Newsletters Nov. 3rd - Nov. 9th

THE GOLD SHEET

JACKSONVILLE 26 - Kansas City 16—Not particularly excited about laying
points with struggling Jacksonville (no covers last 7 as home chalk) and underfire
HC Jack Del Rio. Bt until K.C. displays a bit more competence, it’s even
harder to support Chiefs. Spotty OL play rendering the K.C. ground game
impotent (no rush TD last 34 Qs, plus an OT!) and not providing much
protection for Matt Cassel, reducing chances that Chiefs can take advantage of
listless Jag pass rush and 30th-ranked pass defense. Larry Johnson’s
suspension (any anti-L.J. protests after last week’s remarks should provide an
interesting scene, eh?) certainly no bonus for already-limp K.C. attack.
(07-Jacksonville -2 17-7...SR: Jacksonville 5-2)

CINCINNATI 24 - Baltimore 17—Baltimore regained a bit of its
swagger with last week’s destruction of unbeaten Denver. And Cincy needed
a Carson Palmer 20-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to win at M&T Bank
Stadium Oct. 11. However, note that the underdog has covered all of the
Bengals’ games TY, with Cincy 4-0 SU getting points. That’s enough evidence
to indicate that the 2009 Bengals are for real, as if their 5-2 record, the healthy
Palmer’s 13 TD passes, Cedric Benson’s 720 YR, and their unexpectedly
improved OL were not. Check status of Raven stud DLman Haloti Ngata
(injured last week).
(09-Cincy 17-BALT. 14...C.22-12 C.34/142 B.18/82 C.18/31/1/261 B.22/31/2/175 C.1 B.0)
(08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1)
(08-Balt. 34-CINCY 3...B.20-6 B.41/150 C.16/57 B.20/30/0/304 C.12/33/1/98 B.0 C.0)
(09-Cincy +8' 17-14; 08-BALT. +2 17-10, Balt. -7 34-3...SR: Baltimore 15-12)

INDIANAPOLIS 21 - Houston 17—Indy
progressing into elite territory with its regular-season win streak now at 16 and
Colts within sight of the record 21 in a row set by the Patriots spanning 2006-08.
But last week’s narrow escape vs. 49ers is a reminder that Indy (which had
recently feasted on some flawed foes) has not been not naming the score vs.
quality opposition. The improved 5-3 Texans have tightened the screws
defensively (No. 1 pick LB Brian Cushing a gem), especially vs. the run (last four
foes just 58 ypg). Gary Kubiak might have stumbled upon a nice revelation at
RB after Ryan Moats gained 126 YR in relief of fumble-prone Steve Slaton at
Buffalo. With its improved defense, Houston “under” four of last five TY.
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(08-INDY 33-Hou. 27...I.30-16 H.25/177 I.34/154 I.30/46/0/320 H.13/18/1/179 I.0 H.0)
(08-Indianapolis -3' 31-27, INDIANAPOLIS -8 33-27...SR: Indianapolis 13-1)

ATLANTA 27 - Washington 10—One of the surprises of the first half of the
NFL season is that Dan Snyder has yet to hit the “eject” button on struggling HC
Jim Zorn, who’s instead merely been neutered by being stripped of play-calling
duties. And new playcaller Sherm Lewis has inherited the same problems
(injured OL, inconsistent QBing from Jason Campbell), now compounded by
the loss of go-to TE Cooley. So it’s not likely that Skins will take advantage of
injuries in the Atlanta defense. Matt Ryan & Co. have been extending margins
at Georgia Dome, where Falcs are 3-0 SU and vs. spread TY.
(06-Atlanta +1 24-14...SR: Washington 15-5-1)

Green Bay 27 - TAMPA BAY 9—A few rookie HC/QB combos have
fared well lately in NFL, but the Raheem Morris-Josh Freeman duo in Tampa
Bay isn’t likely to invite comparisons to Jon Harbaugh-Joe Flacco or Mike
Smith-Matt Ryan, or even Rex Ryan-Mark Sanchez. Indeed, the only
comparisons the Bucs (10 straight losses and now the NFL’s last winless team)
are inviting these days are with the recent Lions’ and Rams’ losing streaks. And
it’s worth noting that Freeman becomes the third different starting QB for
Morris, who also changed his offensive coordinator late in the preseason. Dom
Capers’ aggressive Packer defense has a lot less to worry about in Florida after
facing Brett Favre & Vikings last week. T.B. 2-10 vs. spread in its last 12 games.
(08-T. BAY 30-G. Bay 21...T.20-8 T.39/180 G.18/28 G.16/32/3/153 T.15/30/3/149 T.0 G.1)
(08-TAMPA BAY -1' 30-21...SR: Green Bay 30-20-1)

Arizona 23 - CHICAGO 19—Not overly impressed with Chicago’s victory
over lowly Cleveland, as OL gave up four sacks and Jay Cutler tossed another
int. to raise total to 11 vs. 11 TDs. Meanwhile, the ever-gracious Kurt Warner
took charity too far last week, tossing five ints. and losing one fumble in
Arizona’s 34-21 home loss vs. Carolina. It’s not a scoop to say he can play a
lot better. The Cards have covered six straight as an underdog, including wins
in all three road games so far TY (Jacksonville, Seattle, New York Giants). (06-
Chicago -11 24-23...SR: Chicago 55-26-6)

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Miami 19—It was in their visit to Foxborough in Game
Three LY that Miami unleashed its Wildcat formation, with Ronnie Brown
running for four TDs and passing for another vs. the befuddled N.E. defense.
But Bill Bellichick’s charges held the Dolphins to just 62 YR in the rematch. And
last week the Jets successfully overloaded vs. Miami’s run, only to get killed by
Ted Ginn Jr.’s two kickoff return TDs while yielding only 104 total yards. Yes,
the Dolphins can exploit the rebuilding N.E. defense yielding 4.5 ypc. But who
better to exploit Miami’s two rookie CBs than Tom Brady? N.E. has outscored
its last two foes (both then winless—Tenn. & T.B.) 94-7, eased up.
(08-Miami 38-N. ENG. 13...M.23-13 M.36/216 N.18/67 M.18/21/0/245 N.22/35/1/137 M.0 N.1)
(08-N. Eng. 48-MIAMI 28...N.30-23 N.25/122 M.19/62 N.30/43/1/408 M.24/41/1/330 N.1 M.0)
(08-Miami +12' 38-13, New England +1 48-28...SR: Miami 49-38)

NEW ORLEANS 41 - Carolina 17—N.O. went into its Monday night date with
Atlanta having won its first six games by margins of 18, 26, 20, 14, 21, and 12
points, putting 39.7 ppg on the board and tied for the league lead (18) in
takeaways. That’s likely to be bad news for a Carolina team that led the NFL in
giveaways with 21 in its first six games (but none last week). Drew Brees is
giving HC Sean Payton credit for “scheming” to get all of his offensive
headliners involvedy. And kudos is due to a front office that has stopped the
hemorrhaging in recent Saints’ secondaries by adding No. 2 pick CB Tracy
Porter LY, plus free-agent CB Jabari Greer and S Darren Sharper TY. Saints
13-3 “over” in Superdome prior to last Monday.
(08-CAR. 30-N. Orl. 7...C.18-17 C.37/143 N.22/115 N.21/39/1/228 C.14/22/0/193 C.0 N.1)
(08-Car. 33-N. ORL. 31...C.23-22 C.42/234 N.11/50 N.30/49/1/367 C.14/20/0/244 C.0 N.1)
(08-CAROLINA -3 30-7, Carolina -2' 33-31...SR: Carolina 17-11)

SEATTLE 27 - Detroit 13—Seattle was a bit healthier in Dallas after its bye
week, although rock-solid LT Walter Jones and key MLB Lofa Tatupu will not
return. But Seattle’s short-passing game and ball-control receivers such as
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson & TE John Carlson should do lots of
business vs. a Detroit defense that’s slowing improvment, but still allowing
more than 70% completions. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 7 ints.)
wouldn’t be the first QB to have a penalty-laden, turnover-impaired outing in his
first trip to the glorious, but always noisy and sometimes rainy, Pacific
Northwest. (06-Seattle -6 9-6...SR: Seattle 6-4)

SAN FRANCISCO 22 - Tennessee 20—Battle of two former first-round QBs
now back in the starting lineup trying to rejuvenate their careers. Thanks to a
combined 275 YR from Chris Johnson (52 & 89 TD jaunts) and LenDale White,
Vince Young was able to dink away (15 of 18 passing for 125 yards; 12 for 30
rushing) successfully against former nemesis Jacksonville last week. Alex
Smith (19 of 32, 1 TD, 1 int., four sacks) faced a tougher test at Indy. And S.F.
4-1-1 vs. the number last six at home for Mike Singletary. But it shouldn’t go
unnoticed that veteran CB Cortland Finnegan & nickel-back Vincent Fuller
returned to action to shore up the Titan secondary.
(05-TENNESSEE -8' 33-22...SR: San Francisco 7-4)

NY GIANTS 28 - San Diego 20—Despite the early-season injuries in their
secondary, the G-men led the NFL in total defense before last week’s lashing
by the Eagles. Now, it’s one or the other. Either take the laboring Eli Manning
and his inconsistent, young receivers after three straight losses, or side with the
often “soft” Chargers and excellent QB Philip Rivers, plus the healthier L.T. (two
TDs last week) and Shawne Merriman (two sacks last week). We’ll side with the
former, as the Chargers also having problems in coverage, and sometimes in
pass protection.
(05-SAN DIEGO -6' 45-23...SR: NY Giants 5-4)

*PHILADELPHIA 30 - Dallas 21—Except for their opening-game victory at
overwhelmed Tampa Bay, the Cowboys have played much better at home than
on the road. And even though Dallas has found a new go-to WR in speedy Miles
Austin (“Rice-i-an” stats of 21 recs., 482 yards, 5 TDs the last three games),
insiders say Cowboys still have tackling concerns in their secondary. If HC
Andy Reid can get Donovan McNabb off to alert, quick decision-making from
the outset, the Eagles have the speedy young receivers to exploit that
deficiency, even if key RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) out again (rookie
backup RB McCoy 2 TDs last week). The addition of heady leader LB Will
Witherspoon from St. Louis has been a godsend for Bird defense. TV—NBC
(08-DAL. 41-Phil. 37...P.23-20 P.23/78 D.24/68 D.21/30/1/312 P.25/37/0/259 D.1 P.1)
(08-PHIL. 44-Dal. 6...P.16-15 P.36/137 D.19/87 D.23/41/1/211 P.12/21/0/166 P.1 D.4)
(08-DALLAS -7 41-37, PHILADELPHIA -2 44-6...SR: Dallas 55-44)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9

*DENVER 20 - Pittsburgh 16—Denver’s bye week affected the momentum
of the previously red-hot, undefeated Broncos last week in Baltimore. Now, offits-
bye Pittsburgh must seek to avoid the same pitfall after winning four straight
before its week off. Denver’s defense had given up only 10 points in the second
half until last week’s 24 at the Ravens. But careful QB Kyle Orton still has only
one int. TY (on a Hail Mary), while big-play-seeking Ben Roethlisberger has six
ints. and 20 sacks while getting his 11 TDP. Denver has endured fades after
fast starts in the past, but will trust the Broncs’ improved defense (14 ppg) to
keep Big Ben under constant pressure in this one. Denver “under” 6 of 7 this
year and 8 of last 9 at home. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-DENVER +3' 31-28...SR: Denver 16-9-1)
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2007 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3½ beat Pittsburgh 31-28 at Denver
2006 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3 beat Pittsburgh 31-20 at Pittsburgh

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Pittsburgh and Denver on Monday Night
Pittsburgh is 14-17 straight-up and 16-14-1 vs. the pointspread
on the road on Monday Night Football; 23-5 straight-up and 19-9
vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 19-10-1 straight-up and 12-17-1 vs. the pointspread at home on
Monday Night Football; 7-21 straight-up and 10-17-1 vs. the pointspread
on the road on Monday Night Footbal

THE GOLD SHEET

JACKSONVILLE 26 - Kansas City 16—Not particularly excited about laying
points with struggling Jacksonville (no covers last 7 as home chalk) and underfire
HC Jack Del Rio. Bt until K.C. displays a bit more competence, it’s even
harder to support Chiefs. Spotty OL play rendering the K.C. ground game
impotent (no rush TD last 34 Qs, plus an OT!) and not providing much
protection for Matt Cassel, reducing chances that Chiefs can take advantage of
listless Jag pass rush and 30th-ranked pass defense. Larry Johnson’s
suspension (any anti-L.J. protests after last week’s remarks should provide an
interesting scene, eh?) certainly no bonus for already-limp K.C. attack.
(07-Jacksonville -2 17-7...SR: Jacksonville 5-2)

CINCINNATI 24 - Baltimore 17—Baltimore regained a bit of its
swagger with last week’s destruction of unbeaten Denver. And Cincy needed
a Carson Palmer 20-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to win at M&T Bank
Stadium Oct. 11. However, note that the underdog has covered all of the
Bengals’ games TY, with Cincy 4-0 SU getting points. That’s enough evidence
to indicate that the 2009 Bengals are for real, as if their 5-2 record, the healthy
Palmer’s 13 TD passes, Cedric Benson’s 720 YR, and their unexpectedly
improved OL were not. Check status of Raven stud DLman Haloti Ngata
(injured last week).
(09-Cincy 17-BALT. 14...C.22-12 C.34/142 B.18/82 C.18/31/1/261 B.22/31/2/175 C.1 B.0)
(08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1)
(08-Balt. 34-CINCY 3...B.20-6 B.41/150 C.16/57 B.20/30/0/304 C.12/33/1/98 B.0 C.0)
(09-Cincy +8' 17-14; 08-BALT. +2 17-10, Balt. -7 34-3...SR: Baltimore 15-12)

INDIANAPOLIS 21 - Houston 17—Indy
progressing into elite territory with its regular-season win streak now at 16 and
Colts within sight of the record 21 in a row set by the Patriots spanning 2006-08.
But last week’s narrow escape vs. 49ers is a reminder that Indy (which had
recently feasted on some flawed foes) has not been not naming the score vs.
quality opposition. The improved 5-3 Texans have tightened the screws
defensively (No. 1 pick LB Brian Cushing a gem), especially vs. the run (last four
foes just 58 ypg). Gary Kubiak might have stumbled upon a nice revelation at
RB after Ryan Moats gained 126 YR in relief of fumble-prone Steve Slaton at
Buffalo. With its improved defense, Houston “under” four of last five TY.
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(08-INDY 33-Hou. 27...I.30-16 H.25/177 I.34/154 I.30/46/0/320 H.13/18/1/179 I.0 H.0)
(08-Indianapolis -3' 31-27, INDIANAPOLIS -8 33-27...SR: Indianapolis 13-1)

ATLANTA 27 - Washington 10—One of the surprises of the first half of the
NFL season is that Dan Snyder has yet to hit the “eject” button on struggling HC
Jim Zorn, who’s instead merely been neutered by being stripped of play-calling
duties. And new playcaller Sherm Lewis has inherited the same problems
(injured OL, inconsistent QBing from Jason Campbell), now compounded by
the loss of go-to TE Cooley. So it’s not likely that Skins will take advantage of
injuries in the Atlanta defense. Matt Ryan & Co. have been extending margins
at Georgia Dome, where Falcs are 3-0 SU and vs. spread TY.
(06-Atlanta +1 24-14...SR: Washington 15-5-1)

Green Bay 27 - TAMPA BAY 9—A few rookie HC/QB combos have
fared well lately in NFL, but the Raheem Morris-Josh Freeman duo in Tampa
Bay isn’t likely to invite comparisons to Jon Harbaugh-Joe Flacco or Mike
Smith-Matt Ryan, or even Rex Ryan-Mark Sanchez. Indeed, the only
comparisons the Bucs (10 straight losses and now the NFL’s last winless team)
are inviting these days are with the recent Lions’ and Rams’ losing streaks. And
it’s worth noting that Freeman becomes the third different starting QB for
Morris, who also changed his offensive coordinator late in the preseason. Dom
Capers’ aggressive Packer defense has a lot less to worry about in Florida after
facing Brett Favre & Vikings last week. T.B. 2-10 vs. spread in its last 12 games.
(08-T. BAY 30-G. Bay 21...T.20-8 T.39/180 G.18/28 G.16/32/3/153 T.15/30/3/149 T.0 G.1)
(08-TAMPA BAY -1' 30-21...SR: Green Bay 30-20-1)

Arizona 23 - CHICAGO 19—Not overly impressed with Chicago’s victory
over lowly Cleveland, as OL gave up four sacks and Jay Cutler tossed another
int. to raise total to 11 vs. 11 TDs. Meanwhile, the ever-gracious Kurt Warner
took charity too far last week, tossing five ints. and losing one fumble in
Arizona’s 34-21 home loss vs. Carolina. It’s not a scoop to say he can play a
lot better. The Cards have covered six straight as an underdog, including wins
in all three road games so far TY (Jacksonville, Seattle, New York Giants). (06-
Chicago -11 24-23...SR: Chicago 55-26-6)

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Miami 19—It was in their visit to Foxborough in Game
Three LY that Miami unleashed its Wildcat formation, with Ronnie Brown
running for four TDs and passing for another vs. the befuddled N.E. defense.
But Bill Bellichick’s charges held the Dolphins to just 62 YR in the rematch. And
last week the Jets successfully overloaded vs. Miami’s run, only to get killed by
Ted Ginn Jr.’s two kickoff return TDs while yielding only 104 total yards. Yes,
the Dolphins can exploit the rebuilding N.E. defense yielding 4.5 ypc. But who
better to exploit Miami’s two rookie CBs than Tom Brady? N.E. has outscored
its last two foes (both then winless—Tenn. & T.B.) 94-7, eased up.
(08-Miami 38-N. ENG. 13...M.23-13 M.36/216 N.18/67 M.18/21/0/245 N.22/35/1/137 M.0 N.1)
(08-N. Eng. 48-MIAMI 28...N.30-23 N.25/122 M.19/62 N.30/43/1/408 M.24/41/1/330 N.1 M.0)
(08-Miami +12' 38-13, New England +1 48-28...SR: Miami 49-38)

NEW ORLEANS 41 - Carolina 17—N.O. went into its Monday night date with
Atlanta having won its first six games by margins of 18, 26, 20, 14, 21, and 12
points, putting 39.7 ppg on the board and tied for the league lead (18) in
takeaways. That’s likely to be bad news for a Carolina team that led the NFL in
giveaways with 21 in its first six games (but none last week). Drew Brees is
giving HC Sean Payton credit for “scheming” to get all of his offensive
headliners involvedy. And kudos is due to a front office that has stopped the
hemorrhaging in recent Saints’ secondaries by adding No. 2 pick CB Tracy
Porter LY, plus free-agent CB Jabari Greer and S Darren Sharper TY. Saints
13-3 “over” in Superdome prior to last Monday.
(08-CAR. 30-N. Orl. 7...C.18-17 C.37/143 N.22/115 N.21/39/1/228 C.14/22/0/193 C.0 N.1)
(08-Car. 33-N. ORL. 31...C.23-22 C.42/234 N.11/50 N.30/49/1/367 C.14/20/0/244 C.0 N.1)
(08-CAROLINA -3 30-7, Carolina -2' 33-31...SR: Carolina 17-11)

SEATTLE 27 - Detroit 13—Seattle was a bit healthier in Dallas after its bye
week, although rock-solid LT Walter Jones and key MLB Lofa Tatupu will not
return. But Seattle’s short-passing game and ball-control receivers such as
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson & TE John Carlson should do lots of
business vs. a Detroit defense that’s slowing improvment, but still allowing
more than 70% completions. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 7 ints.)
wouldn’t be the first QB to have a penalty-laden, turnover-impaired outing in his
first trip to the glorious, but always noisy and sometimes rainy, Pacific
Northwest. (06-Seattle -6 9-6...SR: Seattle 6-4)

SAN FRANCISCO 22 - Tennessee 20—Battle of two former first-round QBs
now back in the starting lineup trying to rejuvenate their careers. Thanks to a
combined 275 YR from Chris Johnson (52 & 89 TD jaunts) and LenDale White,
Vince Young was able to dink away (15 of 18 passing for 125 yards; 12 for 30
rushing) successfully against former nemesis Jacksonville last week. Alex
Smith (19 of 32, 1 TD, 1 int., four sacks) faced a tougher test at Indy. And S.F.
4-1-1 vs. the number last six at home for Mike Singletary. But it shouldn’t go
unnoticed that veteran CB Cortland Finnegan & nickel-back Vincent Fuller
returned to action to shore up the Titan secondary.
(05-TENNESSEE -8' 33-22...SR: San Francisco 7-4)

