Newsletters Oct 28 - Nov 1

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

MIAMI

Team trends present a compelling technical case for visiting Miami when the Dolphins travel to Paul Brown Stadium for a Sunday battle against Cincinnati. Note Miami’s stellar 14-4 spread mark its last 18 on the road for HC Tony Sparano, while the Bengals have dropped seven straight spread decisions as home chalk & 18 of their last 23 in that role.

WAKE FOREST

Series and team trends indicate Wake Forest is worth a look when it travels to College Park for a Saturday ACC battle at Maryland. Note that the Deacs have covered the last 2 and 8 of the last 10 in this series. As for the Terps, they’ve been one of the nation’s most unreliable favorites, dropping 7 of their last 9 as home chalk vs. FBS foes and 4-16 their last 20 overall as chalk against FBS teams. Wake is also a featured College Coach as Underdog recommendation with HC Jim Grobe.

OREGON STATE

October has been a good month for Oregon State since HC Mike Riley returned to Corvallis in 2003, as the Beavers are 21-7 vs. the number in games during the month. Which is good news October 30 when OSU plays host to Cal. Note the Beavers have won and covered the last 3 and 4 of the last 5 vs. the Golden Bears, and Riley’s teams are 34-18 their last 52 games on the board. As always, OSU is a featured Coach and Pointspread recommendation with Riley.

UTAH

It’s hard not to side with Utah when it travels to Air Force for a Saturday MWC battle. The Utes are unbeaten straight-up and vs. the line their last ten games (nation’s-best 9-0-1 vs. line that span) and continue to dominate, as their sparkling +17.00 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark over their last two games indicates. Meanwhile, note the Falcons have dropped their last five spread decisions in 2010.

HAWAII

They’re hot, alright. We’re talking about Jim Leahey’s Hawaii Warriors, who have won and covered five straight and are 7-1 vs. the line in 2010. That’s all bad news Saturday night for visiting Idaho, which had lost and failed to cover five straight vs. UH prior to last year’s Vandals win at Moscow. Moreover, the Warriors’ +23.75 “AFS” (Away from Spread) mark is the nation's second-best over the last two weeks. UH has also covered 11 of its last 14 on the board and all four at Aloha Stadium this year.

OHIO

Look out for Ohio, which has won its last 4 SU and takes a 5-game cover streak into Peden Stadium when hosting Sun Belt visitor ULLafayette for a Saturday intersectional. The Bobcats are also a featured Coach and Pointspread recommendation with HC Frank Solich, who has delivered consistent spread success in Athens since arriving as Ohio’s HC in 2005 (63% vs. line as host since). Ohio has also posted a solid +14.75 "AFS" (Away from Spread) its last two games. On the other hand, the reeling Ragin’ Cajuns have dropped their last three vs. the line on the road vs. non-Belt opposition.

CKO

11* OKLAHOMA over Colorado

Bad time for Colorado (loser of its last two road games by a combined 78-7 score) to travel to Norman. The Oklahoma defense is being battered in the media for allowing 36 points at Missouri just when another BCS title shot had appeared on the distant horizon. Thus, the limited Buffalo attack can look for no mercy from the Sooners co-defensive coordinators Brent Venables & Bobby Jack Wright, who are trying to boost the OU resistance by infusing more raw speed in the likes of true frosh LB/SS Corie Nelson, true frosh CB Aaron Colvin, and RS frosh nickel-back Tony Jefferson. That group has now played its way through half the schedule and should start paying dividends vs. foes that lack many dimensions on offense (such as CU). On the attack, HC Bob Stoops is determined to increase the pace of his burgeoning no-huddle attack, with soph QB Landry Jones becoming more assertive and with speed-burning frosh RB Roy Finch getting more carries.

10* SAN DIEGO STATE over Wyoming

MWC sources report that bowl-hungry 5-2 San Diego State (no postseason since ‘99!) has been eagerly awaiting this rematch with Wyoming after Aztecs blew 27-6 fourth-Q lead in 30-27 home loss LY. So, we are urged to lay fair price vs. wallowing 2-6 Wyoming squad that has seriously regressed after upsetting Fresno State 35-28 in LY’s New Mexico Bowl. SDS’s highly-productive jr. QB Lindley able to work play action, with dazzling RB Hillman (849 YR) finding room to roam vs. soft Cowboy front 7 yielding 5.4 ypc. And scouts tell us Aztecs’ swift 6th-year WR Sampson (34 catches; 19-yd. avg.), who had 2 TD catches vs. New Mexico, dropped a couple more sure scores in the chilly Albuquerque weather. On the other side, the vastly-improved Aztec stop (32 ppg LY; only 20 TY) figures to smother a staggering Cowboy attack that has failed to score a meaningful TD over the last 14 Qs! Look for Lobos crafty d.c. Rocky Long to dial up some of his patented blitz packages vs. Cowboys’ overburdened QB Carta-Samuels (only 5 TDP; sacked 18 times), lacking a reliable RB to keep the defense honest.

10* WASHINGTON ST. over Arizona St.

