Newsletters for NFL Week 7 & NCAAF Week 8

Western Kentucky over SAM HOUSTON STATE by 3
Wednesday’s here to save the early week with a strong matchup between the 4-2 Hilltoppers and 5-1 Sam Houston. Both teams have a legit shot at winning the conference regular season title, sitting at 2-0, tied with Jacksonville State for second behind 3-0 Liberty. The Bearkats opened FBS Year One with an eight-game losing streak but have gone 8-2 since. QB Hunter Watson is a legit dual threat, with nine combined touchdowns, while his Hilltoppers counterpart Caden Veltkamp has 11 TD passes and four on the ground. WKU has recovered nicely from a 63-point loss to Alabama in Week 1 and looks like a bowl team for the 10th time in 11 years. WKU has shown strength on the road, going 15-4-1 ATS as a road dog in the Fun Belt, including a 6-0 ATS run with a winning record that will penetrate the foggiest of brains. Hilltoppers’ Head Coach Tyson Helton also carries a rep for putting cash in people’s pockets, going 10-5 SUATS road record after a previous loss. Much as we are enamored with SHSU and their turnaround, a 1-4 outright record against winning teams is a giant STOP sign even Mr. Magoo could see.

Florida International over UTEP by 8
We’ve gone from the ridiculous to the sublime and now back to the ridiculous. To borrow a tennis term, UTEP has been bageled at 0-6 while scoring 16 PPG. FIU at least has a win but also somehow lost to Monmouth (that’s to Monmouth, not at Monmouth, although the Daily Racing Form wouldn’t have nice things to say about the Panthers), losing the stats in five of six. But it’s on the schedule, so load ‘em in the starting gate, and we’re off. Making matters worse, FIU has been out-yarded in 15 of its last 17 games yet finds itself the road favorite, which sums up 2024 UTEP football in a sentence. The Miners pulled off the upset last year in Miami while being a 3.5-point underdog, and we can’t see back-to-back wins for UTEP, even one year apart.

THURSDAY, OCT 17

VIRGINIA TECH over Boston College by 3
It can’t be a good sign in Blacksburg when the Sports Illustrated Virginia Tech page asks, “Why Do the Hokies Keep Making Coaching Errors?” VPI is 5-1 ATS as a conference favorite of 7 or greater but 1-9 ATS when coming off a road win, such as Week 5’s win over The Tree at Stanford. Coming off rest, it takes time for the Hokies to get their sea legs; they’re 1-4 ATS at home with rest. Boston College had a cup of coffee in the Top 25 this season but are 2-2 after a 2-0 start. The Eagles packed double revenge in their carry-ons and a 7-2 ATS record as conference dogs with double revenge. Weekdays, BC is 10-7-3 ATS. The Eagles are only giving up 17.7 PPG and have one of the more capable QBs in the ACC in Thomas Castellanos, who delivered some nice stats but not a victory against Virginia two weeks ago. BC hasn’t won in Lane Stadium since 2018, and a sold-out Orange Effect crowd will be hyped from the opening notes of Metallica’s “Enter Sandman”. Say your prayers, little one. Don’t forget, my son, to take the points in an even matchup.

MARSHALL over Georgia State by 5
Georgia State has a win over Vanderbilt, which looks better all the time, but dropped their last two games in Sun Belt play to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, so the air is running out of the balloon for the Panthers to have a say in the Sun Belt East race (bowl hopes are also beginning to look pale). Marshall is 3-3, but it’s not loaded with high quality; the Herd is 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) against FBS foes, losing that stats battle by -127 yards per game. Marshall will need RB A.J. Turner in his best form, especially since the Herd has a modest passing attack, although an impressive 15:2 TD/INT ratio with a two QB “system” that’s more borne from not being able to nail down a clear number one between Stone Earle and Braylon Braxton. GSU is in the same leaky dinghy trying to figure out who QB1 is, either up-and-coming Christian Velleux or former Pitt Panther Zach Gibson, who has faltered lately. Georgia State brings a fat stat to the hills of Huntington, WV, 10-1 ATS as the underdog when a favorite the previous game, enough of an edge to tilt our wheels towards the visitors.