SPORTSMEMO
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: San Jose State +18
Home opener for Stanford against nearby non-conference rival, but don’t expect this contest to be as easy as the line suggests. Stanford traveled the opening two weeks to Washington State and then an early East Coast start at Wake Forest where they were beaten 24-17 in the final five seconds. The Cardinal blew a 17-3 halftime lead last week and allowed the Deacons to post 458 yards including 251 yards at 5.6 ypr on the ground. San Jose State has battled a tough early schedule with USC and Utah, two superior run defense. However, the Spartans hung with the Utes late last week before falling 24-14; a point spread cover and winner for our service play card. The Spartans have found some playmakers in the passing game with quarterback Jordan La Secla now taking over and wideouts Kevin Jurovich and Marquis Avery. That gives them some hope of fixing an anemic offense, but regardless, they should fair well running the ball with balance against Stanford. San Jose head coach Dick Tomey can clearly get the most of his players and I expect them to be prepared on defense. Situation, schedule and motivation suggest the Spartans can stay competitive despite Stanford’s dominance in the series.
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: UTEP -13.5
New Mexico State is a program in absolute flux. After a 3-9 campaign, Hal Mumme was sent packing and former UCLA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker walked into a mess. In week one, they were held to six points against an Idaho team that allowed over 40 ppg last year. Last week’s 21-18 win over Prairie View A&M was likely their last taste of victory in what expects to be a miserable 2009 campaign. Note the Aggies allowed 230 yards on the ground and posted only 63 yards passing. But while we expected NMSU to be horrific, we felt the opposite heading into the season with UTEP. Four starters back on the offensive line, experienced quarterback, seven starters back on defense – on paper things looked dandy. But after getting upended at home in week one against Buffalo, the Miners showed little fight in a blowout loss to Kansas in El Paso. With games against Texas and Houston looming, this would serve as not only a must-win situation but an opportunity blowout an inferior opponent and gain some confidence. Don’t forget to add a little bit of revenge after the Miners fell by one at home last year. We saw it last year with multiple teams laying seemingly unwarranted amounts of chalk to Washington State yet ATS wins were the norm. We’ll call for the same situation in Las Cruces.
HELMUT
Best Bet: Army -8
With the hiring of Rich Ellerson, Army is making a push to become a mid-level player in the college football world. He wasn’t exactly the hottest coaching prospect but he should’ve been after doing big things with Cal Poly. His Mustangs led the nation in a multitude of offensive categories. As Navy and Air Force have shown, running the option is the best way to go when there’s a limited recruiting base. So far the Knight’s look to have taken well to the triple option, as they gained 300 yards rushing on Eastern Michigan and 266 against Duke. The Cardinals are hardly the same team they were last year, especially on offense where the departure of quarterback Nate Davis and a slew of playmakers as proved detrimental. Last season Ball State gained at least 350 total yards in all 12 regular season games and this season they couldn’t reach that attainable figure against North Texas and New Hampshire. They come into this game with the No. 105 ranked rush defense after allowing North Texas of all people to rush for 296 yards...in Muncie! That does not bode well going against a team that has had success and is gaining confidence with their ability to rush the football. Take the Cadets on Saturday.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Clemson -7
Boston College is in for a world of hurt this weekend as they make the trip to Death Valley. I, for one, am not impressed by their first two performances. Beating up on Northeastern, who has gone 5-18 in the last two seasons competing in the FCS, and Kent State, who won just four games a year ago and is dealing with having to replace quarterback Julian Edelman, is nothing compared to Clemson. The Eagles stable of three signal callers, none of whom have established himself as worthy of the job, has exactly two games worth of experience and none of it has come on the highway.Clemson is going to bring a ton of pressure with exotic looks to confuse these young quarterbacks and I anticipate some turnovers to follow. While Clemson runs in their own young quarterback, Kyle Parker has shown some real spark for making big plays against two solid opponents. With big play guys like CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford at his disposal Parker is in position to have a great night at home. Remember, Boston College lost two NFL draft picks from their line and their top two playmakers at linebacker. With extra time to prepare (Clemson played last Thursday night) the Tigers take the cash.
No Winning Points college picks?
The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAAF RELEASES
OKLAHOMA STATE
We know that Oklahoma State isn’t a happy bunch after losing to
heavy underdog Houston last week at Boone Pickens Stadium. We
also know that the Cougars are a dangerous team, something we
can’t say about this week’s visitor to Stillwater, the Rice Owls.
Indeed, the Owls have slipped from last year’s bowl season, blown
out while failing to cover their first two games vs. UAB and Texas
Tech while recording a poor “AFS” (Away From Spread) number of
-15.50, one of the worst 2-game marks in the nation. And we also
know the Cowboys can be quite a bully under HC Mike Gundy,
covering 12 of their last 14 as double-digit chalk, including 8 of their
last 9 in that role at home. Rice has also fallen to 2-5 vs. the line its
last 7 as a road dog after its opening defeats.
KENTUCKY
There’s been a not-so-subtle shift in the Bluegrass State “hate
series” between Louisville and Kentucky the past two years. After
watching the Cards mostly dominate action for much of the decade,
the Wildcats have bossed the last two meetings with wins and
covers, and will be looking for more of the same Saturday at
Commonwealth Stadium. Kentucky has also been trustworthy at
Lexington of late vs. non-SEC foes, covering 4 of its last 5
opportunities. Meanwhile, Louisville has mostly struggled vs. the line
since HC Steve Kragthorpe arrived in ‘07, covering only 8 of 22
chances on the board.
