Newsletters Nov 10th - Nov 17th

SMU 45 - Utep 33—Mustangs are one of C-USA’s most improved teams, as
crafty second-year HC June Jones has SMU in position to earn post-season bid
after Ponies managed only 1 victory in 2008. Enigmatic UTEP good enough to
knock off both Houston & Tulsa at home...but also bad enough to lose on road
at lowly Memphis & Tulane.
(08-UTEP 36-Smu 10...U.24-14 U.44/134 S.20/64 U.21/34/0/410 S.13/36/4/137 U.0 S.2)
(08-UTEP -13 36-10 07-Utep +1' 48-45 (OT) 06-UTEP -12 24-21...SR: SMU 9-7)

*PITTSBURGH 26 - Notre Dame 23—ND has dropped 7 of last 8 vs. number,
while 8-1 Pitt is shooting for its first BCS bowl in four years. However, don’t want
to lay too many points with Panthers, as the Irish are coming off a defeat and
should be motivated by last season’s OT loss to Pitt. Game pits two of the most
efficient QBs in country in Panthers’ Stull and Irish leader Clausen, but ND
losses this season have come by 4, 7 and 2 points. TV-ABC
(08-Pitt 36-N. DAME 33 (OT)...N.20-17 P.47/178 N.39/115 N.23/44/0/271 P.15/30/3/168 P.0 N.0)
(08-Pittsburgh +4' 36-33 (OT)...SR: Notre Dame 44-19-1)

Stanford 27 - SOUTHERN CAL 28—Shrewd Pac-10 observers not
surprised that SC continues to provide poor spread value (no covers last 4, or
7 of last 8 TY), with “O” not getting much help from confused new play-caller
Jeremy Bates and QB Barkley starting to resemble a true frosh (which he is).
Meanwhile, emergence of RS frosh QB Luck & homerun WR/KR Owusu have
given Jim Harbaugh a lot more offensive toys to play with than just slamming RB
Gerhart (off school-record 223 YR vs. Oregon). Note Stanford has covered 4 of
last 5 in series and has won 3 of last 5 SU at Coliseum!
(08-S. Cal 45-STAN. 23...21-21 Sc.43/282 St.41/202 St.14/27/1/165 Sc.11/18/0/136 Sc.1 St.0)
(08-Usc -24 45-23 07-Stan. +40' 24-23 06-Usc -29 42-0...SR: Southern Cal 59-25-3)

Arizona 27 - CALIFORNIA 22—Understandable distractions surrounding RB
Best’s scary injury appeared to impact Cal last week. But with the homerun
dimension that Best provided now unavailable, QB Riley still erratic, and “D”
continuing to disappoint, not sure we want to trust Bear bunch that’s dropped 5
of last 6 vs. line. Arizona QB Foles has proven a quick study in Sonny Dykes’
spread, and Cats control own destiny for first-ever Rose Bowl trip (really!).
(08-ARIZ. 42-Cal. 27...C.18-17 A.41/179 C.23/110 C.25/56/2/315 A.16/27/1/225 A.1 C.0)
(08-ARIZ. +2' 42-27 07-CAL. -14 45-27 06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20...SR: EVEN 13-13-2)

OREGON 45 - Arizona State 20—Properly tethered after last week’s rude
awakening at Palo Alto, expect Oregon to more resemble its pre-Stanford self
at Autzen Stadium, where when last seen the Duck spread was shredding
USC’s stop unit. ASU’s “D” not likely to have any better success stopping
Masoli & Co., and sluggish Sun Devils not likely to stay within earshot,
especially if HC Erickson makes expected switch to 6-8 frosh Osweiler at QB.
(08-Ore. 54-ARIZ. ST. 20...O.25-18 O.43/304 A.32/107 O.21/30/1/233 A.24/45/2/226 O.2 A.1)
(08-Ore. -3' 54-20 07-ORE. -8 35-23 06-Ore. +1' 48-13...SR: Arizona State 16-13)

KANSAS STATE 27 - Missouri 20—Run vs. pass. Bill Snyder’s surprising KState
has covered four straight and leads the Big XII North. Missouri boasts a
dangerous passing game (QB Gabbert 468 YP last week). But the Tiger
defense (31.6 ppg in Big XII) often vulnerable. Wildcat RB Daniel Thomas now
has 1087 YR, and KSU defense has 12 takeaways its last four games. Wildcats
3-0 vs. spread at home TY.
(08-MISSOURI 41-Kan. St. 24...M.27-17 M.39/221 K.33/194 M.26/40/2/290 K.22/42/1/169 M.0 K.1)
(08-MO. -26' 41-24 07-Mo. -7 49-32 06-MO. -15 41-21...SR: Missouri 58-31-5)

*OKLAHOMA 40 - Texas A&M 27—The deficiencies of both teams were
exploited last week, as Oklahoma’s RS frosh QB Jones suffered five
interceptions and RS frosh PK Way missed three FGs, while A&M’s young
defense gave up 35 points to lose in the closing minutes. Aggie defense will be
pierced again. But Mike Sherman’s maturing offense (35.6 ppg) versatile
enough to keep A&M within reach.
(08-Okla. 66-TEX. A&M 28...O.29-20 O.38/328 T.29/26 O.23/36/0/325 T.22/51/2/252 O.0 T.2)
(08-Okla. -27 66-28 07-OKLA. -21 42-14 06-Okla. -2' 17-16...SR: Oklahoma 17-10)

San Jose State 24 - UTAH STATE 23—We can excuse San Jose for treating
trip to Logan as if it were a date with Scarlett Johansson after a steady diet of
bowl-bound opposition. Against its own level of competition, expect Spartan
“O” and strong-armed QB La Secla to finally find some traction. Most of Utags’
recent pointspread success has come as dog, and Aggie “D” bullet-riddled after
allowing 697 yards at Hawaii.
(08-S. JOSE ST. 30-Utah St. 7...S.18-10 S.29/87 U.34/71 S.31/47/1/314 U.13/30/2/119 S.0 U.0)
(08-SJS -13 30-7 07-Sjs +3 23-20 06-SJS -16 21-14...SR: San Jose State 20-10-1)

NEVADA 46 - Fresno State 32—Acknowledge FSU’s new-found prowess on
road (5-0 vs. line away TY!), and note Bulldogs’ only losses are vs. bowl-bound
Cincy, Boise, & Wisconsin. But Nevada reliable as home chalk under Chris Ault
(18-4 since ‘04), and Wolf Pack Pistol (leading nation in rushing) often running
downhill, as it did LY at Fresno. Ground-oriented Bulldogs and nation’s leading
rusher Ryan Mathews not constructed to exploit Nevada’s pass “D” shortcomings.
(08-Nevada 41-FRES. ST. 28...N.29-21 N.61/472 F.16/106 F.23/43/2/260 N.7/17/0/128 N.0 F.2)
(08-Nevada +1 41-28 07-Fsu +3 49-41 06-FSU -12' 28-19...SR: Fresno State 24-14-1)

RICE 37 - Tulane 30—Best chance remaining for winless Rice to get a victory,
especially with Tulane celebrating rare triumph of its own. Owl offense closer
to potent attacks of recent seasons now that QB Fanuzzi (‘Bama transfer; 3
TDP at SMU) healthy.
(08-Rice 42-TULANE 17...R.22-20 R.34/230 T.27/34 T.24/43/2/340 R.20/25/1/168 R.0 T.1)
(08-Rice +2 42-17 07-Tulane +2' 45-31 06-TULANE +2' 38-24...SR: Rice 16-14-1)

AIR FORCE 34 - UNLV 9—Potentially-troubling fundamentals for UNLV and its
shotgun spread that was rendered helpless in recent trip to TCU. Similar
problems could arise vs. hungry AFA stop unit with its creating scheming and
high national stat rankings (7th overall, 9th in scoring; Falcs also +18 TO margin).
Rebs not known to bring their “A” game on road (6-18 vs. line last 18 away).
(08-A. Force 29-UNLV 28...A.26-22 A.68/346 U.35/153 U.19/30/0/251 A.6/7/0/162 A.0 U.0)
(08-Afa -4 29-28 07-AFA -5' 31-14 06-UNLV +10' 42-39...SR: Air Force 10-4)

OREGON STATE 36 - Washington 20—Although U-Dub usually within
earshot, the disturbing ways Huskies have found to lose could begin to take
emotional toll, especially with bowl hopes quickly disappearing. Moreover,
Jake Locker’s bruised thigh limiting his mobility and removing a once-important
dimension from his repertoire. UW “D” has been springing leaks, and Mike
Riley has won and covered last 5 in series.
(08-Ore. St. 34-WASH. 13...O.19-16 O.35/230 W.28/101 W.17/32/3/276 O.18/22/0/191 O.0 W.1)
(08-Osu -15' 34-13 07-OSU -4' 29-23 06-Osu +9 27-17...SR: Washington 57-32-4)

Florida 26 - SOUTH CAROLINA 16—With UF attack still lacking “big play
production,” according to HC Urban Meyer, interested in taking hefty number
with bowl-eligible USC, seeking respect following humiliating 56-6 smashing in
“The Swamp” LY. ‘Cocks have red zone issues as well, but mistake-free QB
Garcia (only 6 ints. in 334 attempts) effectively spreading ball around (9
different receivers vs. Ark.). Host is 3-1 as a rare DD home dog since ‘99, and
Gators have failed to cover 3 straight laying more than 15 pts. TY. TV-CBS
(08-FLA. 56-S. Car. 6...F.20-11 F.41/346 S.25/53 F.13/22/0/173 S.19/37/3/120 F.2 S.1)
(08-FLA. -21' 56-6 07-Fla. -7 51-31 06-FLA. -13 17-16...SR: Florida 22-4-3)

*Alabama 27 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10—Although Bama coming off
draining, SEC West-clinching 24-15 victory vs. LSU, still support defensivelystifling
Tide (12 ppg), 8-3 vs. spread last 11 vs. SEC foes. MSU’s primary
weapon RB Dixon (1001 YR) will be stymied by Bama’s ferocious front 7 (2ndranked
nationally; 2.2 ypc, 69 ypg). Nick Saban’s deep, well-conditioned squad
outscoring foes 75-21 in 4th Q. TV-ESPN
(08-ALA. 32-Miss. St. 7...A.17-9 A.48/198 M.22/35 A.12/19/0/166 M.11/28/0/132 A.0 M.1)
(08-ALA. -21' 32-7 07-MSU +4 17-12 06-Msu +14' 24-16...SR: Alabama 72-18-3)

*MARSHALL 27 - Southern Miss 24—Take any points available with
resurgent Marshall squad that had extra week to get over bummer of blowing
20-7 fourth-quarter lead in loss at UCF. Workhorse jr. RB D. Marshall (129 ypg
rushing—5th in nation) will keep chains moving and stingy Herd stoppers (just
16 ppg last 7!) fresh.
(08-Mar. 34-S. MISS 27...S.23-22 M.42/201 S.31/123 S.27/49/1/308 M.16/25/0/228 M.1 S.0)
(08-Mar. +8 34-27 07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7...SR: Southern Miss 3-1)

*Miami-Florida 28 - NORTH CAROLINA 20—Teacher vs. pupil, and Carolina
boss Butch Davis has bested Miami’s Randy Shannon, his former assistant, in
each of first 2 meetings. Hurricanes’ offense a lot more dynamic than choppy
Tar Heel attack, although Davis has lots of speed on defense, as well as 8
covers in his last 11 as dog.
(08-N. Car. 28-MIAMI 24...M.18-16 M.33/135 N.33/35 N.13/24/0/264 M.22/33/2/174 N.0 M.0)
(08-Unc +7' 28-24 07-UNC +7 33-27 06-MIAMI -19 27-7...SR: North Carolina 7-5)

*OKLAHOMA STATE 28 - Texas Tech 20—OSU QB Zac Robinson holds
nice experience edge at QB, and Kendall Hunter (9 for 47 rushing) finally again
had an impact last week at Iowa State. Tech getting improved running TY from
Baron Batch (531 YR), but Red Raider OL and QBing often inconsistent.
Cowboys can avenge LY’s blowout at Lubbock if they neutralize Red Raider
“sack man” sr. DE Brandon Sharpe (10½ in nine games).
(08-TX. TECH 56-Okla. St. 20...T.38-19 O.34/186 T.25/113 T.45/55/0/516 O.16/29/1/182 T.2 O.1)
(08-TECH -3' 56-20 07-OSU +6 49-45 06-TECH -6 30-24...SR: Texas Tech 21-12-3)

*TCU 28 - Utah 16—In this huge MWC showdown for 1st place, would consider
taking points with dangerous, well-schooled Utah, a perfect 9-0 as TD-or-more
underdog since ‘99. Don’t see TCU exploding against a veteran, sure-tackling
Utah stop unit allowing more than 17 pts. just twice over last 16 games (“held”
Oregon to 31, its lowest output in Eugene TY). If Utes’ poised frosh QB Wynn
plays within himself, Whittingham’s confident crew makes it tough for hot host
to avenge 3 straight series losses.
(08-UTAH 13-Tcu 10...T.20-17 T.39/165 U.25/45 T.16/37/2/251 U.24/41/0/230 U.0 T.0)
(08-UTAH +2 13-10 07-Utah +3' 27-20 06-UTAH -2 20-7...SR: Utah 5-1)

*Auburn 31 - GEORGIA 27—Favor triple-revenge-minded Auburn, playing
inspired ball for seriously injured CB Etheridge. Tiger QB Todd (17 TDP, just 3
ints.) steadier than Dawg pilot Cox (12 ints.), and AU owns superior rush
component, featuring punishing RB Tate (1041 YR, 5.5 ypc). UGA’s defense
not forcing miscues (only 6 takeaways in 9 games!), and HC Richt just 1-7 vs.
spread last 8 in Athens (0-3 TY). TV-ESPN
(08-Georgia 17-AUB. 13...G.20-19 G.33/136 A.36/124 G.15/24/0/215 A.16/31/0/179 G.1 A.1)
(08-Georgia -9 17-13 07-GEORGIA -2 45-20 06-Georgia +12 37-15...SR: Auburn 53-51-8)

Houston 36 - UCF 34—Knights’ backup QB Calabrese “took one for the
team” at Texas (a beating, that is), giving top triggerman Hodges time to rest
sore elbow. Wouldn’t bet against UH QB Keenum (1081 YP & 8 TDP last 2
weeks!) to win game, but four of defense-shy Cougs’ last six victories have
come by 7 points or fewer.
(06-HOUSTON -17 51-31...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*LSU 42 - Louisiana Tech 10—Though LSU suffered several key injuries in
28-15 loss at Alabama (see Special Ticker), believe Tigers possess the
requisite depth at QB and RB to extend margin vs. overmatched La Tech squad
just 5-17-1 vs. spread last 23 away (1-4 TY). Whether it’s Jefferson or Lee at the
helm for LSU, prime-time WRs LaFell & Tolliver should run circles around
Bulldog secondary allowing 671 YP last 2 games. TV-ESPN2
(07-LSU -36 58-10...SR: LSU 17-1)

*Wyoming 23 - SAN DIEGO ST. 20—Despite last week’s disastrous results
involving these two, there are still postseason implications involved with this
clash (who says the bowl schedule hasn’t become too bloated?). Measured
vote for Wyo bunch that had covered 5 straight before BYU debacle & whose
capable “D” unlikely to get exposed by still-evolving SDSU QB Lindley as it was
by Cougs’ vet QB Hall last week.
(08-WYO. 35-S.D. St. 10...W.22-19 W.59/378 S.19/17 S.28/52/0/311 W.6/10/0/166 W.0 S.1)
(08-WYO. -5' 35-10 07-SDS +4 27-24 06-WYO. -15 27-24...SR: Wyoming 16-14)

*HAWAII 45 - New Mexico State 17—Has Colt Brennan re-emerged in
Honolulu? No, but Hawaii Red Gun has apparently reloaded behind lively
backup QB Moniz, who paced near-700 yard onslaught in last week’s romp past
Utah State. Meanwhile, bye week not likely to solve than many ills of DeWayne
Walker’s neanderthal NMSU “O” (233 ypg & 11.8 ppg..both last in nation!).
(08-Hawaii 42-N.M. ST. 30...H.24-15 H.37/144 N.21/6 N.24/38/2/394 H.27/35/0/303 H.3 N.1)
(08-Hawaii -3' 42-30 07-HAWAII -29' 50-13 06-Hawaii -19 49-30...SR: Hawaii 5-0)