NY GIANTS 28 - San Diego 20—Despite the early-season injuries in their
secondary, the G-men led the NFL in total defense before last week’s lashing
by the Eagles. Now, it’s one or the other. Either take the laboring Eli Manning
and his inconsistent, young receivers after three straight losses, or side with the
often “soft” Chargers and excellent QB Philip Rivers, plus the healthier L.T. (two
TDs last week) and Shawne Merriman (two sacks last week). We’ll side with the
former, as the Chargers also having problems in coverage, and sometimes in
pass protection.
(05-SAN DIEGO -6' 45-23...SR: NY Giants 5-4)

*PHILADELPHIA 30 - Dallas 21—Except for their opening-game victory at
overwhelmed Tampa Bay, the Cowboys have played much better at home than
on the road. And even though Dallas has found a new go-to WR in speedy Miles
Austin (“Rice-i-an” stats of 21 recs., 482 yards, 5 TDs the last three games),
insiders say Cowboys still have tackling concerns in their secondary. If HC
Andy Reid can get Donovan McNabb off to alert, quick decision-making from
the outset, the Eagles have the speedy young receivers to exploit that
deficiency, even if key RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) out again (rookie
backup RB McCoy 2 TDs last week). The addition of heady leader LB Will
Witherspoon from St. Louis has been a godsend for Bird defense. TV—NBC
(08-DAL. 41-Phil. 37...P.23-20 P.23/78 D.24/68 D.21/30/1/312 P.25/37/0/259 D.1 P.1)
(08-PHIL. 44-Dal. 6...P.16-15 P.36/137 D.19/87 D.23/41/1/211 P.12/21/0/166 P.1 D.4)
(08-DALLAS -7 41-37, PHILADELPHIA -2 44-6...SR: Dallas 55-44)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9

*DENVER 20 - Pittsburgh 16—Denver’s bye week affected the momentum
of the previously red-hot, undefeated Broncos last week in Baltimore. Now, offits-
bye Pittsburgh must seek to avoid the same pitfall after winning four straight
before its week off. Denver’s defense had given up only 10 points in the second
half until last week’s 24 at the Ravens. But careful QB Kyle Orton still has only
one int. TY (on a Hail Mary), while big-play-seeking Ben Roethlisberger has six
ints. and 20 sacks while getting his 11 TDP. Denver has endured fades after
fast starts in the past, but will trust the Broncs’ improved defense (14 ppg) to
keep Big Ben under constant pressure in this one. Denver “under” 6 of 7 this
year and 8 of last 9 at home. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-DENVER +3' 31-28...SR: Denver 16-9-1)
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2007 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3½ beat Pittsburgh 31-28 at Denver
2006 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3 beat Pittsburgh 31-20 at Pittsburgh

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Pittsburgh and Denver on Monday Night
Pittsburgh is 14-17 straight-up and 16-14-1 vs. the pointspread
on the road on Monday Night Football; 23-5 straight-up and 19-9
vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 19-10-1 straight-up and 12-17-1 vs. the pointspread at home on
Monday Night Football; 7-21 straight-up and 10-17-1 vs. the pointspread
on the road on Monday Night Footbal

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5

*NORTHERN ILLINOIS 33 - Eastern Michigan 17—Sure EMU is 0-8 and
going nowhere, while NIU controls its own destiny in race for MAC West title.
But backing Huskies laying nearly 3 TDs could prove foolhardy, especially if QB
Harnish still sidelined with knee problem. N. Illinois had dropped 10 in a row vs.
the number laying double-digits before rallying for 27-10 win and cover vs.
Akron last week. Eagle QB McMahon threw for 3 scores in 2nd-half backdoor
cover at Arkansas. TV—ESPNU
(08-N. Ill. 37-E. MICH. 0...N.21-19 N.43/235 E.33/119 E.21/39/2/140 N.13/17/0/104 N.0 E.0)
(08-Niu -6 37-0 07-Emu +13' 21-19 06-Niu -7' 27-0...SR: Northern Illinois 23-14-2)

*TEMPLE 41 - Miami-Ohio 10—Miami got a “treat” on Halloween with its first
SU win of the season against Toledo, but Temple likely to turn the “trick” this
week. Owl frosh RB sensation Bernard Pierce has run for 479 yds. & 5 TDs the
last two games, and he figures to continue his rich vein of form facing a
RedHawk “D” that gives up 33 ppg (107th) and 4.8 ypc (ranks 98th vs. the run).
Sloppy Miami ranks last in turnover ratio.
(08-Temple 28-MIAMI 10...M.20-11 T.40/116 M.39/91 M.22/40/1/212 T.11/23/1/178 T.1 M.3)
(08-Temple +7 28-10 07-TEMPLE +6 24-17...SR: Temple 2-1)

*Virginia Tech 30 - EAST CAROLINA 13—Tech down in the dumps after two
straight losses have sent Hokies tumbling in national rankings. But HC Beamer
(7-1 vs. spread last 8 in revenge) will find a way to get his squad stoked for trip
to ECU after Pirates picked off Tech in 2008 season opener. ECU QB Pinkney
has just 8 TDP (vs. 9 ints.) TY, with 3 of those scoring throws coming in recent
home romp over woeful Rice. TV-ESPN
(08-E. Car. 27-Va. Tech 22...E.19-12 E.41/158 V.35/104 E.19/25/0/211 V.14/23/2/139 E.2 V.0)
(08-Ecu +9 27-22 at Charlotte 07-TECH -27' 17-7...SR: Virginia Tech 9-5)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6

*Boise State 33 - LOUISIANA TECH 18—With an eye on the polls and
apparently willing to run up scores to keep pace with fellow BCS Buster TCU,
Boise a threat to extend any margin these days. But if oddsmakers adding any
extra premium (as they did in recent Bronco game at Tulsa), might be tempted
to take bait with La Tech bunch that’s a lot tougher Bulldog in Ruston, where it
has covered 6 of last 7 as dog. TV—ESPN2
(08-BOISE ST. 38-La. Tech 3...B.26-13 B.44/132 L.36/118 B.21/31/1/332 L.9/30/1/202 B.0 L.0)
(08-BSU -24 38-3 07-Bsu -15' 45-31 06-BSU -35' 55-14...SR: Boise State 7-4)

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Western Michigan 23—MSU defense was laid open
by Minny last week, and if WMU WRs Nunez & White can return, Bronco QB
Hiller could do similar damage. Spartans need a win to get to 5-5, but
Dantonio’s crew has dropped two straight and is just 8-17 against the number
last 25 at East Lansing. MSU leading rusher Caper could be out, and Spartan
pass “D” has been consistently poor.
(DNP...SR: Michigan State 8-2)

CINCINNATI 30 - Connecticut 10—Bearcats haven’t missed a beat with star
sr. QB Pike sidelined, as evasive soph backup Collaros completed 37 of 45 for
548 yards with 7 TDP & no ints. in easy victories over rival Louisville and at
Syracuse. Add in revenge motive for Cincy (13-5 vs. spread last 18 as host),
plus fact that inaccurate QB Frazer (48%, 3 TDP, 7 ints.) back at trigger of
UConn attack, and compelled to back burgeoning Bearcats, who are trying to
get to 9-0 for first time since 1951.
(08-CON. 40-Cincy 16...Ci.16-15 Co.36/153 Ci.19/30 Ci.19/47/3/259 Co.18/42/0/196 Co.0 Ci.3)
(08-CONN. +2' 40-16 07-CINCY -6' 27-3 06-Cincy -4' 26-23...SR: Cincinnati 4-1)

PITTSBURGH 31 - Syracuse 17—With sizzling sr. QB Stull (16 TDP, only 4
ints.) & star true frosh RB D. Lewis (129 ypg rushing—4th in nation), rested
Panthers have enough offensive firepower to come away with comfortable
victory. Still, spunky Syracuse defense should keep visitor inside roomy spread
as long as erratic QB Paulus doesn’t hurt Orange cause with giveaways. Pitt
has visit from Notre Dame up next. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Pitt 34-SYR. 24...P.23-12 P.46/241 S.27/126 P.17/29/0/166 S.9/17/0/137 P.0 S.1)
(08-Pitt -14' 34-24 07-PITT -13 20-17 06-Pitt -7 21-11...SR: Pittsburgh 31-30-3)

IOWA 38 - Northwestern 16—These two were on opposite ends of very
similar results last week, as Iowa scored 28 4th-Q points to get the win (and
cover) against Indiana, while Northwestern watched Penn State roll for 21 in 4th
Q as the Nittany Lions rolled. Have to be impressed with Hawkeyes overcoming
5 Stanzi interceptions vs. Hoosiers. Wildcat “D” has collected just 1 turnover in
last 3 games. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-North. 22-IOWA 17...I.24-22 I.31/169 N.34/106 N.28/45/1/284 I.21/30/1/238 N.0 I.4)
(08-Nwu +8' 22-17 07-Iowa +1' 28-17 06-Nwu +20 21-7...SR: Iowa 46-21-3)

MINNESOTA 34 - Illinois 24—Give Illinois HC Zook credit for switching up
offensive emphasis vs. Michigan, as Illini threw a season-low 11 passes while
rolling up 500 yards total offense in upset of Wolverines. Inconsistent pass
attack has been a season-long problem for Illini, and Minny proved it can win
without injured WR Decker. Need double-digits to back Illini.
(08-MINN. 27-Ill. 20...I.25-16 M.34/116 I.33/88 I.26/42/1/462 M.19/27/0/196 M.1 I.2)
(08-Minn. +12' 27-20 07-Ill. -11' 44-17...SR: Minnesota 32-27-3)

WEST VIRGINIA 34 - Louisville 14—Mountaineers have turned into moneyburner
as favorite under HC Stewart, and WV just 6-13 vs. spread overall last
1+ seasons. However, Louisville’s hard-fought home win over Sun Belt rep
Arkansas State last week hardly a “buy” on struggling visitor. Might be more
inclined to consider taking points with Cards if their offense closer to full
strength (see Special Ticker).
(08-W. Va. 35-LVL. 21...L.26-16 W.41/376 L.38/198 L.27/47/3/276 W.6/11/0/122 W.1 L.2)
(08-Wva -7 35-21 07-WVA -16' 38-31 06-LVL. -1' 44-34...SR: West Virginia 8-2)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 35 - Maryland 33—Uneven Maryland offense
(only 97 ypg rushing) managed just 22 points in last two games. Poor-tackling
N.C. State has surrendered 146 points in last three outings. Lean to rested 2-
6 Terps (GULP!).
(08-MARY. 27-Ncs 24...21-21 M.36/203 N.42/155 N.18/29/0/187 M.9/20/0/126 M.1 N.1)
(08-MARY. -11' 27-24 07-Mary. +2 37-0 06-MARY. -2 26-20...SR: Maryland 31-30-4)

GEORGIA TECH 37 - Wake Forest 16—Check status of Wake sr. QB
Skinner, who left late in last week’s home loss to Miami with possible
concussion. Even if he’s available, not inclined to go against red-hot Tech side
that’s won & covered its last 6. Crafty HC Paul. Johnson 14-5 vs. spread since
taking helm of Jackets, and Tech’s relentless ground onslaught (1476 YR last
4 games!) keeping opposition offenses on sidelines for long stretches.
(06-Wake Forest +2 9-6 at Jacksonville, Fla...SR: Georgia Tech 20-8)

Duke 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 26—Although Carolina has captured 5
straight against despised neighbor Duke, last 4 meetings were decided by a
total of just 18 points. Heels still have more speed & athleticism on defense
than Blue Devils, but Duke sr. QB Lewis (1532 YP & 10 TDP in last 4 games)
making good use of his nice stable of young receiving targets. Upset alert.
CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-N. Car. 28-DUKE 20...N.20-19 N.47/179 D.22/72 D.34/49/1/278 N.15/19/1/190 N.1 D.1)
(08-Unc -7' 28-20 07-UNC -14 20-14 (OT) 06-Unc -7 45-44...SR: North Carolina 56-35-4)

Wisconsin 34 - INDIANA 17—Although Wisconsin hasn’t stood up against
the Big Ten’s best (losses to Iowa & Ohio St.), Badgers have won and covered
all 3 against lesser conference foes. Wiscy defense held Purdue to 8 FDs and
141 total yards in 37-0 win last week. Hoosiers have to be a bit disheartened
after blowing upset chance at Iowa (collected 6 TOs and led 21-7 in 3rd Q), and
Badgers have made a habit of pummeling Indiana, winning and covering alst 3
by combined 140-40 score. But what IU fans want to really know is if Bob Knight
will change his mind and make surprise appearance at Hoosier HOF induction!
(08-Wisc. 55-IND. 20...W.31-14 W.61/441 I.38/133 W.11/20/1/160 I.13/34/0/141 W.3 I.1)
(08-Wisc. -10 55-20 07-WISC. -8' 33-3 06-Wisc. -10' 52-17...SR: Wisconsin 35-18-2)

ARKANSAS 31 - South Carolina 30—With pointspread rising following last
week’s contrasting results, prefer to take inflated price with bowl-eligible South
Carolina, which had played mostly error-free until sloppy, rain-soaked 31-13
loss at Tennessee (3 early fumbles led to 3 Vol TDs). ‘Cocks capable
triggerman Garcia (612 YP last 2 weeks) & his maturing group of receivers
equipped to trade points with Mallett & mates by exploiting Arkansas 2ndary
(SEC-worst 60%, 16 TDs, 6 ints.).
(08-S. CAL 34-Ark. 21...18-18 S.34/132 A.31/54 A.20/34/3/255 S.13/30/1/219 S.0 A.0)
(08-USC -12' 34-21 07-ARK. -5' 48-36 06-Ark. -2' 26-20...SR: Arkansas 10-7)

Oklahoma State 24 - IOWA STATE 17—Both teams suffering attrition, with
OSU missing top RB Kendall Hunter (one carry vs. Texas) and star WR Dez
Bryant (suspended). Meanwhile, ISU hopes to have sr. starting QB Arnaud
(missed last two games) back this week. But sr. starting C Reggie Stephens
(appendectomy) and nickel-back Ter’ran Benton (broken leg) are out, and HC
Paul Rhoads says his defenders were “gassed” last week trying to stop A&M’s
spread. TV-ABC
(08-OKLA. ST. 59-Iowa St. 17...O.28-17 O.36/263 I.38/122 O.20/29/1/419 I.20/35/2/240 O.1 I.1)
(08-OKLAHOMA STATE -30' 59-17...SR: Oklahoma State 24-17-3)

MISSOURI 33 - Baylor 13—In its four Big XII games TY, Baylor has scored
a total of 34 points and has rushed for 48 ypg. The Bears had no offensive TDs,
gave up 7 sacks, and lost 3 turnovers while somehow managing cover last week
vs. Nebraska. While Mizzou is no NU on defense, the Tigers collected 8 sacks
last week and have a much brighter offense than BU if 6-5 QB Gabbert (7 ints.
since spraining ankle four games ago) can avoid re-injury.
(08-Mo. 31-BAYLOR 28...M.29-26 B.44/155 M.34/153 M.31/39/2/337 B.26/35/1/283 M.1 B.1)
(08-Missouri -21 31-28...SR: Missouri 10-2)

*FLORIDA 47 - Vanderbilt 7 —Though UF has just clinched the SEC East
and a spot in title game, still prefer to lay the lumber with healthy Gators. And
expect Heisman-like performance from QB Tebow (accounted for 4 TDs vs.
UGA) vs. caving Vandy defense that allowed 597 yds. last week. Gators led 35-
0 at intermission vs. Vandy LY. TV—ESPN
(08-Fla. 42-VANDY 14...F.24-15 F.38/231 V.39/150 F.15/21/1/191 V.12/22/1/114 F.1 V.0)
(08-Fla. -23' 42-14 07-FLA. -14' 49-22 06-Fla. -16' 25-19...SR: Florida 31-9-2)

WYOMING 26 - Byu 27—Decent points worth grabbing with muchimproved
Wyo squad that gave Utah a scare at Salt Lake City week ago
(Cowboys led 10-9 in 4th Q). Wyo’s error-free triggerman Carta-Samuels (only
3 ints. in 219 attempts) will do some business vs. slowish BYU 2ndary (244 ypg
passing, 14 TDP). And vet Cowboy “D” (22 ppg; only 7 TDP) can limit BYU’s
“explosive” plays, undervalued Wyo can rises to 7-1 vs. spread TY.
08-BYU 44-Wyoming 0...B.23-19 B.34/163 W.36/137 B.20/37/0/201 W.17/36/3/136 B.0 W.3)
(08-BYU -28' 44-0 07-Byu -10' 35-10 06-BYU -18' 55-7...SR: BYU 42-30-3)

NOTRE DAME 28 - Navy 24—Hard to ignore the stark and enduring technical
angles of this old rivalry that’s seen Navy cover its last 9 trips to South Bend.
And since Irish have dropped their last 6 as chalk TY, no reason trend can’t
continue. As long as Middie option pilot Dobbs (returned to action vs. Temple
after temporary KO) ready to go, Navy can move clock and chains enough to
keep Jimmy Clausen (who might be less mobile than usual with toe injury) off
field. TV—NBC
(08-N. Dame 27-NAVY 21...Nd.24-11 Nd.51/230 Na.45/178 Nd.15/19/2/110 Na.3/14/0/64
Nd.3 Na.1)
(08-Und -4 27-21 at Balt. 07-Navy +3' 46-44 (OT) 06-Und -13' 38-14 at Balt...SR: ND 71-10-1)

SMU 42 - Rice 16—Extra week of prep not nearly enough time to cure what
ails winless Rice (1-7 vs. spread). Much prefer June Jones’ improving SMU
squad coming off confidence-boosting victory at highly-regarded Tulsa.
Mustang QBs soph Mitchell & true frosh Padron (20 of 30 for 354 yards with no
ints. last week) both rate big edge over ineffective Owl counterparts, and Pony
defense not such a pushover anymore.
(08-RICE 56-Smu 27...R.30-19 R.44/208 S.14/11 S.30/49/3/326 R.24/37/0/258 R.2 S.2)
(08-RICE -3' 56-27 07-Rice +6' 43-42 06-RICE P 31-27...SR: SMU 44-40-1)

Utep 37 - TULANE 26—Good luck choosing whether to lay points with UTEP,
which is 3-17 last 20 as chalk, or take them with terrible Tulane team that’s
covered 1 of last 10 on board and has been outscored 160-32 in its last 4 games.
(08-UTEP 24-Tulane 21...20-20 T.39/318 U.34/156 U.21/32/0/296 T.11/22/0/94 U.1 T.0)
(08-UTEP -5 24-21 07-TULANE +4 34-19 06-UTEP -13 34-20...SR: UTEP 3-1)

ALABAMA 17 - Lsu 16—Prefer to “take” with loaded LSU, currently playing
its best ball of year—on both sides. Tigers evolving QB Jefferson (4 TDP last
2 games) performing more efficiently than Bama pilot McElroy (only 2 offensive
TDs last 3 games), who’ll have trouble consistently moving sticks (even with
dazzling RB Ingram) vs. smothering Tiger defense (13 ppg; only 3 rush TDs)
permitting only one meaningful TD last 3 games. Visitor is 10-1-2 vs. spread
last 13 meetings. TV-CBS
(08-Alabama 27-LSU 21 (OT)...L.17-16 L.46/201 A.37/138 A.15/31/1/215 L.13/34/4/181 A.2 L.0)
(08-Alabama -3' 27-21 (OT) 07-Lsu -7 41-34 06-LSU -17' 28-14...SR: Alabama 44-23-5)

TEXAS 46 - Ucf 10—Mighty Texas (leads nation with 9 defense/STs TDs),
laying some mighty numbers recently. But Longhorns are 6-1 vs. spread last 7
non-conference games at home, and they’re 6-4 laying four TDs or more in the
Colt McCoy era. UCF’s athletic defense (19 ppg) must be respected, but its
offense can often be overwhelmed by quality foes. Knights 10-5 last 15 as dog,
but UT is poll conscious.

