Newsletters September 9 - 14

GEORGIA (-8) South Carolina
The South Carolina defense was impressive in the opening game, holding NC State to 133
yards, on the road no less. Last season the Gamecocks held a then ranked #2 Georgia team
to only 252 yards but came up just short in a 14-7 loss. This will be a tough second straight
road game for the Gamecocks but neither trip has required significant travel and opening the
college football season has afforded a little extra time before this second game. Georgia
returns home after a huge opening game, and the Bulldogs looked like the much better team
in the hyped match-up with Oklahoma State until a few tough breaks set-up a couple of easy
scoring opportunities for the Cowboys. Georgia was just 1-4 as a home favorite last season
and the opening loss has to be devastating emotionally for Georgia. Neither team has given
enough reason to back their offense but SC may have the defense. GEORGIA BY 4

TENNESSEE (-7½) Ucla
Lane Kiffin had a strong debut at Tennessee as the Volunteers pounded Western Kentucky
but little weight should be given to that win and the Volunteers may be a bit overvalued based
on that lopsided outcome. UCLA did not prove it has overcome the turnover problems that
plagued the team last season with three last week and freshmen QB Kevin Prince was not
sharp enough to exude confidence going into his first ever road game in a very hostile venue.
Even though the coaching staff and many players have changed this is still a revenge spot for
Tennessee after a very fortunate UCLA win last season. Both of these teams expect to be
significantly improved this year but Tennessee was the greater underachiever last season and
Coach Kiffin seems like one willing to run up the score if the opportunity is there. UCLA’s
defense should be very sound but this will be a tough revenge road trip. TENNESSEE BY 10

Byu (-17) TULANE
This is a bit of a sneaky line as Tulane was just a slightly smaller home underdog against
Tulsa last week while BYU comes into this game as a highly ranked team fresh off a huge
upset of Oklahoma. The emotional toll will be serious for the Cougars and another road trip of
great length could be a problematic situation especially with a big game against Florida State
waiting next week. By last year’s standards Tulane did a great job containing Tulsa last week
and the yardage in that game was quite even despite a 24-point loss for the Green Wave.
BYU played an incredible game last week and was particularly impressive defensively but the
Cougars did catch some breaks and the letdown potential is huge even if Tulane is a team
with some issues. The Wave are expected to be an improved team and the opener was
encouraging with Joe Kemp playing well and creating opportunities for the offense. BYU’s
offense is likely to find many more opportunities this week but the Cougars have not
performed well in the road favorite role and now the national pressure is building. BYU BY 10

OREGON (-11½) Purdue
In a twisted sense, castigated Oregon RB LaGarrette Blount may have done the Ducks a
service with his post-game punch as little attention focused on the truly pathetic offensive
performance from Oregon. The Ducks averaged 485 yards of offense per game last season
and posted only 152 yards last week including collecting a grand total of six first downs in
Boise, with none until the middle of the third quarter. The Broncos had several mistakes to
give the Ducks a chance but the offense could not advance until it was too late. Last season
Purdue lost to Oregon in overtime and after a shootout win last week the Boilermakers have
some confidence despite limited experience. Purdue also allowed nearly 500 yards last week
against Toledo at home so Oregon should be much more productive this week and the Ducks
hold a very tough home field edge. Much of Toledo’s production came after the game was out
of hand however and in a battle of first year coaches that should be making smooth transitions
Purdue and Coach Danny Hope has fewer headaches at this point making a competitive effort
in a tough venue very possible. OREGON BY 7

Texas (-33) WYOMING
Five turnovers helped Wyoming earn an opening victory over Weber State last week but the
Cowboys were in control and the final score was much closer than the game ever was.
Wyoming has switched to a no-huddle spread offense under new coach Dave Christensen
and he has some familiarity with Texas having worked as an assistant at Missouri in recent
years. The Longhorns failed to cover a monster spread last week and will now face a stiff road
test as Laramie can be a very tough place to play and Wyoming is 11-5 the last 16 chances as
home underdogs. Texas has not faced a line this steep on the road since its championship
season in 2005 and with a much bigger game against Texas Tech up next there will be some
potential to look-ahead as well as rest key players as soon as a comfortable lead is
developed. Wyoming’s new offense could create some difficulties as the Cowboys rushed for
246 yards last week and with the quick score potential of Texas the Longhorns defense could
wear out a bit with the up-tempo style. Texas should certainly win this game with ease but the
Longhorns did allow 20 points last week and there were many mistakes. TEXAS BY 24

