Newsletters 9/23 - 9/26

GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES

NEW ENGLAND by 24 over Buffalo
SEATTLE by 5 over San Diego
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Arizona-Oakland game

NCAA KEY RELEASES

NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 2 over Georgia Tech
ALABAMA by 20 over Arkansas
TEXAS by 28 over Ucla
FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 18 over North Texas

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

BOWLING GREEN

There’s a definite MAC vs. Big Ten feel to this week’s card, and perhaps the most compelling of those matchups is Bowling Green making a rather short trek north to Ann Arbor to face Michigan. But the “Big House” is not likely to bother a Falcons side that has covered 18 of its last 22 as a visitor, including 11 of its last 13 as a road underdog. BGSU has also started with three straight covers for HC Dave Clawson in 2010, and has posted a solid +11.50 “AFS” (Away From Spread) numbers its past two games.

BOISE STATE

We never have to try to convince ourselves to recommend Boise State, long a friend of the Tech Plays. And for good reason, as the Broncos have covered 23 of their last 32 games during their latest pointspread uptick, and look to do so again on Saturday when hosting Oregon State. And Boise has been doing the “win thing” at Broncos Stadium for a long time, standing 37-16 as blue carpet chalk since 2000. Boise is also humming, posting an 11.75 “AFS” number through its first two games, and is always a play with HC Chris Petersen in the Coach & Pointspread system. Note the Beavers’ subpar 7-20 spread mark in September since HC Mike Riley reappeared on the OSU sidelines in 2003.

ARIZONA

There are some pronounced team and series trends in this Pac-10 rivalry that all indicate hot Arizona should gain revenge on Cal in a featured Saturday battle at Tucson. The Wildcats were bitter 24-16 losers at Berkeley last November, which was the latest in a string of covers (five) by home teams in this series. This week, that advantage belongs to UA, which has been excelling for a while at Arizona Stadium (now 15-4 vs. line the last 18 as host). Meanwhile, the Bears have struggled lately on the road, dropping 16 of their last 24 spread decisions away from home.

TROY

It was a bitter defeat for Troy last week at UAB, but expect the Trojans to bounce back strongly this Saturday at Movie Gallery Stadium when hosting recent whipping post Arkansas State. Note that Troy has won and covered three straight vs. the Red Wolves, and has made a habit of covering at home (six in a row) vs. Sun Belt foes. And extended spread marks for ASU are decidedly subpar (5-17 last 22 on board, plus nine straight spread losses as a Sun Belt visitor.

ST LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis is getting closer to notching its first win of 2010, losing its first two games by only six points total. And we are not afraid to buck Washington when it invades the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday, especially considering its poor recent chalk marks (1-4 last season, 6-13 since 2007, and no covers the last thee vs. the Rams). Moreover, new Skins HC Mike Shanahan was a big underachiever as chalk in his recent years at Denver, dropping 16 of his last 19 as a favorite with the Broncos.

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

BOISE STATE over Oregon State RATING: 1
STANFORD over Notre Dame RATING: 1
SOUTH CAROLINA over Auburn RATING: 2
TCU over Smu RATING: 3
UTEP over Memphis RATING: 4
OREGON over Arizona State RATING: 4
KENTUCKY over Florida RATING: 5
BAYLOR over Rice RATING: 5

NFL KEY RELEASES

CAROLINA over Cincinnati RATING: 2
DALLAS over Houston RATING: 3
ATLANTA over New Orleans RATING: 4
SEATTLE over San Diego RATING: 5
TENNESSEE over New York Giants RATING: 5

NELLY

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 TENNESSEE (-13½) over Uab
RATING 4 BOSTON COLLEGE (+4) over Virginia Tech
RATING 3 WAKE FOREST (+18) over Florida State
RATING 2 PURDUE (-13) over Toledo
RATING 2 CONNECTICUT (-17½) over Buffalo
RATING 1 OHIO (+5½) over Marshall
RATING 1 GEORGIA TECH (-8½) over NC State

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 ARIZONA (-4) over Oakland
RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Houston
RATING 3 NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Buffalo
RATING 2 MINNESOTA (-10) over Detroit
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Philadelphia

