Newsletters Nov. 3rd - Nov. 9th

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Over the past 26 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 185-138. Over the L/9Y the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 32 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play:

The visitor has 3 straight upsets as Iowa has dropped B2B HG’s to NU as an 8 pt fav LY and a 20 pt fav in ‘06. The dog (9-2 ATS) has 4 straight upsets and Iowa is 2-6 as a conf HF and 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of B2B conf HG’s. Iowa lost 5 TO’s (-4 overall) in LY’s 22-17 upset loss. NU is 5-0 as a conf AD. Iowa is off a stunning 42-24 win over Indy in which they trailed 21-7 at the half. Big plays turned it in the Hawks’ favor as Sash ret’d an int, which bounced off several players, 86 yds for a TD and Indy controversially had a TD pass overturned and then missed a 28 yd FG. QB Stanzi (228 ypg, 56%, 14-13 ratio) continued his wildly erratic play tossing int’s on 4 straight 3Q poss but also threw 92 and 66 yd TD passes to put the Hawks in the lead. The D leads the B10 with 25 TO’s gained. NU lost the B10’s top passer QB Kafka (244, 67%, 9-7 ratio) in the 2Q and the game 34-13 as Penn St scored on 3 straight plays in the 4Q. Backup Persa hit 14-23 for 115 yd but was sacked 4x in the loss. The banged up Cats’ D is allowing 123 rush ypg (3.8). Iowa has the biggest regular season game in Ferentz’s tenure on deck at OSU. We went against the Cats winning the ‘08 GOY on Ohio St, could they bring the soaring Hawks back down to earth? FORECAST: Northwestern (+) 20 IOWA 27

TULSA 40 Houston 30 - A critical game in the CUSA West race. The HT has won 3 in a row by an avg of 51-16 with the avg cover by 43 ppg! LY UT came in ranked #25, but UH got a career-high 6 TD passes from Keenum as the Cougars scored 70 pts for 1st time S/‘91. Tulsa won the last time here (-1) 56-7 in ‘07. The Hurricane are off a 27-13 upset loss to SMU (-14’) at home. They were outgained 429-322 by an SMU team led by a true frosh QB making his 1st start. TU QB Kinne is avg 187 ypg (58%) with a 12-4 ratio, but was benched LW after throwing 2 early int. WR D Johnson leads with 29 rec (19.6) and is also a dangerous returnman. UH is off a 50-43 (-6’) home win over SMiss. The Cougars put up 750 yds against SM as QB Keenum threw for a career high 559 yds (81%) and 5 TD’s. He is #1 in NCAA avg 412 ypg (72%) with a 25-5 ratio. UH has 6 players with 20+ rec, led by Cleveland with 62 (11.1) and 8 TD’s. They have struggled stopping the run this year (223 ypg, #115 NCAA) and TU’s rush attack is avg 155 ypg. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in the series and we expect that trend to continue here.

Usc 31 ARIZONA ST 6 - USC has won 9 straight vs ASU (6-2-1 ATS) but will be in a very unfamiliar situation here after suffering their worst loss S/’97 LW vs Oregon 47-20 as a 3 pt fav (outgained 613-327). The blowout loss was actually just the 2nd time in Pete Carroll’s 9 yr career that they have lost by more than a TD (11 pt loss to ND in ‘01, Carroll’s 1st ssn). In their last visit to Tempe, USC handed the Sun Devils a 44-24 (-3) beatdown in front of a sold-out Thanksgiving crowd. ASU’s season has fallen apart over the past 2 wks w/a convincing loss to Stanford and a last second defeat to Cal. ASU has dropped 3 of 4 meetings as a HD under Erickson (covered LW), while USC is on a 1-7 ATS run away from home, Carroll is an amazing 27-0 SU in November here at USC while the Trojans are 10-4 ATS off a SU loss in his tenure. We used USC as our GOY in 1994, could we use a mad Trojans bunch again this week vs an overmatched ASU squad?

MICHIGAN 34 Purdue 24 - Mich is 6-2 ATS and the home team is 7-2 ATS. The Wolves have won the L/4 HG’s by 24 ppg and covered by 17 ppg. In fact Purdue is 0-17 SU here, last winning in ‘66. Purdue’s 48-42 win LY was led by 3rd string QB Siller incl a hook and ladder 32 yd TD pass with :26 left. Both teams are off tough outings as the Wolves were poised to take a 20-3 lead with 1&gl at the 1 but were stuffed on 4 straight runs. A rejuvenated Illini then dominated the 2H outscoring the Wolves 31-0 while totalling 406 yds in the half in a 38-13 win. September star QB Forcier hasn’t accounted for a TD in 4 straight gms. UM’s D is all’g 32 ppg and 429 ypg in B10 play. PU was flattened by Wisky 37-0 as the Boilers were manhandled at the LOS with the Badgers having a 266-60 rush yd edge. QB Elliott (231 ypg, 58%, 14-11 ratio) had his worst performance hitting 5-23 for 59 yd with 1 int vs UW and was benched late 3Q. It’s deja vu all over again as both teams were facing bowl elimination going into LY’s game. This year the 3-6 Boilers had outgained every BCS opp until LW while 5-4 UM has been outgained by 42 ypg vs FBS teams and with Wisky and OSU looming are in danger of missing out on the post season again after a 4-0 start. We won our 2007 Bowl GOY on the Over in Michigan/Florida, would we use a Wolves’ game for the big play again?

UNLV 38 Colorado St 24 - These two teams are both going in the wrong direction. CSU started the ssn 3-0 for the 1st time S/’94 and now has dropped 6 str gms. Meanwhile, the Rebels have lost 5 of 6 and this gm is do or die for LV HC Sanford as the Rebs need to win out to go to a bowl game. LY in the same situation, UNLV was 3-6 and won two gms before falling to SDSt in the finale to dash their bowl hopes. Both tms are also having QB issues as CSU benched QB Stucker LW as the Rams fell way behind. UNLV, on the other hand, switched QB’s Clayton and Clausen on nearly every series LW. Clayton is the better passer avg 213 ypg (61%) with a 10-9 ratio while Clausen is the better runner avg 4.3 ypc with 4 TD’s. LY the Rebels led by 1 with 6:05 left and CSU scored with :09 left and then scored on an LV fmbl’d lateral for a very misleading 41-28 margin. CSU is 12-1 SU but just 6-7 ATS vs the Rebs. When two tms are struggling, and in desperate need of a victory, favor the home team with the better talent.

Utah St 31 HAWAII 30 - UH is 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) since becoming WAC foes. The Warriors are #3 in the NCAA in pass off (352 ypg) and QB Moniz is avg 200 ypg (57%) with a 6-5 ratio. WR Salas is #2 in the NCAA with 122 ypg with 59 rec (16.6). UH got off to great start LW at Nevada (led 14-0) but couldn’t hold on. The Aggies are #19 in the NCAA in ttl off avg 437 ypg as QB Borel is avg 240 ypg (58%) with an 11-1 ratio to go along with 342 rush yds. RB Turbin in a workhorse who has 872 yds (6.6). USt has only been a conf AF once in the L/4 season and that was earlier TY in an outright loss at NMSt (20-17, -10’). However, the Aggies are currently on an 11-2 ATS run. USt is a better team than its record reflects playing much more competitively TY and they have played in 4 consecutive gms decided by 4 pts or less (1-3 in those gms) and 5 gms TY decided by one score (1-4 in those contests). USt has lost 10 consecutive AG’s SU and this is their 4th AG in 6 wks and a trip to the Islands is never easy despite the fact that UH has lost 6 consecutive gms, including all 5 WAC contests, for the first time S/’98.

Florida Atl 37 UAB 30 - FAU is 2-1 vs CUSA foes, incl a 49-34 (+13) win over UAB LY. The Owls have dropped 15 straight road gms vs non-conf opp SU, but the majority of those have come vs BCS foes.
Northwestern (+17') over IOWA

KEY SELECTIONS

4H NEW ENGLAND over Miami - The road team has covered 4 straight. NE returns from its bye
week (5-1 ATS) while the Dolphins have to travel back North for the 2nd straight week. NE has the
#3 & #6 units (+9 TO’s) vs MIA #23 & #17 units (-2 TO’s). NE has overwhelming matchup edges here
with Brady (288 ypg 68% 13-2 ratio L5W) vs MIA’s #21 pass defense that is beat up after LW’s brawl
vs the Jets. MIA will have 2 rookie CB’s starting vs Moss & Welker who have combined for 89 rec
(11.8) which is more than MIA’s top 4 receivers. Henne made his 1st road start LW & struggled vs
the Jets blitz heavy defense with 52 yds (60%) with 1 TD & was sacked 5 times. MIA was outgained
378-104 but scored 21 pts in the 3Q despite -4 yds (2 KR’s & fumble return for TD). The Patriots also
have the advantage of extra time to see how the Saints & Jets shut down the Dolphins Wildcat by
blitzing RB Brown whenever he lined up at QB. NE’s offense is only getting better as the year goes
on & look for Belichick to create a gameplan to minimize MIA’s run game & force Henne into mistakes
vs the #5 pass defense here. FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 33 Miami 10

3H SAN FRANCISCO over Tennessee - This is the 3rd straight AFC South foe for SF who have now
dropped 3 straight incl LW’s collapse as they were held scoreless & outgained 219-87 in the 2H. For
those that remember what this Singletary unit does best it is to play physical mistake-free ball control
offense. They need Gore’s running ability to be effective & after having just 14 carries & missing 2
games his 91 yds (7.0) LW is exactly what new starting QB Smith needs in his 1st home start this
season. Smith was solid in 1.5 road games (202 ypg, 63%, 4-2) & Crabtree’s (8 rec, 13.4) speed will
dictate more coverage stretching the field. TEN came out of the bye & switched to Vince Young who
didn’t have to do much (125 yds 83% 1-0) as the Titans rushed for 305 yds (6.2). While he led them to
their first win (430-330 yd edge) TY he now travels cross country making his first road start. In his last
season starting Young struggled away with a 4-11 ratio & 19 sacks compared to a 5-6 ratio & 6 sacks
at home. Prior to SF’s home loss vs ATL (Gore out, no Crabtree) the 49ers won 5 straight at home by
with an avg score of 29-13 going 4-0-1 ATS. FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 28 Tennessee 13

2H Washington (+) over ATLANTA - ATL is in a big situational disadvantage here as they are off
LW’s MNF game vs NO & have road games vs CAR & the NYG on deck. This is only the 2nd time
Ryan has been a DD fav & ATL squeaked out a 31-27 win vs STL LY in a must have game as 14 pt
HF’s. WAS is off their bye week which they used to try & get Sherm Lewis more adjusted to an OL
with 4 different OL starting combos but TE Cooley (29 rec 11.4) will miss a month (ankle). ATL has
the #19 & #23 units (+3 TO’s) prior to MNF & now face a WAS team with the #24 & #4 units (-8 TO’s)
vs the easiest sked TY. ATL has won & covered 4 games TY vs offenses ranked 20th or lower. Their
#27 pass defense has been able to stay in the game allowing 255 ypg (54%) with a 3-4 ratio (5-1
ratio vs rest) with Ryan minding the offense with 245 ypg (68%) & 7-4 ratio. The 3 teams that fired
their OC’s in preseason are still playing catch up TY with a 4-18 SU, 7-16 ATS record being outgained
395-275. This is a tough spot for ATL who could be looking ahead to next week & it wouldn’t be a
surprise to see them struggle with a WAS defense needing a win after the big MNF loss prior to the
bye. The Ugly Dog returns (25-16 61%) for WAS who should get a generous amount of points here.
FORECAST: Washington 13 (+) ATLANTA 17

2H SEATTLE over Detroit - The Lions were in a very favorable situation LW as they came out of
the bye & hosted a Rams team that avg’d just 8.6 ypg on the year. DET was unable to contain RB
Jackson who had 149 yds (6.8) & gave up a fake FG for a TD. DET has played West Coast games
the L2Y losing by 18 & 37 but they haven’t been at Qwest Field since 2006. DET has been outgained
409-259 on the road TY losing by an avg score of 40-17. SEA simply doesn’t travel well as their 38-17
loss LW (outgained 325-199 when DAL went up 38-10) shows. SEA is much better at home where
both wins were shutouts vs STL & JAX with a 413-223 yd margin. SEA was manhandled by ARZ
prior to the bye but DET simply lacks the experience at QB or WR weapons that ARZ has. SEA is
getting healthier a little bit at time & this is a must win as they have 3 straight road games on deck.
Look for Stafford to struggle in the notoriously loud crowd noise here where foes have been flagged
for 92 false start penalties since the stadium opened. FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 Detroit 9

JACKSONVILLE 27 Kansas City 17 - The Chiefs return off the bye week with the #30 & #30 units (+1
TO) vs JAX (1-7 ATS after TEN) with the #11 & #25 units (-2 TO’s). KC won’t have troubled RB Johnson
(51 ypg 2.7) here & his comments after the SD game have basically ended his tenure here. HC Haley
noted that he was revamping an offense that has been outgained 395-217 on the road TY having been
held to 203 or less in 4 games overall. Cassel has really only had 1 bad game TY (SD 82 yds 42% 1-3) &
he gets a very poor JAX pass defense (#26) that has given up a 13-5 ratio. JAX has once again developed
a trend to play down to the level of their foes TY losing to a beat up SEA team with Wallace at QB, getting
taken to OT by the Rams & were flat vs TEN. JAX was outFD 12-4 & outgained 189-127 at the half with
80 of those yards coming on a TD run by Jones-Drew. All 3 of their ATS wins have come vs AFC South
foes & vs non-div teams they have been outscored 31-13 (-3 TO’s) & are 0-5 ATS. Look for JAX to play
one of it’s best games of the year vs a KC team that has struggled to find consistency all season.

CINCINNATI 17 Baltimore 14 - CIN beat BAL 17-14 as a 9 pt AD in the 1st meeting TY. CIN dominated
the game statistically with 22-12 FD & 403-257 yd edges but needed a 80/11pl drive for the win that
was helped out by 3 pen vs BAL. RB Benson became the 1st player to rush for over 100 yds in 40
games vs BAL. Palmer (6-2 ATS vs BAL) is showing flashes of his 2005 form with 235 ypg (61%) with
a 10-3 ratio over L5 games. The key to CIN’s surge has been the OL which has fielded the same 5
starters without 1st RD DC Smith. The OL has allowed just 1 sack every 19 pass att’s (every 10 LY)
has a 4.3 ypc (3.6 LY) & CIN has converted 42% on 3rd Dns. BAL bounced back into the win column
LW with a quality win over DEN whose ball control offense played into the Ravens hands. BAL forced
DEN to punt on 5 of its 1st 6 drives with a fumble on the other holding them to 3 of 13 on 3rd Dns.
CIN is only 2-6 ATS after a bye & after blowing out CHI the question remains on how well they will
handle success (lost to HOU after going 4-1) & we’ll call for the home team by a FG here.

INDIANAPOLIS 34 Houston 20 - HOU has only beaten IND 1 time since their inception & that
was at the end of 2006 after IND had won the division & were flat off a MNF game. HOU comes in
with the #8 & #16 units (+2 TO’s) vs the Colts who own the #4 & #9 units (+6 TO’s). Both teams are
rather similar with QB’s playing at a high level (31-11 combined ratio) with a bare bones run game
that does just enough to break the pace. Manning has avg’d 275 ypg (71%) with 33-5 ratio vs HOU
& the Texans #14 pass defense is inflated after facing BUF, SF, OAK & TEN TY. IND has only had
one starting OL miss a game TY & have allowed 5 sacks (1 every 53 pass att’s) & face a HOU team
which is 30th in the NFL with 11 sacks. HOU blew out a BUF team that had won 2 games due to +4
TO’s each with a 439-204 yd edge but could be without TE Daniels (knee) who is 2nd on the team
with 40 rec (13.0). Despite another 300 yd game Manning was irate at the offense after such a poor
performance (4-1 ATS at home after scoring 18 or less), HOU comes in dinged up & have only played
1 defense TY ranked in the top 10 (NYJ).

Green Bay 33 TAMPA BAY 17 - TB beat GB 30-21 LY as a 1.5 pt HF. The Bucs dominated the game
with a 327-181 yd edge as the Packers had 4 TO’s which TB turned into 24 pts. Now GB comes in
with the #9 & #4 units (+12 TO’s) vs the Bucs #28 & #29 units (-2 TO’s). TB has lost 11 straight (1-9-1
ATS) & will start 1st RD DC Josh Freeman here. Freeman is a Jr QB that went 14-19 as a starter at
Kansas St & Morris has stated that he isn’t dialing down the offense for him. TB’s homefield advantage
has evaporated (1-7 ATS) where they have been outgained 394-260 losing by a 29-14 margin. GB
(4-0 SU & ATS after MIN) gets a great matchup with Rodgers (256 ypg 65% 14-2) vs the #15 pass
defense that has given up a 16-8 ratio TY. GB has dominated similarly talented teams TY going 3-0
SU & ATS vs STL, DET & CLE with a 432-208 yd edge and 31-7 avg score. LW GB had its hands
full with the #1 sack defense & now get the #29 sack defense (11). TB will try to grind the game out
& protect Freeman but GB is much more explosive on both sides of the ball & should win easily.

Arizona 27 CHICAGO 20 - The Cardinals have evolved into a formidable road team as incl playoffs they
are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS. Warner has avg’d 250 ypg (74%) with a 5-2 ratio on the road TY with the Cardinals
scoring 27 ppg. LW the Cardinals looked flat off the win vs the NYG & struggled against CAR’s #2 pass
D. They fought back holding CAR to 75 yds in the 2H but 3 TO’s in the 4Q proved too much. They’ll match
up much better against the #12 pass D of CHI which is inflated after facing CLE who has just ONE sack
in 3 Wks. While CHI routed CLE LW with a 369-191 yd edge they struggled in their 2 other HG’s avg 276
ypg vs DET & PIT. The Bears are now 3-0 SU/ATS vs losing teams (combined rec of 4-18) but just 1-3
SU/ATS against winning teams getting outscored by over 10 ppg. One cause for concern is the CHI OL
which gave up 4 sacks to CLE LW despite leading almost the entire game by DD. The early forecast is for
mid 50˚’s & sunny & this adds up to ARZ getting their 4th straight win & cover on the road this year.

NEW ORLEANS 35 Carolina 17 - CAR is in a tough spot here after a long flight out West and they
now have to travel to NO who are off a MNF home game. NO is 10-1 ATS at home & faces a CAR
team that is 6-10 ATS on the road. The Saints have faced 3 foes TY ranked 10th or higher on defense
(PHI, NYJ NYG) going 3-0 SU & ATS with Brees making short work of them hitting for 282 ypg (71%)
with a 7-1 ratio. CAR’s #7 defense has been fattened up by facing WAS, TB & BUF but LW vs ARZ
they did a solid job holding Warner to 242 yds (59%) with a 2-5 ratio. Delhomme (90 yds 50% 1 TD
on 14 att’s) was only tasked with keeping the Cardinals defense honest thanks to 13 pts off TO’s. CAR
had 270 yds rushing (6.1) LW but NO is only allowing 92 ypg (4.0) & NO has a 5-11 ratio on defense.
The Saints have the edge with Brees over Delhomme, a deeper & more versatile receiving corps & a
defense allowing just 267 ypg at home that has 2 or more takeaways in 5 games TY.

NY GIANTS 28 San Diego 20 - The Giants have lost 3 in a row for the 1st time since Dec 2006 & now find
themselves 3rd in the NFC East. The Giants got boosted numbers off 3 straight foes that are a combined
3-19 then fell back to earth when confronted with 3 higher quality teams. Manning has struggled during
the span avg 214 ypg (50%) with a 3-6 ratio. The injuries in the back 7 which were masked during the
3 game win streak have been exposed during the losing streak as they have given up 269 ypg passing
(67%) with an 8-1 ratio. Now the same situation is played in the Giants favor as the Chargers who have
lost SU & ATS to 3 higher quality teams in BAL, PIT & DEN have now gotten inflated standings after
playing KC & OAK. SD has serious flaws on the OL (75 ypg rush 3.1), DL (132 ypg rush allowed 4.2)
with a secondary that has given up 243 ypg (72%) with a 7-1 ratio to Flacco, Roethlisberger & Orton.
Rivers will get his passing yards but going cross country vs an angry & embarrassed Giants team with
a bye on deck that always plays its best with its back against the wall is too much here.

Dallas at PHILADELPHIA - Dallas used their bye to propel themselves to B2B wins & covers getting
us a Top LPS winner LW vs Seattle. The Cowboys offense which has been lambasted is actually #2 in
the NFL and now faces an Eagles defense which is #10. PHI is playing their 3rd straight division game
& wins at WAS and LW vs the NYG have put them in the lead in this early season NFC East showdown
for the NFC East lead. Get this play on the Northcoast Debit Card System for only $9 after 11:00
am on Sunday. Sunday Night Private Play Hotline Marquee Plays are currently 5-2 this year!!!

Pittsburgh at DENVER - This should be an entertaining game matching DEN off their 1st loss vs
a PIT squad that has reeled off 4 straight wins incl knocking off MIN prior to their bye. The Steeler’s
are 0-3 ATS away TY but while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS at home 2 were as HD & they were only a 3
pt fav to the 1-7 Browns.