Kent State 27 - AKRON 14—Kent one of several MAC teams that can
get to the conference championship game by winning out, and Golden Flashes
won’t be looking past nearby rival Akron despite Zips’ 1-7 SU record. Kent’s
frosh QB Keith has thrown for 646 yards and 4 TDs in last two games, and Doug
Martin’s Flashes have covered 6 straight. Zips’ 119th-rated offense should be
stifled by Kent “D” that’s yielded just 10 ppg over last 3. TV—ESPNU
(08-Akron 30-KENT ST. 27 (OT)...K.25-15 K.58/256 A.29/58 A.21/39/3/243 K.17/31/0/157 A.0 K.2)
(08-Akron -3' 30-27 (OT) 07-AKRON +2' 27-20 06-KSU +2' 37-15...SR: Akron 29-20-2)

AIR FORCE 37 - Army 10—Since service academies rarely take it
easy on one another, no surprise that Air Force has exploited its almost-annual
firepower advantages over West Point by covering 10 of last 12 mostly-hefty
spreads in this rivalry. Dynamics no different this time, as long as Falc QB
Jefferson (who provides a bit more aerial diversion than injured comrade
Dietz) remains in healthy state. Black Knight option hasn’t cracked 16
points last five in ‘09.
(08-A. Force 16-ARMY 7...Ar.17-10 Ar.48/143 Af.49/142 Ar.8/26/2/107 Af.3/8/1/32 Af.0 Ar.1)
(08-Afa -8 16-7 07-AFA -16' 30-10 06-Afa -6 43-7...SR: Air Force 29-13-1)

KANSAS STATE 31 - Kansas 27—KU has won & covered last three
meetings, but those were vs. Ron Prince’s erratic Wildcats. Now, with three
straight losses TY, Jayhawks face old nemesis Bill Snyder, who won & covered
10 straight in series from 1994-2003. KU’s ground game has evaporated (only
48 ypg last 3), while K-State’s offense improved, and its defense tightened up
noticeably after slow start last week vs. Oklahoma’s spread.
(08-KANSAS 52-Kan. St. 21...U.26-19 U.41/280 S.32/91 S.26/41/3/264 U.15/25/1/189 U.0 S.2)
(08-KANSAS -8' 52-21 07-Kansas +3' 30-24 06-KANSAS -2' 39-20...SR: Kansas 65-36-5)

*Oklahoma 26 - NEBRASKA 13—Bo Pelini’s Nebraska defense (no TDs
allowed to Baylor offense last week; DT Jared Crick five sacks) quite gnarly.
But Pelini has turned the offense over to 6-4 true frosh QB Cody Green. OU
redshirt frosh QB Landry Jones (17 TDs, 6 ints.) has five starts, plus extensive
relief duty. Run-game edge goes to Sooner srs. Chris Brown & DeMarco
Murray (combo 975 YR), while WR Ryan Broyles (10 TDC) is the top target on
the field. TV-ABC
(08-OKLA. 62-Neb. 28...O.21-15 N.35/204 O.40/193 O.21/30/1/315 N.16/28/2/214 O.0 N.2)
(08-OKLA. -21' 62-28 06-Okla. -3' 21-7 at Kansas City, Mo...SR: Okla. 44-37-3)

PENN STATE 30 - Ohio State 14—Penn State owns enough edges to
handle OSU. Nittany Lion 5th-year sr. QB Clark is more of a finished product
than mercurial counterpart Terrelle Pryor, who’s had trouble against good
teams (16 of 38 passing vs. Southern Cal and Wisconsin). Penn State RB Evan
Royster is on his way to another 1000-yard season, while Buckeye counterpart
Herron hasn’t been healthy. Nittany Lion WRs Moye (6-5; 18 catches for 296
yds. L3 games) & Zug (14 recs., 3 TDs L3) making more big plays. TV-ABC
(08-Penn St. 13-OHIO ST. 6...P.18-14 P.37/160 O.31/61 O.16/28/1/226 P.12/20/0/121 P.0 O.1)
(08-Psu -2 13-6 07-Osu -3' 37-17 06-OSU -17 28-6...SR: EVEN 12-12)

Tcu 40 - SAN DIEGO STATE 10—Though 4-4 SDS making positive strides
under savvy 1st-year HC Brady Hoke, won’t go against BCS-busting TCU team
that has destroyed its last 3 foes by combined 123-13 score. Horned Frogs’
underappreciated sr. QB Dalton is en fuego, while Aztecs triggerman Lindley
figures to be running for his life vs. hard-charging TCU front 7 (29 sacks)
unconcerned with SDS’ non-existent ground attack (50 YR vs. New Mexico!).
Frogs 15-6 last 21 as chalk!
(08-TCU 41-S. Diego St. 7...T.28-4 T.71/383 S.15/M13 T.10/19/0/115 S.10/26/0/98 T.1 S.1)
(08-TCU -24' 41-7 07-Tcu -12' 45-33 06-TCU -17 52-0...SR: TCU 4-0)

*Fresno State 41 - IDAHO 30—Kudos to bowl-eligible Idaho for another
uplifting win last week vs. La Tech, but please note Vandals losing a bit of their
pointspread magic (now two straight Ls) as “D” beginning to spring leaks fore
and aft. Expect hot Fresno (4-0 vs. line away; SU losses only vs. bowl-bound
Wisconsin and likely BCS-bound Cincy & Boise) to especially take advantage
with nation’s leading rusher Ryan Matthews (165 yg). CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-FRES. ST. 46-Idaho 32...I.26-23 F.38/318 I.39/215 I.22/39/0/237 F.14/23/0/125 F.1 I.2)
(08-FSU -34 46-32 07-Fsu -9' 37-24 06-FSU -11' 34-0...SR: Fresno State 7-4)

UTAH 38 - New Mexico 3—Utah might not be the protypical preferred heavy
favorite this week, not with HC Whittingham still experimenting at QB (starter
Cain pulled for frosh Wynn in 2nd H vs. Wyo) as TCU & BYU showdowns loom
on horizon. But not ready to classify competitive effort at SDSU as “buy” signal
for still-winless New Mexico bunch and its low-ranked (109th total, 114th
scoring) “O” that figures to have little chance denting miserly Ute “D.”
(08-Utah 13-N. MEX. 10...U.17-16 U.35/193 N.36/114 U.23/33/1/195 N.16/26/0/170 U.1 N.0)
(08-Utah -7' 13-10 07-UTAH -15 28-10 06-UNM +6 34-31...SR: Utah 31-17-2)

ARIZONA 45 - Washington State 7—With most of Wazzu’s games evolving
into little more than well-attended scrimmages these days, lowly Cougs (9-3 vs.
line last 12!) have been able to consistently slip thru an open backdoor against
disinterested opposition. Not sure, however, that we want to count upon
Mike Stoops’ mercy for another WSU cover. Cats well-rested off bye, have
covered 10 of last 12 as host, and have enough firepower (37 ppg last 4) to
extend margin.
(08-Ariz. 59-WASH. ST. 28...A.28-12 A.57/317 W.29/94 A.11/15/1/214 W.10/20/3/114 A.1 W.1)
(08-Ariz. -40' 59-28 07-ARIZ. -2' 48-20 06-Ariz. +16 27-17...SR: Arizona 23-13)

*Oregon State 27 - CALIFORNIA 26—By this point, we’ve seen enough of
Cal QB Riley failing to “step up” his game to assume Bears are going to offer
much value vs. quality opposition. And OSU certainly qualifies as such,
especially with Beavers (now 25-6 SU from October onward since ‘06) catching
another late-season updraft. Mike Riley’s “Wild Beaver” plays have added an
extra dimension with RB Quizz Rodgers passing (!) for TD vs. UCLA last week.
(08-ORE. ST. 34-Cal. 21...O.20-11 O.42/194 C.30/85 C.12/27/1/147 O.14/28/1/145 O.0 C.1)
(08-OSU -3' 34-21 07-Osu +14 31-28 06-Cal. -9 41-13...SR: California 33-29)

Washington 26 - UCLA 20—UCLA “O” finally displayed a bit of life last week
at Corvallis, albeit in another losing effort (Bruins’ 5th straight in worst-ever
conference start). And regardless of RS frosh QB Prince’s improving stats, major
QB edge to U-Dub’s Jake Locker, soon to become one of Mel Kiper Jr.’s favorites
(Locker moving up fast on all projected draft boards). Rested Huskies can still
garner elusive bowl bid for 1st-year HC Sarkisian with wins in three of last four.
(08-Ucla 27-WASH. 7...U.20-10 U.50/157 W.30/96 U.13/22/3/135 W.7/24/3/39 U.0 W.2)
(08-Ucla -7 27-7 07-UCLA -6 44-31 06-WASH. +3 29-19...SR: UCLA 37-29-2)

Oregon 41 - STANFORD 27—Acknowledge possible Oregon letdown after
rousing romp past USC. Not to mention Stanford’s noteworthy 10 straight
covers on Farm. But not ready to pick spot where rampaging Ducks (won last
7, covered last 6; win margin 30 ppg last 5) slow down, especially after making
SC’s “D” look like so many bowling pins last week. Not enough playmakers on
Tree stop unit to make a difference.
(08-ORE. 35-Stan. 28...19-19 O.41/307 S.49/187 O.11/21/0/144 S.15/22/0/138 O.4 S.1)
(08-ORE. -13' 35-28 07-Ore. -18 55-31 06-ORE. -12 48-10...SR: Stanford 44-27-1)

Texas A&M 31 - COLORADO 19—While Colorado HC Dan Hawkins was
forced to juggle his QBs in midseason due to turnovers and lack of 3rd-down
conversions, Mike Sherman’s heavy investment in youth early in the season
paying great dividends. QB Jerrod Johnson has 20 TDP vs. just 3 ints., and the
Aggies are third nationally in total offense, eighth in scoring (36 ppg), and fourth
in third downs (52.5%).
(08-TEX. A&M 24-Colo. 17...C.22-20 C.43/194 T.33/94 T.15/31/0/214 C.18/34/3/198 T.1 C.0)
(08-TEXAS A&M -3' 24-17...SR: Colorado 5-3)

*MIAMI-FLORIDA 34 - Virginia 14—UVa HC Groh yet again under heavy fire
at Charlottesville. And, although Cavaliers have frequently responded with jobsaving
efforts for their beleaguered mentor over last few seasons, scouts
believe last week’s home loss to Duke sealed the pink slip for Groh at end of
campaign. Cool Miami QB Harris refuses to be rattled, and depleted Cane
defense can contain UVa’s sputtering spread attack.
(08-Miami 24-VA. 17 (OT)...M.22-18 M.40/197 V.24/78 M.18/33/1/251 V.27/41/0/240 M.2 V.2)
(08-Miami +2 24-17 (OT) 07-Va. +3' 48-0 06-VA. +3 17-7...SR: Miami-Fla. 4-2)

*TENNESSEE 42 - Memphis 7—Now that underachieving 2-6 Memphis
realistically out of bowl mix following one-sided 38-19 home loss vs. East
Carolina, ascending UT emphatically will hammer another nail in Tiger HC
West’s coffin. Vols now-sizzling QB Crompton and his dangerous cast (bluechip
frosh RB B. Brown coming on strong) will fully capitalize on extra scoring
opportunities, thanks to UT’s perplexing Tampa-2 “D” (17 ppg; 272 ypg),
spearheaded by NFL-caliber FS Berry. TV-ESPNU
(06-Tenn. -13' 41-7...SR: Ten. 20-1)

*CLEMSON 41 - Florida State 27—Good news for Fla. State is that its
burgeoning offense appears capable of trading points with anyone now that
smart QB Ponder (sore ribs; check status) growing comfortable at trigger. Bad
news for Noles is that they’re forced to trade points because their “D” is so bad.
Clemson starters got lots of rest in easy home romp over Coastal Carolina last
week, so no surprise if big-play star sr. RB/return man Spiller & his Tiger mates
able to KO punch-drunk State stop unit.
(08-FLA. ST. 41-Clem. 27...22-22 F.36/266 C.36/79 C.20/35/1/237 F.16/27/1/153 F.1 C.1)
(08-FSU -4 41-27 07-CLEM. +3' 24-18 06-Clem. +4 27-20...SR: Florida State 16-6)

*Houston 42 - TULSA 35—Was Tulsa’s shocking home loss to SMU last
week simply the result of Hurricane peeking ahead to this revenge grudge
match against C-USA West rival Houston? Maybe. But even if that’s the case,
not sure it’s wise to go against cookin’ Coug QB Keenum (69 TDP vs. only 16
ints. last 1+ seasons), who had school-record 559 YP last week. UT’s offense
not nearly as potent as its top-ranked attacks of last couple campaigns.
(08-HOU. 70-Tulsa 30...H.32-27 T.46/192 H.35/180 H.29/42/0/461 T.21/35/3/309 H.1 T.2)
(08-HOU. +4' 70-30 07-TULSA P 56-7 06-HOU. +3 27-10...SR: Houston 18-16)

*Southern Cal 31 - ARIZONA STATE 10—Although SC’s postseason aims
have changed a bit (Holiday Bowl might now be the best Trojans can do), expect
Pete Carroll’s troops to take out a bit of frustration vs. ASU. Slow-footed QB
Sullivan and sluggish Sun Devil “O” not as likely to find cracks in SC “D” that
more-capable recent opposition has been able to uncover. Carroll’s Trojans
usually rebound well after rare SU loss (8-2 vs. line last 10). TV—ABC
(08-S. CAL 28-Ariz. St. 0...16-16 S.40/210 A.36/75 S.15/29/3/177 A.15/37/3/154 S.2 A.1)
(08-USC -28 28-0 07-Usc -3 44-24 06-USC -19 28-21...SR: Southern Cal 16-9)

MICHIGAN 27 - Purdue 26—All 5 of Michigan’s SU wins have come at home
this season, and it’s been a while since Boilers pulled an upset in Ann Arbor.
However, Wolverine offense has struggled at times, and defense has shown
some major holes at home this season, including giving up 33 pts. to Indiana on
homecoming earlier this season. Boilermakers have statistically better
defense, and Wolverines’ top receiver Odoms has an injured knee.
(08-PURD. 48-Mich. 42...P.25-15 P.46/256 M.37/177 P.21/34/0/266 M.9/21/0/123 P.1 M.1)
(08-PURDUE -2 48-42 07-MICHIGAN -5 48-21...SR: Michigan 41-13)

*UNLV 31 - Colorado State 26—CSU (lost last 6 SU; 1-5 vs. line) lacking
manpower to compensate for mounting defensive injuries that have resulted in
vaporization of undersized stop unit allowing 40 ppg last 3. At least the pieces
are still in place for UNLV spread attack that has demonstrated competence vs.
lower-grade opposition. Tickets available at Sam Boyd Stadium.
(08-CSU 41-Unlv 28...C.24-20 C.44/216 U.33/174 C.15/21/0/294 U.14/26/1/173 C.1 U.1)
(08-CSU -2 41-28 07-Csu +2' 48-23 06-CSU -17 28-7...SR: Colorado State 12-4-1)

*Utah State 34 - HAWAII 27—In near-pick ‘em game, side with moneymaking
Utah State squad (10-1-1 vs. spread last 12) possessing the more
effective field general in disciplined dual threat Borel (11 TDP, just 1 int.; 105 YR
vs. Fresno State), who accounted for 310 yds. in 30-14 upset at Logan year ago.
Wallowing Warriors have 21 giveaways vs. 7 FBS squads TY.
(08-UTAH ST. 30-Hi. 14...H.21-17 U.40/145 H.27/141 H.19/37/0/233 U.14/20/1/223 U.0 H.2)
(08-USU +6' 30-14 07-HAWAII -39' 52-37 06-Hawaii -26' 63-10...SR: Utah St. 5-4)

ADDED GAMES

Florida Atlantic 33 - UAB 30—No strong recommendation at TGS press time
due to questionable status of prolific FAU sr. QB Rusty Smith (see Special
Ticker). If he’s ready to go, Owls have good chance to eke out close victory.
(08-FAU 49-Uab 34...U.27-25 F.25/196 U.35/156 F.22/35/0/358 U.26/48/0/326 F.1 U.0)
(08-FLORIDA ATLANTIC -13' 49-34...SR: Florida Atlantic 1-0)

La.-Monroe 37 - NORTH TEXAS 32—ULM on road for third straight week, but
stepping down in class after trips to Kentucky & Sun Belt power Troy. “Mean”
Green defense (45 ppg last 6) actually quite cordial, so side with Warhawks,
especially if injured top QB Revell (missed last 2 games) back in lineup.
(08-LA.-MON. 35-Ntu 23...N.31-16 L.33/244 N.30/101 N.37/62/0/362 L.13/22/0/217 L.0 N.1)
(08-ULM -18 35-23 07-UNT +7' 31-21 06-ULM -7 23-3...SR: La.-Monroe 13-12)

*Troy 52 - WESTERN KENTUCKY 17—Since it appears WKU has already
started the hoop season based on embarrassing defensive numbers (allowed
130 pts. last 2 games), must support Sun Belt power Troy, which is an
impressive 27-14-1 vs. spread since ‘06. Trojans prolific QB Levi Brown (ranked
in top ten nationally in pass efficiency) figures to set some conference marks in
this anticipated blowout.
(08-TROY 17-W. Ky. 7...T.24-15 T.33/131 W.35/121 T.30/46/1/298 W.15/33/1/95 T.1 W.0)
(08-TROY -18 17-7 07-Troy (NL) 21-17...SR: Troy 6-0-1)

RKANSAS STATE 31 - La.-Lafayette 13—ASU (5-12 vs. line since LY) not
exactly our idea of a trustworthy favorite. But back in Jonesboro, Red Wolves
could take out some frustrations on ULL bunch that might begin to sag a little
after defensive collapse vs. FAU and bitter OT loss vs. FIU. Expect ASU RB
Arnold to get moving vs. yielding, 92nd-ranked Cajun rush “D.”
(08-LA.-LAF. 28-Asu 23...A.17-15 L.51/189 A.28/100 A.21/40/1/235 L.10/17/2/124 L.0 A.1)
(08-ULL -3' 28-23 07-ASU -9 52-21 06-ULL -6 28-13...SR: La.-Lafayette 19-17-1)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 40 - Florida Intl. 19—Form chart in Sun Belt
usually touts MTSU as favorite (Blue Raiders have covered last 4 as chalk). And
don’t mind laying a few points since Murfreesboro bunch has rediscovered an
infantry component (QB Dasher & RB Kyles both over 100 YR in win at FAU) to
re-ignite spread attack (45 ppg last 2).
(08-FLA. INTL. 31-Mts 21...F.17-15 M.41/171 F.42/112 F.13/29/1/223 M.14/27/3/72 F.2 M.0)
(08-FIU -2 31-21 07-MTS -9' 47-6 06-MTS -10 7-6...SR: EVEN 2-2)

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8

*Nevada 42 - SAN JOSE STATE 22—Chris Ault’s Nevada teams have never
been able to play the bully role as well away from home as they do in Reno. But
hard-pressed to get interested in fading San Jose bunch that can’t run worth a
lick (ranks 113th) and has pulled QB La Secla in last two games, not to mention
dropping 10 of last 11 vs. number. Wolf Pack bowl-eligible with win. TV—ESPN
(08-NEV. 41-Sjs 17...N.23-11 N.49/333 S.16/M23 S.20/41/0/301 N.15/31/0/192 N.0 S.1)
(08-NEVADA -14' 41-17 07-SJS +3' 27-24 06-NEVADA -13 23-7...SR:

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER..

EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Thursday,
November 5)...Note that road team has covered a rather remarkable
6 straight and 7of 8 in series. NIU 2-10 as Dekalb chalk since ‘06 (1-
1 TY). Tech edge-slight to EMU, based on series trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at TEMPLE (Thursday, November 5)...Owls
have won and covered last 2 vs. Miami-O. Al Golden on 14-5
spread run since LY. Owls 5-2 as chalk since LY. RedHawks 1-6
vs. line last 7 away from Yager Stadium. Tech edge-Temple,
based on series and team trends and ugh!

VIRGINIA TECH at EAST CAROLINA (Thursday, November
5)...Beamer 7-1 vs. line last 8 in revenge. But Beamer no covers
first 3 away from home TY. Skip 0-2 as dog TY but 20-7 in role
since arriving at ECU in ‘05. Tech edge-Skip, based on series
and team trends.

BOISE STATE at LA TECH (Friday, November 6)...Broncs
have covered 4 of last 5 in series. Boise 9-1 vs. line away since
‘08. Broncos on 19-6 spread run last 24 on board. LT 6-1 as home
dog since ‘06 and 6-1 vs. line at Joe Aillet since LY. Tech edgeslight
to Boise, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Spartans just 1-3
vs. line at home TY and 8-16 vs. number last 24 at East Lansing.
MSU also 4-14-1 vs. line last 19 as non-conference host. But
Broncos on 2-9 spread run last 11 since late ‘08. Tech edgeslight
to WMU, based on team trends.

