NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
2* UTEP
UTEP HC Price said that TY’s squad was the most snakebitten, inj-plagued tm that he had been a part of but many inj’d players participated in gms that he thought was extremely unlikely. This is the 3rd bowl for Price at UTEP (0-2 SU/ATS) and 8th overall as he went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS with WSU. BYU was revived after the USU loss when DC Hill was fired and HC Mendenhall took over DC duties (DC here before HC). The “Band of Brothers” t-shirts returned to the sidelines and BYU pulled the upset of SDSt. After an expected loss to TCU, BYU reeled off 4 str wins and landed here. After 5 str appearances in the LV Bowl, many would expect BYU to be disappointed here, but the young Cougs must feel a sense of accomplishment after the dismal start to the ssn. The Miners have 12 Sr st’rs among their 18 upperclassmen while BYU has 6 Sr’s and 15 upperclassmen. UTEP has ply’d 3 bowl caliber tms going 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) and being outscored 34-26 and outgained 493-346 while the Cougars took on 7 going 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) being outscored 26-15 and outgained 383-297. The Miners are playing in Albuquerque for the 2nd time TY (beat NM Oct 2nd).
The senior-laden UTEP off (10 Sr st’rs) ranks #83 as they avg’d 26 ppg and 371 ypg. QB Vittatoe set the schl’s all-time pass record mid-ssn but inj’s to his shldr and most notably his ankle hampered him in the 2H of the yr as he threw for career-lows in att, comp, yds and comp %. In fact over his L/2Y Vittatoe had a 36-23 ratio vs a 58-16 mark over his 1st 2. RB Buckram was the #1 rusher in CUSA LY but a slew of inj’s kept him out of 5 full gms and parts of others. TCU trans Banyard took the bulk of the carries early on with Buckram out. WR Adams was Vittatoe’s go-to-guy almost the entire ssn as he leads the tm in rec, yds, ypc and TD rec and has 3 more TD rec than the rest of the tm comb! The OL consists of 5 Sr st’rs and avg a large 6’5” 307. The group paved the way for 150 ypg (4.6) while all’g just 14 sks (3.5%). The def (#102) all’d 25 ppg and 404 ypg. The tm all’d just 300 ypg in their 6 wins but gave up an amazing 508 ypg in their 6 defeats. The DL avg 6’2” 273 (1 Sr) and all’d 181 ypg rush (4.9) while recording 12 of the tm’s 14 sks (86%). The LB unit was led by the trio of Irving, Carter and Smith. S Braxton Amy was granted a 6th yr by the NCAA bolstering the unit but he suffered a career-ending leg inj in wk 2 giving Jeune the starting gig (led tm in tkls). UTEP has our #64 pass D rating all’g 223 ypg (61%) with a 20-9 ratio. They brought in 2 JC’s to handle the tm’s kicking duties while McClure handled both the return duties with 2 TD’s. The coverage units all’d 22.3 on KR and 11.6 on PR (#16 overall ST rating).
BYU began the season using dual-QB’s after the loss of 4x 3,000 yd passer Max Hall. After a ssn opening win, BYU lost the next 2 with the QB combo of Heaps and Nelson avg just 155 ypg (50%) with a 1-2 ratio. Nelson was ruled OFY (shoulder) in the 3rd gm and the off was handed to true Fr Heaps. Heaps threw for 499 yds (52%) but had an 0-2 ratio in the next two losses. The top rusher/rec is Di Luigi and while he will set no records, he has done a nice job of filling in for 3x 1,000 yd rusher Unga. The OL avg 6’5” 314 with 1 Sr st’r and is paving the way for 164 ypg (4.2) rush. They’ve started every gm together and have all’d 21 sks (5.4%) although 8 of those came in the loss to Fla St. Overall, the Coug offense ranks #78. The DL is anchored by emotional leader So’oto who tops the team with 10.5 tfl. The DL has recorded 10 of the tm’s 20 sks TY and all’s 4.1 ypc. The Cougs have our #46 rated D. The secondary is led by S Andrew Rich who is the tm’s top tkl’r while diminutive CB Logan (5’6”) ranks #3. BYU ranks #24 in our pass eff D rankings all’g 188 ypg (54%) with a 17-13 ratio. The ST’s unit ranks #61 behind record setting PK Payne. The Cougs have not had a KR TD in 155 gms (dating back to ‘98) and suffered with the midseason susp and subsequent dismissal of KR/PR Chambers. The return units allow 5.8 ypr on PR and 22.7 on KR.
UTEP is thrilled to be back in a bowl after a 4 year hiatus and HC Price called this a snake-bit season with inj’s. They are led by RB Buckram who LY had 1,600 yds and should now be healthy. BYU finished the season winning 4 of 5 gms and covering the final 4 with the defense excelling after Mendenhall took over and in fact had shutout the L/4 opps at the half. Always look to take a DD dog in a non-NYD bowl and you have to feel that the Miners will be prepared and are healthier here.
