Newsletters September 16 - 20

NELLY

RATING 5 MISSOURI (-16) over San Diego State
RATING 4 TULSA (+7) over Oklahoma State
RATING 3 GEORGIA (-21⁄2) over Arkansas
RATING 2 BOWLING GREEN (+21⁄2) over Marshall
RATING 2 PENN STATE (-211⁄2) over Kent State
RATING 1 VANDERBILT (+13) over Mississippi
RATING 1 VIRGINIA TECH (-171⁄2) over East Carolina

RATING 5 MINNESOTA (-51⁄2) over Miami
RATING 4 PITTSBURGH (+6) over Tennessee
RATING 3 SEATTLE (+3) over Denver
RATING 2 GREEN BAY (-131⁄2) over Buffalo
RATING 1 ARIZONA (+7) over Atlanta

CKO

11* VIRGINIA TECH
Now that Virginia Tech has started the season an unexpected 0-2, the Hokies can either stay down in the dumps or get angry. We’re predicting the latter vs. a rebuilding East Carolina team taking to the road for the first time this season after edging Tulsa 51-49 on a Hail Mary and then routing defenseless Memphis 49-27. The Pirates’ fun ends this week in Blacksburg, where offensively and defensively superior VT should strike early and often. ECU, rebuilding its defensive front, has given up 992 yards in its first two games, which would seem to make the Pirates the perfect foil for the Hokies’ vaunted ground assault. New ECU QB Dominique Davis (once at B.C.) has impressed so far. But he’ll be under far more pass rush pressure than he’s seen so far in friendly Greenville. Prideful VT, deep & speedy in the backfield, jumps out early and doesn’t let up.

10* CALIFORNIA
Points have come easily for both of these teams, but for different reasons. Both have quality offensive weapons. Cal QB Kevin Riley is 3rd in passing efficiency, and RB Shane Vereen has already scored 6 TDs (5th in scoring). Nevada counters with QB Colin Kaepernick, a long-striding, 6-6 run-pass combo package who’s generated 10,750 yards of total offense in his career. What the Bears have that gives them an edge over the Wolf Pack is a pedigree and a defense. Cal’s defense is ranked No. 1 in the country, and the Bears have waded through Pac-10 schedules to seven straight bowl appearances. Nevada has also played some bowl games recently, but they haven’t stepped up in class well at all. Chris Ault’s Wolf Pack has dropped 6 of last 7 facing BCS Conference opponents, and is just 2-9 last 11 against non-WAC foes not from Las Vegas (3-0 against the Rebels). Bears should present problems for Ault’s “Pistol,” and Nevada yielded 32 ppg the last 3 years

10* KENTUCKY
MAC scouts tell us the revamped Akron defense poorly adjusting to the supposedly more aggressive 4-3 (played 3-3-5 LY) installed by 1st-year d.c. Kurt Mallory (former Illinois d.c.), as the Zips have allowed a whopping 822 total yds. vs.Syracuse & FCS Gardner-Webb—both of which are breaking in new QBs this year. Hence, now that UK’s accurate, deep-throwing sr. QB Hartline has developed trust with blossoming group of tall WRs to take pressure off versatile, go- to Cobb (255 all-purpose yds. vs. Western Kentucky!), the undersized Akron CBs (5-9 & 5-8) are in for another very long afternoon. And with the Cats’ skillful backup QB duo of Newton (former starter) & promising RS frosh Mossakowski (HC Joker Phillips says both still competing for No. 2 job) eager to shine when given a shot, disciplined UK (no TOs so Far) should destroy another lower-division MAC opponent (Wildcats won last two by combined 98-20 margin) lacking playmakers on the offensive end (mere 166 yds. in 29-3 home loss vs. Syracuse).

