Newsletters 9/30 - 10/5

Nelly's Greensheet

RATING 5 GEORGIA (-2½) over Lsu
RATING 4 UCLA (+6) over Stanford
RATING 3 MARSHALL (+3) over East Carolina
RATING 2 ALABAMA (-17½) over Kentucky
RATING 2 VANDERBILT (+10) over Mississippi
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA (-6½) over Miami
RATING 1 IDAHO (+3½) over Colorado State

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2009

LOUISIANA TECH (-4) Hawaii 7:00 PM
The Bulldogs won eight games last season and projected as a competitive team again this
season but in early non-conference games as appealing underdogs Tech fell well short. The
Bulldogs picked up a win against FCS Nicholls State and they seek to beat Hawaii for the first
time since 2005 in this midweek game. During Hawaii’s 2007 perfect regular season the
Warriors narrowly escaped Ruston with a 45-44 win the last time Tech hosted this match-up.
Hawaii is the top passing offense in the nation in terms of yards per game but Tech’s
opposition has preferred to run the ball this season. This will technically be the third
consecutive road game for Hawaii though they did not play last week. Louisiana Tech has
historically held a great home field advantage in recent years but most of that success has
come in an underdog role. Hawaii may have more wins but Louisiana Tech should be the
superior team and last season despite losing at Hawaii the Bulldogs had good production and
held Hawaii to limited yardage through the air but turnovers proved costly. LA TECH BY 10

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2009

WEST VIRGINIA (-17½) Colorado 6:30 PM
Turnovers killed West Virginia in its last game as they thoroughly out-gained Auburn on the
road before giving the game away late. Through three games and two quality opponents the
Mountaineers have averaged 485 yards per game on offense but they also have one of the
worst turnover margins in the nation. Colorado beat West Virginia last season in Boulder in
overtime in a game where the Mountaineers rushed for 311 yards but scored just 14 points.
Colorado endured a disastrous 0-2 start but the Buffaloes rebounded in its last game with a
shutout win over Wyoming. Statistically Colorado has one of the worst defenses in the nation
and although they have not faced a FCS squad like many teams have they have not faced
any powerhouse major conference programs either. West Virginia should have a big day on
the ground and even though the Mountaineers have suffered from questionable coaching
decisions and turnovers they should be the superior team. WEST VIRGINIA BY 21

Southern Miss (NL) UAB 7:00 PM
The Golden Eagles gave Kansas a run last week as the game was tied late but eventually
Southern Miss faded in a fairly even statistical game. Southern Miss allowed 32 first downs in
the game and this will be difficult second-straight road game following a narrow loss in a big
non-conference game. Southern Miss scored 70 on UAB last season so there is no doubt that
the Blazers will be motivated for a better performance this year. UAB was blown out last week
at Texas A&M although the Blazers rushed for 229 yards in the match-up. UAB had an
encouraging opening win but has now lost three straight games while allowing 480 yards per
game for the season. Southern Miss has a talented team that should be among the
contenders in Conference USA but this looks like a tricky spot, traveling again in a game that
would be easy to overlook after last year’s result and a more distinguished game with
Louisville up next. UAB has posted strong rushing numbers so they could be competitive here
as inflated underdog coming off a bad performance. SOUTHERN MISS BY 10

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2009
Pittsburgh (NL) LOUISVILLE 7:00 PM
Louisville’s offense has fallen on tough times, a far cry from the unit that posted huge numbers
a few years ago. Louisville’s defense has held up well but the Cardinals are scoring less than
24 points per game. Louisville has been on the road against quality competition the last two
weeks and this will be another tough game but back at home. Pittsburgh led by 14 late in the
game last week at NC State but it was a game that the Panthers were thoroughly out-gained
in and eventually the lead slipped away. Pittsburgh won 41-7 at home last season but that
was the only S/U win for the Panthers in this series since ’90. Turnovers were the big factor in
that match-up last season and Pittsburgh has had a big turnov er edge this season through
four games. Although Louisville’s offense has not been productive there has been
disappointing numbers from Pitt as well who seems to be missing the key pieces of the
running game that had great success last season. LOUISVILLE BY 3

BYU (-24½) Utah State 8:00 PM
The Cougars rebounded from their horrible loss to Florida State with a win last week but BYU
was actually out-gained against Colorado State allowing 372 passing yards. Utah State picked
up its first win of the season last week against FCS Souther Utah and though the offense
turned it over three times, the Aggies also had over 600 yards. Utah State gave up at least 34
points for the third straight game however. Last season BYU won 34-14 but Utah State was
able to move the ball effectively in that game. BYU has not performed well in the ATS role as
a favorite and this may be a spread that is too big to surpass. BYU has struggled with
turnovers and defending the pass and Utah State is going to score a few times. BYU BY 21

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2009
South Florida (-7) SYRACUSE 11:00 AM
It looked like an impossible situation with a new QB going against Florida State but the Bulls
capitalized on turnovers and made a few big plays to score an upset and one of the biggest
wins in the program’s history. South Florida’s defense was exceptional against the run but this
could be a very tricky situation coming off such a big win. South Florida has won easily in all
four years in the Big East against Syracuse but so far this year the Orange has shown some
potential. Syracuse has faced a tough opening slate of games and at 2-2 coming off an FCS
win last week this is a team with some confidence. Syracuse has been a difficult team to run
against so inexperienced QB Daniels will have to make some plays this will be a whole new
situation playing in a dome. The Orange has been a quality home underdog in recent years
and the points make sense in this letdown spot. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 6

East Carolina (-3) MARSHALL 11:00 AM
The Pirates hung on for a win last week in a sloppy game but East Carolina is yet to cover in a
game this season. Marshall is now quietly 3-1 after back-to-back excellent defensive
performances. For the second straight week the Thundering Herd put over 240 rushing yards
while allowing 16 points or less. That formula would be a great recipe for success in
Conference USA and the Herd will face a favorable conference schedule. During East
Carolina’s run to the conference title last season, a 19-16 OT win over Marshall was one of
several narrow wins for the Pirates. The home team has had success in this series and
Marshall has been a high quality home underdog in recent years covering in ten of the last
twelve instances. This is the homecoming game for Marshall and ECU may not be able to
sneak out this win coming in a third road game in four weeks. MARSHALL BY 4

PURDUE (-7) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Both teams played well enough to win last week but were bitten by late rallies. The loser of
this game will be in rough shape with some of the tougher games ahead on the schedule.
Northwestern covered in all three games as road underdogs last season and the Wildcats
soundly defeated Purdue last year winning 48-26 although Purdue produced more yards.
Defensively Northwestern has much better numbers but Purdue has faced a far tougher
schedule and there will be some extra excitement in West Lafayette for the Big Ten opener
that is also homecoming. Although Purdue has only won once they have been more
impressive outside of the upset loss to Northern Illinois as Notre Dame and Oregon will likely
have impressive resumes by season’s end. Purdue has featured better balance on offense
this season as Northwestern has been one-dimensional and the defensive numbers for the
Wildcats are watered down with a dominant effort against FCS Towson. PURDUE BY 10

MINNESOTA (-2½) Wisconsin 11:00 AM
Wisconsin is now 4-0 and after three uninspiring wins the Badgers finally put together a strong
overall performance last week for a win that was not as close as the final margin suggests. On
the other hand Minnesota added a late score to inflate what was a hard fought road win. This
will be the first Big Ten game at the Bank and Minnesota has battled through a tough early
season schedule and is sitting in good shape with a 3-1 record. Having already played two
outstanding rushing teams should help the Gophers defensively and Wisconsin has shown
some weaknesses in defending the pass. Minnesota can feature a great air attack and the
running game showed some promise last week as well. Last year star WR Decker missed this
game for Minnesota yet the Gophers nearly pulled off the upset falling by just three. Three of
the last four years of this long rivalry have featured great games but this looks like a spot
where the Badgers may be exposed and a match-up where Minnesota can take advantage of
a few opportunities while catching an overrated Badger squad. MINNESOTA BY 10

WAKE FOREST (PK) NC State 2:30 PM
These teams both led fourth quarter rallies last week but only one team was victorious as NC
State posted huge numbers to win last week at home and Wake Forest lost in OT. After
horrendous offensive numbers in the opening week the Wolfpack have turned into a
juggernaut with 148 points scored in the last three games. NC State has the top statistical
defense in the nation allowing just 201 yards per game but two games came against FCS
competition. NC State won 21-17 at home last season against Wake Forest with a comeback
win but the Demon Deacons won easily the last time these teams met in Winston-Salem.
Wake Forest has had success in this series and the recent numbers as home favorites are
actually favorable even though going back a few years further there are some ugly trends for
Wake in that role. Defensively Wake is allowing just over 18 points per game while playing
three of four games against high quality bowl caliber opponents. WAKE BY 6

Clemson (-14) MARYLAND 11:00 AM
Maryland’s loss at home last week was not as bad as the 21-point margin suggests but the
numbers do not lie as the Terps are allowing 38 points per game. Maryland has turned the ball
over 13 times in four games and that has been a key difference from a team that won several
close games last year. Clemson is 2-2 but there have been no easy games on the schedule
and the Tigers blew out a Middle Tennessee State team that beat Maryland two weeks ago.
Clemson had its chances to win last week but ultimately fell short. The Clemson defense
should dominate this match-up and although the offense has struggled the last two weeks the
conditions have played a significant role. Maryland has not come close to covering this
season and they are too mistake-prone to trust. CLEMSON BY 21

NORTH CAROLINA (-14) Virginia 11:00 AM
Virginia led a miraculous comeback last year to win in a series they have had recent
dominance in. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this game while UNC looks to
regroup after a dismal performance in Atlanta where the team produced a total of just eight
first downs. The Cavaliers are 0-3 so this will be a critical game and although UNC is a well
regarded squad but the offensive numbers have been poor with only 307 yards per game
including two games with twelve or fewer points scored. The Tar Heels have performed well at
home and this is not a Virginia squad that has exhibited much ability to score against a quality
defense. Expect the Heels to get revenge and redeem last week’s poor effort. UNC BY 17

Florida State (-5) BOSTON COLLEGE 11:00 AM
Florida State has been incredibly inconsistent as they are 2-2 but own one of the most
impressive wins of the season in a destruction of BYU two weeks ago. FSU should have beat
Miami in the opener but they have had two awful letdown performances following big games,
nearly losing to Jacksonville State and last week being upset at home against South Florida
and a QB making his first ever start. The defensive numbers are mostly good for the
Seminoles but they have been burned by allowing big plays. Boston College lacks a big play
offense and the Eagles still have major questions at QB but BC is 3-1 coming off a big win last
week at home. The home team has failed to cover each of the last four years in this series
and Boston College has overvalued defensive statistics. BC beat two weak opponents
soundly and then played Clemson in game with awful weather before last week’s narrow
escape. Florida State has really not proven they can get it done. FSU BY 3

Central Michigan (-8½) BUFFALO 2:30 PM
The Chippewas took care of business in the opening MAC game, delivering an impressive
ground effort with 326 yards. Last season Central Michigan snuck by Buffalo for a 2-point
victory in an evenly matched game but the Chippewas look like the stronger squad this
season. Buffalo had an impressive road win to start the season but has now lost three in a row
S/U and ATS. The Bulls out-gained their opponent significantly in two of those three losses
but Buffalo has been falling behind early and forcing the ball in the air. Central Michigan will
have the advantage if this game becomes a shootout and the Bulls are surprisingly just 2-6
ATS in the last eight home games. Buffalo has played a tough schedule and this will be just
the second home game but the inability to run the ball and stop the run should allow Central
Michigan to pull away for a critical road win in conference play . CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 14

Toledo (-7) BALL STATE 11:00 AM
Toledo has played an extremely tough schedule and is 2-2 despite being an underdog in all
four games. The Rockets are averaging 473 yards per game but the defens e is also allowing
nearly 40 points per game. Ball State had an undefeated regular season last year but now is
on its way to a winless season with a 0-4 start. Ball State also has terrible defensive numbers
but with the exception of the last game against Auburn the Cardinals have played a fairly
weak schedule. Turnovers have been a big issue for Ball State but the pass defense has been
respectable, in part because they have been easy to run against. Ball State beat Toledo 31-0
last season, out-gaining the Rockets by 325 yards but this year Toledo looks like the more
promising team. Ball State has covered the last two weeks and this could be a bad spot for
Toledo facing a second straight road games and likely playing as a significant road favorite
despite serious defensive liabilities. Ball State clearly has some problems and it has been a
slow transition but there has been improvement shown. TOLEDO BY 7

Alabama (-17½) KENTUCKY 11:20 AM
The Crimson Tide stay in the top three as several teams nearby in the ranking lost last week
and it could be argued that Alabama has the best four-game resume in the nation including
two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Arkansas. Alabama has not played on the road
yet and they will play the same match-up that #1 Florida had no problem with last week. Last
season Alabama barely got by Kentucky, winning 17-14 but the statistical edges were
significant. Last week’s poor effort for Kentucky came on the heels of a big rivalry win so a
better effort could be in order this week. The Tide has performed as road favorites and the
one missed cover for Alabama was still a 24-point win that was never in question. Kentucky
had less than 180 yards on offense last week and Alabama’s defense looks just as strong as
Florida’s and statistically it has been almost identical through a higher quality schedule. Look
for Alabama to keep earning respect in the polls and Kentucky will have a hard time staying
close in this game as they will be forced to pass early and often. Alabama could make a
strong case for being the top team in the nation and it would be wise to avoid trying to beat the
Tide until they show more vulnerability. ALABAMA BY 27

Mississippi (-10) VANDERBILT 6:00 PM
Ole Miss lost as the #4 team in the nation last week but the Rebels got that ranking based on
expectations and not on actual merit. Mississippi has solid defensive numbers but they have
played just three games and they will now face a second straight road game coming off a
disappointing primetime loss. Vanderbilt rebounded from back-to-back disappointing losses to
get back to 2-2 with a win at Rice but the Commodores have really struggled to score against
SEC competition with twelve points in two games. Vanderbilt has some of the best defensive
numbers against the pass this season and though the opposition has factored into that the Ole
Miss offense has not been smooth operation so far this season despite the returning talent in
place. Ole Miss has covered just once in the last ten meetings in this series so it could be a
difficult situation. Ole Miss was facing national expectations and to have an early season loss
could take a lot out of this team. Vanderbilt has beat Ole Miss each of the last two seasons
S/U and QB Snead had four picks in this game last year. OLE MISS BY 3

Cincinnati (-27½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
These nearby schools have gone in opposite directions in recent years and Cincinnati has
rightfully risen in the standings with a 4-0 start. Cincinnati is averaging 43 points per game
while allowing just 14 points per game three of the four games have come against quality
opponents, with two games played on the road. Last week Fresno State rushed for 290 yards
against the Bearcats and Cincinnati has also benefited from a great turnover margin so there
are still some concerns with this team. Against Miami it is unlikely that there will be much of a
struggle however as the Redhawks are 0-4 while allowing over 41 points per game and failing
to cover in all four games. A big conference game against South Florida is on the schedule
next but there still is enough of a regional rivalry to keep the intensity level high for this matchup.
Cincinnati has won by 25 and 37 the past two years in this series and Miami is just 4-12
ATS in the last 16 lined home games. Miami has the worst turnover margin in the nation with
16 giveaways and only three takeaways so if the turnover numbers bounce Miami will have a
chance to stay close here but Cincinnati has too explosive of an offense to try to beat in what
should be a mismatch if the Bearcats come into the game motivated. CINCINNATI BY 31