AIR FORCE
Series trends and recent performances present a very strong case
for Air Force when the hungry Falcons invade Albuquerque for a
Saturday Mountain West battle against New Mexico. It’s been all Air
Force in recent meetings, as the Falcs have covered five straight vs.
the Lobos. The Force is also a notable 16-9 vs. the line since HC
Troy Calhoun arrived in ‘07, and Calhoun has proven particularly
reliable as a favorite, covering in 9 of 11 chances. As for New
Mexico, the faltering Lobos have looked bad while losing and failing
to cover their first two, posting a woeful “AFS” (Away From Spread)
number of -18.50 in those lopsided defeats. And the New Mexico
pointspread lsoing streak is now at 4 games, reaching back into late
last season.
HAWAII
We’re picking our spots carefully with hometown UNLV, which, as
we expected provided good value last week vs. favorred Oregon
State. But we’re not about to trust the Rebels as a favrotie when they
host explosive Hawaii Saturday night at Sam Boyd Stadium. The
reason? Consider the Rebs’ subpar 2-6 chalk amrk in rare favorite
roles since HC Mike Sanford arrived in 2005. Indeed, the underdog
team is 16-7 vs. the line in UNLV home games in the Sanford era. In
this uncomforable chalk role, the Rebs are also a go-against play in
the Impotent Favorites system this week.
THE GOLD SHEET
CFB
KEY RELEASES
INDIANA by 10 over Akron
AUBURN by 17 over West Virginia
SMU by 18 over Washington State
BUFFALO by 7 over Ucf
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
ARMY 28 - Ball State 15—Ball State had just 9 FDs and yielded 5 sacks,
while star RB Lewis had just 21 YR in New Hampshire loss due in large part to
inexperience in OL (just 1 returning starter, 5 RS frosh in 2-deep) and loss of
5th-yr. sr. TE Grant (DNP vs. NH due to ACL inj.; out for season). Army
defensive front has allowed just 1.8 ypc in first two games, while option attack
has generated 5.3 ypc. Card d.c. Graber’s new 4-3 defense still needs work,
and Black Knights’ clicking rush game tough to prepare for.
(DNP...SR: Army 1-0)
PURDUE 31 - Northern Illinois 26—Purdue has covered first two games
under new HC Hope behind soph RB Bolden’s 7.1 ypc despite QB Elliott’s 5
ints. and a “D” yielding 35 ppg. Bolden leads the country in rushing, and NIU’s
DL could be a soft target even though Huskie HC Kill says that unit could be
improved despite graduation losses. MAC is 13-5 vs. the number last 1+
seasons against the Big Ten, and NIU has been a solid road dog. Will Boilers
look ahead to high-profile game against Notre Dame next Saturday?
(FIRST MEETING)
MICHIGAN 45 - Eastern Michigan 16—Victory over ND and 2-0 start will
serve to jack up the spread on Michigan this week...but also boost the morale
of faster 2009 attack. QB Forcier and speedy Wolverine offense will do some
damage facing EMU defensive front that doesn’t look any better than last year’s
crew that gave up 5.4 ypc. However, Eagle QB Schmitt has visited the “Big
House” before and survived, doing more than enough to get the cover as a 29-
pt. dog in 11-point loss in 2007.
(07-MICHIGAN -29 33-22...SR: Michigan 8-0)
*PITTSBURGH 29 - Navy 27—True frosh Panther RB Lewis (375 total yards,
5 TDs in first two games) one of nation’s top newcomers. But we’ll bet against
maligned sr. QB Stull (3 first-half TDP at Buffalo) channeling former Panther
great Dan Marino for a second straight week. Navy (31-16 as dog since ‘99)
continues to be righteous pointspread performer under 2nd-year HC
Niumatalolo, who’s covered 8 of last 12.
(08-Pitt 42-NAVY 21...P.22-12 P.42/244 N.47/194 P.15/23/2/255 N.4/8/1/57 P.1 N.1)
(08-Pittsburgh -3 42-21 07-Navy +4 48-45 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 21-13-3)
*Northwestern 22 - SYRACUSE 21—Big 10 scouts caution not to read too
much into Northwestern’s close win vs. EMU last week, saying Wildcats
simply got complacent after jumping out to early 21-0 lead on lightly-
regarded Eagles. And NU’s offense is much further advanced than
restructured Syracuse attack. Still, re-energized Orange defense showing
considerable moxie under new HC Marrone.
(08-NORTH. 30-Syr. 10...N.25-11 N.42/269 S.30/122 N.23/35/1/215 S.14/28/1/103 N.1 S.0)
(08-NORTHWESTERN -12 30-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)
CLEMSON 28 - Boston College 15—New BC QBs Tuggle & Shinskie and
retooling Eagle defense stepping waaaaaaaay up in class after clobbering
outmanned Northeastern & Kent State in first two weeks. Lean to laying fair
price with host Clemson, which owns a mingy stop unit, plus the top big-play
threats on field in blazing seniors RB Spiller & WR Ford.
