Newsletters Sep 29 - Oct 3

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

VANDERBILT

Of the many technical “surprises” we uncover throughout the course of a season, perhaps none catch more off guard than Vanderbilt’s somewhat startling success vs. the number away from home. The Commodores are an impressive 20-7 vs. the line away since 2005, and an even more eye-opening 18-4 vs. the number as a visiting dog that span. Also included is a 7-1 spread mark in Vandy’s last 8 as a non-conference visitor. It all bodes well for Saturday’s trip to UConn, where the Huskies have covered just 2of their last 5 at “The Rentsch.”

NAVY

We know that Air Force is hellbent to end its protracted 7-game losing streak to hated service academy rival Navy. But we also know that the early number on this game forces us to take a had look at the Mids, who have not only dominated the Falcons in recent years (also no losses vs. the spread the last seven meetings), but are historically strong on the road (35-18 vs. points away from Annapolis since 2000) 29-17 in role away from Annapolis since 2000). Note that Navy is also a featured play in a variety of tech systems this week, including Rivalry Underdog, Power Underdog, Streakbusters, and College Coach as Underdog with HC Ken Niumatalolo.

UCLA

There’s been a switch in roles for HC Rick Neuheisel since arriving at UCLA two years ago. Once a noted underachiever as a favorite in earlier career stops at Colorado and Washington, Neuheisel has covered 7 of his last 8 as chalk with the Bruins, who host Washington State Saturday at the Rose Bowl. UCLA’s numbers at the Rose Bowl over the past six years are also extraordinary, standing 28-11 vs. the number the last 39 in Pasadena. And UCLA enters this weekend as the nation’s top “AFS” (Away From Spread) team over the past two weeks, with a whopping +28.75 that span.

HAWAII

Ever try booking a round trip from Ruston, LA to Honolulu with your travel agent? If you have, you wouldn’t wonder why the road team has had so much trouble in this series between far-flung WAC foes Hawaii and La Tech, as the visitor has failed to cover the last six meetings. So, it’s edge to the host Warriors this week, especially with the Bulldogs just 8-20 as a road underdog since 2005.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Now that Florida Atlantic has proven it can cover on the road outside of the Sun Belt, we don’t mind giving the Owls a look as a hefty dog Saturday night in Tampa vs. USF. Howard Schnellenberger’s bunch has covered 18 of its last 29 away from Lockhart Stadium, while USF HC Skip Holtz is just 9-16 his last 25 tries as chalk at both ECU and with the Bulls.

ST. LOUIS

Well, we might as well ride this St. Louis horse for a while. The improved Rams have covered two straight as tech plays and look to make it a hat trick this week when hosting Seattle. The poor-traveling Seahawks have dropped 8 of their last 9 spread decisions on the road.

NELLY

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (-11⁄2) over Baltimore
RATING 4 CLEVELAND (+3) over Cincinnati
RATING 3 SAN DIEGO (-81⁄2) over Arizona
RATING 2 WASHINGTON (+61⁄2) over Philadelphia
RATING 1 OAKLAND (+31⁄2) over Houston

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-17) over Ball State
RATING 4 CLEMSON (+3) over Miami, FL
RATING 3 OREGON (-7) over Stanford
RATING 2 RICE (+121⁄2) over Smu
RATING 2 HAWAII (-9) over Louisiana Tech
RATING 1 KENTUCKY (+21⁄2) over Mississippi
RATING 1 EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10) over Ohio

PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET SAN DIEGO over Arizona by 21

If you’re a Chargers fan the theme song for today’s game in San Diego should be ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. In spite of owning the best net stats of any team in the league by a wide margin (189 net YPG), the Lightning Bolts have only a 1-2 record to show for their efforts. On the flip side, the Cardinals enter 2-1 on the year despite having been outgained an average 87 YPG. To further fuel San Diego’s vehemence they outyarded Seattle, 518-271, last week only to leave a 27-20 loser. Relief comes in the form of a 7-0-1 ATS log in games off a double- digit spread loss, including a 38-13 waxing of Jacksonville in that exact same role two weeks ago. Adding salve to the wound is Zona coach Ken Whisenhunt’s 1-8 ATS mark away from home in games against a foe off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-5 ATS if the foe lost as a favorite in its previous game. Enough of the ‘pointers’. It’s payback time in sunny San Diego.