It takes a while for the wagering public to adjust perceptions of what was an especially good or bad team. The latter has applied lately to WSU, roadkill for most of the last two seasons, but now competent enough to provide good pointspread value, evidenced by recent handy covers vs. bowl-bound Oregon, Arizona and Stanford. Oddsmakers are slowly adjusting for the Cougars’ current 4-game spread win streak, but there’s still plenty of room in this week’s number at ASU for Wazzu to reward its backers again. Word from Tempe is that HC Dennis Erickson’s future becoming increasingly dicey after last week’s ugly loss at Cal, and Sun Devils’ problems compounded by QB Threet’s concussion & backup Osweiler’s sore back (3rd-stringer Szakacsy a poor fit for ASU’s hurry-up spread). Backdoor open for Wazzu with rapidly-maturing soph QB Tuel (4 TDP at Stanford) firing away until final gun.

10* OREGON over Southern California

The fact that Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls and was leapfrogged by Auburn for the top spot provides some extra incentive for the Ducks (as if they needed it). Southern Cal is just 8-5 SU in its last 13 games overall, and 2-6 last 8 vs. the points at home. Oregon leads the nation in total offense, and if there’s an area where this season’s edition of USC’s football team has come up short, it is on defense. In 2008 the Trojans led the nation defensively. This season USC is 112th in pass defense and 87th in total defense. Oregon has balance offensively, as RB LaMichael James leads the country in rushing, while QB Darron Thomas is 18th in passing efficiency. The Ducks take care of the ball and generate takeaways (1st in TO ratio), allow just 16 ppg, and are 7th in pass efficiency defense. USC QB Matt Barkley is having a fine year, but this is the toughest defense he’s faced. Trojans just 3-3 SU last 6 at the Coliseum.

10* TENNESSEE over San Diego

It is hard not to like the team that has it together (Tennessee) when it’s an underdog vs. a team that is clearly still trying to get it together (San Diego). That is even more the case when the team that has it together is also rugged in the pits. Such is the case for the Titans, with its strong OL (tackles Michael Roos & David Stewart are among the best in the league). With opponents loading up to contain RB Chris Johnson (662 YR) after his 2K season in 2009, the Tennessee passing game is beginning to blossom, whether it’s Vince Young or Kerry Collins at QB. WR Kenny Britt (7 TDC) has emerged as the deep threat the team has lacked, and clutch TE Bo Scaife has avoided injury. Moreover, the Titan defensive front has been bolstered by veterans Justin Babin and Dave Ball (6 sacks each). And, LY’s injured secondary is now healthy, further augmented by rookie CB Alterraun Verner, who plays much bigger than his “5-10” height. As for the favored Chargers, if they don’t have concerns at receiver, OL, LB, STs, and the front office, you’ve got a scoop.

NINE-RATED GAMES:LOUISVILLE (+9½) at Pittsburgh—HC Charlie Strong has boosted the Cardinal defense; RB Bilal Powell (1003 YR) is having a breakthrough year on offense...NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-8½) at Western Michigan—Balanced Northern now owns six straight covers; Western has fallen short vs. each of its quality opponents...UCF (-7½) vs. East Carolina—Central Florida, easily the best defensive team in the C-USA, continues to develop on offense...NEVADA (-25½) vs. Utah State—Nevada an excellent home favorite; Wolf Pack can afford no more missteps in its hopes to win the WAC...NEW ORLEANS (+1) vs. Pittsburgh (NFL)—One last chance for New Orleans to party; Sharper is back on defense, and Brees will bounce back from last week.

TOTALS: UNDER (37) in the Carolina-St. Louis Game—Improved Ram defense allowing only 13 ppg at home; Panthers the lowest-scoring team iun the NFL...OVER (44½) in the Buffalo-Kansas City Game—Bills have gone “over” four straight with QB Fitzpatrick at the controls; don’t ask about the defense (34 or more in five straight games).

MONEY MAKER

OLE MISS +7 OVER AUBURN

Auburn escaped with a win and a cover last week against LSU, though the Bayou Bengals held them to their second lowest point total of the season. On the downside for LSU, however, is the fact that they allowed Auburn 440 yards of rushing. Credit to QB Cameron Newton, who is one of the more unstoppable offensive forces in college football but we’re thinking that Auburn is getting overvalued by the public. Last year, the Tigers were a +6 home underdog against OleMiss. This year they’re a -7 road favorite. That’s a 13 point swing in the span of one year based essentially on one player or, more appropriately, the hype surrounding one player. Auburn’s schedule has set up very nicely for them—this is only their third road game of the season. Their struggles in the first two don’t exactly justify making them a road favorite of this price. The Tigers won both of their previous road games at Mississippi State and Kentucky—by 3 points. If they struggled in Starkville and Lexington, there’s no reason to expect things to get any easier for them at Ole Miss—and particularly now that they’ve become the #1 ranked BCS team and a public darling. They’ve got a target on their back, and if anything it’s just going to get tougher for them here on out. Ole Miss has a very deep and talented defensive line, so they’re a good matchup against Newton and the Auburn offense. They’ve also got their own excellent running quarterback in former Oregon starter Jeremiah Massoli. As we last week in our play on LSU, the Auburn defense is average at best. LSU didn’t have the offensive weapons to exploit the Tigers’ defensive vulnerabilities but Ole Miss does. The mainstream sports media will be yapping about what a big upset this is, but we look for the Rebels to win outright. OLE MISS BY 7 OVER AUBURN