(08-Clem. 27-BOS. COL. 21...C.16-11 B.30/120 C.31/87 C.21/33/3/252 B.18/39/0/116 C.1 B.2)
(08-Clemson +3' 27-21 07-Tech +8' 20-17 06-TECH +2 34-33 (OT)...SR: EVEN 8-8-2)
PENN STATE 40 - Temple 6—Paterno and Penn State have disappointed
chalk bettors twice this season, but it’s hard to see how Temple has made up
enough ground to compete with Nittany Lions. Owls have been outscored 123-
3 last 3 in series, all of which were covered by Penn State laying hefty spreads.
Temple committed 5 turnovers in blowing a 10-point, 4th-Q lead at home
against Villanova, and if that’s a true indication of the Owls’ progress, this game
will be another Penn State rout.
(08-PENN ST. 45-Temple 3...P.27-10 P.45/303 T.28/16 P.18/31/1/243 T.17/32/3/122 P.1 T.0)
(08-PSU -28' 45-3 07-Psu -25' 31-0 06-PSU -36' 47-0...SR: Penn St. 34-3-1)
NORTH CAROLINA 19 - East Carolina 17—True, Tar Heels own most
dominant platoon in this matchup, as their smothering defense is stocked fore
and aft with athletic playmakers. With UNC QB Yates still developing good
rapport with his rebuilt WR corps, however, points should work with plucky
Pirates (15-5 last 20 as road dog) IF vet ECU QB Pinkney (just 42% so far in
2009) snaps out of early-season funk. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-EAST CAROLINA -5' 34-31...SR: North Carolina 8-2-1)
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Miami-Ohio 10—Can’t be enamored with laying
double digits with WMU side that’s 109th offensively in 0-2 start, but the next
point Miami scores will be its first of ‘09. It appears RedHawks haven’t
absorbed new HC Haywood’s pro-style offense, and are on a 4-13 spread run
since late in ‘07. Broncos return home after taking some lumps in Ann Arbor
and a disappointing loss at Indiana last week, and QB Hiller can get WMU back
on track in MAC opener.
(06-WMU -12’ 27-24...SR: Miami-Ohio 37-17-1)
*VANDERBILT 19 - Mississippi State 14—Since MSU‘s capable,
alternating QBs T. Lee & Relf making strides in HC Mullen’s spread attack,
prefer to take TD+ vs. Vandy squad still lacking much offensive punch—‘Dores
have generated 16 pts. or fewer in 9 of past 10 games vs. FBS squads. Bulldogs
slimmed-down & quicker sr. RB Dixon (92 YR, 4.5 ypc vs. Auburn) is the premier
ball-carrier on gridiron. And proud, athletic MSU defense bounces back after
allowing an aberrational 390 YR in 49-24 loss at Auburn (most pts. allowed
since 2004!).
(08-MISS. ST. 17-Vandy 14...M.16-7 M.50/166 V.26/45 M.12/22/0/81 V.8/20/2/62 M.0 V.0)
(08-MSU +2 17-14...SR: Mississippi State 11-7-2)
COLORADO 28 - Wyoming 17—Colorado mostly embarrassed its first two
starts, trailing Colorado State & Toledo by a combined 43-6 at the half.
However, Buffaloes get a chance to redeem themselves at home against a
Wyoming team still adjusting under former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave
Christensen. Cowboys making some progress, judging by stubborn
performance last week vs. visiting Texas, but that narrow cover “boosted”
Wyo’s pointspread mark to 5-20-1 its last 26.
(DNP...SR: Colorado 23-2-1)
IOWA 22 - Arizona 20—Lopsided victory at Iowa St. indicates that reports of
Iowa’s demise perhaps a bit premature. But if that romp past Cyclones inflates
price, edge shifts to underrated Arizona bunch that usually provides good value
as dog (14-8 last 22 in role). Experience edge at QB goes to Hawkeye sr.
Stanzi, but Pac-10 sources raving about speed (especially a very active LB
crew) on Cat stop unit, and new UA QB Scott proving a quick study in o.c. Sonny
Dykes’ spread. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Arizona 6-5)
Indiana 26 - AKRON 16—Indiana’s move to the “Pistol” offense to try
to breath life into the Hoosier rush game is yielding positive results, as RB
McCray is coming off a 134-yard effort against WMU last week, by far the most
productive game in his career. Indiana QB Chappell has completed 70% of his
throws in engineering a 2-0 start for HC Bill Lynch. Akron is among the MAC
teams that’ve given the Big Ten a little trouble vs. the spread, but Zips have
dropped their last 16 against that league, all by double digits. TV—ESPNU
(07-INDIANA -13' 41-24...SR: Indiana 1-0)
KANSAS 42 - Duke 14—Blue Devils’ victory over Army last week a lot closer
than final score, as sr. CB Wright tallied two TDs on interception returns late in
4th Q at West Point. Meticulous HC Mangino’s Jayhawks (21-5 last 26 as
chalk!) almost always handle their business when they hold an advantage, and
KU enjoys definitive edges all over field in matchup against youthful Duke.
