How many times did we used to see the Broncos jump out to a big lead and just pound the ball the rest of the way? That ability is clearly no longer there. Are the Chiefs a good football team? No. But they’ve been game for most of the season despite the brutal record and we’ll gladly take the points with them this weekend
TEDDY COVERS
WASHINGTON AT BALTIMORE N/L
Recommendation: Baltimore
At some point, the betting marketplace has to start giving the Baltimore Ravens some respect. But it hasn’t happened yet, making Baltimore a clear choice on Sunday Night as they take on the banged up, fading Redskins. After their ugly loss to the Giants last Sunday, Washington has now lost three of its last four. In fact, since their 4-1 start, the Redskins have been a pointspread disaster area, covering the number only once in their last seven games -- a one-point cover against the hapless Lions. When Washington has lined up against a defensive-minded, physical opponent, their offense has been non-existent, producing only six points against the Steelers, 10 against the Cowboys and seven against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven ball games scoring at least 27 points in each one of those six wins and covers. Baltimore’s defense has lived up to its stellar reputation and the offense is finally a force to be reckoned with as well. Joe Flacco is playing like a seasoned veteran and the complimentary running game has been nearly unstoppable.Baltimore’s four home wins and covers have come by a combined nine touchdowns and their lone loss came by a single field goal against the mighty Titans.
FAIRWAY JAY
PHILADELPHIA +8 AT NY GIANTS
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The NY Giants (11-1) continue their roll as the NFL’s best team and biggest money maker (10-2 ATS). The G-Men have won and covered seven-straight games, and we cashed an “under the total” winner as part of our big 5-1 NFL weekend when the NYG beat Washington 23-7. Now returning home in the middle of a three-game division set, the Giants have nearly secured home field throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives. Philadelphia lost to the Giants 36-31 a month ago as the Giants maintained a 2:1 time-of-possession advantage while running the ball for over 200 yards on the worn down Philadelphia defense. The Eagles still have one of the top-3 yards-per-play defenses and are No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with their high-pressure and blitzing schemes. Philadelphia is statistically solid on both sides of the ball and they showed their strength on Thanksgiving when they knocked the stuffing out of Arizona, 48-20. The Eagles piled up 437 yards and a NFL season-high 31 first downs and I expect that momentum to continue with a competitive division contest against the Giants.
ROB VENO
PHILADELPHIA +8 AT NY GIANTS
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The first game between these teams this season saw the Giants pound their way to 219 rushing yards and a 36-31 win at Lincoln Financial. Aside from that contest a month ago and one versus Washington back in early October, the Eagles run defense has been outstanding yielding just 70 yards and 3.0 per carry in their other 10 games. Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson figures to commit to containing the Giants ground game here and any success should keep the Eagles in this all the way. After a week of intense media bashing, Philadelphia came out and played tremendously on Thanksgiving night posting their most balanced effort of the season. Expect that performance to ignite this team and their peaking confidence, determination and talent levels are likely to generate another strong showing here. New York is in their seventh consecutive game against playoff caliber competition going a remarkable 6-0 straight up and against the spread. However, this game holds far more importance for the opponent and the situation signals strongly toward the Eagles. Desperation sets in and Philly comes through with a cover as a high-priced underdog.
