LOGICAL APPROACH
Two weeks into the 2009 season and already there are teams that have been pleasant surprises and major disappointments. Of course it's still early but with a short 16 game schedule, each game is huge in terms of a team's chances of making the Playoffs.
The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-1 but it easily could have been an 0-2 start as they needed overtime to defeat Tennessee in their opener before giving up a late lead in Chicago and ultimately losing on a last second FG 17-14. Runner up Arizona also is 1-1. After losing to what appears to be a very much improved San Francisco, the Cardinals responded in the way you like to see a good team respond, by traveling across country and routing Jacksonville in a game not as close as the 31-17 score.
Nine teams have started 2-0. Of this group only Atlanta, Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans were favored in both of their games. Baltimore, Denver, the New York Giants and San Francisco have each won a game when favored but have also pulled off an upset with an outright win as an underdog. The New York Jets earned both of their wins as underdogs at Houston and at home against New England.
9 teams have started 0-2. Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, St Louis and Tampa Bay each were expected to start with two losses, being underdogs in both games. But Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tennessee have each lost once when favored. Of concern for these teams is that those losses occurred at home. Of this group Carolina, Miami and Tennessee each made the Playoffs last season.
An 0-2 start has historically been a major obstacle to overcome in making the Playoffs. An 0-3 start rarely produces a Playoff team, making for 'critical' week 3 games for the Panthers, Dolphins and Titans. Of the 3 teams that made the Playoffs in 2007 but started 0-2 in 2008 only San Diego was able to overcome that start to make the 2008 Playoffs. But the Chargers did so with an 8-8 record and benefitted from Denver's late season collapse. Both Jacksonville and Seattle were unable to overcome their 0-2 start last season. One other team that started 0-2 last season - Minnesota - did turn things around and made the Playoffs.
Last week we presented some data on 'key' margins of victory and how often games involving pointspreads around those key numbers actually fell on the key numbers. Those results can be used to determine whether it makes sense to 'buy' an extra half point on or off of those key numbers (i.e. laying 2 ½ instead of 3 or getting 3 ½ instead of 3). The answer can be found by looking at that data.
When you 'buy' that extra half point you must generally lay 6 to 5 (12-10) instead of the usual 11-10. At 11-10 you must hit 52.4% winners to break even. At 6-5 that rises to 54.6%. Recall that 27 seasons of history shows that about 9.24% of all games with pointspreads of 2 ½, 3 or 3 ½ end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. Thus in about 10 of 100 games there will be a benefit to buying the extra half point and turning a loss into a push or a push into a win. Let's examine what happens over those 100 bets.
90 of the bets remain unaffected. Thus laying 6-5 instead of 11-10 will cost you an extra $900 in losses based on laying $120 to win $100 instead of laying $110 to win $100. But that's only if you LOSE all of those 90 bets! More likely you'll win at least half of those games so the added losses are closer to about $450 in games that are unaffected by the buying of the extra half point.
Let's now look at the other 10 bets that are affected. If those 10 bets would have been losses but are now pushes, you will have saved $1100 in losses by laying the extra juice. (At 11-10 you would have laid $1100 to win $1000 but would have lost whereas at 6-5 you would have laid $1,200 and pushed). If those 10 bets would have pushed at 11-10 they would win by laying 6-5. Thus you would gain an extra $1000 in winnings by laying the 6-5. More likely, the 10 bets would have involved changing some losses to pushes and some pushes to wins. The net impact of the 10 transformed wagers would range between $1000 and $1100.
Thus in analyzing the impact of buying on or off of '3' out of 100 wagers we would have sacrificed the added 'vig' on 90 of the wagers. Assuming we'd go 45-45 on those plays our added cost of buying the extra half point would be $450. On the 10 wagers that are impacted the assumption is that without the extra half point we'd have 5 pushes and 5 losses (a net loss of $550) that would be converted into 5 pushes and 5 winners with the extra half point (a net win of $500), for a net gain of $1050. Taken together the gain of $1050 on the 10 affected wagers is offset by the $450 additional losses on the 90 unaffected wagers for a net benefit of $600 gained by buying onto or off of the number '3' in the NFL.
We can therefore conclude that buying the extra half point onto or off of 3 gives you a noticeable edge over not buying the half point and laying the standard 11 to 10. Of the other 8 'key' numbers presented in our study (1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 and 17) the percentage of favorites winning by exactly that margin when the line was within a half point of that number ranged from 1.23% to 6.06%.
In next week's issue we shall debut our weekly Spreadsheet that provides unique statistical information that will enhance the analyses presented in the Newsletter. Sometimes numbers can give a much clearer indication of strengths and weakness and how teams match up than can commentary. We know you will find the data to be very useful in doing your own evaluation of the games.