4* BEST BET Denver over TENNESSEE by 10

For those NFL fans that do not have DIRECTV, or even the RED ZONE package (our latest love in life), the disparate scores of these two teams’ games last week were extremely dissimilar. The Titans beat the Giants in New York, 29-10, as three-point underdogs even though being outgained by 200 yards in the contest. Meanwhile, the Broncos dropped a 14-point decision at home to the Colts despite holding a 154-yard stat advantage in the game. Hence, we have a collision of ‘inside-out’ results with value-a-plenty. Denver’s 8-1 SU and ATS mark in games off a double-digit loss versus an opponent off a straight up underdog win sets the table. Tennessee’s 2-3 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a home favorite off a double-digit win as an underdog under Jeff Fisher clinches it. Pass the remote and tune in to this upset special.

3* BEST BET NY GIANTS over Chicago by 13

We realize coaching in the NFL is no easy task but sometimes you just want to throw your remote at the TV. Take last Monday, for example.
We’re rooting in the home dog Bears and are just looking for them to kick a FG with no time left on the clock. However, they’re trying to score a TD with just under two minutes to go and the Packers still owning two timeouts. We’re not sure who was more foolish: the Bears for trying to score or the Packers for not letting them in the endzone. One thing we know for sure is that the Bears got dominated ‘In The Stats’ for the second straight week and would have not likely been in the game if not for the 17 Green Bay penalties. We also know that the Bears are not very good after appearing on Monday night: just 1-4 ATS away and 1-6-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. To complicate matters for the unbeaten Bears, HC Lovie Smith has not handled success very well, logging a 1-7-1 ATS mark off back- to-back wins versus a foe off back-to-back losses. And the G-Men are certainly off consecutive setbacks, having been outscored 67-24 in the two losses. The good news for Big Blue is that they’re the third of our 100-yard ‘double-inside-out’ contestants this week as they outgained the Titans by 200 yards in the 19-point loss. They’re also a perfect 6-0 ATS in Game Four. And then there were two – unbeatens, that is. (We can’t wait to enjoy this one. There’s only one problem – does anyone have an extra remote?

5* BEST BET Florida over ALABAMA by 6

We cashed our 5* NCAA Game of the Month on our late phones last week as Arkansas gave the defending national champs all they could handle. We’ll double down in this week’s Newsletter as the Gators more than amply fit the bill as our Rest assured Meyer and company will be primed with revenge from last year’s SEC title game. If revenge is the motivating factor, then the following numbers are just icing on the cake. Florida is a near-perfect 8-0-1 ATS as a dog of two or more points and 5-1 ATS versus undefeated opposition from Game Four out. Meyer, himself, is a moneymaking 12-4 ATS as a dog, including 7-0 ATS the last seven with both Utah and Florida. Remember: the bigger the foes the harder they fall, and the Florida head coach is a no-nonsense 6-0 ATS versus .800 or greater foes and a determined 15-4 SU and 14-3-2 ATS versus unbeaten opposition. The Elephants have brought home the cash in the series of late (5-1-1 ATS last seven) but not surprisingly the schools have spilt the last four meetings on the SU scoreboard. The Tide will certainly look forward to returning to Tuscaloosa after last week’s fight in Fayetteville but Bryant-Denny Stadium has been anything but Sweet Home for Alabama backers as the Crimson are 0-5 ATS at home off back-to back road games. As always, our database chimes in with its weekly anti-champion find as it notes: defending national champs are 5-13-1 ATS in Game Five if they are undefeated, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven, 1-7 ATS at home and 1-10-1 ATS when favored by 28 or less points. Look for Florida’s newfound weapon ‘Double’ Trey Burton (6 TD’s last week versus Kentucky) to come up big. Gators outright

4* BEST BET Michigan over INDIANA by 3

While Rich Rodriguez didn’t exactly rip through his non-conference schedule like Sherman marched through Atlanta, the Wolverines are 4-0 for the second straight season under his command. Now it’s time to see if his troops can finally do some damage in Big Ten play. While Denard Robinson seems to be firing on all cylinders and is probable for this tilt, our database notes that Rich Rod has been shooting nothing but blanks when it comes to conference play with the Maize and Blue, sporting a 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS mark, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite and 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS off a SU win. One of those SU wins was a three-pointer in Ann Arbor last year over these same Hoosiers as 19-point chalk – despite being outstatted, 467-372. If you’re still planning on going to war with the Wolverines, we’ll need to arm you with these tidbits of information: Michigan is 0-4 ATS away off back-to-back home games, 0-3 ATS in Game Five and 1-7 ATS versus a conference foe with revenge while Indiana HC Bill Lynch is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS at home off an ATS loss of more than five points. While that should be more than enough ammo to back these juicy dogs, our AWESOME ANGLE puts the finishing touches on this one. Join us as we march with the hosts – shoelaces required!

