Newsletters Dec 17 - Dec 21

CKO

10 MIAMI over *Tennessee
MIAMI 23 - *Tennessee 13

10 CLEVELAND over *Kansas City
CLEVELAND 21 - *Kansas City 12

The Dolphins, built by Bill Parcells to run with power, are now 6-0 SU in the month of December under HC Tony Sparano. And, with their talented rookie CBs Sean Smith & Vontae Davis now experienced, the Miami front seven should bring lots of pressure, and keep Vince Young (check status) in the pocket, if necessary. Power-armed QB Chad Henne developing rapport with WRs Davone Bess & Greg Camarillo (24 combined recs. last two games). Browns are probably two fruitful offseasons away before they will have enough quality personnel on offense to challenge in the rugged AFC North. But they are developing just enough late in this current season (four straight covers) to challenge fellow laggers, like 3-10 Kansas City. Browns’ Wildcat QB Josh Cribbs a force, and HC Mangini says his young replacements in the middle of his defense developing rapidly.

* - Denotes Home Team RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

TOTALS: UNDER (43½) in the Houston-St. Louis Game——Texans’ improving defense has meant 8 “unders” last 10 games...OVER (58½) in the Middle Tennessee-Southern Miss Game (New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 20)...Both teams live by their attack units; Superdome the perfect venue for scoring...OVER (42) in the N.Y. Giants-Washington Game (Mon., Dec. 21)——Redskins “over” 6 of last 7; whatever happened to the Giants’ defense?

NINE-RATED GAMES: GREEN BAY (+1) at Pittsburgh——Packers’ OL has stabilized; is Green Bay’s 3-4 defense better than Steelers’ non-Polamalu 3- 4?...SMU (+15) vs. Nevada (Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24)——Wolf Pack’s offense not as devastating away from Reno; June Jones knows the ropes in Honolulu and has RB Shawnbrey McNeal to play some ball control.

THE GOLD SHEET

MEXICO BOWL
WYOMING (6-6) vs. FRESNO STATE (8-4)
Saturday, December 19 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)

NFresno St. 27 - Wyoming 22—Admittedly, Wyoming’s postseason credentials
are dubious at best, as the Cowboys barely scraped their way to bowl
eligibility courtesy of numerous hair-raising wins (four of them by 3 points or
fewer) and despite an offense that failed to generate a TD in three of its last six
games. Further, Wyo wasn’t within single digits vs. any of the bowl foes (Texas,
Air Force, Utah, BYU or TCU) it faced this season. Is it asking too much of the
Cowboys to stay competitive vs. potent Fresno?

Not necessarily, simply because the Bulldogs have far more flaws than the
aforementioned list of “bowlers” that beat the Cowboys earlier in the year.
Especially on the defensive side, where Fresno hardly distinguished itself when
ranking a poor 97th overall and allowing three different foes to crack the 50-point
barrier. Thus, the evolving Wyo spread installed by first-year HC Dave
Christensen (who coordinated recent potent Missouri versions featuring Chase
Daniel) might have a chance to do more business than usual. Although hardly
prolific with maturing true frosh QB Austyn Carta-Samuels at the controls,
Christensen’s “O” at least didn’t beat itself, guilty of only 13 giveaways (compared
to a crippling 36 for Joe Glenn’s last team a year ago) and rarely forced
a representative, upperclass-laden Cowboy “D” into dreaded “short field”
situations. By comparison, the Bulldogs committed almost twice as many TOs
(23), which could compromise their admitted firepower edge courtesy nowhealthy
RB Ryan Mathews (1664 YR).

Moreover, FSU’s postseason pointspread history under HC Pat Hill is formful,
covering all five chances as a dog but dropping all four vs. the line as chalk,
including LY in this game vs. Colorado State. TGS WAC sources also wonder
about the Bulldogs’ focus after an exhausting season-ending shootout Dec. 5 at
Illinois, and they confirmed reports that Hill has shown interest in the vacant
UNLV job. Those and other factors are enough to swing our support to a Wyo
bunch that offered good value (8-3 vs. line) all season.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
UCF (8-4) vs. RUTGERS (8-4)
Saturday, Dec. 19 Night at St. Petersburg, FL (FieldTurf)

*UCF 21 - Rutgers 19—Head coach Greg Schiano has taken Rutgers from
perennial Big East punching bag to perennial post-season participant during
the last decade, and his Scarlet Knights have won their bowl game each of the
previous three seasons. Although UCF’s Conference USA title hopes were
irreparably damaged by September road losses at East Division rivals Southern
Miss & East Carolina, the Golden Knights (9-2 vs. the spread!) finished strong,
capturing their final six C-USA games while also mounting credible efforts vs.
Miami and at No. 2-ranked Texas (where George O’Leary’s plucky bunch trailed
just 21-3 early in the fourth quarter despite holding out starting QB Brett Hodges
& star RB Brynn Harvey with minor injuries).

This matchup is likely to be dominated by the defenses. Rutgers’ stop unit
(only 312 ypg) permitted 15 points or fewer in seven of its last 11 games,
allowing more than 24 only once during that span. UCF has begrudgingly
yielded foes just 83 ypg on the ground, ranking No. 4 in the nation behind only
the Longhorns and UT’s fellow “undefeateds” Alabama & TCU. Even though
touted true frosh WR Mohamed Sanu sparked the Scarlet Knights’ plodding
rushing attack down the stretch as a “Wildcat” formation QB, we doubt that
Rutgers will be able to establish a consistent ground game against the stingy,
veteran Golden Knight front 7. And, if play-action fakes aren’t buying extra time
for skittish true frosh signal caller Tom Savage (only 43%, 2 TDP, 4 ints. in last 3
games), the poor-protecting Scarlet Knight OL probably won’t be able to keep QBcrunching
UCF DEs Bruce Miller & Jarvis Geathers (combined 23 sacks!) at bay.
Although blitz-happy Rutgers possesses a penchant for “takeaways,” the
Golden Knights (40 ppg in last 3) were definitely jelling on offense late in the
campaign after mustering a nation’s-worst 230 ypg in 2008. Sr. QB Hodges
(1047 YP on 64% in his last 4 games) and soph RB Harvey (388 YR & 7 TDs
last 3), along with friendly Trop venue (St. Petersburg is just over 100 miles
from UCF campus), give the Knights in Gold a good chance to trump those
wearing Scarlet.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (9-3) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (7-5)
Sunday, December 20 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Middle Tennessee State 37 - Southern Miss 35—It’s not easy to choose
between these two bankroll-friendly teams. After all, Southern Miss has
covered five of its last six games, while Middle Tennessee State is 9-2 vs. the
pointspread since its opening loss at Clemson, including six straight wins &
covers in Sun Belt play to close the regular season.

Conference USA scouts have been giving Golden Eagle head coach Larry
Fedora consistently high grades during his two years at Hattiesburg, and the
former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator was able to keep USM’s attack
humming during the second half of this season despite losing starting QB
Austin Davis in the first week of October. Lightly-experienced jr. Martevious
Young threw 13 TDP vs. just one interception in the last six games, and he has
the two most dynamic weapons on the field in record-setting sr. RB Damion
Fletcher, who needs only 63 YR to reach 1000 for the fourth straight season,
and NFL-caliber 6-6, 230 soph WR DeAndre Brown, who’s burned defenses for
19 TDs and 17 ypc during his first two campaigns. For the Blue Raiders, athletic
jr. QB Dwight Dasher turned out to be a quick study at the trigger of well-traveled
first-year offensive coordinator Tony Franklin’s spread scheme, piloting MTSU
to 31 ppg in 2009 (after just 23 ppg last season). In addition to rushing for 953
yards & 11 TDs so far this year, Dasher has fired 21 TDP to ten different
receivers.

Is either defense likely to stop the opponent’s potent, well-balanced attack?
Not for long, so “over” the total points is probably the best percentage play in this
game. And which side to support? It certainly wouldn’t be a shock to see
favored USM emerge with a victory. But we prefer to take the points with the
Blue Raiders, whose multi-pronged offense, play-making stop unit (106 tackles
for loss—tops in nation!), and solid PKing (soph Alan Gendreau has hit 18 of 21
FGs) look like the makings of a mild upset.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

NEW ORLEANS by 21 over Dallas (Sat., Dec. 19)
SEATTLE by 20 over Tampa Bay
UNDER THE TOTAL in the New England-Buffalo game

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17

*Indianapolis 20 - JACKSONVILLE 19—Indy 6-0 vs. line on the road so
far TY! But the dynamics a bit different now that the top AFC seed has been
secured, along with the record reg.-season win streak (22 and counting).
Remember, Jim Caldwell was on Tony Dungy’s staff the last time Colts got to
13-0 (2005) and were then distracted by “perfect” talk, eventually falling short
of the Super Bowl. So, no surprise if Peyton Manning and others get an early
rest despite 16-0 beckoning invitingly. Postseason-minded Jacksonville
(currently AFC No. 6 seed) has played Indy tough enough lately to suggest it
can take this one to the wire. TV—NFL NETWORK
(09-INDY 14-Jack. 12...I.21-12 J.26/114 I.31/71 I.28/38/1/294 J.14/28/0/114 I.1 J.0)
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0)
(08-Indy 31-JACK. 24...J.28-20 J.27/105 I.18/32 I.29/34/0/364 J.28/41/1/304 I.0 J.0)
(09-INDY -6' 14-12; 08-Jack. +4' 23-21, Indy -6' 31-24...SR: Indianapolis 13-4)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19

*NEW ORLEANS 37 - Dallas 16—After narrow road escapes at
Washington & Atlanta, expect New Orleans to eliminate such drama back at
the rowdy Superdome, where the Saints have regularly extended margins (10-
4 vs. line at home last 14). Sources say HC Sean Payton is indeed motivated
by a potential 16-0 regular season. And N.O. is not about to ease up until NFC
home-field edge is secured (it could happen this week). Dallas pass coverage
vulnerable recently, and pass-rushing LB Demarcus Ware (check status) was
injured last week. Tony Romo (5-10 SU as a starter in December) and rest of
Cowboys appear the in midst of another late-season eclipse. Wade Phillips is
0-6 vs. line on December road since ‘07! TV—NFL NETWORK
(06-New Orleans +7' 42-17...SR: Dallas 14-8)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20

Green Bay 20 - PITTSBURGH 12—Steelers missing the point of the
nostalgia craze by imitating their dreadful late ‘60s teams that featured the
likes of Kent Nix and Dick Shiner at QB, as their recent 5-game tailspin has all
but eliminated them from the playoffs. A quick turnaround is unlikely, with Big
Ben—perhaps reluctant to bolt from the pocket after his recent concussion—
a sitting duck these days for opposing pass rushers (even Cleveland managed
8 sacks). Dom Capers’ 3-4 G.B. defense has shown the depth to overcome
recent injuries to vet CB Al Harris & OLB Aaron Kampman. Big-play element
noticeably absent from Pittsburgh defense with Troy Polamalu on the shelf.
(05-Pittsburgh -3' 20-10...SR: Green Bay 18-13)

Miami 20 - TENNESSEE 16—What a difference a month makes, as
nobody figured this matchup would have playoff implications as of mid-
November. But just as Tennessee has climbed back into the AFC wild card
chase, it might have to return to Kerry Collins at QB after Vince Young pulled
a hamstring last week. Regardless of the QB, compelled to back surging
Miami, especially with Chad Henne recovering nicely from his late-November
meltdown in Buffalo. And Ricky Williams producing consistently in Ronnie
Brown’s absence. Tony Sparano’s defense capable of keeping Chris Johnson
in check after putting the clamps on Jags’ Maurice Jones-Drew (just 3.3 ypc)
last week.
(06-MIA -10' 13-10...SR: Mia 17-14)

UNDER THE TOTAL New England 16 - BUFFALO 13—N.E.’s edges
over Buffalo not quite as pronounced as they’ve been for much of the Patriots’
12-game series win streak. After all, N.E. was fortunate to escape with 25-24
win in season opener, and Pats a very un-Belichick-like 0-5 SU as a visitor TY.
Granted, Buffalo’s offense on short rations. But interim HC Perry Fewell
pushing the right buttons for his opportunistic defense, effectively masking its
deficiencies vs. the run and allowing only 15 ppg last 4. Tom Brady (finger, rib,
shoulder) not looking his usual self, and Randy Moss (only 1 catch last week)
moping after being sent home from practice. Pats 5-1-1 “under” last 7.
(09-N. ENG. 25-Buf. 24...N.28-17 B.19/90 N.23/73 N.39/53/1/368 B.15/25/0/186 N.0 B.1)
(08-N. ENG. 20-Buf. 10...N.24-10 N.43/144 B.18/60 N.23/34/0/226 B.13/23/2/108 N.1 B.0)
(08-N. Eng. 13-BUF. 0...N.16-15 N.47/168 B.35/161 B.14/25/0/115 N.6/8/0/73 N.0 B.1)
(09-N. ENG. -10' 25-24; 08-N. ENG. -3' 20-10, N. Eng. -6 13-0...SR: New England 58-40-1)