Temple (-5) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
In a valiant effort against Michigan two weeks ago Eastern Michigan QB Andy Schmitt was
injured and he will be unable to finish the season. Eastern Michigan is 0-3 on the season and
the rest of the season will be an even greater challenge although there should be some more
even match-ups coming in conference play. Eastern Michigan currently owns the #1 pass
defense in the nation but is meaningless as the Eagles have faced three teams that have
preferred to run and running on EMU has not been difficult. Temple opened the season with a
loss to Villanova that may look bad to an outside observer but the Wildcats should be one of
the top FCS teams and could probably compete well in the MAC. The Owls played
respectably against Penn State and everything came together last week for a big revenge win
against Buffalo. Temple caught breaks with turnovers last week but they also had great
success moving the ball on the ground which should make for a favorable match-up this week.
Eastern Michigan is just 4-11 ATS in the past 15 home games but the Eagles will catch value
this week facing a Temple team off a misleading big win. TEMPLE BY 3

ARMY (-6) Tulane 11:00 AM
Army looked like a dangerous underdog last week against Iowa State but despite an even
statistical performance the Cadets were 21-point losers. Army’s rushing attack has posted
strong numbers and with two wins early in the year and a favorable schedule ahead this is a
team with bowl potential. Tulane was caught in mismatches to start the season losing badly to
BYU and Tulsa but last week the Wave got in the win column with a win over McNeese State.
Tulane won by ten on the scoreboard but allowed 473 yards. Tulane has allow ed 41 points
and 470 yards per game for the season and this will be the first road game of the season so
the early results have not been promising. Army is a difficult team to trust as a favorite
however as the one-dimensional offense is not likely to create quick scores or big plays. In
four games Army has averaged just 20 points per game which makes covering as a favorite
difficult even if the defense plays well. Both of Army’s wins came against MAC teams and this
should be a small step up in competition. ARMY BY 3

Virginia Tech (-17) DUKE 11:00 AM
The Hokies reaffirmed their position as the team to beat in the ACC even though some other
squads had seemingly gained some ground. Tech was completely dominant against Miami
last week and with the only loss being a competitive effort against Alabama, the Hokies can
make a solid case as a top ranked team. Virginia Tech will be favored in every game the rest
of the way and the Hokies do not have to play Florida State or Clemson in a very favorable
ACC schedule. This could be a bit of a flat spot following a big game but last season Duke
played close with Virginia Tech and the Blue Devils will not be overlooked. Duke won last
week against FCS NC Central and some decent statistical figures from the Devils should not
be give too much weight as two lower division foes have been among the four games played.
Alabama and Nebraska had success against the Hokies on the ground but Duke is not a
quality rushing team which will make this a difficult match-up. Even though Duke should have
trouble competing here, the Blue Devils have made a lot of progress from a few years ago and
this will be an inflated line after the Hokies crushed a Miami team that the media was
enamored with. If Duke can avoid turnovers they will likely stay close. VIRGINIA TECH BY 14

NOTRE DAME (-13½) Washington 2:30 PM
The Irish creamed Washington last season in a game that was more lopsided than the final
score probably represented as the yardage margin was 335 and Washington’s lone
touchdown came with just a few minutes to go. Things have changed this year however and
Washington has already done the one thing that Notre Dame has not been able to do in
recent years by beating USC. Notre Dame won on the ground in last year’s game and they
may need to do so again this week as the passing game appeared limited by the injuries last
week in a narrow escape. It has been three straight weeks of down to the wire games for the
Irish it given the health issues already present this could be a tough week for the team.
Washington letdown true to form last week against Stanford and turnovers and an inability to
stop the run proved costly. Statistically Washington has struggled on defense but the Huskies
have also played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. Washington has lost five in a row in
this series but this looks like a good bounce back opportunity and Notre Dame has struggled
as a small favorite in recent years particularly at home. NOTRE DAME BY 7

GEORGIA (-2½) Lsu 2:30 PM
Like Mississippi last week, LSU has risen to the top 5 in the rankings without much weight in
its resume. LSU has won both of its road games this season but they have failed to cover and
actually have been severely out-gained in both instances. Last week LSU had a 4-0 turnover
edge but gained just 12 first downs and needed a miraculous goal line stand to hold of
Mississippi State. This will be a second straight week on the road and the offense has not
been able to deliver consistent results. Last week QB Jordan Jefferson had a career best
passing day but it is telling that he had just 233 yards and this Tigers offense is not close to
the national championship teams of years past. Georgia has played a simply insane schedule
with SEC games under its belt and two marquee major conference non-conference games.
The Bulldogs already have a loss and the statistics have not been pretty but this is a team that
is more battle tested than just about any team in the country. Last season Georgia won in a
shootout and if that time of game ensues again the Bulldogs have the edge. GEORGIA BY 14

NAVY (NL) Air Force 2:30 PM
Navy has had much more recent success in this series but it has often been in an underdog
role. The opening effort against Ohio State has left Navy a bit overvalued since and Navy has
failed to cover the last two weeks. Without QB Jefferson last week the Falcons won with ease
although the defense created most of the big plays with six turnovers. Air Force had a huge
yardage edge in last season’s game yet lost by six so this will be a paybac k game even with
the long travel. Air Force has not played a tough schedule but this has been a very good
defensive team that could have some advantages this week although the offense will be
suspect unless the QB situation is back to normal. Navy struggled to pull away from Western
Kentucky last week and the defense has some clear problems up front. AIR FORCE BY 4

Georgia Tech (-4½) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
Last week Mississippi State had a highly ranked LSU team on the ropes and fell just short but
it has been back-to-back encouraging efforts from this Bulldogs squad. LSU crushed Georgia
Tech in last year’s bowl game though it makes little sense to compare those situations. The
Yellow Jackets played their best game of the season last week in a dominant w in over North
Carolina and turnovers shaped some of the early momentum in that game. Georgia Tech has
Florida State up next and so far this is a team that has not been able to sustain consistent
efforts week -to-week. Georgia Tech is going to have success running the ball but efforts of the
MSU defense have been noticed as LSU had just 30 yards on the ground and could not move
the ball late with an opportunity to seal the game. Two weeks ago Vanderbilt has just 33 yards
rushing as the Bulldogs have addressed the problems they had against Auburn. In a
misleading final Tech won 38-7 last year but MSU had 23 first downs in the game and lost
with four turnovers despite 407 yards. Expect a close game here. GEORGIA TECH BY 3

Oklahoma (-6½) MIAMI, FL 11:00 AM
The U was supposedly back but Virginia Tech still owns the ACC as Miami looked much less
impressive with constant pressure. Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game
and though the QB situation is murky still, this game will be about defense. Value w ill be gone
on the Sooners after an overrated Miami team was exposed last week but for the season
Oklahoma has allowed just 14 points for the top scoring defense in the nation. The offense for
the Sooners will face a stiffer test this week but Miami has been mediocre at best on defense
with one good game and two lousy defensive efforts, albeit through a very tough schedule.
Two years ago Oklahoma cruised to a 51-13 win in Norman against Miami. The Hurricanes
had just 139 yards in that game and it will be tough to move the ball this week. Miami is just 2-
8 ATS in the last ten home games while Oklahoma has been a startlingly strong road favorite
the past two years. Miami got its wake-up call last week but this is a team that is still vastly
overrated while Oklahoma is hungry for a big win that will get some attention on the national
picture. Miami is facing a big scheduling disadvantage with all the big games early while OU
has been keying in on this opportunity since the opening loss while playing with two weeks to
prepare specifically for this game. OKLAHOMA BY 7

Penn State (-6½) ILLINOIS 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions were supposed to be the savior for a weak Big Ten but that baton was
passed to Iowa as the Lions were upset in rough weather at home. Illinois was expected to the
be the sleeper team in the conference but so far the Illini can make a strong case as the
biggest disappointment in the nation with lopsided losses in its two biggest games. Even in its
FCS win Illinois allowed a lot of yardage and this has been a poor defensive team that has
completely failed on offense after a highly productive but losing 2008 season. Illinois has been
a dangerous underdog in recent years and Penn State could suffer a letdown from losing its
undefeated season. This will be the first road game of the year for Penn State and the Lions
are 0-4 ATS on the season and the strong statistics came against a very weak nonconference
schedule. It is very tough to trust Illinois here as they have shown absolutely
nothing this season but the two big losses both came away from home and this could be a
favorable situation if the team has any life left. Penn State will likely still get a lot of play this
week even though they have proved nothing this season. ILLINOIS BY 4

Michigan (PK) MICHIGAN STATE 11:00 AM
The Wolverines got all it could handle as a big favorite against Illinois last week and this will
be the first trip away from Ann Arbor all season for a very young team. The Michigan defense
can clearly be scored upon but the offense has been able to do enough to win while averaging
240 rushing yards per game. After a great 2008 season Michigan State is sitting at 1-3 and
the schedule is not getting any easier. The Spartans won in Ann Arbor last season dominating
the statistics but it was the first win in this series since ’01. While the Wolverines were
impressive in non-conference play they struggled in the Big Ten opener and are just 1-7 ATS
the past eight conference games. The QB situation has been much more promising for the
Wolverines but there were some mistakes last week and this is a team that is still reliant on
the running game. The Spartans could not stop Wisconsin on the ground last week and
Michigan appears to be in position for a rebound after surviving last week. Last week’s loss for
Michigan State was not as close as the final margin suggested. MICHIGAN BY 7

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6½) Western Michigan 2:30 PM
Northern Illinois fell into a classic letdown last week as they could not sustain the momentum
after upsetting Purdue. Idaho is a greatly improved team but the Huskies fell behind early and
were completely outplayed at home. Another home opportunity is waiting this week and this
will be a key battle in the MAC standings as these are the two teams most likely to unseat the
favorite Central Michigan in the West. After losses to two Big ten teams Western Michigan has
had back-to-back wins and the Broncos can put up big numbers in the air which should be a
concern after Idaho passed with great efficiency last week. Northern Illinois should be the
superior rushing team which may be a key advantage for a home underdog. NIU has had
great success in this series, covering in nine of the last eleven meetings and the Western
defense had trouble containing Hofstra last week so there could be some issues. NIU BY 7

BOWLING GREEN (-2½) Ohio 3:00 PM
The Bobcats gave Tennessee a tough game last week and this could be a tough situation
facing another road game and going against a Bowling Green team hungry for a win after
three consecutive losses. The Falcons have played a tough schedule and few teams have
been able to compete with Boise State. Ohio’s wins came against a Cal-Poly team going
through transition and a North Texas team that lost its QB but the losses have been
impressive, staying close with Connecticut earlier this season as well. This will be the third
road game in four weeks however and Bowling Green has won and covered in six of the last
seven meetings. Last season the Falcons severely out-gained the Bobcats for an easy win
and Bowling Green could be undervalued coming off a blowout loss. Both teams have failed to
rush the ball effectively this year and Ohio may be out of gas even though the Bobcats have
shown more potential and probably will be the better team . BOWLING GREEN BY 7

NEVADA (-4) Unlv 3:05 PM
Last week the Wolf Pack played as rare underdogs that severely out-rushed its opponent but
lost and failed to cover, at home no less. Nevada is 0-3 in a season that had fairly high
expectations but the schedule has been tough and the conference season is still wide open.
UNLV has played three consecutive nail-bitter games and the Rebels have come up short in
two of those three games including the conference opener last week. Nevada has won and
covered each of the last four meetings between these teams and last year the Wolf Pack
posted over 600 yards in the game. Although Nevada missed the cover last week they are 19-
8-1 at home since ’04 and UNLV will have a hard time playing another big game on the road.
Nevada has given up serious passing yardage this season but the defense does get pressure
on the quarterback and can force some mistakes in a favorable match-up. NEVADA BY 10

Colorado State (-3½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
Reputation makes the Rams a favorite in this match-up but Idaho has been the more
impressive team. Colorado State did out-gain BYU in a loss last week and the Rams have
solid wins over Nevada and Colorado on the season. Colorado State allowed a lot of yards
however and this will be the second straight week on the road while coming off a big
conference opener. Idaho is now 3-1 and although it has not been an overwhelming schedule
the Vandals have a pretty good team this year. QB play is the best it has been in years and
two of the three wins came in road games, something almost unthinkable in past seasons.
Colorado State has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites while Idaho has
gone 8-2 in the last ten as underdogs. Idaho has featured an impressive passing offense while
holding its own on defense. Idaho is 4-0 ATS on the season and Colorado State could get
caught looking ahead to Utah the following week as Idaho is a program that has had little
recent success. This will be a huge opportunity for Idaho with a nationally televised game at
home and the Vandals will deliver. IDAHO BY 7

Iowa State (-3) Kansas State @Kansas City, MO 2:00 PM
Kansas State features an attractive schedule this season but the Wildcats have not proven
good enough to take advantage as there are already two losses on the board. Iowa State is
very quietly 3-1 and the loss to Iowa seems forgivable at this point. The Cyclones have been
solid on defense and in the one loss they were burned by turnovers. ISU is also rushing for
207 yards per game which should pay dividends in the Big XII schedule. K-State is allowing
just 16 points per game but the schedule has featured two FCS foes and a Sun Belt team that
actually beat the Wildcats. Kansas State won in this series last season by eight but the
Cyclones posted 628 yards in that game but a 3-0 turnover margin proved costly. This year’s
game will be at a neutral site in Kansas City and Iowa State fans should be well represented
as it is just about a three hour trip from Ames, only slightly further than from Manhattan. This
looks like a better scheduling spot for the Cyclones who may be the better team anyhow. As
Kansas State has inflated statistics. IOWA STATE BY 10

ARIZONA STATE (-4½) Oregon State 6:00 PM
Both Pac-10 squads were losers last week in close games and Oregon State was a two-point
winner in this series last season. The ASU passing game has been very inefficient this season
but the Sun Devil defense has impressed. A weak early season schedule created great
numbers on defense for ASU but last week’s effort against Georgia backed up that this is
going to be a tough team to score on as the Bulldogs were held in check. The ASU offense
has done little however, even in two light early season games and the Sun Devils have been
fortunate with the top turnover margin in the nation. Oregon State has now lost two straight
games, both at home where there used to be a dominant home field edge. OSU has a strong
rush defense but this is a team that has been unreliable and actually are very close to being
on a 3-game win streak as they were lucky to beat UNLV. Arizona State has had great
success in this series and last week’s commendable effort against a quality SEC team should
build some confidence. ASU has also been an exceptional home favorite in recent years while
the Beavers are facing long trav el after a tough loss. ARIZONA STATE BY 7