POWER SWEEP

4* FLORIDA ST over Wake Forest - Wake is 3-9 SU/ATS the L/3Y on the ACC road and just is 5-12 ATS in their 2nd consec AG. LY FSU QB Manuel made his 1st career start (265 ttl yd) and FSU (+5) won 41-28, marking the 4th str upset in this series. WF has won their L/2 trips to Tallahassee outscoring FSU by a comb 42-3, holding them to just 359 TOTAL yds (WF +9 TO’s). LW FSU delivered a 4H LPS Winner with a 34-10 win over BYU. Vs OU, Ponder hurt his Heisman hopes with a 113 yd gm, and LW only put up 149 (avg 143 ypg, 59%, 5-1 ratio). Ty Jones leads FSU’s run gm with 220 (7.9) while Bert Reed has 17 rec (10.0). Grobe is 19-13-1 ATS as an AD. LW’s gm was the latest start time in Stanford hist and WF fell fast as SU scored TD’s on its 1st 8 poss and rolled, 68-24. WF was outFD’d 28-21, outgained 535-283 and put up just 76 pass yds. True Fr Price made his 1st start (7-17-71) LW and is the #1 passer with just 265 (47%) and a 3-2 ratio. Stachitas (84 yd, 41%, 0-1 ratio) is the top rusher with 145 (6.6) foll’d by Price with 143 (4.8). Bowden used to be a money burner with a 6-15 record as a HF but Fisher seems to have brought back the home swagger covering by 17 & 14 pts TY. We cashed two years ago with FSU as our free September 5H as well as 5H Winner in 2002. Will we use the Noles for a 2010 Winner? FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 51 Wake Forest 23

3* NOTRE DAME (+) over Stanford - This will mark the 14th consec ssn that these two programs have met. The series has featured a pair of Cardinal comebacks over the past 2 seasons as in South Bend SU trailed 28-7 in the 4Q (lost by 7) and LY on the Farm ND blew an 8 pt 4Q lead as SU scored TD’s on their L/2 drives (last one w/:59) snapping a ND 7 gm series win streak (ND has still won 7 str at home vs SU). The Irish fell victim to a fake FG in OT which resulted in the winning TD LW vs MSU. QB Crist did look sharp however passing for 369 yds (58%) and 4 TD’s but the defense could not stop the Spartan run game all’g 203 yds (4.7). Stanford meanwhile beat WF LW on the Farm as the Cardinal scored TD’s on all 8 drives in which QB Luck played (4 TD pass, 1 TD rush) and has now outscored their 1st 3 opp by a 52-14 avg clip. The Cardinal have gone just 1-5-1 ATS on the road vs non-conf foes S/’04 giving the extremely upset Irish another tight win in this now highly competitive series. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME (+) 30 Stanford 27

3* USF over Wku - LY USF (WKU’s 1st BCS home opp) only led 21-13 after 3Q but scored two 4Q TD’s (WKU was SOD at USF13) but still failed to cover as a 24’ pt AF. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 SU at BCS schools with an avg score of 42-8. USF had a bye LW and has another SBC team, FlU, on deck. WKU is 0-3 SU/ATS and trailed 31-7 in the 4Q vs Indiana before falling 38-21 as a 13’ pt HD as they were outgained 467-288. USF has the expected offensive (#29-108) and defensive (#65-120) edges. While USF QB Daniels leads the Bulls with 130 rush (5.9, 1 TD) and is avg 174 ypg pass (48%), he has a 3-4 ratio. WKU QB Jakes is avg 120 ypg (58%) with a 2-2 ratio but has just 31 yds rush (1.8). Holtz is 5-3 ATS as a DD fav incl 1-0 TY. USF has been a 5H Winner twice since ‘07 and we’re not afraid to lay the points with them as they’ve won big for us before. FORECAST: USF 48 Wku 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* UNLV over New Mexico - LY NM was without HC Locksley for this game (susp) and we used a 3H LPS on LV (-1) on the road and they delivered an easy 34-17 win. LV snapped a 20 game MWC road losing streak in that one. LW, NM’s starting QB (Gruner), who was covering punts 2W ago, got his 1st start vs the #14 tm in the nation, Utah. UT scored 21 pts in 4:16 to open up a 21-7 gm and rolled 56-14. Gruner hit 3-8-33 before leaving with an inj (CS). Holbrook (CS) is still the leading passer avg 195 (55%) but with a horrible 1-4 ratio. True Fr Austin has thrown for 151 (56%, 1-1). NM has been outscored 180-31 and has yet to hold an opponent under 50 pts. LW UNLV was down 24-0 at half vs Idaho and couldn’t rally, as they were outgained 332-187 in a 30-7 loss. QB Clayton is avg 113 ypg (44%) with a 1-0 ratio and is the top rusher with just 77 (2.9). LV has not scored on the ground TY. The top WR is Payne with 11 rec (16.4). The playing field seems more level here, but it’s hard to ignore NM being outscored 60-10 in 3 losses, while LV has only been outscored 36-13 in their 3 losses. We’ve had a GOY Winner in this series and could UNLV be the play you hear Saturday? FORECAST: UNLV 37 New Mexico 20