3* BEST BET BYU over UTAH ST by 14

BYU disappointed us last week in their home loss to Nevada but we’ll show the Mormons ‘Big Love’ for at least another week as HC Bronco Mendenhall looks to rebound from his first-ever three game losing streak. The six-year head coach is now married to freshman QB Jake Heaps with junior signal-caller Riley Nelson lost for the season with a shoulder injury. If this 6-point road-favorite role has you concerned, it shouldn’t: Mendenhall’s pre-nup points out the fact that he is 16-0 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses. There is also value aplenty in this contest. Since Utah State became a lined-team in 1999, the Cougars have never been favored by less than 17 points in this series. In fact, the last time BYU arrived in Logan two short years ago, they were installed as a healthy 29-point choice. We’d lose our liquor license if we didn’t recommend laying less than a touchdown with a bunch of Mormons who have won 22 of 24 SU in this series, including 20 of the last 21 and 10 straight. We’re not sure if Bronco’s boys will be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth time in six years, but we are certain that our TUMBLIN’ DICE article on page two is just the tonic these Mormons need. We’ll drink to that – even if these Provo polygamists won’t. Lay the more than reasonable number under the Friday Night Lights.

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASES

SAN DIEGO over Arizona RATING: 2
ATLANTA over San Francisco RATING: 3
INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville RATING: 4
CAROLINA over New Orleans RATING: 4
CLEVELAND over Cincinnati RATING: 5

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

MICHIGAN over Indiana RATING: 1
BAYLOR over Kansas RATING: 1
NAVY over Air Force RATING: 2
UTEP over New Mexico RATING: 3
NEVADA over Unlv RATING: 4
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Ball State RATING: 4
BYU over Utah State RATING: 5
BOISE STATE over New Mexico State RATING: 5

POWER SWEEP

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

4* SAN DIEGO over Arizona
LY after 3 games with Warner at the helm the Cardinals were avg 335 ypg with 19 ppg for a 1-2 start. Warner had 288 ypg (66%) with a 4-4 ratio but thanks to the consistency around him he got better as the year went along. TY after 3 games the Cardinals are 2-1 and avg 291 ypg with 16 ppg. Anderson has only hit for 190 ypg (52%) with a 3-3 ratio but LW was the 1st week that he had RB Wells (75 yds 5.4). Fitzgerald however is still struggling with his knee injury and only had 2 rec (13.0) vs the Raiders. Overall SD’s #7 pass defense has been pretty stout holding Cassel to 68 yds, Garrard to 173 yds and Hasselbeck to 220 yds thru 12Q. LW without RB Mathews the Chargers struggled and gained only 89 yds on the ground (4.2). There is a different dynamic here facing an ARZ team that is allowing 146 ypg (4.3) on the ground and has not been able to establish drives losing the TOP in all 3 games by 6, 18 and 6:00. By taking the home team in Cardinals games you are 10-3 ATS with the only 3 losses coming in LY’s reg ssn finale as they were resting players, were still adjusting to life with Anderson vs STL and caught an inspired OAK team LW. Lost in LW’s loss with horrible special teams play (101 and 99 yd KR for TD for 2nd time in 15 games) was Rivers torching a comparable secondary for 455 yds. SD throttled JAX at home 2 Wks ago who were off a win vs a lower tier team at home and travelling and the Chargers do the same here. FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 42 Arizona 17

3* NY GIANTS over Chicago
The Bears are off LW’s MNF game vs GB (2-6 ATS away afterwards) and they could have a commanding lead in the NFC North. While Giants OL isn’t what it used to be (14 games w/o 100 yd rusher) their defense should continue to improve as the year goes on. CHI has done a solid job of adapting to Martz’ offense with 386 ypg and 23 ppg so far with Cutler sticking to 5 step drops. The Bears however are now off a road upset at Dallas and are on a short week off a division Monday Nighter. The Giants are off B2B losses and while they were outplayed at Indy 2 weeks ago LW they finished with a 471-271 yd edge but were done in by -3 TO’s. That type of sloppy performance under HC Coughlin will have the Giants wishing they were back in training camp. LY NYG started 5-0 and a mid-season swoon of 4 straight losses basically ended their season. Now sitting at 1-2 a third straight loss would be devastating. We also like the matchup of NYG’s front 7 against the Bears OL which is being protected by a slew of short drops and isn’t very physical. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 Chicago 17