UCONN at CINCINNATI...Home team has covered last 4 in series,
and Cincy looking for revenge after 40-16 loss LY. Bearcats 13-5
vs. line last 18 at Nippert, 8-4 last 12 as home chalk. Tech edge-
Cincy, based on series home trends.

SYRACUSE at PITT...Good bit f scheduling for Orange, playing
only second road game of season! ‘Cuse has covered last 2
meetings. ‘Stache, however, on 11-5 spread run since early LY
and has covered 4 of last 5 at Heinz Field. Tech edge-Pitt, based
on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Last 4 “under” in series. Cats have
won and covered last 2 at Iowa City. Cats have covered last 6 as
road dog since LY. Ferentz 6-10 vs. spread last 15 as home chalk.
Tech edge-NU, based on team and series trends.

ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA...Zook has covered last 2 in ‘09 but still
just 2-8 vs. number last 10 on board since late LY. Tech edgeslight
to Minnesota, based on Illinis negatives.

LOUISVILLE at WEST VIRGINIA...Kragthorpe just 1-6 last 7 as
visiting dog. Also no covers last 6 on Big East road. Bill Stewart,
however, just 3-7 as Morgantown chalk since LY and 6-13 overall vs.
line since ‘08. Tech edge-WVU, based on Louisville negatives.

MARYLAND at NC STATE...NCS 0-2 as chalk TY, now 1-8 in
role since ‘06. Pack also 0-3 vs. line at home TY after 5-1 mark LY.
Ralph has won last 3 vs. NCS although he didn’t cover LY. Tech
edge-slight to UM, based on team and series trends.

WAKE FOREST at GEORGIA TECH...Paul Johnson has covered
6 straight TY and is now 14-5 vs. line since arriving at GT LY. Paul
Johnson also 9-3 as chalk since LY. Grobe 3-5 vs. line TY only 1
cover last 5 as dog. Tech edge-GT, based on recent trends.

DUKE at NORTH CAROLINA...Duke 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 meetings
and 4-1-1 last 6 vs. neighbor. Cutcliffe 10-6 vs. line since arriving
at Duke LY, also 6-2-1 last 9 as dog. Heels 0-3 as chalk TY, 3-8
since LY, 4-12 since ‘06 in role. Tech edge-Duke, based on
series and team trends.

WISCONSIN at INDIANA...Badgers have bullied Hoosiers lately,
brutally winning and covering last 3 by whopping 140-40
combined margin. Tech edge-slight to UW, based on recent
series trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS...These are “crossover” SEC
foes. Hogs 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 meetings. Petrino 4-1 vs. line last
5 at Fayetteville. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas, based on
team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at IOWA STATE...ISU 5-3 vs. line TY for
Paul Rhoads and has covered last 2 at home. Tech edge-slight
to ISU, based on recent trends.

BAYLOR at MISSOURI...Tigers no covers last 4 as host and now
2-8 last 10 vs. number at home. Bears 6-2 vs. line on road for Art
Briles. Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA...Urban has routed Vandy the last
two meetings, covering both, although Dores have covered 3 of last
5 at Swamp. Bobby Johnson 8-1 vs. line last 9 as road dog, 6-0 last
6 as SEC road dog, 12-3-1 last 15 as SEC road dog. Tech edgeslight
to Vandy, based on team trends.

BYU at WYOMING... Wyo a surprising 6-1 vs. line TY for
Christensen. Bronco just 7-14 vs. line last 21 on board. Tech
edge-Wyo, based on team trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME...Ugh! Mids have covered last 8 trips to
ND. White-shirted team has covered last 6 in series as well. Mids
35-16 vs. line last 51 away frm Annapolis. Weis no covers last 6 as
chalk TY, 5-17 last 22 as home chalk or pick. Tech edge-Navy,
based on ugh.

RICE at SMU...Owls have won and covered last 3 and 6 of last
7 meetings. But Rice no covers last 5 or 7 of 8 on board TY. Tech
edge-SMU, based on recent Rice woes.

UTEP at TULANE...Wave no covers last 8 at Superdome since early
LY. Tulane 1-9 vs. line last 10 on board. But Mike Price 3-17 last 20 as
chalk! Tech edge-slight to UTEP, based on team trends.

LSU at ALABAMA...Road team 10-1-2 vs. line last 13 meetings.
Note Les Miles just 1-4 as dog since ‘06, however (0-1 TY). Little
Nicky just 7-10-1 vs. line at Tuscaloosa since ‘07. Tech edge-
LSU, based on series road trend.

UCF at TEXAS...UCF 5-1 vs. line TY and 10-5 last 15 as dog.
Mack, however, 6-1 vs. line last 7 hosting non-Big XII foes. Tech
edge-slight to UT, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at AKRON...Home team has covered last 4
meetings after road team had covered previous 6. Zips yet to cover
in new stadium (0-2) while Flashes on 6-0 spread uptick! Tech
edge-Kent State, based on team trends.

ARMY at AIR FORCE...Ugh! Force 11-1 SU last 12 meetings, 10-
2 vs. line last 12. Army on 1-6 spread run last 7 TY. Falcs 6-2 vs.
line laying 7 or more under Calhoun. Tech edge-Air Force,
based on ugh!

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder is back and hoping to
torture Jayhawks as he once did, winning and covering 10 straight
in series from ‘94-03. Mangino no covers last 5 TY; Snyder has
covered last 3 and 3 of last 5. Tech edge-Bill Snyder, based on
recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at NEBRASKA...OU has won last 4 and covered
last 3 meetings, although teams have only met 4 times since ‘01. Bo
Pelini 3-2 as dog but only 1-5 vs. line at home against Big XII foes.
OU has covered last 5 as Big XII visitor. Tech edge-OU, based on
team trends.

OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...Chalk has covered last 3
meetings. Tressel 11-4 vs. line last 15 away from Big Horseshoe,
3-3 as dog since ‘06. Shades has now covered last 4 on board
after 0-4 break from gate vs. line TY. Tech edge-slight to OSU,
based on team trends.

TCU at SAN DIEGO STATE...Home team has covered last 3 in
series (though TCU won all games handily). TCU 3-1 vs. line away
TY and now 15-6 last 21 as chalk overall. Tech edge-slight to
TCU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at IDAHO...Idaho 7-2 vs. line TY, but Pat Hill 4-0
vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent
trends.

NEW MEXICO at UTAH...Lobos 2-9 last 11 on board. Home team
has covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-Utah, based on Lobo
negatives.

WASHINGTON STATE at ARIZONA...Amazingly, WSU has
covered 9 of last 12 on board! UA, however, has covered 5 of last
6 meetings, and Mike Stoops now 10-2 vs. line last 12 as host (7-2
last 9 as pick or home chalk). Tech edge-UA, based on team
and series trends.

OREGON STATE at CAL...Tedford 0-3 SU and vs. line against
Mike Riley at Strawberry Canyon! Beavers 10-3 vs. line last 13
away from Corvallis and has covered last 5 on Pac-10 road. Tech
edge-OSU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON at UCLA...Sark 4-3 as dog TY after losing last 2.
Tech edge-slight to UW, based on recent trends.

OREGON at STANFORD...Ugh! Harbaugh and Tree have now
covered last 10 on Farm! Cardinal hasn’t beaten UO since Ty’s last
season of 2001 (also UO’s only loss that season) and had dropped
6 straight vs. line in series prior to covering LY at Eugene. Ducks,
however, have covered last 6 in ‘09. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at COLORADO...Ags now 5-10 vs. line last 15
away from College Station (3-5 under Sherman). Tech edgeslight
to CU, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Miami 2-1 vs. line as host TY but
only 8-16 vs. line last 24 in role. Canes just 9-22 last 31 as chalk. Al
Groh 3-0 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to Groh, based
on team trends.

MEMPHIS at TENNESSEE...Tigers have covered last 3 trips to
Knoxville, but 1-6 vs. line TY and 1-7 last 8 on board, also no covers
last 4 away from Liberty Bowl. Tech edge-slight to UT, based
on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON...Clemson has won and covered
last 3 in series at Death Valley and has covered 3 of last 4 meetings
overall. Dabo 5-1 vs. number last 6 as host since late ‘08. Tech
edge-slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Erickson just 4-8 as dog at
ASU since ‘07. Pete just 7-15 vs. line last 22 on Pac-10 trail by 8-2 vs.
line after loss. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on team trends.

PURDUE at MICHIGAN...After covering first 3 at home, Wolves
have dropped last 2 vs. number at Big House and are now 4-8 vs.
line at home under Rodriguez. Tech edge-slight to Purdue,
based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at UNLV... CSU just 2-7 vs. number as
visitor for Fairchild, and is 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY. Sanford 12-7 as
home dog since ‘05. Tech edge-UNLV, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at HAWAII...USU 10-1-1 vs. line last 12 on board.
Utags have also covered last 2 vs. Leahey. Tech edge-USU,
based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UAB...UAB 4-1 last 5 as home dog, but
Scnellenberger 7-3 last 10 as chalk. Owls won and covered LY.
Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at NORTH TEXAS...If Weatherbie a dog note 19-10
spread mark last 29 in role on road. Tech edge-ULM, especially
if dog, based on team trends.

TROY at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Tops 1-8 vs. line against Belt
foes since LY with the one cover coming against Troy! Trojans on
5-0-1 spread run last 6 TY and now 27-14-1 vs. number since ‘06.
Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at ARKANSAS STATE...Home team has
covered the last 3 meetings, though ASU just 5-12 vs. line since LY.
Tech edge-slight to ASU, based on series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU has
covered last 4 as chalk (3-0 TY). Tech edge-MTSU, based on
team trends.

NEVADA at SAN JOSE STATE (Sunday, November
8)...Pack no covers last 5 on road (0-3 TY) and 2-8 last 10 as
road chalk. SJSU, however, 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board, and
Pack has won and covered 6 of last 7 meetings. Tech edge-
Nevada, based on series trends

NFL

KANSAS CITY at JACKSONVILLE...J’ville now 2-9 vs. spread
as host since ‘08. Jags also no covers last 7 as home chalk. Tech
edge-Chiefs, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Note that underdog has covered
in first 7 Cincy games TY. Cincy “under” 2-2 at home TY but “under”
10-4 last 14 as host. Ravens 10-4 vs. line away for John Harbagh.
Ravens also “over” 3-0 away TY and “over’ 13-5 last 18 away!
Tech edge-Ravens and slight to “over,” based on team and
“totals” trends.

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS...Texans have mostly held their
own in series, 7-4-1 vs. line last 12 against Indy. Kubiak 9-5 vs. line
last 14 as dog (2-1 TY). Houston now “under” last 4 TY. Note Colts
only 4-9 vs. line last 13 as host. Tech edge-Texans, based on
team trends.

WASHINGTON at ATLANTA...Falcs 3-0 SU and vs. line at home
TY, now 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at Georgia Dome. Skins 1-6 vs. line
TY, 2-11-2 vs. number last 15 on board. Zorn also “under” 17-5-1
since LY. Tech edge-Falcons and “under,” based on team and
“totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY...Pack 2-0 as road chalk TY and now
17-6 vs. spread last 23 on road. Bucs 1-6 vs. line TY and have
dropped 6 straight vs. number at home. Tech edge-Pack, based on
team trends.

ARIZONA at CHICAGO...Cards have covered first 3 as dog TY
and are 6-0 vs. number last 6 as short. Tech edge-Cards, based on
recent trends.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND...Dolphins surprising 3-0-1 vs. line last
4 at Foxborough. Dolphins “under” 6-1 last 7 away. Tech edgeslight
to Dolphins and “under,” based on series and “totals”
trends.

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS...Saints 6-0 SU and vs. line TY
and looking to reverse recent series pattern that’s seen Carolina
cover 4 of last 5. Saints also “over” 19-8 last 27 since late ‘07 and
“over” 13-3 last 16 at home (prior to Falcs Nov. 2). Panthers “over”
7-1 last 8 away. Tech edge-Saints and “over,” based on team
and “totals” trends.

DETROIT at SEATTLE...Lions 0-3 vs. line away TY. Lions “over” 2-
1 away TY and “over” 12-3 last 15 as visitor. Tech edge-Seahawks
and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at SAN FRANCISCO...Singletary 5-1-1 vs. line last 7
as host and 10-3-2 last 15 on board since mid ‘08. Tech edge-
49ers, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO at NY GIANTS...Norv “over” 9-3 last 12 since late LY
but only 3-6 vs. spread last 9 as visitor. Giants “over” 6-2 TY. Tech
edge-“Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA...Birds have covered last 3 and 5 of
last 6 in series. Andy Reid 9-3 vs. line last 11 as host. Last 4
meetings “over” at Linc. Wade Phillips 4-10 vs. points last 14 on
road. Tech edge-Eagles and “over,” based on team, and
“totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at DENVER (Monday, November 9)...Denver 6-1
SU and vs. line to begin ‘09, also “under” 6-1 TY and “under” 14-5
last 19. If Steelers dog note 5-1 mark last 6 in role, but they’re 0-3
vs. line away TY and no covers last 5 away from home. Tech
edge-Broncos and “under,” based on team and “totals”
trends.

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

DUKE
Certain Rivalry Underdogs are usually worth a look, and Duke
has been one of those in its recent meetings vs. Tobacco Road rival
North Carolina. The nearby neighbors square off again Saturday at
Chapel Hill, and once more the Blue Devils look to provide good
value. Please note Duke’s 3-0-1 spread mark its last four meetings
vs. the Tar Heels, and 4-1-1 vs. the line its last six. The Blue Devils
are also 6-2-1 vs. the line as an underdog since HC David Cutcliffe
arrived last season. Meanwhile, UNC has been an underachiever
as chalk, failing to cover its first three as a favorite this season, 8 of 11
since a year ago, and 10 of 13 tries since HC Butch Davis arrived in ‘07.

WYOMING
One of the real pointspread revelations this season has been
Wyoming, which has been a constant overachiever for new HC
Dave Christensen. The Cowboys have covered their last five and
six of their first seven on the board this season, and look to extend
that success Saturday at Laramie against visiting BYU. Meanwhile,
the Cougars have underachieved lately, covering just 7 of their last
21 on the board and only 4 of their last 12 away from Provo.

LSU
The form chart in the SEC recommends taking the visitor
whenever LSU faces Alabama. And that sounds like a good idea
once more when the teams tussle this Saturday at Tuscaloosa.
Please note that the road team has dropped only 1 of the last 13
spread decisions in this old rivalry (visitor 10-1-2 vs. number), with
the Tigers unbeaten vs. the number their last six at Bryant-Denny
Stadium. Also note that the Crimson Tide has covered just 6 of its
last 18 as host for HC Nick Saban. LSU qualifies as a featured
recommendation in both the Power Underdogs and Power
Revenge systems this week.

UNLV
As the season progresses, several “go against” situations arise.
One of those would seem to involve Colorado Sate, whose season
has unraveled amidst six straight defeats, including a 1-5 spread
mark and no covers in the last three of those losses. When
including a poor -16.75 "AFS" (Away From Spread) mark the last
two games, we’re inclined to look against the Rams Saturday night
at Sam Boyd Stadium vs. UNLV. Keep in mind that CSU has really
struggled on the road since HC Steve Fairchild arrived last year,
dropping 7 of 9 vs. the number as visitor. As for the Rebels, please
note their 12-7 home dog mark since HC Mike Sanford arrived in 2005.

PITT.-DENVER “UNDER”
One of the most compelling “totals” trends in the NFL this season
continues to be the “under” in games involving Denver, which
hosts Pittsburgh Monday night. The Broncos are “under” 6-1 this
campaign and 14-5 their last 19 since early last season, as well as
“under” 8 of their last 9 at Invesco Field.

PLAYBOOK

Thursday, November 5

NO ILLINOIS over E Michigan by 21
Ever imagine what the sound of Huskies moving cautiously sounds like? Well,
wonder no longer. Still-dreaming-of-a-MAC-title Northern Illinois fi nds itself in
the fi rst of two potential ‘speed traps’ before closing out the regular season
with make-or-break dates at Ohio U and Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan’s
4-0 ATS mark in the last four series games makes them a sexy proposition here
but the fact that the Eagles have allowed season-high (or second-high) total
yards in fi ve of their last six games in ’09 does not. Yes, NIU owns a dreadful 1-5
ATS at home vs. an opponent off a double-digit loss but EMU just so happens to
be riding a 9-game SU losing streak. Move out of here quickly!

TEMPLE over Miami Ohio by 10
To Whom It May Concern: Don’t let Brad Lidge anywhere near the Owls’
facilities for the sake of HC Al Golden’s sanity. Holy Jello Pudding! Temple, now
favored off back-to-back SU underdog wins, has won six straight games and
is bowl eligible for the fi rst time since Rocky Balboa was hanging out in meat
lockers. Beware, though, because the Owls just might be as uncomfortable in
this role as John Kruk appears in a suit and tie. Temple sits at 2-6 ATS as favorites
of 8 points or more vs. an opponent with at least one win on the season and our
PLAYBOOK.com database reminds us that favorites off consecutive SU upset
wins with fi ve or less wins the previous season are a woeful 16-35 ATS when off
a conference victory. The RedHawks are 0-2 SU and ATS the last two years in the
series but both losses came with Miami playing the favorite. Despite a dismal
1-8 SU record this season, the RedHawks have logged some impressive numbers
in the stat department and could hand around under the number tonight.

Va Tech over EAST CAROLINA by 13
We’ve all wished we could turn back the calendar at one point or another...
even Frank Beamer’s Hokies. Just over three weeks ago, the Gobblers were
ranked #4 in the country and entertained serious aspirations of landing in the
BCS title game while hobnobbing with Erin Andrews. Today, the 5-3 Gobblers
fi nd themselves tumbling out of sight in the ACC. Virginia Tech needs to win out
to post a sixth straight season of 10-plus victories and gain its annual invitation
to go bowling. Though only 4-4 ITS (In The Stats) this season, the Techsters can
take solace in the fact that HC Beamer is 37-11-2 ATS with revenge vs. .500 or
greater opposition, including 14-2 ATS when his Hokies are off a loss. Va Tech
is also 6-1 ATS as road favorites of seven or more points and 14-4 SU and ATS
on Thursdays The C-USA East Division-leading Patched Eyes fi ght back with an
11-0 ATS log as dogs of three or more points off a SU and ATS win and a 5-1 ATS
mark as home dogs of seven points or more. East Carolina downers? They’re
0-7 ATS vs. non-conference revenge (they upset the Hokies in last year’s season
opener) and 1-5 ATS on Thursday nights. While Dave Parker’s Best Buddies may
look somewhat appetizing in this matchup, it’s diffi cult to fade Beamer with
revenge off a loss. Like Nanci Griffi th once sang, we’ll observe this one “from
a distance.”

Friday, November 6

Boise St over LA TECH by 14
The Broncos are actually looking up at WAC-leading Nevada but it’s the BCS
Standings that matter most right now in Boise. Papa Smurf (Chris) Petersen
still has his horses thinking about crashing another BCS party with their
unblemished record but his week’s computer crunching has seen BSU slide all
the way down to #7 in the Big Boy rankings. A word of caution here: Boise is
playing its fi fth game on the road in seven weeks and OUR computers tell us
that 8-0 or better road favorites are just 42-65-3 ATS against .300 or greater
opposition. Louisiana Tech, 3-1 ATS in the last four series games, is 4-1 ATS as
double-digit home dog and 6-3 ATS on weekdays. Like playing with fi re? The
Techsters supply the spark.

Saturday, November 7

MICHIGAN ST over W Michigan by 16
Not even a return to East Lansing from Magic Johnson would help cool the heat
surrounding Mark Dantonio. A bowler in his fi rst two seasons at Michigan State,
the Spartans head coach has been roundly criticized recently for supposedly
bad clock management and an unimaginative – and unproductive – offense.
MSU stumbled to a 1-3 start but was seemingly on the comeback trail with
three straight wins to start October before falling to conference foes Iowa and
Minnesota. Western Michigan is 7-3 ATS as a dog of more than seven points
vs. a Big 10 opponent but the Broncos have allowed season high total yards in
their last two games. With MSU facing a non-conference foe in the middle of a
league sandwich, our advice here is to take it or leave it.