10* UNLV
Although UNLV displayed decent early foot against accomplished stakes winners Wisconsin & Utah, the Rebels finished down the track against both. But dropping down to the “allowance” level this week at the Kibbie Dome should work better for first-year HC Bobby Hauck’s troops. UNLV isn’t at a manpower disadvantage vs. Idaho, which should allow Rebel “O” to establish a welcome infantry component that was absent vs. top-shelf opponents the past two weeks. And if aided by a credible ground diversion, MWC sources believe QBs Clayton or Clausen should finally be able to sell play-action and benefit from a bit more time to scan the field from the pocket. WAC sources expect some dropoff from ‘09 at Idaho (1-4 as chalk LY), especially with a rebuilt OL that is unlikely to protect sr. QB Enderle (5 picks last week at Nebraska) as well as LY’s vet forward wall, and a still-suspect “D” lacking impact performers.

10* TENNESSEE
LT Max Starks and NT Casey Hampton are the latest Steelers to be sidelined, joining RT Willie Colon and QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich. Veteran center Justin Hartwig was beaten out by promising No. 1 pick Maurkice Pouncey. That means there will be three backups/rookies starting in the Pittsburgh OL this Sunday at raucous LP Field, where opposing linemen had more false starts than any other stadium LY! And this doesn’t even consider the Tennessee offense, which has been rejuvenated since the return to the lineup LY of the more-mature Vince Young, who is now more careful with the ball and able to spot secondary receivers. The Titan defense is one of the more aggressive in the league, so inexperienced QB Dennis Dixon (only his third start) will have his hands full, especially if the runs of the marvelous Chris Johnson put Pittsburgh in an early hole.

NINE-RATED GAMES: VANDERBILT (+13) at Mississippi—Vandy a tough underdog on the road; Ole Miss still trying to get its loose ends together...SMU (-22) vs. Washington State—Mustangs improved both offensively and defensively over the SMU team that blew a 17-0 lead and lost in OT last season in Pullman...MISSISSIPPI STATE (+81⁄2) at Lsu—Bulldog program ascending; how come LSU only 2-18 vs. spread last 20 hosting SEC foes?...UTAH (-23) at New Mexico—Can the Lobos (128 points allowed in first two games) be trusted vs. any high-quality foe?...ARKANSAS STATE (-3) vs. Louisiana-Monroe—Red Wolves have a poor pointspread record recently, but they’ve finally reached their home opener TY after scoring 25 ppg in two road losses.

TOTALS: UNDER (36) in the Tampa Bay-Carolina Game—Both teams good on defense; shaky at QB...UNDER (44) in the Houston-Washington Game— Houston loves its new clock-eating ground game; Washington offense still developing; good-friend coaches Shanahan & Kubiak know each other’s favorite plays!

GOLDSHEET

KEY RELEASES

ALABAMA by 35 over Duke
RICE by 4 over Northwestern
UTAH STATE by 4 over Fresno State
TROY by 15 over Uab

DALLAS by 21 over Chicago
DENVER by 14 over Seattle
Miami-Minnesota UNDER

North Coast Power Plays

4'* Oklahoma, Florida St.
4* Illinois, Ohio St., Oregon St., Arizona St., North Texas
3* Maryland, Kansas St., Ball St., TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame, Arizona, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Miss.St., Utah
2* San Diego St., W. Michigan, Arkansas St.
1* Duke, Indiana, Auburn,Texas A&M

4* Raiders, Falcons
3* Redskins, Vikings over
2* Cowboys

Playbook

5* Virginia Tech
4* Stanford
3* Oklahoma
Upset of the Week Washington

5* Arizona, under Bears/Dal
4* Philadelphia, over Sea/Den
3* Ravens, under Buff/GBP

