Newsletters 9/17 - 9/21

Pointwise

College
1--Texas over Texas Tech 51-24
1--Bowling Green over Marshall 37-17
2--Auburn over West Virginia 34-17
2--Stanford over San Jose State 40-10
3--Air Force over New Mexico 38-13
4--Buffalo (+) over UCF 33-20
5--Cincinnati over Oregon State 34-20
5--Arizona (+) over Iowa 24-17

NFL
3--Washington over St. Louis 27-7
3--New England over NY Jets 34-20
4--Tennessee over Houston 27-13
4--Chicago (+) over Pittsburgh 20-19
5--Indy over Miami 23-17

Gold Sheet

Key Releases

NFL

ARIZONA by 7 over Jacksonville

CLEVELAND by 7 over Denver

UNDER THE TOTAL in the Indianapolis-Miami game

NCAAF

INDIANA by 10 over Akron

AUBURN by 17 over West Virginia

SMU by 18 over Washington State

BUFFALO by 7 over UCF

The Gold Sheet EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

NCAAF RELEASES

OKLAHOMA STATE
We know that Oklahoma State isn’t a happy bunch after losing to heavy underdog Houston last week at Boone Pickens Stadium. We also know that the Cougars are a dangerous team, something we can’t say about this week’s visitor to Stillwater, the Rice Owls. Indeed, the Owls have slipped from last year’s bowl season, blown out while failing to cover their first two games vs. UAB and Texas Tech while recording a poor “AFS” (Away From Spread) number of -15.50, one of the worst 2-game marks in the nation. And we also know the Cowboys can be quite a bully under HC Mike Gundy, covering 12 of their last 14 as double-digit chalk, including 8 of their last 9 in that role at home. Rice has also fallen to 2-5 vs. the line its last 7 as a road dog after its opening defeats.

KENTUCKY
There’s been a not-so-subtle shift in the Bluegrass State “hate series” between Louisville and Kentucky the past two years. After watching the Cards mostly dominate action for much of the decade, the Wildcats have bossed the last two meetings with wins and covers, and will be looking for more of the same Saturday at Commonwealth Stadium. Kentucky has also been trustworthy at Lexington of late vs. non-SEC foes, covering 4 of its last 5 opportunities. Meanwhile, Louisville has mostly struggled vs. the line since HC Steve Kragthorpe arrived in ‘07, covering only 8 of 22 chances on the board.

AIR FORCE
Series trends and recent performances present a very strong case for Air Force when the hungry Falcons invade Albuquerque for a Saturday Mountain West battle against New Mexico. It’s been all Air Force in recent meetings, as the Falcs have covered five straight vs. the Lobos. The Force is also a notable 16-9 vs. the line since HC Troy Calhoun arrived in ‘07, and Calhoun has proven particularly reliable as a favorite, covering in 9 of 11 chances. As for New Mexico, the faltering Lobos have looked bad while losing and failing to cover their first two, posting a woeful “AFS” (Away From Spread) number of -18.50 in those lopsided defeats. And the New Mexico pointspread lsoing streak is now at 4 games, reaching back into late last season.

HAWAII
We’re picking our spots carefully with hometown UNLV, which, as we expected provided good value last week vs. favorred Oregon State. But we’re not about to trust the Rebels as a favrotie when they host explosive Hawaii Saturday night at Sam Boyd Stadium. The reason? Consider the Rebs’ subpar 2-6 chalk amrk in rare favorite roles since HC Mike Sanford arrived in 2005. Indeed, the underdog team is 16-7 vs. the line in UNLV home games in the Sanford era. In this uncomforable chalk role, the Rebs are also a go-against play in the Impotent Favorites system this week.

NFL

CLEVELAND - DENVER “UNDER”
There’s a new regime in Denver, and we’re rather bullish on the “unders” for the Broncos until further notice. The “under” netted us a Key Release winner in The Gold Sheet against Cincinnati last week and we expect more of the same when Cleveland invades Invesco Field for a Sunday AFC battle. “Under” has certainly been the call for Browns “totals” action lately, as they’ve gone that way in1 5 of their last 22 games, as well as 7 of their last 10 on the road. Denver is also “under” 7 of its last 10 at home.

Powersweep

4H UNLV over Hawaii - UH leads the series 12-6 SU and is 4-2-1 ATS vs LV, incl a current 3-1 run. UH has an edge on off (#48-71) but LV has the edge on def (#73-111) and ST (#72-118). UH finds itself in a similar situation here as in its last trip to Vegas (‘07) as the Warriors are again in the 2nd of B2B AG’s and stayed on the Mainland throughout the week. The Run-&-Shoot is back in gear at UH as QB Alexander is avg 379 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio and also leads the team with 87 yds rush (4.6) and WR Salas has 14 rec (26.8!) and 2 TD and already has 375 yds in 2 gms (188 ypg). UH is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the 2nd of B2B AG’s S/’05 and the Warriors are on a current 8-3 ATS run overall. LV has its MWC opener at WY on deck while UH has a bye. The Rebs are off a heart-breaking loss to Oreg St, losing on a 33 yd FG with :07 left. QB Clayton slightly injured his knee and left in the 4Q and UNLV rallied for 2 TD’s to go ahead 21-20 (4:16) behind bkup Clausen. Clayton is avg 192 ypg (72%) with a 2-1 ratio and his top target has been Wolfe with 14 rec (11.3). Clausen is experienced though, leading LV to a 2-1 record to end ‘08, so if Clayton is out (check status) the off will not miss a beat. This is LV’s 4th time S/’04 hosting 3 consec HG’s and the Rebs are 3-0 SU/ATS in that 3rd gm. With LW’s results there’s is added value which makes for a great Sept ember 5H. FORECAST: UNLV 41 Hawaii 23

3H TEXAS A&M over Utah St - Both schools are off a bye. A&M won a 4H on these pages 2W ago in dominant fashion beating up on NM 41-6 (-14’). Big difference from LY as A&M looked near perfect in Sherman’s West Coast system (606 yds) and smothering def (all’d just 231 yds). QB Johnson threw for 349 yds (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. Utah St hasn’t played in 16 days but looked good vs rival Utah (covered as 21 pt AD, trailed just 14-10 after 1Q). A&M has 16 ret sts and figures to use non-conf to gain confidence in the 2nd yr under Sherman. A&M is 12-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in non-conf HG’s winning by an avg of 29 ppg but will not take this game lightly after losing to Ark St and barely getting past Army at home in ‘08. Utah St is also a vet squad (16 ret sts) but like A&M LY are dealing with new schemes from a 1st yr HC. Utah St is 5-14 ATS as a dog vs BCS tms and has dropped 7 straight road gms (10-5 ATS as an AD). A&M wore down NM 2W ago and should do the same here in the heat and humidity of TX (avg temp high 80’s, low 70’s in Logan). A hungry team that needs big wins would make a great September GOM. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 48 Utah St 20
3H Air Force over NEW MEXICO - The Lobos are not off to a good start in the Mike Locksley era losing both games by 30+ pts. We have gone against the Lobos twice this season using a 4H Key Selection on Texas A&M in the first week and a 2H Key Selection on Tulsa LW winning both easily as the Lobos are struggling offensively and defensively with new schemes. Meanwhile, AF is coming off a tough loss to Minny LW blowing a 7 pt lead in the second half and usually play well on the road early in the season going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the MWC road opener. AF has also won 4 of 5 vs NM. LY NM forced 3 early TO’s and led 10-0 about to go up 17-0 when they fumbled and AF returned it 96 yds for a TD. AF scored the final 23 pts. The Lobos usually hold AF well below their season avg rushing but that was under coach Rocky Long and he is now gone. LY under Long, the defense held AF to a season low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. The new DC Dickey hasn’t seen many option attacks in his career and may struggle here. The visitor is 8-4 ATS and AF has covered 5 straight. Troy Calhoun is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as an away fav. Air Force should continue the Lobos woes. FORECAST: Air Force 37 NEW MEXICO 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H FLORIDA over Tennessee - The Vols have avg’d just 41 rush ypg vs UF the last 3 years (-11, 37, 96). The team who has rushed for more yds has won 17 of the last 19. The Gators are 11-3-1 ATS S/’94 in their first SEC game. UF had a 3-0 TO edge and got a 78 yd PR TD from James to win 30-6 (-7’) LY and the FD’s were even at 16 and UT had a 258-243 yd edge. The Gators are the best team in the country and this is their only game in the month of Sept that matters especially after UT’s new coach Kiffin made some disparaging comments about Meyer in the offssn. UF (-7’) won their last HG vs UT by 39 and that UT team made it to the SEC Title game. UF has our #1 off and #1 def and #2 spec tms and faces UT’s #45 off, #10 def and #65 spec tms. UF’s Meyer can name the score here as UF is fresh off of 2 blowout wins (outscored Char So and Troy 118-9 and outgained them by an avg of 644-231) in which the subs did most of the work while UT lost a hard-fought battle with UCLA 19-15 last week and has to travel. UT had a 208-186 yd edge but a 4-1 TO deficit LW. QB Crompton has struggled under pressure and is avg 163 ypg (63%) with a 5-5 ratio (3 int and a fmbl lost LW) while Tebow is avg 213 ypg (64%) with a 5-0 ratio. All UF has done is cover 15 of 16 regular season games. Sounds like a September 5H, doesn’t it? FORECAST: FLORIDA 38 Tennessee 3

2H KENT ST over Iowa St - Kent St knows they can win this as they beat Iowa St 23-14 on the road in ‘07 and LY had a 480-374 yd edge but lost in a gm an upset coach Martin felt he had the stronger tm (4 fmbl and 2 blk punts vs them). ISU is just the 5th current BCS school to visit Dix Stadium S/’76. ISU is making their first road trip and are off of playing their rival Iowa (outgained by 123 yds w/6 TO’s). QB Arnaud is avg 153 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio (all 4 int LW) and was pulled for rFr Tiller (PS#54). They have a new HC and lost 22 lett while Kent has just 13 lett lost. ISU has dropped 17 straight AG’s and are 0-4 ATS as a rare AF. This will be their 5th MAC opp over the L4Y and they have been outgained in 3 matchups. KSU has outgained and outFD’d ISU in 2 of those (+47 ypg). KSU was blasted by BC LW (outgained 349-179) and have its MAC opener on deck. QB Morgan is avg 120 ypg (59%) with a 0-3 ratio as KSU played 3 QB’s vs BC. RB Jarvis has 158 yds (4.3). With the Cyclones road struggles and the Flashes past success vs them, KSU will be very confident vs this BCS opponent. FORECAST: KENT ST 30 Iowa St 24

2H OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Tulsa 17

OTHER GAMES

Thursday Sept 17

Georgia Tech at MIAMI, FL - GT is 4-0 SU/ATS in the series and piled up 472 yds rushing LY in a 41-23 rout. That game was played on an unusually chilly Atlanta night and it seemed to greatly affect the warm weather Miami bunch. The Hurricanes have revenge on their minds but the angles favor GT as the Yellow Jackets are 12-4-1 as an AD while Shannon is just 3-9 ATS as a HF.

Friday Sept 18

Boise St at FRESNO ST - WAC opener for both. The Broncos are 7-1 SU/ATS vs the Bulldogs. LY Fresno was the WAC preseason favorite to win the title even though they had to play at Boise and had never won an outright title. We picked Boise and the Broncos showed their superiority. BSU only led 13-10 at HT but then exploded in the 2H in a 61-10 (-21) victory. Boise has lost just 2 WAC gms since becoming a league member (‘01) and one was here in ‘05 (27-7, +9’), but they did win their last gm in Fresno in ‘07 by a 34-21 margin (-3). This is Boise’s road opener where they are 1-6-1 ATS but Fresno is only 1-5 SU/ATS as a HD over the L5Y. BSU is 8-0 SU (4-4 ATS) in WAC openers while FSU is 5-2 SU but only 1-5-1 ATS in WAC openers S/’02. Both tms are headed to Ohio next week as Boise travels to BG and Fresno heads to Cincy.

Saturday Sept 19th

ARMY 27 Ball St 10 - Both are off disappointing losses. Army led Duke 10-0 in the 2Q and had 20-14 FD and 385-236 yd edges but gave up 2 IR TD’s. Ball St lost to a good New Hampshire team (was #9 FCS) but were shockingly outFD’d 16-9 and outgained 322-127. Ball St led 6-0 in the 1Q despite being outgained by 70 yds but gave up 16 unanswered points in the 2Q. Army was 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) vs the MAC LY. Army’s top rusher is SB Mealy who has 208 yds (13.9). This is the first road start for Ball St’s young QB and OL which usually spells trouble especially vs an Army defense that already has 7 sks TY. The Cardinals’ QB Page is avg just 127 ypg (44%) with a 1-2 ratio, a far cry from LY’s QB Davis’ 257 ypg (64%, 26-8 ratio). RB MiQuale Lewis, who avg 124 ypg LY (5.4), is avg just 62 ypg (4.3) TY. While we rank the offenses close, Army has the def edge (#72-97).

PURDUE 41 N Illinois 24 - 1st meeting and both coaches previously came from the FCS ranks. Purdue has won 8 in a row SU vs the MAC (3-5 ATS) and while they have ND next week they should be motivated to face an ‘08 bowl team. LY NI almost beat Minny in the opener and gave Wisconsin a scare in this year’s opener as they were SOD after recovering an onside kick trailing by just 8 (+16’). The Huskies are only in an FCS/Idaho sandwich and have covered 3 straight vs BCS teams under HC Kill. The Boilermakers are off a 38-36 loss to Oregon as they failed on a 2pt conversion that would have tied the game with around 1:00 left. Purdue had 24-17 FD and 451-356 yd edges but gave up 2 TO’s for TD’s. Purdue has the off (#51-96) and def (#55-87) edges. The offense is led by QB Elliott, who avg 243 ypg (59%) with a 4-5 ratio and RB Bolden with 357 yds (7.1) and 4 TD. The Huskies are led by QB Harnish, who avg 159 ypg (66%) with a 2-0 ratio and RB Brown with 181 yds (7.2).

MICHIGAN 41 E Michigan 10 - Last met in ‘07 as UM led only 16-14 in the 3Q before winning 33-22, but EM has been shutout in 6 of 8 meetings (UM leads series 8-0 SU). The Wolves are 2-9 ATS as a DD non-conf fav but did cover vs WM in the opener. The Wolves are 4-0 ATS after ND and are off LW’s upset of the Irish in which ND had 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges but the Irish’s play calling left UM enough time to score the game-winning TD with :11 left. True frosh QB Forcier avg 210 ypg (68%) with a 5-1 ratio, incl a 31 yd TD run on 4&1 vs the Irish, which was the missing dimension in the Wolves’ offense LY. The Eagles flew back from a 21-0 2Q deficit to tie NW at 24 with 2:40 left before the Cats kicked a 49 yd FG with :11 left to drop EM’s all-time record vs the B10 to 0-25. QB Schmitt (166 ypg, 64%, 2-4 ratio) continues to struggle with the move away from the shotgun but RB Priest had 127 yd vs NW. EM’s HC English was UM’s DC under Carr (‘06-07) and wasn’t retained when Rod was hired. EM has a bye on deck. UM has huge edges (#19-80 off, #33-116 D) but will be tested in a flat spot as TW’s ‘it team’ with the B10 opener up next.

PITTSBURGH 27 Navy 20 - Visitor has covered 3 in a row but Navy is 4-8 SU/ATS vs BE tms. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS as a HF with SIX upset losses and Navy is 19-8 as an AD. LY was a 42-21 Pitt blowout that could’ve been worse as Pitt was about to go up 28-7 before Navy got a 90 yd IR TD. Navy got a garbage TD with :20 left and Pitt had a ssn high 499 yds. That was in stark contrast to ‘07 when Navy won here 48-45 in 2 OT’s with 331 yds rush (194 LY). LW, Pitt defeated Buff 54-27 despite being outgained 500-381 as Pitt scored 27 pts off 4 Buff TO’s. Pitt has found a replacement for #2 DC McCoy in true Fr Dion Lewis (PS#110) who is avg 160 ypg (7.2) with 4 TD. QB Stull is avg 148 ypg (70%) with a 5-1 ratio. Navy rallied from a 14-0 1Q deficit to defeat LA Tech 32-14. The Mids outgained LT 393-167 and outFD’d them 23-10. Navy nearly defeated Ohio St (outgained OSU 363-342) on the road in Wk 1 and has a winnable WKU game at home on deck. Pitt is 13-6 ATS off a SU win the L2Y and has NCSt on deck. Pitt has the edges on off (#39-85) and def (#26-81). Pitt does not have the bye week to prepare as they did the L/2Y but has one of the best DL in the nation and legitimate revenge here for the home loss in ‘07.

