Newsletters Oct 13 - Oct 17

CKO

11* CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Miami-Ohio

Despite setback last week at Va. Tech, it looks as if first-year CMU HC Dan Enos has put the puzzle together on offense quickly. Soph QB Ryan Radcliff (284 ypg passing this season) is making better decisions, jr. RB Paris Cotton (5.4 ypc TY) ran for 105 vs. the Hokies, and soph WR Cody Wilson has 27 catches. The Chippewas have the 18th-ranked pass attack and are a respectable 41st on defense. Hungry CMU has lost three in a row SU, but returns to Mt. Pleasant for homecoming this weekend. CMU has won and covered five straight such affairs, winning all by double digits, with an average margin of 24 points. Miami has struggled running the ball all season, exceeding 70 YR only against E. Michigan this season, while RedHawk QB Zac Dysert has thrown just 1 TD pass in the last 3 games and has thrown more interceptions than TDs during his career. Chip fans celebrate homecoming.

10* OLE MISS over Alabama

There are no free passes in the SEC, with minefields to be navigated every week. Just ask Alabama, which slipped on a banana peel last Saturday at South Carolina, just two weeks after being pushed to the limit at Arkansas. And bouncing back into the win column might not come easily for Tide vs. emerging Ole Miss bunch that is well-rested after last week’s bye and began to put the pieces together in recent wins over Fresno and Kentucky. Playmaking Oregon transfer QB Masoli (now 61% completions) has become more comfy in his new surroundings, with slamming RB Bolden (6.8 ypc) providing effective infantry support. Meanwhile, Nick Saban’s rebuilt Bama “D” not as airtight as LY and can’t locate a consistent pass rush (only 6 sacks), the absence of which could be inviting trouble vs. the mobile Masoli. Also, star WR Julio Jones has hand issues. Note that combative Rebs have covered their last 7 as dog away from Vaught-Hemingway!

10* COLORADO over Baylor

Baylor’s offense, with the speedy Robert Griffin back at QB after LY’s knee injury, is dangerous. But the Bear defense has failed to hold up vs. the two quality teams Baylor has faced, with TCU and Texas Tech each scoring 45. Meanwhile, Colorado is an improved team this season, using the ground game to help support its defense. The Buffaloes are 22nd in third-down conversion on offense and 16th in preventing third-down conversions on defense. CU has covered its last four games at home, while Baylor is 1-16 SU away from home in the Big XII road the last 4+ seasons. The Colorado defense has uncovered a couple of valuable pass rushers TY, so Griffin is likely to find himself under constant pressure to make plays, while the Buffs’ stable of RBs plays a little keep away. Value lies with the home dog.

10* TROY over Lousiana - Lafayette

After playing a series of nail-biters in September, two-time defending Sun Belt Champ Troy coalesced in resounding 42- 13 romp at Middle Tennessee on Oct. 5. And with the reloading Trojan defense flying to the ball (held potent Blue Raider attack to only 207 yds!), firmly believe Troy continues stranglehold on ULL squad it’s whipped by avg. 27 pts. last 4 meetings (all covers). Trojans’ poised & precise RS frosh QB Corey Robinson (63%, 11 TDs, just 3 ints.) completed passes to 11 different receivers vs. MTSU, while four RBs combined for 238 yds. That kind of serious depth is bad news for thin Ragin’ Cagun squad outscored 105-14 after intermission this season. Ouch! Moreover, the ULL offense took a blow when No. 1 RB Streeter (7.2 ypc) suffered season-ending injury. So, look for Larry Blakeney’s well focused squad (this is only game over 24-day period!), spearheaded by marvelous WR/returner Jernigan (178 allpurpose yds. pg; 4th nationally), to convincingly notch its 14th straight SB victory.