FORECAST: UTEP (+) BYU by 3 RATING: 2★ UTEP (+)
3* FRESNO ST
The series is tied 2-2 SU (1-1 ATS). In the last meeting, the Bulldogs won 55-7 (-22) in Fresno in ‘91. This is the Huskies’ 6th bowl appearance (2-3 SU and 1-3 ATS) and their 3rd in 3 yrs. However, NI is 0-3 SU and ATS in bowls S/’06 incl a mark of 0-2 SU/ATS under HC Kill who left after the MAC Champ to take the HC position at Minnesota. LB cch Matukewicz will serve as the Huskies’ interim HC for the bowl and he was on Kill’s staff for the bowls in ‘08 and ‘09. FSU is 10-9 SU and 6-7 ATS in bowl gms (4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS under HC Hill). The Bulldogs are appearing in their 11th bowl gm in the L/12Y (none in ‘06) and 7 of those gms were decided by one score or less (5 ppg avg) with FSU going 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS in those gms. Fresno is looking to shake off B2B bowl losses by a comb 12 pts despite being the fav in both. The Bulldogs are playing their 2nd gm in Boise TY as they were destroyed by BSU here on Nov. 19. FSU has played on “The Blue” every other yr S/’02 in addition to two bowl gms in Bronco Stadium in ‘04 (won 37-34 vs UVA in OT, +5) and ‘07 (won 40-28 vs GT, +6).
The Huskies are coming off their 2nd last-min loss in as many trips to the MAC Title gm. After allowing a gm-winning TD to Akron with :10 left in ‘05 (lost 31-30, -13) they all’d Miami to score with :33 left in this year’s Title game and fell, 26-21 (-17’). However, unlike being left at home for the postssn in ‘05, the Huskies get a chance to go bowling this time around. Kill preached to his tm about keeping an even keel all ssn long so despite the loss, they should be ready to go here. Kill sat QB Harnish in the opener to teach him that he had to earn the starting job and not to just expect it. Harnish responded and finished the reg ssn #1 in the MAC in pass eff, #3 in ttl off and #6 in rushing despite sitting many 2H’s after building big leads. The #31 off also had just 14 TO’s TY. RB Spann was named the MAC POY as he led in rushing and scoring (20 TD). While Harnish spread the ball around, NI’s top 4 WR’s accounted for 78% of the rec yds and 20 of the 22 rec TD’s. The OL avg 6’4” 309 (0 Sr) and started 94% of the gms together while paving the way for the MAC’s #1 rush off with 265 ypg (6.2 ypc) and all’g just 13 sks (surrendered 3 in the MAC Champ). The Huskies’ D (7 Sr st’rs) finished the reg ssn #1 in the MAC in scoring def, #3 in ttl def and #57 overall in our rankings. The DL avg 6’3” 265 (3 Sr) and is led by DE Coffman with a tm-best 6.5 sks. NI all’d just 131 ypg rush (4.0) with 24 sks. The Huskies have our #42 pass eff def all’g 202 ypg (57%) with a solid 13-16 ratio and our #51 ST unit. While NI had just a net P avg of 33.7, they blocked 4 punts and returned 2 for TD’s.
It’s no secret the Bulldogs play a physical style of football up front and want to run the ball under Pat Hill. FSU finished #8 in the NCAA in rushing LY (229 ypg) and diminutive soph RB Rouse (5’7” 185) entered the ssn as the feature back but there were questions about his durability. Rouse was sidelined in Wk 2 with an inj but as the ssn wore on, he not only proved Hill correct, but also made his mark in the FSU record books by becoming the 1st FSU RB ever to rush for 200 yds in B2B gms (286 vs LT, 217 vs UN) en route to topping 1,000 yds. FSU’s OL avg 6’5” 312 (3 Sr) but its top two OL (RG Jackson and C Bernardi) where both bitten by the injury bug (saw limited action) which is part of the reason why the Bulldogs 4.1 ypc was their lowest S/’02. FSU’s DL avg 6’3” 278 (2 Sr) and features arguably the nation’s top DE/DT duo in sks in DE Carter and DT Harrell. Carter leads the WAC (#7 NCAA) with 11 sks, while Harrell is 2nd in the WAC (#10 NCAA) with 10.5 sks. As a tm, Fresno has 37 sks (#6 NCAA) to more than triple the output from LY when the unit managed just 11! FSU has our #54 pass eff def but the int ttl has been minimal. Over a 5 yr span (‘06-’10), FSU has just 30 int (6 per yr) with TY’s mark of 8 equalling a ssn-high during that time frame. FSU is #65 in our ST rankings. S/‘02, Fresno leads the nation with 56 blk’d kicks and two-time Groza semi-finalist K Goessling is 81% for his career (50-62) incl 21-28 from 40+ and 5-7 from 50+. FSU has all’d 2 KR and 1 PR for TD’s TY.