(FIRST MEETING)
SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Virginia 17—Embattled Virginia HC Groh’s switch to
spread attack an abject disaster so far. Cavs mustered just 268 yards in
opening double-digit home loss to William & Mary, then gained nearly half of
last week’s paltry 177-yard total against TCU on a couple of TD passes after
Frogs led 30-0 late in fourth quarter. Huge edge to Eagles’ effective triumvirate
of QB A. Davis, RB Fletcher & WR D. Brown. (FIRST MEETING)
Utah 29 - OREGON 27—Maybe it’s too early to hit the panic button, but UO’s
early struggles (offense inept at Boise, LeGarette Blount’s antics, defense
springing leaks vs. Purdue) indicate it’s not quite business as usual in Eugene
as adjustment phase to new HC Kelly continues. Utah still making its own
adjustments, but juco QB Cain getting more comfy at controls, and Utes have
long relished this profitable road dog role (18-5 last 23). Not sure Utah’s 16-
game win streak about to end just yet. TV-ESPN
(DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)
Southern Cal 31 - WASHINGTON 17—Before nominating Matt Barkley for
the Hall of Fame, we thought it was more illuminating how SC’s veneer of
invincibility was sheared a bit in that narrow escape at Ohio State. And though
U-Dub (now shed of its 15-game losing streak) might not have Buckeye-like
manpower to slug away vs. Troy, new Husky HC Sarkisian (former SC o.c)
could know the Trojan offense better than Pete Carroll, and will make sure to
keep better watch on Joe McKnight than Jim Tressel did in late going at the
Horseshoe. A now-healthy Jake Locker should allow UW to sustain drives, and
note how Locker and Huskies put a big-time scare into SC in ’07. TV—ABC
(08-S. CAL 56-Wash. 0...S.25-15 S.46/297 W.30/71 S.16/20/0/188 W.14/33/3/113 S.0 W.0)
(08-USC -45 56-0 07-Usc -20' 27-24 06-USC -19 26-20...SR: Southern Cal 49-26-4)
*UCLA 24 - Kansas State 10—Inevitable pointspread reaction to last week’s
disparate results aside, still not sure we’re ready to dismiss KSU’s early
misfirings that might have Bill Snyder wondering why he came out of retirement.
Wildcat “O” still in post-Josh Freeman transition, as new pilot Coffman (barely
50% completions) learning on the job. UCLA will have to endure with LY’s error-
prone QB Craft for a spell while RS frosh Prince recovers from broken jaw, but
if playmaking Bruin “D” can flummox Tennessee, it can do the same vs. KSU.
(FIRST MEETING)
VIRGINIA TECH 20 - Nebraska 19—Sure, taking on swarming Hokie
defense at hostile Blacksburg a tad tougher assignment for new Husker QB Lee
than pair of Sun Belt foes he faced at Lincoln in first two games. But
rejuvenated Nebraska stop unit also bears little resemblance to the Marshall
platoon that Tech trampled for 444 YR last week. Fiery HC Pelini will have his
revenge-minded Huskers ready to wage 60-minute battle and fully test QB T.
Taylor’s development as a passer. TV—ABC
(08-Va. Tech 35-NEB. 30...V.21-14 V.55/206 N.25/55 N.17/26/1/278 V.9/15/0/171 V.0 N.1)
(08-Virginia Tech +7 35-30...SR: EVEN 1-1)
NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 28—While HC Weis appears to have the
ND offense (35 ppg; 500 ypg) and QB Clausen (7 TDPs, 0 ints.) on track, the
Irish defense showed it has issues defending speed. Young MSU RBs Ray,
Caper and Baker are homerun threats, and soph QB Cousins (0 ints.) has a pair
of explosive targets in WRs Cunningham and White (caught 2 TDs each from
Cousins in first 2 games). Spartans have won and covered last 6 in South Bend.
Need a little more evidence that Irish have pulled out of 11-18 SU run over last
2+ seasons. REGIONAL TV—NBC
(08-MICH. ST. 23-N. Dame 7...N.18-16 M.43/203 N.22/16 N.24/41/2/242 M.12/26/0/143 M.1 N.1)
(08-MSU -9 23-7 07-Msu -10' 31-14 06-Und -3 40-37...SR: Notre Dame 44-27-1)
Ohio State 42 - Toledo 16—Kudos to Toledo for putting 85 points on the
board a against Purdue and Colorado, but can’t forget that Rockets allowed 90
in those two contests. OSU defense will be in an ugly mood after surrendering
late drive last week against USC, and Buckeye offense dropping waaaaay
down in class after being bottled up in 2nd half against the Trojans. Unusual
Cleveland location will produce a pro-Buckeye crowd, and HC Tressel not the
type to let his OSU bunch wallow in self pity. Rockets allowing 45 ppg and gave
up 535 yards vs. Purdue opener. (at Cleveland, OH)
(DNP...SR: Ohio State 1-0)
*AUBURN 33 - West Virginia 16—With Auburn QB Todd expertly
executing o.c. Malzhan’s diversified attack (1045 yds. so far), prefer revenge-
minded Tigers, eager to avenge 34-17 pasting at Morgantown LY. WV’s young
OL (3 sophs start) on heels vs. Tigers hard-charging front 7, while Mountie RB
Devine (217 YR LY) won’t look so divine this time. Auburn WR K. Burns (former
QB scored 4 TDs vs. Miss. State) thriving in wildcat formation, while the
dynamic RB duo of Tate and McCalebb (combined 271 YR vs Miss. State) has
wearing effect on defenses. Remember, WV lost at Colorado LY! TV—ESPN2
(08-W. VA. 34-Auburn 17...W.25-16 W.35/271 A.45/149 W.13/21/2/174 A.13/21/1/111 W.0 A.0)
(08-WEST VIRGINIA -3' 34-17...SR: West Virginia 1-0)
FLORIDA 49 - Tennessee 13—UT’s brazen HC Kiffin liked the free publicity
for his ill-advised statements in preseason (see Looking for an Angle), but those
words only add fuel (plenty of it) to the fire for overpowering Florida, which has
won last two meetings by combined 119-26 score. Vols still-unsteady sr. QB
Crompton (5 ints. TY) likely to self-destruct, especially without much ground
support (mere 2.7 ypc vs. Bruins). Consequently, Gator superstar Tebow (TDP
in 30 straight games) and his blazing playmakers enjoy numerous scoring
opportunities vs. overburdened Vol “D” that was seen finger-pointing in locker
room following UCLA loss. Meyer’s money-making squad (18-4 vs. spread last
22 on board) convincingly breaks school-record for consecutive wins (13).
