Goldsheet
BALTIMORE (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Balt. 13-5 14-4 24 15 144 172 46-22-17 82 188 28-5-18 20 5.0 4.1
Pitt. 13-4 10-7 22 15 109 205 43-19-20 76 164 24-7-15 6 2.5 4.4
*PITTSBURGH 24 - Baltimore 13—The remarkable, undaunted Joe Flacco has already become the first rookie QB to win his first two playoff games, both on the road no less! The former Delaware star is reminding many of the performance of another 6-6 rookie from a largely unheralded college who took his team to the AFC title game in his maiden voyage just four years ago, that—of course—being none other than the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger from Miami- O. But in this battle between the league’s two most ferocious defenses, it’s probably good to remember that Roethlisberger (three interceptions) lost his first AFC title game 41-27 to the Patriots. In the first of two AFC North meetings between these two familiar foes this season, Pittsburgh gained a 23-20 OT victory in Pittsburgh September 29 after the very young Flacco led his team on a late, 76-yard drive against the Steelers’ famed zone-blitz defense and in front of a roaring crowd to tie the game at 20. In the second meeting in Maryland, Pittsburgh (culminating a 92-yard drive) won 13-9 on a last-minute, scrambling pass from Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes that most Raven fans remain unconvinced ever broke the plane of the end zone. It might be important to note that Flacco had more problems in the second (11 of 28, 0 TDs, 2 ints., 2 sacks) than in the first (16 of 31, 192 yards, 1 TD, 0 ints., 5 sacks) of those two games. And, against what is often the league’s most confusing defense, and in the crucible of playoff pressure that once melted the young Roethlisberger, it will take a Herculean effort by Flacco to avoid key mistakes. Moreover, let’s remember that both Roethlisberger and RB Willie Parker (146 YR last week vs. S.D.) are now much healthier after battling injuries for much of the season. In the first Raven game, Parker was out, while Roethlisberger was beat up after being sacked nine times the previous week vs. the Eagles. In the second meeting, Parker was not yet 100%. Parker (27 for 146 yards) showed more speed, and Roethlisberger threw freely and accurately last week against the Chargers.Even though the Ravens won their Divisional Round game at Tennessee, let’s remember they were outgained nearly 2 to 1 (391 to 211) and benefited greatly from the early injury sustained by Titan RB Chris Johnson, a slew of Tennessee penalties, and a key Titan fumble inside the Baltimore five in the closing minutes.In the eight games of the playoffs so far this season, the team that has emerged victorious has inevitably been the one that made the fewest mistakes. Thus, much credit goes to the Ravens for their five takeaways vs. the Dolphins and three vs. the Titans. Rookie HC John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron have done an excellent job minimizing the pressure on their young QB. Steelers, Baltimore’s own powerful defense will hold little or no advantage vs. Pittsburgh’s, which was first in yards, first in points against, second against the run, first against the pass, and second in sacks. And it’s the playoff veteran QB (Roethlisberger) who is most likely to avoid the killer miscues that so frequently doom young players in title games.
