Newsletters Sept. 24-28

Pointwise Newsletter

College...(Key Releases 9-9 50%, "1" rated picks are 2-4 33%)
1--Air Force over San Diego State 40-13
1--Penn State over Iowa 31-13
2--Miami, FL over Virginia Tech 33-20
3--TCU (+) over Clemson 24-13
4--Auburn over Ball State 51-10
4--Mississippi over South Carolina (THURSDAY) 41-27
5--Pittsburgh over NC State 31-13
5--Oregon (+) over California 27-24

NFL...(Key Releases 2-6 25%)
3--Green Bay over St. Louis 27-13
3--New England over Atlanta 31-17
4--Pittsburgh over Cincinnati 27-13
4--Baltimore over Cleveland 38-13
5--Chicago (+) over Seattle 16-17

Power Sweep

KEY SELECTIONS

4* BYU over Colorado St - BYU’s BCS and National Title hopes were dashed LW getting routed at home 54-28 to FSU. The loss snapped their 18 game home winning streak. Despite the lopsided score BYU was only outgained 512-473 but were -5 in TO’s. Meanwhile, CSU is off to their best start (3-0) since 1994. LW they upset (+3’) Nevada 35-20 thanks in large part to a +5 TO margin. Despite the tm success, CSU QB Stucker has struggled in his 1st ssn avg 192 ypg (50%) with a 4-3 ratio. Don’t expect his performance to improve going up against a fired up BYU D who was embarrassed against the Noles. Meanwhile, BYU QB Hall is having a solid season avg 315 ypg (69%) but only has a 6-6 ratio. BYU’s veteran team should be focused to avenge LW’s loss as they start their run at a 3rd MWC Title in 4 years. FORECAST: BYU 44 Colorado St 13

3* CLEMSON over Tcu - Last week we won our Sept 5H GOM with Clemson over BC. This is a dangerous spot for Clemson as they are in an ACC sandwich while the Frogs are in between Texas St and SMU and will be sky high for any matchup vs a BCS school. TCU just traveled to the East Coast and dispatched UVA 30-14 and may be the most talented non-BCS team (just like LY). Both teams have excellent D’s (TCU #7 vs CU #9). CU QB Parker is avg 174 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Spiller, who sat out the 4Q LW with a recurring toe inj and was only at 85% to start the game, is avg 210 all-purp ypg. TCU QB Dalton is avg 207 ypg (74%) with a 3-2 ratio. RB Turner has rushed for 324 yds (9.0!). TCU’s ranking assures Clemson’s focus here.
FORECAST: CLEMSON 20 Tcu 13

3* GEORGIA over Arizona St - ASU was sky high for LY’s HG in the desert but GA was never challenged winning 27-10 (-7). This time UGA gets the large edge of ASU making their first trip to the deep South this decade. ASU is off of 2 creampuff matchups vs Idaho St and ULM (44-9 avg win) and has QB Sullivan (193 ypg, 57%, 1-0 ratio) making his 1st career road start (HC Erickson is 1-3-1 as an AD with ASU). UGA is off of a tough 1st 3 gms but did have an offensive outburst vs Ark LW as UGA actually almost gained as many yds LW (530) as they did in the 1st 2 wks (565) combined. Stats lie here, however, due to the strength of schedule (UGA #6, ASU #119) as UGA has been outgained by a 406-365 clip while ASU has dominated the yardage category w/a 373-150 avg edge. UGA is 9-3-1 ATS vs non-conf opp and should run away with their 2nd str convincing win vs ASU. FORECAST: GEORGIA 37 Arizona St 13

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

NORTH TEXAS (+7') over Middle Tennessee

Both are coming off BCS road games and MT is in a clear sandwich after beating MD for the 2nd straight year LW with the Troy game up next week which is its third consecutive road game. NT is off a throw away loss to Ala behind backup QB Tune as Dodge (167 ypg, 66%, 2-1 ratio) missed, but he is scheduled to return. With Dodge, NT won at BSU and led Ohio at home 17-13 when he was inj. MT QB Dasher is the offense with 80% of the team’s total. MT may be without RB Turner (knee) who had 159 yds and 5 TD’s and a 92 yd KR TD LY, as he DNP vs MD LW. LY MT had a 39 pt win and 489-364 yd edge while recovering 3 fmbl’s, but NT’s def is much improved (271 ypg vs 2 non-BCS opp TY). NT has dropped the L/3 in this series by 31 ppg. NT hasn’t had a winning season S/‘04 but this year’s team is confident that it can turn it around. MT is sky high but the Mean Green will surprise many when playing a foe in their class.
FORECAST: NORTH TEXAS 27 Middle Tenn 24

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Miami, Fl over VIRGINIA TECH - UM is 2-4 SU (1-7 ATS) vs VT and has topped 16 pts just once S/‘03. LY was a defensive struggle in Miami with VT having a 250-247 yd edge. It was tied 7-7 at the half and Miami did lead 16-7 mid-4Q in a 16-14 win. Both teams have played some big games but Miami had a bye 2 wks ago and has a few extra days rest after playing on Thurs. UM is off to its best start S/’04 and has opened with B2B wins over ranked opp’s for the 1st time S/’88. QB Harris is avg 328 ypg (70) with a 5-2 ratio. The Canes D held GT to just 228 ttl yds LW as we won our Marquee GOM on the ‘Canes. VT was held to just 155 ttl yds vs Bama in the opener and 11 FD vs Neb LW. VT needed an 88 yd drive w/1:51 left to defeat Neb LW. QB Taylor is avg 148 (48%) with a 3-1 ratio. RB Williams has rushed for 342 yds (6.8). UM does have Okla on deck but this game will likely decide the Coastal and rank in the Top 10 for the 1st time S/’05.
FORECAST: Miami, Fl 23 VIRGINIA TECH 17

2* MICHIGAN over Indiana - Indy is 2-13 SU in B10 openers but did win in ‘06 and ‘07. Indy is 7-20 ATS away vs B10 opps incl 0-3 SU/ATS vs Mich. Mich is on their 4th str HG but has a big revenge match vs rival Mich St on deck. Mich is 30-1 in the series winning the L/5 by 30 ppg but Rod is 2-5 as a HF (2-0 TY). UM awoke from just a 24-17 halftime lead to cruise to a 45-17 win over EM in which the Wolves rushed for their most yds (392) S/’03 and finished with a 448-285 yd edge. QB Forcier struggled (7-13, 68 yds) after LW’s heroics. The Hoosiers are 3-0 after a 38-21 win at Akron in which the Zips susp’d their starting QB on Friday and his replacement threw 4 int. QB Chappell avg 225 (68%) with a 3-3 ratio. UM has huge edges all around (#19-91 off, #27-60 D and #26-75 ST) and Rod’s tm opens up B10 play like the good old days.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 41 Indiana 10

2* California over OREGON - Cal snapped a 7 gm losing streak at Autzen Stadium in their last visit here in ‘07 as they forced four 4Q TO’s. LY Cal won 26-16 at home in a downpour with a combined 8 TO’s. The Bears are off to a 3-0 start for the 2nd time in 3 ssns as the offense has been dominant avg 48.7 ppg led by Heisman hopeful RB Best (137 rush ypg, 7.8, 8 TD). UO is off of 2 consec wins and now play their 3rd ranked team in 4 wks, but they looked sloppy again LW vs Utah with QB Masoli completing just 4-16 for 95 yds (3 TO’s). While UO is 18-4 ATS in their 1st conf gm of the yr, the Bears are 6-0-1 ATS (6-1 SU) in their 1st P10 RG. Cal has massive advantages on the OL and DL and should continue their recent dominance of the Ducks, despite having the all important HG vs USC on deck next week. FORECAST: California 31 OREGON 17

Computer Corner

California by 11.5 OREGON 5.0
NAVY by 33.8 Wku 6.3
Middle Tennessee by 2.8 N TEXAS 4.7

OTHER GAMES

Thurs, Sept 24th - Mississippi at SOUTH CAROLINA - Ole Miss has lost their SEC opener SU in each of the L5Y and is 0-11 ATS (2-14 L/16). Ole Miss DC Nix was the DC at SC from ‘05-’07 under Spurrier. Last year SC (+2’) got their first win in Oxford S/’74, 31-24 but Ole Miss was off their upset of then #4 Florida. The visitor is 5-0 ATS in this series and UM is 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. Ole Miss did have a bye and a blowout win over FCS SEL the L2W which was lucky because 31 players came down with the flu, but they should be healthy and rested even on a short week. LW SC came out sluggish and only led 17-16 at the half but outscored FAU 21-0 in the 2H for a comfortable 38-16 win. Spurrier is 2-5-1 as a HD to ranked teams (5-13 SU vs ranked opp) and 3-7-1 as a HD but UM has only been an SEC AF once in the L3Y (0-1 ATS). Another Winner LW!! Want Tonight’s Marquee Winner? Check out the ad to the right!

Fri, Sept 25th - Missouri at NEVADA - MU is 1-0 SU/ATS vs UN winning 69-17 (-26’) LY in Columbia in their 1st meeting. UN is 1-4 SU/ATS in HG’s vs BCS tms but the Pack is 21-3 SU and 2-1 ATS under HC Ault in home openers. The Pack is 0-4 SU and 0-3 ATS vs the B12. MU has an edge on def (#47-85) and ST (#39-113) and the Tigers are 7-0-1 SU vs current WAC tms. MU HC Pinkel is 3-0 SU/ATS vs HC Ault and Pinkel is also 4-0 SU /ATS as a HC vs UN. This is the Tigers’ first “true” AG TY and they are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in “true” road openers under Pinkel, incl a current 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run. The Tigers are on a 6-2 SU/ATS run in AG’s S/’07. MU has a bye on deck and will try to go into the break at 4-0 before starting conf play. Desperate UN is 0+2 being outscored 70-20 and hosts in-state rival UNLV next to close out the non-conf portion of their schedule. Another Winner LW!! Want Tonight’s Marquee Winner? Check out ad to the right!

Sat, Sept 26th - BOSTON COLLEGE 23 Wake Forest 16 - LY BC QB Crane broke his collarbone and rFr QB Davis led BC to a GW TD w/1:12 left (1 yd QB sneak). BC is 2-4 ATS in the series but the HT is 4-1 SU (4-2 ATS). BC is 14-7-2 ATS as a HF but WF is 9-4 as an AD. WF is 1-7 ATS in conf road gms. QB Skinner avg 206 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio. WR D Brown is avg 77 all-purp ypg and Givens 94. BC is 13-3 SU at home. The Eagles’ offense struggled LW and were held to just 54 ttl yds. QB’s Tuggle and Shinskie are avg just 138 ypg (47%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Harris has 194 rush yds (4.2). WF is making its 1st road trip and BC is coming off a loss vs Clemson, which was our Sept 5H GOM Winner.

OHIO ST 34 Illinois 24 - IL is 6-2 ATS in the series. The visitor 8-1 SU with IL winning 4 of 5 in Columbus incl ‘07 when they KO’d the #1 Bucks 28-21 as a 15 pt AD. IL outgained OSU 455-354 in LY’s 30-20 home loss as the Bucks allowed their ssn high in yds. IL is 6-0 ATS as a B10 AD. The Illini are off a bye after a dreary opener vs MO and playing most of IL St w/o QB Williams (inj’d on 1st play) who will play in this one, along with banged up WR Benn (only 1 rec in ‘09). IL rec’d a blow LW when their top D player LB Wilson (neck surg) was ruled out for the ssn. The Illini are 1-14 SU in B10 openers (1-3 under Zook) but have covered 4 of L/5. OSU rebounded to shutout Toledo 38-0 as the Bucks dominated with 23-9 FD and 522-210 yd edges. QB Pryor had his best performance of the ssn (372 ttl yd and 4 TD) but the Bucks running gm is still a concern as the top performance by a RB thus far is Herron’s 72 yd vs Navy in the opener. OSU has a large edge on D (#6-69) and ST (#9-97).

Minnesota 24 NORTHWESTERN 21 - The visitor is 13-1 ATS and the dog is 5-2 ATS. Minn has lost B2B gms in agonizing fashion vs NU and is 1-7 in B10 road openers. LY UM QB Weber had a career high 51 att’s but threw a pick 6 w/:12 left in a 24-17 loss. NU QB Kafka started for an inj’d Bachér and rushed for a B10 QB record 217 yds. NU rallied from a 17-0 deficit to lose nail-biter vs Syr as the GW FG was set up by a Kafka int with :56 left. Kafka avg 247 ypg (74%) with a 3-2 ratio after setting NU rec’s for comp % and by hitting his 1st 16 passes vs the Orange. The Cats are banged up with 4 potential starters (RB Simmons, CB McManis, CB Vaughn and LB Williams) out vs SU (check status) and DE Wootton not 100% TY. Minny rallied to tie Cal at 21 going into the 4Q before the Bears put it away with 2 TD drives as Weber threw 3 4Q int. Cal did finish with a 415-270 yd edge. UM’s run gm (#109 NCAA 86 ypg, 3.3) is struggling in the new offense but WR Decker is still #3 NCAA in rec ypg (27, 15.4). UM beat Syr in OT in the opener while NW lost on the last play LW but these tms are evenly matched.

TEMPLE 23 Buffalo 16 - UB beat TU on a 35 yd Hail Mary LY, the most miraculous play in UB history. UB is 12-1 all-time vs Temple (only loss in ‘70), incl 3-0 in MAC meetings. The Bulls are on their 3rd road game in 4W but did win here 42-7 in ‘07 with a 273 yd advantage. Gill is 15-6 as an AD (1-1 TY). UB lost their all-time leading rusher Starks for the year just prior to the season and RB Thermilus leads the team with just 164 ypg (3.2). QB Maynard is avg 248 (65%) with a 6-2 ratio thanks to his top WR Roosevelt’s 20 rec (16.2). TU QB Charlton is avg 261 (567%) with a 2-3 ratio incl 205 vs a tough Penn St def. While the Owls are off a short trip to Happy Valley, Buff returns from a long road trip to UCF where they let a 17-7 halftime lead escape them. While the Bulls have a slight edge on off (#106-110) the Owls have a bigger def edge (#55-96) and should be able to corral the Bulls.

WISCONSIN 28 Michigan St 24 - The HT has won L/4 SU (but is just 2-5 ATS) and Wisky is 8-4 SU in the series. These 2 have avg 66 ppg L/6. MSU is off a last minute loss at ND (1st S/’93) and have rival Mich on deck. LY MSU erased an 11 pt 4Q deficit and kicked a 44 yd FG with :07 left for the win with Bielema aiding the Spartans’ cause with a costly PF and using a TO which allowed MSU’s K time to hit the gm winning FG. Wisky is off of a 44-14 whipping of Wofford (led 31-0 at half) despite 4 fmbl by RB’s Clay and Brown. QB Tolzien is #15 NCAA pass eff avg 214 (69%) with a 4-2 ratio. MSU QB Cousins is #14 NCAA pass eff (216, 66%, 5-1 ratio) despite missing an open rec for the possible gm winning TD pass and tossing the gm sealing int at the Irish 4 with :57 left. MSU’s secondary has been torched for 314 ypg (71%) with a 5-1 ratio L2W vs NFL caliber QB’s but take a step down here. This is UW’s 4th str HG and MSU’s 2nd straight away.

Rutgers 31 MARYLAND 24 - In their last meeting in ‘07 Maryland delivered as a Big Dog POW, an outright upset of #10 Rutgers 34-24 (+18’). Rutgers got blown out by Cincy before rolling over Howard. LW RU won its 2nd straight behind a Fr QB defeating FIU 23-15, all’g just 99 yds thru 3Q and giving up 10 pts in garbage time. Savage (PS#12) struggled vs FIU (11-28, 185 yds) and will make his 1st road start. MD was dominated by Cal, squeezed by FCS JM in OT and LW lost to Mid Tenn on a 19 yd FG in the final min, 32-31. MD is all’g 200 rush ypg vs RU avg 203 ypg (4.8) the L/2. MD is rebuilding and has Clemson on deck. Despite inexp at QB, RU has too many weapons and the defense is beginning to look like the unit we expected and the Knights win in College Park.

Boise St 34 BOWLING GREEN 13 - BSU is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs BG. BG is on 6-2 ATS and 14-6 ATS runs. BG is also 8-3 ATS as a HD and has been a HD just twice in the L6Y. BG lost 4 gms LY by 7 or less and has started TY off losing 2 of 3 (L/2) by 7 pts each. LY vs BSU, BG lost 20-7 (outgained 340-307) but missed 2 FG’s and had 3 TO’s inside the BSU30 in the 2H. BSU has the edge on off (#34-92), def (#35-97) and ST (#2-109) and has been very balanced on off TY (231 ypg pass, 197 ypg rush). This is a rare trip to the Midwest for BSU, marking its 1st ever trip to the state of Ohio. BSU is an incredible 38-4 SU and 24-15 ATS under HC Petersen and is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in reg ssn non-conf AG under Petersen winning by an avg of 16 ppg. BSU has outscored its first 3 opp 118-42, outgaining them by 143 ypg TY. BSU has UC Davis up next while BG has its conf opener vs Ohio on deck.

TENNESSEE 30 Ohio 9 - UT is 4-0 vs current MAC tms (1-2 ATS, avg win 33-13) but LY just squeaked past MAC member NI 13-9. Vols have covered 5 straight after UF but do have Aub on deck (SEC sandwich). Ohio (7-5-1 as AD) does have their MAC opener on deck. UT is 6-11 ATS as a DD HF incl a 63-7 (-29’) drubbing of WKU earlier TY. Tenn QB Crompton is avg just 140 ypg (62%) with a 5-7 ratio but RB Hardesty leads the team with 345 yds (5.3). Ohio QB Scott is coming off a career day (236 yds) as he usually splits time with QB Jackson who was out LW (check status). Scott is avg 132 ypg (50%) with a 6-2 ratio. Ohio is struggling on the ground as their top rusher RB Garrett leads with just 169 (4.1) and surprisingly for a Solich coached team they do not have a rushing TD this year. The Vols need to get on track and have the edges on off (#48-102) and def (#8-78) to get the job done.

E CAROLINA 27 Ucf 17 - The Pirates have won L/3 and are 7-1 all-time (5 wins by DD’s) vs the Knights. LY UCF led 10-0 mid-3Q but allowed a game-tying TD with 1:51 left and lost in OT 13-10 at home (+5’). EC is off 2 str losses on the road to BCS foes. LW they were outgained 433-247 by #24 UNC and lost 31-17 (+6). Sr QB Pinkney has struggled TY and is only avg 153 ypg (49%) with a 3-3 ratio. Leading rusher Lindsay (133, 5.8) missed LW (check status). WR Harris leads with 12 rec (9.8). UCF made a QB switch prior to LW and it paid off in spades as Wake transfer Hodges led the Knights to a 23-17 victory over Buff (-3). Hodges is now avg 143 ypg (64%) with a 3-1 ratio. Leading rusher Harvey has 246 (3.5). EC is 8-3 ATS as a conf HF under Holtz and should be excited for their only HG in a 5 week stretch, so we’ll take the well tested Pirates with a little home cooking.

CINCINNATI 41 Fresno St 31 - 1st meeting. Cincy has won 15 in a row SU vs non-BCS teams. LY Fresno traveled to BE country and was outplayed in the 1H by Rutgers but rolled to a 24-7 win. They are 7-7 SU vs BCS teams on the road with 4 losses by a comb 9 pts. Cin returns home after a big win over Ore St, 28-18 (-1). QB Pike is avg 308 ypg (71%) with an 8-2 ratio. Kelly is 7-3 ATS at home and Hill is 2-14 off a SU loss and has lost 10 straight vs ranked teams (skid started USC ‘05). FSU is off a disappointing home loss to Boise 51-34. FSU is avg 270 ypg rush led by Mathews who is avg 149 ypg (9.1!). They now face UC that is all’g 69.3 rush ypg and held LY’s Pac 10 Off POY (OSU Rodgers) to 73 yds. The def edge goes to Cincy (#56-86), who is playing solid despite ret’g 1 str from LY. There will be a big crowd on hand to watch #14 Cincy take advantage of FSU who may not have much left in the tank on a long trip after a tough loss.

span are 4-3 ATS with 3 (-3’) and 1 (-2’) pt wins. Akron is 3-9 SU on the MAC road w/the avg win by 4 ppg and avg loss by 14 ppg. CM is 8-2 as a HF and last time here in ‘06 was actually a dog (+1) and won 24-21. In their ‘07 non-cover CM had a 639-323 yd edge but was SOD 3 times and blew 12 pt leads twice. That game also did not matter in the MAC standings for CM but this year’s does. Akron is off a letdown as they were favored over a BCS team in their 2nd game at their new on-campus stadium but Sr QB Jacquemain was susp indef LW and his backup Soph QB Rodgers threw 4 int in his first start. CM did not show any hangover from their upset of Mich St as they dominated FCS Alcorn St with a 460-236 yd edge. CM is led by QB LeFevour who is avg 176 (69%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 3 rush TD. CM has the def edge (#73-106) and with Jacquemain out have a bigger off edge than the numbers show (#64-73) and catch the Zips at the right time.

Lsu 31 MISSISSIPPI ST 10 - LSU has outscored Miss St by an avg of 42-12 over the last 9 and is 16-1 SU in the series (10-2 ATS). Their lone loss was here in ‘99 and they have won their last 4 trips to Starkville by an avg of 41-3. LY LSU (-24’) was in an Aub/FL sandwich and had a 427-285 yd edge and a 22-13 FD edge but only won 34-24. LSU RB Charles Scott had 141 rush, 2 TD vs MSU LY. LSU is off an easy 31-3 win over Louisiana (though just 330-272 yd edge) but does have big games vs Georgia and Florida on deck. LW MSU (+9) held Vandy to just 157 yds total off in a 15-3 win that ended an 8 gm road losing streak. Miss St is 10-17 as a HD but went 3-0 LY. LSU is on a 4-18-1 spread run (9-17 as AF, 0-8 as DD fav) but usually dominates in this series.