10* CHICAGO over Seattle

NFL road dogs got off to an impressive start this season. But Seattle’s 31-14 loss at Denver was an exception (the Seahawks were favored in their other road game at St. Louis). Seattle has now covered only 1 of its last 11 on the road. QB Jay Cutler (out with a concussion last week) reportedly has a good chance to return. On defense, free-agent acquisition Julius Peppers doesn’t necessarily have a lot of sacks (only 3), but he IS commanding extra attention on nearly every play, limiting offensive options and freeing up teammates (DT Israel Idonije 3 sacks last week at Carolina). Chicago shook up its OL with success after yielding 10 sacks vs. the Giants in New York the previous week, with RB Matt Forte motoring for 166 YR.

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

NINE-RATED GAMES: SYRACUSE (+2½) vs. Pittsburgh—Syracuse alum Doug Marone has the Orange believing in the Orange; his defense is 15th in the country...MARYLAND (+14) at Clemson—Big plays fewer for the 2-3 Tigers TY; RS frosh QB Danny O’Brien giving the Terps an aerial element...NEBRASKA (-9½) vs. Texas—Huskers have been waiting for nearly a year for this game; can tricky RS frosh QB Martinez mystify the Horns as he has done others?...TEXAS A&M (-3½) vs. Missouri—Aggies happy to be home after two road losses; big QB edge if the Tigers’ Gabbert bothered by hip injury...HAWAII (+7½) vs. Nevada—Each can’t stop the other; don’t mind having a TD...ATLANTA (+1½; estimated) at Philadelphia (NFL)—QB Ryan-RB Turner-WR White, TE Gonzalez a terrific quartet; don’t sleep on the improved Falcon defense (14 ppg).

TOTALS: UNDER (44) in the New Orleans-Tampa Bay Game—Bucs defense is genuine; don’t trust their offense to generate many points vs. champs.

NELLY

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 KANSAS CITY (+4½) over Houston
RATING 4 DETROIT (+10) over NY Giants
RATING 3 NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Baltimore
RATING 2 INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Washington
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+4½) over New Orleans

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 TEXAS TECH (-3½) over Oklahoma State
RATING 4 VIRGINIA (+6½) over North Carolina
RATING 3 FLORIDA (-8) over Mississippi State
RATING 2 UTAH (-20) over Wyoming
RATING 2 KENTUCKY (+6) over South Carolina
RATING 1 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-10½) over Miami, OH
RATING 1 BUFFALO (+15½) over Northern Illinois

PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET

New Orleans over TAMPA BAY by 17

Okay, Saints fans. Get ready to meet the defending Super Bowl champions at their best this week. Who dat been playing in Saints uniforms this season, you wonder? With nary a pointspread win to its credit this season, New Orleans has tightened up its defense to the tune of 61 YPG. What they have failed to do is crack the 400-yard barrier on offense in any game this campaign… very un-Drew Brees like to say the least. Coming to the rescue is this winning angle from our powerful database, one that tells us that defending Super Bowl champions playing on the road off a straight-up loss as a favorite taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win are 17-6-2 ATS, including 14-2-2 ATS when facing a .500 or greater foe. Toss in Tampa’s 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in home games under Raheem Morris and its 1-10 ATS record in October when playing off a straight underdog win and suddenly New Orleans is looking more like last year’s Saints. The Who Dat’s are back!

4* BEST BET

Dallas over MINNESOTA by 10

Brett Farce had better hope his impending trial isn’t filled with an all-woman jury, or one that had the Vikings last Monday night. If so he’ll never be exonerated. If watching the 500-hitter toss another game-deciding pick-6 wasn’t tough enough, we’re now forced to endure the next ‘Tiger Woods’ scandal. It’s a good thing Randy Moss was brought in to take some of the heat off Old No. 4. He’s going to need as many microphones pointed in another direction as quickly as possible. And talking about troubled times, it’s practically a ‘now-ornever’ situation for both of these struggling 1-3 clubs, each picked to win their division prior to the start of the 2010 season. At least the Cowboys enter with fewer distractions. They also bring the league’s 2nd ranked offense and 8th ranked defense into the Metrodome, being one of only three teams in the league that remain perfect ‘In The Stats’ this season. While normally a look-ahead to the Giants would be a concern, our database tells us not to worry as Dallas was 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS this past decade in games before meeting the G-Men, including 10-1 SU and ATS versus losing opposition and 9-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss. With Minny a not-so-mighty 3-19 ATS as favorites in games before facing the Packers, including 1-12 ATS against an opponent off a loss, we’ll ride with the Cowboys in this ‘before-and-after’ fairy tale… ‘before’ Brett comes clean and ‘after’ the media does its thing.

