Newsletters Oct 21 - Oct 25

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

VIRGINIA TECH
As we mentioned a week ago, we’ve seen HC Frank Beamer’s Virginia Tech roll off some long pointspread win streaks over the years. And after the Hokies made in five in a row last week with a dominating win over Wake Forest, they go for six straight on Saturday when Duke invades Blacksburg. VPI is also 8-3 its last 11 laying double digits, and as always is a featured Coach and Pointspread recommendation with Beamer.

NORTH CAROLINA
Series and team trends present a compelling argument for North Carolina when it travels to Miami on Saturday for an ACC battle vs. the host Hurricanes. Tar Heel HC Butch Davis has won and covered three straight vs. the Canes, and his UNC teams are also 13-5 vs. the number getting points, making them a featured Power Underdog and College Coach as Underdog (with Butch) recommendations this week. Note, too, that Miami is just 5-13 vs. the number as home chalk vs. FBS foes since HC Randy Shannon took over in 2007.

GEORGIA TECH
We’re a bit surprised the oddsmakers are giving Georgia Tech so much cushion for its Saturday trip to Clemson. After all, the Yellow Jackets have beaten the Tigers in three meetings (including last year’s ACC title game) the past two seasons. Under HC Paul Johnson, GT is also 6-2 its last 8 as an underdog, and qualifies as a featured recommendation in a variety of systems (Power Underdog, College Coach as Dog and Coach & Pointspread) this week. Note the Tigers are 0-3 as a home dog since HC Dabo Swinney took over in mid 2008.

RUTGERS
Recent meetings between Big East foes Rutgers and Pitt have been formful, with the road team covering the last four matchups. Which is good news for the Scarlet Knights as they rumble in Heinz Field for a Saturday kickoff. Rutgers, which has won its last trips to Pittsburgh, stands a noteworthy 5-1 as a road dog since 2007 and 17-5 in that role since 2003. The Scarlet Knights are also featured recommendations in the Power Underdog and College Coach as Underdog systems with HC Greg Schiano this week. And note the Panthers’ subpar 6-11 spread mark their last 17 as home chalk.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Recent trends in the MAC are pretty illuminating regarding Northern Illinois and Central Michigan, with a big edge to the Huskies, who host the Chips on Saturday at DeKalb. Note that NIU has won its last 4 and covered its last 5 games in 2010, while CMU has dropped three straight. The Huskies have also recorded a solid +13.75 “AFS” (Away from Spread) mark their last two games, with CMU a -10.25 the same span.

CLEVELAND
Early season NFL trends have shaded the underdogs, partly because teams such as the Saints are having trouble covering as a favorite. Which makes visiting dog Cleveland a very interesting recommendation on Sunday at the Superdome. Note how the Brownies have traveled well lately, standing 6-2-1 vs. the line their last nine away, while the Saints have covered just 5 of their last 19 on the board.

CKO

11* INDIANA over Illinois
See solid value in taking double digits with Indiana team which has great offensive weapons facing Illinois contingent that’s underachieved as a favorite. Hoosier QB Chappell leads the nation’s 5th-ranked passing attack into Champaign this week. Chappell has very dangerous receivers in Demarlo Belcher and Tandon Doss (13th & 18th nationally in receptions, respectively), both of whom have solid NFL potential. Doss leads the country in all-purpose yards. Believe oddsmakers have overcompensated for injury to Indiana RB Darius Willis (4.3 ypc), who was a good (but not great) back. Willis has been replaced by 5th-year senior Trea Burgess, who ran for 102 yards vs. Arkansas State and has averaged 4.6 ypc this season. The Illini have lost seven straight games as a favorite facing FBS schools, and it’s homecoming this week, which hasn’t necessarily been a good thing for Zook’s Illinois squad. The Illini have dropped five homecoming games in a row against the points.

10* N. ILLINOIS over C. Michigan
Well-coached Northern Illinois has quietly become one of the hottest teams in the nation, with four straight wins and five straight covers. The Huskies (3-0 in league play) are riveted on winning the MAC West, and that means a victory in this game against multiple champ Central Michigan is crucial. While Northern is hitting on all cylinders (45-14 last week over Buffalo), the Chippewas are in a re-adjustment period under new HC Dan Enos and new QB soph Ryan Radcliff (trying to replace the dominating Dan LeFevour). The Huskies (11th in the nation in rushing) are loaded at RB, and experienced, mobile QB Chandler Harnish has taken immediately to TY’s new offensive sets. NIU’s smallish, but experienced defense should be able to handle the still-learning Radcliff (3 ints. last week vs. Miami) and keep the Huskies rolling.