NAVY (-7½) Louisiana Tech
The Midshipmen captured some of the spotlight last week with a promising effort against Ohio
State. This could be a tougher follow -up however as Navy played as a favorite just twice all of
last season and the motivation can not be quite as strong following the attention the opener
received. Louisiana Tech had a very disappointing opening game as they expected to play
with Auburn last season after beating a SEC team last year. Tech returns a ton of experience
and they held up strong in the first half last week before a couple of big plays completely
changed the tide. While Nicholls State is on deck for the Bulldogs, Navy could get caught in
the past attention from last week while also spying another big-time opponent with Pitt on the
schedule next. Navy is sure to post strong rushing numbers in this match-up but Louisiana
Tech can also run the ball and a veteran offensive line should be in a much more favorable
match-up this week after wearing down against the strength and athleticism of Auburn. Navy
is a tough team to go-against but this looks like a tough spot and great value on a Louisiana
Tech team that won eight games last year and returns nearly everyone. LA TECH BY 3

Notre Dame (-4½) MICHIGAN
No two coaches are facing more pressure this season as these once mighty programs have
taken serious falls. This is still a huge series however and both teams passed with flying
colors in tricky opening games last week. Michigan has covered in just two of the last ten
home games but playing as a home underdog is a different situation and that has happened
just three times in the last eight years. Both teams moved the ball with ease last week with
success on the ground and through the air. Defensively Michigan looks capable of making
Notre Dame one-dimensional which could be the key to this game. Notre Dame allowed 300
yards despite the shutout and Michigan could have had a shutout if they wanted to,
completely laying off in the second half. The Wolverines did not score at all and allowed
Western Michigan’s lone touchdown in the 4th quarter. Last season Notre Dame won 35-17 at
home but Irish caught a ton of breaks in that game with turnovers and actually only had 260
yards of offense compared to nearly 400 from Michigan. MICHIGAN BY 7

WASHINGTON (-20½) Idaho
When you think about it, a team that has lost 15 consecutive games probably shouldn’t be
favored by over 20 points against anyone but the Huskies proved a lot last week against LSU.
The non-conference games for Washington have been so brutally tough in recent years that
this is a huge drop in competition and Idaho will face a second straight road game coming off
a rare win last week. Washington out-gained LSU last week 478-321 and Jake Locker
reminded everyone how talented he is and his loss was a huge part of last season’s slide.
Idaho came up with a few big plays and faced a New Mexico State squad in transition and the
Vandals had incredible success on third downs in that game. Washington is on a long losing
streak that should be snapped this week and the Huskies will not pull back on the way to
getting that first win. Idaho allowed over 470 yards per game last season and this will be a far
tougher match-up than faced last week. WASHINGTON BY 28

UAB (-11) Smu
Both of these teams will be more offensive oriented and UAB had a terrific opening effort with
a 44-24 win and over 500 yards of offense. SMU also picked up a win last week but it was
against a much lesser opponent and in much less impressive fashion. SMU trailed 23-14
entering the 4th quarter against Stephen F. Austin but found away to put together a few late
drives while also catching a break with a missed field goal from SFA. SMU allowed 460 yards
in that game which could be problematic going on the road to face a Blazers team that returns
all eleven offensive starters from last season. Rice was a bowl team last year and UAB won
with ease last week despite two turnovers and 111 yards in penalties. SMU won just once last
season and not against a FBS team but the Mustangs will be improved this season and could
make some noise late in C-USA play but the experience edge and past success for UAB on
offense should factor prominently in this early season game. UAB BY 14

Pittsburgh (-11) BUFFALO
Coming off a MAC championship season where Buffalo was extremely fortunate, the Bulls
faced about as tough of a conventional situation as could be had last week and still won. As
happened a few times last season, Buffalo was out-gained and won. The Bulls caught a few
breaks with a fumble that turned into a safety as well as som e key penalties but what has
been accomplished by Coach Turner Gill has been remarkable with a program that was
historically bad just a few years ago. Last season Buffalo lost by just eleven at Pittsburgh in a
game that was incredibly even statistically. Last week Pittsburgh won 38-3 over Youngstown
State and the Panthers displayed a dominant defense in that game. Youngstown State was
not a quality FCS team last year so not much should be taken from the opener. Buffalo is
playing a new QB and will face a second straight road contest but this is a team to avoid going
against until further notice as they continue to find ways to win. PITTSBURGH BY 10