3* BEST BET

JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 7

Like the Redskins, the Titans have been winning ugly while leaking oil, posting a 2-1 SU record despite an 0-3 ‘ITS’ number. And like Shanahan, Jags HC Jack Del Rio prospers in tonight’s role, posting a solid 13-5 ATS mark as a division dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS if his squad is .600 or greater on the season. Jacksonville has also been money in the bank in this series as dogs off a SU dog win, posting a perfect 4-0 ATS mark while the Titans are just 1-5-1 ATS as favorites off a SU dog win versus an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. All solid numbers but the clincher comes from our PLAYBOOK. Com database as it notes: NFL division home dogs off a SU nondivision road dog win and back-to-back SU wins are 18-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU win. While we’d like to thank Jeff Fisher and the Titans for delivering an easy NFL Game of the Month win in Dallas last week, his shaky stop unit can’t be trusted as a division road favorite. The hosts win this one outright – if not, we’ll blame it on Rio.

5* BEST BET

California over USC by 10

Guess what, folks? The siege of Troy is far from over. New USC head coach Lane Kiffen fully understands the meaning of this week’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article – ‘Only The Good Die Young” – because these are not your old man’s Trojans. Not only has O.J.’s alma mater gone a paltry 5-8 In The Stats in its last 13 games, previously invincible Southern Cal was outgained by 222 total yards in those matchups. Nowadays, even the Coliseum is no longer an intimidating factor: USC is only 5-9 as home chalk off a SU loss, including 1-6 ATS when allowing 18.5 or more PPG on the season (Trojans surrendering 26.0 PPG under Kiffi n). In fact, the Golden Bears have found the Coliseum’s turf much to their liking lately, clawing their way to an 8-2 ATS series advantage – which tightens to a perfect 5-0 ATS if Cal is off a straight up win. However, despite the glowing spread history, UC head coach Jeff Tedford has been skinned annually in the SU department, going 1-7 and losing the last six straight – so you know he’s breathing fi re to get at Kiffi n. The Bears own 174 yards the better defense (have held all fi ve foes to season-low or 2nd-low yards this season) and Tedford just so happens to be the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. With Cal now 8-1 ATS as a dog off a SU and ATS win and USC facing a revenger against Oregon (Trojans 2-6 ATS before revengers and 2-5 ATS before Ducks), this looks as good a spot as any for the Bears to awake from their six-game losing skid in this series. Tedford gets even and we get paid… now there’s an economic process we can all understand.

4* BEST BET

KENTUCKY over South Carolina by 7

In our ‘what have you done for us lately’ game of the week, a pair of SEC East squads do battle in Lexington. The Wildcats, who will not win the division, did deliver an ATS cover as a 4* Best Bet in our Newsletter last week while the Gamecocks, who now control the East, delivered a late-phone selection victory over ‘Bama and jump-started us to a 4-0 Saturday on the phones. Those who have followed us know who we’ll be riding in this one – and it won’t be the road favorite. And we have the full support of our Midweek Alert and PLAYBOOK.com database. For starters, the Gamecocks are gaining only 10 YPG more than they are allowing this season while Joker Phillips’ Wildcats have held three foes to season-low yards this season. Surprisingly, the Bluegrass ‘Cats arrive with both the better offense AND the better defense. And while it may be common knowledge to UK backers that the Wildcats are an insoluble 7-1 ATS at home in Game Seven and 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS off three straight losses, here’s a trend that only our database could uncover: teams off a rested, revenge straight-up home dog win are just 8-17 ATS versus a foe off three SU losses, including 1-5 SU and ATS if the foe is .400 or greater. If you’re enamored with that trend, you may want to catch your breath before diving into this one: the last 14 home dogs who faced a conference opponent coming off a SU home dog win over an undefeated foe are an incredible 13-1 ATS. Word has it that South Carolina HC Steve Spurrier got a good laugh by handing last week’s game ball to himself. We have a feeling this week the ‘Joker’ will be on him. Wildcats outright.