PHILADELPHIA (11-6-1) at ARIZONA (11-7)
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Philad. 11-6 12-6 26 17 102 245 49-16-25 98 180 33-9-19 4 2.5 4.6
Arizona 11-7 10-7 27 26 78 287 58-16-35 106 218 57-15-39 7 -.8 5.7
ARIZONA 29 - Philadelphia 24—This is hardly new territory for Philly, which participated in four straight NFC title games earlier this decade (2001-’02-’03-’04), with many of the same protagonists involved (HC Andy Reid, QB Donovan McNabb, LT Tra Thomas, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, S Brian Dawkins) in most of those games. Conversely, Arizona is truly in uncharted territory, reaching its first title game of any kind since the franchise was based in Chicago in 1948. But before conceding any playoff experience edge to the Eagles, remember that there are several important components on the Cardinal roster that indeed have significant postseason pedigrees. QB Kurt Warner has played in two Super Bowls with the Rams, winning one of those; HC Ken Whisenhunt and asst. HC Russ Grimm were key members of the Pittsburgh staff that won the Super Bowl three years ago; RB Edgerrin James a veteran of several playoff outings during his days at Indy.We also don’t want to put too much emphasis on Philly’s rousing 48-20 Thanksgiving night win at the cold Linc over the Cards, a game in which the dynamics bore little or no resemblance to this week’s contest. The Eagles were in a do-or-die situation that night, needing a win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, with McNabb given one last chance to save his starting job after being benched the week before at Baltimore. Conversely, Arizona had all but sewn up the NFC West and was understandably flat, falling behind 21-0 early in the 2nd Q and never having a look at the game. The motivated McNabb passed for 4 TDs, while the disinterested Cards never even bothered to balance their offense, running the ball all of 10 times that night.Needless to say, many factors are different for the rematch, not the least of which is the venue (this time, home advantage to Arizona) and the fact the Cards have caught an updraft the past few weeks when rededicating themselves to establishing the run. To that end, the re-emergence of James,along with underrated rookie Tim Hightower, has provided an infantry diversion (including an impressive 145 YR vs. Carolina’s robust stop unit last week in Charlotte) that has made Warner’s job a lot easier. The expected return of All- Pro WR Anquan Boldin means Warner will have the top two NFC ‘08 receivers (Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald) available, as well as the quietly effective Steve Breaston, himself a 1000-yard pass catcher this season. Warner’s quick release, which mostly kept him out of trouble at Charlotte, figures to do the same vs. the Eagle pass rush. And the souped-up Cardinal “O” has a lot more confidence and firepower than the recent opponents Jim Johnson’s impressive Philly stop unit has stonewalled (none of the last 6 having scored more than 14 points).Granted, McNabb’s stirring recovery from the abyss has generated headlines, and we don’t expect McNabb to self-destruct as did Jake Delhomme last week. But on the biggest stages in his pro career,remember that McNabb is 1-4 in conference title games and Super Bowls, and even diehard Eagle supporters admit that McNabb’s receiving targets do not compare with Warner’s. As long as the Cardinal “D” continues to make the plays it has the past two weeks vs. Atlanta & Carolina, the team playing better football at the moment might indeed be the one getting the points from the oddsmakers. And what long seemed impossible might actually happen...a Bill Bidwill-owned team in the Super Bowl!
Nelly's Greensheet
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL playoff team facing a third consecutive road game
PLAY AGAINST: Philadelphia, Baltimore (PLAY ON: Arizona, Pittsburgh)
28-15-1, 65.1% since 1981
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
NFL: All trends are Against the Spread unless noted (S/U):
Philadelphia is 7-10-1 L18 as R/F – Philadelphia is 5-0 L5 road playoff games
Arizona is 15-8-1 L24 as H/D – Arizona is 15-8 L23 home games
Baltimore is 8-3 L11 as underdogs – Baltimore is 6-2 L8 vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 8-11 L19 as favorites – Pittsburgh is 6-10 L16 home playoff games
Philadelphia (-3) ARIZONA (48) 4:00 PM
