RED SHEET
OREGON 55 - Arizona State 24 - (10:30 EST) -- Line opened at Oregon minus 16, and is now minus 17.
Duck loss to Stanford dropped them 7 & 8 notches in the polls, & that's ridiculous, in light of
the fact that they rolled for 236 RYs & 334 PYs. And that on the heels of compiling 47 pts, 31
FDs, 391 RYs, & 613 TYs while hosting USC. That's right nearly impossible to contain,
behind the brilliance of Masoli & James. And they own the Devils, with a RY edge of 1,061-
412 in their past 4 meetings with ArizonaSt. Fact is OU is +98 pts ATS in its last 7 games,
including that 30-pt cover vs USC. Have to see bouncebacker in style.
RATING: OREGON 89
OHIO STATE 38 - Iowa 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 13, and is now minus 15½. Can't get 2
teams off more emotionally opposite extremes than these 2. Bucks have obviously shedded
their mid-season doldrums, especially in anemic stat effort vs Wisconsin, when they managed
only 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs. Brilliant display at PennSt, as they held the always
explosive Lions to 7 pts (none over the final 42½ minutes), 9 FDs, 76 RYs, & 201 PYs.
Thus, they've disposed of their last 3 opponents by a combined 107-14 score. The Hawkeyes
deflated, off snapping of 13-game run, QB Sanzi is hurting, & they can't run.
RATING: OHIO STATE 89
HAWAII 52 - New Mexico State 10 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 18½, and is now minus 18. What
a difference a QB makes, as the 'Bows were stung by the injury bug in that most crucial of
positions, for most of the season. But the return of Moniz has resulted in a pair of impressive
spread showings (18 & 15 pts), while snapping their 6-game slide with that 49-pt explosion
vs UtahSt. He has thrown for 374 & 337 yds, along with 3 & 4 TDs in those two, and
check a totally foreign 360 RYs this past week (9.7 ypr). The Aggies are allowing 35.2 ppg
over their last 31 games with a 124-10 pt deficit in their last 3 games.
RATING: HAWAII 89
WISCONSIN 40 - Michigan 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 9, and is now minus 9½. We
originally had this one as our Top Play, but the status of RB Clay tables it for now, altho he is
expected to go. But make no mistake, this Badger squad is a quality outfit, and has inched
its way into the polls, at #20 & #21. And Wisconsin is again doing it overland, which has
become their staple through the recent years. Check a 560-123 RY edge the past 2 weeks.
The Wolves have fallen apart. Five straight league losses (only 4 pts from an 0-6 Big10
record). Lost last RG by 42 pts ATS. And Badgers super in home finales.
RATING: WISCONSIN 88
Byu 60 - NEW MEXICO 13 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Byu minus 27, and is still minus 27. If it weren't for such
pesky opponents as Oklahoma & TCU, the Cougars would be averaging 44 ppg. Seem
nearly unstoppable at times, behind the leadership of QB Hall, who is in off blitzing Wyoming
for 318 PYs & 4 TDs, with just 2 incompletions in 24 attempts. By the way, the Cowboys
entered that one on a 5-game spread run, before going down by 39 pts ATS to the Coogs.
The Lobos bring a 13-game losing streak into this contest, & have been outscored by a
329-138 count this season. The 4-TD spot in this shouldn't scare anyone.
RATING: BYU 88
MIAMI 31 - Tampa Bay 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 9½, and is still minus 9½. Originally, we
called for just a 5-pt Dolphin edge in this contest, as Miami was in off no less than seven
straight emotional contests, with the added baggage of being pegged as a favorite for the
only time all season. And if anyone is interested, Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS in that
situation of late. But respected sources have assured us that the Fish will be more than
ready here. Not only are they taking on a fellow Sunshine State opponent, but their 4th
ranked rushing "O" should have little trouble with the Bay's 30th ranked rushing "D".
RATING: MIAMI DOLPHINS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): KansasSt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn - NFL: KC, NYJets, Cleveland
LOGICAL APPROACH
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Notre Dame + 7 over PITTSBURGH - The heat is on Notre Dame coach Weis whose job was thought to be in jeopardy if the Irish did not win at least 9 game. One more loss and that cannot occur and the program is at a low point after losing to Navy at home for the second straight time. Pitt has had a very solid season and could make a BCS Bowl by winning the Big East. But their two toughest conference games are up next, after a week of rest. Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule and has the talent to not just compete with Pitt but to also pull the upset. Notre Dame has either won or stayed within a TD of Pitt in each of their 6 meetings dating back to 2001. Although a game against Notre Dame is generally a key contest, Pitt has its sights set on a loftier prize and may be caught off guard by what will be an inspired and intense effort from the Irish as QB Clausen has a big game. Notre Dame wins 34-27.