10* HAWAII over Utah State
Long-time WAC sources report that surprising and now legit WAC contender Hawaii (look out Boise State!) will suffer no letdown following back-to-back upsets vs. Fresno State and previously undefeated Nevada. So, seriously doubt the bye week will benefit floundering 2-4 Utah State (0-2 start in league play), unable to make steady progress under 2ndyear HC Gary Andersen, who says “We need to grow up as team.” Sorry, Gary, no growth spurt here vs. complete Warriors, coming off a brilliant defensive effort in 27-21 stunner vs. explosive Wolf Pack “pistol.” And the cohering UH stop unit is ultimately prepared for Aggies’ run-oriented QB Borel after bottling up Nevada’s long-legged, swift, dualthreat Kaapernick. On other side, Warriors’ torrid QB Moniz (nation-leading 2532 YP) & his WR corps will feast on burnable USU secondary (allowing 230 ypg) unwisely preferring man coverage. Plus, trip to Logan is no big deal for UH, which has already logged over 6,000 miles in earlier trips to West Point & Fresno. Also, Warriors only a safety away from an 8-0 spread run in WAC.

10* PITTSBURGH over Miami
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Ben Roethlisberger looked so sharp (3 TDP) when returning to Pittsburgh’s lineup last week. Remember, HC Mike Tomlin had planned for Roethlisberger’s early-season absence since summer. And Big Ben was hardly rusty in his return, having experienced live action in the preseason and working with the first team in practice, including the bye week before last Sunday’s 28-10 win over the Browns. Roethlisberger’s return and the usual rock-ribbed Steeler defense presents a compelling case these days, especially against a Miami offense that figures to have problems establishing its preferred infantry component and Wildcat looks against Dick LeBeau’s voracious stop unit that’s allowing less than 3 ypc. Note how the Dolphins’ curious ineffectiveness at home (now 6-20 vs. spread last 26 as host) has continued in recent Sun Life Stadium losses vs. the Jets and Patriots.

10* NEW ENGLAND over San Diego
San Diego is a vulnerable favorite these days. Key TE Antonio Gates (ankle) wasn’t able to finish the St. Louis game. WR Legudu Naanee (hamstring) did not travel. WR Malcolm Floyd also strained a hamstring. Strong S Steve Gregory is suspended. CB Antoine Cason suddenly can’t cover. LB Shawne Merriman is through with the team, even though the LB platoon has been hit by injuries. The special teams have been an early-season disaster. Meanwhile, the Patriots have fought through their own injuries, especially at RB, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepping in well for Fred Taylor and 5-7 RB David Woodead being a spark as a third-down back replacing the done-for-the-year Kevin Faulk. Deion Branch rejoined the team to replace Randy Moss, tallying 9 receptions in his first game. The Pats need a victory to keep pace with the trash-talking Jets in the AFC East. The new, young N.E. defense is still being molded. But Bill Belichick has a healthy Tom Brady directing an attack loaded with quality targets.

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

NINE-RATED GAMES: NAVY (+6½) vs. Notre Dame [at New Meadowlands Stadium in N.J.]—Middies have an experienced triple-option backfield; always sky high when facing the Irish...MINNESOTA (+9½) vs. Penn State—Insiders say ouster of HC Brewster might be a positive for the Gophers; Penn State fighting through injuries, frosh QB, and other problems...NORTHWESTERN (+6) vs. Michigan State—Wildcats well-rested, well-coached; Spartans vulnerable now that they’re riding high?...WASHINGTON (+7) at Arizona—Husky offense can strike on many dimensions; Wildcats adapting to backup QB Matt Scott after injury to Nick Foles....WASHINGTON (NFL; +3) at Chicago—Redskins a tougher customer under Shanahan/McNabb; can Bears keep Cutler upright behind porous OL? TOTALS: UNDER (43) in the Cleveland-New Orleans Game—Both teams have skill players banged up; Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer in 5 of 6 games TY...OVER (45) in the N.Y. Giants-Dallas Game (Monday Night)—Both teams have scoring power and playmakers; 1-4 Cowboys must keep firing in this one

NELLY

RATING 5 WASHINGTON (+3) over Chicago
RATING 4 SEATTLE (-4½) over Arizona
RATING 3 ST. LOUIS (+3) over Tampa Bay
RATING 2 SAN DIEGO (-3) over New England
RATING 1 CAROLINA (+3) over San Francisco

RATING 5 TCU (-19½) over Air Force
RATING 4 GEORGIA TECH (+5½) over Clemson
RATING 3 UAB (+19½) over Mississippi State
RATING 2 IOWA (-5½) over Wisconsin
RATING 2 CONNECTICUT (-2) over Louisville
RATING 1 OHIO (-3) over Miami, OH
RATING 1 LSU (+6½) over Auburn