REGIONAL TV—CBS
(08-Fla. 30-TENN. 6...16-16 F.39/147 T.31/96 T.18/28/1/162 F.8/15/0/96 F.0 T.2)
(08-Fla. -7' 30-6 07-FLA. -7 59-20 06-Fla. -3' 21-20...SR: EVEN 19-19)
Smu 42 - WASHINGTON STATE 24—Laying points on road with SMU
might seem risky. But unless oddsmakers are throwing in a date with Scarlett
Johansson, we’re not about to recommend woeful Wazzu bunch that was blown
out by post-June Jones Hawaii last week. Now, Cougs face Jones’ “real” SMU
Red Gun and hot QB Bo Levi Mitchell (353 YP in UAB upset), who should have
field day vs. WSU “D” (39 ppg) that’s picked up where it left off LY when allowing
most points in college history. (FIRST MEETING)
IDAHO 29 - San Diego State 26—Early efforts confirm reports from WAC
scouts that Idaho not quite as helpless as it’s been the past two seasons. And
since Vandals making a conscientious attempt to establish an infantry diversion
to slow pace of game and keep undersized “D” off field, Kibbie Dome crew has
a chance to do some business vs. undersized SDSU stop unit that still could be
susceptible to smashmouth tactics. Not sure new-look Aztecs ready to carry
numbers on road.
(08-SDSU 45-Idaho 17...S.23-20 I.40/182 S.35/158 S.26/40/1/445 I.16/34/3/169 S.1 I.1)
(08-SAN DIEGO ST. -11 45-17...SR: San Diego St. 2-1)
Nevada 34 - COLORADO STATE 26—Some sharp WAC insiders have had
that “I told you so” look since Nevada proved once again that it wasn’t ready to
take next step up in opener at Notre Dame. But those same sources insist QB
Kaepernick and Chris Ault’s Pistol can function optimally against CSU-level
competition. And not sure about early “buy” signal on Rams, whose win over
Colorado looks a bit less impressive, especially after CSU’s life-and-death
struggle vs. Big Sky Weber State. (06-NEVADA -2' 28-10...SR: Colorado St. 8-1)
*Bowling Green 33 - MARSHALL 24—Bankroll-burning Herd an icy 35% vs.
the spread since early 2004, while Falcons have soared to 11 straight covers as
a visitor. ‘Nuff said. (DNP...SR: Bowling Green 20-7)
California 35 - MINNESOTA 16—After having its hands full vs. a couple of
foes (Syracuse & Air Force) a few notches below Cal, not sure Minnesota ready
to handle a step up in class. Voracious, vet Bear “D” (and its heat-seeking
2ndary) has already wrecked Ralph Friedgen’s well-conceived Maryland attack
and looks a good match to similarly slow QB Weber and Gopher spread. And
new-found confidence of QB Riley suddenly creating lots of possibilities for
potent Cal “O” (56 ppg!). TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: California 3-2)
*Buffalo 27 UCF 20—Since UCF’s moribund offense (nation’s worst
230 ypg LY) still stagnant so far (only 194 yds. vs. Southern Miss), take any
available points with disciplined UB, coming off unusually-sloppy 54-27 loss vs.
Pitt (4 TOs led to 27 Panther pts.; only 14 giveaways previous 15 games!). Bulls
own undisputed edge at QB with quick-learning, mobile QB Maynard (heavily-
recruited Georgia product had 400 YP vs. Pitt), who has solid rapport with
terrific WR duo of Roosevelt & Hamlin (combined 18 catches vs. Pitt).
Defending MAC champ 10-1 vs. spread last 11 away.
(DNP...SR: UCF 5-1)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 52 - Rice 13—Rice defense, such as it is, has given up
1076 yards and 99 points in its first two games and should prove to be easy
“pickens” for deep OSU attack, especially for speedy 6-2 A-A WR Dez Bryant
(19 TDs LY). After losing key TD-makers such as QB Chase Clement, WR
Jarrett Dillard, and TE/FB James Casey, Owls unlikely to stay within reach,
especially with Birds playing third straight week on road.
(DNP...SR: Oklahoma State 2-0-1)
OKLAHOMA 35 - Tulsa 25—Check status of Heisman-winning Oklahoma
QB Bradford. If he’s still sidelined with shoulder injury as expected, new Tulsa
triggerman Kinne (Texas transfer; 4 TDP last week) probably has enough
weapons to trade points for a while with Sooners’ still-learning RS frosh QB L.
