Newsletters Nov 4 - Nov 8

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

MIAMI

We might as well continue to back Miami on the road if the Dolphins continue to perform so well as a visitor. And they’re back in their preferred away role this week at Baltimore after another win and cover last week at Cincinnati, their fourth straight in 2010. Miami is now a sizzling 15-4 vs. the line its last 19 away for HC Tony Sparano.

UCF

Somewhat quietly, UCF has emerged as one of the nation’s most-feared pointspread performers, and looks to continue its recent run of dominance Friday night at Houston. Note that the Golden Knights have won and covered their last 6 this season, and are now a sparkling 16-4 vs. the line since a year ago. Moreover, they’ve covered 10 straight as a visitor. As always, UCF is a featured Coach & Pointspread recommendation with HC George O’Leary.

NORTHWESTERN

One of the nation’s most consistent (and successful) road underdogs has been Northwestern, which takes its act to Happy Valley for a Saturday Big Ten battle vs. Penn State. The Wildcats have covered an eye-opening nine in a row as a dog away from home, qualifying NU as featured plays in both the Power Underdog and College Coach as Underdog (with HC Pat Fitzgerald) systems. Note that the Nittany Lions are just 4-9 vs. the line their last 13 at Beaver Stadium.

ARIZONA

Recent wild and woolly finishes between Arizona and Stanford suggests taking substantial points with the capable underdog Wildcats when these two get together Saturday on The Farm. Arizona has been a formidable underdog play almost since HC Mike Stoops arrived in Tucson, and since 2005 (Stoops’ second year) the Cats are 19-12 when getting points. That qualifies them as a featured Power Underdog recommendation this week. Note Stanford has covered only 1 of 4 at home with increased pointspread hurdles this season.

LA TECH

One of the best-kept pointspread secrets has been La Tech and its recent success as a WAC host, its role again on Saturday when hosting Fresno State. La Tech has covered its last 7 and 9 of its last 10 as a WAC host, and is also 14-4 vs. the line its last 18 at Joe Aillet Stadium. Moreover, La Tech has covered its last 6 and is unbeaten its last 7 on the board vs. Fresno.

TENNESSEE

We’ve got to admit that the motivation for this pick comes not because of any particularly compelling go-with arguments for visiting Tennessee, but because of numerous go-against arguments involving host Memphis. Consider that the Tigers have failed to cover their last 4 this year and continue as one of the nation’s worst “AFS” (Away From Spread) teams, as their -16.00 mark over their last two games would attest. Moreover, Memphis is now 4-16 vs. the number its last 20 games on the board. The Vols have yet to be road chalk this season, but they are 8-3 vs. the number their last 11 in that role.

CKO

11* OHIO U. over Buffalo

Ohio, which lost the MAC title game LY to Central Michigan, is eager to get back to the championship game and capture the big prize. To do so, the Bobcats are likely going to have to win their final three regular-season games. Plus, they get a chance for a rare TV appearance (ESPNU). So don’t look for any OU mercy toward rebuilding Buffalo, with its new HC (Jeff Quinn), true frosh QB (Alex Zordich), suffering ground game (only 63 & 55 yards last two game), and undersized defense. Sr. QB Boo Jackson has the Bobcat offense percolating (38 ppg last 5 games). And Frank Solich’s well-coached defense has helped Ohio out-sack its opponents 19 to 9. Bobcats 8-3 their last 11 as a MAC favorite.

10* ILLINOIS over Michigan

Illinois has been convincing in its resurgence this season. Addition of o.c. Vic Petrino has helped the Illini maintain their scoring output of last season while new d.c. Vic Koenning has organized the defense and shaved 10 ppg off their allowance. RS frosh QB Scheelhaase is coming off a 313-yard total offense output, his best of the season. Scheelhaase threw 4 TD passes to 4 different receivers against Purdue, and expect his passing output to continue to grow facing Michigan’s soft secondary (106th in total defense, 117th vs. the pass). Wolverines are 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 Big Ten games (0-4 in 2010), and QB Denard Robinson’s 4 ints. in last 3 games after throwing just 1 in first 5 have contributed to 3-game losing streak.