PLAYBOOK

5* CAROLINA over San Francisco by 10

By the looks of things it appears we’ll have a deep vested interest in the Panthers today. For openers, the switch back to QB Matt Moore is a welcome relief over pimply-faced Jimmy Clausen. Things get even clearer with the support of Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW treatise on page 2 of this week’s newsletter. It becomes dramatically lucid knowing Carolina is another of our famed ‘Ugly Pig’ plays as well. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark in this series, including 0-5 ATS here, and we can hear Johnny Nash warming up in the background. The fact that San Fran is another West Coast team laying points on an East Coast property really brings the picture into focus. And the Niners’ 1-8 ATS record as a road favorite is like medicated drops for Carolina’s sore eyes. Add to all that this Playbook exclusive: NFL teams playing in England the next week are required by the league to depart immediately from the city in which they are playing the week before leaving for London. That makes this a venue in which San Francisco would rather not be helter-skeltered in this week. It also makes this a clear-cut play on the hometown Cats today.

4* DALLAS over NY Giants by 14

As Elvis once said “It’s Now or Never” for Wade Phillips and the bumbling ‘Boys. After seeing the numbers that our PLAYBOOK. com database shook up, ‘tomorrow will be too late’ to play this one as we’re certain it will move quickly off the three. For starters, the Cowboys are a determined 6-0 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS losses and 9-1 ATS at home in October off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win. Phillips, himself, is a confi dent 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS with double-division revenge exact, including 3-0 SU and ATS with Dallas. Our database also surrendered this little darling: Monday night home teams that won 12 or more games the previous season are 13-1 SU and ATS their last 14 appearances. And speaking of Monday night, the G-Men are just 1-5 ATS as ‘hound dogs’ on this day of the week. Don’t forget that we also have a double ‘inside-out’ stat at work tonight as the Giants were outgained in last week’s win over Detroit while Dallas won their ‘ITS’ battle in the loss at Minnesota. In fact, the ‘Boys are now 5-0 ITS yet only 1-4 SU this season – go figure. Word has it that Phillips brought in a couple of retired zebras to work with the team during practice this week to iron out the bevy of mistakes and penalties that have plagued them all season. Let’s hope for Wade’s sake it works. Otherwise, he’ll be cashing pension checks along with them. No ‘Heartbreak’ tonight in the Big D. ‘Boys in a rout.

3* Philadelphia over TENNESSEE by 7
Whether its Kevin Kolb or Michael Vick barking the signals, the Eagles express continues to roll on. Now back where Andy Reid likes it best – on the road – they tackle the Titans off their impressive Monday night win over Jacksonville. That’s pretty much good news for Philly fanatics and bad news for Rocky Toppers with Tennessee 0-6-1 ATS off a Monday night game. The Green Birds chip in at 7-0 ATS as dogs when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS wins and are also a mindblowing 13-0 ATS as non-division road dogs off a pair of non-division contests. With the Titans currently riding a 0-10-1 ATS train as a home favorites against opponents off back-to-back wins, we’ll take anything that’s offered up with America’s Birds. Eagles continue to soar.

5* Georgia over KENTUCKY by 14
We hate to bite the hand that fed us last week as the Wildcats delivered our Perfect System Game of the Year, but the shoe is on the other paw this week. We’ve constantly shared the numbers behind Mark Richt’s success on other team’s fi elds and with star WR A.J. Greene now in the lineup, the feeling here is the Dawgs are back and barking. A Richt number we need to point out this week is his 6-1 SU and ATS mark away as a dog or favorite of less than seven points with revenge (Georgia lost to Kentucky, 34-27, in their home fi nale last season as 9.5-point favorites, despite outgaining the ‘Cats, 487-260). Another number worth mentioning is this little beauty that could only come from our PLAYBOOK.com database: in Game Eight matchups involving a 3-4 team visiting a 4-3 conference host, the visitor is 17-4 ATS when they are allowing less than 31 PPG on the season. If that’s not a big enough bone, chew on this: the Wildcats will likely feel the ‘wrath of Spurrier’ as teams who knock off his Gamecocks are 2-10-1 ATS at home the following game, including 0-7-1 ATS when hosting an avenging foe. Throw in KY’s jelly-like 3-10 SU and ATS record at home as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points versus a conference foe with revenge and you can further understand who we’re backing in this battle of ‘Cats and Dawgs. UGA VIII improves to 2-0! (Editor’s note: Jaybird The Bulldog, our Georgia insider who recommended a play on Vanderbilt last week – Dawgs destroyed ‘em, 43-0 – has been placed on administrative leave and relocated to a witness protection program.)