Awesome Angle of the Week 21-4-1 ATS since 1980 Memphis, New Mexico, UAB

Pointwise

5* Nevada, Vandy
4* Utah St., Maryland
3* Oregon St.
2* SMU
1* UTEP, Boise

5* Denver, Philly
4* Tennessee
3* GBP
2* Minnesota

Winning Points

Best Miss St., Cent. Fla.
Preferred Colorado, Navy, Florida, North Texas

Best Tennessee, Indy
Preferred Washington, Denver

under Vikes, under Bucs, under Raiders

Playbook

5* Best Bet Arizona
4* Best Bet Eagles
3* Best Bet Ravens

Totals

5* Best Bet Cowboys Under
4* Best Bet Denver Over
3* Best Bet Packers Under

The Edge

5* Stanford
3* Clemson
3* Notre Dame

5* Baltimore
3* Atlanta
3* Indy

Power Sweep

4★Excellent
3★Very Good
2★Good

KEY SELECTIONS

4* New England (+) over NY JETS - The Jets are off what promises to be a very physical MNF game vs BAL and those results are unknown. LY the Jets shut down NE in the 1st meeting 19-9 as a 3 pt HD holding Brady to 216 yds (49%) with an int as he deftly threw the ball away instead of taking a sack. In the 2nd meeting after getting a good look at the Jets scheme and with a healthy Welker, Brady shredded the Jets for 310 yds (68%) with a TD in a 31-14 win as a 10’ pt HF. Not only do the Patriots have the benefit of extra rest they just faced a defense that utilizes a lot of Ravens/Jets principles with the Bengals. Brady was very efficient with 258 yds (71%) 3-0 while their defense held Benson to 43 yds (2.9). CIN’s 1H drives ended in 3 punts, 2 TO’s, a FG and a 51 yd Hail Mary. Sanchez is still a young QB and will have a huge amount of pressure to cope with both by the fans and by Belichick who is his own DC now. NE knows that the Jets are a serious division rival and have been stockpiling all the clippings of Hard Knocks and other related materials. Look for them to make a statement here about who still runs the division. FORECAST: New England 20 (+) NY JETS 14

3* TENNESSEE over Pittsburgh - PIT fell to 1-4 ATS vs TEN as while they beat them 13-10 in OT LY they were a 6.5 pt HF in LY’s season opener. PIT was outrushed 86 (3.4) to 36 (1.6) and are without the 2 heros of the game with Roethlisberger (363 yds 76% 1-2) and WR Holmes (9 rec 14.6). PIT kept the game straightforward for Dixon LW and he was efficient (236 yds 69% 0-1). PIT’s defense was intense as they held ATL to 116 yds in the 1H with just 58 yds rushing (2.3) in the entire game. The win was costly as they will be without LT Starks (ankle sprain) and NT Hampton (hamstring) here. Now they have to go on the road vs a TEN team that also prides itself on physical play. TEN beat an OAK team LW that was adjusting to a new QB and OC, holding them to 38 yds passing in the 1H. While Chris Johnson had142 yds (5.3) Young was very sharp with 184 total yards. TEN final stats were misleading as they had a 264-106 HT edge and a 24-6 lead. TEN has the advantage of being home for a 2nd straight wk again facing a run oriented team with a DL that had 4 sacks and 4 qbh LW. PIT 14 FD’s LW were enough to escape at home vs ATL but without being able to establish long drives it’ll be a long game vs the Titans defense. Our injury system says to play on a team the first game after a major loss but then play against them. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 Pittsburgh 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* ATLANTA over Arizona - Counting the playoffs this is the 4th meeting in 5 years (ATL 2-1 ATS) with ARZ beating ATL 30-24 (Even) at home in the 2008 playoffs. The Cardinals shut down RB Turner (42 yds 2.3) while bringing relentless pressure on then rookie Ryan (199 yds 65% 2-2). ATL was in a tough situation LW vs a veteran laded PIT team rallying together in their home opener. ATL couldn’t get any balance on offense (25/44 rush/pass) and RB Turner was held to just 42 yds (2.2) The situation is now in favor of ATL at home vs an ARZ team on the road for the 2nd straight week that has had a lot of changeover on both sides of the ball. ATL is one of the better home teams avg 26.1 ppg and 357 ypg (11-5 ATS) under HC Smith the L2Y as they are built for speed. ARZ runs a Steeler style 3-4 defense which will help Ryan (252 yds 61% 0-1) in his presnap reads here. ARZ only had a 53 yd edge vs the woeful Rams, fumbled the ball 7 times with 2 of the 4 losses coming inside the STL 25. We’ll side with the more consistent ATL team at home as we are very aware of QB Anderson’s issues. FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 Arizona 20