AIR FORCE +7 OVER UTAH

Utah may be underrated in terms of where they should be ranked nationally, but they’re overvalued here. Horrible scheduling spot for the Utes, who must travel to face an opponent that is a tough stylistic matchup one week before the biggest game of their season—at home against #4 TCU. That’s followed by a big game at Notre Dame, so a ‘lookahead’ here is almost inevitable. Air Force has their own big game on deck—at rival service academy Army but it’s not quite the huge matchup that Utah has one week from now. Even if this was a better scheduling situation for the Utes we’d still look to play on Air Force. They’ve more than held their own in head to head play with Utah in recent years. Utah has won 10 of the last 15 meetings straight up, but the Falcons have covered 10 of the last 15. Obviously the recent meetings are the most significant last season, Utah was lucky to pull out a SU win in OT but failed to cover as +9 underdogs. Same story in 2008, when Air Force lost by 7 but covered at home. Utes didn’t defend the Falcons’ options particularly well last year allowing 254 yards on the ground and with their focus elsewhere they may have to be content with any kind of outright win. We’ll call it a Utah victory, but Air Force will be in this one throughout. UTAH BY 1 OVER AIR FORCE

OREGON -6’ OVER USC

There’s something of a mindset that this is a game with huge upset potential. We’re not buying it. We’ve been waiting for a good opportunity to play against this Oregon team and while we get the logic of playing against the #1 team in a meeting with a program with championship pedigree we’re still waiting for a better matchup. Were Pete Carroll still at USC we might feel differently, but we’re still not sold on Lane Kiffin’s coaching and particularly the defensive schemes of his dad, Monte Kiffin. Whether or not you think that the elder Kiffin is a good defensive coordinator or a beneficiary of reverse nepotism, the reality is that he’s not had any recent experience in trying to scheme to stop an option attack or even a solid rushing quarterback—let alone one as good as Oregon’s. The Trojans are off a solid all around game against California—though truth be told the Bears are down from recent years. In most of the other good defensive performances by USC this season has been in games against teams like Washington State where their superior talent was the primary factor. USC hasn’t been a good pointspread team in Pac 10 play (9-13 ATS since 2008) and were thumped by the Ducks in Eugene last season, losing 47-20. Oregon has improved significantly since then, while USC has been treading water at best. Just don’t think this current Trojans team has the personnel or tactics to slow down Oregon’s blur offense. OREGON BY 17 OVER USC

UNLV/TCU UNDER 55

TCU has a gap in talent here that lets them ‘name the score’—that justifies the huge price on Horned Frogs as road favorites. We just don’t know if they have the motivation to drop a huge number on an overmatched UNLV side with that big matchup against Utah on deck. We have no confidence in the Rebels’ offense and particularly against a defense of this class, so that keeps us on the sidelines in terms of making a play on UNLV. We will take a position on the total TCU can win this game easily with their defense alone. They shut out UNLV 41-0 at home last year and we don’t know if the Rebels offense is any better this year. They’ve scored only 10 points in each of their last two games, and neither defense (Colorado State and West Virginia) is anywhere near this class. TCU has gone UNDER in 5 of their 7 games this year and 11 of their last 12 October games. We look for a similar score as last year—UNLV will be lucky to get on the board as this one goes UNDER the total TCU BY 30 OVER UNLV

NELLY

RATING 5 KANSAS CITY (-8) over Buffalo
RATING 4 TAMPA BAY (+3) over Arizona
RATING 3 DETROIT (-2) over Washington
RATING 2 CAROLINA (+3) over St. Louis
RATING 1 SEATTLE (-1) over Oakland

RATING 5 OREGON STATE (-2½) over California
RATING 4 WAKE FOREST (+5) over Maryland
RATING 3 MARSHALL (-3½) over Utep
RATING 2 INDIANA (+3) over Northwestern
RATING 2 FLORIDA (-3) over Georgia
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA (-24) over Colorado
RATING 1 UNLV (+35) over Tcu

PLAYBOOK

5* SAN DIEGO over Tennessee by 14

Three straight win and covers, all by 14 or more points ATS has the Titans doing the Tennessee two-step. They dance out onto the road knowing teams in this role are just 1-6 ATS as dogs. They also take on a slumping San Diego squad that has cleaned up in this series, going 6-0 SU and ATS. The Chargers have also dominated the AFC South, going 15-3 ATS since its inception, including 9-1 SU and ATS at home. All good news for a team that needs a win like Proctor needs Gamble. There is a lot to be said for backing teams riding a three game SU and ATS losing streak but our best guess is none of them ranked No. 1 statistically on the both sides of the ball. Our database chimes in with this clincher: QB Philip Rivers is 22-4 SU and 20-5-1 ATS at home against sub .750 opponents as a starts in this league. With Tennessee having yet to top 345 yards in any game this season, we’ll plug into the numbers, and the value, as the Bolts break out in a big way today.

4* Green Bay over NY JETS by 6

With the Airplanes parked in the hangar last week, they return on a fi ve game SU and ATS win skein feeling mighty good about themselves. And why not? Coupled with last year’s 7-2 SU and ATS season ending run to the Super Bowl, Rex Ryan’s hard knockers are enjoying life in the NFL these days. Before they get too immersed in their sense of self, though, they should be aware of the fact that they’ve been outyarded in four of six games this season and are just 2-4 SU and ATS as home favorites of more than three points under the Lip. Meanwhile, the Packers check in 11-2 SU and 11- 1-1 ATS in games off a win against rested opposition during the regular season. They are also 9-7 SU and 13-3 ATS as road dogs of less than seven points under Mike McCarthy. It’s in games like this that egos need to be parked at the door. Crash landing at the New Meadowlands Stadium.