TIM TRUSHEL
MIAMI AT BUFFALO -1
Recommendation: Buffalo
The Bills have moved their home game to Toronto for the first ever regular season game played in Canada. They hope to get back on track after reversing a 5-1 start with a 1-5 run to move to 6-6 on the season. Last week against the 49ers, the Bills drove the ball very effectively in the loss. They failed to convert in the red zone with two missed field goals and two other fruitless drives. They played very poorly and were beset with injuries. Meanwhile Miami bounced back off a tough loss to New England with a workmanlike win over the Rams. It wasn’t pretty but it got the job done. Both of these teams are “slightly better than average” but neither team is a strong playoff contender or dominating in any one facet. The reality of these two teams is that the team in the more favorable situation is likely to win the ball game. We like the situation here for Buffalo as they catch the Dolphins in off a satisfying road win. Teams in this situation off a road win as a favorite and then on the road the following week as a dog are 0-4 this season and 27-42 ATS since 2001. Trent Edwards’ sore groin forced him to the bench, but against the Dolphins we tab J.P. Losman as a capable replacement. The Bills fighting for their season will earn the victory
DONNIE BLACK
NY JETS AT SAN FRANCISCO +4
Recommendation: San Francisco
San Francisco continues to put forth maximum effort for interim head coach Mike Singletary, scoring their second SU win and third ATS victory in four games under the fiery head man. The Niners will ride that momentum back to the Bay Area where they have a chance to knock off another playoff contender from the AFC East. In addition to a bad situational spot for the Jets (cross country trip with a key divisional game on tap next week) this is a tricky fundamental matchup. Their 30th ranked pass defense has given up 250 yards per game and will certainly be tested by Mike Martz’ passing scheme. Shaun Hill has been a solid replacement to the turnover prone JT O’Sullivan, leading the 49ers with as many TDs, a third of the INTs, and a better completion percentage in half the starts. Plus, with Frank Gore getting more touches, the 49ers have limited the exposure of their defense. Brett Favre leads the NFL with 14 INTs and 10 fumbles (though he hasn’t lost a lot of them) which will likely lead Mangini to play it a little more conservative on the road this week. As such we’ll side with the scrappy Niners plus the points.
JARED KLEIN
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS -3
Recommendation: New Orleans
The NFC South’s home field advantage has been simply amazing this season. The division as a whole is an outstanding 22-2 SU and 16-6-2 ATS on their home turf. The Saints have certainly partaken in the festivities with a 5-1 SU and ATS mark in the Superdome. This week they’ll face an Atlanta team that has had a fairly comfortable road schedule against a lot of mediocre offenses. This week, they’ll need to be ready from the get-go. New Orleans boasts the top offense (405.3 ypg) and passing game (316.9 ypg) in the NFL. At home is where the Saints are clearly at their best. In six games, they’ve averaged 34 ppg and have performed much stronger on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta’s defense is good but not great and at times has been susceptible to the pass. In the first matchup, Drew Brees threw for 416 yards but had three interceptions. We expect similar numbers minus the miscues this week as Brees has tossed only four of his 14 picks at home. It may be a lost cause with three teams ahead of them in the division but the situationals call for the Saints to prevail in this matchup.
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEST VIRGINIA 34 - South Florida 13 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is still
minus 7. Quite a comedown for the Bulls' following their recent exploits. They have averaged
only 14 ppg in their last 3 contests, covering exactly 3 times all season, with their
leader, QB Grothe throwing just 15 TDs for the year, with 12 interceptions. The Mountaineers
say good-bye to their brilliant QB Pat White, who is a solid 17/6 overhead, as well as a
threat to take it the distance any time. The WV "D" has held 6 of its last 8 foes to 12 ppg, &
has vivid memories of LY's embarrassment. Mounties wind up in style.
RATING: WEST VIRGINIA 89
ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 10 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Line opened at Arizona minus 9½, and is now minus
10½. Even the most casual fan is aware of the huge spread edge of the visitor & underdog
in this series, with the guest standing at 13-3 ATS, & the dog 12-3. So, admittedly, bucking
such history is not normally our modus operandi. However, this SunDevil edition has been
a major disappointment, ranking 107th in rushing (ran only on woeful WashSt & Washington).
Not a single offensive TD in LW's win over Ucla. 'Cats just the opposite, averaging 38
ppg, with the 26th best "D" in the nation, & also have the revenge hammer.
RATING: ARIZONA 89
Oklahoma 55 - Missouri 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 14, and is now minus 16½.