10* NAVY over East Carolina

Granted, potent ECU can be dangerous in the sort of back-and-forth shootouts in which the Pirates have often found themselves this season. But the one constant in ECU’s play has been subpar work by its defense, which ranks low in all relevant stat categories (92nd vs. the rush, 105th overall, and an especially-alarming 111th in scoring at a whopping 37 ppg). Few attacks seem as well-equipped to keep QB Dominique Davis and the quick-strike Pirate “O” on the sidelines as Navy’s punishing option, which consistently wins the time of possession battle (ranks 13th nationally at 32:21 pg) and looms as an awkward change-of-pace for Ruffin Mcneill’s ECU “D.” Expect an ultra-focused effort from Mids after being uncharacteristically flat last week vs. Duke in the wake of their rousing win over Notre Dame. And as always must respect Navy’s history of spread success away from Annapolis (42-22 since 2002!).

10* OREGON STATE over UCLA

Oregon State clearly looks like it’s ready for another strong surge down the stretch following its most complete game of year in 35-7 home smashing vs. Cal (led 28-0 at H; held Bears to 206 yds.). Beavers, who’re 10-1 vs. spread in reg.-season games after Nov. 3 over last 3 campaigns, should add to that eye-popping mark vs. beatable 3-5 UCLA, soundly outgained 583-299 in deceiving 29-21 home loss vs. Arizona last week. With swift soph WR Wheaton (74 YR vs. Bears; replaced injured star James Rodgers) effectively running Riley’s trademark fly sweep, the diversifed OSU attack will befuddle a green, non-progressing Bruin defense (31 ppg) allowing 1,165 yds. over last two games. Expect inspired effort from Beavers’ star-in-the-making, soph QB Ryan Katz (59%, 11 TDs, 4 ints.; from Santa Monica), who easily outduels Bruins’ back-up QB Brehaut lacking the former’s decision-making skills and pocket presence. And don’t be fearful of laying nearly a TD, since Neuheisel’s bunch has lost by 7 points-or-more in its last 15 defeats!

10 *CLEVELAND over New England

Regardless of the QB choice for Cleveland, there seem to be plenty of edges that lie with Cleveland. Teams coached by Eric Mangini—the former Bill Belichick assistant—have usually played the Patriots extra tough. This year’s Browns’ defense, sparked by rookie FS T.J. Ward and LBs Scott Fujita & David Bowens, has given up only 19 ppg at home. And RB Peyton Hillis (460 YR) has virtually come out of nowhere to give the Browns the ball-control ground game they have been seeking. The rebuilding New England defense has been susceptible to the pass TY (70% completions). Cleveland is now 8-2-1 its last 11 games as an underdog. And 2010 has also been a good year for home dogs (58%).

NINE-RATED GAMES:ARMY (+7) vs. Air Force—Can emerging Army finally stay within reach of tormentor Air Force, which is missing top FB Tew?...NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+3) at Clemson—Wolfpack (6-2 vs. spread) own key QB edge in Russell Wilson...SYRACUSE (-5½) vs. Louisville—HC Marrone has the Orange back on track; Louisville keeps losing key components...TEXAS A&M (+3½) vs. Oklahoma—Jr. QB Tannehill (7 TDP in just 1½ games) has restored confidence to the versatile Aggie offense; can the A&M defense handle OU’s firepower?...SAN DIEGO (+1½; est.) at Houston (NFL)—Chargers finally seem to be getting it together and need every win; Texan defense makes them vulnerable.

TOTALS: OVER (42½) in the N.Y. Jets-Detroit Game—Forget last week’s windy Jets-Packers contest in New Jersey; N.Y. still an “over” team (5-2 TY), and weather expected to be perfect Sunday at Ford Field (domed stadium)...UNDER (43½) in the New England-Cleveland Game—Coaches know each other well; no Moss for the Pats equals fewer big plays.

NELLY

RATING 5 NY JETS (-4) over Detroit
RATING 4 CLEVELAND (+5½) over New England
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+2½) over Chicago
RATING 2 MINNESOTA (-8) over Arizona
RATING 1 KANSAS CITY (+3) over Oakland

RATING 5 UTAH STATE (-17½) over New Mexico State
RATING 4 OKLAHOMA STATE (-7½) over Baylor
RATING 3 NAVY (+3) over East Carolina
RATING 2 LOUISIANA TECH (+1½) over Fresno State
RATING 2 RICE (+18) over Tulsa
RATING 1 TROY (-11½) over North Texas
RATING 1 TEMPLE (-3½) over Kent State

POINTWISE

MINNESOTA over Arizona RATING: 2
DALLAS over Green Bay RATING: 3
CAROLINA over New Orleans RATING: 4
NEW YORK JETS over Detroit RATING: 5
SEATTLE over New York Giants RATING: 5