3* DETROIT over Washington by 11

Say what, a one-win team laying points into a winning team? Yes, you read it right. According to our database these teams are 10-3 SU and ATS in this role since 1990, including 8-0 SU and ATS minus three or less. With tech support on our side, we turn to the stat sheet where the Redskins are red-faced, having been outgained in EVERY GAME they’ve played under Mike Shanahan, allowing season-high or 2ndhigh yards to fi ve opponents. Just 1-5 ATS in games against rested foes and 0-4 ATS themselves in games before taking a blow, look for the Hogs to slop it up again today. Only this time they get outyarded and pay the price as the Lions improve to 6-0 ATS in games against non-division foes off a win under head coach Jim Schwartz. As Tigerwould say – just lay it.

5* AIR FORCE over Utah by 8

We have to admit, we’ve been waiting for this one. In fact, this really has all the makings of our Newsletter ‘Best Bet of the Year’. It’s not – as that will come later in the season, but this winning home dog more than amply fi ts the bill. While we realize that Utes have yet to lose a game either SU or ATS, we must point out their schedule to date. Their opponents’ 10-38 SU record versus FBS foes this season would make Hostess proud. While Utah did beat Pitt in overtime to open the season, this is its fi rst test in almost two months and fi rst real road exam. To make matters worse, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are looking dead ahead to a showdown with TCU next week and they haven’t been very good (0-3 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins) before dining on Frog legs. The Utah head coach, himself, is just 8-17-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 12 points. Series history also backs the Force as the Falcons have covered fi ve of the last six, including each of the last three. We should also mention that Utah is 5-6 SU in their 11 visits to Colorado Springs, with none of their wins coming by more than seven points. It gets even better as Air Force HC Troy Calhoun is a spotless 3-0 ATS at home versus undefeated opposition and his Flyboys are 6-2 ATS at home off back-to-back road games and 6-1 ATS at home with conference revenge. That Mountain West revenge comes from last season when the Falcons lost 23-16 in overtime at Salt Lake City despite holding the Utes to a season-low 267 yards. With all that being said, the clincher still comes from our powerful PLAYBOOK.com database: since 1980, Game Eight or greater undefeated conference road favorites off a SU win of 28 or more points are 4-15 ATS against an avenging opponent, including 0-7 ATS if the foe is off a SU loss of six or more points. We never like to ‘Force’ our hand, but this one sets up perfectly for a straight-up dog win. Falcons outright.

4* California over OREGON ST by 10

Our BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article tells us that the Beavers are ‘Out of Gas’ and this doesn’t look like the week that the tank will be fi lled. In fact, with all-everything WR/KR James Rodgers out for the season with a knee injury, the Oregon State engine is in serious need of repair. Don’t expect visiting Cal to provide a jumpstart as the Bears are looking to avenge a 17-point home loss from last season as 7-point favorites. Jeff Tedford’s bunch has held fi ve of seven foes to season-low yardage, including three of the last four, and that fi gures to be the case once again this afternoon as the Beavers enter with an unimpressive 1-5 ‘ITS’ mark, allowing 114 YPG more than they are gaining. The Cal head coach is also a profi table 11-5 SU and ATS with revenge versus a foe off a SU loss. Simply put, in this ‘False Favorite’ affair, we’re going to grab the points with the better team as anothersputtering Homecoming favorite eats dust. Gentlemen, start your engine. There’s nothing plural about that statement as there’s only one working this afternoon in Corvallis.

3* INDIANA over Northwestern by 7

Talk about the mother of all let-downs. After a disappointing home loss to Purdue (their fi rst of the season) and a week off, Pat Fitzgerald appeared to have his Wildcats in bounce-back mode against the aforementioned Spartans – only to see a 17-0 lead vanish into the thin Evanston air. This encore now takes Fitz and company to Bloomington where a gang of vengeful Hoosiers awaits. The ‘Cats have never fared well in Hoosier-land (4-8 SU and ATS), including 1-3 ATS of late and now must deal with an Indiana bunch that blew a 28-3 lead in this matchup last year before falling 29-28. That loss sent them on a season-ending fi ve-game tailspin and kept them home for the holidays. A Hoosiers’ win today and one more in the fi nal four games should have them hitting the alleys. The numbers certainly favor the hosts as Indiana HC Bill Lynch is a solid 6-3 ATS at home with revenge while Fitzgerald is an undesirable favorite role. We’ve pointed out in previous issues that Fitzy is almost always worth a look when taking points (19-12 ATS) as we did last week but is a ‘play-against’ when laying them. The fi fth-year HC is 5-16 ATS as a favorite, including 1-10 ATS versus a foe off a double-digit loss. Yes, the Hoosiers are off a 30-point loss last week at Illinois but don’t let that fool you – they actually outgained the Illini, 388-289 (IU done in by fi ve turnovers). Look for the ‘Cats’ skein to hit three as Indiana’s been Jonesing for this re-match for over a year. No points needed as the Hoosiers get their revenge.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan St over IOWA by 6