ADDED GAMES

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28 - Arkansas State 22—Safe to say we won’t see Lee
Corso and the ESPN GameDay crew outside Lockhart Stadium for these
disappointing Belt entries. FAU now operating minus sr. QB Rusty Smith, but
ASU situation looks more toxic after QB Leonard was benched in loss vs. ULL
and rumors about HC Roberts’ job status circulate in Jonesboro.
(08-ARK. ST. 28-Fau 14...A.22-15 A.42/203 F.23/63 A.20/28/1/279 F.16/38/1/196 A.0 F.1)
(08-ASU -4 28-14 07-FAU -6' 34-31 06-FAU +6 29-0...SR: Arkansas State 3-2)

LA.-MONROE 47 - Western Kentucky 19—WKU (trailed Troy by just 1 at half
after tallying 49 vs. UNT the previous week) going down swinging these
days...but going down nonetheless (now 17 losses in a row...ouch!). ULM attack
again in good hands now that QB Revell back in action, and bottom-ranked
Hilltopper “D” (514 ypg) likely strafed once more.
(DNP...SR: Western Kentucky 3-1)

*ARKANSAS 34 - Troy 27—U of A’s strong-armed passer Mallett is en fuego,
but believe tough-minded, athletic Troy able to trade much of the way, with
prolific, accurate QB Levi Brown (65%, 2804 YP) effectively operating against a
vulnerable Hog 2ndary (ranked last in SEC). Remember, undaunted, roadtested
Trojans have covered at LSU (led 31-10 in 4th LY!), Ohio State, Georgia
& here at Fayetteville last 2+Ys. (07-ARKANSAS -23' 46-26...SR: Arkansas 2-0)

*FLORIDA INTL. 34 - North Texas 27—North Texas scored 9 TDs and 68
points two weeks ago vs. Western Kentucky and then only six points in last
week’s home loss vs. La.-Monroe. FIU has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.
(08-Fiu 42-N. TEX. 10...N.22-13 N.33/119 F.39/110 N.35/50/3/309 F.12/20/0/237 F.0 N.1)
(08-Fiu -6 42-10 07-FIU +2' 38-19 06-UNT +1' 25-22 (OT)...SR: EVEN 2-2)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 38 - La.-Lafayette 17—As long as MTSU
continues to provide good value as chalk (covered last 5), don’t mind laying
points with potent Blue Raiders, whose spread offense now doing significant
damage on ground (QB Dasher & RB Kyles both over 100 YR the past two
weeks). MTSU on course for 7 or 8 wins and enhanced chances in bowl queue!
(08-LA.-LAF. 42-Mtsu 28...M.26-23 M.40/167 L.43/152 L.18/25/0/243 M.22/29/1/242 L.0 M.2)
(08-ULL -5 42-28 07-Ull +14 34-24 06-Mts +2' 34-20...SR: La.-Lafayette 6-4)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15

*East Carolina 30 - TULSA 29—Campaign has quickly turned pear-shaped for
Tulsa, which plunged below .500 with bitter one-point home loss to rival
Houston, the not-so-Golden Hurricane’s fourth straight setback. Pirate defense
stout enough to vitiate host’s offensive edge, and ECU 15-6 as road dog under
HC Skip Holtz. TV-ESPN
(08-E. Car. 27-TULSA 24...T.28-14 T.55/204 E.35/156 T.23/42/5/195 E.10/24/0/122 E.1 T.2)
(08-Ecu +12' 27-24 06-Tulsa -2' 31-10...SR: Tulsa 5-3)
(08-E. Car. 27-TULSA 24...T.28-14 T.55/204 E.35/156 T.23/42/5/195 E.10/24/0/122 E.1 T.2)
(08-Ecu +12' 27-24 06-Tulsa -2' 31-10...SR: Tulsa 5-3)

NFL KEY RELEASES

CAROLINA by 9 over Atlanta
MIAMI by 21 over Tampa Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Seattle-Arizona game

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12

*SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Chicago 17—Special game for Mike Singletary,
who spent his entire HOF playing career with ‘Da Bears. Not to mention that his
49ers could use a win after 4 straight defeats has them in danger of losing
contact with NFC West leader Arizona. Thus, Chicago arriving at the ‘Stick at
just the right time, as the Bears’ numerous shortcomings (OL problems, stillsuspect
WR corps, shaky secondary, mounting defensive injuries) proving too
much for the overburdened Jay Cutler to overcome. Meanwhile, for S.F., RB Frank
Gore is healthy, TE Vernon Davis is bidding for the Pro Bowl, and rookie WR
Michael Crabtree now has three games under his belt. TV—NFL NETWORK
(06-CHICAGO -16 41-10...SR: San Francisco 30-29-1)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15

NY JETS 27 - Jacksonville 13—A week off might be just what the Jets
needed after dropping 4 of last 5. Despite the slump, they’re still in the playoff
mix. And now that Jerricho Cotchery (back from hamstring woes) and Braylon
Edwards finally teamed up effectively at WR in last game vs. Dolphins, Mark
Sanchez (get used to the Meadowlands winds, rookie!) has quality downfield
targets vs. the depth-shy Jacksonville secondary, not to mention time to throw
vs. the non-existent Jag pass rush. Rex Ryan’s defense is well-constructed to
limit the damage of Jags’ offensive focal point, Maurice Jones-Drew.
(06-JACKSONVILLE -6' 41-0...SR: Jacksonville 5-3)

Denver 22 - WASHINGTON 10—Washington attack (“exploding” for 17
points each of last two games!) displaying a pulse, but the overall vital signs still
not good for the sinking Skins, who have dropped 6 of last 7 vs. line and 9 of last
10 vs. number in front of FedEx Field boo-birds. The makeshift OL is
endangering the health of QB Jason Campbell (sacked 5 times in first H last
week at Atlanta; now 28 sacks TY), and former Bronc Clinton Portis was KO’d by
a concussion last week. Denver defense got wiser with the addition of CB Ty Law
last week. Broncos “under” 14-5 last 19 prior to Steelers; Jim Zorn “under” 17-6-1.
(05-DENVER -7 21-19...SR: Denver 6-5)

Cincinnati 25 - PITTSBURGH 23—Everything looking up in Cincy, where
even Chad Ochocinco’s reality TV shenanigans are tolerated these days. And
the Bengals (already 3-0 SU vs. Ravens & Steelers) can establish themselves
as the clear team to beat in the AFC North with another win over Pittsburgh.
Roles reversed in this series, with Cincy now more likely to do business on the
ground (league-leader Cedric Benson broke 100 YR again vs. stout Baltimore
defense last week) and the Steelers throwing more often (58% of their offensive
plays) than they have since Dick Shiner and Kent Nix were taking snaps at old
Pitt Stadium in 1968. Big Ben ticking (70%), but taking a licking (20 sacks prior
to Denver Nov. 9).
(09-CINCY 23-Pitt 20...C.19-17 P.28/102 C.19/100 P.22/31/1/271 C.20/37/0/173 C.0 P.0)
(08-Pitt 38-CINCY 10...P.20-16 P.27/125 C.22/84 P.20/31/0/250 C.24/39/0/128 P.0 C.1)
(08-PITT 27-Cincy 10...P.20-11 P.37/121 C.20/43 P.17/30/0/243 C.20/37/1/165 P.1 D.0)
(09-CINCY +3' 23-20; 08-Pitt -9 38-10, PITT -11 27-10...SR: Pittsburgh 48-31)

Buffalo 20 - TENNESSEE 17—We don’t have to tell Chris Johnson’s fantasy
coaches to make sure he’s in the lineup vs. Buffalo, which is allowing 5.1 ypc.
And maybe Bud Adams knew what he was doing, as Tennessee has indeed
displayed more spark in two straight wins since Vince Young re-assumed
command. But still dubious about laying points with Titans, especially with
Buffalo healthier after needed bye week (QB Trent Edwards, S Donte Whitner,
who’s very good in run support, and DT Kyle Williams all likely to return). The
Bills’ big-play defense (rookie sensation S Jairus Byrd has 7 picks!) might have
some fun if V.Y. forced to the air.
(2009 Preseason: Tennessee -3 beat Buffalo 21-18 at Canton, Ohio)
(06-Tennessee +5 30-29...SR: Tennessee 25-16)

MINNESOTA 37 - Detroit 16—Bye home favorites sometimes take a while
to get back in gear at this time of the season, but Bret Favre’s 40-year-old body
likely welcomed the respite. So did RB Adrian Peterson (784 YR). Plus, it’s
worth noting that all of Detroit’s young triplets (QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kevin
Smith, and WR Calvin Johnson) have been unable to avoid injury TY. Vikes’
coaches seeking more ways to get dynamic Percy Harvin more involved in the
offense. Minny’s 4-8 mark last 12 as a home chalk mitigated by Lions’ no
covers first 4 away TY. Detroit 13-3 “over” on road.
(09-Minn. 27-DET. 13...M.18-17 D.34/129 M.25/112 M.24/28/0/153 D.18/30/2/136 M.1 D.1)
(08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)
(08-Minn. 20-DET. 16...M.20-15 M.32/130 D.27/76 D.14/24/0/191 M.15/20/2/168 M.0 D.0)
(09-Minn. -10 27-13; 08-MINN. -13 12-10, Minn. -10 20-16...SR: Minnesota 64-30-2)

New Orleans 34 - ST. LOUIS 10—NFL’s highest-scoring team (N.O. 38 ppg)
meets its lowest (St. Louis 9.6). Saints 3-0 vs. the spread on the road, while the
Rams are 0-3 vs. the spread at home. St. Louis HC Steve Spagnuolo says he
is sticking with Marc Bulger (only 3 TDP this season) at QB. For some strange
reason, N.O. coach Sean Payton says he is sticking with Drew Brees. Rams (6-
34 SU the last 2+Ys) are 10-4 “over” their last 14 at home; Saints 20-9 “over” last
29 overall.
(07-St. Louis +10' 37-29...SR: St. Louis 38-30)

CAROLINA 23 - Atlanta 14—Panthers were fairly competitive in the
first meeting, rushing for 144 yards, outgaining the Falcs 440 to 371, and
threatening late. And Carolina much more competitive since its 0-3 start,
rushing for 270 & 182 yards its last two games, and since holding all foes except
one (New Orleans) to 21 points or fewer. Panther offense gets a chance to
exploit some injury attrition on the Falcons’ defense. Will side this time with
DeAngelo Williams’ speed over Michael Turner’s power. Carolina 9-4 “under”
last 13 at home.
(09-ATL. 28-Car. 20...C.24-23 A.37/151 C.25/144 C.25/41/1/296 A.21/27/1/220 A.1 C.1)
(08-CAR. 24-Atl. 9...C.19-17 A.23/118 C.32/111 C.20/29/0/294 A.21/41/0/150 C.0 A.0)
(08-ATL. 45-Car. 28...C.22-21 C.26/134 A.33/133 C.21/35/0/274 A.17/27/0/259 A.1 C.0)
(09-ATLANTA -6 28-20; 08-CAROLINA -7 24-9, ATLANTA -1 45-28...SR: Atlanta 18-11)

MIAMI 37 - Tampa Bay 16—With Tampa Bay rookie Josh Freeman (3
TDP in starting debut vs. G.B.) making his first start on the road, second-year
Miami QB Chad Henne is a comparative grisled veteran in the ways of the NFL.
Backed by solid coaching and the Dolphins’ powerful, retro single-wing ground
game, Henne is much less likely of the two to make rash decisions. Dolphins
using rookie CBs. But insiders point out Bucs’ young corners Aqib Talib (5 ints.)
& Elbert Mack have been susceptible to long gainers. Miami, tallying 32 ppg at
LandShark Stadium, “over” in all 4 home games TY.
(2009 Preseason: Miami +2 beat Tampa Bay 10-6 at Tampa Bay)
(05-TAMPA BAY -4 27-13...SR: EVEN 4-4)

Kansas City 19 - OAKLAND 16—Oakland escaped in Week Two with a late
TD, giving the road team a 12-0-1 pointspread mark last 13 in this series!
Raiders expect to get RB Darren McFadden, WR Chaz Schilens, and LG Robert
Gallery back for this game. But be careful, as the “Commitment to Excellence”
boys are 0-10 last 10 when favored! Chiefs finally had some functional WRs
last week, as the obscure Lance Long had 8 recs. & former Charger Chris
Chambers had two TDC. “Unders” also 8-1 last 9 in series.
(09-Oak. 13-K. CITY 10...K.25-11 K.38/173 O.25/67 K.24/39/2/236 O.7/24/0/99 O.0 K.0)
(08-Oak. 23-K. CITY 8...O.18-15 O.47/300 K.19/55 K.17/38/2/135 O.6/17/0/55 O.2 K.0)
(08-K. City 20-OAK. 13...K.17-14 K.37/145 O.29/139 K.15/22/1/156 O.10/28/0/132 K.0 O.2)
(09-Oakland +2' 13-10; 08-Oakland +3' 23-8, K. City +3 20-13...SR: Kansas City 53-46-2)

OVER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 30 - Seattle 27—In first meeting, host
Seattle gave up a 15-play TD drive to open the game, then geeked the kickoff
return at its own 23, going down 14-0 before even running a play! Sore-ribbed
Matt Hasselbeck absorbed five sacks, and the Seahawks absorbed a sound
whuppin’. Now, however, Seattle’s injury situation—while still a problem—is
improved, especially on defense, with youngsters Hawthorne & Curry
stabilizing the LB situation and frequent Pro Bowler Marcus Trufant back to
contribute in the secondary. Last five in series “over;” Seahawks “over” 9 of last
13 away.
(09-Ariz. 27-SEA. 3...A.21-7 A.26/62 S.11/14 A.34/43/1/282 S.11/30/1/114 A.1 S.1)
(08-Ariz. 26-SEA. 20...A.24-18 A.24/76 S.22/43 A.32/44/1/382 S.17/29/3/153 A.2 S.1)
(08-ARIZ. 34-Sea. 21...S.24-19 A.19/111 S.28/87 A.24/38/1/346 S.24/43/2/243 A.1 S.1)
(09-Arizona +3 27-3; 08-Arizona -3 26-20, ARIZONA -6' 34-21...SR: Arizona 12-9)

Philadelphia 27 - SAN DIEGO 23—Philly did not play well last week in its 20-
16 loss to Dallas. But Eagles got few breaks from the officials in that one, and
QB Donovan McNabb was not alert from the start, as he was just the previous
week against the Giants. Moreover, the injury-necessitated shuffling of the
Eagle OL continued. However, Andy Reid is a notable 10-2 his last 12 as a road
dog. And even Philly runs better than the nearly one-dimensional Chargers.
Quick-strike young playmakers such as WRs DeSean Jackson & Jeremy
Maclin and RB Shady McCoy have the potential for big plays vs. the erratic S.D.
pass coverage. (05-PHILADELPHIA -3' 20-17...SR: San Diego 5-4)

Dallas 28 - GREEN BAY 23—G.B. started veteran OTs Chad Clifton & Mark
Tauscher last week at T.B., but they couldn’t stem the tide of sacks on Aaron
Rodgers (6 more brings the Packers’ total to an unacceptable 37 in 8 games).
Meanwhile, Dallas’ pass rush improving in recent games, as is Tony Romo’s
decision making. And the Cowboy own the deeper, more effective ground
game. Packers 12-5 “over” last 17 at home.
(08-Dal. 27-G. BAY 16...D.22-17 D.35/217 G.21/84 G.22/39/0/250 D.17/31/1/236 D.1 G.1)
(08-Dallas -3 27-16...SR: Dallas 16-12)

*New England 23 - INDIANAPOLIS 20—Practically Perfect Petyon has won
& covered four of the last five meetings vs. former nemesis N.E., including LY’s
narrow victory when Matt Cassel was at the controls of the Pats. But the Colts
face a much bigger challenge TY, with S Bob Sanders, CBs Marlin Jackson &
Kelvin Hayden, and LB Tyjuan Hagler all out, while Tom Terrific is back to QB
New England. Yes, Indy has won 17 straight in the regular season, and the
Pats’ defense is rebuilding. But proud N.E. is 5-2 as a dog the L3+Ys. TV—NBC
(08-INDY 18-N. Eng. 15...N.22-18 N.32/140 I.21/47 I.21/29/0/254 N.26/35/1/202 I.0 N.1)
(08-INDIANAPOLIS -6 18-15...SR: New England 44-28)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

*Baltimore 29 - CLEVELAND 9—Cleveland is looking for some good news
after scoring only five offensive TDs in the first half of the season, then seeing
fired GM George Kokinis escorted from the premises, and later hearing RB
Jamal Lewis 349 YR, 3.6 ypc) announce he is retiring at the end of the season.
Said HC Eric Mangini at one point, “This is a process.” Doubt that seeing his QBs
collect 3 TD passes vs. 12 ints. in half a season was part of the process the onetime
“Man-genius” had in mind. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh’s rugged Ravens
are 10-3 when favored. CABLE TV—ESPN
(09-BALT. 34-Cle. 3...B.28-11 B.28/142 C.23/71 B.26/37/0/337 C.17/27/4/115 B.1 C.0)
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(08-Balt. 37-CLE. 27...B.21-14 B.41/193 C.23/64 B.17/29/0/236 C.17/33/1/210 B.0 C.1)
(09-BALT. -13' 34-3; 08-BALT. -2' 28-10, Balt. +1' 37-27...SR: Baltimore 14-7)

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER COLLEGE

BOWLING GREEN at MIAMI-OHIO (Thursday, November
12)...RedHawks have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Miami-O has also
dominated this series, winning and covering last 3 and 8 off last 9
meetings. Though BGSU 13-2 vs. number last 15 as visitor (3-2
TY). Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, based on series trends.