Other Featured College Selections
WISCONSIN - 8 over Michigan - Michigan's promising 4-0 start has turned ugly as the Wolverines have now lost 5 of 6 and need a win here or over arch rival Ohio State to become Bowl eligible. Wisconsin was flat in last week's win over Indiana that followed their signature win over Purdue, 37-0, a week earlier. Purdue upset Michigan last week, rallying from behind against what has been a very weak Michigan defense that has been ineffective against both the run and the pass. The Michigan offense has also lacked consistency since their fast start. In coach Rodriguez' second season we are seeing the lack of depth needed for his style of play and that plays into the strength of a very physical Wisconsin team that is fundamentally sound. Wisky has rushed for over 250 yards 4 times. Wisconsin wears down the Michigan defense. Wisconsin wins 33-17.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE + 8 ½ over Clemson - Clemson is rolling towards their first ACC Title game and controls their own fate. They may be better than their 6-3 record as their losses have been by 3, 4 and 3 points. NC State ended a 4 game losing streak with a win over Maryland, one of the teams that defeated Clemson earlier. State has been solid on offense but Clemson has the better defense. Overall the stats are not significantly different. Clemson has controlled the recent series winning 5 straight and 7 of 10. But under former BC coach O'brien State continues to show improvement in his third season. Both teams have star playmakers on offense although Clemson RB Spiller was banged up last week but is probable here. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Clemson as the pressure of an ACC Title mounts. They have lost 2 of their 3 road games and needed OT for their lone road, at Miami. Clemson wins but by just 27-24.
KANSAS + 3 ½ over Nebraska - After starting 5-0 Kansas has dropped 4 in a row. To be fair, 3 of them have been on the road and the fourth was at home to Oklahoma. The Jayhawks play their final home game this week and face a Nebraska team that has been strong on defense all season but has seen their offense regress. Neither team has an impressive win this season although Nebraska did beat Oklahoma 10-3 at home last week despite being outgained 325-180. In Kansas' 35-13 loss to OU the yards were closer, with OU winning that battle 337-305. KU has the better QB but they lack a true running game. Nebraska is playing just their fourth road game and were not impressive in winning at Missouri or Baylor. Two years ago KU routed Nebraska 76-39 on this field which was avenged by the Huskers 45-35 last season in Lincoln. This game should be lower scoring with KU QB Reesing being the difference maker. Kansas wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
West Virginia + 8 ½ over CINCINNATI (Fri)
Northwestern + 5 ½ over ILLINOIS
Iowa + 16 over OHIO STATE
PURDUE + 2 ½ over Michigan State
Florida State + 5 over WAKE FOREST
Tennessee + 4 ½ over MISSISSIPPI
Byu - 27 over NEW MEXICO
MEMPHIS + 1 ½ over Uab
IOWA STATE - 5 over Colorado
Utep + 8 ½ over SMU
CALIFORNIA Pick 'em over Arizona
Missouri - 1 over KANSAS STATE
San Jose State + 12 ½ over UTAH STATE
Fresno State + 7 over NEVADA
Alabama - 11 ½ over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL + 3 over Southern Miss
Utah + 20 over TCU
Auburn + 4 ½ over GEORGIA
Houston - 5 ½ over CENTRAL FLORIDA
FLORIDA ATLANTIC + 3 over Arkansas State
Troy + 14 over ARKANSAS
The Rest (Leans)
Ohio U + 1 ½ over BUFFALO (Tues)
RUTGERS + 1 over South Florida (Thurs)
AKRON + 4 over Temple (Fri)
VIRGINIA + 4 over Boston College
LOUISVILLE - 7 over Syracuse
PENN STATE - 25 ½ over Indiana
DUKE + 12 ½ over Georgia Tech
Kentucky - 3 over VANDERBILT
BAYLOR + 23 ½ over Texas
MARYLAND + 17 ½ over Virginia Tech
West. Michigan - 11 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WASHINGTON STATE + 18 over Ucla
BOISE STATE - 31 ½ over Idaho
USC - 10 over Stanford
OREGON - 17 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA - 20 ½ over Texas A&M
RICE - 2 ½ over Tulane
AIR FORCE - 17 over Unlv
OREGON STATE - 12 over Washington
Florida - 15 ½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
Miami Fla - 3 over NORTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA STATE - 3 ½ over Texas Tech
Louisiana Tech + 24 ½ over LSU
SAN DIEGO STATE - 7 over Wyoming
HAWAII - 20 ½ over New Mexico State
UL MONROE - 20 ½ over Western Kentucky
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - 2 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over UL Lafayette
TULSA - 5 ½ over East Carolina (Sun)
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY + 3 over Dallas - The Packers have to be embarrassed after being the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season. The offensive line continues to struggled to protect QB Rodgers who's now been sacked 37 times. Ouch. Dallas is playing well and got a key Divisional win Sunday night in Philly. They have another Divisional game on deck against Washington. This is a classic letdown spot for the Cowboys and a solid spot for the Packers to show they are more of a good team than a bad one. Defensively the Pack is allowing 293 ypg (# 4), nearly 60 ypg fewer than Dallas. The Cowboys are a solid but flawed team and after 4 strong efforts a sub-par effort can be expected, especially in the second of two straight road games. Green Bay is a better team than they've shown in their past 2 games and have the talent, on both sides of the ball, to reverse their recent slide. Green Bay wins 27-24.