2* INDIANA over Akron - Indy has won and covered both meetings (‘07 and LY) as both W’s were by 17. LY UA susp’d its QB late in the week and starter Rodgers only had 2 pract with the 1st string. UA only trailed 17-14 at HT but couldn’t overcome 4 2H int resulting in 14 IU pts and lost 38-21 (-2’) at home. The Hoosiers are 15-2 SU and 11-4-2 ATS S/’96 vs current MAC schools. IU shook off the rust (16 days between gms) and won 38-21 at WK (31-7 lead) as they outgained (466-288) and outFD’d (27-16) the Hilltoppers. QB Chappell is avg 274 (74%) with a 5-0 ratio and LY’s #1 WR Doss had an 87 yd KR and 5 rec (12.4) after missing the opener. UA has started the Ianello era 0-3 SU/ATS after its 47-10 beating by Kentucky in which they were outgained 544-172. QB’s Nicely and Rogers combined to hit 6-24 for 105 yd and were sk’d 5x. UA is #94 in pass eff D (258, 64%, 7-2 ratio). IU is 2-0 ATS as a DD fav under Lynch and have the fire power to keep it out of the reach of the hapless Zips. FORECAST: INDIANA 45 Akron 17

2* BOSTON COLLEGE (+) over Virginia Tech - LY vs VT, BC didn’t get its first FD til the 3Q, trailing 34-0. BC is just 6-12 SU vs VT but has won B2B gms in Chestnut Hill and is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in reg ssn matchups (5 meetings L/3Y). LW vs EC, VT trailed 24-21 at HT but scored 4 TD in 9:00 to capture its 1st win (and cover) TY, 49-27. QB Taylor is avg 170 ypg (61%) with a 5-1 ratio and leads with 191 rush (5.0). RB Williams (142, 3.0, 3) went out mid-2Q LW with a hamstring inj (CS). VT’s top rec is Boykin (10, 22.9, 3 TD) and he has almost 3x’s the yds of the #2 man. BC is off an early ssn bye and HC Spaziani said the week would be like spring all over again. QB Shinskie has put up decent stats avg 200 ypg (60%) with a 4-2 ratio, but Spaziani and fans are still waiting for a defining moment. Bkup Marscovetra (42 yd, 50%, 1-1) has seen limited PT but don’t be surprised to see both play here. With Spaziani as HC the HT is 9-4 in BC gms (0-2 TY). BC is also 9-3 as a HD S/’99. LY we went against Boston College to win our free Sept 5H. Do we reverse that trend here? FORECAST: BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 26 Virginia Tech 23

4* Washington over ST LOUIS - This is the 5th meeting in 6 years with the Rams covering 3 straight with 2 outright upsets. LY The Redskins beat STL 9-7 but failed to cover as a 9.5 pt HF in the 2nd week. WAS had 4 drives of 60+ yds but settled for 3 FG’s with a 362-245 yd edge. LW WAS blew a 20-7 1H lead and found themselves in a shoot out where including OT they were outgained 328-172 the rest of the way. WAS first 2 drives got the HOU 23 but they settled for FG’s and in the 4Q they had a 29 yd FG blocked. This will be the 3rd straight team STL faces that is starting a new QB and offensive scheme vs 2009. This has enabled STL to keep it respectable as ARZ took a step down with Anderson who had little support from the run game. LW OAK changed its starting Ctr after 1 game and was also without LG Gallery. While STL gave up 173 yds (4.3) rushing they were able to rattle Campbell and force him out of the game. Now they face a team that has definitively upgraded at QB with McNabb (426 yds 74% 1-0 LW). STL will also face their former DC Jim Haslett who was passed over of the HC job after going 2-10 as an interim HC in 2008. Look for a sharp effort out of WAS’s defense vs a young QB on a team with a poor home edge (9-21 ATS at home). The fact that AF’s off a home OT loss are 11-0-1 ATS since 2003 is a bonus here. FORECAST: Washington 27 ST LOUIS 10

3* Pittsburgh over TAMPA BAY - Clearly the key to the 2010 Steelers until Roethlisberger gets back is their defense which has been outstanding in the first 2 games. PIT overcame a 238-127 yd deficit thanks to a 89 yd KR to open the game and forced 7 TO’s for 12 pts. PIT’s run defense has been relentless holding ATL’s Turner to 42 yds (2.2) and snapped Johnson’s 12 game streak of 100 yds with 34 yds (2.1). TB is a surprising 2-0 to start the season despite an NFL low $80.8 million roster. TB QB Freeman looked good again LW with 178 yds and 2 TD’s but that was vs a defense with 6 new starters. He has 6 games of 52% or less completion in 12 starts and now faces one of the elite defenses in the NFL. The Bucs do have a top tier special teams unit which has been known to give PIT problems in the past. Look for PIT to resign Leftwich quickly as not only does he have a chance to start here, his experience with TB LY mentoring Freeman will help the Steelers as they secure their 3rd win of the year. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 17 TAMPA BAY 6