BALL STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Thursday, November
12)...NIU has won and covered last 3 as Dekalb chalk after
underachieving previously in role. Tech edge-slight to NIU,
based on recent trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at RUTGERS (Thursday, November
12)...Bulls 8-4 as dog since ‘06 (2-2 TY) but have lost 3 straight vs.
Rutgers (no covers last 2). Schiano no covers first three as host
TY. Tech edge-slight to USF, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at AKRON (Friday, November 13)...Al “Touch of”
Golden has covered first 4 on road TY and is 14-5 vs. spread last
19 on board. Akron on 3-9 spread run since late ‘08. Tech edge-
Temple, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at CINCINNATI (Friday, November 13)...Brian
Kelly has covered the last 2 vs. WVU as a dog. Bill Stewart 6-14 vs.
number since LY. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA...Cavs just 2-5 vs. line last 7 at
home. Groh 1-1 as home dog TY and 7-4 in role since ‘06. Spaziani
has covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in ‘09 but broke that road slump in
ND cover. Tech edge-slight to BC, based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN at ILLINOIS...Cats have covered 3 of last 4
and 7 of last 9 vs. Illini. NU 6-1 vs line last 6 on Big Ten road. Tech
edge-NU, based on series trends.

SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE...UL has covered his last 2 as host
TY but is 2-5 as Papa John’s chalk since ‘07. Marrone 1-4 vs. line
last 5 TY. Tech edge-slight to UL, based on ‘Cuse negatives.

IOWA at OHIO STATE...Hawkeyes 4-0 vs. line away TY (3-0 as
road dog). Note Ferentz just 1-4 vs. line in career vs. Buckeyes.
Tressel has covered his last 5 at Big Horseshoe after dropping 8 of
previous 9 vs. number at home. Tech edge-Iowa, based on
team trends.

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN...Rodriguez fading, just 1-5 vs. line
last 6 TY. Home team is 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 in series. Rodriguez 2-
6 vs. line as visitor since LY. Tech edge-Wisconsin, based on
team trends.

INDIANA at PENN STATE...IU 3-3 vs. line last 5 TY after covering
first 3 on board TY. IU has covered last 2 vs. Shades. Tech edgeslight
to IU, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at PURDUE... MSU 4-1 as road chalk since LY
91-1 TY). Purdue erratic TY but is 2-0 as home dog for Danny Hope.
Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at WAKE FOREST...Grobe has been punishing
Bowden lately, winning and covering last 3 as well as covers in last
5 meetings. Tech edge-Wake, based on series trends.

CLEMSON at NC STATE...Pack 1-2 vs. line first 3 on board at
Raleigh TY and have to win out to get bowl-eligible (two wins vs.
FCS). O’Brien 6-1 last 7 as home dog, however. Tech edge-NCS,
based on O’Brien home dog mark.

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE...Tech has punished Duke lately,
winning and covering last 4 meetings. Paul Johnson has won and
covered 6 of last 7 TY. Tech edge-GT, based on team and
series trends.

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT...UK had covered 4 straight and 6
of 7 vs. Vandy prior to losing at home vs. Dores LY. Cats 3-0 vs.
line away from Lexington TY and have covered 4 straight away
from home, also 3-0 as chalk away from home since ‘06. Bobby
Johnson no covers last 7 as host since mid ‘08. Tech edge-UK,
based on extended series and team trends.

TEXAS at BAYLOR...Baylor has actually covered last 2 vs. Mack
after Horns had covered 5 of previous 6. Mack, however, hasn’t
won by less than 21 in five tries at Waco since assuming command
of Horns in ‘98 (with a pair of 62-0 wins included). Art Briles only 1-
3 vs. line at home TY. Tech edge-Texas, based on extended
series and team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at MARYLAND...Beamer has won and covered
last 3 vs. Ralph although teams didn’t meet in ‘06-07. Beamer 24-11
vs. line away since ‘04. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team
and series trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...WMU 1-7 vs.
line last 7 away, 2-9 last 11 on board. EMU 1-7 vs. line last 8 at
home. Tech edge-slight to WMU, based on EMU negatives.

TENNESSEE at OLE MISS...Rebs 2-1 vs. line at home TY, 10-4
vs. spread last 14 at Oxford. Lane Kiffin has covered last 4 on
board TY and is 2-0 as dog. Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on
team trends.

BYU at NEW MEXICO...Locksley 0-4 vs. line at home TY. Note
road team has covered last 7 in this series. Tech edge-BYU,
based on series and team trends.

NEBRASKA at KANSAS...Not like the old sacrifices of the
Jayhawk at the altar of Husker as in the Osborne days, indeed KU
has covered 4 of last 5 meetings and has destroyed NU in last two
at Lawrence (combined 110-54 score). Tech edge-KU, based
on series trends.

UAB at MEMPHIS...UAB a rather amazing 7-0-2 vs. line last 9
meetings! Tech edge-UAB, based on series trends.
COLORADO at IOWA STATE...Cyclones have covered 4 of last
5 in series. Dan Hawkins 8-15 vs. line away from home since ‘06.
Tech edge-ISU, based on series trends and CU road woes.

UCLA at WASHINGTON STATE...WSU actually 9-4 vs. line last
13 on board in a stunning display of backdoor ability. Tech edge-
WSU, based on team trends.

IDAHO at BOISE STATE...Rugged Vandals had covered first 7
on board TY before dropping last 3 vs. number. Home team,
however, has covered last 4 in this heated rivalry. Boise 3-0 vs.
line on blue carpet TY and 9-3-1 vs. spread last 13 as host. Tech
edge-slight to Boise, based on series and team trends.

UTEP at SMU...UTEP has won and covered last 2 and Mike Price
has won last 4 SU in series. June Jones 0-3 vs. line as chalk since
LY. Tech edge-UTEP, based on team and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at PITT...Note that dog team has covered in ND’s
last 8 games TY, with Irish as chalk in seven of those (ND 1-7 vs.
number last 8 TY). But Weis only 4-8 last 12 as road dog. ‘Stache
6-1 last 7 as chalk. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.

STANFORD at SOUTHERN CAL...Harbaugh has covered last 2
vs. SC and Tree has covered 4 of last 5 vs. Carroll and 4 of last 5
at Coliseum. Tree also has covered 7 of last 10 in series. Pete just
2-7 vs. spread TY and 3-10 vs. number last 13 reg.-season games.
Tech edge-Tree, based on series and team trends.

ARIZONA at CAL...Home team has covered last 4 in series and
Tedford is 3-0 SU and vs. line as host vs. UA. Stoops 1-2 vs. line
away TY and 3-6 last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based
on series home trend.

ARIZONA STATE at OREGON...UO has won and covered last 4
meetings, all by DD margins. Erickson 4-7 vs. line last 11 away.
Tech edge-Oregon, based on series trends.

MISSOURI at KANSAS STATE...Snyder 3-0 vs. line at home TY
and Cats have covered last 4 since Texas Tech wipeout. Tech
edge-KSU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at OKLAHOMA...Sooners only 1-2 vs. line at home
TY after 15-5 spread mark previous 20 at Norman. Ags have only
covered 1 of last 6 away from College Station. Tech edge-slight
to OU, based on extended trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UTAH STATE...SJSU 1-5 vs. line TY, now
1–10 last 11 on board, Utags 10-2-1 vs. number last 13 on board.
Spartans have, however, won 4 straight in series Tech edgeslight
to SJSU, based on series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Chris Ault 18-4 vs. line as home
chalk since ‘04 (3-1 TY). Pat Hill 5-0 vs. line away TY. Tech edgeslight
to Nevada, based on team and recent series trends.

TULANE at RICE...If Tulane chalk note 1-5 spread mark in role
since ‘07 for Bob Toledo (0-0 TY). Rice 0-3 vs. spread as host TY.
Tech edge-slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

UNLV at AIR FORCE...Home team has covered the last 4 in
series, and Falcs have won and covered last 3 hosting Rebs, all by
17 or more. Calhoun 11-4 vs. line as chalk. Sanford 6-18 vs.
number last 24 away. Tech edge-AFA, based on team and
series home trends.

WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE...OSU has won and covered
last 5 in series. Mike Riley 20-9 last 29 on board. Tech edge-OSU,
based on series trends.

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA... After scaring Urban Meyer to
death and even beating him in ‘05 (also covering in ‘06), Spurrier
has lost and failed to cover in a big way the last two vs. alma mater.
Spurrier just 3-7 as home dog since arriving in ‘05. Tech edgeslight
to Florida, based on recent trends.

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...MSU didn’t cover vs. Tide
LY but has held its own lately in series, winning 2 of last 3 SU and
6-3 last 9 vs number. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on
series trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at MARSHALL...Herd now 6-1 last 7 vs.
number overall. USM 0-1 as road chalk TY but it has been a good
role lately for Golden Eagles (9-3 last 12). Tech edge-slight to
Marshall, based on recent trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at NORTH CAROLINA...Butch has won and
covered last 2 vs. former employer and Heels now 4-1 vs. line last
5 vs. Canes. Miami just 4-10 vs. line last 14 as road chalk (1-1 TY).
Butch 8-3 last 11 as dog. Tech edge-UNC, based on team and
series trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE...Leach 2-0 as road dog
TY. OSU 2-4 vs. line last 6 as host (2-3 TY), and Gundy 4-7-1 last
12 on board. Tech edge-slight to TT, based on team trends.

UTAH at TCU...Utes have won and covered last 3 in series. Utes
also just 1-3 vs. line away TY and 2-6 vs. spread in ‘09. Utah 10-
4 last 14 as dog (but 0-1 TY). Frogs 19-5 vs. points at home since
‘05. Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.

AUBURN at GEORGIA...Dawgs have won last 3 in series
although they couldn’t quite cover on Plains LY. Richt 0-3 vs. line at
home TY and 1-7 last 8 as host. Tigers also 1-7 vs. number last 8 on
road! Tech edge-slight to Auburn, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at UCF...UH 5-1 vs. line last 6 away, Cougs also 6-1
vs. line TY. UCF 3-1 vs. number as host TY. Tech edge-slight to
UH, based on team trends.

LA TECH at LSU...Bulldogs now 2-10-1 vs. line last 13 away, 5-
17-1 last 23 vs. line on road. Tigers 2-10 last 12 vs. spread as host.
Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on team trends.

WYOMING at SAN DIEGO STATE...Ugh! Home team has
covered last 8 and 11 of last 12 meetings. Wyo 6-2 vs. line TY.
Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on series home trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at HAWAII...Ugh! UH 3-1 vs. line last 4
meetings. NMSU no covers last 3 TY. Tech edge-UH, based on
team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Howard is 0-3 vs.
line as host TY. Red Wolves, however, just 8-20 last 28 on board.
Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on ASU negatives.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UL-MONROE...WKU 2-8 vs. line
against Belt foes since LY (only covers vs. Troy!). Warhawks have
covered last 4 at Malone Stadium. Tech edge-ULM, based on
team trends.

TROY at ARKANSAS...Troy 5-3 vs. line last 8 vs. SEC, also 10-5
as dog since ‘05. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA INT'L...FIU has won and covered
last 2. Mean Green only 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY. Golden Panthers 7-2-1
vs. line last 10 as host. Tech edge-FIU, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU has covered its
last 5 as chalk. Tech edge-ULL, based on series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TULSA (Sunday, November 15)...Skip 6-14
last 20 on board (3-5 TY). Tulsa 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host. Tech
edge-slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER NFL

CHICAGO at SAN FRANCISCO (Thursday, November
12)...Singletary 10-4-2 last 16 on board. Tech edge-49ers,
based on team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at NY JETS...Jets 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY, but
Jags no covers last 4. Jags “under” 3-1 away TY and 8-3 since LY.
Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Jets, based on “totals”
and team trends.

DENVER at WASHINGTON...Denver 6-1 vs. line and “under” 14-
5 last 19. Zorn “under” 17-6-1 since LY. Skins no covers first 4 as
host TY, now 1-9 vs. points last 10 as host. Tech edge-Broncos
and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH...Marvin Lewis 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs.
line away TY. Cincy “under” 19-10 last 29 overall. Last three and
six of last nine in series “over,” 6 of last 7 meetings “over” at Heinz
Field. Steel “over” 48-24 last 72 at home (2-2 TY). Tech edge-
“Over” and Bengals, based on “totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE...Bills now “under” last 4 TY. Jauron
5-1 last 6 as road dog. Tech edge-“Under” and Bills, based on
“totals” and team trends.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Lions had covered both meetings LY
but fell in first clash vs. Vikes TY. Lions 12-4 “over” last 16 away.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ST. LOUIS...Saints 3-0 vs. line away TY.
Saints also “over” 20-9 last 29 overal. Rams 5-14 vs. number at
home since ‘07. Rams “over” 10-4 last 14 as host. Tech edge-
“Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA At CAROLINA...Panthers 0-3 vs. line at home TY, no
covers last 4 as host since late LY. Panthers also “under” 9-4 last
13 at home (“under” 2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Falcons and
“under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at MIAMI...Miami 2-2 vs. line at home TY but
Sparano only 4-9 vs. spread as host since ‘08. Miami also “over” 4-
0 at home TY after “under” 7-2 as host LY. Bucs 2-10 vs. line last
11 on board. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on team trends.

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND...Chiefs have covered last 6 and 7
of last 8 at Oakland. Road team 12-0-1 vs. line last 13 in series!
Raiders 15-36-1 vs. line at home since ‘03 (2-2 TY), also 0-9 last 9
as home chalk. “Unders” 8-1 last 9 meetings! Tech edge-Chiefs
and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA... Cards “over” in last home game after 3
“unders” in Glendale, remember Cards were “over” 14-2 previous
16 as host. Seahawks have dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread against
Cards. Seahawks also “over” 9-4 last 13 away (2-1 TY). Tech
edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO...If Andy Reid a dog note 10-2
spread mark on road in role since ‘06. Tech edge-Eagles, based
on team trends.

DALLAS at GREEN BAY...Dallas has won and covered the last
two years vs. Pack. Pack also “over” 12-5 last 17 at Lambeau.
Dallas “over” 7-2 last 9 since late LY. Tech edge-“Over,” based
on “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts had covered 4 straight
in series prior to LY when Indy couldn’t quite cover 18-15 win.
Belichick 1-4 SU last 5 in series he once controlled. Belichick 5-2 as
dog since ‘06. Colts just 4-8 vs. line at Lucas Oil Stadium since LY.
Indy also “under” 8-4 in new stadium (3-1 TY). Tech edge-
Patriots and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (Monday, November
16)...Ravens have won and covered last 3 meetings. Browns 3-9
vs. line last 12 since late LY (3-5 for Mangini). Ravens “over” 10-5
last 14 on road. Tech edge-Ravens and “over,” based on
team and ‘totals” trends.

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

KENTUCKY
Series and team trends present a compelling case for Kentucky
as it travels to Vanderbilt for a Saturday SEC battle. The Wildcats
had covered 4 straight vs. the Dores prior to last year’s upset loss
at Lexington, and are undefeated vs. the line their last 4 games in
Nashville (including a pair of wins at the Music City Bowl). UK has
also covered 4 straight away from home and its last 3 as road chalk.
Meanwhile, Vandy’s home field edge has vanished, as the Dores
have dropped 7 straight vs. the number as host.