LOGICAL APPROACH

COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: UNLV - 1 over Colorado State - It's been a disappointing season for UNLV as the rebels were projected by some experts to be a Bowl team but 1t 3-6 they must win out to become eligible. Yet a look at their schedule shows they pretty much have performed as expected, losing to the much better teams on their schedule for the most part, especially at home. Colorado State is also 3-6 but the Rams started 3-0 and are winless in conference play. The teams are fairly close statistically with UNLV having the more potent offense but also the more porous defense. UNLV was in a similar position last season and made a late run but finished 5-7 after dropping their season finale. They should also be motivated to get their first win over CSU on their home field. With CSU in perhaps even a worse frame of mind than the Rebels, UNLV's goals are achievable and they should outlast this foe. UNLV wins 34-27.

Other Featured College Selections
Lsu + 8 over ALABAMA - Alabama is working on a second straight perfect regular season but needs a win here to earn the SEC West Title, at 5-1 in conference play, an upset by LSU would give the Tigers the edge for the right to play Florida in the SEC title game. 'Bama is rested after a Bye week although LSU had pretty much a scrimmage last week in beating Tulane 42-0. LSU is 7-1 overall with their lone loss coming at home to Florida, 13-3. Both teams have outstanding defenses. Alabama has been a bit more productive on offense but neither offense turns the ball over. LSU had won 5 straight in the series before 'Bama won 27-21 at LSU last season. The talent level is fairly even and both teams are loaded with speed, especially on defense. The home field is an edge for the Tide although LSU has played well on the road since Miles took over for Saban as coach. This should be a typical low scoring and physical SEC game with more big plays made by the two defenses. An upset would not shock, but Alabama should win a tight one. Alabama wins but by just 20-16.

KANSAS STATE + 3 over Kansas - Kansas started 5-0 but has dropped 3 in a row with 2 of the 3 coming away from home. Their lone road win came early at weak UTEP. Bill Snyder has returned to coach K State after a 3 season hiatus and he built the program from nothing in the 1980's into a perennial Top 10 team for much of the 1990's and into this decade. He always made a point of winning this intra-state rivalry and had great success in doing so, often winning by 5 TDs or more. Since he "retired" Kansas has won all 3 meetings, including 52-21 last season. A win here maintains their lead in the Big 12 North which could lead to a BCS Bowl should they get by Texas. KSU has had several impressive efforts this season and last week showed no quit despite trailing 21-0 in the first quarter at Oklahoma, closing to within 28-23 before falling 42-30. The talent level is fairly even but the motivation and intangibles are very strong on the K State sideline, especially as they take to the field named for their coach in their most important game. Kansas State wins 31-23.

STANFORD + 5 ½ over Oregon - Oregon was extremely impressive in routing USC 47-20 last week and they have been receiving kudos and "atta boys" all week on campus. Meanwhile Stanford had a Bye and has had extra time to prepare for perhaps the nation's hottest team. And the Cardinal is more than capable of hanging in against the Ducks. The have a better balanced offense, rushing and passing for over 200 yards per game. Oregon has the better defense but that defense could be slowed on the grass surface. In their only game on grass this season Oregon struggled to a 24-10 win at UCLA, basically winning the game with 4 great minutes of football at the start of the third quarter. Stanford is improving under coach Jim Harbaugh and they need one more win to become Bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. Oregon has won 7 in a row over Stanford, covering the first 6 before Stanford covered as + 14 in last year's 35-28 road loss. The gap between the teams has narrowed and Oregon is in a natural flat spot, ripe for the upset. Stanford wins 28-27.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
BUFFALO - 3 over Bowling Green [1]
TEMPLE - 17 over Miami Ohio [2]
Illinois + 6 ½ over MINNESOTA
NORTH CAROLINA STATE - 7 over Maryland
South Carolina + 7 over ARKANSAS
Oklahoma State - 7 ½ over IOWA STATE
Byu - 13 ½ over WYOMING
Navy + 11 * over NOTRE DAME
Kent State - 3 over AKRON
Army + 17 over AIR FORCE
PENN STATE - 3 ½ over Ohio State
SAN DIEGO STATE + 25 over Tcu
Fresno State - 7 ½ over IDAHO
UTAH - 27 ½ over New Mexico
Oregon State + 7 over CALIFORNIA
COLORADO + 3 over Texas A&M
Houston Pick 'em over TULSA
ARIZONA STATE + 10 ½ over Usc
MICHIGAN - 6 over Purdue
HAWAII + 2 over Utah State
Florida Atlantic + 6 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over Florida Internt'l

The Rest (Leans)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 21 over E. Michigan [2]
EAST CAROLINA + 12 ½ over Virginia Tech [2]
LOUISIANA TECH + 21 over Boise State [3]
Western Michigan + 18 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
CINCINNATI - 16 ½ * over Connecticut
Syracuse + 22 over PITTSBURGH
IOWA - 16 over Northwestern
WEST VIRGINIA - 19 over Louisville
Wake Forest + 16 over GEORGIA TECH
Duke + 9 over NORTH CAROLINA
Wisconsin - 10 ½ over INDIANA
MISSOURI - 14 over Baylor
Vanderbilt + 35 over FLORIDA
SMU - 18 over Rice
Utep - 7 over TULANE
Central Florida + 35 ½ over TEXAS
Oklahoma - 5 ½ over NEBRASKA
ARIZONA - 33 over Washington State
UCLA - 4 over Washington
MIAMI FLA - 14 over Virginia
TENNESSEE - 25 ½ over Memphis
CLEMSON - 8 over Florida State
NORTH TEXAS - 1 over UL Monroe
Troy - 24 ½ over WESTERN KENTUCKY
ARKANSAS STATE - 13 ½ over UL Lafayette
Nevada Reno - 13 over SAN JOSE STATE [4]

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SAN FRANCISCO - 4 over Tennessee - Tennessee finally got their first win last week but still allowed over 200 yards rushing as the defense continues to struggle following the departure of long time defensive coordinator Schwartz to Detroit. San Francisco followed up their strong second half in Houston a week earlier with a solid effort in an 18-14 loss at Indianapolis, forcing the Colts to settle for 4 field goals and holding QB Manning without a TD pass. The change to Smith at QB has been promising and the Niners return home looking to end a 3 game losing streak that started with a blowout loss to Atlanta on this field three weeks ago. Fundamentally the Titans # 2 rushing offense will face the Niner's # 2 rushing defense. Neither team has much of a passing offense although both pass defenses are vulnerable. The overall defensive strongly stats favor San Francisco. Tennessee QB Young has a history of inconsistent play. The Niners are 5-1 ATS and in favorable circumstance. San Francisco wins 27-14.

Other Featured NFL Selections:
CINCINNATI + 3 over Baltimore - Baltimore plays to avenge a last minute home loss to the Bengals from earlier this season. Cincinnati is rested following their Bye and playing with confidence on both sides of the football. The Ravens ended their 3 game losing streak with an impressive second half against previously unbeaten Denver last week. The Bengals have already defeated the Steelers at home and have a rematch at Pittsburgh next week. Here they have a chance to improve to 4-0 in Division play. As favorites the interest might not be there. But as home underdogs it's a different story, especially with Baltimore allowing at least 26 points in all 3 road games. Surprisingly both teams are allowing the same 88 rushing ypg. Both teams have played a similar level of competition with their foes an identical 29-22. The perception remains that the Ravens are clearly the better team but this season's performances show these teams are pretty even. Thus despite Baltimore's revenge motive, this game should be priced closer to pick 'em. Cincinnati wins 23-16.

Washington + 10 over ATLANTA - Atlanta played well at Division rival New Orleans Monday night but lost despite a +1 turnover edge and slightly outgaining the Saints in total yards. Washington is off their Bye which should have given them time to implement changes to the offense. The loss of TE Cooley further weakens that unit. The Redskins' defense has performed well and that unit will be called upon to keep them in most games. Atlanta is allowing just 13.7 points per game at home although their basic defensive stats are rather ordinary. Whether Washington can capitalize is debatable. Atlanta QB Ryan is starting to show signs of regression in his second season and that plays to Washington's strength, their # 3 ranked pass defense. The matchups suggest Atlanta prevails in a more competitive contest than expected. Atlanta wins 21-17.

Dallas + 3 over PHILADELPHIA - Since their shocking loss at Oakland the Eagles have played two excellent games in defeating their other two NFC East rivals Washington and New York by a combined 67-34. Dallas has also won a pair of games following their Bye, outscoring Atlanta and Seattle 75-38. Both teams' offenses are clicking and in 3 of their last 4 meetings the Cowboys and Eagles have scored at least 50 points. At the end of last season the Cowboys needed simply to win on this field to make the Playoffs, even after Oakland shocked Tampa Bay to give the Eagles the same opportunity with a win. The result? Philly won 44-6, so the Cowboys have a revenge motive in a game that will see the winner alone atop the NFC East. Dallas has the better rushing and passing offense while Philly has put up the better defensive stats. Dallas may have the best defensive player on the field in LB Ware. Both teams are playing their best football and in such an evenly matched game any points are worth taking with either team capable of winning. Dallas wins 31-27.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
INDIANAPOLIS - 9 over Houston
TAMPA BAY + 10 over Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND - 10 ½ over Miami

The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE - 6 ½ over Kansas City
CHICAGO - 3 over Arizona
Carolina + 14 over NEW ORLEANS
SEATTLE - 10 over Detroit
N Y GIANTS - 4 over San Diego
DENVER + 3 over Pittsburgh (Monday)

Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 43
Houston/Indianapolis UNDER 48
Washington/Atlanta UNDER 42
San Diego/N Y Giants OVER 47 ½
Dallas/Philadelphia OVER 47 ½
Pittsburgh/Denver UNDER 39

Money Line Recommendations
College: Illinois
KANSAS STATE
STANFORD
COLORADO
Pro:
CINCINNATI
SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas
DENVER

RED SHEET

Wisconsin 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00 EST) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 11, and is still minus 11. We
have been a bit leery of backing the Badgers over the last season or so, due to the fact that
their defense hasn't held up its part of the bargain, allowing 28 ppg in 10 lined games previous
to last week, when they pitched a shutout over the always dangerous Boilers of Purdue.
But it was only a matter of time, as they've held their last 4 foes to 15, 8, 16, & 8 FDs, & that
includes holding OhioSt to 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs, at Columbus. Hoosiers have had their
moments, but "D" is crumbling, & won't contain Clay & Co here.
RATING: WISCONSIN 89

KANSAS STATE 37 - Kansas 27 - (12:30) - Line opened at Kansas minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. The
Jayhawks have certainly had their way with the Wildcats since the departure of Snyder, with
3 wins & covers, taking KSt by a 52-21 count last year. And despite his return, the 'Cats
hardly opened impressively, with SU & ATS losses to Lafayette & Ucla, sandwiched with
wins over the likes of UMass & TennTech. Then a 66-14 lambasting at TexasTech. But 3-0
ATS since (by 79½ pts), while compiling a 62-20 pt edge in their last 2 HGs. The Jays are
struggling (0-3 SU, 0-5 ATS), have no running offense, & QB Reesing is hurting.
RATING: KANSAS STATE 89

Byu 34 - WYOMING 30 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 13, and is still minus 13. Quite a turnaround for
the Cowboys, who opened this season on a seemingly impossible 4-22 spread slide. Well,
thus far in '09, only Temple matches their 6-1 record vs the pts. Incredible. After a shaky
start, the 'Pokes have held their last 3 opponents to just 15 ppg, & that includes AirForce &
Utah, who managed only 3 & 9 pts respectively, thru 3 quarters. The Coogs, of course, can
score with the best of them (43 ppg 6 of last 7), behind the leadership of Hall (2,231 PYs), but
that BYU "D" is another matter (32 ppg last 6 outings). A dog call.
RATING: WYOMING 88

Maryland 33 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 30 - (12:30) -- Line opened at NoCaroSt minus 6½, and is now
minus 7. Much like the BYU Cougars above, the Wolfpack of NCSt has little trouble in
moving the ball (30.4 ppg in their last 5 contests), but have been absolutely skewered by
their uncomplimentary defense, which has allowed 41.4 ppg over those same 5 games.
Sure, 'Pack QB Wilson is in off a 349 PY, 5 TD showing vs FloridaSt, but nonetheless, a 45-
42 loss. The Terps have dropped their last 3 games, but were in all 3, & are amazing 12-1
ATS off a pair of SU setbacks. Rested off bye, & note series dog covering 18-of-23!
RATING: MARYLAND 88

SMU 44 - Rice 17 - (3:00) -- Line opened at SMU minus 18½, and is now minus 17½. Circle this one as
atonement for the Ponies, after last year's embarrassing 56-27 loss to the Owls. As a
matter of fact, Rice posted a 56-7 pt edge over one span of that game. But things have a
way of coming around, & with Rice owning the worst scoring defense in the land (45.5 ppg),
while scoring at only 15 ppg, compared to last year's 41.3 ppg offense, now is the time. As
noted early in the season, with 7 starters gone from that "O", there is no way that the Owls
can be competitive, as that "D" has always been suspect. 'Stangs nail revenge.
RATING: SMU 88

Arizona 27 - CHICAGO 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 3, and is still minus 3. Bears came in
nicely for us a week ago, as our Top Play on Pointwise, which snapped mini 0-2 slide, both
SU & ATS. But that one was against the horrid Browns. Another matter here, as they catch
the Cards off an atrocious performance, both offensively, & defensively, and when that happens,
'Zona simply bounces back. LW, Warne tossed 5 INTs vs Carolina, which had '08
playoff revenge in its favor. But Bear QB Cutler is hardly the epitome of steadiness (11
INTs). Cards Plus 87½ pts ATS in their last 4 RGs. Can't be dismissed.
RATING: ARIZONA 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): MichSt, Duke, GaTech, OklaSt, AirForce -- NFL: GBay, Houston, Denver

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Missouri (-14½ to -17); Pitt (-18 to -20½); TCU (-22 to -24½);
UtahSt (-1 to -3); WesternKy (+26 to +24); Boise (-19½ to -21); NoCarolina (-7 to -8½) - NFL: Giants (-3 to -4) -

Nelly's Greensheet

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 OHIO STATE (+3½) over Penn State
RATING 4 CLEMSON (-8½) over Florida State
RATING 3 OKLAHOMA (-6) over Nebraska
RATING 2 MARYLAND (+7½) over NC State
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-19) over Syracuse
RATING 1 KANSAS STATE (+2½) over Kansas
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9) over Lsu

Boise State (-20) LOUISIANA TECH 7:00 PM
Louisiana Tech has endured a disappointing year by any measure coming off a bowl season
last year and now 3-5. A golden opportunity for a win was wasted last week as huge lead was
given up in a one-point loss at Idaho. The Bulldogs had decent yardage production against
Boise State last season but lost 38-3 and in 2007 the Broncos barely escaped Ruston in a
narrow win. Louisiana Tech has covered in six straight games as home underdogs and
although Boise State will aim to tack on as much scoring as they can this could be a tough
match-up especially with a greatly improved state rival next on the schedule. It is tough to
justify going against Boise State but this will be long travel and the third road game in four
weeks to a historically difficult venue. BOISE STATE BY 17

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2009

MICHIGAN STATE (-18) Western Michigan 11:00 AM
Michigan State lost to a MAC team earlier this season so there will be no taking this match-up
lightly although the Spartans could be in a questionable emotional state follow ing back-toback
tough losses. Michigan State had Iowa beat two weeks ago before losing on the final
play and last week the Spartans came back after falling behind early but ultimately fell to 4-5
on the year. Western Michigan is also 4-5 and this has been a disappointing Broncos team
that was expected to be a threat in the MAC West. Western is just 2-6 ATS on the season and
lost S/U and ATS against two Big Ten schools early in the year. This will be the second
straight week on the road for Western Michigan and the Broncos are on a 14-22-1 run as
double-digit underdogs. Michigan State has been a very difficult team to run against this
season and there have been a lot mistakes in the passing game for Western despite
experience on the team. If the Spartans were playing well this might be a tough situation and
a game that gets overlooked but with bowl hopes likely hinging on this game a solid
performance should be expected. MICHIGAN STATE BY 24

CINCINNATI (NL) Connecticut 11:00 AM
As if the emotional toll was not enough for the Huskies they have suffered brutal losses the
past two weeks in close games. The Huskies scored to take the lead late last week but then
quickly surrendered the go-ahead score in the final minute. Connecticut had a dominant
yardage edge last week but lost starting QB Cody Endres early in the game and the early
season starter Zach Frazer came in and threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is now 8-0 and
clearly the team to beat in the Big East while in the thick of the national picture. There are
difficult games ahead and last season Connecticut beat Cincinnati 40-16 as turnovers played
a big role. Back-up QB Zach Collaros has played well for the Bearcats and starter Tony Pike
could be available soon. Both teams have been outstanding ATS performers on the year and
Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS the last 17 home games. Connecticut has proven the ability to play a
close game regardless of the foe and the Huskies have played the tougher schedule on the
season. The Bearcats appear on the verge of being overvalued. CINCINNATI BY 10

PITTSBURGH (-19) Syracuse 11:00 AM
The Panthers have had a week off to prepare for this game and soak in a 7-1 start including 4-
0 in conference play. Two big conference tests are waiting at the end of the season and a
non-conference match-up next week against Notre Dame could overshadow this game.
Syracuse has three wins on the season but the Orange sit 0-3 S/U and ATS in Big East play.
Syracuse has featured a solid run defense that will go up against a Pittsburgh rushing attack
that is averaging 179 yards per game. The Pitt defense also leads the nation in sacks while
allowing just 18 points per game and creating a lot of turnovers. This will be the first
conference road game for the Orange and the offense had very little produc tion in the only
other road game faced all year. Although Syracuse has played a slightly tougher schedule
Pittsburgh has been thoroughly impressive at home and the Panthers can keep a great
season going with another win. PITTSBURGH BY 27

IOWA (-17½) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Not only did the Hawkeyes rally back to win last week they inexplicably covered a lofty spread
despite trailing by ten entering the fourth quarter. In just as remarkable fashion Northwestern
failed to cover getting a big number despite being tied entering the fourth quarter. Wildcats QB
Mike Kafka left the game in the second quarter and that contributed to the Northwestern fade
as the Wildcats ventured deep into Penn State territory several times without getting points.
Iowa QB Ricky Stanz i had five interceptions last week but has proven to be a clutch fourth
quarter performer. Northwestern beat Iowa 22-17 last year holding on with an incredible late
game defensive stand to open the Big Ten season. Northwestern is 5-4 but will have an uphill
battle to get back to a bowl game but last week’s effort against a quality opponent was
encouraging. Losing Kafka really hurts Northwestern but the Wildcats are team that generally
hangs around and can put up points. Iowa continues to survive but another close call could be
in order particularly looking ahead to the huge Ohio State game next week. IOWA BY 10

MINNESOTA (-6) Illinois 11:00 AM
The Gophers picked up a big win last week and looks in line for a bowl bid with opportunities
for wins this week and next week against FCS South Dakota State. Last year this team closed
the season on a five game losing streak so getting back in the win column after two ugly
performances was of paramount importance. Illinois has been arguably the most disappointing
team in the nation but everything clicked last week for a 38-13 stunner against Michigan. Even
with all the losses Illinois is a strong rushing team, averaging 197 yards per game on the
ground, nearly double Minnesota’s output. The Gophers played without WR Decker last week
and still passed for 416 yards but this is a team that has been out-gained in seven of nine
games this season. Although this looks like a favorable match-up for Illinois this is a team that
has found plenty of ways to beat itself and will be playing a third road game in four weeks.
While Minnesota is coming off a big home win the letdown risk is greater for an Illinois team
that blew out Michigan last week and picked up its first FBS win of the season. Illinois may be
a play on team in games ahead and the rushing angle is promising but Minnesota has been a
tough home team and Illinois is Coach Brewster’s alma mater. MINNESOTA BY 10

WEST VIRGINIA (-19½) Louisville 11:00 AM
The Mountaineers have failed to cover in five of the last six games but at 6-2 overall and 2-1
in the Big East, West Virginia will still control its own destiny with opportunities against
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the coming weeks. Louisville is struggling through a very
disappointing but not altogether unexpected losing season and the Cardinals have not been
competitive in three conference games. Louisville won last week against Arkansas State but
the offense is scoring just over 20 points per game while posting poor defensive results. West
Virginia ran the ball at will last season in this match-up and another big day on the ground is
likely in order but the Mountaineers have been a flaky favorite and the offense is not scoring
nearly as much as in past years. Louisville is certainly a struggling team but this line could
climb too high and taking the points may make sense. WEST VIRGINIA BY 13

NC STATE (-7½) Maryland 11:00 AM
Maryland is 2-6 on the season but one win came impressively against a pretty strong Clemson
team. The Terps also led late in their other ACC home gam e before falling apart. With two
week s to prepare for this game Maryland should come up with a great game plan to attack a
very suspect NC State defense. Injuries have crippled the Wolfpack secondary and last week
NC State allowed over 550 yards in a 45-42 shootout loss. Maryland has a decent passing
game despite turning the ball over a lot and there should be opportunities in this match-up.
Maryland won on a late field goal last season at home and as an underdog in this series the
Terps are 11-3-1 in the last 15 instances. After another tough loss this could be a tough game
for NC State and the Wolfpack are 4-16 ATS in the last 20 games as home favorites.
Maryland has ugly numbers but they have played a much tougher schedule and with the extra
preparation time this should be a good set-up for the dog. MARYLAND BY 3