Arizona 34 - DETROIT 16—Yes, Matthew Stafford’s shoulder injury is a
concern. But a bigger problem is the porous Detroit pass defense that allowed
69.7% completions through the first 3/4 of the season. That type of leakage is
ominous vs. Kurt Warner, who had 12 TDs and no ints. has last four games prior
to last Monday’s date in San Francisco. G.B.’s Aaron Rodgers tuned up the
Lion defense 348 yards and 3 TDs on Thanksgiving. Dome conditions favor the
more talented visitor.
(07-ARIZ. -2 31-21...SR: Detroit 31-23-5)

PHILADELPHIA 24 - San Francisco 20—Andy Reid has been handed a
contract extension 2013, with his fine December record part of the reason.
Eagles are 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 vs. the spread in the important 12th month the
last 3+ seasons. However, tough-minded Mike Singletary usually gets his team
to play doubly-tough as a dog (7-0-1 last 8 prior to 49ers Monday nighter vs.
Arizona). S.F. has won SU at Arizona, and the 49ers have hung tough TY at the
tough sites of Minnesota, Houston, Indy and Seattle.
(08-Phil. 40-S. FRAN. 26...P.21-14 S.27/131 P.21/103 P.23/36/1/280 S.17/30/2/175 P.0 S.1)
(08-Philadelphia -5 40-26...SR: San Francisco 17-10-1)

NY JETS 23 - Atlanta 13—Falcons (6-7) have never had back-to-back
winning seasons, and injuries to Matt Ryan & Michael Turner have limited them
lately. Beating the Jets in December on the road figures to be a tough task,
especially with New York tops in rushing through 12 games and No. 1 in pass
defense, thanks to Rex Ryan’s persistent quick pressure and tight coverage by
deluxe CB Darrelle Revis (5 ints.), who is likely to draw Falcon flyer Roddy
White. Jets lose little if Kellen Clemens subbing for Mark Sanchez at QB.
(05-ATLANTA -8 27-14...SR: Atlanta 5-4)

BALTIMORE 27 - Chicago 10—Who would have thought at the start of the
season that with LT Orlando Pace added to the OL and Jay Cutler acquired to
boost their passing game that the big, bad Bears would sink to 31st in rushing?
Worse yet, Cutler is now up to 22 ints., and Chicago has dropped six in a row
vs. the number. Playoff-seeking Baltimore got its power ground game going
with 306 YR last week vs. the lowly Lions; might do something similar vs.
overworked Chicago defense that’s depleted at LB spots.
(05-CHICAGO -1' 10-6...SR: Chicago 2-1)

Cleveland 19 - KANSAS CITY 16—Finally, Cleveland is generating
important positives looking forward to 2010. Brady Quinn’s 275 YP & 3 TDs vs.
San Diego. Eight sacks vs. the Steelers. Powerful runs by CFL refugee Chris
Jennings. Emerging TE Evan Moore. Yes, the Browns need more building
before they can contend for the playoffs. But, with “wildcatter” Joshua Cribbs,
they can contend for victory vs. other struggling teams. And if the Chiefs aren’t
struggling behind QB Matt Cassel (6 ints. last 2 games), you’ve got a scoop.
(06-CLEVELAND +5 31-28 (OT)...SR: EVEN 9-9-2)

Houston 27 - ST. LOUIS 10—Rams’ rookie HC Steve Spagnuolo, with the
2009 season already a disaster, invested in the future last week by starting
rookie free agent QB Keith Null, who was tutored at West Texas A&M by none
other than Ryan Leaf! At 6-4, 220, Null has the appearance of an NFL QB. But
with his 5 ints. last week at Tennessee, he had quite the look of an NFL rookie.
Worst yet, the Rams are missing hard-hitting S Oshi Otogwe, the veteran heart
& soul of their defense the last few years. Texans (6-7) are still seeking their
first winning season and have a sliver of wildcard hope. With their improved
defense, they’ve gone “under” 8 of its last 10 TY.
(05-St. Louis -3' 33-27 (OT)...SR: St. Louis 1-0)

SAN DIEGO 20 - Cincinnati 17—Yes, the Bengals are having some
problems scoring (Carson Palmer only 4 TDP the last 6 games). But HC Marvin
Lewis still has plenty of confidence in his defense, especially his secondary of
CBs Leon Hall & Johnathan Joseph and safeties Chris Crocker & Chinedum
Ndukwe. Their coverage skills will be greatly needed vs. the passing game of
Philip Rivers, and Bolts now 16-0 SU in December since ‘06 (11-0 under Norv
Turner). However, with the No. 2 seed in the AFC likely in the balance, expect
the defensively-stubborn Bengals to go down swinging.
(06-San Diego -1 49-41...SR: San Diego 18-11)

DENVER 24 - Oakland 6—The quick Bronco defense shut down the theneasily-
stifled Oakland offense (137 total yards) in the first meeting way back in
Week Three. And the Raiders proved once again last week that they can’t stand
prosperity, with sparkplug QB Bruce Gradkowski sustaining knee injuries.
Denver defenders nabbed three interceptions from Peyton Manning last week
and held him under 50%, while WR Brandon Marshall collected a record 21
receptions. Can’t count on JaMarcus Russell despite his victory at this venue LY.
(09-Denver 23-OAK. 3...D.21-9 D.45/215 O.23/95 D.13/23/0/157 O.12/21/2/42 D.1 O.1)
(08-Denver 41-OAK. 14...D.24-15 O.31/150 D.34/142 D.16/25/0/299 O.17/26/0/167 D.0 O.1)
(08-Oak. 31-DENVER 10...D.23-18 O.41/158 D.28/115 D.16/37/1/204 O.11/12/0/160 O.0 D.1)
(09-Denver -2 23-3; 08-Denver -3 41-14, Oakland +8' 31-10...SR: Oakland 56-41-2)

SEATTLE 26 - Tampa Bay 6—Seattle made it last year, and now it’s
T.B.’s turn to make the long, cross-country trip. The situation greatly favors the
Seahawks and their veteran QBing. Talented Bucs’ rookie Josh Freeman,
plagued by interceptions in bunches early in his career at K-State, has suffered
five & three in his last two games. He is unlikely to deal well with the noisy crowd
at Qwest Field, where Seattle is 4-2 SU & vs. the spread, with three DD
victories. HC Jim Mora Jr., whose prideful defense was embarrassed last week
in Houston, won’t be this week.
(08-T. BAY 20-Sea. 10...T.22-7 S.16/103 T.38/97 T.27/36/0/305 S.12/23/1/73 T.1 S.1)
(08-TAMPA BAY -10' 20-10...SR: Seattle 7-2)

*Minnesota 24 - CAROLINA 13—Carolina is still playing hard, covering two
straight with Matt Moore at QB despite scoring only 26 points. But the matchups
favor the better balanced Vikings now that key CB Antoine Winfield (9 solo
tackles last week vs. Cincy!) is back. Winfield will help neutralize star Panther
WR Steve Smith, and the rugged Minny front seven will inhibit Carolina backs
DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart. Brett Favre (26 TDs, 6 ints.) will now
test problematic biceps outdoors in December. TV—NBC
(08-MINN. 20-Car. 10...M.17-14 M.32/119 C.20/47 M.16/28/1/186 C.17/29/0/157 M.0 C.2)
(08-MINNESOTA -3 20-10...SR: Minnesota 5-3)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21

*WASHINGTON 27 - NY Giants 24—Redskins unlikely to exploit the
deficiencies of the N.Y. back seven as well as did Philly last Sunday night. But
improving Washington (five straight covers; nearly beat the Saints in their last
home start) figures to be a major nuisance for the Giants, with the Skins
playing loosey-goosey with nothing at stake in the playoff race. New
playcaller Sherm Lewis has been a boon for QB Jason Campbell (5 TDs, 1
int. the last two games). TE Fred Davis (4 TDs last three games) is
emerging on offense; DE/LB Brian Orakpo (11 sacks) on defense.
Washington “over” 6 of last 7! TV-ESPN
(09-GIANTS 23-Wash. 17...N.18-15 N.31/103 W.21/85 N.20/29/1/248 W.19/26/1/187 N.1 W.1)
(08-GIANTS 16-Wash. 7...N.21-11 N.32/154 W.24/84 N.19/35/1/200 W.15/27/0/125 N.0 W.0)
(08-Giants 23-WASH. 7...N.23-17 N.35/108 W.18/92 N.21/34/1/296 W.24/39/1/228 N.0 W.1)
(09-NY GIA. -6' 23-17; 08-NY GIA. -4 16-7, NY Gia. -4 23-7...SR: NY Giants 89-62-4)

PLAYBOOK

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Fresno St over Wyoming by 6
We doubt Fresno State HC Pat Hill had neither the 6-6 Wyoming Cowboys
or a late afternoon kickoff in Albuquerque, New Mexico in mind during
his “anyone, anytime, anywhere” mantra. However, for the second
straight year, you’ll fi nd his Bulldogs opening the NCAA Bowl season in
New Mexico’s University Stadium. The good news for Hill and company is
that they won’t be up against the Saturday night New Orleans-Dallas NFL
showdown – that’s reserved for the “highly anticipated” Rutgers-Central
Florida matchup! The bad news: this WAC versus Mountain West pairing
is garnering absolutely no attention. But while today’s meeting certainly
doesn’t have the glamour of the TCU-Boise State contest, this is our type of
game. It has DOG written all over it. For starters, double-digit WAC bowl
favorites are just 1-4 ATS. We’re also drooling over the fact that the favorite
in the last nine Bulldogs’ bowl games is a bite-less 0-9 ATS, including 8
SU losses! Fresno State dropped a 40-35 decision to Colorado State as a
2.5-point choice on this fi eld last season and that ties in nicely to a stat
you can’t possibly fi nd anywhere else but PLAYBOOK: teams returning to
the same bowl are an unlucky 1-13 ATS if they allowed 39 or more points
in their last game of the season. MWC/WAC bowl pairings have certainly
been a puppy-fest, with the dog grabbing the ATS bone in fi ve of the
last six contests, including 4-1 ATS when taking more than eight points.
The Cowboys have also had their share of success as road or neutral dogs
against WAC foes, lassoing the cash eight of ten times. While we give Hill
credit for taking on all comers and receiving a bowl bid for the 10th time in
11 seasons, he might want to rethink his philosophy as his Bulldogs are just
2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS versus fellow bowlers over the last two seasons. In fact,
his troops enter this contest ‘leaking oil’ as they have lost the stats battle in
each of their last fi ve games. The experienced Bulldogs certainly merit the
role of favorites but our feeling here is that the upstart Cowboys, who are
making their fi rst bowl appearance since the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl (when
they upended UCLA, 24-21, as 12-point dogs), are once again in the right
‘place’ at the right ‘time’. Maybe Pat Hill should have taken the advice of
one of our favorites, Bugs Bunny, and “made a left turn at Albuquerque.”
Grab the doubles as it’s another dog-day afternoon.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

Rutgers over Central Florida by 7
A battle of Knights highlights the renewal of the St. Petersburg Bowl when
Rutgers takes on Central Florida at Tropicana Field Saturday evening. For
UCF, the visit is a mere 87 miles down the road from its campus in Orlando.
Rutgers, on the other hand, will journey 1017 miles from New Brunswick,
looking to look to capture its 4th bowl win in as many years. Playing games
in visiting locker rooms has been much to the Scarlet Knights’ liking, where
they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS away of late from Rutgers Stadium. They are
also 10-2 ATS outside of New Brunswick when playing off one loss exact.
Not surprisingly, neither team in this minor bowl fared well in games against
fellow bowl teams this season, where UCF was 2-4 SU and 1-5 ‘In The Stats’
while Rutgers went 2-3 SU and 1-4 in the stat wars. On the surface, it appears
UCF closed strong at 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its fi nal four games. A closer
examination inside the numbers show the southern Knights were outyarded
in three of the four contests. The deciding edge in this game comes from
our College Bowl System Book that tells us to fade teams off three ATS
win in their last three games if they won fi ve or less games the previous
season. That’s because these teams are just 14-32-1 ATS in bowl games since
1980. Sure, there will be more fans in the stands from Central Florida than
Rutgers, but they fi gure to head home disappointed. It’s a better Knight for
Scarlet than it is for the St. Petersburg Chamber of Commerce.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Middle Tenn St over Southern Miss by 3
Southern Miss returns to the scene of their last year’s bowl crime where
they stole one from Troy, 30-27 in OT, as 5-point dogs. Last year they
arrived in New Orleans riding a 4-game winning streak. This year they
enter the Bayou off a loss and our database tells us not to expect a repeat
performance: teams off a season-ending loss this year returning to the
same bowl they won last year are just 3-12 ATS. Despite their 2008 win
over Troy, Conference USA bowlers are just 2-4 ATS versus the Sun Belt. The
Golden Eagles do enter this one on a nice ATS run covering 5 of their last
6 contests but our Midweek Alert informs us they have been laying eggs
when it comes to the yardage battle, dropping their last four games ‘in the
stats.’ In fact, the Eagles are a dove-like 7-32 ‘ITS’ against fellow bowlers
over the last seven seasons. As for the Raiders, they’ve been anything but
“Blue” since mid-October, winning their last six games both SU and ATS.
We realize that bowlers on a 6-0 SU and ATS win skein are just 1-5 ATS as
dogs but we like Rick Stockstill and his infectious style. We also like the fact
that Stockstill is a profi table 16-4 ATS off a SU and ATS win and a perfect
2-0 SU and ATS against Conference USA. With Sun Belt Conference bowl
dogs 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS off a SU and ATS win, we’ll look for the Raiders to
exact some revenge against Conference USA. The Sun Belt shines tonight
in N’Awlins.