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Cincinnati over CAROLINA - After getting thumped by NE in the opener and facing a tough fightvs BAL, CIN is in a down spot here with their 3rd road game in 4 Wks with CLE on deck. CIN is only 1-7 ATS as an AF while CAR is 4-1 ATS as a HD. After a confidence boosting 2H vs NE the Bengals got into the win column with by pressuring Flacco into 4 int’s. CIN turned those into 6 pts in a defensive struggle which turned out to be the difference maker. They now take on a defense with 6 new starters that is trying to get its bearings. CAR’s issues have been compounded by poor play at QB (183 yds 42% with a 2-5 ratio). Clausen maybe named the starter sooner than later. Fox is trying to use RB’s Williams and Stewart who have 171 rush yds together (3.7) to keep the games close and steal a win. CIN however has the RB in Benson to match CAR’s power run game, a vastly more sound QB position with a deep receiving unit that will only get better as the season rolls on. FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 CAROLINA 13

2* JACKSONVILLE over Philadelphia - The Eagles had an ideal foe for Vick to make his 1st career start vs a soft defense in a controlled environment on a fast surface. Vick threw for 284 yds (62%) with a 2-0 ratio. The Eagles may have lost their best OL with LT Peters (knee) in addition to Ctr Jackson LW and the protection struggled allowing 6 sacks. JAX’s inability to draw fans has crippled their homefield advantage and while they were 4-13 ATS the L/2Y they did take care of business at home in the opener. They also have the added edges of catching PHI in a 2nd straight road game and have a full game of tape on Vick. LW JAX had the misfortune off catching SD off a MNF div loss and it translated into a 38-13 beating. QB Garrard imploded with 4 int’s after having none in the opener and McCown (120, 58%) got some reps. JAX got taken out of their offense LW as Jones-Drew had 31 yds (2.6). Now they face a PHI defense that has allowed 124 rush ypg (4.2) the rush attack will again flourish and take some heat off the QB position. FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE (+) 24 Philadelphia 20

REDSHEET

Alabama 45 - ARKANSAS 20 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Alabama minus 6, and is now minus 7½. All possible respect for the potent Hogs, & their brilliant leader, Mallett, who has completed 70-of-100 thus far, with 9 TD tosses. And he is in off a 30 TD/7 INT '09 campaign. Thus, a formidable opponent for the Tide, to be sure. But this 'Bama squad is another matter altogether. Not only do they do their share of scoring behind QB McElroy, who leads the land in passing efficiency, as well as Ingram, Richardson, etc, but they rank 2nd in the land in scoring "D", & put the clamps on Mallett LY. Can't jump off ship. RATING: ALABAMA 89

BOISE STATE 48 - Oregon State 17 - (8:00) -- Line opened at BoiseSt minus 17, and is now minus 16½. As in the above game, we take a backseat to no one in our regard for the Beavers, who are only 4 pts from a 9- 1 spread run, & are always a dangerous dog, especially with the explosive Rodgers brothers leading the way. However, the Broncos are indeed horses of a different color. Led by QB Moore (44 TD passes & only 4 INTs since the start of '09), Boise seems unstoppable for most of the time. Not only are the Broncos prolific on the "O" side of the ball, but they rank 5th in total "D". Until things change. RATING: BOISE STATE 89

Air Force 38 - WYOMING 13 - (2:00) -- Line opened at AirForce minus 13, and is now minus 11. Early respect for Cowboy chances of keeping this one in sight. A year ago, we were killed, as we had the Falcons a huge play, only to see them win 10-0 as 10½ chalks. Ouch! As usual, they have their overland game humming. Not only 399 RYpg (#1 in the nation), but try 343 vs the Sooners of Oklahoma, who are allowing just 105.5 RYpg vs their other 2 opponents, as well as 409 vs a BYU team which had previously frustrated the AF run. 'Boys upticking, but in off 85-13 pt deficit vs Texas & Boise. No letup. RATING: AIR FORCE 88

Baylor 41 - RICE 17 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Baylor minus 7, and is now minus 7½. As we wrote earlier, the Bears, are no match for the biggies, one of which had its way with them a week ago, namely 4th-ranked TCU. Nearly a 300-yd deficit in that contest, as their only pts came on a 53-yd Griffin pass. But they've previously proved that they can get it done, when placed in the chalk role, as their 34-6 romp over Buffalo indicated. The Owls have been whipping boys of late, allowing 45.6 ppg in their last 9 outings, & are only 4 pts from a 1-13 SU run. And they rank 106th in rushing. Bears don't let these get away. RATING: BAYLOR 88

IOWA 51 - Ball State 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Iowa minus 26½, and is now minus 28. Early on, we had this one circled as a Card play, as the Hawkeyes are in a huge sandwich, namely off Arizona, with PennSt up next. But you can bet that HC Ferentz won't allow any letdown, nor any look-ahead. Loss to Arizona dropped the Hawks in the polls, but the fact is that they rank as the highest team in the land, with a loss on its slate. BallSt hasn't done much of anything, since its super '08 season. Perfect bounceback. RATING: IOWA 88