CINCINNATI over Connecticut by 10
What were we talking about earlier? Another potential BCS party crasher,
the Bearcats should use caution and look both ways before moving forward
here. UConn, losers of two straight and still battling the emotional hurdle of
Jasper Howard’s death three weeks ago, suffered a brutal last-second loss at
home vs. Rutgers last week and needs two wins in its last four to become bowl
eligible. UC could be in reload situation with the possible return of star QB Tony
Pike; however, HC Brian Kelly is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with revenge vs. an
opponent off a SU and ATS loss. And we would be remiss not to point out that
Connecticut HC Randy Edsall is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on
page 2. The upset bird might be humming here

PITTSBURGH over Syracuse by 21
Heck, apparently the theme this week is “make sure to look both ways.” And
that theme screams danger ahead for ‘Mr. Milk” Wannstedt as he takes to the
sidelines at Heinz Field. All right, so ketchup and a glass of cow spray isn’t exactly
the breakfast of champions but with so much on the line for the Panthers, they
need to fi nd the right recipe and avoid their typical late-season meltdown.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a loss under Wannstedt and
also 8-2 ATS at home with conference revenge. Syracuse, playing only its second
game away from the Carrier Dome this season, is 2-7 ATS as conference dogs
of 15 points or more and hasn’t exactly been too competitive since an OT loss
in the season-opener. Would love to back the black cats against the crumbling
‘Cuse but the price is just a bit rich for our blood. Pass.

IOWA over Northwestern by 13
After Bill Lynch and his Hoosiers took the Hawkeyes for a trip to the haunted
house last week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Northwestern spring another
trap in Iowa City. Iowa, which has trailed in every game this season, stepped in
and out of the fi re for the entire contest with Indiana until some help from the
black-striped zebras turned the tide (it’s becoming apparent the Big 10 wants
an undefeated team to challenge in the BCS polls, isn’t it?). The Hawkeyes don’t
bring much positive pointspread history to this fray. They’re 1-5 ATS as doubledigit
conference favorites and 0-4 ATS in conference home games off a home
date – plus it’s almost a certainty that Iowa will be looking past the Wildcats
to next week’s HUGE showdown at the ‘Shoe with Ohio State. Northwestern
is 3-1 ATS the last four games in this series but could be without the services
of starting QB Mike “Don’t Call Me Franz” Kafka, who left last week’s contest
against Penn State with a leg injury. But even if Kafka is unable to go, we’re still
going to take the points and nothing else.

Illinois over MINNESOTA by 1
Welcome to the “OH HELL… IF WE’RE GOING DOWN, WE MIGHT AS WELL TAKE
SOMEONE WITH US” Bowl. Pink-slip-in-waiting-coach No. 1 Ron Zook, whose
recruiting prowess has resulted in just 20 wins in four-plus seasons with Illinois,
has guaranteed himself a fourth losing season in fi ve years in Champaign. But
things aren’t going a whole lot better in Gopher-ville right now either. Pinkslip-
in-waiting-coach No. 2, Tim Brewster, is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than
seven points as the Gophers suit up for the 10th straight time with no rest.
However, Illinois is 11-4 ATS as a road dog vs. an opponent off a win and
outstatted the Gophers 550-312 in a 27-20 defeat as 12.5 home favorites last
year. The Fighting Illini is coming off a win over Michigan – a shocker that
might have moved Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh a little closer to Ann Arbor and
Rich Rodriguez a little further toward the unemployment line. Regardless of all
the crazy coaching scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks, we
look for the Gophers to crawl back into their hole today.

W VIRGINIA over Louisville by 18
Tough task for the Mountaineers to get back up after falling fl at at South
Florida last week. Riding into Tampa with a four-game win streak, West
Virginia simply could not solve Bulls’ freshman QB B. J. Daniels, while WVU
RB Noel Devine found no openings in the USF defense. The Mounties have
defeated Louisville three of four times but they’re a feeble 1-10 ATS in their
last 11 games as conference home favorites and 1-7 ATS at home when going
into conference revenge. Who knows where the Mountaineers’ heads will
be at with mighty Cincinnati up next and the Bulls in their rear view mirror?
Louisville, 5-2 ATS as the series dog, is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when taking
doubles. Problem is, current coach Steve Kragthorpe has had NOTHING to do
with compiling positive stats since his arrival in Kentucky. No interest in this
one.

NC STATE over Maryland 1
Turtles HC Ralph Friedgen had to really convince himself last season that
surrendering offensive coordinator duties was in the best interest of the
team. The move turned out to be the right one as Maryland won eight games,
including four straight victories over ranked teams. Now that move seems
like a century ago: Maryland has logged only two wins in 2009, including one
over James Madison, and arrives here 1-5 ATS as a dog with rest. The Terps,
though, are 3-1 ATS away in the series and 11-1-1 ATS off back-to-back losses.
NC State enters on a four-game losing skid and the Pack’s 1-17 ATS badge of
shame as ACC chalk of 3 or more points means they’re the answer to this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3). Fade the Pack!

GA TECH over Wake Forest by 16
Is anybody still questioning the effectiveness of Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson’s
option offense? The Jackets have won six straight games, including a victory over
then No. 4 Virginia Tech, and appear to be a BCS-worthy program. However,
Georgia Tech is 1-6 ATS as favorites off a non-conference road game and just
4-11 ATS as conference home favorites of seven points or more. The Demon
Deacons counter with some strong ATS ammo: they’re 4-1 ATS as double-digit
conference road dogs and head coach Jim Grobe is 5-1 SU in his career off
three straight losses. Wake fell asleep in the second half against Miami last
week and needs to score in two of their last three regular season games to
get a pin-dropping invite. But the Bees are hot and that makes this one a very
tough call.

N CAROLINA over Duke by 3
A meaningful Devils vs. Heels tilt and it’s not February? Thanks to star QB
Thaddeus Lewis and a stout defense, which has held their last three opponents
to season low – or second fewest – total yards, Duke owns its most wins in a
season since 2003 and is just two victories shy of a qualifying for Lane No. 1. The
Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS the last three in this series and 3-0 ATS the last three
here. How many times can the Tar Heels pump air into a set of leaky tires? A
week after blowing a three-touchdown lead against FSU, UNC stunned Virginia
Tech on the road. But North Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a conference favorite of
three or more points under HC Butch Davis so hoops be damned… we’ll be
Devilish and take the points.

Wisconsin over INDIANA by 10
Talk about getting off the deck. The Swiss Cheese Factory put together
their most complete effort of the year in goose-egging the Boilermakers
and stayed on track to go bowling for the fourth straight year since Bret
Bielema took over at Madison. The Badgers, faced with a revenger against
Michigan coming up, are 0-9 ATS off a win vs. an opponent with revenge
off a double-digit loss. Indiana HC Bill Lynch might want to start throwing
chairs after suffering back-to-back gut-wrenching defeats in which the
Hoosiers blew big leads. IU is playing its 10 straight game without rest here
and needs two more wins to reach the postseason promised land. Problem
is the Hoosiers might be running on empty. Let’s look elsewhere for a little
fuel.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

S Carolina over ARKANSAS by 7
The dark night of Knoxville scared the ball right of the Gamecocks’ hands
last week while the Hogs fattened up on a helping of Halloween cupcakes.
South Carolina, 5-1 SU after six games into the 2009 season, has dropped
two straight on the road and plays another in this spot. The Gamecocks,
who fumbled on their fi rst two offensive possessions at Tennessee and
never recovered, are 7-2 ATS away vs. conference revenge and 8-3 ATS
as a conference road dog of seven points or more. In addition, the Ol’
Ball Coach is 9-4 ATS away off an away game against a conference foe.
Arkansas is back at .500 after slapping 63 points on overmatched Eastern
Michigan, not exactly something to be real proud of. The Razorbacks,
who have allowed season-high total yards in the last two games, are
0-7 ATS at home with conference. With the SMART BOX calling out the
Cocks, and Petrino going up against Spurrier after the Hogs effortless
win, an upset is in order.

Wisconsin over INDIANA by 10
Talk about getting off the deck. The Swiss Cheese Factory put together
their most complete effort of the year in goose-egging the Boilermakers
and stayed on track to go bowling for the fourth straight year since Bret
Bielema took over at Madison. The Badgers, faced with a revenger against
Michigan coming up, are 0-9 ATS off a win vs. an opponent with revenge
off a double-digit loss. Indiana HC Bill Lynch might want to start throwing
chairs after suffering back-to-back gut-wrenching defeats in which the
Hoosiers blew big leads. IU is playing its 10 straight game without rest here
and needs two more wins to reach the postseason promised land. Problem
is the Hoosiers might be running on empty. Let’s look elsewhere for a little
fuel.

Oklahoma St over IOWA ST by 10
What are the chances the Cowboys won’t be too thrilled to come out fi ring a
week after getting poked by the Horns? Oklahoma State had a case of stage
freight from the opening bell as QB Zac Robinson found players wearing the
wrong color jersey four times – with two of those interceptions returned
for touchdowns. The ‘Boys, 12-1 ATS before Texas Tech and 6-1-2 ATS as
conference road favorites of 10 or more points, are also 5-1 ATS after Texas
and 4-1-1 ATS vs. conference revenge. Iowa State is just 1-5 ATS as home dogs
of 10 points or more and 1-4 ATS in the fi rst of consecutive home games. ISU
starting QB Austen Arnaud (bruised throwing hand) is expected to go against
the Cowboys after missing the last two games. Good for him. We’ll throw it

4* BEST BET

In need of a breather after climbing 150 set of stairs without a break?
Well, Missouri should know. The Tigers, losers of three straight games to
ranked opponents, unloaded early on Colorado with 33 straight points
last week before holding off a second half surge. Mizzou returns home
off back-to-back previous home losses after building a 19-1 SU mark at
Columbia in their prior 20 home games. The Tigers are also 11-4 ATS at
home vs. an opponent with revenge and have limited four of their last fi ve
foes to season low – or second low – total yards. Our powerful database
tells us that home teams off a SU and ATS win preceded by an 0-3 SU and
ATS record in their previous three games are a sterling 32-12-1 ATS vs. a
conference opponent off a loss. Baylor, 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven series
games and 0-4 ATS in the last four here, could qualify for a bowling trip
with a 3-1 fi nish but that would include a victory against Texas… and we
know that’s NOT going to happen. Tigers are GREATTTTTTTTT!
MISSOURI over Baylor by 27

FLORIDA over Vanderbilt by 31
The Gators not-so-offensive offense showed signs of life in last week’s
dismantling of the black shirts as Tim Tebow provided the Dawgs with plenty of
headaches. But that was then and this is now – and the ATS archives warn us that
Florida is 1-5 ATS at home in between road games and just 2-6 ATS as conference
home favorites of 21 points. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 5-1-1 ATS in their
last seven away against a conference foe and a sporty 6-1 ATS as a conference
road dog of 27 or more points. Still, this is Vandy we’re talking about so while
the points may look tempting, we’ll move on before it’s too late.

Byu over WYOMING BY 10
The Cougars have visions of posting another 10-win season – provided, of
course, that they close out the regular season with four straight wins (they will
be favored to do so). But beware: Steve Young’s Animal of Choice Foundation
is a miserable 0-9 ATS with rest during the regular season when its win
percentage is greater than .666. Wyoming lost 44-0 at BYU last year and is 15-3
ATS at home with revenge off a ATS win, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine.
With the Cowboys riding a fi ve-game ATS winning mount, we’re inclined to
take the points!

NOTRE DAME over Navy by 6
When the season kicked off, Notre Dame appeared to be saddled with
another one of its daunting schedules. But honestly… how do those losses
to Michigan and USC look now after both those teams got absolutely
ripped apart last weekend? The Irish are a shocking 1-14 ATS at home
vs. all military schools and just 2-10 ATS as a favorite when going into
revenge. Navy is 9-0 ATS in the last nine visits to South Bend and 6-1 ATS
as dogs off consecutive home games. Pretty easy, right? Before chanting
“Ship’s Ahoy,” however, check the status of Navy QB Ricky Dobbs before
reaching into your wallet.

SMU over Rice by 14
The .500 Mustangs have proved to be ‘consistently inconsistent’ under HC June
Jones. Just a one-win squad a year ago, SMU is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS as favorites
the last three seasons. Sally is also 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 11
points. Rice, 6-1 SU and ATS the last seven games in the series, is 4-0 SU and ATS
with rest under HC David Bailiff – but this year’s squad has been nothing short
of an absolute disaster. Since one team looks to be improving and the other
disintegrating, you might be inclined to mount up with Jones and his cavalry
here. But the bottom line is this is simply too much pointspread baggage for
these young ponies.

Texas El Paso over TULANE by 4
The defenseless Miners commence a stretch of three consecutive road games
here and need a 3-1 fi nish to become bowl eligible (the Fisher Price kids will
be favored In each game). The problem with the Miners is nobody with half a
brain should be laying points on the road with a defense that allows 471 YPG.
And for those who possess the other half of the brain in question, remember
that Tulane has been beaten more often this season than Joan Crawford’s
kids. If you somehow ignore reason and involve yourself with this game, don’t
be surprised to get a phone call next week from the rehab clinic

TEXAS over Central Florida by 31
Sad to think what Texas QB Colt McCoy might do to this raw secondary after
having his own defense come to the rescue last week (UT’s defense returned
two interceptions for TDs against Oklahoma State). The Horns are 11-1 ATS
at home off back-to-back road games and 7-3-1 ATS as non conference home
favorites of 28 or more points. They are, however, just 4-9 ATS after Oklahoma
State. Meanwhile, UCF is 7-2 ATS in Game Nine of the season and catches UT
in a potential fl at spot. Good Knight; turn out the light when you leave the
room.

Kent St over AKRON by 6
The Flashes are on a roll with three straight wins, including holding each
opponent under 300 yards, and they’ve cashed fi ve straight ATS tickets. The
Zips, however, are in the deep end of a six-game skid (1-5 ATS), having fallen to
pieces since losing starting QB Chris Jacquemain to a season-ending suspension.
Despite the fact that the host in this series is 3-0 ATS (all as a dog), we can only
look one way here.

AIR FORCE over Army by 13
The Falcons’ side-to-side defense hasn’t allowed more than 23 points in a game
all season but will be put to the test against a strong rushing attack. Air Force
is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series games but only 1-6 ATS in its last seven games
vs. a rested opponent. The Cadets counter at 13-3 ATS as dogs of 17 points or
more off a SU and ATS loss, including 7-0 ATS away. Army plays with a week
of rest as opposed to the Falcons, who are playing their 10th straight game.
Surprisingly, the Cadets have held three foes to season-low yardage totals this
season. We’re in the Army, now.

KANSAS ST over Kansas by 3
Don’t reach for the eyeglasses. The Wildcats, who lost two of three games
to start the season (including a puzzling loss to Louisiana Lafayette) are
actually LEADING the Big 12 North! KSU stands 6-1 ATS in the last seven
series games at Manhattan and has been favored in last eight home games
vs. KU (Wildcats won straight-up the last two times they were installed
as a home dog in this series). So why is it that the division cellar dweller
(Kansas) is laying points to the division leader? It’s called perception. With
the Jayhawks on a three-game losing streak and just 1-11 ATS away off
back-to-back SU and ATS losses, we’ll do what comes natural and take the
points.

NEBRASKA over Oklahoma by 1
The Cornhuskers can do some serious reputation restoration here after laying
a gargantuan egg several weeks ago at Iowa State and sending a promising
season spinning in reverse. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve series games and
3-0 ATS as a dog against sub .727 opposition off a win of more than 10 points.
The Cornhuskers are also 5-1 ATS at home in between road games and 4-1
ATS as a home dog of 10 points or more. Oklahoma, with three losses on the
season and going nowhere fast, is 0-4 ATS away in Game Nine. Cornhuskers,
by an ear!

3* BEST BET
A solid ‘Game of the Week’ candidate fi nds the Top 10 Tigers heading
into Alabama for a game that could decide the SEC West and earn the
winner a date with Florida in the SEC Championship. LSU brings plenty of
good numbers into this batt;e, starting with its 4-0-2 ATS mark the last six
games as a series visitor and 18-8 ATS record in the SEC as a road dog with
revenge, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four. The Bengals are also
9-2 ATS away off a home game and 9-3 ATS as a conference dog of seven
points or more. In addition, the Striped Cats have allowed a mere 9 PPG in
the last four games and have held six opponents to 13 points or less points
this season. Alabama answers at 0-5 ATS as conference home favorite of
10 points or more and Bama HC Nick Saban is only 3-7 ATS in his college
career when favored by less than 13 points and playing with rest during
the regular season. More important, Alabama’s offense has taken a step
back in recent weeks with an average of 329.5 YPG as opposed to 490.5
YPG in the fi rst four games of the season. Rest doesn’t help the Tide in
this spot, it merely breaks the momentum. And with help from this week’s
AWESOME ANGLE , another one bites the dust.

Ohio St over PENN ST by 3
The Jimmies have rebounded with two consecutive wins after fl ushing away
their season at Purdue and look to avenge last year’s only home loss in this spot.
The Buckeyes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS with revenge, including 6-1 SU and 7-0
ATS the last seven under the sweatered professor (5-0 ATS with conference
revenge). Penn State is 0-4 ATS when going into conference revenge and 1-8
ATS as a home favorite vs. 700 or greater opposition off a SU and ATS win. Can
you see where we’re going here? One fi nal thought: the Lions are 1-10 ATS
as favorites versus opponents off a win that allow 12 or less PPG on the season.
You know what to do.

Tcu over SAN DIEGO ST by 20
Another ‘enter at your own risk’ special. That’s because the undefeated Frogs
are 2-7 ATS as road favorites of 14 points or more and could be feeling the
pressure. San Diego State, vastly improved this season under new coach Brady
Hoke, is 4-0 ATS at home in the series and 7-2 ATS in the second of consecutive
home games. Considering the Frogs might already be looking ahead to a major
revenger with Utah, we’ll go to bat with the bowl-seeking Aztecs.

Fresno St over IDAHO by 4
The Bulldogs have won four straight games and are heading up the hill after a
slow start. With remaining dates against Illinois and La Tech, FSU could very well
win out to the close the regular season tab. The problem we face is the ‘Dogs
2-17 ATS mark as a favorite off an ATS loss. The Potato Heads are showing
signs of a team beginning to unpeel as they have allowed four of their last fi ve
opponents season high – or second high – yardage. Still, it’s hard to fade a team
that’s unbeaten on its home fi eld in 2009 and we won’t start here.

UTAH over New Mexico by 24
The Utes will be looking to maneuver around those yellow ‘Wet’ standing
plaques here with their entire season on the line against TCU next week. Utah,
on a fi ve-game win streak since getting punched out in Oregon, is 1-3-1 ATS as
a favorite before facing the Frogs. New Mexico, despite a winless 0-8 mark, is
improving under HC Mike Locksley as the Lobos have allowed an average of
just 367 YPG. They’ve also netted +1 on the turnover margin ratio the last fi ve
games as opposed to 487 YPG and -7 in the fi rst three contests. At 11-1 ATS with
revenge vs. an opponent off back-to-back wins, they could get our attention
in this Utah fl at spot.

ARIZONA over Wash St by 27
The Wildcats have won two straight games, are moving up in the polls and with
another win can secure a second consecutive trip to the bowling alley. However
this is a ‘danger area’ if there ever was one for the ‘Cats. Arizona has monster
balls on-deck with California and Oregon so it would be no surprise if they play
‘down-to-the-competition’ today. The Kitty Kats are 7-18 ATS as home favorites
of three or more points and aren’t overly excited about this Cougar invasion.
Washington State, 5-1 ATS as a dog in the series, has cashed fi ve of the last six
games. Enter the den at your own risk.

CALIFORNIA over Oregon St by 7
The Beavers have scored wins three of the last four times out but need to keep
ringing them up for bowl positioning purposes. Oregon State is 3-0 ATS in the
last three on this fi eld, and tied with California at 3-2 in the Pac 10, the Beavers
need another win in the worst way. California, though, is 9-2 ATS as a home
favorite vs. 666 or greater opposition – including 4-0 ATS in the last four. Tough
call – one we’re not making.

UCLA over Washington by 4
The ‘All-Downhill’ Bowl features a pair of teams that are rapidly fl at-lining and
in need of an immediate transfusion. After a promising 3-0 start, the Cubbies
fell off-kilter and have since taken up residence at the Milton Bradley Clinic.
The Bruins are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 series games, including 5-1 ATS in the last
six. Currently on a fi ve-game SU and ITS losing skid, UCLA needs at least three
wins to repair a clean imagine gone bad. The same can be said for Washington,
who started the season 2-1 before dropping four of its last fi ve contests. The
Huskies have been outgained in seven straight games and are 1-9 ATS in the
last 10 as a road dog. Stay away!!