IOWA ST 24 Army 20 - #22 ISU beat Army 28-21(-17) on the road in ‘05, but trailed 14-7 at HT and was outgained 365-229. Army is 1-4 SU vs the B12 but has only been outscored by 5 ppg. Army is 5-1 as an AD (won at EM Wk 1). ISU is 1-4 as a HF and in the only cover was outgained (outFD’d 20-14, +3 TO). ISU snapped a 17 gm road losing streak LW vs Kent St, although KSU was depleted w/inj’s (no starting QB and RB). QB Arnaud bounced back LW from a 4 int day and is avg 150 ypg (55%) with a 3-4 ratio. Army (could be 3-0, up 10-0 vs Duke) beat Ball St LW despite being outgained (-110 yds) for the 1st time TY (+3 TO). True Fr QB Steelman has 228 ttl yds (1st true QB to start at Army in modern era). RB Mealy has 236 yds (10.7). Both tms come in at 2-1 and with the schedules getting tougher for each a win for either would be huge here.

Marshall 23 MEMPHIS 20 - The HT has won all 4 SU (3-1 ATS) in the series. LY Marshall held the Tigers to a regular ssn-low 94 yds rushing and won 17-16 (-4) despite being outFD’d. The L/2 have been decided by 1 and 3. Marshall HC Snyder is just 6-16 as an AD, but Memphis HC West is 7-13 as a HF. The Herd is a off a 17-10 home win over BG as a 4H LPS Winner. Marshall was outgained 393-346, but held the Falcons to just 10 rush yds (0.5!). RB Marshall ran for 186 (8.9), incl an 80 yd TD run. Memphis got their 1st win as they beat FCS foe UT-Martin 41-14. Soph QB Tyler Bass got his 1st career start and was 21-27 for 293 with a 4-1 ratio. Leading rusher Steele (119, 5.0) missed LW and is expected to miss at least 1 more week. These teams always seem to play close games and we like a Marshall team with fewer question marks to come away with a key CUSA road win.

TEXAS A&M 41 Uab 24 - 1st meeting. This is UAB’s 2nd straight road game. UAB is off a 27-14 loss at Troy in which they were outgained 551-285. UAB QB Webb continues to be a one-man show as he is avg 187 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio and also leads team in rushing with 367 (6.4) which ranks #8 in NCAA. UAB has our #113 D facing the Aggies #15 O. The Aggies are off to a 2-0 start as they held on to beat Utah St 38-30 (-18). A&M led 24-14 at the half and outgained Utah St 573-521, but could never put them away. A&M is led by QB Johnson who is avg 336 yds (63%) with a 6-0 ratio. VHT true frosh RB Christine Michael (PS#6) leads with 187 (6.7). WR Fuller has 12 rec (11.3). UAB has a Thur Nite TV game on deck vs conf foe SMiss and A&M is gaining confidence each week, so we’ll side with an Aggie team that is flourishing in the 2nd year of HC Sherman’s system.

KANSAS 34 Southern Miss 24 - 1st meeting. Eagles HC Fedora served as the OC for 3 ssns (‘05-’07) at OkSt (1-1 vs KU). Kan beat Duke LW and has outscored opp TY by a 42-9 avg (+255 ypg). QB Reesing is avg 267 ypg (65%) with a 6-1 ratio. SMiss took out Virginia LW and is 3-0 outgaining foes by 201 ypg (38-18 avg score). QB Davis is avg 200 ypg (68%) with a 5-0 ratio. RB Fletcher has 344 rush yds (5.2) along with 9 rec (10.4). This is the Eagles’ road opener (8th str road opener vs BCS tm, 1-6 SU) and they have a short week ahead with a Thurs Night conf gm on deck but are on a 7-2 ATS road run. Kansas is 12-2 as a HF under Mangino and they have a bye on deck. Both offenses are potent (SM #16-17) but Kansas has the def edge (#44-64) and with a rematch next yr in Hattiesburg, KU should take care of business in Lawrence.

AIR FORCE 31 San Diego St 21 - Air Force has been impressive ranking #1 NCAA (by 55 ypg) rushing for 344 ypg (5.0) but they now face SDSt’s DC Long who was a master at slowing the option while HC at NM. At NM, his units held AF to 70 ypg under their rushing avg. This season the Aztecs have held opponents to 135 ypg (3.8). In their last meeting, SD was without QB Lindley and led 10-7 at HT but then struggled in the 2H. This season Lindley has thrown for 242 ypg (54%) with a 5-1 ratio despite being banged up LW. AF is 5-0 as a conf HF and QB Jefferson inj his ankle LW and did not finish the game. Jefferson made his first start vs SDSt LY as AF rushed for 401 (5.2). SDSt is in their 3rd road game in 4 wks, but favor the well-coached squad in this series in which the dog has gone 10-6 ATS with 5 upsets in 8 yrs.

Vanderbilt 28 RICE 14 - LY Vandy won at home over an experienced Rice team. The gm was tied 21-21 at half, but Rice was shutout in the 2H and lost on the road 38-21 (+8), despite outgaining Vandy 407-344. VU HC Johnson is 1-3 ATS as an AF over 8Y (rare roll) and is in an SEC sandwich. VU is off a 15-3 home loss to Miss St. VU entered the gm #9 in the NCAA avg 277 rush ypg, but was held to just 33 (1.1) by the Bulldogs. True Fr RB Zac Stacy leads with 231 yds (4.9). QB Smith is avg just 122 ypg (45%) with a 1-2 ratio. VU is all’g just 101 ypg thru the air. Rice HC Bailiff is 3-1 as a HD and while Rice is 0-16 vs BCS foes (avg loss 31 ppg), they have already played 2 BCS tms on the road TY. This is the home opener for Rice and they were 6-0 at home LY with an avg win of 51-28. Rice is off a 41-24 loss at Okla St in which the Owls actually outgained OKSt 377-351. The Owls continue to play musical chairs at QB and Shepherd and Fanuzzi have comb to avg 222 ypg (57%) with a 2-2 ratio. Rice is avg just 97 ypg rush. Rice is rebuilding, but VU is in an unfamiliar position as an AF, so we expect this one to stay close to the line.

AUBURN 49 Ball St 6 - Normally this would be a large flat spot for the SEC team between WVirg and Tenn especially when in their last meeting (‘05) Aub won 63-3 with 390 yds rush. Aub is 6-12 as a DD fav but 2-0 TY as they are coming off a losing season and are not taking any game for granted. BSU has its MAC opener on deck which is all they have left as after going through the regular season unbeaten LY, they have now lost 5 str (SU) but ended a streak of 4 str ATS losses as they only lost to Army by 7 (+8). BSU’s offense has struggled as they had to replace the ‘08 MAC Off POY and 3 starters from the OL. BS QB Page is avg 127 ypg (44%) with a 1-2 ratio and RB Lewis, who had over 1,700 yds LY, has just 124. That does not bode well for the Cardinals who face a Tiger D that already has 7 sks and 8 int. Aub QB Todd is avg 242 ypg (54%) with a 6-1 ratio and AU has 2 RB’s who have combined for 631 yds. Neither of these teams are what they were LY (which is a good thing for AU) and the Tigers should be able to shut down Ball St’s feeble offense (#113).

Unlv 27 WYOMING 17 - UNLV is 7 seconds away from a 3-0 start and is now in the rare role of being a conf AF (0-1 ATS L5Y). Wyoming was off to a 2-0 ATS start but covered by a combined 1.5 pts. LW they ran into an angry Colorado squad and lost 24-0 and now have been outgained by a comb 870-503 the L/2 gms. LV QB Clayton threw for 340 yds and 3 TD in their comeback win against Hawaii and should have another solid performance against a WY D that has allowed 283 pass yds per game (61%). WY has used 2 QB’s TY and they have completed only 44% of their passes against two FBS tms. We don’t foresee much improvement as WY OL has all’d 11 sks which has forced the QB’s to hurry their passes. The Rebels have covered 3 straight in this series, are 5-1 ATS in Laramie, have the superior off (#74-117) and have a huge ST’s edge (#59-119).

ALABAMA 37 Arkansas 20 - Bama has won 17 consec SEC openers (5-2 ATS run). The HT is 4-1 SU but the visitor has covered 4 str (Ark 3-0 ATS here). LY we won a 4H LPS on Bama and they got two long IR TD’s in the 1H and while Ark had a 232-227 yd edge Bama led 35-7 and Ark was also SOD at the 1. Bama (-9) rolled up 328 rush in the 49-14 win. Last time here, Ark allowed a 4 yd TD pass with :08 left in the 41-38 loss. Bama’s opening win over VT is more impressive than the 34-24 score indicates as AL outgained VT 498-155 and VT went on to crush Marshall and beat Nebraska. Bama is off 2 Sun Belt tms (crushed NT LW outgaining them 523-187, all’g just 7 FD) while Ark just lost a 52-41 shootout with UGA. QB Mallett set an Ark record with 408 pass yds. Ark is a much improved team and LY beat #20 Aub on the road with a 416-193 yd edge, beat LSU at home in the finale and should have beaten KY on the road. Ark is 9-4 ATS as an AD since ‘05. This is QB Mallett’s first road start at Arkansas and the Tide’s #4 D will be a rude awakening for him after facing just Missouri St and UGA’s maligned pass rush.

Florida 41 KENTUCKY 13 - The Gators have won 22 in a row over UK but are 1-5 ATS as a DD fav vs them. LY UF blk’d UK’s 1st 2 punts which led to 2 short TD drives and led 28-0 before UK got a FD in UF’s 63-5 win (-25). Last time here in ‘07, UF escaped with a wild 45-37 (-7) win with UK QB Woodson starting vs UF’s then-inexperienced secondary and UK didn’t att the spread-tying xp after a TD on the last play. UK had covered 5 in a row in the series prior and the Gators have lost 7 in a row ATS after Tenn. Tebow struggled a bit vs UT’s tough D, throwing a pick and losing a fmbl (115 pass, 76 rush). UF has a bye on deck. After opening 0-7 ATS as an AF Meyer is on a 6-1 run in that role. UK is 9-4 as a HD and is 6-2 ATS vs ranked tms at home S/‘05 incl an upset of LSU in ‘07. The Cats were relieved to get past Louisville by 3 LW and will look to just make it through this one without any inj’s.

FLORIDA ST 34 Usf 14 - 1st meeting. USF has won 3 in a row SU vs non-conf BCS schools incl a win over #17 Aub in ‘07 (6-3 as AD). FSU is just 7-15 ATS as a HF and is off a rare trip out West with their ACC opener on deck. LW the Noles crushed #7 BYU 54-28. It was the most pts they scored on the road S/‘03 and most rush yds (313) since the ‘05 Gator Bowl. FSU’s offense has been impressive facing our #17 (Mia) and #41 (BYU) def and now faces #33 (all’g 228 ypg). USF should be sky high for the battle as they basically opened the year with 3 FCS foes so FSU has a huge sked edge (#14-120). LW USF defeated Charleston So, 59-0 but lost QB Grothe (BE all-time ttl yds leader) for the season to a torn ACL. RFr Daniels (PS#76) will make his first start here. FSU has slight edge on off (#22-38) and def (#28-33) but has a large (#24-74) ST’s edge. FSU will be wearing all white jerseys for the 1st “White Out” in program history. Bowden and the Noles will take care of little brother as they try to return to national prominence.

GEORGIA TECH 24 N Carolina 20 - GT is 9-2 SU but LY #19 NC defeated #22 GT 28-7 as RB Houston ran for a pair of 4Q TD’s. GT did rush for 326 and had a 423-314 yd edge but was done in by -3 in TO’s. In ‘07, GT needed a FG w/:15 left at home 27-25 (-9’). Since taking a 24-0 lead vs Clemson TY, GT has been outscored 60-23. GT is 3-0 off a loss and 3-1 as a HF under Johnson. QB Nesbitt is avg 119 ypg (38%) with a 2-2 ratio and has rushed for 213 yds (4.6). RB Dwyer was inj’d in the 1H LW vs UM and did not return (168 rush yds, 5.6). NC is off to its first 3-0 start since winning 8 straight in ‘97. QB Yates is avg 191 ypg (67%) with a 5-3 ratio. True frosh Highsmith has 10 rec (17.2). NC has a very athletic D-line but GT needs to bounce back after being held to just 228 ttl yds on national TV last Thurs in their 33-17 loss to UM.

N ILLINOIS 34 Idaho 17 - NI leads the series 3-2. The HT is 4-1 SU (0-1 ATS). In the last meeting (‘07) in Moscow, UI led 7-0 but NI scored 35 unanswered incl 3 non-off TD’s en route to a 35-14 HT lead. UI mounted a comeback that came up short (last drive ended at the NI18) in a 42-35 loss despite holding 586-344 yd and 31-17 FD edges. This is already UI’s 3rd AG TY and they’re making a rare trip to the Midwest but are 2-0 ATS in AG’s TY and have show improvement. These two are close on off (NI #90-104) but NI has the edge on def (#83-109) and UI has it on ST’s (#63-88). The Huskies are fresh off a 28-21 win over Purdue marking their first win over a B10 school S/’88 while UI’s 2 wins TY matches LY’s ssn ttl. NI has won both gms in this series in DeKalb (last gm in ‘74). While NI has a solid home field edge, the Huskies are a surprising 2-9 ATS as a HF.

NC STATE 21 Pittsburgh 20 - Last met in the 2001 Tangerine Bowl. Pitt is 3-15 SU in reg ssn non-conference BCS road games. NCSt is in its 4th straight home game and playing with confidence in O’Brien’s 3rd year. NCSt is 6-2 ATS at home. Pitt has 15 ret sts but does have a national TV game vs Louisville next Friday. Wolf Pack QB Wilson has thrown 329 passes without an int, breaking the NCAA record set by UK’s Andre Woodson. Wilson is avg 216 ypg (66%) with an 8-0 ratio. RB Baker has rushed for 169 yds (5.6). Pitt did allow Buffalo 500 yds total offense in their last road game. QB Stull is avg 180 ypg (70%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Lewis has 398 rush yds (5.9) and WR Baldwin has 13 rec (17.3). Pitt is off to a 3-0 start for the 1st time S/‘00 and the Panthers are avg 40 ppg while NCSt’s secondary is inexperienced and battling injuries.

STANFORD 30 Washington 20 - Stanford has upset the Huskies in 2 of the L/3 ssns incl their only victory of ‘06 when they held UW to just 161 ttl yds. It was a tie game LY when UW QB Locker went out for the yr with inj. UW is making their 1st road trip of the yr riding some big momentum with a 2 gm win streak (0-12 LY) after their huge upset of USC in Seattle. The Cardinal are 3-1 for the 1st time S/’04 and could have been 4-0 if it wasn’t for some ?? calls in the 2H vs WF a few wks back. Stanford is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home after their convincing win LW vs crosstown rival SJSt, have a huge ST edge (#6-93) and should continue their impressive ssn here.

KENT ST 27 Miami, Oh 17 - LY MU committed 6 TO’s and the 54 pts all’d were the most S/‘87. KSU hasn’t beat MU in B2B yrs since ‘87-‘88. KSU is 1-6 ATS as a HF and MU is 9-6 as an AD but this is MU’s 4th wk away from home and they have rival Cincy on deck. MU gave up 125 pts, incl 35 to WM, before finally scoring TY and most of those pts were vs WM’s backups as the Broncos gave us a comfortable 3H Small College Winner. KSU played without their top rusher, Jarvis (OFY) and was down to their 3rd string QB, true Fr Keith (PS#153), who threw for 255 yds (66%) with a 2-1 ratio in his debut. MU QB Raudabaugh is avg 190 ypg (53%) with a 2-5 ratio thanks to 288 yds vs WM, but much of that came after WM had the game well in hand. KSU could get QB Morgan back this week but even without him, should be able to score against MU’s #118 defense.

UTAH 31 Louisville 21 - Louisville has lost all 3 SU/ATS to Utah incl ‘07’s 44-35 loss (Utah 18-4 FD edge 1H) at UL! UL is 5-2 SU (5-1 ATS) on the road vs non-conf. Tough spot for UL as they are off their rival, traveling to the altitude and have a Fri gm vs Pitt on deck. LW UL lost to UK 31-27, a game that would have a different outcome if not for leaving so many pts off the board and a fmbl return which set up UK’s GW score. QB Burke will be in his 2nd str road start and is avg 234 ypg (54%) with a 2-3 ratio. Utah is off disappointing loss to Oreg, 31-24, ending the nation’s longest win streak (16). QB Cain (PS#9JC) is avg 237 ypg (57%) with a 4-3 ratio and RB Asiata (PS#17JC) is avg 101 ypg (4.3). Utah puts an emphasis on non-conf gms vs BCS foes (18-7 ATS) and has a bye on deck (18-5-1 ATS prior to bye).The Utes have the def edge (#36-74) and have played the tougher sked (#60-111). Utah will rebound here as this is their 1st HG vs a BCS foe since finishing #2 in the country LY, so fans will be amped up.

Notre Dame 38 PURDUE 24 - Purdue is just 5-18 SU (3-6 ATS) vs ND but has won 2 of L/3 at home. The visitor is 3-10 and the L/6 have been decided by 17 ppg with none closer than 13 pts. LY’s game was tied at 14 before ND’s 24 2H pts (295 2H yds). Purdue is 2-5 as a HD and ND is 4-2-1 as an AF. The Irish are off their 1st home win over MSU S/’93, a 33-30 thriller which was clinched with an int with :57 left. QB Clausen is #2 NCAA pass eff (317, 68%, 9-0 ratio) and played through a foot inj LW. WR Floyd (13, 27.5) broke his clavicle in the 1H and is out for the season. RB Allen (326, 5.5) is the run threat the Irish lacked LY. The sloppy Boilers (3 lost fmbl) lost 28-21 to NI as the Huskies dominated with 280-147 rush yd and 41:40:-18:20 TOP edges in their 1st win over a B10 tm S/’88. QB Elliott avg 225 (61%) with a 4-5 ratio. RB Bolden (#2 NCAA, 421, 6.8) was held to 64 yd LW. The Irish have the firepower to put this out of reach.

TEXAS 52 Utep 17 - While Texas is off their big revenge win vs TT, they have a bye on deck and will remember UTEP only trailed them 28-13 in the 4Q LY. UTEP did have a 412-404 yard edge in the Horns 42-13 road win (-26’). Texas is 18-10 ATS as a HF and after catching UTEP’s A+ game LY when the Miners were excited for a rare visit from UT, this time UTEP has a key gm vs Houston on deck. After a rough start, UTEP got rolling LW at NMSt (340-282 yd edge). QB Vittatoe is avg 201 ypg (55%) with a 1-1 ratio. Texas continued its National Title run LW. QB McCoy is avg 286 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio but still hasn’t had a Heisman type gm (just 205 yds LW and a 1-2 ratio). Texas is 5-1 ATS as a HF of 21+ and should roll once again vs a weaker non-conf opp.

PENN ST 24 Iowa 10 - Iowa is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this series and the dog is 8-2 ATS with 5 upsets. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in Beaver Stadium covering by 13 ppg. PSU is playing with legit revenge as they led 23-14 after 3Q’s but Iowa got a FG on the last play to knock PSU out of the BCS Title gm LY. PSU is 0-3 ATS as a HF TY but won their last HG vs Iowa 27-7 in ‘07 with a 489-194 yd edge. PSU shook off a flu outbreak to beat Temple 31-6 with 21-12 FD and 359-251 yd edges. QB Clark avg 253 (67%) with an 8-3 ratio. RB Royster (236, 5.2) had his 1st 100 yd gm TY vs the Owls. The D has held their 1st 3 to 7 or less for the 1st time S/’96. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 with an impressive 19-8 FD edge limiting the NCAA’s leading rusher Grigsby to 75 yd (58 on 1 carry) and the Cats QB tandem to 10-25 for 105. PSU is 0-5 ATS as a conf HF of 7+ but PSU has the home, off (#24-51) and slight D (#10-14) edges to get revenge in front of a raucous night game crowd at Beaver Stadium.

Texas Tech 41 HOUSTON 38 - 1st meeting S/‘95 for these old SWC rivals. UH is 8-1 SU at home vs non-conf incl a win over OKSt (-1, 34-25) in ‘06 and they beat OKSt again 45-35 as 15’ pt AF 2W ago. Leach is 15-1 SU vs in-state non-conf tms and is 28-7 ATS after a SU loss. Houston is 3-0 ATS off a bye under Sumlin and is ranked for the 1st time S/’91. TT is off a hard fought loss to Texas (414-340 yd edge) and Leach is 7-11 ATS as an AF. UH has the much more exp QB in a battle of high flying offenses although TT QB Potts had a good showing in his first road start LW (427 ypg, 69%, 12-4 ratio). UH QB Keenum is avg 363 ypg (72%) with a 7-1 ratio. TT is ranked #74 in our pass eff D all'g 179 ypg (67%) with a 2-3 ratio while UH comes in at #80 (173 ypg, 60%, 2-1). TT does play better in Lubbock and has the better def (#32-10) so TO’s could be key in what looks to be a high scoring affair.

New Mexico 27 NEW MEXICO ST 17 - We have now gone against the Lobos three times this season using a 4H Key Selection on Texas A&M, a 2H Key Selection on Tulsa and a 3H Key Selection on Air Force LW. NM continues to struggle offensively and defensively as they are learning new schemes under new HC Locksley, but has faced 3 bowl caliber tms all with powerful offenses. QB Porterie has struggled avg 108 ypg (64%) with an 0-2 ratio. Backup QB Holbrook has replaced Porterie in the L/2 games but has not fared any better with an 0-2 ratio as well. NMSt is not off to a good start either barely beating Prairie View A&M and this will be the first road trip for their young QB and OL. The Aggies are off a 38-12 home loss to UTEP which they trailed 31-0 at the half after the game was delayed for nearly 3 hours due to lightning. However, this is a rivalry game and anything can happen when two of the worst FBS teams match up.

USC 55 Wash St 3 - USC’s on deck gm vs Cal lost some of its luster after another disappointing upset for a 2nd consec yr (both after Ohio St wins) as they dropped their matchup to the Huskies in Seattle (-21). USC (360-293 yd edge) lost the TO battle 3-0 as bkup QB Corp (13-22, 110 yds, 0-1 ratio) struggled throughout. USC is 5-1 ATS in the series (avg win 47-13) incl a 69-0 shutout in Pullman LY, a game where the Cougars failed to get past their 45 yd line. The visitor in this series has dropped 5 of the L/7 while WSU is on a 3-7 ATS run vs the P10. This is WSU’s 1st true RG of the ssn and they benefitted LW from 4 SMU int’s (2 ret for TD) in the 2H and OT for the comeback win in QB Lobbestael’s 1st start of ‘09 (239 yds, 46%, 2-2 ratio). USC has covered 4 of their last 5 as a 30+ pt fav, however, and should run away with this one no matter who lines up at the QB.