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* PITTSBURGH over Baltimore
Including playoffs PIT is 4-1 SU and ATS in the series. Playing without Roethlisberger, Polamalu and DE Smith in the 1st game the Steelers lost 20-17 in Dixon’s 1st career start. Dixon threw a 4Q int that set up a 29 yd FG for BAL (393-298 yd edge) that was the difference maker. With Roethlisberger back for the 2nd game, PIT needed a 38 yd FG for the win with 5:25 left as RB Rice ended PIT’s 33 game streak of holding RB’s to under 100 yds. PIT is 12-3 ATS as a Div dog and this will be the 1st time they are a Div HD since WK 4 2000 (4-0 HD since). PIT is 3-0 thanks to its defense which has held foes to 278 ypg and 2 offensive TD’s. They have held the #1 RB in the L3 games to 89 total rushing yds (2.2). They now have a bye on deck (7-2 ATS before) and the natural reaction for most teams would be to exhale. However they now take on a BAL team that allowed 173 yds (6.0) to CLE which trailed 17-14 going into the 4Q. Flacco redeemed himself with 262 yds (71%) with 3 TD’s vs LY’s #29 pass defense (#12 now). After being held to 10 pts by the Jets and Bengals the fact that they only scored 24 vs the Browns isn’t that impressive. PIT has the momentum, homefield advantage and their defense will once again be the deciding factor here. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 Baltimore 17

2* CLEVELAND (+) over Cincinnati
The dog has covered 6 straight. CLE took CIN to OT in the 1stmeeting keeping with a solid all around effort (395-375 yd edge w/ 223 return yards by Cribbs). In the 2nd game CIN won 16-7 (13 pt HF) as they focused on grinding out a win with a 210 (4.7) to 58 (3.2) yd rush edge as they had a 16:22 TOP edge. Despite a 299-119 yd edge for the first 3.5Q vs CAR with a rookie QB making his 1st start the Bengals struggled to put the Panthers away. Palmer is not the same QB as his 2007 self and was extremely lucky to only have 2 int’s on the day as CAR defenders dropped another 4. CIN settled in for the 2nd half and went back to RB Benson who reestablished himself with 81 yds (3.0) for ball control. After losing 2 games they should have won and not having 5 starters LW (lost RT St Clair on 1st drive) CLE played very hard vs BAL. RB Hillis had an impressive 144 yds (6.5) vs the Ravens defense but the Browns let another 4Q lead slip away. CLE was held to 8 yds in the 4Q and the moral victory confirms that despite a loss of public support the players still support the coaching staff. CIN isn’t as crisp as they were projected to be and we’ll side with the HD that despite their record is better than LY’s version at this time. FORECAST: CLEVELAND 17 (+) Cincinnati 14

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

4* Florida St over VIRGINIA
FSU is 13-2 all-time vs UVA (10-5 ATS) but last met in ‘06 (33-0 FSU shutout). FSU has outgained UVA in every gm S/’97 (10 gms, +205 ypg) but the Cavs did pull the upset 26-21 in FSU’s last trip here in ‘05. FSU rolled to an easy 31-0 win over WF LW, delivering a 4H Key Selection on these pages. The Noles pitched their first ACC shutout S/’03 holding WF to just 185 yds (2nd gm in a row opp under 200 ttl yds). Ponder threw for 200 for the 1st time TY and is now avg 168ypg (61%) with a 7-1 ratio. His fav targets are Easterling (14, 17.0) and Reed (23, 9.1) while the top rushers are Jones (284, 7.7) and Thomas (185, 5.6). LW UVA had a record setting day in their 48-7 win over VMI. The Cavs rolled up 341 pass yds, the most in a gm S/’03. Three diff QB’s threw a TD in the same gm for the 1st time since before ‘50 and it was the 1st time ever at UVA that 2 Fr threw a TD in the same gm. UVA finished with 25-8 FD and 341-133 yd edges. QB Verica avg 232 (61%) with a 5-1 ratio. His top rec’s are Burd (18, 14.4) and Inman (15, 14.3). The top rushers are Payne (217, 5.4, 5) and Jones (207, 6.5). While FSU has all the edges (off #19-79, D #14-38 and ST #16-86) and we’ll go right back to the Noles this week. FORECAST: Florida St 31 VIRGINIA 17