OREGON (-31) Washington State 8:15 PM
In one of the more shocking results of the week Oregon crushed a Cal team that was gaining
a serious national buzz. The Ducks have played an incredibly tough schedule and an ugly
opening loss may pay dividends as it all came together last week. Oregon has disappointed
offensively but the Ducks posted over 500 yards last week in a complete rout of the Bears.
Expecting a repeat gem performance is asking a lot but Washington State is a good foe to
improve on offensive statistics. The Cougars played very respectably against USC last week
to easily cover despite minimal offensive output. The defense was not a complete sieve as in
the past so there were some encouraging signs. Statistically there is little to like about what
the Cougars have done and Oregon has proven to have an excellent home field in any
situation. Oregon will be overvalued off such a convincing win but Washington State may also
get a little more respect this week as well. Oregon has seen some tough stretches on defense
but this is a team on the rise that should see the numbers climb. OREGON BY 35

BAYLOR (NL) Kent State 6:00 PM
After a rough loss against Connecticut, Baylor rebounded with a blowout win last week,
dominating both sides of the ball against Northwestern State. Kent pulled away for a win and
cover last week but the Flashes were out-gained 552-250 against Miami, Ohio. Kent
completed just five passes last week but also picked up five turnovers and received a kickoff
return touchdown. Statistically few teams have been as bad on offense as Kent, scoring just
17 points per game and producing just 268 yards per game. The schedule has not been
exceptionally difficult either as there have been three home games. Baylor plays Oklahoma
next but this is not a program that can overlook a win opportunity. The Bears failed in their last
attempt as home favorites but that has been a profitable role in recent years while Kent has
struggled in almost every situation away from home. Baylor needs to win big in a game like
this to prove it has taken the next step and Kent should struggle to keep up. Baylor is a
difficult team to pass against and the Bears are coming off a great performance on both sides
of the ball last week but QB Griffin’s injury makes this tough. BAYLOR BY 24

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-8) Memphis 2:30 PM
Central Florida has covered in every game this season and this is a sound defensive team
that is allowing just over 21 points per game. Memphis is just 1-3 with a lone FCS win and the
Tigers are yet to cover in a game this season. Central Florida has won S/U in this series each
of the last five years and but the Knights have scored 26 points or more in each of those
meetings, something they have done just once all season. Memphis has not been a great
defensive team in recent years but this is a squad that normally can score some points and
that may happen as the schedule plays out the next few weeks. UCF is already 0-2 in
conference play so this will be a critical gam e but the Knights are not an easy team to trust
laying points at home and Central Florida was fortunate to cover last week with a late score in
game they never were a serious threat in. Middle Tennessee and Marshall are teams that are
better than the current projections suggest so Memphis may not be that bad. UCF BY 6

STANFORD (-6) Ucla 2:30 PM
With Cal getting wiped out last week the door is open for UCLA to take charge in the Pac -10.
Stanford also is a threat, already with a 2-0 conference record. The Bruins have been a very
effective defensive team with only 38 points scored upon them in three games and all three
games have come against decent quality competition. The Bruins have had shaky offensive
play and the QB situation is still less than ideal with Kevin Prince possibly still out. Stanford is
one of the top rushing teams in the nation but the schedule has not featured a high quality
defense yet. The Cardinal has also featured strong special team play which is often an
overlooked area. Stanford has now covered in eight consecutive home games with last week’s
win over Washington and UCLA has not had a lot of success in this series despite some
recent down years from the Cardinal. Last season UCLA won 23-20, scoring with ten seconds
to go in the game, so this could be a revenge spot for the Cardinal, but UCLA is in a favorable
position coming off a bye week before the conference opener. UCLA BY 3

TEXAS TECH (-35) New Mexico 2:30 PM
The Red Raiders let one slip away last week for a second straight loss and the opportunity is
there for a blowout win to get back on track this week. New Mexico is going through an
extreme transition and the Lobos have lost S/U and ATS in all four games this season. Last
week the Lobos lost at home against New Mexico State despite a big yardage edge in the
match-up. New Mexico is gaining 262 yards per game while allowing 421 yards per game and
if the Red Raiders are motivated the passing game should have a field day. Texas Tech has
been a solid home favorite in past years even with some inflated spreads and there may be a
little value back on TT with the losses the past two weeks. Texas Tech has had to play on the
road the last two weeks and being back at home should provide a boost. TEXAS TECH BY 42

Ohio State (-16½) INDIANA 6:00 PM
Since losing the big game to USC, Ohio State has outscored opponents 68-0 in two games as
the defense has really stepped up. Indiana has scored 26 points over the last four meetings
between these teams but the Hoosiers played commendably last week against Michigan in a
narrow loss. Although Indiana has needed great finishes in a few of their unimpressive wins,
they have now out-gained its opponent in every single game this year. The Hoosiers are also
perfect ATS on the season. Ben Chappell’s completion percentage has been far superior to
Terrelle Pryor’s and the Hoosiers have had a decent running game. Michigan eventually got
some yardage against Indiana on the ground last week but it took 50 carries as Indiana’s run
defense has been a strong point. Ohio State has had overwhelming success in this series
while Indiana has been worthless as a home underdog. OHIO STATE BY 24

Tulsa (-14) RICE 6:30 PM
The Golden Hurricane have delivered three dominant wins and one blowout loss and last year
even in Rice’s strong season Tulsa beat the Owls 63-28. The passing numbers for Tulsa have
been much stronger as Rice has battled through injuries with three quarterbacks already
seeing time. Rice is 9-3 in the last twelve games as home underdogs but the Owls failed in
that position last week. It has been a far more difficult schedule for the Owls but statistically
the defense has been terrible and the offense has dropped considerably from last season.
Rice has had trouble protecting the QB with over three sacks allowed per game, part of the
reason for the banged up backfield. Tulsa will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks
but the Hurricane has already won and covered twice as road favorites. TULSA BY 17

Arkansas (-1) Texas A&M @Irving, TX 6:30 PM
The schedule has been light but Texas A&M is off to a 3-0 start and the Aggies technically
own the most productive offense in the nation. The defense is putting great pressure on
opposing QBs and there has been a balance on offense that will make the Aggies a serious
threat in the Big XII after years of irrelevance. This will be the first game away from home and
though Arkansas has lost the last two games the Razorbacks should benefit from already
having played two big conference games before entering this stage. In great contrast to past
teams, Arkansas is one of the top passing offenses in the nation and the defensive numbers
should be measured in terms of already faced two high caliber opponents. This will be a
critical game for Arkansas as the rest of the early season schedule is challenging and the
Razors. Siding with the SEC usually makes sense in these types of match-ups although taking
the passing team over the rushing team has some risks. ARKANSAS BY 7

TENNESSEE (-2) Auburn 6:45 PM
Take away the big opening win and Tennessee is a team that is really struggling to put points
on the board. Auburn failed to cover a monster spot last week but the Tigers added to the
great rushing and scoring numbers. The Tigers have not yet played a road game this season
and they have failed to cover in each of the last six away games. Tennessee has had some
recent success in this series but this will be a critical battle between two new SEC coaches.
Auburn has won S/U the last two years but Tennessee has covered in both games. The Vols
have played the tougher schedule and Auburn should have lost to West Virginia and after four
at home the Tigers could get a reality check against a superior defensive team that needs to
win a major game after failing the first two tries. Auburn’s rushing attack will slow here and the
QB mistakes Tennessee has had could occur for the Tigers as well. TENNESSEE BY 7

Usc (-5½) CALIFORNIA 7:00 PM
Both teams have losses already as the early Pac -10 standings feature several other teams in
the lead. This is still a huge showdown though a bit less meaningful after USC was upset and
Cal was embarrassed last week. Cal has had success in this series but the Bears have not
been a great home underdog and it is hard to tell how a team will react to such a bad loss.
USC has now failed to cover in three straight games and even with QB Barkley back last week
the offense showed signs of weakness as there were only modest yardage edges against
lowly Washington State. USC’s defense still owns dominating numbers and the emotional
state for the Bears has to be questioned at this point. Wins over Maryland and Minnesota do
not look overly impressive at this point and USC has already played two tough road games
this season and that experience should pay off. Cal never can quite get over the hump and
this appears to be another spot to fall just short. USC BY 3

TCU (-27½) Smu 7:00 PM
The Horned Frogs have an elite defense but this could be a scary match-up. TCU just won at
Clemson in a hard fought game that was critical for the season success. Now they must face
an all-out pass attack that will run the secondary up and down the field. You have to be a
pretty bad team to lose to Washington State but the Mustangs were in position to win that
game on the road and could easily be 3-0. This is an improved Mustangs team that will find
ways to get on the scoreboard. TCU has played well in the heavy favorite role but SMU has
had two weeks to prepare for this game and TCU has big Mountain West games in the near
future with the stake in the season elevated with two big non-conference wins versus the ACC
to start the year. Last year TCU won in a blowout but SMU had covered the previous two
seasons and the Horned Frogs have not been truly tested on offense yet in a situation where
they need to score some serious points in a higher scoring game. TCU BY 21

SAN DIEGO STATE (-16½) New Mexico State 7:00 PM
The Aztecs are just 1-3 but all three losses came on the road and there have been some
encouraging signs. Former New Mexico coach Rocky Long is now on the SDSU staff so he
will be familiar with New Mexico State who is also going through transition. San Diego State
has not often been favored recently but they have performed well in those situations and New
Mexico State has been a dreadful offensive team so far this season. The Aggies are barely
scoring 14 points per game and last week’s win over New Mexico was extremely fortunate as
there was a large yardage deficit. This will be the second straight week on the road for the
Aggies and coming off a big win this could be a bad spot. SAN DIEGO ST BY 21

Houston (-16) UTEP 8:00 PM
The Cougars are now getting serious press as a potential BCS buster but they were very
fortunate to win last week and this is a team that has disappointed in seemingly easy games
in past years. UTEP is 1-3 and the Miners were crushed at Texas last week and it has been a
disappointing showing so far for a team that was expected to be one of the best in C-USA.
Value on UTEP is available but the statistics all around have been horrendous. Both teams
have been out-rushed in every game this season and Houston is 2-7 ATS in the past nine
road games. UTEP has lost badly in both home games this season and last year Houston
scored a narrow win in a game that they had 710 yards. It is hard to see where UTEP makes
stops in this game but Houston will get its best effort and the Cougars are overvalued based
on two wins, one that came in an incredibly favorable spot and the other that required a
miraculous comeback drive. HOUSTON BY 13

IOWA (-21) Arkansas State 11:00 AM
Look for Iowa to give a dud performance this week coming off a huge win over Penn State.
Iowa is 3-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite since ’06 and Arkansas State is one of the top
teams in the Sun Belt, narrowly missing knocking out the favorite Troy last week. Arkansas
State rushes for 190 yards per game and the opportunities will be there this week. Iowa plays
Michigan next week making this a very tough sandwich game to get up for and it will be a
huge opportunity for a Red Wolves team that has scored some big upsets in past years
including beating Texas A&M last season. Iowa’s 4-0 start has come with significant turnover
help and very limited offensive production so this will be a tough team to trust laying a big
number, particularly in a challenging situation. IOWA BY 13

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-3) Wyoming 3:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 despite being one of the better Sun Belt squads in recent years.
Wyoming pulled out a narrow win last week while FAU was on the losing end of a close game
despite a significant yardage edge. Although the Owls lost last week the opening two losses
should be excused as high quality competition was in place. This will be the type of upset
opportunity that has suited Florida Atlantic in recent seasons. Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS in the
last 21 as road games and the Cowboys are scoring just 17 points per game with limited
yardage production. For the year Wyoming has been out-gained by almost 100 yards per
game despite being 2-2. Wyoming failed to score in its only road game this season and this
seems like a good spot to fade the Cowboys against a desperate 0-3 squad. Florida Atlantic is
well coached and there are some quality players in place for a team that has recovered from
slow starts in past years as well. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 7

UL-MONROE (-3½) Florida International 2:30 PM
Monroe has won and covered the last three years in this series and despite playing three of
four on the road to open the year the Warhawks have two wins. FIU is still winless and they
failed in what seemed to be an opportune situation at home. The Panthers have been a solid
ATS road team the past two years and but he passing game has been very inefficient so far
this season. FIU is allowing 492 yards per game and this will be a third road games in four
contests for the Panthers. FIU has not run the ball well nor stopped it well. Monroe is a diligent
rushing team that should eventually take control and run away with this win. MONROE BY 11

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-7½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 4 BUFFALO (NL) over Miami
RATING 3 DENVER (NL) over Dallas
RATING 2 DETROIT (+10½) over Chicago
RATING 1 CLEVELAND (+4½) over Cincinnati

BYE WEEK: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

HOUSTON (-9½) Oakland (42½) 12:00 PM
In the short history of the franchise Houston has been favored by over a touchdown just four
times and only twice this high (0-2 ATS). The Raiders have had less than 170 yards of offense
in back-to-back weeks but Oakland could still have a rushing edge in this game as the Texans
have averaged just 70 yards per game on the ground. Oakland is getting the worst QB play in
the league with the possible exception of Cleveland as former #1 pick Russell has been
unbelievably inefficient and opponents know that that the Raiders have little to work with if the
running game is stopped. Houston has featured one of the worst statistical defenses in the
league, allowing 28 points per game and allowing opponents to convert 50 percent of 3rd
downs. Oakland is a tough team to back but with the superior defense and running game a
near double-digit underdog is attractive. TEXANS BY 6

Tennessee (-1) JACKSONVILLE (41) 12:00 PM
The Titans can’t possibly be this bad right? That’s what we and many others thought last week
but despite a sound yardage edge Tennessee managed four turnovers and many other
mistakes to move to 0-3. Jacksonville narrowly adverted 0-3 with a win last week as these
teams both played close and entertaining back-and-forth games. Statistically these teams
have been similar as the offensive production has been decent but defensively both teams
have been a bit worse than anticipated. Some of that should be chalked up to the schedule as
both teams have faced quality offensive teams. Jacksonville has had little success in this
series, losing and failing ATS in both games last season. With Indianapolis and New England
the next two weeks this is an incredibly important game for the Titans. Jacksonville will be a
team that gets on a run mid-season as the schedule is about to soften tremendously but this is
a serious do-or-die situation for the Titans. TITANS BY 3

NEW ENGLAND (-1) Baltimore (44) 12:00 PM
The Ravens have been incredibly impressive this season but keep in mind two wins and much
of the statistical leverage came in two home wins against teams that are now 0-3. Baltimore’s
schedule will be getting a whole lot tougher as the next five opponents are currently 12-3
combined. The Ravens were 12-4 ATS last year in the regular season and are 3-0 so far this
season and riding this team has been very profitable but the value is starting to catch up. New
England was the consensus NFL favorite to start the season and the results have been
mediocre, creating a very cheap price at home. The offense has struggled to convert
touchdowns but this is still the fifth most productive unit in the NFL and that includes a game
against the current #3 defense. The Patriots picked up their first ATS win last week but this is
a team on a 17-3 S/U run at home since 2007. PATRIOTS BY 4

Cincinnati (-4½) CLEVELAND (38½) 12:00 PM
The Bengals got the big win to really legitimize what looks like a great turnaround but this is
the type of game that past Bengals teams often let slip away. Cleveland has been atrocious
offensively this season and neither QB is accomplishing anything positive as the line is not
offering protection and there is no running game to take the pressure off. The Browns have
averaged just 218 yards per game while allowing nearly double that total. In fairness the
teams Cleveland has played are a collective 9-0 and two of the three games have been on the
road. Although Cincinnati was unfortunate to lose the opening game with a fluke play the
Bengals have caught a lot of breaks the last two weeks and Cincinnati is averaging less than
300 yards per game. It is risky to back the Browns but it’s a good spot. BROWNS BY 3