San Francisco 27 - KANSAS CITY 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened as Pick-em, and is now SanFrancisco minus 2. If anyone doubted the resurgence of the Niners, with their opening week stinker at Seattle, they were emphatically erased with their Monday Night showing vs the Super Bowl champion Saints. A loss on the final play is a killer, & a Monday team taking to the road the following week, is normally a "go-against". But feeling is that QB Smith came into his own in that game (23-of-32 for 275 yds, in leading the Niners to a 417-287 yd edge, as well as a 24-17 FD advantage. Chiefs doing it with smoke & mirrors.RATING: SAN FRANCISCO 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Stanford, South Carolina, Army, Iowa -- NFL: Carolina, Seattle, Green Bay

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Fla-Atlantic (-4 to -10); Temple (+19 to +16½); Missouri (-16 to -18½); Tennessee (-11 to -13½); UTEP (-7 to -9½); Wyoming (+13 to +11); Texas (-14½ to -16½); Kansas (-19½ to -21½); UNLV (-6 to -8); SouthFla (-25 to -27); CentMich (+10 to +8½); Iowa (-26½ to -28); Wake Forest (+19½ to +18); Cincinnati (+18 to +16½); Alabama (-6 to -7½); Stanford (-2½ to -4); SoMiss (-4 to -5½); Oregon (-9½ to -11); La-Lafayette (+3 to +1½) - NFL: None - TIME CHANGES: FlaSt/Wake: now 3:30; Okla/Cincy: 6:00; Boise/OregSt: 8:00; NoCaro/Rutgers:

KEY INJURIES: Arizona WR Criner (toe) ??; BG QB Schilz (shoulder) doubtful; CentFla RB Harvey (knee) doubtful; Clemson QB Parker (back) probable; FlaSt QB Ponder (tricep) prob; Fresno RB Rouse (shoulder) prob; Houston QBs Keenum & Turner (knee & collarbone) both out for season; Memphis QB Smith (concussion) ??; NewMex QB Holbrook (knee) doubtful; NoTexas QBs Thompson & Tune both out for season; Purdue QB Marve (knee) prob, & WR Smith (knee) out for season; Rice QB HcHargue (shoulder) out; Rutgers Rb Martinek (led) ??; Utah QB Wynn (thumb) probable; UTEP RB Buckram (knee) probable; VaTech RB Williams (hamstring) doubtful - NFL: Atlanta RB Turner (groin) probable; Carolina WR Smith (wrist) probable; Cincy WR Ochocinco (ribs) prob; Cleveland QB Delhomme (ankle) prob; GreenBay RB Grant (ankle) out; Houston WR Johnson (ankle) prob; Philly QB Kolb (concussion) prob; SnDiego RB Mathews (ankle) probable...

PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET BOISE ST over Oregon St by 28

Chris Petersen’s Broncos methodically took care of business last week against outmanned Wyoming. Knowing they would have to equal or surpass Texas’ 27-point margin of victory over the Cowboys on 9/11 in order to maintain their lofty BCS perch, the Blue Turf boys smashed Wyoming, 51-6. When the carnage was fi nally cleared, the Broncos had racked up 648 yards and allowed 135 yards, the fewest by a Boise State opponent in nearly three years. Now the home team faces its last major obstacle before consecutive November showdowns with Fresno State and Nevada – and they’ll get to unveil Bronco Stadium’s brand-new signature blue surface in the school’s fi rst regular-season game on network TV. With BSU now 6-1 ATS versus the Pac-10, 6-1 ATS before facing New Mexico State and 5-1 ATS as non-conference home chalk of less than 17 points, we’re not about to mess with the Smurfs on their new blue turf. Check out these numbers in lined games on this rug: 60-2 SU and 43-18-1 ATS, including 33-1 SU and 26-7-1 ATS when off a SU and ATS win (15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS when laying less than 23 points). The clincher? Since 2004, Game Three double-digit HF’s that are 2-0 SU and ATS are 18-0 SU and 15-2-1 ATS when hosting non-conference foes (2-0 this season, with Kentucky over Akron and Ohio State over Ohio U). If you’re concerned about Oregon State’s 15-4 ATS record lately as an underdog, you should know the visitors are only 3-2 ATS when taking points outside their conference. It’s tough to back an OSU defense that’s suffered some major Beaver-pounding so far this season, giving up 453 yards to lessthan- intimidating Louisville and getting outgained by over 100 yards in both games. Mike Riley’s Corvallis crew has also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, a genuine recipe for disaster against a mobile but accurate QB like Boise’s Kellen Moore. Oregon State will need a better effort from its offense as well after converting just two of 10 third-down situations against the Cardinals (four of OSU’s fi ve scoring drives began in Louisville territory). If the two-TD-plus number looks a bit tall to you, just remember the Broncos are on a 16-0 SU and 11-4 ATS run – with all four failures coming against WAC opponents. You can be like Mike and leave it to the Beavers if you want but we won’t be bucking these Broncos today.