NI cruised thru the MAC regular season going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS but after losing in the MAC Champ, as a 17’ pt fav, got shipped out west. They are also dealing with the departure of HC Kill and now are prepped by an interim. Fresno had a pair of BCS wins TY vs Cincy and IL and also had a late lead vs Nevada. As you see in our “Intangibles” the dog in Fresno bowls is 7-0 ATS with Fresno pulling the upset 4 times. Surprised that they’re a dog here and we’ll certainly take the points.
FORECAST: Fresno St by 10 RATING: 3★ FRESNO ST
1* OHIO U
First meeting. This is Ohio’s 5th bowl game ever and its 3rd in HC Solich’s 6 ssns. LY they lost to Marshall in the Little Caesars 21-17 (-3) bringing Solich’s record to 2-5 SU/ATS in bowl gms and dropping Ohio to 0-4 SU (0-2 ATS) in bowls. Ohio has been sitting since Nov 26th with bitter disappointment as they lost their ssn finale to Kent St 28-6 (-4) keeping them from their 2nd straight MAC East Title and a spot in the MAC Title game. Troy and HC Blakeney are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS all-time in bowls losing their last 2 by 3 pts each (both in OT). They have faced the MAC in 2 bowl gms losing 34-21 (-3) to NI in ‘04 and 44-41 (+3) to CM LY. The Trojans finished the ssn on Dec 4th with 2 wins and when FIU dropped their reg ssn finale by 1, Troy won a share of the crown. They return to the New Orleans Bowl for the third time in the L/5Y. Ohio played 4 bowl tms this TY going 2-2 SU/ATS. They were outscored by a 25-21 avg while being outgained 349-250 (incl a 43-7 loss at Ohio St where they were outgained 439-162). Troy also faced 4 bowl tms TY going 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) being outscored 44-35 and outgained 464-392. Ohio was 3-3 SU but 4-2 ATS on the road incl an outright upset of Temple 31-23 (+8’). They were outscored 25-22 on the road and outgained 365-291 but that again was weighted down by the Ohio St blow out. Troy was 3-4 SU/ATS on the road TY. OU has 10 Sr starters among 15 upperclassmen while Troy is led by 11 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen.
Ohio started the ssn playing 2 QB’s but former Iowa St transfer Bates was inj’d (missed 3) while Jackson, who was coming off a MedRS (2 gms), played all 12. They finished as Ohio’s #2 and #3 rushers and comb to lead the Bobcats in rushing in 7 gms TY incl Bates’ 142 vs BG (OU’s ssn high). Jackson however had almost 90% of the tm’s pass att. RB Davidson had two 100+ yd gms and Harden was the #4 rusher despite missing 6. Ohio lost its top returning WR Brazill (53 rec, 13.2 LY) for the ssn (ply’d 3). Their top WR McCrae, who finished #3 LY, did not even match LY’s totals (35, 545). The starting OL avg 6’4” 305 and all 5 have started 8+ gms TY incl 3 that started all 12. OU avg 169 ypg and 4.4 ypc behind them but despite 2 mobile QB’s all’d 17 sks (6.8%). OU finished with our #97 off. The D (#66) has 7 fifth yr Sr st’rs (incl all 4 DL) and is all’g just 115 ypg rushing (3.2) and on the ssn has 24 sks. Ohio has our #71 pass eff D all’g 218 ypg (59%) with a 17-17 ratio. The Bobcats have our #15 ST’s unit. While not all’g a P block this ssn, all 3 of K Weller’s FG misses were blocked. They lead the MAC in net punting (39.4) as Hershey has just 1 TB despite 10 punts of 50+ yds and OU is all’g just 6.9 ypr on punts and just 18.7 on KR’s. OU is avg 10.2 on PR’s and 21.5 on KR’s.
Troy has 7 Sr starters on offense (#57) and led the SBC in scoring and ttl off. They are led by rFr QB Robinson, who in his 1st yr as a starter, led the SBC in pass ypg and was 2nd in pass eff but did go through a rough 5 gm patch (3 losses) when he threw 11 of his 15 int. The run game has 4 players with 306+ rush yds each avg at least 4.0 ypc. That incl their top WR Jernigan who not only leads the SBC in rec but also all-purp yds (165 ypg). The OL avg 6’3” 303 with 4 upperclassmen incl 3 Sr’s. They have paved the way for 151 rush ypg (4.2) while all’g 24 sks (4.9%). The OL had three 12 gm st’rs while 2 others started 9 each. The D (#103) was just #6 in scoring and #8 in ttl def in the SBC but did lead with 35 sks. Their DE’s ranked #2 and #3 in the SBC in sks with DE Massaquoi leading the SBC in tfl (17.5). Despite their sack total they are still all’g 171 ypg rush (4.5) and could struggle vs OU’s rush attack (DL avg just 6’2” 257). Troy had our #62 pass eff D all’g 248 ypg (58%) with a 20-12 ratio. They had our #52 spec tms unit despite WR Jernigan having 2 ret TD’s as they also all’d 2 TD’s (1 PR, 1 KR). They were #2 in the SBC in net punting.