STANFORD over Oregon by 1
Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh will likely have a new address in a nice upscale
neighborhood in a few months but before he calls the moving van why
not leaving a parting gift? Stanford, currently residing in 3rd place in
the PAC 10, knows a win today puts them position to capture conference
honors should the Ducks get roasted in any of their fi nal three games. The
Cardinal, 3-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games and 9-3 ATS
off a SU conference win of 17 or more points, is 12-5 ATS at home under
Harbaugh – including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 games. Oregon
takes to the road off its mighty upset win at home over USC last week. Our
database warns us that teams who beat USC are 11-22 SU and ATS in their
next game, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS when playing off four wins or
more in a row. Harbaugh leaves a lasting memory.

Texas A&M over COLORADO by 4
A 4-8 record for openers wasn’t what anybody had in mind when new sheriff
Mike Sherman rolled into town. But all is well a year later as the 5-3 Aggies ride
a two-game win streak into this one and could hammer down a bowl invite
with a couple more W’s. However, Tammy is 2-6 ATS in this series and an awful
0-9 ATS off a double-digit win vs. an opponent with revenge. But the Buffs are a
mess around the kitchen table lately and Papa Hawkins might soon be begging
for food. Colorado is also 3-13 ATS as dogs with revenge. No thanks!

MIAMI FLA over Virginia by 10
It’s nice to have an abundance of talented players that can erase an afternoongone-
bad with just a few plays. Ditto UM last week in Winston-Salem, after
practically handing the game over to Wake Forest. Concern today is that
Miami was outgained, 555-356, in a one-point win over Wake Forest last
week and has allowed season-high total yardage in its last two games. The
Hurricanes will be without three defensive starters once again in this spot so
trusting them to lay points will be tough, especially in conference where HC
Randy Shannon is 3-12 ATS, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than six
points. While beginning to slide, Virginia is 3-1 ATS ithe last four in the series
and 5-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Cavs aren’t much but a 5-1-2
ATS mark as double-digit conference road dogs secures our attention. Until
Miami’s defense gets it act together, we’re forced to take it or leave it.

TENNESSEE over Memphis by 20
The Vols host the Tigers in this in-state tilt on the heels of an 18-point win
over South Carolina, a game in which Tennessee was outstatted. As you know,
we’re not keen on prohibitive homecoming favorites, especially those locked
in the middle of a conference sandwich. UT’s 4-12 ATS mark as double-digit
home chalk off a win only makes maters worse. Look for Elvis U to improve
to 7-1 ATS in this series – and 5-0 ATS in Knoxville – in this made-to-order
letdown special.

CLEMSON over Florida St by 13
‘In (Christian) Ponder We Trust’ should be the new motto making the rounds in
Tallahassee after what the Noles’ QB has managed to pull off the last several
weeks. Still, the Seminoles have allowed season-high yardage in two of the last
three games while surrendering a total of 118 points. In addition, FSU is 1-7 ATS as
a dog of four or more points vs. an opponent with revenge. Clemson, at 5-3 this
season with road dates at NC State and South Carolina remaining on the schedule,
could still make a serious push into the bowling alley. The Tigers, whose 14-point
loss to the Seminoles last year snapped a 3-0 SU and ATS series streak, have held six
of eight opponents to season low – or second low – yards this season. Bottom line
here is the avenging Tiger ‘D’ is 157 YPG better than Bobby Bo’s.

TULSA over Houston by 3
Holy Toledo! Tulsa HC Todd Graham might have set the bar a little too
high for himself with 21 wins in two years. But the Golden Hurricane’s
best-case scenario would be to win out and head back to the bowling
alley. Tulsa is 9-0 ATS at home vs. 500 or greater conference opposition
off a win and also 7-3 ATS at home with conference revenge. The Golden
Hurricane could be without the services of QB G. J. Kinne, so check before
playing. Houston is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite or road dog of three points
or more and just 1-6 ATS away vs. conference revenge and 2-6 ATS in games

5* BEST BET
Suddenly, it’s back to long hours for the Wolves. Michigan, on a twogame
losing skid – including a drubbing at Illinois last week – is 8-0 ATS
as a home favorite of less than 27 points against sub .500 conference
opposition, with every win coming by 12 points or more. Michigan, 48-
42 losers at Purdue a year ago, is also 4-0 SU and ATS with revenge vs.
the Boilermakers, outscoring Purdue 137-17 in these payback affairs. The
Wolves need this one to become bowl eligible, especially with Wisconsin
and Ohio State coming up. Purdue obliges at 0-17 SU the last 17 games in
Ann Arbor, including 0-4 ATS the last four here. The Boilers are also 3-11-1
ATS as dogs off a DD ATS loss, including 0-6 ATS away. The Wolverines
stay after practice and offi cially sign up for the bowling season in this,
their biggest game of the campaign. May the Forcier be with you.

Colorado St over UNLV by 3
These Rams aren’t built tough. Colorado State, with plenty of history in this
series (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve, including 6-0 SU here), has been
outgained by over 100 yards in each of its last four games. UNLV is going
nowhere fast and from our database comes the revelation that home teams
are 15-25 ATS after taking on Gary Patterson’s TCU Frogs, including 10-18 ATS
in conference play. That being said, we’ll take a seat on the sidelines.
HAWAII over Utah St by 3
How the mighty have fallen. The Rainbows, 3-1 SU in the series – including a
SU loss as six-point road favorites a year ago – were 40-point home favorites
here vs. Utah State in 2007! Today, they are a home dog. The closest Hawaii has
come to ending their current skid was last week in a respectable 10-point loss to
Nevada (as 30-point dogs). The Aggies, 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as road
favorites, laid 10 points at New Mexico State earlier this year and lost the whole
game. Utah State is 3-33 SU away since 2004. No way can we trust the Aggies
laying points away from Logan. History has spoken

ADDED GAMES
Fla Atlantic over UAB by 3
Losing to defenseless Middle Tennessee is one thing but watching QB Rusty
Smith (non-throwing shoulder) go down is another. The Owls, needing a 4-2
fi nish to qualify for a bowling ticket, were left to move on their fi nal drive of
the game without Smith. FAU, 10-5 SU in the fi nal fi ve games of the season
the last three years, is still holding on to hope despite a 2-5 record staring
them in the face, and now turn to redshirt Jr. QB Jeff Van Camp. UAB, losers
of six straight ITS, has allowed season-high total yards the last two games. The
Blazers lost to SMU as 11-point favorites the last time they were installed in that
role. With or without Smith, FAU gets the call.
La-Monroe over N TEXAS by 7
The .500 Warhawks, riding a two-game losing skid after winning three straight,
can’t afford stumbling in this spot if they have any intentions of a trip to the
postseason, which at this point looks remote at best. North Texas, 0-10 SU and
1-9 ATS in games off a win, has surrendered season high – or second high –
yardage in fi ve of the last six games. With UNT head coach Todd Dodge likely
on his way out of Denton soon, put your bucks on the Warhawks.
Troy over W KENTUCKY by 21
The Trojans have made it a six-pack of wins after opening the season by getting
tossed around at Bowling Green and Florida. Troy, unbeaten in the SBC, has a 1.5
game conference lead and appears on its way to a third bowl appearance in four
years. Only wet spot could be a revenger with Arkansas on deck. The Hilltoppers
are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as dogs of more than 20 points. So what?

ARKANSAS ST over La-Lafayette by 10
The Red Wolves are two of three sleeping in their own beds this season. Problem
is the wins came against Mississippi Valley State and Florida International.
Arkansas State, 1-3 ATS in the last four series games and 1-5 ITS in the last six
games, has dropped four of fi ve and is not scaring anybody. Louisiana Lafayette,
1-6 ITS in their last seven games, might be a bit over their heads here for a just
a two-win squad off an overtime loss.
MIDDLE TENN ST over Florida Int’l by 10
Perhaps Don Strock has run out of golf tournaments to hawk. Oh well, at the
very least Mario Cristobal’s promise of being bigger and stronger is holding up.
After playing fi ve of seven away from Calle Ocho headquarters, the Pussycats
fi nally held up in crunch time to post just their fourth win in 14 tries. Florida
International is 3-1 ATS in the series and is 5-0 ATS off back-to-back ATS losses
under Cristobal. Middle Tennessee is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 13 points
or more and 1-5 ITS in the last six games. Not even the mayor would want to
vote here

Sunday, November 8
Nevada over SAN JOSE ST by 17
So just how bad is the San Jose State rush defense? Let’s put it this way: if THESE
were the Spartans that had been assigned to halt Xerxes and his Persian hordes
at the Battle of Thermopylae, Hollywood would NOT have been interested in
making a fi lm of their exploits. In fact, we’d be hard-pressed to fi nd a matchup
this weekend with a more pronounced gap between one team’s ability to run
the ball and their opponent’s ability to stop it. Nevada boasts the top ranked
rush unit in the nation at 319 yards per game while SJSU’s run ‘D’ get slashed
for a whopping 243 yards per contest (only Western Kentucky is worse!). Add
the fact that Sparty is 0-6 SU and ITS vs. lined foes this season and we’re all over
Nevada to cash its SEVENTH ticket in the last eight series meetings. Wolf Pack!

ADDED GAMES

Fla Atlantic over UAB by 3
Losing to defenseless Middle Tennessee is one thing but watching QB Rusty
Smith (non-throwing shoulder) go down is another. The Owls, needing a 4-2
fi nish to qualify for a bowling ticket, were left to move on their fi nal drive of
the game without Smith. FAU, 10-5 SU in the fi nal fi ve games of the season
the last three years, is still holding on to hope despite a 2-5 record staring
them in the face, and now turn to redshirt Jr. QB Jeff Van Camp. UAB, losers
of six straight ITS, has allowed season-high total yards the last two games. The
Blazers lost to SMU as 11-point favorites the last time they were installed in that
role. With or without Smith, FAU gets the call.

La-Monroe over N TEXAS by 7
The .500 Warhawks, riding a two-game losing skid after winning three straight,
can’t afford stumbling in this spot if they have any intentions of a trip to the
postseason, which at this point looks remote at best. North Texas, 0-10 SU and
1-9 ATS in games off a win, has surrendered season high – or second high –
yardage in fi ve of the last six games. With UNT head coach Todd Dodge likely
on his way out of Denton soon, put your bucks on the Warhawks.

Troy over W KENTUCKY by 21
The Trojans have made it a six-pack of wins after opening the season by getting
tossed around at Bowling Green and Florida. Troy, unbeaten in the SBC, has a 1.5
game conference lead and appears on its way to a third bowl appearance in four
years. Only wet spot could be a revenger with Arkansas on deck. The Hilltoppers
are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as dogs of more than 20 points. So what?
after Southern Miss. Can’t summon the strength to lay points with a road
team accompanied by a defense allowing 490 YPG to lined opponents this
season, especially against a home dog looking to avenge a 70-30 loss last
year as a road favorite! On Friday, we’ll only be 24 hours from Tulsa.

Usc over ARIZONA ST by 10
Safe bet there wasn’t any rapping or coaches’ fl ag football games on the
University of Spoiled Children campus this week. The Trojans, who have
mysteriously allowed season-high yardage in each of their last two games,
have now allowed more than 34 points in a game twice under Pete Carroll,
including the 47 laid on them in Eugene last week. To make matters worse, USC
is 1-6 ATS as a conference road favorite of 13 or more points (watch the line).
Arizona State is 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs of seven points or more and
suddenly owns the better defense in this game. With USC currently resting in
the Intensive Care Unit of the burn ward, we’ll back off for now.

JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City by 4
What was Jaguars’ OC Dirk Koetter thinking during last week’s 30-13 loss at
Tennessee, calling star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (173 total yards) number only
nine times (8 carries, 1 catch)? You can bet he won’t make the same mistake
this week as KC’s 25th-ranked rushing defense comes to town but that grindit-
out mentality may be just enough to keep this one inside the number. Our
PLAYBOOK.com database certainly thinks so as it notes the Jaguars are a putrid
0-6 ATS as favorites of 7 or more points off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-1 ATS
this year. By contrast, the Chiefs are a profi table 6-1 ATS as non-division RD’s
off a SU double-digit loss. While Matt Cassel and the KC offense has struggled
against the likes of Baltimore, San Diego and the entire NFC East, they should
fi nd the going a lot easier against a 23rd-ranked Jacksonville defense that has
allowed at least 379 yards of total offense in six of seven contests. Don’t expect
the Jaguars’ home-fi eld advantage to help much as Jack Del Rio’s bunch has
dropped 6 of 10 SU and 8 of 10 ATS in barren Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
The hosts nipped the Rams, 23-20, as substantial favorites in their last home
contest and a late FG may very well decide this one. It’s a take.

3* BEST BET
It appears the Packer’s 38-26 home loss to Minnesota may have put the
NFC North division to bed. But according to our ‘BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW’
article, it’s actually the sleep-walking Bucs who are getting the “Wake
Up Call” for this Week 9 matchup as it notes that home dogs of 6 or
more points with a week of rest awake with a 32-11 ATS bark. The Bucs,
themselves, have been solid coming off a Bye Week, posting a 4-1 ATS log
and are a perfect 7-0 ATS as dogs versus an opponent with revenge off
a SU favorite loss. We do expect the gutty Aaron Rodgers and the Pack
to bounce back from that Minny loss as they now go wildcard hunting.
However, our database tells us that they just can’t be trusted as doubledigit
favorites when taking on a foe off a double-digit SU loss as they
carry a 1-8 ATS weight. Green Bay HC Mike McCarthy has also struggled
against the NFC South with a 1-5 SU and ATS career record, including
0-4 SU and ATS last year. With an important battle against Dallas on
deck, we wouldn’t blame the Pack for looking past the winless hosts and
getting a little extra shut-eye as they miss this 1:00 PM wake-up call.
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY by 1

5* BEST BET
If you thought your fi rst wife was tough to comprehend, try fi guring out
the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears. The Cardinals have dropped three
of four SU at home, all as favorites, but are a perfect 3-0 SU on the road
– all as dogs! The Bears, meanwhile, handled the Super Bowl champion
Steelers but get blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals. Thank goodness we
can depend on our unattached PLAYBOOK.com database to sort out this
mess. For starters, it lets us know that non-division dogs off a SU loss as a
favorite of 7 or more points are 63-35-3 ATS – a solid 64% foundation.
It also informs us that the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss
(including 2-0 this year) while the Bears are 1-7 ATS at home in the month
of November off a non-division game versus an opponent off a SU loss.
Lovie’s Bears also haven’t fared well as favorites in the 2nd of back-to-back
homers, posting a Boo-Boo-like 0-4 ATS log. For more ammo, we turn to
our NFL Quarterback League inside our Sports Data Center at PLAYBOOK.
com and we fi nd that Chicago QB Jay Cutler is a pathetic 4-13-1 ATS as a
home favorite in his career as a starter – and that’s including 2 ATS wins
this year against the Lions and Browns! While we may not be able to help
you fi gure out an ex-wife or communicate with a teenage daughter, we let
our numbers do the talking when it comes to NFL – and our numbers tell
us another road win is in the ‘cards’ for Kurt and company.
Arizona over CHICAGO by 10

NEW ENGLAND over Miami by 7
You know Bill Belichick will have his defense prepared for anything this season
after they were caught off guard in last year’s 38-13 home loss to Miami when
the Fish unveiled the Wildcat. The Dolphins’ offense was anything but cat-like
in last week’s victory over the Jets but Ted Ginn and his family ran wild through
the Jet’s special teams and the 3-4 Dolphins fi nd themselves back in the AFC mix.
That win also bodes well for HC Tony Sparano as he is a perfect 5-0 ATS away off
a SU win. The Pats, meanwhile, enter with a week of rest after a paid vacation in
London in which Tom Brady had more than enough time to sit back and sip tea
while hitting open receivers during their rout of Tampa. In fact, if you include
their 59-0 thrashing of Tennessee, Bill’s crew hasn’t been challenged in a month.
While Belichick is a distinguished 12-1 ATS off a non-division double-digit ATS
win when tackling division foes, his Pats are just 1-6 ATS at home after allowing
10 or less points and their soft rush defense (4.5 YPR) will have trouble slowing
down Miami’s strong running game (4.6 YPR). One other interesting tidbit you
may want to keep in the memory bank: teams returning from London are just
1-3 SU in their next game and that one win was a 20-19 San Diego victory last
season as 14.5-point favorites. Give us the double-digit running dogs.

NEW ORLEANS over Carolina by 6
As catastrophic as the hurricane that blew through New Orleans three years ago
was, it was mild compared to the Brees that’s whipping through the city these
days. Yes, the Saints’ 7-0 start has frenzied fans on Bourbon Street thinking Super
Bowl. While that’s not a stretch, the fi rst chink in the armor occurred Monday
night when N’Awlins lost their fi rst paycheck this season. The spread loss to the
Falcons dropped the Saints to 1-13 ATS as division favorites of seven or more
points. They are also just 1-8 ATS when hosting a division foe off a SU and ATS
win. The Panthers enter revitalized off last week’s stirring win at Arizona and
are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in the Superdome. New Orleans was taken
to the wire against Atlanta. Expect more of the same here today.

SEATTLE over Detroit by 8
The separation of NFL ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ becomes even more apparent this
time of the season as the schedule is shortened because of Bye Week games.
There is no disguising the fact that these two teams have combined for three
wins this campaign, and just seven over the last season-and-a-half. So why is
it the oddsmaker has imposed a double-digit spread in this game? Maybe it’s
Detroit’s 0-3 SU and ATS mark on the road in 2009, by an average spread loss of
10 PPG. Or perhaps it’s the Lions’ 0-6 SU and ATS mark of late against teams
residing in the NFC West. We know it can’t be Seattle’s 1-12-1 ATS log as a
favorite of 10 or less points off a double-digit ATS loss… nor the Seahawks’
0-3 SU and ATS mark against the NFC North since 2008! Like we say, the loop
is fi lled with a lot of ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ and this is one game we will likely
‘not-have’ an interest in. Neither should you

4* BEST BET
Now that the Titans have the monkey off their back and Vince Young
back behind center, there is value-a-plenty to be found with the team
that was the top-seed in the AFC playoffs last season. For openers, the
Titans are 16-13 SU and 21-7-1 ATS as dogs in games off a double-digit
spread win under head coach Jeff Fisher, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS
off a SU win when facing a .600 or less opponent. In addition, Fisher is
21-7 ATS as a road dog versus an opponent off a loss, including 7-0 SU
and ATS when his team is off a SU and ATS win – impressive, to say the
least! While we’ve lauded Mike Singletary’s hire, the fact of the matter is
this: he’s 7-1-1 ATS when made the underdog but his troops are just 1-3-1
ATS as favorites of less than seven points. No surprise to see the Niners
drop to 1-6 SU in games against the AFC South Division here today. The
Young and the restless are making their move…

NY GIANTS over San Diego by 1
Oh my… how the mighty have fallen. Sitting atop the NFC hierarchy at 5-0 to
open the 2009 season, the Giants will take a three game SU and ATS losing
skein into this contest knowing QB Eli Manning has completed twice as many
passes to the opposition as he has thrown for touchdowns to teammates
during the slide. Our database does not support the gang from the Big Apple:
home favorites riding a 0-3 SU and ATS losing steak, with the last loss as a road
favorite, are just 4-12 ATS in non-division games. Meanwhile, the Bolts are 8-1
ATS off a win in games against the NFC East. You won’t fi nd us bobbing for
apples today.

PHILADELPHIA over Dallas by 6
A tip of the sombrero to the Eagles. They came up big last week without the
services of Brian Westbrook in a setting so good it saw the Giants move from
a 3-point dog to 2.5-point favorites by kickoff. As a result, this game pairs the
NFC East Division leaders with the Cowboys entering 0-6 ATS as dogs off backto-
back SU and ATS wins. Dallas is also 2-10 ATS as a road puppy in November
against an opponent off back-to-back wins. Philly counters at 5-0 ATS off a
division game when engaging an opponent that is off back-to-back wins. Don’t
count on a Giant letdown, either, as the Birds are 11-1 ATS in games after
battling Big Blue. Cheese steaks for everyone!