Northwestern 21 SYRACUSE 18 - NW has dropped 4 str ATS when visiting a non-conf foe incl Duke LY where they were outgained 472-328 and outFD’d 28-14. SU is 3-8 ATS as a HD but had beaten the Wildcats in 4 straight gms prior to LY’s 30-10 loss. NU dominated LY with a 484-225 yd edge and a 242-68 2H yd edge. LW SU was beaten, but not humiliated by #7 Penn St 28-7 (+29’), so they have covered the first 2 of a 3 gm stand vs the B10. QB Paulus alternated with rFr Nassib as they combined for 135 yds (72%) with a 1-2 ratio throwing short passes to slow down PSU’s rush. The Orange have yet to find their identity on offense TY avg 41 ypg less than LY, but the defense is all’g 95 rush ypg (2.8) and held PSU to 78 LW. LW NW was up 21-0 but needed a FG with :06 left to beat E Mich 27-24. NW is in similar situation returning just 17.9% of LY’s offense production. QB Kafka is avg 175 ypg (66%) and RB Simmons is avg 75 ypg (4.8). The off are similar (NW #95-102) but NW has the edge on def (#48-65) as they return 8 incl All-B10 DE Wootton. Syracuse has the home edge and this is only the 4th time in 4 years that the Cats have been an AF.

CLEMSON 30 Boston College 13 - BC had won 5 in a row in this series but Spiller had a schl rec (for RB) 105 yds rec and then-interim HC Swinney got his 1st win 27-21 (+3’) on the road. This matchup has been decided by a ttl of 13 pts the L4Y. In last trip here, #18 BC upset #15 CU 20-17 on a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left, stealing the Atl Div Title. BC has a 2 QB’s still trying to determine a starter and they’re making their 1st road trip to a very hostile place. BC is 11-2 ATS as an AD but does have their 3rd HC in 4Y. BC posted their 2nd str lopsided win LW vs a non-BCS. QB’s Shinskie and Tuggle have comb for 389 yds (43%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has rushed for 181 (5.3). CU is 4-11 ATS as an ACC HF. LW WR Ford and RB Spiller showed their blazing spd after GT had taken a 24-0 lead thanks to 2 ST’s scores as Spiller took off for a 63 yd TD pass and Ford went 77 yds for a TD (both track tm). QB Parker is avg 210 ypg (47%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Spiller has 99 rush yds (4.1) and 4 rec (17.3) despite missing most of the opener. WR Ford has 8 rec (22.4).

PENN ST 30 Temple 6 - Five members of the TU staff incl HC Golden played under Paterno. PSU has faced Temple the L3Y winning by a combined 123-3. LY Temple lost their starting QB in the 1st series and PSU had a 338-32 yd edge at half delivering a 3H Key Selection. PSU does have a HUGE revenge game vs Iowa on deck while Temple is off a bye, but may want to stay healthy with a MAC matchup with Buffalo on deck. The Lions are 19-8 ATS as a DD fav but 0-2 TY after LW’s 28-7 win over Syracuse in which PSU outgained (318-200) and outFD’d (23-13) the Orange. SU’s lone TD come on a 1 pl, 16 yd pass with 4:23 left after a fmbl by Lions true frosh backup QB Newsome. The OL has failed to get a push for the 2nd game in a row (#94 NCAA 107 rush ypg, 3.3) vs the BE’s #7 DL and the MAC’s #2 DL (Temple is MAC’s #1 DL). The Owls have had 16 days to prep for this after their last second loss to the FCS’s #3 team, Villanova, in the opener in which they blew a 10 pt 4Q lead. QB Charlton threw for 317 yd vs the Cats but also tossed 3 int, incl 1 which set up Nova’s gm winning FG.

N CAROLINA 20 E Carolina 13 - Last met in ‘07 as EC QB Pinkney threw for 406 yds and 3 TD in his 1st start as the Pirates won 34-31 in Butch Davis’ first loss here (31-34, +5’). It was only EC’s 2nd win in 11 tries vs the Heels. NC is 10-22 ATS as a HF and does have a big ACC game at GT on deck. EC got a lot or recognition for their upsets of WV and VT LY so NC should be fully focused. Holtz is an outstanding 13-4 as an AD with 7 upsets. #24 UNC is off a 12-10 come-from-behind win over Conn. The Heels trailed 10-0 heading into the 4th, but rallied to escape with the road win. They outgained Conn 268-196 and a UC safety (hold in EZ) with 1:32 left ensured the win. NC QB Yates was 22-32 for 233 with a 1-2 ratio, but NC only rushed for 35 yds on 38 carries (0.9). EC is off a disappointing 35-20 loss at WV. The Pirates got out to a 10-0 lead, but were shutout in the 2H and were outgained 509-237 on the game. Pinkney has struggled 2 weeks in a row and is avg just 153 ypg (42%) with a 2-3 ratio. Offenses are even, but NC has a solid def edge (#14-59). EC was just 1-2 SU/ATS vs the ACC LY, but both losses were as a fav and the visitor has covered in 3 straight. Holtz always has his team ready to play these games so expect the Pirates to keep it close.

W MICHIGAN 37 Miami, Oh 9 - Last met in ‘06 with WM winning on a FG with 1:16 left at home despite a 27-16 FD edge. This is WM’s home opener. Miami has yet to score a point this year and has given up a combined 90 pts in the first 2 games. Both teams come in 0-2 and while WM has been outgained by an avg 111 ypg, Miami has been outgained by an avg 274 ypg which is more than the 191 ypg they avg on offense. Miami QB Raudabaugh is avg 141 ypg (49%) with an 0-4 ratio and their top rusher Andre Bratton has just 37 yds (5.3). WM QB Hiller is avg 263 ypg (52%) with a 2-2 ratio but top rusher RB West has just 78 yds (2.9). WM rates the edges on off, def and ST’s and only has Hofstra on deck while Miami is in the middle of a 3 game road trip.

VANDERBILT 31 Miss St 14 - Last year Vandy was 5-0 and #13 in the country coming into this gm and we used a 4H LPS on a 1-4 Miss St team at home and they pulled the outright upset (+2’) with a 249-107 yd edge. Vandy is 2-14 SU in SEC home openers, but won LY, 24-17 over SC. VU is off a hard-fought 23-9 loss (+14) to LSU in the rain. LSU led 16-9 in the 4Q and the Tigers only had a 326-210 yd edge. VU lost RT James Williams (brkn ankle) LW. QB Larry Smith avg 121 ypg (50%) with a 1-1 ratio. True frosh RB Zac Stacy (222, 5.6) leads VU in rushing. MSU is 1-6 ATS as an AD and on their 2nd str road game. LW we won a 3H LPS by going against MSU and Aub (-14’) won 49-24 with a 589-297 yd edge. MSU all’d 390 rush yds (6.6) to Aub and VU is avg 278 rush ypg (5.1). MSU RB Dixon ret’d from susp LW with 92 rush yds (4.6). Lee (75 ypg, 63%, 1-0 ratio) has split time at QB with bkup Relf (76 ypg, 57%, 1-0 ratio, 134 rush, 7.1). They are a rebuilding team with just 10 ret sts and a new HC. Vandy is a veteran squad (17 ret sts) that is playing its first legitimate revenge game in years and they have a large edge on def (#28-73). Vandy is just 5-12 as a HF and has only been a SEC HF twice in the L2Y (1-1 SU/ATS).

COLORADO 34 Wyoming 17 - CU coach Hawkins is on the hottest of hot seats coming off losses to rival Colorado St and Toledo. Hawkins was 2-0 vs WY (avg win by 19) when at Boise. CU is at home with a bye on deck. While a big win is needed the offense has struggled, with QB Hawkins comp just 52% with a 5.6 ypa. Wyoming played well early against Texas last week and actually led 10-7 late in the 2Q before eventually losing 41-10. Wyoming is a veteran squad especially up front on the DL but the pass D has allowed 338 ypg (63%) the first 2. Colorado has had problems running the football avg 2.5 ypc and the OL has all’d 7 sacks. WY HC Christensen was Missouri’s OC and scored 55 and 58 vs the Buffs’ D the last two years and the Buffs have just 4 sts back on D. WY is just 3-10 as an AD and while they struggled early away LY, getting outscored 122-7, keep in mind they did knock off Tenn as a 27 pt dog.

IOWA 16 Arizona 10 - The Cats’ last trip to B10 country was a 59-7 loss at Purdue in ‘03. Last met in ‘98, a 35-11 UA win. Iowa beat the only P10 team to travel to Kinnick recently Ariz St 21-2 (-7’) in ‘03. Iowa is 0-5 ATS vs non-conf at home laying 22 or less. Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS the week after beating rival Iowa St. AZ is 1-6-1 ATS vs non-conf BCS teams and 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in road openers. AZ QB Scott (176 ypg, 66%, 1-2 ratio) makes his 1st road start in an intimidating venue. The undervalued Cats have outgained their 1st 2 foes by 299.5 ypg but only outscored them by a combined 30 pts. In LW’s 34-17 win over N Ariz the Cats had a 27 yd FG blk’d and a 57 yd KR and an int set up 10 Lumberjacks pts. Cats RB Grigsby has 325 (8.6). UI capitalized on 6 Iowa St TO’s to crush their rivals 35-3 as a 2H on these pages. ISU set up 4 of UI’s TD’s with an onside K and 3 TO’s which led to scoring drives of 41, 24, 48 and 58. The Hawks have been without 2 starting OL in the 1st 2 (All B10 LT Bulaga may return here) but the run game was revitalized LW under true frosh VHT Wegher (PS#5) with 101 yd. This should be an emotional home coming for AZ HC Stoops who played and began his coaching career (on same staff as Ferentz from ‘86-89) here under Hayden Fry.

AKRON 27 Indiana 20 - In their only other meeting in ‘07 QB Lewis rushed for career high 199 yds as Indy scored 2 TD’s in last 6:25 to pull away for a 41-24 win. This should be an electric night for the Zips as it is the first ever B10 team to travel to Akron and their first FBS foe in their brand new Infocision Stadium. The Zips opened their new home last week in front of a near sellout (27,881) and dominated Morgan St with a 23-3 FD and 436-127 yd edge. Indiana held off a WM comeback LW and outgained the Broncos 372-288. Indy is 3-7-1 ATS in non-conf AG and 2-6-1 ATS in their 1st road game. Last year the Zips beat Syracuse on the road and have covered 4 straight games vs BCS foes. Indiana QB Chappell is avg 256 ypg (70%) with a 1-2 ratio, while RB McCray leads with 183 yds (6.1). Akron QB Jacquemain is avg 160 ypg (59%) with a 4-1 ratio, while the Zips top 2 backs Rodgers and Martin have combined for 129 yds (10.8) and the Zips have a top-notch DL. One thing to keep in mind is that MAC, SBC and CUSA teams are just 10-22 ATS as favs vs BCS teams.

KANSAS 38 Duke 10 - 1st meeting. Kansas is 18-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in non-conf with their avg win by 38-14. They are 16-6 as a HF and this is a rare trip to the midwest for Duke. Duke does have just 11 ret sts and 26 lett lost while Kansas has 14 sts back. In their two recent bowl seasons KU has won their non-conf HG’s by an avg of 46-7. KU took care of UTEP on the road LW (576-208 yd edge) and they play much better in Lawrence. QB Reesing is avg 234 ypg (62%) with a 3-1 ratio. RB Sharpe has 227 yds (6.1). Duke did beat Army LW despite being outgained 385-236 (2 IR TD by Sr Wright) and could be 2-0 (did outgain Richmond, FCS National Champs 2W ago 369-282). QB Lewis is avg 205 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio but PS#16 Sean Renfree (7-8, 106 yds and 2-0 ratio) came off the bench for a spark. Duke is 19-9 as a DD AD (13-5 as an 8+ AD). KU has the off edge (#18-90) and should take care of things at home vs a Duke squad that is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS with an avg score of 44-10 vs ranked opponents.

SOUTHERN MISS 34 Virginia 13 - 1st meeting. Virginia is 2-6 in road openers with 3 straight losses by 27 ppg. Al Groh is 16-27 ATS on the road but they do have a bye on deck. Virg does have just 11 ret sts and avg just 13 ppg on the road in ‘08 while SMiss has 19 ret sts and this is their biggest HG in the 1H of the year as this is only the 6th time SMiss has hosted a BCS school S/’01. SM is 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) in those games, beating Okla St, Illinois and NCSt. SMiss does have a big game on deck on the road vs #24 Kansas. The Eagles are off a 26-19 win over CUSA rival UCF. SM controlled the action, outgaining UCF 409-194, but they couldn’t put the Knights away. The D was stellar, holding UCF to just 15 rush yds (0.6). RB Fletcher hit the century mark (103, 4.9) for the 2nd week in a row and WR DeAndre Brown caught 7 for 75 in his 1st game back after a broken leg in LY’s bowl game. Groh is definitely feeling the heat at UVA. The Cavs are off to another slow start (0-2) after a 30-14 home loss to TCU. UVA got 2 4Q TD’s to make the score look respectable. The Cavs were outgained 380-177 and were outFD’d 23-7. QB Sewell did play the entire game after 3 QB’s saw action in the opening loss to FCS W&M. SM should have another sellout at “The Rock” and Groh’s seat should continue to get hotter as we expect the Eagles to stay ahead of the line.

OREGON 24 Utah 21 - Oregon has had a disappointing start to the season getting embarrassed at Boise St and getting outgained by 95 yds at home against Purdue. They did of course lose their star RB Blount for the season after his well-publicized post-game antics at Boise but still gained 193 (4.7) rush LW. Oregon, however, will be well motivated for the team that finished undefeated and #2 in the country LY. Utah has the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games and is coming off a road win at San Jose St in which they were tied with the Spartans 7-7 going into the 4Q as we won the Underdog POW on these pages on SJSt. UO is 29-2 at home vs non-conf but that was under past HC Bellotti. Utah has struggled on the road in big games and has lost their last 2 trips to P10 schools by an avg of 27-8 (avg line +5), but did win at Mich (3-9 tm) in ‘08. Oregon does have Cal at home on deck. Utah JC AA QB Cain was solid (248, 56%) LW but was assisted by a rush attack that gained 251 (6.3) and has yet to face a BCS defense.

Usc 34 WASHINGTON 21 - New UW HC Sarkisian helped the Huskies earn their 1st win in 16 tries LW vs Idaho as QB Locker (287 ypg, 60%, 5-1 ratio) has proven to be a legit passing threat over the L2W in the new Husky offense. Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC is just 1-6 ATS in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus as true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio) matured quickly against a stellar OSU def (lost LY at Oregon St as a 25 pt fav the week after Ohio St). The Trojan def has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their L/10 opp under 200 yds incl surrendering just 184 to UW LY. They are, however, just 2-7 ATS in the 2nd of B2B RG’s, and meet an energized UW program that is the most improved team in the country.

UCLA 27 Kansas St 10 - 1st meeting. This is a strange non-conf matchup (just 6th trip to CA, outscored 112-52) for K-St as it was made prior to HC Snyder returning as he prefers to play creampuffs prior to diving into B12 play (just 3rd non-conf BCS RG in 8 yrs). The Cats have looked dismal over the 1st 2 wks of the ssn incl an embarrassing loss at ULL LW and have now scored just 36 pts vs FCS UMass and the Cajuns combined!! UCLA pulled out the big upset in Knoxville vs UT LW thanks to 4 Vol TO’s (UT outFD’d and outgained UCLA). RFr Prince managed the gm well despite subpar numbers (101 yds, 48%) and appeared to be what the Bruin coaches are looking for before breaking his jaw (out 3-4 wks). Either 2008 starter Craft or frosh Brehaut will get the call vs K-St. Both tms made our most improved list to begin ‘09 but UCLA has a substantial def advantage (#13-50), is 15-6-1 ATS prior to a bye and are on a 12-4 ATS run as a HF giving them the nod in this one.

VIRGINIA TECH 27 Nebraska 20 - LY VT lead 28-10 late 3Q before NU’s late comeback fell short (fmbl on VT44 w/:05 left). Tyrod Taylor threw for 171 and rushed for 87. That was a rare trip to the Midwest for VT and now the Huskers are on a rare trip to the East Coast and their Big Red faithful might have a tough time gobbling up tickets in Blacksburg. The Hokies have beaten the L/10 current non-conf BCS tms to visit by an avg of 20 ppg. VT is 3-7-1 as a HF. The Huskers were 2-1 as an AD LY in Pelini’s 1st season. VT was outgained 498-155 in their first BCS game TY vs Bama. Although VT topped Marshall LW 52-10, QB Taylor started out slowly going 0-4 with an int but got his rhythm back (161, 2 TD). On the year, he is avg 126 ypg (50%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Williams has been solid rushing for 235 yds (8.1, 5 TD) and 3 rec (26.0). Neb RB Helu has 212 rush yds (7.1). QB Lee has passed for 553 (74%) with a 6-1 ratio but is inexperienced, making his first road start in a very hostile environment while facing a solid defense.