Jones. (07-Okl. -23' 62-21...SR: Okl. 15-7-1)
*BAYLOR 32 - Connecticut 16—No doubt that Husky defense a resolute
bunch. But UConn offense undergoing major transition to no-huddle, spread
attack of new coordinator Moorhead. Prefer to lay points with bright Baylor HC
Briles, who has scintillating soph QB Griffin, a veteran defense, an extra week
of prep, and 9 covers in his last 11 games.
(08-CONN. 31-Baylor 28...B.24-21 C.46/225 B.43/169 B.14/25/0/208 C.13/23/2/125 C.0 B.0)
(08-CONNECTICUT -12' 31-28...SR: Connecticut 1-0)
*TEXAS A&M 33 - Utah State 13—Everything worked right for HC Mike
Sherman & Aggies in their opener vs. New Mexico, as they racked up 606 total
yards, blue-chip frosh RB Christine Michael gained 93 YR off the bench, QB
Jerrod Johnson tossed for 349 yards, and the reorganized-for-speed defense
had five sacks. But Utah State had 221 YR in its opener at Utah and is now on
a 14-6-1 spread run (5-4-1 getting 20 or more). Both teams were off last week.
(FIRST MEETING)
KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 13—Now that UK looks strong on both sides of
ball TY, Wildcats convincingly capture 3rd straight Governor’s Cup vs. sliding
L’Ville (only 11-13 L2Ys) on 5-game spread losing streak. UK’s blossoming QB
Hartline and his burgeoning array of receivers (9 different ones in opener)
should exploit rebuilt Card 2ndary (3 new starters) untested in opener vs.
Indiana State. And doubt L’Ville’s unproven QB Burke (2 ints. vs. Sycamores)
keeps pace vs. stingy UK defense, featuring menacing, lock-down CB Lindley.
CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Ky. 27-LVL. 2...L.16-13 K.33/63 L.29/53 L.20/43/3/152 K.16/31/0/147 K.1 L.2)
(08-Ky. +3' 27-2 07-KY. +5 40-34 06-LVL -22' 59-27...SR: Kentucky 12-9)
*KENT STATE 23 - Iowa State 21—Kent rush attack has been oddly lacking
in first two games TY, but Flash RB Jarvis rushed for 252 yds. in last 2 years
against Iowa State. Jarvis and vet Kent OL should get ground game in gear
against ISU defense that’s allowed 5.5 ypc. The Cyclones made Iowa true frosh
RB Wegher and N. Dakota St.’s Paschall look like Heisman hopefuls, and
Jarvis should be able to find creases in the ISU front 7.
(08-IOWA ST. 48-Kent St. 28...K.20-14 K.43/243 I.45/160 I.15/21/0/214 K.11/24/0/167 I.1 K.4)
(08-ISU -7' 48-28 07-Ksu +3' 23-14...SR: Iowa State 5-1)
*BYU 35 - Florida State 23—Cougs’ quick start causing spread to rise,
especially after Florida State almost suffered the indignity of home loss to
Jacksonville State last week (Seminoles trailed Gamecocks with less than a
minute remaining before salvaging 19-9 victory!). Still, might be worth laying
extra point or two to take BYU, which owns the better defense and the more
accomplished QB in sr. Hall (65 TDP last 2+ seasons).
(DNP...SR: Florida State 2-0)
*ARKANSAS 30 - Georgia 26—With UGA recouping from draining 41-37 win
vs. S. Carolina, good spot for resurgent and rested Arkansas squad that’s had
essentially 3 weeks to prepare for crucial SEC opener. Hogs strong-armed 6-
6 transfer QB Mallet, versatile, shifty RB M. Smith and mates (hammering 6-3,
220 true frosh RB Wingo, Jr. is a force) should burn Dawg defense (yielded 427
yds. vs ‘Cocks). UGA ground game containable (only 202 YR 1st two games),
so expect QB Cox to feel heat from more forceful Hog front 7, featuring blitz-
happy DT Sheppard. TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Georgia 8-3)
*Air Force 34 - NEW MEXICO 10—Is there any truth to the rumor that New
Mexico backers are soliciting Glenn Beck to get the ball rolling on an “Impeach
Mike Locksley” campaign? Van Jones-like evidence mounting against new
Lobo regime, with the spread offense Locksley imported from his days as o.c.
at Illinois yet to produce a TD, and UNM backers crying for Rocky Long to return
to save newly-configured 4-3 “D” that’s allowing 43 ppg. Well-schooled AFA
can ruthlessly exploit Lobo shortcomings.
(08-A. FORCE 23-N. Mex. 10...A.17-14 A.69/227 N.47/212 N.9/18/1/91 A.1/3/1/1 A.2 N.3)
(08-AFA -5' 23-10 07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7...SR: Air Force 15-10)
*Utep 31 - NEW MEXICO STATE 13—UTEP confidence shaken after
whiffing in Dave Kingman-like fashion during opening homestand vs. Buffalo
and Kansas. But if Miners looking to take out frustrations, they couldn’t find a
better foe than border rival NMSU, whose early attempts at HC Walker’s new
“smashmouth” style have resulted in a 21-6 loss vs. Idaho (?) & narrow escape
vs. Prairie View (?). Time for Mike Price to consider retiring if his established QB
Vittatoe can’t extend margin.