Arizona 24 OREGON ST 20 - Both teams are off of their 1st losses of the ssn. OSU is on a 9-1 SU run (avg win 31-14) vs UA and LY OSU needed a 24 yd FG on the last play to escape and keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive. It will be interesting to see if OSU turns to LY’s starting QB Moevao (now healthy) here after QB Canfield struggled to throw downfield vs Cincy. UA is just 8-19 SU on the road and while RB Grigsby (108 ypg, 8.6) has been spectacular, QB Scott (4-14, 50 yds, 0-1 ratio) struggled in his 1st road start being pulled for bkup Foles late in the 2H LW. The fav has covered 10 of the L/13 in this series and the Cats have been the more impressive team thus far.

FLORIDA ATL 30 Ulm 27 - The visitor is a perfect 5-0 SU with FOUR outright upsets and ULM led 21-0 LY but missed a clinching 45 yd FG with 1:40 left and gave up a 22 yd TD pass with :20 left to lose 29-28 (+2’). FAU is playing their home opener while ULM is on its 3rd road game in 4 wks. FAU was off a bye and gave an all out effort vs SC trailing only 17-16 at the half. FAU QB Smith is avg 181 ypg (5%) with a 2-3 ratio and has struggled vs the 2 BCS teams but LY at home vs SBC opp avg 300 ypg (56%) with a 14-4 ratio. ULM QB Revell is now making his 1st SBC start and on the year vs 2 BCS opp avg 162 ypg (45%) with a 3-3 ratio. Interesting matchup with ULM 15-3 ATS as a conf dog against FAU which is now 9-3 ATS off a SU loss.

NEBRASKA 41 Louisiana 6 - LY ULL played 2 BCS tms away (Ill and Kan St) but was only outgained by 15 yds losing by 3 and 8 and covering by 34’. Neb has a bye on deck but lost a heartbreaker LW to VT w/:21 left having 18-11 FD and 343-278 yd edges. ULL just played a physical LSU tm on the road, holding their own (only outgained by 58 yds) and makes another tough trip but also has a bye on deck. ULL is 14-8 as an AD. QB Masson is avg 209 ypg (56%) with a 3-3 ratio. RB Sails has 240 yds (4.3). Neb QB Lee is avg 230 ypg (61%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Helu has 381 yds (6.6). Neb has huge off (#28-105), def (#20-89), ST (#47-99) edges and has already beaten 2 better SBC tms TY (avg 44-6) and Pelini is 3-1 ATS off a SU loss.

NAVY 41 Wku 6 - Navy’s only meeting with a Sun Belt team was their 74-62 win over NT in ‘07. Both tms lost to Ball St LY (Navy 35-23, WKU 24-7). Navy is 5-9 ATS as a HF and is in a massive sandwich off their 27-14 loss to Pitt with their rival Air Force on deck. Navy suffered several spec tms errors LW which cost them the gm incl a mishandled punt snap and a missed 32 yd FG. Pitt held Navy to just 218 ttl yds with just 129 (2.8) on the ground. WKU was respectable on the road LY only losing by an avg of 28-11 in 7 AG’s and that incl Ala, VT, KY and Troy, but TY they were blown out 63-7 in their only road gm at Tenn with their top 2 tacklers out with inj (#2 tklr back, #1 out yr). WKU is off a 28-7 loss to FCS #16 C Ark with the Bears being a 2’ pt AF in that gm. WKU has a bye on deck, but Navy will want to right the ship on offense prior to facing an arch rival.

Troy 24 ARKANSAS ST 23 - A rude awakening for Troy as they’ve been outscored 87-6 in their first 2 games after having a 14-0 lead at BG. LW the Trojans got it together with 551-285 yd and 25-18 FD edges in a 27-14 W vs UAB. QB Brown (247 ypg, 60%, 3-4) got the offense moving with 413 pass yds and faces ASU for the 2nd time (181, 65%, 3-0 LY). Troy, of course, is a 3-time defending SBC Champ and has gone 10-1 SU on conf road and is 9-3 ATS away vs SBC. ASU is in a nice scheduling spot off a bye while Troy is in their 3rd road game in 4 wks as the Wolves try to rebound after losing B2B game in the series by a comb 62-9. ASU QB Leonard struggled at Neb as expected (131 yds, 55%, 0-0 ratio) and their OL took a hit losing their best of just 2 ret starters. TY Leonard is avg 130 ypg (57%) in 2 games with a 1-0 ratio. This Champ knows how to handle the up and comers.

Toledo 31 FIU 30 - Under new HC Beckman UT has a turnaround on its mind as LY they may have put it on cruise control in looking ahead to its MAC opener the next week. The Rockets led 13-0 after 1Q but lost 3 fmbl’s and were outscored 21-0 in the 2H and FIU got a rare road win (35-16) vs a FBS foe and did so as a +19’ dog. Toledo is off a 38-0 loss vs Ohio St with their MAC opener on deck and makes a rare trip to Florida. FIU is playing their only HG in the first 1.5 months of the season and are 4-1 ATS in their new FIU Stadium (opened LY). Prior to OSU, UT (28.3 ppg) racked up the pts but has allowed 42.7 ppg. UT is avg 440 ypg while FIU is allowing 455 ypg, but remember FIU allowed just 229 ypg and 18.6 ppg at home LY. FIU is off 2 BCS road games, is in its home opener and with a good D effort will extend UT’s fast paced offense in the heat and humidity.

Wednesday, September 30th - Hawaii at LOUISIANA TECH - WAC opener for both. UH leads the all-time series 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) incl wins in the L/3. UH is on a 5-1 ATS run in AG’s while LT is 4-1 ATS in HG’s. Tech is 3-5 SU but 5-2-1 ATS in WAC gms since joining the conf in ‘01. The HT is 6-1 ATS in this series including a current 5-0 ATS run but UH has covered their 2 away games by a total of 21’ points.

Power Sweep

KEY SELECTIONS

4* MINNESOTA over San Francisco - MIN beat the 49ers 27-7 as an 8.5 pt AF in the last meeting in 2007. While this is the home debut for Favre it’s also the 1st game vs a quality foe after beating CLE & DET. MIN has a huge SNF game on deck as they host GB. MIN is 3-6 ATS as a HF while SF is 4-1 ATS as an AD. The Vikings got a stunning early surprise from DET LW as they fell behind 10-0 mid 2Q & the Lions actually had 11-2 FD & 165-37 yd edges. MIN quickly woke up & outgained DET 228-100 as Favre used short passes (85%) & Peterson (92, 6.1) to play mistake free ball (0 int 1st 2 games). The Singletary coaching regime is off to a stellar start knocking off B2B division foes. They beat SEA 23-10 finishing with a 379-283 edge holding the Seahawks to 32 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. SF is now 5-1 ATS as a dog under Singletary. RB Gore (206 yds 12.9) left LW with an ankle injury vs a SEA defense minus 3 starters. While they did hold SEA to 66 yds rushing (2.9) they face a huge test here vs the best RB in the NFL. SF’s early success must be tempered as it was against a pair of team that finished #19 & #30 in defense LY. MIN D finished #6 LY & they’ve taken care of business TY holding a pair of weak teams to an avg of 257 ypg & 17 FD’s. Look for MIN to start expanding the playbook here & get another win for the 3rd week in a row as our top Key Selection. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 30 San Francisco 17

3* Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI - This is generally an extra home game for Steeler fans who travel very well. CIN fans have not been very supportive with ticket sales it’s likely that 40% of the crowd will be in black & gold. PIT is 7-0 SU & ATS here with a 26-12 avg score. PIT is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS without Polamalu. PIT has a big advantage here with a defense that has 53 sacks the L18 games (just 2 TY though) vs a CIN OL that has given up 56 sacks their L18 with 5 so far. Palmer wasn’t very effective again with 185 (65%) and a 3-2 ratio vs GB. CIN’s defense has looked good to start the year but now they take on a higher caliber team that is firmly entrenched in the system. CIN’s OL will have a tough time getting in sync here vs as they face the best of their 3 straight 3-4 defenses & Palmer needs more time to get his mechanics in order. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 21 CINCINNATI 9

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* OAKLAND over Denver - The Raiders cashed as our Top LPS LW & as a 2H here in PS. OAK is the only team that starts the season with 3 straight division games & are 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS as a favorite but DEN is 2-7 ATS away in division play. The Broncos did beat OAK 41-14 LY as a 3 pt AF to open the 2008 season. While both teams got wins LW the stats were quite different. DEN was at home & after the miraculous week #1 win they dominated CLE outgaining them 449-200 (25-11 FD’s). Oakland meanwhile had no TO’s & despite getting outgained 409-166 they survived Arrowhead. While those numbers may favor the Broncos take at look at Wk #1 when OAK was at home & DEN was on the road. The Raiders outgained SD 366-317 while DEN was outgained in CIN 307-302 with 87 yds on the tipped pass. DEN’s new rush defense has yet to be tested after facing a pair of teams that finished LY #29 & #26 in rush offense & OAK’s run game is of course their strength. You may cringe at QB Russell’s stats the 1st 2 weeks but the one number that sticks out is no int on the road LW. That is exactly what a coach looks for when you have a solid defense & a top 10 rush attack. It’s reality check time & the better team is at home facing an overrated 2-0 squad. FORECAST: OAKLAND 24 Denver 10

2* PHILADELPHIA over Kansas City - Life without McNabb was brutal for the Eagles LW as they couldn’t keep up with the Saints. PHI was basically even in yards at the half (+4) but they fumbled the opening kickoff of the 2H & Kolb was int’d 2 plays into the next drive to give the momentum & 14 pts to the Saints. Kolb was surprisingly good in the game with 391 yds (61%) & a 2-3 ratio. Reid was forced to abandon most of the conservative options of the gameplan in the 3Q making PHI one-dimensional. Reid is 4-9-1 ATS before a bye & CB Samuels, RB Westbrook & WR Jackson were all hurt in LW’s game & their status is unknown. KC dominated the Raiders statistically thru the 1st 3Q with 19-5 FD & 313-77 yd edges in Cassel’s 1st game but drops by the WR’s & bad route running kept the Raiders in the game. KC drove inside the OAK 30 three times but came away with just 10 pts & that was with the loud home crowd on their side. They now have to travel to face an angry PHI team that was embarrassed at home with only TB on deck. KC will have to gameplan for 4 QB’s as Reid won’t give anything away for this weeks practice & PHI gets back up vs a young & inconsistent KC team. FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 28 Kansas City 13

NFL Totals

3* Giants/Bucs Over 43
3* Dolphins/Chargers Over 46*
3* Titans/Jets Under 38
2* Redskins/Lions Under 38'
2* Steelers/Bengals Under 36

PRO STAT PLAY: BALTIMORE

SYSTEM PLAY: ATLANTA
Play on a non-conf road dog before its bye,
vs a foe off of a road loss.
1996-2008 27-9-1 75%

POWER RATING PLAY OF THE WEEK: NO PLAY

Angle Plays:
(3) GREEN BAY
(3) PITTSBURGH

OTHER SELECTIONS

NY JETS 17 Tennessee 13 - The Titans came in with an NFL best 10-0 record LY but were physically worn out after a MNF game vs IND, an OT game vs GB & back to back road games vs CHI & JAX. The Jets won 34-13 as a 5.5 pt AD with a 409-281 yd edge as they held the Titans to 45 yds rushing (4.1). The Jets overcame a very tough 1H LW to earn their 1st home win over the Patriots since 2000. Sanchez was awful in the 1H (15 yds 60%) but turned it around in the 2H as he passed for 148 yds (65%) with a 2-0 ratio. The Jets outgained NE 197-57 in the 2H & blitzed Brady relentlessly to keep him off balance. They now take on a TEN team that is 0-2 after giving up 321 & 357 yds passing to start the year vs 99 total yds rush. TEN does have a better OL than the Patriots & better run game (240 yds 9.2 LW) but while Sanchez is a rookie the Jets are a very experienced team elsewhere. The Jets will have their hands full here as they will be pumped up by the media after beating NE & will be very confident here after handling the Titans LY. TEN will be very dangerous however (5-1 ATS after SU home loss) as the defending AFC South champ is down 2 games to start the season. The Jets are playing like LY’s Falcons where a rookie QB had a better than expected team to carry him as he developed & we’ll call for the Jets by 4 & watch the line in a lower scoring game.

HOUSTON 30 Jacksonville 20 - HOU is 11-3 ATS vs JAX winning & covering 3 straight at home. After a dismal showing in Wk 1 the Texans offense righted itself & put up 420 yds vs the Titans. Schaub looked smooth as he passed for 357 yds (64%) with a 4-0 ratio to make up for a run game that was held to 63 yds (2.2). HOU’s poor week #1 performance doesn’t look so bad after the NYJ held Brady & Company without a TD LW. JAX meanwhile has had trouble scoring with only 3 TD’s in 22 drives TY & 2 of those came after trailing 24-3 LW. There certainly has to be a sense of desperation & urgency for the Jaguars as this trip is followed by a visit from division favorite TEN. One thing that favors JAX is LY they ran on HOU (5.2 ypc) & the Texan’s D has already allowed 430 yds (6.3) in their 1st 2 games. On the flip side HOU should find open airways versus a JAX D that has allowed an alarming 81% completions TY. Have to side with the home team off a road win against a JAX offense which has scored 12, 7, 10 & 17 pts its L4 road games.

BALTIMORE 20 Cleveland 3 - The dog is 10-4 ATS in the series. The Ravens took both meetings LY SU & ATS with a 351-221 avg yd edge & 33-19 avg score. There is usually a game on the board where no one wants a piece of a team. This is that game & CLE is that team. The Browns offensive woes continue & they’ve now scored 1 offensive TD since Nov 17, 2008. LW behind a rush attack that gained 54 (2.6) QB Quinn was frazzled (sacked 9 times 1st 2 games) & CLE finished with 11 FD’s & 200 yds. The defense is already wearing out as 8 of 12 drives were 5 plays or less & LW against a mediocre offense they allowed 25 FD’s & 449 yds. LW BAL traveled to SD & despite getting outgained 474-311 they led throughout the last 3Q. The Ravens have put a new wrinkle in their offense & expanded their playbook by throwing 70 times the L2W. The defenses however has a reason to be surly after LW’s performance & expect a result closer to Wk #1 when they held KC to 188 total yds at home. Laying points with BAL isn’t a bad thing as they are 6-1 ATS as a HF winning those games with an avg score of 30-11 & CLE is sorely overmatched here.

NY Giants 34 TAMPA BAY 13 - The Bucs have the schedule edge hosting a Giants team that opened the year vs 2 div foes & on the road for the 2nd straight week after LW’s SNF game. The Giants are 5-1 ATS after DAL & while we don’t look at grass angles often the Giants are 9-1 ATS. We’ll also note that NY may be off a SU loss in which they’re 7-1 ATS. TB is now facing 3 straight NFC East teams & while they’re been more productive then expected (402 ypg 20.5 ppg) their 0-2 start can cause dissension & questions early. While new HC Morris had tried to rejuvenate this team they are now on an 0-6-1 ATS run. Pressure on Leftwich has caused him to make mistakes & TO’s & he now faces one of best pass rushing DL’s in the NFL without his starting Ctr Faine. The NYG are the better offensive team, better defensive team, have the better QB leadership, have the better coaching staff & aren’t afraid to beat up teams on the road going 9-0 ATS as an AF on Sunday’s covering by over 11 ppg.

Washington 16 DETROIT 13 - This is the 3rd year in a row the Redskins matchup vs the Lions & they are 2-0 SU & ATS vs them. LY WAS beat DET 25-17 as a 7.5 pt AF. WAS had 22-13 FD & 439-274 yd edges as Campbell had a career high 127.4 QBR. After finishing 24th in redzone offense LY the Redskins issues seem to linger in 2009. WAS had 4 drives of 83, 64, 74 & 76 go inside the STL 10 & they came away with just 3 FG’s. WAS has just 2 TD’s in 17 drives & may have lost RG Thomas (triceps) for the season which is bad news for one of the weaker lines in the NFL. DET put a big scare into MIN in the 1H LW as they had 11-2 FD & 147-37 yd edges before Favre led the Vikings to a TD just before the half to make it 10-7. DET turned the ball over twice in the 2H (3 overall) which MIN converted into 14 pts to put it out of reach as they tied the 2nd longest losing streak in NFL history at 19. DET’s roster overhaul did improve the overall talent on the roster but it left them vulnerable to miscues & penalties. The Redskins simply aren’t clicking under Zorn whose greatest margin of victory has been 8 pts in his tenure & the Lions have just enough talent to keep it close in a lower scoring game.

Green Bay 35 ST LOUIS 14 - The Packers blew out the Rams 33-14 as a 7 pt AF in the previous meeting in 2007. GB is 8-2-1 ATS as an AF & STL is 6-15 ATS at home. GB’s OL struggled to protect Rodgers LW as LT Clifton left the game in the 3Q with an ankle injury & the Bengals got to him 16 times (sacks/QB hits) on 39 pass att’s. GB did rally from 10 down to hit a late FG, recover the onside kick & got to the CIN 10 but were hit with an offside penalty on the final play of the game. GB’s run game was also ineffective as they only had 46 yds rushing (3.3). STL struggled once again LW as they were outgained 362-245 & the fact the game was only 9-7 is more a judgement on how poor the Redskins are in the redzone. The good news for STL is that they did get RB Jackson on track (104 yds 6.1) but Bulger couldn’t find a rhythm & only had 125 yds (54%) with 1 TD. In his defense he doesn’t have a quality group of WR’s to work with but GB has one of the best CB tandems in the NFL. STL isn’t expected to have much of a home crowd here to help out a defense that is struggling to mount an effective pass rush so far (1 sack 67% opp comp) & Rodgers should have an easier time here.

NEW ENGLAND 30 Atlanta 24 - This is a flat spot for NE as they are off a MNF game vs the Bills, a highly publicized matchup vs the Jets & have the Ravens on deck. NE is 3-8 ATS as a HF while ATL is 6-2 ATS as a non-div AD. NE is a fairly vulnerable team right now with a defense in transition with 5 new starters & missing LB Mayo. NE collapsed vs the Jets being outgained 197-102 in the 2H where Brady only had 66 yds passing. While Brady hasn’t been hit much in his 2 games he is reacting to the pass rush & throwing the ball away. With the offensive changes going on we are also perplexed why NE won’t go to RB Maroney or Taylor more as Brady already has 100 pass att’s so far. ATL has a bye on deck & will emphasize their run game (110 ypg 3.4) vs a NE team that has given up 104 ypg (4.1). Ryan has been very efficient to start the year (449 yds 68% 5-1) & has the depth in offensive weapons to create problems here. NE is an excellent 16-3 ATS after a SU loss & there is a LOT of line value here so we’ll call for the home team by 6 & watch the line & WR Welker’s status for now.

SEATTLE 28 Chicago 17 - The Seahawks beat the Bears 30-23 as a 5.5 pt HF in the last meeting in 2007. CHI is 1-5 ATS on the road. SEA is 7-1 ATS as HF. SEA is once again having injury issues as they lost QB Hasselbeck (ribs) LW vs SF & his status is unknown. The Seahawks are likely to turn to Seneca Wallace who went 3-5 SU & 6-2 ATS LY. SEA’s defense was exposed LW as they allowed 256 yds rushing (8.8) to the 49ers which allowed them to wear out one of the smaller stop units with a 9:02 TOP edge. They now face a CHI team that got back on track behind Cutler who was very good vs a tough PIT defense with 236 yds passing (71%) with a 2-0 ratio. RB Forte has been shut down the 1st 2 games of the year (84 total yds 2.2) as Cutler is a dedicated downfield passer who doesn’t like to use his checkdowns. The Seahawks were very close to getting Ctr Spencer & LT Jones back LW & with Hasselbeck’s injury they should find themselves active here. SEA is used to playing with injuries & won’t panic vs a foe off a very physical game vs PIT.

New Orleans 31 BUFFALO 17 - NO finds itself at a slight disadvantage off a road game vs PHI while BUF was at home vs TB LW. This will be the 1st game for NO TY vs an experienced #1 QB. NO’s #29 pass defense isn’t as bad as it looks as DET & PHI have had to pass more to keep up with Brees who remains at LY’s Offensive MVP level. While PHI had the yardage edge in the game (463-421) the Saints scored on 7 of 11 drives & the P had 50.3 net to rub salt in the wound. BUF’s “sugar huddle” offense has been a bit of a surprise so far (357 ypg 29 ppg) but they have faced a NE team with 4 new defensive starters that lost LB Mayo in the 1H & a rebuilding TB team with players that don’t fit the scheme. BUF’s defense is shorthanded without MLB Posluszny (broken arm) while their best CB McGee (out LW back) & pass rusher DE Schobel (back) are expected to miss some practice. NO’s defense is used to practicing vs a high octane offense & unlike LY Brees has a fully healthy receiving unit to work with for the Saints to cruise to the win.

SAN DIEGO 31 Miami 17 - The Chargers are 0-5 SU & ATS vs the Dolphins including a 17-10 loss as a 6.5 pt AF LY. SD was off a road game vs OAK & had a big home game on SNF vs NE on deck. MIA went up 17-3 at the half with 12-4 FD & 220-91 yd edges at the half. Down 7 mid-4Q, SD drove inside the MIA 5 but Tomlinson was stopped on 4th & 1 & didn’t threaten again. SD was very depleted vs BAL LW as they were without 4 starters & the defense sustained a crippling blow as NT Williams (torn triceps) was put on IR before the game. Rivers almost won the game himself as he put up 436 yds passing (56%) with a 2-2 ratio & drove SD to the BAL 15 with :41 left but was SOD. MIA is in a very tough spot as they played IND on MNF & now have to travel out West (4-1 ATS). There was concern prior to the MNF game about Pennington who passed for 214 ypg (69%) with a 2-6 ratio & 7 sacks in the playoff game vs BAL & ATL. MIA’s run game only had 96 yds (4.4) vs ATL & the Wildcat seems to have been neutered in the offseason as defenses are better prepared & not over penetrating to get to the ballcarrier. MIA is taking a very young secondary out here with 2 rookies in the top 3 CB’s. It’ll be tough for them to get the energy up here vs a SD team off a tough loss and oddly enough behind DEN in the standings.