PLAYBOOK

Thursday, December 17

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE by 3
With their record-setting 22nd straight regular-season win, including 13
to start this season, the AFC road to the Super Bowl now goes through
Indianapolis. The question is do the Colts avoid the dangers of the high
road and take the path of the low road so they’ll be in Miami “afore ye”
and the rest of the league. If you listen to GM Bill Polian, it doesn’t seem like
a perfect regular season is all that important. We’ll fi nd out soon enough
whether the Colts decide to start resting some players as they have a short
work week to prepare for their Thursday night trip to Jacksonville. Peyton
has been brilliant under the Thursday night lights with a 5-1 SU and 5-0-1
ATS career log, but the Colts have been anything but studs when attempting
a series sweep of the Jags, posting a woeful 0-6 ATS mark. They have also
not fared well in the month of December as favorites off a double-digit
win versus .500 or greater opposition, checking in with a 1-7 ATS record.
Our database also reminds us that since 1980 10-0 or greater NFL teams
are 8-19 ATS when facing avenging opponents. The Jaguars blew a golden
opportunity to take the lead in the AFC wildcard race with a home loss to
Miami and, with a road trip to New England on deck, their playoff hopes
may very well be livning on borrowed time. It’s do-or-die time for HC Jack
Del Rio and we’ll rely on his 20-7 ATS mark as a dog with revenge. We’ll also
rely on our database which informs us that .500 or greater home dogs off
back-to-back home games are 12-6 versus an opponent off a SU win. The
Colts edged Jacksonville, 14-12, at home in the season opener and with the
Jaguars still in the playoff picture, we expect another cat fi ght tonight in,
dare we say… sold out Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

Saturday, December 1

4* BEST BET
Unlike the Colts, the Saints have made it very clear they want to
run the table during the regular season. With only a home game
against Tampa Bay and a road trip to Carolina left on the schedule,
this Saturday night special may very well stand between the Saints
and their shot at infamy. With all that being said, we’ll side with the
December swooning Cowboys – and as a Best Bet, no less. Yes, we
may have dipped into the eggnog a little early this holiday season.
However, we’re sober enough to see that big ol’ noose, disguised as
beads, hanging around the necks of Saints’ players – the same noose
that has caused them to drop fi ve of seven on the ATS scoreboard.
That noose even gets a little heavier when you realize the Saints are
0-3 ATS when playing on Saturday and just 1-8 ATS at home off BB
SU wins versus an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. If the ‘Boys
miss the playoffs for the 2nd straight season, embattled HC Wade
Phillips may be leaving the range sooner than later. Lucky for us, we
catch him in one of his best roles – that of a dog versus undefeated
opposition, where he is a stellar 7-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0
ATS off a loss. Also, lucky for us is this little gem our PLAYBOOK.
com database unearthed: teams off a SU favorite loss from Game
Seven out are 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS versus an undefeated foe. The
feeling here is the Cowboys will be looser away from home and will
be facing less pressure in trying to win a game down the stretch.
D-A-L-L-A-S, at least tonight in New Orleans, spells hangman – and
our AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK on Page 2 confi rms it!
Dallas over NEW ORLEANS by 3

Sunday, December 20

PITTSBURGH over Green Bay by 4
The surging Packers enter the Steel City on a 5-game winning streak. That
streak, coupled with Pittsburgh’s 5-game losing skid, brings tremendous
value to this contest. Since the start of the 2001 season, the Steelers have
played 70 regular-season home games and have been installed as a dog
on only two occasions and a favorite of less than 3 points just four times.
Today you can make it fi ve. And that’s fi ne with us. We’ll throw a little
‘Did You Know’ at you: since 1980, NFL teams off fi ve wins exact playing
an opponent off fi ve losses exact are 0-3 ATS when playing on the road
or in a non-division game. Before backing the Pack, you also may want
to know that since 1980, the Steelers are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home off
a SU favorite loss from Game Thirteen out. Keep a close eye on the line
as our PLAYBOOK database chips in with this little beauty: defending
Super Bowl champions are 22-9-2 ATS as a ‘pick’ or dog when they sport
a losing record, including 5-0-1 ATS at home. With the Steel Curtain 7-1
ATS at home off a SU division loss and the Packers a frosty 1-6-1 ATS after
tangling with the Bears, we’ll look for the defending champs to get back
on track. Big Ben and company at home, taking or laying less than a FG?
As Chris Berman and the Game Day crew say, “C’mon, man!”

Miami over TENNESSEE by 1
There should be a playoff atmosphere around Nashville this week as
the loser of this one will most likely be home for the holidays. The 6-7
Titans will certainly miss the playoffs with another loss and the home
faithful are probably a little restless awaiting the status of QB Vince
Young. And why shouldn’t they be as the Titans are 0-6 SU and ATS
when Kerry Collins has been at the controls this season. The Fish have no
such QB woes as Chad Henne has taken to water since replacing injured
Chad Pennington, winning seven of his 10 starts. After a 0-3 start, the
defending AFC champs fi nd themselves on a 7-3 run and in the thick of
the playoff hunt, just one game behind division-leading New England.
The Dolphins still have two more games before the calendar hits January
and that’s good news for Miami backers as HC Tony Sparano has yet to
lose (6-0 SU) in the month of December, including 4-0 SU on the road.
The Dolphins’ headman is also a fl ipper-like 7-1 ATS away off a SU win.
We’re big fans of Jeff Fisher and applaud the Titans’ turn-around from a
dismal 0-6 start, but when it comes to a road game in December we have
to side with Sparano. No one, you see, is smarter than he – at least not
at this time of the year!

5* BEST BET
“Moss’ time in New England may be slipping away. He gives up early
in games, at least that’s what they say.” Who needs Barry Manilow,
anyway? The Patriots sure don’t but they will need Randy Moss if
they want to hang on to the AFC East lead and challenge the Colts
and the Bolts in this year’s playoffs. The Patriots offense hasn’t been
running on all cylinders of late but we’ll look for Moss to once
again grow fat (as in catches) against a Bills’ squad the Pats have
beaten 12 straight times, averaging 29 PPG in the process. The site
certainly won’t make a difference as the visiting Belichicks have won
the last fi ve games SU by an average score of 33-8. And speaking of
Belichick, he must be one of Santa’s favorites as he has ‘toyed’ with
division opponents since taking over in 2000. He is a merry 10-1 ATS
on the AFC East highway versus a foe off a SU win. We also checked
our list twice and found out that the Pats’ HC is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS
in division road fi nales. And Belichick just doesn’t beat division foes,
he spanks them as well – as evidenced by his 36-9 ATS mark in SU
division wins as a favorite, including 20-3 ATS during the 2nd half of
the season. We all know about San Diego’s 16-game December win
streak but New England has quietly put together a pretty impressive
December resume as well, winning 22 of their last 26 regular season
games. They have also dominated their division in December off a
SU win, posting a solid 17-6 ATS mark. The Bills, on the other hand,
have struggled at home when returning off an away game against
.500 or greater division foes, logging a scrooge-like 2-12 ATS record.
With the hosts 1-8 ATS in their last nine games off a win, we have a
strong yearning Moss, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots are not
quite ready to wave goodbye.
New England over BUFFALO by 15

Arizona over DETROIT by 8
Even with their Monday night loss in San Fran, the Cardinals still have
a solid 2-game grasp on the NFC West. We used the desperate 49ers on
our Late Phone Service and were rewarded with a SU home dog win. We
certainly didn’t expect Arizona to turn the ball over SEVEN TIMES but we
did question what kind of motivation they would arrive with knowing the
Lions and Rams are still on the schedule and another 10-win season and
division title is in the Cards. The initial reaction would be to immediately
back the visitors, knowing the Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games
versus the NFC West and just 3-8 in their last 11 as home dogs. The paradox
here is that home teams off a loss of 40 or more points are 7-4 SU and
9-1-1 ATS since 1980 (fi ll your stocking with that one). We’re also not keen
on laying this kind of number on the road with an Arizona team that has
dropped their last three games in Detroit by a combined score of 97-55
or is just 3-11 ATS away off a SU loss versus non-division foes. Another
stat that has our database on the fritz is the Cardinals’ 4-10 ATS mark
as favorites off a SU loss – with three of those wins this season! Are you
starting to see our dilemma? Ken Whisenhunt’s crew will likely clinch their
2nd straight NFC West title this afternoon in the Motor City but we’re not
interested in going along for the ride. Pass for now.

PHILADELPHIA over San Francisco by 13
The 49ers kept their slim playoff hopes alive against the fumbling Cardinals
last Monday night but don’t expect to be the Eagles to be in a giving
mood this afternoon in Philly. Not with Denver and Dallas on deck and
the NFC East title on the line. The Eagles’ 1-6 ATS mark as favorites of
more than seven points off back-to-back SU wins is a cause for concern,
but we can counter that with Frisco’s brutal 0-7 ATS record with nondivision
conference revenge. The hosts have also been giants after their
annual trip to the Meadowlands, posting a perfect 7-0 ATS log. With the
49ers just 3-7 ATS as dogs off a double-digit SU win and west coast teams
typically struggling on the east coast in 1:00 PM kickoffs, we’ll lean slightly
to the “Bah Humbug” hosts as they play Scrooge and knock the visitors
out of playoff contention.

NY JETS over Atlanta over by 8
With road wins at Buffalo and Tampa Bay, the 7-6 Jets are back in the
AFC playoff hunt. However, they have the toughest remaining schedule
(Indy and Cincy close out the season) of the hopefuls so they have very
little margin for error. While we don’t expect them to veer off course this
afternoon against the banged-up Falcons, we don’t know if we can trust
them laying this kind of wood with their QB status up in the air. Backup
Kellen Clemens was held to 111 passing yards last week in Tampa, so
expect the Jets to rely on their top-ranked rushing offense. The Flyboys
enter with the league’s best stop unit, as well, but they also carry some
heavy ATS baggage into this fray. For starters, they have been grounded in
their last seven December home games, posting a pathetic 1-6 ATS mark.
They’re also just 2-7 ATS at home off a double-digit SU win and 2-6 ATS at
home after allowing seven or less points. However, before soaring with the
Falcons, take note of their dismal 3-10 ATS log in their last 13 December
road games. Our database also reminds us that road dogs of three or more
points off three straight home games are 2-20 SU and 5-16-1 ATS when
taking on an opponent off back-to-back wins. We’ll chart this one later in
the week when the sky is a little less cloudy.