Large line move is hardly surprising, in light of the absolutely awesome accomplishments
that the Sooners have displayed of late. Check posting an astounding 59.5 ppg since their
loss to Texas, & topping 60 pts in their last 4 games. Sure, Bradford is somewhat hampered
with that thumb injury on his non-throwing hand, but was just brilliant in last week's demolition
of an outstanding OkieSt squad, & stands at 46/6 for the season. Tig QB Daniel also
superb, but has just 1 TD pass in his last 2 games vs the Okies. Romp!
RATING: OKLAHOMA 88
Florida 38 - Alabama 20 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Line opened at Florida minus 10½, and is now minus 9½. As we
wrote on Pointwise, these elite squads are at the absolute top of their games. Sure, bucking
the perfect & top-ranked Tide is a bit unsettling, especially considering the fact that
'Bama has a 32-7 ppg edge in its current 5-0 spread run. Also difficult to fathom the No 1
team in the land, as a 9½ pt dog. But similar to Oklahoma above, the Gators have been a
thing to behold, with their 344-78 pt edge in their 7 lined games since their only loss (1-pt),
covering all 7 by an average of 20 pts ATS! Tebow (25/2) the perfect leader.
RATING: FLORIDA 88
New England 33 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 4½, and is still minus 4½.
That's right, as per usual, we're jumping on the Pats off a loss. Thus far, that simple system
has paid off 4 times this season, by 6, 31, 6½, & 21 pts. So why not again, vs a team which
cannot wait for this cursed season to draw to a close? A week ago, it all went wrong for the
Patriots, with 5 turnovers vs the best defense in the NFL (Pittsburgh), with 5 turnovers (4 by
QB Cassel, who had heretofore been a model of efficiency. No repeat vs Seattle's 28th
ranked "D". And no scoreboard match, with the NFL's 31st ranked "O".
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 8, and is still minus 8.
Not about to wind up the Red Sheet season without the defending champions, who have
been simply magnificent in continuing '07's brilliant late stretch. Sure, they have to go it
without Burress, which has to aid the defensive preparation of the always tough Eagles, but
NY just finds the way to succeed. Averaging 30-13 ppg edge at home, & on a 15-2 spread
run. Philly Thanksgiving Day rout of Arizona, just gives us added value.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Rutgers, California, Tulsa, BallSt - NFL: Arizona, NWOrleans, Jets, Carolina
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Louisville (+13 to +10½); Okla (-14 to -16½); BallSt (-13
to -14½); Cal (-33½ to -35) - NFL: Cincy (+14½ to +13½); Cleve (+14½ to +13½); Balt (-5 to -6) - TIME
CHANGES: WVa/SoFla: 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: ArizSt DT Smith (stinger) ??; Army RB McMahand (leg)
probable; BC RB Haden (shoulder) ??; & DT Brace (foot) probable; UConn LB Lloyd (personal) doubtful; Fla
WR/RB Harvin (ankle) ??; & DT Antwine (knee) doubtful; Fla-Int'l RB Reams (shoulder) probable; Navy QB
Enhada (hamstring) probable; Okla QB Bradford (thumb) probable; & LB Box (knee) doubtful; Wash KR/WR
Polk (concussion) ??; WestVa LB Leonard (ankle) probable - NFL: QB Edwards (groin) ??; Carolina RB
Stewart (hamstring) ??; Cleve TE Winslow (ankle) doubtful; Cleve QBs Anderson (knee) & Quinn (finger)
out; Dallas RB Barber (toe) probable; & LB Ware (knee) probable; Denver CB Bailey (groin) probable; GBay
RB Grant (thumb) ??; Houston QB Schaub (knee) will start; NEng WR Welker (head) ??; NYGiant WR
Burress (leg) out; Giant RB Bradshaw (neck) ??; Washington RB Portis (knee) probable.....