Indianapolis at ARIZONA - This is a tough travel week for IND as they are off LW’s SNF game vs MIA & now have a long flight out west. ARZ finds themselves at 1-1 & need the rest with a bye on deck to get their WR’s healthy. While the Cardinals offense isn’t up to 2008’s standards they do have a fast defense vs an IND team that finds itself basically a day & a half short on practice here. Get this play on the NC Sports Debit Card for only $9 after 11:00 am on Sunday. Marquees currently 11-3!!!

Carolina at DALLAS - The Cowboys are off LW’s huge opening of their new stadium & are on primetime for the 2nd week in a row. They get a CAR team that is 0-2 & knows that this is huge game for keeping the public positive on their season. Desperate teams can surprise you. Don’t miss out on the Monday Night Magic!

Nelly's Greensheet

RATING 5 TEXAS A&M (-15) over Uab
RATING 4 NORTH CAROLINA (+2½) over Georgia Tech
RATING 3 TEXAS TECH (+1) over Houston
RATING 2 AIR FORCE (-16½) over San Diego State
RATING 2 OHIO (+20½) over Tennessee
RATING 1 OREGON (+7) over California
RATING 1 WYOMING (+5½) over Unlv

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2009
Mississippi (-3½) SOUTH CAROLINA 6:45 PM
The road team has won and covered each of the last six meetings between these teams and
last season South Carolina took advantage of catching Ole Miss off an upset win over Florida.
After an ugly win with just seven points in the opening week, the Gamecocks have scored 37
and 38 in the past two weeks. Both of these teams appeared to cruise in mismatches last
week but South Carolina endured a tough battle in the first half before a few big plays in the
second half changed the course of the game. The Rebels were also a little flat at the outset as
28 second half points padded the final margin. Both teams were less than sharp defensively
but the intensity should be increased this week. Mississippi is in uncharted territory with a high
national ranking and now playing as a road favorite in a tough SEC venue in a national TV
game. Ole Miss is 2-8 the last ten games as road favorites while South Carolina has not been
a formidable performer as a home dog. Mississippi features the more experienced offense
and should have the superior rushing attack and could keep up the road success trends in this
series with a key win in a tough stretch of road games early in the year. OLE MISS BY 10

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2009

Missouri (-7½) NEVADA 8:00 PM
Nevada opened the year with two big road games and the Wolf Pack did not come close in
either game. Nevada features veteran QB Colin Kaepernick who has posted huge numbers
but so far he and his teammates have had an 8-0 turnover deficit in two games. This will be
the first home game of the season for Nevada where they are 22-8 S/U the last five years.
Last season Missouri crushed Nevada 69-17 in a game where the Tigers posted huge passing
numbers. Notre Dame showed in the opener that the Nevada defense still has extensive
deficiencies against the pass so this could still be a problematic match-up. Last week Missouri
cruised against Furman but the defense allowed 22 first downs and serious yardage. This will
also be the first true road game for the Tigers on the season. Given last year’s result and the
ugly 0-2 result for Nevada so far this season, this should be an inflated line and the Wolf Pack
should have a much better performance finally playing at home. Missouri has covered in five
of the last six as road favorites but Nevada is 19-7-1 ATS at home since 2004 and this is a
must-win situation after two bad losses. MISSOURI BY 4

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2009

Wake Forest (-2½) BOSTON COLLEGE 1:00 PM
The Eagles faced tough conditions last week with rain delays but Boston College produced
just four first downs and netted 54 total yards. The BC defense did a nice job but there remain
major questions on offense as QB Justin Tuggle has completed just 35 percent of his passes
this season. After a frantic win over Stanford two weeks ago, Wake Forest picked up another
win with far less drama last week against Elon. Senior QB Riley Skinner had a career day last
week after a rocky start to the season he has compiled very efficient numbers. Last season
these teams endured a defensive battle with both teams being held to low yardage totals in a
late BC victory. There were 17 punts and eight sacks in last year’s game but the QB
advantage should prove significant in this year’s game. Boston College is yet to play a close
game this season so Wake Forest should be in an advantageous position late in the game
having battled through two tough four quarter games already this season and featuring
veterans in key spots while Boston College got both wins against weak competition. BC has
been penalized for last week with this line but the Deacons are the play. WAKE BY 6

OHIO STATE (-14) Illinois 2:30 PM
The Buckeyes bounced back last week with an impressive shutout win. The offensive
production was needed but shutting down the Toledo offense was more impressive as the
Rockets posted huge numbers in the first two weeks against BCS conference competition.
The last meeting with Illinois in Columbus resulted in a crushing 21-28 loss as the #1 team in
the nation, though the Buckeyes still found their way to the national title game that season.
Last year Illinois posted over 450 yards against Ohio State but still lost by ten at home despite
the yardage edge. Illinois has impressive success in this series, actually going 19-8 ATS since
1980 and this is a critical game for both teams that already own non-conference losses. Illinois
has allowed over 300 passing yards in both games this season, including against Illinois State
so there should be concerns for the Illini against an opened up passing game for Ohio State
that produced some big plays last week. Illinois lost its starting middle linebacker for the
season after the opening game so there are some concerns for the Illini but Ohio State’s
defense has not been air tight either this season. Given the history of success for Illinois in
this series and the season-making potential of this game, the Illini and an explosive offense
should have some success. Ohio State played flawlessly last week but this will be a much
tougher challenge for a team that has failed in many big games . OHIO STATE BY 10

NORTHWESTERN (-1½) Minnesota 11:00 AM
The Gophers earned some respect last week by hanging close with Cal on the scoreboard but
Minnesota gave up a lot of yards and star WR Eric Decker had to leave the game. Minnesota
has played a quality early season schedule which has hampered their offensive numbers
while Northwestern failed in a golden opportunity to start 3-0 with a narrow loss last week.
Minnesota’s defense gave up a lot of big plays early last week but held firm most of the
second half. Northwestern ignited the Syracuse offense last week as the Orange had 471
yards. In the opener Syracuse had just 257 yards against Minnesota. Both teams played at
the Carrier Dome and though Minnesota won and Northwestern loss, both games could have
gone either way. Last season Minnesota was 7-1 and leading Northwestern before things fell
apart. Current Northwestern QB Mike Kafka started that game and had a huge day on the
ground. Minnesota lost that game and did not win another game the rest of the season.
Minnesota has lost seven of the last eleven against Northwestern but has strong ATS
numbers in the series. Minnesota played commendably in each of the Big Ten road games
last season and the Gophers have played a far tougher schedule. MINNESOTA BY 7

MICHIGAN (-20) Indiana 11:00 AM
Michigan has one of the top rushing offenses in the nation as the spread offense is proving to
be highly effective in year two. Michigan’s defense has allowed nearly 360 yards per game
however with a schedule that has included two MAC teams and three home games. This will
be the homecoming game for Michigan and the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate cover in
a game that was much closer than the final margin represents. Indiana was dogged last week
on the road but the Hoosiers delivered by far their best offensive performance of the season.
These teams have not played the past two seasons and Indiana has had minimal success in
this series, going 8-15 ATS with just one S/U win since ’80. Michigan has covered in all three
games this season, all at home and the Wolverines should not be doubted this week. Indiana
is an unimpressive 2-1 after having opened with arguably the easiest schedule of any BCS
conference team and the Hoosiers will have big problems containing the superior athletes on
the Michigan offense. Although Michigan appears to have some vulnerability on defense this
is not a match-up that will expose those potential problems. MICHIGAN BY 28

TEMPLE (-2½) Buffalo 11:00 AM
The Bulls squeaked out a win last season at home against Temple on the way to an
unforgettable season. Buffalo converted 35-yard Hail Mary pass to win in the final seconds to
secure a two-point win. Buffalo was led by a solid rushing attack last year but that has not
been the case this season. Buffalo has played a very tough early season schedule and this
will be the third road game in four weeks. Temple suffered an embarrassing loss in week one,
although Villanova is likely destined to be one of the top FCS teams this season. Last week
against Penn State Temple held its own, although they put together few serious scoring
threats. Temple features a veteran defense that could have a few advantages in this matchup.
Buffalo has covered in nine of the last ten road games but Temple has been a very good
team at home and the Owls may be in a better situation for this game. TEMPLE BY 4

WISCONSIN (-2½) Michigan State 11:00 AM
While Michigan State is 1-2 Wisconsin is 3-0, but this figures to be a fairly even match-up.
Last season Michigan State was scrambling to kick a game-winning field goal attempt when
Wisconsin inexplicably called timeout and the Spartans set up the game winner, 25-24. Two
years ago at Camp Randall Wisconsin won 37-34 in a wild game. Wisconsin rushed for 281
yards against the Spartans last season but the Badgers have been a bit shaky on offense so
far this season while showing great vulnerability on defense in their toughest game. Michigan
State appeared poised for an upset win last week on the heels of their own upset loss the
previous week. It didn’t work out for the Spartans and the schedule ahead is daunting for a
team that won nine games last seas on. The Spartans host Michigan next week and then head
to Illinois so a rough start to the season could continue. Michigan State has been very
successful through the air so far this season and Wisconsin will aim to establish the running
game in a classic pass versus run match-up. Though there are some grave concerns with this
Badger team the preference is to back the running team. WISCONSIN BY 6

CLEMSON (-3) Tcu 2:30 PM
This match-up features what could be two of the top defenses in the nation. TCU already won
at Virginia this season and this will be another opportunity for a big non-conference win. With
BYU and Utah falling last week TCU now is holding the flame for the Mountain West as
expectations for this conference to produce BCS bowl teams has become common. Clemson
lost two weeks ago against Georgia Tech but much of the early scoring against Clemson
came on fluky plays. The Tigers dominated last week although the conditions aided the stingy
numbers. The Tigers have only lost once in the last 16 hom e games against non-conference
opponents but that number is inflated with far lesser caliber teams. TCU has allowed 35 points
in two games this season but the Frogs have been dominant and much of that scoring has
come after a lead has been developed. This is the big game on TCU’s schedule in nonconference
play as a win here would legitimize a potential run towards a major bowl bid
should the Frogs win the Mountain West. Clemson was a popular play -on team last week and
the Tigers delivered, which may leave them a bit overvalued this week . TCU BY 4

Rutgers (-3) MARYLAND 2:30 PM
Maryland could easily be 0-3 and last week’s loss show s how far behind this team is as it
came in a favorable situation. Maryland has allowed over 200 yards per game rushing through
three games while featuring some of the worst defensive rankings in the nation. In 2007
Maryland beat a then ranked #10 Rutgers team 34-24 and the Terrapins have a great history
of success at home in non-conference games though last week’s loss hurts that record.
Rutgers won by just eight last week but the Knights were in complete control. Rutgers
struggled on offense however and freshmen QB Tom Savage hit just eleven of his 28 passes
and the QB position remains a major concern after opening week starter Domenic Natale
struggled with interceptions. Maryland has been a dangerous home underdog and though the
results have been ugly for the Terps, they have potential in this match-up. Rutgers has
allowed 367 yards per game despite two cupcakes on the schedule. MARYLAND BY 3

Boise State (-16) BOWLING GREEN 6:00 PM
With BYU and Utah knocked out of the running, Boise State may be in the best position to
make an undefeated run to BCS bowl territory. The Broncos look like far and away the class
of the WAC but this will be a challenging non-conference road game, the second straight
week away from home. Last season Boise State scored just 20 points against the Falcons in a
home win but failed cover as neither offense had consistent production. Bowling Green
impressed in the first two weeks with an upset over Troy and a very tight loss against Missouri
but last week the Falcons were thoroughly out-gained on the ground in a loss at Marshall.
Bowling Green is a pass-first team but Boise State did a nice job against Fresno State’s
passing game last week. Against Miami of the MAC Boise completely dominated but the
Redhawks appear to be the worst team in the conference this season. Bowling Green has
been an impressive home underdog, covering in eleven of the last 14 and if there is a letdown
spot on the Boise schedule this might be it. Boise is 3-0 ATS this season however and fading
the Broncos in almost any situation has usually been a losing proposition. BOISE BY 19

TENNESSEE (-20½) Ohio 6:00 PM
Though Tennessee had just 213 yards last week many are praising the effort against the
Gators almost as if the Volunteers had won. Tennessee easily covered an inflated spread but
the Volunteers still displayed some of the same problems that haunted the team in the home
loss against UCLA and QB Jonathan Crompton appears to be severely limiting this squad.
Tennessee barely beat a MAC team last season winning 13-9 against Northern Illinois and
although the Volunteers have impressed defensively they have had problems on offense. In
fairness UCLA and Florida have outstanding defensive teams so there should be more
opportunities for the offense this week. Ohio had a big game last week to beat Cal-Poly and
the Bobcats are now winners of two straight. This is expected to be one of the better teams in
the MAC and a greatly improved squad and overlooking the Bobcats would be a big mistake
in a tricky non-conference game scheduled between two huge SEC contests. Tennessee has
not been a strong ATS performer and value may be back going against Tennes see this week
in a letdown spot following a huge game. TENNESSEE BY 10

EAST CAROLINA (-10) Central Florida 2:30 PM
The early season darling of 2008 has struggled in 2009 as East Carolina has dropped backto-
back games. The Pirates have faced three tough games in a brutal early season schedule
but the offense has really been out of sync, averaging just 268 yards per game with plenty of
key mistakes. Central Florida is not known for offense but the Knights did enough to win last
week and defense and strong special team play are trademarks of this team. Last season
these teams needed overtime to settle up as East Carolina won in Orlando, 13-10, and the
Pirates have had the advantage in this series. Central Florida has been a gritty underdog
however, including covers in 13 of the last 18 as road dogs. After three pretty big games to
open the year, East Carolina could letdown a bit even though this is the C-USA opener. The
Knights are very good against the run and ECU has not proven they can provide a consistent
passing attack that can pull away in this match-up. EAST CAROLINA BY 6

CINCINNATI (-14½) Fresno State 11:00 AM
Fresno State will take on anyone anywhere and they will face a tough early start game back
towards the eastern part of the country. The Bulldogs have now lost back-to-back games
despite playing very competitively against quality competition. Expected to take a dive this
season, Cincinnati has been one of the most impressive teams in the nation and two big road
wins are already on the resume this season. Brian Kelly is 24-6 S/U since taking over the
Bearcats and he should start to be mentioned among the coaching elite if he keeps up this run
for the program . Cincinnati is facing travel back from the west coast after a win at Oregon
State last week but Fresno State is in the same situation. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15
home games while Fresno State has not fared as well in these situations as its reputation
suggests. Although Fresno had an extra day playing last Friday, it will be tough to follow -up a
difficult loss in a competitive game against Boise State, the perennial WAC champion. Going
against Cincinnati, even in situations that look problematic has been highly unprofitable and
the Bearcats have shown a lot of promise on offense with som e of the best numbers in the
nation so far, with surprisingly solid numbers on defense as well. CINCINNATI BY 17

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-17) Akron 2:30 PM
There was no letdown for Central Michigan last week, cruising to a comfortable win against
Alcorn State. Akron missed in two opportunities against the Big Ten but the Zips still appear to
be one of the of the better teams in the MAC and this will be a key interdivision game in the
standings. Akron had turnover problems last week, with three giveaways leading to 21 points.
The last two meetings between these teams have been very close but these teams did not
meet last season. Central Michigan has been a successful home favorite and the Chippewas
have been the most consistently successful team in the MAC over the past few seasons.
Akron had to play last week without senior QB Chris Jacquemain who was suspended and
that the Zips stayed as close as they did speaks to the depth of this team though this will be a
tough match-up if the QB is still suspended. Akron is just 7-13 in the last 20 games on the
road and CMU is 8-2 the last ten as home favorites. CENTRAL BY 21

Lsu (-14) MISSISSIPPI STATE 11:20 AM
The Bulldogs won with relative ease last week against Vanderbilt, winning the yardage 341-
157 despite a narrow margin on the scoreboard. This week’s game provides a tougher
challenge but the Bulldogs will be at home. LSU has covered in 14 of the last 17 meetings
between these teams despite often being a large favorite in recent years. Last year was a
different story as MSU lost by just ten in Baton Rouge, capitalizing on turnovers to keep the
game close. LSU is 3-0 but the Tigers own the 90th ranked offense in the nation and the
defense has been far from dominant. The schedule was expected to limit LSU this season but
so far the team has not appeared to have elite personnel in place. Mississippi State has not
performed well as home underdogs and the offense will likely have trouble keeping up coming
off a big win. A much bigger game against Georgia is waiting next week for the Tigers but
even an incomplete performance will probably be good enough. LSU BY 24

IOWA STATE (-10½) Army 6:00 PM
It is a bit rare to see Army with a winning record at least in recent years and this will be
another game where the Knights have a legitimate chance. Army has one of the top rushing
teams in the nation and this has been a sound defensive team, albeit through a light schedule.
Iowa State picked up a convincing win last week but the Cyclones caught Kent in their first
game without star RB Jarvis. In three games Iowa State has turned the ball over 12 times and
it somewhat remarkable that this team has two wins given that number. Army covered against
Iowa State in 2005 and also played tight with Texas A&M in two of the last three years so this
can be a tricky match-up for a major conference school. Both teams are 2-1 with new coaches
in the early going but there will be underdog value on Army as this is a tough team to blowout
and a team that is much better than most likely realize. IOWA STATE BY 7

MEMPHIS (-3½) Marshall 12:00 PM
Both of these teams avoided starting 0-3 with wins last week and these are two squads that
have a chance in a fairly wide open C-USA East. Last season Marshall beat Memphis 17-16
in a game where the Marshall defense did a great job and last week’s impressive shutdown of
Bowling Green was a big boost for the Herd. Both of those games came at home however and
Marshall is 6-21-2 in the last 29 road games. Memphis mainly got it done through the air last
week and Tigers actually played much closer than the score suggested against a highly
ranked Mississippi team to open the season. Memphis did allow over 400 yards last week
against Tennessee-Martin however and this is a team that has allowed around 30 points per
game each of the last three years. The overall statistics are ugly for both of these squads but
Marshall could be an underdog with a rushing edge and the Herd has presented a decent
pass rush this season with eleven sacks in three games. MEMPHIS BY 2

TEXAS A&M (-15) Uab 6:00 PM
UAB is a threat as they are rushing for 230 yards per game. The Blazers have lost the last two
games but this is an improved team that could be competitive in most games despite just four
wins last season. There are still some concerns on defense and Texas A&M has been fairly
impressive with two convincing wins, though the competition has not been a challenge. Given
the tough division play that the Aggies will face, A&M needs every win they can get so there
will be no looking past UAB. A&M actually owns the #1 offense in the nation averaging 589
yards per game though the numbers are a bit skewed having played only two games. This
may be a slightly increased challenge but sill not a clear indication of where the Aggies may
be in a bigger national picture. Still for a team that struggled mightily against the weakest
teams on the schedule last year the start has been encouraging. Last week’s win over Utah
State was not as close as the final score indicated and the Aggies have shown the potential
for blowouts this season. TEXAS A&M BY 27

KANSAS (-13½) Southern Mississippi 11:00 AM
The Jayhawks struggled early but eventually pulled away to quietly move to 3-0. The schedule
has not justified more mention for the Jayhawks but they have taken care of business in a
schedule that will get significantly tougher in the second half of the season. Southern Miss is
also 3-0 although the Golden Eagles have had to survive close calls each of the past two
weeks. No one talks about Conference USA in the discussion of BCS busters but Southern
Miss is a veteran team that could have a great season and a win here might elevate them to
consideration. The Golden Eagles have out-gained foes by over 200 yards per game on
average this season and this has been a very tough team to run against. Southern Miss has
not yet played a road game however so this will be a stiff test and last week’s win over an
ACC team will make this a tough follow -up game. Kansas has been an impressive home
favorite, now having covered in 12 of the last 13 attempts but the Jayhawks are going to be an
inflated favorite last week as they delivered as a heavily bet favorite last week. The Golden
Eagles may have what it takes to provide a scare here. KANSAS BY 10

AIR FORCE (-16½) San Diego State 1:00 PM
Last season Air Force won 35-10 in San Diego with a dominant defensive effort. The Falcons
lead the nation in rushing through three games and the defensive numbers have also been
excellent though the schedule has not been overly impressive. San Diego State lost at Idaho
last week and this is a program that has fallen to historic lows. This will also be the third week
on the road through the first four weeks of the season and it is unlikely that the Aztecs can
contain the rushing attack of Air Force. Air Force has covered in six of the last seven games
as home favorites and though the Falcons have not often been favored this steeply it would be
difficult to back SDSU in this situation. Idaho converted nine third down plays last week and
the Aztecs will have a hard time getting stops. AIR FORCE BY 28

Vanderbilt (-7½) RICE 7:00 PM
Rice has allowed at least 41 points in each game this season so a Vanderbilt team that posted
just a lone field goal last week should be provided better opportunities. The Owls featured a
very productive offense last season but it is clear this year’s team is not on the same level.
Vandy was an impressive bowl team a year ago but it will be a difficult climb to get to the
postseason this year especially after losing a winnable home game last week. The
Commodores are a strong rushing team but QB Larry Smith completed just 12 of 32 passes
last week as the offense continually stalled. Rice has struggled this season but this is a
program that has delivered ATS success in the home underdog role and the Owls are likely to
score some points. It will be tough lay points with this Vandy offense. VANDY BY 6

AUBURN (-30½) Ball State 1:00 PM
After losing twice all season last year Ball State already has three losses this year and it will
continue to be a tough transition. The Cardinals severely out-gained Army last week for a step
in the right direction but turnovers were devastating. It will be tough for Auburn to not overlook
this game coming off a big revenge win over West Virginia last w eek and facing Tennessee
next on the schedule. Auburn had previously struggled as a home favorite but the Tigers are
3-0 S/U and ATS this year and this will be another home game. Auburn gave up a lot of
yardage last week but forced turnovers to take the win and Auburn has been an impressive
offensive team so far this season though they were lucky last week. AUBURN BY 28