NY GIANTS (-9½) Kansas City (42½) 12:00 PM
Historically the Chiefs have been a play -on home underdog but that simply has not been the
case in recent years. The Chiefs have had the third worst offensive produc tion in the league
and QB Cassel has not been the answer. Kansas City has been respectable defensively
considering they have faced two of the top offenses in the league. No team has been better
on both sides of the ball then the Giants and with some injuries last week New York delivered
one of the most impressive performances ever in Tampa Bay. This will oddly be a rare third
consecutive road game for New York so there could be some wear on the Giants. New York is
12-4 the last four years as road favorites so even with a steep price and a tough travel
situation it is tough to consider fading the Giants. Kansas City simply has not had a chance to
get in sync with all the changes as the schedule has been too tough. GIANTS BY 17

CHICAGO (-10½) Detroit (38) 12:00 PM
The Bears caught some breaks last week as Seattle missed critical field goals but it was a
huge road win to keep pace in the now very competitive NFC North. Detroit snapped the
historic losing streak last week and there could be some degree of letdown but this is a team
that has competed well all season an was bound to win at some point. Chicago is a tough
team to trust as a big favorite as the Bears have surprisingly been one of the worst rushing
teams in the NFL. Detroit has also been a very strong ATS team as a big underdog on the
road and the two losses came against teams that are now 3-0. BEARS BY 6

WASHINGTON (-7½) Tampa Bay (37½) 12:00 PM
The Redskins will look to rebound from an embarrassing loss but Washington is scoring less
than 14 points per game. Tampa Bay delivered one of the all-time worst offensive
performances last week and the Byron Leftwich experiment may be over as Josh Johnson
came in last week. The Bucs were competitive the first two games but now 0-3 and facing
NFC East road opponents the next two weeks there appears to be little hope for success this
season. As bad as the offense has been, the defense has had greater issues, allowing 432
yards per game and 30 points per game. This is a not a Washington team that inspires
confidence but the defense has been effective and there will be a lot of pressure on the
players and staff to bounce back following an ugly loss. REDSKINS BY 14

INDIANAPOLIS (NL) Seattle 12:00 PM
The Colts had delivered two narrow escapes but then came up big with a blowout win and a
huge passing day in primetime last week. The Colts will host a Seattle team that has lost
back-to-back games and is possibly still without QB Hasselbeck this week. Seattle out-gained
the Bears and Coach Mora was searing after the game regarding the missed field goals.
Statistically the Seahawks have been a little above average on both sides of the ball but given
a manageable early season schedule 1-2 is a huge disappointment. Indianapolis has some
concerns on defense with Dwight Freeney banged up and Bob Sanders still out. The Colts
have proven to be able to win any style of game. COLTS BY 10

NEW ORLEANS (-6½) NY Jets (46) 3:05 PM
This didn’t look like much of a game when the schedule was released but it will be the game
of the week with a 3-0 showdown between to upstart squads. New Orleans has been the most
productive offensive team in the league and the Saints did it on the ground last week. New
Orleans was caught in a much tougher battle than the final score indicates but the team is still
averaging 40 points per game. Offense meets defense this week and the Jets have forced
opposing QBs into awful performances this season. Statistically other teams have been a bit
better on defense but New York has done it against quality offensive teams. Playing on the
road will be another challenge but this is a team that clearly has a lot going its way. The Saints
have been marginal at home in recent years and will likely be overvalued. JETS BY 3

MIAMI (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
In the last two games Miami has rushed effectively and controlled the clock but the Dolphins
are settling for far too many field goals and the result is an 0-3 start for last year’s AFC East
champion. Buffalo is 1-2 with two losses against quality opponents in close games but there
have been some problems for the Bills as the offense struggled considerably at home last
week. Chad Pennington left last week’s game and he is still questionable at this point. Buffalo
has had a tremendous edge in the last five years in this series covering in eight of the last ten
and the Dolphins have been a horrible ATS home team. BILLS BY 10

SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:15 PM
Injuries will be a big factor in this line as QB Marc Bulger is banged up and RB Frank Gore is
likely out taking away a key offensive player for both teams. San Francisco had a golden
opportunity to start 3-0 last week with a brutal loss but the Niners have shown a lot of positive
things this season and should be considered a viable threat in the NFC and the NFC West
favorite. St. Louis finally got the running game going a bit last week but this has been a
pathetic offensive team and Kyle Boller has not proven to be starter material in the NFL
despite several chances. San Francisco seems to be a team that can bounce back from a
tough loss quickly as the new coaching staff is getting great respect. 49ERS BY 14

DENVER (NL) Dallas 3:15 PM
The Broncos have been the biggest surprise of the season at 3-0 but the schedule has been
suspect. Still this is a team that has won twice on the road and has the best defensive
statistics in the league, by a fairly wide margin. Dallas is coming off back-to-back primetime
games so this could be a tough situation even though Denver has been a horrendous ATS
home team but the Broncos are 3-0 S/U and ATS this season. It is hard to say how good
Denver is but Dallas has had big problems on defense and still seems to turn the ball over too
often on offense to trust on the road. We will know much more about Dallas after Monday’s
game but even a nice win makes this a tough trip on a short week. BRONCOS BY 13

PITTSBURGH (-6) San Diego (41½) 7:20 PM
The Super Bowl champs seemed to improve its maligned running game last week but it was
not enough to win as the Steelers uncharacteristically blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead.
The Chargers have had virtually no success in this series over the years and the Steelers
have been impressive home favorites with covers in five of the last six. Last season the
Chargers lost by one in the infamous game in Pittsburgh where the closing touchdown was
oddly wiped away to keep the cover with the Chargers but this should be a tough spot for San
Diego facing long distance travel. The Steelers have faced a tough schedule including the last
two on the road so this could be a great bounce back effort. San Diego has not been able to
run the ball with Tomlinson out of the lineup and the Steelers have fared well in shootout type
games even though Rivers has posted big numbers this year. STEELERS BY 10

MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2009

MINNESOTA (-3) Green Bay (46) 7:30 PM
The Vikings have really not been that impressive offensively this season averaging just 318
yards per game. The Vikings have however come through when it counts to deliver a 3-0 start.
Defensively the Vikings have some of the best numbers in the league but they have faced
three marginal offensive teams and this will be by far the biggest threat against a defense that
has looked more vulnerable than the past few seasons. The Packers have had great success
in the underdog role in this series and this will be a much bigger game for the Packers than for
most of the Vikings with one small exception. Green Bay has shown a lot of problems against
the run which makes this appear like a bad match-up but the Packers have some key play -
makers in the secondary that could take advantage of potential mistakes. Minnesota’s home
field edge is not as significant when the Packers are in town and this should be tight game
that the Packers have the chance to take. PACKERS BY 3

Power Sweep

4* Ohio state. 34-6
3* Tulsa 41-20
3* Temple 30-10
2* Idaho + 31-28 Idaho wins outright
2* USF 37-13
2* FAU 31-17
Underdog UCLA +6 21-20 UCLA Outright

4* Tenn. 20-10
3* Cinn. 31-13
2* St.Louis + 23-24
2* NYG 34-10

3* Ravens under 44
3* Bengals Over 38
3* Lions Over 38
2* Jax Under 41
2* Colts Under 43

Red Sheet

Tulsa 57 - RICE 24 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 13, and is now minus 13½. Explosive 'Canes
were shut out at Oklahoma, but certainly not the first to be held in check by that Sooner "D".
Took out frustrations LW, with Kinne tossing 4 TDs in first half. Took Owls by 35 year ago, &
that Rice squad finished 10th in the land on "O", eventually winding up in a bowl. But just 4
returnees from that unit, thus this edition can't offset its normally weak "D", which has been
had by the week (44 ppg in '09), allowing nearly 500 yds LW, to a Vandy squad which ranked
89th on "O" entering that one. Spread is more than doable.
RATING: TULSA 89

Washington 25 - NOTRE DAME 22 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NoDame minus 13½, and is still minus 13½..
Not many easy games for the Irish, who've opened at 3-1, with their only setback coming in
the dying seconds vs Michigan. And now they're hurting at QB, RB, & WR (see injuries
below). The return of Husky QB Locker has had its expected effect, as UW has been more
than competitive, following LY's disastrous 0-12 campaign, finishing 117th in the land in total
offense. A narrow miss vs LSU, in which Huskies had 478-321 yd edge, along with monumental
upset of USC (23-pt cover). And the Irish have USC dead ahead.
RATING: WASHINGTON 89

Auburn 27 - TENNESSEE 17 - (7:45) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 2, & is now minus 1½. The Tigers
have been pure gold for us this season, as we've cashed in on them 3-of-3 times that we
pegged them as Red Sheet plays. And we jump in again, as they take on a Vol squad, which
has 11 TOs in its 4 games to date, including 8 interceptions by QB Crompton, which plays
into Auburn's hands, as it has 8 picks already. Contrast that to War Eagle signal caller, Todd,
who has tossed for 12 TDs in the early going. Vol "D" has done admirable work, but Tigs are
simply too balanced (262 RYpg, 265 PYpg) to be contained.
RATING: AUBURN 88

Central Michigan 44 - BUFFALO 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at CentralMichigan minus 10, and is now minus
8½. Friendly line movement here, due to the emergence of the Bulls as offensive power
(28.5 ppg over their last 13 outings). But losses of QB Willy & RB Stark have left that
particular cupboard somewhat bare: just 17 & 13 pts last 2 wks, vs likes of CentFla & Temple.
And check QB Maynard's 4 INTs in that loss to the Owls. Chips, on the other hand, are
returning to recent form, behind the guidance of veteran QB LeFevour, who has blitzed UB
the past 2 yrs. And CM in off 326-RY explosion. Just too many weapons.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88

MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - Oklahoma 22 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 6½, and is now minus 7.
Originally sided with the Okies here, following the 'Canes' underwhelming performance at
VaTech last week (12 FDs, 209 yds), especially in light to the fact that the Okies enter off a
combined 109-0 scoring edge in their last 2 outings. But word is that UM will be more than
ready for this biggie, & the 'Canes already have a pair of impressive wins, including the
complete throttling of a quality GaTech squad (226 yd edge), in their only home game to
date. And the Sooners will be without Heisman QB Bradford once again.
RATING: MIAMI-FLORIDA 88

CHICAGO 23 - Detroit 22 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 11½, and is now minus 10½. Quick
respect for the Lions (line move) off the snapping of their 19-game losing streak, in upset of
the 'Skins. And what an impressive showing, holding a 154-65 RY edge, along with a 36:48-
23:12 time advantage. Throw in Stafford's 21-of-36 effort (no picks) against Washington's
7th-ranked scoring "D". The visitor has covered 14 of the last 17 games involving the Lions,
while last 6 Bear games have been decided by a TD or less SU, with Chicago just 1-6 ATS
as a DD favorite. And the loss of Urlacher simply has to take its toll.
RATING: DETROIT 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Stanford, Nevada, So Florida, Penn St -- NFL: 49ers, Titans, Packers

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): IowaSt (Pick to -3); Minn (Pick to -2½); NMex (+38 to +35½);
Houst (-14½ to -16½); Buff (+10 to +8½); Ga (-1 to -2); Stanford (-4½ to -6); Indy (+17½ to +16); Arky (Pickto -1½) - NFL: Bills (+1½ to -1½); Titans (-1 to -2½); Colts (+3 to +2); Cincy (-4 to -5); Lions (+11½ to +10½)

LOGICAL APPROACH

Issue # 5 Games through October 5, 2008

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEVADA - 3 ½ over Unlv - This has been a streaky rivalry over the past decade. Nevada has won 4 straight after dropping 5 in a row to their downstate rival. Both teams had great expectations entering this season. UNLV has started 2-2 with their last 3 games going down to the wire after an opening game blowout of FCS Sacramento State, defeating Hawaii but losing to Oregon State and at Wyoming. Nevada is winless but played tougher competition, losing at Notre Dame and to Missouri, sandwiched around a loss at improved Colorado State. Nevada has performed well at home in recent years and carries the higher pedigree, having been to Bowls each of the past 4 seasons. Both teams will be highly motivated for this game with Nevada playing with a greater sense of urgency as they seek their first win on the eve of their conference opener next week. The talent level is fairly even with Nevada having an edge on the sidelines. And UNLV still commits too many dumb penalties. Nevada wins 37-24.

Other Featured College Selections

South Florida - 7 over SYRACUSE - This would normally be looked at as a flat spot for South Florida following their huge upset of instate rival Florida State last week. That win came on the road and was the first meeting between the schools so there was no revenge factor involved or the continuation of any traditional or longstanding rivalry. Two things were impressive about that win. First, it came despite the loss of starting QB Grothe who is out for the season. Second, it came after USF opened the season with wins over 3 very weak teams and thus had not yet been tested. The flat spot has been factored in the line as many power ratings have USF double digits better than Syracuse. The Orange will be without some key defenders which should minimize the impact of USF's loss of QB experience. Since joining the Big East USF has dominated Syracuse, winning by 27, 17, 31 and 32 points. Syracuse is improved under new coach Marrone but a great gap still exists. And USF is off next week while Syracuse hosts West Virginia. South Florida wins 31-16.

Oklahoma - 7 over MIAMI FLA - Miami should be in a foul mood following their 31-7 loss last week at Virginia Tech. They seek to avenge a 51-13 loss at Oklahoma two seasons ago. The stats were every bit as lopsided as the score with the Sooners outgaining Miami 411-139. Miami is an improved program but perhaps not as improved as many observers thought just two weeks ago. Their opening win at Florida State has to be devalued following FSU's sluggish effort against Jacksonville State and last week's home loss to South Florida, sandwiched around a rout of BYU. Miami's most impressive effort was their highly emotional win over Georgia Tech a couple of Thursday nights ago in a game they'd pointed to since being routed by GT last season. Miami was exposed last week at Virginia Tech and Oklahoma is capable of doing what VT did to the Canes, only with greater speed and better athletes. Even without Bradford at QB the Sooners are an elite team, notwithstanding their opening 14-13 loss to BYU. Oklahoma is rested after a Bye week and are off of back to back shutout wins. There is still a huge gap between the programs. Oklahoma wins 34-17.