Both had their sights set on conf champs but after failing to reach those goals, meet in the Superdome. Ohio has struggled in their 2 recent bowls and the last time they came down South, they lost to SM 28-7. We do like OU having the options with both QB’s and they get a favorable matchup vs a small, aggressive DL. Troy looked like the SBC’s top team early, but dropped 5 straight ATS incl outright losses as 16’ and 8’ pt favs until winning their L/2. This is the Trojans’ 3rd trip to this bowl in the L/5Y and they’ve split the two previous meetings. We’ll back the team with the better D who can run the ball.
FORECAST: Ohio by 6 RATING: 1★ OHIO
NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS:
PP calls this matchup of former WAC rivals close to the number but gives BYU a 433-302 yd edge. BYU has won 25 of the L27 in this series but they haven’t met since 1998.
NO PLAY: BYU 28 UTEP 16
Fresno comes in with the crowd edge and faces a NI team without HC Kill who left for Minnesota. PP says NI by 5 but we disagree and like Fresno St.
NO PLAY: N ILLINOIS 32 FRESNO ST 27
PP calls this right at the line but gives Troy a 431-344 yd edge. We disagree with PP and like Ohio here as they have the stronger defense and running game.
NO PLAY: TROY 30 OHIO 29
PLAYBOOK
BYU over UTEP by 8
Fresno St over No Illinois by 4
Troy over Ohio U by 3
THE GOLD SHEET
Byu 30 - Utep 24
As the slate of bowl games bloats beyond recognition, one
cringes at the thought of going any lower than this year’s UTEP squad when
handing out post-season invitations. The Miners’ “impressive” résumé? After
breaking from the gate 5-1 with victories over Arkansas-Pine Bluff and FBS
dregs the likes of New Mexico, New Mexico State, Memphis and Rice, they
managed just one win in their last six games.
So why hesitate to lay even a somewhat-inflated price against a team that was
bad enough to lose to Tulane...at home...by double digits? After all, even though
BYU also finished 6-6, its season was the polar opposite of UTEP’s campaign.
The Cougars enter this clash on a roll, capturing 5 of their last 7 games (6-1 vs.
the spread) after dropping 4 of their first 5. BYU’s rebuilt stop unit (only 16 ppg
in last 7) jelled after cagey head coach Bronco Mendenhall jettisoned d.c. Jaime
Hill and assumed command of the platoon himself. And touted true frosh QB
Jake Heaps (9 TDP, only 1 int. in last 4 games) has steadily gained confidence
since becoming the starter in late September.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Miners can hang inside this generous
spread. First, can’t ignore the strong technical trend that has seen substantial
bowl dogs of +7 points or more cover 67 of 104 chances (64%) since 2000.
Second, this year’s UTEP defense (only 25 ppg) is MUCH stronger than recent
previous editions that consistently ranked among the worst units in the nation.
Third, and most important, sr. QB Trevor Vittatoe. As Vittatoe goes, so goes the
Miners’ offense. And, after limping through most of the second half of the
season on a badly sprained ankle, the four-year starter with 94 career TDP (as
well as his banged-up OL) should be much closer to full strength for this short trip
to Albuquerque’s familiar University Stadium (where UTEP beat the woeful
hometown Lobos in early October).
*Troy 35 - Ohio 27—This is a clear case of a matchup of one team with a
superior offense (Troy) against another with the superior defense (Ohio). The
level of play in the Sun Belt and MAC is comparable, as indicated by the Trojans
and Bobcats owning identical average Opponents’ Power Ratings of 20.5.
There was a sharp early move on Troy at the sportsbooks, taking the line from
Ohio -2 to the Trojans -1½, probably based on solid ground.
Troy has a key edge at QB with RS frosh Corey Robinson, who threw for 3339
yards and 24 TDs. When Robinson doesn’t make mistakes (15 ints.), he can be
deadly. Robinson completed 28 of 38 with 3 TDP and no interceptions at
Oklahoma State this season, but also made some bad decisions against bad
teams, as he did in lackluster 3-interception game vs. La.-Lafayette. The
Trojan QB finished on a high note, throwing for 628 yards with 5 scores and only
1 int. as Troy closed the season with a pair of wins to get a share of the Sun Belt
title and earn its third trip to the New Orleans Bowl in 5 years.