2* Jacksonville (+) over SAN DIEGO - We don’t mind making a Jaguar call without having seen SD’s Monday night game. JAX took care of business covering vs DEN despite getting outgained 363-299. The Jag’s did what they do best led by efficient QB David Garrard (170, 76%, 3-0) and RB Jones-Drew (98, 4.3). They played turnover-free and had only 5 penalties and that is exactly what you want when backing a road underdog. SD starts this year w/o LY’s leading RB (L.T.), leading WR (Jackson) and top OL (McNeil). The Chargers are also on a short week, off a div road game, have another road game on deck and finished their L/8 games LY allowing 5.0 ypc rushing. The Chargers success has come from playing in the NFL’s weakest division. This is a great spot to play to grab some value as the Ugly Dog Play (25-16-1 61%). FORECAST: Jacksonville 16 (+) SAN DIEGO 17

CLEVELAND 23 Kansas City 16 - Both coaching staffs are loaded with Bill Belichick disciples and after taking a year off Romeo Crennel will get to face his former team. KC is primed for a huge letdown here as they are off their 1st MNF HG since Nov-2004 and now have to travel. CLE led from the first score through mid-4Q vs TB but allowed a 47/6pl TD drive and failed their last 3 drives. CLE beat KC 41-34 as a 2 pt AD LY as CLE rushed for 351 yds (7.2), Cribbs had KR TD’s of 100 and 103 yds and KC WR’s dropped 9 passes. While both teams have a lot of similarities, KC was expected to have 7 rookies or 2nd year players in the starting lineup vs SD and are still transitioning to the 3-4 which CLE has been in since 2005. Delhomme (227, 54%, 1-2) did a nice job spreading the ball as 10 different rec’s caught passes inc 6 that had 4+ rec’s. The OL also kept him clean allowing only 2 qbh and no sacks. The Browns finished LY covering 4 straight home games by 10 ppg and get another here for the hometown faithful.

GREEN BAY 31 Buffalo 10 - The Bills big concerns of poor OL play and lack of a pass rush were realized LW vs MIA which only had 5 returning defensive starters from 2009 playing. BUF only had 166 yds offense in the 1H with Edwards managing a meager 4.1 ypa in the game. The Bills struggled away LY(254 ypg and 15.1 ppg) and now face LY’s #2 defense which held PHI to 49 1H yards. While BUF does have a good secondary they are adjusting to a new 3-4 system and that is a huge concern vs a GB OL that returned all 5 starters from a unit that has allowed 10 sacks over L8 regular season games. We’re sure the Packers would admit to letting up as after they led 20-3 LW the offense had a total of 14 plays in four 4Q drives. GB not only went 3-0 LY as a DD fav but won those games by an avg score of 36-7. While having A MNF div game on deck may seem like a distraction GB showed LY that they’ll stay focused as they were -6.5 at STL with a MNF game at MIN on deck and won 36-17.