Kansas State + 3 over Iowa State (at Kansas City, MO) - Both teams are lower tier Big 12 North teams and this will be one of perhaps no more than two or three conference wins for the victor. Both teams are rebuilding under first year coaches but K-State is coached by former coach Snyder who built the program from nothing into a nationally prominent program before retiring following the 2005 season. After dominating ISU for years Snyder lost his final two contests against the Cyclones. Snyder schedules soft early in the season to give his team confidence and work on preparation for conference play. Neither team has played much of a schedule thus far. Iowa State's biggest test was a 35-3 home loss to arch rival Iowa. Kansas State's biggest test was a 23-9 road loss at UCLA. The talent level on both teams is similar but Kansas State has a coaching edge and should benefit more from this site. And they do have the better defense which should be decisive in a game between a pair of at best average offenses. Kansas State wins 24-16.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
Utah State + 24 ½ over BYU [Friday]
East Carolina - 2 ½ over MARSHALL
Northwestern + 7 over PURDUE
Wisconsin + 2 ½ over MINNESOTA
WAKE FOREST Pick 'em over North Carolina State
BUFFALO + 8 over Central Michigan
Mississippi - 9 over VANDERBILT
Washington + 13 over NOTRE DAME
GEORGIA - 3 over Lsu
Georgia Tech - 5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Penn State - 7 over ILLINOIS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 6 ½ over Western Michigan
IDAHO + 4 over Colorado State
ARIZONA STATE - 4 ½ over Oregon State
Ohio State - 17 over INDIANA
Tulsa - 15 over RICE
Texas A&M - 1 over Arkansas [at Arlington, TX]
TENNESSEE - 1 ½ over Auburn
CALIFORNIA + 5 over Usc
SAN DIEGO STATE - 16 over New Mexico State
UTEP + 16 ½ over Houston
UL MONROE - 4 over Florida International

The Rest (Leans)
LOUISIANA TECH - 4 over Hawaii [Wednesday]
WEST VIRGINIA - 17 over Colorado [Thursday]
Pittsburgh - 6 ½ over LOUISVILLE [Friday]
Clemson - 13 ½ over MARYLAND
NORTH CAROLINA - 13 ½ over Virginia
BOSTON COLLEGE + 5 over Florida State
BALL STATE + 6 over Toledo
Alabama - 16 over KENTUCKY
Cincinnati - 28 ½ over MIAMI OHIO
Tempe - 6 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
ARMY - 6 over Tulane
Virginia Tech - 16 ½ over DUKE
NAVY - 3 ½ over Air Force
Michigan + 1 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Ohio U + 3 over BOWLING GREEN
Washington State + 32 over OREGON
Memphis + 7 over CENTRAL FLORIDA
Ucla + 6 over STANFORD
TEXAS TECH - 35 over New Mexico
TCU - 28 over Smu
IOWA - 21 over Arkansas State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 3 over Wyoming
No Lines at press time
Southern Miss at UAB [Thursday]
Kent State at BAYLOR

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: INDIANAPOLIS - 10 over Seattle - Seattle QB Hasselbeck's status keeps this game off the boards at press time. Expect the Colts to be small double digit favorites. Indianapolis was impressive in overcoming all the negatives involved after their Monday night win in Miami with a decisive win at Arizona. They had their best rushing game of the season in the 31-10 win and the defense made several key plays. The coaching transition from Dungy to Caldwell has been seamless and QB Manning is in top form. Seattle coach Mora is starting to panic with his post game tirade against his kicker after the loss to Chicago. This will be the most potent offense Seattle has faced this season and they cannot trade points with the Colts. This is also the Colts' only home game in a 7 week stretch. Indianapolis wins 31-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

Detroit + 10 over CHICAGO - The Lions finally ended their 19 game losing streak by holding on against Washington last week despite being slightly outgained in total yards. Chicago earned a second straight come from behind win at Seattle and all three of their games have been decided in the final minutes with margins of 6 points or less. Even with QB Cutler the Bears are first a team that relies on defense and a conservative offense. That makes laying double digits risky, especially against a long time Divisional foe that should be playing with greater confidence after finally unloading King Kong. Detroit actually has shown a better ground game, averaging 105 ypg to Chicago's 71 ypg. With the new coaching regime in place in Detroit there is more room to show greater weekly improvement and that will start to be evident. Chicago wins but by just 27-23.

Dallas - 3 over DENVER - Denver is 3-0 but has yet to face a team considered capable of being a Playoff contender. Dallas is off of Monday night's win over Carolina in which they ran for over 200 yards for a second straight week. RB Jones was injured but RB Barber should be back for this game. The Broncos are not as good as their 3-0 record but nor are they as bad as many pundits had predicted they would be. There is good talent at most positions. And the defense has played well, holding all three foes to under 100 rushing yards. Even with banged up running backs Dallas has the more potent offense including a more polished passing game. That offense will challenge and expose Denver's defense that has yet to be tested. And expect the Dallas defense to follow up their best effort of the season they had against Carolina. Dallas wins 28-20.

San Diego + 6 ½ over PITTSBURGH - Each of Pittsburgh's games has been decided by a FG with the Steelers losing each of the last two, both on the road. San Diego has not been able to run the ball with RB Tomlinson sidelined. But the Steelers have also been unable to run the football. Pittsburgh won both the regular season meeting and Playoff game last season but their own lack of a running game this season represents a concern. Both teams are banged up on defense. While the situation suggests a big effort from the Steelers that lack of a running game should prevent this game from being one sided. Especially with San Diego QB Rivers having had a solid start to the season. This will be the best offense Pittsburgh will have seen so far while San Diego's offense has already played Baltimore's defense. Pittsburgh wins but by just 27-24.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
HOUSTON - 9 ½ over Oakland
NEW ENGLAND - 2 over Baltimore
N Y Jets + 6 ½ over NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay + 3 ½ over MINNESOTA [Monday]

The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE + 3 over Tennessee
CLEVELAND + 5 over Cincinnati
KANSAS CITY + 9 over N Y Giants
WASHINGTON - 7 over Tampa Bay
MIAMI + 2 over Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO - 10 over St Louis

Bye Week :
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
Philadelphia

Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/New England OVER 44 ½
Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 38 ½
Detroit/Chicago OVER 39
Tampa Bay/Washington UNDER 37
Buffalo/Miami UNDER 37
Dallas/Denver OVER 43
San Diego/Pittsburgh OVER 43
Green Bay/Minnesota UNDER 46

Money Line Recommendations
College:
Kansas State
Ucla
CALIFORNIA
UL MONROE

Pro:
JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI
Dallas
Green Bay

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 AUBURN over *Tennessee
AUBURN 28 - *Tennessee 16

10 *NEVADA over Unlv
*NEVADA 45 - Unlv 30

10 *STANFORD over Ucla
*STANFORD 33 - Ucla 16

10 TULSA over *Rice
TULSA 52 - *Rice 26

10 *DENVER over Dallas
*DENVER 21 - Dallas 13

Though UT’s antagonistic 1st-year Lane Kiffin has provided no bulletin board material to rile up Auburn, SEC scouts believe wrong team (Vols) is favored (we concur), even in Knoxville. After all, UT’s non-developing QB Crompton (8 ints.) still desperately seeking a go-to receiver with top WR G. Jones still less than 100%. And with fiery, suretackling MLB Reveiz (calls all signals) sidelined for the year with knee injury and steady vet CB Rogan (check status; academics) currently suspended, thinning Vol defense unable to cope with creative, balanced Auburn spread (45 ppg), orchestrated by well-protected QB Todd (12 TDP; only 7 in ‘08). Heck, Ohio QB Scott threw for 302 and generated 23 pts. vs. UT week ago. AU’s demanding 1st-year HC Gene Chizik was displeased with how his defense (mostly reserves) lost focus with 40-10 3rd-Q lead vs. Ball State. No concern here. Chances good ball-hawking Tiger 2ndary (SEC-best 8 ints.) reaches double-digits in “picks.”Although it’s tempting to write off Nevada after 0-3 break from gate, WAC sources suggest Wolf Pack still capable of turning corner and salvaging campaign if it can continue recent domination of hated downstate rival UNLV.Remember, Nevada nothing if not formful under HC Chris Ault, who’s fashioned sparkling 15-3 mark as Reno chalk since returning to sidelines in 2004. And after facing bowl-caliber opposition, Pack could get back to bullyish ways against yielding Rebel “D” that’s been facing various spread attacks the past month and could again be caught off balance vs. Ault’s Pistol and long-legged QB Kaepernick, who gashed UNLV for 240 of Nevada’s 444 YR in LY’s 49-27 Pack romp in Vegas. MWC insiders also wary of fragile Rebel psyche after Wyo defeat, so no surprise if “Fremont Cannon” stays up north a 5th straight year.Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh has turned Stanford Stadium into a formidable venue, covering eight straight games on the Farm. Cardinal own an explosive attack led by RB Toby Gerhart (third in the country at 129 ypg rushing), RS frosh QB Andrew Luck (60% completions; 6.8 ypc) and a pair of dynamic receivers in Ryan Whalen and spectacular soph Chris Owusu (leads nation in kickoff returns). UCLA has had the better of the series in recent years, but Bruin HC Rick Neuheisel & o.c. Norm Chow are saddled with the 108th-ranked attack in the country, and there is no sign of a turnaround. UCLA has fashioned a 3-0 record with a bit of smoke-and-mirrors and a defense that’s played well, but really hasn’t had to stop the quality of weapons it faces this week.This looks like a complete mismatch on paper. The Rice defense has allowed 44 ppg this season (120th in the country), and ranks 115th or 116th in pass defense, pass efficiency (defensively and offensively), and total defense. Tulsa, which has led the nation in total offense the last two seasons, rolled up 63 points & 577 yards in last year’s meeting against the Owls. Rice has several players who are questionable with various injuries, including Alabama transfer QB Nick Fanuzzi (DNP last week due to a shoulder injury), and RB Tyler Smith (turf toe).Golden Hurricane QB G.J. Kinne (Texas transfer) has taken over Tulsa HC Todd Graham’s offense with authority.Kinne currently ranks 10th in the country in pass efficiency as well as leading his team in rushing. Golden Hurricane went to Tulane and New Mexico, covered 14 and 17-point imposts, and expect similar result in this game.Yes. Denver was a bunch of lucky Broncos to escape Cincinnati with a victory on opening Sunday. However, few would deny that rookie HC Josh McDaniels has improved his team in every game since, led by the reconstructed 3-4 defense installed by new coordinator Mike Nolan, the former HC of the 49ers. Now, in the last two games, the Bronco offense is beginning to show signs that Denver will be tough to beat TY, with impressive rookie RB Knowshon Moreno having gained 184 YR in support of veteran Correll Buckhalter 230 YR (and 7.4 ypc!). Controversial WR Brandon Marshall has been keeping his mouth closed, and is again a reliable go-to target. Tony Romo can’t afford any errant throws vs. Broncs’ improved secondary.

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

* - Denotes Home Team RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Cincinnati-Cleveland Game—Antwan Odom’s sacks (7) and emergence of Southern Cal LBs Rivers & Maualuga giving plenty of bite to Bengal defense; Browns hard-pressed to score even one TD these days...UNDER (37) in the Washington-Tampa Bay Game— Redskins 14-4-1 “under” in the Zorn era; Bucs’ offense searching for any continuity.NINE-RATED GAMES: WEST VIRGINIA (-18) over Colorado (Thursday)—Payback for WV for an OT loss LY in Boulder; Mountaineers have the best long-distance weapons in this game, including their mascot’s long rifle)...NORTHWESTERN (+6) at Purdue—NW has the versatile offense to exploit weaknesses in Purdue defense; QB Kafka starting to exhibit NFL potential...TEXAS TECH (-37) over New Mexcio—Lobos averaging one TD per game;not enough vs. Red Raider team back in Lubbock after two road losses...SAN FRANCISCO (-10½) vs. St. Louis—Niners have won all their home games (4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. spread) ever since the Mike Singletary declared, “I want winners.”

GOLD SHEET-TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

COLLEGE

COLORADO at WEST VIRGINIA (Thursday, October
1)...Buffs only 14-24 vs. line for Hawkins and just 6-14 against
number on road that span. Hawkins also poor 3-11 as road dog
since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on Hawkins’ CU
road/dog marks.

SOUTHERN MISS at UAB (Thursday, October 1)...USM has
feasted upon UAB, winning 9 straight and covering 6 of last 7,
including 6 of last 7 and a 70-14 romp LY. Golden Eagles 9-2 vs. line
last 11 away, and also 9-2 as road chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-
USM, based on series and team trends.

PITT at LOUISVILLE (Friday, October 2)..."Stache" Wannstedt
has covered the last two vs. UL and won big 42-7 LY. ‘Stache just
5-9 as road chalk since ‘06, but 8-3 vs. line last 11 reg.-season
games. Cards 2-5 vs. line as Big East host since ‘07. Tech edge-
Pitt, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at BYU (Friday, October 3)...Ags have covered
first two on board TY and are now 15-6 vs. line last 21 on board.
Bronco just 6-11 vs. line last 17 on board and 5-8 last 13 as chalk.
Tech edge-USU, based on recent trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at SYRACUSE...Marrone a surprising 3-0 vs.
line out of gate. But USF has won and covered big the last 4
meetings. Still, note Bulls just 2-6 vs. number last 8 as road chalk.
Tech edge-slight to USF, based on series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at MARSHALL...Herd has covered the last
two meetings. Skip Holtz, however, just 3-12 last 15 on board, 2-9
last 11 vs. line away and no covers last 6 as road chalk. Herd 4-1
last 5 as home dog. Tech edge-Marshall, based on recent
Skip negatives.

NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE...“Unders” 4 of last 5 in series.
Note Purdue 0-4-1 vs. points last 5 after Notre Dame. Cats have
covered last 4 as dog away from Evanston. Tech edge-NU,
based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA...Ugh! Slab of Bacon! Axe!
“Unders” last 8 in series. Badgers have won Axe last 5 years
although Gophers have covered the last two. If UW dog, note
Bielema a mere 3-8 last 11 in role. Tech edge-slight to
Minnesota, based on team trends.

NC STATE at WAKE FOREST...Deacs had covered 5 straight vs.
NCS before Wolfpack got the cover LY. If O’Brien a dog, note NCS
has covered last 8 as dog and is 14-3 last 17 as short. If Grobe a
dog note his 17-8 mark last 25 in role. Tech edge-slight to Wake,
if dog, based on team and series trends.

CLEMSON at MARYLAND...Note that road team has covered
last 5 and 6 of last 7 in series. Dog has also covered 4 of last 5
meetings, and 7 of last 8 “under” as well. Tech edge-slight to
Clemson, based on series and team trends.

VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA...Groh has won and covered
last 3 in series, and “unders” 4-0-1 last 5 meetings. Heels only 5-10
as chalk since ‘06 (5-8 for Butch). Groh is 5-2 his last 7 as ACC road
dog. Tech edge-slight to Virginia, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Note that road team
has won and covered last 4 meetings. Bowden has covered 3 of
last 4 as road chalk. BC 12-5 as dog since ‘04 (3-1 as home dog that
span) but Spaziani 0-1 getting points. Noles 7-0-1 vs. line after last 8
SU losses. Tech edge-FSU, basd on series and team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Bulls haven’t offered the
same value at home as they have on road past few years, now just 2-
6 vs. line last 8 as host. Tech edge-CMU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at BALL STATE...Rockets only 6-14 vs. line last 20
away from Glass Bowl, 0-2 since ‘06 as rare road chalk. Tech
edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at KENTUCKY...Teams don’t meet every year,
although visitor has covered last 3 in series (including UK LY at
Tuscaloosa). Recent numbers not overwhelming, but go back a bit
and note Rich Brooks 11-7 last 18 as dog. Little Nicky, however, 6-
1 last 7 as chalk away from home, and covered all 4 on SEC trail LY.
Tech edge-slight to Bama, based on recent trends.

OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have covered 7 of last 8 in
series. Losing last 2 SU and Ole Miss has failed to cover last 3 trips
to Vandy. Rebs 0-4 as road chalk since ‘04. Bobby Johnson much
better as dog, 9-2 last 11 in role and 28-15 last 43 as short. Tech
edge-Vandy, based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami 0-4 SU and vs. line for
Haywood, now 4-15 last 19 on board. Bearcats have won and
covered last 3 handily vs. local rival, holding RedHawks to 10 points
each of last 3 meetings. Miami 1-6 vs. line last 7 as host at Yager
Stadium. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series trends and
recent Miami woes.

TEMPLE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Eagles no covers last 5 as
host (0-1 TY) and 3-9 vs. line at Ypsilanti since ‘06. Owls could be
rare road chalk, a role in which they were 1-1 LY. Tech edgeslight
to Temple, based on EMU home woes.

TULANE at ARMY...Army physically punished Wave 44-13 LY at
Dome, after Tulane had covered prior three meetings in series since
‘04. Wave, however, now on debilitating 6-game spread losing
streak. Black Knights just 4-11 vs. number at Michie since ‘06. Tech
edge-slight to Tulane, based on recent Army home woes.

VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE...Beamer had won and covered big the
three meetings previous to LY, when he couldn’t quite cover vs.
Duke in 14-3 win at Blacksburg. Duke just 4-9 as home dog since
‘06 (1-1 for Cutcliffe, however) and 6-16 last 22 vs. number at
Wallace Wade Stadium (although 3-2 for Cutcliffe). Beamer 15-3
vs. line last 18 on ACC road. Tech edge-Beamer, based on
extended trends.

WASHINGTON at NOTRE DAME...Weis just 17-28 overall vs. line
last 45 on board. Tech edge-UW, based on recent trends.

LSU at GEORGIA...Teams don’t meet every year, although
Georgia has covered last 3 since ‘04 and won a wild 52-38
shootout LY. Note Les no covers in 4 of his revenge tries since
arriving at LSU. Richt, however, 1-6 vs. line last 7 as host. Tech
edge-slight to LSU, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at NAVY...Mids have won and covered last 6 in
series. Mids also 9-1 vs. line last 10 vs. Falcs. Tech edge-Navy,
based on series trends.

GEORGIA TECH at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Paul Johnson 9-5 vs.
line at GT. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Stoops still 30-15 vs. line last
45 on board. Although worth noting vs. high-level opposition away
from home lately in bowls, he’s 1-5 last 6 vs. number. Canes now
4-1 as dog since LY. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on
extended trends.

PENN STATE at ILLINOIS...Although Illini hasn’t won in series
since ‘01, Zook has covered the last 3 years vs. Shades. Shades
just 2-6-1 vs. number last 9 on Big Ten road, and he’s 0-4 vs. line
early TY. Tech edge-Illinois, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Road team 4-1-1 vs. line last
6 in this rivalry. MSU could be dog here and is just 1-5 vs. line last
6 in role. Spartans also 3-5 vs. line last 8 at home. Tech edge-slight
to Michigan, based on recent team and series road trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Competitive
series lately with last 3 all decided by 4 or fewer. NIU has had
spread edge by covering last 2 and 7 of last 8 against WMU.
Huskies, however, likely laying some points this time, and they’re
just 1-10 their last 11 as Dekalb chalk. Broncos 5-2-1 last 8 as MAC
dog. Tech edge-WMU, based on team trends.

OHIO at BOWLING GREEN...Road team has won and covered
the last 3 years, so this is revenge for Solich after getting popped
by BGSU at Athens LY. Bobcats, however, just 3-5 vs. line as MAC
visitor since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ohio, based on series
road trends.

UNLV at NEVADA...Fremont Cannon has belonged to Wolf Pack
lately, winning and covering last 4 vs. UNLV. Chris Ault 15-3 as
Reno chalk since returing to Pack sidelines in ‘04 . Sanford,
however, is 6-2 as dog since LY (3-1 as road dog LY). Tech
edge-Nevada, based on recent series trends.

COLORADO STATE at IDAHO...CSU has covered 5 last 6 since
late ‘08. Rams just 1-4 as road chalk since ‘04, however. Vandals
have covered first 4 on board TY for HC Akey, and Idaho actually 7-
1 vs. line last 8 on board since late ‘08. Tech edge-slight to
Idaho, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE vs. IOWA STATE (at Kansas City)...Ugh! ISU
has covered 4 of last 5 in series. Snyder 0-2 vs. line TY and KSU
now on 4-13 slide last 17 on board. Tech edge-ISU, based on
recent series and team trends.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA STATE...OSU no wins or covers
last 5 at Tempe, 0-5-1 vs. line last 6 at ASU. Sun Devils have
covered 4 of last 5 in series. Riley is 7-4 as road dog since ‘06,
however, and 6-2 vs. points last 8 on Pac-10 road. ASU 12-7 last
19 as home chalk. Tech edge-ASU, based on series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON...Ducks have won and
covered by huge margins the last two years. Bellotti was 7-3 as DD
home chalk the past three years but Chip 0-1 in role. Ducks have
also covered 4 of their last 5 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-slight
to Oregon, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at BAYLOR...Flashes 5-12 last 17 as dog. Art
Briles still 9-4 vs. line at Baylor and 3-1 as chalk despite UConn loss.
Tech edge-Baylor, based on Kent State negatives.

MEMPHIS at CENTRAL FLORIDA...UCF has won and covered
the last two years. Tigers no covers last 3 tries getting more than 7
as dog, and 2-5 last 7 vs. line away from home. Tech edgeslight
to UCF, based on team and recent series trends.

UCLA at STANFORD...Bruins have won and covered last 3
meetings, with 6 of last 7 “under” in series. Tree, however, has still
covered 4 of last 5 as series host. UCLA on 13-5-1 spread run last
19 on board and 5-2 last 7 as Pac-10 road dog. Tree, however, on
8-0 spread run at home for Harbaugh. Tech edge-slight to
Stanford, based on recent home mark.

NEW MEXICO at TEXAS TECH...Lobos 0-4 SU and vs. line for
Locksley, and UNM now 1-5 last 6 as road dog. Leach 6-1 last 7
and 8-2 last 10 vs. line hosting non-Big XII foes. Tech edge-TT,
based on Lobo negatives.

OHIO STATE at INDIANA...Teams haven’t met since ‘06 but
Buckeyes had covered last 4 in series until then. Tressel 6-1 vs.
line last 7 away from Horseshoe and has covered last 7 as Big Ten
visitor. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

TULSA at RICE... Todd Graham game! Last three way “over” in
this series and Owls “over” 33-7-1 their last 41 “totals” plays.
Graham 7-3 since LY laying DD (1-0 TY). But Owls historically
tough as home dog (18-6 in role since ‘99). Tech edge-“Over”
and slight to Rice, based on team and “totals” trends.

ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones Cowboys
Stadium in Arlington)...Old SWC war. Ags 4-8 vs. number last
12 away from Kyle Field. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas,
based on team trends.

AUBURN at TENNESSEE...Auburn 3-1 vs. line for Chizik. If Vols a
dog note they are 4-2 vs. line in role at Neyland Stadium since ‘04
(although 0-2 for Fulmer LY). Tech edge-Auburn, based on
current trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at CAL...Note last five “unders” in series.
Note Pete Carroll 0-4 vs. line last 4 on Pac-10 road and 6-17 vs. spread
last 23 as Pac-10 visitor. Tedford has also covered last 8 as host
since LY. Tech edge-Cal, based on team trends.

SMU at TCU...Metroplex war! TCU 14-5 its last 18 on board and
Patterson has covered last 7 on board at Fort Worth. Frogs also 7-
1 last 8 as DD chalk and have covered last 6 as Amon Carter
Stadium DD chalk. June Jones 2-5 vs. line away with Mustangs.
Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...NMS 3-1 as DD
road dog since LY! Tech edge-slight to NMS, based on team
trends.

HOUSTON at UTEP...UTEP has lost SU but covered last 2 years
vs. UH in wild matchups. Mike Price only 5-8 last 13 as dog but
extended numbers in role with Miners are okay (17-12 last 29).
Miners also just 2-6 last 8 at Sun Bowl and 1-4 last 5 as Sun Bowl
dog. Cougs only 1-4 as road chalk LY. Tech edge-slight to
UTEP, based on series and team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at IOWA...Red Wolves just 3-10 their last 13
on board, although 5-3 vs. line last 8 as non-Belt visitor. Ferentz just
4-12 as DD chalk since ‘06 (3-8 at Iowa City in role) but note he is
now 9-2 vs. line last 11 on board. Tech edge-slight to Iowa,
based on recent trends.

WYOMING at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Schnellenberger has
struggled on road vs. non-Belt foes but is 3-0 SU and vs. line
hosting them (counts ‘07 vs. Minn. at Dolphin Stadium) since ‘07.
Wyo still just 3-18-1 last 22 on board and 1-10 vs. spread last 11 on
road. Tech edge-FAU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at UL-MONROE...Weatherbie has
won and covered handily the last 3 meetings. Tech edge-slight
to ULM, based on series trends.

NFL

OAKLAND at HOUSTON..Kubiak 7-5 vs. line last 12 as host.
Texans also “over” 16-8 last 24. Tech edge-“Over” and Texans,
based on “totals” trends and recent Kubiak home mark.

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE...Titans won and covered both
meetings LY and have covered 3 of last 4 vs. Jags. Titans 5-2 as
road chalk LY. Tennessee also “under” 9-3 last 12 away. Del Rio
1-8 vs. line last 9 at home. Tech edge-“Under” and Titans,
based on “totals” and team trends.

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND...Belichick only 4-10 vs. line last
14 at Gillette Stadium. John Harbaugh 17-5 vs. line as Ravens HC.
Ravens also “over” 11-5 last 16 away. Tech edge-Ravens and
“over”, based on team and “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND...Brownies no covers last 7 on
board since late ‘08. “Unders” 11-6-1 last 18 in series. Marvin
Lewis “under” 16-8 last 24 since late ‘07. Tech edge-“Under”
and Bengals, based on “totals” and team trends.

NY GIANTS at KANSAS CITY...Coughlin now 25-7 vs. line last
32 away. Chiefs now 3-11 vs. number last 14 at Arrowhead.
Tech edge-Giants, based on team trends.

DETROIT at CHICAGO...Lions have covered last 2 at Soldier
Field and 4 of last 5 in series. Lions “over” 20-6 last 26 on road as
well. Lovie only 3-9 last 12 as home chalk. Tech edge-“Over”
and Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.

TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON...Bucs no covers first 3 TY and
now 3-10 vs. line last 13 on board since mid ‘08. Zorn “under” 14-
4-1 since LY and only 1-4 as home chalk. Tech edge-“Under”,
based on “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at INDIANAPOLIS...Seattle “under” 8-4 last 11 since
mid ‘08. Colts “under” 7-3 last 10 as host. Colts also just 4-10 vs.
line last 14 as host. Tech edge-“Under” and Seahawks,
based on “totals” and team trends.

NY JETS at NEW ORLEANS...Saints 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host (1-
0 TY). Saints also “over” 17-7 last 24, although Jets “under” 7-3
last 10 away. Jets 7-1 last 8 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to
Saints and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI...Dolphins won and covered both meetings
LY after dropping previous 4 vs. Bills. “Unders” 5-1 last 6 in series.
Sparano, however, only 2-8 vs. line as host, and Dolphins 3-14-1
vs. number last 18 at LandShark Stadium. Tech edge-Bills,
based on Dolphins’ home woes.

ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...“Unders” 5-1 last 6 in series.
Rams 7-15 vs. line last 22 on board. Singletary 8-2-1 last 11 on
board and 3-0-1 last 4 as host. Tech edge-49ers and “under”,
based on recent team and “totals” trends.

DALLAS at DENVER...Denver “under” first 3 TY and 11-4 last 15
since early ‘08. Cowboys 8-15 vs. line last 23 on board prior to
Monday vs. Panthers. Broncos 3-0 vs. line TY. Tech edge-
Broncos and “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH...Steel still “over” 47-23 last 70 at
Heinz Field (though “under” 1-0 TY), Norv “over” 15-5 away since
‘08. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (Monday, October 5)...Favre war!
Pack has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 meetings. Pack also 13-4 as
road dog since ’06 (4-1 since LY). Eight of last nine in series at
Metrodome “over” as well. Childress 3-9 vs. line last 12 as host. Tech
edge-“Over” and Pack, based on “totals” and team trends.

AFS" (Away from Spread; includes past two pointspread
results)...Plus (+)...Ore +23.25, Ind 18.50, Ida 18.25, WSU 18.00,
Ohio St 16.25, Miss St 16.00, Neb 14.75, Hou 14.25, ISU 14.25, Boise
14.00, CMU 13.50, Iowa 13.00, Marsh 12.00, VT 11.00, Haw 10.75,
SoFla 10.25; Minus (-)...Ill - 25.25, So Cal 23.25, Cal 22.00, Tulane
21.50, Mem 17.00, BYU 16.25, Akr 15.50, Md 15.00, UAB 14.75, BGSU
14.25, ULL 13.25, Penn St 12.50, Ark 11.75, Ky 11.75, Buff 11.00, LT
10.50, Nev 10.50, UNM 10.00
.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

FAMILIARITY- CLEVELAND over Cincinnati.
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BALTIMORE over New England
BUFFALO over Miami, JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee, SAN DIEGO
over Pittsburgh, GREEN BAY over Minnesota (10/05)
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBAC-KANSAS CITY over NY Giants
NFL BLOWOUTR LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore
KANSAS CITY over NY Giants.

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

COLLEGE RELEASES

UTAH STATE
We’re always looking for teams “flying under the radar” who
could provide some unexpected pointspread value. And we think
we’ve located a good one in Utah State, which has actually been
covering numbers at a brisk clip since late in the ‘07 season and
looks to do some business in a special Friday night encounter at
Provo vs. those despised Cougars from BYU. As well as covering
their first two games on the board this season, the Aggies stand 15-
6 vs. the line their last 21 spread decisions dating to late in the ‘07
campaign. USU is also a featured Rivalry Underdog this week.
As for BYU, note that it has covered just 6 of its last 17 games on
the board, and just 5 of its last 13 as chalk.

VANDERBILT
One of the more enduring SEC series trends this decade has
been Vanderbilt’s ability to reward its backers when facing Ole
Miss, which the Commodores will do once more this Saturday at
Nashville. Indeed, Vandy has covered 7 of its last 8 against the
Rebels, including the last three matchups in Music City. Moreover,
the Dores have been a solid underdog play for HC Bobby Johnson,
covering 9 of their last 11 as the short and standing a noteworthy
28-15 their last 43 receiving points, good reasons why Johnson’s
team is a featured selection in the College Coach as Dog system
this week. Note, too, that as a road favorite, Ole Miss has left much
to be desired, dropping its last 4 tries against the number.

CALIFORNIA
Reputations sometimes cloud reality. Such apparently has been
the case when Southern Cal takes to the road in Pac-10, which the
Trojans do again Saturday night at Berkeley against Cal. Although
inspiring great fear in opponents and wagerers, the fact is that the
Trojans have been a massive underachiever as a Pac-10 visitor,
dropping their last four spread decisions as well as 17 of their last
23 in that role against the number. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears have
won and covered their last eight tries at home in Strawberry Canyon,
and qualify as a featured Power Underdog selection this week.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
It’s going to be a strange trip this week for the Wyoming
Cowboys, who will travel from their remote Laramie outpost in the
Rockies all of the way to sunny (or perhaps it will be stormy) south
Florida for a date against Howard Schnellenberger’s Florida
Atlantic in Fort Lauderdale this week. The Cowboys, who have
had enough problems lately traveling within their own region, not to
mention thousands of miles away, have covered just 1 of their last
11 on the road, as well as a mere 4 of their last 23 overall.
Meanwhile, the Owls are usually at their pointspread best hosting
non-Sun belt foes either at Lockhart Stadium or nearby LandShark
(nee Dolphin) Stadium, covering their last three as a non-Belt host.