KANSAS STATE
They’re hot! We’re talking about the Kansas State Wildcats, who
have caught a nice updraft in the second half of the season and look to
move closer to the Big XII North crown when hosting Missouri this
Saturday. The Wildcats have covered their last four games and have
posted an impressive +12.75 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark
their past two games for HC Bill Snyder. Meanwhile, the Tigers
have lost momentum, covering only 1 of their last 6 on the board.

AIR FORCE
Some very specific series trends indicate that Air Force is
worth full consideration for its Saturday Mountain West encounter
at Colorado Springs vs. UNLV. Note that the home team has
covered the last four in this series, and the Falcs have won and
covered their last three when hosting the Rebs, all by 17 points or
more. Air Force is also 11-4 vs. line as chalk for HC Troy Calhoun,
and has posted a +11.25 “AFS” (Away From Spread) its last 2
games. Meanwhile UNLV has long struggled on the road for HC
Mike Sanford, standing just 6-17 vs. the line its last 23 away.

HAWAII
Things have turned around lately for Hawaii, which looks to
extend its recent uptick when hosting New Mexico State at Aloha
Stadium Saturday night. While covering their last two games, the
Warriors have posted a nation’s second-best +17.00 “AFS”
(Away From Spread). They’ve also won and covered big the last
2 and 3 of the last 4 vs. the Aggies, who have dropped their last 3
vs. the number and are only 8-16-1 vs. the line their last 25 away.

KANSAS CITY
There isn’t a more compelling NFL series trend than taking the
visitor whenever old rivals Kansas City and Oakland get together.
This Sunday, it’s the Chiefs’ turn in that desired role for their game at the
Coliseum, where Kansas City has covered the last 6 and 7 of its last 8
visits. Indeed, the road team is 12-0-1 vs. the number the last 13 in this
series. Also note the Raiders’ poor 15-36-1 home spread mark since
2003....when the Chiefs also won and covered at the Coliseum!

Power Sweep

4* BYU 48-10
3* Nebraska 24-10
3* Marshall 28-21
2* Penn St. 45-10
2* Miami 27-17

Underdog Troy +15 30-38 Cover

4* Jets 23-10
3* Carolina 23(+) - 17 Carolina outright
2* Cinn. 24(+) -27 Cover
2* N.O. 42-6

3* Bengals Over 44
3* Seahawks Under 47
3* Dolphins Over 43
2* Chiefs Under 36
2* Vikings Over 49

Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS

Thursday, Nov. 12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 31 over Ball State

Friday, Nov. 13
Temple by 10 over AKRON

Saturday, Nov. 14

ILLINOIS by 10 over Northwestern - I don't have the slightest idea what Coach Ron Zook has done to fire up a previously hapless Illinois (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) but it's working. In their last two games the Illini have pistol-whipped Michigan, 38-13, at home and knocked off a good Minnesota team, 35-32, last week in Minneapolis. The figures say it will continue this week in this rivalry game against Northwestern (6-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) which comes into this contest off a draining 17-10 win at Iowa last week.

WISCONSIN by 13 over Michigan - This is as much a play against Michigan (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) as it is a play on Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS). Michigan seems to have fallen off the edge of the world and stands 0-3 in its last three games, with the losses coming because the Wolverines have little offense and suddenly absolutely no defense. In their last three games, losses to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue, the Wolverines have given up an average of 37.0 points per game - something heretofore unheard of for a Michigan football team.

WAKE FOREST by 9 over Florida State - Wake Forest (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is much better than its record and has all the edges in this game against Florida State (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) that has a defense that not only can't stop anybody - it can't even slow down anyone. Wake Forest has lost five games this season by a total of 13 points and should find things a bit easier against an FSU team that last week lost at Clemson, 40-24, and which has given up an average of 39.5 points in its last four games.

Western Michigan by 17 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - Western Michigan (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) certainly is no world-beater but has every edge but the home field against a winless Eastern Michigan (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) team that has reached the end of the line - a fact illustrated by its 50-6 loss at Northern Illinois last season. That loss came on the heels of a 63-27 loss at Arkansas and put the Eagles in a "what's-the-use" state of mind? This one should be just as easy as it looks.

KANSAS by 7 over Nebraska - I just have a gut feeling Kansas (5-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) is going to crank it up against a Nebraska (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that arrives in Lawrence off an unimpressive 10-3 win over Oklahoma. However, ugly or not, the win over the Sooners had to drain Nebraska physically and mentally. Against OU, Nebraska had 5 interceptions, 7 first downs and 180 yards of total offense and that won't get it done against a Kansas offense that seems ready to explode. KU opened the season 5-0 and has since gone 0-4, and this game give the Jayhawks a shot at redemption, especially after losing last week to arch-rival Kansas State, 17-10.

UCLA by 28 over Washington State - UCLA (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is battling to become bowl eligible and is not about to blow the opportunity to get another win against a Washington State (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that is nothing short of embarrassing. UCLA, which beat Washington, 24-23 last week, has played well on the road against good teams this season. Front and center now is Washington State, which averages 15.5 points and 282.6 yards on offense and gives up 35.5 points and 510.9 yards on defense in each game.

KANSAS STATE by 13 over Missouri - Who would have thought it - that Kansas State (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) just might make it to the Big 12 championship game against Texas? When Coach Bill Snyder returned to take over the helm in Manhattan, he faced a monumental rebuilding process and did not seem to have the talent to be more than competitive. The season did start slowly but the Wildcats woke up, put it all together and are playing at the highest level, standing 3-1 in their last 4 games, with the loss coming 42-30 at Oklahoma. Missouri opened the season 4-0 and then went into a state of collapse and comes into this off a stunning home 40-32 home loss to Baylor.

NORTH CAROLINA by 7 over Miami - North Carolina (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has looked like a new football team since it is healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. The Tar Heels had everybody back two games ago and won at Virginia Tech, 20-17, and repeated that form at home last week in knocking off upstart Duke, 19-6. This is now the Tar Heel team I felt was a top ten squad at the beginning of the season. Miami (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) won't be an easy out but the experience of North Carolina, especially at the skill positions, should make the difference.

Best Of The Rest
Boston College by 14 over VIRGINIA
LOUISVILLE by 10 over Syracuse
OHIO STATE by 17 over Iowa
PENN STATE by 14 over Indiana
PURDUE by 4 over Michigan State
Georgia Tech by 15 over DUKE
Kentucky by 7 over VANDERBILT
Texas by 35 over BAYLOR
Virginia Tech by 21 over MARYLAND
MISSISSIPPI by 6 over Tennessee
BYU by 55 over NEW MEXICO
Colorado by 6 over IOWA STATE
BOISE STATE by 21 over Idaho
SMU by 10 over Texas-El Paso
Stanford by 3 over USC
Arizona by 10 over CALIFORNIA
OREGON by 13 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA by 10 over Texas A&M
UTAH STATE by 17 over San Jose State
NEVADA by 6 over Fresno State
Tulane by 4 over RICE
AIR FORCE by 24 over UNLV
OREGON STATE by 10 over Washington
Florida by 7 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Alabama by 12 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL by 4 over Southern Miss
OKLAHOMA STATE by 7 over Texas Tech
LSU by 42 over Louisiana Tech
SAN DIEGO STATE by 14 over Wyoming
HAWAII by 21 over New Mexico State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 3 over Arkansas State
UL-MONROE by 35 over Western Kentucky
ARKANSAS by 7 over Troy
FIU by 10 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over UL-Lafayette

NFL BEST BETS

Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS

Sunday, Nov. 15

JETS by 7 over Jaguars - The New York Jets (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) come into this game off a much needed bye week and should have a full tank of gas for a Jacksonville (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) that last week was as straight as a string in beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-21. The Jaguars had 426 yards of total offense in that game and were still life and death to get the win, but that has been there story all season. The Jets are fresh, are playing at home and need a win if they have any hope of getting to the post season.

DOLPHINS by 13 over Buccaneers - Miami (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) is a much better team that its record indicates and it is important to note the Dolphins 27-17 loss at New England last week was much closer than the final score indicates. The fish have all the edges in this one and should be able to control the pace of the game with the most effective and powerful ground game in the NFL. Tampa Bay (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) got off the snide last week with a 38-28 win over Green Bay and, unfortunately for them, puts them in a bounce-down mode.

CARDINALS by 21 over Seahawks - The up-and-down Arizona Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) arrive back home for this game off an impressive 41-21 upset win at Chicago and seem to have enough edges to make short work of the visiting Seahawks who as this is being written are trailing the power Detroit Lions, 17-7. The first time these two teams met this season - in Seattle - Arizona took down an easy 27-3 win and there is no reason to expect a different result in this spot. Seattle is out of excuses and obviously is simply a bad football team.

Broncos by 13 over REDSKINS - Because Denver is coming off a tough Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is as much a play against the Redskins as it is a play on the Broncos. Denver needs no introduction to anyone. It is a team playing excellent defense, outstanding field position offense and under its new head coach has become one of the most physical teams in the NFL. As for Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS), the Redskins seem to be able to move the ball all over the field but have no real ability to put it in the end zone.

Best Of The Rest
Bengals by 4 over STEELERS
TITANS by 10 over Bills
VIKINGS by 17 over Lions
Saints by 9 over RAMS
Falcons by 4 over PANTHERS
Chiefs by 7 over RAIDERS
Eagles by 10 over CHARGERS
PACKERS by 7 over Cowboys

COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS

Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS

Friday, Nov. 13

PURDUE by 15 over CS-Northridge - Purdue is loaded with its top six players returning from last year's 27-10 NCAA team but will find CS-Northridge better than its press clippings. The Boilermakers need to be ready to play in this one.

South Florida by 7 over SMU - Coach Stan Heath has done a great job in getting prime-time players to come to South Florida and you can take it to the bank this year's team is dramatically better than the one that went 9-22 last season. Heath made a major score in the off-season when he landed the best juco player in the country - Jarrid Famous, a 6-11 center who averaged 25.2 points and 13.6 rebounds per game last year at Westchester CC. SMU will be better, but not good enough in this spot.

SETON HALL by 20 over St. Peters - This is the best Seton Hall team since the early 1990s and is going to make a lot of noise this season. Coach Bobby Gonzalez will have the use of three big-time blue-chip 1-A transfers this season, including former McDonald's All-American forward, the 6-8 Herb Pope who averaged 11.1 points and 6-8 rebounds per game as a freshman at New Mexico State. St. Peters will be better, but still not good enough.

MINNESOTA by 25 over Tennessee Tech - The Golden Gophers are solid from top to bottom, are better than last year's 22-11 team, and should have little trouble against a Tennessee Tech team that is going to be forced to live and die by its 3-point game. I don't think that will work against a Minnesota team coached by Tubby Smith, a man who requires his teams play lock-down defense.

IOWA STATE by 30 over Idaho State - Iowa State returns four of five starters and 79.8% of its scoring from last season's 15-17 team and has one of the best players in college basketball in 6-10 junior forward who averaged 20.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game last year. He passed up the NBA draft to stay with the Cyclones and is a game-breaker. Idaho State is simply outclassed in this one.

Saturday, Nov. 14

DAYTON by 12 over Creighton - Dayton has its best basketball team in years, returning four of five starters and 10 of its top 11 players from last year's 27-8 team that lost to eventual national champion Kansas, 60-43, in the second round of the NCAA. The only thing that will keep this game close is the fact Creighton, which went 27-8 last year, always comes to play and it plays defense as if it had invented it.

BUTLER by 21 over Davidson - Talk about loaded. Butler returns all five starters from last year's 26-6 NCAA team and deserves all the pre-season accolades which played the Bulldogs in almost everyone's Top Ten. Davidson is in a rebuilding mode this season and will come to play but simply seems up against it in Indianapolis. We also need to mention Butler also plays defense as if it invented it.

RICE by 10 over South Alabama - The fine folks at former basketball doormat Rice are about to discover just what a great coach such as Ben Braun brings to the game. The Owls, who went 10-22 in Braun's first season, will not be world-beaters this time around but they will be better and they will come to play in every game. They are catching South Alabama, with just one starter back from last year's 20-13 team, in a rebuilding mode and should get the win.

Sunday, Nov. 15

TEXAS by 45 over Cal-Irvine - The talent is in Austin for Texas to be one of the top 2-3 teams in the country and the Longhorns under Coach Rick Barnes are never bashful about showing it. Texas, which went 23-12 last season, will come out firing in this one and will bury an outclassed UC-Irvine team that is not as good as the one that went 12-19 in 2008-09.

TULSA by 20 over Florida International - Tulsa is another team that is fielding its best squad in years and has the talent and firepower to completely dominate a Florida International team that has as little talent as any 1-A basketball team. It's going to be a rough year for first-year Coach Isiah Thomas, because the cupboard is bare.

Monday, Nov. 16

SAINT MARY'S by 8 over San Diego State - Both these teams are in a rebuilding mode and the home court is the big edge for Saint Mary's in this one. San Diego State lost four of five starters from last year's outstanding 26-10 team and picked a tough spot to try to win.

LSU by 19 over Indiana State - LSU lost much of its firepower from last year's 27-8 team but is not going to be anybody's pushover. Second-year coach Trent Johnson is just what the doctor ordered for this program and he will put a team on the floor that can compete with anyone. Indiana State should be much improved over last year's 11-21 team but doesn't have the front-line punch to get it done on the road against a team as quick and big as LSU.

NBA BEST BETS

Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS

Friday, Nov. 13

MAGIC by 15 over Nets - One of the NBA's best meets one of the league's worst in this one and there is no reason to think Orland will not dominate. The Nets opened the season 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS and have been losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.

NUGGETS by 7 over Lakers - There is plenty of evidence that these two teams are dead-even in every aspect of the game and the host Nuggets must get the nod in this one. The game is on ESPN and that means it will be show time for the Nuggets who don't get the exposure the Lakers receive.

Saturday, Nov. 14

HAWKS by 8 over Hornets - My figures say Atlanta is one of the most under-rated teams in the NBA and have it all going for them against a Hornets team that has not done much yet to impress anybody. For certain, linemakers have not yet caught up with the Hawks and that means we will once again get an edge with the numbers. Atlanta opened 5-1 ATS and just keeps rolling.

HEAT by 14 over Nets - The hapless Nets are playing back-to-back on the road and are facing a Miami team that has proved to be very tough at home. Until New Jersey gets some of its key players back from injury, the Nets are going to get their heads handed to them at home and on the road.

BUCKS by 9 over Warriors - Milwaukee has done nothing spectacular this season but the Bucks are coming to play every night and they are playing outstanding defense, giving up 90.7 points per game. Defense will be a big edge in this one, since the Warriors don't even know how to spell the word.

Sunday, Nov. 15

THUNDER by 7 over Clippers - The Thunder is showing signs of life, obviously is one of the most improved teams in the NBA and matches up perfectly with an up-and-down Clippers team that seems to be performing with a high degree of disinterest. For certain Oklahoma City will come to play.