3* SOUTHERN MISS over Marshall
The last 3 have been decided by a total of 15 pts. LY, MU had the yd edge (+69) but all’d 7 sks, a KR TD and was also -3 TO’s in the 27-20 defeat. MU HC Holliday earned his 1st victory LW surviving on the final play for a 24-23 win over Ohio. MU all’d a 36 yd TD pass with no time left, but OU’s 2 pt conv fell inc. S Miss rushed for 192 yds and forced 4 TO’s holding off LA Tech LW for a 13-12 win. While the visitor has won 3 in a row SU and last time here Marshall pulled the outright upset as a 2H on these pages and a Big Dog Play on the PPH. The Herd is 13-26 ATS as an AD and 8-11-1 ATS in CUSA AG’s (5-15 SU). The Eagles do have a crucial home meeting with EC on deck but have the talent edge here and should prevail. We won’t let LW’s close win for SM scare us as they are a strong home team while Marshall has struggled on the road. FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 34 Marshall 17

3* Ohio St over ILLINOIS
IL is 1-15 SU in B10 openers incl LY’s 30-0 loss to OSU in a rain stormin Columbus. The visitor is 8-2 SU in the series! The L/4 times hosting OSU, IL has faced a #13 ranked or higher Bucks squad covering 3. OSU has won its L/7 here (last loss in Champaign in ‘91) by an avg of 29-11 but is 3-6 ATS overall vs UI. However, OSU is 15-4 ATS in B10 RG’s and 15-5 as a B10 AF. IL rFr QB Scheelhaase is avg 127 ypg (54%) with a 3-3 ratio and 204 rush yd. RB Leshoure has 398 yd (6.9) incl 4 straight 100 yd gms. Illini D allowed MU’s QB Gabbert 281 pass yd (71%, 2-0 ratio) and NI’s Harnish 208 pass (76%, 117 rush yd) but faces its biggest challenge yet vs Heisman contender Pryor (235, 66%, 10-2 ratio, 269 rush yd) who accounted for 6 TD’s in LW’s win over EM. OSU scored its most pts S/’50 (73) with a 645-248 yd edge with the 2nd and 3rd string QB’s also leading TD drives. After allowing just 2 off TD’s coming in, OSU actually allowed 3 TD drives to the Eagles. We respect the series history but also OSU’s spread streak (4-0 ATS TY) so we’ll keep our money on the Scarlet and Gray. FORECAST: Ohio St 41 ILLINOIS 13

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Michigan over INDIANA
LY UM survived Indy 36-33 despite the most yds (467) and pts theHoosiers have had in the series as they got inside UM’s 20 5x but kicked 4 FG’s and missed 1. IU has dropped 16 straight to the Wolves and UM has been favored by an avg of 20 ppg the L/19Y. IU is 1-6 ATS in B10 openers and 12-22 as a HD. The Wolves have been a B10 AF just once under Rich Rod (0-1 LY). With just a 21-14 UM lead over BG LY’s QB st’r Forcier came off the bench to hit 12-12 for an inj’d Robinson (knee) in the Wolves 65-21 win in which they had a 721-283 yd edge. Rod said the NCAA’s rush leader Robinson (688, 8.7) could’ve ret’d and he is avg 183 ypg (71%) with a 4-1 ratio. UM is #35 pass eff D (264, 56%, 5-6 ratio). Chappell (#6 NCAA pass eff) threw 4 TD passes in Indy’s 1st 5 poss as IU jumped out to a 35-13 3Q lead over Akron but they did not cover as they all’d a late 3Q TD and ended the game at the UA4. IU is #1 B10 pass off (304) but is last in rushing (113, 3.9) with weaker #’s each wk vs a soft sked (NCAA’s easiest at #120 thus far). Hoosiers are allowing 177 rush ypg (5.2) and haven’t faced an offense with the speed of the Wolves. We’ve cashed many times going vs the Hoosiers at home vs the B10’s “Big Two” (OSU and Mich, IU is 0-5 ATS) and will continue to ride that trend. FORECAST: Michigan 51 INDIANA 30

2* BAYLOR over Kansas
The HT is 8-1 SU all-time but just 1-3 ATS the L/4. BU was waxed in the last meeting in ‘07 vs a #20 Orange Bowl bound KU squad, 58-10 (+26’) in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have never won in Waco (0-4) only coming up a combined 4 pts short the L/2. KU is 0-5 SU/ATS on the road including a 31-16 Friday night loss at SM 2 wks ago in QB Webb’s 1st road start. LW KU took care of business in a 42-16 win over NMSt in which the Hawks had 501-275 yd and 26-14 FD edges. RFr Webb is avg 189 (62%) with a 5-1 ratio in his 1st 3 sts. True frosh RB Sims has 290 (5.5) while also starting the L/3. KU is #5 by the NCAA’s standard in pass D (129) but #97 in our pass eff D (59%, 2-3) which takes into account the opps faced. Despite a 60 min weather delay, BU rebounded from the TCU debacle to win 30-13 at Rice with a 456-296 yd edge. QB Griffin is avg 243 ypg (59%) with an 8-2 ratio and 157 rush yd. BU’s D has allowed just 1 TD TY vs tms who aren’t TCU. BU has edges across the board and gets 1 win closer to their bowl goal. FORECAST: BAYLOR 31 Kansas 17