The Trojans own the most dangerous offensive player on the field in Jerrel
Jernigan, who is 8th in the country in all-purpose yards and has scored by
rushing, receiving, punt return, kickoff return, and has thrown a TD pass this
season. Troy has other capable receivers in TeBiarus Gill (48 catches), Jason
Bruce (43) & Chip Reeves (26 with 5 for TDs), and a serviceable running game,
with 3 RBs combining for 1424 yards and 15 TDs.
The knock on Troy is its defense, which ranked 80th against the run and gave
up 4.5 ypc. However, those stats were skewed a bit by games against explosive
Oklahoma State and South Carolina. The Trojans didn’t fare too well against
the pass, either, yielding 248 ypg. Troy does have playmakers on the defensive
side, however, as bookend sr. DEs Jonathan Massaquoi (11 sacks) and Mario
Addison (9 sacks, 14 TFLs) are formidable.
Frank Solich’s Bobcats have to run the ball and play keepaway to win this one.
His offense ranked 105th in passing this season, as QB Boo Jackson threw for
just 1688 yards and tossed more interceptions than TDs. The Bobcat rushing
attack ground out 4.4 ypc by using a host of runners, including Jackson (7 rush
TDs) and backup QB Phil Bates (508 YR) to augment the production of leading
rusher RB Vince Davidson (513 YR, 6 rush TDS). Solich’s defense was just
average against the pass (61st) and didn’t force turnovers the way Solich
might’ve wished. An additional problem is the questionable eligibility of 5thyear
sr. DE Ernie Hodge, whose academic standing is in doubt.
The bottom line is that Ohio is likely going to have to play from behind, and the
Bobcats just don’t have explosive offensive threats. Conversely, Robinson and
Jernigan give the Trojans the ability to get ahead and stay ahead, or rally if needed
Fresno State 36 - Northern Illinois 28—The early action on this game
(Northern opened -3) has been on Fresno State, and for good reason. The
Huskies will be led by LBs coach Tom Matukewicz after third-year mentor Jelly
Kill left NIU for Minnesota, taking offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover and
defensive coordinator Tom Claeys with him. On the other sideline will be Pat
Hill, even more beloved in Fresno TY after agreeing to a $300,000 pay reduction
in order to help out the financially-strapped university. This is Hill’s 11th bowl
(third in Boise) in his 14 years in “The Valley.” He is only 4-6 SU, usually
stepping up in class. That’s not necessarily the case TY.
Fresno lost four times, once vs. SEC foe Ole Miss at Oxford, and once each
to offensively-explosive WAC tri-champs Boise State, Nevada, and Hawaii—all
currently in the Top 25! In fact, the Bulldogs’ schedule averaged more than a
touchdown per game more difficult than that of Northern, whose 9-0 demolition
win string TY (8-1 vs. the spread) began with a victory vs. the Big Ten bottomfeeding
Golden Gophers and then included a string of either injured, rebuilding
or totally-outclassed foes. However, when the chips were on the line in TY’s
MAC title game vs. heavy underdog Miami, the Huskies quickly fell behind
early, and were subsequently overcome late by a RS freshman QB.
The upstart RedHawks won the physical battle in that game. And Fresno—
with its big, sr.-dominated OL—has a chance to do the same vs. the undersized
NIU front seven, especially with top FSU RB Robbie Rouse (1097 YR in 10
games) expected to play after a late-season hand fracture. Sr. QB Ryan
Colburn (21 TDs, 9 ints.) and PK Kevin Goessling (31 of 38 FGs L2Ys) balance
out the offense beautifully.
It appears as if the Huskies will have to excel on offense behind QB Chandler
Harnish (20 TDs, 5 ints.; 764 YR) & RB Chad Spann (1293 YR) in order to win.
But winning big games has been difficult for NIU, which has dropped its last 3
bowls by a combined 81-20 count, lost a chance to clinch the MAC West in LY’s
finale, and was upended in TY’s aforementioned title game. The Fresno
defense (37 sacks; 11 by DE Chris Carter & 10½ by DT Logan Harrell)—already
having faced explosive Boise, Nevada & Hawail—is unlikely to be intimidated
by the high-scoring Huskies. Plus, the Bulldogs are well-familiar with the
sometimes-disorienting blue turf at Boise’s Bronco Stadium.