Monday, November 9

DENVER over Pittsburgh by 3
We felt like traitors last week when we ordered up the Ravens against our
Rocky Mountain money train. The feeling was that the week of rest would
prove to be a momentum breaker for Denver and it was. The same can be said
for the Steelers tonight. A 1-2 start was erased with a four-game win streak,
only to have the Bye Week barge in. It’s bad enough that defending Super
Bowl champions are just 7-18 ATS as road favorites when taking on a .727 or
greater foe. It’s even worse when that same opponent is off a loss (0-4 ATS).
Mike Tomlin chips in with a 1-9 ATS mark on the road off a win when taking
on an opponent of a loss. If that’s not enough, the Steelers are 1-8 ATS against
.700 or greater AFC competition. Denver’s 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS mark against
rested AFC opposition clinches it. Yes, we’re turncoats but at least we admit it.

POWER SWEEP

KEY SELECTIONS

4H ARIZONA over Washington St - We used the Wildcats over the Cougars as our first two College GOY’s way back in ‘82 and ‘83 (21 pt avg cover) while also using UA as our only 5H ever published in the Power Sweep. LY WSU was actually tied 14-14 (+41) eventually losing 59-28 at home. UA RB Grigsby set a career-high rushing mark for the 2nd consec yr vs the Cougs with 189 yds but he is ? here with a shoulder inj that has plagued him most of the ssn. Arizona returns from a bye still believing they have a shot at the Rose Bowl with an offense that is avg 465 ypg in conf play led by the emergence of QB Foles who is avg 325 ypg (73%) in his 4 sts. After LW’s thumping in San Antonio vs ND (Irish HG with crowd edge), the Cougs are avg a 25 ppg deficit in their losses TY. WSU is on a 9-3 ATS run but have actually been outscored by a 55-10 margin in conf play the L/2Y with most of those ATS covers coming as 20+ pt dogs. UA is on a 5-1 ATS run in this series and have covered 3 straight as a 20+ pt fav (53-10 avg margin) giving them the convincing win here this week. FORECAST: ARIZONA 49 Washington St 6

3H KANSAS ST over Kansas - KSU is 11-4 SU/ATS in the Sunflower Showdown. The Wildcats are 25-4 in Nov HG’s while the Jayhawks are 5-21 in Nov RG’s. KU has won and covered the L/3Y (Prince was KSU HC) but Snyder is 13-4 SU/ATS knowing the importance of smacking his rival (coached under Hayden Fry). KSU did lose to OU LW but at 3-2 in the B12 North still controls its own destiny. QB Gregory is avg 109 ttl ypg (62%) with a 3-2 ratio. RB Thomas (PS#25JC) has 902 yds (5.0) and is 36% of the offense. KU dropped its 3rd straight conf gm and 5th straight ATS vs TT LW after starting out 5-0. In that 5 gm span they are allowing 35 ppg (385 ypg). QB Reesing is avg 298 ypg (64%) with a 16-7 ratio. The teams are moving in opposite directions after misleading starts to the season as the Wildcats seem to have hit stride while KU is being exposed. KSU has been involved in 2 past GOY’s (1996 and ‘99), will we use them for a 3rd time?
FORECAST: KANSAS ST 37 Kansas 23

3H Wisconsin over INDIANA - Wisky has delivered a lot of 5H Winners incl our favorite Sept 5H of all time, a 62-13 win over the Hoosiers in ‘94. The Badgers are 10-2 vs Indy winning by 26 ppg with Bielema 3-0 SU/ATS winning by a 47-13 avg. LY Wisky (-9’) set a Memorial Stadium record with 441 yds rush in a 55-20 win as a 4H LPS, a half step below our GOY. Fresh off a bye, Wisky’s huge OL flattened the smallish Boilers D 37-0 with a 266-60 yd rush edge for the Badgers’ first shut out of a B10 team S/’99. QB Tolzien (190, 63%, 9-8 ratio) rebounded from B2B tough outings thanks to the B10’s leading rusher Clay (839, 4.7). Indy has suffered B2B meltdowns blowing a 28-3 2Q lead vs NW and a 21-7 HT lead at Iowa. The Hoosiers took advantage of 6 Hawks TO’s and had the ball at the Iowa 2 when the game began to turn on an 86 yd IR TD which caromed off several players. IU then drove deep into Iowa terr but a TD was questionably overturned via replay and they missed a FG. Iowa threw 2 long TD passes to take the lead. QB Chappell (228, 62%, 10-10 ratio) has sunk to #10 B10’s pass eff. RB Willis (459, 4.7) is B10’s #5 rusher. Wisky has dominated the LOS in this series which is always the recipe for a 5H winner. FORECAST: Wisconsin 38 INDIANA 13

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H W Michigan (+) over MICHIGAN ST - Mich St is 5-0 SU S/‘80 (1-1 ATS). Last met in ‘03 as MSU was up 26-14 before WM (+13’) scored w/:30 left. WM did upset Illinois and Iowa in late ssn gms each of the L/2Y knocking both out of bowls. WM has played five B10 teams under HC Cubit and has only been outgained by a TOTAL of 142 yds and is +6 FD’s. Both teams are in conf sandwiches and come in off losses. Mich St lost to CM TY and both need to win 2 of the L/3 to be bowl eligible. Against CM, WM lost 34-23 (+7) but had a 497-426 yd edge, while MSU lost 29-27 but was outgained 418-316. WM QB Hiller is avg 279 ypg (63%) with a 17-8 ratio, while RB West leads with 824 (5.1). MSU QB Cousins is avg 189 ypg (61%) with a 10-4 ratio, while RB Caper has 366 (4.2) but left LW’s game with a concussion. MSU has come up short in night games the L/2 weeks with Dantonio telling reporters they were out-coached as a previously slumping Minny QB Weber threw for 5 TD’s despite being without top WR Decker. The Broncos have a talented offense and this B10 instate opponent can be the type of motivation they need to not only cover this spread, but perhaps pull the potential upset. FORECAST: W Michigan (+) 24 MICHIGAN ST 31

2H COLORADO over Texas A&M - HT has won 4 in a row (3-1 ATS) by an avg of 10 ppg. CU is 6-2 ATS vs A&M and 24-12 ATS in Nov. A&M is just 3-16 SU and 4-15 ATS in Nov RG’s. CU came out flat LW (down 33-0 late 2Q) and had just 176 yds (4th time below 251 yds). QB Hansen is avg 118 ypg (56%) with a 1-2 ratio. A&M beat ISU at Kyle Field LW but is playing in its 3rd RG in 4 wks. QB Johnson is avg 296 ypg (61%) with a 20-3 ratio. CU is ranked #78 in our pass eff def all’g 228 ypg (61%) with a 13-6 ratio. A&M does have the better off (#8-102) but if you take away the first 3 gms vs weak non-conf foes they are avg 134 fewer ypg in their L/5. CU has the def edge (#57-82) holding 5 of its L/6 foes below their ssn avg. CU can’t afford another loss for not only their bowl hopes but for HC Hawkins job which at 2-6 may be out the door no matter what happens. We have used the Buffaloes as the GOY 3 times in the past, will we go with them a 4th time? FORECAST: COLORADO 34 Texas A&M 24

2H SMU over Rice - Rice is 16-4 SU in the series. LY Rice QB Clement tied a CUSA record with 6 TD passes and Rice forced 5 TO’s as the Owls outscored SMU 56-14 after trailing 13-0 in the 1Q to spoil Jones’ debut at SMU. Rice is off a much needed bye as the Owls remain winless on the season (0-8). They are just 1-6-1 ATS and have lost every game by at least 17 pts, incl the L/2 by a combined score of 98-20! They have our #113 off, #119 D, but have faced our #36 sked. SMU is off a 27-13 win at Tulsa (+14’) and has legit bowl aspirations (last bowl ‘84). QB Mitchell missed LW (CS), but true frosh Padron (PS#134) filled in and threw for 354 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio in his 1st start. RB McNeal leads with 639 rush (4.6). The Mustangs’ D is #9 in the NCAA, forcing 22 TO’s. SMU HC Jones was 8-3 ATS as a 20+ pt fav while at Hawaii, so he knows how to put the hammer down. Rice is clearly rebuilding, so expect the Ponies to roll here. We won with the Mustangs as a home dog as our 5H Oct GOM, could we use them here as our College GOY? FORECAST: SMU 47 Rice 10

OTHER GAMES

Thursday November 5th - E Michigan at N ILLINOIS - While NI has won 7 of 8 by an avg of 23 ppg they lost the last time here. In that game the Huskies led 13-0 and then had a 50 yd FG blocked on the game’s final play to lose 21-19. LY NI got revenge 37-0 (-5’) on the road as EM’s top 2 QB’s were inj. The visitor has covered 8 in a row ATS! Both are off short weeks and while EM is 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS (only cover by half pt) since losing QB Schmitt, NI is 0-9 as a DD favorite including an outright loss to Idaho 34-31 as a 15’ pt HF earlier this year. Which team will step up for the win?

Miami, Oh at TEMPLE - In their 3 meetings (‘05, ‘07 and LY), MU has combined to outFD Tem 66-33 and outgain them 1179-787 but is 1-2 SU. MU was 0-5 LY in weekday games. Earlier TY Tem beat a Toledo team down to their #3 QB, 40-24 as a 2 pt AD, with a 343-313 yd edge. LW MU faced a Tol team with all 3 QB’s and won 31-24 as a 5’ pt HD as the Rockets had the potentially game-tying TD overturned on replay. Tem outrushed Navy 274-227 LW and won 27-24 (+7), their 6th in a row to become bowl eligible for the 1st time S/’90. MU’s win LW snapped the longest losing streak in school history at 13. Can Tem continue the dream of a MAC Championship or has Miami found the ability to play the role of spoiler?

Virginia Tech at E CAROLINA - EC has covered two in a row in this series and LY trailed 22-13 but got a TD with 3:36 left and then blk’d a punt and ret’d it 30 yards for a TD with 1:52 left for a stunning upset in Charlotte. Tech is off a devastating home loss to UNC while EC is off a conf road win at Memphis. VT is 9-4 as an AF since ‘05, but 0-2 TY. EC is 14-8 ATS at home under Holtz. Can VTech exact revenge and get back on track or does EC pull another upset over a BCS foe?

Friday, November 6th

Boise St at LOUISIANA TECH - LT won the first 4 gms (‘73-’01) but BSU has won the L/7 (4-3 ATS) by 26 ppg. However, the Broncos have only outscored the Bulldogs by 5 ppg in Ruston. These two know how to light up a scoreboard when they meet as they avg 67 ppg for the series and 82 ppg in gms played in Ruston! Boise is on its 3rd AG in 4 wks and is making the nearly 2,000 mile trip on a short week. LT is a much different team at home and is 6-0 as a HD (5-0 under Dooley) and the HT here is 8-2 ATS (6-4 SU). Boise is 3-2 SU (won L/3) in Ruston but is just 1-4 ATS here (only cover in ‘05). However, BSU is right at home in weekday reg ssn gms going 21-12 SU and 16-5 ATS S/’01 and is 10-5 ATS as a DD conf fav.

Saturday November 7th

CINCINNATI 27 Connecticut 23 - Cincy is 4-1 vs the Huskies with an avg win by 14 ppg. LY, QB Pike returned from inj (CS on Pike TW) but was ineffective and sat out the 2H giving Cincy their only BE loss, 40-16 (-2’). The key was a 6-0 TO edge as Cincy led 13-10 at HT. Cincy is 13-2 (9-4 ATS) at home under Kelly and the HT is 4-0 ATS in this series. #4 Cincy (8-0) is off a workmanlike 28-7 win and cover over Syr. Backup QB Collaros is 32-0 as a starter (incl HS) and has stepped in well to Kelly’s plug and play system avg’g 207 ypg (79%) with a 7-1 ratio and 206 rush yds (6.9). WR Gilyard leads the BE in all-purp yds (169.5). The defense is all’g 13 ppg and 313 ypg. Conn is off a heartbreaking 28-24 loss to Rutgers, their 1st home game since the death of CB Howard. After taking the lead with :38 left (87/15pl), Conn gave up a short pass that went 81 yds for a TD. QB Endres was inj’d in the 1Q (OFY) but Frazer replaced him and threw for 333 yds (46%) with a 3-1 ratio. The defense has all’d 414 ypg in BE play and now faces the BE’s top offense (454 ypg, 39.1 ppg). The Huskies were 3-7 as a BE AD prior to the year (2-0 TY). Conn has proven it can stay with any team but emotion is a question.

PITTSBURGH 41 Syracuse 6 - LY the Orange blew a 24-13 lead in their 34-24 (+14’) loss to Pitt. Syr had won 11 in a row SU in the series but Pitt is now on a 6-1 run. Pitt dominated USF prior to their bye 41-14 (-6’) and is off to their best start since the Marino era. The Pitt OL dominated a solid USF DL that held WV to 118 rush yds (3.4). Pitt RB Lewis is avg 129 ypg (5.6) with 11 TD’s. QB Stull is avg 207 ypg (67%) with a 16-4 ratio. This may be the most complete Pitt offense yet under Wannstedt. Pitt has a NCAA leading 33 sks and now faces an inexp Syr OL. Syr is avg 110 rush ypg (3.4) all’g 15 sks. Syr is off a 28-7 loss to #4 Cincy. Syr is recently alternating QB’s avg 203 pass ypg (67%) with a 12-11 ratio. Their top weapon is WR Williams with 49 rec (15.2). Pitt has all the edges here (off #24-93 and def #24-79) and has outgained Syr by 110 ypg in their L/6 wins. This is ONLY Syr’s 2nd RG (1st Penn St garbage TD for cover) and they may be eyeing a winnable UL game on deck. This year we have already won 2 LPS incl a 5H going against Syr. Will we use our 5H GOY against the Orange?

Illinois 27 MINNESOTA 26 - IL is now 2-6 ATS in the series incl getting upset as a 12.5 pt HF LY. QB Juice had a Memorial Stadium record 503 ttl yds but was sk’d 5x and IL had a 550-312 yd edge in the loss. The fav is 6-1 ATS with the spread being DD in 6 of them. UM HC Brewster is an Ill alum who campaigned for the HC job before Zook was hired. This is IL’s 3rd AG in 4W. Minny is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS the L/2Y in gm’s in which WR Decker DNP or was inj’d. Minny overcame Decker’s absence and 17 pen’s for 157 yds in a wild 42-34 win over Mich St in which Minny had a 505-360 yd edge. Struggling QB Weber (206, 55%, 11-12 ratio) tied his career high with 5 TD passes incl a miracle 59 yd’r to RB Bennett, which bounced off another player, that increased the lead to 8 with 6:04 left. IL rose from the dead to upset Michigan 38-13 for their 1st win over an FBS foe in 364 days. With a 13-7 3Q lead, UM had the ball at the Illini 1 before IL’s D stiffened and they stopped the Wolves on 4 straight runs. QB Williams (136 ypg, 56%, 5-5 ratio, 374 rush yd) played the whole way after platooning vs Purdue. RB LeShoure (435, 6.7) has had B2B 100 yd games. Minny has the D (#78-87) and ST (#26-87) edges but IL has the off (#50-69) edge. IL might be on the verge of starting a new streak.

W VIRGINIA 34 Louisville 20 - Last year the Mountaineers had a season high 376 rush yds vs UL (57 yds more than #2). WV is 8-2 vs Louisville and the series has avg’d 73 ppg the L/5 gms. UL has outgained WV the L/3 and has had conf ssn highs the L/2. WV is off a tough loss to USF last Friday, 30-19. WV all’d 421 yds and was unable to corral USF’s elusive QB. QB Brown is avg 196 ypg (66%) with a 10-7 ratio and RB Devine is avg 119 ypg (6.2) but was held to 42 yds (2.8) LW. UL is off a much needed win over Ark St, 21-13. UL led 21-3 but also missed 2 FG’s (IN20) and was SOD at the 2 to end the 1H. Injuries (check status) forced diminutive walk-on QB Stein (5’8”) into his 1st start and he threw for 232 yds. RB’s Ashley (PS#62) and Powell rushed for 170 (5.7) and the UL defense held ASU to 45 rush yd (1.8). Four of the L/6 gms in this series have been decided by 7 pts or less with LY’s 14 pt loss being the largest MOV S/‘86. The Mountaineers have the off edge (#37-66) and def edge (#38-89) but WV is 0-5 ATS as HF under Stewart and also has Cincy on deck.

NC STATE 37 Maryland 20 - The favorite is 10-4 ATS but the visitor is 8-5-1 ATS. LY Maryland needed a 20 yd FG with :06 left to defeat NCSt 27-24. In their last visit to Raleigh, MD won a battle for bowl game eligibility with their 37-0 shutout upset over NCSt. Maryland is 7-2 SU overall but 1-3 in Raleigh. NCSt is 2-10 as a conf HF incl an outright loss to Duke TY (49-28, -15’). MD is just 2-5-1 as a conf AD. QB Turner is avg 229 pass ypg (59%) with a 10-9 ratio. WR T Smith is #3 in the NCAA avg 192 all-purp ypg. MD ranks #108 in the NCAA in rush offense and has only avg’d 70 ypg (2.2 ypc) the L/5 games. NCSt does have the offensive edge (#39-94) but they matchup fairly up evenly on defense (#72-77 MD). QB Russell Wilson is avg 251 pass ypg (60%) with a 21-6 ratio and has rushed for 283 yds (4.1). MD is just 2-6 (1-3 conf) and has a tough remaining schedule, possibly not winning another game TY. Friedgen wants to play more of the young players to get more depth so they can build for the future. NCSt is 3-5 and winless in conf play and they have been hit hard by inj’s including 10 who are out for the year while giving up 49, 52 and 45 pt in the L/3. The D though should get some confidence back vs MD’s inept offense.

GEORGIA TECH 37 Wake Forest 30 - The home team is 8-2 ATS. These 2 haven’t met since the 2006 ACC Title game when the Demon Deacons won 9-6 on 3 FG’s. Wake is 1-5 as a conf AD and GT is 5-1 as a HF under Johnson. WF has only been a conf DD dog once in the L/4Y and covered vs #15 Clemson (17-27, +16’ in ‘06) and the Deacons defeated Johnson’s Navy squad 44-24 in ‘07 (-3), however, they did give up 338 yds on the ground vs Navy a few wks ago. LW Wake all’d 14 4Q pts and fell to Miami 28-27 (WF 555-356 yd edge) in the rain. QB Skinner suffered a concussion with 6:22 left (check status) and on the season is avg 255 pass ypg (66%) with an 18-10 ratio. GT has a large offensive edge (#4-61) and also has the defensive edge (#49-62). QB Nesbitt is avg 130 ypg (48%) with a 6-3 ratio and has rushed for 763 yds (4.1). RB Dwyer has 904 rush yds (6.2) and GT is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense. GT is coming off a 56-31 win over Vandy and now turn their attention to winning the Coastal Div and securing a berth in the ACC Champ game but Wake won’t make it easy.

N CAROLINA 23 Duke 20 - Duke is 1-18 vs NC S/‘90 but the L/4 have been decided by an avg of 4.5 ppg. The dog is 19-8 ATS in the Victory Bell clash. Duke is now on a 3-1 ATS run. LY Duke trailed by 8 and got to the NC16 with :27 left but threw a 42 yd int and NC covered (-7’). Last time here Duke missed a FG on the final play of reg and another in OT and lost 20-14 (+15). NC is in a large VT/Miami sandwich (defeated #13 VT 20-17) and this game had been played at the end of the year most other seasons. Duke is 28-13 ATS as an AD (2-1 TY). NC QB Yates is avg 145 ypg (60%) with a 9-9 ratio. Duke has the offensive edge (#57-97) but NC has a large defensive edge (#16-84) and the ST edge (#51-104). NC is #10 in the NCAA in pass D, all’g only 163 ypg. Duke QB Lewis is avg 282 pass ypg (64%) with a 14-3 ratio. With their win over UVA LW, Duke has won 3 consecutive ACC games for the 1st time since 1994 and with just 1 conf loss, remain in the race for the Coastal Div Title. Duke is also looking toward earning a bowl berth for the 1st time S/’94 while NC needs 2 wins to become bowl elig (played 2 FCS foes).