GEORGIA TECH (-14½) Wake Forest 11:00 AM
The Yellow Jackets have now won and covered in six straight games to take complete control
of the ACC. Georgia Tech is rushing for 304 yards per game and despite a flat early effort last
week the Yellow Jackets have been good enough to keep putting up points late in games.
Wake Forest is coming off a very tough loss as the Deacons led most of the way against
Miami but end up with a one-point loss despite about a 200 yard edge in the game. The
Demon Deacons have lost three straight games but four of the five losses on the year have
come by three points or less. Wake Forest has played Navy this season and twice last year so
the Deacons will have familiarity with the Georgia Tech offense. Value could be on a Deacons
team that has been very competitive all season but QB Skinner may be out for this game.
Georgia Tech is on a roll right now and is playing to elevate its national standing. Taking the
running team ov er the passing team generally pays off and this is the third road game in four
weeks for Wake Forest coming off a very tough loss to swallow. GEORGIA TECH BY 21

NORTH CAROLINA (-7½) Duke 2:00 PM
UNC delivered a big upset win at home last week against Virginia Tech and this rivalry game
will have bowl eligibility clinched for the winner. Duke has won three straight games, all in
ACC play and the Blue Devils have just one ATS loss on the season and three S/U road wins,
rare feats in recent years. Duke has played the easiest schedule of any ACC team but the
passing offense is posting huge numbers, averaging 325 yards per game in the air. North
Carolina has one the best statistical defenses in the nation, allowing just 265 yards and 16
points per game. The Tar Heels have had overwhelming success in this series but the last
four meetings have all been very tightly contested and it makes sense to back the much more
explosive underdog against a team coming off a huge primetime win. DUKE BY 3

Wisconsin (-11) INDIANA 11:00 AM
Coming off a bye week and back-to-back losses Wisconsin played a near-flawless game to
shutout Purdue 37-0. The Badgers have two Big Ten losses but they came against what
appears to be the top two teams in the conference. Indiana enters this game off two incredibly
depressing losses. The Hoosiers have squandered huge leads the last two weeks and a once
promising shot at bowl eligibility looks rather grim. In four of five Big Ten games Indiana has
played very competitively even if they have just one conference win and this is a team that
has exceeded expectations. Wisconsin has had no trouble with Indiana the last four years and
the outstanding rushing attack for the Badgers should have a lot of success in this match-up.
Through a tougher schedule Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team and unless the
Badgers have turnovers they should deliver a solid win on the road. WISCONSIN BY 14

ARKANSAS (-5) South Carolina 11:20 AM
The Gamecocks have been a very tough road team but last week fumbled in three of their first
five possessions to build an insurmountable deficit. South Carolina out-gained Tennessee last
week and has been an incredibly tough team on defense, allowing just 294 yards per game. In
contrast Arkansas is allowing 410 yards and 27 points per game. The Razorback offense has
had a few big games and has scored at least 40 points in every non-road game this season.
The last two meetings in this series have been double-digit wins for the home team but this
historically has been a tightly contested match-up. Arkansas was much more dominant last
week than the final score suggests but the Razors are just 1-4 S/U in SEC play and this is
team that has allowed at least 19 points in every FBS game. Only twice this season has South
Carolina allowed as many points as Arkansas gives up on average per game and both of
those instances were turnover driven. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 3

Oklahoma State (-7½) IOWA STATE 12:00 PM
The final score looked ugly for Oklahoma State last week but the Cowboys had five turnovers
and held Texas to just 275 yards. Last season OSU won 59-17 at home against Iowa State
but this has been a home dominated series. The Cyclones have delivered five wins this year
but last week lost badly at Texas A&M. Iowa State’s only home loss this season came against
undefeated Iowa. ISU was still without starting QB Austen Arnaud last week and his return
would provide a boost to this offense. Oklahoma State has struggled to protect its QB this
season and Iowa State is an opportunistic defensive team and turnovers will play a pivotal role
in this match-up. With the Cowboys coming off a disappointing effort against Texas this could
be a flat spot and Iowa State has been a surprise team. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 6

MISSOURI (-16) Baylor 1:00 PM
The Tigers bounced back from three straight losses with an impressive win at Colorado last
week. Missouri had a dominant yardage edge in the game and QB Gabbert appeared healthy
with a solid game although he did throw two interceptions. Missouri barely beat Baylor last
season despite being a better overall team than this year by most accounts but the Bears
have struggled with several injuries this year. Baylor has now lost four straight games with
only 34 points scored in that span and the offense will have a hard time keeping up. Baylor is
allowing 385 yards per game but is only giving up 24 points per game but the offense has not
been able to match those numbers. Statistically on offense these teams are closer than one
might think but Missouri has continued production into the Big XII campaign while Baylor has
stalled in recent weeks as the quality of schedule has improved. MISSOURI BY 21

FLORIDA (-32½) Vanderbilt 6:15 PM
The undefeated Gators cruised with little resistance last week and last year Florida beat
Vanderbilt 42-14. While some have criticized the Florida offense as being less explosive than
last season the numbers are still adding up impressively. The Gators are the sixth best
scoring offense in the nation while rushing for 252 yards per game. The passing game has not
had glowing numbers but rarely have the Gators been in a situation where they have needed
to pass. Vanderbilt has lost five straight games after a 2-2 start and there is only one ATS win
in that span. Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing just 22 points per game even after giving 56 last
week and the Commodores held tough with Georgia Tech last week for most of the game.
Florida’s quality of schedule has dramatically improved in recent weeks but on paper they
should be on cruise control the rest of the season. Vanderbilt has put up decent numbers as a
big underdog but going against Florida will have little positive return. FLORIDA BY 41

Byu (-13) WYOMING 1:00 PM
Wyoming has allowed just 72 points in four Mountain West games and the Cowboys have
faced two of the top four teams already. Wyoming played Utah very tough last week on the
road and the Cowboys are 2-0 S/U in MWC home games this season. Wyoming is 13-5 the
last 18 games as home underdogs and BYU could have motivation issues after falling well
short of season goals and national goals that came with the huge opening win over
Oklahoma. Last year BYU won 44-0 at home in this series and the Cougars are 5-0 S/U and
ATS in this series. This is a different Wyoming team however and quietly the Cowboy s have
covered in six of seven lined games this season. BYU has had two weeks to prepare for this
game and recover from a disastrous effort against TCU. BYU has not lived up to expectations
this season and if Wyoming can find the end zone this likely is a tough cover for the Cougars
as Wyoming can be a very tough place to play this time of year. BYU BY 7

NOTRE DAME (NL) Navy 1:30 PM
The Midshipmen were without a few key players last week and a five-game winning streak
was snapped at home against Temple. Notre Dame moved to 6-2 but the Irish are 1-6 ATS in
the last seven games including 0-6 as favorites. Navy has just one recent S/U win in this
series but the ATS results have favored the service academy with a 17-9 ATS mark since ’82.
As usual Navy is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, posting nearly 280 yards per
game on the ground and this will be a true rush vs. pass game as Notre Dame is one of the
top passing teams in the nation. The Irish are still lined up to be BCS bowl bound if they win
out to the chagrin of many and looking past Navy to a huge game with Pittsburgh next week is
a possibility. This is a much bigger game for Navy each year but the Midshipmen are not likely
to be 100 percent. Notre Dame has benefited from one of the top turnov er margins in the
nation as this is a team that could easily have twice as many losses but the Irish may be
undervalued in a series where Navy has had recent success. NOTRE DAME BY 10

SMU (-18) Rice 2:00 PM
The Mustangs are up to 4-4 and with the remaining schedule ahead this looks like a bowl
team after going 1-11 last year. Rice won 56-27 last year in this in-state match-up but the
Owls are still winless in 2009. Rice has had two weeks to ready for this match-up and SMU
has failed to cover in seven consecutive games as a favorite. Rice has had a lot of success in
this series and even though the results have been terrible this season, the best effort of the
year could be on the way. SMU enters this game off an upset win at Tulsa, winning by two
touchdow ns as a two touchdown underdog. The statistics are awful for Rice, scoring 14 points
per game while allowing more than 45 per game but this spread has ballooned to
unreasonable proportions considering the SMU defense is also quite vulnerable. Starting QB
Levi Mitchell did not play for SMU last week and his return or a second start for freshmen Kyle
Pardon likely leads to worse results this week as the Mustangs were set-up in some favorable
situations last week. Backing Rice is scary but that is the appropriate play here. SMU BY 17

Utep (-6½) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Miners were favored by many to win Conference USA this season but making a bowl
game will be an uphill battle for UTEP, sitting at 3-5 and 2-2 in the conference. UTEP has wins
over Tulsa and Houston however, generally considered the top two teams in the West
division. Last season UTEP overcame an early deficit to win in this series at home but the
Miners are 1-6 ATS in the last seven attempts as road favorites. UTEP is allowing 33 points
per game this season while scoring just 26 points per game but the numbers are much worse
for Tulane. The Wave has just one FBS win on the season and they have now lost S/U and
ATS in each of the last four games. On average Tulane has been out-gained by 100 yards per
game and also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. UTEP is a tough team to
trust but Tulane is 4-13-1 the last 18 games as home underdogs. Tulane has faced a more
challenging schedule but this has been an easy team to run against and the defense could be
worn out after facing very tough offensive match-ups the last three weeks. Look for the Miners
to get a key win to stay in the division race. UTEP BY 9

ALABAMA (-9) Lsu 2:30 PM
While LSU’s early season results seriously brought the team into question as a highly ranked
national team, the loss to Florida seems to have awoken a giant with dominating efforts the
last two weeks. LSU is allowing just 12 points per game and though the offense is averaging
just 325 yards per game the Tigers have posted 73 points the last two games. Alabama beat
LSU in overtime last season in games the Tigers had a yardage advantage but QB Jarrett Lee
threw four interceptions. Alabama will once again enter this game undefeated and this is the
most significant test leading up to the potential SEC championship game with undefeated
teams. If LSU wins this game they would move in position to win the SEC West though it
would be far from a done deal. Alabama has some of the best defensive numbers in the
nation, allowing just 240 yards per game with exceptional numbers against the run. Against a
good LSU run defense the Tide could be forced to pass more but overall Alabama looks well
suited to move on and continue down the perfect path. LSU has had a lot of success in this
series and Alabama has struggled as a home favorite but those trends are fairly meaningless
given the changes these programs have endured in recent years, and with Coach Saban
being a part of the numbers on both sides. ALABAMA BY 16

TEXAS (NL) Central Florida 11:00 AM
Central Florida delivered Sunday night with a frantic comeback and the Knights are on the
way to a winning year now at 5-3. Texas moved to #2 in the BCS standings with a win over
Oklahoma State last week and the Longhorns will have a very clear path to an undefeated
season but could conceivably get caught in those rankings as the schedule strength is going
to diminish. Texas did not have a productive offensive game last week but they were giftwrapped
five turnovers to create an easy win on the scoreboard. Texas has only covered in
one home game this season and UCF is a very solid defensive team that could make this a
somewhat competitive game if Texas does not bring complete focus. UCF has been a very
tough team to run against and although the offensive numbers are fairly pedestrian they have
been a big upgrade from last season. Miami beat UCF just 27-7 in a fairly tight game in
Orlando and in the Knights could hang around in what should be an inflated spread. There will
be some emphasis on ‘style points’ in what could be some very tight voting and computer
rating races but this is a clear flat spot for Texas, leaving conference play and facing an
overmatched foe. TEXAS BY 24

Kent State (-3) AKRON 2:30 PM
Many thought Akron might be a contender in the MAC East this season but the main rival Kent
has taken on that role with a 4-1 MAC start. Kent will have a chanc e to face current division
leader Temple in a few weeks but overlooking Akron would be a big mistake. Akron is just 1-7
but the Zips have struggled through some key injuries and most of the losses have been
competitive efforts against a much higher quality schedule. Last year Akron beat Kent 30-27 in
overtime and this is generally a closer series between two nearby rivals. Kent is actually just
2-10 S/U in the last twelve meetings between these teams and Akron has been a solid home
underdog. Kent is on a roll with a six straight ATS wins but statistically there are some serious
concerns with the viability of the Flashes. Kent is allowing more yards than they have gained
and the offense is scoring just 21 points per game while allowing nearly that many. Akron is a
much better team than the record indicates and they had a solid NIU team on the ropes much
of the way last week. Look for a home underdog cover in this game. AKRON BY 3

AIR FORCE (-17) Army 2:30 PM
Army is just 2-10 in the last 12 meetings between these teams and Air Force can clinch bowl
eligibility with a win this week. Army has had two weeks to get ready for this match-up
however and though the Knights are on a 1-6 ATS run they have been a tough team to pull
away from. Army is allowing just 290 yards per game but the offense has been less productive
and is averaging just 16 points per game despite facing one of the weaker schedules in the
nation. Air Force features a great rushing attack but this has also been a very good defensive
team. The Falcons are allowing just 13 points per game and they have already faced the top
two teams in the MWC. Last season Air Force won just 16-7 last year and the worst loss of
the season for Army came by just 21 points. These teams are familiar with each other and the
extra preparation time may give Army and edge to get back on track after a few tough losses.
AIR FORCE BY 13

Kansas (-2½) KANSAS STATE 12:00 PM
Despite losing last week Kansas State still leads the Big XII North and the Wildcats have
covered in five of the last six games. Kansas was projected by many as the favorite in the
division but the Jayhawks are just 1-3 in league play and this is a team that has failed in five
straight ATS. Kansas won big last season 52-21 but Kansas State is putting together some
impressive play this season. The Wildcats hung tough with Oklahoma last week in a fairly
even statistical game that was close throughout. The Wildcats have won and covered in every
home game this season and after a blowout loss to Texas Tech this is a team playing like it
can win the division. Kansas has faced three tough games the past two weeks and after
blowing an early lead last week with a fourth quarter meltdown it may be tough to bounce
back. Kansas is just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings of this series and Kansas State has
been the better defensive team and a far better rushing team while facing a slightly more
challenging schedule. KANSAS STATE BY 6

Oklahoma (-6) NEBRASKA 12:00 PM
Nebraska got back in the win column last week but it was hardly an impressive showing.
Baylor has been completely out-matched by other Big XII teams in recent weeks but the Bears
lost just 20-10 against Nebraska and the Huskers offense has been very unreliable with just
64 points in four Big XII games and several long stretches of scoring droughts. Nebraska has
great defensive numbers but through a tougher schedule Oklahoma has virtually the sam e
numbers while being a far more dangerous offensive team. Oklahoma beat Nebraska 62-28
last season and although the Sooners are not the same team this is still a team that is five
points away from being undefeated despite playing with an untested back-up QB most of the
season. Nebraska has failed to cover in three consecutive games and the Sooners have been
strong performers as road favorites. Nebraska has already had a distraction this week with
star DT Ndamukong Suh ticketed for a bizarre driving incident and the Huskers can not be
relied on to find the end zone. OKLAHOMA BY 14

PENN STATE (-3½) Ohio State 2:30 PM
This was expected to be the big game in the Big Ten season and although it still has serious
implications it is not the national game that was expected as both teams have losses. Penn
State lost to still undefeated Iowa early in the year, the team Ohio State will face next week.
Penn State has gone on to win five straight since that game but the schedule has been weak
and the wins have not been overly impressive as the Lions trailed most of the way last week
before a late flurry created a misleading final. Ohio State was shocked at Purdue but the
Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games. Last season Penn State won 13-6 in an even
statistical game. Penn State has better numbers on both sides of the ball and some of the
best statistics in the nation but the schedules have not been even close. Ohio State has faced
a much tougher slate and Ohio State is 9-3 ATS in the last twelve meetings as favorites in this
series. Penn State still looks a bit phony even though they are getting strong results and the
Buckeyes should carry some momentum into a huge game next week. OHIO STATE BY 10

Tcu (-24) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:00 PM
At 4-4 it has been a solid turnaround season for San Diego State and the Aztecs are on a rare
winning streak entering this game. The Frogs won 41-7 last year on the road in this series but
TCU is just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games as double-digit road favorites. TCU delivered its first
shutout of the season last year and stole a late cover in the game and the Frogs have the top
ranked defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed. The offense has scored 35 points per
game but the production has been much lower in road games. San Diego State does not have
a serious running game which might ac tually be an advantage in this match-up as the Aztecs
may not waste time trying to run against a very good rush defense. TCU’s three closest
games this season have all been road games and with the showdown with Utah next on the
schedule there could be a little lack of focus this week if a lead is developed early, although
the Frogs did a lot of late scoring last week. San Diego State’s defense has improved
considerably this season and this could be a closer game than most will expect. TCU BY 21

Fresno State (-6½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
The WAC conference has featured four quality teams this season battling on top of the
standings and this will be a key match-up for the pecking order for bowl invitations. Idaho is
already bowl eligible at 7-2 in one of the great turnarounds of the season. This was a close
game last season as Fresno won 45-32 in a game that Idaho actually had a yardage
advantage. The Bulldogs have won four straight after a 1-3 start although last week was a
close call. Idaho rallied for a comeback win last week but after a perfect ATS start to the
season value has caught the Vandals with back-to-back ATS losses. Idaho has covered in five
straight as home underdogs but Fresno State has been the superior statistical team by nearly
every measure through a much tougher schedule. Fresno State has also had to overcome a
major turnover disadvantage on the year and the Bulldogs may be much better than they are
actually regarded. All three of Fresno’s losses have been respectable efforts against high
quality teams and a bit of flat effort last week should be forgiven. FRESNO STATE BY 14

UTAH (-27) New Mexico 5:00 PM
The Lobos moved to 0-8 on the season last week despite playing one of their most
competitiv e games of the season. Utah is quietly 7-1 and moving up the rankings with a big
showdown with TCU waiting next week. The Utes only loss came in a close game at Oregon
which looks like a very high quality loss at this point. These teams share 2-6 ATS records on
the year however. New Mexico has had some recent ATS success in this series and the
Lobos gave Utah one of its closest games last year, losing just 13-10. New Mexico has gone
through a complete transformation however and so far none of the changes have been for the
better. Utah is allowing less than 17 points per game but the offense has only scored 27
points per game there have already been a few narrow escapes this season. New Mexico will
aim to pass in this match-up but Utah has been one of the toughest teams to throw against in
the nation. New Mexico showed some hope last week and covering an inflated spread against
Utah team that is not that high-scoring should be possible. UTAH BY 24

ARIZONA (-30½) Washington State 5:00 PM
All alone in second place in the Pac -10 is an Arizona team that is poised for a great season.
The remaining schedule is far from easy after this game but another bowl trip looks likely in
the works after years of futility. Washington State got a backdoor cover last week and the
Cougars are amazingly 5-1 ATS in the last six games as the spreads have become incredibly
inflated. Washington State is allowing 511 yards per game while the offense is posting 282
yards per game, both among the worst in the nation. This will also be the third straight road
game for Washington State and the distance traveled has been immense after playing in San
Antonio last week. The scoring numbers for Arizona are not great but the Wildcats have outgained
foes by about 130 yards per game and both of these teams have played schedules
that rate among the most difficult in the nation. Arizona is off a bye week and this is a team
that is capable of putting up big numbers but this spread is greatly inflated and the Cougar
cover run can continue though the outcome should never be in doubt. ARIZONA BY 24

CALIFORNIA (-6) Oregon State 6:00 PM
After back-to-back ugly losses, Cal has recuperated with three consecutive wins although last
week’s win was quite narrow. The Bears have not delivered great ATS results and they were
not close against the top two teams in the conference making a strong case that Cal was
overrated to start the year and probably still so. Oregon State continues to be a team that
plays great late season ball. The Beavers are a well coached team that has remained in the
upper echelon of the conference since Coach Riley took back over the program. Oregon State
is 18-11 ATS in the last 29 road games and the Beavers have covered in three of the last four
games and led big in last week’s game before needing a late final score to pullout the win.
Oregon State beat Cal 34-21 last season with a dominant defensive performance. Cal has
been slightly better statistically through fairly even strength schedules but the Bears have
been incredibly fortunate with turnovers and Oregon State will be a very tough team to beat in
an underdog role. This line looks a bit high as Oregon State has been much more impressive
in conference play so far this season. OREGON STATE BY 4

UCLA (-4½) Washington 2:00 PM
The Bruins are favored as the home team but UCLA has now lost five consecutive games and
last week was the first cover in the stretch, a game they trailed severely before a late
comeback. Washington has lost four of its last five games but the Huskies have beaten three
teams that have a combined record of 18-6. Washington has played the top rated schedule in
the nation although UCLA is not far behind as both teams are likely better than the records
indicate in a very tough Pac -10. UCLA has had great recent success in this series but
Washington will be rested off a bye week and the Huskies have been a far superior offensive
team. UCLA’s is regarded as a great defensive team but the numbers have slipped
considerably in recent weeks. UCLA has allowed at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game and
the Bruins have been held under 20 in four of those games. Look for a bounce back from the
Huskies in a key spot as UCLA has not proven capable of scoring enough points to win as a
favorite against a team that has been dangerous. WASHINGTON BY 7