Tcu (-12) VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers committed seven turnovers last week in a 26-14 loss to FCS William & Mary.
The loss may be a low point for embattled coach Al Groh in his ninth year at Virginia. The new
spread offense will obviously take some time to develop and three QBs played last week with
no real success. TCU was one of the few teams to not play las t week so there has been
immense attention place on this game. After seeing BYU earn some national attention last
week the Frogs are ready to prove they are on that same level even though few starters are
back in action from last year’s 11-2 team. Virginia is 15-4 in the last 19 games as home
underdogs but the Cavaliers offense can not be trusted and there will be no looking past this
game for TCU. Virginia has bounced back from opening losses to deliver a win the following
week each of the last three years but one of those wins was against a FCS team and in the
other two the Cavaliers did not come close to covering and this will obviously be a much more
difficult match-up facing a team that needs to make a statement. TCU BY 17

BOSTON COLLEGE (-21) Kent State
Per usual not much is expected of Boston College this season but this team has won at least
eight games in each of the last seven years as one of the most consistent performers that is
almost always underrated. As a result BC is 62-47-2 ATS since ’00 including 32-19-2 at home.
BC and Kent both delivered shutout wins over FCS teams last week but the Eagles did it a bit
more impressively with 54 points in the head coaching debut of Frank Spaziani. Last season
the Eagles beat Kent 21-0 in Cleveland with turnovers playing a big role. Both teams feature
unproven QBs but there is decent experience throughout the rosters. Kent features a solid
running game with Eugene Jarvis who can be a terror on special teams as well as a receiving
threat. QB Giorgio Morgan threw two interceptions last week and Kent led just 9-0 heading
into the 4th quarter and the offense may have a tough time keeping up in this game. BC BY 24

TEXAS TECH (-26) Rice
The Red Raiders went 11-2 last year but were a losing ATS team as all spreads are inflated
based on the scoring potential of Texas Tech. Very few players are back with the offense this
season although this is a program that has transitioned the QB and WR positions smoothly in
recent years. Last week the offense passed for 405 yards but just 38 points as QB Taylor
Potts had more interceptions than touchdowns. Rice won ten games last season but struggled
defensively and little appears to have changed in a lopsided loss last week. The Owls figure to
have a much less productive offense this season this is a potentially disastrous match-up for
Rice. Two years ago Tech covered in Houston as a 28-point favorite, winning 59-24 so this is
actually not a bad price on the Red Raiders relatively speaking. Tech averaged 43 points per
game last year and if they get to that mark they will have a good chance of covering as the
defense was better than most realize last season and there are seven returning starters this
year. Rice will have a tough time keeping up or getting any stops. TEXAS TECH BY 31

MINNESOTA (-4½) Air Force
The Gophers had a fast start before stalling last week but managed to rally to tie the game
late and win in overtime. It was not an impressive showing comparing Syracuse teams of the
past few seasons but there is a legitimate chance that the Orange are improved on defense.
This is a highly anticipated game as Minnesota opens a new outdoor on-campus stadium after
years in the Metrodome. Air Force has brought this line down with a 72-0 win last week but
little weight should be given to the big win over Nicholls State, a team that rates very low at
the FCS level. Minnesota has a veteran offense that should have plenty of scoring
opportunities but stopping the Air Force option attack could be a problem. Minnesota was
more vulnerable against the pass last season and the Gophers could ride some momentum
and an excited fan base into some solid defensive stands. Air Force has often been a very
dangerous underdog but Minnesota has shown the potential to be an explosive offense team
even though it did not have great consistency last week. MINNESOTA BY 6

Hawaii (-3) Washington State @Seattle, WA
Washington State used two QBs last week but Kevin Lopina appeared to be the more
effective player despite his horrendous numbers last season. The bigger problems for the
Cougars are on defense as Stanford moved the ball with ease on the ground last week in
another lopsided loss for WSU. The Pullman campus has also been hit hard by the flu so it is
likely that some players will see the impact. Hawaii needed a late score to knock off Central
Arkansas last week as turnovers were a big issue even though the Warriors posted big
numbers on offense and senior QB Greg Alexander delivered a strong game. Last season
Hawaii won 24-10 on the islands in game where both QBs hit the ground often with five sacks
each but Hawaii was able to move the ball in the air downfield. Playing in Seattle will not help
the cause for the Cougars and though this is a winnable game it will take a lot of courage to
back Washington State in its current format. HAWAII BY 7