ARKANSAS 37 S Carolina 20 - Ark is 6-2 ATS in this series and the fav is 12-3 ATS. Ark is 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS vs SEC East tms, but almost upset #1 FL in a controversial 23-20 loss earlier TY. Ark was w/o RB Smith (inj) LY and SC won at home 34-21 (-12’) holding Ark to 54 yds rush (1.7). This is SC’s 3rd road trip in 4 wks and 5th str SEC gm. SC is off a 31-13 loss to Tenn in which they outgained the Vols and outFD’d them, but 3 fmbl’s were turned into Tenn TD’s. Ark is off a 63-27 win over EM in which EM didn’t get its first FD until the 3Q and Ark will be fully focused here. Ark RB Smith DNP (360, 6.4). This is a battle of 2 of the top QB’s in the SEC in pass ypg with Mallett avg 269 ypg (54%) with an 18-3 ratio and Garcia avg 233 ypg (57%) with a 12-5 ratio. SC has the better D overall (#15-47) and much better pass D (#15-106) but Ark has a huge edge on off (#9-60) and SC hasn’t faced any QB close to Mallett’s caliber. We used Ark as our Bowl GOY in the ‘03 Independence Bowl and they delivered a 27-14 win (-2’), are we high on the Hogs TW?

Oklahoma St 34 IOWA ST 17 - The HT has 4 straight wins (SU/ATS) by an avg of 28 ppg. ISU is actually 3-2 SU this decade. OSU is off a huge loss to UT which may have ended any B12 Title hopes. QB Robinson is avg 211 ypg (64%) with a 13-7 ratio. ISU had a tough time vs A&M LW but is just a win away from bowl eligibility covering 5 of the L/7 wks. RFr QB Tiller (PS#54) started his 2nd straight gm LW (129 ypg, 59%, 1-2 ratio and 108 rush yds, 3.5) in place of Arnaud (156 ypg, 57%, 9-5, and 434 yds, 4.8) who may return here. RB Robinson (813 yds, 5.4) returned LW and seems 100%. Under Gundy, OSU is 16-8-1 ATS off a loss but 5-13-1 ATS in Nov AG’s. ISU is 8-16 SU in Nov but 5-3 ATS. The last time OSU was off such a big gm they lost outright (45-35, -15’ vs UH) but they do have the better off (#22-55) and def (#20-81). It will be tough to get the Cowboys refocused (UT/TT sandwich) but Gundy knows Rhoads has his team believing and will not look past anybody.

MISSOURI 27 Baylor 13 - BU is just 4-41 SU in Nov (0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in Nov RG’s). The Bears are 2-10 SU (last win in ‘91) and 2-6-1 ATS vs the Tigers. BU lost again LW in B12 action dropping its 4th straight and now has been outscored on avg 28-9 and outgained 441-229. RFr QB Florence (PS#76) is avg 157 ypg (57%) with a 2-4 ratio as HC Briles seems to be looking at the future with Sr Szymanski (82 yds, 61%, 1-4) dealing with a shoulder inj. Mizzou got its 1st conf win LW beating CU (400-176 yd edge). QB Gabbert is avg 237 ypg (57%) with a 15-7 ratio and is still not 100% with an ankle inj but it showed little effect LW. Both offenses have been stagnant recently but Mizzou gained some confidence LW, has the better def (#25-74) and should take advantage of a weaker BU squad whose high expectations are all but gone for 2009.

FLORIDA 42 Vanderbilt 0 - Tebow accounted for 5 TD’s (3 pass, 2 rush) in LY’s 42-14 win (-23’). UF led 42-0 before allowing 2 late VU TD’s. The visitor is 9-5 ATS (last Vandy SU win in ‘88, 0-18 SU). Vandy is 5-2 ATS in the Swamp incl a 49-42 loss in 2OT in ‘05 (+19’). VU lost their 5th str gm and was eliminated from the bowls with their 56-31 loss to GT LW. VU led 31-28 late 3Q, but GT scored 28 unanswered pts in the final 15:54. UF clinched their 2nd str SEC East Title with their dominating 41-17 win over UGA LW and Tenn’s win over SC. UF’s #2 D held UGA to 286 ttl yds and grabbed 4 int’s. UF has our #1 off led by Tebow who is avg 164 pass ypg (65%) and he is the #1 rusher with 551 (4.0). VU QB Smith (125 ypg, 47%, 4-7) left in 1Q LW hamstring inj (check status). UF helped us win our ‘07 Bowl POY on the Over, and we won our GOY in ‘88 by going against Vandy (on Army). UF is in a UGA/SC sandwich, but is the best tm in the SEC facing the weakest and that could be a formula for a 5H.

Byu 34 WYOMING 20 - Deer hunting ssn in WY started on Nov 1 so expect a smaller than usual crowd with this being the first Sat. WY is having a solid ssn going 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS under new coach Christensen. The Pokes are led by true frosh QB Carta-Samuels who is avg 147 ypg (58%) with a 6-3 ratio. However, the off has avg only 188 total ypg L/2 and TW they run into a BYU tm that is coming off a bye and wants to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the TCU gm. Mendenhall’s tms usually finish strong with the exception of LY’s BCS bubble burst, as the Cougs have lost only 2 gms in the month of Nov during his tenure. BYU QB Hall is avg 279 ypg (69%) with a 17-11 ratio and the Cougar cchs and players say they will not let the TCU gm effect the rest of the ssn like LY. In this series, the Cougs have won the L/5 SU/ATS by an avg of 45-6 with an avg cover of 17 pts. Expect more of the same there as BYU avg’s 42 ppg their L/8 on the road as a favorite.

NOTRE DAME 37 Navy 17 - Navy is 27-12 ATS as an AD and is 13-6 ATS vs the Irish. Navy has covered the L/9 in South Bend and the road tm has covered 6 str. ND had a streak of 43 SU wins in a row snapped in a 3OT loss the last time here. LY ND led 27-7 with 1:33 left and fmbl’d deep in Navy terr with the backups in. Navy got 2 TD’s and 2 onside kicks and had the ball down 27-21 (+4) but was SOD at the ND31 with :22 left. ND had a 341-137 yd edge prior to Navy’s L/2 drives. ND WR Floyd was inj’d in the 1Q vs Navy LY and DNP the rest of the reg ssn. Ironically, Floyd is expected to ret TW from a brkn collarbone (out L/5 gms). ND is off a comfortable 40-14 win over Wash St in San Antonio and after 6 str down-to-the-wire gms, the starters were able to rest in the 2H LW. ND QB Clausen is avg 290 ypg (67%) with an 18-2 ratio. Navy is off a 27-24 loss to Temple ending their streak of 5 str wins. QB Dobbs (77 pass ypg, 50%, 3-2 ratio, 595 rush, 3.5) has missed the L/2 (knee inj) but should be avail. ND was in control LY, but almost let it slip away but TY’s ND tm is better and playing at home.

Utep 41 TULANE 17 - LY Tulane RB Anderson rushed for a career-high 255 yds, but the Wave allowed a 68 yd TD pass with 4:22 left and UTEP (-4) escaped at home 24-21. This is Tulane’s FHG and their only HG the final 6 wks. The Green Wave is off a 42-0 loss at LSU in which they were outgained 455-216. They have lost 4 in row SU/ATS by an avg score of 40-8. RFr QB Griffin (PS#45) will be making his 3rd career start and is avg 161 ypg (68%) with an 0-2 ratio in his 2 starts. RB Anderson leads with 673 rush (4.6), but has yet to get untracked. WR Williams has 52 rec (14.2). The Miners are off a troublesome 38-33 home loss (-7) to UAB as they went from CUSA Title hopes to possibly missing a bowl in 1 wk. UTEP outgained the Blazers 585-375, but QB Vittatoe threw 2 int, 1 of which was ret’d 99 yds for a TD for a 14 pt swing. RB Buckram did rush for 164 yds (5.8) and now has 947 (6.3) on the season. The Superdome hasn’t been very friendly to Tulane as they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs FBS teams at home this year, losing by 31 ppg. The Miners should cruise in this one, as a young Tulane tm looks ahead to a winnable gm vs Rice next wk.

ALABAMA 27 Lsu 10 - The fav is 4-1-2 ATS. LY LSU fans were sky high for Saban’s return to Death Valley and LSU had a 382-353 yd edge. UA PK Tiffin missed a 42 yd FG and had a 29 yd FG blk’d at the end of reg but UA won in OT as LSU QB Lee had 4 int. The visitor is 27-11-1 SU in the series and LSU is 5-1 SU overall and 4-0 SU in Bama (2-0-2 ATS). This is a battle of top 10 D’s but UA has a large edge on off (#18-48). UA QB McElroy is avg 181 ypg (60%) with a 9-3 ratio and LSU QB Jefferson is avg 178 ypg (64%) with an 11-4 ratio. Both QB’s have struggled vs tough D’s this year, but UA has the superior rushing gm led by Ingram (1004, 6.6) and UA avg 218 rush ypg. LSU is off a strong 42-0 showing vs Tulane with 25-14 FD edge and 455-216 yd edges. Bama is fresh off a late ssn bye, and this is UA’s most important gm in a month (until Aub 11/27), so the Tide should prevail for the 2nd str Saban Bowl and clinch the SEC West.

TEXAS 48 Ucf 6 - Rare late non-conf matchup. UT trailed 24-23 early 4Q in the schools only meeting in ‘07 which was the first ever game in UCF’s Bright House Stadium. #2 UT is off a huge OSU win which was their last big hurdle of the ssn. QB McCoy is avg 247 ypg (72%) with a 14-8 ratio. UCF is playing on a short wk as they are off a Sun night gm. WF transfer Hodges is avg 174 ypg (59%) with an 8-7 ratio. RB Harvey (632 yds, 4.2) is 29% of the Knights offense but Texas is #1 in the nation at stopping the run (53 ypg, 1.7). UCF is ranked #100 in our pass eff def all’g 243 ypg (65%) with a 9-5 ratio and UT comes in #2 (188 ypg, 53%, 9-16). UT has big off (#2-103) and def (#1-46) edges playing the much tougher slate (#22-104). UT is 1-2 ATS vs non-conf foes TY but the avg win is by 42 ppg and UCF is 3-9 ATS as a 21+ dog but has covered 5 straight AG’s. With the Horns sights set on a National Title, the only question here is if they will cover the spread.

AKRON 21 Kent St 20 - These instate rivals are just 14 miles apart and have played every yr S/ ‘92 and this will be the first meeting in Akron’s new stadium. LY KSU had a dominating 21-10 HT lead and had a 413-301 edge but Akron got a 4th and 11 TD pass with 1:28 left and KS lost in 2OT. The dog is 5-1 ATS including 4 outright upsets. TY KS defeated Ohio 20-11 with a 372-164 yd edge, while Akron lost to Ohio 19-7 despite a 346-292 yd edge. Kent St has covered 6 straight. Both are led by true frosh QB’s. UA’s QB Nicely is avg 153 ypg (49%) with a 1-2 ratio. KS QB Keith is avg 192 ypg (59%) with an 11-8 ratio. However, KS top RB Terry has 572 yds (4.9) while UA’s top RB Tuzze has just 167 yds (4.3) and UA took the RS off RB Alexander who had 48 (2.5) vs NI. While the off are close, KS has big def (#64-97) and ST (#43-97) edges. Beware of the dog as a rivalry win is all Akron has to play for this ssn.

AIR FORCE 23 Army 13 - The visitor is on a 7-2 run. LY AF won despite Army having a 17-10 FD edge as AF’s scoring drives were 24, 34, 32 and 3 yds. AF is 18-2 SU in the series holding Army to 7 pts or less 12 times. Army is fresh off a bye and AF is in an MWC sandwich and HC Calhoun has put his emphasis on the MWC gms and not the military rivalries. Last time here AF won 30-10 (-16’) but Army did pull an upset as a DD dog here in ‘05. Army’s off has struggled passing for less then 60 ypg with a comb 4-4 ratio and the top rusher is true frosh QB Steelman with 450 yds (3.4). AF has 4 rushers with 368+ yds led by RB Tew with 552 (3.6). AF had 25-16 FD and 382-267 yd edges (AF best yd edge vs an FBS tm TY) over CSU LW as they easily covered 26-14 as a 3 pt away fav. AF has the off (#88-119), def (#35-75) and ST (#24-101) edges. If Army is to make their 1st bowl S/’96 they must beat one of their military rivals but we don’t see it happening here.

Oklahoma 16 NEBRASKA 13 - Historic rivalry played every yr from 1928-’97. OU is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS vs NU this decade. LY OU dropped 62 on the Husker defense which was the most allowed in their 84 gm history. OU held off a feisty KSU squad LW giving up a ssn high 30 pts and 364 yds. QB Jones is avg 207 ypg (62%) with a 17-6 ratio. NU took advantage of a slumping BU squad LW snapping a 2 gm B12 losing streak. True Fr Green (PS#21) made his 1st career start LW (171 ttl yds) in favor of struggling Lee (183 ypg, 60%, 10-6). The HT is 9-5 ATS but the Huskers are just 2-12 SU and 5-8-1 ATS vs ranked foes (2-0 ATS TY). OU is on a 5 gm true ATS road B12 run while NU is just 2-8 ATS in conf HG’s. Both teams field great defensive units (OU#3 allowing 13 ppg and 277 ypg, NU#5 allowing 11 ppg and 268 ypg) but the Sooners have been more consistent on off (#12-46) despite the injuries as Stoops clearly has his team focused.

PENN ST 20 Ohio St 10 - The favorite is 6-3 ATS and OSU is 1-4 ATS at Happy Valley winning and covering in its last trip (‘07, -3’ 37-17). LY OSU (+2) was held to 14 FD’s in front of a record home crowd (105,711) in a 13-6 loss in which PA native Pryor, on 3&1 at the 50 with 10:38 left and a 6-3 lead, fmbl’d on a QB sneak. Lions bkup QB Devlin led the gm winning TD drive after Clark suffered a concussion. Penn St was tied 13-13 with NW into the 4Q LW but scored on 3 straight offensive touches in a 34-13 win in which the B10’s leading passer (Cats QB Kafka) was KO’d in the 2Q. B10 pass eff leader (Ohio native) Clark (240, 63%, 18-7 ratio) pilots the conf’s top offense but wasn’t recruited by OSU. RB Royster (859, 5.9) has had 4 straight 100 yd gms vs B10 foes. PSU leads the B10 in scoring (9.3-#1 NCAA), rush (84, 2.6), total D (255 ypg) and sacks (32). OSU got its 3rd shutout of the year beating NM St 45-0 while holding the Aggies to 2 FD’s and 62 total yds. The Bucks had some razzle dazzle recovering an onside kick and having a WR reverse pass for a 39 yd TD. QB Pryor (171, 55%, 13-9 ratio, 554 rush yd) made some controversial comments about PSU when he chose OSU and will be playing in his home state for the first time. The OL played without 2 starters LW and has started 5 diff lineups TY. OSU’s huge ST’s edge (#14-112) may be negated here as K Pettrey suffered a serious knee inj. Similar programs and styles but the big difference here is on offense (PSU edge #23-38) with QB Clark a polished vet while Pryor is still a work in progress.

Tcu 30 SAN DIEGO ST 16 - Despite being in a flat spot LW, TCU continued their drive to the BCS with a 41-0 win over UNLV. The Frogs, as usual, have a dominating def giving up only 240 ypg but TY’s team also has an explosive off which is avg 447 ypg. SDSt, meanwhile, has gone 3-1-1 ATS and at 4-4 looks for its first bowl gm S/’98. QB Lindley started off the ssn slowly but after the bye wk is avg 336 ypg (63%) with a 12-1 ratio! New DC Long leads a much-improved def that is all’g 111 ypg less TY. LY his NM def held TCU to 291 yds, its lowest total of the ssn. TCU has won the last 3 by an avg of 46-13 with an AMAZING 97-25 FD edge and LY had a 498-95 yd edge at home as Lindley was KO’d early (shoulder) and bkup Westling hit 6-17 for just 61 yds. TCU is 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium (2 bowl gms, 2 vs SDSt) the L/4Y. The HT is 4-0 ATS in the series and the Aztecs under Hoke are 3-0 as a conf dog with an avg cover of 10 ppg and should keep it within the inflated line.

Fresno St 41 IDAHO 30 - The Bulldogs have won the L/6 SU by an avg score 38-17. FSU is 3-1 SU/ATS as WAC foes. FSU has a pair of close covers in the Kibbie Dome (40-10, -29’ in ‘05 and 37-24, -10 in ‘07) winning by a 21 ppg but only covering by 1.5 ppg. Both teams are coming off close comeback wins LW as UI scored a TD with :52 to beat LT by 1 while FSU score a TD with 4:53 left to top USt by 4. The Vandals are on a 10-3 ATS run and are 7-2 TY but have failed to cover in the L/2. The Bulldogs are #5 in the NCAA in rush off (260 ypg) and #7 in ttl off (455 ypg) led by RB Mathews who is #1 in the NCAA (165 ypg) with 1,316 yds and has recorded 8 straight 100 yd gms. Something has to give here as UI has covered in 6 in its L/7 HG’s while FSU has covered in its L/4 AG’s. UI has been the WAC’s surprise team TY already standing 4-1 in the conf after being picked 8th (media) and 9th (coaches). However, the Vandals’ conf schedule is backloaded with stronger teams and FSU is UI’s toughest HG TY.

UTAH 37 New Mexico 6 - LY Utah, who came in avg 39 ppg, was caught looking ahead (to TCU) and only pulled out a 3 pt win as NM held UT to a season low 13 pts. TY the Utes again have TCU on deck but this is a much different NM team that is 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS under 1st yr HC Locksley. Despite its 7-1 SU record, the Utes have either been tied or have trailed in the 2H of five of their 8 gms. The Utes seem to have gotten a spark LW with true Fr QB Wynn (PS#52) coming in for Cain and leading the Utes to 19 2H pts in their 22-10 win over Wyoming. The dog is 5-2 ATS with 4 outright upsets but the HT has covered 3 straight (Utah 28-10 -15 in ‘07). While Utah’s off has not topped 35 pts TY, the NM def is giving up 36 ppg. Utah is 19-9-1 as a double digit conf fav and despite the big gm on deck will blast the struggling Lobos.

CALIFORNIA 37 Oregon St 24 - Surprisingly the HT is just 2-6 ATS and OSU is 15-7 ATS in the series incl 8-2 SU. In their last visit here, Cal had a chance to move up to #1 in the nation w/a victory but then bkup QB Riley, making his first career start, committed a critical error on the final play allowing OSU to escape with the win (+14). LY Cal trailed by 6 and had the ball but suffered a 25 yd IR TD w/:31 left for a misleading 13 pt road loss (+3’). OSU held off scrappy UCLA (led 19-3 in the 4Q) LW in Corvallis and come to Berkeley riding a 6-2 ATS record as a conf AD. After LW’s last second win in Tempe vs ASU, Cal has won 3 consec gms after their collapses vs UO and USC in early Oct leaning on their splendid run game that has posted 218 ypg (6.0) in that span. Seven of Cal’s 8 gms have been decided by 2 or more TD’s and while this may be closer, Cal is 5-1 ATS as a conf HF with their only loss coming to Wash St as a 35’ pt fav (won game by 32 pts).
UCLA 27 Washington 20 - UCLA comes in 9-2-1 ATS vs UW (7-1 SU) and 8-4 ATS hosting Wash schools. The Bruins continue to struggle after a 3-0 SU/ATS start to begin the ssn dropping their L/5 SU (1-4 ATS, all in P10) but did show some 4Q life LW in Corvallis coming back to tie OSU before losing late. LY was Willingham’s FHG and the return of Rick Neuheisel to Seattle but UCLA prevailed 27-7 (-7) in a very hostile environment. UW is fresh off a bye and extremely disappointed with their loss a few wks back to Oregon in which they outplayed UO for the entire 1H (195-141 yd HT edge). The Huskies have dropped 10 of the L/12 matchups incl 6 straight in the Rose Bowl. While HC Sarkisian has UW heading in the right direction, Neuheisel will earn his 1st conf win of the ssn against a program that he will enjoy getting the best of yet again as their D (#23-70) and spec teams (#1-100) advantages should make the difference

Oregon 31 STANFORD 30 - Oregon is 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) vs Stanford S/’98 and comes into the Farm with arguably their biggest win in program history destroying USC in Eugene 47-20 with 31-17 FD and 613-327 yd edges (UO 391 rush, 8.0). In LY’s meeting, Oregon RB Blount (may be reinstated) punched in a 3 yd TD run w/:06 remaining giving UO the 7 pt victory LY in Eugene. The Cardinal have proven to be a bowl caliber program this ssn and are off, arguably, their most convincing win of the ssn against ASU as they rushed for 237 yds (5.2) vs a Sun Devil defense that hadn’t allowed more than 137 ypg on the ground all ssn. While these 2 have the offenses to put up big pts week in and week out (66 ppg S/’93 in this series), Stanford (off a bye), has covered 10 consec HG’s (3 outright upsets) and get the Ducks in a huge letdown situation here.