LOUISIANA TECH over Fresno State RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Baylor RATING: 1
UAB over Marshall RATING: 2
TCU over Utah RATING: 3
NORTH CAROLINA ST over Clemson RATING: 4
ILLINOIS over Michigan RATING: 4
TENNESSEE over Memphis RATING: 5
OREGON over Washington RATING: 5

POWER SWEEP

4* San Diego over HOUSTON - The Chargers are 3-0 SU and ATS vs the Texans with a 29‑11 avg score. SD is 0-4 SU and ATS away TY with the #3 and #3 road units with a 425-262 yd edge but are -8 TO’s. HOU is off LW’s huge MNF game vs IND and have the #19 and #31 units at home being outgained 420-328 (-3 TO’s). HOU’s #32 pass defense is worse than its ranking as they’ve allowed a 14-4 ratio with an 8.2 ypa with 4 opposing QB’s earning 105+ QBR’s. SD’s #2 pass defense has only given up 56% with an 8-7 ratio and a very impressive 6.3 ypa. Rivers has been phenomenal TY with 331 ypg (65%) 15-7 ratio with 4 games of 106+ QBR’s despite a slew of injuries to his WR’s. LW SD was in a solid situation at home under pressure getting TEN on the road with Young back from injury off a big win vs PHI. SD held RB Johnson to 59 yds (3.9) and only gave up 24 yds to TEN on its 1st 3 drives in the 2H dominating the TOP in the game by 15:34. Both teams have their flaws but we’ll side with the better defense vs a HOU team that is 3-8-1 ATS at home and 1-5-1 ATS as a fav. FORECAST: San Diego 34 HOUSTON 24

3* MINNESOTA over Arizona - In 2008 MIN caught ARZ celebrating their 1st Div Title in 61 years with a 35-14 win as a 3 pt AD. LY ARZ returned the favor with a 30-17 win on SNF as a 3 pt HD. The Cardinals defense dominated with a 398-231 yd edge before giving up a garbage time TD drive. ARZ held Peterson to 19 yds (1.5) on the ground and sacked Favre 3 times with 2 ints. Nine of the ARZ’s 22 starters from that game are gone and Hall may once again make another road start in a loud venue. He only lasted thru the 1st drive of the 2Q vs SEA (concussion) generating 36 yds (25%) with an int. LW Hall lasted 1.5Q’s before being pulled (71 yds 50% 1-2) and while Anderson had yds he was int’d twice in the 4Q. After barely beating STL with a rookie QB and 2 rookie OT’s in the season opener the Cardinals have dropped 3 straight on the road being outgained 388-206 (-8 TO’s) and outscored 35-9. ARZ’s #29 rush defense has been dismantled TY allowing 143 ypg (4.4) and Peterson has avg’d 110 ypg (4.7). LW with a hobbled Favre MIN outgained NE 410-362 and while he basically only had 1 drive where NE blitzed heavily Jackson didn’t seem out of sort. Despite their record the Vikings are still in the race for the NFC North (CHI OL, GB’s injuries, DET’s lack of depth) and this is an excellent opportunity to get right here with the defense leading the way. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 37 Arizona 16

2* NY Jets over DETROIT - The top 2 QB’s in the 2009 draft square off here. Sanchez (13-8 SU and ATS has had the luxury of growing into the position on a good team. Stafford (2-9 SU 3-8 ATS) hasn’t had the same success due to lesser talent and bad luck with injuries. Stafford made his 1st full start since 11/26 of LY vs WAS. DET gave him a lot of short, high % throws to work himself back up to playing speed and he had 212 yds (58%) with a 4-1 ratio (4.7 ypa). DET’s front 4 dominated the Redskins OL holding the RB’s to 35 yds rushing (2.3) with 6 of 7 sacks by the DL. Despite being in a solid situation vs a depleted GB defense the Jets offense was very lethargic after the bye. While they tallied a 360-237 yd edge they turned the ball over 3 times in GB territory and missed a 37 yd FG. The defense was stout as it held Rodgers to his lowest output in 31 games with 170 yds (44%) but were unable to force any takeaways. With Sanchez coming down to earth the L2 games (227 yds 49% 1-4) we expect the Jets to take a more conservative approach offensively and target DET’s depleted LB unit. The Jets have a much deeper and more talented defense than DET’s #21 unit and we’ll side with the embarrassed road team vs an admittedly improved home team as we get improved line value here. FORECAST: NY Jets 24 DETROIT 13