Unlv (-5½) WYOMING 2:00 PM
Wyoming is a much different team at home and the Cowboys had won four in a row in this
series before a narrow loss last season in Las Vegas. Against Big XII competition the last two
games Wyoming has scored just ten points but the defense has kept the respectably close.
The Cowboys are 12-5 the last 17 games as home underdogs but the QB situation is a bit
unsettled with three different players seeing time under center last week. UNLV has had nailbitters
the last two weeks, falling short against Oregon State but hanging on against Hawaii.
UNLV QB Omar Clayton was healthy enough to play last week and though he posted strong
numbers he also made a few costly mistakes. The Runnin’ Rebels gave up over 500 yards
last week and UNLV was thoroughly out-gained against Oregon State despite the close final.
This was a very even match-up statistically last season. WYOMING BY 3

ALABAMA (-15½) Arkansas 2:30 PM
The Crimson Tide defense has allowed just 185 yards per game and the offensive numbers
have so far been impressive in a year where there were some question marks on that side of
the ball. Alabama has won 17 consecutive SEC openers and last season the Crimson Tide
won 49-14 on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks showed some promise last week
with big production on offense but it was not enough as Georgia prevailed. Alabama rushed
for 328 yards last year in this match-up and that advantage should be available this season as
well. The Tide dominated the yardage but battled in a close game in the one true test they
have faced against Virginia Tech and even in a loss, last week’s game should have built some
confidence for a Razorbacks team that failed to compete against several of the top teams last
season. Alabama is 6-18 in the last 24 games as home favorites. ALABAMA BY 10

Florida (-22½) KENTUCKY 5:00 PM
The Gators were not overly impressive last week when many expected a huge blowout but
beating Tennessee is still a quality SEC victory. Kentucky has had some success in this series
and the Wildcats are off to a great start to the season, still undefeated and coming off a big
rivalry game win. Kentucky lost by just eight the last time they hosted Florida but in Gainesville
lost 63-5 last season. Defending the run was a problem last week for Kentucky which could be
problematic against the Gators. Florida has reached a point where they will be inflated
favorites in every game but this is not a team that is worth trying to beat either. The Gators
have allowed just 19 points in three games and defense will continue to be the key to success.
There could be a bit of a letdown this week for Florida but Kentucky should be overmatched.
Kentucky has been a decent home underdog and could hang around. FLORIDA BY 21

GEORGIA (-12) Arizona State 6:00 PM
This was a hyped early season game last year that quickly turned into a laugher as Georgia
dominated and the Sun Devils removed much of the cachet for the match-up by being upset
the previous week. Georgia has allowed 78 points the last two weeks but the Bulldogs have
won both games. Turnovers have been a serious problem but this is a team that has learned
how to win and has been tested like few other teams through an insanely difficult early season
schedule. Arizona State has projected much worse than last year’s team but the Sun Devils
were huge disappointments a year ago, winning just five games. ASU has looked good so far
in 2009 but the schedule has been very light and not much should be read into the top ranking
statistically on defense. Georgia has played a ton of big games while this could be an
overlooked match-up after the easy win a year ago. GEORGIA BY 7

California (-7) OREGON 2:30 PM
Both Pac-10 contenders faced difficult games last week but both teams prevailed and with
USC already suffering a conference loss there is renewed hope for all the other teams
involved. Last season Cal won 26-16 at home in a fairly even statistical game that featured
sloppy weather. The Bears have beaten Oregon each of the past three years and led by RB
Jahvid Best this is a team that should be considered not just a Pac-10 contender but a
national threat. A huge game with USC is waiting next week for the Bears but there will be no
overlooking Oregon, where Coach Tedford was previously an assistant. It has been a shaky
season for the Ducks offensively, averaging just 25 points and 273 yards per game so far
under new coach Chip Kelly. Last season Oregon posted over 41 points per game but in
fairness the early season schedule has been extremely tough. Though Cal has been
impressive, this is not a team that has delivered considerable road success and this could be
a tough spot coming off a big road win in a game that was much tougher than anticipated last
week in Minnesota. Oregon could have its best output this week. OREGON BY 3

FLORIDA STATE (-14) South Florida 11:00 AM
This game sets up as a potential upset spot as Florida State is coming off a surprise thrashing
of highly ranked BYU on the road last week. The Seminoles showed off great speed in a
blowout win and now must face a Bulls team that has grown in stature on the Florida scene. A
big problem for South Florida exists however as long-time starting QB Matt Grothe ended his
season with injury last week in a blowout win over Charleston Southern. USF is 3-0 this
season with dominant numbers but the schedule has been a joke. This has been the key
game that the program has been waiting a long time for so an inspired effort should still be in
order. Freshmen B.J. Daniels played well in relief last week and USF has at times featured a
very impressive defense in recent years. The Bulls are 6-1 in the last seven games as
underdogs while Florida State has been a horrible home favorite. FLORIDA STATE BY 3

GEORGIA TECH (-2½) North Carolina 11:00 AM
The prolific rushing attack for the Yellow Jackets is proving much less effective against quality
competition in year two for Coach Johnson and North Carolina will be up for this game. The
Tar Heels won 28-7 at home in this match-up last season despite a Georgia Tech yardage
edge and UNC is now 3-0 after back-to-back non-conference wins over quality competition.
Right now the Tar Heels feature the 7th best rush defense in the nation and though that is sure
to elevate after this game Georgia Tech could face an uphill battle. The win over Clemson was
fortunate for the Jackets and UNC has been a dynamite underdog in recent years. North
Carolina has covered each of the last five meetings between these teams and the Tar Heels
look like a complete team that will continue to rise in the rankings. UNC BY 6

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-16) Idaho 2:30 PM
The Huskies made a comeback rally against Wisconsin in the opener but fell just short and
put together a great start last week against a flat Purdue squad and hung on for the upset.
Two years ago the Huskies won just two games and one of those wins was at Idaho, but the
Vandals are off to a 2-1 start this year with two S/U wins as dogs. Idaho has not been an easy
team to run against and the offense has shown improvement after averaging just 19 points per
game last year. This looks like a tricky spot for NIU coming off one of the bigger wins in recent
memory and now laying points at home. The Huskies have failed to cover in eight straight
games as double-digit favorites and Idaho is an improved squad. NIU BY 10

BYU (-14½) Colorado State 5:00 PM
Recovering from last week’s loss will not be easy for BYU as national aims were dashed in a
blow out home loss. The Cougars still feature a favorable MWC schedule ahead and a BCS
bowl is not completely out of the question though the once growing national title game talk can
be dismissed. This was a heck of match-up last season as BYU won 45-42 in Fort Collins as
turnovers helped the Rams stay close before BYU took the lead in the final seconds. Colorado
State is quietly 3-0 and although the narrow escape against Weber State two weeks ago left
much to be desired the other two wins have been impressive. Colorado State has benefited
from one of the top turnover margins in the nation so far this season and the Rams could be
vulnerable against the pass though they have been strong against the run. Given the
implications of last week’s loss this could be a tough follow-up game for BYU and Colorado
State appears to be a returning to power in this conference after a few down years. BYU BY 7

Pittsburgh (PK) NC STATE 2:30 PM
The Panthers have been an excellent statistical team this season and wins in tricky spots the
last two weeks have been impressive for a squad that has been upset prone in recent years.
NC State has had back-to-back blowout wins against FCS competition following the awful
opening effort which the Wolfpack scored just three points and had no rhythm on offense. The
defensive numbers have been very impressive for NC State but the schedule has been far
from it. NC State has been a dangerous home underdog and Pittsburgh does not feature a
strong past track record in non-conference road games, although the Panthers have been a
strong recent performer away from home. NC State can not be trusted based on success the
past two weeks and this will be a big game for the Big East and a Panthers team that is not
getting much publicity despite being in position for a very strong year. PITTSBURGH BY 7

STANFORD (-7) Washington 8:00 PM
Washington gave up 250 yards on the ground last week but greatly benefited from spotty QB
play from USC in a historic upset. The letdown factor will be huge and Stanford is a team on
the rise. Stanford won at Washington last season and the Cardinal have performed well
through a challenging opening schedule. This will be a key game for a veteran Cardinal team
looking to make a bowl run and though Washington may have the edge at QB, Stanford
freshmen Andrew Luck has exceeded expectations so far. Stanford has covered in seven
consecutive home games and is sure to have value on its side after Washington’s big win.
Washington has opened with each of the first three games at home this season so this will be
a whole new challenge for a team that has had a lot happen quickly. Stanford has covered in
five of the last seven in this series. STANFORD BY 13

KENT STATE (-9) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
Kent has scored just 13 points per game this season with just 83 rushing yards per game as
the running game is now shorthanded. The Flashes have been solid defensively this year but
this is not a team that has been trustworthy laying points, including going 2-12 ATS the past
14 games as favorites. Miami scored 26 points after being held scoreless in the first two
weeks but none of the scoring occurred until the second half with the Redhawks already down
35-0. Miami has one of the worst turnover margins in the nation and very poor numbers on
both sides of the ball. Miami is also now playing a third consecutive road game. Kent won 54-
21 in Oxford last season but the Redhawks have had overwhelming success in this series.
Miami will be getting a lot of points and the team could have some confidence after finally
getting some scoring late last week. Kent is a team that is tough to lay points with. KENT BY 4

UTAH (-11½) Louisville 6:30 PM
The warming seat of Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe nearly got some relief last week but
the Cardinals fell just short against Kentucky in back-and-forth rivalry game. This will be a
tough match-up as Louisville faces Utah off its first loss. Teams have been able to run
successfully against the Utes this season and after falling behind early at Oregon, a late rally
was not enough to keep the nation’s longest winning streak going. Louisville actually outgained
Kentucky last week and settling for field goals after solid 3rd quarter drives proved to be
the difference in a narrow loss. Utah has won all three meetings between these teams and
Louisville has been an underachieving underdog but it will be a tough rebound situation for
Utah following the first loss and the Utes have been suspect defensively. Catching decent
underdog value Louisville may be better than anticipated. UTAH BY 7

Miami, FL (-1½)VIRGINIA TECH 2:30 PM
The Virginia Tech did little all day against Nebraska in a big national game last week but the
Hokies put together a few quick big plays when it counted for a miraculous win in the closing
seconds. Nebraska kicked fiv e field goals in the game and one conversion to the end zone
would have been the difference but the Hokies held firm defensively when it mattered.
Nebraska won the yardage battle but the offense struggled as the Hokies still possess a
dominant defense even if the overall numbers do not look that impressive at this point through
a very challenging early season schedule. Miami is two-for-two in big primetime games and
the Hurricanes completely dominated last week against a Georgia Tech squad that had
handled them the previous year. Last season Miami pulled out a win at home in this match-up
16-14 in a defensive battle. Opponents have been able to run on the Hokies but the pass
defense has been excellent which could cause problems for the U, which has been reliant on
the air attack this season. Miami may be back on the national radar but Va Tech never left and
remains an elite program that is 33-5 S/U at home the last six+ years. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10

Notre Dame (-7½) PURDUE 7:00 PM
Following a hard fought loss at Oregon, the Boilers letdown with an upset loss at home last
week. Purdue has been productive on offense but the defense is giving up 32 points and 434
yards per game. Notre Dame has not been great defensively but through a tougher schedule
the Irish have been far stingier and the Notre Dame passing attack has been among the best
in the nation. That receiving corps takes a big hit with the loss of Floyd however. While Notre
Dame always seems to struggle with Michigan State as they did last week, Purdue has been a
more manageable opponent in recent years with ATS wins in six of the last nine. Purdue was
more vulnerable on the ground last week and overall the Boilers defense does not appear
ready to make stops in this match-up. Notre Dame walked a thin line last week but got the win
they needed and everything is still in place for the Irish. Purdue has not fared well as a home
underdog. Many want to still doubt the Irish and the last two week’s offered valid reasons, but
Purdue appears to be a big drop in the level of competition this week. NOTRE DAME BY 13

TEXAS (-34) Utep 2:30 PM
Last season in a highly anticipated home game for the Miners, UTEP did not come close
against the Longhorns. So far 2009 has been a tough go for the Miners but last week a much
needed win may have the team on track. Texas faced a hyped revenge game that was closer
than many expected last week. Texas has been a dominant offensive team on the season but
the defense has given some reason to believe this may not be the national contender that
many are anticipating. Texas has mainly performed well as a large favorite but last year’s
game was actually very even statistically despite a 29-point deficit. This will be a huge game
on the schedule for a veteran Miners squad and with the pressure off and a steep line UTEP
might be playable here. UTEP is 12-5 in the las t 17 games as double-digit dogs and despite
the slow start this team should be one of the top C-USA representatives. Texas has bigger
games ahead and this has not been a dominant defensive team. TEXAS BY 27

PENN STATE (-10) Iowa 7:00 PM
With others around them losing, Penn State has climbed to a strong position in the national
rankings although the Lions have faced a very weak schedule. Penn State has failed to cover
in all three games though they have never been seriously threatened and the offense has
been productive enough and the defense has allowed no more than seven points in any
game. Iowa has had some ups and downs already this year but last week was a big nonconference
win against an Arizona team that should be highly competitive in the Pac-10. Iowa
didn’t do anything remarkable on offense but the defense held firm. Iowa is also 3-0 despite
taking some heat for the narrow opening win. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State to end an
undefeated run for the Lions last year so this will be a key game and the first true test of the
season. Iowa has enjoyed great success in this series but it is very tough to go against Penn
State at home, even though that has been a profitable proposition so far this year. This is a
different scenario and Penn State is ready to prove it warrants a lofty ranking even though the
schedule raises a lot of questions. PENN STATE BY 10

HOUSTON (-1) Texas Tech 8:15 PM
The Cougars have had two weeks to unravel after the huge upset of Oklahoma State and
another opportunity is waiting for Houston. A win here could put Houston in a BCS bowl
driver’s seat should they manage an undefeated run in Conference USA. Texas Tech played
with Texas last week despite the loss and the Red Raiders still possess a great passing
offense. This game should feature a lot of throws and potentially big numbers on both sides as
these are two of the top offensive teams in the nation. The Red Raiders have been a capable
road favorite in past years and Houston may be getting a bit too much respect as their upset
win came in a very favorable situation. Houston allowed over 30 points per game last season
and they will have the full attention of the Red Raiders knowing the upset risk. This will be a
great chance for the Cougars to make a national dent while hosting a marquee opponent but
Texas Tech is capable of posting huge numbers and the Red Raiders do not appear to have
dropped off that far from a year ago. TEXAS TECH BY 13

NEW MEXICO (-9½) New Mexico State 9:00 PM
This should be New Mexico’s best opportunity for a win but the Lobos have posted
horrendous numbers through three games in a dramatic transition year. New Mexico has won
six straight in this series and the Lobos have faced quality competition each of the first three
weeks of the season making for the tough start. The schedule has been unimpressive but
New Mexico State has run the ball effectively this year and a greater defensive focus has led
to a few more stops. New Mexico State is 11-46 S/U on the road the last eight years and this
battle of first year coaches that could sorely use wins could be closely contested. Neither team
has taken care of the ball well this season so there are likely to be some more mistakes in this
match-up but the experience edge should side with New Mexico even though the system has
changed significantly. New Mexico ran the ball well last week against Air Force and if
mistakes at the QB position can be avoided the Lobos should win. NEW MEXICO BY 10

USC (-43) Washington State 9:15 PM
After the upset loss last week most will expect a resounding rebound win from the Trojans.
While Washington State is the perfect opponent for such a performance the ineffectiveness at
the QB position last week poses a serious concern. Against a defense that is allowing 537
yards per game however the Trojans should have no trouble moving the ball. Last season
USC won 69-0 in Pullman and the Trojans were dominant defensively in that game as WSU
never had a legitimate scoring chance. USC has performed well in the huge favorite role and
coming off a Pac-10 loss last year the Trojans crushed Oregon 44-10. USC has covered in
five of the last six in this series despite laying a ton of points and USC has been an
outstanding statistical team this year despite playing a very tough schedule with two hard road
games. Looking ahead to a showdown with California next week is a possibility but going
against USC at home is typically a problematic situation. Washington State was extremely
fortunate to get a comeback win last week, aided by a big turnover. In a season where a
winless year was a possibility getting a W early in the year is a huge relief and this will also be
the first road game of the season for a turnover prone squad that has struggled through a very
weak schedule so far this year. USC BY 48

Arizona (-2½) OREGON STATE 6:35 PM
Both of these Pac-10 squads suffered tough losses last week and last year these teams
battled to a 19-17 Oregon State win in Tucson. Oregon State still pulled out the win last year
without their starting QB and star RB and the Beavers have been an unsung performer with
an impressive Pac -10 mark the last three years. This is the second straight week on the road
for Arizona with long travel involved in both games and the Wildcats have covered just once in
the last ten meetings of this series. The Beavers still maintain a great home field edge despite
a loss last week to a Cincinnati team that may be better than expected. Arizona has been a
strong rushing team so far this season but those statistics have been inflated in weaker nonconference
games. Stopping the run is the strength of the Beavers and Arizona may not have
the weapons to win a road game through the air. OREGON STATE BY 4

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-5) UL-Monroe 3:00 PM
This will be the third road game in four weeks for the Warhawks and long travel has been
involved in the last two weeks. Last season Monroe rushed for 153 yards per game which
makes them a threat as an underdog and this year the team is averaging 193 yards per game.
Florida Atlantic won by one at Monroe last season in an even statistical game. The Owls
connected in the final seconds after Monroe missed an opportunity to put the game away. The
visitor has had great success in this series and Florida Atlantic’s performance last week
against South Carolina may take a toll as the Owls played well before running out of gas in the
second half. Florida Atlantic has been the superior team in recent years and may be overly
favored against a veteran Monroe squad that has been able to move the ball reasonably well
against two very tough non-conference foes in addition to delivering a blowout against a FCS
team. Florida Atlantic is winless and this may be a tougher than expected spot to get that first
win as this has been a close series . FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 3

NEBRASKA (-26½) Louisiana 6:00 PM
This is the third Sun Belt game for Nebraska as the Huskers have won by 46 and 29 against
two teams that project higher than Louisiana in the conference. After knocking off Kansas
State in a big upset the Ragin’ Cajuns made LSU work for a win last week. In a third straight
game against a major conference foe this could be a tough situation however. Nebraska may
be emotionally drained after a very tough loss last week but the Huskers should find plenty of
open passing lanes in this match-up. Nebraska’s next game is a big one against Missouri but
they have an extra week before that match-up and this will be a critical bounce back spot for
the team. The Huskers have been v ery tough at home but in this situation off a tough loss this
may be too steep of a line considering how well Louisiana has played in recent years against
bigger schools. There will be no overlooking ULL but Nebraska could letdown after the first
loss of the year. NEBRASKA BY 20

NAVY (-27½) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky would have been a viable Sun Belt team at the FBS level a few years ago
but the Hilltoppers are caught in a very tough transition year as the team is down significantly.
Navy could not score a big upset last week and this should be by far the most favorable
match-up faced for the Midshipmen so far all season as the schedule has been very tough by
Navy standards. Navy’s defense has held up against quality competition and at 1-2 despite
playing well it will be critical to get off to a strong start and put this game away. Navy has not
performed well in the home favorite role as its style makes for a more effective underdog but
Western Kentucky is coming off three straight lopsided losses including last week against FCS
Central Arkansas. Central Arkansas is a quality team that is one of the best at that level in the
region and also nearly beat Hawaii earlier this season. Still it will be a depressing picture for
the Hilltoppers and the schedule will not get any easier this week. NAVY BY 31

ARKANSAS STATE (-1) Troy 3:30 PM
After a disappointing start to the season Troy got back on track last week and remains the
favorite in the Sun Belt. The Trojans won 35-9 against Arkansas State last season but this will
still be one of the key match-ups in the conference. Arkansas State is rushing for 250 yards
per game as they had decent production against Nebraska and the Red Wolves have had two
weeks to prepare for arguably the biggest game of the season on the schedule. Arkansas
State is 15-7 ATS as home underdogs since ’98 and Troy has underachieved so far this
season leaving some serious questions despite lofty projections. Troy’s defense is allowing
445 yards per game and even with the Florida game out of the equation this has not been the
team that was expected to dominate the Sun Belt. ARKANSAS STATE BY 4

Middle Tennessee State (-7½) NORTH TEXAS 6:00 PM
For the second year in a row MTSU knocked off Maryland and that game came off a win over
Memphis the previous week. The Blue Raiders should have great confidence but this is a
team that has not lived up to its billing in Sun Belt play in recent years despite often making
noise in non-conference games. Last season The Blue Raiders won 52-13 against North
Texas but the Mean Green are greatly improved. Without QB Dodge, UNT struggled last week
but there is no shame in a lopsided loss to Alabama. If Dodge is back North Texas could be a
dangerous underdog in this match-up and defensively the team is much better than the
numbers indicate. MTSU could fall a bit flat after two huge wins and now playing third road
game in four weeks. Last year’s game between these teams was much closer statistically than
the final score suggests and MTSU is reliant on a passing game that has shown some
inconsistency so far even with the big wins. MTSU BY 6

Toledo (PK) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6:00 PM
FIU is 0-2 but both games have been on the road against major conference foes and the
Panthers have taken the cover in both games. The statistics look grim relative to Toledo’s big
production but it is not a fair comparison at this point in the schedule. The Rockets did not
come close in last week’s in-state match-up but the win over Colorado and the big numbers
against Purdue show s what Toledo can do. This is not a team that has been successful on the
road however and FIU was tough at home last year. The Panthers have a veteran team that
won five games last year and beat Toledo 35-16 on the road a year ago. Turnovers were
critical in that game but this seems like another favorable spot for FIU. FIU BY 4

Nelly's Greensheet

NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 TENNESSEE (+2½) over NY Jets
RATING 4 PITTSBURGH (-4½) over Cincinnati
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-1½) over Chicago
RATING 2 GREEN BAY (-6½) over St. Louis
RATING 1 BUFFALO (+4) over New Orleans