NOTRE DAME 34 Mich St 17 - The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s MSU 23-7 win in East Lansing. ND had 3 TO’s deep in MSU terr and missed 2 FG’s. ND has faced the Spartans 8 straight years after playing Mich. MSU’s 6 str wins in South Bend is a record for an Irish opponent. Both teams were upset victims LW with the Irish allowing Michigan to drive 57 yd for the gm winning TD with :11 left after Weis called 2 passes in the series prior which saved UM 2 TO’s. The Irish finished with 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges and allowed a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clausen is #3 NCAA pass eff avg 326 ypg (66.7%) with a 7-0 ratio. WR Floyd (11, 320) is #2 NCAA rec ypg despite missing the last 6:22 LW while getting stitches in his knee. CM scored 9 pts in the final :40 capping a 72 yd TD drive, rec an onside kick missing a 47 yd FG but getting a 2nd chance to hit the gm winning 42 yd FG with :03 left to beat MSU for the 1st time S/’92. The Chips finished with 27-17 FD, 33:25-26:35 TOP and 418-316 yd edges. Cousins is #6 NCAA in pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 4-0 ratio despite being victimized by several drops. He QB’d the entire 2H LW and is likely to get his 1st road start here. The Irish have edges on both sides (#4-57 off) and (#21-29 D) and need to snap MSU’s streak if Weis wants to stay on the Irish sidelines.

Ohio St 44 Toledo 23 (Cleveland) - Last met in ‘98, OSU 49-0 (-37). This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado (we had an easy Friday Night Marquee Winner on the Over) and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. OSU is 14-3 as an AF. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who avg 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 int. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. OSU has to focus on the run gm which is #81 NCAA (121 ypg, 3.5). UT should be confident after knocking off Colorado and beating Michigan in the Big House LY. OSU won two 5H’s for us in ‘08 and could we use them again?

AUBURN 38 W Virginia 20 - Last year Auburn led by 14, recovered the onside kick and appeared in control but WV went back to their bread and butter rush attack in the 2H led by QB White and RB Devine (207 yds) to win at home 34-17. This is QB Brown’s 1st road start and Auburn is playing with legitimate revenge after WV scored 31 unanswered points. LW WV overcame a 10 pt deficit, 11 penalties and 4 TO’s to defeat EC 35-20. The WV offense was led by Brown who threw for a career high 334 yds (77%) with a 5-1 ratio and had 73 rush yds (7.3). RB Devine (PS#2) is avg just 96 ypg (5.3). WV lost DT Berry, DE Miller and LB Williams in the 1H (check status). LW we won our 3H LPS and 3H Total on the Over as Aub defeated Miss St 49-24 (-14’). TY the Tigers have bought into the offensive scheme as they rolled up 589 yds (390 rush, 6.6) and scored their most pts in an SEC game S/’05. Aub was on a 2-12 ATS run as a DD fav but is 2-0 TY, while WV has not been in a dog role in the reg ssn since ‘06 (a loss). Aub has the off edge over WV (#27-43) and while the def are about even (WV#29-37) WV’s ST continue to be a problem giving Aub the #31-101 edge. This is AU’s 3rd of a 4 game home stand and the Tigers will benefit from Bama weather (50’s LY) avenging LY’s loss.

Smu 35 WASH ST 20 - 1st meeting. Wash St has won 11 straight vs non-conf teams in Pullman by an avg of 25 ppg. These two combined for a 1-22 record vs FBS teams in ‘08 but both are much improved. Only 1 of Wash St’s losses was by less than 25 while SMU had 4 losses by 7 or less and almost beat Houston and Tulsa in CUSA play, but blew late leads. The Mustangs are off a huge road win at UAB (4H LPS Winner) that snapped a 21 game losing streak to FBS schools. SMU jumped out to a 28-7 1H lead and withstood a furious Blazer rally stopping a 2pt conv with :13 left for a 35-33 win. The Mustangs ended up being outgained slightly (448-437) but forced 5 Blazer TO’s. SMU now has 9 int in 2 games (8 all of LY). QB Mitchell threw for 353 (60%) and 3 TD, but did throw 2 int. WSU fell to Hawaii 38-20 in a “neutral” game (Seattle). The Cougs trailed 35-6 at the half and were outgained 626-403 on the night. The lone bright spot for the Cougars was RB Montgomery who rushed for 118 (6.9). This is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Mustangs who are an AF for just the 3rd time S/‘03, but they do have a bye on deck. WSU has mighty USC on deck, so they see this as their best chance for an early season win. WSU all’d 489 pass yds to a similar Run n’ Shoot attack LW, and SMU now has some swagger, so expect Wazzou’s losing woes to continue

San Diego St 30 IDAHO 23 - SDSt leads the series 2-1 SU/ATS. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series (‘96, ‘02 and ‘06). This is UI’s home opener in the Kibbie Dome, which is in stark contrast from the sunshine and grass field of the NFL’s Qualcomm Stadium that the Aztecs call home. The Vandals are hosting just their 3rd non-conf FBS game in the L/5Y having gone 0-2 SU/ATS in such a matchup with losses to NI in ‘07 (42-35, -3) and WM in ‘08 (51-28, +8). UI is on a 6-2 ATS run after ending a 4-18 ATS skid from mid-’06 thru mid-’08 and the Vandals are on a current 3-0 ATS run at home. SDSt has the edge on off (#92-107), def (#95-112) and ST (#67-111). LY SDSt led 38-3 after 3Q outgaining UI 603-351 in a 45-17 win (-11’). SDSt QB Lindley hit 24-38 for 433 yds and 4 TD and the Aztecs picked off three passes. SDSt is just 5-25 SU on the road (lost L/8) and 0-3 ATS as an AF over 6 yrs. The Aztecs haven’t been an AF S/‘07 and haven’t covered as one S/‘03. Idaho has a trip to NI on deck while SDSt has its MWC opener at Air Force up next.

Nevada 34 COLORADO ST 17 - CSU leads the series 8-1 SU but is 3-5 ATS. The Rams won all 8 meetings prior to their 28-10 loss (+3) in Reno in ‘06 in the last meeting. UN has the edge on off (#28-98) but CSU has the edge on ST (#103-115). Nevada’s “pistol” offense is capable of piling up lots of yds and pts and features a dual-threat QB, ‘08 WAC Off POY Kaepernick and two RB’s (Taua and Lippincott) who have led the WAC in rushing in each of the L/2Y. UN is coming fresh off a bye, however, following a 35-0 shutout loss in the season opener at Notre Dame where the Wolf Packsuffered just its second shutout loss in 343 gms (S/’80). UN was dead last in the NCAA pass D in ‘08 allowing 312 ypg and the Irish threw for 322 yds and 4 TD, incl strikes of 70 and 88 yds. UN is looking to rebound from an 0-4 ATS skid and has lost 3 of its L/4 gms SU. CSU started its season off with a bang defeating in-state rival Colo 23-17 (+10) in Boulder marking the first time the Rams won a game there in 23 yrs, but CSU needed a 4Q TD to squeak past FCS Weber St LW by 1 (24-23). The Rams have won 5 consec gms for the first time S/’02 and are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less (8 pts) under 2nd yr HC Fairchild. CSU is on a 5-1 ATS run going 4-2 SU during that stretch. UN has a home game with Missouri on deck while CSU has its MWC opener at BYU up next.

MARSHALL 31 Bowling Green 21 - Marshall was 4-2 vs BG in MAC play from (‘97-’04). BG is 19-8 after a loss. Marshall has 16 ret sts and has bowl aspirations and BG has exceeded expectations early as they have just 10 ret sts and a new HC. This is in the 2nd straight AG for BG, as the Falcons are off a strong showing at Mizzou. BG led most of the game before the Tigers scored 14 unanswered in the 4Q to get a 27-20 win. BG was only outgained 353-320 by a Mizzou tm that put up 442 yds and 37 pts vs Illinois in the opener. BG Sr QB Sheehan is avg 273 ypg (68%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Geter has 148 (5.1). MU hung tough in the 1Q vs 14th ranked VTech, but the Herd was outscored 28-7 in the 2Q and lost 52-10. MU allowed a school-record 444 yds on the ground (8.4) and were outgained 605-252. The lone bright spot for the Herd was RB Darius Marshall who returned from a 1 game suspension and rushed for 109 (6.4), incl a 61 yd TD jaunt. BG has a huge home game vs a ranked Boise squad on deck and Marshall needs a win before heading into conf play (Memphis), so we like a Marshall squad that is 8-2-1 as a home dog since 1999.

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 26 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 185-131. Over the L/9Y the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 32 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's

Underdog Play:
Troy will be glad to have its first home game after two tough road trips. The Trojans are 18-0 in home openers under HC Blakeney. These 2 are locked at 3 games apiece, UAB defeated Troy 21-3 (Troy just 126 yds 1st 3Q’s) in 2006 and won at Troy 27-7 in ‘05. Troy is off Florida with their SBC opener on deck vs a prime contender. This is UAB’s first road game but they have vet QB Webb and 18 ret sts but they are just 2-19 SU on the road (13-14 ATS). UAB has the edge on off (#44-79) but Troy has large edges on defense (#81 vs #110) and ST’s (#12 vs #120). Troy did win all of their HG’s by DD in ‘08 with the avg home win of 40-9. Troy has been outscored 80-6 the last 6 quarters. LW in a 35-33 loss to SMU, UAB had 5 turnovers (4 int, 1 fmbl), incl an int in the EZ, and had a PAT blk'd, forcing them to go for 2 late in the game. UAB finished with a 448-437 yd edge. They are now back in their preferred role as an underdog and they have the talent to get this outright win. An upset here would make a nice September Game of the Month!!!

California 35 MINNESOTA 13 - Cal catches the Gophers off an emotional win over AF in the 1st ever game at TCF Bank Stadium with their B10 (NW) opener on deck. The Gophers trailed AF 10-3 into the 4Q LW when LB Triplett got a 52 yd FR TD in the game’s key play. AF was also SOD on 4&1 at the UM9 in the 1H as the Gophers were outFD’d (24-14) and outrushed 261-108. UM switched offenses to beef up the run gm but are #91 in NCAA with 110 rush ypg (3.9) with QB Weber looking uncomfortable under C (234, 55%, 1-1 ratio). The Bears have outscored their opp 111-20 in their 2-0 start. QB Riley is #8 in NCAA pass eff (223, 65%, 5-0 ratio) while RB Best is #6 in NCAA with 280 yd (10.4!). Cal is 2-6 ATS (6-4 SU) the week before its P10 opener but is 7-1 ATS pre-Oregon. While UM is 18-3 SU at home vs non-conf this is the 1st BCS school to visit S/’97. Cal is 5-0 SU vs B10 with their avg win by 16 ppg and in ‘06 they whipped Minn at home 42-17 (-8) as a 4H Key Selection winner. Minny is 3-8 as a HD but Cal is 1-7 as an AF and this is their 1st road game. Tedford is 2-16 ATS as a DD fav. This game is being played at 9 am PT which slowed the Bears LY when they were upset at Maryland.

UCF 24 Buffalo 13 - UCF was a member of the MAC from ‘02-‘04 and went 2-1 vs the Bulls in that span and 5-1 all-time. UCF is 9-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in Bright House Stadium. Buffalo was a team that caught some good fortune and won the MAC LY. They make a rare trip to Florida and have their MAC opener on deck while UCF is in a CUSA sandwich. Turner Gill is 15-5 as an AD and the Bulls have covered 9 straight regular season road games (5-4 SU). UCF was outFD’d 23-11 and outgained 384-194 by SM LW but scored late thanks to a KR to the SM5 which set up a TD with 1:22 left. The Bulls had 25-19 FD and 500-381 yd edges over Pitt but had 4 TO incl a FR for a TD. UCF is led by QB Hodges, who avg 144 ypg (58%) with a 3-1 ratio coming off the bench the L/2W and their top rusher is RB Harvey with 148 (3.3). Buffalo is led by QB Maynard, who avg 280 ypg (67%) with a 5-1 ratio and their top rusher is RB Thermilus with 128 (3.3). While the Bulls have a slight offensive edge (#105-116) but UCF has a big defensive edge (#54-93).

OKLAHOMA ST 51 Rice 6 - Rice is 0-15 SU with 7 straight ATS losses vs B12 teams with their avg score 46-14. OSU is taking a big step down in competition after facing Georgia and Houston and only have Grambling and a bye on deck. Rice is on the tail end of a 3 game road trip and lost most of their star players from LY’s 10-3 team. OSU QB Robinson is avg 188 ypg (55%) with a 3-1 ratio. WR Bryant has 8 rec (20.3). OSU surprisingly lost at home LW vs Houston allowing 512 yds and their offense has been held in check in the 1H the L2W. To make matters worse RB Hunter (104 yds, 3.3) was inj prior to HT (check status). Rice has allowed 516+ yds and 44+ pts in their 1st two gms (560 allowed LW vs B12 TT). QB Shepherd has just 235 ttl yds and has been splitting snaps with Fanuzzi. Cowboy HC Gundy is 9-3 as a HF and 2 of the losses are by a combined 2 pts. OSU has huge off (#7-114), def (#36-113), and ST (#26-80) edges. Bad spot for the Owls as the Cowboys need to get the bad taste out of their mouth and should roll here vs a Rice squad 0-5 SU/ATS vs ranked foes allowing 51+ IN EVERY gm (avg score 54-10).

BAYLOR 34 Connecticut 13 - LY QB Griffin (PS#34) made his 1st road start on a Fri Night game in a cross country trip to Conn and did well (4 ttl TD) as Baylor (+13) led 28-24 mid-4Q and had a 377-340 yard edge. This time Griffin is exp and Baylor has 16 ret sts, is off a bye and catches UC in an unusual trip to Texas (lost to SMU 30-31 ‘89). LW UC gave up 12 4Q pts incl a GW safety with 1:32 left in their 12-10 loss to NC. The Huskies lost their QB Frazer 3Q with a knee injury and UC may be playing w/o their top LB Lutrus (check status). The UC def is all’g 258 ypg and will have to carry the team as the new offense develops. After rushing for 259 (5.3) in Wk 1 UC ran for 72 (2.1) LW. Baylor had a 17 pt 3Q lead and held on to defeat Wake on the road 24-21 (+2’) in Wk 1 outgaining the Deacons 366-269. Griffin threw for 136 (63%) with a 1-0 ratio and rushed for 41 (3.2) while RB Finley had 91 yds (6.5). Although nearly even on def (UC #41-45), Baylor has the off edge (#42-96) as well on ST’s (#15-69). Baylor returns three 1st Tm B12 defenders and 8 starters on defense. Conn is 1-7 as an AD and 0-4 SU/ATS traveling to the deep south being outscored 18 ppg. This is Baylor’s home opener (4-0 as HF) so the crowd will be excited as the Bears look to avenge LY’s loss.

KENTUCKY 24 Louisville 16 - This game is played for the Governor’s Cup and has huge stakes in terms of recruiting. UL is 7-3 in this series (visitors 9-6 SU) but the Cats have won the last 2 (both outright upsets). UK has never beaten UL 3 years in a row. Last year UL failed to score a TD for the 1st time since 2000 and UK (+3) won 27-2 despite only a 210-205 yd edge. Both teams are off a bye. In week 1, UK dominated Miami OH 42-0 with a 488-188 yd edge. UK QB Hartline threw for a solid 222 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio. UL beat FCS Indiana St 30-10 with a 419-101 yd edge. UL QB Justin Burke (PS#12, NCSt transfer) will make his 1st road start and threw for 223 yds (55%) but with an 0-2 ratio in the opener. Burke missed his 1st 8 passes but hit 17 of 23 after that. UL has 3 DL returning this week (missed opener). UK is on a 1-5 run as a HF and in this series UK has only been favored twice the L10Y and lost both outright.

BYU 37 Florida St 20 - These 2 have met twice, both BYU losses in ssn opening Pigskin Classics in ‘91 and ’00. BYU is 5-3 SU hosting BCS teams inc winning the L/2 by a combined 79-7. FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on off. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by JSU. QB Ponder is avg 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Ty Jones has 99 rush yds (4.5). This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Okla when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is avg a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Kariya has 105 rush yds (3.6). BYU has already beaten Oklahoma and is confident with QB Hall while FSU is coming off a game vs FCS Jax St in which they trailed until in the 4Q

ARKANSAS 27 Georgia 24 - UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. In the last meeting in ‘05, UGA pulled out a 23-20 win in Athens but Ark covered easily as 19’ pt dogs. Georgia is 8-1 SU vs the Hogs. Ark is 10-6 ATS in SEC openers but LY was crushed 49-14 by Alabama as a 9 pt HD and is now 2-6 SU in them. UGA is 3-6-1 as an AF while Petrino has won his last 3 as a HD with 2 outright upsets incl LSU LY. Arkansas is the fresher squad off a FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark HC Petrino admitted that his team had already spent time preparing for this gm in Aug prior to their opener vs Missouri St. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3).

Utep 30 NEW MEXICO ST 6 - UTEP leads the “Battle of I-10” series 49-35-2 as these two interstate rivals are just 45 miles apart. These 2 have combined to avg 63 ppg in the L/9 with the L/3 decided by 6 pts or less. The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, however, the visitor has covered each of the L/4 gms. NMSt has won the L/2 gms outright as a 7-pt dog in both ‘07 (44-34) and ‘08 (34-33). NMSt is on a 2-6 ATS skid and is 8-19 (just 4-19 vs FBS teams) SU and 8-15 ATS S/’07. UTEP has the edge on off (#78-120), def (#104-117) and ST (#92-100). The Miners are on a 3-1 ATS run in road openers but 0-5 ATS as an AF S/’05 with 4 outright losses. NMSt has another rivalry game on deck with a trip to in-state foe New Mexico while UTEP travels to Texas next week.