2* Miami (+) over BALTIMORE - This is their 6th meeting since realignment and the dog has covered 4 straight reg season games. BAL is 7-1 ATS after a bye and home teams off a bye that were taken to OT before the break are 11-3 ATS. These teams are evenly matched statistically over the L4W with the Ravens having the #10 and #19 units vs MIA’s #12 and #9 units but BAL is +4 TO’s vs MIA’s -4 TO’s. BAL’s #29 pass defense the L4W is a legit ranking as while BUF earned 374 yds, BAL had given up 314 and 292 to DEN and NE the previous 2 games with 61% comp and a 3-2 ratio. The Ravens are giving up a 104.8 QBR at home vs 74 QBR on the road TY. MIA’s defense rebounded from a tough home loss vs PIT LW. After giving up a 86/15pl drive the Dolphins forced CIN to punt on 9 of their next 10 drives (six 3 & outs). The other drive resulted in a TD which was setup when Henne was int’d on the MIA 37. DEN on its 2nd straight East Coast road trip is the only team BAL has beaten by more than a TD TY. Dogs are 5-2 ATS in Ravens games with the road team being 7-0 ATS in MIA’s TY. While BAL will be focused after giving up 500 yds to BUF we’ll take the Dog who has been overshadowed by its AFC East rivals this year. FORECAST: Miami 17 (+) BALTIMORE 16

4* BYU over UNLV - The last time here the game was tied at 7,14, 21 and 28 but BYU went 74/11pl for a TD w/1:46 left. The Rebels are 3-14 SU but 8-5 ATS all-time vs the Cougs. The visitor is 10-3 ATS in this series. LY BYU scored DD in every Q for the 1st time S/’06 (59-21, -17). The Cougs are off a bye after holding on for a 25-20 win over WY 2W ago. QB Heaps should return to earlier season form (208 ypg in 1st 3 sts) after slumping the L/2 gms (86 ypg) as LV’s has the #104 pass eff D (206 ypg, 13-5 ratio). LV was routed by TCU 48-6 LW being outFD’d 30-12 and outgained 530-197. QB Clayton is avg 134 ypg (55%) with a 6-4 ratio. His fav target, Payne (25, 16.6, 2), did return LW after a 2 gm susp. UNLV HC Hauck is looking towards next year playing many of his frosh recruits. We used BYU as a 4H Newsletter Play 4 of the L/6 gms of ‘06 and they could very well be a “play on” team down the stretch again. FORECAST: BYU 41 Unlv 10

3* Florida over VANDERBILT - VU is 0-16 SU but 10-6 ATS vs UF and the visitor is 5-2 ATS. UF is 8-3 ATS as an SEC AF and VU is 0-6 as an SEC HD. LY UF (-35) outgained VU 375-199 but only had a 15-12 FD edge in a 27-3 win. Last time here UF (-23’) won 42-14 (-23’) delivering a 4H Winner on these pages. UF is off a much needed win over Georgia in OT with the “SEC East Champ gm” with SC on deck. UF ended their 3 gm losing streak, but VU is in the midst of a 3 gm losing streak and changed OC’s LW hoping to revive the off. VU jumped out to a 14-6 lead early 2Q vs Ark but allowed 43 unanswered pts in a 49-14 loss (outgained 555-153). VU QB Smith is only avg 129 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. UF QB Brantley is only avg 182 ypg (62%) with a 6-6 ratio. UF’s running gm struggled with RB Demps (488, 6.3) banged up but WR Rainey ret’d from susp LW and added 241 all-purp yds. VU is only avg 6 ppg and 170 ypg vs the upper-echelon SEC tms they have faced (LSU, GA, SC, Ark). Obvious flat spot is negated by UF having 3 losses. FORECAST: Florida 41 VANDERBILT 13

3* Oklahoma over TEXAS A&M - OU has now won 7 straight vs A&M (avg win 49-19) and LY Landry Jones passed for a career high 392 yds as the Sooners had ssn highs in pts (65) and yds (640). The HT is 13-3 ATS but OU won here in ‘08 66-28 (-27). OU rebounded from the Missouri loss with a 43-10 bulldoze of Colo as OU had 635-263 yd and 31-12 FD edges. QB Jones (318, 67%, 21-5) bounced back from a disastrous 4Q vs Mizzou with a career high 453 yd and 4 TD incl an OU record 208 yd to WR Broyles. The Sooners are #18 pass eff D. A&M beat rival TT 45-27 as the Ags had 623-452 yd and 35-24 FD edges. QB Tannehill hit 36-50 for 449 with a 4-1 ratio in his starting debut and preseason B12 OPY Johnson didn’t even see the field. A&M is #8 pass eff D. Despite the Sooners struggles on the road the L/2Y (1-6 ATS in non-RRR gms) they need to win here to keep pace in the South with Baylor. A&M has faced exactly one above-average D this year and they struggled scoring 9 at Mizzou. Oklahoma may top that. FORECAST: Oklahoma 44 TEXAS A&M 27

