[Sticky] Newsletters for NFL Week 11 & NCAA Football Week 12

TOLEDO over Central Michigan by 16
It’s been death by a thousand chips for CMU; they’re just not a very good team. They’ve lost four straight, and HC Jim McElwain may get knocked off Mount Pleasant after this campaign. We don’t wish Jim ill will, but it might be time to contact a realtor when you are 1-8 ATS in your last nine road games and 2-13 ATS in your last 15 conference games. The Rockets stole one against Eastern Michigan last week thanks to three fourth-quarter TD tosses by Tucker “The Great One” Gleason. Toledo is a game out of the fight for a berth in the MAC title game and needs some charity to slide in. Toledo leads the conference at a plus 61-point differential, which shows the strength of the MAC as compared to those soft TV conferences that don’t have the stomach to play on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

BOWLING GREEN over Western Michigan by 12
The Broncos had a shot to grab solo first in the MAC at 5-0 but fell to Northern Illinois, making the Falcons quite happy. Both teams are part of a 4-1 foursome, with only two making it to Ford Field for the title bout. Western has a long history of letting one loss become two, going 1-7 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS loss. The Broncos’ defense could also use a plumber, having given up season-high yardage in three of their five conference games. This is good news for BG RB Terion Stewart, who’s amassed 340 ground yards in the last three games, all Falcons wins. Falcons’ Quarterback Connor Bazelak hasn’t thrown an interception since September 28, meaning the Broncos may be muttering about how you can mend a broken heart. It will be some Lonely Days for WMU if the BG’s keep MAC Title game hopes Stayin’ Alive.

BUFFALO over Ball State by 11
Neither side is a contender for the ultimate college football trophy, the MAC Championship, so bowl dreams are in the hippocampus of each team. Buffalo (5-4) just needs one more, and with Kent State looming, the Bulls can start figuring out if they want a urethane or reactive resin bowling ball. Ball State has had all five conference games decided by one score but has just two wins. Ball’s defense has improved, but there was nowhere to go but up to 123rd in total defense. The Cardinals have been clipped in the stats by an average of -106 YPG, a major sin in the sharp eyes of The Playbook. Ball is a keen 10-1 ATS in their last 11 MAC outings, and the Bulls, once 5-0 SUATS in next to-last home games from 2016-2020, have failed in those games since. We’re counting on Buffalo to return to its ‘glory’ days.

Wednesday, Nov 13

MIAMI (OHIO) over Kent State by 35
In their last midweek “effort,” Kent was outgained 407-114 and managed seven first downs against Ohio. In other words, business as usual for the country’s worst program. There are nine schools being outgained by more than 100 yards per game, but the Golden Grahams have taken this to a new level, being outgained by more than 200 yards per game. Plus, Kent has been outscored by 278 points so far. The RedHawks are far from an explosive offense, but you’d better believe stat padding is locker-room talk in Oxford. MOH has been 30 points-plus favorites three times previously, and three times, they’ve broken the tape while averaging over 51 points per game. Wednesday night means football for Miami; they’re 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine under the cool lights. It’s more like D’OH! for the Flashes.

OHIO over Eastern Michigan by 1
Ohio has been one of the conference’s strongest programs for most of this century, and 2024 is no exception. The Bobcats are in the four-way battle royal for the top of the MAC table and are already bowl-eligible. EMU will not be an easy out, though. The Eagles are 5-4 and were a play away from 6-3 when, after scoring as time expired, Eastern Coach Chris Creighton blew off the try for a tie and went for a two-point conversion vs. Toledo. It failed on the last play of the game. Eastern is still carrying bowl dreams thanks to being 7-2 in the Stats and appears to be the better offense. A number we find as attractive as Cindy Crawford in a Pepsi commercial is the Eagles' 13-2 ATS mark as a conference dog of four or more against .500 or greater opponents.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS over Akron by 18
You must admire the consistency of Zippers football in 2024. They are ranked 120th in offense and defense but can always point with disdain toward the Northeast and Kent State’s campus. NIU clogged the MAC drain last week with their resounding win over W. Michigan; now, a bowl game is in the sights of the Fighting Irish conquerors. In the Red Corner, you have an NIU team that’s just 1-11 ATS as home chalk, but in the Black Corner, 10-2 ATS as home chalk in game number 10 in the conference. Better news: it appears the Huskies are going to reject advances from the Mountain West to leave the Mid-American. The Action Network reports that with NIU staying, Toledo won’t jump either. A celebratory taking down of the Zippers seems appropriate.

Thursday, Nov 14

East Carolina over TULSA by 18
The city of Tulsa considers itself the next Austin, Texas, but we can assure you that the football in Austin is way, way, way better than in Chapman Stadium. Of the last 12 home games, Tulsa is 2-10 ATS and 2-10 ATS when coming off a road loss. They don’t score much and are burdened with an open border defense that gives up nearly 39 PPG. The Pirates are in the midst of a generous schedule run of Temple, Bye, FAU, and now Tulsa. If ECU holds up its end on Thursday, that stretch will place the Pirates in a bowl game. In their last 17 road Game 10’s, the Easterners are 15-2 ATS. QB Katon Houser has 13 TD tosses in his last three games, plus two rushing touchdowns, and should be able to house a few more scores for the Purple Pirates. A win means consecutive bowl trips for ECU, a BIG achievement after an unlucky seven-year post-season drought.