4* NORTHWESTERN over Michigan St by 6
The fi rst trip outside the state of Michigan this season could spell trouble for unbeaten Sparty. Whereas there is no way that Iowa looks past Wisconsin, Michigan State just may have one eye on that October 30th showdown with the Hawkeyes. And who could blame them? Despite the Wildcats’ recent series success (5-1 ATS last six), the Spartans are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four visits to Evanston. Northwestern’s home clunker to Purdue two weeks ago may also have State feeling a little carefree about this trip. Our PLAYBOOK. com database says Mark Dantonio’s troops need to be concerned, very concerned. For starters, the Wildcats are a well-coached 7-1 ATS with rest, 7-2 ATS in Game Seven and 6-2 ATS as dogs with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 0-3 ATS after tangling with the Zooks, 1-4 ATS as conference road favorites of more than four points and 8-16 SU and ATS away versus conference revenge. Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald, while making a bad favorite (5-16 ATS), has been the cat’s meow as a dog, posting a solid 18-12 mark, including 11-4 ATS when taking single digits. The Spartans spoiled a perfect Late-Phone card (3-1, +6.7 units) for us last Saturday with their second-half rally over Illinois. Expect a noon swoon this week as Sparty’s last eight games outside of the Great Lakes State has resulted in six SU losses. We’re ‘Wild’ about the formidable hosts

3* LSU over AUBURN by 6
With Alabama dotting both of these squads’ November schedules, this may not be a one-and-done situation for the afternoon’s loser – but it will put them on the outside looking in concerning a BCS title appearance. And while this game may seem to favor Heisman-hopeful QB Cam Newton and the high-powered hosts, we think laying a touchdown in a game of this magnitude is ridiculous. For openers, we refuse to trust favorites in big games that own 126 yards the worse defense. And while we rarely trust Les Miles, the LSU head coach – to his credit – is 7-2 SU in games when both teams arrive undefeated, allowing just 10.3 PPG in those contests and no more than 21 points in any game. Our database also points out that: from Game Eight out, matchups of undefeated teams fi nd the dog 20-8-1 ATS, including 17-4-1 ATS if they allow less than 15 PPG. We should also point out that the Baton Rouge Bengals are 10-5 ATS as conference road dogs, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS versus a foe that allows 16 or more PPG. In addition, the Auburn Felines have dropped seven of the last nine at home in this series. If this game were played at night, it may be a different story as Aubbie is 24-4 SU under the lights of late but this mid-afternoon start nullifi es any home cookin’. Put the shades on and enjoy this battle of unbeaten SEC powers. You can grab the points in this tale of two Tigers, but you may not need ‘em as we believe that LSU will be the last Cat standing.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

N Carolina over MIAMI FLA by 6
For the second time this season, Hurricanes’ HC Randy Shannon is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER. Unfortunately for the Miami faithful, it’s not like being the returning champion on ‘Jeopardy’ as Shannon’s negative numbers once again come into play. The likeable head coach has felt the wrath of Miami fans for years and his latest statement has even us shaking our heads. “For whatever reason, it’s tough to play at Duke,” said Shannon as his ‘Canes left Durham with a lethargic 28-13 straight up, no cover, victory. Huh? It appears no one else fi nds that trip to be as much trouble: the Blue Devils are an accommodating 13-51 SU at home since 2000, including 4-37 in conference play. Besides the numbers mentioned in the teaser, Shannon is also an unreliable 4-12 ATS as a home favorite of less than 24 points off an ATS loss, including 2-8 ATS in ACC affairs. To make matter worse, he is also a winless 0-3 SU and ATS against Butch Davis, losing all three to his former boss as – you guessed it – the favorite. Much like the previously-mentioned Hokies, the Heels are riding a 4-0 SU and ATS win skein after starting the season 0-2… the difference being there will be no letdown tonight in South Florida. The generous points are not necessary as the teacher, who is already a moneymaking 18-9 ATS off a double-digit ATS win, one-ups the pupil for a fourth straight time. A live dog on tonight’s card. What is North Carolina!

POINTWISE

SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 2
DALLAS over New York Giants RATING: 3
GREEN BAY over Minnesota RATING: 4
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 4
CLEVELAND over New Orleans RATING: 5

BAYLOR over Kansas State RATING: 1
NORTH CAROLINA over Miami-Fla RATING: 1
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Rice RATING: 2
OREGON over Ucla RATING: 3
CINCINNATI over South Florida RATING: 4
BOISE STATE over Louisiana Tech RATING: 4
GEORGIA TECH over Clemson RATING: 5
IOWA over Wisconsin RATING: 5