TEXAS 44 Texas Tech 24 - Rare early B12 matchup that was moved up from Nov 7th. This is one of the top revenge gms TY as in ‘08 TT WR Crabtree got a TD rec w/:01 left for Texas’s only loss of the year (costing them a possible Title shot). TT held the Horns to just 375 yds (only foe to hold UT under 400 yds) and although it took a last second TD to win, dominated most of the gm (22-6 HT score w/a 326-108 yd edge). Texas has won 8 of 10 SU and are allowing just 240 ypg passing the last 5 (well below Tech avg). Both schools are off a very soft 2W non-conf slate with 2 more winnable gms on deck so each will bring its “A” gm. This is the first road trip for TT QB Potts (431 ypg, 67%, 9-3 ratio) and the visitor is just 3-8 ATS. TT is 4-8-1 ATS in road openers and 2-6 as an AD. UT QB McCoy is avg 327 ypg (67%) with a 5-2 ratio. The Horns running gm still hasn’t found a leader but McGee has 131 yds (5.0). Both offenses are potent (UT#2, TT#21) but UT has the def edge (#6-42). TT plays better in Lubbock and UT brings back more from LY especially on off as the Red Raiders are now without Harrell and Crabtree. Will we use the Longhorns as the Sept 5H to gain early ground in the B12?

STANFORD 34 San Jose St 17 - Bill Walsh Legacy Game. SJSt used to talk about class warfare with their middle class team (tms just 22 miles apart) upsetting the upper class Cardinal 3 straight years (1998-2000). Since then Stanford is 6-1 SU with their avg win by 29.2 ppg (6-1 ATS). Stanford is 8-3 ATS at home vs non-conf opp and finally got a homefield edge out of their remodeled stadium in ‘08 (5-0 ATS) incl a frontdoor cover LY vs the Spartans on a meaningless TD w/:09 remaining. The Cardinal should have been 2-0 for the 1st time S/’04 but blew a 17-3 1H lead aided by a strong WF 2H and some questionable calls by the ACC refs. SJSt HC Tomey is just 8-14 ATS as an AD here incl their embarrassing performance in Wk 1 at USC (outgained 620-121). SJSt plyd well at home against Utah LW as our Underdog Play of the Week (tied 7-7 after 3Q) but were outscored 17-7 in the final frame in the 10 pt loss (+14). While the Spartans will likely play better in this P10 matchup, the Cardinal have gone 70-16-3 all-time vs the WAC and should continue that trend here.

OREGON ST 38 Cincinnati 34 - Two years ago OSU traveled to Cincy on a Thurs Nt and had a 310-229 yd edge but were done in by 7 TO’s and got pounded 34-3 (legit revenge). UC is 4-1 as an AD with 4 upsets under Kelly incl their blasting of Rut TY. QB Pike (296 ypg, 77%, 6-1 ratio) appears to have things under control in ‘09 as the off continues to chew up chunks of yardage incl a 70-3 performance vs FCS SE Missouri LW as WR Gilyard became the 1st FBS player to score on a PR, rec and rush S/’05. OSU pulled out the last second win LW vs UNLV, but never the less gave us a Top LPS 4H Winner as well as the top 4H Winner in Power Sweep on the Rebels (+7). QB Canfield has been efficient in his 1st 2 gms (79%, 3-0 ratio) which could keep QB Moevao off the field once he returns from inj. While both teams are young (10 and 9 ret sts), UC is making the odd trip to the Pacific NW (lost L/6 vs non-conf BCS tms by an avg of 21 ppg on the road) and probably won’t be prepared for the crowd volume of Reser Stadium, not to mention the fact that OSU is on a 9-4 ATS run as a HF.

RUTGERS 38 Fiu 17 - First meeting and RU’s 1st vs the SBC. FIU HC Cristobal worked as an asst coach for 3 yrs under RU HC Schiano. Rut is on a 12-3 ATS run as a DD fav and FIU is 0-15 SU vs BCS conf tms and dropped their L/9 on the road by an avg of 43-5! Rut is in their 3rd str HG and is off a 45-7 win over FCS Howard. True Fr QB Savage who joined in the summer (PS#29) made his 1st start throwing for 233 yds (62%) with 2 TD and RB Brooks rushed for 124 yds (7.3) and 3 TD. Rut rebounded from a dismal opener and rolled up 468 yds offense. FIU is off a 40-14 loss to #4 Bama. They were outgained 516-214 and were held to 1 yd rushing on 26 carries but stayed in the game til the 4Q. Sr QB McCall threw for 189 yds (50%) with a 1-0 ratio. Rutgers is at Maryland next, while FIU returns home to face Toledo. Rutgers has edge here on off (#69-109) and def (#78-107) while FIU has the ST’s edge (#29-58). The L/4 years FIU has had B2B road games vs BCS teams going 1-3 ATS in the 2nd game. Rutgers has a lot to prove and will take it one game at a time, Schiano began LY 1-5 before reaching a bowl and will again have the Knights focused beginning with this game.

ALABAMA 38 N Texas 10 - The most recent meeting was a 33-7 (-21) win in '02. Bama is 7-15 ATS as a DD fav, but 3-1 ATS as a 20+ pt fav. The Tide has beaten 3 SBC tms (WK, Ark St and FIU LW) by a comb 116-21 after losing to ULM in '07 (409-282 yd edge). UA was off a physical win over VT and started out slowly LW only leading 20-14 at the half, but held FIU to 95 yds in the 2H and only 1 rush yd in the gm. UA RB Ingram has 206 rush (5.7) and QB McElroy is avg 236 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. NT lost a heart-breaker in 2OT to Ohio LW 31-30 on a rain soaked field which resulted in 7 total TO's. QB Dodge is avg 167 ypg (66%) with a 2-1 ratio but was KO'd for most of the 2H LW (shoulder, check status). Top rusher Montgomery has 237 (6.1). Todd Dodge is 0-2 vs ranked teams losing by 54 ppg. Bama has huge edges on off (#26-75), def (#4-96) and spec tms (#3-119). Bama has Ark on deck and NT has Mid Tenn, so interest in this game might be minimal.

MARYLAND 27 Middle Tenn 21 - MT upset Maryland LY in what has been called the highest profile win in program history. The Terps won their 1st 2 meetings by an avg of 35-19. MD does have just 9 ret sts and 30 lett lost while MT is a stronger team than ‘08 with 16 ret sts and just 11 lett lost. MD is just 5-16 as a favorite, 1-5 ATS vs SBC and is off an OT game vs FCS James Madison but is playing with legitimate revenge. The Terps did have another poor performance LW with its inconsistent offense and struggling young D which probably lost starting CB Nolan Carroll (Capt) for the year (broken leg). QB Turner is avg 202 ypg (62%) with a 1-1 ratio and WR Smith has 9 rec (12.1) and is avg 26.2 on KR (1 TD). MT, however, rebounded from its season opening loss to Clemson and beat Memphis 31-14 with 436 ttl yds offense in front of a record crowd 28,105. QB Dasher is avg 218 ypg (56%) with a 3-3 ratio and has rushed for 150 yds (4.2).

S CAROLINA 34 Florida Atl 17 - This is a top situational game as FAU is coming off a bye while SC is between SEC games. SC also has a short week ahead as it plays Ole Miss Thursday. SC is 7-3 as a HF and 7-3 as a DD HF and this is their home opener. FAU usually uses these games (0-3 vs SEC avg loss 35 ppg) getting a lot of players action vs a quality team which helps them in conference play, but Schnellenberger talked tough about beating Texas (backfired) and may want a signature win. In their only meeting in ‘06 SC won 45-6 (-28’). SC has wins by just 10, 9, 7, 14, and 10 vs non-BCS foes in Sept and that includes 2 vs FCS Wofford. LW SC allowed 41 pts vs GA, the most since 2006, but held the advantage in yds 427-308 and FD 26-16. SC had a game winning pass broken up at the 7 with :22 left. FAU cashed as our Sept 5H in 2007 and do you think we may use an Owls game again?

LSU 41 Louisiana 10 - ULL is coming off an emotional 17-15 W at home over K-St when Tyler Albrecht kicked his first college FG with 32 seconds left but the Cajuns were outgained 377-287 LW and had 3 turnovers. Two years ago ULM upset Alabama and LY Bama beat two SBC teams by a comb 76-7. We bring this up because LY LSU was lucky to get past Troy as they trailed 31-10 in the 3Q at home and most of their fans left and did not see the rally. LSU was 0-2 LY ATS vs SBC’s best/worst (Troy, N Texas). After that close game they won’t take ULL lightly even in an SEC sandwich. Miles is just 9-17 as a HF but Louisiana is 0-21 vs LSU and has scored a combined 22 points in those 21 games!! LSU scored late to get an ATS push LW vs Vandy despite 326-210 yd and 22-12 FD edges. LSU has won 31 consecutive home night games.

ARIZONA ST 34 Ulm 17 - First meeting. ASU was home for the holidays LY so non-conf wins are important especially after looking past UNLV LY prior to meeting UGA. This year they are off a bye and realize that this is a must win with a journey to Athens vs the Bulldogs next week. ULM was shutout by a Top 10 team in their ‘08 opener but then led BCS foe Ark 24-6 in the 3Q but failed to come away with the upset. They took home the cover in the ‘09 ssn opener vs Texas (+42) and coasted past TX Southern LW as they held the Tigers to just 103 ttl yds while QB Revell connected on 17-19 passes (89%) for 238 yds. ULM has lost both gms vs P10 tms (UA, UCLA) by a combined 89-7. The Sun Devils have a big def advantage (#12-82), are 5-1 vs current SBC tms w/an avg score of 34-13 and HC Erickson is on a 12-4 run as a DD HF but ASU may have a hard time staying focused on this week with UGA looming.

Powersweep

PRO

4H Minnesota over DETROIT - DET took MIN to the wire in both games LY losing by 2 & 4 points but covering each. DET was outgained by an avg 347-240 but were +2 TO’s in each. Favre is only 5-11 ATS in DET. MIN got off to a slow start vs CLE LW but opened the game up in the 2H as they scored 24 unanswered points. Favre played to the strengths of the team as Peterson rushed for 180 yds (7.2) while he kept the ball moving with 110 yds passing (67%) with a 1 TD. MIN held CLE to just 37 yds passing in the 1H with 70 of the team’s overall passing yards coming in garbage time. Stafford gets his 1st home start & played like a rookie LW as he had 205 yds (43%) with 3 int & 64 of his yards came on 1 pass to C Johnson. NO was in control of the game the entire way as DET allowed 6 passing TD’s while being outgained 515-231. After facing one of the best QB’s in the NFL the Lions now face the best RB. MIN may once again start slow as they continue to integrate Favre BUT the focus of the offense is on RB Peterson until then with a stout defense to back him up. FORECAST: Minnesota 30 DETROIT 9

3H Arizona over JACKSONVILLE - ARZ is off their home opener vs SF & have a SNF home game vs IND on deck. ARZ went 0-5 ATS on the East Coast LY but JAX could have less than 40,000 fans here. JAX was unprepared for the new defensive philosophy vs IND LW & Garrard had a tough day with just 122 yds passing (50%). JAX started 2 rookie OT’s & along with only 1 proven WR in Torry Holt who had 3 rec’s (15.7). Minus a 58 yd drive setup by a missed FG in the 4Q JAX only had 41 yds in the 2H. ARZ’s lethargic preseason caught up to them LW as they struggled vs SF who cut off their downfield passing game & made them play their type of smashmouth football. ARZ didn’t complete a pass to a WR for the 1st 12:00 of the game. ARZ’s run game was again not a factor (40 yds 2.4) & Warner struggled in the pocket & hurt his throwing hand in the 2H. They did hold Gore to 30 yds rushing (1.4) with 11 tfl & a combo of 9 hits/sacks on Hill with a game under their belt. Look for ARZ to refocus & get the offense back in gear here vs a questionable JAX secondary that isn’t deep. FORECAST: Arizona 23 JACKSONVILLE 20

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H Cleveland over DENVER - DEN beat CLE 34-30 as a 3 pt AD in Brady Quinn’s 1st start on just 4 days notice on Thurs Night LY. Quinn did well passing for 239 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio vs a depleted DEN defense. DEN had 441 yds passing (57%) w/a 3-1 ratio vs busted coverage plays by CLE. Vs LY’s #6 defense the Browns did rather well with a only being outgained by a yard at the end of the 1H with a 13-10 lead thanks to a 67 yd PR for a TD. Quinn was okay with 47 yds (64%) at the half which doesn’t include an impressive 34 yd TD pass to Edwards that was called off due to questionable officiating. CLE couldn’t keep up with the talent gulf in the 2H though & allowed 24 unanswered points. DEN showed that they have a lot of room to improve vs CIN as they were outFD 8-4 & outgained 185-91 at the half & with a botched FG & an int by CIN on the DEN 20. DEN was very lucky to beat a listless CIN team & CLE did keep up with MIN for a fair amount. CLE has enough talent on the defense (DC Ryan used to be OAK’s DC) to keep them in the game & pull out an Ugly Dog (25-14 64%) road upset win here. FORECAST: Cleveland 24 DENVER 21

2H Oakland over KANSAS CITY - The visitor is 11-1 ATS in the series. The Raiders were in this situation LY coming in off a MNF home game & having to face the Chiefs on the road in Wk 2. OAK won 23-8 as a 3 pt AD with a 16-0 lead in the 4Q. OAK outrushed KC 300 (6.4) to 55 (2.9). OAK gets a favorable matchup vs a KC team that was outrushed 198 (4.8) to 29 (1.7) after allowing 135 ypg or more in 5 of their L6 games LY (148 ypg 4.8). KC QB Cassel DNP LW vs BAL as his sprained MCL wasn’t ready. The Chiefs results were wildly misleading as 14 points were setup by a blocked punt & a 70 yd int return as they were outFD 32-11 & outgained 501-188. The Raiders boosted their defense with the trade of DL Seymour from NE. KC is in transition under Haley & over achieved on the scoreboard in their loss to BAL. OAK does have to travel on a short week vs a div foe but this is an equally talented foe that is beaten up after the BAL game & are worth the look with the points. FORECAST: Oakland 20 KANSAS CITY 9

OTHER GAMES

TENNESSEE 24 Houston 17 - TEN has the schedule edge for their only home game in Sept with 3 extra days rest. TEN is 11-3 ATS after a SU loss. The Titans will also be looking to avenge a 13-12 loss as a 3 pt HF to HOU LY. TEN had already clinched the AFC South, earning a 1st RD bye but were looking ahead to PIT for the #1 AFC seed. HOU had a 22-14 FD & 375-281 yd edge. TEN’s defense did a solid job LW vs PIT as they held them to just 36 yds rush (1.1) & hit Roethlisberger 12 times in the game. TEN special teams cost them with only 73 total yards on KR/PR’s with Bironas missing a 37 yd FG & having a 31 yd FG blocked. HOU sustained a crushing loss to a rookie QB at home to open the season. Schaub couldn’t find a rhythm as he only had 166 yds (55%) with an 0-1 ratio with a meager 5.0 ypa. RB Slaton was held to just 17 yds (1.9) as HOU was outgained 462-183. HOU only had 2 drives inside Jets territory all day & both ended in TO’s. The Texans may have more potential on offense in the long hall but TEN is better all around defensively right now at home with the extra rest.

New England 31 NY JETS 10 - The visitor is 7-0 ATS & NE is 17-6 ATS as an AF. NE is off LW’s MNF game (6-3 ATS after) vs BUF. NE does get a great matchup with Belichick vs rookie QB Sanchez. Belichick’s Patriots are 5-1 SU/ATS & O/U vs rookie QB’s. Ryan did call out Belichick in the offseason saying he didn’t take the Jets job “to kiss his rings” in an attempt to build the team’s swagger. The Jets backed it up LW as they blew out the Texans with Sanchez looking solid with 272 yds (58%) with a 1-1 ratio (8.8 ypa). The Jets had 22-11 FD & 462-183 yd edges. The Jets performance will erase any NE tendency to underestimate Sanchez. NE also has a good grasp of the Jets offense as they kept the same system that OC Schottenheimer ran under Pennington/Favre. NE has also had their 1st road game vs the Jets the L3Y winning each SU & ATS. While there is no line due to the MNF game we’ll side with one of the best defensive minded coaches in the NFL here to take up Ryan’s challenge.

GREEN BAY 28 Cincinnati 21 - CIN is off a heartbreaking loss to DEN in which the Bengals scored the go ahead TD with :38 left then DEN had a fluke 87 yd TD after a CIN CB deflected a pass & had it bounce to the DEN WR. CIN’s offense was out of sync all day as on 3 drives inside the DEN 30 they had a fumble on a FG, int & 91 yd drive for a TD. Prior to the TD drive CIN had 24 yds for the entire 2H. GB’s offense has looked solid under Rodgers in the preseason & LY’s #8 offense wasn’t the reason for their struggles at the end of the season. While CIN’s offense has potential it’s clear now that they are in the same boat as IND was LY when Manning didn’t practice all preseason & he didn’t get up to speed untilOct. With CIN’s uncertain emotional state despite a good defensive performance (only 10 FD for DEN, 75 yds rushing 3.8) & no line due to the SNF game we’ll call for GB by 7.