NY JETS (-2½) Tennessee (37½) 12:00 PM
The Titans could easily be 2-0 as they have lost on late field goals in both games. Tennessee
has been very tough against the run but both Pittsburgh and Houston posted big days in the
air against the Titans defense that has not featured the same level of pass rush as in past
years. New York has been the surprise team of the season and last week’s win was
impressive as QB Sanchez is proving legit but more impressive has been the New York
defense. New York could face a letdown after pouring so much into last week’s game and
coming through with a huge win. If this game was played in week 1 the Titans surely would
have been favored and the losses came against two quality opponents. TITANS BY 3

HOUSTON (-4½) Jacksonville (47) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars were burned early by a blocked field goal last week in a game that ended up very
even statistically despite a 14-point margin. Jacksonville is now 0-2 but this is a much better
team than currently projected. Houston caught a few breaks to avoid the 0-2 hole and the
Texans could have some success passing again in this match-up. Jacksonville has not
performed well in this series historically but this will be a desperate situation for the Jaguars
and Houston has allowed 911 yards in two games. Trusting Houston laying points is
dangerous until a better defensive effort can be witnessed. JAGUARS BY 3

PHILADELPHIA (NL) Kansas City 12:00 PM
The Eagles posted big yardage last week but could not keep pace with the Saints and in a
NFC that looks much tougher this season Philadelphia can not afford another early season
loss, no matter who is at QB. Philadelphia was the beneficiary of turnovers in week one but
things went the other way last week. Kansas City was burned by turnovers as well as the
Chiefs had a big yardage edge against Oakland. The Chiefs finally put together a late scoring
drive to take the lead but Oakland responded and did the same thing to steal the win. The
Chiefs are 0-2 S/U and ATS but they have been in position to win fairly late in both games. QB
Cassel had a few mistakes in his debut but this offense has shown some promise.
Unfortunately Kansas City will play the NFC East in four straight games so getting the first win
could take a while. It is tough to call this game without the QB information. EAGLES BY 10

BALTIMORE (-13) Cleveland (39) 12:00 PM
The Ravens may be the team to beat in the AFC as the Chargers, Patriots, and Steelers all
took losses last week. Baltimore QB Flacco has been impressive and the Baltimore RB
committee provides a balance that few teams can match, or stop. Cleveland has looked the
most hopeless through two weeks with very limited offensive production and a complete
inability to stop the run. The Browns have allowed over 400 yards on the ground in two games
and the Ravens will be a very tough match-up. Baltimore is not what they once were on
defense but the offense has made up the difference and this has been a very good team in
the home favorite role. This will be a popular play but Baltimore is the pick. RAVENS BY 17

NY Giants (-7) TAMPA BAY (44) 12:00 PM
The Buccaneers are now 0-2 as early turnovers proved costly last week. The opposition has
been tough and it will not get any easier this week against the Giants. Tampa Bay moved the
ball effectively last week but falling behind early took away the running game that should be
the strong point of this team. New York needed a late rally to win last week despite owning a
4-0 turnover edge and although the Giants are 2-0 they have been far from dominant in two
tough division games. This could be a tricky spot for New York facing a second straight road
game off a big win Sunday night and the Bucs have historically been a strong home underdog
including covers in 16 of the last 22 instances. GIANTS BY 4

Washington (-6½) DETROIT (38½) 12:00 PM
The Redskins managed to avoid a 0-2 hole with a narrow win over St. Louis but the inability to
put points up has been scary for Washington. Detroit is 0-2 but New Orleans and Minnesota
look like two of the top teams in the NFC and the Lions played respectably close in both
games before fading away late. The Lions had 129 yards on the ground against Minnesota
which is an impressive feat but somewhat related to the rookie QB having his chances limited
after some early season mistakes. Washington is a tough team to trust as a road favorite and
this line is begging bettors to lay the points. REDSKINS BY 3

Green Bay (-6½) ST. LOUIS (41) 12:00 PM
The Packers were one of the most impressive preseason teams but there have been some
serious issues exposed in two weeks. Green Bay allowed Cincinnati to run the ball effectively
and the pass protection was problematic as the Bengals were able to create a lot of pressure.
St. Louis has done a decent job defensively but it will be tough to win averaging 3.5 points
scored per game. The Rams are just 6-15 ATS in the last 21 home games and there will not
exactly be resounding enthusiasm for the home opener that will probably feature a decent
amount of Packer fans traveling. Green Bay may be overvalued after two unimpressive games
but this is not the spot to catch them. The Packers can score points and the Rams will not be
able to keep up in a shootout. PACKERS BY 13

MINNESOTA (-7) San Francisco (40½) 12:00 PM
The Vikings are 2-0 and after slow starts in each game Minnesota has pulled away. Minnesota
opened with the first two games on the road but they also faced two of the worst teams in the
league. San Francisco is also 2-0 with a strong start in the NFC West with two division wins.
The 49ers have not been flashy on offense but RB Gore had a huge game last week and QB
Hill has avoided key mistakes that have plagued this team in the past. Hill is a former Vikings
back-up so he will be comfortable in the dome. Minnesota has been able to ride the running
game and capitalize on opponents mistakes but the 49ers defense may force the ball into the
air a bit more and there could be some issues. VIKINGS BY 3

NEW ENGLAND (-4) Atlanta (45) 12:00 PM
The Patriots probably should be 0-2 and they will face an Atlanta team that has lived up to the
hype with an impressive 2-0 start against two teams that won divisions last season. This will
be the first road game for the Falcons however but New England has been a lousy home
favorite the last two years. With a limited running game the Patriots could have trouble in this
match-up but Atlanta’s defense has not been fairly tested yet this season. The Falcons could
have some problems in the secondary and New England is capable of bouncing back with a
much better game plan after two ugly performances. The Patriots have not been this small of
a hom e favorite with Brady in the lineup since the home opener in 2007. PATRIOTS BY 7

Chicago (-1½) SEATTLE 3:05 PM
With QB Hasselbeck banged up the Seahawks will have some concerns but back-up Wallace
has some experience and has been with the team for a long time. Seattle did struggle
offensively last week and stopping the run will be a major concern after letting the Niners run
wild last week. The Bears got the win they needed with a late rally against Pittsburgh but the
tough opening schedule will continue with long travel out west. Chicago has not been able to
run the ball but the defense proved it can still be very effective even with a few key injuries.
Seattle remains one of the top home teams in the NFL with one of the few remaining home
field advantages and the Bears could letdown after a big win. SEAHAWKS BY 7

New Orleans (-4) BUFFALO 3:05 PM
The Saints have scored 48 points in each of the first two games and they travel again this
week back up to the northeast. The Bills caught a lot of breaks last week but still it has been
an impressive showing through two games and this has historically been a tough place to
play. The Saints have had huge numbers on offense but the defense has created seven
turnovers which have set up many of the extra scores. New Orleans has not proven it can
grind out a game and there have been mistakes on the offensive end that have not been
damaging yet. The Bills will play as home underdogs and the Saints will catch a lot of public
action here which could make this a dangerous spot. BILLS BY 3

SAN DIEGO (NL) Miami 3:15 PM
The Dolphins are coming off a critical Monday night game while the Chargers suffered a tough
home loss and may be off to another slow September start. With RB Tomlinson out the
running game had just 53 yards last week though QB Rivers had big numbers this team is
much better suited with more balance. Miami has covered in six in a row against San Diego
and although the Dolphins will have a hard time matching last year’s eleven wins, they are not
a worse team. The Chargers have failed in many recent home games and this team may be
overrated again, particularly at home and if Miami is 0-2. CHARGERS BY 3

Pittsburgh (-4½) CINCINNATI (37) 3:15 PM
The Steelers have had great recent success in this series and though the Steelers were
nearly 2-0 with a couple of costly missed field goals, they benefited from misses in a week 1
win and in reality Pittsburgh is not far from being 0-2. The Steelers have won and covered in
nine of the last eleven in this series and the Bengals may be getting too much credit for a big
win last week in Green Bay. Denver shut down the Bengals in week 1 and Cincinnati’s offense
is not ready to be trusted in this match-up. STEELERS BY 10

OAKLAND (-2½) Denver 3:15 PM
The Raiders managed to win last week with a late scoring drive after very limited production
on offense. Denver is a surprising 2-0 team that has delivered an unbelievable defensive
turnaround but the Broncos have faced two suspect opponents. Denver has failed in five of
the last six ATS against the Raiders and the Broncos were very ineffective on offense in their
last road game before being bailed out in the miracle finish. Oakland’s defense has stood tall
this season with commendable efforts and the Raiders should have some success running the
ball in this match-up. The Raiders look odd favored over a 2-0 team but don’t fall for it as
Denver is still a team with a lot of questions. RAIDERS BY 6

Indianapolis (NL) ARIZONA 7:20 PM
The Colts have not been impressive road favorites and they will lay points in a tough venue for
a second consecutive week. Facing long travel off a short week could be a problematic
situation and Arizona was able to bounce back from a shaky opener with a win last week. The
Colts have lost some punch offensively and although the Indianapolis defense can still be
effective this game will present some problematic match-ups should the Cardinals exploit
them. Arizona will be priced cheaply despite still being one of the most impressive offense
teams, and a team that appears to have added a complimentary running game to the mix with
decent results on the ground through two weeks. CARDINALS BY 4

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2009
DALLAS (-9½) Carolina (46) 7:35 PM
The Cowboys will play in primetime for the second straight week and a little more familiarity
with the surroundings might eliminate some of the costly mistakes. Dallas has not been sharp
defensively through two weeks last week ’s final drive came a little too easily and inevitably last
week for the Giants. Carolina cut down on mistakes and posted a great offensive game but
still ended up as the loser and the Panthers are already halfway to the losses they had all of
last season. Carolina has failed in seven of the last eight against Dallas S/U and the Panthers
are reeling in what will likely be a 0-3 start. COWBOYS BY 13

NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Undefeated 10+ dogs: At least 3-0 DD underdogs
PLAY ON: Any college football undefeated double-digit
underdog in Game 4 or later.
17-9-1, 65.3% since 2002

PLAY ON: Southern Miss, South Florida, Colorado State, & Iowa
Tighten It: Teams going against teams with at least one loss are 9-2, 82%
Fits: South Florida & Colorado State (vs. Florida State & BYU)

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Week 3 Home Opener: Teams starting with 2 on the road
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL team in game 3 that had to play
the first two weeks on the road
45-28-2, 61.6% since 1985

PLAY AGAINST: Minnesota, St. Louis
(PLAY ON: Green Bay, San Francisco)
Tighten It: If the team is 0-2 in this situation the system is 19-9-1, 70.4%
Fits: St. Louis (Play On: Green Bay)

OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Florida at Kentucky
The Gators are accustomed to posting huge numbers in blowout
wins which will force a higher number on this game. This could be a
lethargic Gators squad coming off a big win and also batting rumors
of the flu spreading around the team. Kentucky also enters this
game off a huge rivalry win so expecting both offenses to be a bit
flat makes sense. After allowing 63 points to Florida last season the
Wildcats will be focused on a much better defensive effort.

NFL: ‘UNDER’ Falcons at Patriots
Atlanta’s scoring has been greatly aided by turnovers in two games
and the Falcons have not rushed the ball as effectively as last
season. New England is clearly not near the level of play of two
years ago, or even last season and the Patriots are getting forced
into 3rd and long situations with a very limited rushing presence. New
England’s opening game barely pushed ‘over’ with a late scoring
flurry and last week’s game stayed well ‘under’. The ‘under’ was 6-2
in Atlanta road games last season and this will be the first road
game of the season for the Falcons.

The Gold Sheet 9/22-9/28
Gold Sheet Extra

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

COLLEGE RELEASES

ARMY
No, they’re not talking about the BCS at Army... but they’re not at
Iowa State, either, where the Black Knights of the Hudson travel for
a Saturday battle. And these assignments away from home have
worked out quite nicely of late for backers of West Point, which has
covered five of its last six as a visitor. Meanwhile, the Cyclones
have covered just 2 of their last 8 tries in what for them is an
unfamiliar chalk role. Iowa State is also a featured go-against play
this week in the Impotent Favorites system.

NEW MEXICO STATE
The “go against” theme continues in this week’s Tech Plays for
the intrastate “Land of Enchantment” (or is it disenchanment these
days?) battle at Albuquerque. And after beginning the season with
three lopsided defeats in as many games, we’re looking hard
against struggling New Mexico when it hosts New Mexico State
Saturday night. The Lobos’ pointspread woes extend back to late
last season, as they’ve now lost and failed to cover five games in a
row. Their two-game “AFS” number of -11.75 is one of the
nation’s worst. Moreover, the Aggies are featured plays this week
in the Rivalry Dogs and Impotent Favorites system (against
host UNM) this week.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Team and series trends present a compelling case for visiting
Middle Tennessee as it travels to Denton, Texas and historic
Fouts Field, adjacent to the car fumes of I-35E, for a Saturday Sun
Belt battle vs. host North Texas. Recent meetings have favored the
Blue Raiders, who have won and covered by big scores the last
three tussles vs. the Mean Green (win margin 31 ppg). MTSU has
also covered its last three chances as Sun Belt road chalk, while
UNT has dropped 9 of its last 12 Belt spread decisions at Denton.

NFL RELEASES

BALTIMORE
Recent trends paint a dismal picture for Cleveland and a cheery
one for Baltimore as the teams meet in an AFC North battle at M&T
Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon. The Ravens, who won and
covered handily in both meetings vs. the Brownies last season, are
now a sparkling 16-5 vs. the line since HC John Harbaugh arrived a
year ago, including a 7-2 mark as host. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s
pointspread losing streak has reached 6 staright, with 9 Ls in the
Browns’ last 11 games.

DENV.-OAK. “UNDER”
We’ll continue to look “under” in Denver games, including this
Sunday’s battle at Oakland, until further notice. The Broncos have
effectively been slowing down the pace of their first two games,
resulting in handy “unders” vs. the Bengals and Browns. That also
means “unders” in 10 of Denver’s last 14 games dating to last
season. The Raiders are also “under” 7-3-1 theirs last 11 since a
year ago.

GOLD SHEET

Key releases
RICE by 2 over Vanderbilt
PURDUE by 3 over Notre Dame
SOUTHERN CAL by 56 over Washington St.
OREGON STATE by 13 over Arizona

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
*Mississippi 31 - SOUTH CAROLINA 22—Favor payback-minded Ole Miss,
eager for rematch after failing to come down off cloud nine following Florida
upset previous week in LY’s lackluster 31-24 home loss vs. South Carolina.
Rebel triggerman Snead owns the more established ground attack, featuring
slashing RB Bolden (176 YR, 8 ypc). Look for Snead & prime-time WRs
McCluster & Hodge to hurt immature ‘Cock 2ndary starting a true frosh & soph
at CB. And with hard-charging Ole Miss DL applying pressure and now-cohesive
2ndary hardly resembling unit burned in LY’s series setback, Nutt’s road-tested
bunch (8-1 vs. spread last 9 away) extends overall winning streak to nine.
CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-S. Car. 31-MISS. 24...M.21-20 M.33/118 S.35/78 S.22/32/1/327 M.21/32/1/243 S.0 M.2)
(08-South Carolina +2' 31-24...SR: Mississippi 8-6)

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
*Missouri 37 - NEVADA 24—Nevada usually offers much better value in
Reno (19-8 vs. line at home since ‘04), but formful Wolf Pack can only be trusted
as a bully. And Nevada’s historic inability to “step up” should be exposed again
vs. percolating Mizzou bunch gaining more confidence under new QB Gabbert
(68%, 8 TDP & 0 picks) . Wolf Pack “Pistol” (only 10 ppg) mostly shooting itself
in foot these days as foes keeping QB Kaepernick (4 picks in two starts) in
relative check. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-MO. 69-Nev. 17...M.25-22 N.44/182 M.29/132 M.27/36/0/519 N.21/40/1/180 M.0 N.0)
(08-MISSOURI -26' 69-17...SR: Missouri 1-0)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
Wake Forest 26 - BOSTON COLLEGE 19—Eagles had just 54 total yards at
Clemson last week, accumulating as many first downs (4!) as they did turnovers.
Now that Wake HC Grobe ( 16-8 last 24 as dog) is back in touch with his inner
caveman and is pounding the rock on the ground (as he did early in his tenure
at Winston-Salem), count on Deacons’ savvy sr. QB Skinner to orchestrate
winning road effort.
(08-Bos. Col. 24-W. FOR. 21...B.14-9 B.44/97 W.28/65 B.16/27/0/137 W.14/28/2/126 B.3 W.0)
(08-Bc +1' 24-21 07-BC -6 38-28 06-WFU +4 21-14...SR: Boston College 8-6-2)

OHIO STATE 27 - Illinois 20—Indications are that Illinois QB Juice Williams
is recovering well from his quad injury in the week off. While the Illini will miss
LB Wilson (back injury; lost for season), the bye week allowed HC Zook’s team
to regain services of several injured players. OSU bounced back in a big way
in 38-0 whitewash of Toledo, but talented Illini are a moneymaker as a Big Ten
road dog and outgained the Buckeyes 455-354 last season; 400-336 in 2007.
OSU QB Pryor will get his yards (110 YR last week; 110 vs. Illini LY), but Illinois
offense will counter. TV—ABC
(08-Ohio St. 30-ILL. 20...I.25-16 O.52/305 I.35/214 I.20/34/1/241 O.6/10/0/49 O.1 I.1)
(08-Osu -9' 30-20 07-Ill. +15 28-21 06-Osu -25 17-10...SR: Ohio State 61-30-4)

NORTHWESTERN 30 - Minnesota 24—NW QB Kafka threw for 390 yds. &
3 scores at Syracuse, but it wasn’t enough as Wildcat defense couldn’t stop the
Orange down the stretch. Minnesota showed some character in rebounding
from a 14-0 deficit against Cal to tie the game and give powerful Bears a scare
(21-21 with under 8 mins. left). However, Gopher WR Decker (3rd in nation in
rec. yds.) might be gimpy and Minny “D” .
(08-North. 24-MINN. 17...M.20-16 N.41/220 M.25/68 M.32/52/1/327 N.12/16/2/143 N.0 M.1)
(08-Nwu +7 24-17 07-NWU -6' 49-48 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 49-30-5)

MICHIGAN 38 - Indiana 12—Both teams off to 3-0 starts, but similarities end
there. Revitalized Michigan is getting more ground production than it has in the
last decade thanks to Rich Rodriguez’ spread and the instant success of handpicked
true frosh triggerman Forcier. If experienced Wolverine OL can block
Hoosier DE stars Middleton & Kirlew, this one’s over early.
(06-Michigan -19 34-3...SR: Michigan 50-9)
Buffalo 24 - TEMPLE 14—Temple is 1-20 SU the last 4+ seasons before Oct.
1, and Owls’ 107th-ranked offense doesn’t look as if it’s capable of testing the
Buffalo defense the way much more talented Pitt and UCF did the last two
weeks. Bull QB Maynard (743 YP, 6 TDP) likely to hurt Owl 2ndary that’s yielded
4 TDP & has intercepted just 1 pass in first 2 games. Buffalo HC Gill’s team will
win the turnover battle this week.
(08-BUF. 30-Temple 28...B.24-19 T.27/104 B.31/101 B.29/42/1/348 T.24/33/0/285 B.1 T.1)
(08-BUF. -6' 30-28 07-Buf. +3' 42-7 06-BUF. -6 9-3 (OT)...SR: Buffalo 4-0)

Michigan State 31 - WISCONSIN 26—MSU coming off back-to-back bitter
defeats, but return of WR Dell (120 yds. at ND) and rapid development of
Spartan QB Cousins (66%; just 1 int.) has to be encouraging for HC Dantonio.
Wisconsin has been a money-burning 8-17 last 25 against the points, and
defense hasn’t quite adjusted to the suspensions and lineup shuffling since
spring, while Spartans defend the run better than Badgers. Totals note: Last six
in the series “over” the total.
(08-MICH. ST. 25-Wis. 24...W.21-20 W.47/281 M.29/25 M.20/45/0/287 W.14/29/0/149 M.1 W.1)
(08-MSU -5' 25-24 07-WIS. -7' 37-34...SR: Michigan State 27-20)

Tcu 23 - CLEMSON 17—Go-with vs. go-with. Young Clemson HC Swinney
has covered 7 of his last 9; veteran Horned Frog mentor Patterson counters with
a 13-5 spread mark in his last 18 board games. Tigers can strike from anywhere
on field with supersonic seniors WR Ford and RB Spiller (15 career TDs covering
50+ yards!), whose latest foot/toe injury is not considered serious. But
seasoned TCU jr. QB Dalton more likely to move chains than green RS frosh
Clemson counterpart Parker (just 47%).
(DNP...SR: Clemson 2-1)

Rutgers 28 - MARYLAND 20—Demoralized Terp defense allowed 52 points
& 542 yards during opener at Cal, got bowled over for 268 YR in OT win over
James Madison, and then strafed for 351 yards in air during home loss to Middle
Tennessee. Can Rutgers offense take full advantage with either raw true frosh
QB Savage (just 11 of 28 last week vs. FIU) or limited sr. Natale (benched after
3 ints. in first half of opener) at the trigger?
(07-Maryland +18 34-24...SR: Maryland 5-3)

*Boise State 37 - BOWLING GREEN 13—With BCS-buster BSU leapfrogging
the other non-BCS squad, BYU, in polls, prefer supremely-motivated &
confident Broncos, who’re just a safety away from an 8-0 road chalk mark since
late Oct. 2007. Normally-stifling BSU defense has been called out by HC
Petersen for missing lots of tackles in 51-34 victory at Fresno State. And expect
BSU’s super-soph QB Moore to outduel Falcon counterpart Sheehan, frustrated
by Broncos topnotch CBs K. Wilson & B. Thompson. Falcons lifeless ground
game (10 YR vs. Marshall!) offers no help.
(08-BOISE 20-B. Green 7...G.22-16 Bs.33/160 G.36/103 G.22/36/1/204 Bs.18/23/0/180 Bs.1 G.2)
(08-BOISE STATE -17 20-7...SR: Boise State 2-0)