BALTIMORE over Chicago by 10
Joe Flacco dissed talk of ‘sophomore blues’ with a rousing 48-3 win over
the listless Lions here last week. That win moved the Ravens’ mark to an
eye-popping 17-1 ATS at home after a non-conference skirmish. That’s
bad news for the Bears as they fi ll the same slot this week. And if you
are Chicago head coach Lovie Smith, chances are you’re not sleeping too
well these days. After opening the campaign on a promising 3-1 SU and
ATS start behind newly acquired QB Jay Cutler, the Bears have gone into
early hibernation, going 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS the last six games. To make
matters worse, Cutler is 14-35-1 ATS as a starter in his NFL career, including
2-9 ATS as a road dog of more than three points. Together it looks like a
tap-out play is in order but – and there’s always a but – Baltimore, like
Tennessee, is at home off a 40-point home win and that’s not a good
thing. Not when favorites of six or more points in this role are just a 33%
pointspread proposition since 1980. Bummer.

Houston over ST. LOUIS by 6
The Texans began their ascent to .500 with a 27-point romp over Seattle
last week. At the same time, the Rams were crushed in a 40-point loss
at Tennessee. That makes this game a classic ‘DBO” (Double Blow Out)
and with it comes value-a-plenty. That’s confi rmed by the fact that NFL
road favorites off a spread win of 20 or more points are just 6-11 ATS
when facing a foe off a spread loss of 20 or more points. And in order for
Houston to continue its climb, it will need to accomplish something it’s
never done in its franchise history. That is to win a game as a road favorite
against an opponent off a loss (0-3 SU and ATS). With St. Louis wearing
its ‘Ugly Pig’ uniforms, we’ll slop around with the Rams in their playpen
here today.

SAN DIEGO over Cincinnati by 6
A matchup of AFC division leaders, each holding two game leads, sets the
table for a possible post-season preview. We are well aware of the success
dogs have had in Bengals games this season (12-1 ATS). Ironically, the
striped cats are just 1-7 SU and ATS when taking points in this series. They
are also 2-10 ATS on the road in December when taking on an opponent
off back-to-back wins. On the other side of the playoff coin, the Bolts are
riding a 16-game win skein in December and head coach Norv Turner is
a spotless 9-0 SU and ATS in his career as a home favorite off a pair of
wins when taking on an opponent off a loss. Whew! Kind of hard fading
numbers stacked in the Bolts’ favor, wouldn’t you agree? Especially when
San Diego QB Philip Rivers is the main attraction in this week’s INCREDIBLE
STAT on page 2. While it’s in our blood to run with winning dogs, this is
one we’ll order to sit for now. Who knows, come Sunday if the number
w a rrants, we may have to let the dog out. Stay tuned.

DENVER over Oakland by 8
Just when it appeared the Broncos were about to win last week’s rodeo
against the Colts, they collapsed in the late stages of the contest as the
best horse won. Today they dress up as double-digit chalk for the fi rst time
since 2006 when they laid 10 points to the 49ers in their season fi nale, a
game they eventually lost 26-23. Even in their better days, Denver was
tenuous at best when favored by more than six points, going 1-9 ATS the
last 10 games. Included in that dossier is a 31-10 loss as 9-point home chalk
against the same Raiders last season. Noting Oakland’s impressive 8-0 ATS
mark off a double-digit spread loss in games against opponents off backto-
back travelers – and recalling SU wins over the likes of Philadelphia,
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh this season – the points become the play here
today.

SEATTLE over Tampa Bay by 4
When two teams going nowhere fast lock horns at this stage of the season,
our fi rst glance is always to the dog. Unlike the favorite who must win the
game by a touchdown in order to prove its worth, the Bucs – who were
11.5-point favorites in this game last year – just need to stay competitive.
Knowing the Seahawks are 2-12-1 ATS as single digit favorites off a doubledigit
spread loss, and Jim Mora Jr.’s 0-8 ATS career mark off non-division
games against an opponent off a loss, we’ll stick by our conviction in a
game that maybe even ‘The Red Zone’ will have no interest in.

Minnesota over CAROLINA by 6
The old Wrangler keeps defying age while his stop troops continue to
shine. It’s a recipe for success and one as good as any in the league, namely
a Top 10 defense to go with a Top 10 offense (hey, somebody better tell
the Giants and Steelers they belong to this club, too!). There are many
sharps in the business who feel the Vikings may be the best team in the
league these days. We’re not one of them but we will give then their
due. We know they have feasted against losing teams under No. 4’s
tutelage, going 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS this season. Surprisingly, though,
the Panthers have been on the prowl this year in games against winning
opposition, where they are 4-1 ATS. Carolina is also 6-0 ATS in its last six
games as a host in December and 12-2 ATS during Santa’s month as a dog
off a loss. Until something in the form of a solid edge turns up, we’ll likely
retire to the recliner and enjoy this one.

Monday, December 21

WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 1
The Skins return from the left coast to host the Giants in a division game
that fi nds two teams going in opposite directions at the moment. When
the G-Men beat the Hogs, 23-17, in the season opener back in September
it marked the start of a good beginning for the Big Apples. They went
on to win four more in a row before hitting the skids. Today, they take
a 2-6 record in their last eight games into this bloodbath. Meanwhile,
Washington has rebounded nicely after its 2-6 start, going 2-3 since with
spread wins in each of the last fi ve games. With Big Blue a not so standup
5-13 SU and ATS in its last 18 Monday Night affairs, look for this game to
go right down to the wire with the Giants taking it on the chin. Again.

2-MINUTE HANDICAP

College Bowl Games

NEW MEXICO BOWL
Wyoming Dog in MWC / WAC bowl games is 5-1 ATS
Fresno St Fav is 0-9 ATS L9 Bulldogs’ bowl games (L8 SU losses)

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Central Florida 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS vs Big East opp
Rutgers Schiano: 13-2 ATS with winning record vs non-conf opp

Sunday, December 20

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Mid Tenn St 3-0 ATS vs C-USA… Stockstill: 16-4 ATS off SU and ATS win
Southern Miss Bowlers off loss in same bowl they won LY are 3-12 ATS

NFL Games

Thursday, December 17

Indianapolis DEC: 1-7 favs off DD SU win vs .500 > opp
JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 3-1 L4… DEL RIO: 17-3 .500 > w/ rev vs .500 > opp

Saturday, December 19

Dallas 13-5 .500 > off SUATS loss and allowed 20 div opp

Arizona SERIES: 7-3 L10 / 0-3 L3 A… 7-1 O/U L8 vs Lions
DETROIT 5-0 dogs < 11 pts off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU fav loss

San Francisco 0-7 w/ non div conf rev… 3-7 dogs off DD SU win
PHILADELPHIA 11-2 after Giants (7-0 after RG)… 5-0 O/U L5 vs 49ers

Atlanta DEC: 7-0 dogs off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win
NY JETS 1-4 off BB SU wins (last by DD) vs opp off SU loss

Chicago 7-0 < .500 off SU loss vs opp off SUATS win
BALTIMORE SERIES: 5-2 L7 / 4-0 L4 H… HARBAUGH: 12-4 fav

Cleveland 0-6 dogs < 5 pts 1st BB non div… DEC: 1-8-3 L12 RG’s
KANSAS CITY 10-2 home w/ rev after AFC East… 3-0 O/U L3 vs Browns

Houston 1-6 vs non conf opp off DD SU loss… 2-6 1st of BB RG’s
ST. LOUIS 3-0 L3 before Arizona… 14-2 vs < .500 AFC opp

Cincinnati 6-2 in 2nd of BB RG’s… 2-6 vs opp off SU dog win
SAN DIEGO SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 4-1 L5 H… 5-0-1 O/U L6 vs Bengals

Oakland SERIES: 3-0 L3 A… 8-0 off DD ATS loss vs opp off BB RG’s
DENVER 10-22 H vs opp off SU loss… 6-2 O/U L8 HG’s vs Raiders

Tampa Bay 3-0 Game Fourteen… DEC: 8-2 vs non div opp off DD SU L
SEATTLE 2-12-1 favs < 10 pts off DD ATS loss… 0-6 O/U L6 vs Bucs

Minnesota DEC: 2-12 RF’s vs < .500 opp… 2-6 O/U L8 vs Panthers
CAROLINA DEC: 6-0 L6 HG’s… DEC: 12-2 dogs off SU loss

Monday, December 21

NY Giants 1-6 RF’s vs < .500 opp off SU A win…0-3 Game Fourteen
WASHINGTON 4-1 Game Fourteen… 6-2 home off BB SU losses

SPORTS MEMO

TIM TRUSHEL

Best Bet: Over 40
Chicago Baltimore -10
Baltimore 6 at Chicago (-2) 10 - 2005 O/U 40

While weather is somewhat of a concern in projecting a total in this venue, the
advanced forecast calls for mild conditions. The field turf in Baltimore drains
well and plays fast so some of those concerns with precipitation are assuaged.
With the playoffs at stake we saw a sense of urgency last week against the Lions.
Ray Rice torched Detroit’s struggling defense and there is little reason to
expect anything different against the struggling Bears. While the Ravens did
manage to hold the Lions to just three points, the Baltimore defense remains
overrated. Injuries to playmakers Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have even further
diminished this unit. The Bears should be able to connect on some big
plays and move the football. Even if they do struggle, they have abandoned
any real semblance of balance and will sling the ball all over the field. Turnovers
and plenty of clock stoppage time will help our cause. This line is reasonable
as the Ravens are averaging 33 points per game at home. We project
plenty of offensive success this weekend and will play over the total.

BRENT CROW

Best Bet: Green Bay +1
Green Bay +1 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (-3) 20 at Green Bay 10 - 2005 O/U 39.5

I see no reason to believe that Pittsburgh’s slide is over and have to go against
them again this week. They have dropped five straight games, three of those to
woeful Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, and two of the losses have been at
home. Sure this is a must win game, but so was last week at Cleveland, and the
week before that at home against Oakland. The fact is that this team is not very
good right now, with the offensive line struggling and the defense missing Troy
Polamalu. The offense depends so much on the ability of Ben Roethlisberger
to make plays after scrambling around, and if that doesn’t work, there is nothing
else to fall back on. Lately, Big Ben hasn’t even had time to scramble, as the
Steelers allowed eight sacks last week to a Cleveland defense missing five starters.
Green Bay is in excellent shape after beating Chicago last week to move to
9-4. They have won five straight games and have solved their offensive line problems
from earlier in the year. Aaron Rodgers and company are the best offense
Pittsburgh has seen of late and I look for their defensive troubles to intensify.

TEDDY COVERS

Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44

San Diego rolls into this game as the toast of the West Coast, winners of eight straight
games following their upset win in Dallas on Sunday. That being said, this is still a
fundamentally flawed team. For the season, the Chargers have been outrushed
by 1.1 yards per attempt. Their 3.3 ypc ranks dead last in the NFL, while their 4.4
ypc allowed makes them no better than mediocre. This is a one dimensional football
team – if they can’t throw down field, they can’t win. Even in their win over the
Cowboys, the Chargers rushed for only 2.4 ypc while allowing four yards per rushing
attempt. The injury bug has hit the Chargers hard. They still don’t have starting
center Nick Hardwick, left tackle Marcus McNeil has a bad ankle, safety Eric Weddle
and defensive tackle Alfonso Boone both sat out last Sunday; the Boone injury a
real problem with Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Ogemdi Nwagbuo already on
injured reserve. Both Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo are banged up as well.
When a 3-4 defense has cluster injuries on the defensive line and at linebacker, it’s
never a recipe for success as a favorite against a hungry, talented foe like the Bengals.

ERIN RYNNING

Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44

The Bengals are back on the highway with a long trek to San Diego to battle the
Chargers. The Chargers can do absolutely no wrong right now winning eight
straight games. However, we are all well aware of the natural ebb and flow of
this league and I’m looking for a sub-par performance this weekend. And while
credit is indeed due, it’s not like San Diego is simply just blowing their opponents
out or dominating every game. In fact, the Chargers are a team that’s right
in the middle of the pack in terms of yards gained and allowed -- much worse
from a rushing yardage standpoint. Meanwhile, the Bengals are no slouch themselves,
trailing the Chargers by only one game in the win-loss column. They
however have been in a mini-slump, splitting their last four games, while failing
to record a spread cover. But this week, I’ll call for Bengals to own the line
of scrimmage and be in this game from start to finish. The Bengals rank sixth
in the NFL rushing the football, but maybe more importantly, rank third at stopping
the run. The Bengals stay close in San Diego and could even pull the upset.