(08-Nms 34-UTEP 33...N.22-21 U.48/277 N.25/37 N.29/39/2/329 U.11/26/0/95 N.2 U.3)
(08-Nms +7 34-33 07-NMS -5 29-24 06-UTEP -16' 44-38...SR: UTEP 49-35-2)
*TEXAS 35 - Texas Tech 14—Everyone in Austin has been waiting for this
payback since UT’s last-second loss LY in Lubbock cost Longhorns a shot in
LY’s BCS title game. Colt McCoy is Colt McCoy, and the Texas defense
appears improved. New TT jr. QB Tyler Potts showed some “happy feet” and
tossed 3 ints. in opener vs. North Dakota, but he was on the beam for 456 YP,
no sacks, and no ints. last week vs. Rice. Side with UT’s deep defensive
backfield and special effort. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-TEX. TECH 39-Texas 33...T.31-18 T.28/105 U.28/80 T.36/53/0/474 U.20/34/1/294 T.1 U.1)
(08-TECH +3' 39-33 07-TEXAS -6' 59-43 06-Texas -10' 35-31...SR: Texas 43-15)
*UNLV 28 - Hawaii 27—Dicey psychological spot for UNLV, which not only
emptied its chambers in gut-wrenching last-second loss vs. Oregon State, but
also saw QB Clayton go down with knee injury. Rebs don’t lose much when
going to southpaw backup Clausen (who led late rally vs. Beavers), but chalk role
not as historically profitable for Mike Sanford’s UNLV. And there’s apparently some
octane left in Hawaii Red Gun with sr. QB Alexander (453 YP vs. WSU) firing away.
(07-Haw. -17 49-14 06-HAW. -12' 42-13...SR: Haw. 12-6)
*STANFORD 26 - San Jose State 17—Stepping up to heavyweight class vs.
the likes of USC a bit much for middleweight San Jose, but competitive effort vs.
Utah indicates Spartans resourceful enough to punch above their weight vs.
light-heavies such as Stanford. Cardinal “O” still a work in progress with RS
frosh Luck making only his third start, while SJSU doesn’t have to be reminded
how Jim Harbaugh jammed in a last-second TD to pad score in LY’s 23-10 final.
(08-STAN. 23-Sjsu 10...St.17-16 St.36/204 Sj.35/54 Sj.23/26/0/165 St.13/28/1/159 St.1 Sj.2)
(08-STAN. -8 23-10 07-STAN. -7 37-0 06-SJS +10 35-34...SR: Stanford 48-14-1)
Cincinnati 30 - OREGON STATE 24—Payback time for OSU, which not only
lost by 31 at Cincy in ’07, but also will be reminded by Corvallis oldtimers that
long-ago Beaver hoopsters absorbed an 80-46 beating vs. Bearcats in 1963
Final Four. Still, not too interested in bucking red-hot Cincy bunch that has
started the campaign in midseason form. Savvy Bearcat QB Pike can solve
rebuilt OSU “D,” while absence of pugnacious sr. QB Moevao (shoulder) robbing
Mike Riley’s “O” of needed versatility.
(07-CINCINNATI +3' 34-3...SR: Cincinnati 1-0)
ADDED GAMES
*RUTGERS 34 - Florida Intl. 13—Lean to Rutgers, based mostly on its 10
covers in last 13 games as double-digit chalk. Enthusiasm for favored Scarlet
Knights tempered by presence of talented but green true frosh QB Savage at
trigger of their attack, however. (FIRST MEETING)
ALABAMA 42 - North Texas 7—Bama mentor Saban expressed
unhappiness with his squad’s initial lack of energy and enthusiasm in ho-hum
40-14 win vs. FIU. Hence, envision a full 60-minute effort vs. improved North
Texas, which might have trouble getting off the mat following 31-30 triple-OT
loss vs. Ohio. Tide’s poised QB McElroy jacked-up to face Mean Green mentor
Todd Dodge, who was his high school coach in Texas. Check status of NTU QB
Riley Dodge (coach’s son), who suffered shoulder injury vs. Bobcats.
(DNP...SR: Alabama 2-0)
MARYLAND 27 - Middle Tennessee St. 26—Absolutely zero interest in
laying points with Maryland (2-13 as favorite since 2005!), which needed OT to
get past CAA James Madison at home last week after getting obliterated in
opener at Cal.
(08-MTS 24-Md. 14...Mt.21-15 Md.25/146 Mt.41/118 Mt.29/41/0/284 Md.14/29/3/211 Mt.1 Md.0)
(08-MTS +12' 24-14 06-MARY. -22' 24-10...SR: Maryland 2-1)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Florida Atlantic 13—This intersectional for USC is
sandwiched between Georgia and Ole Miss (next Thursday), but will still “lay it”
in game pitting Florida state coaching legends. Spurrier opened up attack in 41-
37 loss in Athens, and look for his maturing QB Garcia (313 YP vs. Dawgs) to
bedazzle vulnerable, rebuilt FAU defense (8 new starters), shredded in 49-3
slaughter at Nebraska in opener. Owls a hootless 1-11 vs. spread last 12 as a
non-conference visitor. (06-SOUTH CAROLINA -29 45-6...SR: South Carolina 1-0)
Uab 26 - TROY 24—Sr. QB Webb did throw 4 ints. in UAB’s 35-33 home loss
to SMU last week, but he also nearly led Blazers all the way back from 28-7 first-
half deficit. Webb (738 total yards, 4 TDP, 3 TDR in first 2 games) likely to find
plenty of holes in depleted Trojan secondary, so small upset no surprise.