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: STANFORD - 7 over Washington - Washington's improvement was evident in their 31-23 opening game loss to LSU. The improvement translated into results the next week when the Huskies snapped their 15 game losing streak defeating Idaho. And then it all came together with last week's 16-13 upset of powerful USC. Washington was well prepared for that game with so much of their coaching staff on both sides of the ball former USC staffers. Now they must take to the road for the first time and they are in a natural letdown spot. They also don't have those huge familiarity edges they enjoyed last week. Stanford is a well coached program on the rise. They have a pair of one sided home wins sandwiched around a road loss across the country at Wake Forest. They are further ahead of UW in rebuilding and have fared well as a favorite, playing the role of bully when given the chance. Stanford wins 30-13.
Other Featured College Selections
BOSTON COLLEGE + 1 ½ over Wake Forest - It can't get any uglier for BC than last week's "effort" in a loss to Clemson with just 5 first downs and 54 yards of total offense. The defense actually fared well, holding the Tigers to just 253 yards of offense. Defense has been their strength in the early going and in Wake Forest they face an offense that has struggled more than expected. This is also Wake's first road season and their ACC opener. Wake had won 3 of the first 4 meetings since BC joined the ACC in 2003 but BC has won each of the past 2 seasons. They will be highly motivated to atone for last week's abysmal effort and they have the defense to do it in what should be a low scoring game. Wake Forest has performed better as a favorite in recent seasons but still under 40% ATS under current coach Grobe. BC is in the rare role of a home dog but is 2-0 both S/U and ATS in their only two previous spots as such since 2006. Boston College wins 23-17.
Minnesota + 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - Minnesota was 7-1 and seeking to avenge a 49-48 loss from the season before when they hosted Northwestern in 2008. Favored by a TD the Gophers were upset 24-17 by the Wildcats and Minny did not win another game last season. Now they play with double revenge and again arguably have the better talent. Both teams have played at Syracuse with Minnesota winning by a FG in OT and Northwestern losing by a FG on the final play of regulation. Both teams had trouble running the ball against the Orange but both passing attacks were effective. Overall Minnesota had the better offensive showing against Syracuse while Minny had the superior defensive stats. Minnesota played a pair of much better foes (Air Force and Cal) in their other two games than has Northwestern (Towson State and Eastern Michigan). Historically the road team has covered 11 of the last 12 in the series. Minnesota wins 24-20.
ARKANSAS STATE - 1 over Troy - Both teams figure to contend for Sun Belt honors as they meet for the sixth time as conference foes. ASU won the first 3 meetings but Troy has won each of the past 2 seasons. Each team has lost to big name foes this season with Troy getting trounced at Florida and Arky State faring slightly better in a loss at Nebraska. This is Troy's third road game of the season as they got their only win to date last week at home against UAB. ASU is 1-1 with a blowout win over a very weak FCS/I-AA team and had last week off, giving them an edge in preparation for this conference opener. ASU has had a very strong home field advantage in conference play, winning 12 of their last 14. Their most recent conference home loss was to Troy in 2007. The talent level is fairly even but ASU has better balance on offense and return a more experienced defense. ASU's rest is a solid edge against road weary Troy. Arkansas State wins 27-20.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Mississippi - 3 over SOUTH CAROLINA [1]
OHIO STATE - 14 over Illinois
MICHIGAN STATE + 3 over Wisconsin
Tcu + 3 over CLEMSON
TENNESSEE - 21 over Ohio
MEMPHIS - 3 over Marshall
San Diego State + 16 over AIR FORCE
RICE + 8 over Vanderbilt
Florida - 21 ½ over KENTUCKY
Arizona State + 12 ½ over GEORGIA
OREGON + 7 over California
GEORGIA TECH - 2 ½ over North Carolina
BYU - 15 over Colorado State
Pittsburgh + 1 ½ over NORTH CAROLINA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH + 2 ½ over Miami Fla
PURDUE + 7 over Notre Dame
Utep + 36 over TEXAS
Iowa + 10 over PENN STATE
OREGON STATE - 2 over Arizona
NEBRASKA - 26 over UL Lafayette
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 4 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
NEVADA + 7 ½ over Missouri [2]
Indiana + 21 over MICHIGAN
TEMPLE - 2 ½ over Buffalo
Rutgers - 2 ½ over MARYLAND
BOWLING GREEN + 17 over Boise State
Central Florida + 11 over EAST CAROLINA
CINCINNATI - 16 over Fresno State
Akron + 16 ½ over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Lsu - 13 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Army + 10 over IOWA STATE
Uab + 15 over TEXAS A&M