POWER SWEEP

4* SEATTLE over Arizona
ARZ is 6-1 SU and ATS vs SEA and are 6-2 ATS off a bye. They were the 1st team to score 30 pts in a game without a rushing or receiving TD since 1993. ARZ has been outgained 400-203 in its L4 games and even with their win vs NO they’ve been outscored 31-18 on avg. Against NO they turned 4 TO’s turned into 21 pts. While Hall does deserve to be commended for his moxie, he only had 168 yds (63%) with an int while being sacked 4 times (19 total allowed). Hall now has to travel to the loudest venue in the NFL at Qwest Field. While SEA has been outgained 391-257 at home TY, they’ve won both games by an avg score of 29-13 (+4 TO’s). Despite constant churning of its roster (34 new players since Dec), SEA is 5th in sacks overall earning 1 every 12.5 att’s. ARZ will try to establish Wells and Hightower but SEA is only allowing 70 ypg rush (2.9). The rushing combo of Lynch/Forsett combined for 111 yds (4.1) and kept Hasselbeck from forcing plays as he didn’t throw an int for the 1st time in 10 games. SEA is simply a different team at home with the 12th man on its side to disrupt its foes and are the play here. FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 Arizona 10

3* ATLANTA over Cincinnati
CIN returns from its bye week (0-4 SU and ATS on road) with questions about its identity and QB Palmer. They are better suited to being a power rush team behind Benson (81 ypg 3.9) with a power OL that helped them finish 9th LY on the ground. They’ve forced the development of the pass attack due to their additions but mistakes by Palmer (5 TO’s) have cost them the L2 games. He has been held to under 60% completions and 6.0 ypa in 3 games TY (2-1 SU and ATS) but have been held to 21 pts or less in 4 straight games. Defensively they have struggled to generate a pass rush (#29) with 1 sack every 29 att’s and lost DE Odom (susp) for 4 games. ATL was embarrassed at PHI LW as they gave up 3 TD’s on plays of 31 yds or longer. Ryan struggled to get into a rhythm (250 yds 55% 2-1) and the Eagles keyed in on the run game holding them to 65 yds rushing (3.4). They are a very different team at home (401-265 yd edge TY), 8-0-1 as a HF of 6 or less and 13-1-1 ATS off a SU loss. We’ll side with an angry home team off a tough loss vs a road team with a QB that is a shell of his former self. FORECAST: ATLANTA 28 Cincinnati 14

2* New England (+) over SAN DIEGO
Including playoffs, this is the 6th meeting in 7 years with the dog going 3-2 ATS. This is NE’s 1st West Coast game since a B2B stint at SEA and OAK (2-0 SU 1-1 ATS) in 2008. While SD has the #1 and #1 units (-3 TO’s) vs NE’s #10 and #28 units (+2 TO’s) they’ve faced some softer foes. None of the teams SD has taken on have an offense ranked higher than 18th (KC) and 3 teams are ranked 22nd or lower. NE has faced 3 teams ranked 16th or better on offense and 4 defenses rated 14th or better. NE also has a massive special teams edge here (#4 vs #32). LW without Moss NE rallied from 10 down to beat a tougher and healthier BAL defense. Freshly acquired WR Branch pulled in the same amount of rec’s (9 rec 10.9) as Moss did in 4 games (9 rec 15.4). SD was stunned by STL LW getting outgained 206-87 in the 1H with Rivers getting sacked 7 times. SD was already thin at WR as Naanee (hamstring) sat out and WR Floyd (hamstring) and TE Gates (sprained left ankle) were also KO’d. This means the Chargers could be without 48% of its rec’s (66) and 46% of its offense (1184 yds) here. We’ll side with the healthier road team that has played a better quality of foes so far TY. FORECAST: New England (+) 31 SAN DIEGO 27

2* Pittsburgh over MIAMI
This is the 4th meeting in 7 years with the Steelers improving to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after beating MIA 30-24 as a 3 pt AF in the season finale LY. Henne left the game at the half with an eye injury. The Dolphins did play PIT pretty even in the 1H being outgained 201‑176 and were only down 17-10. They were outrushed 202 (5.6) to 99 (4.0) on the day though. Both teams were in favorable spots LW with Roethlisberger getting a preseason worth of snaps vs CLE LW. While Roethlisberger was efficient (257 yds 59% 3-1) the coaching staff stayed true to its word and had a balanced attack (35 run/27 pass). MIA was in a great situation LW off a bye but were taken to OT by a GB team without 7 opening day starters. MIA only had a 22 yd edge but outrushed GB 150 (3.8) to 76 (3.6). Henne (231 yds 59% 2-1) wasn’t as crisp was he should have been. MIA had an int, 3 punts, 2 FG and were SOD between their 1st and 2nd TD’s. PIT’s #1 rush defense has only given up one 20 yd run TY and their aggressive discipline play easily handled CLE’s Wildcat attempts. PIT’s #6 defense is back to playing tough physical football and will be the key to the win here. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 24 MIAMI 13