3* BEST BET

NC State over EAST CAROLINA by 17

The Pirates rally from a 20-0 fi rst-quarter defi cit to a 44-43 upset win over Southern Miss last week cost us a sweep of our Newsletter NCAA Best Bets. We don’t take kindly to that. While we will still be using a 3* Best Bet against them, we’ll be sending in the heavy artillery this week – as in our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK. Not only is HC Tom O’Brien’s head-turning 16-0 doozy at work today, so is his sterling 32-12-1 ATS career mark in games off a spread win of more than eight points, including 16-2-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU and ATS win. And while kudos go out to East Carolina fi rst-year HC Ruffi n McNeil and his 3-2 start – with two of those wins coming SU as dogs – we don’t see him hitting the trifecta this afternoon in Greenville. Not with a team that is just 1-4 ‘ITS’ and a defense that has surrendered season-high yards to four of fi ve opponents this season. In fact, the Pirates’ stop unit has been lit up for 42 PPG this season; only Eastern Michigan, New Mexico and Washington State have allowed more. Not good news with Russell Wilson and his 8th-rated passing attack (311 YPG) coming to town. The Pack have won the last two in this series (both as dogs) by an average score of 36-22 and by a whopping average ATS cover of 21 points. Hmm, maybe we should rethink our 17-point margin. No ‘Raleigh’ this week for the defenseless hosts – State ‘Packs’ it on.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

Illinois over MICHIGAN ST by 6

With Ohio State not on the schedule and Wisconsin in the rear-view mirror, could the undefeated Spartans be in line for a Big Ten title as well as national honors? Not so fast, my friends. Sparty comes in a bit too infl ated for our liking after scoring a daily double with two straight-up dog wins over Wisky and Michigan (thank you, Mark Dantonio, for those two late-phone cashes). In fact, we see Lee Corso putting the Sparty headgear back in storage after this one is said and done. Yes, we realize that Michigan State has owned the series, winning seven of the last eight both SU and ATS. However, that loss occurred the last time these two met in East Lansing in 2006. State is also a defl ated 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home after meeting Michigan. They must now deal with an Illini squad that arrives with the nation’s 20th-ranked defense and has held four of their fi ve opponents this year to season-low or 2nd-low yardage. And it’s not like they have been playing the ‘Sisters of the Poor’ as these schools have produced a solid 15-5 SU record versus FBS foes. Illinois’ 5-0 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back road games along with their 6-1 ATS log after dealing with Penn State is certainly encouraging, but the clincher is HC Ron Zook’s determined 11-3 ATS record versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including 8-1 ATS as a dog. In what Robin would describe as a ‘Holy Upset’, it’s time for another homecoming favorite to bite the dust. Wham, Pow, Crunch, Zook!