PHILADELPHIA 23 New Orleans 17 - The Eagles beat the Saints 38-23 as a 3 pt AD in the last meeting in 2007. Both teams come in off big Wk 1 wins as NO shredded the Lions with a 515-231 yd edge. Brees set a personal record with 6 TD’s but now gets a PHI team that made short work of CAR after they allowed a 13pl/70 yd drive on the games 1st drive. From there PHI outgained CAR 267-99 scoring 24 pts in 6:00 at one point. PHI held CAR to negative yards on 5 drives, pulled in 5 int’s while adding an 85 yd PR for a TD. Brees is a pocket QB that needs to get into a rhythm early to get the offense going. PHI is still running the same exotic blitz system with a new DC. McNabb’s status is doubtful (broken ribs) & he is likely to rest as they have a home game vs KC on deck followed by a bye week. PHI is expected to go with Kevin Kolb (23 yds 64% LW) as they waived AJ Feeley & Vick isn’t eligible until Wk 3. PHI’s win is more impressive as it is over a higher quality foe & they do get the benefit of the injury system where teams rise up when a key player is out for their 1st game.

ATLANTA 27 Carolina 13 - The teams split the series LY with the home team winning each game SU & ATS. CAR opened the PHI game strong as they went 70/13pl for the game’s 1st score. It went downhill rapidly for CAR afterwards due to 5 TO”s which setup 24 pts for PHI. Delhomme (9 int’s in his L51 pass att) was pulled late in the 3Q with CAR down 38-10 while being outgained 230-108. LY’s #3 rush offense headed by Williams & Stewart combined for 79 yds (2.9). ATL came within 3:22 of posting their 1st shutout in 102 games by forcing 4 TO’s which they converted into 10 points. Ryan was very efficient passing for 229 yds (61%) with a 2-0 ratio. ATL’s run game wasn’t a factor as they only had 68 yds (2.5) but ATL had an avg drive start on their own 47. ATL is 7-1 ATS at home, showed that they could contain the run holding MIA’s top 2 RB’s to 82 yds (4.8) & we’ll side with Ryan at home as he disproves the sophomore slump.

WASHINGTON 20 St Louis 6 - The Rams got their 1st win of 2008 vs WAS when they upset them 19-17 as a 13 pt AD. STL won on a 49 yd FG with no time left despite being outFD 22-8 & outgained 368-200. WAS had 3 fmbl & an int that was returned 75 yds for a TD right at the end of the 1H. STL has to travel for the 2nd straight week going from one end of the country to another as former Giants DC Spagnuolo returns. STL looked very disorganized LW in their blowout loss to SEA. STL was outgained 446-247 as they committed 10 penalties, went 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns as Bulger had 111 yds passing going into the 4Q & just a 5.3 ypa overall. WAS takes a huge step down here after facing the Giants as they were outgained 351-272 & Portis was held to 62 yds (3.9). Despite the 17 pts WAS still has work to do as 1 TD came on a fake FG at the end of the 1H & are well aware the other came in garbage time. WAS greatest margin of victory LY was 8 pts & they are 1-5 ATS as a favorite. However, WAS has a sizeable edge in talent in defensive talent & Portis should bounce back here.

SAN FRANCISCO 20 Seattle 14 - The visitor is 4-1 ATS. SEA beat SF 34-14 as a 5.5 pt AD in Singletary’s 1st game as HC LY. SEA was without Hasselbeck & had a 20-3 lead at the end of the 1H. Singletary switched to Hill who led SF to 10 pts on his 1st 2 drives. SF did have a 388-261 yd edge. Without 2 starting OL & their best CB LW, SEA blew out a threadbare STL team 28-0 with a 446-247 yd edge. Hasselbeck had 279 yds passing (69%) with a 3-2 ratio in his return but STL’s talent level is below TB’s & equivalent to DET’s. SF forced a sluggish ARZ team to play its type of smashmouth football & while they didn’t get the ground game going vs ARZ (21 yds 0.8) SEA could be without MLB Tatupu (hamstring) here. Gore is an elite RB vs a lighter speed oriented defense who is off a soft foe & SF gets the win.

BUFFALO 23 Tampa Bay 13 - The Bills are off LW’s MNF game & it’s unknown how they fared with a new 3 new starters on their OL. The off-season excitement of the hurry up offense was tempered with 0 preseason TD’s by the Bills #1’s and with the release of the OC. While the Bills now have a game under their belt we expect positive improvement after their probable loss at New England. TB’s offense had a better then expected opener outFD DAL 26-18 while gaining 450 yds. They did gain almost a third of those yards (154) on 5 plays which will be much tougher to gain on the road. The Buc’s defense however struggled at home LW allowing 8.9 ypp as their poor tackling allowed DAL to gain 18+ yards on 9 separate plays. BUF is now 14-4 ATS after NE & with a 4 game home losing streak and a potential 0-2 start to this season there will be no letting off the gas. We’ll side with the better team at home facing a new head coach preparing his team for his first road game.

SAN DIEGO 23 Baltimore 17 - The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in West Coast games. BAL had an interesting game vs KC LW as they posted 12-3 FD & 215-56 yd edges at the end of the 1H. BAL didn’t allow KC to get its initial FD until 2:39 left in the 1H. They did lose their focus with a blocked punt & 70 yd Int return setting up 14 pts for KC. SD is off LW’s MNF game vs OAK go from LY’s #27 D to LY’s #2 D that looked in midseason form LW. SD does have an advantage in the passing game with their receiving unit vs a very thin BAL CB unit that wasn’t challenged (177 yds LW) much by KC. Rivers avg 264 ypg (66%) with an 11-1 ratio in Dec LY & did look sharp in the preseason. There is no line due to MNF & we want to see if SD is as balanced on offense as they are billed to be & how the defense runs after a full offseason under DC Rivera with Merriman back. We will call for SD by 6 & await the line.

Pittsburgh 28 CHICAGO 24 - The Steelers come in with the schedule edge with 3 days rest vs a CHI team that is off a SNF road game vs GB. PIT will be without SS Polamalu (sprain knee) for 3-6 weeks but should get LB Timmons back. PIT’s OL issues once again reared its ugly head as they could only get 36 yds rushing (1.6) & let Roethlisberger get hit 12 times. He did have an impressive 363 yds passing (77%) with a 1-2 ratio vs LY’s #9 pass def with 1 int being a Hail Mary at the end of the 1H. While CHI’s offense did get a big boost with Cutler being added, PIT only allowed 200 yds passing in 3 of it’s L17 games with three 100 yd rushers in its L/83. CHI does have some weapons with RB Forte (77 ypg 3.6 ypc LY) & TE Olsen (54 rec 10.6) but PIT’s LB’s are built to take away those threats. Cutler makes the Bears a dangerous team but PIT has the better WR’s, defense & P Sepulveda gives PIT an improved special teams to neutralize Hester & we’ll call for the road team by 4.

NY Giants at DALLAS - DAL started off slow vs TB as they were outgained in the 1H & settled for 2 FG’s on their 1st 2 drives. Romo led 3 drives for 79, 81 & 74 yds after for the win. NYG dominated WAS more than the final or yd stats (351-272) indicate as they had a 12:00+ TOP edge & gave up a 72/7pl garbage time drive. DAL has a huge home edge but with how they closed out Texas Stadium the pressure is more on them than NYG. Get this play on the NC Sports Debit Card for only $9 after 11:00 am on Sunday.

Indianapolis at MIAMI - MNF - The Colts got a tough win vs JAX LW as Manning tied the franchise record for career wins & new HC Jim Caldwell got his 1st win. IND lost #2 WR Gonzalez (right knee) & his status is unknown. MIA turned the ball over 4 times to set up 10 pts for the Falcons & they will be under added pressure here as they have a road trip to SD on deck.

POINTWISE RED SHEET

SEPTEMBER 19, 2009

AUBURN 37 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 4, and is now minus 6½. Did
you really expect anything else? The Tigers have served us well thus far, & despite the
Mounties in a rare dog role (only 2nd such setup in last 3+ regular seasons), we are not
about to jump from this moneymaker. Auburn has topped 300 RYs in both outings (691 to
date) behind Tate & McCalebb, & shouldn't be contained by the comparatively green
WestVirginia "D" line. Tigs proved their mettle LW, with total domination, after falling behind,
17-14, with just 4 minutes left in half, winning 49-24. Color this "revenge".
RATING: AUBURN 89

TEXAS 51 - Texas Tech 21 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Texas minus 17½, and is now minus 16½. Even
the most casual of fans well remembers the incredible windup to last year's war between
these 2, as the 'Horns came all the way back from 29-13 deficit in the 3rd, taking the lead in
the final 1½ minutes, only to lose it on a 28-yd Harrell-to-Crabtree pass in the final second.
'Horns rank 2nd in the land, & have had this one in their sights since that wrencher. Have
McCoy, along with 7 other "O" starters, & seem to always play their best as host of this
series. Spread seems high, especially off Tech's rout of Rice, but we lay it.
RATING: TEXAS 89

KANSAS 45 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 19, and is now minus 21. Jays were the talk
of the land for most of the '07 season, covering their 1st 10 games, & winding up at 12-1 SU,
as well as 11-1 ATS. But LY, despite the return of 15 starters, including the irrepressible
Reesing at QB, the magic just wasn't there, as its defense, which eventually finished 90th in
the nation, couldn't complement its productive offense. But things are harking back to '07,
thus far, as they're extremely balance, & have thus far, stymied foe attacks. Imps can't run,
so unable to shorten it. Note that KU is stellar 11-1 ATS as a HF.
RATING: KANSAS 88

NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 27 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 11, and is still minus 11.
A week ago, we begged off the obvious choice of the puppy in the NoDame/Michigan series.
We have made plenty of hay over the years, with that simple trend, but decided not to step
out, due to the plethora of questions surrounding the Wolves. Well, once again there was
money to be made with the dog, in that stunning upset (final 0:11). This series is also knee-
deep in tradition, namely the barnburner. Last week, the Spartans were caught peeking to
this contest, in their upset to CentralMichigan. But will be ready.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

California 38 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at California minus 13½, and is now minus 14. A
year ago, the Bears opened with a pair of wins & covers, the 2nd being a 66-3 wipeout of
WashingtonSt. They then were installed as a 2-TD chalk at Maryland in a 12:00 noon (East-
ern) start. It all seemed too easy, & it was, as they were completely dominated by the Terps,
with the eventual 35-27 final hardly reflective of the game itself. Well, they are again off to an
impressive start, & again travel east for a noon start. You can bet that they've learned their
lesson. Minny has a pair of 4th quarter comeback wins. Not here.
RATING: CALIFORNIA 88

CHICAGO 23 - Pittsburgh 19- (4:15) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. These
2 squads in off completely opposite windups, with the champ Steelers taking Tennessee in
OT, and the Bears going down to the Packers in the final 1:11. Both teams have to over-
come crucial defensive injuries as Steelers will go it without Polamalu, & Chicago without
Urlacher. And defense is surely their game. Pitt could do nothing, overland, in opening
squeaker (1.6 ypr), so the burden pretty much falls on Ben's shoulders. Bears had 126-yd
edge over the Packers, but were killed by 4 Cutler INTs. Don't look for repeat.
RATING: CHICAGO 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BoiseSt, Bowling Green, OklaSt, BYU -- NFL: Redskins, Cards, Colts

POINTWISE FOOTBALL PROPHESY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

TEXAS over Texas Tech RATING: 1
BOWLING GREEN over Marshall RATING: 1
AUBURN over West Virginia RATING: 2
STANFORD over San Jose State RATING: 2
AIR FORCE over New Mexico RATING: 3
BUFFALO over Central Florida RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Oregon State RATING: 5
ARIZONA over Iowa RATING: 5

THURSDAY
Georgia Tech 38 - MIAMI-FLA - 27 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- 'Cane QB Harris was just
spectacular in barnburning win over FlaSt (386 PYs). But Tech represents 2nd of
brutal 4-game start, with VaTech, & Okla on deck. Jackets have run for 636 yds
so far, but allowing 30 ppg in last 7 lined tilts. However, UM has been home flop.

FRIDAY
Boise State 37 - FRESNO STATE 17 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Just 8 pts & 69 RYs
allowed by Broncs thus far, with Moore clicking for 4 TD tosses LW. Boise is only
13 pts from a 13-0 ATS run, so always there. Fresno in off outstatting Wisconsin
(7 minute edge), but 3 Colburn TDs offsetting his 4 TDs throws. Broncos own it.

SATURDAY
ARMY 27 - Ball State 13 - (12:00) -- From the heights to the depths for Cards,
who went 12-0 in LY's regular season. Just 26 pts & 25 FDs TY (NoTexas &
NwHampshire), running for 13 yds LW. Cadets have 566-110 RY edge so far,
but 2 INTs taken the distance killed them in loss to Duke. No such gifts in this.

PURDUE 48 - Northern Illinois 24 - (12:00) -- Realize this bucks Wise Points,
even with Boilers in Oregon/NoDame sandwich, & in off wrenching loss (missed
2-pt try in final 1:01). But check 36:19-23:41 time edge, as well as Bolden's
357 RYs so far. NIU moves it, behind RB Brown, but this is its 3rd straight RG.

MICHIGAN 45 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (12:00) -- Rodriguez detractors are a
dwindling lot, with unexpectedly quick start, behind RB Minor, & QB Forcier,
who was 23-of-33 & 2 TDs in upset of NoDame (winning pass in final 0:11).
Just opposite for Eagles, who went down to N'western in last 6 seconds. Pass.

PITTSBURGH 31 - Navy 30 - (6:00) -- Let's see. Visitor is 11-5 ATS in Middie
tilts, but dog is 23-8 ATS in Panther games. Pitt RB Lewis now at 319 yds & 5
TDs, & check QB Stull with 3 TDs vs Buffalo. But allowed 500 yds in that win,
with 27 pts off TOs. Navy +64½ ATS last 5 games, & 32 unanswered pts LW.

SYRACUSE 20 - Northwestern 19 - (7:00) -- Mere 23-yd edge for 'Cats in
narrow escape vs EastMich, winning in final 0:06, as 3-TD favs. Dog now nice
24-7 ATS in NW games, so why not a shot with 'Cuse, despite horrid run "O"
(2.4 ypr), with just 15 & 13 FDs. But that Orange "D" is vastly improved. Tight.

Boston College 27 - CLEMSON 25 - (12:00) -- Would you believe that Tiger QB
Parker's 5 TD passes to date average 45 yds. CU in off heartbreaker in final
minute, after overcoming 24-pt deficit at GaTech. Eagles ceding only 155 ypg,
but that's vs N'Eastern & Kent. This one always goes to the final gun, & again.

PENN STATE 48 - Temple 10 - (12:00) -- Two straight losing ATS efforts for Nits,
who are averaging 39.5 ppg in last 8 lined HGs. Just 107 RYpg vs LY's 102nd
& 87th rated run "D"s, but they've destroyed Owls last 2 hosters, & this a home
series. Sure, Iowa revenger is directly on deck, but Lions prepare for it in style.

NORTH CAROLINA 26 - East Carolina 22 - (12:00) -- Sixteen starters return for
ECU, but unimpressive. Just 13 FDs & >270 yd deficit at WVa. No rushing &
Pinkney anemic 16-of-39 LW. Tars also seeking overland game: 35 yds (0.9
ypr) in taking UConn (safety the difference). Dog 20-7 ATS in UNC tilts. Ditto.

WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Miami-Ohio 10 - (7:00) -- Hiller (259, 266 PYs) is
Broncs' only "O", with just 60 RYs (1.1 ypr) in 2 games. But Miami has sweet
90-0 pt, & 929-382 yd deficits thus far, & is allowing 42 ppg in last 7 contests.

VANDERBILT 27 - Mississippi State 17 - (7:00) -- Just 210 yds for 'Dores vs
LSU, which allowed 478 preceding wk (Washington). And Vandy came from
433 RYs to 122. But same for Bulldogs, whose "D" ceded 390 RYs in loss to
Auburn, after holding opening foe to 62. Lost last 2 RGs by 38 pts ATS. Pass.

COLORADO 30 - Wyoming 20 - (3:30) -- Want nothing to do with this one. CU
in off 54 pt "D" effort at Toledo. Can't run (2.8 ypr TY), with QB Hawkins having
bell rung late in that one. 'Pokes needed 5 picks to take Weber, & managed no
"O" TDs vs Texas. No TD passes as of yet. Nothing but negatives. Stay away.

Arizona 24 - IOWA 17 - (3:30) -- IowaSt/PennSt sandwich for Hawkeyes, who
turned 4 TOs into TDs in 35-3 win over Cycs. Note just a 1-yd RY edge vs ISt.
'Cats averaging 35.6 ppg since start of LY, & check a 611-141 RY advantage
TY, with Grigsby motoring at 325 yds. Held potent CentMich to 6 pts. Upset.