Baltimore 20 CINCINNATI 17 - CIN improved to 8-3 SU and ATS vs BAL after sweeping both games LY. While Palmer only avg’d 248 ypg (59%) with a 2-1 ratio, Benson avg’d 119 ypg (3.9) with only MIN RB Peterson having more success on the ground LY (143 yds 6.5). Overall CIN had a 386-236 yd edge while Flacco was intercepted a combined 4 times. CIN’s offense got off to a slow start and on their 1st play inside NE territory (6:04 left 1H), Palmer was int’d for a 59 yd TD return. The Bengals finished with a 428-376 yd edge with Owens and Ochocinco combining for 19 rec’s (11.1 ypc) while RB Benson was held to just 43 yds (2.9) though CIN did abandon the run due to falling behind. BAL is of course off the opening MNF game vs the Jets and in the last 2 seasons they’ve gone 1-2 SU/ATS in that role. Flacco has handled himself well away vs division opp’s leading the Ravens to a 4-1-1 ATS mark. The schedule makers have done BAL no favors as they are 1 of only 4 teams to be playing B2B road games to open the season and the only to face a div foe, plus its on a short week.

Philadelphia at DETROIT - While Kevin Kolb was to make his 1st NFL road start but the plans have changed after getting KO’d LW. PHI is 7-3 ATS as non-div AF and will now be under the direction of Michael VIck. Vick (175, 67%, 1-0) led a valiant comeback effort as he had 103 yds rush (9.4) but will now be the focus of the game plan. DET is off an incredibly misleading ATS win vs CHI as they were outgained 340-98 with 2:00 left in the 3Q when Cutler committed his 4th TO of the game. DET finished with just 168 yds and the anemic rush game totaled 20 yds (1.0). DET is also likely to be without QB Stafford (throwing shoulder) and #2 QB Hill finished with 88 yds (47%, 0-1). Tough spot for both teams to recoup with backups and we’ll pass on this one here and look at it further this week.

DALLAS 24 Chicago 17 - The Cowboys are off LW’s SNF game vs WAS (9-2-1 ATS at home afterwards) and those results are unavailable. CHI was situationaly in a very strong spot LW at home vs a DET defense which had given up the most yardage and points in each of the L3Y. DET had 3 new starters on the DL and in the secondary with Cutler hitting for 372 yds (66%, 2-1). The tables are turned here as they now face LY’s #9 defense that pulled in 49 sacks after allowing 4 sacks and 7 QBH’s vs DET. While DAL did allow 303 yds (64%) with a 2-1 ratio the last time they faced a Martz offense 105 yds and both TD’s were in garbage time after DAL had a 32-9 lead. DAL will have the crowd to help throw off the OL’s snap count (4 diff players in 5 OL spots LW) and DAL CB’s should matchup well vs CHI’s average WR’s here. We’ll call for DAL by 7 and wait for a line.

CAROLINA 13 Tampa Bay 10 - Fox is 11-5 SU and ATS vs TB, winning both SU and ATS LY by 7 and 10 pts. CAR’s ground game was at the forefront of each game with a 212 (5.2) to 139 (5.5) edge. Freeman had double the passing yards of Moore (321-161) in the 2nd game LY with a 469-309 yd edge. However he was int’d 4 times inside the CAR 25 (5 total) which CAR converted into 9 pts. Freeman (thumb) missed most of the preseason and it showed. He only had 182 yds (61%) with a 2-1 with 1 TD set up by a 64 yd IR. CAR was able to hang with the Giants in the 1H LW holding them to just 8 yds rushing (0.6) in the 1H but were outgained 196-72 in the 2H with 4 TO’s. Freeman has a play style similar to a younger Vince Young in that he doesn’t put up dominating stats but makes plays to put the team in a spot to win. CAR may start QB Clausen here as Moore may be forced to sit out due to the NFL’s strict concussion rules. We’ll call for the home team to win by 3 for now in a lower scoring game and wait for an injury update.