2* W MICHIGAN (+) over Idaho
WM leads the series 2-0 SU (1-0 ATS) as the Broncos defeated the Vandals 27-16 in the first meeting in Kalamazoo (in ‘72) before WM topped UI 51-28 (-8) in the Kibbie Dome in ‘08 as a 4H LPS Winner for us. UI is on its 3rd AG in 4 wks and is in a rare trip to the Midwest but LY did beat NI 34-31 (+15’) with the Huskies fresh off their upset of Purdue. UI is coming off a tough 36-34 (-7’) loss at Colo St (FG as time expired) despite a 347 yd and 3 TD outing by QB Enderle who is avg 258 ypg (65%) with a 7-7 ratio. The Broncos are fresh off a bye and will host the Vandals for HC here. QB Carder is avg 307 ypg (64%) with an 8-6 ratio and is #7 in the NCAA in ttl off (321 ypg) and has a pair of WR’s with 25 catches each in White (27 rec, 14.1) and Nunez (25 rec, 8.2). UI covered its first 3 gms TY before LW’s loss while WM is on a 3-13 ATS skid. With Idaho still learning how to win consistently, a last second loss will be tough to overcome especially on a second straight road gm. WM, off a bye, for their HC crowd. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN (+) 37 Idaho 27

RED SHEET

Texas Tech 45 - IOWA STATE 24
Line opened at TexasTech minus 9, and is now minus 8. This contest sets up very nicely, in light of the humbling of the normally highly productive offense of the Raiders in their debacle vs Texas. As we wrote in Pointwise, much needed bye followed loss, so look for kinks to be worked out, as they still have talent galore, even if they don't have Leach prowling the sidelines. Thus, a patented bounceback setup vs the proper opponent. The Cyclones have failed in both dog roles thus far, rank 106th in total "O", & 99th in scoring. And have an ailing QB in Arnaud. RATING: TEXAS TECH 89

BAYLOR 36 - Kansas 13
Line opened at Baylor minus 8½, and is now minus 10. A week ago, we had the Bears on all 3 services, including a Phone 4 Star Play, & they came in like clockwork. Have yet to stay with the powers, but certainly show that they are an excellent play in the role of solid chalk (13-pt & 9½-pt covers thus far). Return of do-everything QB Griffin is the key, of course (268 yds & 3 TDs last week). The Jayhawks have fallen on hard times, & altho they stand at 2-2 in the early going, fact of the matter is that they are green (suffered 12 sacks in first 3 gms), & Baylor "D" improved. RATING: BAYLOR 89

Navy 24 - AIR FORCE 23
Line opened at Air Force minus 10½, and is now minus 10. The dog has been king in this hard fought series, which has seen 6 of last 9 decided by 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, & 3 pts, with the only oddball being 31-20 in '07 (an average final score of 26-21, with the Middies taking all 7, both SU & ATS). By the way, this is the largest spread in this rivalry since '03's 14-pt line. Oh, the Middies have covered the last 7 vs the Falcons. We are very aware of the fact that AirForce reversed a horrid trend just 3 weeks back, in destroying BYU, as the Coogs had formerly owned them. So Mids will be ready. RATING: NAVY 88

HAWAII 44 - Louisiana Tech 24
Line opened at Hawaii minus 11, and is now minus 9½. This series is owned by the host squad (7-1 ATS), & with the Bulldogs of LaTech still trying to adjust to coaching changes, this trip to the islands couldn't have come at a more inopportune time. The host has ruled in Tech games of late, covering 20-of-26, which is reflected in that 48-16 bashing in their only guest shot so far (TexasA&M). Enter the Rainbows, which represent just the latest in a long line of this school's proficient aerial editions. They lead the land in passing (405.5 PYpg), & QB Moniz off a 6-TD game. RATING: HAWAII 88