(06-UAB -6 21-3...SR: EVEN 3-3)
*LSU 41 - La.-Lafayette 10—Talent mismatch. But note that LSU is 0-8 last
8 as a DD favorite, and remember that promising QB Jordan Jeffrerson has only
four career starts. Also note that Lafayette is 6-3 its last 9 as a DD road dog and
that HC Rickey Bustle appears to be tightening the Ragin’ Cajun defense (at
least in relative terms). Must also note, however, rebuilding Lafayette offense
had only 287 yards in 17-15 last-minute upset of K-State last week. CABLE
TV—ESPNU (06-LSU -30' 45-3...SR: LSU 20-0)
*ARIZONA STATE 43 - La.-Monroe 17—”Preseason” continues for ASU,
which has borrowed a page from Bill Snyder by opening vs. Idaho State &
Monroe (with a “bye” in between). Since Warhawk “D” lacks playmakers (like
most Sun Belt stop units) and new-look ULM no-huddle unlikely to trade points,
measured vote for Sun Devils to extend margin as Dennis Erickson gradually
expands playbook for new but sr. starting QB Sullivan before real action
commences next week at Georgia.
(FIRST MEETING)
THE LOGICAL APPROACH
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TROY - 6 ½ over Alabama Birmingham - This season began with great expectations for Troy but an upset loss at Bowling Green and a thrashing at Florida have the Trojans at 0-2 with their Sun Belt Conference opener at Arkansas State on deck next week. UAB had a solid win over Rice to open the season and then failed last week as a double digit favorite against SMU, needing a late rally to make the final score respectable in a 35-33 loss. The Blazers hit the road for the first time while Troy plays their first home game. UAB has won 3 of 4 in the series but the teams last met in 2006. Troy's program has improved in the intervening seasons while UAB's has regressed. This is an important game for the instate recruiting of Alabama and Auburn leftovers. The circumstances and motivation favor the hosts and Troy is clearly the more talented team, taking on their weakest opponent to date. Troy wins 34-17.
Other Featured College Selections
Bowling Green - 3 over MARSHALL - Bowling Green opened with an upset win over Troy and followed that with an impressive effort at Missouri, leading most of the way before falling to the more talented Tigers 27-20. Marshall struggled to defeat FBS Southern Illinois 31-28 before being blown out at Virginia Tech last week, allowing over 600 to what had been an inept offense a weak earlier against Alabama. Sure, the difference in class between Marshall and Alabama is clear but such a poor effort validates the continued decline in the Marshall program since the days of Moss, Leftwich and Pennington. Bowling Green's program has been on the rise in the MAC. They have fared well on the non-conference road, covering 6 of 7 since 2007 including straight up wins at Wyoming, Pitt and Minnesota. Marshall is clearly in the class of teams BG can handle and they are priced at the same - 3 they were last season when they went to Wyoming and thrashed the Cowboys 45-16, validating their mettle as a small road favorite. They should do so again. Bowling Green wins 31-20.
ARKANSAS Pick 'em over Georgia - Arky coach Bobby Petrino was an utter NFL failure in his part season as Atlanta head coach but the guy can coach at the collegiate level. In 4 seasons his Louisville teams were 41-9 and since he left the Cards have been a dismal 11-13. Though just 5-7 in his first season in Fayetteville the Hogs ended Tulsa's perfect season and ended their own season with an upset of LSU. Things are looking up for the Razorbacks who return 17 starters and will have a high powered offense. They are rested after an opening 48-10 rout of Missouri State (591-205 yardage edge). Georgia has faced far better competition in losing at Oklahoma State and then barely surviving South Carolina. But the Bulldogs showed vulnerability on both sides of the football in those two games. Georgia has traditionally been the stronger program and had beaten Arkansas 7 of 8 times since 1990. But they've always been favored by more than a FG and by more than a TD 7 times. The linesmaker recognized how much the gap has closed and a highly motivated and well prepared team has pointed to this game, even with Alabama up next week. Arkansas wins 27-21.
MARYLAND - 6 ½ over Middle Tennessee - These teams meet for the third time in four seasons and Maryland is seeking revenge for a 24-14 road loss last season as 13 point favorites. The Terps were routed at Cal in their opener and then needed to rally last week against FCS James Madison to win 38-35 in OT. MTSU rebounded from an opening loss at Clemson to defeat Memphis at home last week. They do have their Sun Belt opener next week while Maryland hosts a non-conference foe, Rutgers. Maryland is the more talented team and should have the motivation to play well after last week's scare and last season's upset loss at MTSU. They will take this game seriously. Coach Friedgen has returned Maryland to respectability and the Terps have been to 3 straight Bowls and to 6 in his 8 seasons. Scheduling dynamics also favor the host and the price is more than reasonable and by far the smallest impost they must overcome in their four meetings this decade. MTSU has struggled when stepping up in class on the road. Maryland wins 31-17.