The Spartans robbed us of a Late Phone and Newsletter Best Bet win with their criminal cover of Northwestern last week and we’re now convinced that they’re more charmed than Shannen Doherty, Alyssa Milano and the other witch sister. How else can you explain last week’s come-from-behind win, its OT victory over Notre Dame, HC Mark Dantonio coming back from a heart attack and neither sight nor sound of Ohio State on the November schedule! Combine that with talent (8-0 ‘ITS’ this season) and a magical season could be unfolding in Lansing. Sparty will probably need a little black magic this week considering they haven’t won in Iowa City since 1989 (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS). In fact, the Hawkeyes have dominated this series since Kirk Ferentz took over the Iowa reins, covering seven of nine. However, luck is once again on the State side as Captain Kirk treks to a 5-11-1 ATS mark as a favorite or a dog of less than seven points versus undefeated opposition, including 0-3 SU and ATS in conference play. Our database also points out that his Hawkeyes are a potion-less 1-10 ATS at home off an immediate home loss if they allowed less than 35 points in the loss while the Spartans are a confi dent 14-3 ATS away off a SU win with conference revenge, including 5-0 ATS the last fi ve. Even our Midweek Alert favors Michigan State as it pulled this rabbit out of its stats: in the two games involving common opponents (Michigan, Wisky), the Spartans hold a strong 211 net-yard advantage. Series history be damned Sparty strikes again! (trivia buffs: The third sister? Piper, played by Holly Marie Combs.)

POINTWISE

DETROIT over Washington RATING: 2
MIAMI over Cincinnati RATING: 3
ST LOUIS over Carolina RATING: 4
OAKLAND over Seattle RATING: 5
SAN DIEGO over Tennessee RATING: 5

HAWAII over Idaho RATING: 1
MIAMI-OHIO over Buffalo RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas St RATING: 2
NO ILLINOIS over Western Michigan RATING: 3
SO MISSISSIPPI over Uab RATING: 4
SOUTH CAROLINA over Tennessee RATING: 5
TULANE over Smu RATING: 5
MICHIGAN over Penn State RATING: 5

POWER SWEEP

4* SAN DIEGO over Tennessee - SD went into TEN LY on Christmas and thumped the Titans 42-17 as 3 pt AD. After punting on its first drive SD scored on 6 of its next 7 with a kneel down at the half. The Chargers logged 30-17 FD and 425-270 yd edges with RB Johnson earning 142 yds (6.8) of that. SD has a huge stat edge with the #1 and #1 units (-7 TO’s) vs TEN’s #23 and #15 units (+5 TO’s). TEN had a slow 1H vs PHI being outgained by 105 yds but took advantage of PHI keying on RB Johnson (66 yds 2.8) in the 2H. TEN logged a 236-129 yd edge scoring 27 pts in the 4Q knocking Kolb back to the bench after the bye. TEN’s defense has been chewed up on the road allowing 143 more yds, 18 more ypg rush yds (4.8 vs 3.5) and a 3-8 ratio (4-4 at home). They beat DAL and NYG teams who self destructed with penalties and KO’d a listless JAX team with QB issues. SD was very depleted in the receiving game LW and played NE to a standstill with a 363-179 yd edge. SD turned the ball over 4 times which NE converted into 10 pts for the difference. It’s unknown if SD will get WR’s Floyd or Naanee back (Gates 50 yds 12.5 LW) but SD spread the ball to 10 different receivers LW. At 2-5 SD is a much more desperate team will be getting good line value vs a TEN team that rallied behind Collins at home (Young - high ankle sprain) that now comes cross country looking ahead to a bye. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Tennessee 17

3* ARIZONA over Tampa Bay - This is only the 3rd meeting since realignment. These are bottom barrel statistical teams with ARZ’s #32 and #27 units (-7 TO’s) vs TB’s #22 and #22 units (+6 TO’s). Despite LW’s loss to SEA the Cardinals are starting to show an up arrow while the Bucs are showing a down arrow. ARZ has been hampered by poor QB play and Hall may not play here after with Anderson coming off the bench. After being slowed by a knee injury, Wells combined with Hightower for 113 yds (5.7), Fitzgerald (17 rec 10.5 L3) is starting to round into form, #2 WR Breaston was a game time decision but should play with #3 WR Doucet (2 rec 16.5) playing LW. TB was in a great situation LW getting a young dome team on the road in the heat and humidity (90˚ heat index) off a huge upset win. The Bucs have been a nice surprise TY thanks to solid play by QB Freeman (210 ypg 59% 7-3) but are starting to be found out. TB struggles to run the ball (22nd) at 97 ypg (4.0), are 31st vs the run (158 ypg 5.3) and have just 5 sacks TY (32nd) with 1 sack per 36 att. We recognize the risk of TB with a possible backdoor cover here as 5 of Freeman’s 7 wins have been 4Q comebacks. TB has had the benefit of 2 HG’s to try and mask the loss of Ctr Faine but ARZ will be keying in on the backup here. LW’s results gives solid line value here so we’ll side with a more experienced overall home team vs a very young TB team here. FORECAST: ARIZONA 24 Tampa Bay 16