*TENNESSEE 23 - Ohio 14—Though UT hung surprisingly tough in 23-13
loss at Florida, not interested in laying DDs vs. industrious Ohio squad that’s 5-
1 as DD road dog since ‘06 (only spread loss at Mizzou in ‘06). Have more faith
in Bobcats dual-threat sr. T. Scott (career-best 239 YP last week) than Vols stillshaky
Crompton (7 ints. TY), who has little rapport with a green corps of WRs.
And doubt Lane Kiffin’s “smashmouth” tactics dominate vs. Bobcats veteran,
sure-tackling front 7, spearheaded by omnipresent MLB Keller. (FIRST MEETING)
EAST CAROLINA 24 - Ucf 23—After covering 20 of his first 28 at helm of
Pirates, ECU HC Holtz is just 3-11 vs. spread his last 14 on board. Meanwhile,
UCF mentor O’Leary is 10-4 as dog since late 2006, and Wake transfer Hodges
finally giving Golden Knights a little stability at QB. Pirates outscored 41-5 after
intermission TY.
(08-E. Car. 13-UCF 10 (OT)...E.17-12 E.44/134 U.37/82 E.13/34/1/149 U.9/21/1/142 E.1 U.2)
(08-Ecu -3' 13-10 (OT) 07-ECU +3' 52-38 06-Ecu -5' 23-10...SR: East Carolina 7-1)

CINCINNATI 42 - Fresno State 20—Cincy’s 6-6 sr. QB Pike (923 YP on 71%
completions in first 3 games!) is light years ahead of shaky Bulldog jr. lefty
Colburn (already 6 ints. TY). Visiting dog has historically been good pointspread
role for fiery Fresno HC Hill, but must note he’s just 11-30-1 in last 42 against
line overall. Bearcats’ defensive speed will keep rampaging Bulldog RB
Matthews (nation-leading 447 YR) from running wild. (FIRST MEETING)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 - Akron 16—Check status of Akron sr. QB
Jacquemain, who was suspended prior to last week’s double-digit home loss to
Indiana. Don’t want Zips at competent Central Michigan if soph backup Rodgers
(4 ints. against Hoosiers) still under center opposing Chippewa star QB LeFevour.
(07-Cmu -3 35-32 06-CMU +1 24-21...SR: Central Michigan 12-9-1)
Lsu 34 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 12—Now that MSU has LSU’s full attention
following 15-3 upset at Vandy, would lay fair number with superior Tiger squad
that’s covered 8 of past 10 in series (last 8 wins by avg. 32-pt. margin). Look for
crafty d.c. John Chavis to stack line vs. Bulldogs (56 rushes, just 18 pass
attempts vs. ‘Dores), putting undue pressure on unfinished QBs Lee & Relf.
Meanwhile, LSU’s better-balanced, star-studded attack bedazzles MSU defense,
overmatched (allowed 49 pts. & 589 yds. in 25-pt. loss) by
similarly-equipped Auburn arsenal two weeks ago.
(08-LSU 34-Miss. St. 24...L.22-13 L.37/166 M.31/110 L.18/27/1/261 M.17/26/0/175 L.1 M.0)
(08-LSU -24' 34-24 07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17...SR: LSU 66-33-3)

*IOWA STATE 24 - Army 20—Disciplined Army has been a fairly-decent
traveler, covering 5 of its last 6 as a visitor. And ISU only 2-6 its last 8 when
favored. Cyclones took full advantage of true frosh Kent State QB Spencer Keith
making his first start in last week’s ISU 34-14 victory. Black Knights’ true frosh
QB Trent Steelman making his fourth start. Cyclones generate few long gainers;
veteran Army defense gives up few.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

MEMPHIS 32 - Marshall 21—Tigers benched unsteady incumbent sr. signalcaller
Hall last week in favor of soph Bass, who fired 4 TDP while rushing for 80
yards & another score during easy home win over Tennessee-Martin. Even with
star Memphis RB Steele (knee; 1223 YR in 2008) sidelined, still lean to host
Tigers over poor-traveling Marshall ( just 5-16 vs. spread last 21 away from
Huntington!).
(08-MAR. 17-Mem. 16...Me.26-16 Ma.33/179 Me.29/94 Me.29/54/0/368 Ma.14/29/0/224 Ma.0 Me.1)
(08-MAR. -4' 17-16 07-MEMP. -2' 24-21 06-MAR. -9' 41-27...SR: EVEN 2-2)

*TEXAS A&M 35 - Uab 13—A&M defense (13 points allowed last 6 mins. of
38-30 win) coughed up the cover last week vs. Utah State, but Aggies confirmed
they are a burgeoning offensive juggernaut (606 yards, 573 yards) in two games
so far. HC Mike Sherman unveiled true frosh WR Uzoma Nwachukwu (3 TDC,
1 TDR) last week, and dual-threat QB Jerrod Johnson now has 6 TDP vs. 0
interceptions. UAB QB Webb is slick, but lacks dynamic supporting cast.
(FIRST MEETING)

KANSAS 37 - Southern Miss 17—USM’s Larry Fedora emerged as head
coaching material after a 3-year stint as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma
State, where he split with KU in two meetings. But even with Eagles’ respected
firepower, offensive edge still goes to beautifully-balanced Jayhawks, whose
heady QB Todd Reesing (37 TDs, only 14 ints. 2008-09) being aided by 235-
pound true frosh power back Toben Opurum (5 TDs TY). KU 8-2 as DD home
favorite. (FIRST MEETING)

AIR FORCE 31 - San Diego State 20—Although uninspired effort at Idaho
might indicate otherwise, much-maligned SDSU “D” probably better equipped to
deal with Air Force option than in recent years simply because new d.c. Rocky
Long had plenty of experiencing facing it (and occasional success slowing it
down) while at New Mexico. And Falcs might be using backup Dietz at QB if
more-explosive Jefferson sidelined by bad ankle. Capable Aztec QB Lindley
should keep visitors within earshot.
(08-Air For. 35-S. DIEGO ST. 10...A.30-12 A.77/401 S.27/35 S.19/38/2/130 A.5/7/0/72 A.2 S.0)
(08-Afa -10' 35-10 07-AFA -12 55-23 06-SDS +13 19-12...SR: Air Force 18-9)

*** *RICE 25 - Vanderbilt 23—Sight of often-invisible Rice “D” (47 ppg)
might be just what the doctor ordered for Vandy o.c. Ted Cain’s “Rockettes” (1-
2-3- kick!) attack that made Miss. State’s “D” look like the Baltimore Ravens in
last week’s 15-3 loss. But hard to lay any meaningful points with Dore “O” that’s
been held to 16 or fewer in 10 of last 11 games vs. FBS opposition. Rice spread
finally started to get the hang of things at Ok. State, and Owls 18-5 as home dog
since ‘99. Easy to envision upset.
(08-VANDY 38-Rice 21...R.23-22 V.43/273 R.34/108 R.25/40/1/299 V.7/16/0/71 V.0 R.1)
(08-VANDERBILT -8 38-21...SR: Vanderbilt 3-1)

*AUBURN 45 - Ball State 7—Since o.c. Malzahn’s well-designed, highpowered
attack running as smoothly as a Ferrari, must “lay it” with well-conditioned
Auburn, which has outscored opposition 79-20 in 2nd H. BSU’s erratic QB Page
(5 ints. TY; 3 vs. Army), who was benched in loss at West Point, figures to
implode again vs. ball-hawking Auburn 2ndary (5 ints. vs. WV). Outclassed
Cards, destroyed 63-3 on The Plains in 2005, won’t fare much better in ‘09 trip
vs. re-energized Tigers.
(DNP...SR: Auburn 2-0)

Unlv 25 - WYOMING 24—UNLV displaying some bowl-caliber signs, but still
not sure we want to lay points away with Rebs, who are just 2-9 overall as chalk
since ‘05 for Mike Sanford and haven’t covered as road favorite since John
Robinson was still at the helm back in ‘03. Dave Christensen struggling to get
his new Wyo spread moving as he continues to look for a QB (three used last
week at Colorado). But yielding UNLV “D” gives Cowboys a better chance than
vs. recent Big XII foes Texas & Buffs.
(08-UNLV 22-Wyo. 14...U.20-15 U.50/166 W.33/151 U.17/31/0/157 W.12/21/2/143 U.0 W.1)
(08-UNLV -7 22-14 07-WYO. -11 29-24 06-Wyo. -9' 34-26...SR: UNLV 9-8)

ALABAMA 33 - Arkansas 20—With pointspread rising following last week’s
disparate results, give offensively-potent Arkansas a shot to hang inside roomy
number in Tuscaloosa, where Tide just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host.
Hogs’ strong-armed QB Mallett (408 YP vs. Georgia) & his blossoming soph
WRs (Childs & Wright combined 248 receiving yds. vs. Dawgs) should give Tide
2ndary its toughest test so far. And while Bama QB McElroy is real deal, believe
seasoned Hog defense displays greater passion & purpose following embarrassing
51-pt. allowance last week. TV—CBS
(08-Ala. 49-ARK. 14...Ar.19-15 Al.35/328 Ar.31/92 Ar.24/46/4/217 Al.6/15/1/74 Al.0 Ar.0)
(08-Ala. -9 49-14 07-ALA. -3 41-38 06-ARK. -2' 24-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 23-15)

*Florida 42 - KENTUCKY 10—Though UF didn’t beat down UT the way
envisioned, still support Gators, who’ve not had consecutive spread losses
since late Sept. ‘07! UF’s field general Tebow has more typical Heisman-like
performance after failing to throw TDP for the 1st time in 31 games and making
a couple of TOs (converted into 10 pts.) vs. Vols. Contrarily, Wildcats drop-back
QB Hartline flatlines vs. deep Gator defense that hasn’t allowed a meaningful TD
TY. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-FLA. 63-Ky. 5...F.23-17 F.41/214 K.33/141 F.13/18/1/232 K.17/36/1/127 F.0 K.0)
(08-FLA. -25' 63-5 07-Fla. -7 45-37 06-FLA. -26' 26-7...SR: Florida 42-17)

*GEORGIA 30 - Arizona State 24—Since ASU has essentially had nearly a
month to prepare for revenge game vs. UGA, suggest “taking” vs. Bulldog squad
that continues to have serious 2ndary issues under beleaguered d.c. Martinez
(yielded a whopping 718 YP vs. USC & Arkansas!). No solutions found vs. Sun
Devils’ strong-armed, 5th-year sr. QB Sullivan & productive WRs. And since
ASU reportedly boasts its best front 7 in years, not sure Bulldog offense
explodes vs. redemptive Pac-10 foe itching to erase memory of 5-7 ‘08
campaign (tied for its worst since ‘01). CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Georgia 27-ARIZ. ST. 10...G.24-14 G.39/176 A.19/4 G.16/28/0/285 A.23/36/0/208 G.0 A.1)
(08-Georgia -7 27-10...SR: Georgia 1-0)

California 34 - OREGON 22—Pac-10 sources suspect last week’s results
more meaningful for Cal, which proved it could win in hostile territory (which it
hasn’t done in recent years) at Minnesota. Meanwhile, Oregon’s success over
Utah tempered by fact that QB Masoli (just 4 of 16 thru air vs. Utes) still
resembling a shell of himself from LY, when Chip Kelly wasn’t encumbered by
HC duties as he is now. Bear QB Riley (0 ints.) finally heeding Jeff Tedford’s
advice and cutting down mistakes, and big-play Cal “D” more likely to make
momentum-changing plays. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-CAL. 26-Ore. 16...O.21-16 O.50/206 C.40/132 C.20/39/1/216 O.11/32/2/84 C.4 O.1)
(08-CAL. -3 26-16 07-Cal. +6' 31-24 06-CAL. -5 45-24...SR: California 39-30-2)

FLORIDA STATE 33 - South Florida 13—Ambitious South Florida trying to
adjust on the fly after record-setting sr. QB Grothe suffered season-ending knee
injury during easy home romp over Charleston Southern. Bulls’ cocky defense will
battle hard but is stepping waaaaaaaay up in class against blossoming Florida State
attack, which had its way with well-regarded BYU stop unit in last week’s surprising
win at Provo. TV—ESPNU (FIRST MEETING)

North Carolina 21 - GEORGIA TECH 20—Desperation is a powerful motivator,
and Georgia Tech will fall to 0-2 in ACC’s Coastal Division with a loss to Tar
Heels. But prefer to shade fundamentals, which find Carolina with an emerging
cast of young receivers and enough speed on defense to keep Jackets’ option
mostly bottled up. Heel HC Butch Davis has covered 7 of his last 9 as dog.
(08-N. CAR. 28-Ga. Tech 7...G.20-13 G.54/326 N.42/186 N.8/19/0/128 G.10/23/1/97 N.0 G.2)
(08-UNC -4' 28-7 07-TECH -10' 27-25 06-Tech -13' 7-0...SR: Georgia Tech 23-18-3)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34 - Idaho 25—Could excuse buoyant NIU for some
extra celebration after rare win in Big Ten country at Purdue. And mini 5-7 RB
Me’co Brown (6.5 ypc) emerging as MAC version of Oregon State mighty-mite
Jacquizz Rodgers. But Idaho not as helpless this year now that jr. QB Enderle
has a competent infantry diversion, and Vandals providing some unaccustomed
value (3-0 vs. line!) out of gate. (07-Northern Illinois +3 42-35...SR: Northern Illinois 3-2)
BYU 33 - Colorado State 23—Perhaps angry BYU will take out its frustrations
after Florida State debacle. But with Cougs having to re-calibrate their
postseason aspirations downward toward the Las Vegas Bowl after BCS
dreams were shattered by the Seminoles, we’re not convinced the Provo bunch
can extend margin vs. undervalued CSU. Rams now on 6-game win streak (5-0
vs. line) as sr. QB Stucker emerges as a serviceable offensive pilot.
(08-Byu 45-COLO. ST. 42...B.32-19 B.35/162 C.29/131 B.28/35/1/389 C.19/36/0/270 B.2 C.1)
(08-Byu -14' 45-42 07-BYU -21 35-16 06-Byu -15 24-3...SR: BYU 37-27-3)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31 - Pittsburgh 26—Even though much-maligned
Pitt sr. QB Stull (70% in 2009) looking like late a bloomer, still give edge
to State’s soph signal-caller R. Wilson, who’s riding NCAA-record streak of 329
pass attempts without an interception. If Wolfpack defense slows down
sensational Panther true frosh RB D. Lewis (398 YR), Wilson (4 TDP in each of
last two games) will make the winning plays. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(DNP...SR: Pittsburgh 5-2-1)

*STANFORD 23 - Washington 13—It’s been a few years (try 2001, when this
coaching matchup featured Ty Willingham vs. Rick Neuheisel) since a Stanford-
U Dub game meant much in the Pac-10. But if Huskies still on cloud nine (which
would be understandable) after rousing SC upset, Jim Harbaugh’s bunch ready
to bring UW back to earth. Slamming RB Gerhart (105 ypg) providing effective
diversion for maturing Card RS frosh QB Luck, and vet Stanford “D” can keep
tabs on Jake Locker.
(08-Stan. 35-WASH. 28...W.27-21 S.36/244 W.38/140 W.18/36/0/237 S.16/24/0/222 S.1 W.1)
(08-Stan. +3 35-28 07-Wash. -3 27-9 06-Stan. +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-35-4)

*KENT STATE 31 - Miami-Ohio 20—Miami finally put some points on the
board against W. Mich., but not until after the RedHawk defense had dug a 35-
0 hole for Mike Haywood’s team. Kent has offensive shortcomings of its own.
Altnough QB situation remains clouded by injuries to Morgan & Magazu, frosh
Keith did okay against Iowa St., throwing for 255 yds. & 2 TDs and connecting
with 10 different receivers in loss to Cyclones.
(08-Kent St. 54-MIAMI 21...K.24-18 K.54/305 M.33/147 M.18/31/2/171 K.12/20/0/163 K.0 M.4)
(08-Ksu +4' 54-21 07-Miami +9 20-13 06-Ksu +12' 16-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 28-21-2)

*UTAH 29 - Louisville 24—It’s obviously not 2008 anymore for Utah, which
is missing a lot of playmakers from LY’s unbeaten crew. And if recurring
sloppiness (7 TOs already) doesn’t abate, Utes will have problems extending
margin vs. Steve Kragthorpe’s Louisville bunch that is finally finding some
offensive balance with new QB Burke emerging as competent accomplice along
with slashing RB V. Anderson. Note Utah no covers in three tries this season.
(07-Utah +14' 44-35...SR: Utah 3-0)

Miami-Florida 23 - VIRGINIA TECH 19—Somewhat wary of public skewing
spread toward Hurricanes, as Miami bandwagon filling up fast after impressive
wins at Florida State & vs. Georgia Tech. And revenge-minded Virginia Tech HC
Beamer almost always exacts his pound of flesh, the Hokies covering 6 of their
last 7 in payback mode. Hard to ignore that composed Cane soph QB Harris
(70%) is a much more confident passer than Tech counterpart Taylor, however.
(08-MIAMI 16-Va. Tech 14...V.14-13 M.42/123 V.38/77 V.12/20/0/173 M.8/18/0/124 M.1 V.0)
(08-MIAMI -4 16-14 07-TECH -16' 44-14 06-Tech -2 17-10...SR: Miami-Florida 17-9)

*** *PURDUE 34 - Notre Dame 31—Purdue’s might yield some yards and
points to ND QB Clausen (2nd in country in passing efficiency), but feel Purdue
RB Bolden (140 ypg rushing) and his experienced OL can play a little keepaway.
ND was extremely fortunate to get away with a win against Michigan State, and
with Purdue coming off a pair of disappointing losses, would shade a Boiler
bounceback at home against a defensively-vulnerable, high profile target.
Charlie Weis’ offensive options not quite the same with homerun WR Floyd
sidelined. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-N. DAME 38-Purdue 21...23-23 N.40/201 P.17/103 P.29/55/1/359 N.20/35/0/275 N.0 P.0)
(08-UND -1' 38-21 07-PUR. -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21...SR: Notre Dame 52-26-2)

TEXAS 44 - Utep 16—Longhorns mostly toyed with host UTEP LY while
helping the Miners build a sellout crowd (thanks to thousands of Texas-Exes).
UTEP’s only win TY was at impotent N.M. State, but Miners have a veteran
offense and slightly improved defense. UT has yet to cover its big 2009 imposts,
and Mack Brown eager to develop younger players with his eye on Oct. 17
shootout vs. Oklahoma.
(08-Texas 42-UTEP 13...T.26-23 U.31/145 T.31/122 T.20/29/1/282 U.25/46/0/267 T.0 U.1)
(08-Texas -27 42-13...SR: Texas 1-0)

*PENN STATE 24 - Iowa 19—Warmups are over, and they’re playing for
keeps in the Big Ten. A bit more impressed with Iowa’s 3-0 start than Penn
State’s, as Hawkeyes’ quality wins vs. Iowa St. & Arizona trump Penn State’s
lightweight schedule. Certainly, Paterno’s crew will be reminded about last
year’s loss in Iowa City, which cost Nittany Lions a possible shot at the BCS
Champsionship game, but can’t lay more than 7 points against heady Hawkeye
QB Stanzi and emerging frosh RB Adam Robinson.
(08-IOWA 24-Penn St. 23...P.24-19 P.46/180 I.32/101 I.15/25/1/171 P.10/24/1/109 I.1 P.1)
(08-IOWA +7' 24-23 07-PSU -9 27-7...SR: Penn State 12-9)

*HOUSTON 45 - Texas Tech 41—Potent Red Raiders won’t take this trip
lightly after Houston went to Stillwater and knocked off Oklahoma State. Still,
Tech coming off draining battle at hated Texas, while Cougars benefit from an
extra week of prep, as well as the swagger they gained in upsetting Cowboys.
With gun-slinging jr. QB Keenum (51 TDP vs. only 12 ints. in last 1+ seasons!)
firing away, UH fully capable of prevailing in shootout with former Southwest
Conf. rival Tech. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(DNP...SR: Houston 17-10-1)

*New Mexico State 20 - NEW MEXICO 19—It’s the “Land of (Dis)Enchantment”
these days, as the state’s two top programs endure growing pains under
respective new mentors Mike Locksley (UNM) and DeWayne Walker (NMSU).
Not sure we can make a strong case for either, but Walker’s Aggies at least seem
to be committed to establishing a ground component, while Locksley’s misfiring
Lobo spread ready to make switch at QB (starter Porterie pulled in favor of RS
frosh Holbrook vs. Air Force).
(08-N. Mex. 35-N. MEX. ST. 24...U.23-15 U.63/297 S.18/48 S.24/38/1/382 U.7/16/1/55 U.0 S.0)
(08-Unm -3 35-24 07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28...SR: New Mexico 66-28-5)

*** *SOUTHERN CAL 56 - Washington State 0—Unless SMU’s Bo Levi
Mitchell shows up at QB this week for SC (let’s not give Pete Carroll any crazy
ideas) after Wazzu picked off the Mustang pilot 4 times and returned two of
those for TDs last week, hard to imagine limited Cougs getting on the board
vs. angry SC stop unit. Remember, Troy was eased up in LY’s 69-0 rout in
the Palouse, and Carroll shows little mercy coming off a loss (6-1 vs. points
off last 7 SU losses).
(08-S. Cal 69-WASH. ST. 0...S.28-4 S.49/362 W.37/88 S.16/21/0/263 W.6/9/1/28 S.0 W.2)
(08-Usc -43 69-0 07-USC -25 47-14 06-Usc -16' 28-22...SR: Southern Cal 56-8-4)

*** *OREGON STATE 29 - Arizona 16—Since Arizona o.c. Sonny Dykes’
spread still unsettled on a pilot (ineffective starter QB Scott pulled in 4th Q at Iowa
for backup Foles) and star TE Gronkowski now lost for season, not sure Cats are
going to fare much better at Corvallis than they did at Iowa City. OSU has no
sympathy for UA woes after facing Cincy’s deadeye Tony Pike, and Mike Riley
due to be welcoming back the other half of his two-headed QB monster (sr.
Moevao due back from shoulder woes) to give Beaver “O” extra flexibility.
(08-Ore. St. 19-AZ. 17...A.19-17 O.33/166 A.41/139 O.20/32/0/224 A.16/22/0/158 O.0 A.0)
(08-Osu +2' 19-17 07-OSU -3 31-16 06-Osu -2' 17-10...SR: Arizona 20-11-1)