4* BEST BET Oklahoma over CINCINNATI by 6

Sometimes ‘expectations’ can weigh heavily on a successful program changing head coaches. With Butch Jones taking over for the departed Brian Kelly, the Bearcats entered 2010 with high hopes following a three-year 33-7 SU run and consecutive BCS Bowl appearances. However, things have not gone as planned. UC’s formerly lethal spread offense that ripped through opponents en route to back-toback Big East titles has failed to fi nd a groove against its two FBS foes this season. On Thursday night at NC State, QB Zach Collaros was sacked fi ve times and pressured relentlessly in a 30-19 loss to the Wolfpack. Fortunately, the Bearcats’ offensive line has an extra day of preparation to fi gure out how to protect Collaros today against Oklahoma. But let’s be honest: despite their current Top 10 ranking, the Sooners are simply not the team they were touted to be before the season started. Yes, the OU defense did hold Florida State and Air Force to season-low yards but they allowed over 800 total yards in those two games. With the Falcons rushing 63 times for 351 yards last week (5.6 yards per carry), Oklahoma’s fi rst order of business will be stopping the run – something Cincy will have to establish for Collaros to fi nd any sort of offensive rhythm. Our database likes the Bearcats’ chances. Cincinnati owns a 5-0 ATS mark off a double-digit road loss, a 5-1 ATS record off a Thursday game and a 6-2 ATS log as non-conference dogs of more than 14 points. Equally encouraging is Jones’ 9-3 ATS record at home, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS off a double-digit setback. The hosts also catch Oklahoma with a Texas revenge match on deck (Sooners just 6-12 ATS before hooking up with the ‘Horns). Cincy players who were with the squad in 2008 haven’t forgotten their 52-26 loss to the Sooners in Game Two of the season – the last time the Bearcats were this big an underdog. Expect an all-out effort from Cincinnati today at Paul Brown Stadium.

3* BEST BET FLORIDA ST over Wake Forest by 8

At 11:15 PM last Saturday night, we turned the channel to ESPN2 to watch Wake Forest take on Stanford (the Deacs were a 4* Best Bet in the PLAYBOOK). We may as well have left it on the Spice Channel. Stanford scored more often than a warden in a women’s prison with a handful of pardons. The 68 points the Demon Deacons allowed were the most ever in the Jim Grobe era. We now fi nd Wake in a more comfortable ‘mission revenge dog’ role as the Deacons lost 41-28 as 5-point home chalk to the Seminoles last season. That FSU win broke a series string of three SU Demon wins and fi ve straight ATS covers. We expect the Seminole’s ATS streak to be short-lived as Grobe is a solid 13-5 ATS with revenge off a SU loss while FSU is just 2-8 ATS at home versus a foe with revenge and a naked 0-8 ATS in this series off a double-digit SU win. Let’s also not forget that the dog has absolutely owned this series, winning four of six outright while covering all six on the ATS scoreboard. While’s Wake defense appears far short of previous versions, it should be noted that the Deacons have outscored the Seminoles 42-3 the last two times they have blessed Doak Campbell Stadium. We’ll also spice this one up with this little tidbit: 1st-year coaches are a sinful 29-49 ATS as conference favorites of 16 or more points off a SU win. Where else can you find information like this? Maybe in an episode of ‘Red Shoes Diaries’ – but we’ll leave that for another write-up

5* BEST BET NY Jets over MIAMI by 13

The 3rd of three losing teams last year that have opened up 2-0 in2010, the Dolphins return home off a pair of road victories to host their hated division rivals, a team they’ve won and covered against in each of the last three meetings. So why is it the Fish are looking like dinner tonight? It may have to do with their 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS mark as a host in this series. Or perhaps it’s the Jets’ 14-3 ATS mark as a division road dog in games in which they own a .500 or greater record, including 9-1 ATS when the Flyboys are off a win. The grill really heats up when noting that teams in Game Three playing at home after allowing 10 or less points in each of its fi rst two games are just 2-11 ATS if facing a .500 or greater opponent since 1986, including0-7 ATS when hosting a division rival. And we begin to fi llet with the Dolphins’ 1-15 ATS record at home in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins when the last was straight up as an underdog. Bon appetit!