NELLY GREEN SHEET
RATING 5: OHIO (+1½) over Troy
RATING 2: FRESNO STATE (+1) over Northern Illinois
RATING 1: UTEP (+11½) over Byu
NEW MEXICO BOWL @Albuquerque, NM ESPN
Byu (-11½) Utep (50) 1:00 PM
The bowl season opener is not exactly a glamorous match-up as these
former WAC rivals face off. This is the first bowl since 2005 for UTEP and
this will be the last game for BYU as a Mountain West Conference
representative, playing in a familiar MWC stadium. BYU faced a much
tougher schedule while starting the season 1-4 but it was an impressive late
season rally to find the postseason, winning four straight games down the
stretch and losing by just one in the finale against rival Utah. UTEP played
one of the weaker schedules in the nation, getting off to a 5-1 start before
limping to the finish line with losses in five of the final six. The Miners did
beat SMU late in the season and the last two losses came on the road
against quality teams. UTEP rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and to best
BYU’s numbers and both teams have struggled on defense overall this
season. The late season wins for BYU all came against teams that won three
or fewer games this season and after four straight ten-win seasons this bowl
game will be a bit of a letdown. UTEP is playing just 260 miles from home
which should allow for solid support for the Miners in this game. BYU BY 9
RATING 1: UTEP (+11½) over Byu
HUMANITARIAN BOWL @Boise, ID ESPN
Northern Illinois (-1) Fresno State (59) 4:30 PM
A season that was going so well has turned for Northern Illinois, first with a
stunning loss in the MAC championship game and then with Coach Jerry Kill
leaving to take the Minnesota job. Linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz will
lead the team as the interim coach with a short time frame to get the team
ready to go after all the changes. The Huskies were incredibly impressive
statistically, rushing for 265 yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry but lost
among the high scoring was a vulnerable defense that allowed 21 or more
points seven times. Going for a school record 11th win can be a motivating
factor but Fresno State may be in better position for this game even after a
lackluster 8-4 season. The Bulldogs have wins over Illinois and Cincinnati
this season and the four losses came to the three teams that tied for the
WAC title and a SEC team. The Bulldogs played in Boise less than a month
ago, an edge with the unique blue turf. This should be a better situation for
Fresno, a team that thrives in the underdog role, and line value does appear
to be on the team that played in a stronger league. FRESNO STATE BY 6
RATING 2: FRESNO STATE (+1) over Northern Illinois
NEW ORLEANS BOWL @New Orleans, LA ESPN
Troy (-1½) Ohio (58) 8:00 PM
Ohio backs into this game after blowing a great opportunity to win its division
with a loss as favorites in the final game of the season. The Bobcats had won
seven straight games prior to that loss, finishing the year 8-4 both S/U and
ATS. Ohio appears to have a big edge on defense, particularly against the
run, allowing 115 yards per game on just 3.2 yards per carry. Troy technically
won a share of the Sun Belt title for the fifth consecutive season but it was a
disappointing 7-5 campaign. The Trojans battled some internal turmoil and
lost twice in conference play. The promise shown early in the year with a
narrow loss at Oklahoma State was never realized and this is not likely to be
a highly motivated team. Troy has lost in overtime in the past two bowl
games including the 2008 New Orleans Bowl so an exciting game may
commence even though this is not an overly intriguing match-up. Ohio has
never won a bowl game but closing the year with a painful loss should spur a
focused effort this year. Line value also appears to be with the Bobcats as
Ohio played the tougher schedule and was vastly superior on defense. Troy
has a better reputation but this could be Ohio’s breakthrough. OHIO BY 13
RATING 5: OHIO (+1½) over Troy
POINTWISE
2* BYU
BYU (6-6) vs UTEP (6-6)
Here we go again! As we've begun recent bowl editions, we again note that no
less than Thirty-Five Bowl Games will transpire this year. And again note that
when we released our very first bowl edition (Tues, Dec 16, 1969), it consisted of
exactly 8 Bowls: Sun, Gator, Peach, Blue Bonnet, Rose, Cotton, Orange, & Sugar.
And again, we mention that the "bowl eligible" mission seems the main quest for
the vast majority of marginal squads, with a 6-6 record actually coveted in most
quarters. Sad. Only ArizSt, WestMich, Temple, & SoCalif finished the regular
season at .500>, & aren't playing in the post-season. USC is on probation, &
couldn't participate, regardless, & 2 ArizonaSt wins came vs non-Div1A teams.
This contest pits a couple of former WAC foes, meeting for the first time since
'98. For the Cougars of BYU, this marks their 6th consecutive bowl season, the
previous 5 coming in the Las Vegas Bowl (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS). They compiled a
43-9 SU log from '06-'09 (double digit wins each year), but stood at just 2-5 this
season, before a furious 4-0 run (169-44 pt edge) got them to 6-5. Nearly 7-5, as
they saw a 13-0 lead over Utah in the 4th evolve into a 17-16 loss. Thus, 5 of
their 6 setbacks have come vs squads with a combined 47-15 record. Overland,
they were held below 92 yds 5 times, while topping 215 yds 6 times. RY DeLuigi
is their "go-to" player (819 RYs, 422 receiving yds), but QB Heaps is a mediocre
56% (11/8). The Miners of UTEP have had their moments, but their 6 wins have
come vs foes with a cumulative record of 20-52. They rank 2nd in the C-USA in
total "D", but 86th nationally. Utep QB Vittatoe is their main man, but ranks just
80th in passing efficiency. Explosiveness & experience is all in the Cougar camp.