2* LA TECH (+) over Fresno St - Fresno leads the battle of the Bulldogs 8-3 SU but is only 2-7-1 ATS. LT has covered the L/6 and won outright 3 times and has never been a fav in this series in the 10 lined gms. LY there were 6 lead changes and 3 ties as LT lost 30-28 (+9) on a 35 yd FG on the final play. LTH, the gm was decided w/1:37 left on a 43 yd TD run (tied 3x’s) as LT won 38-35 (+4’) and outrushed FSU 280-63. FSU QB Colburn is avg 215 ypg (65%) with a 13-6 ratio and his top target is WR Hamler who has 23 rec (16.1). RB Rouse overcame inj’s to lead the tm with 441 yds (4.7). After wks of uncertainty at QB, LT’s Jenkins is clearly the #1, avg 158 ypg (68%) with a 7-2 ratio and since the 2H of the UH gm, he’s avg 252 ypg. RB Creer has 717 yds (5.5) and provides a bona fide running threat out of the spread while WR Ikharo has 38 rec (9.3) to headline the rec corps. FSU is on an 0-5 ATS skid while LT has covered in 9 of its L/10 at home. We’ll back the team with the better offense, better defense and strong home edge. FORECAST: LA TECH (+) 31 Fresno St 24

2* Tennessee over MEMPHIS - UT is 21-1 vs Memphis with their only loss 21-17 in 1996. In the 5 matchups S/’00 the Vols have won by an avg score of 46-20 outgaining UM by 226 ypg. LY Tenn led 49-7 early 3Q and won 56-28 (-25’). UT is 7-1 SU but 2-6 ATS in the series but the HT is 3-6 ATS as the Vols should have the crowd edge. UM has lost 5 in a row and LW’s 56-17 loss to Hou put UM out of bowl contention. UM RB Ray (497, 4.6) rushed for a career high 176 yds LW. QB Williams is only avg 144 ypg (58%) with a 7-6 ratio. The Vols’ young OL and inexperienced QB’s will not be overmatched this week. QB Simms is avg 176 ypg (58%) with an 8-5 ratio and has been replaced the L/2 wks by bkup Bray (53%, 2-3). UT is 3-0 as 20+ pt favs and UM has been outscored by an avg of 53-3.5 vs the 2 BCS tms they have faced TY. UT has lost 4 in a row and needs a feel good win here especially since 1 more loss puts them out of the bowls. Memphis’ last 4 gms have been losses by 41, 56, 22 and 39 with no real hope in site. FORECAST: Tennessee 41 MEMPHIS 10

2* Nebraska over IOWA ST - LY’s 8-0 TO edge gave ISU its 1st win at Lincoln S/’77. Twice NU fmbl’d into the EZ for a TB as the Huskers lost despite a 362-269 yd edge. Cyclones are 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS vs the Huskers losing by an avg score of 38-17 and NU won the last time here in ‘08 35-7 (-7’). NU took the B12 North lead throttling unbeaten Missouri after jumping out to a 24-0 1Q lead thanks to big plays. Helu had a school record 307 yds with TD runs of 66, 73 and 54 yd. QB Martinez (leg) didn’t play in the 2H but is expected to return for this. Blackshirts are #1 pass eff D. ISU trailed Kansas 9-7 at the half with just 5 FD before scoring 21 in the 3Q in a non-covering 28-16 win. QB Arnaud is #92 NCAA pass eff (152, 57%, 10-8) but the offense has revolved around the run gm including Robinson (725, 5.3). ISU is allowing 194 rush ypg (4.7). If you look up the definition of revenge in a college football dictionary LY’s game would be pictured. FORECAST: Nebraska 41 IOWA ST 13

RED SHEET

Nebraska 54 - IOWA STATE 13 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 18½, and is now minus 19½. Huskers have bounced back from Texas upset, with pair of wins & covers over Okla St & Missouri, both Top 20 outfits, garnering their first home cover in last week's 328-142 RY edge win over Mizzou. Tigers entered that game allowing only 115 RYpg. As we said, that was Nebraska's first home cover, a they've been road giants, with covers of 32, 24, & 4½, with those wipeouts coming vs Washington & KansasSt, teams much superior to these struggling Cycs, who dropped last home dog role by 41 pts. RATING: NEBRASKA 89