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 *N.Y. JETS over Jacksonville
*N.Y. JETS 31 - Jacksonville 13
(Sunday, November 15)

10 *WAKE FOREST over Florida State
*WAKE FOREST 34 - Florida State 16

10 TENNESSEE over *Mississippi
TENNESSEE 27 - *Mississippi 20

10 NOTRE DAME over *Pittsburgh
NOTRE DAME 31 - *Pittsburgh 27

10 AUBURN over *Georgia
AUBURN 30 - *Georgia 24

Hungry New York has had a week off to get healthy and prepare for Jacksonville, and Jags seem ripe for the taking. J’ville has dropped four straight spread decisions, and lost its last two road games 30-13 at Tennessee and 41-0 at Seattle. Jag QB David Garrard has thrown 4 ints. and just 1 TD pass in the last 4 games, as Maurice Jones-Drew has been relied upon to carry the offense. The Jets have a huge defensive edge, ranking third in the NFL in total defense (J’ville is 22nd), and yield 8 ppg fewer than the Jags. N.Y. rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who had a 5-interception debacle against the Bills in Week Six, has looked much better in the last two games, throwing 3 TD passes with no interceptions. Look for the Jets to bounce back in what shapes up as a key game in their race for a playoff spot. There are several strong angles pointing to a solid Wake victory against Florida State this week. Deacon QB Skinner, a 4-year starter, holds a major edge now that Seminole starter Ponder is suffering from a shoulder injury and out for the year. This is the worst FSU defense in at least a decade, yielding 34 ppg, 202 ypg rushing, and 248 ypg passing against TGS-rated foes. If those numbers continue, this will be statistically the worst defense in Bobby Bowden’s 33 years at the school. Additionally, Wake Forest has given better FSU teams fits since Skinner arrived on campus, winning the last three straight-up, and the Deacons have covered 5 straight in the series. This is Wake’s final home game, and a win in this one opens the door for a 6-win season and bowl-eligibility. Wake Forest has 17 redshirt seniors in its two-deep roster, so expect that group to go out on a high note. Yes, HC Lane Kiffin is too often a smart-ass. But his knack with QBs is making a major difference with sr. Jonathan Crompton (5 TDP vs. porous Memphis last week), who already possessed the NFL size (6-4) and arm strength, but now has some confidence and accuracy to go with them. Moreover, UT’s WR corps is now healthier and better synchronized after a slew of early-season injuries. Plus, the Mario Hardesty (901 YR) and Bryce Brown (400 YR) RB rotation has provided Kiffin with a consistent, high-quality ground force, even against some of the SEC’s toughest defenses. Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead has lacked the expected accuracy TY, hitting only 51.9% with 17 TDs vs. 13 interceptions. And give daddy Monte Kiffin credit for getting the Vols’ defense to hold strong vs. the likes of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina despite injuries. Count on one thing from low-variance Notre Dame: its games are likely going to go down to the wire. Seven of last eight Irish contests have been decided by 7 or fewer (with underdog covering in each of those). And now with ND’s (and Charlie Weis’) backs to the wall after last week’s loss vs. Navy, expect kamikaze effort from Irish. Despite Pitt’s resurgence, we’re still not quite convinced a gap has developed between these two programs, especially after the Panthers (whose bigger wins have come vs. flawed opposition) struggled in October vs. competent Big East entries UConn & Rutgers. And though Panther QB Stull (17 TDP & just 4 picks) & frosh sensation RB Lewis (already 1136 YR) are enjoying banner campaigns, ND well-equipped to trade points now that Jimmy Clausen has big-play WR Michael Floyd available once more. SEC sources believe any points offered by oddsmakers are a bonus for a 7-3 Auburn squad highly-motivated for oldest SEC rivalry. Tigers are not only itching to break 3-game series losing streak, but the players vow to play inspirational ball rest of the season for their seriously injured defensive leader CB Etheridge (cracked verterbrae). Now that Auburn’s productive QB Todd is back in a groove, and quick, all-purpose weapon Fannin is playing a more instrumental role, Tigers well-designed & balanced attack (35 ppg; SEC-best 450 ypg) should excel vs. vulnerable Georgia defense (26 ppg; 11th in pass D in SEC) that has a meager 6 takeaways all year. Plus, watch Auburn’s fast, physical & pumped-up RB Tate (1142 YR, 5.6 ypc, 8 TDs) make hay after generating only 37 yds. in 14 carries in 17- 14 home loss LY. Meanwhile, Dawgs’ highly-erratic QB Cox (12 ints.) barely hanging on to his starting job, as the containable UGA offense has scored an SEC-low 12 TDs in the red zone in ‘09. Dawgs just 1-7 vs. spread last 8 in Athens.

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

TOTALS: OVER (44) in the Tampa Bay-Miami Game——”Wildcat” Dolphins have gone “over” every chance TY at LandShark Stadium.

NINE-RATED GAMES: SAN FRANCISCO (-3) vs. Chicago [NFL; Thursday]——Incredibly meaningful game for former Chicago great Mike Singletary; his defense let him down Sunday vs. Tennessee, but it won’t fail him this time...MARSHALL (+3) vs. Southern Miss——Thundering Herd’s aptly-named sr. RB Darius Marshall (1032 YR) well rested to lead the charge vs. Southern’s vulnerable defense...FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-2½) vs. North Texas—Golden Panthers 7-2-1 vs. the spread last 10 at home; generally play more defense than offense-oriented Eagles...NEW ENGLAND (+2½) at Indianapolis (NFL)——Colts vulnerable on defense with at least four starters out, including three veteran DBs; Pats totally focused after losing four of last five meetings.

PLAYBOOK

Thursday, November 12

MIAMI OHIO over Bowling Green by 1
The 4-5 Falcons kept their bowl hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory
at Buffalo last Tuesday and if they want to keep it going they’ll have to do
it against an opponent who they’ve only defeated once since 1997. The 1-9
RedHawks have dominated the series, winning 9 of the last 10 SU and 8 of 10
on the ATS scoreboard, including all four SU and ATS as dogs. While the Falcons
have been money in the bank on the road against losing opposition with a 10-0
SU and 9-1 ATS log, and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win, we’ll lean to the
hard-trying ‘Hawks who have cashed a trifecta by winning the last 3 games SU
in the series – all as pups. Make it a superfecta

NO ILLINOIS over Ball St by 20
Gonad fans have been nothing but blue since starting the 2008 season 12-0.
A win over lowly Eastern Michigan, despite passing for only 1 yard, may have
halted the Cardinals’ 9-game losing skid (and HC Stan Parrish’s personal 32-
game skein), but fans once again have their heads hanging low after a 20-17
Halloween home loss to Ohio U. And it only gets harder as they end their
season with the top three MAC West contenders, including this Thursday
night visit to Dekalb. Jerry Kill’s 6-3 bunch will be looking to avenge a 45-
14 thrashing from last season and they have the Huskies to do it. They’re
averaging over 30 PPG and their three losses were by a combined 12 points.
Talk about a “Ball-drop” – the Cardinals were installed as 8.5-point favorites
two years ago on this fi eld and now arrive as 17-point dogs. Don’t let the
double-digits scare you, as the hosts are a solid 3-0 ATS in LHG’s versus
conference opponents. Our system book says NIU will go for the “Kill” and
so do we.

South Florida over RUTGERS by 3
The Big East joins the weekday mix but this one’s not worth missing ‘CSI’ or
‘The Mentalist’ over. Both squads will be bowling for the 5th straight season
but minor ones at best. Good and bad ATS numbers litter both sides as Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights are a solid 7-1 ATS at home with rest but just 4-9 ATS at
home off a SU dog win. Meanwhile, Jim Leavitt’s crew enters with a steady 5-1
ATS mark off a SU dog win but a winless 0-4 ATS Thursday log. With the visitors
looking to avenge a 49-16 home loss last season – their worst ever in Big East
competition – we’ll jog with the Bulls tonight in New Brunswick.

Friday, November 13

Temple over AKRON by 6
It’s Friday the 13th and the Temple Owls are riding a 7-game winning streak. Who
would have thought it after a season-opening home loss to Villanova! Strange
things do happen on this day but they’ll be nothing strange about a win over
an Akron group that’s zipped to only one victory this season (Morgan State)
and who is 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games versus lined opposition.
Yes, the Owls are in foreign territory – that of conference road chalk – but they
did prevail in that role earlier this season at Eastern Michigan. Plus, Temple’s
rushing attack (169 YPG) against Akron’s 99th-ranked run defense supports the
price tag. Zippity-Do-Not – take the points, that is.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

West Virginia over CINCINNATI by 1
The Hawkeyes fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last weekend and if Bill
Stewart’s Mountaineers have any say in the matter, “another one bites
the dust” this week. While we’re sure Brian Kelly would prefer Queen’s
other hit, “We are the Champions” to be playing over the course of
the next few weeks, the ATS archives make a solid case for the quality
hillbillies. Besides the visitor carrying an AMEX Gold-like 5-0-2 series
mark, the Mountaineers are a spotless 6-0 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or
more points. In fact, since the 2002 season, West Virginia is a mountainlike
40-11 SU in Big East play with only four of those losses coming by
double-digits. Inside those numbers lurks a 20-6 SU and ATS road mark,
including 9-1 ATS when taking points. Bearcat backers will remind us that
they are 10-4 ATS as conference favorites of less than 14 points and a
perfect 6-0 ATS on weekdays, but our database has uncovered this little
gem: undefeated favorites of more than 8 points off four SU and ATS wins
are just 16-29 ATS, including 9-21 ATS off a win of 19 or more points. The
noose tightened for the Bearcats in last week’s 2-point win over UConn.
Look for West Virginia to avenge their only home loss last season and
apply the strangle hold.

Saturday, November 14

VIRGINIA over Boston College by 1
After getting tossed aside last week in the eye of the Hurricanes, the ‘Groh
Must Go’ chants will be heard early and often this afternoon in Charlottesville.
Yes, the punchless Cavs (less than 200 yards of total offense in each of their
last three games) have dropped three straight but we can’t let Al go just yet –
not until we grab another piece of his money-making tendencies. The 9th-year
headman is a terrifi c 14-6 ATS as a home dog of 3 or more points and an even
more profi table 12-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. That ties in nicely with
BC’s 3-5 SU and ATS mark away with rest versus conference opponents. While
1st-year HC Frank Spaziani has been perfect at Chesnut Hill (6-0, SU, 5-0 ATS), he
has yet to win away from home (0-3). No way we’re laying points in this spot.

ILLINOIS over Northwestern by 6
Just when it looked like ‘Juice’ was starting to get loose, the senior QB suffered
another setback (injured ankle) during this forgettable season. Still, the 3-6
Illini kept their slim bowl hopes alive as they held off a 4th-quarter Minnesota
rally. With a trip to Cincy on deck, it’s unlikely Ron Zook’s bunch will go bowling
but you can bet they’ll look to keep the Wildcats home for the holidays after
last season’s 27-10 season-ending loss at Northwestern which prevented the
Illini from hitting the alleys. The ‘Cats are purring after ending Iowa’s dream
of a National Title last week but they have performed like kittens after pulling
off a SU dog win, posting a 2-8 ATS mark. Our PLAYBOOK.com database also
warns us that road teams who upset an 8-0 or greater opponent are just 3-14
ATS their next game. Payback is sweet.

LOUISVILLE over Syracuse by 3
If you think the ‘Groh Must Go’ chants will be loud, we’d hate to hear the ‘Steve
Must Leave’ bellowing at Papa John Stadium today! The 3rd-year coach has
turned the Beasts of the East into league laughingstocks as they have dropped
10 of their last 11 conference games, including a 28-21 setback to Syracuse last
season as 11-point favorites – and a 2007 38-35 head-turner as a 37.5-point
choice. Losing as a 37.5-point favorite? That should be grounds for immediate
dismissal. In fact, the Orange have covered the last four in this series and our
database says there’s room for more as it notes: teams in Game Ten, playing
just their 3rd road game of the season are 19-1 SU and 17-2 ATS when facing
a losing opponent. Wow! The Cardinals’ 1-4 ATS mark after tangling with the
Mountaineers seals the deal and, most likely, Kragthorpe’s fate as well.

OHIO ST over Iowa by 16
Opportunity came knocking last Saturday afternoon and Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes
took full advantage. With news of Iowa’s shocking home loss to Northwestern
fl ashing on the Beaver Stadium scoreboard, Ohio State seized control of its
game with 11th-ranked Penn State and cruised to a convincing 24-7 smackdown
of the Nittany Lions – the fewest points scored by Joe Pa’s crew since a 13-3 loss
at Wisconsin in 2006. So, in just one week, the Big 10 title race saw the Buckeyes
go from ‘the outside looking in’ to a team in total control of what looks to be a
rosy destiny. Not so for the Hawkeyes after losing QB Ricky Stanzi. When Stanzi
left the Northwestern game with an ankle injury in the 2nd quarter (Iowa led
10-7), replacement QB James Vandenberg went 9-of-27 for 81 yards and the
Hawks never came close to scoring again. If the Black-and-Gold couldn’t dent
the scoreboard in almost three quarters of play against the Wildcats, imagine
them trying to move the ball against an OSU defense that held Penn State
to 9 fi rst downs and 201 total yards! Iowa brings some solid ‘D’ of its own to
this matchup, holding fi ve foes to season-low yards, including the last three
in a row. But after that, it’s all downhill. The Bucks have dominated the series
recently, covering seven of the last eight meetings (5-0 ATS L5 at Columbus),
and have crushed Iowa in the two most recent contests by scores of 38-17 and
31-6. More bad news for Kirk Ferentz from our PLAYBOOK.com database: 9-0
or greater teams off their fi rst loss of the season are 5-11 ATS away in the next
game, including 0-5 ATS versus an .800 or greater opponent. In what could
have been a thrilling battle for Big 10 supremacy and a trip to the Rose Bowl,
Iowa runs out of luck at the Horseshoe today.

WISCONSIN over Michigan by 13
When celebrity alum Charles Woodson, a Heisman Trophy winner who led
the Wolverines to the national championship in 1997, is quoted as saying,
“It’s hard to watch Michigan play football right now,” UM fans know the
program is in big trouble. It’s little wonder that Woodson and Wolverine
nation are thoroughly disgusted over the performance of their team under
HC Rich Rodriguez. Not only did last year’s 3-9 debacle – the most losses ever
by the nation’s winningest program – snap a 33-year bowl streak, a 4-0 start
in 2009 has turned into a 5-5 fl op that puts the Wolves in jeopardy of once
again failing to reach postseason play. Perhaps most embarrassing, though, is a
horrid 3-11 SU record in conference play – including FIVE losses at the Big House
and consecutive defeats to hated Michigan State. Whew! It’s no surprise that
powerful Michigan boosters are calling for the ouster of Rodriquez and the
hiring of current Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh, former UM QB who went
21-3-1 as a starter at Ann Arbor and led the Maize-and-Blue to a trio of bowl
games. That sounds fi ne to us: Michigan burned us last week as a 5* newsletter
pick and, like a jilted lover, we’re no longer interested. If you still harbor any
doubts, check out Wisconsin’s ATS ammunition for today’s game: the Badgers
are 5-1 ATS in the last six at Camp Randall Stadium, 5-1 ATS home before backto-
back road games and an impressive 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS playing their Last
Home Game versus an opponent off a loss. Convinced?

PENN ST over Indiana by 24
Despite a likely 10-2 record, Joe Paterno had got to be extremely disappointed
with the way this season has played out. Had his Lions merely held serve at
home in conference play, they would be undefeated right now – and one
of several teams in line to get screwed over by the BCS should Texas end up
playing the Florida vs. Alabama winner for the crystal football. However, Penn
State’s two losses both came at home against Big 10 foes Iowa and Ohio State,
so Joe Pa will miss out on a consolation appearance in the Rose Bowl. Likewise,
the Hoosiers can’t help but be down in the dumps. Thanks to three straight
gut-busting defeats, one-time 3-0 Indiana now stands 4-6 and must win each of
its fi nal two games (home vs Purdue next week) to go bowling. We see many
problems with this scenario. First, the Hoosiers have surrendered season high
– or 2nd high – yardage in fi ve of their last six games… not a good situation
when facing a red-faced Lions’ offense that will want to erase all memories of
last week’s anemic 7-point performance. Next, Penn State is pure pointspread
gold when playing its Last Home Game, going 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS in that
role when facing a conference opponent. Indiana must also face a 2-9 ATS
mark when playing with Big 10 revenge away from Bloomington, as well as a
3-7 ATS mark as conference dogs of 20 or more points. Believe us, there’s a lot
more we could sling at you but we’ll close by saying the Lions are 5-2 ATS lately
in the series and Indy owns an absolutely dreadful 1-11 ATS log playing its Last
Road Game of the season. You know what to do.

Michigan St over PURDUE by 6
It’s starting to look like the Big 10 is setting this season’s standard for mediocrity.
Here come two more teams from the loop that are splitsville in conference play
at 3-3 and .500 or less overall. Purdue has the slightly tougher nut to crack since
it needs to win both remaining games to avoid being frozen out of the bowl
lineup. However, off their fi rst win at the Big House since 1966, the Boilermakers’
feet may not touch the ground today until the 2nd half of this contest. The
Spartans stopped a two-game losing skein by pummeling Western Michigan
last week, both in the stats (602-211 yards) and on the scoreboard (49-14), but
they’ve failed to cash in four of their last fi ve journeys to West Lafayette. Still,
Michigan State has won and covered both games against Purdue with current
head coach Mark Dantonio calling the shots and that seems like good enough
reason to back Sparty here. We’ll take the team with the better offense and
the better defense – and the coach that’s been there before against one that
has not.