4* CLEMSON over Georgia Tech
The dog is 18-3 ATS in this series. The home team is 3-8 ATS. Twelve of the L/15 have been decided by 5 or less. GT has now won 4 in a row SU and Johnson beat Swinney twice LY. The first was at home in the reg ssn, 30-27 (-5) and the 2nd was in the ACC Title game, 39-34 (E) and they had FD and ydg edges in both. This is Swinney’s 3rd try at the GT option and GT avg 317 ypg rush (5.6) in ‘09 but in ‘08 here CU held them to 207 ypg (4.0). After scoring just 44 pts the L/10Q’s, CU broke out a 31-7 win over MD, snapping a 3 gm losing streak. The Tigers were actually outgained 350-213 and outFD’d 18-13 but were helped by an 87 yd KR TD by Ellington and a 61 yd IR TD by Brewer. LW GT was only up 14-7 at HT but scored TD’s on its 1st 3 poss of the 3Q to break it open en route to a 42-14 win over Middle Tenn (415-316 yd edge, outFD’d 22-19). QB Nesbitt led in rushing again (4 of 6 gms #1 rusher) and he leads the ACC with 649 (4.5). BB Allen is #2 ACC with 600 (6.1). Despite GT’s recent success vs CU, we like the matchup of CU’s athletic front 7 vs the GT option here. A great defensive matchup would make for a great 5H. FORECAST: CLEMSON 31 Georgia Tech 17

3* Georgia over KENTUCKY
LY UK (+9’) rallied from a 20-6 halftime deficit and trailed 27-13 with 7:03 left 3Q but pulled out a 34-27 win. GA had a 4-0 TO deficit and WR Green was out with a shldr inj. GA’s 487 yds of off were the most in a loss to an SEC tm in Richt’s 9Y at GA. Last time here GA escaped 42-38 (-13). Richt’s seat has cooled some after B2B blowout wins over SEC foes incl LW’s 43-0 win over Vandy (547-140 yd edge) which gave us a 4H LPS Winner. QB Murray is avg 236 ypg (62%) with a 12-3 ratio. RB Ealey rushed for career high 123 yds LW (369, 4.8 TY). UK is off a huge 31-28 come from behind (trailed 28-10 late 3Q) upset of #10 SC. UK QB Hartline is greatly improved over LY (256 ypg, 68%, 13-3). RB Locke (574, 5.3) DNP LW (shldr inj, CS). UK WR Cobb is one of the best athletes in the SEC (712 ttl yds). In the 3 gms since WR Green (279, 17.4) ret’d, GA has avg 22 ppg more than the 1st 3 gms vs BCS foes while he was susp and while historically they may have looked past Kentucky in this spot, their poor start ensures they won’t. FORECAST Georgia 38 KENTUCKY 24

3* IOWA over Wisconsin
Iowa is 7-1 ATS in the battle for the Heartland Trophy holding UW to just 108 rush ypg (2.8). Hawks trailed 10-3 at HT LY but rallied to a 20-10 win as they held the Badgers to just 58 yds in the 2H. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS as an AD under Iowa alum HC Bielema. This is the last reg ssn matchup scheduled of this rivalry as the 2 will be in different divisions starting in ‘11. Despite 523-384 yd and 31-21 FD deficits opportunistic Iowa won in Ann Arbor for the 1st time S/’02 by taking advantage of 4 UM TO’s which set up 14 pts. The Hawks also had a blk’d FG and the Wolves lost a fmbl at the Iowa 15 as QB D-Robinson (shoulder) was KO’d in the 3Q. QB Stanzi is #3 NCAA pass eff (246, 68%, 13-2) and RB Adam Robinson has 623 yd (4.8). Iowa is #1 B10 is rush D (84 ypg, 2.9). The Badgers beat a #1 team for the 1st time S/’81 upsetting OSU, 31-18. UW led 14-0 less than 5:00 into the gm and shook off an OSU rally which cut it to 21-18 early 4Q as the Badgers responded with drives of 73/10pl (TD) and 45/7pl (FG) to put it away. RB Clay (796, 5.9) became the 1st RB in 29 gms to run for 100 yd on OSU and is supported by super quick Fr White (560, 7.0). UW allows 115 rush ypg (3.6). Bielema was 0-4 vs Top 10 teams until LW and will find it difficult to focus on the Hawks after LW’s big win. FORECAST: IOWA 33 Wisconsin 17