2* ST LOUIS over Carolina - The Rams have dropped the L/3 meetings being outscored 62-20 and in their L/meeting here (2007) were outgained 387-238 including 186-76 rushing. Interesting dynamic with the Panthers getting their first win of the year LW after trailing 20-13 in the 4Q while STL was looking for just their 3rd road win in 3 yrs (now 2-19 SU L/21) but blew a 17-6 lead in the 1 pt loss to TB. After throwing for 308 yds (68%) with a 2-1 ratio LW it looks like the Panthers will go with QB Moore the rest of the season as they try to turn the corner. CAR clearly benefitted from playing a SF team that had a road trip to London on deck. The 49ers QB Smith went out on the first drive of the 2H and SF with backup Carr proceeded with just 22 total yds on their next 3 drives. Rams QB Bradford has been efficient TY despite injuries to the WR position. After having a 6-8 ratio in the first 5 gms Bradford has protected the ball better with a 3-0 ratio the L/2. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS in domes with plenty of experience due to ATL and NO but STL has won 3 straight SU/ATS TY at home with wins over much better competition in WAS, SEA and SD and get their 4th win on the season (just 3 the L/2 years combined) in a surprisingly higher scoring game. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 30 Carolina 20

2* Miami (+) over CINCINNATI - This is the 3rd meeting since realignment with the road team covering both. MIA is 12-3 ATS as an AD under Sparano while CIN is 0-6 ATS as a HF. CIN came off the bye looking to avenge a pair of B2B losses but were outgained 299-143 with 3 punts, a FG and missed FG to start. CIN went on to outgain ATL 326-153 in the 2H but 14 of their 22 3Q pts were off ATL TO’s. While Palmer finally had an elite game (412 yds 72% 3-0) the defense was no help as it gave up 153 yds rushing (5.1) and failed to pull in a sack and have just 6 TY. MIA played even with a better PIT Def LW with Henne having a solid day (257 yds 64% 1-0) despite the Steelers shutting down the run game (64 yds 3.0). MIA did a great job shutting down PIT’s run game (58 yds 2.1) but couldn’t stop Roethlisberger (302 70% 2-0). MIA has been a tough team on the road TY as while they’ve only outgained teams by 5 ypg, they haven’t made many mistakes with just 9 penalties and are +2 TO’s for a 3-0 SU and ATS record. While Henne is young and growing into his role, MIA has an identity on both sides of the ball, are much better rushing the QB (17 sacks, 1 every 11 pass att’s) and we’ll side with a quality dog here. FORECAST: Miami 30 (+) CINCINNATI 27

4* TEXAS over Baylor - Visitor is 10-4 ATS. BU has dropped 12 straight to UT with the avg loss by 39 ppg. LY BU was down 40-0 after 3Q’s being held to just 72 yds before a 14 pt/174 yd 4Q. BU covered here in ‘08 with Griffin at QB (45-21 +27) getting in the backdoor with a 40 yd TD run with 4:58 left. UT has been riding the emotional rollercoaster TY as after the upset win at Neb they returned home to lose to 20’ pt dog ISU, 28-21. UT had 25-16 FD and 440-335 yd edges but settled for FG’s of 21 and 23 yd when inside ISU’s 5, missed a 37 yd FG and Gilbert threw int’s at the ISU 20, 27 and 4 and fmbl’d at the Cyclones 46. Gilbert (#92 NCAA pass eff, 222, 60%, 6-8) has struggled along with an off which has had 11 TO’s in their 3 losses. UT is #17 pass eff D allowing just 138 pass ypg (#2 NCAA). BU is bowl eligible for the 1st time S/’95 after beating K St 47-42 with a 683-407 yd edge even though they all’d a TD with :15 left to let KSt in the backdoor. QB Griffin (297, 67%, 18-4, 384 rush) is #1 B12 ttl off and pass eff. With D’s keying in on Griffin RB Finley has exploded for 393 yd (9.8) L/2. UT is looking up at the Bears (who may still be celebrating) in the B12 standings for the 1st time ever. FORECAST: TEXAS 41 Baylor 20
3H UCF over E Carolina - UCF is off to its best start S/’98 after its convincing win at home vs Rice LW, a game in which they had substantial edges in both FD’s (22-12) and yds (391-229). Despite Marshall having a 186-167 yd edge at HT LW vs EC, the Pirates took control in the 2H in the 27 pt victory (-12’). EC did trail 7-0 LY but led 19-7 before all’g a late TD w/1:06 (UCF rec’d onside but was int’d on next play). Both tms hosted BCS foe NCSt with UCF being done in with a -5 TO deficit (308-239 yd edge) and the Pirates prevailing in OT despite blowing a 21-0 lead (496-476 yd edge). While UCF’s 1-8 mark vs EC is the worst among any CUSA member, they are on a 15-3 ATS run and have a big edge on the defensive side of the ball (#24-91) all’g them to find some success here as they push for the CUSA East Title. UCF’s offense will also come to life against a Pirates defense that has all’d 45 ppg on the road this year. FORECAST: UCF 34 E Carolina 17