WAKE FOREST over Florida St by 1
Dadgummit, Bobby… you’ve got only yourself to blame. You could have gone
out on top after a 9-4 season in 2008 that wrapped in high style with a 42-13
annihilation of Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. But no, you couldn’t stand
the thought of Joe ‘looks like a grocery store produce manager but he’s really
a football coach’ Paterno snatching the college football career victory crown
from your head. So you came back and all hell broke loose. And as if cheating
scandals, pissed-off boosters and a lackluster campaign weren’t bad enough, ol’
Bobby just got word that QB Christian Ponder is out for the remainder of the
season with a shoulder injury. Oh yeah, did we forget to mention that Wake
Forest is favored for the FIRST TIME in this series? But even though FSU stands
20-4 SU against Wake, the once-mighty Seminoles have been abused in three
straight games by the Deacons. The ATS archives don’t offer much support for
either side. Bowden stands 14-7 SU and 11-7 ATS when FSU owns a losing record
while Wake’s Jim Grobe is only 1-4 ATS as chalk off three or more losses (0-3
w/ Demons). Grobe’s guys need wins in their fi nal two games and Florida State
needs two wins in its fi nal three games to become bowl eligible. Since we’re
not keen on backing home favorites off overtime losses (see the “I’m A Loser”
article on page 2), we’ll lean to the visitors… especially when noting their lined
opponents are 41-21 this season. Wrong team favored?

Clemson over NC STATE by 1
We don’t know how he’s done it but Clemson HC Dabo Swinney has lit a bonfi re
under his Tigers of late. Stumbling out to a 2-3 start, Clemmie has ripped off four
consecutive wins, score 40 or more points in its last three games, and fi nds itself
atop the ACC Atlantic Division. With the striped cats hitting on all cylinders and
covering their last four trips to Raleigh, Clemson would look to be the side to
play, right? Not so fast, my friend! Not only is NC State head coach Tom O’Brien
the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page 2), he’s also making an
encore from a past Trivia Teaser: O’Brien is 24-3-1 ATS off a conference game
vs. an opponent off a SU and ATS win! And there’s always the desperation
factor to consider: the Wolfpack must win its three remaining games against
Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina to gain bowl eligibility. O’Brien will
be preaching the “one game at a time” mantra to his troops and with super
soph QB Russell Wilson scorching his last three opponents for 321 YPG passing,
we’ll cross our fi ngers and take the points today.

Ga Tech over DUKE by 16
In view of what head coach Paul Johnson has accomplished in barely two
seasons with Georgia Tech, it’s amazing that the former Navy skipper had to
wait so long before being summoned by a major program. After last year’s 9-4
season – which included the Jackets’ fi rst victory over arch rival Georgia since
2000 – Johnson has his 9-1 squad ranked #7 in this week’s BCS standings and
poised to clinch a berth in the ACC title game with a victory over Duke here.
The numbers defi nitely support the Ramblin’ Wreck: GT is 4-0 ATS recently in
the series, 5-1 ATS as road chalk of 6 or more points and 4-1 ATS playing its Last
Road Game. In contrast, Duke is a woeful 5-15-1 ATS in its L21 appearances as a
home underdog, including 2-10 off a SU and ATS loss. Thanks to the continuing
heroics of outstanding QB Thaddeus Lewis, the much-maligned Blue Devils still
have an outside shot at becoming bowl eligible. But a HUGE edge in the ground
game for Tech – 315 YPG rushing compared to Duke’s 68 YPG – looks to be
the deciding factor here. Plus, the Yellow Jackets had covered SIX consecutive
contests before last week’s narrow overtime win over Wake Forest. Too much
Tech… lay it if you play it.

Kentucky over VANDERBILT by 7
It’s not often you’ll fi nd the bluegrass Cats installed as road chalk. Since Rich
Brooks took over as head coach in 2003, it’s only happened four times – twice
against Vandy, once against Mississippi State and once against Miami Ohio (UK
has gone 3-1 ATS). Kentucky opened as a fi eld goal favorite in this SEC snoozer
but the truth is both teams are being outplayed on the fi eld: the Wildcats are
1-6 their last seven ‘In The Stats’ while the Commodores are 0-4 ITS the last four
times out of the tunnel. Our powerful database provides a glimmer of hope for
the Ashley Judd crowd since (like previously mentioned Syracuse) college teams
in Game Ten, playing just their third road game of the season, are a resounding
19-1 SU and 17-2 ATS when facing a losing opponent. And with Georgia and
Tennessee waiting on deck, this is likely the Wildcats’ best chance to bag a 6th
bowl-eligible win. The deal is sealed when we note that Vanderbilt owns an
awful 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS record as home dogs of less than 4 points. Better
dead than red… no Commies for us!

Texas over BAYLOR by 17
Yes, Texas continues to move inexorably toward its BCS Championship
showdown with either Florida or Alabama but these Baylor Bears have shown
some true grit of their own. After dropping four straight Big 12 contests, Baylor
rose up to smite mighty Missouri last week as 15-point underdogs and now
get a chance to throw the college football world into an uproar by knocking
off the Horns here. We don’t think THAT will happen but Art Briles’ bunch has
cashed four of fi ve tickets when getting more than 17 points with conference
revenge, plus the Green-and-Gold own a sweet 5-2 ATS record as home dogs of
21 or more. Mack Browns unbeaten Longhorns have controlled this series with
relative ease and Bevo has gone 14-3 ATS versus a conference foe off a nonconference
SU win of 14 or more points (beat UCF 35-3). But even with all these
glowing recommendations to back the beef, we can’t overlook two things: this
week’s AWESOME ANGLE and SMART BOX, both of which steer us in Baylor’s
direction. Yes, Texas has held fi ve of its last six opponents to season-low yards
but we’re too stubborn to go against our own dynamic duo. Hand over them
points, padnuh.

Va Tech over MARYLAND by 17
A bonafi de mismatch in the SU department, the ATS outcome is a tough one to
fi gure. Lots of good numbers on both sides cloud the issue. Virginia Tech stands
4-0 SU and ATS the last four in the series, 6-1 as DD road favorites, 3-1 in the
2nd of BB RG’s… we could go on but you get the picture. Meanwhile, Maryland
has compiled a stout 15-3-1 ATS mark off back-to-back losses, including 6-0 ATS
at home. The Terps are also 4-1 ATS off BB RG’s and 6-2 versus the number at
home with conference revenge. Upon closer inspection, though, we see the
Hokies have yet to cover a number away from Blacksburg this season, going
0-3-1 ATS. And Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen, stuck with one of his
most inconsistent and underachieving teams ever, wears a 2-6 ATS badge of
failure as a DD ACC home underdog. We’ll fl y the Swiss fl ag and stay neutral
here today.

W Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 7
If you’ve ever had an animal crawl inside one of the walls at your house and
then die, you know how indescribably awful the stench can be. Well, that’s
pretty much how things have smelled at Ypsilanti, Michigan, this season. Hired
to revive a program that had struggled to a 16-42 record in fi ve seasons under
Jeff Genyk, new head coach Ron English is in the running for the fi rst annual
‘Tyrone Willingham 0-12 Trophy’ after leading Eastern Michigan to an 0-9 start
in 2009. Outscored by an average of 39-16 per game this year, the Eagles put
the cherry on top last week with a 50-6 meltdown against Northern Illinois
where they were outgained by an obscene margin of 537-182 in total yards.
But you know what? As bad as these EMU’s are, we have no interest in laying
doubles with a Western Michigan team that is badly ‘leaking oil’, losing the stats
in its last three games while allowing season-high yards in each. The buckless
Broncos are also 1-7 SU and ATS in their last seven roadies and Saturday
they’ll be playing their 11th straight game without rest – with a season-ending
revenge game on deck! Toss in the fact that Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS as a
double-digit home dog tackling a foe off a SU and ATS loss and suddenly we’re
entertaining thoughts of taking the points. Smells like… money!

Tennessee over OLE MISS by 1
Intriguing matchup between a Rebel contingent that has clearly not lived up
to expectations this season against a ragtag team of Tennesseans that has
frankly exceeded the same. New Vols head coach Lane Kiffi n has made quite a
few enemies in 2009 but Monte, his daddy defensive coordinator, has molded
one of the toughest stop units in the nation. That could spell trouble for Ole
Miss: against the three best defensive teams they faced all year – South Carolina,
Alabama and Auburn – QB Jevan Snead and company generated just 10, 3 and
20 points. Rocky Top has certainly locked down this series for quite some time,
winning 12 straight meetings while going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS lately at Oxford.
The Vols are also a perfect 2-0 ATS wearing the dog collar in 2009 and they’ve
logged a nifty 13-4 ATS mark in their last 17 SEC road trips. Mississippi’s weak 1-6
ATS effort in next-to-last home games wraps up the package. Vols in an upset.

Byu over NEW MEXICO by 24
If you’re in a NCAA survivor pool, then this is a no-brainer as the 22nd-ranked
Cougars tune-up on the winless Lobos before ending the regular season with
Air Force and Utah. However, with a substantial amount of points involved,
brains go out the window and our trusty DB comes into view – and we like
what we see. While the Cougars have covered the last three on this fi eld and
have won 13 of 16 SU in this series since 1993, NONE of those wins were by more
than 25 points. In fact, the Lobos have taken home the money in nine of those
contests. With New Mexico 11-1 ATS as dogs with revenge versus an opponent
off back-to-back SU wins and the Cougars just 1-8 ATS as road favorites before
facing Air Force, we’ll lean ever so slightly to the out-classed hosts. A word of
advice before dancing with these wolves – they’re a toothless 0-4 SU and ATS
at home this season.

5* BEST BET
Much like the NY Giants in the NFL, after a promising 5-0 start the
Jayhawks have dropped four straight and now need one win to become
bowl eligible. We’ll look for them to get it this afternoon in Lawrence as
senior QB Todd Reesing makes his fi nal start in front of the home faithful.
Reesing has had a brilliant career, winning 25 of his 35 starts, and has
been pure profi t when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win,
notching a 7-1 SU and ATS mark – including 3-0 SU and ATS as a dog.
The Jekyll-and-Hyde Cornhuskers arrive with a ‘phony’ upset win over
rival Oklahoma, one in which they were dominated ‘ITS’ to the tune of
325-186. That sets the stage nicely for today’s ambush as Nebraska is just
1-6 ATS as favorites of 4 or more points after beating the Sooners. That
also brings Kansas HC Mark Mangino into the picture as he has won his
last six games SU and ATS versus a conference opponent off a SU dog
win. With the ‘Huskers 0-5 SU and ATS in their 2nd-to-last road game of
the season and the hosts 5-1 ATS in ‘Last Home Games’, we expect a big
send-off to a much deserved senior class. The Todd Squad to the rescue!
KANSAS over Nebraska by 11

MEMPHIS over Uab by 3
The Blazers have won two in row but we’d just as soon attend a WNBA game
(sorry, girls) than lay points on the road with the nation’s 117th-ranked defense.
While we don’t suggest making a habit out of backing the money-burning
Tigers (1-7 ATS this season), they have won the last two in this series, four of fi ve
‘Last Home Games’ SU and are a profi table 12-2 ATS as home dogs versus an
opponent off back-to-back wins. Surprisingly, they have held three of their last
fi ve opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yardage while UAB has allowed
season high – or 2nd high – yards in three of their last 4 contests. With Tommy
West having just been pink-slipped, look for the Tigers to respond. If you must,
dare we say in Memphis we trust.

Colorado over IOWA ST by 1
Iowa State is ‘leaking oil’, having been outgained by over 100 yards in each of
their last three contests and 1st-year HC Paul Rhoads is going to have to plug
that leak if he expects his Cyclones to go bowling for the fi rst time since 2005.
With a win away from becoming bowl eligible, and only a trip to Missouri left
on the schedule, the pressure squarely falls on this home contest. With the
oddsmaker knowing the Buffs are likely staying home for the third time in four
seasons and little to play for, they have made the hosts a favorite for just the
second time in the last 26 games in this series. The Buffaloes have won 20 of 24
SU as the series favorite and, oh by the way, the one time they were the dog
they won that game as well. With the pressure mounting in Ames, grab the
visitors in this false favorite special.

Ucla over WASHINGTON ST by 14
If the 4-5 Bruins have any chance of bowling this holiday season, then needless
to say a win against the prowl-less Cougars is a must. Despite fi ve turnovers,
Rick Neuheisel’s squad showed some gumption in holding off the Huskies and
snapping a 5-game ‘in the stats’ losing streak in the process. As bad and as
overmatched as the Cougars have been under Paul Wulff (3-19 SU), they have
somehow managed to cover 9 of their last 13 games and may just hang around
in this one with the pressure squarely on the young Bruins. Let’s not forget that
Pullman hasn’t exactly been Disneyland as the visitors have dropped fi ve of six
SU on this fi eld and all six on the ATS scoreboard. Bruins get the win but Cougs
get another cover. Go fi gure!

BOISE ST over Idaho by 28
While you know our penchant for fading unbeaten teams, the numbers are
just too overpowering to buck the Broncos in this usual one-sided affair. Since
1999, Boise State has beaten their in-state rivals (if you could call it a rivalry)
like a redheaded stepchild, outscoring the Vandals by an average margin of 49
to 17. They’re also 6-1-1 ATS as conference favorites of 28 or more points and
a perfect 4-0 ATS off a Friday game. While Robb Akey’s 7-3 Vandals are one of
the surprise teams in college football, his Spuds are sputtering after a 7-0 ATS
start, dropping the last 3 against the number. They’re also a famine-like 0-7 ATS
away off back-to-back home games and 0-5 ATS in ‘Last Road Games’. With
the visitors limping to the wire and the hosts still looking for beauty points to
impress the voters, we’ll douse our desire for fading unbeatens and take a seat
on the blue carpet for now.

SMU over Utep by 10
Don’t look now but June Jones has the Mustangs primed for their fi rst bowl
appearance since the days of the Pony Express. Needing just one win in its fi nal
three games, and with Marshall and Tulane still on the schedule, can anyone
say Eric Dickerson? As much as we’d like to saddle up against the Ponies when
they take on the role of favorites (0-7 ATS last seven, including 0-2 this year),
the Miners have allowed four foes season high yards – including 445 to Tulane
last week in a devastating overtime loss. Mustangs, wire-to-wire.

PITTSBURGH over Notre Dame by 1
Pittsburgh has quietly gone about its business posting an 8-1 record but
the obstacles have been few and far between for Dave Wannstedt’s 12thranked
Panthers. In reality, the season starts today as Notre Dame, West
Virginia and unbeaten Cincinnati close out the schedule. The oddsmaker
has certainly given the hosts plenty of respect as they’ve installed them as
7-point favorites. Too much respect if you ask us – especially if you consider
the Irish have won six of the last seven SU on this fi eld. In the 19-game
history of this series, the Panthers have only been favored three times and
lost all three games outright. Pitt has also not fared well as home favorites
of less than 8 points, posting a 2-6 ATS log and Wanny has been outclassed
as a home favorite versus .666 or greater opposition, checking in with an
awful 1-6 ATS log. The Irish, led by probable 1st-team All-Americans Jimmy
Claussen and Golden Tate continue to dominate the stats category (5-1 ITS
L6) but their puzzling ineptness inside the red zone will once again keep
them from crashing the BCS party. If Charlie can’t produce with this group,
will he ever win? That’s a topic for another day but the story for this day
is too many points for the unproven Panthers to lay against an offensive
juggernaut – one that is 11-1 ATS as RD’s of 8 or less points. Our eyes are
smiling on the Dame.

USC over Stanford by 13
Talk about value. The Trojans have been favored by more than 20 points
the last six times these two have met and now they enter as 11-point home
favorites. Stanford was good to us last week as they easily delivered our
College Conference Game of the Year but it’s hard to overlook USC’s 10-1
ATS mark as home favorites of 15 or less points. It’s also hard to overlook their
7-1 ATS record before facing UCLA or Stanford’s dreadful 2-10 ATS log away
off a SU dog win. Would love to snap the rubber band with Carroll’s crew today
but their 3-game ‘ITS’ losing streak, along with recent series history (Cardinal
4-1 ATS L5), keeps us at bay. However, if you want to play it, you’ve got to lay
it. You won’t see this price too often.