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASES

NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay RATING: 2
DALLAS over Minnesota RATING: 3
KANSAS CITY over Houston RATING: 4
INDIANAPOLIS over Washington RATING: 5
CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh RATING: 5

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

UTAH over Wyoming RATING: 1
WISCONSIN over Ohio State RATING: 1
TEXAS A&M over Missouri RATING: 2
BOISE STATE over San Jose State RATING: 3
IOWA over Michigan RATING: 4
NEBRASKA over Texas RATING: 4
SO MISSISSIPPI over Memphis RATING: 5
TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma State RATING: 6

POWERSWEEP

NHL KEY SELECTIONS

4H NY GIANTS over Detroit - The Lions are 0-6 SU and ATS before a bye being outgained 385-235 and losing by an avg score of 32-10. The Giants have a clear statistical edge with the #5 and #2 units (-4 TO’s) vs the Lions #17 and #25 units (+3 TO’s). DET was in an ideal situation at home taking on a team with a comparable talent level with a rookie QB in his 2nd road game after 2 home wins. While the scoreboard shows a rout by the Lions in their 1st victory thanks to a 105 yd KR and 42 yd int return for TDs the stats were closer than expected. DET was outgained by 19 yds, gave up 43% conversions on 3rd Dn, committed 11 penalties and lost the TOP battle by 6:32. After beating CHI with a great defensive effort the Giants beat the Texans with an outstanding offensive showing. The Giants logged 17-4 FD and 254-74 yd edges at the end of the 1H with 3 scoring drives of 70+ yds on the day. The Giants held Foster who led the NFL by 126 yds before LW to just 25 yds (2.3) on the day. DET is only 2-8 ATS as a DD dog, are off their biggest win since 1995, WR Johnson (shoulder) hurt himself late in the 4Q and now face a Giants team with momentum. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 41 Detroit 13

3H CHICAGO over Seattle - CHI beat SEA 25-19 as a 2.5 pt AF LY. SEA was without Hasselbeck and 6 other starters but opened with a 13-0 lead. CHI rallied back thanks to 2 SEA TO’s they converted into 10 pts. Cutler logged 247 yds (78%) with a 3-1 ratio in the game vs the same defense SEA runs. The Bears opted to shut down Cutler (concussion) vs CAR LW but he is expected to start here. The Bears defense was the dominant unit LW as they did what they were supposed to holding CAR to 147 yds (just 2.4 yds per play), logged 5 sacks, 3 ints and forced 7 straight punts. SEA is 2-10-1 ATS away after a bye and have lost the L4 by 15 ppg. They made a good move by trading for BUF’s RB Lynch (164 yds 4.4 TY) who’ll bolster the #29 rush attack mainly on 1st and 2nd Dns as Carroll doesn’t trust him to pick up blitzes yet in passing situations. SEA has actually been outgained more at home TY (134 ypg) than on the road (61 ypg). They’ve been outscored 51-17 on the road due to -5 TO’s with 4 of those coming in the opposing 30. This is the best Bears defense since 2006 and we’ll take the home team as we expect Cutler to return. FORECAST: CHICAGO 31 Seattle 17

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H DENVER (+) over NY Jets - The Jets are off LW’s MNF game vs the Vikings and road teams are a surprising 7-3 ATS before a bye after MNF. Statistically this looks like a fairly even matchup with the Jets having the #13 and #11 units (+8 TO’s) vs DEN’s #4 and #19 units (0 TO’s). A closer look at the schedule shows that DEN has faced 4 teams with an offense 19th or lower and 4 teams with a defense 22nd or lower. The Jets have faced 3 offenses ranked 18th or lower with 3 defenses ranked 7th or better including MIN. DEN has beaten SEA who simply doesn’t travel well and only outgained them by 30 yds and while they had a 519-365 yd edge they imploded vs IND in the red zone (2 FG, 3 SOD). LW vs the Ravens (who basically run a carbon copy of the Jets defense) Orton had his 4th straight 300 yd game but 137 of that was after the game was out of reach. The Broncos injuries at RB has been a serious obstacle (outrushed by 76 ypg with a 2.3 ypc). Rookie WR Thomas (13 rec 12.4) was KO’d of LW’s game with a neck injury. DEN is catching the Jets off their 3rd primetime game in 5 Wks, in their 3rd road game in 4 Wks in the altitude with a bye on deck and the HD in a good situation and is the Ugly Dog Play. FORECAST: DENVER 21 (+) NY Jets 17