PROPHECY: BYU 34 - Utep 17 RATING: 2
6* FRESNO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3) vs FRESNO STATE (8-4
Oh, so close. The Huskies of Northern Illinois were just 0:33 away from their first
MAC title since 1983. But it was not to be, as they allowed a 33-yd TD pass,
losing 26-21. That loss not only prevented them from their league championship,
but snapped a 9-game winning streak, in which they held a 378-150 pt edge. And
that included a 195-pt burst in their final 3 regular season contests, in which they
held a 1,160-459 RY edge (+92 pts ATS). They are led by QB Harnish (65%,
2,994 TYs, 20/5) & RB Spann (1,293 RYs, 20 TDs). He has topped 1,000 RYs
each of the last 2 years, but check being held to just 54 yds on 17 carries in NIU's
loss to Miami. And note further, that the Huskies' 9-gm run came against teams
with a cumulative record of 37-71. As a matter of fact, during the regular season,
they faced only 3 lined teams with winning records. So, was their MAC title loss
a foretelling of their true worth, or merely a glitch on an otherwise superb season?
Well, the outcome of this one will surely answer that question, as the Bulldogs of
Fresno State are a battle-tested squad, which will be participating in a bowl for the
4th straight season, & their 10th in the past 11 years. After opening this year with
an impressive win over Cincinnati, they settled into their normal swoon, which
included wipeout losses to OleMiss, Hawaii, & Boise. But they lost late to 13th
ranked Nevada, & upset a quality Illinois outfit in their finale. And note that their
last 3 losses came vs teams with a combined 32-5 mark. They are led by RB
Rouse, altho he has been plagued by a rib injury & is iffy for this. QB Colburn is
an efficient 62% & 21/9. Two stats jump out, namely the quality of opposition, &
turnovers. And note that NIU's head coach has departed for Minnesota. 'Dogs.
PROPHECY: FRESNO STATE 33 - Northern Illinois 30 RATING: 6
5* TROY
TROY (7-5) vs OHIO U (8-4)
Yet another bowl appearance for the Bobcats of Ohio U, & that makes 5: '62 Sun,
'68 Tangerine, '06 GMAC, & '09 Little Caesars. That's right, 3 in the last 5 years,
after just 2 in their first 112 seasons. Not exactly a power, altho the 'Cats' prior 2
bowl years included slots in the MAC title game, which eluded them this time
around, thanks to a season-ending loss to then 4-7 Kent, which snapped a 7-gm
winning streak, in which they held a 213-95 RYpg edge. That loss to Kent saw a
complete turnaround in their overland fortunes, as they suffered thru a 140-50
RY deficit, along with a 4-0 turnover deficit. And OU managed just 11 FDs vs a
Kent "D" which finished the season with the 13th ranked "D" in the nation. So not
totally unexpected. Ohio depends mainly on its "D", which ranks 14th vs the run,
& 27th overall, as its "O" comes in at just 94th, including 105th overhead, as QB
Jackson checks in at 15/16. The Trojans of Troy play in their 5th post-season
affair in the last 7 years, & thus far, things haven't exactly gone their way, losing
3-of-4, including 3-pt OT losses the past 2 years (30-27 in the '08 New Orleans,
& 44-41 in the '09 GMAC). Thus, they are surely bowl tested, & have certainly
held their own, coming within an eyelash of a 3-game bowl run. This year, Troy
needed a strong finish to get here, as they stood at 5-5, & on a 0-5 ATS slide, by
98½ pts ATS, before grabbing their last 2 vs 2-10 WesternKy & 4-8 FlaAtlantic.
The Trojans rank 12th in passing "O", with QB Robinson at 62%, 3,320 yds &
24/15, as well as 24th in total "O". Thus, their 93rd ranked "D" cannot be trusted.
But Ohio managed only 10 FDs & 123 yds in LY's bowl loss to Marshall & its 372
ypg "D". Many negatives, but edge may be Troy dedication off 2 OT bowl losses.
PROPHECY: TROY 27 - Ohio U 20 RATING: 5
BANG THE BOOK
Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (+1.5, 58.5)
Northern Illinois will attempt to put a disappointing end to the season behind them when they play against the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Humanitarian Bowl. The latest college football odds for this bowl game have the Huskies listed as three point favorites over the Bulldogs when they meet up on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Northern Illinois has had a 10 win season which is respectable for any college football team, but they are not pleased with how the regular season ended. The Huskies lost the Mid-American Conference championship game to Miami (Ohio) in the waning seconds. They enter this game with hopes of trying get over that loss and they will have to do it without their head coach.