Arizona State 34 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 27 - (10:30 - FSN) -- Line opened at USC minus 7, and is now minus 5½. Complete turnaround from earlier forecast, which pegged Trojans with a rather easy win. But trusted resources report that the Trojans will be hard-pressed to get up for the Devils, with the aftereffects of their complete collapse in their huge game with top-ranked Oregon taking their toll. Nothing wrong with SC offense, with ranks 12th & 15th in total & scoring "O", but their "D" has been stung for 39 ppg in PacTen play, while ranking 98 in yds allowed. 'Devils back, & held 23-12 FD edge over USC in '09. RATING: ARIZONA STATE 89

LOUISIANA TECH 40 - Fresno State 31 - (4:00) -- Line opened at FresnoSt minus 2½, and is now minus 3½. As our readers are well aware, we were all over the Bulldogs as hosts a year ago, & were rewarded with a 4- 0 line sweep, with covers of 16, 18, 11, & 11½ pts. This time around, we took a wait-&-see approach, & it apparently proved prudent, when LaTech lost 37-23 to Navy (11-pt ATS miss) in its first lined hoster. But things sure are back to normal, covering all 3 since, the last 2 by 17 & 14 pts. In off giving superb "D" of Boise fits behind QB Jenkins & RB Creer. Still a bowl shot, & no FSt cover since 9/18. RATING: LOUISIANA TECH 88

MICHIGAN STATE 51 - Minnesota 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 25, and is now minus 24. Bounceback time for the Spartans, who dropped 10 spots in the polls (from 5th to 15th), following their initial loss of the season, in embarrassing showing at powerful Iowa. And they couldn't find a more perfect opponent, in which to take out frustrations, than these Gophers, who are headed for a 1-11 season, have fired their coach, rank 107th, 92nd, & 105 in run, total, & scoring "D", & whose 4 covers this year have come by scant 5., 1, 3½, & 4 pts. In off 52-10 home loss OhioSt, & allowing 30 ppg last 14 LGs. RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

Iowa 44 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Iowa minus 16½, and is now minus 17. Yes, we were stung by the Hoosiers in their earlier narrow loss to Michigan, on this field, as they went down by a 42-35 count, as 10-pt dogs. But they've covered only once since, & that by a mere ½ pt in last week's 20-17 loss to N'Western. They've dropped 9 straight conference games, allowing >35 ppg in their last 5 outings, & rank 110th in rushing offense, which puts the onus squarely on QB Chappell's shoulders. Iowa showed its worth with rout of MichiganSt, last week, directly on heels of previous week's heartbreaker. RATING: IOWA 88

Kansas City 30 - OAKLAND 27 - (4:15 -- Line opened at Oakland minus 1½, and is now minus 2½. Hard to fathom the sharp improvement of both of these squads. The past 2 weeks have been surreal, as far as the Raiders are concerned, with a combined 92-17 scoring edge, with covers of an astonishing 52½ & 28 pts. And how about a 567-122 RY edge! We take a backseat to none in respecting the legitimacy of Oakland's upswing. However, the Chiefs are their match, with their 5-2 record, on the heels of 4-12, 2-14, & 4-12 campaigns. Equal to Raiders overland, behind Charles & Jones, & have better run "D". RATING: KANSAS CITY 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): OklahomaSt, TCU, OregonSt, TCU -- NFL: Minnesota, NY Jets, & Cincinnati

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): TexTech (+6½ to +4); GaTech (+15½ to +13½); Houston (+4½ to +2½); Maryland (+12½ to +10½); Hawaii (+23½ to +21½); UtahSt (-15½ to -17½); SanDiegoSt (-15 to -17); Troy (-10 to -12); Baylor (+9 to +7½); ArizSt (+7 to +5½) - NFL: Minny (-7½ to -9)

KEY INJURIES: Probable: Ariz QB Foles (knee); Cincy QB Collaros (leg); Houston RB Beall (knee); Mo QB Gabbert (head); Neb QB Martinez (leg); Nevada RB Taua (ankle); NW QB Persa (concussion); OklaSt WR Blackmon (suspension); PSt QB Bolden (concussion) - Questionable: Ark WR Adams (ankle); BG RB Geter (ankle); L'Ville QB Froman (thigh); NMex QB Holbrook (shoulder) - Doubtful: Kansas QBs Webb (shoulder), & Pick (concussion); Lafayette QB Masson (knee); L'Ville RB Powell (knee); Miami-Fla QB Harris (concussion); Wash QB Locker (ribs) - Out Indefinitely: Cal QB Riley (knee); Toledo QB Dantin (shoulder) - Out For Season: Ark WR Adams (ankle); NoDame QB Crist (leg); TexA&M RB Michael (leg) - NFL: Probable: Houston WR Johnson (ankle); Minnesota QB Favre (jaw); Philly QB Vick (ribs); Seattle QB Hasselbeck (concussion) - Questionable: Carolina RB Williams (foot); Indy RBs Addai (shoulder), & Hart (ankle); Tenn QB Young (ankle) - Out Indefinitely: SF QB Smith (shoulder) - Waived: Minnesota WR Moss.....

PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET

NY Jets over DETROIT by 17

There are some simple rules in life. Embarrass an individual and expect them retaliate. In the NFL, the height of red-faced humiliation is being favored and failing to score a single point. And as a result of last week’s mortifying loss to the Packers, The Lip has drooped to an all-time level of lowness. The good news for them is they catch a bad team off a satisfying win, one they fi gure to run right into the ground, literally. That’s’ confi rmed by the Jets’ +1.4 team net YPR (offensive yards per rush minus its defensive yards per rush) as opposed to the Lions’ -1.7 team net YPR. That equates to over 3 net yards per rushing attempt in the Flyboys favor – and we’ll book this fl ight. We’ll also take in the fact that the Lions lose their roar as single-digit dogs when facing a .666 or greater opponent, going 0-7 ATS by an average losing margin of nearly 17 PPG. With the Green Apples currently 10-4 SU and ATS away from home under pilot Rex Ryan, including 7-1 SU and ATS against sub .666 opponents, the air has now been cleared. We’re fl ying fi rst class in a luxury Jet.

4* BEST BET

NY Giants over SEATTLE by 14

Simply put, there is a time during the regular season when a week of rest actually helps, not hurts, a team riding a win streak. And that situation applies to the Giants this week. Truth be told, it foiled the Jets last week and we’re betting Big Blue evens the score this Sunday. That’s because favorites off a Bye Week that have won each of their last four games are now 26-6 ATS when facing an opponent that did not win its previous game straight up as an underdog. It doesn’t hurt that the G-Men are 9-2 ATS against the NFC West, or that head coach Tom Coughlin is 21-5 ATS in his NFL career on non-division games off a division victory. Toss in Seattle’s super-soft 1-6 ATS mark as a host against the NFC East and we’ll assuredly back the team winning its games by 125 net YPG versus the one losing its games by 93 net YPG. And for that we’re eternally grateful. Goodnight, Seattle.

3* BEST BET

Miami over BALTIMORE by 3

“Trailers for sale or rent. Rooms to let… fi fty cents.” As uttered by Roger Miller, in his classic best-selling hit, the Dolphins have become ‘Kings of the Road’ in the NFL under Tony Sparano. Check out the numbers of life on the road with Miami’s most famous hitchhiker: 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS off win and 9-0 ATS when taking points. And as we’ve been reporting on these pages, the Big Thumb is now 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS taking points on the highway from Game Four out. Meanwhile, the Ravens awake off their Bye Week knowing they were outgained by 142 yards in a 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo prior to the break. The black birds also know they have cashed in only six of the last 18 tries as favorites in games off a win/no-cover. Until the Fish start singing a different tune, we’ll continue to travel with the four-bit King of the Road. Go ahead, you know the words: “Third boxcar, midnight train. Destination... Bangor, Maine.”

5* BEST BET

UTAH over TCU by 10

The frogs just keep on a-hoppin’… right past Boise State into No. 3 in the new BCS poll and straight into the record books with 22 (and counting) consecutive regular season wins in a row. However, Marc’s ‘Collision Course’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 sets the table for this upset-maker. And when we checked into the database for any ATS advantages, the Utah side it up like a Christmas tree. Ready? Kyle Whittingham’s redmen are a perfect 7-0 ATS as home dogs off back-to-back wins and an impressive 18-4-1 ATS as puppies in Mountain West play. The Utes have also posted a superb 29-5 SU mark at home under Whittingham – including 21 wins in a row. Meanwhile, the Horned Ones from Forth Worth arrive bearing this gift: they’re a sad 1-10 ATS playing on the road off a previous away game. And, honestly, the Froggies could fi nd themselves a bit gassed at this altitude… especially playing their 10th game in a row this season without coming up for water. With Utah cashing in three of the last four meetings and wearing the dog collar for the fi rst time all season, we expect to see frog legs on the holiday