ROB VENO

Best Bet: Baltimore -10
Chicago Baltimore -10
Baltimore 6 at Chicago (-2) 10 - 2005 O/U 40

It’s wise to be taking every opportunity available to fade this Chicago team which
was officially eliminated from the postseason last Sunday. The Bears put forth another
brutal offensive performance, running four plays or less on seven of their 11
full possessions. Those seven drives netted a total of 18 yards. Jay Cutler tossed
another pair of interceptions and he was sacked three times as the offensive line
continues to play miserably in all facets. Expect the Ravens to bring immense defensive
pressure from the outset, creating havoc and turnovers the way Minnesota
did three weeks ago. The Bears’ last four road games have seen them fail to
eclipse 14 points and they’ve gone 0-4 both straight up and against the spread.
Here they’ll face what figures to be a confident Baltimore team that broke out of an
offensive slump and racked up 548 yards last week. Motivationally, Baltimore has
plenty to play for as they are in great position to garner the AFC’s sixth and final
playoff position. Expect the Ravens defense to be dominant and their offense to
wear down the Chicago defense which is likely to be on the field for far too long.

FAIRWAY JAY

Best Bet: Under 43
Minnesota -7 Carolina
Carolina 10 at Minnesota (-3.5) 20 - 2008 O/U 43

The Vikings continue to roll and can close in on the NFC’s No. 2 seed and
first round playoff bye with a win at Carolina. Minnesota should rely heavily
on their ground game this week with Adrian Peterson as Carolina has
struggled to slow the run in recent weeks. The Panthers have allowed 185,
154, 139, 154 and 176 yards rushing their past five contests. On offense, the
Panthers have turned one-dimensional which should make for a big day
from the Vikings’ defense. The amount of pressure unproven quarterback
Matt Moore likely receives expects to be very similar to what he saw a few
weeks backs against the Jets. In that game, Carolina manage only six points
and under 200 yards offense. I don’t expect Minnesota’s offense to be as dynamic
or determined this week while playing outdoors for the first time since
November 1st. Minnesota has played five straight games under the total
while Carolina has now played four straight. The combination of the Vikings’
strong defense and the Panthers’ poor offense should keep the streak alive.

MARTY OTTO

Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44

The Chargers have won eight in a row from a straight up perspective while covering
six of those eight contests. But a look at the schedule suggests this streak is less than
impressive as only a home win over the Eagles really stands out as an impressive win.
The Chargers stink at running the football ranking 31st in yardage, 32nd in ypc and will
only find success in games where they can chuck it down field against weak secondary
units. That isn’t the case this weekend. Cincinnati’s defense is top five unit with a solid
back four. They have more INTs than TD passes allowed and opponents are completing
just 56% of their passes which ranks fifth best in the league. Pressure can be generated
as well as the Bengals rank in the top 10 in sacks. On the other side of the ball Cincinnati
should fare much better offensively than they did in a losing effort against Minnesota.
The Bengals’ ground attack is the real driving force for their offense and while the Vikings
stymied them, the Chargers don’t have that type of ability. San Diego’s banged
up defense allowed nearly 5.0 ypc over the last month and if you can’t stop Cincinnati’s
rushing attack, you can’t separate from them on the scoreboard. Take the underdog.

HELMUT SPORTS

Best Bet: Under 44.5
UCF Rutgers -2.5
@ St. Petersburg, Fla. O/U 44.5

UCF’s defense led C-USA in points allowed at 20.7 ppg which is pretty impressive given
the offensive nature of most of the conference. They also had non-conference tilts
against Texas and Miami. The rush defense was really strong finishing fifth in the nation
and if there is one area of concern it is in the pass defense, which at times was a little
suspect. With the graduation of Mike Teel the Scarlet Knights used freshman quarterback
Tom Savage and the production in the passing game fell off the grid. The offense
particularly struggled against teams that defend the run as they failed to surpass 21
points in games against Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. On the surface it appears
UCF’s offense was not that bad, but keep in mind that they had five games against
teams ranking 100th or worse in total defense and one FCS opponent. In the other six
games the offense averaged only 14.5 ppg and really struggled when playing teams
with strong defenses. Against Texas and Miami, the offense could not generate more
than seven total points and was held to less than 200 ypg. Expect the offense to once
again have problems going against an above average Rutgers’ stop unit. Take the under.

ANDREW LANGE

Best Bet: Over 39
Tampa Bay Seattle -7
Seattle (+10.5) 10 at Tampa Bay 20 - 2008 O/U 39

If you watched Tampa Bay of late, you’d probably refer to them as the worst team in football.
For every good play rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has made, two bad ones have
followed. The offense can’t score against a decent defense and even when facing a below
average stop unit like Carolina, they failed to cash in on multiple attempts inside the
red zone. So why in the world would we be looking to play this type of team over the total?
For starters, last week’s loss at Houston officially ended Seattle’s season. Back-to-back
wins heading in gave them a glimmer of hope but at 5-8, they are playing for exercise.
We’ve seen sound defensive efforts and low scoring affairs when the Seahawks match up
against division foes, but every non-NFC West contest has gone over the total of 39. With
the exception of the recent win over San Francisco, Seattle has rarely been able to put
forth a complete effort on both sides of the ball. Since shutting out Jacksonville in week
five -- when the season had meaning -- Seattle has allowed 17 or more points in eight
straight games with two of those involving the Lions and Rams. Let’s also not forget Tampa
Bay’s defense is going to be involved here as well. We’ll call for this one to go over the total.

Logical Approach

Fresno is Bowling for a third straight season and for the ninth time in 10 seasons. They played in this same Bowl last season, losing 40-35 to Colorado State. Wyoming is playing in only their second Bowl in a decade and their first since 2004 when they upset UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl, ironically also as a 12 point underdog. These teams are polar opposites with Fresno winning with offense while Wyoming relies on its defense for its success. Each team played high quality foes this season with Wyoming losing to a pair of unbeatens, TCU and Texas while Fresno lost to both Cincinnati and Boise State. Of those three contests Fresno had the best effort in their 51-34 home loss to Boise, outgaining the Broncos 507-480, including 320 rushing yards in an attack featuring top RB Matthews. Fresno was also competitive in their road loss at Cincy as well as in a road loss at Wisconsin, outgaining both foes. They ended their season with a wild win at Illinois. Fresno clearly deserves to be solid favorites in this game. Wyoming should have the greater enthusiasm as Bowling is a rather infrequent experience for the Cowboy program. Fresno's better balance makes them dangerous as they both run and pass for over 200 yards. Wyoming's defensive edge statistically is not as great as might be imagined and was accomplished against weaker foes. This game handicaps as having a solid correlation between side and total with Wyoming likely covering in a low scoring contest whereas a Fresno cover more likely suggests a high scoring contest. In analyzing Bowl matchups it's common to start by making a case for the underdog. Wyoming's edges in this game may be found more in the intangibles than in the fundamentals and for that reason the preference is to back the favorite. The level of enthusiasm is slight as weather and altitude would tend to favor Wyoming. The forecast calls for Fresno State to win 38-23, making FRESNO STATE a 2 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection

Rutgers in a Bowl for a fifth straight season and they've won the last three. Central Florida is in their third Bowl in five seasons and still looking for their first ever Bowl win, losing in their last Bowl appearance two seasons ago. Both teams had successful 8-4 seasons although as the ATS records show Central Florida was far better at exceeding expectations than was Rutgers. One of UCF's win came against a FCS school (Samford) while Rutgers won 2 such games (Howard and Texas Southern). Both teams lost to unbeaten foes as Rutgers was crushed by Cincinnati in their opener 47-15 at home while UCF lost in mid season at Texas 35-3. Rutgers has the stronger conference affiliation although the overall quality of the Big East has been declining in recent seasons. Rutgers' best win was arguably at UConn although they were competitive in losses to both Pitt and West Virginia. UCF's best win was over Houston and they did close the season with 4 straight covers. UCF may have the intangibles edge playing so close to home and being the underdog. Rutgers was 3-3 ATS as a Favorite this season with two outright losses. UCF was 4-1 ATS as underdogs but their only outright win was the win at home over Houston. Neither team has significant statistical edges although UCF was # 4 nationally vs the run (82 ypg). Rutgers was #95 in passing the football which means they might not be all that great in attacking UCF's #112 pass defense (much of which was 'earned' in games against the potent pass attacks of Houston and Texas). Minor bowls usually involve teams with multiple flaws and vulnerabilities and that is certainly the case here. As such underdogs often present good value when the talent is fairly even and UCF does get to recruit in their home state, attracting leftovers from Florida, Florida State and Miami. The site also works in their favor and an outright upset would not surprise. The forecast is for UCF to pull that upset, winning 24-23 and making CENTRAL FLORIDA a 3 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection .

Nelly's Greensheet
NFL KEY SELECTIONS Copy and pasted from another website

RATING 5 CINCINNATI (+7) over San Diego
RATING 4 NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Dallas
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+7) over New England
RATING 2 MINNESOTA (-7) over Carolina
RATING 1 WASHINGTON (+3) over NY Giants

NEW ORLEANS (-7) Dallas (52½) 7:20 PM
Saturday night NFL is back with a great opening match-up between the undefeated Saints
and the fading Cowboys. New Orleans has vowed to play all season and home field
advantage is not locked up just yet with Minnesota at 11-2. Dallas has lost back-to-back
games, blowing a great opportunity last week as three early scoring chances resulted in just
three points and allowed San Diego to get some momentum. Dallas closes with division
games the final two weeks and although this team is heading in the wrong direction, a loss
here would not eliminate playoff hopes. The Saints have failed to cover in five of the last
seven games but this line could be kept in check. The Saints have been dominant at home
this year and facing a team like the Cowboys will get the team’s attention. SAINTS BY 13

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2009

PITTSBURGH (-1) Green Bay (39½) 3:15 PM
The Packers have won five in a row to solidify a playoff spot but the remaining schedule will
not be easy. Doomsday scenarios have played out for the Steelers but if this team wins out
the playoffs are still a possibility. Getting the team to believe in that hope after five straight
losses may be a difficult challenge however. Green Bay’s running game carried the team to a
narrow win last week and the Packers defense has stepped up, allowing just 14 or fewer
points in four of the last five games. Green Bay will not be intimidated by the winter elements
in Pittsburgh and despite facing a third consecutive huge game including a second in a row on
the road the Packers have a lot going their way right now. PACKERS BY 4

TENNESSEE (NL) Miami 12:00 PM
QB Vince Young left last week’s game for the Titans though it did not matter much in a
blowout win. Tennessee’s playoff chances are slim but a lot can happen in three weeks as
seven teams are essentially fighting for the final spot. Miami is one of those teams after
coming up with a huge win last week. Miami’s offense may have a hard time keeping pace
with the incredible Tennessee rushing attack as the Dolphins did not have an impressive
game on offense last week even against a marginal defense. Tennessee’s lone loss in the
past seven games came in a competitive effort against the Colts and the Titans have scored
30 or more in four of those games. Each of the last six wins for Miami have come by seven
points or less as the Dolphins have slipped by fortunately in several games. TITANS BY 7

New England (-7) BUFFALO (40½) 12:00 PM
Buffalo has five wins on the season but they generally have come as a result of turnovers as
was the case against last week. The Bills offense is posting pathetic numbers as they were
badly out-gained again last week but Buffalo should be motivated for this game especially
considering how things played out in the first meeting. New England was able to win last week
and keep the lead in the division but the Patriots are no lock for the playoffs at this point. This
looks like a winnable game on paper but the Patriots have failed to cover three straight weeks
and have zero S/U road wins this season. PATRIOTS BY 3

Arizona (NL) DETROIT 12:00 PM
Not knowing Monday’s result makes this a very difficult game to predict as the Cardinals can
clinch the NFC West. Arizona is not in a position to improve its stock to a protected bye week
seed and might actually prefer to be the #4 seed, as they were last year in the Super Bowl
run. Detroit was historically bad at 0-16 last season but the Lions were 7-9 ATS last year and
were competitive in at least half their games. This season Detroit has two S/U wins and just
three ATS wins. Two of those covers came as backdoor covers in games that they never had
a legitimate chance to win making this team on an equally bad level. Injuries have certainly
taken a toll but the Lions have been out-scored by 197 points this season, allowing by far the
most points in the NFL. Even if the Cardinals decide to rest key players this is a game they
can still win comfortably. CARDINALS BY 14