3* USC over Oregon - USC comes into this meeting fresh off a bye (21-7 ATS) and in the belief that they could very well be undefeated along with UO here as they have lost 2 gms TY on last second FG’s (Wash and Stan). In their matchup prior to the bye, USC outgained Cal 602-245 in the 34 pt win (-2’). The UO off exploded yet again winning our Thurs Night Marquee vs UCLA posting 582 yds in the 47 pt (-26’) victory. In LY’s meeting in Eugene, USC suffered its 1st loss by over a TD S/’01 in the 47-20 defeat (-3) as UO put up 613 yds vs an overmatched USC def. While the fav is 7-2 ATS, a vengeful USC squad will be a HD for the 1st time S/’01 and with a 12-6 ATS record vs Top 10 foes, a 4th consec wk of the #1 team in the nation being upset could be in the forecast. Scary stepping in the Ducks way but USC showed their true colors by being tied with Stanford late in the 4Q and dominating Cal. FORECAST: USC 38 Oregon 37

2* Ohio St over MINNESOTA - OSU is 14-6 ATS in the series winning the L/6 by 26 ppg. The visitor is 10-4 ATS. OSU led 38-0 LY and Pryor avg 101 rush ypg (8.7) the L2Y vs UM. OSU is 11-0 SU at Minny (6-1 ATS) but this is their 1st visit to TCF Bank. OSU is 15-7 as an AF (0-2 TY). The Bucks avenged their only 2009 B10 loss LW flattening Purdue. OSU led 42-0 at HT and the Boilers didn’t have 100 yds until their last poss (489-118 yd edge). Pryor (#11 NCAA pass eff, 222, 66%, 18-6, 408 rush) left early 3Q as OSU emptied the bench. The Bucks are #11 pass eff D but have just 10 sk (#104 NCAA). UM’s Horton has lost his L/17 as a HC incl LW’s 33-21 loss to PSU in his debut as the interim HC. The gm’s turning point came mid2Q with UM trailing 14-7 as Weber was int’d in the EZ and ret’d 58 yd which set up a next play 42 yd TD pass for the Lions to take a 21-7 lead. Weber (245, 56%, 17-7) became the 5th B10 QB to pass 10,000 career yds and he has found a new #1 WR in McKnight (36, 15.1) who leads the league with 9 TD rec. UM’s D is last in the B10 in rush (194, 5.5), scoring (32) and sks (3, last in NCAA) and OSU heads into the bye with momentum.
FORECAST: Ohio St 44 MINNESOTA 13

2* Troy over ULM - The HT is 6-0 SU and has covered 5 in a row in the series. Troy lost its last trip here in ‘08 as a last play, 56 yd FG hit the crossbar, giving Troy its only SBC loss in the L/3Y as they are 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS in SBC gms. Each has played ASU and MT with Troy beating both (35-28, -10’, +55 yd vs ASU; 42-13, +3, +312 yd vs MT) and ULM losing both (34-20, +4, -83 yd vs ASU; 38-10, +12, -194 yd vs MT). Troy is off a bye after just getting by UL 31-24 as a 20’ pt HF. Troy has the off (#44-112) and def (#83-106) edges. QB Robinson is avg 290 ypg (64%) with a 12-6 ratio, while RB Harris leads with 300 (6.8). ULM QB Browning is avg 216 ypg (62%) with an 8-7 ratio and leads with 210 yds rush (2.1). No team is more rested than the Trojans having played just one game in the last 24 days. ULM pulled come-from-behind wins vs FAU and WKU and while exposed vs MTSt there is still plenty of value here. FORECAST: Troy 41 ULM 20

2* NEBRASKA over Missouri - LY MU was in control up 12-0 after 3Q’s before a 4Q collapse. QB Gabbert was banged up in 2Q and NU scored 3 TD in 11 plays in just 3:22.Tigers are 1-15 in Lincoln but won its last in ‘08. The HT is 6-2 SU/ATS but NU is 1-9 ATS as a B12 HF. Into OSU: NU had all’d 21 or fewer pts an NCAA best 14 straight gms until LW’s 51-41 shootout win as a 4H LPS at OK St. After being benched vs UT QB Martinez responded with a career high 323 pass yd and 5 TD. Martinez avg 149 (59%) with a 8-3 ratio and has 870 rush yds (#9 NCAA). NU is #1 NCAA pass eff D with future NFL DC’s at CB. MU is off its biggest win in program history knocking off #1 OU for their 1st 7-0 start S/’60. MU ret’d the opening KO 86 yd for a TD and took advantage of 3 Sooners TO’s incl an int at the MU 12 and a fmbl at the MU 14 in the win. Despite inj QB Gabbert has been spectacular the L/2 avg 335 ypg (69%) with a 4-0 ratio. Surprisingly the Tigers are #5 NCAA in scoring D (13.1) with their best D player DE Smith returning LW after missing 3 (59 yd IR). Huskers are looking up in the standings at Missou but take out their old B8/B12 foe one last time.FORECAST: NEBRASKA 34 Missouri 20

RED SHEET

NEVADA 55 - Utah State 17 - (10:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 24, and is now minus 25½. The WolfPack has had an extra week to stew off their upset at Hawaii, when they turned it over 3 times. Should be back on track with a vengeance vs a squad which took 'em to the final whistle in '09. Can't see Kaepernick & Co, who rank 6th in the nation in rushing offense, being sidetracked by an Aggie team, whose earlier spread magic has vanished, & in off allowing 216 RYs vs a Hawaii team, which entered with the 4th worst running team in the land. Ags dropped their last 2 RGs by combined 65-13 score. RATING: NEVADA 90