Oregon (-5) STANFORD 2:30 PM
While this is likely a favorable situation for Stanford it remains to be seen whether the Cardinal
are ready to take a major step forward. Stanford is 5-3 with four games remaining but none of
the remaining gam es will provide an easy opportunity for a win. Oregon enters this game off a
huge win over USC and a very clear path to a conference title is ahead for the Ducks with a 5-
0 Pac-10 start. Stanford has covered in each of the last ten home games however and the
Cardinal has had two weeks to focus on this game while Oregon faces a serious letdown spot.
This was a wild game last season as Stanford took a one-point lead with just over two minutes
to go but Oregon rallied for the win. Oregon had four fumbles in that game but managed to
win but it was the lone missed cover in the past seven meetings between these teams for the
Ducks. Stanford is a threat in this match-up as they rush for 205 yards per game. Oregon has
been even more productive on the ground but a home underdog that can run the ball well
makes for a favorable play -on scenario. Oregon may emerge as the elite team they currently
rank as but this will be a serious test. OREGON BY 3

Texas A&M (-5½) COLORADO 12:30 AM
The Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility and this is the game to get at as Oklahoma
and Texas are still left on the schedule. The Aggies have historically been a lousy road team
but the last two weeks have featured very impressive performances from Texas A&M.
Colorado is just 2-6 in another horribly disappointing year and the wheels are nearly
completely off in the Dan Hawkins era. After a big win over Kansas the Buffaloes appeared to
be turning the corner but the last two weeks have featured poor efforts. Colorado rushes for
just 76 yards per game and the defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game. Colorado has
also been plagued by injuries and turnovers and although the Buffaloes have had to face the
Big XII’s toughest schedule the rest of the season offers little promise. A&M is putting up 490
yards per game and although the defense has struggled the Aggies will be a tough team to
keep pace with. Colorado actually had a statistical edge in this match-up last season but
found a way to lose, a recurring common theme for the program . TEXAS A&M BY 11

MIAMI, FL (-13) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Hurricanes barely squeaked by last week but at 6-2 through a challenging schedule
Miami has a nice resume. Miami has often failed in the home favorite role in recent years and
Virginia can be a dangerous underdog but the gap appears distant between these teams this
season. Virginia is averaging just 277 yards of offense per game and the defense has failed
against the rush and then against the pass the last two weeks. Last season Miami needed an
extra session to knock out the Cavs despite a huge yardage advantage but this year the game
does not figure to be as close. Virginia has failed the last two weeks at home and this is not a
game that Miami can afford to overlook. The Hurricanes are allowing slightly more scoring on
defense but the schedule has been more difficult while Virginia is yet to top 20 points in an
ACC game this season while one 47-point effort is making for misleading scoring numbers on
the year. The Hurricanes are due for a convincing win. MIAMI BY 17

TENNESSEE (-25) Memphis 6:00 PM
The Tigers appeared to be in a decent situation last week but turnovers led to another loss in
a disappointing season. Tennessee revived bowl hopes with a win against South Carolina
where fumbles were a big help. The Vols have not won consecutive games all season long
but this should be the best opportunity for a win streak. Tennessee has been a disaster as a
home favorite in recent years but through a difficult schedule new life has been injected into
this program even if the results have not been any better. Memphis is allowing over 30 points
per game and the Tigers have suffered from one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
Memphis has also played a relatively easy schedule and only so much can be blamed on
injuries, which have been a factor this year. Tennessee has played well the last three weeks
and this is a team that has made a lot of progress on offense and will not be afraid to run up
the score with the first opportunity. TENNESSEE BY 31

CLEMSON (-8½) Florida State 11:00 AM
The Tigers currently sit on top of the ACC Atlantic and though it is hard to believe, Florida
State could still be a factor in this division despite starting 0-3 in ACC play. The Seminoles
survived another close game last week in a true shootout as the teams combined for nearly
1,000 yards. Florida State beat Clemson 41-27 last season but a lot has changed for these
teams and it is a series Clemson has had more recent success in. FSU QB Christian Ponder
was banged up last week but the main concern for the Seminoles continues to be a defense
that is allowing nearly 30 points and 428 yards per game. Meanwhile Clemson has
outstanding defensive numbers allowing just 16 points and 278 yards per game. After a 2-3
start Clemson has won three in a row and the Tigers could finish the year on a roll as the
remaining schedule is fairly favorable. CLEMSON BY 21

Houston (-2½) TULSA 6:30 PM
The Cougars have had to survive a few close games but at 7-1 Houston is still a quality team
that must be respected. Tulsa has fallen in three consecutive games to slide in the West
standings but an upset here could make things interesting by giving SMU the outright lead for
the time being. Tulsa has lost three straight close games as the offense in no longer feared
and the defense has not been good enough to win games. Houston is posting incredible
numbers with 563 yards per game and the ATS numbers have been very good even in some
bad situations. The trends favor Tulsa but the Cougars keep finding ways. HOUSTON BY 7

Usc (-11½) ARIZONA STATE 7:00 PM
Coming off a loss that most likely eliminates the Trojans from BCS bowl potential and the Pac-
10 title it could be a tough week for USC. Arizona State has played a soft schedule but the
Sun Devils played Cal tough last week and remain a threat as a home underdog even if USC
had owned this series. These teams have very similar defensive numbers but USC outshines
ASU on offense and has played a far tougher slate. USC is 2-6 ATS on the season but the
overall body of work is still pretty strong for the Trojans and there may be a bit of an
overreaction following one bad game that came in a tough scheduling spot. ASU was badly
out-gained last week and the Trojans should rebound. USC BY 17

MICHIGAN (-3½) Purdue 11:00 AM
While Michigan was impressive early in the year the numbers from the young QB duo have
been terrible in recent games and the Wolverines are 1-4 in Big Ten play following an ugly
loss to Illinois. Purdue faces a tough turnaround after a disastrous performance in Madison
and turnovers continue to haunt an otherwise productive team. Michigan has not been a
strong ATS performer at home but there may be value on the Wolverines coming off back-toback
losses to Penn State and Illinois, two teams that were expected to be at the top of the
Big Ten in the preseason rankings. Purdue has not had success in this series and this could
be a good spot for Michigan to get rolling again. MICHIGAN BY 7

Colorado State (-1½) UNLV 9:00 PM
Promising starts have gone wrong for these teams as CSU is on a six game losing streak and
UNLV has dropped five of the last six and both teams have horrible ATS numbers in that
span. Colorado State has faced a much tougher schedule and the Rams have had the better
of two bad defenses. Last season CSU won 41-28 with a big yardage edge and even though
this is a road game the Rams should have success in this match-up. Colorado State is still
searching for its first MWC win and this will be a great opportunity. The three wins for the
Rams have been much more impressive than the trio of ugly victories for UNLV but backing a
road favorite makes little sense in a match-up of bad teams. UNLV BY 7

Utah State (-3) HAWAII 9:05 PM
The line took a long time to come out on the Hawaii game last week given the QB situation but
Bryant Moniz did end up starting and Hawaii easily covered an inflated spot despite losing the
sixth straight game. Hawaii’s passing game can put up big numbers but the defense is
allowing nearly 33 points per game and the turnover deficit has been huge. Utah State is 6-1
ATS on the season and the Aggies played very close at Fresno State last week. This will be
long travel and a second straight road game but USU has been a productive offensive team
that could really find some opportunities this week. Utah State beat Hawaii 30-14 last season
and QB Borel is doing a great job of taking care of the ball. UTAH STATE BY 10

UAB (-4½) Florida Atlantic 1:00 PM
The Owls blew a significant lead last week, falling to 2-5 despite great offensive numbers.
FSU is allowing 34 points per game but catching UAB off a big upset win might be a promising
situation. UAB is a great rushing team that averages 230 yards per game on the ground and
after playing five of the last six on the road this will be a welcome home game. The defense
for UAB has been very poor and although the Owls have let a few games slip by this should
be a dangerous team that features several veterans in key spots. UAB actually still has a shot
in the C-USA East but this could be a tricky out-of-conference game. Both of these teams are
2-4 S/U and ATS in the last six games but FAU has out-gained its opponent in four of those
games while UAB has been out-gained in all six games. FAU BY 4

NORTH TEXAS (PK) UL-Monroe 3:00 PM
In what was a close back-and-forth game, North Texas pulled away for its second win last
week. Monroe is coming off back-to-back losses but all four losses have come against quality
teams. Last week’s loss to the conference leader Troy was closer than the final score
indicated and Monroe’s solid rushing attack makes the Warhawks a solid road performer.
North Texas has not defeated anyone of consequence and the defensive effort from the Mean
Green was problematic last week. Monroe starting QB Trey Revell has not played in the past
two games and his potential return could be a big boost for the Warhawks. Even in losses the
last two weeks without the starting QB Monroe out-gained Kentucky by 47 yards and was outyarded
against Troy by just 32 yards. Monroe failed to cover in both games but there were
fairly competitive affairs on the road and the competition lightens this week. MONROE BY 7

Troy (-24) WESTERN KENTUCKY 4:00 PM
The Trojans have won and covered in six straight games to take command of the Sun Belt
and the yardage advantages are tremendous in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 0-8 and
rates as the weakest team in the FBS level. The last two years this has been a tightly
contested game however as Troy won by just ten at home last year and only by four on the
road in 2007. Western is 1-7 in the last eight lined home games. TROY BY 28

ARKANSAS STATE (-11½) Louisiana 2:30 PM
The Red Wolves have been the much stronger defensive team as these teams have nearly
identical offensive figures. Arkansas State is just 2-5 while Louisiana is 4-4 but the Red
Wolves grade as the stronger team by most measures and the schedule has been more
difficult. In home games ASU is allowing just 13 points per game and the lone home loss
came by three points against Troy. Louisiana is playing second straight road game and the
home team has won S/U in nine consecutive meetings in this series. Louisiana has actually
played well in both Sun Belt road games and this may be too steep of a line for an ASU team
that is on a 3-11 ATS run. ARKANSAS STATE BY 6

MID TENNESSEE ST (-14) Florida Intl 3:30 PM
MTSU has five wins on the season and the next three games will all be at home. The Blue
Raiders could guarantee themselves a bowl game with a strong finish to the season and this
will be a key game after losing in this match-up last season. FIU has played a slightly tougher
schedule but MTSU has been better by 100 yards per game on defense and 70 yards per
game on offense. The scoring numbers are actually fairly close however and MTSU could
letdown after stealing a big win last week late in the game. MTSU BY 7

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Nevada (-13) SAN JOSE STATE 7:30 PM
The Wolf Pack has covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series and Nevada has
nearly doubled the SJSU offensive production on the year. Defensively the teams are pretty
close but the rushing edge should be tremendous as Nevada averages 319 yards per game.
Nevada is just 2-7 the last nine games as road favorites and overall is 0-3 ATS on the road
this season. SJSU has an awful record but the schedule has been among the toughest in the
nation and the Spartans have played well at home. NEVADA BY 10

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) over Tennessee
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9½) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit
RATING 2 ARIZONA (+3) over Chicago
RATING 1 MIAMI (+10½) over New England

JACKSONVILLE (-6½) Kansas City (42) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars gave up 305 yards on the ground last week and two turnovers disabled the
Jaguars from keeping up in a game that was tied in the second half. Kansas City is just 1-6
coming out of the bye week and Jacksonville has been the more productive team on offense
by about 100 yards per game. Kansas City has faced a more challenging schedule and these
teams have nearly identical defensive numbers. The Jaguars have covered just once in the
last ten games as favorites and the injuries on the defense have really weakened this team.
Although it has been a great struggle overall the last two seasons for the Chiefs, the ATS
numbers have actually been significantly stronger in road games and after three straight ugly
performances the Jaguars are a very tough team to lay points with even against a bad Kansas
City team that has had plenty of problems. JAGUARS BY 4

Baltimore (-3) CINCINNATI (43½) 12:00 PM
Both the Ravens and Bengals have played very tough schedules yet emerge near the midway
point with winning records. While Baltimore got a great effort off the bye week last week , the
Bengals will have that opportunity this week. Cincinnati won the first meeting 17-14 and
statistically the game was not nearly that close as the Bengals had over 400 yards and held
the Raven running game in check. Baltimore actually started the game with an interception
return for a touchdown and still lost at home, giving a lot of credibility to this Cincinnati squad.
In terms of yardage Baltimore has been slightly stronger on both sides of the ball but
Cincinnati is allowing fewer points and the running game has greatly improved. Baltimore is
just 3-7 ATS in the last ten in this series but won 34-3 last year in Cincinnati. The Ravens
played well last week and will be set to even the series. RAVENS BY 4

INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) Houston (48) 12:00 PM
The Texans coaching staff made a big statement last week benching RB Steve Slaton and the
move paid off as turnovers ceased and the Texans pulled away late for a road win. This it’s
the first meeting of the season between these teams and the Texans are the only remaining
threat to the Colts for NFC South supremacy. Both games betw een these teams were decided
by less than a touchdown last season but Houston has just one S/U win in the last five years
of this series. The Colts moved to 7-0 last week but it was a struggle and Indianapolis QB
Peyton Manning did not have a touchdown pass. The Texans have now won three straight
including two of those games on the road and Houston has out-gained its opponents in five
straight games. The Texans appear to be living up to some of the promise shown but this will
be a big step. Houston will likely get a few more points than they deserve here as the public
will flock to Indy even after an ATS miss last week. COLTS BY 4

ATLANTA (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
The Falcons are a solid 4-2 through one of the tougher schedules in the league but Atlanta
has been out-gained in four of the last five contests. Washington is 2-5 but the schedule has
actually been rated the weakest in the entire NFL and the two wins came in narrow victories
against teams that are a combined 1-14. Washington has been a dramatically superior
defensive team in this match-up, allowing 75 fewer yards per game and the Falcons offense
has been marginally more productive than Washington despite the scoring differential.
Amazingly Washington has not been out-gained in five of the last six games and with the
Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons off a huge Monday night division game with the
Saints the set-up is favorable for backing Washington. FALCONS BY 3

Green Bay (-9½) TAMPA BAY (44) 12:00 PM
A look at the remaining schedule reveals few favorable opportunities for the Buccaneers to
actually pick up a win. With the Rams and Titans winning last week it is a lonely winless club
but this could actually be one of the best opportunities for Tampa Bay. Green Bay just played
its biggest game of the season with Minnesota visiting Lambeau and the Packers suffered a
devastating loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and the Bucs have had a lot of
success in this series including a 30-21 win at home last season. The Bucs are also on a 16-
8-1 run as home underdogs. Green Bay has been nearly 100 yards superior on both sides of
the ball in terms of yardage but Tampa has faced a tougher schedule and the last home game
featured a competitive game that could have gone either way. PACKERS BY 6

CHICAGO (-3) Arizona (44½) 12:00 PM
The Bears and Packers are tied at 4-3 in the NFC North but while the Packers are 0-2 against
division leading Minnesota, Chicago will have two cracks at the Vikings to get back into the
race. This is a game that could have wild card implications down the road as both playoff
contenders are at 4-3 and falling to .500 would be a major set back at this point in the year.
Arizona does have a weak division to fall back so this is likely a bigger game for Chicago. The
balance from the Bears offense last week has not been the norm this season and little weight
should be given to a win over Cleveland. Turnovers killed the Cardinals last week and Arizona
still came close to winning that game. Arizona is 3-0 S/U on the road. CARDINALS BY 4

NEW ENGLAND (-10½) Miami (47) 12:00 PM
After being perhaps the unluckiest team in the league two weeks ago in blowing a huge lead
against New Orleans, Miami got luck back on its side with a 30-25 win over the Jets last week.
The Dolphins gained a net of 104 yards while allowing 378 yards but three non-offensive
touchdowns including two 100-yard plus kick returns gave Miami the win despite being
dominated in every offense vs. defense match-up. New England has had two weeks to
prepare for this game but too much credit is being given for lopsided wins in the past two
games for the Patriots. Those teams are a combined 1-13 and the Patriots have struggled in
both division games this season. Miami won in Foxboro last season and this can be a tough
team to match-up against as the defense is better than the numbers suggest against one of
the league’s toughest schedules. PATRIOTS BY 4

NEW ORLEANS (NL) Carolina 3:05 PM
When Carolina does not turnover the ball the Panthers can be a dangerous team and getting
back to the running game has paid dividends with wins in three of the last four games after a
0-3 start to the season. The Panthers have outstanding defensive numbers, allowing just 288
yards per game despite giving up nearly 24 points per game, with a lot of that scoring built on
13 Jake Delhomme interceptions. The Saints are rolling but a short week is faced with backto-
back division games which could make this a difficult scenario. Carolina has covered in four
of the last five meetings between these teams and should the Saints win Monday this could be
a very steep line. The Panthers should be an attractive underdog as a good rushing team with
a strong defense also catching a favorable situation set-up. SAINTS BY 7

SEATTLE (-10) Detroit (43½) 3:05 PM
Matthew Stafford returned last week for the Lions but the offense did not fare well, managing
just ten points with two points coming via a safety. Seattle was expected to be a contender in
the NFC or at least the weak NFC West but the Seahawks have lost five of the last six games.
Seattle has significant yardage edges on both sides of the ball and Detroit is allowing nearly
40 points per game on the road. Seattle is still a tough team to beat at home and aside from a
brutal performance against the Cardinals this team has performed well in the home games.
Detroit has managed just 10 points the last two weeks against two marginal defensive teams
and although there was some early season promise for the Lions this will be a tough spot after
letting a winnable game slip away last week. SEAHAWKS BY 17

SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) Tennessee (40½) 3:15 PM
Having Vince Young back at QB looked like the perfect remedy for the Titans although the bye
week and extra preparation played a big role. No knock on Kerry Collins but the Titans were
trying to pass too much and with Young they focus on what they do best, which is running the
ball with two talented young running backs. Tennessee is still a team with some serious
issues and playing on the road could be a different situation. San Franc isco earned some
respect last week playing tough with the Colts but the reality is that the 49ers have lost three
straight games. This will be a desperate 49ers team that features a good defense and an
offense that has shown a lot more promise with Alex Smith at QB and with RB Frank Gore
healthy again. The Titans played well once but they have mostly played poorly this season
and more consistency is needed before backing this team. 49ERS BY 13

NY GIANTS (-3½) San Diego (47) 3:15 PM
The Giants have been exposed with three straight losses and a closer look at the 5-0 start
reveals only one quality win on the year and that win required a late comeback score. The
Giants defense has allowed 112 points in the last three games and New York has still played
one of the weaker schedules in the league. San Diego has been far from impressive this
season and three of the four wins on the year came against the Raiders and Chiefs. All three
losses came against quality teams in competitive games . San Diego is on an 18-5-1 run as
underdogs but the Giants may have some value back after ugly losses as just a small home
favorite while San Diego travels clear across the country. New York has struggled but is still
the superior rushing team and winning this game is a must. GIANTS BY 7

PHILADELPHIA (-3) Dallas (47½) 7:20 PM
With the Giants fading and the Redskins out of the picture the NFC East looks like a two-team
race and this will be a key battle for early season supremacy. Both teams have delivered
impressive wins the past tw o weeks but Dallas has had a very home heavy schedule and only
has wins over Kansas City and Tampa Bay on the road this year. The Eagles have been an
inconsistent team that often refuses to run the ball and turnovers have factored in the results
either way . The Eagles have been nearly 50 yards per game better on defense but the
Cowboys feature one of the top offenses in the NFL, averaging 411 yards per game, even
though Philadelphia actually has better scoring numbers. Philadelphia has covered in five of
the last six meetings between these teams and as Dallas has historically struggled in this
series. Given suspect road performances from the Cowboys, the Eagles should not be
doubted as a small home favorite this week. Aside from the turnover riddled loss to the Saints
the Eagles have dominated at home. EAGLES BY 10

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2009

Pittsburgh (-3) DENVER (38½) 7:35 PM
The perfect start for the Broncos went up in smoke last week losing badly to the Ravens.
Turnovers and special teams play were a factor in the loss as the defense played much better
than 30 points allowed suggests. Some might disregard the 6-0 start after one bad loss but
the Broncos have defeated several quality teams and by most measures rates as the superior
team to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played a much weaker schedule and the best wins,
beating Minnesota and San Diego featured good fortune. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in all
three road games this season, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati and struggling against the 1-6
Lions. Passing teams have had little success against Denver as the Broncos beat Dallas, New
England, and San Diego with strong defensive performances and Baltimore did not get a lot
done in the air last week even with the win. The Steelers are overvalued in this match-up and
Denver should be capable of a bounce-back effort after their worst performance of the
season. This is still an elite AFC team. BRONCOS BY 6

KELSO STURGEON

PITTSBURGH by 28 over Syracuse—Pittsburgh (7-1) comes into this game of a much-needed bye week and will come out firing, despite the fact in must play Notre Dame next week. There is no look-ahead in this Panther squad and when in high gear is going to crush weak teams such as Syracuse (3-5). There is no reason to think this one will be close.

WEST VIRGINIA by 17 over Louisville—West Virginia (6-2) has a tremendous edge in talent and comes into this in a bounce-back mode having lost 30-19 last week at South Florida. WVU has almost every single edge one can have against Louisville (3-5), a team that has shown no ability to hold its own against the very good teams on its schedule.