2* OHIO ST over Purdue
OSU had 177 (62%) of their 287 yds come in the 4Q LY vs PU but their comeback fell short as their last drive was SOD at P38 w/2:16 left as Pryor was sk’d 5x and had 4 TO. The home tm and favorite are 8-3 ATS. PU is 2-17 SU and 6-18 ATS the L/6Y vs ranked opp (wins vs OSU LY and NW TY) but are 4-1-1 ATS vs OSU with 2 outright upsets. PU has moved to the read option under QB Henry who is 1 of the fastest Boilers and he has accounted for 399 yd and 5 TD in his 2 starts as PU has run for 200+ in 5 straight gms for the 1st time S/’73. DE Kerrigan is #2 NCAA tfl and has terrorized Pryor the L/2Y with 15 tkl, 5 sk, 2 tfl, 2 FF and 1 FR. #1 OSU trailed Wisky 21-0 early 2Q before rallying but ultimately came up short vs the Badgers. UW sk’d a gimpy Pryor 4x and limited him to 212 yd (14-28 pass). OSU all’d a 100 yd rusher for the 1st time in 29 gms LW but are still #12 NCAA rush D (94, 3.0). OSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS the L/8 involving an opp they lost to the previous ssn (“revenge”) and is 12-3 ATS off a SU loss vs Tressel. FORECAST: OHIO ST 45 Purdue 10

2* LOUISVILLE over Connecticut
UC has won 3 str vs UL and has gone 4-1-1 ATS. The avg MOV in this series is 14 ppg and the HT is 3-1-1 ATS. LY UC turned 4 UL TO’s into 24 pts and won 38-25 (-13) with UL not attempting the xp after a TD on the final play. Prior to LY UC was outgained in each gm by an avg of 157 ypg. UC is fresh off a bye (Edsall 12-8 ATS off bye) while UL is off a 35-27 loss to Cincy in which RB Powell had a career high 209 rush (898, 7.8). UL QB Froman is avg 226 ypg (61%, 10-4). UC RB Todman has 761 (6.2) and their #55 off has been more productive since QB Endres (157 ypg, 60%, 5-2 ratio) took over 3 gms ago. UC was picked by some to win the BE in the pressn but comes in just 3-3 (0-1 in BE) while the supposedly rebuilding UL has played better than expected with the exact same record as UC. We like the enthusiasm HC Strong has brought to this program while Connecticut continues to be overrated after LY’s performance. FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 31 Connecticut 23

2* Nebraska over OKLAHOMA ST
NU was down 38-0 after 3Q’s vs OSU in the L/gm (‘07) and 114 (34%) of their 335 yds along w/14 pts came in the 4Q. NU is just 1-5 ATS vs OSU in B12 play. Pelini is 6-2 ATS as an AF (2-0 TY). NU was upset by a rested Texas squad who tweaked its offense during the bye for their 9th loss in 10 B12 meetings. UT’s D held QB Martinez (121, 57%, 3-3, 758 rush) to just 97 ttl yds before he was benched in the 3Q and the Huskers failed to score an off TD. NU is #1 NCAA pass eff D (117, 47%, 4-11 ratio) led by future NFL DC CB Amukamara. OSU jumped out to a 21-0 1Q lead over TT and didn’t look back winning in Lubbock for the 1st time S/’44 with a 32-21 FD and 583-392 yd edges. Triplets QB Weeden (#12 NCAA pass eff 328, 69%, 19-8), B12 rush leader RB Hunter (830, 6.2) and NCAA rec yd and scoring leader WR Blackmon (57, 16.8, 12 TD) power our #16 offense. NU is 5-3 ATS off a SU loss under Pelini and the Blackshirts give the Cowboys who have faced only 1 D in the NCAA’s top 87 in ttl D a reality check. FORECAST: Nebraska 41 OKLAHOMA ST 24

RED SHEET

North Carolina 31 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 27
Line opened at Miami minus 6, and is now minus 6½. Even the most casual of fans is well aware of the suspension problems faced by the 'Heels this season, & things quickly looked bleak, as the opened with a 30-10 deficit vs LSU. But they fought back, eventually losing 30-24, with a controversial ending preventing the outright win. That early corner turning has propelled the Tars to 4 straight wins & covers, & just 2 plays from standing 6-0 SU. In Yates, they have the perfect leader: 11 TD passes & only 1 pick. 'Canes still bit overpriced, with LW the perfect example: 7 takeaways, yet a spread loss (Duke). QB Harris' inconsistency not what UM needs. RATING: NORTH CAROLINA 89

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 44 - Central Michigan 20
Line opened at NoIllinois minus 10, and is still minus 10. We are normally reluctant to get into MAC plays, as we've been on the wrong side of many a shocking upset in that highly unpredictable conference. Perfect example is this game, as we pegged NIU easily on Pointwise, but decided not to step out as a rated play. However, we simply cannot dismiss their current overpowering run: not only 5-0 SU, but also 5-0 ATS, by 77½ pts. Try a 40-15 ppg edge in their last 4. Chips have been among our pets, but allowing 33 ppg in their current 4-game slide. RATING: NORTHERN ILLINOIS 89