Few gave the Cardinals a shot to win one game in the playoffs yet Arizona has been arguably the most impressive team in the playoffs so far with a complete dismantling of the heavily favored Panthers. Turnovers played a huge role in the game but Arizona responded well to allowing an opening score and has been a much better defensive team than most are giving credit. Arizona has allowed an average of just 259 yards per game in two playoff games, the best of any team still standing. Everyone knew Arizona had a dangerous passing attack but the surprise has been an effective ground game and the Cardinals should actually have a distinct edge on the ground in this match-up with the Eagles. Philadelphia has succeeded against superior defenses in knocking off Minnesota and New York but this will be a very tough situation, facing a third straight road game and cross country travel. Many will point to the regular season meeting between these teams where Philadelphia clobbered the Cardinals 48-20 on Thanksgiving but Arizona had four turnovers in that game. It was also a much more favorable situation for the Eagles as QB McNabb had been benched the previous game in a blowout loss against Baltimore and the Cardinals were coming off a hard fought narrow loss to the Giants. Statistically the Eagles own the 3rd best defense in the NFL, joining Baltimore and Pittsburgh as the three top defenses in the league and teams still playing this week. The Eagles have also allowed just over ten points per game in the past five games. Although Arizona was blown out against Philadelphia the Cardinals did score more against the Eagles than any other team in the second half of the season. Turnovers will be the name of the game for the Cardinals as they have had a few ugly losses built on turnovers and a few big wins built on turnovers.Although Philadelphia has the superior defense the offense has also gone through a lot of frustrating stretches and although McNabb is being praised for great play he has four turnovers in two postseason games this year. Kurt Warner has thrown an interception in each playoff win but remember Warner is the QB in this match-up that has won a Super Bowl. McNabb is the QB that has lost three NFC Championship games. Although Philadelphia’s defense seems to be the team more likely to force turnovers with the great pressure the defense can put on opposing QBs, the Eagles will have the more one-dimensional offense and Arizona’s defense has been playing with a lot of intensity. Favorites in the postseason facing a third straight road game have never won. CARDINALS 28-27 RATING 2: ARIZONA (+3) RATING 2 : ‘OVER 48’
PITTSBURGH (-5) Baltimore (33) 7:30 PM
Both teams have had a lot of things go their way in the playoffs as Baltimore has received eight turnovers in two games. The Ravens were badly out-gained last week against Tennessee and although most want to credit the vaunted Ravens defense for creating turnovers there has certainly been an element of good fortune considering the timing and positioning of the turnovers. The Ravens also got help from a non-call on an obvious delay of game penalty that would have made a critical third-down play more difficult on the game winning drive. If the Ravens have been fortunate, the Steelers have been downright lucky. Pittsburgh got every break imaginable last week to turn a tight game into a blowout in a dominant 3rd quarter where San Diego ran just one offensive play. It has been a common theme for the Steelers this season as a number of close and questionable calls as well as several unusual fluky plays have gone Pittsburgh’s way. Last week it was a tipped pass turned into a suspect interception that survived review, an iffy 60-yard pass interference penalty, and a punt landing on a San Diego player’s head, not to mention a punt return for a touchdown. It was an impressive showing from the Pittsburgh defense against the run but QB Rivers passed for over 300 yards with good numbers last week and keep in mind the Chargers were an 8-8 team playing without its best offensive and defensive players across the country in bad weather. Pittsburgh had the top ranked defense in the league this season in total yards and points allowed but the numbers were not nearly as strong against playoff caliber teams. These teams played two close games in the regular season with Pittsburgh winning both, one in OT and the other on one of the most questionable officiating decisions of the season. Baltimore rookie QB Joe Flacco has been exactly what Baltimore has needed but he has simply avoided making mistakes and has not posted strong numbers in two playoff games. The Baltimore running game has had as much success as anyone against Pittsburgh, topping 100 yards in both meetings this season. Flacco passed for a total of just 230 yards in the two games however. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 91 yards in the last seven meetings with the Ravens so even though the Steelers running game re-emerged last week late in the game against a tired San Diego defense, RB Parker and company should struggle this week. Although we feel this Pittsburgh team is overrated, the Ravens defense is banged up with four starters already questionable this week and facing a third straight road game with a rookie QB and coach is a daunting task. The Steelers have not been a trustworthy team as a favorite this season but too much positive momentum appears to be with this team and it is tough to go against them. Pittsburgh has more big game experience and home field edge still means something despite the lopsided results in favor of road teams so far this postseason. STEELERS 17-10 RATING 1: PITTSBURGH (-5) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 33’
OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia/Arizona ‘OVER 48’
Although both teams deserve a ton of credit on defense in delivering the past two wins , this game should be dominated by the passing game. Both teams struggled to run the ball in the regular season and although Arizona has had some success in the postseason it will be much tougher to run against the Eagles defense. This game should be decided by two prolific veteran passing QBs that have both been to Super Bowls but also can be turnover prone. Last week both NFC games stayed ‘under’ but both were on pace to go ‘over’ until late turnovers crippled several drives and took away scoring opportunities. These teams combined for 68 points in the regular season meeting and weather will not be an issue in this venue.Neither team will likely run the ball with great success which will slow the game down and likely create a high scoring game
POINTWISE
PHILADELPHIA (11-6-1) at ARIZONA (11-7)
VEGAS LINE: PHILADELPHIA BY 3½ -- OVER/UNDER: 48
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Philadelphia 48.6 . 26- 18 .. 20-16 .. 102- 98 .. 245- 179 .. + 4 . Philadelphia
Arizona ....... 47.3 . 27- 26 .. 21-20 .... 79-105 .. 287- 218 .. + 7 . by 2.4 Pts
Fittingly, this contest continues the rematch flavor that dominates this year's NFL playoffs, especially in the Divisional & Conference Title contests, in which all six games feature teams that have already played each other this season. One hardly requires a long memory to recall the brutal 48-20 slaying of the Cards, by Philly, on Thanksgiving Day, in which McNabb was a brilliant 27-of-39 for 260 yds & 4 TDs (no picks). And check a 185-25 RY edge, to boot. That game jump-started the Eagles' current run 6-1 SU/ATS run. As a matter of fact, in their last 6 games, that Philly "D" has allowed just 4 TDs, 10.8 ppg, with 12 takeaways. Note holding the Giants to just 3 FGs on 5 drives inside the Eagle 20. McNabb: 45-of-74 for 500 yds in the playoffs, leading Philly to its 5th title game in the last 8 years. So, this one should be fairly easy, right? Wrong. The fact of the matter, is that the Cards are a rejuvenated squad, which has rediscovered its early season magic. As a result, 'Zona has become the first-ever 9-7 (regular season) team to host a title game. As noted last week, the Cards have won only 4 playoff tilts in their franchise history, with this marking their 2nd post-season hosting role since 1947. Sure, they have an explosive "O", led by Warner (34/16), who is still "money" when given time, along with a bevy of quality receivers (Fitzgerald: 166 receiving yds LW). But check a revitalized "D", which has held the #5 & #4 rushing teams to 67.5 RYpg the last 2 weeks, allowing only 32 RYs over the final 57 minutes vs Carolina. With Boldin back, no reason 'Zona can't stay with yet another of the elites. To the wire.
PROPHECY: ARIZONA 23 - Philadelphia 20 RATING: 5
BALTIMORE (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
VEGAS LINE: PITTSBURGH BY 5 -- OVER/UNDER: 33
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Baltimore .... 49.3 . 23- 15 .. 18-14 .. 144- 81 .. 173- 188 .. +20 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh ... 48.8 . 23- 15 .. 18-15 .. 109- 76 .. 204- 164 .. + 6 . by 1.6 Pts
It has been quite a playoff season thus far, with the dog not only covering 5-of-8 games, but winning all of those 5 outright. Ditto the visitor. As a matter of fact, this past week saw 3 road teams (underdogs, all) winning outright for the first time since 1971. Quite something. The only squad to uphold the honor of the home chalks, was this Steeler outfit, which, as every knowledgeable fan is aware, owns the top defense in the NFL. As a result, Pitt has earned the right to host its sixth AFC Title game in the last 15 years (1-4 so far). Their rushing "D" was front-&- center, in its win over the Chargers, holding SanDiego to 15 RYs, after it piled up 167 vs the Colts, the previous week. Offensively, Pitt ranks just 22nd, but a healthy Parker sure spruced up that "O", with 146 RYs (5.4 ypr), in that 35-pt display, with Ben a solid 17-of-26. By the way, the Steelers entered the playoffs with the worst "O" among post-season squads. The Ravens just keep on doing it, taking the Titans, despite 21-9 FD, 391-211 yd, & 34:07-25:52 time deficits. Came from a 416-144 RY edge in their previous 2 games, to a 116-50 RY deficit in that squeaking win over Tennessee. Baltimore is on an 11-2 SU run, as well as a 15-3-1 ATS run, allowing only 8.4 ppg in 7 of its last 8 outings. This marks the 3rd meeting of this season for these 2, with the Steelers prevailing in the first 2, by the slimmest of margins: OT in their 1st meeting (23-20), & by a controversial TD in their 2nd match (13-9). The Steelers have the best home field record since the '70 merger,but this will be a bloodbath. As they say, nothing will be left on the field after this.