AKRON 23 - Indiana 20 - (3:30) -- Zips came from 28 RYs (PennSt) to 250
(MorganSt). And from a 329-yd deficit to a 309-yd edge. Who wouldn't? Indy
in mere 6 & 5 pt wins vs likes of EastKy, & WestMich. Decent run "D", but 158
pt ATS deficit in last 13 outings. QB dual: IU's Chappell vs UA's Jacquemain.

KANSAS 44 - Duke 14 - (12:00) -- Katie, bar the door! Jays lighting it up again,
behind QB Reesing & RB Sharp (227 RYs), with 583-78 RY edge. An 11-1 HF.
Sure, Imps are also solid in this setup (Wise Points), but check only 89 RYs in
2 gms (1.9 ypr), vs likes of Richmond & Army. QBs Lewis & Renfree not enuff.

SO MISSISSIPPI 31 - Virginia 10 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Eagles hurt us on all three
services LW, winning by mere 7 pts despite 23-11 FD, 409-194 yd edges, with
QB Davis 23-of-33 & Fletcher >100 RYs. Just 7 FDs for Cavs vs TCU, while
never snapping the ball in the red zone. 19 FDs in 2 games, allowing 8 sacks.

Utah 30 - OREGON 24 - (3:30 - ESPN) -- Sixteen straight wins for Utes, but yet
to cover (2½, 4 pt misses). Cain decent 38-of-61 & Asiata at 251 RYs, & "D"
still solid (13.8 ppg last 9 tilts). Ducks in luckout win over Purdue (TDs on INT
& fumble returns; 95-yd deficit), tho QB Masoli double threat. Utes make it 17.

So California 45 - WASHINGTON 14 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Classic 96-yd drive won
it for Troy at OhioSt, with frosh QB Barkley seemingly seasoned vet. SC held
Bucks to 10 FDs, 88 RYs, & 11-of-25 overhead. Note 342 RYs in opening win,
& 450-95 pt edge since losing to OregSt LY. Huskies snapped 15-game losing
skein LW, but missed cover in final 0:13. Allowing 34 ppg in last 17 contests.

UCLA 27 - Kansas State 13 - (10:15) -- Moldy 'Cat "O" now at 18 ppg vs likes of
UMass & Lafayette, losing to latter in final 0:32. Thus, logic dictates that KSt
won't do much vs Bruins, who've allowed only 20 FDs & 324 yds over their last
7 quarters. Just 12 FDs & 186 yds for Uclans at Tennessee, but 4 takeaways.

VIRGINIA TECH 33 - Nebraska 24 - (3:30) -- Kicking ourselves for not jumping
on Hokies in bounceback effort vs Marshall. Nearly quadrupled "O" after sorry
opening day loss (from 64 to 444 RYs, behind Wilson & Williams). Huskers
30+ pts 15 of last 18, with Lee now 42-of-57. Try an 87-12 pt edge vs Sunbelt.

NOTRE DAME 33 - Michigan State 31 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Still no running for MSt,
without Ringer. Saw 27-20 lead with 0:35 left, turn into 29-27 loss to CentMich,
in possible look-ahead. Irish must regroup off losing in last 0:11 at Michigan.
Clausen 62-of-86 for 1,052 yds & 12 TDs last 3 games, & 1,000 ND yds TY.

Ohio State 45 - Toledo 17 - (12:00 - @ Cleveland) -- USC/Illinois sandwich for
Bucks. Not exactly scintillating in late loss to USC (10 FDs, 88 RYs, & Pryor
just 11-of-25). Rockets' Opelt now at 660 yds & 9 TDs, & check Toledo's 624
yds vs Colorado. But if Bucks are recovered, have to see a solid bounceback.

AUBURN 34 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45) -- Call reverse of LY, despite emergence
of Mountie QB Brown (24-of-31 for 390 yds & 4 TDs) in rout of ECaro (272 yd
edge). Had Tigs atop all 3 services LW, & loved nearly 600-yd effort vs MissSt
in 35-7 windup. Have run for 691 yds behind Tate & McCalebb. Revenge call.

FLORIDA 48 - Tennessee 10 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Quite a turnaround for Vols, who
came from 657 yds to just 208, with QB Crompton coming from 5 TD passes
to 3 INTs. UT was held below 15 pts 7 times LY, with LW dredging up those
inept efforts. Not proper medicine in facing this juggernaut, which has 455-117
pt edge in last 10 lined gms (+160½ ATS). Bucking Gators is simply pure folly.

Smu 33 - WASHINGTON STATE 23 - (5:00) -- Cougars still not ready for prime
time. Now a 638-150 pt deficit in lined games since '08 onset, & in off allowing
626 yds. And try 7 TOs. Ponies stopped tying 2-pt try in final 0:13 in upset of
Uab. Still no running, & allowing 40 ppg last 9 road gms, but had 4 picks LW.

IDAHO 31 - San Diego State 27 - (5:00) -- Aztec QB Lindley bombed Vandals in
'08 (Wise Points), but SDSt lost on the road, where they've allowed 44 ppg in
last 5 travellers. Ranked 116th in running LY, & managed only 39 RYs in only
'09 lined contest. UI covered vs Wash in final 0:14, & check 279 Enderle PYs.

COLORADO STATE 26 - Nevada 25 - (5:00) -- Don't like this one a bit. Rams
nearly got caught, off short week, emotional win over Colorado, taking Weber
by single pt. Check only 26 combined FDs for ColoSt thus far, but its run "D"
has allowed only 29 & 58 yds (1.5 ypr). 'Pack "D": 37 ppg in last 22 lined tilts.

Bowling Green 37 - MARSHALL 17 - (7:00) -- Only one way to go when Falcs
take the field, with the visitor. Guest now +181½ pts ATS last 14 BG tilts, & try
24, 13 pts covers this year, with QB Sheehan at 545 PYs. Just a 33-yd deficit
at Mizzou. Herd ranked 103rd in total "D" LY, & allowed 444 RYs LW. Falcons

California 33 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Two straight 4th quarter comeback
wins for Minny, but note 24-14 FD deficit vs AirForce. At minus 89½ pts ATS
in last 4 HGs. Cal has Oreg & USC on deck, but rolling it up behind Best (281
RYs on only 17 carries TY: 10-4 ypr). Bucks 13-3 host ATS edge in Bear gms.

Buffalo 33 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 20- (7:30) -- A 215-yd deficit for Knights LW,
but only 7-pt loss. Ouch! Have just 25 FDs for the year, & the visitor is +76 pts
ATS in their last 5 games. Bulls spectacular 9-0 ATS away, & with QB Maynard
tossing for 400 yds, 4 TDs vs Pitt, it should continue. UB at 31 ppg last 11 tilts.

OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Rice 13 - (7:00) -- Pity the Owls, catching the 'Pokes
off Houston shocker, in which they allowed 32 FDs & >500 yds. And now both
Hunter & Bryant are ailing. But Rice (3rd straight RG) can't contain anyone
(49.5 ppg), has no running gm, & triumverate of QBs still highly questionable.

OKLAHOMA 45 - Tulsa 34 - (3:30) -- Jones for Bradford resulted in 3 TDs & 286
PYs, in OU 64-0 rout of IdahoSt, which lost in near identical fashion (50-3) at
ArizSt previous wk. 'Canes continue on, with Kinne now at 37-of-55 (521 yds),
tossing for 4 TDs vs NwMex. And allowing just 1.6 ypr TY. Stay under spot.

BAYLOR 34 - Connecticut 17 - (5:00) -- Rested Bears continue to impress, and
now +107 pts ATS in 10 of last 11 lined affairs (+53½ pts last 3 HGs). Griffin
decided edge over UConn's Frazer (4 INTs TY). Nothing wrong with Husky run
"D" (1.4 ypr), but off wrenching loss, & no Brown, who ran wild vs Baylor in '08.

TEXAS A&M 35 - Utah State 14 - (7:00) -- Both had LW off, after dissimilar
openings. Ags a dedicated squad, off LY's down campaign, with QB Johnson
a nice 31-of-49 for 349 yds in 41-6 rout of NewMex. Ags a decent overland gm
in loss to Utah (233-221 yd deficit), with 148 RYs from Turbin (11.4 ypr). Pass.

KENTUCKY 38 - Louisville 17 - (12:00) -- Cards were 89th in scoring "D" in '08
but opened with shutout win over IndianaSt. But it ends here, as they've been
on a steady decline since Petrino moved on in '07. 'Cats a balanced 245 RY,
243 PY attack in 42-0 annihilation of Miami-Ohio & took the 'Ville by 25 yr ago.

Iowa State 27 - KENT STATE 17 - (7:00) -- Not the best of "D"s here as Cycs
have allowed 40.3 ppg in their last 10 lined affairs, while Flashes have been
stung for >37 pts 6 times since LY. State took advantage of the TO in LY's win,
& in off mere 191-190 RY deficit vs Iowa. Edge to Cycs if mistakes kept down.

BYU 34 - Florida State 20 - (7:00) -- Quite a defense unveiled by the Coogs thus
far, holding mighty Oklahoma to 265 yds, & just 162 in walkthrough at Tulane
LW (23 & 33 pt covers). And Hall a solid 50-of-70 for 638 yds in those 2. FSt
sent it in in 19-pt effort vs J'VilleSt (15 FDs), & will have to be at their best hr.

ARKANSAS 31 - Georgia 16 - (7:45) -- Rested Hogs return17 starters, after
piling up 591 yds vs MoSt, with Mallett & Wilson tossing for 447 yds. Should
move it vs 'Dawgs, whose formerly impenetrable "D" has been exposed of late
(>36 pts 5 of last 8). A 10 FD, 119 yd deficit vs SoCar, with rushing "O" a ??

Air Force 38 - NEW MEXICO 13 - (7:30) -- Tough loss for Falcs at Minny, as they
had 261-108 RY edge, only to lose on fumble return TD (4-pt ATS loss). Now
at 735 RYs for the year. Own this series of late (5-of-5), & catch Lobos at true
nadir. Just 1.5 ypr TY, along with 10 sacks, in their 85-16 combined pt deficit.

Utep 27 - NEW MEXICO STATE 13 - (8:00 - CBS) -- Not interested in this one.
Ags lost without Holbrook, altho they did present Walker with his first win in
squeaker over PrairieView. Can't contain the run, but just 4 RYs for Utep in
LW's loss, so a wash. Miners 0-2 ATS, by 15½ & 15. What does it all mean?

TEXAS 51- Texas Tech 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Best finish of the year in LY's heart
stopping Raider win, in which they amassed 551 yds. New Tech QB Potts off
7 TD effort in rout of Rice, & now at 860 PYs for the year. 'Horns this year: wins
by 59-20 & 41-10, but 4, & 1 pt ATS misses. McCoy: 654 yds. Steers normallly
roll at home over Raiders, who have a 47 ppg "D" in their last 3 RGs. Revenge!

Hawaii 31 - UNLV 30 - (11:00) -- Rebs came within 7 ticks of upsetting OregSt
so have the firepower behind Clayton, who is highly respectable 31-of-43 for
the year. 'Bow "D" not to be trusted (34 ppg last 7 RGs), but check 453 PYs &
3 TDs for Alexander in win over WashSt (1st BCS road success in 7 attempts).

STANFORD 40 - San Jose State 10 - (9:00) -- Card must regroup off blowing
17-3 lead over WakeForest, losing in final 0:02. Have overland game in Gerhart
(>200 yds), & passing game in QB Luck (23-of-34). Spartans have incredible
593-31 RY deficit so far, & are at 9 ppg in last 5 outings. Card take advantage.

Cincinnati 34 - OREGON STATE 20- (6:45) -- Check Bearcats' 117-18 pt edge,
along with a 1,142-469 TY advantage thus far. Pike: 6 TD passes; RB/WR
Gilyard: 4 TDs LW. Just 37 pts from a 33-4 spread run! Beavs got 166 RYs
from Jacquizz, & 25-of-31 showing from Canfield LW, but just narow 2-pt win

ADDED GAMES

RUTGERS 37 - Fla-International 10 ALABAMA 41 - North Texas 13
MARYLAND 23 - Middle Tenn St 21 SO CAROLINA 43 - Fla-Atlantic 17
Uab 24 - TROY 21 LSU 38 - Louisiana-Lafayette 3
ARIZONA STATE 27 - Louisiana-Monroe 16

POINTWISE PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

NFL KEY RELEASES

WASHINGTON over St Louis RATING: 3
NEW ENGLAND over New York Jets RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over Houston RATING: 4
CHICAGO over Pittsburgh RATING: 4
INDIANAPOLIS over Miami RATING: 5

Oakland 23 - KANSAS CITY 20 - (1:00) -- Always difficult to back a Monday Nite
team playing on the road the following week, but going with the visitor in this
series has been pure gold, covering the last 6. The Chiefs went it without
Cassel at QB in loss to the Ravens, altho it was tied until final 2:06. But facts
don't lie, so 32-11 FD, 501-188 yd, & 20 minute deficits vs Baltimore can't be
dismissed. Visitor 18-9 ATS in KC games, as Chiefs lost 23-8 here LY. And
the Raiders covered 2 of their last 3 RGs by 30 & 20 pts. This one by the book.

TENNESSEE 27 - Houston 13 - (1:00) -- Call near repeat of LY's 31-12 Titan
win on this field. Tennessee stayed with the Steelers, before OT loss, holding
Pitt to just 36 RYs (1.6 ypr). That coincides nicely with Texans managing just
38 RYs (152 RY deficit) in total embarrassment hosting the Jets. Just 11 FDs,
along with a 279-yd deficit, with their only TD coming on a fumble return. The
Titans are on a 12-5-1 ATS run, holding 19 of their last 22 opponents under 18
pts. And they're a 14-4 spread play vs division foes. Cannot see an 0-2 start.

New England 34 - New York Jets 20 - (1:00) -- Wow! Check NY's pulverizing
of the Texans. A 462-183 yd edge, a 22-11 FD advantage, & 190-38 RY edge
(Jones: 107 RY)! Oh, and how about a 21½ pt cover. Sanchez was super in
his first outing, clicking on 18-of-31 for 272 yds & a TD (also a pick). But this
is where it gets sticky. Sure, catching Pats off Monday is a plus, but note that
the visitor is 9-0 ATS in NY division games, & 13-5 in Patriot games. NewEng
is at 33.5 ppg in its last 4 RGs, & the Jets are 0-10 ATS hosting this series.

GREEN BAY 19 - Cincinnati 16 - (1:00) -- Packers came in as Phone & RedSheet
play with 50-yd TD pass in final 1:11, along with 2-pt conversion. Managed
only 12 FDs, with a 126-yd deficit in that one. Rodgers just 16-of-27 for 100
yds, before clicking on the winner. Bengals let us down, with a mere 7 pts vs
a Denver "D" which allowed 28 ppg LY. Palmer: 2 INTs, 0 TDs. As a matter of
fact, Cincy's only TD came in final 0:38, before unbelievable loss. Bengals
have 3 division on deck, but are 22-14 ATS away, & Pack just 8-13 ATS a HF.

Minnesota 23 - DETROIT 19 - (1:00) -- Eighteen straight losses & counting for
pitiful Lions. Stafford (3 INTs) not the answer in opening 45-27 loss at NOrleans
in which Detroit had a mere 515-231 yd deficit, running for 33 paltry yds. That
one went against recent Lion trend, in which the visitor had covered 12-of-13.
Minny LW: no much passing but a 225-89 RY edge behind another 180 yds &
3 TDs from Peterson (7.2 ypr). And how about Brett: 14-of-21 a TD. Minny
just 3-11 ATS as division RF, while Detroit is 32-19 ATS off SU loss of 15+ pts.

New Orleans 27 - PHILADELPHIA 23 - (1:00) -- Trouble in Philly, despite 38-10
rout of the Panthers (31 unanswered pts), as McNabb cracked a rib & should
miss at least a week. Not the best of news in trying to stay with the brilliance
of this Saint offense, which amassed 45 pts & 515 yds in the destruction of
Detroit. Brees: 6 TD passes, tying Billy Kilmer's franchise record, set in 1969.
Goes along nicely with Drew's 34 '08 scoring passes. Saints 8-1 ATS vs non
division, altho they are currently 1-7 ATS at Philly. But Donovan's injury is key.

ATLANTA 23 - Carolina 22 - (1:00) -- Talk about your opposites. The Panthers
turned it over no less than 7 times in their rout loss to the Eagles, while the
Falcons had 4 takeaways (10 pts off TOs), in 19-7 win over the Dolphins. QB
Delhomme turning into quite a detriment, with 9 INTs & 11 total TOs in his last
2 games. And check a 100-RY deficit for the NFL's 2nd best overland team of
'08. Falcs had just 1 legit TD drive vs the Fish, garnering only 281 yds. Chalk
is 11-4 ATS in Panther gms, but Carolina 7-0 ATS off allowing at least 35 pts.