PHILADELPHIA (NL) San Francisco 12:00 PM
If the 49ers win Monday, they would still be alive in the playoff chase with this game being the
significant hurdle as they will be heavy favorites in the final two games. Philadelphia is in
control of the NFC East for the moment but the Eagles also face an incredibly difficult closing
schedule. The Giants posted 38 points on the Eagles defense last week and the Eagles have
allowed 20 or more points in five of the last six weeks. Philadelphia’s only wins against a
winning team all season both came against the Giants so this is not the playoff lock and
contender that many seem to believe in. Even if the 49ers are knocked out on Monday this is
a team that played great late season ball while out of the picture last year. EAGLES BY 2

NY JETS (NL) Atlanta 12:00 PM
A banged up Falcons squad had a great opportunity to knock off the undefeated Saints last
week and this is a team with a favorable closing schedule. 9-7 may not cut it in the NFC but
Dallas and New York have not exactly inspired confidence of late so anything can happen.
The Falcons are 2-6 in the last eight games and only have won once on the road all season
however. The Jets took care of business last week and this is a game they need to have with
two difficult final games looming. Kellen Clemens was able to win last week and the Jets have
allowed only 22 points in the past three games. JETS BY 9

BALTIMORE (-10) Chicago (40½) 12:00 PM
The Ravens have alternated wins and losses the past eight weeks and this could be a difficult
spot after a convincing win over Detroit. The Bears continue to find ways to lose and Chicago
has covered just once in the past nine games despite nearly upsetting Green Bay last week. It
has received plenty of attention but the interceptions have cost Chicago several games this
season. Baltimore’s offense had failed to top 20 points in five straight games before last
week’s explosion so laying double-digits has a lot of risk. RAVENS BY 7

KANSAS CITY (-2½) Cleveland (36½) 12:00 PM
The Chiefs have lost three games in a row although they had every opportunity to win,
including a dropped pass inside the five that would likely led to the game winning touchdown.
Interceptions continue to pile up for Matt Cassel and the Chiefs will play their final home game
this week. Cleveland pulled off a stunner last week to give some redemption to a miserable
season and the Browns are riding a four-game ATS win streak. Cleveland has struggled but
this team has much more positive energy right now. BROWNS BY 4

Houston (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
3rd string QB Keith Null started for the Rams last week and a five interception performance
was the result as Kyle Boller was a late scratch. The Rams are 4-2 ATS in the last six games
but this is a team that has scored more than 20 points just once all season. Houston got off to
a fast start last week for a convincing win although the defense did not play as well as the final
score might indicate. The Texans will face an uphill battle but are not yet completely
eliminated from playoff contention and after finally snapping a four-game losing streak this
could be a team that finishes strong. Houston has three S/U wins away from home and the
indoor field may actually play to Houston’s advantage. TEXANS BY 17

SAN DIEGO (-7) Cincinnati (44) 3:05 PM
The Chargers appear to be in great shape in the AFC but the remaining schedule is extremely
difficult. Although San Diego has won eight in a row they have not yet wrapped up the division
title and Cincinnati can take the #2 spot back with a win this week. The Chargers have lost
twice at home this season and have six wins by eight points or less while also facing a very
weak schedule so there may be some flaws with this squad. The biggest advantage the
Chargers have is the big physical receivers as San Diego has a horrible running game and a
poor run defense. Cincinnati’s secondary has been incredibly impressive and this should be a
very favorable match-up for an upset. BENGALS BY 4

DENVER (-12) Oakland (37½) 3:05 PM
Bruce Gradkowski has provided a spark for the Raiders in recent wins and looked capable of
doing it again last week before leaving with injury. Oakland’s offense did nothing with
JaMarcus Russell back at QB and Oakland likely has little chance moving forward if
Gradkowski can not return. Denver still holds a one-game lead in the wild card and should not
be counted out of the AFC West just yet. Denver had plenty of chances against the Colts last
week and even in a loss, looked like a team that belongs. Denver dominated Oakland 23-3 in
the first meeting and the Broncos have fared well as favorites. BRONCOS BY 17

SEATTLE (-7) Tampa Bay (39½) 3:15 PM
The Seahawks moved the ball well last week but fell behind early and only found the end zone
once. Tampa Bay has really struggled to score in recent weeks although the defense has
been respectable. Seattle has still performed reasonably well at home this year in a lost
season and cross country travel could take a toll on the young Bucs. SEAHAWKS BY 10

Minnesota (-7) CAROLINA (42½) 7:20 PM
Many were quick to write off the Vikings after one bad loss but Minnesota bounced back with
an impressive win over Cincinnati last week. Carolina has covered in four of the last six
games but the Panthers might be in for a tough match-up, as the offense has struggled to
score in recent weeks. Carolina has not topped 17 points in the last four games while
Minnesota remains one of the top scoring teams in the league. Sunday night was not kind to
the Vikings the last time around but Carolina continues to disappoint. VIKINGS BY 14

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2009

NY Giants (-3) WASHINGTON (42) 7:35 PM
The Redskins have been playing well of late and did not feel the letdown last week in what
could have been a tough spot. Washington has covered in five straight games despite only
four wins on the year and the Giants lost in a critical game last week. The Giants have
covered once in the last eight games and the defense has been horrendous in recent weeks.
Look for the Redskins to be in position to win this game as New York can not get stops and
continues to turn the ball over. It is hard to believe the Giants were once 5-0 but this team
should continue to fade. REDSKINS BY 4

BOWL SELECTIONS

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2009

NEW MEXICO BOWL @Albuquerque, NM 3:30 PM

Fresno State (-10½) Wyoming (55)
While Fresno State remains one of the upper echelon teams in the WAC this is a team that
continually fails to take the next step. In the last eight years Fresno State has had seven
winning seasons but the Bulldogs have not topped nine wins since ’01, and nine is the best
they can do this season. Fresno State Coach Pat Hill has a 4-5 record in bowl games but like
the Bulldogs seem to do in the regular season, the results have been better playing as
underdogs against major conference foes rather than as favorites. Fresno State has actually
lost outright in the previous two bowl games as favorites including last year’s New Mexico
Bowl, losing 40-35 to Colorado State. Wyoming finished just 6-6 but after a rough three game
losing streak where the Cowboys scored ten points, this team rallied to win two of its final
three games, with both wins coming on the road as underdogs. Wyoming won just five games
against FBS competition and all of those teams finished with losing records but the Fresno
State schedule rates even weaker for the season and the lone win against a winning team for
the Bulldogs came against 7-5 Idaho. Wyoming was actually an 8-3 ATS team on the season
while Fresno State has covered just seven times in the last 30 games as favorites. Statistically
Fresno State is the far better team on offense producing 34 points per game and 435 yards
per game but the defense has had issues. Despite winning four of the final five games of the
season, Fresno State was out-gained and out-rushed in all five of those games. Wyoming was
out-gained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season but blowout losses to BYU and TCU
factored considerably into those numbers with over 300 yard differentials. Wyoming played
fairly evenly with the rest of the schedule as the defense is much better than the overall
numbers indicate. Look for this to be a bigger game for a Wyoming team that is excited to be
in the postseason while Fresno State might have trouble rising to the occasion to finish the
season strong. FRESNO STATE BY 4

RATING 2: Wyoming (+10½) over Fresno State
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL @St. Petersburg, FL 7:00 PM

Rutgers (-2½) Central Florida (44½)
Greg Schiano has a 3-1 record in bowl games with his lone loss coming in a close game as a
big underdog. Rutgers has won its bowl game each of the last three years and the offense
usually comes in firing, having scored nearly 40 points per game in the four postseason
games. Rutgers has been a program happy to be in the postseason after a nearly 30-year
bowl drought but this season the expectations were higher and many projected the Scarlet
Knights to win the Big East. At 8-4 Rutgers never came close to those expectations and
despite a strong year for the Big East overall, Central Florida enters this game having played
the much tougher overall schedule. The Golden Knights enter this game having won five of
the final six games with the lone loss coming at Texas. This location will clearly favor Central
Florida making the trip across the state from Orlando and UCF was 9-2 ATS on the season as
one of the most profitable teams in the nation. QB play has been a problem for Rutgers all
season as freshman Tom Savage completed just 52 percent of his passes on the season.
Savage will need to make plays in this game as UCF owns a stingy run defense, allowing only
84 yards per game on the ground. Central Florida has been the more productive offensive
team and the strong defensive numbers for Rutgers were built on an incredibly weak
nonconferenceslate that featured two FCS foes. Central Florida lost two close conference games
early in the season but this team played extremely well down the stretch. Rutgers has been a
strong bowl performer but this looks like a situation where UCF will be the more motivated
Knights squad and can pull the upset. CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 6
RATING 3: Central Florida (+2½) over Rutgers

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2009

NEW ORLEANS BOWL @New Orleans, LA 7:30 PM
Southern Miss (-3½) Middle Tennessee State (58)
Troy has been the clear top team in the Sun Belt this season and last including beating Middle
Tennessee State 31-7 in the regular season. Last year in the New Orleans Bowl Southern
Miss beat Troy 30-27 in overtime as the Golden Eagles were rush-doubling underdogs.
Southern Miss finished the year 7-5 but actually was out-gained in eight of the final ten games
of the season. Southern Miss rarely had much of a rushing deficit averaging188 yards per
game on the ground. Middle Tennessee is also a strong rushing team but the schedule has
been much weaker playing in the Sun Belt. MTSU did defeat Memphis from C-USA earlier this
season but the Golden Eagles beat that same Tigers team in much more convincing fashion.
Since taking over at QB Martevious Young has been incredibly efficient with only one
interception thrown against 13 touchdowns. QB Dwight Dasher for the Blue Raiders has
thrown 21 touchdowns but 14 interceptions has been his downfall. Statistically overall these
teams look quite even but MTSU did not hold up well in its last bowl performance and did not
beat a winning team all season. Early season wins over Maryland and Memphis do not hold
up at this point in the year while four Southern Miss losses of seven points or less robbed the
Golden Eagles of an even stronger season. Coach Fedora had his team ready to play last
season in the bowl game when a suspect defense played extremely well, particularly against
the run and going back to the same setting should encourage another strong effort. Middle
Tennessee State may be happy to be here, making its first bowl appearance since ’06. Both
defenses will likely play better than the numbers support. SOUTHERN MISS BY 14
RATING 4: Southern Miss (-3½) over Middle Tennessee
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (58) Southern Miss/MTSU

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2009

MAACO LAS VEGAS BOWL @Las Vegas, NV 7:00 PM
Oregon State (-2½) Byu (60½)
The Beavers were in a similar position last year after losing its final game against Oregon,
missing out on the Rose Bowl and forced to settle for a lesser event. Oregon State won its
bowl game last season but it was hardly an inspired performance, scoring just three points in
tough conditions. This may be an even tougher game to get up for facing BYU from the
Mountain West but Coach Mike Riley is 5-0 S/U in bowl games. BYU had very high
expectations this season that went unfulfilled as conference foe TCU did what the Cougars
hoped to accomplish. The early season signature win over Oklahoma looks much less
impressive at this point in the year and despite the 10-2 record, there are few quality wins on
the resume. BYU did go 6-0 away from home this season with impressive numbers but only
one win came against a winning team. The Cougars also may have a slight location edge as
they already played at Sam Boyd Stadium this season. BYU has played the Pac-10 in each of
the last four years in this bowl game going 2-2 both S/U and ATS. The Cougars have posted
slightly superior numbers on both sides of the ball but with the great depth in the Pac-10 this
season Oregon State has been the more impressive team. Oregon State has also taken much
better care of the ball this season as BYU QB Max Hall has thrown 14 interceptions. The
motivation could come into question for both teams but the Beavers have been great bowl
performers in recent years and BYU presents a serious challenge so this is not a game that
OSU will take lightly. It will be the same old story for BYU back in Las Vegas and in a season
where the expectations were much higher this will be a tough match-up as Oregon State has
a dangerous offense and a defense that is better than the numbers indicate after having to
face some great offensive teams on the season. OREGON STATE BY 6
RATING 1: Oregon State (-2½) over Byu