2H MINNESOTA over Dallas - The Vikings crushed the Cowboys in LY’s CSF’s 34-3 as a 3 pt HF. MIN dominated more than the 323-248 yd edge implies as the defense tormented Romo with 6 sacks and held the Cowboys to 5 FD and 103 yds in the 2H. With 2:00 left in the game and up 27-3 MIN rubbed it in as instead of hitting the FG, Favre threw an 11 yd TD pass. MIN went all-in for 2010 trading for Moss to bolster a sorely disappointing passing game. MIN is in a prime-time sandwich off the NYJ with a trip to GB on deck but this is the Cowboys visiting and they still trail both CHI and GB. The Vikings have won 10 of 11 at home under Favre and have gone 8-3 ATS and their only SU loss came earlier TY as they outgained MIA 364-226 but were done in by turnovers. Dallas meanwhile was off a bye and while they moved the ball (outgained TEN 511-321) they were sacked 6 times had 133 yds in pen and Romo threw an int in the EZ. A rejuvenated RB Peterson (392, 5.6) and TE Shiancoe (11 rec, 15.4) will be the 2 beneficiaries playing against defenses that must now double team Moss. MIN should also see fewer blitzes and Favre is now 10-0-1 ATS when getting sacked 2 times or less the L2Y. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 34 Dallas 24

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

4H Arizona over WASH ST - AZ is off its 1st loss of the ssn LW vs OSU, a defeat that knocked them out of the Top 10. Like the rest of the P10 when it comes to playing against WSU, AZ has owned the series winning the L/4 by 25 ppg incl LY when the Cats scored on their first 7 poss in their 48-7 romp (WSU has been outgained by a comb 1002-393 in the L/2). WSU did show some fight for a 2nd consec wk vs UO but still came up 20 pts short in the home defeat. While the dog has gone 7-3 ATS in this series, WSU is just 8-13 ATS vs the P10 under Wulff losing by a 45-11 avg making this another potential long day in Pullman. A quick strike offense, a hungry defense, a team that was ranked in the Top 10 off a rare home sellout loss has all the makings for a blowout. FORECAST: Arizona 51 WASH ST 16

3H TULSA over Tulane - History hasn’t been good for the Green Wave in CUSA play vs Tulsa as they are 0-5 SU/ATS losing by an avg score of 43-12. A wk after their big win vs Rut, Tulane took a step back vs Army in the 18 pt defeat. Despite the 3 pt loss LW to SMU, Tulsa delivered a 3H LPS Winner (+6’) but could have easily won outright having 2 FG’s blk’d. LY Tulane trailed 17-0 in the first 9:00 and never got closer than 14 pts in the 37-13 loss. The last time here Tulsa was -28’ and we used them as a 3H LPS and they rolled to a 56-7 win. Tulane has been fortunate enough to face bkup QB’s in 2 of the L/3 wks and should have difficulty against Hurricane starter Kinne (298 ttl ypg, 60%, 13-6 ratio) here as Tulsa is expected to roll (3-1 ATS run as fav of 20+ pts). Very similar to our 4H release as we have a quality program with an improving defense off a loss against a struggling offensive team. FORECAST: TULSA 48 Tulane 13

3H California over USC - Cal returned to its winning ways LW vs UCLA delivering a 4H LPS Winner as the Bears held a UCLA run game that was avg 321 ypg rush (5.9) to a meager 26 yds (1.0) on the ground. The Trojans fell victim to a game-winning FG on the last play for a 2nd consec wk in the loss to Stanford even though they had the yardage (499-484) and TO (3-1) edge. USC’s defense has dominated the Golden Bears the L/2Y by a combined 47-6 score (outgaining Cal by a 434-220 avg) incl last time here when the game was tied 3-3 early in the 2Q with Cal being shutout the rest of the way and being held to 87 ttl yds. The visitor is on an 11-3 ATS run and HC Kiffin may a difficult time keeping his units focused as his “Us Against the World” mantra is harder to preach after an upset loss to UW and an emotionally draining loss to Stanford. FORECAST: California 31 USC 24