4* BEST BET San Francisco over KANSAS CITY by 13

Like the Bucs, the Chiefs are another 2-0 wonder that swam in a sea of losers last year. In fact, Todd Haley’s crew brought a 6-35 straight up log in its previous 41 games into the 2010 season. With that we went right to the machine and, lo and behold, here’s what we found: teams in Game Three off back-to-back straight up underdog wins that won fi ve or fewer games last season were just 1-5 SU and ATS, including 0-3 SU and ATS if they were a four or less win squad the previous campaign. While six games is not a large sample, the results speak for themselves. Mike Singletary’s troops, now 0-2 SU but 2-0 ITS, are 7-1 ATS in games versus foes off a non-division game, adding more fuel to the fi re. It’s not all that diffi cult fading a tribe that has won only three of its previous 19 games in its own tee-pee, going 0-10 SU and ATS in that span as a favorite or dog of less than four points. Niners continue to pan for gold and they fi nd it at Arrowhead.

3* BEST BET Pittsburgh over TAMPA BAY by 11

After winning just three of its previous 20 games in straight up fashion, the Bucs have opened the 2010 campaign with a pair of victories. Sure, they may have come against the Browns and Panthers (0-4 combined) but don’t tell Raheem Morris that. While you’re at it, don’t tell him that unrested 2-0 home teams in Game Three that won seven or fewer game last season are just 6-14 ATS, including 3-13 ATS as a favorite or dog of three or less points. With Morris just 1-6-1 ATS in games at Raymond James Stadium and the Bucs just 1-7 SU alltime in this series, look for the Steelers to improve to 5-0 SU and ATS in their last fi ve games against the NFC South. Oh, and that perfect record? Bye, bye Bucs.

ASA

ASA’s CFB Game of the Week

Purdue (-11) over Toledo

The Toledo Rockets are in a bad spot here playing their third straight road game. Not only that, we are catching great value in this line because the Rockets won each of those out right as an underdog. On top of that, the Boilers beat Ball State 24-13 last week but while they were underwhelming on the score board, their offense looked good and put up some very solid numbers. The score vs. Ball State could have been much worse. Because of those factors, the number here is actually lower than it should be and we’ll take advantage of that.
As we mentioned the Rockets are off road wins vs. Ohio (20-13) and Western Michigan (37-24). However, a look at their offensive numbers makes us wonder how they have any wins this season. The UT offense is averaging only 222 TOTAL yards per game on the season (128 passing and 94 rushing). They are averaging only 3.7 yards per play which is 115th nationally (outof 120). In last week’s win over Western Michigan the Rockets were out gained by nearly 150 yards! A week earlier @ Ohio, UT totaled only 212 yards. So you ask, why did they win each of those games? The answer is turnovers. Western Michigan game the ball away a whopping 6 times. A week before the Bobcats gave Toledo 4 turnovers. That’s 10 in just two games. This Toledo team has a “false” 2-1 record right now and their third consecutive weekend away from home shows their true colors.

The Boilers are 2-1 with a loss @ Notre Dame and wins over Western Illinois and Ball State. They haven’t been overly impressive yet last week their offense looked the best it has. Purdue put up 403 total yards (203 rushing and 200 passing) and much was done without starting QB Robert Marve who “tweaked” his knee in the first half. Marve said after the game that he was fine and will be in the line up this week. That’s a situation we’ll have to monitor throughout the week. Marve, the former starter at Miami FL, has been solid in his first year as Purdue’s starter. He has completed nearly 69% of his passes. He should have a field day vs. a Toledo defense that is allowing 317 yards per game through the air (118th nationally). That includes facing an Ohio team that can’t pass the ball. The two other teams they faced lit them up through the air as Arizona rolled up 413 yards passing and Western Michigan threw for 403.

These two have met twice in the last three season with Purdue pounding the Rockets each time (52-24 and 52-31). Toledo is in a terrible spot here and their two wins are against marginal opponents and turnovers were the key issue. Their one game against a solid foe was a 41-2 home loss to Arizona. A game in which the Rockets were out yarded by an incredible 335 yards. Purdue needs a convincing win heading into the Big Ten season and they get it here.

ASA’s CFB Saturday Smasher

Tennessee (-14) over UAB

Tennessee is off of two straight home games against Top-10 opponents. The final score of each game is deceiving considering how well the Vols played for the majority of the games. They held a 13-13 halftime tie with #5 Oregon (lost 13-48), and a 10-10 tie midway through the 3rd quarter with #8 Florida (lost 17-31). UAB is a BIG step down in competition this week and new Vols coach Dooley needs a big win to get some confidence back to his team before next week’s road contest @LSU. Expect Tennessee to get a big win over the mediocre Conference USA opponent.