PROPHECY: BALTIMORE 16 - Pittsburgh 13 RATING: 5
Sports Memo
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA +3 O/U 47
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - Arizona returns home after winning the NFC West and Philadelphia making the playoffs by way of the Wild Card. Fundamentals - Arizona’s stigma of having a soft defense and being one-dimensional on offense hasn’t held true through two postseason games. The Cardinals held Atlanta’s vaunted run game to 65 yards and Carolina to 75. They had just 13 INTs during the regular season but seven over the last two weeks. Overall, this looks like a team that is finally maximizing its talent after coasting through much of the regular season playing in the weak NFC West. Philadelphia shut down the passing games of Minnesota and the Giants. The key looks to be keeping Kurt Warner on his feet. The veteran has been sacked just once in two postseason games and with weather not an issue, we expect Arizona to have success through the air. Game Notes - Arizona is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Both of their home losses ironically came against Minnesota and the NY Giants. Edgerrin James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. Two of those efforts came in the playoffs. When he fails to get 10 carries, the Cardinals are 4-6 SU. Final Take - With a strong home field advantage and catching a field goal -- potentially +3.5 or +4 by game time -- we’ll ignore the home woes for playoff teams and back the Cardinals.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH -6 O/U 33.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Situational - The Ravens will be looking for their third consecutive road win in the playoffs. They will also be searching for their first win in three tries against division rival Pittsburgh. Fundamentals - In four games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee, Joe Flacco completed just 51.8% of his passes. In both playoff games, he continues to struggle, failing to throw a passing touchdown. The story has been the Ravens’ +7 turnover margin in the playoffs. Without those takeaways, Baltimore would have lost to Tennessee and won’t have a shot against Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in every key defensive category and we look for another strong effort against a suspect Ravens’ offense. Game Notes - The Ravens may be without three starters on the defensive side as Terrell Suggs (shoulder), Samari Rolle (groin) and Jim Leonhard (concussion) are listed as questionable on the early reports. Final Take - After watching Tennessee and Miami move the ball with relative ease we question whether the Ravens’ defense is truly on par with Pittsburgh. We know the Steelers have proven commodities on the offensive end with Big Ben and Hines Ward. The same cannot be said for Joe Flacco and company. We’ll call for the luck to run out for Baltimore in the turnover category and for Pittsburgh to comfortably move on to the Super Bowl.
Marc Lawrence Playbook
Philadelphia over ARIZONA by 7
Wouldn’t you know it? The team nobody wants to face is now one game removed from the Super Bowl. Last Sunday’s whuppin’ at New York kept the Eagles on track to repeat last year’s feat by the Giants (and that of the Steelers in 2005), namely being a No. 6 seed riding its way on the highway to the Super Bowl. To do so they need to beat the Cardinals for the 2nd time this season, only this time in Arizona. When last they met the Eagles routed the Red Birds, 48- 20, as 3-point home favorites Thanksgiving night. That victory improved Andy Reid’s record to 7-2 ATS in this series. And speaking of Andy he’s been just dandy in the playoffs when squaring off against .705 or less opponents, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in his career. Strangely, this game marks just the 4th time since 1980 that both teams off SU underdog playoff wins will face one another in a game other than the Super Bowl. The good news for the Cardinals is that home teams in this role are 3-0 SU and ATS. The bad news, though, is that all of them were favored, meaning underdogs are 0-3 SU and ATS. What to do, you ask? You could turn to Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS record in home games. But then again we’d be obliged to inform you of his 0-3 SU and ATS mark at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Then there’s the fact that teams off a SU playoff win as a dog of 7 or more points (read: Arizona) are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their next game this decade – all as a dog! And dog lovers will say that playoff home dogs are 16-6 ATS since 1980. Our database, though, tells us that home dogs in Championship Round games are only 4-4 ATS. It also reminds us that teams in this game off a win over a division rival (read: Philadelphia) are 6-0 SU and ATS. Trends and history aside, this game will be won on the playing field and we’ll back the team with the better net stats and the superior defense. Look out Tampa. The Eagles will be landing.