ADDED GAMES

La. Monroe 24 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23—Howard Schnellenberger’s FAU
used to getting roughed up by the big boys (Nebraska & South Carolina did the
honors TY) before straightening itself in Belt play. But recent Owl matchups vs.
ULM have gone down to the wire, and Warhawks won’t blink after their own trips
to Texas & Arizona State. ULM’s capable 2ndary a good match for FAU QB Rusty
Smith, and note Charlie Weatherbie 10-2 last 12 as Belt road dog.
(08-Fau 29-LA.-MON. 28...23-23 L.36/155 F.30/151 F.28/39/2/267 L.22/29/1/216 F.1 L.1)
(08-Fau -2 29-28 07-Ulm +6 33-30 (OT) 06-Fau +14 21-19...SR: La.-Monroe 3-2)

*NEBRASKA 37 - La.-Lafayette 3—Brutal late loss last week for Nebraska at
Virginia Tech. But Huskers likely to be re-inflated by unprecedented 300th
straight home sellout crowd, with NU wearing 1962 throwback uniforms. Lafayette
should oblige with its marginal offense (10 ppg in two FBS games). Huskers 4-
1 vs. spread nonconference under Bo Pelini, except for nemesis VT.
(FIRST MEETING)

NAVY 42 - Western Kentucky 9—After already dealing with rough Ohio State
& Pitt on road, Navy will feel like it’s on a date with Megan Fox vs. FBS baby WKU,
whose new “pro style” offense more resembles a college version of the St. Louis
Rams after getting humbled by FCS Central Arkansas last week. Fun time for
Mid option vs. Tops’ rush “D” allowing whopping 275 ypg. (FIRST MEETING)

ARKANSAS STATE 34 - Troy 28—Trojans have had ASU’s number lately,
and Troy sr. QB Levi Brown (413 YP last week!) capable of picking apart a
defense. Still, rested Red Wolves own resourceful vet QB in sr. Leonard, the best
RB on field in sr. Arnold (1000+ YR in each of his first 3 seasons), and 10 victories
in their last 12 at Jonesboro.
(08-TROY 35-Ark. St. 9...A.19-17 A.45/160 T.30/156 T.15/24/0/181 A.17/32/2/172 T.0 A.1)
(08-TROY -11' 35-9 07-Troy -5 27-0 06-Asu +8 33-26...SR: Arkansas State 6-4)

*Middle Tennessee State 34 - NORTH TEXAS 23—Check status of Mean
Green starting QB Riley Dodge (separated non-throwing shoulder), who (luckily
for him) sat out last week’s beatdown at Bama. Unless Dodge back in action,
UNT has little hope of trading points against Middle’s dynamic new spread
offense & grooving Blue Raider jr. QB Dasher.
(08-MTSU 52-N. Tx. 13...M.24-20 M.28/237 N.36/143 M.20/36/2/252 N.25/39/0/221 M.1 N.3)
(08-MTS -20 52-13 07-Mts -13 48-28 06-Mts +4 35-0...SR: North Texas 5-3)

*Toledo 31 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 26—Toledo dropping in class and
looking for a little revenge for last season’s upset home loss. FIU has covered
first two TY, but Panthers were getting double-digits in both, and their 117thranked
attack won’t keep pace with high-octane Rocket offense that will put up
points after being bottled up by motivated Ohio St. last week.
(08-Fla. Intl. 35-TOLEDO 16...T.20-12 F.45/141 T.31/94 T.27/46/1/208 F.6/13/0/98 F.0 T.3)
(08-Florida Intl. +19' 35-16...SR: Florida Intl. 1-0)

NFL ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA by 17 over San Francisco
DENVER by 12 over Oakland
OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Buffalo game

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Tennessee 17 - NY JETS 12—It’s still a bit early to hit the panic button in
Tennessee (lost first two by FG each). Jeff Fisher knows the odds of reaching
the playoffs after an 0-3 start are slim, at best. So, expect kamikaze effort from
Titans, who will present a more-menacing infantry dimension (Chris Johnson
197 YR last week vs. Texans) than the Houston & New England spreadoriented
attacks that Rex Ryan’s defense stuffed the first two weeks. Not sure
still-learning rookie Mark Sanchez ready to exploit Tennessee from the air as
did Texans’ Schaub last week.
(08-Jets 34-TENN. 13...N.28-16 N.39/192 T.11/45 T.21/39/0/236 N.25/32/1/217 N.1 T.1)
(08-NY Jets +5' 34-13...SR: Tennessee 22-16-1)

HOUSTON 30 - Jacksonville 20—Amazing how the Houston offense got
back in gear once Matt Schaub (4 TDP at Tennessee) was able to relocate
Andre Johnson (10 recs., 149 yds., 2 TDs vs. Titans), confirming reports that
Gary Kubiak is one of the best at exploiting an advantage once identified. Not
sure Jag pass defense will fare much better after allowing Kurt Warner (24 of
26!) to nearly pitch a “perfect game” last week. Jax offense missing the balance
and dimensions RB Fred Taylor long provided, and hungry Texan tackle-machine
MLB DeMeco Ryans (17 Ts so far) well-suited to track Jag playmaker “MJD.”
(08-JAC. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0)
(08-HOU. 30-Jack. 17...J.21-18 H.26/126 J.26/126 J.25/35/1/262 H.14/25/1/200 H.0 J.2)
(08-JACKSONVILLE -7 30-27 (OT), HOUSTON -3 30-17...SR: Houston 8-6)

PHILADELPHIA 24 - Kansas City 17—K.C. pretty sure Andy Reid is going
use Michael Vick this week, but in which situations and which role, as Vick is
reportedly armed with about a 10-play package. And, with Jeff Garcia added to
the mix, the Philly QB logjam is an issue, at least until Donovan McNabb is
100%, and maybe even then. At least Todd Haley’s Kansas City QB situation
is more stable with Matt Cassel back in action, although Chiefs’ offense not
going anywhere until Larry Johnson (only 2.8 ypc) finds room to run. Still,
Chiefs were covering both their games TY as of the two-minute warning!
(05-Philadelphia +1' 37-31...SR: Phila. 3-2)

BALTIMORE 27 - Cleveland 10—Eric Mangini’s mind games apparently not
helping the performance of Brady Quinn, who could be excused for looking over
his shoulder to see if Derek Anderson is warming up. But scouts insist a bigger
concern for Cleveland is skill-position weaponry that’s far below NFL standards
(RB Jamal Lewis past his sell-by date, top WR Braylon Edwards erratic, TE
Kellen Winslow traded). No such concerns at Baltimore, with three solid RBs
and Joe Flacco’s rapid maturation allowing John Harbaugh to open up the
offense (35 ppg first 2!).
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(08-Balt. 37-CLE. 27...B.21-14 B.41/193 C.23/64 B.17/29/0/236 C.17/33/1/210 B.0 C.1)
(08-BALTIMORE -2' 28-10, Baltimore +1' 37-27...SR: Baltimore 13-7)

NY Giants 27 - TAMPA BAY 16—Tampa Bay rookie HC Raheem Morris
hungry for his first victory. But injuries in his OL are not good vs. the NYG pass
rushers when QB Leftwich (3 ints. last week) has virtually no mobility. N.Y.’s
young WRs Manningham & Steve Smith (10 catches each vs. Dallas) “arriving”
as management had hoped. Bucs’ secondary leaking in new defensive
scheme. And you know the Giant defensive front will be more conscientious vs.
the run after 251-yard allowance in Dallas. G-men an impressive 9-3 recently
as road favorite.
(07-NY Giants +3 24-14 (Playoffs)...SR: NY Giants 11-6)

Washington 22 - DETROIT 10—Despite allowing 72 total points vs. explosive
Saints & upgraded Vikings in first two weeks, NFC North sources say there’s a
lot more coaching going on TY under new Detroit Schwartz than a year ago,
especially on defense. Expect Lions to stop their extended skid before they get
to the all-time NFL losing streak of 26 set by John McKay’s 1976-77 Bucs. But
don’t look for that victory vs. the robust Washington “D,” further fortified by
Albert Haynesworth’s run-stuffing & penetration in the middle. Beleaguered
Skin QB Campbell (just 1 TDP) gets away from the D.C. boo-birds this week.
(08-Wash. 25-DET. 17...W.22-13 W.33/135 D.15/57 W.23/28/0/304 D.21/35/0/217 W.1 D.0)
(08-Washington -7' 25-17...SR: Washington 30-10)

Green Bay 23 - ST. LOUIS 20—Official home debut for Steve Spagnuolo’s
Rams, who appear to be building a respectable defense with the likes of
pressuring DEs Chris Long & Leonard Little; LBs Will Witherspoon, James
Laurinaitis & David Vobora; and hard-hitting S Oshi Atogwe. The offense has
scored only 7 points, but QB Marc Bulger is avoiding interceptions, while G.B.
QB Rodgers (10 sacks!) has been battered so far TY behind the Pack’s
revamped OL. Cards’ Steve Jackson likely to easily out-rush G.B. counterparts.
(07-Green Bay -7' 33-14...SR: St. Louis 46-42-2)

MINNESOTA 27 - San Francisco 10—Official home debut for Brett
Favre with the horn-helmeted horde. And even though he is still getting the
kinks out after missing most of camp, this is a Terrible matchup (with a capital
T) for run-oriented S.F. and its dearth of big plays from its WRs (top WR Isaac
Bruce 4 recs., 35 yards last week). Thanks greatly to the “Williams Wall,” Minny
has led the league in rush defense from 2006-08. 49er Frank Gore rushed for
207 yards last week vs. Seattle, but only 30 on the road in Week One at
Arizona. Adrian Peterson will have an easier time now that Favre is gaining
rapport with underrated receivers.
(07-Minnesota -8' 27-7...SR: San Francisco 22-20-1)

NEW ENGLAND 27 - Atlanta 26—With its defense in transition and QB
position dealing with Tom Brady’s injury/rehab/return, the Pats have only
infrequently surpassed oddsmakers’ expectations, with a 3-14 home spread
mark last 17. Now, top ILB Jerod Mayo (sprained knee), the signal caller on
defense, is out, a loss that Atlanta RB Michael Turner & TE Tony Gonzalez can
exploit. Return of “Matty Ice” Ryan (BC product) to Boston, and you can be sure
that Falcons’ emerging DE Kroy Biermann will be looking up Samuel Adams!
Pats “over” 7 of last 9 overall.
(05-New England +2 31-28...SR: Atlanta 6-5)

SEATTLE 23 - Chicago 17—Can the relentless Chicago DL hassle the aging
and bruised Matt Hasselbeck (check rib injury) enough to overcome the host
while QB Jay Cutler works through his “destruct” mode? Can’t count on the
young QB turning that trick in his first visit to noisy Qwest Field, which has been
a graveyard for many a more careful QB. Reconstructed Chicago OL might
need a few more games before it is abel to free Matt Forte (84 YR TY) on a
consistent basis. Seattle QBs have a new “BFF” in the reliable T.J.
Houshmandzadeh (10 recs. TY).
(07-SEATTLE -5' 30-23...SR: Seattle 7-4)

OVER THE TOTAL New Orleans 35 - BUFFALO 27—In a shootout, it’s
tough to go against in-the-groove Drew Brees (now 9 TDP) without plenty of
good reasons. Can’t find enough of them in Buffalo, although Bills overcame
the depression of their late loss at Foxborough to jump on the rebuilding Bucs
last week, with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt getting T.O. involved (3 for
52 receiving; 1 for 13 rushing). Buffalo will score, but likely not enough vs. the
much-improved, Darren Sharper (3 ints. already)-directed N.O. defense.
Saints “over” 17-6 last 23.
(05-N. ORL -1 19-7 at San Antonio...SR: EVEN 4-4)

SAN DIEGO 24 - Miami 13—Miami does not have a good overall history on its
relatively infrequent trips to the west coast. And it’s hard to see Dolphins
outscoring S.D. in this one now that Chargers’ backup OLmen C Mruczkowski
& G Dombrowski played fairly well vs. the rugged Baltimore front. S.D. seeking
a little revenge for LY’s trip to Florida, limited Dolphin aerial game not the type
to burn the burnable safeties in the Charger secondary. Even if L.T. still limping,
Bolts QB Rivers has enough weapons to prevail.
(08-MIAMI 17-S. Diego 10...M.23-10 M.40/167 S.19/60 M.22/29/0/223 S.13/28/0/142 M.1 S.0)
(08-MIAMI +6' 17-10...SR: Miami 14-12)

Pittsburgh 26 - CINCINNATI 10—Steelers have repeatedly used their
substantial fundamental edges to be the kings of the “Queen City,” winning the
last eight meetings (7-0-1 vs. the spread). Moreover, Cincy’s new OL combo is
likely to spell D-E-A-T-H vs. the Pittsburgh 3-4 zone blitz once again. HBO’s
“Hard Knocks” show revealed the scattered ineptitude and poor communication
that has made the Bengals the “Bungles” over the years. Game has been sold
out thanks in great part to all the Steeler fans who will attend.
(08-Pitt 38-CINCY 10...P.20-16 P.27/125 C.22/84 P.20/31/0/250 C.24/39/0/128 P.0 C.1)
(08-PITT 27-Cincy 10...P.20-11 P.37/121 C.20/43 P.17/30/0/243 C.20/37/1/165 P.1 D.0)
(08-Pittsburgh -9 38-10, PITTSBURGH -11 27-10...SR: Pittsburgh 48-30)

*** Denver 22 - OAKLAND 10— Quick, how many people figured both
Oklahoma and Southern Cal each having losses before Josh McDaniels’
Denver? Even though the Broncs not scoring many style points with Kyle Orton
at the controls, he’s mostly keeping the clock and chains moving with a
succession of short, low-risk pass routes, and now-healthy rookie RB
Knowshon Moreno (17-75 last week) is providing a little pop. Insiders
impressed with Mike Nolan’s new 3-4 defense that’s gaining confidence and not
blowing assignments like LY. If Raiders chalk, note 0-7 mark last 7 in role;
Denver “under” 10-4 last 14.
(08-Denver 41-OAK. 14...D.24-15 O.31/150 D.34/142 D.16/25/0/299 O.17/26/0/167 D.0 O.1)
(08-Oak. 31-DENVER 10...D.23-18 O.41/158 D.28/115 D.16/37/1/204 O.11/12/0/160 O.0 D.1)
(08-Denver -3 41-14, Oakland +8' 31-10...SR: Oakland 56-41-2)

*ARIZONA 30 - Indianapolis 26—Thirty-eight-year-old Kurt Warner was
semi-magnificent in hitting 24 of 26 passes on the road last week at
Jacksonville, with 17 of the completions going to WR super-trio Fitzgerald,
Boldin & Breaston. RB Beanie Wells also got into the picture with 7 for 44
rushing, but will be sleeping with a football all week after two fumbles. After
blowing their home opener vs. S.F., Cards eager to bring supreme effort vs. former
Super Bowl champ Indy, trying to trade points with host despite changes in its OL
and receiver corps. Arizona 14-5 SU home L2+Ys; over 11 of 13. TV—NBC
(05-INDIANAPOLIS -7 17-13...SR: Indianapolis 7-6)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
*DALLAS 31 - Carolina 19—Jake Delhomme (308 YP, only 1 int.) got back on
track to a degree last week in Atlanta, but the defense could not handle Matt
Ryan (21 of 27) and the Panthers trailed virtually wire to wire. However,
Cowboys—with 251 YR vs. the Giants—showed they can control games, if only
Tony Romo can avoid careless throws. Would rather trust Romo than
Delhomme at this stage, and Dallas appears to have a better overall supporting
cast if the impressive Cowboy RBs outduel the opposing Wlliams-Stewart
combo. Panthers 8-1 “over” last 9. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Dallas -10' 20-13...SR: Dallas 7-3)

Sunshine Forecast

Thursday, September 24, 2009
Mississippi (-3½) at South Carolina
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Mississippi 32 South Carolina 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Mississippi 31 South Carolina 14

Friday, September 25, 2009
Missouri (-7) at Nevada-Reno
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Missouri 41 Nevada-Reno 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Missouri 47 Nevada-Reno 29

Saturday, September 26, 2009
Wake Forest (-2½) at Boston College
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Boston College 22 Wake Forest 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 17 Wake Forest 12

Illinois (+14) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Ohio State 31 Illinois 17 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 30 Illinois 16

Minnesota (+1½) at Northwestern
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Northwestern 26 Minnesota 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northwestern 27 Minnesota 24

Indiana (+19½) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Michigan 31 Indiana 15 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indiana 23 Michigan 19
Indiana (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game [Teams playing 4th straight home game ]
Go against Michigan ( Won previous three games, Previous three games against FBS opponents, 9-22, 29.0% )

Buffalo (+2½) at Temple
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Buffalo 25 Temple 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo 23 Temple 20
Michigan State (+2½) at Wisconsin
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Wisconsin 32 Michigan State 31 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 40 Wisconsin 33
Michigan State (1 star)

Texas Christian (+3) at Clemson
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas Christian 26 Clemson 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 24 Clemson 17

Rutgers (-3) at Maryland
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Rutgers 35 Maryland 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 39 Maryland 28

Boise State (-16) at Bowling Green
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Boise State 37 Bowling Green 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boise State 40 Bowling Green 21

Ohio (+20½) at Tennessee
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Tennessee 31 Ohio 10 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 26 Ohio 6

U-C-F (+10) at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
East Carolina 31 U-C-F 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 31 U-C-F 20

Fresno State (+14½) at Cincinnati
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Cincinnati 39 Fresno State 21 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 44 Fresno State 25

Akron (+17) at Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Central Michigan 26 Akron 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 24 Akron 17

Louisiana State (-14) at Mississippi State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Louisiana State 26 Mississippi State 17 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 23 Mississippi State 13
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by favorite at Mississippi State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination on the road by Louisiana State, 4-0, 100.0% )

Army (+10½) at Iowa State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Iowa State 28 Army 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa State 28 Army 24

Marshall (+3½) at Memphis
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Memphis 30 Marshall 21 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Memphis 30 Marshall 21

U-A-B (+15) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas A+M 36 U-A-B 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas A+M 40 U-A-B 28

Southern Miss (+13½) at Kansas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kansas 33 Southern Miss 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas 34 Southern Miss 24

San Diego State (+16½) at Air Force
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Air Force 41 San Diego State 11 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Air Force 42 San Diego State 11

Vanderbilt (-8) at Rice
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Vanderbilt 29 Rice 28 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Vanderbilt 32 Rice 31

Ball State (+30½) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Auburn 33 Ball State 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 27 Ball State 24
Ball State (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game [Teams playing 4th straight home game ]
Go against Auburn ( Won previous three games, Previous three games against FBS opponents, 9-22, 29.0% )

Nevada-Las Vegas (-5½) at Wyoming
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Nevada-Las Vegas 30 Wyoming 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Las Vegas 30 Wyoming 22

Arkansas (+15½) at Alabama
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Alabama 40 Arkansas 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Alabama 34 Arkansas 27
Arkansas (1 star)

Florida (-22½) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida 41 Kentucky 12 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 41 Kentucky 12

Arizona State (+12) at Georgia
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Georgia 29 Arizona State 26 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 31 Arizona State 28

California (-7) at Oregon
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
California 31 Oregon 30 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 37 Oregon 35

South Florida (+14) at Florida State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida State 25 South Florida 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 23 South Florida 21

North Carolina (+2½) at Georgia Tech
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
North Carolina 24 Georgia Tech 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
North Carolina 20 Georgia Tech 15

Idaho (+16) at Northern Illinois
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Northern Illinois 35 Idaho 12 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northern Illinois 34 Idaho 10

Colorado State (+14½) at Brigham Young
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Brigham Young 35 Colorado State 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Brigham Young 38 Colorado State 24

Pittsburgh (Pk) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh 29 No Carolina State 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 28 No Carolina State 23

Washington (+7) at Stanford
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Stanford 34 Washington 18 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Stanford 34 Washington 19

Miami-Ohio (+9) at Kent State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kent State 29 Miami-Ohio 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kent State 26 Miami-Ohio 13
Historical trend: Take Miami-Ohio ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Louisville (+11½) at Utah
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Utah 37 Louisville 17 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 39 Louisville 19
Miami-Florida (-1½) at Virginia Tech
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Virginia Tech 26 Miami-Florida 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 24 Miami-Florida 23
Historical trend: Take Virginia Tech ( Domination by Virginia Tech, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Virginia Tech ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Notre Dame (-7½) at Purdue
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Notre Dame 29 Purdue 27 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Notre Dame 28 Purdue 27

UTEP (+34) at Texas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas 47 UTEP 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 52 UTEP 21

Iowa (+10) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Penn State 27 Iowa 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 23 Penn State 18
Iowa (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game [Teams playing 4th straight home game ]
Go against Penn State ( Won previous three games, Previous three games against FBS opponents, 9-22, 29.0% )

Texas Tech (+1) at Houston
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas Tech 38 Houston 32 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 44 Houston 38

New Mexico State (+9½) at New Mexico
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
New Mexico 33 New Mexico State 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 33 New Mexico State 19

Washington State (+43) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Southern Cal 50 Washington State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 53 Washington State 0

Arizona (-2½) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Oregon State 30 Arizona 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon State 31 Arizona 24
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by Oregon State, 7-1, 87.5% )

UL-Monroe (+5) at Florida Atlantic
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida Atlantic 35 UL-Monroe 31 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Atlantic 41 UL-Monroe 37
Historical trend: Take UL-Monroe ( Domination by underdog, 5-0, 100.0% )

UL-Lafayette (+26½) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Nebraska 43 UL-Lafayette 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 46 UL-Lafayette 19

Western Kentucky (+27½) at Navy
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Navy 37 Western Kentucky 8 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Navy 34 Western Kentucky 6

Troy (+1) at Arkansas State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Arkansas State 34 Troy 28 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas State 40 Troy 34

Middle Tennessee (-7½) at North Texas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Middle Tennessee 36 North Texas 28 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Middle Tennessee 41 North Texas 34

Toledo (Pk) at Florida Intl
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida Intl 29 Toledo 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Intl 27 Toledo 17