UCLA 56 - Washington State 7
Line opened at UCLA minus 27, and is now minus 26. As we wrote in Pointwise, we've been on the wrong end of a few better-than-average Cougar showings of late, always seeming to catch them as they manage to sneak under the spot. Although this may seem another nice spot for WSt to stay under the 4-TD line, catching the Bruins off LW's shocking rout of powerful Texas. However those early Uclan losses to KansasSt & Stanford (9 & 29 pt ATS setbacks), have served to keep their feet firmly entrenched. Cal on deck, but Bruins will take care of business. RATING: UCLA 88

Washington 23 - PHILADELPHIA 20
Line opened at Philadelphia minus 6 and is now minus 6½. This one came down to the Giants, or these 'Skins, who are in off a total embarrassment, losing by a couple of TDs to the formerly 1-27 Rams (20 pt ATS loss). But that one was a classic flat spot setup, as Washington was in off an OT loss to Houston, after building a 17-pt late in the 3rd, & with this game on deck. Everyone knows that this is "McNabb Returns to Philly" week. Eagle QB Vick has been superb, but it has come vs questionable competition, with this 'Skin "D" among the best. Could be a classic.. RATING: WASHINGTON REDSKINS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): OklahomaSt, Michigan, NoCarolinaSt -- NFL: San Diego, NY Giants, Miami

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Indiana (+15 to +10½); Buffalo (+9 to +5); NCSt (+6 to +3); Wisconsin (+2½ to Pick); Minny (+6½ to +4); OleMiss (Pick to 2½); Iowa (-4½ to -7); Oregon (-4½ to -7); Oklahoma (-2 to -4); Tulsa (-8½ to -10½); Georgia (-2 to -4); Pitt (-18 to -20); ArkSt (+6½ to +4½); FlaAtlantic (+23 to +21) - NFL: Colts (-7 to -8½) - TIME

CHANGES: NCSt/VaTech: now 3:30; Colo/Ga: now 7:00 - KEY INJURIES: Out for Season: BYU QB Nelson (knee) - Out this Week: Purdue QB Marve (knee) - Doubtful: CentFla QB Harvey (knee); NewMex QB Holbrook; Temple RB Pierce; Tulane QB Griffin (shoulder) - Questionable: BG QB Schilz; NoCaro RB White (ankle); TCU RB Wesley (concussion); Tenn RB Poole (thigh); WVa RB Devine (toe) - Probable: Clemson QB Parker (back); Conn RB Todman (arm); Fla RB Demps (foot); GA WR Green (suspension); Indiana LB Replogle (concussion); IowaSt QB Arnaud (shoulder); Kent RB Jarvis (groin); Mich QB Robinson (knee); MidTenn QB Dasher (suspension); OregSt WR/KR Rodgers (concussion); Rut QB Savage (ribs); VaTech RB Williams (hamstring) - NFL: Out: Saint RB/KR Bush (fibula) - Doubtful: Denver RB Moreno (leg); Steeler QB Roethlisberger (suspension); Ram RB Jackson (groin) - Questionable: Brown QB Delhomme (ankle), & RB Harrison (thigh); Lion RB Best (toe); Texan WR Johnson (ankle); Charger RB Mathews (ankle) - Probable: Raven RB Rice (knee)......

CKO

11 *OKLAHOMA ST. over Texas A&M
Don’t look for a lot of defense in this one, as these two Big XII South rivals are still working to add athletes to their stop units so they can compete with the likes of Texas & Oklahoma. Offense these two teams have, however, and plenty of it. But pointspread is cheap enough to take a chance on the explosive home team, which boasts weapons such as RB Kendall Hunter (158 ypg rushing), QB Brandon Weeden (11 TDs, 2 ints.), and WR Justin Blackmon (24 recs., 8 TDs). Yes, the stats for their Aggie counterparts are nearly as gaudy. However, the A&M defense “traveled” so poorly LY (47 ppg) that we can’t count on that unit to hold the fort very often vs. new, creative Cowboy offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Insiders say the Aggies still have some concerns about the shoulder of QB Jerrod Johnson, who had surgery in the offseason. A&M has had nine turnovers its last two games vs. La Tech and Florida International. Such sloppiness will be fatal on this field.