NOTE: This is the final Red Sheet of the season, and as predicted, we stormed back in style, following last
year's rare losing effort. As you know the 4 previous seasons, we went 19-9, 18-9, 15-10, & 17-11 on
Superior Plays, and thus far, we stand at 19-10 on Superior Plays for the '08 Season. See you next year
LOGICAL APPROACH
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CONNECTICUT - 2 ½ over Pittsburgh - Both teams are Bowl bound but each played their best football in the first half of the season. Pitt is off of a second straight upset win of bitter rival West Virginia (which soundly defeated UConn) while Connecticut is rested. UConn has the far better rushing attack while both defenses are stout against the run. The passing matchup shows Pitt with a slight edge on offense but UConn with a significant edge on defense. UConn has won 3 of 4 meetings since joining the Big East including 2 wins as underdogs. They have a significant coaching edge and the situation also favors the Huskies. A win by UConn would tie the teams with 8-4 records and improve Uconn's Bowl bid. Uconn's defense has played well down the stretch, holding 5 of their last 6 foes to under 300 total yards. The overall talent is spread fairly evenly but UConn has enough edges to gain a solid win. Connecticut wins 27-17.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
RUTGERS - 10 over Louisville (Thursday) - These teams are winding up mediocre seasons but in far different fashion. Louisville started 5-2 but has lost their last 4 games while Rutgers has overcome a 1-5 start to win 5 straight - the last 4 of which have been by at least 18 points. The line reflects the current form as the talent level is clearly not that disparate. Statistically the teams are pretty even. Rutgers QB Teal has regained his touch from last season while Louisville has had breakdowns on both sides of the ball. The teams traded 3 point home wins the past 2 seasons but Louisville was the stronger program both seasons. This is only the fourth road game for Louisville and their fourth in a month, since back to back losses at both Pitt and Syracuse. Louisville has failed to top 21 points in each of its last 4 games while over the same stretch Rutgers has scored at least 30 points. At home Rutgers will be more motivated and interested. Rutgers wins 37-16.
ARIZONA - 10 ½ over Arizona State - At 6-5 Arizona is Bowl bound for the first time in a decade and they seek to cap their most successful season in a decade with a win over their arch rival and end a 3 game losing streak in the series. ASU has won 7 of the last 9 against Arizona and a win here would also make the Sun Devils Bowl eligible at 6-6. But ASU has not been nearly the same team this season as they were in coach Dennis Erickson's first season. The offense is down significantly from a season ago with a bottom 10 rushing attack. The swagger is gone and whereas last season ASU played the role of bully roles have been reversed this season. Arizona has more productive on offense this season and while ASU enters this game on a 3 game win streak while 'Zona has lost 2 straight the schedule must be noted. Arizona's losses were to the 2 Oregon teams while ASU whipped the 2 Washington teams before beating UCLA last week in a game in which the defense came up with big plays but the offense was held to just 122 yards. Arizona wins 35-21.
TROY STATE - 11 over Arkansas State - Troy can win the Sun Belt title outright with a win and gain an automatic Bowl bid. A win by ASU could create a 3 way tie depending on UL Lafayette's mid week game against Middle Tennessee. Troy has been the classiest program in the Sun Belt for the past several seasons and has made a habit of scheduling tough and playing well against BCS teams. This season they hung in tough at Ohio State for 3 quarters and nearly beat LSU, leading 31-3 before falling to superior talent. ASU opened their season with a win at Texas A&M that looked impressive at the time but in retrospect came against a very weak Big 12 foe. ASU had won the first 3 games in this new series before Troy won 27-0 last season on the road. Troy has a strong home field, going 32-5 here straight up since starting to face FBS teams on a limited basis in 2001. They are 4-0 at home this season with all 4 wins by double digits. ASU has been very competitive on the road but they don't match up well against this foe. Troy wins 34-13.