MINNESOTA 33 Miami 17 - The Vikings were outcoached in LW’s game vs NO being held to just two FD’s and 65 yds in the 2H. Caught with only 3 healthy CB’s NO went after the secondary in the 1H diffusing MIN’s elite front 7 then running against it in the 2H (70 yds on 23 att’s). Favre was sharp in the 1H with 127 yds (73%) with a 1-1 ratio but NO dropped 8 into coverage in the 2H. MIN now has the edge of extra rest here and practice reps to get Favre and his WR’s on track. RB Peterson’s 87 yds rushing (4.6) weren’t as bad as it looked LW as he didn’t get a lot of touches in the 2H (6 att 30 yds). After struggling to put away BUF LW MIA now finds itself in a tough spot on the road for the 2nd straight week with primetime games vs the Jets and Patriots on deck. While Henne completed 62% of his passes he only had a 5.4 ypa as the Dolphins punted on 6 of their 7 2H drives. We’ll side with an angry Vikings team with a loud home crowd and a greater array of weapons on both sides of the ball here.

OAKLAND 21 St Louis 14 - OAK was in a poor situation LW as after playing 4 straight night games in preseason they had to travel out to TEN and play a 10 am Pacific time game. With a new QB and OC running a new system the Raiders were outmatched being outgained 318-139 thru the 1st 3Q before TEN lost interest. Campbell (180 yds 47% 1-1) was expected to have a learning curve but the Raiders new run defense gave up 205 yds (5.3) on the ground. They now take a step down vs the one-dimensional Rams who were held to 85 yds (3.5) rushing LW. Bradford was forced to air it out 55 times (253 yds 1-3) which will give the Raider defense plenty of film to break down. STL was only able to stay in the game due to ARZ’s poor ball security (7 fumbles - 4 lost) and 10 penalties. While OAK hasn’t covered as a HF since Oct 2005 (0-10 ATS) they are a team with a plan and do have more talent defensively. They now get a rookie QB making his 1st start in the Black Hole with a very young supporting cast and the home team is the play.

DENVER 30 Seattle 24 - These two former AFC West rivals have met just twice since the NFL went to its current div format in ‘02 with the road team going 2-0 SU and ATS. LW despite the 24-17 loss to JAX, DEN played well with 21-18 FD and 363-299 yd edges. QB Orton managed 295 yds (63.6%) with a 1-1 ratio and will face LY’s #30 pass D (245 ypg). While SEA cruised to a 31-6 win at home vs SF, the game was closer than indicated as SF had 3 poss inside the SEA10 but came away with just 6 pts. SEA also had a 32 yd IR TD and were outgained 263-242. QB Hasselbeck was efficient with 170 yds (78.3%) and a 2-1 ratio. The Broncos are just 1-9-1 as a HF the L/2Y but SEA was 0-6 as a AD LY. DEN has won 5 consec HG SU against NFC foes (avg 23-16) while SEA has lost its L/6 SU on the road vs the AFC. The Seahawks played with great emotion LW in HC Carroll’s first game but it will be tough to take that emotion on the road.

WASHINGTON 20 Houston 17WAS is off LW’s SNF game vs DAL and those results are unknown. HOU HC Gary Kubiak used to be Mike Shanahan’s OC and Kyle Shanahan was on the Texans coaching staff as the WR then QB then OC from 2006-2009. WAS will know exactly how WR Johnson likes to run his routes as well as how Schaub goes thru his reads and checkdowns here. HOU will be getting lots of accolades from the media after only their 2nd win ever vs IND. HOU never trailed in the game and won by 10 as the Colts allowed a franchise high 257 yds (6.1) on the ground. Their defense was locked in as they forced IND to punt on their 1st 4 drives and forcing Manning to put it up 57 times. However, Schaub was inconsistent with 107 yds (53%) 1-1 and only had 5 pass att’s in the 2nd half. They now have to travel with the intensity of opening week behind them with a big instate rivalry vs DAL on deck. We’ve seen lots of team deflate after a big win (HOU 5-9 ATS) and the Texans haven’t proven to be the most consistent team.

TOTALS

Bucs/Car under 36,
Sea/Den over 39,
Miami,/Minn over 41
Jax/SD under 42,
AZ/Atl over 41'

Power Ratings play Vikings