4* BEST BET

OKLAHOMA ST over Baylor by 17

It’s great to be a Baylor Bear these days. The Waco Bruins are riding high atop the Big 12 South standings after last week’s stunning win over Texas and can unbelievably lock up a berth in the conference championship contest by winning their fi nal three games of the season against Okie State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. But if there’s one team on today’s card that might be feeling a bit too selfsatisfied to avoid a major letdown, it’s the Bears. Saturday’s upset of the Longhorns was HUGE. Superstar QB Robert Griffi n III set school records for career TD passes (39) and single-season total offensive yardage (2,993 yards) while leading Art Briles’ squad to its fi rst-ever decision over a Mack Brown-coached Texas team. Now Baylor must hit the road to tangle with a Cowboy outfi t that’s given them fi ts recently. OSU has won and covered four straight in the series (last two by near-identical scores of 34-7 and 34-6) and taken fi ve in a row both SU and ATS at Stillwater – by an average fi nal of 52-20. Wait… it gets worse. Our database reminds us that the Bears are 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS in their Last Road Game of the season, including 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS versus an .850 or less opponent. Making the trek even more diffi cult is the fact that it marks Baylor’s sixth game away from Waco in the last eight weeks, plus the Bears have played the entire campaign without rest. Yes, BU’s Griffi n gets all the ink but Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden has equaled or surpassed RGIII’s efforts this season, tossing 23 TD’s while completing 65% of his passes for 318 yards per game. The Pokes should also benefi t from the return of the nation’s top receiver, Justin Blackmon, who was held out of last week’s win over Kansas State due to an arrest on a misdemeanor DUI charge. Defensively, the Bears are no bargain: they were outgained by 100 yards in their victory at Austin and our ever-vigilant database tells us the last seven teams to upset Texas are a depressing 1-6 ATS in the next game. With sole possession of the Big 12 South lead on the line, look for Oklahoma State to outduel Baylor and improve to 5-0-1 ATS as home chalk of 10 or less points. Cowboys ruin Bruin dreams.

3* BEST BET

TEXAS A&M over Oklahoma by 7

C’mon, admit it… when OU -4 hit the board Sunday night, your fi rst reaction was, “Man, Oklahoma looks cheap.” But even though the Sooners are sailing along at 7-1 on the year, they seem to us like they’re doing it with mirrors. The usually formidable OU defense has slid to No. 68 in the national rankings and they have been outscored 67-30 in the crucial fourth quarter. Meanwhile, A&M owns so many edges in today’s matchup that they may not need their 12th man. The Aggies have cashed seven of the last eight tickets versus OU at College Station, they’re 5-0 ATS after taking on Texas Tech and they’re 4-1 ATS at home playing with conference revenge (Aggies got emasculated 65-10 last year). Bob Stoops’ team seldom rings the register when laying 9 or less points on the conference road, stumbling to a 1-4 ATS mark of late. However, Texas A&M appears to be rejuvenated after new QB Ryan Tannehill (team’s No.1 WR in 2008) debuted last week with a schoolrecord 449 yards in the Aggies’ romp over Texas Tech. Once again, the MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us to back the dog with the better offense and the better defense – and we willingly oblige. Too many holes in this year’s Sooner Schooner for our tastes. Take the points.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

Louisville over SYRACUSE by 6

We’ll call this one the ‘Battle of Bowl Eligibility’. The Orange need one more FBS win to go bowling for the fi rst time in six years while the Cardinals need wins in two of their fi nal four games to hit the alleys for the fi rst time since 2006. Not only do we expect Charlie Strong’s squad to bring the usual effort this afternoon, series history is squarely in Louie’s corner as the dog has garnered the cash the last seven times. Along with Strong, Syracuse HC Doug Marrone is making a case of his own for Big East Coach of the Year as the Orange’s six wins are the most since their 2004 bowl season. And while their back-to-back straight up dog wins at West Virginia and Cincinnati are impressive, our Midweek Alert points out that the ‘Cuse did manage to lose thestats in both contests. We’ve also squeezed this little seed out of our PLAYBOOK.com database: the Orange are just 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in games off a SU conference underdog win. Syracuse’s bowl eligibility is put on hold and their fi rst three-game streak in four years is not in the ‘Cards’ as Strong and Louisville inch closer to the postseason.

GOLD SHEET

TAMPA BAY by 1 over Atlanta
KANSAS CITY by 8 over Oakland
OVER THE TOTAL in the Indianapolis-Philadelphia game

FLORIDA by 27 over Vanderbilt
TEMPLE by 15 over Kent State
OREGON by 46 over Washington
NEBRASKA by 30 over Iowa State