Arizona over CALIFORNIA by 3
Thanks to Cal star RB Jahvid Best’s injury, a funny thing happened on the
way to Memorial Stadium – the Wildcats became road favorites. It didn’t last
for long, though, as a ton of Cal money poured in to make the Bears the
favorite. The visitors arrive with the better offense and the stingier defense
which certainly makes for our kind of dog. We had California penciled in
as a ‘play on’ dog since Mike Stoop’s crew has continually fumbled the ball
as a road favorite of less than eight points off a SU and ATS win, posting a
pathetic 0-5 ATS mark. And should the line move, we’ll follow accordingly.
But for now, as long at the Golden Bears are listed as chalk, we’ll be
taking.

OREGON over Arizona St by 17
This has the makings of a typical PAC 10 shootout. However, if it turns into
a slugfest, we’ll have to back the Ducks on their pond… especially with RB
LeGarrette Blount returning from suspension. Oregon has dominated the
series of late winning the last four SU and ATS and has been terrifi c as
conference home favorites of 15 or more points, cashing at a 7-1 ATS clip.
However, the Ducks are all quack and no bite as favorites off a SU favorite
loss, recording a 4-10 ATS mark. They’ve also been out of water in Game
Ten of the season with an 0-4 ATS log. While Dennis Erickson’s Wildcats are
a solid 7-2 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back road games, they are just 1-4 ATS
after tangling with the Trojans and 2-5 ATS as double-digit conference road
dogs. You make the call.

Missouri over KANSAS ST by 3
A couple of Big 12 North teams heading in opposite directions as the Wildcats
have won four of six to claim to top spot in the standings while the cellardwelling
Tigers have dropped four of fi ve. It looks like lack of experience has
fi nally caught up with Gary Pinkel’s young Missouri squad but we feel the
value in this one is with the struggling visitors. The Tigers actually own both
the better offense and defense versus lined opposition yet arrive as 2.5-point
dogs. Let’s not forget that just last season, Kansas State was taking 27 points at
Mizzou. Bill Snyder’s Wildcats, coming off that hard-fought, emotional win over
rival Kansas, are also playing their 11th straight game with no rest. The Tigers
need one more win to become bowl eligible and they get it this afternoon in
Manhattan.

UTAH ST over San Jose St by 10
Wow, has Dick Tomey’s program taken a turn for the worse, or what? It looked
like the veteran coach had the Spartans heading in the right direction but
suddenly they’ve dropped 10 of their last 11 dating back to last season and
are now double-digit underdogs to Utah State. That right… the same Utah
State team that has been installed as double-digits favorites just four times in
111 lined games! Not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spread in three of
those contests and we’re not about to buck that anytime soon. Yes, San Jose
State is just 1-6-1 ATS as dogs off back-to-back SU and ATS losses versus an
opponent off a SU loss and, yes, they have been outscored 117-14 in the last
two contests. Those games, however, were against Boise State and Nevada.
After those beatings, Utah State may just look like a high school team. Bottom
line is we have absolutely no interest in this meaningless WAC matchup and
neither should you.

NEVADA over Fresno St by 10
Series history tells us to back the Bulldogs as the visitor is a perfect 3-0 ATS
the last three in this series while the dog is a spotless 4-0 ATS over the past 4
meetings. However, our PLAYBOOK.com database favors the hosts as it points
out the Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS as dogs of 17 or less points with revenge while
Nevada HC Chris Ault is a money-making 14-1 SU and ATS as a home favorite
of 16 or less points. We could fl ip a coin to decide this outcome or better yet we
could turn to our Midweek Alert which lets us know the Bulldogs are starting
to unravel ‘In the Stats’ by dropping their last two after a 7-0 ‘ITS’ start. It also
reminds us that the Wolfpack are 6-0 SU after an 0-3 start with an average
winning margin of 25 PPG. Two out of three ain’t bad! We’ll hunt with the
surging Wolves.

RICE over Tulane by 1
Remember when you were young and got in trouble and were sent to your
room with no dessert and no TV? These days if you get in trouble, you’re
sent to your room and told to turn on the Rice-Tulane game. This is what we
affectionately term the GGOW – Garbage Game of the Weak. If it weren’t
for the OT rule now in effect, we’d just as soon call this a tie and move on.
The Greenies have actually won three of four SU and ATS on this fi eld but
we have absolutely no interest in getting involved with a team that is 2-14
SU and 4-12 ATS away in its last 16 conference games. Don’t even think
about it!

3* BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas A&M by 28
There’s no debate that Oklahoma is the best 4-loss team in the country.
And we have a feeling that Bob Stoops will be out to prove it. The
Sooners dominated Nebraska everywhere but the scoreboard and were
ultimately done in by FIVE Landry Jones interceptions. Talk about being
in the wrong place at the wrong time – enter Texas A&M. It’s not like
Norman has ever been a roll in the hay for the Aggies as they have been
outscored 237-60 in their fi ve meetings since Stoops took over the OU
helm. Now they must face him off a loss. Ouch! The Sooners’ HC is 16-1
SU off a loss, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS of late, versus an opponent
he beat in the previous meeting (that ATS number tightens to a perfect
6-0 if the line was less than 21 points). The Aggies, themselves, have
failed as conference road dogs of 14 or more points checking in with
a 2-9 ATS log. To make matters worse for the outclassed visitors: since
1996, A&M is 0-11 ATS when they lose SU as a dog versus an opponent
off a SU loss. Keep the women and children at home as this one could
get downright ugly.

AIR FORCE over Unlv by 21
If common opponents are a factor in handicapping games, then look no further
than each team’s matchup with Colorado State. While both won by almost
identical scores, the Falcons outgained the Rams by 115 yards while the Rebels
were outstatted by over 100. Series history also tells us that the Falcons should
have their way in this Mountain West clash as the visitors have been throttled
in their last three trips to Falcon Stadium by an average score of 32-9. With the
hosts holding three of their last four opponents to season low – or 2nd low –
yardage, and HC Troy Calhoun a perfect 5-0 ATS after facing Military rivals,
we’ll soar with the Flyboys this afternoon at Colorado Springs.

OREGON ST over Washington by 14
Kudos to fi rst-year Washington HC Steve Sarkisian. His Huskies have fought
the good fi ght in 2009 but it’s doubtful they can sweep their fi nal three games
to become bowl-eligible. Even so, the early-season upset of USC and several
hard-fought, narrow losses have all but banished the remnants of last year’s
disastrous 0-12 campaign. The sled dogs face a tough challenge here against
a Beaver bunch that’s gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their last fi ve games (lone loss
by 6 points at USC). OSU has also cashed fi ve straight in the series and boasts
a superb 9-1 ATS log when battling .400 or less opposition. The fi nal nail in
U-Dub’s coffi n? After outyarding LSU in the season opener, Washington has lost
the stat battle in eight consecutive games. Oregon State is 6-1 ATS off a SU dog
win and even though head coach Mike Riley balked at the notion of naming his
direct-snap-to-the-running-back offensive set the ‘Wild Beaver’, we’ll still put
our cash on the fl at-tailed rodents.

Florida over S CAROLINA by 10
Let’s get this out of the way right now. Florida QB Tim Tebow should not be
in the running for this year’s Heisman Trophy. That award should go to the
best individual player in college football (our vote goes to Houston QB Case
Keenum) and right now Florida’s DEFENSE is the reason the Gators continue
to hang onto the top spot in the BCS Rankings. Florida’s offense has struggled
against the SEC’s better defensive teams and South Carolina falls into that
category, allowing just 20.4 PPG. Then, of course, there’s the history between
current SC coach and former Florida coach Steve Spurrier. The Visored One
has nothing but good things to say about the Gator program but you know
deep down he would love to be the one who knocks them off the college
football throne. He’s certainly got a revenge motive going for today’s game
after UF ripped the Gamecocks by scores of 56-6 and 51-31 the previous two
years. Spurrier is carrying a few edges under his hat: he’s 27-20 SU versus an
undefeated foe, 9-3 ATS as a dog of 13 or more points and 7-0 ATS taking
double digits from an unbeaten opponent. Florida’s numbers aren’t quite
as convincing. The reptiles are just 1-4 ATS playing an SEC foe before a nonconference
home game and they’re a weak 3-7 ATS as conference road chalk
of 14 or more points. Florida’s biggest problem is they happen to be a goagainst
proposition courtesy of this week’s SMART BOX and you know we
seldom ignore such advice. Look for the Cocks to stand tall today and improve
the series host’s record to 6-2 ATS.

Alabama over MISSISSIPPI ST by 8
Wow… Alabama’s all-out war against LSU last week was one of the most
physically demanding games we’ve seen all season. That statement sets
the stage for the ‘Scary Thought of the Day’ if you’re a Crimson Tide fan:
since 2005, lined teams after facing LSU are 25-26 SU and 20-30-1 ATS in
their next game (4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS this season). When facing a rested
opponent in these games – like MSU today – they plummet to just 2-7 SU
and ATS. Alabama’s history doesn’t help here since they’re a weak 4-10 ATS
after battling the Bayou Bengals. The Tide is also a SMART BOX fade this
week and we love hearing that. The Bulldogs have more than their share of
pointspread support for today’s matchup. They’re 5-1 ATS home with rest,
4-1 ATS as DD home dogs and 8-3 ATS off a conference dog win. In addition,
head coach Dan Mullen had forged a strong 3-0 ATS mark when facing foes
off back-to-back wins. Bama will need to bring its ‘A’ game here if they want
to avoid the upset… which is just another way of saying we’ll pocket the
generous points.

Southern Miss over MARSHALL by 1
We’ve got good news and bad news for you Southern Miss backers. First, the
good news: USM fi elds one of the more balanced offensive units in the country,
averaging over 200 YPG both rushing and passing. The bad news? Teams after
facing Kevin Sumlin’s Houston Cougar attack are just 2-8 SU and 3-6 ATS away
in their next game. Those numbers fi t nicely with Marshall’s profi table 9-3-1
ATS record as home dogs versus .500 or greater opposition. Even better, the
Herd would be perfect at home this season were it not for a slim 4-point loss
to East Carolina. With both teams sitting at 5-4, the winner walks away with
the possibility of a bowl invitation – which would be Marshall’s fi rst since 2004.
Herd coach Mark Snyder has yet to beat the Golden Eagles at Huntington so
look for an all-out effort from his team today.

Miami Fla over N CAROLINA by 1
Great job this season by Canes head coach Randy Shannon. After a 12-13
start in his fi rst two years, the Miami boss has found the winning formula in
2009, fi elding a 7-2 squad that could very like close the regular season at 10-2.
North Carolina opened 2009 ranked #20 in the preseason polls but it’s been
a monumental struggle for UNC’s offense (averaging just 15.2 PPG against
ACC opposition). That struggle won’t get any easier following the loss of
star RB Shaun Draughn to a season-ending shoulder injury last week against
Duke. Fortunately for the Chapel Hillers, Carolina owns the No. 5 overall
defense in the land, allowing just 250 YPG, and will lean heavily on that unit
to contain an explosive Miami attack led by heady QB Jacory Harris. From
an ATS standpoint, our database favors the home dog Heels. The Hurricanes
own a dismal 1-7 ATS mark as ACC road chalk of 7 or less points and they’re
just 2-6 ATS away from home off a DD conference home win. Meanwhile,
Carolina checks in with a super 10-1 ATS log when wearing the dog collar
versus a conference foe at Kenan Stadium. The Canes want revenge from a
discouraging 4-point loss in south Florida last year; we think they’ll get it but
the Heels will get the cash.

OKLAHOMA ST over Texas Tech by 6
Battle between a pair of Big 12 contenders that will certainly land a bowl
bid by season’s end – and whose records would both be one win greater
had they not taken on the Houston Cougars. Following their 45-35 loss to
the Coogs on September 12th, the Cowboys only other defeat came at the
hands of powerful Texas. They also recovered from the disappointing news
of WR Dez Bryant’s season suspension by thumping Iowa State on the road
last week, 34-8. The Red Raiders have continued their recent tradition of
fi elding a high-scoring offensive machine, averaging 40.2 PPG and 474 yards.
However, the pointspread gods may not smile upon Mike Leach’s team in this
matchup. Texas Tech has dumped fi ve games in a row both SU and ATS when
playing its fi nal road game of the season. The Raiders are also a paltry 1-4 ATS
playing way from Lubbock with rest and have cashed just once in their last fi ve
opportunities as road pups of 8 or fewer points. Okie State looks to fare much
better, standing 4-1 ATS at home versus a rested opponent and 6-2 SU and ATS
at home off a previous home loss. It won’t be easy but we’re saddling up with
the Stillwater pokes here.

4* BEST BET
TCU over Utah by 3
Earlier this season we reported on Marc Lawrence’s AGAINST THE
SPREAD radio show that a prominent TCU booster had told us coach
Gary Patterson thought this could be his best Horned Frog team EVER
in his eight-year stint at Fort Worth. Boy, he sure wasn’t kidding! Sitting
at position #4 in this week’s BCS Standings, the Froggies have absolutely
demolished all comers over the past four weeks, winning by an average
score of 45-6. Even though TCU’s ferocious defense gets most of the ink
(holding foes to 240 yard and 11 points per game), QB Andy Dalton has
steered the offense to a healthy 458 YPG average. But this is where the
purple frog lovefest comes to an end. The all-but-forgotten Utes are 8-1
this season and own fi ve wins in six meetings with TCU, the only loss
coming by a mere 3 points. Utah has cashed three straight in the series,
owns a 5-0 ATS mark as conference dogs taking on a team with revenge
and boasts a sterling 10-1 ATS log as pups of 7 or more points – including
16-3 ATS as dogs if .750 or greater versus a .600 or greater adversary.
Whew! Our database adds more fuel to the frog-leg fi re with this little
beauty: undefeated favorites off a SU and ATS win are a mere 3-15 ATS
versus a winning team of a win that was undefeated during the regular
season last year. We’ll polish it off with the fact that TCU is just 2-6 versus
the number off a SU road win of 21 or more points. Frogs will be seeing
red today as the Utes run away with the green.

GEORGIA over Auburn by 3
Just when the Auburn naysayers were starting to growl loudly, the Tigers quieted
them with an impressive 33-20 home win over Ole Miss. After following up that
crucial victory with a 63-31 pounding of Furman, Aubbie leaps back into the
SEC fray against a team they haven’t beaten in three straight years, Georgia.
Sitting at a very un-Mark Richt-like 5-4, the Dawgs must win today or beat
either Kentucky or Georgia Tech to keep maintain their head coach’s streak of
eight consecutive bowl appearances. Unfortunately for UGA, the Dawgs are a
miserable 1-9 ATS in their last 10 chances are regular season chalk. They’ve also
failed to cover a single lined contest between the hedges in 2009 (2-1 SU, O-3
ATS). The Tigers bring a double-deuce offense (230 yards rushing and 220 yards
passing) into this game and seem to be playing with much more passion and
intensity than the struggling Dawgs. Grab the points.

Houston over C FLORIDA by 3
We’ve made no secret of our admiration for the exploits of Houston QB Case
Keenum but we have little or no affection for the Cougars’ horrid defense.
Giving up 470 yards and 30 points per game, Kevin Sumlin’s stop unit is so
downright leaky the coach may need to requisition a fresh supply of Depends to
fi nish out the year. Most discouraging is that Houston has allowed season high –
or 2nd high – yards in fi ve of its last six games. Enter the Knights of UCF, owners
of a defense that’s 114 yards better than today’s opponent. And even if they
fail to bag the SU win today (the series host has won and covered the last two
meetings), George O’Leary’s team can qualify for postseason play by dispatching
woeful Tulane the following week. The bottom line here is we simply can’t trust
road chalk with such a horrible defense… even if it’s our top candidate for Player
of the Year. This just in: UCF starting QB Brett Hodges and RB Brynn Harvey will
be back this week after missing last Saturday’s contest with Texas.

LSU over La Tech by 21
As mentioned earlier, last week’s LSU-Alabama game was a brutal and exhausting
affair. But perhaps worse than letting the contest slip away in the 4th quarter
was LSU’s loss of star RB Charles Scott for the remainder of the season. If you’re
looking for a scheduling fl at spot in which to fade the Tigers, you couldn’t ask
for much more than this. Les Miles must somehow motivate his team to get
up for an inferior foe when monster SEC revenge games against Ole Miss and
Arkansas loom on the horizon. Lousy numbers abound on both sides here: the
Ruston Bulldogs are just 1-10 ATS as non-conference road dogs of 21 or more
points while LSU stands 1-8 ATS playing Game Ten at Baton Rouge and 2-6 ATS
after tackling the Tide. The deciding factor is we want no part of a potentially
disinterested favorite laying over three TDs to an intrastate rival.