NFL

DETROIT
Although Detroit has taken a lot of abuse from critics lately, the
Lions finally got the last laugh last week when ending their
protracted losing streak at the expense of the Redskins. This week,
Detroit takes its act to Soldier Field to face the Bears. And,
surprisingly, this NFC North matchup has proven pretty good for the
Lions lately, as they’ve covered their last two trips to Soldier Field
and 4 of their last 5 overall vs. Chicago. As for the Bears, please
note that they haven’t been offering much value lately as home
chalk, covering just 3 of their last 12 laying points at home.

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES

TENNESSEE by 13 over Jacksonville
CINCINNATI by 15 over Cleveland
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Dallas-Denver game

HOUSTON 31 - Oakland 17—Since Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff are
unlikely to be reactivated, it’s doubtful that JaMarcus Russell (only 170 YP last
2 starts!) and the modern-day Oakland receiving corps (rated w-a-a-y-y below
league standards) can expose Houston’s ongoing secondary deficiencies that
were most recently exploited by the Jags’ David Garrard. But Gary Kubiak
needs primarily to focus vs. the run to beat this foe, and the Texans can at least
get back to .500 with Matt Schaub (757 YP & 7 TDP last two) and their
enormous QB edge. JaMarcus might not match those numbers until
Halloween.
(08-OAK. 27-Hou. 16...17-17 O.34/139 H.22/90 H.19/36/1/234 O.18/25/0/223 O.1 H.0)
(08-OAKLAND +7' 27-16...SR: Houston 3-1)

Tennessee 26 - JACKSONVILLE 13—It didn’t take Tennessee long
to lose as many games (3) as it did all of the 2008 regular season. But the
Titans’ suspect coverage not as likely to be illuminated by Jacksonville’s lowrisk
pass attack (QB David Garrard only 2 TDP). And Tennessee’s fine LBs
capable of focusing on top Jag Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s time for Titan’s OL and
RBs to take over. We trust Jeff Fisher to get them to do so. J’ville just 1-8 vs.
line last 9 as host.
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(08-Tenn. 24-JACK. 14...J.17-13 J.32/140 T.33/114 T.13/23/1/230 J.13/30/1/117 T.0 J.0)
(08-TENNESSEE +3 17-10, Tennessee -2' 24-14...SR: Tennessee 17-12)

Baltimore 24 - NEW ENGLAND 22—Getting in Tom Brady’s face (and we
don’t mean the way Gisele Bundchen does) has long been the best way to
disrupt the New England attack, something that Atlanta’s pass rushers couldn’t
quite do last week. But Ray Lewis and friends much better equipped to harass
Brady and disrupt the Patriot attack the way former Baltimore d.c. Rex Ryan did
with the Jets two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick’s stop unit still adjusting
to the departure of many longtime contributors, and the unflappable Joe Flacco
having no trouble digesting the expanded playbook. Ravens 17-5 vs. line under
John Harbaugh!
(07-New England -19' 27-24...SR: New England 4-0)

Cincinnati 24 - CLEVELAND 9—Cleveland’s moribund offense went
TD-less again last week at Baltimore, marking the 8th time in their last 9 games
that the Brownies’ attack hasn’t scored a TD! But fact is even Otto Graham in
his heyday might have had trouble doing much better than Brady Quinn or
Derek Anderson (3 ints. off the bench last week) with the shortage of skillposition
weapons that have rendered Cleveland impotent. Carson Palmer and
his more-accomplished weaponry far more likely to score deciding points.
Cincy’s good young LBs good match vs. Browns (7 ppg their last 9).
(08-Cle. 20-CINCY 12...Cl.19-14 Cl.40/134 Ci.16/69 Ci.21/35/3/142 Cl.15/24/1/127 Cl.1 Ci.2)
(08-Cincy 14-CLE. 0...Cl.13-12 Ci.46/191 Cl.29/137 Ci.5/9/0/55 Cl.12/22/4/45 Ci.1 Cl.0)
(08-Cleveland +2 20-12, Cincinnati +2' 14-0...SR: Cleveland 36-35)

NY Giants 28 - KANSAS CITY 13—Normally we might be a bit hesitant to
recommend a team playing its third straight on the road. But if there’s an
exception to that unwritten rule, it’s probably the Giants, who have so enjoyed
escaping the swamplands and refineries of northern New Jersey that they’ve
covered 25 of their last 32 away from their soon-to-be-demolished
Meadowlands home! And we’re not convinced that 0-3 K.C. can exploit N.Y.’s
myriad defensive injuries that almost appear to be a gridiron version of the
across-the-Hudson Mets’ infirmary. Matt Cassel won’t be as effective as new
HC Haley would like if Larry Johnson can’t do better than his current 2.5 ypc.
(05-NY GIANTS -3 27-17...SR: NY Giants 9-2)

CHICAGO 24 - Detroit 20—Although comparisons to Bobby Layne’s last
Detroit title team in ‘57 are a bit premature, at least the Lions are no longer being
mentioned along with John McKay’s expansion T.B. Bucs after winning their
first game in 21 months last week vs. the Redskins. And there are some notso-
subtle developments in Motown indicating things might continue to improve,
as Detroit has a credible ground threat in RB Kevin Smith (101 YR last week) to
take some pressure off rookie Matthew Stafford (no ints. last week for first
time). Chicago’s Jay “Cut-ting it close-ler” leaving it late for Bears every week.
Note Lions have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
(08-Chi. 34-DET. 7...C.21-12 C.34/97 D.13/54 C.24/34/0/328 D.21/39/1/131 C.1 D.1)
(08-CHI. 27-Det. 23...D.21-18 C.30/154 D.26/53 D.28/47/2/280 C.17/33/1/166 C.1 D.1)
(08-Chicago -3' 34-7, CHICAGO -12' 27-23...SR: Chicago 89-64-5)

WASHINGTON 23 - Tampa Bay 10—Washington still plenty tough on
defense (16 ppg). But offense continues to be plagued by negatives. Unhappy
QB. RG Randy Thomas out for the rest of the year. Clinton Portis bone spurs
in both ankles. And Hall of Fame QB Sonny Jurgensen leading complaints
about Jim Zorn’s play-calling. But Washington’s problems seem to pale in
comparison with those of Tampa Bay, which managed 5 first downs and 86 total
yards in its shutout last week vs. NYG! Maybe try the “under” (Jim Zorn’s Skins
14-4-1 “under”)? (07-TAMPA BAY -3' 19-13...SR: Tampa Bay 9-8)

INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Seattle 13—Seattle fighting hard, even with 7-8 starters
out, including QB Matt Hasselbeck. Two geeked FGs by Olindo Mare were
painful in last week’s 25-19 loss vs. Chicago. However, “Practically Perfect
Peyton” Manning has been nearly that so far TY, helped by impressive new
contributors RB Donald Brown, WR Pierre Garcon & WR Austin Collie.
Seahawks’ front seven gave up 256 YR last road start at S.F.
(05-SEATTLE -9' 28-13...SR: Indianapolis 5-4)

NEW ORLEANS 23 - NY Jets 20—This year’s offensive go-with team vs.
this year’s defensive go-with team! Can Rex Ryan’s defense faze the
seemingly unflappable Drew Brees (no TDP last week in Buffalo). The Saints’
defense feasted on young QBs its first two games, stealing three aerials each
from Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb, then one last week from Trent Edwards.
But heady Jets rookie Mark Sanchez has only 2 ints. in 3 starts, and has found
a go-to guy in Jericho Cotchery. N.Y.’s defense has allowed only 2 TDs TY.
(05-New Orleans +2 21-19...SR: EVEN 5-5)

Buffalo 19 - MIAMI 17—Tony Sparano certainly no Tony Soprano at home,
covering only 2 of 10 chances despite reviving the Dolphin fortunes LY. But it’s
always curious in the NFL how things can change from year to year, as Miami
proved LY and are doing so again TY! Dolphins having major problems passing
downfield and generating TDs in the red zone. Prefer the points and Edwards,
who has a cast of receivers to test the Miami pass defense.
(08-MIAMI 25-Buf. 16...19-19 B.27/119 M.27/52 M.22/30/0/306 B.21/35/1/220 M.1 B.3)
(08-Miami 16-BUF. 3...M.18-13 M.34/115 B.18/84 M.23/29/0/180 B.13/27/1/79 M.0 B.1)
(08-MIAMI +1 25-16, Miami +1' 16-3 at Toronto...SR: Miami 52-37-1)

SAN FRANCISCO 24 - St. Louis 10—49ers undefeated at home (4-0 SU; 3-
1 vs. spread) since Mike Singletary’s famous rant LY when he exclaimed, “I
want winners!” It appears he’s found quite a few, led by RB Frank Gore (check
ankle sprain), RB Glen Coffee, and unspectacular ball-control QB Shaun Hill.
Rams’ stop unit marginally improved under defensive-minded HC Steve
Spaguolo. But S.F. takes early control of NFC West with a victory in this one,
making Niners 3-0 in division with a win over each foe. S.F. “under” 6 of last 7
as host.
(08-S. FRN. 35-St. Lou. 16...St.22-19 Sf.36/135 St.23/126 St.34/53/2/280 Sf.15/21/0/199 Sf.2 St.1)
(08-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.21-15 St.39/129 Sf.17/83 St.20/37/1/214 Sf.18/34/3/190 Sf.1 St.0)
(08-SAN FRANCISCO -6' 35-16, San Francisco -5 17-16...SR: St. Louis 60-57-2)

UNDER THE TOTAL DENVER 19 - Dallas 14—Denver’s off-season
defensive moves working out marvelously (Broncs “under” all 3 TY). Former
S.F. HC Mike Nolan’s wise change as defensive coordinator to a 3-4 front. OLB/
DE Elvis Dumervil has collected 6 sacks. LB Andra Davis is a 3-4 veteran from
Cleveland. S Brian Dawkins is a leader, hitter, and “coach on the field.” No. 2
pick Alphonso Smith is a quick nickel-back. CB André Goodman & S Renaldo
Hill have been solid (Do you think Miami misses them?). On offense, WR
Brandon Marshall is keeping his mouth shut, and rookie RB Knowshon Moreno
is earning his stripes. Dallas hasn’t played at Mile High in 11 years and has
perhaps the heaviest OL in the league. Will it get gassed?
(05-Denver -2 24-21 (OT)...SR: EVEN 5-5)

*PITTSBURGH 24 - San Diego 23—Chargers played twice at Heinz Field
LY, one when the “zebras” robbed the Steelers of the cover by incorrectly
nullifying a late fumble return TD by Troy Polamalu, and the second when
Pittsburgh out-rushed S.D. 165-15 in the divisional round of the playoffs.
LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) missed that game, and he’s missed the last two
TY (ankle). Shawne Merriman (check status) also not 100%. But the Polish
Pair (C Mruczkowski & G Dombrowski) are holding their own in the OL, and QB
Philip Rivers is on the beam. Steelers “over” 67% last 70 at Heinz. TV—NBC
(08-PITT 11-S. Diego 10...P.24-16 P.28/124 S.22/66 P.31/41/0/286 S.15/26/2/152 P.0 S.0)
(08-PITT 35-S. Diego 24...P.22-15 P.42/165 S.12/15 S.21/35/1/275 P.17/27/0/177 P.0 S.

*MINNESOTA 27 - Green Bay 26—This is the payback game vs. Green
Bay’s GM Ted Thompson that Brett Favre contends he hasn’t been waiting for
(wink, wink, nod, nod). And more kudos to the Kiln, Mississppi product for his
trademark laser heave to Greg Lewis last week to burn the 49ers. But Aaron
Rodgers and the Packers will be fired up as well. And history has shown that
the best way to deal with the “Williams Wall” is to go over it, as many teams have
done before. And the Pack has armed Rodgers with plenty of capable
receivers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-G. BAY 24-Minn. 19...G.21-15 M.33/187 G.27/139 G.18/22/0/178 M.16/35/1/168 G.0 M.0)
(08-MINN. 28-G. Bay 27...M.18-12 M.41/220 G.18/74 M.15/28/3/141 G.15/26/0/110 M.0 G.0)
(08-GREEN BAY -2' 24-19, MINNESOTA -2' 28-27...SR: Green Bay 49-46-1)

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1
*WEST VIRGINIA 41 - Colorado 16—Revenge-minded West Virginia owns
almost all the “home-run” threats in this matchup, led by mercurial all-Big East
RB Devine (1609 YR on more than 6 ypc in last 1+ seasons). And sr. QB J.
Brown looking to atone for his five-turnover (4 ints., 1 fumble) stink bomb at
Auburn. As long as Mountaineers (10 giveaways last 2 games) stop being so
magnanimous, they should easily outdistance visiting Colorado & plodding Buff
offense. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-COL. 17-Wv 14 (OT)...C.24-16 W.52/311 C.45/187 C.22/33/1/179 W.10/15/0/43 C.1 W.1)
(08-COLORADO +3 17-14 (OT)...SR: Colorado 1-0)

*Southern Miss 42 - UAB 22—Rapidly-maturing Golden Eagle soph QB A.
Davis’ surrounding weapons are vastly superior to mediocre arsenal possessed
by overburdened UAB sr. signal-caller Webb, who’s accounted for 1053 of
Blazers’ 1552 total yards in 2009. So, compelled to shade series history, which
has seen USM win 9 straight meetings while also covering 6 of last 7.
(08-S. MISS 70-Uab 14...S.24-14 S.62/463 U.27/96 S.7/8/0/147 U.16/23/4/127 S.0 U.2)
(08-USM -8' 70-14 07-Usm -11 37-7 06-USM -14' 25-20...SR: Southern Miss 9-0)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2

*Pittsburgh 34 - LOUISVILLE 23—Sr. QB Stull (6 TDP, no ints. in last three
games) piloting percolating Panther attack with more patience & composure
than last season, and he’s got top-notch ground support in true frosh RB D.
Lewis. Cardinals still lack overall manpower due to loss of more than 20
scholarship players soon after third-year HC Kragthorpe took helm, and not
sure L’ville jr. QB Burke will be able to take full advantage of suspect Pitt
secondary. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-PITT 41-Lvl. 7...L.17-14 L.30/96 P.34/90 P.16/28/0/230 L.19/38/2/203 P.0 L.3)
(08-PITT -6' 41-7 07-LVL. -10 24-17 06-Lvl. -10' 48-24...SR: Louisville 7-5)