ARKANSAS by 14 over South Carolina—Arkansas (4-4) would appear to have South Carolina (6-3) right where it wants the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks have a high octane offense that can score in rapid-fire fashion and South Carolina has shown no signs it can keep up with a team such as this. The Gamecocks play outstanding defense but have no offense. The have scored a total of 29 points in their last three games. Arkansas has the ability to make this a shootout and that puts South Carolina in a big hole.

Texas-El Paso by 13 over TULANE—Texas-El Paso (3-5) remains a team of mystery. On one Saturday, the Miners play as if they could beat anybody—as they did in handing Houston its only loss of the season—and then come back and get knocked off by really bad football teams, including UAB last week. However, with that said, UTEP should have little trouble taking care of a Tulane team that has absolutely no offense.

SMU by 35 over Rice—SMU (4-4) is back on the map and should have little trouble taking care of a Rice team that stands 0-8 and is getting blown out by everybody. The Mustangs played their best game of the season last week in winning 27-13 at Tulsa and one sensed the best is yet to come. It’s been a long time since SMU played a decent brand of football and I look for the Ponies to put it altogether for this homecoming crowd.

TEXAS by 45 over Central Florida—Texas (8-0) is set to run the table and stay alive for a chance to play for the national championship it thought it should have played for last season. Rest assured the Longhorns won’t take Central Florida lightly. Texas went to Central Florida two seasons ago to help the Knights dedicate their new stadium and was life-and-death to get out of town with a 38-35 win. It is also of note Central Florida is coming off a short work week, having played Sunday night. A blowout will be the order of the day.

AIR FORCE by 35 over Army—When the service academies get together, they fire their best shots against one another. The problem with the Air Force (5-4) against Army (3-5) matchup is that the former is firing heavy artillery and Army a pea-shooter. There is no doubt the Falcons have superior talent in this one, have competed well against very good teams and should have little trouble getting the better of an improved but by no means good Army team.

KANSAS STATE by 13 over Kansas-When this season began, there is little doubt Kansas (5-3) had the brighter future. Kansas State (5-4) was coming off a bad season, was operating with a new coach, who had inherited a real mess, and appeared to be lucky if it won a game or two. But the new coach—Bill Snyder—had been at Kansas State before and had built the team into a national power. It is obvious he is on his way again. The Wildcats started slowly, were terrible early in the season, but stand 4-2 in their last six games and come into this off a 42-30 loss at Oklahoma. This is the one Kansas State wants to win and there is no reason to think the Wildcats won’t pull it off.

UTAH by 45 over New Mexico—By Utah (7-1) standards, this is a subpar Utes team but it still is a very good squad that has lost only at Oregon, 31-24, and has the talent to destroy the worst New Mexico (0-8) team this handicapper has seen in the last 15 years. Utah is looking for a major bowl bid and knows it needs to win games such as this, with games at TCU and BYU still on the schedule. The figures say bettors can look for total domination from start to finish.

Best Of The Rest
MICHIGAN STATE by 28 over Western Michigan
IOWA by 21 over Northwestern
MINNESOTA by 10 over Illinois
Maryland by 4 over N.C. STATE
Wisconsin by 17 over INDIANA
Oklahoma State by 14 over IOWA STATE
MISSOURI by 21 over Baylor
FLORIDA by 31 over Vanderbilt
NOTRE DAME by 10 over Navy
Kent State by 8 over AKRON
Fresno State by 21 over IDAHO
ARIZONA by 35 over Washington State
Oregon State by 3 over CALIFORNIA
Washington by 7 over UCLA
OREGON by 28 over Stanford
Texas A&M by 14 over COLORADO
TENNESSEE by 45 over Memphis
Florida State by 4 over CLEMSON
Houston by 17 over TULSA
Arizona State by 6 over USC
MICHIGAN by 7 over Purdue
Colorado State by 7 over UNLV
Utah State by 13 over HAWAII
Florida Atlantic b7 6 over UAB
UL-Monroe by 24 over NORTH TEXAS
Troy by 49 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Arkansas State by 13 over UL-Lafayette
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 17 over Florida International

Marc Lawrence

Friday, November 6

Boise St over LA TECH by 14

The Broncos are actually looking up at WAC-leading Nevada but it’s the BCS
Standings that matter most right now in Boise. Papa Smurf (Chris) Petersen
still has his horses thinking about crashing another BCS party with their
unblemished record but his week’s computer crunching has seen BSU slide all
the way down to #7 in the Big Boy rankings. A word of caution here: Boise is
playing its fifth game on the road in seven weeks and OUR computers tell us
that 8-0 or better road favorites are just 42-65-3 ATS against .300 or greater
opposition. Louisiana Tech, 3-1 ATS in the last four series games, is 4-1 ATS as
double-digit home dog and 6-3 ATS on weekdays. Like playing with fi re? The
Techsters supply the spark.

Saturday, November 7

MICHIGAN ST over W Michigan by 16

Not even a return to East Lansing from Magic Johnson would help cool the heat
surrounding Mark Dantonio. A bowler in his first two seasons at Michigan State,
the Spartans head coach has been roundly criticized recently for supposedly
bad clock management and an unimaginative – and unproductive – offense.
MSU stumbled to a 1-3 start but was seemingly on the comeback trail with
three straight wins to start October before falling to conference foes Iowa and
Minnesota. Western Michigan is 7-3 ATS as a dog of more than seven points
vs. a Big 10 opponent but the Broncos have allowed season high total yards in
their last two games. With MSU facing a non-conference foe in the middle of a
league sandwich, our advice here is to take it or leave it.

CINCINNATI over Connecticut by 10

What were we talking about earlier? Another potential BCS party crasher,
the Bearcats should use caution and look both ways before moving forward
here. UConn, losers of two straight and still battling the emotional hurdle of
Jasper Howard’s death three weeks ago, suffered a brutal last-second loss at
home vs. Rutgers last week and needs two wins in its last four to become bowl
eligible. UC could be in reload situation with the possible return of star QB Tony
Pike; however, HC Brian Kelly is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with revenge vs. an
opponent off a SU and ATS loss. And we would be remiss not to point out that
Connecticut HC Randy Edsall is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on
page 2. The upset bird might be humming here...

PITTSBURGH over Syracuse by 21

Heck, apparently the theme this week is “make sure to look both ways.” And
that theme screams danger ahead for ‘Mr. Milk” Wannstedt as he takes to the
sidelines at Heinz Field. All right, so ketchup and a glass of cow spray isn’t exactly
the breakfast of champions but with so much on the line for the Panthers, they
need to find the right recipe and avoid their typical late-season meltdown.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a loss under Wannstedt and
also 8-2 ATS at home with conference revenge. Syracuse, playing only its second
game away from the Carrier Dome this season, is 2-7 ATS as conference dogs
of 15 points or more and hasn’t exactly been too competitive since an OT loss
in the season-opener. Would love to back the black cats against the crumbling
‘Cuse but the price is just a bit rich for our blood. Pass.

IOWA over Northwestern by 13

After Bill Lynch and his Hoosiers took the Hawkeyes for a trip to the haunted
house last week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Northwestern spring another
trap in Iowa City. Iowa, which has trailed in every game this season, stepped in
and out of the fire for the entire contest with Indiana until some help from the
black-striped zebras turned the tide (it’s becoming apparent the Big 10 wants
an undefeated team to challenge in the BCS polls, isn’t it?). The Hawkeyes don’t
bring much positive pointspread history to this fray. They’re 1-5 ATS as double-
digit conference favorites and 0-4 ATS in conference home games off a home
date – plus it’s almost a certainty that Iowa will be looking past the Wildcats
to next week’s HUGE showdown at the ‘Shoe with Ohio State. Northwestern
is 3-1 ATS the last four games in this series but could be without the services
of starting QB Mike “Don’t Call Me Franz” Kafka, who left last week’s contest
against Penn State with a leg injury. But even if Kafka is unable to go, we’re still
going to take the points and nothing else.

Illinois over MINNESOTA by 1

Welcome to the “OH HELL… IF WE’RE GOING DOWN, WE MIGHT AS WELL TAKE
SOMEONE WITH US” Bowl. Pink-slip-in-waiting-coach No. 1 Ron Zook, whose
recruiting prowess has resulted in just 20 wins in four-plus seasons with Illinois,
has guaranteed himself a fourth losing season in five years in Champaign. But
things aren’t going a whole lot better in Gopher-ville right now either. Pinkslip-
in-waiting-coach No. 2, Tim Brewster, is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than
seven points as the Gophers suit up for the 10th straight time with no rest.
However, Illinois is 11-4 ATS as a road dog vs. an opponent off a win and
outstatted the Gophers 550-312 in a 27-20 defeat as 12.5 home favorites last
year. The Fighting Illini is coming off a win over Michigan – a shocker that
might have moved Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh a little closer to Ann Arbor and
Rich Rodriguez a little further toward the unemployment line. Regardless of all
the crazy coaching scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks, we
look for the Gophers to crawl back into their hole today.

W VIRGINIA over Louisville by 18

Tough task for the Mountaineers to get back up after falling flat at South
Florida last week. Riding into Tampa with a four-game win streak, West
Virginia simply could not solve Bulls’ freshman QB B. J. Daniels, while WVU
RB Noel Devine found no openings in the USF defense. The Mounties have
defeated Louisville three of four times but they’re a feeble 1-10 ATS in their
last 11 games as conference home favorites and 1-7 ATS at home when going
into conference revenge. Who knows where the Mountaineers’ heads will
be at with mighty Cincinnati up next and the Bulls in their rear view mirror?
Louisville, 5-2 ATS as the series dog, is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when taking
doubles. Problem is, current coach Steve Kragthorpe has had NOTHING to do
with compiling positive stats since his arrival in Kentucky. No interest in this
one.

NC STATE over Maryland 1

Turtles HC Ralph Friedgen had to really convince himself last season that
surrendering offensive coordinator duties was in the best interest of the
team. The move turned out to be the right one as Maryland won eight games,
including four straight victories over ranked teams. Now that move seems
like a century ago: Maryland has logged only two wins in 2009, including one
over James Madison, and arrives here 1-5 ATS as a dog with rest. The Terps,
though, are 3-1 ATS away in the series and 11-1-1 ATS off back-to-back losses.
NC State enters on a four-game losing skid and the Pack’s 1-17 ATS badge of
shame as ACC chalk of 3 or more points means they’re the answer to this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3). Fade the Pack!

GA TECH over Wake Forest by 16

Is anybody still questioning the effectiveness of Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson’s
option offense? The Jackets have won six straight games, including a victory over
then No. 4 Virginia Tech, and appear to be a BCS-worthy program. However,
Georgia Tech is 1-6 ATS as favorites off a non-conference road game and just
4-11 ATS as conference home favorites of seven points or more. The Demon
Deacons counter with some strong ATS ammo: they’re 4-1 ATS as double-digit
conference road dogs and head coach Jim Grobe is 5-1 SU in his career off
three straight losses. Wake fell asleep in the second half against Miami last
week and needs to score in two of their last three regular season games to
get a pin-dropping invite. But the Bees are hot and that makes this one a very
tough call.

N CAROLINA over Duke by 3

A meaningful Devils vs. Heels tilt and it’s not February? Thanks to star QB
Thaddeus Lewis and a stout defense, which has held their last three opponents
to season low – or second fewest – total yards, Duke owns its most wins in a
season since 2003 and is just two victories shy of a qualifying for Lane No. 1. The
Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS the last three in this series and 3-0 ATS the last three
here. How many times can the Tar Heels pump air into a set of leaky tires? A
week after blowing a three-touchdown lead against FSU, UNC stunned Virginia
Tech on the road. But North Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a conference favorite of
three or more points under HC Butch Davis so hoops be damned… we’ll be
Devilish and take the points.

Wisconsin over INDIANA by 10

Talk about getting off the deck. The Swiss Cheese Factory put together
their most complete effort of the year in goose-egging the Boilermakers
and stayed on track to go bowling for the fourth straight year since Bret
Bielema took over at Madison. The Badgers, faced with a revenger against
Michigan coming up, are 0-9 ATS off a win vs. an opponent with revenge
off a double-digit loss. Indiana HC Bill Lynch might want to start throwing
chairs after suffering back-to-back gut-wrenching defeats in which the
Hoosiers blew big leads. IU is playing its 10 straight game without rest here
and needs two more wins to reach the postseason promised land. Problem
is the Hoosiers might be running on empty. Let’s look elsewhere for a little
fuel.

GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

S Carolina over ARKANSAS by 7
The dark night of Knoxville scared the ball right of the Gamecocks’ hands
last week while the Hogs fattened up on a helping of Halloween cupcakes.
South Carolina, 5-1 SU after six games into the 2009 season, has dropped
two straight on the road and plays another in this spot. The Gamecocks,
who fumbled on their first two offensive possessions at Tennessee and
never recovered, are 7-2 ATS away vs. conference revenge and 8-3 ATS
as a conference road dog of seven points or more. In addition, the Ol’
Ball Coach is 9-4 ATS away off an away game against a conference foe.
Arkansas is back at .500 after slapping 63 points on overmatched Eastern
Michigan, not exactly something to be real proud of. The Razorbacks,
who have allowed season-high total yards in the last two games, are
0-7 ATS at home with conference. With the SMART BOX calling out the
Cocks, and Petrino going up against Spurrier after the Hogs effortless
win, an upset is in order.

Oklahoma St over IOWA ST by 10

What are the chances the Cowboys won’t be too thrilled to come out fi ring a
week after getting poked by the Horns? Oklahoma State had a case of stage
freight from the opening bell as QB Zac Robinson found players wearing the
wrong color jersey four times – with two of those interceptions returned
for touchdowns. The ‘Boys, 12-1 ATS before Texas Tech and 6-1-2 ATS as
conference road favorites of 10 or more points, are also 5-1 ATS after Texas
and 4-1-1 ATS vs. conference revenge. Iowa State is just 1-5 ATS as home dogs
of 10 points or more and 1-4 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. ISU
starting QB Austen Arnaud (bruised throwing hand) is expected to go against
the Cowboys after missing the last two games. Good for him. We’ll throw it
around elsewhere.

4* BEST BET
In need of a breather after climbing 150 set of stairs without a break?
Well, Missouri should know. The Tigers, losers of three straight games to
ranked opponents, unloaded early on Colorado with 33 straight points
last week before holding off a second half surge. Mizzou returns home
off back-to-back previous home losses after building a 19-1 SU mark at
Columbia in their prior 20 home games. The Tigers are also 11-4 ATS at
home vs. an opponent with revenge and have limited four of their last fi ve
foes to season low – or second low – total yards. Our powerful database
tells us that home teams off a SU and ATS win preceded by an 0-3 SU and
ATS record in their previous three games are a sterling 32-12-1 ATS vs. a
conference opponent off a loss. Baylor, 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven series
games and 0-4 ATS in the last four here, could qualify for a bowling trip
with a 3-1 finish but that would include a victory against Texas… and we
know that’s NOT going to happen. Tigers are GREATTTTTTTTT!
MISSOURI over Baylor by 27

FLORIDA over Vanderbilt by 31

The Gators not-so-offensive offense showed signs of life in last week’s
dismantling of the black shirts as Tim Tebow provided the Dawgs with plenty of
headaches. But that was then and this is now – and the ATS archives warn us that
Florida is 1-5 ATS at home in between road games and just 2-6 ATS as conference
home favorites of 21 points. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 5-1-1 ATS in their
last seven away against a conference foe and a sporty 6-1 ATS as a conference
road dog of 27 or more points. Still, this is Vandy we’re talking about so while
the points may look tempting, we’ll move on before it’s too late.

Byu over WYOMING BY 10

The Cougars have visions of posting another 10-win season – provided, of
course, that they close out the regular season with four straight wins (they will
be favored to do so). But beware: Steve Young’s Animal of Choice Foundation
is a miserable 0-9 ATS with rest during the regular season when its win
percentage is greater than .666. Wyoming lost 44-0 at BYU last year and is 15-3
ATS at home with revenge off a ATS win, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine.
With the Cowboys riding a five-game ATS winning mount, we’re inclined to
take the points!

NOTRE DAME over Navy by 6

When the season kicked off, Notre Dame appeared to be saddled with
another one of its daunting schedules. But honestly… how do those losses
to Michigan and USC look now after both those teams got absolutely
ripped apart last weekend? The Irish are a shocking 1-14 ATS at home
vs. all military schools and just 2-10 ATS as a favorite when going into
revenge. Navy is 9-0 ATS in the last nine visits to South Bend and 6-1 ATS
as dogs off consecutive home games. Pretty easy, right? Before chanting
“Ship’s Ahoy,” however, check the status of Navy QB Ricky Dobbs before
reaching into your wallet.

SMU over Rice by 14

The .500 Mustangs have proved to be ‘consistently inconsistent’ under HC June
Jones. Just a one-win squad a year ago, SMU is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS as favorites
the last three seasons. Sally is also 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 11
points. Rice, 6-1 SU and ATS the last seven games in the series, is 4-0 SU and ATS
with rest under HC David Bailiff – but this year’s squad has been nothing short
of an absolute disaster. Since one team looks to be improving and the other
disintegrating, you might be inclined to mount up with Jones and his cavalry
here. But the bottom line is this is simply too much pointspread baggage for
these young ponies.

Texas El Paso over TULANE by 4

The defenseless Miners commence a stretch of three consecutive road games
here and need a 3-1 finish to become bowl eligible (the Fisher Price kids will
be favored In each game). The problem with the Miners is nobody with half a
brain should be laying points on the road with a defense that allows 471 YPG.
And for those who possess the other half of the brain in question, remember
that Tulane has been beaten more often this season than Joan Crawford’s
kids. If you somehow ignore reason and involve yourself with this game, don’t
be surprised to get a phone call next week from the rehab clinic.

3* BEST BET

A solid ‘Game of the Week’ candidate finds the Top 10 Tigers heading
into Alabama for a game that could decide the SEC West and earn the
winner a date with Florida in the SEC Championship. LSU brings plenty of
good numbers into this batt;e, starting with its 4-0-2 ATS mark the last six
games as a series visitor and 18-8 ATS record in the SEC as a road dog with
revenge, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four. The Bengals are also
9-2 ATS away off a home game and 9-3 ATS as a conference dog of seven
points or more. In addition, the Striped Cats have allowed a mere 9 PPG in
the last four games and have held six opponents to 13 points or less points
this season. Alabama answers at 0-5 ATS as conference home favorite of
10 points or more and Bama HC Nick Saban is only 3-7 ATS in his college
career when favored by less than 13 points and playing with rest during
the regular season. More important, Alabama’s offense has taken a step
back in recent weeks with an average of 329.5 YPG as opposed to 490.5
YPG in the first four games of the season. Rest doesn’t help the Tide in
this spot, it merely breaks the momentum. And with help from this week’s
AWESOME ANGLE (Page 2), another one bites the dust.
Lsu over ALABAMA by 3

TEXAS over Central Florida by 31

Sad to think what Texas QB Colt McCoy might do to this raw secondary after
having his own defense come to the rescue last week (UT’s defense returned
two interceptions for TDs against Oklahoma State). The Horns are 11-1 ATS
at home off back-to-back road games and 7-3-1 ATS as non conference home
favorites of 28 or more points. They are, however, just 4-9 ATS after Oklahoma
State. Meanwhile, UCF is 7-2 ATS in Game Nine of the season and catches UT
in a potential flat spot. Good Knight; turn out the light when you leave the
room.

Kent St over AKRON by 6

The Flashes are on a roll with three straight wins, including holding each
opponent under 300 yards, and they’ve cashed five straight ATS tickets. The
Zips, however, are in the deep end of a six-game skid (1-5 ATS), having fallen to
pieces since losing starting QB Chris Jacquemain to a season-ending suspension.
Despite the fact that the host in this series is 3-0 ATS (all as a dog), we can only
look one way here.

AIR FORCE over Army by 13

The Falcons’ side-to-side defense hasn’t allowed more than 23 points in a game
all season but will be put to the test against a strong rushing attack. Air Force
is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series games but only 1-6 ATS in its last seven games
vs. a rested opponent. The Cadets counter at 13-3 ATS as dogs of 17 points or
more off a SU and ATS loss, including 7-0 ATS away. Army plays with a week
of rest as opposed to the Falcons, who are playing their 10th straight game.
Surprisingly, the Cadets have held three foes to season-low yardage totals this
season. We’re in the Army, now.

KANSAS ST over Kansas by 3

Don’t reach for the eyeglasses. The Wildcats, who lost two of three games
to start the season (including a puzzling loss to Louisiana Lafayette) are
actually LEADING the Big 12 North! KSU stands 6-1 ATS in the last seven
series games at Manhattan and has been favored in last eight home games
vs. KU (Wildcats won straight-up the last two times they were installed
as a home dog in this series). So why is it that the division cellar dweller
(Kansas) is laying points to the division leader? It’s called perception. With
the Jayhawks on a three-game losing streak and just 1-11 ATS away off
back-to-back SU and ATS losses, we’ll do what comes natural and take the
points.