SAN DIEGO ST over Wyoming by 6
Woe be unto Wyoming… three straight losses by a combined score of 84-10.
But when you consider that those defeats came against heavyweights Air Force,
Utah and BYU, the possibility of the Cowboys hanging close today may not be
so far-fetched. However, our ATS archives don’t agree with that observation.
Wyoming has been lassoed in six consecutive trips to sunny San Diego and the
sun-worshippers own a golden 5-1 ATS record when playing their Last Home
Game. The Cowboys have been blanked three times this season (two of their
last three games) and have wasted a 4-2 start. Not for us.

HAWAII over New Mexico St by 17
Sometimes it takes only a few words to motivate a troubled team. Case in
point: the Hawaii Warriors. The Honolulu Police Department reported several
weeks ago on a purported incident of a “suspicious, unknown, white powdery
substance on the UH football practice fi eld,” that led to suspension of practice
and an FBI investigation. The report concluded: “After a complete fi eld analysis,
the FBI determined that the white substance unknown to the players was the
goal line. Practice was resumed when the FBI decided that the team would
not be likely to encounter the substance again.” Needless to say, head coach
Greg McMakin and his players were not amused by the prank and responded
by toppling favored Utah State, 49-36 – Hawaii’s biggest scoring output of the
season. The Warriors gained 697 yards in than win and may be ready to close
out with a bang (need four wins in fi nal four games to go bowling for a fourth
straight year). Meanwhile, the invading Aggies have passed for less than 100
yards in seven of their last eight games (including the last four in a row) and
have been outstatted by a mind-boggling average of 310 YPG in their last four
contests. The linemaker took one look at this mess and tabbed Hawaii as a
whopping 18-point favorite, just the second time all season UH has been chalk.
Look elsewher

ADDED GAMES

FLA ATLANTIC over Arkansas St by 3
With both squads carrying identical 2-6 records into today’s matchup, the loser
will be automatically eliminated from postseason play. Even worse for Howie,
all-everything QB Rusty Smith is out for the remainder of 2009. However, the
Owls look like the side to hoot for today. FAU owns a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record
off a double-digit loss against a sub .500 opponent and the Boys from Boca are
5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing with conference revenge. In stark contrast,
the Red Wolves lope into Florida with an 0-11 ATS mark versus a foe seeking
revenge. We sure don’t want any of that…

LA-MONROE over W Kentucky by 21
Well, it was bound to happen. Winless on the season at 0-9 and basically noncompetitive,
Western Kentucky offi cially kicked 7th-year head coach David Elson
to the curb. And despite Elson’s 2-19 SU ledger since WKU hit the Big Board last
season, he’ll be allowed to fi nish out the season with the HillFloppers. You’d
think that with Western’s awful 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record away this season that
we’d be all over a Monroe blowout but a pair of season-ending revengers up
next will likely hold more interest than a visit from WKU. Next, please.

ARKANSAS over Troy by 10
Led by 6-7 QB Ryan Mallett, the Hogs own one of the nation’s most dynamic
offenses and look like a legitimate SEC contender. However, this is not the
ideal week to risk your money of the Razorbacks. Not only are they smack in
the middle of a tough SEC revenge sandwich, they’re also winless against the
number in their last four tries versus a non-conference foe after facing South
Carolina. The Trojans are 1-10 SU but 8-3 ATS versus the SEC, including 7-0 ATS
when their opponent comes in off a spread win. Troy has won seven straight
games after a 0-2 opening, so color them dangerous today.

FIU over North Texas by 3
We like Mario Cristobal and think he has the Golden Panthers heading in the
right direction. He won’t need heavy artillery to take down this week’s opponent
but he will need a healthy Paul McCall. The senior QB missed last week’s game
and the FIU passing attack could only muster 68 yards. With McCall still listed as
questionable for this one and the Panthers just 1-5 ATS as home favorites versus
an opponent off a loss, we’ll pass for now – especially with North Texas a lean
3-10 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points with revenge.

MID TENN ST over La-Lafayette by 13
The Ragin’ Cajuns have had their way with the Blue Raiders of late having
won fi ve of six SU, including the last three on this fi eld, and they may need to
pull off another big upset of the Raiders if they want to keep their faint bowl
hopes alive. You can bet that Rick Stockstill’s bunch will be looking to turn the
tables this season as it was the Cajuns who beat them in the 2008 season-ender,
denying them of a sixth win and a potential bowl berth. We’ll bow out.

Sunday, November 15

TULSA over East Carolina by 7
It’s probably a good thing the Golden Hurricane have an extra day off after
their brutal 46-45 loss to the Cougars in which they allowed two scores in the
fi nal 21 seconds. That was their 3rd straight home loss and they’ll be eager
to make amends and look to keep their slim bowl hopes alive. They’ll also be
looking to avenge last season’s Conference USA title game defeat when the
Pirates upset them as 12.5-point dogs on this fi eld. Keep an eye on the line as
our database points out that the Pirates are a powerful 15-3 ATS as road dogs
of 6 or less points. The closing line will most likely dictate our play.

Thursday, November 12

SAN FRANCISCO over Chicago by 3
Would love to dig in deep and fade a bad bunch of Bears who are 1-3 SU and
ATS in games this season after their Bye Week. The problem, though, is the
Niners are not in prime condition to do anything about it. Frisco has dropped
four games in a row and is just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points
under Mike Singletary. Yes, Chicago is 1-9 ATS as a dog versus an opponent off
a SU favorite loss and 0-6 SU and ATS in its last six games on this fi eld but we’ll
let the 49ers snap their losing skid on their own.

Denver over WASHINGTON by 3
The Broncos take to the road off Monday night’s disappointing tussle with the
Steelers knowing that teams who squared off against Mike Tomlin’s troops
have really struggled in their next game, especially when taking on losing
teams. That’s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this role are a paltry 2-14 ATS.
Making matters worse is the fact that Denver is just 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS in
games before skirmishing with San Diego, including 2-10 SU and ATS in nondivision
games. While the Skins have certainly had their troubles this season,
the fact remains their defense is solid (ranked No. 5 in the league) and they
are an eye-popping 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as non-division home dogs with a
losing record from Game Eight out. Hold your nose and play the Porkers.

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 7
Battle for top spot in the AFC North fi nds Steelers looking to avenge a 23-20
loss suffered in the Queen City in late September this season. In that contest
Pittsburgh outgained Cincy by 100 yards while holding the Bengals to a season
low 273 yards. The defending champs are a spotless 7-0 ATS as November
favorites against an opponent off a double-digit spread win and also 6-1 ATS
with revenge during Turkey month against opponents off a SU underdog win.
The Bengals acquiesce with a putrid 2-15 ATS mark as road dogs against .500 or
greater division foes off a win and a 1-6 SU and ATS road log in games off backto-
back upset wins. Just when it looks like we’re about to open the checkbook,
we’re reminded that the Black-and-Gold is a check-bouncing 1-10 ATS versus
.700 or greater AFC opposition. Hold that check.

TENNESSEE over Buffalo by 3
What a difference a week of rest and a Young quarterback makes. After his
insertion into the starting lineup, Vince Young has led the Titans to a pair of
wins and covers following their Bye Week as they have gone fro the dregs of
the AFC South to the team no one wants to play these days. Enter the Bills,
off a Bye Week themselves after having been outgained by an average 200 YPG
in their last three games. Buffalo has had a propensity for playing it close to
the vest in this series, however, with the last four games being decided by a
total of 12 points. The Bills also own the better defense (if you can believe it).
With Tennessee just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six tries as a favorite, we’ll opt
for the points.

MINNESOTA over Detroit by 10
When Purple-4 takes on the Lions in the Metrodome this Sunday, he’ll assume a
role he’s conquered only once in 17 tries as a starting quarterback in this league
(see this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 for details). Add to the mix that
division home favorites of 13 or more with a week of rest have gone just 4-10-1
ATS and our sights are suddenly set on the Lions. Detroit brings a splendid 12-1
ATS mark as a division dog off back-to-back losses against an opponent off a
division game into this contest. Wrap it up with the fact that teams that won
zero or one game last season being 25-15-1 ATS and we suddenly have a ‘mane’
play. Lions roar.

New Orleans over ST. LOUIS by 10
You know it’s coming. It’s just a matter of when and against whom. The Saints
are going down. Will it be this week? Not likely. Next week at Tampa? Highly
improbable. Three weeks from now at home against New England? Probably.
In the interim, though, there are still tickets to be cashed and this week’s is one
of them. New Orleans takes on the lowly Rams sporting a sickly 1-8 SU and 0-9
ATS mark in games after scoring 28 or more points in back-to-back games when
facing a sub .500 foe. They are also just 3-11 ATS laying double-digits. While
St. Louis lacks style points, they are a home dog taking six or more points with
a week of rest. We point that out because teams in this role are 33-11 ATS.
Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking. Tick. Tick. Tick…

MIAMI over Tampa Bay by 7
Kudos to Josh Freeman and the Bucs on entering the win column for the fi rst
time this season with last week’s 10-point decision over the Packers. For what it’s
worth, winless teams (0-6 or worse) off their fi rst victory of the season are 5-0
ATS in their next game over the last fi ve years. In addition, Tampa Bay is 12-1
ATS on the November road versus an opponent off a division game. That ties
nicely into the Dolphins’ 0-6 ATS mark when laying seven or more points and
Tony Sparano’s 0-6 ATS career mark against teams from the NFC. Miami’s 1-12
ATS mark as a favorite off a loss clinches it. No joshing here. Grab the points.

Kansas City over OAKLAND by 3
It’s not that hard to fi gure. Dress the Raiders up as favorites and let the fun
begin. That’s because they are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS laying wood. Thus it’s
no surprise to learn they are 1-9 ATS as chalk off a division loss and 1-9 ATS as
November favorites off a division game when facing a losing opponent. The
Chiefs check in with a 6-0 ATS log on this fi eld and the dog in this series has
barked seven times in a row. Does Oakland drop to 1-11 ATS as a favorite
against losing teams in the fi rst of back-to-back home games here today? What
do you think!

ARIZONA over Seattle by 13
Both of these division rivals bounced back off the mat with impressive victories
last week. Today one will return to its losing ways; the other to its winning ways.
Since Seattle is just 1-8 SU and ATS in games off a win, our educated guess is that
the Cardinals head north while the Seahawks fl y south here today. The numbers
support them, too. Arizona is 8-1 SU and ATS at home against an opponent off
a double-digit win under Ken Whisenhunt. Seattle seals the deal at 0-7 ATS away
versus .500 or greater opposition off a double-digit win. Like traffi c all headed in
the same direction, there’s only one-way to look here today.

Philadelphia over SAN DIEGO by 3
It’s in games like this that the Eagles soar. Namely when taking to the road
(their comfort zone) off an embarrassing performance. It’s when Andy Reid is
at his best as he is 23-9 ATS away off a loss, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if
his team covered the number by 35 or more points in the game prior to the
defeat. It’s also where they are 5-0 ATS as a dog in games against an opponent
off a SU underdog win. Yes, Andy is just dandy in this role. To top it off, Philly
is also 7-0-1 ATS as road dogs of less than seven points when playing off a SU
division loss as a home favorite. The Chargers comply at 1-6 ATS in regular
season games off a SU underdog win. Andy gets the candy.

New England over INDIANAPOLIS by 3
What can be said that hasn’t already been said? A matchup of two Hall of Fame
quarterbacks takes center stage Sunday night when Peyton Manning hosts Tom
Brady in the NFL’s top game of the season – with Favre and the Packers right
there, too. Here is the ‘Tale of the Tape’ between the two QB’s. Brady: 107-28 SU
and 80-51-4 ATS, including 23-12 SU and 22-10-1 ATS when not laying points.
Mr. GQ is also 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS against the Colts, but only 1-3 SU and 0-4
ATS the last four meetings. Manning: 106-43 SU and 75-71-3 ATS, including
35-39 ATS as home chalk. Eli’s brother is also 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS versus the
Patriots, but 4-1 SU and ATS the last fi ve games. Where to we go from here,
you ask? Try Bill Belichick who, in his NFL career as a head coach is 16-7 SU and
15-8 ATS against undefeated opposition, including 7-1 ATS when taking points.
New England’s 15-1 ATS mark at Indianapolis as a dog or favorite of fi ve or less
points cements it. Say goodbye to another perfect season, Peyton.

Monday, November 16

Baltimore over CLEVELAND by 10
What did NFL viewers do to deserve this train wreck? We’re sure that at the
time the league scheduled this Monday Night mess it had some appeal. You
know, the Browns hosting the team that Art Modell ran off with like an illegal
at a stop-search. Just be glad you’re not Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworwski and Jon
Gruden. They’ll need to dig deep to fi nd entertaining fodder for this three-anda-
half-hour siesta. Maybe they can discuss the fact that the Ravens are 8-1 SU
and 9-0 ATS in games versus an opponent off a loss under John Harbaugh. Or
perhaps the thought that the Browns are 4-0-1 ATS in their expansion history
as home dogs with revenge after scoring six or fewer points. The bottom line,
though, is – like St. Louis this week – Cleveland is a home dog taking six or more
points with a week of rest, a role that is 33-11 ATS. With double-digit Monday
Night home dogs on a 4-0 ATS run the last four years (and as perverse as it
sounds), the Browns look to be the right side of this contest. Good luck.

3* BEST BET
NY JETS over Jacksonville by 15
The Flyboys return to the gridiron after a week of rest looking frantically
to return to their early season form. The history book contends they
should, as the Jets are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in games off a Bye Week.
They are also 6-0 ATS against AFC South opposition off a win. The Jags
oblige with a 0-6 ATS mark on the November road when playing off a
win against a foe off a loss. The clincher comes from our PLAYBOOK.com
database as it tells us to: Play On any 4-4 team in Game Nine of the season
off one loss exact versus a .500 or greater opponent. That’s because these
teams are 12-3 ATS, including 6-0 ATS if they were favored in the loss.
Behind the league’s 3rd ranked defense, it’s a fl y-bye in the Big Apple.
NY JETS over Jacksonville by 15

The Flyboys return to the gridiron after a week of rest looking frantically
to return to their early season form. The history book contends they
should, as the Jets are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in games off a Bye Week.
They are also 6-0 ATS against AFC South opposition off a win. The Jags
oblige with a 0-6 ATS mark on the November road when playing off a
win against a foe off a loss. The clincher comes from our PLAYBOOK.com
database as it tells us to: Play On any 4-4 team in Game Nine of the season
off one loss exact versus a .500 or greater opponent. That’s because these
teams are 12-3 ATS, including 6-0 ATS if they were favored in the loss.
Behind the league’s 3rd ranked defense, it’s a fl y-bye in the Big Apple.

4* BEST BET
CAROLINA over Atlanta by 10
What would a week in the NFL be without a call on our favorite team?
The Panthers were on the prowl once again last week when they put an
early scare into the Saints before yielding late. This week they host NFC
South rival Atlanta while owning a sterling 7-1 ATS mark at home with
division revenge off a double-digit loss. More importantly, they bring the
better defense (64 YPG) and the better ground game (rushed for 835
yards last four games) into this contest. Those are valuable commodities
for divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, Carolina is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS as
a dog off one loss exact under John Fox, including 6-0 SU and ATS when
taking four or less points. After last year’s surprise season, the Falcons are
1-3 SU on the road this campaign. You know what to do.

5* BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Dallas by 10
Welcome to ‘NFL 180’. That’s what we have here, folks, as both the
Packers and Cowboys change roles off disparate results last week. Green
Bay laid an egg as double-digit road chalk while the Cowboys pulled an
upset as road dogs, thus setting up this juicy encounter. It doesn’t occur
often but when it does it’s special as NFL home dogs off a SU favorite
loss taking on an opponent off a SU underdog win are 6-1 SU and 6-0-1
ATS when facing an opponent that is off back-to-back SU and ATS wins
since 1982. Adding to the mix, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS as a non-division
home dog of three or more points versus an opponent off a SU and ATS
win. Dallas adds fuel to the mix too, as the Cowboys are just 5-18 SU and
6-17 ATS on the road in games off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when
facing a .500 or greater foe. Toss in the Packers 10-1-1 ATS mark as dogs
off back-to-back spread losses against fellow NFC opponents and another
live dog makes an appearance on the weekly ‘As The NFL Turns’ Sunday
segment.