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 10
Like the Eagles and Giants of a week ago, the Steelers and Ravens lock division horns for the 3rd time this season with the loser packing their bags and calling it a season. It’s been widely reported by players and talking heads alike that beating the same team three times in the same season is not an easy task. The fact of the matter is same season double revenge matchups have occurred nineteen times since 1980. The team that lost the first two games has gone on to lose eleven of the nineteen 3rd game rematches in the playoffs, going 10-8-1 ATS in the process. While holding a slight overall ATS advantage, they are just 2-7 SU and ATS as favorites or dogs of 5.5 or less points but 5-4 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when taking 6 or more.Statistically speaking, this game pairs the top two defenses in the league. The Steelers have outgained ten of their last eleven foes while the Ravens, with their 211-391 yard ‘inside-out’ stat win last week, are 7-5 ITS (In The Stats) in their last twelve games. Mike Tomlin is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS in division duels, including this year’s 23-20 overtime and 13-9 victories over Baltimore. And the 202 yards they held the Ravens to a month ago amounted to a season-low for the Black Birds.Hence, it’s no surprise to learn that Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS against division foes in the playoffs since 1978. Meanwhile, the Ravens lead the league in takeaways and have turned the ball over only ten times in their last thirteen games. They will, however, be playing their 18th straight game without rest whereas the Steelers will be entering their 12th game with two weeks off spaced in between. One has to wonder if the proverbial wall is waiting to hit rookie QB Joe Flacco.The bottom line is teams off double-digit wins with the greater win percentage hold the winning hand in Championship Round games, especially when laying less than 10 points against an opponent off a win of 3 or more points, as they are 20-5 SU and ATS since 1980. It’s looking more and more like a Keystone State Super Bowl in the making.
Logical Approach
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Sunday, January 18, 2009 - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Opening Line: Philadelphia - 3 ½, currently - 3 ½; Opening Total: 48 ½, currently 48 ½
Arizona's performance in winning their first two Playoff games has started to make believers of those who have considered the Cardinals to be one of the weakest Playoff teams ever. The perception had validity considering how Arizona's season played out. The Cards were 6-0 against their weak NFC West Division rivals (who were a combined 13-35 this season) while going just 3-7 against the rest of the NFL. In the 6 Divisional wins Arizona outscored their rivals by a total of 79 points while being outscored by 78 points in their 10 non-Divisional games. They similarly outgained their NFC West foes by a healthy margin while being outgained in their other games. But in the Playoffs Arizona has played with great poise and confidence in ousting both Atlanta and Carolina. The task gets tougher against a very experienced Philadelphia team making their fifth Conference Championship game appearance in 8 seasons. There is a veteran nucleus led by QB Donovan McNabb on offense, Brian Dawkins on defenses and coach by Andy Reid. Aside from QB Kurt Warner -- who was a Super Bowl MVP -- Arizona has a roster of limited playoff experience other than the past two weeks. Both teams ranked in the top ten offensively during the regular season but the Eagles had a huge edge defensively, allowing 57 yards per game less than the Cardinals while playing a tougher schedule. Arizona has the more potent pass offense while Philly's edge in the ground game is even greater. Arizona had the league's worst rushing offense at 74 yards per game. Philadelphia's defense is well balanced, ranking # 3 against the rush and # 4 against the pass. In the earlier meeting the Eagles intercepted Warner three times. Philly QB McNabb - playing in the aftermath of his benching a few days earlier and media circus it precipitated -- had his best game of the season and that effort triggered their late season run that has many comparing the Eagles of this season to the Giants of last season. And Philly has not disappointed with a pair of road Playoff wins. They have not allowed over 14 points in any of their last 6 games. At the same time Arizona has scored