NEBRASKA over Oklahoma by 1

The Cornhuskers can do some serious reputation restoration here after laying
a gargantuan egg several weeks ago at Iowa State and sending a promising
season spinning in reverse. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in the last five series games and
3-0 ATS as a dog against sub .727 opposition off a win of more than 10 points.
The Cornhuskers are also 5-1 ATS at home in between road games and 4-1
ATS as a home dog of 10 points or more. Oklahoma, with three losses on the
season and going nowhere fast, is 0-4 ATS away in Game Nine. Cornhuskers,
by an ear!

Ohio St over PENN ST by 3

The Jimmies have rebounded with two consecutive wins after fl ushing away
their season at Purdue and look to avenge last year’s only home loss in this spot.
The Buckeyes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS with revenge, including 6-1 SU and 7-0
ATS the last seven under the sweatered professor (5-0 ATS with conference
revenge). Penn State is 0-4 ATS when going into conference revenge and 1-8
ATS as a home favorite vs. 700 or greater opposition off a SU and ATS win. Can
you see where we’re going here? One final thought: the Lions are 1-10 ATS
as favorites versus opponents off a win that allow 12 or less PPG on the season.
You know what to do.

Tcu over SAN DIEGO ST by 20

Another ‘enter at your own risk’ special. That’s because the undefeated Frogs
are 2-7 ATS as road favorites of 14 points or more and could be feeling the
pressure. San Diego State, vastly improved this season under new coach Brady
Hoke, is 4-0 ATS at home in the series and 7-2 ATS in the second of consecutive
home games. Considering the Frogs might already be looking ahead to a major
revenger with Utah, we’ll go to bat with the bowl-seeking Aztecs.

Fresno St over IDAHO by 4

The Bulldogs have won four straight games and are heading up the hill after a
slow start. With remaining dates against Illinois and La Tech, FSU could very well
win out to the close the regular season tab. The problem we face is the ‘Dogs
2-17 ATS mark as a favorite off an ATS loss. The Potato Heads are showing
signs of a team beginning to unpeel as they have allowed four of their last fi ve
opponents season high – or second high – yardage. Still, it’s hard to fade a team
that’s unbeaten on its home field in 2009 and we won’t start here.

UTAH over New Mexico by 24

The Utes will be looking to maneuver around those yellow ‘Wet’ standing
plaques here with their entire season on the line against TCU next week. Utah,
on a five-game win streak since getting punched out in Oregon, is 1-3-1 ATS as
a favorite before facing the Frogs. New Mexico, despite a winless 0-8 mark, is
improving under HC Mike Locksley as the Lobos have allowed an average of
just 367 YPG. They’ve also netted +1 on the turnover margin ratio the last fi ve
games as opposed to 487 YPG and -7 in the first three contests. At 11-1 ATS with
revenge vs. an opponent off back-to-back wins, they could get our attention
in this Utah fl at spot.

ARIZONA over Wash St by 27

The Wildcats have won two straight games, are moving up in the polls and with
another win can secure a second consecutive trip to the bowling alley. However
this is a ‘danger area’ if there ever was one for the ‘Cats. Arizona has monster
balls on-deck with California and Oregon so it would be no surprise if they play
‘down-to-the-competition’ today. The Kitty Kats are 7-18 ATS as home favorites
of three or more points and aren’t overly excited about this Cougar invasion.
Washington State, 5-1 ATS as a dog in the series, has cashed five of the last six
games. Enter the den at your own risk.

CALIFORNIA over Oregon St by 7

The Beavers have scored wins three of the last four times out but need to keep
ringing them up for bowl positioning purposes. Oregon State is 3-0 ATS in the
last three on this field, and tied with California at 3-2 in the Pac 10, the Beavers
need another win in the worst way. California, though, is 9-2 ATS as a home
favorite vs. 666 or greater opposition – including 4-0 ATS in the last four. Tough
call – one we’re not making.

UCLA over Washington by 4

The ‘All-Downhill’ Bowl features a pair of teams that are rapidly fl at-lining and
in need of an immediate transfusion. After a promising 3-0 start, the Cubbies
fell off-kilter and have since taken up residence at the Milton Bradley Clinic.
The Bruins are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 series games, including 5-1 ATS in the last
six. Currently on a five-game SU and ITS losing skid, UCLA needs at least three
wins to repair a clean imagine gone bad. The same can be said for Washington,
who started the season 2-1 before dropping four of its last five contests. The
Huskies have been outgained in seven straight games and are 1-9 ATS in the
last 10 as a road dog. Stay away!!

STANFORD over Oregon by 1

Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh will likely have a new address in a nice upscale
neighborhood in a few months but before he calls the moving van why
not leaving a parting gift? Stanford, currently residing in 3rd place in
the PAC 10, knows a win today puts them position to capture conference
honors should the Ducks get roasted in any of their final three games. The
Cardinal, 3-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games and 9-3 ATS
off a SU conference win of 17 or more points, is 12-5 ATS at home under
Harbaugh – including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 games. Oregon
takes to the road off its mighty upset win at home over USC last week. Our
database warns us that teams who beat USC are 11-22 SU and ATS in their
next game, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS when playing off four wins or
more in a row. Harbaugh leaves a lasting memory.

Texas A&M over COLORADO by 4

A 4-8 record for openers wasn’t what anybody had in mind when new sheriff
Mike Sherman rolled into town. But all is well a year later as the 5-3 Aggies ride
a two-game win streak into this one and could hammer down a bowl invite
with a couple more W’s. However, Tammy is 2-6 ATS in this series and an awful
0-9 ATS off a double-digit win vs. an opponent with revenge. But the Buffs are a
mess around the kitchen table lately and Papa Hawkins might soon be begging
for food. Colorado is also 3-13 ATS as dogs with revenge. No thanks!

MIAMI FLA over Virginia by 10

It’s nice to have an abundance of talented players that can erase an afternoongone-
bad with just a few plays. Ditto UM last week in Winston-Salem, after
practically handing the game over to Wake Forest. Concern today is that
Miami was outgained, 555-356, in a one-point win over Wake Forest last
week and has allowed season-high total yardage in its last two games. The
Hurricanes will be without three defensive starters once again in this spot so
trusting them to lay points will be tough, especially in conference where HC
Randy Shannon is 3-12 ATS, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than six
points. While beginning to slide, Virginia is 3-1 ATS ithe last four in the series
and 5-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Cavs aren’t much but a 5-1-2
ATS mark as double-digit conference road dogs secures our attention. Until
Miami’s defense gets it act together, we’re forced to take it or leave it.

TENNESSEE over Memphis by 20

The Vols host the Tigers in this in-state tilt on the heels of an 18-point win
over South Carolina, a game in which Tennessee was outstatted. As you know,
we’re not keen on prohibitive homecoming favorites, especially those locked
in the middle of a conference sandwich. UT’s 4-12 ATS mark as double-digit
home chalk off a win only makes maters worse. Look for Elvis U to improve
to 7-1 ATS in this series – and 5-0 ATS in Knoxville – in this made-to-order
letdown special.

CLEMSON over Florida St by 13

‘In (Christian) Ponder We Trust’ should be the new motto making the rounds in
Tallahassee after what the Noles’ QB has managed to pull off the last several
weeks. Still, the Seminoles have allowed season-high yardage in two of the last
three games while surrendering a total of 118 points. In addition, FSU is 1-7 ATS as
a dog of four or more points vs. an opponent with revenge. Clemson, at 5-3 this
season with road dates at NC State and South Carolina remaining on the schedule,
could still make a serious push into the bowling alley. The Tigers, whose 14-point
loss to the Seminoles last year snapped a 3-0 SU and ATS series streak, have held six
of eight opponents to season low – or second low – yards this season. Bottom line
here is the avenging Tiger ‘D’ is 157 YPG better than Bobby Bo’s.

TULSA over Houston by 3

Holy Toledo! Tulsa HC Todd Graham might have set the bar a little too
high for himself with 21 wins in two years. But the Golden Hurricane’s
best-case scenario would be to win out and head back to the bowling
alley. Tulsa is 9-0 ATS at home vs. 500 or greater conference opposition
off a win and also 7-3 ATS at home with conference revenge. The Golden
Hurricane could be without the services of QB G. J. Kinne, so check before
playing. Houston is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite or road dog of three points
or more and just 1-6 ATS away vs. conference revenge and 2-6 ATS in games
after Southern Miss. Can’t summon the strength to lay points with a road
team accompanied by a defense allowing 490 YPG to lined opponents this
season, especially against a home dog looking to avenge a 70-30 loss last
year as a road favorite! On Friday, we’ll only be 24 hours from Tulsa.

Usc over ARIZONA ST by 10

Safe bet there wasn’t any rapping or coaches’ flag football games on the
University of Spoiled Children campus this week. The Trojans, who have
mysteriously allowed season-high yardage in each of their last two games,
have now allowed more than 34 points in a game twice under Pete Carroll,
including the 47 laid on them in Eugene last week. To make matters worse, USC
is 1-6 ATS as a conference road favorite of 13 or more points (watch the line).
Arizona State is 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs of seven points or more and
suddenly owns the better defense in this game. With USC currently resting in
the Intensive Care Unit of the burn ward, we’ll back off for now.

5* BEST BET

Suddenly, it’s back to long hours for the Wolves. Michigan, on a two-
game losing skid – including a drubbing at Illinois last week – is 8-0 ATS
as a home favorite of less than 27 points against sub .500 conference
opposition, with every win coming by 12 points or more. Michigan, 48-
42 losers at Purdue a year ago, is also 4-0 SU and ATS with revenge vs.
the Boilermakers, outscoring Purdue 137-17 in these payback affairs. The
Wolves need this one to become bowl eligible, especially with Wisconsin
and Ohio State coming up. Purdue obliges at 0-17 SU the last 17 games in
Ann Arbor, including 0-4 ATS the last four here. The Boilers are also 3-11-1
ATS as dogs off a DD ATS loss, including 0-6 ATS away. The Wolverines
stay after practice and officially sign up for the bowling season in this,
their biggest game of the campaign. May the Forcier be with you.
MICHIGAN over Purdue by 16

Colorado St over UNLV by 3

These Rams aren’t built tough. Colorado State, with plenty of history in this
series (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five, including 6-0 SU here), has been
outgained by over 100 yards in each of its last four games. UNLV is going
nowhere fast and from our database comes the revelation that home teams
are 15-25 ATS after taking on Gary Patterson’s TCU Frogs, including 10-18 ATS
in conference play. That being said, we’ll take a seat on the sidelines.

HAWAII over Utah St by 3

How the mighty have fallen. The Rainbows, 3-1 SU in the series – including a
SU loss as six-point road favorites a year ago – were 40-point home favorites
here vs. Utah State in 2007! Today, they are a home dog. The closest Hawaii has
come to ending their current skid was last week in a respectable 10-point loss to
Nevada (as 30-point dogs). The Aggies, 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as road
favorites, laid 10 points at New Mexico State earlier this year and lost the whole
game. Utah State is 3-33 SU away since 2004. No way can we trust the Aggies
laying points away from Logan. History has spoken

ADDED GAMES

Fla Atlantic over UAB by 3

Losing to defenseless Middle Tennessee is one thing but watching QB Rusty
Smith (non-throwing shoulder) go down is another. The Owls, needing a 4-2
finish to qualify for a bowling ticket, were left to move on their final drive of
the game without Smith. FAU, 10-5 SU in the fi nal five games of the season
the last three years, is still holding on to hope despite a 2-5 record staring
them in the face, and now turn to redshirt Jr. QB Jeff Van Camp. UAB, losers
of six straight ITS, has allowed season-high total yards the last two games. The
Blazers lost to SMU as 11-point favorites the last time they were installed in that
role. With or without Smith, FAU gets the call.

La-Monroe over N TEXAS by 7

The .500 Warhawks, riding a two-game losing skid after winning three straight,
can’t afford stumbling in this spot if they have any intentions of a trip to the
postseason, which at this point looks remote at best. North Texas, 0-10 SU and
1-9 ATS in games off a win, has surrendered season high – or second high –
yardage in five of the last six games. With UNT head coach Todd Dodge likely
on his way out of Denton soon, put your bucks on the Warhawks.

Troy over W KENTUCKY by 21

The Trojans have made it a six-pack of wins after opening the season by getting
tossed around at Bowling Green and Florida. Troy, unbeaten in the SBC, has a 1.5
game conference lead and appears on its way to a third bowl appearance in four
years. Only wet spot could be a revenger with Arkansas on deck. The Hilltoppers
are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as dogs of more than 20 points. So what?

ARKANSAS ST over La-Lafayette by 10

The Red Wolves are two of three sleeping in their own beds this season. Problem
is the wins came against Mississippi Valley State and Florida International.
Arkansas State, 1-3 ATS in the last four series games and 1-5 ITS in the last six
games, has dropped four of five and is not scaring anybody. Louisiana Lafayette,
1-6 ITS in their last seven games, might be a bit over their heads here for a just
a two-win squad off an overtime loss.

MIDDLE TENN ST over Florida Int’l by 10

Perhaps Don Strock has run out of golf tournaments to hawk. Oh well, at the
very least Mario Cristobal’s promise of being bigger and stronger is holding up.
After playing fi ve of seven away from Calle Ocho headquarters, the pu**ycats
finally held up in crunch time to post just their fourth win in 14 tries. Florida
International is 3-1 ATS in the series and is 5-0 ATS off back-to-back ATS losses
under Cristobal. Middle Tennessee is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 13 points
or more and 1-5 ITS in the last six games. Not even the mayor would want to
vote here!

Sunday, November 8

Nevada over SAN JOSE ST by 17

So just how bad is the San Jose State rush defense? Let’s put it this way: if THESE
were the Spartans that had been assigned to halt Xerxes and his Persian hordes
at the Battle of Thermopylae, Hollywood would NOT have been interested in
making a film of their exploits. In fact, we’d be hard-pressed to find a matchup
this weekend with a more pronounced gap between one team’s ability to run
the ball and their opponent’s ability to stop it. Nevada boasts the top ranked
rush unit in the nation at 319 yards per game while SJSU’s run ‘D’ get slashed
for a whopping 243 yards per contest (only Western Kentucky is worse!). Add
the fact that Sparty is 0-6 SU and ITS vs. lined foes this season and we’re all over
Nevada to cash its SEVENTH ticket in the last eight series meetings. Wolf Pack!

JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City by 4

What was Jaguars’ OC Dirk Koetter thinking during last week’s 30-13 loss at
Tennessee, calling star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (173 total yards) number only
nine times (8 carries, 1 catch)? You can bet he won’t make the same mistake
this week as KC’s 25th-ranked rushing defense comes to town but that grindit-
out mentality may be just enough to keep this one inside the number. Our
PLAYBOOK.com database certainly thinks so as it notes the Jaguars are a putrid
0-6 ATS as favorites of 7 or more points off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-1 ATS
this year. By contrast, the Chiefs are a profitable 6-1 ATS as non-division RD’s
off a SU double-digit loss. While Matt Cassel and the KC offense has struggled
against the likes of Baltimore, San Diego and the entire NFC East, they should
find the going a lot easier against a 23rd-ranked Jacksonville defense that has
allowed at least 379 yards of total offense in six of seven contests. Don’t expect
the Jaguars’ home-field advantage to help much as Jack Del Rio’s bunch has
dropped 6 of 10 SU and 8 of 10 ATS in barren Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
The hosts nipped the Rams, 23-20, as substantial favorites in their last home
contest and a late FG may very well decide this one. It’s a take.

Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 3

We’ll know in the next few weeks if the Bengals are serious AFC North contenders
as they host the 4-3 Ravens Sunday before traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the
5-2 Steelers. Chad’s boys have cinco (that’s 5 for those of us who don’t speak
Spanish) wins, as well, and would certainly put themselves in the catbird’s seat
with a couple of series sweeps over these division rivals. This is a tough call as the
Ravens’ defense turned in a dominating performance in their 30-7 dismantling
of Denver and now look to make amends for that last minute, 80-yard drive they
allowed in the 17-14 home loss to the Bengals in early October. But – and there’s
almost always a but – Ray Lewis and company have been installed as division
road favorites and that’s always cause for concern. Both clubs do bring solid ATS
numbers into this rematch as the Black Birds are a Trump-like 10-1 ATS away
versus a division opponent off a double-digit ATS win while Marvin’s Cats roar
to a 9-1 ATS tune, including 5-0 ATS at home, before facing the Steelers. Lewis,
himself, is tough on division foes who arrive off a SU double-digit win, posting
a 6-1 ATS mark. We’ll stay neutral for now…

INDIANAPOLIS over Houston by 6

The Texans aced their pop-quiz when they handled the playoff-pretending
Buffalo Bills, 31-10, last week at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Now it’s on to the
midterm where Peyton Manning and the Super Bowl contending Colts provide
the questions. Gary’s Kubiak’s crew will have to sharpen those #2’s if they want
to pass their biggest road test of the season. The unbeaten Colts, along with
the Saints, have thus far prevented Don Shula’s ’72 group from lighting their
annual cigar and Mercury Morris may soon be on neighborhood watch as Indy
has notched 16 straight regular-season victories. The visitors have garnered
ATS “A’s” in 4 of the last 5 meetings and the cliff notes supplied by our astute
PLAYBOOK.com database tells us that the Texans are an MIT-like 10-2 ATS in
the 2nd of back-to-back road games and 7-1 ATS versus division foes in the
month of November. With Houston continuing to dominate play on the fi eld
(5 straight ‘ITS’ wins) and building momentum with each win (two games over
.500 for the first time in franchise history), we’ll gladly grab the points as they
take another step towards the final exam.

ATLANTA over Washington by 4

Jim Zorn may have hit Bingo as his fully-rested Redskins catch the Falcons
on a short work week and in the middle of a division sandwich after their
Monday night shootout in the bayou. Atlanta left everything on the fi eld
in their 35-27 loss to the Saints and the tank may be a all but empty as the
non-offensive visitors come to town. The Falcons have certainly been empty
as home favorites after allowing 35 or more points, posting a putrid 0-9
ATS mark, and are just 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses versus
conference foes. While Zorn’s offense couldn’t score with the “Octo-Mom”,
his 5th-ranked defense has held their last four opponents to under 300 yards
of total offense. And you know how we feel about TD dogs with the better
defense. While we don’t expect the Falcons to come up short for the third
straight week on the SU scoreboard, we do think that Zorn’s stingy defense
will bite at their ankles all afternoon. If Sherm calls the right numbers, this
one stays close.

3* BEST BET

It appears the Packer’s 38-26 home loss to Minnesota may have put the
NFC North division to bed. But according to our ‘BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW’
article, it’s actually the sleep-walking Bucs who are getting the “Wake
Up Call” for this Week 9 matchup as it notes that home dogs of 6 or
more points with a week of rest awake with a 32-11 ATS bark. The Bucs,
themselves, have been solid coming off a Bye Week, posting a 4-1 ATS log
and are a perfect 7-0 ATS as dogs versus an opponent with revenge off
a SU favorite loss. We do expect the gutty Aaron Rodgers and the Pack
to bounce back from that Minny loss as they now go wildcard hunting.
However, our database tells us that they just can’t be trusted as double-
digit favorites when taking on a foe off a double-digit SU loss as they
carry a 1-8 ATS weight. Green Bay HC Mike McCarthy has also struggled
against the NFC South with a 1-5 SU and ATS career record, including
0-4 SU and ATS last year. With an important battle against Dallas on
deck, we wouldn’t blame the Pack for looking past the winless hosts and
getting a little extra shut-eye as they miss this 1:00 PM wake-up call.
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY by 1

5* BEST BET

If you thought your first wife was tough to comprehend, try fi guring out
the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears. The Cardinals have dropped three
of four SU at home, all as favorites, but are a perfect 3-0 SU on the road
– all as dogs! The Bears, meanwhile, handled the Super Bowl champion
Steelers but get blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals. Thank goodness we
can depend on our unattached PLAYBOOK.com database to sort out this
mess. For starters, it lets us know that non-division dogs off a SU loss as a
favorite of 7 or more points are 63-35-3 ATS – a solid 64% foundation.
It also informs us that the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss
(including 2-0 this year) while the Bears are 1-7 ATS at home in the month
of November off a non-division game versus an opponent off a SU loss.
Lovie’s Bears also haven’t fared well as favorites in the 2nd of back-to-back
homers, posting a Boo-Boo-like 0-4 ATS log. For more ammo, we turn to
our NFL Quarterback League inside our Sports Data Center at PLAYBOOK.
com and we find that Chicago QB Jay Cutler is a pathetic 4-13-1 ATS as a
home favorite in his career as a starter – and that’s including 2 ATS wins
this year against the Lions and Browns! While we may not be able to help
you figure out an ex-wife or communicate with a teenage daughter, we let
our numbers do the talking when it comes to NFL – and our numbers tell
us another road win is in the ‘cards’ for Kurt and company.
Arizona over CHICAGO by 10

NEW ENGLAND over Miami by 7

You know Bill Belichick will have his defense prepared for anything this season
after they were caught off guard in last year’s 38-13 home loss to Miami when
the Fish unveiled the Wildcat. The Dolphins’ offense was anything but cat-like
in last week’s victory over the Jets but Ted Ginn and his family ran wild through
the Jet’s special teams and the 3-4 Dolphins find themselves back in the AFC mix.
That win also bodes well for HC Tony Sparano as he is a perfect 5-0 ATS away off
a SU win. The Pats, meanwhile, enter with a week of rest after a paid vacation in
London in which Tom Brady had more than enough time to sit back and sip tea
while hitting open receivers during their rout of Tampa. In fact, if you include
their 59-0 thrashing of Tennessee, Bill’s crew hasn’t been challenged in a month.
While Belichick is a distinguished 12-1 ATS off a non-division double-digit ATS
win when tackling division foes, his Pats are just 1-6 ATS at home after allowing
10 or less points and their soft rush defense (4.5 YPR) will have trouble slowing
down Miami’s strong running game (4.6 YPR). One other interesting tidbit you
may want to keep in the memory bank: teams returning from London are just
1-3 SU in their next game and that one win was a 20-19 San Diego victory last
season as 14.5-point favorites. Give us the double-digit running dogs.