INDIANA (-1½) Western Michigan
Western Michigan did not put up a strong fight against Michigan last week but this should be a
Big Ten match-up that the Broncos can handle. Indiana barely squeaked by Eastern Kentucky
last week as the running game was ineffective and there were several key mistakes in all
areas of the team. The Hoosiers look drastically like the worst team in the Big Ten and Indiana
lost to two MAC teams last season. Although he did not have a good game last week against
Michigan, Western QB Tim Hiller has 31 starts under his belt and should be one of the top
passers in the MAC. Indiana returns an experienced defense but it was a fairly awful unit last
season, allowing 35 points and 432 yards per game. Junior QB Ben Chappell does not have
much experience and he had two interceptions last week for the Hoosiers. Western Michigan
played Indiana close in ’06 and ’07 and this could be the breakthrough as long as cos tly
turnovers can be avoided. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 4

MISSOURI (-17) Bowling Green
Both of these teams put on offensive shows last week and won outright as underdogs.
Missouri crushed Illinois as QB Blaine Gabbert made an extremely impressive debut. The
Missouri defense also made several big plays despite surrendering some yardage. With an
FCS opponent up next there will be no overlooking this game and the Tigers may be better
than many projected this season. Bowling Green underachieved last season and it led to a
coaching change and the new staff delivered a strong start with an impressive win over a
highly regarded Troy squad. The Falcons have a veteran offense but the performance by the
defense was the big story as few players returned from a unit that struggled last season.
Bowling Green did convert three 4th down plays and also caught some breaks with turnovers
so a repeat performance is unlikely. Playing on the road could also be a much different story
and the Tigers should deliver a win in this match-up. MISSOURI BY 21

Kansas (-11) UTEP
The Jayhawks had nearly 550 yards of offense to wipe out Northern Colorado last week and
the early season schedule is favorable for Kansas with this being the lone road test. UTEP
returns a veteran team that appears poised for a division title run but the opener was ugly, as
a disastrous 2nd quarter led to a loss at home. UTEP did post significant yardage in the game
but could not convert in any big situations while being forced to abandon the running game too
soon. UTEP has not fared well at home ATS and Kansas averaged 33 points per game last
season and returns a great QB in senior Todd Reesing. Since Coach Price took over in El
Paso the Miners have not defeated a BCS conference team and this is a team that is just 9-9
S/U at home the last three years while being a losing team despite modest expectations.
Kansas has a lot to prove and can get the job done. KANSAS BY 14

SOUTHERN MISS (-14½) Central Florida
The Golden Eagles were a surprise bowl team last year and almost the entire starting lineup
returns this season for Coach Fedora’s second year. Last week against Alcorn State,
Southern Miss posted over 600 yards of offense and this program could return to its status as
a C-USA power that could make noise nationally. Central Florida returns much of its offensive
talent from last year but that was one of the least productive units in the nation, averaging just
230 yards and 16 points per game. The Knights got a win last week but the numbers were not
much better and this year’s defense likely has taken a step back. UCF needed a 4th quarter
score to win last week and Southern Miss should cruise at home. SOUTHERN MISS BY 24

OKLAHOMA STATE (-15) Houston
On a huge national stage Oklahoma State delivered a monumental win that justifies the high
rankings and expectations. In the early going it didn’t look good but a few big plays turned
things around. This will be a very difficult follow -up game as Houston played tough against the
Cowboys last seas on before losing 56-37 and the Cougars figure to be a high scoring team.
Last week Houston passed for nearly 450 yards and Oklahoma State will be in a very tough
emotional letdown situation. The Cowboys could post big numbers but OSU is going to be
overvalued this week and Houston returns most of the key offensive players from last year’s
team that averaged 40 points per game. OSU has not proven it is ready for the pressure of
elevated expectations and attention as a big favorite. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 10

BOISE STATE (-35½) Miami, OH
After hanging close early, Miami lost big last week in a terrible performance all around for the
debut of new coach Mike Haywood. Miami won just two games last season and it will be
another long season this year as the offense takes a different shape and there is little
experienced talent on defense. It would make sense to go against Boise State no matter what
this week based on how huge the game was last week and all the distractions that followed.
Boise clearly was focused on a great game plan against Oregon and there is more work to be
done with chief conference rival Fresno State waiting in line next Friday for what will be the
first road game for the Broncos. Boise State is 35-15 ATS at home the last eight years and
Coac h Chris Peterson has never lost S/U at home. This team continues to defy all doubters
and trying to catch points with a lousy Miami team is not worth the risk. BOISE STATE BY 41