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2009

POINSETTIA BOWL @San Diego, CA 7:00 PM
California (-3) Utah (53)
Kyle Whittingham is 4-0 in bowl games with just one ATS miss but after last year’s big win
over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl it might be tough to bring the same focus and energy to San
Diego and a lesser bowl game. It is also a disappointing end for California in a season that
started with great promise. Since losing badly in the Holiday Bowl in this same stadium in ’04,
California has gone 4-0 in bowl games as well, including wins over two Mountain West teams.
The regular season ended with great disappointment for both programs as Utah lost its main
rivalry game with BYU and California was blown out at Washington. The Washington loss
came on the heels of Cal’s rivalry win over Stanford as the Bears had played well late in the
season until that finale. The Bears played one of the tougher schedules in the nation in a very
good Pac-10, and the conference was extremely well represented in the bowls last season.
Utah’s offensive production dropped considerably since Jordan Wynn took over at QB and the
Utes have been a far less successful rushing team. The poor closing effort from the Cal
defense should leave a motivated squad entering the bowl game and the Bears won four road
games this season to put to rest a reputation as a team that only wins big games at home.
Utah’s record this season was built on success at home going 6-0 in Salt Lake City but
struggling away from home. The Utes own great historical numbers as underdogs but that
likely keeps this line in check against a hit-or-miss Cal team. Utah only beat one team with a
winning record and it took overtime to get it done so this is a suspect Utes squad that beat up
on a lot of marginal foes. The Mountain West had a great TCU team at the top of the
standings but the rest of the league was a disappointment this season and it will be tough for
Utah to make amends in this difficult bowl match-up. Cal certainly would have preferred a
bigger stage but facing a Utah team that has a national presence should help keep the Bears
motivated and ready to win. CALIFORNIA BY 7
RATING 2: California (-3) over Utah
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ (53) California/Utah

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2009

HAWAII BOWL @Honolulu, HI 7:00 PM
Nevada (-14½) Smu (73½)
Nevada brings huge statistics into this game but they have done so the past four years and
came up empty in each of the last three bowl games. The only bowl win for Nevada in this era
came in ’05 in Hawaii but it was one-point win in overtime in a game where the Wolfpack were
favored. Last season Nevada was a popular play-on team that disappointed and in ’07 the
Wolfpack laid a complete egg, getting shutout 23-0. This will be a much bigger game for SMU
as Coach Jones returns to Hawaii and the Mustangs will be well supported because of his
presence. SMU went 1-11 in ‘08 and is now in a bowl game and the schedule and a few
fortunate wins certainly played a role. For the year SMU was out-scored and out-gained and
six of seven wins came by eight points or less. Nevada rushes for an absurd 362 yards per
game and the Mustangs will have trouble with this match-up but much of that total came in a
few blowouts against awful WAC teams. Nevada went 1-3 in non-conference play and SMU
will have had plenty of time to prepare for the unique Wolfpack offense. Nevada’s defense
allows 284 yards per game passing so SMU should also find some scoring opportunities.
Since Coach Jones coached at Hawaii he is very familiar with Nevada and he had success in
this match-up. SMU battled injuries as various points this season and should be a more
complete team for this game and the strong trends for Nevada as favorites featured almost
exclusively home games. Going against Nevada has a lot of risk as the blowout loss is a
possibility as it is hard to sustain the pounding ground attack but SMU has an offense that
may be able to keep pace in these circumstances. Nevada has not performed well outside of
conference play and another disappointing bowl performance is a possibility. NEVADA BY 10
RATING 1: Smu (+14½) over Nevada

Logical Approach

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BALTIMORE - 10 over Chicago - The Bears will miss the
Playoffs and the future of their coaching staff is very much up in the air. Much of their woes can be
traced to the failure of the offense to develop a running game and of QB Cutler to deliver in key
situations. The Bears have the worst ground game in the league, averaging just 86 yards per
game. Baltimore remains in the Playoff hunt and has feasted on this level of competition. Against
teams currently 5-8 or worse the Ravens are 4-0 both straight up and ATS, winning by an average
score of 34-8 and outgaining those foes by an average of 450-191. It's when stepping up in class
that the Ravens have struggled. Baltimore has the clearly better stats with the #12 offense and # 9
defense. They also excel at avoiding turnovers It's hard to see Chicago sustaining much intensity
for more than the first few minutes of this contest while the Ravens will be aggressive and intense
throughout. Chicago's lost 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 as well as being on an 0-6 and 1-8 ATS run.
Baltimore's impressive results against this level of foe makes them a solid play. Baltimore wins
27-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

KANSAS CITY - 2 ½ over Cleveland - Congrats to the Browns for their win over arch rival
Pittsburgh last Thursday that all but knocked the Steelers out of the Playoffs. It was the high point
in a season of disappointment and turmoil for Cleveland and was accomplished despite 6 of 19
passing by QB Quinn. Kansas City ends their home season here and are seeking to avoid a
second straight season of 1-7 at home. QB Cassel has been disappointing and was picked off 5
times last week by Buffalo. But a running game has surfaced with Charles gaining 143 in last
week's loss. The Chiefs' weakness all season has been their defense but Cleveland's offense
does not possess the firepower to take advantage. Against teams with records of 6-7 or better the
Chiefs are allowing 33 points and 448 yards per game. In their 5 games against weaker teams
they are allowing just 11 points and 244 yards per game. The situation and the stats against this
level of competition greatly favor the hosts. Kansas City wins 23-10.

SEATTLE - 7 over Tampa Bay - It's been a long and disappointing season for both teams
and while Tampa was known to be in rebuilding mode there was some hope for Seattle to
return to prior form following an injury filled 2008. But that has not materialized as Seattle
has played poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 games. But the 'Hawks have performed well at
home where they are 4-2 with 3 of the wins by double digits. Tampa has lost all 7 road
games with 4 of the losses by double digits. This is a long road trip for the Buccs who have
little to play for other than the continued development of rookie QB Freeman who continues
to struggle after some early positive signs, tossing 3 interceptions in last week's loss to the
Jets. Both offenses have not run the ball well but Seattle has defended the run extremely
well while Tampa is allowing 161 rushing ypg (#31). Tampa has decent pass defense stats
but most offenses prefer the run to the pass. When healthy Seattle does have pretty good
offensive balance with QB Hasselbeck a savvy veteran. Seattle wins comfortably, 27-13.

WASHINGTON + 3 over N Y Giants (Monday) - The Giants' Playoff hopes were dealt a blow with
last week's loss to Philadelphia. Much of the Giants' woes this season have been on defense
where the coaching of former coordinator and current St Louis coach Spagnuolo is clearly missed.
Washington is playing better over the second half of the season as the offense has gotten hot.
After being held to 17 points or less in each of their first 8 games the Redskins have scored 24 or
more in 4 of their last 5. They nearly knocked of New Orleans two weeks ago and are off of a
satisfying win in Oakland. They now face their long time bitter rival that has to have their
confidence shaken. The national limelight provides an excellent spot for an upset much as it did
this past Monday for San Francisco against Arizona. The Giants feasted on weak competition
during their 5-0 start (including as 23-17 opening game win over Washington). The Giants are just
2-6 in their last 8 games and just 1-7 ATS. Meanwhile Washington has covered 5 straight with 2
outright wins and the 3 losses were by 1, 3 and 3 points. They'll continue their fine late season
play here. Washington wins 23-20.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)

NEW ORLEANS - 7 over Dallas (Saturday) Miami + 3 over TENNESSEE
BUFFALO + 7 over New England N Y JETS - 4 * over Atlanta
Cincinnati + 6 ½ over SAN DIEGO CAROLINA + 7 over Minnesota

The Rest (Leans)
Indianapolis - 3 * over JACKSONVILLE (Thurs) PITTSBURGH - 1 ½ over Green Bay
Arizona - 11 over DETROIT PHILADELPHIA - 8 ½ over San Francisco
Houston - 10 over ST LOUIS DENVER - 12 over Oakland
* Projected Line

Best of the NFL Totals
Dallas/New Orleans OVER 53 Green Bay/Pittsburgh UNDER 40
Miami/Tennessee UNDER 41 ½ Arizona/Detroit OVER 47
San Francisco/Philadelphia OVER 44 Cleveland/Kansas City UNDER 36 ½
Cincinnati/San Diego UNDER 43 ½ N Y Giants/Washington UNDER 42 ½

Money Line Recommendations
College: Central Florida Middle Tennessee BYU -----
Pro: Miami KANSAS CITY CAROLINA Washington

NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS

KEY SELECTIONS

4* SAN DIEGO over Cincinnati - The Chargers are known for peaking late in the year when it matters most & are 9-1 ATS in December. LW they traveled to face a talented but snakebitten DAL team & beat them 20-17 as a 3.5 pt AD. SD had a 20-10 lead but gave up a garbage TD who were trying to rally but SD was forcing them to burn the clock. While SD was outgained by 7 yds, 86 of the Cowboys yards came on the final drive. SD held the home team to 1 of 8 on 3rd Dns & made a brilliant goal line stand in the 2Q holding on 1st & goal at the 3 as DAL tried 4 straight runs with Barber. SD has covered 5 of its L6 & the lone ATS loss was vs CLE when they were up 20 pts & lost interest. Rivers has passed for 273 ypg (65%) with a 33-8 ratio since last December. SD has the #7 & #9 units (+6 TO’s) the L4W vs CIN’s #23 & #4 units (-2 TO’s) in the same span. Palmer hasn’t looked very effective the L4 with 160 ypg (58%) with a 3-3 ratio & there are rumblings that his elbow isn’t right from LY. CIN hasn’t been the same since the PIT game & have failed to cover 4 straight. They didn’t look like they could handle an elite team LW vs MIN getting outgained 322-210 with 2 drives over 20 yds. SD is used to playing at an elite level when it matters most & CIN’s 2009 party balloon may have deflated. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 34 Cincinnati 17

3* Minnesota over CAROLINA - This is the 4th meeting in five years with the home team going 3-0 SU & ATS. LY the Vikings beat the Panthers 20-10 as a 3 pt HF. MIN had a 305-204 yd edge as their defense dominated with holding CAR to 47 yds rushing (2.4), sacking Delhomme 5 times as CAR was hit with 12 penalties. Favre is 4-0 ATS vs CAR avg 216 ypg (63%) with a 9-2 ratio. The matchups here play well into the Vikings’ hands with the #5 & #7 units (+7 TO’s) vs CAR with the #21 & #15 units (-3 TO’s) who lead the NFL with 31 giveaways. CAR’s biggest matchup weakness is that their strength on offense in the run game (150 ypg 4.9) can be taken away by MIN who is allowing 87 ypg (4.1) by a combination of their DL & an offense that posted 30 ppg in 7 of its L10 games. CAR lacks the passing weapons to challenge here & they have a career LG shifted out to LT Gross’ spot vs DE Allen (12.5 sacks). Yes by playing on grass the Vikings speed edge is diminished & it’s unknown if Harvin will play but Favre (257 ypg 68% 27-6) is playing at a career level & the Vikings still haven’t wrapped up the #2 seed. FORECAST: Minnesota 28 CAROLINA 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* NY JETS over Atlanta - Both teams rested their young QB’s LW due to injuries & it’s not known if either will return here. ATL did a commendable job vs NO LW without 3 offensive starters & its #1 CB. They overcame a 23-9 deficit to tie it up early in the 4Q but were unable to follow it up vs a team without its starting CB’s. Redman had another good game with 303 yds (68%) with a 1-1 ratio but the offense had no balance with a 21/34 run pass ratio & 89 yds (4.2). This will basically be the dome teams 1st road game in a month & in potentially cold & windy surroundings. Clemens started for Sanchez LW & he was underwhelming with 111 yds (52%) vs the #25 defense but the Jets had a 175 (4.2) to 43 (2.2) rush edge & the defense turned 3 TO’s into 10 pts. The Jets have a solid matchup with their #1 rush attack (169 ypg 4.6) vs the Falcons #23 rush defense (118 ypg 4.3). While the Jets are only 18th in sacks by their #1 pass defense is legit with 53% allowed with a very impressive 5.5 ypa & 7-15 ratio with just 1 game where they allowed 2 passing TD’s. The Jets have only allowed 300 yd offense once TY at home (JAX 347) & minus Ginn’s 2 special teams TD’s they have allowed 14.7 ppg at home. We’ll side with the Jets physical rush & defense at home with a shot at the playoffs vs a dome team in the cold off a tough loss. FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Atlanta 10