Jerry Kill bolted the head position with the Huskies to become the new head coach in Minnesota. This adds to the current adversity that the school is going through. The Huskies will attempt to win the game with an interim coach which has not been successful in the past. In 2007-08, six teams went to bowls with interim coaches and only one of those coaches notched a victory in the bowl game. Although the interim coach will come from the current staff, as of now with just ten days to go, the coach has not been named.
The Huskies have 20 seniors on this team and that will help in getting through the hardship, but it may not be enough to get the win.
Fresno State enters this game with a victory over a Big Ten opponent as they defeated Illinois by the final score of 25-23. Fresno State has defeated two teams from automatic-qualifying conferences in Illinois of the Big Ten and Cincinnati of the Big East, and is thrilled to be playing in this bowl game. In the last two years the Bulldogs have gone to the New Mexico Bowl and they are thrilled with the change. The Huskies are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) when they play a team with a winning record, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against the WAC, and 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games as an underdog.
Northern Illinois has the better offense, but they are in a state of flux that will hurt them in this game as they lose to the Bulldogs.
Humanitarian Bowl Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +3
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP Miners vs. BYU Cougars (-11.5, 50)
The college football bowl season kicks off with the New Mexico bowl in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The chosen participants to kickoff the bowl season will be the BYU Cougars and the University of Texas-El Paso Miners. The latest college football odds for this game has the Cougars listed as 12 point favorites over the Miners.
If college football games are won in the trenches, then the Miners may have the edge in this game. On the offensive line the Miners had six fifth-year seniors starting and another senior as one of the top backups at the start of the season. Then injuries plagued the line all season long and they started eight different combinations on the line throughout the season. This allowed the line to be flexible for different combinations and experienced for this bowl game. With a month off before the bowl game the line is well rested and will be pivotal in keeping the miners in this game. Will Ozolinsky will be the only offensive lineman that will not be suited up for the bowl game as he I out with a broken leg.
The UTEP Miners seem to be very excited about playing in the New Mexico bowl because it will allow the fan base to make the trip and support the team. BYU never has problems traveling and has a very loyal fan base, although they would have preferred a better bowl selection.
In press conference Brigham Young coach Bronco Mendenhall, called the Miners offense explosive and praised the offense of the miners. The Cougar defense will have a tough time containing that offense and breaking through a superior offensive line.
BYU freshman quarterback Jake Heaps will play for this game but is still suffering from a sore shoulder and ribs. The Cougars finished the season with a loss to rival Utah and a 6-6 record. In a season filled with change and adversity the Cougars will just go through the motions in this game and the Miners have a very good chance to win this game outright. The Miners are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against the Mountain West Conference. The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
New Mexico Bowl Pick: UTEP Miners +12
New Orleans Bowl: Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans (-3, 57)
In one of the most evenly matched bowl games of the season, the Troy Trojans and the Ohio Bobcats face off in the New Orleans Bowl. The latest college football odds posted for this game, have the Trojans favored by just one point, an indication of just how close this game can be.
Ohio is led by quarterback Boo Jackson, who has thrown for 1,688 yards and 15 touchdowns, and is the Bobcats all-time leader in completion percentage, pass efficiency, touchdown passes, total offense per play and passing yards per attempt.
While they have a solid leader under center the strength of the Bobcats offense is the rushing attack that notched 25 touchdowns on the season. The Bobcats will play physical and use the wildcat formation to attempt to confuse the Trojans defense.
Troy hammered Florida Atlantic last Saturday to grab a share of their fifth consecutive Sun Belt Conference title. Running back Shawn Southward leads Troy with 552 yards and will be the main weapon on the ground but he has some help. Senior DuJuan Harris and sophomores Chris Anderson and D.J. Taylor all contribute on a quick paced offense that attacks opposing defenses.
Ohio will match up well on defense and this game has the potential to be one of the most entertaining bowl games of the season.
The Trojans are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last none games as a favorite and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
The Bobcats enter this bowl game riding a seven game winning streak and will get the upset in the New Orleans Bowl.
New Orleans Bowl Pick: Ohio Bobcats +1.5
CKO
11 Fresno
CTO
11 Cleve St 10 M-Ohio 10 UTEP
GOLD SHEET LTS
Top Choice (1½ Units) OVER 57 points in the Louisville-So. Miss game
(St. Petersburg Bowl)
FRESNO STATE +1½ over Northern Illinois (Humanitarian Bowl at Boise, ID)
OVER 57½ points in the Ohio-Troy game (New Orleans Bowl)
EARLY CBB LTS RELEASES FOR SATURDAY
TULANE +14 over Virginia Commonwealth
OHIO +5 over St. Bonaventure
RICHMOND -5 over Georgia Tech