OTHER SELECTIONS

2H Houston over RICE - At just 6 miles apart, Houston and Rice have the closest campuses of any FBS schools. UH was pounded at home LW vs Miss St 47-24 as the Bulldogs delivered our 5H Oct GOM Winner (538-403 yd edge). The Owls also come into this one off a beatdown as UTEP put up 463 yds in their 44-24 defeat. The HT is 8-3 ATS in this series and that has definitely been the story over the L/2Y as UH needed a win to wrap up the CUSA Title and led 59-0 at the half playing their bkups the entire 2H LY which was a yr after their disappointing performance at Rice, a game in which they were upset 56-42 (-3) costing them a bid to the CUSA Champ game (did trail 56-28). UH is 1-9 ATS as an AF incl a dismal performance at UCLA earlier TY. While it is well known that Houston is with a 3rd string QB and we used that to our advantage LW, they are also a well coached team that has quality players that will fill in to this “system’s” role. FORECAST: Houston 47 RICE 30

2H GEORGIA over Vanderbilt - GA is 8-1 SU (lost in ‘06) and 5-4 ATS but the visitor is 14-4 ATS and prior to LY the previous 3 were decided by 5 ppg. UGA (-7’) outgained Vandy 399-296 in a 34-10 win LY. Both are off huge much-needed wins with GA QB Murray avg 228 ypg (62%) with a 10-3 ratio. The GA running gm is struggling avg only 137 ypg (4.0). VU crushed EM LW and QB Smith is avg 159 ypg (56%) with a 5-3 ratio. RB’s Norman (327, 6.2) and Stacy (241, 6.9) split carries. Vandy is 9-2-1 as an AD. GA meanwhile is 4-9 ATS as a HF though 2-1 TY with covers by 19 (opener vs UL) and 16 pts (Tenn) LW. GA has large edges on off (#22-86), def (#21-60) and ST (#2-57). UGA ended its 4 gm losing streak LW and with the return of WR Green (108 ypg, 16.5), UGA may be a play-on tm the rest of the yr. FORECAST: GEORGIA 41 Vanderbilt 17

2H Mississippi (+) over ALABAMA - The SU winner is 20-6 ATS in this series and UM has covered 5 of the L/7. LY, AL picked off UM 4x and Bama RB Ingram rushed for 172 yds and the game’s only TD while PK Tiffin hit 5 FG’s (single gm record) in Bama’s 22-3 win in Oxford. Ole Miss is fresh off a bye (5-0 ATS) while Bama plays for its 7th str week and is off their 1st reg ssn loss S/’07, 35-21 to SC. Ingram (396, 7.1) and Richardson (442, 7.0) were held to 64 yds combined LW and QB McElroy (216 ypg, 72%, 9-3) lost this first gm as a starter since grade school (35-1). UM QB Masoli (165 ypg, 61%, 6-5, 262 rush, 5.2) upset 2 Top 6 tms at Oregon. RB Bolden has 518 (6.8) but UA’s #3 D is only allowing 102 rush ypg (3.3). Nutt is 6-0 ATS as a true AD and 7-0 ATS vs Top 10 tms covering by 18.8 ppg and has upset #2, #1 (twice), #4 and #18 tms outright in that span. UM is 10-1 as an SEC AD while Saban is 1-6 ATS off a SU loss at Bama. While others may want to play Bama off the loss, very few programs have had a 4 week schedule the Tide has faced. FORECAST: Mississippi (+) 17 ALABAMA 31

RED SHEET
89 TEXAS TECH 51 - 31
89 IOWA 48 - 24
88 ILLINOIS 24 - 23
88 NC St. 51 - 20
88 FLA St. 45 - 10
88 DOLPHINS 24 - 23