KANSAS - 13 ½ over Southern Miss
Ball State + 32 over AUBURN
WYOMING + 5 ½ over Unlv
Arkansas + 15 over ALABAMA
South Florida + 14 ½ over FLORIDA STATE
Idaho + 16 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Miami Ohio + 8 ½ over KENT STATE
UTAH - 12 ½ over Louisville
Texas Tech + 1 over HOUSTON
NEW MEXICO - 10 over New Mexico State
USC - 45 over Washington State
NAVY - 28 ½ over Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee - 6 ½ over NORTH TEXAS
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND - 4 ½ over Atlanta - Atlanta steps up in class and plays their first road game of the season after defeating Miami and Carolina at home. The Pats are still an elite team despite their 1-1 start which came against a pair of improved Division rivals. The situation is ripe for a highly motivated effort from the Pats who have talent and experience edges. QB Tom Brady has shown some rust but he should become more comfortable and effective with each game. Atlanta is in a favorable schedule spot with a Bye next week so they will be well prepared for New England. But look for the Pats th have made several adjustments on both sides of the ball, especially on defense where coach Belichick had an entire offseason to break down film from Falcon QB Ryan's fine rookie season. Belichick is a master of identifying tendencies and disguising defenses to expose them. That will be key here. New England wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
Tennessee + 2 ½ over N Y JETS - After going 13-3 last season the Titans have started 0-2 with each loss by a FG. The Jets have surprised many with their 2-0 start including that very satisfying win over Division rival New England. A bit of a letdown for a young QB and first year coach would not be surprising. New coach Rex Ryan has had an immediate impact both with the culture within the organization and the play on the field, especially their attacking and aggressive defense. Still Titans coach Fisher has been around long enough to take advantage of vulnerabilities such a defense allows. Despite last week's shootout with Houston, the Titans still have a fundamentally solid defense and they play here with a great sense of urgency. They also recall a 34-13 home loss last year to the Jets - the Titans' first loss after a 10-0 start. Tennessee wins 24-13.
ARIZONA - 2 over Indianapolis -- Scheduling dynamics work against Indianapolis who played Monday night in Miami and now travel cross country to play in the heat of the desert. The Indy defense was on the field for 45 minutes in their 27-23 win and figure to wear down in the second half. That's why Arizona went from a 1 point dog to a small favorite and probably close as a FG choice. Arizona rebounded from an opening loss to improved San Francisco with an impressive effort in easily winning at Jacksonville. The Cards had success running the football against the Jaguars but QB Warner was outstanding in picking apart the defense. It''s tough to fare well in back to back road games, especially at opposite ends of the country. Indy QB Manning will have some success against an improved Arizona defense but the Cards have the better overall receiving corp and in what should be a shootout their offense wears down Indy's defense. Arizona wins 34-27.
Carolina + 9 ½ over DALLAS (Monday) - This is a critical early season game for 0-2 Carolina. Dallas' debut in their new digs resulted in a disappointing loss as the Giants rallied for a final drive that led to the winning FG. The Cowboys clearly have the better talent but Carolina has a clear edge in coaching with John Fox having a better grasp of what's taking place on the field than does Dallas' Wade Phillips. That makes getting nearly double digits an attractive take for a team that can run the ball. The Panthers have lost all 6 meetings with Dallas this decade but 5 of them have been by a TD or less. And at 0-2 a repeat of their Playoff appearance from last season is in jeopardy so expect an all out effort against a team that repeatedly shows an inability to close out games. Carolina QB Delhomme had a much better effort against Atlanta than in the opener vs Atlanta providing a much needed confidence boost. Dallas wins but by just 27-23.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Jacksonville + 4 over HOUSTON
ST LOUIS + 6 ½ over Green Bay
San Francisco + 7 over MINNESOTA
SEATTLE + 2 over Chicago
BUFFALO + 6 over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 over Denver
The Rest (Leans)
PHILADELPHIA - 9 ½ over Kansas City
BALTIMORE - 13 ½ over Cleveland
N Y Giants - 6 ½ over TAMPA BAY
Washington - 6 ½ over DETROIT
SAN DIEGO - 6 over Miami
CINCINNATI + 4 ½ over Pittsburgh
Best of the NFL Totals
Jacksonville/Houston OVER 46 ½
Washington/Detroit UNDER 38 ½
Green Bay/St Louis OVER 41
San Francisco/Minnesota UNDER 40
New Orleans/Buffalo OVER 52 ½
Oakland/Denver UNDER 37 ½
Indianapolis/Arizona OVER 48
Carolina/Dallas OVER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Minnesota
Michigan State
OREGON RICE
Pro:
Tennessee
Jacksonville
BUFFALO
Cincinnati