OKLAHOMA 48 - Colorado 10 - (9:15) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 22, and is now minus 24. Not the best of situations for the hopeful, but battered Buffaloes, as they catch the Sooners off their only loss of the year. No questioning the slippage of that normally overpowering Okie "D", but CU, & its 74th ranked "O" is hardly the opponent to take advantage, having been outscored, 78-8, in its last 2 road games, & has a spread record of 1-9 as a dog of at least 16 pts. Turning it around, note that OU won its last home game, 52-0, & covered 2 of its 3 hosters by 23½ & 29 pts. BuffS hurting, defensively, & at QB. RATING: OKLAHOMA 89

SOUTH CAROLINA 41 - Tennessee 10 - (12:20) -- Line opened at SouthCarolina minus 18, and is now minus 17½. A few weeks ago, the Volunteers came within a FG of upsetting LSU, as 17 pt underdogs. And earlier, they stayed within 2 TDs of Florida (spread push). Right, that's about it. In their other 4 lined games, the Vols have been outscored by 90 pts, with a minus 65½ pts ATS. And that Florida showing has certainly diminished in stature, as the Gators are only a shell of their recent editions. The host is 9-1 ATS in Gamecock tilts, by 112½ pts. SC has 93-40 pt edge in SEC hosters. Won't repeat LY's errors. RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88

HAWAII 57 - Idaho 31 - (11:30) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 13½, and is now minus 14. Talk about a squad on fire. The Rainbows stumbled a bit with the departure of June Jones to SMU, but they've re-emerged as yet another overhead giant. And, as is normally the case, its scoring prduction is the beneficiary. Moniz has thrown for 1,876 yds & 22 TDs the past 5 weeks, with Hawaii +92½ ATS in its last 4 lined tilts. The Vandals were spread darlings during the 1st half of '09, but that Idaho "D" is its bane. Chalk owns this series, covering last six between 'em, & with Idaho allowing 683 yds in its last road game, it continues. RATING: HAWAII 88

Miami-Florida 45 - VIRGINIA 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 14½, and is still minus 14½. No questioning the jury being out on this lastest UM edition, especially following its 45-17 home loss to FloridaSt, &ensuing "through-the-motions" win at Duke. But last week's showing vs oncoming North Carolina erased many a doubt, as to the true worth of this outfit. In that one, the Hurricanes turned a 10-3 deficit into a 33-10 win. Obviously, they shut down the 'Heels' offense, but note posting a beautifully balanced 225 RYs & 217 PYs vs UNC. The Cavs have a 33-15 ppg deficit in their last 10 lined games. RATING: MIAMI-FLORIDA 88

NEW YORK JETS 31 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 4½, and is now minus 6. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC title game last year, in Ryan's initial season, as they ranked #1 in the NFL on defense, while also owning the #1 ranked rushing offense. Thus, they were among the squadS mentioned as legitimate SuperBowl contenders this time around. And, they have certainly lived up to those expectations. Five straight wins & covers, while ranking 2nd in rushing, as well as 5th in scoring "D". The Packers have suffered many key injuries, with largest win since week #2 coming by 4 pts. RATING: NEW YORK JETS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Miami-Ohio, NoIllinois, OhioU, Baylor -- NFL: Detroit, KansasCity, Houston

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Iowa (-4 to -6½); Oklahoma (-22 to -24); Illinois (-15 to -16½); Vandy (+22½ to +21); OleMiss (+8½ to +7); Tulsa (+9½ to +8); Nevada (-24 to -25½); Cal (+4 to +2½) - NFL: NYJets (-4½ to -6); Cincy (-1 to -2½); Pats (-3½ to -5); Lions (-1 to -2) - TIME CHANGES: None - KEY INJURIES: Probable: ArizSt QB Threet (concussion); Arky QB Mallett (shoulder); BG RB Geter (ankle); FlaSt QB Ponder (elbow); Illinois QB Scheelhasse (hand); KY RB Locke (shoulder); Michigan QB Robinson (shoulder); MissSt RB Ballard (ankle); Nevada RB Taua (ankle); NDame WR Floyd (hamstring); Okla WR Browles (ankle); Oregon RB James (leg); SDSt RB Hillman (hip) SoCaro RB Lattimore (ankle); Syracuse RB Carter (hip) - Questionable: Arizona QB Foles (knee); CMich RB Cotton (ankle); Cincy QB Collaros (leg); Tenn QB Simms (knee) - Doubtful: PennSt QB Bolden (head) & Newsome (knee) - Out: UCLA QB Prince (knee) - Out for Season: CFla RB Harvey (knee); Colo QB Hansen (spleen); UConn QB Endres (suspension) -

NFL: Probable: Carolina RB Williams (foot); Detroit QB Stafford (shoulder); J'Ville QB Garrard (concussion); Philly QB Vick (ribs); StLouis RB Jackson (finger) - Questionable: Arizona QB Hall (concussion); Minnesota QB Favre (ankle); Tennessee QB Young (knee) - Doubtful: Indianapolis RB Addai (shoulder); SanFrancisco QB Smith (shoulder) - Out: Dallas QB Romo (collarbone)....