NEW ORLEANS over Carolina by 6

As catastrophic as the hurricane that blew through New Orleans three years ago
was, it was mild compared to the Brees that’s whipping through the city these
days. Yes, the Saints’ 7-0 start has frenzied fans on Bourbon Street thinking Super
Bowl. While that’s not a stretch, the first chink in the armor occurred Monday
night when N’Awlins lost their first paycheck this season. The spread loss to the
Falcons dropped the Saints to 1-13 ATS as division favorites of seven or more
points. They are also just 1-8 ATS when hosting a division foe off a SU and ATS
win. The Panthers enter revitalized off last week’s stirring win at Arizona and
are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in the Superdome. New Orleans was taken
to the wire against Atlanta. Expect more of the same here today.

SEATTLE over Detroit by 8

The separation of NFL ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ becomes even more apparent this
time of the season as the schedule is shortened because of Bye Week games.
There is no disguising the fact that these two teams have combined for three
wins this campaign, and just seven over the last season-and-a-half. So why is
it the oddsmaker has imposed a double-digit spread in this game? Maybe it’s
Detroit’s 0-3 SU and ATS mark on the road in 2009, by an average spread loss of
10 PPG. Or perhaps it’s the Lions’ 0-6 SU and ATS mark of late against teams
residing in the NFC West. We know it can’t be Seattle’s 1-12-1 ATS log as a
favorite of 10 or less points off a double-digit ATS loss… nor the Seahawks’
0-3 SU and ATS mark against the NFC North since 2008! Like we say, the loop
is filled with a lot of ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ and this is one game we will likely
‘not-have’ an interest in. Neither should you.

4* BEST BET

Now that the Titans have the monkey off their back and Vince Young
back behind center, there is value-a-plenty to be found with the team
that was the top-seed in the AFC playoffs last season. For openers, the
Titans are 16-13 SU and 21-7-1 ATS as dogs in games off a double-digit
spread win under head coach Jeff Fisher, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS
off a SU win when facing a .600 or less opponent. In addition, Fisher is
21-7 ATS as a road dog versus an opponent off a loss, including 7-0 SU
and ATS when his team is off a SU and ATS win – impressive, to say the
least! While we’ve lauded Mike Singletary’s hire, the fact of the matter is
this: he’s 7-1-1 ATS when made the underdog but his troops are just 1-3-1
ATS as favorites of less than seven points. No surprise to see the Niners
drop to 1-6 SU in games against the AFC South Division here today. The
Young and the restless are making their move…
Tennessee over SAN FRANCISCO by 10

NY GIANTS over San Diego by 1

Oh my… how the mighty have fallen. Sitting atop the NFC hierarchy at 5-0 to
open the 2009 season, the Giants will take a three game SU and ATS losing
skein into this contest knowing QB Eli Manning has completed twice as many
passes to the opposition as he has thrown for touchdowns to teammates
during the slide. Our database does not support the gang from the Big Apple:
home favorites riding a 0-3 SU and ATS losing steak, with the last loss as a road
favorite, are just 4-12 ATS in non-division games. Meanwhile, the Bolts are 8-1
ATS off a win in games against the NFC East. You won’t find us bobbing for
apples today.

PHILADELPHIA over Dallas by 6

A tip of the sombrero to the Eagles. They came up big last week without the
services of Brian Westbrook in a setting so good it saw the Giants move from
a 3-point dog to 2.5-point favorites by kickoff. As a result, this game pairs the
NFC East Division leaders with the Cowboys entering 0-6 ATS as dogs off backto-
back SU and ATS wins. Dallas is also 2-10 ATS as a road puppy in November
against an opponent off back-to-back wins. Philly counters at 5-0 ATS off a
division game when engaging an opponent that is off back-to-back wins. Don’t
count on a Giant letdown, either, as the Birds are 11-1 ATS in games after
battling Big Blue. Cheese steaks for everyone!

Monday, November 9

DENVER over Pittsburgh by 3

We felt like traitors last week when we ordered up the Ravens against our
Rocky Mountain money train. The feeling was that the week of rest would
prove to be a momentum breaker for Denver and it was. The same can be said
for the Steelers tonight. A 1-2 start was erased with a four-game win streak,
only to have the Bye Week barge in. It’s bad enough that defending Super
Bowl champions are just 7-18 ATS as road favorites when taking on a .727 or
greater foe. It’s even worse when that same opponent is off a loss (0-4 ATS).
Mike Tomlin chips in with a 1-9 ATS mark on the road off a win when taking
on an opponent of a loss. If that’s not enough, the Steelers are 1-8 ATS against
.700 or greater AFC competition. Denver’s 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS mark against
rested AFC opposition clinches it. Yes, we’re turncoats but at least we admit it.

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE

FRIDAY

Boise State 38 - LA TECH 13 - (8:00 - ESPN2) --Hate bucking Tech at home,
where it has a 72-13 pt edge in LGs. Check 29 FDs & 547 yds at Idaho. But
Broncs just keep on doing it. Moore is now 24/2, & Boise at 44 ppg last 7 RGs.

SATURDAY

MICHIGAN STATE 48 - Western Michigan 14 - (12:00) --Chance for Spartans
to take out frustrations. Stung by the big play at Minny, after allowing 14 ppg
prior 3. Cousins: 714 PYs last 3. WM "D": 30 ppg in LGs, & 38 RYs at Kent.

CINCINNATI 33 - Connecticut 24 - (12:00) --Three 'Cat TDs off busted plays in
win at Syracuse, & off to first 8-0 start since 1951. Haven't lost a fumble all yr,
& Collaros 37-of-45 last 2 wks. Huskies 2-0 ATS on BigEast road (both by 4
pts), but must regroup off losing in final 0:12 on 81-yd pass. Near the spread.

PITTSBURGH 27 - Syracuse 13 - (12:00) --Rested Pitt has NoDame, WestVa,
& Cincy on deck, but is at 34 ppg in LGs, with 449 RYs from Lewis last 4, &
Stull ranked 3rd among passers (67%, 16/4). Two TOs for 'Cuse vs Cincy,
both on 1st-&-goal situations. Holding foes to 88.5 RYpg. Call this under spot.

IOWA 24 - Northwestern 17 - (12:00) --Dog series, & we agree, despite 'Eyes'
13-game winning streak. A 28-0 4th quarter edge for Iowa, including 96 & 66
yd TD passes from Stanzi, who also tossed 5 INTs. 'Cats allowed 21 pts in 4
minute stretch of 4th, in miss vs PennSt, & QB Kafka hurting. But a NW call.

MINNESOTA 37 - Illinois 24 - (12:00) --Couple of shockers LW. UM QB Weber
vs MichSt: 416 PYs & 5 TDs, including "Immaculate Reception" 59-yd winner
in final 6:08. Gophs in off PSt, OSt, MSt, & at 35 ppg as Big10 hosts. Juice &
Co: 377 RYs in 32-pt cover vs Michigan, halting 5-game slide. Fireworks here.

WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Louisville 13 - (12:00) --Mounties just 8-15 ATS of late,
with paltry 127, 147, & 118 RYs last 3 games. Devine LW: 42 RYs (2.5 ypr).
He had field day LY vs Cards, but not the same without White. However, 'Ville
hasn't topped 180 RYs all yr, is down to 3rd string QBing, & lost last RG 41-10.

Maryland 32 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 30 - (12:00) --Rested Terps allowing
32 ppg in last 10 LGs, & haven't topped 158 RYs all season. 'Pack QB Wilson
threw for 349 yds & career-high 5 TDs in late loss to FlaSt, but despite scoring
at a 30.4 ppg clip last 5 outings, are allowing 41.4 ppg over same span. Terps.

GEORGIA TECH 48 - Wake Forest 17 - (12:00) --Sure, Deacons piled up 555
yds vs Miami, behind 349 PYs (3 TDs) from Skinner, but still wrenching loss,
after 17-0 lead. Jackets just keep doing it: 401, 309, 362, 404 RYs last 4 wks
(Dwyer: career-best 186 yds vs Vandy). Have covered last 6 by 75 pts. Tech!

Duke 31 - NORTH CAROLINA 27 - (3:30) --Three straight ACC wins for Imps
(1st since '89), & +54½ pts ATS last 2 ACC RGs. Holding league foes to 112
RYpg, & Lewis at 1,532 PYs last 4. Tars came from blowing 18-pt lead at FlaSt
to upsetting VaTech, allowing just 11 FDs. Undependable. Series dog barks.

Wisconsin 33 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00) --Badgers in off first Big10 shutout win in
a decade, holding Purdue to 141 yds. Have ceded just 15, 8, 16, & 8 FDs last
4 games, & RB Clay is smoking. Indy has 12 takeaways last 3 games, but is
allowing 38.5 ppg 11 of last 12 LGs, & QB Chappell at just 10/10 for the year.

ARKANSAS 34 - South Carolina 24 - (12:20) --Let's see. Hogs LW: 63 pts,
292 RYs, 297 PYs, & only 1 punt (without RB Smith). But just a 26-pt win as
27-pt favs. Mallet now 18/3 & Arkies at 44 ppg last 4 LGs. Just 92.5 RYpg in
SEC for 'Cocks, who went down by 18 at Tennessee, despite 300 Garcia PYs.

Oklahoma State 36 - IOWA STATE 17 - (3:30) --'Pokes in Tex/TxTech revenge
SW, & Robinson off 15-of-28 effort, following 23-of-27 previous wk. Five TOs
did 'em in vs Texas. Cycs nicely balanced, but forced no punts in beating at
A&M, & still no Arnaud. This a chalk series, & OkieSt owns em (Wise Points).

MISSOURI 33 - Baylor 10 - (2:00) --Finally some overland production from the
Tigs, after just 80 RYpg previous, & QB Gabbert healthy. Also check 8 sacks
at Colo. Bears still can't run: 48 RYpg in Big12 play, with only TD vs Nebraska
on a 48-yd INT return. A 111-34 pt deficit last 5 games, & -134½ ATS 14 of 15.

FLORIDA 41 - Vanderbilt 3 - (7:15) --Finally a bit of breathing room for Gators,
in 24-pt win over Georgia, after 3 nailbiters. No reason for it not to continue vs
'Dores, whose rock-ribbed "D" has been taken apart 2 of last 3. And Vandy is
at just 7.8 ppg in SEC play, offensively. Tebow burned VU in '08, & once again.

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

KANSAS STATE over Kansas RATING: 1
GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest RATING: 1
DUKE over North Carolina RATING: 2
PENN STATE over Ohio State RATING: 3
WISCONSIN over Indiana RATING: 4
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Toledo RATING: 4
NORTHWESTERN over Iowa RATING: 5
KENT STATE over Akron RATING: 5

Byu 38 - WYOMING 27 - (2:00) --'Pokes just keep on covering, mostly by the
narrowest of margins (just plus 2 pts ATS 5 of 6 LGs). Have run only on FlaAtl
& NMex. Not saying much. Rested Coogs at 43 ppg 6 of last 7 LGs (TCU),
with Hall throwing for 2,231 yds. Have Wyoming's number, but not interested.

NOTRE DAME 31 - Navy 30 - (2:30 - NBC) --Finally a caker for Irish, after six
straight nailbiters (led WastSt 40-7 in 4th). Clausen at 18/2 (67%) & actually
hit a "Hail Mary" vs Coogs. No 1st half TDs for Mids LW (1st time all season),
allowing 274 RYs. Note four of last five Navy tilts decided by 3, 3, 3, 3 pts SU.

SMU 41 - Rice 17 - (3:00) --Rare chalk role for Ponies (missed by 9 in 1st such
setup), but Pardon a nice 354 PYs in first start, upset of Tulsa (29½ pt cover)
holding 'Cane to 13 FDs. Owls allowing 45.5 ppg TY, & QB Fanuzzi rated #96.

Utep 27 - TULANE 24 - (3:30) --Wave sure isn't much. Averaging just 8.7 ppg
in last 9 LGs, altho Anderson can motor, & Griffin was decent 21-of-29 LW. If
they are to do anything, it will be vs Miners' 117th ranked "D". Greenies well
remember Vittatoe burning them with long bomb LY, but can't back Utep as fav.

ALABAMA 20 - Lsu 13 - (3:30) --This should be an all-out war. Two of the true
elites, defensively, with the Tide off a bye, while the Bengals off a warmup vs
lowly Tulane. The difference here should be Ingram, who has 345 RYs last 2
gms, while LSU was at just 124 RYpg before LW. Nothing left on the field here.

TEXAS 42 - Central Florida 10 - (12:00) --Knights sure have held their own vs
the lesser lights (covered last RG by 32), but can't compete vs this type of foe.
Case in point: 20-pt home loss to Miami. 'Horns in off luckout cover at OkieSt:
just a 2-yd edge, with 2 TDs on INT returns. But 21-1 SU, & #2 "D" in the land.

Kent State 24 - AKRON 10 - (ESPNU) --Six straight covers for Kent, allowing
just 14.5 RYpg last 2 outings, & QB Keith in off 373-yd showing. Opposite for
slipping Zips: 6 straight losses, no Jacquemain, & <22 pts each of last 8 LGs.

AIR FORCE 38 - Army 10 - (3:30 - CBSC) --This series is owned by the host, &
no reason for variance TY, what with Cadets failing to score more than 1 TD in
any of last 5 games, & owning the worst passing "O" in land. 'Force has 24
takeaways TY, ranks 8th in total "D", & note 2 TD passes for QB Jefferson LW.

KANSAS STATE 34 - Kansas 27 - (12:30) --'Cats didn't quite at Okla, after a
quick 21-0 hole (30-21 edge last 3 quarters). Nicely balanced, & check 82-20
pt edge in last 2 HGs. As we've written, Jays just don't have it. Three straight
losses, & a 175-140 pt deficit last 5 (-62 pts ATS). Just 64 RYpg in Big12 TY.

Oklahoma 30 - NEBRASKA 10 - (8:00) --Okies never approached 28½ pt spot
LW, as quick 21-0 lead was down to 5 on a pair of occasions. Jones: 4 TD
passes, but OU #6 "D" stung for 364 yds. Huskers minus 55 pts ATS last 3
outings. Solid "D", but just 12 ppg "O" (16, 15, 11 FDs). Won't dent Okie "D".

PENN STATE 24 - Ohio State 13 - (3:30) --Loved it. Three Lion TDs in 4-minute
span of 4th nailed important ATS win LW. Clark now at 18/7, with Royster 5.9
ypr. And that "D"? Try #3 in the land. Bucks still paying off, but Pryor (13/9)
not to be trusted, & note just 66 RYs in last RG (21½ ATS loss). Host series!

Tcu 40 - SAN DIEGO STATE 10 - (4:00) --It just continues. Frogs have held 19
of last 20 foes under 18 pts (0 pts & 7 FDs LW). And check 390 RYs in 41-0
shutout of Unlv. Now +184½ pts ATS last 24 games. Sure, Utah revenger is
on deck, but Aztecs can't do it with one-dimensional "O" (QB Lindley). Romper!

IDAHO 37 - Fresno State 36 - (10:30) --All the makings of a barnburner. Both
staged comebacks for narrow wins LW, with 2 Vandal TDs in final 6 minutes, &
14-0 2nd half edge for Bulldogs. Another 185 RYs for Mathews (1,316 TY),
while QB Enderle leads Idaho's 32 ppg "O". Outstatted Bulldogs LY. To wire.

The lower the number, the higher the play. Top Rating of 1.
Normally two teams a week are rated 1. All choices are listed
in order of preference. Key Releases are teams rated 4 or
higher. Teams rated 5 are considered "Best of the Rest".
Teams in Capital Letters in score prophecies, are at home.
All times are Eastern, & are subject to late week changes.

UTAH 31 - New Mexico 13 - (6:00) --Utes now 21-1 SU, but only covers TY are
by scant 2 & 4½ pts. Trailed WY at half LW, with frosh QB Wynn sparking 2nd
half rally. But note holding 8 of 9 foes under 18 pts. Lobos now 0-12 SU, but
led SDSt until final 8:00 (83-yd edge). And remember, TCU is up next for Utes.

ARIZONA 51 - Washington State 14 - (3:30) --Another backdoor cover for the
Coogs vs NoDame. Now on 5-1 line run, despite a 39-11 ppg deficit in their last
4 games, a 43-10 ppg deficit away TY. 113th "O", 119th "D", etc. 'Cats rested
& at 35 ppg 17 of last 18 LGs, with 1,054 PYs for Foles last 3 gms. 'Zona call.

Oregon State 38 - CALIFORNIA 31 - (7:00) --Beavs let us down LW, failing to
hold a 19-3 4th quarter lead over Ucla, eventually winning in final 0:44. QB
Canfield: 634 PYs (3/0) last 2 wks, & Jacquizz now at 922 yds. Cal QB Riley:
8 TDs last 3 wks, & 13/2 for year. Check "D"s ranking 81st & 82nd. An upset.

UCLA 23 - Washington 22 - (3:30) --Five straight losses for Bruins (146-84 pt
deficit), tying their worst-ever conference start. Rank just 109th in total "O", &
managing mere 89 RYpg in Pac10 play. Hopeful Huskies off bye, but are being
pummeled by the week (34.2 ppg last 5), & Locker just 75th rated tosser (56%).

STANFORD 44 - Oregon 37 - (3:30) --Wow! Ducks are boiling, behind James
& Masoli. Inflicted worst loss on USC since '97, with 31-FD, 613-TY, 1-punt
47-20 rout. Now +114 pts ATS last 6 tilts. But Card home giant, ceding just 15
ppg as a host, with Gerhart at 994 RYs. Note 53 FDs, 1,057 yds last 2 games.

Texas A&M 33 - COLORADO 20 - (1:30) --Are the Ags settled in now, after that
3-game stretch, in which they allowed 48.3 ppg? Came from a 62-14 loss to a
combined 87-40 edge following 2 wks. Johnson now 20/3, but that "D" ranks
98th. CU: 67 RYpg last 5 tilts, & ranks 107th on "O". But didn't quit vs Mizzou.

MIAMI 31 - Virginia 23 - (7:00) --'Cane "D" was not at its best in trip to Wake,
allowing 33 FDs & 555 yds, but managed 1-pt win (in final 1:08). Check yo-yo
overland game last 4 tilts: 215, 70, 177, 26. And Harris sacked 5 times by WF.
Cavs at moldy 11 FDpg & 197 ypg last 3, but 3-0 ATS away by 8, 26, 14½ pts.

TENNESSEE 41 - Memphis 10 - (7:00) --Vols playing as well as anyone of late.
Are +92 pts ATS last 10 (+50 last 3), rank 10th on "D", & Kiffin in off first win
over ranked foe. Tigs seeking an "O" (100th in scoring), with Steele (455 RYs
last 3) their only weapon. Lost 6 of last 7 LGs by double digits. More of same.

CLEMSON 45 - Florida State 44- (7:30) --Offensively explosive, but defensively
inept 'Noles sure keep things interesting. Check 278 RYs, 277 PYs vs NCSt,
but tite 45-42 win. Ponder: 69%, 13/3. Tigers still can't run (117, 81, 84 RYs
3 of last 4 LGs). Beat Miami on KO & INT returns. Host series: not involved.

Houston 41 - TULSA 34 - (7:30 - CBSC) --'Canes would dearly love to nail their
pound of flesh for 70-30 lambasting LY, but are reeling: 3 straight losses, while
averaging 19.3 ppg. Can't run, & now QB problem. Otherworldly. Coogs' top
ranked "O" piled up 750 yds LW, but not safe until Keenum pass in final 0:21.

So California 30 - ARIZONA STATE 17 - (8:00 - ABC) --Mere 30-pt spread loss
for USC LW, with its formerly 80 RYpg "D" allowing 391 to Oregon (worst loss
in 12 yrs). On unreal 1-6 ATS run, by 77½ pts. Nice Devil comeback vs Cal,
before losing late, & only Stanford ran of 'em, but not dependable. Steer clear.

MICHIGAN 31 - Purdue 30 - (12:00) --Nice "D". Wolves have lost 4 straight
Big10 games, allowing 32.5 ppg in 5 league contests (73-23 deficit last 2 wks).
And check ceding 377 RYs to then 1-6 Illinois. Sweet! Boilers in off their worst
shutout loss since 1991, with QB Elliott just 5-of-23. UM "D" keeps this close.

UNLV 26 - Colorado State 24 - (10:00) --Would you believe that the Rams were
once 3-0, while the Rebs were 2-1? Well, they now both stand at 3-6. Host is
16-4 ATS in CSt games, but Vegas has a 198-64 pt deficit last 4 as pup. Pass.