2* SEATTLE over Tampa Bay - This is the 4th year in a row these teams have met with SEA covering all 3. LY TB beat SEA 20-10 but failed to cover as a 10.5 pt HF. The Bucs had a 17-0 lead at the half as SEA was playing their 3rd different QB in 3 games & TB ended the game with 22-7 FD & 402-176 yd edges. They now get TB’s rookie QB who has 13 int in 6 starts in a long travel situation with the Qwest Field 12th man. LW vs the Jets the Bucs were down 17-0 at the half outFD’d 9-0 & outgained 195-25. SEA was also bullied in the 1H vs HOU LW as they faced a 24-7 deficit & outFD 19-5 & outgained 364-122. They now return home (4-2 SU & ATS) where they are allowing 117 overall yds, 61 rushing yds & 16 pts less than on the road. Hasselbeck is avg 232 ypg (65%) with a 10-4 ratio at home & he didn’t play in the CHI loss. HC Raheem Morris shifted the defense back to the Tampa-2 recently, SEA DC Casey Bradley was the LB coach at TB for 2 years & was recommended to SEA by Monte Kiffin. While SEA will likely be without WLB Curry here we’ll side with a team with a massive home edge vs a young road team that has been held to 7 or less in 3 of its L4 games TY. FORECAST: SEATTLE 23 Tampa Bay 7

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

First meeting. SMiss is making their 8th straight bowl appearance and their 2nd straight trip to this bowl. They beat Troy 30-27 (+4’) here in OT LY in Fedora’s 1st bowl as HC. The Eagles are guaranteed another winning season, their 16th straight. They finished the ssn on a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU). After missing out on postseason play the L2Y, the Raiders return to a bowl game in ‘09 and come in on a roll, having won 6 in a row SU/ATS. HC Stockstill led MT to its 1st ever bowl in ‘06 and they lost 31-14 (+8) to CM in the Motor City Bowl. A win here would give the Raiders their 1st 10 win ssn since moving to 1A in 1999. They faced just 2 bowl tms and went 0-2 SU/ATS and were outscored 34-11 and outgained 408-327. SM faced 4 bowl tms and went 2-2 SU/ATS with even numbers in ppg (29-29) and ypg (437-435). Both tms faced and beat Memphis TY. MT won 31-14 (E) and outgained Mem 436-219. SM won 36-16 (-16) despite being outgained 425-360. Both tms play on turf, but SMiss is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in domes while MT is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Raiders have 9 Sr’s among their 18 upperclassmen starters, while the Eagles have 9 Sr’s out of 16 upperclassmen starters. MT was 4-2 ATS on the road TY, incl 2-2 as a dog. SM went 3-3 ATS on the road, incl 1-2 as a fav. SM should have a large crowd edge as the campus is just over 100 miles from The Big Easy.
The MT off avg 31 ppg and 419 ypg on the yr finishing with our #68 overall ranking. QB Dasher is without question the biggest piece to MT’s success as not only has he passed for more than 2,500 yds (55%, 21-14 ratio), but he also leads the team in rushing and is just 47 yds shy of eclipsing the 1,000 yd barrier (4.8, 11 TD). Trailing Dasher in rushing is RB Kyles who has filled in valiantly for the inj’d Phillip Tanner (714 yds, 3.8, 15 TD in ‘08). The rec yds for the Raiders in ‘09 are split between the trio of McClover, Honeycutt and Andrews, who all have a chance of reaching the 500 yd plateau for the ssn here. The OL avg 6’3” 284 (1 Sr) paving the way for 4.6 ypc while all’g 18 sks (4.4%). The MT def is ranked #58, all’g 23 ppg and 352 ypg. The unit has ply’d well of late all’g only FAU to surpass the 400 yd mark over the past 7 gms. The DL avg 6’2” 256 (2 Sr) and as a group started all 48 gms on the yr. They do depend on the LB’s, however, in the area of sacks as the DL as a whole accounted for just 18.5 of the 38 takedowns (49%). Robinson and Carmichael lead the LB corps ranking 1st and 2nd on the tm this ssn w/a combined 191 tkls (11.5 sks). The secondary earned our #24 ranking all’g 214 ypg (55%) w/a 13-17 ratio led by Bama trans Marcus Udell who recorded an SBC best 7 int. The Raider ST unit finished with our #92 rating as they struggled in the return game on the ssn. The bright spot in the group was the kicking of Gendreau who hit 18-21 (86%) on the ssn.
The Eagles’ up tempo, spread attack is our #44 off avg 33 ppg and 418 ypg. They really didn’t miss a beat when QB Davis was lost for the season (foot) in wk 5. Martevious Young stepped in as his replacement and has played very well. He is avg 225 ypg (58%) with a 13-1 ratio in his 7 sts. They have a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield with the school’s all-time leading rusher Fletcher and Harrison. If Fletcher (972) hits the 1,000 yd mark, he will become just the 9th player in 1A history to rush for 1,000 yds in 4 straight ssns. 6’6” WR Brown is the leading rec with 43 (16.7) and 7 TD. He has big play ability as he and Young hooked up for a 95 yd TD pass vs Tulsa. The OL has 4 Sr starters and avg 6’3” 293. They paved the way for 186 ypg rush (4.7) and all’d just 16 sks (4.5%). SMiss enters with our #70 D all’g 388 ypg and 25 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 274 and is all’g 3.4 ypc and has 19.5 of the team’s 33 sks. LB Korey Williams leads with 112 tkls. They are #66 in our pass D rankings all’g 266 ypg (62%) with a 18-12 ratio, but they have all’d 330+ pass yds in 3 of their L/4 gms, incl 559 to Houston. The Eagles have our #14 ST’s mostly due to their 2 dynamic returnmen, Parham and Lampley. The kicking game has struggled as the 2 K have made 12-18 FG’s, but amazingly they have failed on 10 PAT, incl 1 that was blk’d by EC and ret’d for 2 pts, which may have cost SM a trip to the CUSA title game.The Golden Eagles now have their 16th str winning season and their 8th str bowl appearance. They’ve covered their L/3 bowl gms and finished this season covering 3 straight. MT made solid improvements and a win here would give them their 1st 10 win ssn and match their comb win total from the previous 2Y. They also come in playing excellent ball having won and covered 6 str games although all were vs the SBC (minus Troy). We will side with the proven winner that has edges on both sides of the line and has skill players that are not only better, but have proven themselves over the last several years.

MTi Sports

4-Star – DETROIT +12’ over Arizona – Arizona started the season 5-0 in their first five road games, but have lost their last two. This is their final road game of the regular season and the linesmakers have made them a big favorite over the Lions. We’re not convinced.The Cardinals were extraordinarily flat last Monday Night against the 49ers. Warner and his receivers were completely out-of synch. He threw two interceptions, fumbled twice and was sacked four times. As a team, the Cardinals committed seven turnovers, were flagged for eleven penalties and lost 24-9.This is a big number for them to cover on the road when they had so many problems last week. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-10.1 ppg) on the road the week after scoring fewer than 10 points, 0-6 ATS (-9.2 ppg) on the road when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 100 fewer yards than their season-to-date average and 0-5 ATS since 2005 on the road the week after they allowed at least four sacks, losing every game straight up and failing to cover by an average of 14.0 ppg. Whenever a quality team has a lackadaisical effort, they usually fall back on sound fundamental football — especially if they are on the road. This conservative strategy makes it hard for them to cover a big number. The Lions are especially potent against a team that has committed a lot of turnovers season-to-date. The reason is clear: teams that have a tendency to turn the ball over, play very conservatively vs the Lions , thus allowing Detroit to hang around. In fact, the Lions are 13-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) since 1997 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.2 turnovers per game season-to-date. Detroit is actually 10-3 straight up in this situation. They were a double-digit home dog in this situation only once. The game was in week 17, 2003. Detroit was getting 11 vs the Rams and they won outright 30-20.Detroit was annihilated last week by the Ravens, losing 48-3. The Lions are actually a solid play after a bad loss, going 14-1-2 ATS as a TD+ dog off a 21+ point loss — including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were getting more than ten points. This season, they are 2-0 in this situation giving the Steelers and Bengals all they can handle. The fact that the Lions are banged up will only contribute to the overconfidence and conservatism of the Cardinals. We’ll grab this big number.

Arizona 27 DETROIT 20

4-Star Chicago at Baltimore OVER 40’ — The Baltimore Ravens finally got the offense going last week against the Lions, explod- ing for 48 points. That’s right, none of the Ravens’ 48 points came from the defense or special teams. Baltimore had 548 yards of offense which was comprised of 308 rushing yards and 240 yards through the air. The Ravens held the Lions to only 3 points and 0-for-4 on their fourth down attempts. Baltimore is 6-0 OU at home after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home, going over by an average of 11.6 ppg.Usually, when a team scores 47 points it is from a combination of defensive TDs, special team TDs and down-the-field passing attack. However, Baltimore passed 23 times and rushed 40 times and five of their six touchdowns were via the rush. Further, the Lions only committed two turnovers. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 OU when they are off a game in which they rushed for at least ten times more than their season-to-date average, flying over by an average of 20.9 ppg, as long as the OU line is less than 44. Yikes.Their win over the Lions put the Ravens at 7-6 on the season. This has been launching point for a long string of OVERs. The league as a whole is 9-0 OU when they are off a double-digit win that got them to 7-6 on the season, as long as they did not benefit from five-plus turnovers from their opponent. The Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) for this situation is:wins = 7 and losses = 6 and p:margin >= 10 and po:turnovers 1996As you can see by running the query, teams in this situation have gone over the total by an average of 13.2 ppg in this situation. AND you can see that there is yet another active date this week.The anchor, for this play, however, is a league-wide system that states, “The league is 19-0 OU (+11.9 ppg) since late 2004 as a dog the week after a loss in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties as long as they weren’t getting more than four points in that loss.” This system produced two double-digit overs last season and this is the first active date for this system this season. It is the Bears that qualify, as they committed 109 yards of penalties last week against the Packers.Finally, for what it’s worth, the Bears are 11-0 OU (+10.6 ppg) since October 1994 when they play on Monday Night football the following week. All this and a low total compels us to grab the OVER.

BALTIMORE 30 Chicago 20

Sportsbook Breakers Newsletter

4-STAR Cleveland +2 over KANSAS CITY – The Browns have something to build on. After a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh on Thurs- day night, momentum is on Cleveland’s side even though it was just one game. More importantly is the extra rest and preparation Cleveland has for this one. The Browns are 4-1 ATS since 2005 with more than seven days rest and not on opening day. We expect them to use this to their advantage over a disheartened Chiefs team. Due to the bitter cold and 30+ miles per hour winds, Cleveland only threw the ball 19 times against Pittsburgh, as Josh Cribbs was the most effective quarterback on the field. The League is 14-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since November 26, 2007 on the road the week after as a dog of less than 15 points in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average The Browns were a 10 point underdog in the game against the Steelers. Cleveland is 12-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since Christmas 2004 on the road on Sunday when they were a dog of more than six points in their last game and didn’t lose by 28+ The Browns did not commit any turnovers in that game, which was huge with moving the ball being difficult. The Browns are 10-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a road dog past week two the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers The Chiefs are in a rare three game home stand, and have lost the past two. Kansas City is 0-12-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as no more than a eight point favorite in week 14 and beyond when they played at home last game. Kansas City has now lost and failed to cover in their last three games. The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since November 21, 1999 within five of pick at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games The difficulty of Arrowhead stadium is currently gone, isn’t it? While normal the advantage of playing three straight at home would be a big advantage, with a disheartened fan base that has seen losses the last two weeks, a road trip might be what the Chiefs need, and not status quo. Look for the Browns to takeadvantage of a team going through the motions.

Cleveland 17, KANSAS CITY 13

4.5-STAR Arizona and Detroit Over 46.5 – Detroit’s defense is looking miserable right now. Last week, they allowed 48 points to a Ravens team that had not scored more than 17 in regulation in five weeks. A few weeks ago, they allowed the Browns to score 37 points. Look for Arizona alone to get close to this total. The SportsBook Breakers Team Trend of the Week (see pg. 7 for more details) features this game this week. The trend reads, the Cardinals are 23-0 OU since November 17, 2002 when facing a team that has averaged at least 33 passes season-to-date not on a Monday, if they weren’t more than a five point favorite last game This is the Cardinals final road tilt of the regular season of the season, as they play at home the final two weeks. Arizona is 11-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks Unbelievably, Arizona turned over the ball seven times in their 24-9 loss to San Francisco. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers The Cardinals offense is rarely held down like this and they’ve responded the next game. Arizona is 7-0 OU (8.6 ppg) since Decem-ber 08, 2002 the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road Detroit’s offense has struggled offensively, scoring less than expected in three straight games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since October 07, 1990 as a 7+ dog when their dps was negative in their last three games Arizona’s offense had a major hiccup last week, as the Cardinals tend to do. However, they generally bounce back strong. We expect that to occur this week.

ARIZONA 42, Detroit 20