WASHINGTON 27 - St Louis 7 - (1:00) -- Ram futility continues unabated. Not
a single pt at Seattle, with a 200-yd deficit. Bulger just 17-of-34. So now StL
has a 175-49 pt deficit in its last 5 RGs, while failing to top 20 pts in 15 of its
last 17 outings. 'Skins not the picture of "O" acuteness themselves, failing to
top 17 pts in 9 of last 12 games. But at least a solid "D" (#4 LY), & now they
have Haynesworth (4 tackles LW). Rams 14-30 ATS on non-division road, as
well as 11-24 ATS on grass, & 0-6 ATS off a division RG. 'Skins rather easily.

Arizona 27 - JACKSONVILLE 20 - (1:00) -- Cards were at 30.1 ppg in their prior
27 games, before being held to just 16 by the Niners, in that upset. Warner: 3
sacks & 2 picks. But check holding SanFran to only 203 yds. Sure, Arizona
lost its last 2 regular season RGs by 48-20 & 47-7 counts, but rolled through
the playoffs. Jags on 5-12 ATS slide, so note only 12 FDs & 228 yds in loss to
Indy. Visitor is 11-5 ATS in J'Ville contests, & Jags only 1-6 ATS as Sept favs.
Cards 16-7 ATS off a loss of <7 pts, so a vote for LY's SuperBowler in an upset.

SAN FRANCISCO 19 - Seattle 16 - (4:05) -- Seahawks came thru in fine style
with opening day wipeout of the Rams (200-yd edge), as Hasselbeck was a
solid 25-of-36 for 279 yds & 3 TDs. And that after being picked on 2 of his first
3 throws. And check RB Jones with 117 yds. But the Niners have been on a
tear since Singletary took over. Now +52½ pts ATS, while allowing less than
17 pts in 6 of their last 8 games, and only 10 pts from a 9-0 ATS run. Seattle is
7-16 ATS off a DD division win. Niners lost 34-14 here LY, so they'll be ready.

Tampa Bay 16 - BUFFALO 10 - (4:05) -- Wouldn't think so from LW's 34-21 loss
to the Cowboys, but note Tampa with a 26-18 FD edge, while piling up 446 yds.
Cadillac finally healthy, as his 97 RYs in that one show (7.5 ypr), while Leftwich
a very decent 25-of-41 for 276 yds. Sure, this is a Cowboy/Giant sandwich for
the Bucs, but Bills are in off Monday Nighter with the Pats. Buffalo in its last 3
HGs: 3, 3, & 0 pts. Things simply don't appear any brighter. Bucs horrid 6-22
ATS on non-division rd, but Bills 0-4 ATS vs TBay, & guest 7-0 ATS in Bill tilts.

DENVER 20 - Cleveland 10 - (4:15) -- Battle of Belichick proteges: Mangini vs
McDaniels. Nice move by the suits, removing Shanahan from Bronc sideline.
His brilliant offensive mind had Denver ranked #2 on "O" LY, but without him
the Broncs managed just 10 FDs in miracle win at Cincinnati. That one moved
current Denver spread futility to 4-10 & 11-28 spread slides. But the Browns
aren't exactly money either, as their current 2-8 ATS run attests, & note 7.3 ppg
in last 7 outings, losing their last 2 non-division RGs by 28-9 & 30-10 counts.

Baltimore 23 - SAN DIEGO 20 - (4:15) -- Yes, we know that the Chargers have
a 109-45 pt edge in their last 3 HGs, & yes, we are aware of the fact that they
are 14-5 ATS as Sept HFs. But the Ravens have to be one of the true elites in
this league, as their current 16-4-1 spread run, & 15-6 SU streak suggest.
Check 32-11 FD, 198-29 RY, 501-188 TY advantages in their opening day win
over the Chiefs. Flacco & Rice: 3 TD passes, & 108 RYs, respectively. Ravens
are 10-3 ATS off a SU in, & came within a few plays of the Super Bowl in '08.

CHICAGO 20 - Pittsburgh 19 - (4:15) -- Of course, this all depends on the status
of Bear LB Urlacher, who was dinged in late loss to the Packers (50-yd TD
pass). Cutler certainly enjoyed an inauspicious opening with Chicago: 2 sacks
& 4 interceptions. But things can only improve. Ben a productive 33-of-43 for
363 yds in OT win over the Titans, but check a 198-29 RY deficit for Pitt, with
just 19 Parker RYs (1.5 ypr). Bears are 11-5 ATS as Sept HDs, & 19-7 when
hosting AFC squads. Steelers just 7-18 ATS as non-division RFs. Mild upset.

New York Giants 22 - DALLAS 20 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Early season NFC East
showdown, & it should be a dandy. First of 3 RGs for the Giants who are just
continuing along, with their current 19-5 spread log. In off workmanlike win
over the 'Skins, with 79-yd edge (Eli: 20-of-29). Romo tossed for career-best
353 yds in 'Boys' 34-21 win over Bucs, but Dallas ended up with just a 12-yd
edge, & an 8-FD deficit. NY is 16-6 ATS as a RD off a SU win & is 7-1 ATS off
playing Washington. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS as Sept chalks vs winning teams.

MONDAY
Indianapolis 23 - MIAMI 17 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Colts just continue along. Now 10
straight regular season wins, with Manning's 118 victories tying Johnny Unitas'
franchise record. Note 21-12 FD & 365-228 TY Indy domination in tight win vs
J'Ville. Dolphins opened in opposite fashion to '08 tendency, with a 4-0 TO
deficit, after leading the NFL with +17 TOs LY. Fish have topped 17 pts in only
3 of last 9 games, & are 8-21 ATS hosting non-division. Indy, on other hand, is
a 13-4 ATS Sept RF, as well as a 5-0 ATS Monday Nite chalk of at least 2 pts.

SPORTS MEMO

TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Texans +7
Houston +7 Tennessee
Tennessee 12 at Houston (+3) 13 - 2008 O/U 40.5 10 am PT
Last week the Titans played solid football in a 13-10 overtime loss at Pittsburgh. How-
ever there were some troubling signs on defense. While Tennessee sold out to stop the
run and succeeded in getting plenty of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, they allowed
76% completions and 363 yards of passing offense. This could be a trouble spot against a
Houston team that is typically adept through the air. Last week’s results are not necessar-
ily a guarantee of how teams will play this week. We certainly hope that is the case for the
Houston Texans as they were dominated at home by the NY Jets in a 24-7 loss. They were
outgained 462-183 and scored their only touchdown on a turnover. They netted only
11 first downs and quarterback Matt Schaub was just 18-of-33 for 166 yards. His quar-
terback rating was the fourth lowest in the league ahead of only JaMarcus Russell, Jay
Cutler and Matthew Stafford. However as is often the case in the NFL, we expect and proj-
ect a bounce back performance. After starting 0-4 a season ago and then fighting back
to get to 8-8, the Texans will have tremendous focus and a strong showing this week.
Take the big underdog Texans as they keep it close against a conservative game plan.

BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Washington +21
USC Washington +21
Washington 0 at USC (-45.5) 56 - 2008 O/U NL 12:30 pm PT (ABC)
Former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has done a terrific job at prepar-
ing Washington for the season and now gets to face his old boss and old play-
ers. Pete Carroll and company are coming off a huge win at Ohio State last week
and now face a tough scheduling spot of being asked to lay three touchdowns
on the road. Washington battled LSU tough in its opener, gaining 492 yards in a
loss and then piled up 42 points against Idaho last week. I really like what Sarki-
sian has done with Jake Locker and the offense even if his defense does lack size
and talent. The fact that they are balanced with both the pass and run makes this
team worth backing. One thing we can also bank on is that UW’s crowd will be
a factor as we saw in week one against LSU. Sarkisian’s familiarity with the USC
coaches and program should also help. He also took defensive coordinator Nick
Holt with him to Seattle. Two years ago, the top-ranked Trojans barely escaped
with a 27-24 win here as a 20-point favorite. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them
struggle once again. That the generous amount of points with the Huskies.

TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Texans +7
Houston +7 Tennessee
Tennessee 12 at Houston (+3) 13 - 2008 O/U 40.5 10 am PT
The Tennessee Titans began the 2008 season by reeling off ten consecutive victories. But Jeff
Fisher’s squad closed out the campaign losing four of their last seven. Two of their three late
season victories came against the Lions and Browns. This team dramatically overachieved
early, but during crunch time, showed their true colors. Tennessee did not move the football ef-
fectively during the preseason, nor did they demonstrate any sort of offensive prowess in their
opener at Pittsburgh last Thursday. Yet they still managed to cover the spread, despite giving
up a whopping 363 passing yards. That result creates two problems for Titans supporters this
week. First, they are a good notch or two overvalued, and secondly, their defense is most as-
suredly vulnerable to potent passing attacks like that of the Texans. Houston spent the whole
preseason talking about getting off to a good start, but they laid an egg in their opener against
the Jets. The Texans’ offense didn’t produce a single point, held to just eleven first downs and
183 total yards. Don’t expect another anemic performance here, in a maximum motivation
spot. Let’s not forget that the Titans have lost straight up as single-digit favorites in each of their
last four tries in this role, while the Texans are 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS in their last four tries as underdogs.

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Oregon State -1.5
Cincinnati Oregon State -1.5
Oregon State 3 at Cincinnati (+3) 34 - 2007 O/U NL 3:45 pm PT
No program has seen its stock rise in 2009 as much as the Bearcats. With just one starter
back on the defensive side of the ball, many projected Brian Kelly’s team to struggle as they
rebuilt. However that has not been the case as they started the campaign 2-0 and have
outscored the opposition 117-18. While the results are skewed as they played SE Missouri
State, we must note that included in the results was a Big East conference road win over
Rutgers. Because of these results, they are now inflated in the marketplace as the line comes
in as a virtual pick’em on the road in Corvallis. Oregon State is also 2-0, but the results have
not been as dominant. So while winning on the road against a pretty solid UNLV team is
worth noting, the overall numbers do not impress like Cincy’s. In our world, making huge
adjustments based on small samples is a recipe for failure. OSU has won 28 games the past
three seasons. They are 15-4 SU and 11-6 ATS at home during that time including wins over
USC (twice), California, Utah and Oregon. They are a good football program and simply put
this line is ridiculous. The late start Pacific Time start, the home field advantage, the stronger
conference affiliation, and the equally if not more talented team; all add up to a Beavers win.

ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Michigan State +11
Michigan State +11 Notre Dame
Notre Dame 7 at Mich. State (-8.5) 27 - 2008 O/U NL 12:30 pm PT (NBC)
The Spartans will travel to South Bend on Saturday as a double-digit underdog to face
the Irish. The pressure is mounting once again on Charlie Weis as the Irish dropped a
hard fought affair in Ann Arbor last week 38-34. While the Irish passing game with Jimmy
Clausen continues to impress, the defense raises questions. The performance from true
freshman Tate Forcier was brilliant but it was made easy by a Notre Dame defense that
is slow and often out of position. This week, ND faces one hungry underdog in Michi-
gan State. The Spartans were upset in a big way last week by Central Michigan on their
home turf, 29-27. State was essentially handed the win after CMU decided to go for two
and the win but failed. The Chippewas somehow recovered the onside kick and on its
second field goal try -- after a penalty -- came up aces. Fundamentally, Michigan State is
going to have a big edge defensively, led by all-world linebacker Greg Jones. And I feel
confident head coach Mark Dantonio will have his team focused for a rebound. Keep in
mind the Spartans were an eight-point favorite in this game last season, while holding
the Irish to under 260 yards. Look for the Spartans to keep this one close on Saturday.

ROB VENO
Best Bet: Titans -7
Houston Tennessee -7
Tennessee 12 at Houston (+3) 13 - 2008 O/U 40.5 10 am PT
This is as bad of a matchup as there could be for Houston in the immediate wake of
being manhandled by the Jets’ defense last week. Houston’s offensive line was beaten
in every phase of the game by Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine’s defense. After that, the
last thing Houston needs is yet another mismatch for their offensive line versus this
overpowering Tennessee group. The Titans’ run defense appeared in mid-season form
against the Steelers allowing just 36 yards and 1.6 per carry. They should be able to do
the same here against Houston RB Steve Slaton, which will take away any hope for bal-
ance from the Texans’ offense. Figure Tennessee HC Jeff Fisher to use the extra prepara-
tion time to shore up the pass defense which was gashed by Pittsburgh in week one.
Matt Schaub’s escape and impromptu skills are limited which will help the Titans here.
Offensively, Tennessee’s power ground attack should get back to form and open things
up for the downfield receiving trio of Justin Gage, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. The
mismatch in the trenches, the extra time to prepare, diverse offensive weaponry and a
season home opener all suggest Tennessee is likely to win this game by double digits.

FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: San Jose State +18
San Jose Sate +18 Stanford
San Jose 10 at Stanford (-6.5) 23 -2008 O/U NL 6 pm PT
Home opener for Stanford against nearby non-conference rival, but don’t expect this
contest to be as easy as the line suggests. Stanford traveled the opening two weeks to
Washington State and then an early East Coast start at Wake Forest where they were
beaten 24-17 in the final five seconds. The Cardinal blew a 17-3 halftime lead last week
and allowed the Deacons to post 458 yards including 251 yards at 5.6 ypr on the ground.
San Jose State has battled a tough early schedule with USC and Utah, two superior run
defense. However, the Spartans hung with the Utes late last week before falling 24-14; a
point spread cover and winner for our service play card. The Spartans have found some
playmakers in the passing game with quarterback Jordan La Secla now taking over
and wideouts Kevin Jurovich and Marquis Avery. That gives them some hope of fixing
an anemic offense, but regardless, they should fair well running the ball with balance
against Stanford. San Jose head coach Dick Tomey can clearly get the most of his play-
ers and I expect them to be prepared on defense. Situation, schedule and motivation
suggest the Spartans can stay competitive despite Stanford’s dominance in the series.

ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: UTEP -13.5
UTEP New Mexico State
NMSU (+7) 34 at UTEP 33 - 2008 O/U NL 5 pm PT
New Mexico State is a program in absolute flux. After a 3-9 campaign, Hal Mumme was sent
packing and former UCLA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker walked into a mess. In
week one, they were held to six points against an Idaho team that allowed over 40 ppg last
year. Last week’s 21-18 win over Prairie View A&M was likely their last taste of victory in what
expects to be a miserable 2009 campaign. Note the Aggies allowed 230 yards on the ground
and posted only 63 yards passing. But while we expected NMSU to be horrific, we felt the op-
posite heading into the season with UTEP. Four starters back on the offensive line, experienced
quarterback, seven starters back on defense – on paper things looked dandy. But after getting
upended at home in week one against Buffalo, the Miners showed little fight in a blowout loss
to Kansas in El Paso. With games against Texas and Houston looming, this would serve as not
only a must-win situation but an opportunity blowout an inferior opponent and gain some
confidence. Don’t forget to add a little bit of revenge after the Miners fell by one at home last
year. We saw it last year with multiple teams laying seemingly unwarranted amounts of chalk
to Washington State yet ATS wins were the norm. We’ll call for the same situation in Las Cruces.

HELMUT
Best Bet: Army -8
Ball State Army -8
None O/U NL 9 am PT
With the hiring of Rich Ellerson, Army is making a push to become a mid-level player
in the college football world. He wasn’t exactly the hottest coaching prospect but he
should’ve been after doing big things with Cal Poly. His Mustangs led the nation in a
multitude of offensive categories. As Navy and Air Force have shown, running the op-
tion is the best way to go when there’s a limited recruiting base. So far the Knight’s look
to have taken well to the triple option, as they gained 300 yards rushing on Eastern
Michigan and 266 against Duke. The Cardinals are hardly the same team they were last
year, especially on offense where the departure of quarterback Nate Davis and a slew
of playmakers as proved detrimental. Last season Ball State gained at least 350 total
yards in all 12 regular season games and this season they couldn’t reach that attainable
figure against North Texas and New Hampshire. They come into this game with the No.
105 ranked rush defense after allowing North Texas of all people to rush for 296 yards...
in Muncie! That does not bode well going against a team that has had success and is
gaining confidence with their ability to rush the football. Take the Cadets on Saturday.

MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Clemson -7
Boston College Clemson -7
Clemson (+2.5) 27 at BC 21 - 2008 O/U NL 9 am PT
Boston College is in for a world of hurt this weekend as they make the trip to Death
Valley. I, for one, am not impressed by their first two performances. Beating up on
Northeastern, who has gone 5-18 in the last two seasons competing in the FCS, and
Kent State, who won just four games a year ago and is dealing with having to replace
quarterback Julian Edelman, is nothing compared to Clemson. The Eagles stable of
three signal callers, none of whom have established himself as worthy of the job, has
exactly two games worth of experience and none of it has come on the highway.
Clemson is going to bring a ton of pressure with exotic looks to confuse these young
quarterbacks and I anticipate some turnovers to follow. While Clemson runs in their
own young quarterback, Kyle Parker has shown some real spark for making big plays
against two solid opponents. With big play guys like CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford at his
disposal Parker is in position to have a great night at home. Remember, Boston College
lost two NFL draft picks from their line and their top two playmakers at linebacker. With
extra time to prepare (Clemson played last Thursday night) the Tigers take the cash.

WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER

****BEST BET
New York Giants over *Dallas by 17
Dallas is sure to be fired-up hosting the Sunday night game in its fancy,
brand new obscenely priced stadium.It won’t matter,though,because the
Giants are much superior to the Cowboys.The Giants are tougher, more
physical,better coached and have huge edges on the offensive and defen-
sive lines.Since losing at Dallas during the opening game of the 2007 sea-
son,the Giants have covered 17 of their last 19 road contests.The Giants
play better when they have an underdog mentality.New York has covered
four of the past six times it has played in Dallas.There’s a class difference
between these two clubs right now that isn’t obvious because the
Cowboys are such a public team.The Giants not only have the best offen-
sive line in football,but their defensive line could return to its glory of two
years ago with the return to health of star pass rusher Osi Umenyiora.He
and Justin Tuck are a devastating tandem that will wreak havoc on the
Dallas’overmatched offensive line and immobile quarterback Tony Romo.
The Cowboys always have had marquee stars on offense.That’s not the
case this season.They certainly have good players,but no superstars with
Terrell Owens departing. Opponents respect, but certainly do not fear
Dallas’wideouts.No team runs the ball better than the Giants with Brandon
Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw behind a massive offensive line.Tampa Bay
rushed for 174 yards on 31 carries last Sunday against Dallas, a 5.6 yard
average per run.The Giants will be able to exploit Dallas’soft middle set-
ting up Eli Manning to effectively pass downfield via play-action.The Giants
were blindsided last year by Plaxico Burress’legal problems.That derailed
their season.They’re over that now, which makes them very dangerous.
They’re beneath the radar screen making them an extremely strong play at
a bargain price tag.NY GIANTS 30-13.

***BEST BET
*Jacksonville over Arizona by 18
Lost in the Cardinals’glorious playoff run last season to the Super Bowl is
the simple fact that the Cardinals are not a very good road club.They have
lost 15 straight regular-season road games to teams with a winning record.
The Cardinals can’t win on the road because they aren’t physical enough
and mentally tough enough.They’ve been especially terrible when travel-
ing three times zone from their normal level.Last year,the Cardinals went
0-5 during the regular-season in Eastern Standard Time Zone games,being
outscored by 100 points in those matchups. The Jaguars are a tough
matchup for Arizona. Not only is Jacksonville three time zones away, but
this is an early start time for the Cardinals.Jacksonville has been one of the
most physical and rugged teams under their no-nonsense coach Jack Del
Rio.That’s the Jaguars’style again this season with a rebuilt offensive line,
hard-hitting defense and one of the top running backs in the NFL,Maurice
Jones-Drew.Even quarterback David Garrard is physical being one of the
better running quarterback.The Cardinals definitely have shown improve-
ment under Ken Whisenhunt.They have a tough home mentality.But they
still are vulnerable on the road and have yet to establish any type of ground
attack.This puts too much pressure on ancient and injury prone quarter-
back Kurt Warner.He looked ragged during preseason and was unimpres-
sive in the season-opener against the 49ers with a 67.2 quarterback rating
and two interceptions.The Cardinals had trouble protecting Warner and
that was at home against a mediocre 49ers pass rush.Warner also may not
have his No.3 wide receiver,Steve Breaston.He missed last Sunday with a
knee injury.Anquan Boldin,the Cardinals’second-best wideout,is nursing a
hamstring injury.He only had two receptions for 19 yards against the 49ers.
JACKSONVILLE 30-12.

**PREFERRED

*Tennessee over Houston by 15
There were red flags galore in preseason for the Texans.Their defense was-
n’t coming together and their offense averaged 17 points. Those concerns
surfaced again this past Sunday as the Texans managed just 183 yards and
seven points at home against a Jets defense missing two defensive starters.
Matt Schaub was limited during preseason because of an ankle injury.The
Texans’ground game failed to step up,averaging just 2.9 yards per rush ver-
sus the Jets.The Texans may be without their No.2 wideout Kevin Walter,
who missed last week with a hamstring injury.Defensively the Texans made
Mark Sanchez,playing in his first NFL game,look like an All-Pro.The physi-
cal Titans should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Veteran Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins can take advantage of
Houston’s defensive youth and weak secondary. The Titans have extra
preparation time since they opened the season last Thursday falling to
Pittsburgh in overtime.The Titans have defeated Houston in seven of the
past eight meetings, going 5-2-1 ATS.The Texans historically struggle in
September under Gary Kubiak.They have lost nine of their last 11 games
this month,including the past six in September.TENNESSEE 28-13.

*Detroit over Minnesota by 1
The Lions would like nothing better than to end their 18-game losing streak
then beat the Vikings at home during the debut of new coach Jim
Schwartz. Even though the Lions have lost 13 of their last 14 games to
Minnesota, Detroit usually matches up well to the Vikings being a dome
team and in the same division. The Vikings beat the Lions last year by two
points at home and by four points at Detroit.The Lions have improved
since then upgrading their talent base through a good draft and forming a
new attitude under Schwartz.Schwartz made a strong decision in naming
rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford his starter.Stafford has accuracy and
decision-making issues, but he does possess a strong arm and can take
advantage of a vulnerable Minnesota secondary with long passes to Calvin
Johnson.The Vikings are breaking in two new starters on their offensive
line.This is just their second game with Brett Favre behind center.It was
obvious in the Vikings’opener that Favre is not in sync yet with his new
wide receivers.The Lions’pass rush is much more effective and dangerous
when playing on carpet.Detroit has covered its last four NFC North games.
DETROIT 24-23.

*CLOSE CALLS

*Kansas City over Oakland by 1
A short week to prepare and an early start time are not good situational
elements for Oakland.The Raiders have a history of playing their old rival
tough at Arrowhead Stadium,though,going 5-1-1 ATS the past seven years.
Richard Seymour could shore up the Raiders’soft run defense.Until Matt
Cassel (check status) gets comfortable in his new surrounding,which isn’t
necessarily a given,the Chiefs could hang their small hat size on the run-
ning of Larry Johnson.As bad as Oakland is,the Chiefs are 2-24 SU in their
last 26 games and have failed to cover in 10 of their past 13 home contests.
KANSAS CITY 21-20.

New England over *New York Jets by 10
Rex Ryan’s line about not coming to New York to kiss any of Bill Belichick’s
rings may haunt him.Belichick has the offense to run up a score.He also
has the brainpower on defense to take advantage of any mistakes commit-
ted by rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.Right now Belichick versus the
vulnerable Sanchez is a mismatch.The Patriots have covered the past eight
times they’ve been a division road favorite of four or more points. New
England has defeated the Jets in 11 of the last 13 meetings.Another dis-
turbing trend for the Jets is the host team in this series has failed to cover
the past seven times.NEW ENGLAND 27-17.

*Green Bay over Cincinnati by 5
So far so good in 2009, with the hometown Packers’ switch to a 3-4
defense.The Bengals are quite familiar with a 3-4 going against this align-
ment playing in the AFC North.The Bengals’defense is underrated with a
deep linebacking group,while their offense can be respectable again with
Carson Palmer back behind center and Chad Ochocinco primed for a big
comeback year.The Packers are off a huge division rivalry matchup against
the Bears,but the Bengals host Pittsburgh next week.Green Bay finished
last season covering only two of its last seven games at Lambeau Field.
GREEN BAY 24-19.

*New Orleans over Philadelphia by 1
Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the NFC.It’s only the second game
but already the Saints’ offense appears in mid-season form. However, do
keep in mind the setting here is much different for Brees.This isn’t a home
dome game against a weak defense.The Eagles no longer have ace defen-
sive coordinator Jim Johnson, but remain respectable with the talent to
blitz from all angles.The Saints are without their top pass blocker,left tack-
le Jammal Brown (hernia).The key for the Eagles is how well backup quar-
terback Kevin Kolb responds if Donovan McNabb (check status) can’t play
because of a cracked rib.NEW ORLEANS 30-29.

*Atlanta over Carolina by 7
Jake Delhomme turning the ball over 11 times in his last two games is
cause for concern in Carolina,especially with the Panthers losing backup
quarterback Josh McCown.The Panthers are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last
four games on artificial turf.They have won,though,in three of their last
four visits to the Georgia Dome.Carolina also has covered 64 percent of the
time (34-19-1) as an underdog under John Fox.Atlanta had five starters
from last year’s playoff defense depart.The Falcons didn’t miss a beat last
week holding the Dolphins to seven points,while forcing four turnovers.
ATLANTA 24-17.

*Washington over St. Louis by 11
It’s dangerous to lay a lot of points with a bad offense as evidenced by the
Redskins losing 19-17 to the Rams last year as 12-point favorites.New St.
Louis coach Steve Spagnuolo knows Washington well having come from
New York where he was the well-respected defensive coordinator of the
Giants.However,there are several problems with trying to make the Rams
work. Spagnuolo inherits the weakest talent base in the league. St. Louis
could only manage 247 yards of offense in Week 1 and committed 10 penal-
ties.The Rams are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games in September.This also
is an off-surface for them.WASHINGTON 24-13.

*San Francisco over Seattle by 3
Mike Singletary has San Francisco moving in the right direction.The 49ers
have won six of their last eight regular-season games.They’ve become far
more respectable on defense.Discipline has tightened up under the fiery
Singletary.Seattle is a different team,too,with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck.
John Carlson is emerging into one of the best tight ends in the NFC.The
Seahawks, however, are far less intimidating away from Qwest Field, the
loudest outdoor stadium in the NFC. The Seahawks already have key
injuries with left tackle Walter Jones,center Chris Spencer and cornerback
Marcus Trufant missing the opener.SAN FRANCISCO 15-12.

*Buffalo over Tampa Bay by 6
Buffalo has lost and failed to cover in its last four home contests.Plus the
Bills are on a short week having played Monday on the road against divi-
sion rival New England. It’s hard to get behind the Buccaneers, though.
First-year coach Rasheed Morris probably is in for a long rebuilding year.
This is Tampa Bay’s only game against a team outside the NFC East in the
first five weeks. So it’s definitely a rare winnable road game. But the
Buccaneers haven’t traveled well even when Jon Gruden was coach having
lost 18 of their past 25 road contests.They also are a grass team playing on
artificial turf.BUFFALO 23-17.

*Denver over Cleveland by 2
Don’t expect a shootout like these teams had last year when the Broncos
prevailed, 34-30, on the road, while racking up 564 yards. Brady Quinn
made his starting debut and was 23-for-35 for 239 yards and two touch-
downs in that matchup. Quinn started the opener this year, but wasn’t
impressive in a loss to the Vikings.Neither was Denver’s Kyle Orton.The
Broncos had just 215 total yards on offense against the Bengals last week
until Brandon Stokley caught a tipped pass for an 87-yard touchdown with
11 seconds left.Denver is 8-0 lifetime versus Cleveland.DENVER 16-14.

*San Diego over Baltimore by 1
The Ravens could be flying under the radar screen in the early going.Not
only is their defense still very good,but it’s very deep,too among the line-
men and linebackers.Joe Flacco looks improved,allowing John Harbaugh
to open the offense more. Defenses have to respect Flacco’s play-action
passes with the emergence of running back Ray Rice to go with Willis
McGahee.The Ravens covered eight of the 12 times they were underdogs
last year under Harbaugh.San Diego is on a short week having played at
Oakland on Monday.Much of San Diego’s defensive success depends on the
return to health of pass rushing star Shawnee Merriman.SAN DIEGO 20-19.

*Chicago over Pittsburgh by 1
Even with extra rest,the Steelers are a dangerous team to back going into
Chicago.The Steelers have yet to find their ground game,once a staple of
their offense.Tailback Willie Parker seems to have lost his burst.Pittsburgh’s
offensive line has problems protecting Ben Roethlisberger,who was sacked
four times in Week 1.Those problems are compounded if opponents disre-
gard Pittsburgh’s ground game.The Steelers also will be missing injured star
safety Troy Polamalu and could be without linebacker Lawrence Timmons
a second straight game.Pittsburgh has failed to cover in 14 of its last 21
games versus NFC North foes.CHICAGO 21-20.

Indianapolis over *Miami by 2 (Monday)
The Dolphins are sure to be pumped for a Monday night home game.
However,Miami has lost and failed to cover in its first home game each of
the past three years.The Colts catch a break in that the usually brutal South
Florida humidity this time of year shouldn’t be so bad at night. The
Dolphins will attack with runs and short passes the soft underbelly of the
Colts defense,which still could be missing star safety Bob Sanders (check
status). Indy’s defense loses a lot without Sanders. In the end though,
Peyton Manning probably finds a way to pull the victory out.INDIANAPO-
LIS 23-21.

OVER/UNDER

**UNDER:Seattle at San Francisco– The Seahawks are missing two
key offensive linemen,while the 49ers have a limited passing attack.
UNDER: Cleveland at Denver– Until these teams show better quar-
terback play and a semblance of a ground attack,under is the way to look.

OVER: New Orleans at Philadelphia– The Saints are 16-5-1 to the
over,while the Eagles have the big-play weapons to put up points no mat-
ter who is behind center.

WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER

MLB

DAILY BASEBALL SELECTIONS
With rosters having expanded on September 1, teams not in con-
tention can be expected to experiment with rookies. Accordingly,
we will focus our attention on selected series involving at least one
contending team.

BEGINNING FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 18

Colorado at Arizona (3) 18th, 19, 20th
The Diamondbacks are going out with a whimper (2-8, -$580 last 10
days) and will be hard pressed to slow down the playoff hungr y
Rockies (9-2, +$550 in their last 11). They’ve lost a fortune here at
Chase Field (-$1520) and their rotation is loaded with righthanders.
Colorado checks in with a 30-21 record on the road vs. righties
(+$1405) and they’ve already beaten this team in 9 of their 15 head
to head meetings (+$215). BEST BET: Rockies vs. righthanders.

San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (3) 18th, 19, 20th
The Giants are coming off a bad week that took place at the worst
conceivable time. They’ve fallen well off the pace in the NL Wildcard
chase, and now they head out on the road, where they have f loun-
dered through most of 2009 (-$630). LA can finish off their division
rival once and for all, while making sure they retain the top slot in the
NL West as post-season draws near. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.

Boston at Baltimore (3) 18th, 19, 20th
The Orioles may have won a couple of games in the Bronx last week-
end, but they are enduring another disastrous 2nd half, and we can’t
see them doing better than a single victor y against a Boston team
they have already lost to in 13 of their 15 meetings (-$1020).The Red
Sox have lost money on the road vs. righties however, so we’ll limit
ourselves to games in which the home team starts a southpaw.
Boston averages a healthy 5.4 runs per game, and the O’s check in
with the AL’s worst ERA (5.06). BEST BET: Red Sox vs. lefthanders.

L.A. Angels at Texas (3) 18th, 19, 20th
The Rangers are ver y close to a playoff spot, and may benefit from
some soft opponents when this series is over. They need to get past
the surging Angels (7-3, +$325 last 10 days), but don’t count them
out. They’ve been ver y effective vs. LA in head to head play (9-3,
+$755) and are a spectacular 21-8 vs. lefthanders here at Arlington
(+$1145). They’ll get a shot at newly acquired Scott Kazmir, who has
looked sharp since being traded to this team, but whose overall num-
bers are still ver y shaky. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Kazmir.

Detroit at Minnesota (3) 18th, 19, 20th
This is it for the hometown Twins, who cannot afford anything less
than a sweep if they hope to mount a late surge and overtake the
Tigers in the AL Central. They’ve made money vs. Detroit in earlier
meetings (7-4, +$295) so it’s certainly not out of the question, espe-
cially when you consider the visitor’s lousy road record vs.
righthanders (21, 29, -$845). We should get at least a couple of oppor-
tunities to get on board with the Twins, who should go off at reason-
able prices. BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.

BEGINNING MONDAY SEPTEMBER 21

Boston at Kansas City (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Just what the Red Sox need; a four game set with the AL’s least effec-
tive team (-$2460 overall) in the heat of a huge pennant race. Avoid
Zack Greinke (2.19 ERA in 29 starts), but the rest of the KC rotation
is fair game. PREFERRED: Red Sox unless opposed by Greinke.

N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Yanks can’t be feeling too good about this late west coast swing,
where they must take on a team that always gives them trouble (only
2-4, -$430 vs. LA in ‘09).The Angels are the most profitable team in the
AL at the moment (+$2295) and have a shot to secure home field
advantage is all goes well. PREFERRED: Angels in all games.

Texas at Oakland (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Athletics have split their first 12 meetings with Texas and they
have a couple of lefties in their rotation who could be live underdogs
here at McAfee Coliseum. The Rangers have lost money on the road
vs. southpaws (-$655) and will be under enormous pressure, as the
last days of the 2009 campaign whither away. PREFERRED:
Lefthanders vs. the Rangers.

BEGINNING TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 22

L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Dodgers are the best team in the NL Statistically (3.46 ERA, .273
team BA) and we don’t see them opening the door for Colorado vs.
the worst team in baseball. The Nationals have lost a fortune so far in
2009 (-$2970) and should be ripe for the taking. But steer clear if the
prices climb over 2 to 1, especially if LA’s grip in the NL West is
secure. PREFERRED: Dodgers at -190 or less.