10 NORTHWESTERN over *Minnesota
With these two Big Ten programs heading in opposite directions, we concur with Big Ten scouts who urge us to buck a troubled Minnesota squad (recently suspended key WR Stoudemire) that has unexpectedly dropped 3 straight home games. In demoralizing 34-23 loss vs. MAC rep Northern Illinois (Huskies only 2-33 previous 35 vs. Big Ten!), the Gophers missed tons of tackles, had a holding penalty nullify a TD run, had a blocked punt, and couldn’t convert on a couple of 4th-and-one plunges. Moreover, UM’s new o.c. Horton (3rd in 3 years) is still hell-bent to establish a run attack despite rushing for fewer than 100 yds. in the last two games. And those skimpy numbers won’t improve vs. Cats’ active front 7, which has allowed 162 YR combined last 2 games. On other side, look for NW’s torrid dual threat QB Persa (80%, 8 TDs, just 1 int.) to dissect a young, unphysical Gopher defense (starting 7 frosh or sophs) unable to apply any pressure (meager 2 sacks TY). “Fire Brewster” chants (heard last week) sure to increase in volume after Fitzgerald’s squad goes to 10-2 vs. spread last 12 away from home.

10 NOTRE DAME over *Boston College
Notre Dame stepping down a level or two in class after facing Michigan, Michigan State and Stanford teams that are a combined 12-0 this season. Boston College is clearly in rebuilding mode, as red flags appearing every week. First BC was very sluggish offensively in non-cover wins against Weber State and Kent State, and then last Saturday’s disappointing shutout loss at the Eagles’ homecoming game at the hands of Virginia Tech has prompted a change. BC HC Frank Spaziani will bench starting QB Dave Shinskie in favor of either soph Mike Marscovetra or true frosh Chase Rettig. Not a good sign for Spaziani or the Eagle attack. ND QB Dayne Crist leads the 7th-ranked pass attack into Alumni Stadium, and he represents a huge edge for the Irish. Crist threw for 673 yards and 5 scores in the last two games, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities as BC QBs suffer through the learning curve, and the Eagle offense continues to go “three-and-out” far too often.

10 FLORIDA over *Alabama
Rare indeed is a chance to recommend Florida with the benefit of a bonus from the oddsmakers. To wit: the Gators haven’t been posted as an underdog since a 2007 date at LSU, and have received points only three times (all covers) since HC Urban Meyer arrived in 2005. Moreover, Meyer’s teams at Utah and Florida have covered all seven of their chances as an underdog since 2003. And the Gators seem to be catching an updraft, especially after true frosh QB/ WR Trey Burton emerged as a force when scoring a school-record 6 TDs in last week’s 48-14 dismemberment of Kentucky. It’s tough to pick against Bama, but some cracks appearing in Tide foundation, especially in Nick Saban’s rebuilt “D” that has registered only 4 sacks thus far and sprang many leaks against Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett (357 YP) last week. With UF hellbent to avenge bitter SEC title game loss last December, it’s hard to pass up Gators at this price.

10 DENVER over *Tennessee
Run vs. the pass? After fighting through the shock, sorrow, and distractions of last week’s suicide of teammate Kenny McKinley, the aerial-minded Broncos should be in a better state of mind this week. And QB Kyle Orton seems to be in better command of the Denver passing attack each game. Last week, WRs Jabar Gaffney (12 catches for 140 yards) and Brandon Lloyd (6 for 169) played with consistency and flair last week, adding their talents to speedy Eddie Royal and 6-3, 230 rookie Demaryius Thomas. Yes, the Denver defense will be challenged to contain Titan RB Chris Johnson. But QB Vince Young has been showing lots of hesitation and off-balance throws the past two games, and he’s demonstrated before that it’s easy for opponents to get into his head if everything isn’t going well. Tennessee makes a much better underdog than a favorite (4-10 last 14 laying points).

NINE-RATED GAMES: MICHIGAN STATE (+1½) vs. Wisconsin—Spartans have the QB and pass-run balance to beat the Badgers; do they have the defense and leadership with HC Dantonio sidelined?...EAST CAROLINA (+10½) at North Carolina—Pirates always fired up vs. their “big brothers” in the Tar Heel State; ECU catching UNC with some of its best players out...NEVADA (-19½) at Unlv—Rebels in a state of flux; Wolf Pack never hesitates to hammer UNLV if it can...FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+18) over Pittsburgh—Panthers’ offense struggling; improved FIU getting used to stepping up in class...BALTIMORE (+1½) at Pittsburgh (NFL)—Ravens win this one or fall two games behind the Steelers even before Big Ben returns; Baltimore defense can exploit some holes in the Pittsburgh OL.

TOTALS: OVER (42) in the Denver-Tennessee Game—The weapons of each team should be able to do their thing most of the game...OVER (45) in the New England-Miami Game—Rookie TEs Gronkowski & Hernandez give Brady even more firepower; Pats have gone “over” all three TY.