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA - 13 ½ over St Louis - Despite a 7-5 record, Arizona clinches the NFC West with a win here. They are a perfect 4-0 in Divisional play, outscoring their Divisional foes by 42 points. The Rams played better last week in losing at home to Miami but scored just 12 points on 4 field goals. St Louis has scored more than 19 points just once this season while allowing 30 points per game. The hot start by Double Digit Dogs has slowed to 0-3 the past 3 weeks so there may be some comfort in backing the potent offense of the host. The Cardinals have several extra days of rest and have already soundly beaten better teams on this field this season - routing Miami by 21 and Buffalo by 24. They still have a chance to earn the NFC # 2 seed and a first round Playoff Bye so we should get a focused effort. The Rams played well for a three game stretch in mid season but have road losses by 35 and 24 points prior to that stretch and road losses by 44 and 19 since. They are playing out the string for a lame duck interim coach. Arizona wins 35-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
GREEN BAY - 6 over Houston - At 5-7 both teams seemingly are winding down disappointing seasons. Houston defeated Division rival Jacksonville Monday night in an emotional home game for the franchise. Green Bay has lost 4 of its last 5 games but still has a shot at winning the NFC North with a favorable schedule down the stretch. Once formidable Lambeau Field has not been a strong home field this season (3-3) although all three losses have to teams with winning records (25-11) contending for the Playoffs. When facing this level of competition, Green Bay has been explosive. The Packers have played the third toughest schedule to date (foes are 81-63 while Houston's foes are below .500). Packer QB Aaron Rodgers continues to assume a leadership role and the running game has improved in recent weeks. Houston has QB issues and had lost 5 in a row on the road prior to their 16-6 win at Cleveland 2 weeks ago. Any inclement weather should benefit Green Bay. Stepping down in class, the Pack gets back on track. Green Bay wins 31-20.
N Y Jets - 4 over SAN FRANCISCO - A look at the stats from last week's game and one must wonder how the 49ers defeated Buffalo and how the Bills managed just 3 points. Buffalo held a 350 to 195 total yards edge despite running just 11 more offensive plays. After their decisive win at Tennessee, a Jets' letdown last week was expected but an outright loss to Denver was not, although the Broncos had won their previous two road games in upset fashion. Look for things to return to form here as the Jets' offensive balance creates problems for the San Francisco defense while their own defense keeps the still emerging 49ers offense in check. Yes, the Jets have struggled on the West Coast this season, losing at Oakland and San Diego, but they have also now won 3 straight on the road - all against contending teams - and routed the other 2 NFC West teams they've faced thus far - Arizona and St Louis - although both wins were at home. The 49ers are 2-4 at home but the pair of wins have come against lowly Detroit and St Louis. There is a huge talent gap and the Jets are playing well enough to back for a solid win. New York Jets wins 24-13.
PITTSBURGH - 3 over Dallas - This is a key game for both teams, especially Dallas, as each is involved in tight races to make the post season. Pittsburgh is arguably better than its 9-3 record. Their top ranked defense has yet to allow an opponent to gain 300 yards in a game all season. The Steelers have dealt with and overcome injuries from early this season while the Cowboys continue to be plagued with the latest banged up 'Boys being key defender DeMarcus Ware and starting RB Marion Barber. Dallas is rested but steps way up in class after facing -- and easily defeating -- San Francisco and Seattle. They have struggled against physical teams and few are more physical than the Steelers. Dallas is also in an unfavorable scheduling spot after a pair of home games and two more on deck. A look at games against common foes shows that overall Pittsburgh has performed much better. Yes, Dallas had several games without QB Tony Romo but the Steelers have also played much of the season without their top 2 RBs. Pittsburgh's defense sets the tempo. Their consistently outstanding play cannot be ignored. Pittsburgh wins 24-16.
Best of the NFL Totals
Oakland/San Diego UNDER 43
Cincinnati/Indianapolis UNDER 42 ½
Houston/Green Bay OVER 47
Cleveland/Tennessee UNDER 37 ½
Washington/Baltimore UNDER 36
N Y Jets/San Francisco UNDER 45