EAST CAROLINA 49 - Marshall 17
Line opened at EastCarolina minus 12½, and is still minus 12½. This one seems almost too easy, & we usually run quickly away from such matches, as the oddsmakers are no fools. Thus another early week tabling, despite the fact that the Pirates are again making their presence known, especially when it comes to putting pts on the board, as they've moved to the #13 spot in the land in scoring, having reached 44 pts or more on 3 occasions, & taking the likes of SoMiss & NoCaroSt the past 2 wks. Dog the play in ECU games, but Herd ranks 112th & 96 in total "O" & "D". RATING: EAST CAROLINA 88

ILLINOIS 39 - Indiana 10
Line opened at Illinois minus 12, and is now minus 13½. Sometimes stats do lie, which may be the case with this Illini outfit. Check losing to mighty OhioSt, by a 24-13 score, while holding the Bucks under 300 yds. As a matter of fact, vs OhioSt, PennSt, & MichiganSt, the Illini have a combined 941-823 yd edge. By the way, Illinois covered that game against PennSt by 28½ pts. The Hoosiers have had their moments, behind the leadership of Chappell, but they rank 85th in rushing, 86th in passing, 83rd in total, & 89th in scoring "D" (38 ppg last 3 wks). Spot well within Illini's range. RATING: ILLINOIS 88

BOISE STATE 55 - Louisiana Tech 10
Obviously, no early line on this contest. We're still kicking ourselves for not stepping out with the Bulldogs in their 48-pt, 32-FD, 261-RY, 422-PY effort vs Idaho last week. But the fact is that LaTech has emerged as a premier host, while the Vandals' "D" is still a work in progress. Not the case, when 'Dogs take to road: 48-16 & 41-21 losses. Broncos keep doing it, & not just on offense (48 ppg), but also with a defense which ranks 1st, 5th, 1st, & 3rd in rushing, passing, total, & scoring. And the recent BCS snubbing only serves as an added motivational factor. RATING: BOISE STATE 88

SAN DIEGO 38 - New England 20
Line opened at SanDiego minus 3, and is still minus 3. The most disappointing team in the NFL? Altho the Cowboys surely pop to mind, as far as we are concerned, in the early going, that title belongs to these Chargers, who seem to be able to do what they want at home, only to flop as visitors, with the fact that the home team is not only 6-0 SU, but also 6-0 ATS, by 90 pts ATS! Try 38-13 & 41-10 wins in their 2 host roles, albeit vs Jags & Cards. Pats stand at 4-1 SU, but really haven't impressed since their opener, & have had the stat edge just twice. RATING: SAN DIEGO 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Northwestern, Baylor, BYU, Toledo - NFL: Seattle, Baltimore, Dallas (Monday)

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Fresno (-16 to -19½); OhioU (-1 to -3); Virginia (-21½ to -23½); Nebraska (- 3½ to -5½); Oregon (-20 to -21½); UConn (Pick to -1½); N'Western (+7½ to +6); Illinois (-12 to -13½); Auburn (-5 to -6½); Idaho (-21½ to -23); WashSt (+36 to +34½); Toledo (-10½ to -12); IowaSt (+23 to +21½) - NFL: None - TIME CHANGES: Baylor/KansSt 3:30; TexA&M/Kansas:7:00; Okla/Mo: 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: Probable: Ala WR Jones (hand); Ark QB Mallett (concussion); BG RB Geter (ankle); Mich QB Robinson (shoulder); Nev RB Taua (ankle); Oregon QB Thomas (shoulder); SanJose QB LaSecla (ribs); SoCaro WR Jeffrey (thigh); TexTech QB Potts (jaw); UTEP QB Vittatoe (ankle); VaTech QB Taylor (wrist), & RB Williams (hamstring) - Questionable: NoDame WR Floyd (hamstring); UCLA QB Prince (knee) - Doubtful: CentFla RB Harvey (knee); Kentucky RB/KR Locke (shoulder); SoCaro RB Lattimore (ankle) - Out: AirForce RB Jew (leg); Arizona QB Foles (knee); Out for Season: Indy RB Willis (groin) - NFL: Probable: Dallas QB Romo (thumb); Detroit QB Stafford (shoulder) - Questionable: Indy RB Addai (shoulder); J'Ville QB Garrard (concussion); Oakland RB McFadden (hamstring) - Doubtful: Carolina WR Smith (ankle); Oakland QB Gradkowski (shoulder); Philly QB Vick (ribs), & WR Jackson (concussion).....