UAB had a huge come-from-behind win at home last week over Troy. The Blazers overcame deficits of 23-0 in the 2nd quarter and 33-20 with under 9:00 remaining in the game. They inserted back-up quarterback Bryan Ellis midway through the 2nd quarter and he ended up throwing a Hail Mary touchdown with no time remaining on the game-clock to give the Blazers a one-point victory. UAB allowed 416 passing yards and 150 rushing yards to the Trojans and were extremely fortunate to escape with a victory.

Ellis ended up throwing for 360 yards against Troy after replacing the incompetent David Isabelle in the 2nd quarter. Each quarterback has played in every game so far this season and both have struggled. They’ve combined to complete 47 of 90 passes (52%) with 5 touchdowns and 4 picks. Isabelle struggles with accuracy in the passing game but is more of a dual threat quarterback whereas Ellis is the more polished passer. It doesn’t matter who plays against Tennessee because we still believe that the Vols will win in a blowout, but the fact that there is a controversy will make things that much easier for Tennessee.

UAB has played just one road game this season and looked absolutely terrible. They were out-gained by 160 yards and lost, 28-7, at SMU. Isabelle and Ellis were both equally ineffective for the Blazers, managing just 11 first downs and 7 points. UAB is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory.

ASA’s NFL Sunday Totals Titan

Over 44 Total Points - San Diego vs. Seattle

After a rough first week, the Chargers returned to their scoring ways in last weeks 38-13 win over Jacksonville. We liked the under in that game and got burned when Jacksonville scored a TD with 40 seconds remaining in the game to push it over the number. Part of the reason we liked that game under the number was due to the ineptness of Jacksonville’s offense. That thought process changes this week as Seattle’s offense is actually clicking right now and will put points on the board.

Last week’s 31-14 loss @ Denver was a bit deceiving for the Seahawks. They actually moved the ball very well with 340 yards of offense. They were in position to score a number of times but turnovers (4 of them) did Seattle in. Matt Hasselbeck threw three interceptions including TWO inside Denver’s 10-yard line as Seattle was threatening to score. Because of those four turnovers, the Broncos were able to run 73 offensive plays to only 55 for the Seahawks. As we stated, Seattle had plenty of chances with only 55 plays but didn’t capitalize. A week earlier at home, they did capitalize for 31 points on a very solid San Francisco defense. Head coach Pete Carroll has also shown a tendency to pass the ball more often on offense as the Hawks have only run the ball a total of 43 times in their two games. Passing stops the clock, moves the chains more quickly and gives team’s a better chance to have “big plays”. Those types of games definitely favor the over.

Similar to Seattle last week, San Diego’s offense put up nice numbers in week one vs. Kansas City (in really bad weather) but couldn’t put points on the board. They lost the game 21-14, despite putting up nearly 400 yards and holding KC to only 197. Last Sunday that changed as Philip Rivers and company rolled up 38 points. The Charger defense has looked good, however keep in mind they have faced to of the more pedestrian offenses in the NFL (KC & Jax). This is also a team that loves to throw the ball. They did run the ball quite a bit last Sunday, however they had such a big lead on the Jags, they didn’t need to throw it. Passing might be emphasized this week as the Bolts starting RB, Ryan Mathews, went down in an injured ankle yesterday. We’ll keep an eye on his status.

Both teams are playing well on offense. The Chargers lead the league in offensive yards per play at 6.7. The Seahawks are 9th in the NFL at 5.8. Both teams like to throw the ball. This number (currently 44) is too low. We’ll take the OVER here.

POINT TRAIN

College Football Game of the Week

Air Force (-11) over Wyoming

Air Force put a real scare into Oklahoma last week. They racked up 351 rushing yards against Oklahoma’s defense (5.6 yards per carry) and that allowed them to have a +9 time of possession advantage, keeping the explosive Sooners offense off the field. It was a tie-game midway through the 3rd quarter and Air Force only lost by three, 24-27. It was a tough loss, but Air Force has to feel more confident after nearly handing an upset to the nations #9 team on the road.

The high-powered Sooners offense managed just 367 total yards and ended the game with 91 fewer yards than Air Force. OU quarterback Landry Jones was just 26 of 42 passing for 254 yards and one touchdown. The AF defense should have absolutely no problem limiting the Cowboys on offense.

Wyoming’s last two games have done nothing to improve their already thin confidence. They stuck with a struggling Texas offense for a while before the Longhorns got things together, defeating the Cowboys by 27 points. Then Boise State came into town absolutely dismantled the Cowboys, winning by 45 points. Wyoming allowed an average of 519 YPG (221 rush YPG & 298 pass YPG) to Texas and Boise while their offense averaged just 196 total yards. They ran the ball 58 times for a TOTAL of 37 yards.

Despite losing last week, Air Force has to feel good about their performance against the Sooners. There won’t be a letdown here as they still have high hopes in the Mountain West Conference after beating BYU in week two.

Air Force is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Cowboys are just 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and we expect the Falcons to continue that trend on Saturday.