at least 30 points in each of their last 3 games. When it comes to a matchup of offense versus defense the latter usually prevails in the games of great importance. It's been a great season for Arizona and they have much to build upon, even with an aging QB still showing he's got something left in the tank. But now the task gets tougher and it will be hard for the Cards to overcome the experience of the Eagles. As we saw when these teams met on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia matches up very well against Arizona, especially the Eagles' defense against Warner. Arizona's reliance on the passing game against a top notch defense will ultimately prove decisive. The Arizona running game, which fared well in the wins over Atlanta and Carolina, should struggle here. If Arizona is to pull of the upset it will likely be due to their defense maintaining their level of the past two weeks. If Arizona loses it's likely because they are unable to solve the Eagles' defense. Both suggest a lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect. The call is for Philly to win 27-16, making
PHILADELPHIA a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection .
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Sunday, January 18, 2009 - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening Line: Pittsburgh - 6, currently - 5; Opening Total: 34, currently 34
Pittsburgh won both regular season meetings with their long time Division rival but neither came easily. In their first meeting, a Monday nighter in late September, Baltimore led 13-3 at the half in Pittsburgh before the Steelers rallied to take a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter. Baltimore forced overtime with a TD with 4 minutes remaining before Pittsburgh won on a FG 6 minutes into the extra session. The stats were fairly even although Baltimore ran 14 more offensive plays. The rematch was in week 15 and that game was every bit as dramatic as their first meeting. Pittsburgh won 13-9, scoring the game winning TD with 43 seconds remaining on a play that was ruled short of the goal line by the on field officials but was reversed to a TD by the replay officials. Pittsburgh did have a significant yardage edge (311 to 202) while running just 9 more plays. There's reason to believe this game will be just as tightly contested. Both teams have outstanding defenses. The Steelers had the NFL's # 1 defense, allowing just 237 yards per game. The Ravens were #2 (261 ypg). Both defenses were equally as strong against the rush as against the pass. Pittsburgh was #2 vs. the rush and # 3 vs. the pass while Baltimore was #3 vs. the rush and #2 vs. the pass. Baltimore had a much more productive rushing offense (149 vs. 105 ypg). Both offenses were average in avoiding turnovers. Baltimore's defense led the league by forcing 34 turnovers although Pittsburgh was not far behind with 29. Pittsburgh does have the edge at QB with Ben Roethlisberger having already led the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory. But it's hard to find fault with anything Baltimore's rookie QB Joe Flacco has done this season. The Ravens are also led by a rookie head coach, John Harbaugh while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is just in his second season. Let's also remember that Baltimore was 13-3 just two season ago. Their 2007 season was ruined by an unusually high number of key injuries that greatly limited their offense. The defense in 2007 was still among the league's best, including being #2 against the rush. So defensively there has been a continuity of excellence for the Ravens. Pittsburgh's defense has also been excellent going back several seasons so this game figures to be one of field position and field goals rather than big plays and touchdowns. Whatever big plays are made are more likely to be made by the defense. The first two meetings could have gone either way. There is very little difference between these teams who in many ways are mirror images of one another. Pittsburgh does have the edges of more recent Playoff experience on their roster and are playing at home. So the Steelers should be able to get the win. But this shapes up a game in which the points will matter, especially with the line above a FG. Much like last week's game between a pair of similarly constructed teams based on defense, Baltimore and Tennessee, a late FG could well be the difference. The call is for Pittsburgh to win 16-13, making
BALTIMORE a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 1 Star Selection