Other Featured NFL Selections
N Y JETS - 6 ½ over Jacksonville - The Jets are rested and have several key fundamental edges over Jacksonville. They have a better running game and play better rush defense. They have the better overall defense and the better turnover margin. All 4 of their wins have been by at least a TD. They have a tough game at New England next week so they cannot afford to let this winnable game get away. Off of their Divisional loss to Miami and with the week of rest the Jets should not be looking ahead. Their defense is # 2 in the league (273 ypg) and # 4 in points allowed (16.8 per game). Jacksonville is being outscored on the road by 13 points per game. The Jags do have a solid running game but the Jets allow a league low 4.61 yards per play. The Jets have also played an overall tougher schedule. N Y Jets win 27-13.
CAROLINA + 1 over Atlanta - These are two evenly matched teams although Atlanta is enjoying the better season. Carolina's running game has emerged, averaging 208 yards per game over the last 4 games after averaging just 97 ypg in their first 4 contest. That's been an area in which Atlanta has struggled recently on defense, although their own rushing offense has been effective. Atlanta won the earlier meeting 28-20 despite being outgained by the Panthers. A win here draws the Panthers to within a game of Atlanta for second place in the NFC South and gives them a shot at making a run for a Wild Card. Carolina has the better defensive stats, especially vs the pass and QB Delhomme seems to have settled down in recent weeks as the ground game has limited his opportunities for mistakes. Their better defense is the key. Carolina wins 24-20.
Philadelphia + 2 ½ over SAN DIEGO - This still has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview although neither team leads their Division nor is a shoo-in for the Playoffs. But both teams are talented on both sides of the football. Both have defeated the Giants over the past two weeks with Philly's win the more impressive but also coming at home. The Eagles are off of Sunday night's loss to Dallas. San Diego's consistent lack of a running game plays into a strength of the Philly defense, making the visitors attractive underdogs. Despite their shocking loss in Oakland Philly has been a solid road team under coach Reid and they've won their other 2 road games this season. Similarly, San Diego has been vulnerable at home, losing to Denver and Baltimore already this season. Philly has shown the better rushing offense and rushing defense, usually the key to being able to dictate the flow of a game. The minor upset is no surprise. Philadelphia wins 30-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations )
TENNESSEE - 6 ½ over Buffalo
ST LOUIS + 13 ½ over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 ½ over Kansas City
New England + 3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Rest (Opinions)
WASHINGTON + 4 over Denver
PITTSBURGH - 7 over Cincinnati
Detroit + 17 over MINNESOTA
MIAMI - 9 ½ over Tampa Bay
Seattle + 8 ½ over ARIZONA
Baltimore - 11 over CLEVELAND (Monday)
Byes -- Houston N Y Giants
Best of the NFL Totals
Denver/Washington UNDER 36 ½
Buffalo/Tennessee OVER 41
Tampa Bay/Miami UNDER 44
Kansas City/Oakland UNDER 36 ½
Seattle/Arizona OVER 47
Philadelphia/San Diego OVER 47
Dallas/Green Bay OVER 47 ½
New England/Indianapolis OVER 50
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Florida State
KANSAS
Notre Dame
Fresno State
Pro
CAROLINA
Philadelphia
GREEN BAY
New England