*BYU 38 - Utah State 22—With public “unloading” on wounded BYU in 42-23
victory over Col. St. (line closed at 19½-pts.), suggest taking artificially inflated
number with undervalued Utah St. squad, now 15-6 vs. spread last 21 on board.
Aggies multi-tasking jr. QB Borel, versatile RB Turbin (373 YR; 8.7 ypc; 9
catches last 2 weeks) & mates able to trade much of the way with Cougar squad,
who allowed Rams’ inexperienced QB Stucker to throw for 372. Mendenhall’s
crew just 5-8 last 13 as chalk.
(08-Byu 34-UTAH ST. 14...U.23-19 U.43/129 B.30/103 B.23/37/2/303 U.16/27/1/193 B.0 U.3)
(08-Byu -29 34-14 06-BYU -27 38-0...SR: BYU 42-33-3)

MINNESOTA by 10 over Wisconsin
TULANE by 6 over Army
WASHINGTON Plus over Notre Dame
WESTERN MICHIGAN by 5 over Northern Illinois

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3

SYRACUSE 21 - South Florida 20—Loss of record-setting sr. QB Grothe
(knee) for season certainly not addition by subtraction for USF, although new
RS frosh triggerman Daniels (2 TDP & 126 YR at Florida State) looked pretty
darn good in leading Bulls to upset road win over Seminoles. That won’t keep
us from grabbing points with rejuvenated Syracuse, however, as resourceful
Orange QB Paulus (71% last two games) fully capable of engineering upset
victory of his own.
(08-S. FLA. 45-Syr. 13...Sf.26-11 Sf.46/239 Sr.27/101 Sf.19/26/0/248 Sr.11/27/0/129 Sf.1 Sr.1)
(08-USF -24 45-13 07-Usf -17' 41-10 06-USF -10 27-10...SR: South Florida 4-0)

MARSHALL 24 - East Carolina 20—Beleaguered Marshall HC Snyder has hit
on winning formula recently, riding star jr. RB Marshall (389 YR & 4 TDs last two
games!) and veteran Herd defense (allowed only 2 TDs same span) to back-toback
victories. Pirates have captured 7 of last 8 in C-USA play straight up, but
ECU just 3-12 vs. spread in last 15 board games overall.
(08-ECU 19-Mar. 16 (OT)...E.20-16 M.36/155 E.38/100 E.15/21/1/191 M.12/22/1/114 E.1 M.0)
(08-ECU -8 19-16 (OT) 07-MAR. +7 26-7 06-ECU -7 33-20...SR: East Carolina 7-3)

PURDUE 24 - Northwestern 23—Tough to see Purdue getting off the floor
after disappointing late loss at home to Notre Dame last week. Boilers have
underachieved lately after facing the Irish, and intense Northwestern HC
Fitzgerald should have his defense ready for a much better effort this week. NU
QB Kafka producing (23rd in total offense) and spreading the ball around (4 avg.
4-5 catches per game). Frosh Wildcat RB Fields (5 ypc, 3 TDR in relief) can
compensate if Simmons can’t go.
(08-NORTH. 48-Purdue 26...23-23 N.43/191 P.25/158 P.31/51/3/308 N.21/34/1/260 N.2 P.2)
(08-NWU -4 48-26 07-PURDUE -13 35-17 06-Purdue -7 31-10...SR: Purdue 49-26-1)

MINNESOTA 30 - Wisconsin 20—This is first road game for
Wisconsin, which has dropped 8 of last 11 SU and 9 of last 12 vs. the points
when traveling. Minny WR Decker has 4 TD catches in last 2 games, and
Gopher RB Bennett is coming off 3-TD game at Northwestern. Wiscy QB
Tolzien (67% in ‘09; 6 TDP last 2 games) is giving Badger HC Bielema a boost,
but defense and special teams are below his standards. Gopher “D” yielding
just 3.3 ypc & held Wisconsin to just 2.6 ypc in last year’s meeting.
(08-WIS. 35-Minn. 32...W.17-13 W.45/116 M.29/99 W.18/31/0/242 M.15/30/1/202 W.3 M.2)
(08-WIS. -14 35-32 07-Wis. -13' 41-34 06-WIS. -8 48-12...SR: Minnesota 59-51-8)

N. Carolina St. 33 - WAKE FOREST 26—Sure, there are plenty of chinks in
State’s defensive armor. But suffice to say we have no interest in going against
money-making Wolfpack mentor O’Brien (16-5 vs. spread last 21 on board!)
and his soph QB wunderkind Wilson, who’s fired 4 TDP in each of last three
games while extending his NCAA-record streak of 364 pass attempts without
an interception. TV-ESPNU
(08-NCS 21-W. For. 17...N.21-18 N.39/149 W.30/98 W.22/34/1/240 N.16/33/0/152 N.1 W.0)
(08-NCS +3' 21-17 07-WFU -6' 38-18 06-Wfu +3 25-23...SR: North Carolina St. 61-35-6)

Clemson 31 - MARYLAND 13—Home field a negligible edge (at best) for
Maryland, as increasingly-mutinous College Park faithful eager to vent their
frustration on HC Friedgen and his bumbling 1-3 Terps (9 giveaways in last 2
games). Scintillating sr. RB Spiller & Clemson’s swarming defense enough to
lead Tigers to comfy road victory. TV-ESPNU
(08-Mary. 20-CLEM. 17...C.19-11 C.41/221 M.29/123 M.16/30/0/172 C.15/22/1/151 M.0 C.2)
(08-Mary. +11 20-17 07-Clem. -3' 30-17 06-Mary. +18' 13-12...SR: Clemson 30-25-1)

NORTH CAROLINA 23 - Virginia 16—Wouldn’t sell Carolina short based
solely on last week’s decisive setback at Georgia Tech. After all, speedy Tar
Heel defense matches up much better against Virginia’s nascent spread than it
did vs. withering Jacket ground attack. Cav offense not outclassed by
sputtering UNC, however, especially with sr. QB Sewell’s confidence bolstered
by 312 YP in recent close loss at Southern Miss.
(08-VA. 16-N. Car. 13 (OT)...N.19-15 N.48/166 V.27/58 V.24/38/0/217 V.16/26/2/166 V.0 N.1)
(08-UVA +4' 16-13 (OT) 07-Uva +3 22-20 06-UVA -6 23-0...SR: North Carolina 57-52-4)

Florida State 27 - BOSTON COLLEGE 26—Enigmatic Florida State heaped
88 points on Miami & BYU, but Seminoles mustered just 26 vs. Jacksonville
State & South Florida. BC’s blue-collar defense battling hard for well-liked HC
Spaziani, and 25-year-old former baseball player Shinskie solidified his hold on
Eagle QB job with 3 TDP last week.
(08-Bos. Col. 27-FLA. ST. 17...B.23-18 B.47/176 F.24/73 F.16/32/3/212 B.14/27/1/181 B.2 F.0)
(08-Bc +6' 27-17 07-Fsu +6' 27-17 06-Bc +6' 24-19...SR: Florida State 4-3)
Central Michigan 38 - BUFFALO 21—Lack of viable rush attack and fact that
defense has just 1 takeaway in first 4 games are main problems for Buffalo.
CMU 3-0 against the points, and offense is humming, scoring 48 pts. in each of
the last two games as QB LeFevour is off a 4-TDP game against Akron. Buffalo
ranks 110th in sacks, and if Bulls can’t pressure LeFevour, he’ll kill play matador.
(08-C. MICH. 27-Buf. 25...C.21-18 C.39/208 B.30/66 B.23/33/0/270 C.21/26/0/152 C.1 B.0)
(08-CMU -7 27-25 06-Cmu -15 55-28...SR: Central Michigan 4-1)

Toledo 35 - BALL STATE 34—Find it difficult to lay points on the road with
Toledo side that’s yielded 40 ppg this season. Ball State has covered two
straight, and managed to put up 30 points on Auburn last week (albeit by gaining
just 260 yds.). Card RS frosh QB Page is dropping in class, and RB MiQuale
Lewis ran for 157 yds. & 2 scores in last year’s meeting against the Rockets.
(08-Ball St. 31-TOLEDO 0...B.24-11 B.44/240 T.19/14 B.18/30/0/242 T.21/31/1/143 B.0 T.0)
(08-Bsu -7 31-0 07-BSU -6' 41-20 06-Bsu +4' 20-17...SR: Ball State 17-16-1)

Alabama 35 - KENTUCKY 10—UK mentor Rich Brooks lamented following
the 41-7 home bashing vs. Florida, “We got our fannies kicked all over the field
in every phase.” Rich, expect more of the same from defensively-overpowering
Bama aggregate (allowed just 4 TDs in 4 games; 1.7 ypc) that quickly cooledoff
Arkansas’ previously-hot QB Mallett (12 of 35 before benching). Tide’s
smart, new QB McElroy (66%, 7 TDP, 1 int.) and his deep backfield does further
damage to bruised and battered Wildcat defense that permitted Gators to pile
up 362 YR. Saban’s national-title contenders 6-1 vs. spread last 7 away.
(08-ALA. 17-Kentucky 14...A.15-12 A.49/282 K.20/35 K.20/42/1/241 A.7/17/1/106 A.2 K.1)
(08-ALABAMA -15' 17-14...SR: Alabama 34-2-1)

*Mississippi 24 - VANDERBILT 22—Though Ole Miss & QB Snead (only 7 of
21 vs. So. Car.) have had extra time to stew over poll-dropping 16-10 upset loss
in Columbia, Rebels won’t necessarily bounce back vs. Vandy squad with
confidence restored following resounding 36-17 victory at Rice (even if it’s only
the Owls). ‘Dores competent QB L. Smith works play-action vs. smallish, overaggressive
Ole Miss 2ndary unaided by weak pass rush (only 3 sacks so far).
Note, Rebels just 1-5 as road chalk since ‘04, while Bobby Johnson’s contingent
has covered 7 of past 8 in series and is 9-2 last 11 as a desired dog.
(08-Vandy 23-MISS. 17...M.16-11 M.40/201 V.41/131 M.12/25/4/184 V.9/12/0/71 V.2 M.2)
(08-Vandy +7 23-17 07-VANDY -6 31-17 06-MISS. +1' 17-10...SR: Miss. 46-35-2)
Cincinnati 45 - MIAMI-OHIO 10—Long-dormant Miami-O attack finally
registering a pulse after switch to RS frosh QB Dysert (337 YP & 107 YR despite
yet another RedHawk loss last week at Kent State). But no reason for Cincy to
be flat vs. longtime nearby rival after sluggish effort vs. Fresno and with “bye”
week on deck. Miami “D” (42 ppg) routinely gashed thus far, which means fun
time for Bearcat QB Pike and friends. RedHawks 4-15 vs. spread last 19.
08-CINCY 45-Miami 20...M.22-20 C.31/152 M.30/66 C.20/24/0/241 M.28/44/1/235 C.2 M.0)
(08-CINCY -12 45-20 07-Cincy -7 47-10 06-CINCY -11' 24-10...SR: Miami-Ohio 59-47-7)

Temple 38 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 30—See little percentage in backing 0-3
Eastern Michigan at Rynearson Stadium, where the Eagles have dropped 8 of
last 10 spread decisions. EMU owns the worst rush defense in the nation and
ranks 112th in total offense. Temple is 4-0 in the series, and after covering
before 105,000 at Penn State, doubt Owls will be fazed by playing before
14,000 or fewer (maybe far fewer) in Ypsilanti.
(08-TEMPLE 55-E. Mich. 52...E.32-21 E.19/68 T.34/67 E.50/76/0/484 T.21/37/0/370 T.1 E.0)
(08-TEMPLE -10' 55-52...SR: Temple 4-0)

Tulane 27 - ARMY 21—Tulane happy to be facing Army after bumping
heads with high powered attacks of BYU (possible MWC champ) and Tulsa
(ditto in C-USA) in first 2 games. Green Wave capable of playing ball control
with sr. RB Andre Anderson, who had 199 YR last week vs. McNeese State.
Anderson is a good complement to QB Kemp (16th in pass eff.) and WR J.
Williams (2nd in rec. yds.). Black Knights couldn’t separate themselves from
Duke or Ball State in recent West Point tilts and might soon be requesting
reinforcements from Defense Secretary Bob Gates.
(08-Army 44-TULANE 13...T.25-13 A.44/291 T.38/156 T.26/42/3/330 A.4/5/0/43 A.0 T.1)
(08-Army +19' 44-13 07-ARMY -6 20-17 (OT) 06-TULANE -5 42-28...SR: Tulane 8-7-1)

Virginia Tech 37 - DUKE 13—Don’t dismiss Tech’s 15 covers in last 18 on
ACC road as some fluky technical trend. As usual, Hokies’ righteous rushing
(soph RB R. Williams has 492 yards & 8 TDs) and play-making defense &
special teams (74 non-offensive TDs since 1999—most in nation) a winning
combination for visitors.
(08-VA. TECH 14-Duke 3...V.19-6 V.47/187 D.40/116 V.14/25/3/147 D.2/9/4/20 V.2 D.0)
(08-TECH -16 14-3 07-Tech -13' 43-14 06-DUKE -35 36-0...SR: Virginia Tech 9-7)

Washington 23 - NOTRE DAME 27—With WR Floyd out and RB corps
depleted, Notre Dame not exactly possessing Sonny Liston-like KO power
these days. And since we can assume any U-Dub celebration hangover after
USC shocker now a distant memory after Stanford result, Charlie Weis might
have to call upon leprechauns once more to survive. Jake Locker can capitalize
upon Irish “D” still plagued by poor tackling, and UW already has competed on
even terms with better than ND (LSU & USC). Will Ty Willingham be watching?
TV—NBC
(08-N. Dame 33-WASH. 7...N.25-9 N.49/252 W.23/26 N.15/28/1/207 W.11/25/0/98 N.0 W.0)
(08-Notre Dame -10' 33-7...SR: Notre Dame 7-0)

GEORGIA 34 - Lsu 28—LSU had an amazing goal-line stand to preserve 30-
26 win at Miss. State, but Tigers showed some chinks in Starkville (meager 30
YR; allowed 354 yds. vs. undynamic Bulldog attack). Look for UGA’s
productive QB Cox (6 TDP last two weeks) to outperform LSU’s unfinished pilot
Jefferson (reportedly has “mechanical” problems), with help from uncoverable
6-4 soph WR Green, who has league-leading 25 catches for 428 yds. Dawgs
surely spending extra practice on ball security after 12 TOs so far. And Miles’
overpriced squad just 2-11 vs. spread last 13 reg.-season games. TV—CBS
(08-Georgia 52-LSU 38...L.21-16 G.36/194 L.41/188 L.16/30/3/309 G.17/26/0/249 G.0 L.0)
(08-Georgia +1 52-38...SR: LSU 14-12-1)

NAVY 27 - Air Force 18—It’s become a crusade at Air Force to end 6-game
losing streak vs. despised rival from Annapolis. But Navy takes joy in torturing
fellow academy foes these days, and dynamics really not too different from
recent years when Mids have dominated series. Except that Falcs (no offensive
TDs last week vs. SDS) perhaps even more land-locked than usual if soph QB
Jefferson still out and backup Dietz piloting attack. A little more ammo in Navy
option version with exciting QB Dobbs running the show.
(08-Navy 33-A. FORCE 27...A.20-13 A.56/227 N.56/206 A.12/21/0/184 N.1/2/0/38 N.2 A.2)
(08-Navy +5 33-27 07-NAVY -2' 31-20 06-Navy +2' 24-17...SR: Air Force 25-16)