Utah State 37 - HAWAII 30 - (10:00) --Ags have most deceiving 2-6 log in nation,
with 191 RYpg, 245 PYpg "O", behind Turbin & Borel. Now on 10-1-1 ATS run!
'Bows got services of Moriz back LW: 29-of-49 for 374 yds & 3 TDs. Shootout!

SUNDAY
Nevada 41 - SAN JOSE STATE 27 - (8:15 - ESPN) --Another 500 yds for 'Pack
LW, but just one 2nd half TD, in 18-pt ATS miss. Yet to cover away, but Spartans
on 1-10 ATS run, by 99 pts, & running for only 53 ypg in LGs. Will not compete.

GREEN BAY over Tampa Bay RATING: 2
ARIZONA over Chicago RATING: 3
NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Indianapolis RATING: 4
BALTIMORE over Cincinnati RATING: 5

JACKSONVILLE 23 - Kansas City 20 - (1:00) --Would you believe that the only
TDs that the Jags scored at Tennessee came on 80 & 79 yd runs by Jones-
Drew? A sweet 22.1 ypr for him in that 30-13 setback. A 39:43-20:17 time
deficit, with Garrard 0/2 (now 5/5 for season. Before their bye week, Chiefs
were throttled 37-7 hosting the Chargers, with Cassel's streak of 132 passes
w/o an INT coming to a halt (3 in 2nd half, & sacked 9 times last 2 games). KC
on 1-10 & 3-29 SU runs, but the visitor is 22-11 ATS in Chief contests lately, &
KC is 6-1 ATS on the non-division road off DD SU loss. Jags 2-9 ATS at home.

Baltimore 26 - CINCINNATI 23 - (1:00) --No question that these 2 are in off their
most impressive showings of the season, with Raven "D" finally resembling
recent editions, in that 30-7 smothering of the previously perfect Broncos, holding
Denver to 200 yds (3.4 yds per play). And check Flacco's 20-of-25 showing in
that one. The Bengals went into their bye wk, off a resounding 45-10 rout of
the Bears, thanks mainly to 5 Palmer TD tosses (20-of-24), rolling up 448 yds,
& punting just once. The dog is 6-0 ATS in Cincy contests TY, & the Ravens
are 14-6 ATS as division RDs. And throw in revenge for that earlier 17-14 loss.

INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Houston 27 - (1:00) --Just 1 TD for Colts, in tight win over
the Niners (averaged 33 ppg previous 5 tilts). Manning now 15/4 & off latest
300-PY game, his 6th TY, tying personal high. Wayne: 12 catches for 147
yds. That's 15 straight regular season wins for Indy. The Texans are just 3 pts
from a 5-0 ATS run, allowing only 45, 44, 46, 59, 97 RYs in their last 5 games,
& that should continue, as Indy ranks 27th in rushing. The Colts are 13-29
ATS as division HFs, while the Texans are 7-1 ATS vs division squads in Nov.
And the visitor is 12-4 ATS in last 16 Indy regular season games. A dog call.

ATLANTA 22 - Washington 17 - (1:00) --This is a nice spot for the Redskins, as
they catch the Falcons off a pair of emotional games with the Cowboys &
Saints, the latter transpiring on the previous Monday Night. And Washington
is in off its bye week, which couldn't have come at a better time, as the 'Skins
have yet to top 17 pts, are at 12.4 ppg in their last 15 outings, & need to lick a
few wounds. Sure, they have Denver, Dallas, & Philly up next, but will be fully
focused here. The visitor is 13-4 ATS in Washington games, & the Falcons
are 17-25 ATS as non-division HFs. Also the 'Skins own 5th best "D" in NFL.

Green Bay 33 - TAMPA BAY 13 - (1:00) --Battle of old NFC Central squads in
this one. Bucs had LW off, following their London rout at the hands of the Pats,
& have now dropped 11 straight games on the field. Ranking 28th on "O" &
27th on "D", their winless status is legit. And they're at just 11 ppg in their last
5 outings. The Packers dug too deep a hole vs Minny, with Rodgers suffering
yet another 6 sacks (league worst 31 sacks TY), but he did throw for 3 TDs &
stands at a brilliant 14/2 for the season. Packers are 18-8 ATS away, & 12-2
ATS vs opponent off a bye. Bucs won 30-21 here LY, but call Pack bounceback.

Arizona 24 - CHICAGO 17 - (1:00) --Battle of old vs young gunslingers here, &
quick, what do Warner & Cutler have in common? Right, they both have
thrown 11 TD passes, along with 11 INTs. Kurt in off suffering a humiliating 6
TOs, including tying his career-high with 5 INTs, in that 34-21 loss to Carolina
(23 pt ATS setback). And check being stung for 270 RYs, after entering with
the NFL's stingiest rushing "D". That one extended dog edge in 'Zona games
to 10-1 ATS, with the only miss by 1½ pts. Bears, by the way, finally got their
run "O" in gear, with 170 RYs vs the hapless Browns. Wrong team is favored..

NEW ENGLAND 38 - Miami 13 - (1:00) --This is where the Dolphins unleashed
the "wildcat" LY, with 216 RYs the result in a shocking 38-13 upset of the Pats
(37½ pt ATS win). Well, NewEngland paid 'em back with a 48-28 pasting at
Miami in their '08 rematch, & you can bet that Belichick & Co will be ready
again. Check Fish with only 10 FDS & 104 yds in their win over the Jets, with
TDs on 100-yd & 101-yd KO returns from Ginn, as well as a 48-yd INT return.
Unless that magic continues, look for pure disaster vs rested Pats, as Brady is
now 15/4. Pats have a 94-7 pt edge last 2 games, covering last HG by 49½.

NEW ORLEANS 40 - Carolina 23 - (4:05) --As of this writing, the Saints are still
perfect, & on a 12-0-1 ATS run, as well as a 9-1 ATS run at home. So, we just
can't buck 'em. However, the Panthers are definitely showing signs of an
awakening, despite Delhomme's TO tendencies (18 INTs last 8 games). Check
DeAngelo with 158 RYs, as part of overall 270 RYs posted in that upset of the
Cards. Thus, two straight road covers by Carolina (16½ & 23 pts). However,
the chalk is on a 14-7 ATS run in the Panther's last 21 outings. Saints are only
3-12 ATS as division HFs, & have allowed >26 pts 13 times since '08. Pass.

SEATTLE 38 - Detroit 20 - (4:05) --Let's see. The Seahawks got Hasselbeck
back, & they responded with a 41-0 rout of the Jags (40-pt cover), so things
were right with the world. Not so fast, as they followed that with a pair of
stinkers, being outscored 75-20 by the Cards & Cowboys (27 & 11½ pt ATS
losses). And they are in a Dallas/Arizona SW here. But hardly disaster, as the
Lions are still among the dregs, managing but a single TD over their past 2
games, & in off losing to the 0-17 Rams, at home, no less. Detroit 2-13 ATS
away vs non-division foe off 2 losses, & Seattle nice 11-2 ATS off pair of losses.

SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Tennessee 20 - (4:15) --Hooray! First win for Titans, in
30-13 rout of Jags. Started Young at QB for 1st time since opening week of '08
season, & he was a highly competent 15-of-18 (1/0), & check Johnson with
club record 228 RYs (9.5 ypr). Entered that at just 9 ppg in 7 of previous 8
outings. But before jumping on any Titan bandwagon, remember, they lost
their last 2 RGs by a combined 96-17 score. Niners, as predicted, stayed with
the Colts, allowing only 1 TD. Smith solid 19-of-32 in 1st start, & Gore 91 RYs

(7.0 ypr). Niners lost last HG by 37½ ATS, but 8-0 ATS vs <.334 foe off win.
NEW YORK GIANTS 24 - San Diego 23 - (4:15) --Is this current Giant funk a
definite omen, or is it just a blip? Well, they're now on 3-game skid, both SU &
ATS (unheard of 18, 14, & 24 pt spread setbacks). And that includes a couple
of roadsters, where they were seemingly invincible just a short month ago.
Defensively, they ceded only 71 pts in their first 5 games (14.2 ppg), but have
been nailed for 112 pts in their last 3 (37.3 ppg). And check allowing 8 yds per
play at Philadelphia. Eli: an INT in each of those losses, & Jacobs: now 11
straight tilts without a 100-RY effort. Chargers just got by Oakland, despite a
346-180 yd edge, & are 23-10 ATS visiting the NFC. The points look good hr.

PHILADELPHIA 33 - Dallas 27 - (8:20 - NBC) --As usual, these 2 sit atop, or
near the top of the NFC East. As we noted a week ago, the 'Boys are just a
couple of plays from standing at a perfect 7-0 SU. They own the 2nd best "O"
in NFL, which is symbolized best by the fact that 5 different players scored in
LW's rout of the Giants, behind Romo's leadership. He has thrown for at least
2 TDs in each of the last 3 games, & he has reached 250 PYs 6-of-7 games
TY. But check the Eagles scoring 27, 31, 48, 30, 44, 22, 34, 33, & 40 pts in its
last 9 HGs. And note McNabb connecting on 17-of-23 for 240 yds (3/0) in that
win over NY. Also Dallas lost 44-6 here in LY's "Win-&-In" game. A barnburner.
MONDAY

DENVER 23 - Pittsburgh 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) --Broncos 2nd Monday Nighter, as
someone at ESPN must have been blessed with foresight. A bit of an edge to the
champion Steelers, as they are in off a bye, while Denver was being clipped of its
wings a bit at Baltimore. In that setback, the Broncos entered Raven territory just
3 times, & the red zone only once. Orton a decent 23-of-37, & no picks, but for
only 152 yds. Steelers 2-6 ATS lately, with their only covers by 3½ & 4 pts, but
this is their 1st dog setup since last Dec 14. Broncs took Pitt on a Sunday Night
in '07, 31-28, but their QB was Jay Cutler, & their head coach was Mike Shanahan.
We don't get anywhere near this one, but can't buck Broncs, until they lose here.

Sports Memo

TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Houston +9

Houston (+9) 27 at Indianapolis 33 - 2008 O/U 47.5 10 am PT
The Houston Texans have been on quite a roll. Last season, they closed on a 5-1 run to
finish the campaign .500 after a disastrous 3-7 beginning. Now at 5-3, this team is a legitimate
playoff contender. But before they get to the promise land, there are some issues.
Steve Slaton was benched last week as he continued to have difficulty holding on to the
football. Tight end Owen Daniels went down with an injury and was lost for the season.
His contributions as a safety valve and big play component cannot be overstated. Still
quarterback Matt Schaub has continued to get better and has plenty of offensive weapons
remaining. Defensively, since the second half of the Arizona game, this unit has gotten
more pressure on the opposing quarterback and has held the opposition to fewer
than 14 ppg over the past 3.5 games. Overall, they are capable of matching Indianapolis
on both sides of the ball. The Colts have steamrolled through their season but currently
have one win over a team with a better than .500 record. They are good, but like many
others, likely overrated based on the perception of the disparity in the league. Houston
is not ten points weaker and we have no problem backing this improved team.

BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Washington +4

UCLA (-6.5) 27 at Washington 7 - 2008 O/U 12:30 pm PT
I have taken the Huskies on several occasions this year as underdogs and this looks
like another good spot for them. I have them as the better team in this matchup and
they are also coming off a bye week, which should ensure that they are in better
health. Washington is certainly a better offensive team led by quarterback Jake Locker.
According to our ACCU-Stats, they own advantages in both rushing (4.60-4.36)
and passing (6.19-5.32). Defensively, Washington has definitely struggled this year,
but they had gotten better until meeting the Oregon buzz saw in their last game. On
the other hand, UCLA started out strong defensively, but has gotten progressively
worse over the course of the season. The Bruins allowed 1,413 yards in their last three
games, and have given up 920 yards on the ground in their last four games. In their
first four games of the year they gave up just 485 yards rushing and 1,132 yards overall.
Throw in the fact that the offense has struggled all year with injuries and poor
quarterback play and it is easy to see why UCLA is on a five-game losing streak after
opening with three wins. I look for Washington to continue the Bruins’ slide this week.

TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Arizona +3

Chicago 24 at Arizona 9 (+12.5) 23 - 2008 O/U 44.5 10 am PT
There’s still a general perception that Arizona can’t win on the road, based largely on its
struggles last year playing on the East Coast. Arizona lost games against the Redskins,
Jets, Panthers and Patriots by a combined 72 points last year. They also suffered an ugly
48-20 National TV blowout in Philadelphia on a short week (Thursday Night game) in a
flat spot (needing only one win to clinch the division), on a cold, late November night.
The reality is that since those ugly losses in 2008, Arizona has been wining games and
covering pointspreads with regularity on the highway. Who can forget their annihilation
of the Panthers in Carolina last year in the playoffs, the same team that just beat them by
double digits at home this past weekend? They played pretty well in another East Coast
game, at Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, leading Pittsburgh with less than a minute to play
while covering the spread with ease. This year, we’ve already seen the Cards go 3-0 SU and
ATS away from home, winning those games by a combined score of 79-34 even though
they were underdogs all three times. Facing a Bears team that has struggled against all
but the weakest of opposition this year, look for the Cardinals to bounce back strong.

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Cincinnati +3

Cincinnati (+9) 17 at Baltimore 14 - Week 5 O/U 43 10 am PT
I still remain skeptical about this Baltimore Ravens team. The national media and pundits
have continued to regard the defense as one of the elite units in the NFL but the
fact remains, they are old and not nearly as dominant. But despite its lack of dominance
on the defensive end, as a team, if not for a dropped pass on a fourth down conversion
against New England, an unbelievable fourth down conversion in the Cincinnati game
and a missed field goal in the Vikings game, the Ravens could be unbeaten. Yet while we
can discount those plays, there have been several that have put the Ravens in position
to win despite being outplayed. In our opinion, Baltimore is good but overrated. This
week they face a rival brimming with confidence and a 3-0 divisional record. While not
as flashy, the Bengals bend-but-don’t-break defense is just as good as Baltimore’s. On offense
Joe Flacco has proved himself to be a tremendous talent and can match or exceed
Carson Palmer’s numbers across the board. However that advantage at quarterback is
negligible and with the Bengals better at the skill positions, there is simply not much difference
in overall talent between these two teams. This all lines up for the divisional dog.

ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Cincinnati +3

Cincinnati (+9) 17 at Baltimore 14 - Week 5 O/U 43 10 am PT
Division rivals clash on Sunday as the Ravens travel to Cincinnati in attempts to
avenge an week five home loss. The Bengals won the earlier meeting 17-14 but
really controlled the game as they produced 400 yards, while the Ravens found
it tough sledding to get to 250. Their ball control ability showed strong as well
with a 22-12 first down edge. The Bengals own a sweet matchup advantage in
their personnel grouping to spread the Ravens’ defense out with three- and
four-receiver sets. Among other things this helps take advantage of Baltimore’s
weakness in the secondary. In addition, with the emergence of Cedric Benson,
the Bengals can keep the Ravens off-balance with the league’s ninth-best
rushing offense (127.7 ypg). Situationally, with Baltimore coming off an emotional
home win or previously undefeated Denver and taking to the road for a
division rivalry against a team off a bye week, it sets up extremely well for the
home side. Overall, I see little difference between either team which gives us
optimized value with the home side catching a full field goal. Take Cincinnati.

ROB VENO
Best Bet: Kent State -3

Akron 30 at Kent State (+3.5) 27 OT - 2008 O/U 12:30 pm PT
A brutal succession of key injuries over the past month has left the Zips totally depleted
offensively. The lack of formidable point scoring personnel has clearly identified Akron
as a team to fade for the remainder of the season. They’ve been absolutely helpless on
offense the past two weeks averaging just 213 total yards and 12 points per game. The
defense has worn down as well, evidenced by the 28-0 fourth quarter scoring in favor
of Akron’s opponents. True freshman quarterback Patrick Nicely has been thrown into
the fire with zero offensive weapons and the ineptitude of this group has not shown
up any clearer than in their third down conversion rate which is 1-of-21 (4.8%). That figures
to be troublesome against Kent State’s stingy defense which has given up just 31
points in their last three games. Here, Akron will face a suddenly hot quarterback in Kent
freshman Spencer Keith. Against tough MAC opponents Ohio and Western Michigan the
last two weeks, Keith has completed 65.3% of his passes for 646 yards. The suddenly diverse
attack may go run-first against Akron, which has been steamrolled for 509 rushing
yards the last two weeks. Signals point quite obviously to the small road chalk in this one.

FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Arkansas -5

Arkansas 21 at South Carolina (-12.5) 34 - 2008 O/U 9:20 am PT
South Carolina is perceived as a pretty strong defensive team, but some disturbing
numbers are appearing as the season wears on against the Gamecocks. USC’s run defense
the last four games has allowed 205, 264 (6.9 ypr), 141 and 199 yards rushing.
Adding to their struggles in an offense that has put up 13, 14 and 6 points the last three
weeks. Steve Spurrier’s team is wearing down and now they go on the road for a second
straight week and play their first game on artificial turf against the SEC’s top dog
in yards per play (6.8) and No. 2 total and scoring offense. Arkansas has scored at least
40 points in all four home games and was slowed by only best in the league. The Razorbacks’
defense is the SEC’s worst statistically, but go through their conference schedule
and you’ll see they have faced the league’s top-tier offenses in Florida, Auburn, Alabama
and Ole Miss. Quarterback Ryan Mallett guides the SEC’s top passing attack with nearly
270 ypg, over 9.0 ypp attempt and an 18-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. South Carolina has the
fewest INTs in the SEC and has allowed the most sacks. Arkansas should go “hog wild”
on the ground and through the air in a game they need to have a shot at a bowl berth.

MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Over 43

Cincinnati (+9) 17 at Baltimore 14 - Week 5 O/U 43 10 am PT
Expect to see plenty of points here despite a relatively low scoring series history. Baltimore
is no longer a defensive dominator without Rex Ryan dialing up the schemes, without guys
like Bart Scott and Chris McAlister and they might be without Haloti Ngata this week after he
tweaked his knee. Baltimore has not traveled well this season allowing over 400 yards and
28 ppg on the highway but they haven’t just struggled on the road. This unit has allowed 23
pass plays over 20 yards one of the bottom ten in the league. Their mediocre 16 sacks ranks
17th in the league. They have allowed more 100 yard rushers this season than all of last year.
Cincinnati should have some success here as Carson Palmer finally looks in tune after a couple
of years rehabbing his knee and lacking consistent field time. Ochocinco, Caldwell, Henry
provide three great options in the passing game and the ground attack with Cedric Benson
has provided great balance and play action opportunities. The Ravens will do their part offensively
as they continue to light up the scoreboard, ranking fourth in the league at 28.5 ppg.
Joe Flacco has 24 pass plays over 20 yards this season (9th in the NFL) and Ray Rice has turned
into one of the most dynamic dual threat options as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.

HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Boise State -20.5 (Friday)

Louisiana Tech 3 at Boise State (-24) 38 - 2008 O/U 4 pm PT (ESPN)
The Broncos have had no problems winning and covering games when on the road.
Over the last two seasons, they are a perfect 10-0 on the road covering the spread in nine
of those games. The Bulldogs have had success this season particularly at home where
they are 3-0, comfortably winning all three games, but I just cannot see Tech’s offense
having much success against the Broncos’ highly rated defense. Tech’s schedule the last
five games has been against some of the worst defenses in the league so not surprising
they were able to put some points on the board. Early in the season when the Bulldogs
played good but not great defenses in Auburn and Navy they gained 245 and 167 total
yards respectively. The Bulldogs also come into this game banged up with their top
two playmakers, Phillip Livas and Daniel Porter, both injured in the last game against
Idaho. The Bulldogs have had issues stopping the run this season as Auburn, Navy and
Nevada put up and average of 312 ypg on the ground. Boise has been averaging close
to 200 ypg and should have no issues in this spot. With winning by margin also on
the mind’s of the Broncos, we’ll back them as they cruise to yet another easy victory.

ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Florida State +8.5

Clemson 27 at Florida State. (-3.5) 41 - 2008 O/U 4:45 pm PT (ESPN)
Worthy or not, Florida State has been favored in all but two games this season and both times
they closed as an underdog, they won outright, on the road. So why all of a sudden are they
getting more than a touchdown against a team that a month ago was 2-3 and coming off a
loss to now 2-6 Maryland? Going back as far as 1988, Clemson has never been favored over
Florida State! A bye week can do wonders to break a losing streak or get a team healthy as
Clemson has now reeled off three straight since its bye, but Florida State looks to be cashing
in on that same scenario with wins over NC State and North Carolina. Now if you’ve watched
Florida State play this year, you’ll notice the offense is one of the nation’s best while the defense
is absolutely horrific. With CJ Spiller involved, Clemson is going to score points. But while FSU has
been torched via the pass, I’m not so sure Kyle Parker is capable of picking this team apart. He’s
completed over 60% in just one game this season (52.4% for the year) and had a two INT, 1 TD
performance last week against Coastal Carolina. With first place on the line, we doubt Clemson is
going to put the game in the hands of a mistake-prone freshman. The historical trends all point
towards Clemson (home team 10-1 ATS in the series) but I like my chances with FSU’s offense.