LSU (-15½) Vanderbilt
The Tigers picked up a win but there were many things to be concerned about after last
week’s win in Seattle. LSU will open the SEC season against Vanderbilt and these teams
have not met since ’05. The Commodores have much of last year’s bowl team back in action
and sophomore Larry Smith played well as the starting QB in a very convincing win last week
over Western Carolina though he eventually left the game. Smith is short on experience but
the running game provided lots of support last week, rushing for 433 yards. The Vandy
defense gave up just four first downs and although LSU has a lot of talent the offense has
limited experience in a few key spots. The Tigers are also just 1-7 ATS in the last eight games
as favorites of ten or more at home and Vanderbilt has become a team that can compete
respectably in the SEC. Coming back from a long road trip and a big win could take a toll on
the Tigers and this seems like a dangerous game. LSU BY 13

Tulsa (-17) NEW MEXICO
It is an extreme transitional year for the Lobos and it showed last week in an ugly 41-6 loss to
Texas A&M. New Mexico had just six first downs and the defense surrendered over 600
yards. Tulsa won big last Friday but the level of production was below average for the Golden
Hurricanes after averaging 570 yards per game last season. There was talk of Tulsa using
three QBs last week but only G.J. Kinne played and he played well enough that there likely
won’t be talk of a multi-QB offense. Kinne rushed for 77 yards in addition to an efficient day in
the air. Tulsa took the lead early las t week and did not run up the score as often was the case
last season and this will be a second straight road game with a trip to Norman up next. This
could be a tougher spot for Tulsa but trusting New Mexico after an ugly effort last week is not
a viable option at this point in the season. TULSA BY 21

Usc (-6½) OHIO STATE
Ohio State is now just 1-8 ATS in the last nine home games and the Buckeyes had some
serious concerns raised on defense last week as Navy moved the ball very effectively. The
Buckeyes offense showed a lot of potential but the task this week will obviously be much more
difficult. USC won easily in this match-up last season but RB Chris Wells was injured and QB
Terrelle Pryor had not been fully immersed as the starter yet. The final was also misleading as
an interception return broke the game open late. USC has played several challenging nonconference
games in past years but few that historically would qualify as this tough even
though the Buckeyes have lost some prestige with big bowl game blowout losses and the
narrow escape last week. The Trojans had no problems with a freshmen QB starting last week
but Matt Barkley certainly showed some youth and inexperience early in the game and playing
in a much tougher environment could lead to some mistakes. It didn’t show up in the box
score last week but the USC defense had a lot of mistakes in terms of missed assignments
and general disorder. The Trojans could get away with that type of sloppy play last week but
this is still a team in transition with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Ohio State
never appeared thoroughly focused last week and perhaps the team is not as good as they
have been in past years but its best performance should be coming for this game. This line is
a bit shocking taken out of context and this is just the third time OSU will play as a home
underdog since Coach Tressel took over the team. OHIO STATE BY 3

Utah (-13½) SAN JOSE STATE
This will be the first road game for a Utah offense replacing many parts from last year’s
undefeated team. Utah had three turnovers and was far from stout on defense last week in a
comfortable win over in-state rival Utah State but those mistakes led to a missed cover. Utah
has been a fantastic ATS team in recent years in every scenario except as a road favorite and
this could be trickier test than many would expect by glancing at the opening week scores.
San Jose State plays in the WAC as Utah State does and the Spartans whipped the Aggies
30-7 last season for comparisons sake. A veteran team is back for excellent coach Dick
Tomey and San Jose State should not be faulted too severely for losing badly to USC last
week in Los Angeles. The Spartans actually led the first quarter in that game and after a few
big plays took the game out of hand most of the key players rested. San Jose State is 5-2 the
last three years as home underdogs and last season the Spartans creamed MWC opponent
San Diego State at home. Look for Utah to have some setbacks in this road opener and
looking ahead to a big game with Oregon is a possibility. UTAH BY 10

Oregon State (-7½) UNLV
Oregon State and UNLV both cruised to relatively easy wins last week against FCS foes and
UNLV was actually much more dominant in the box score. The Rebels have expectations of
taking a step forward this season and earning the first bowl trip since the ’00 season as there
is a lot of talent returning for a team that was competitive last year going 5-7 and suffering a
few narrow losses. Last year UNLV beat Arizona State in overtime in Tempe so facing a Pac -
10 opponent will not bring awe. The Beavers return very few players on defense and it
showed last week as Portland State had a lot of success passing the ball and connected for
17 first downs in the game. The Beav er offense has experience and talent that should allow
for another successful year for a program that has quietly won nine or more games each of
the last three years. UNLV is 12-5 the last 17 games as home underdogs and right now the
Rebels appear to be the more complete team. UNLV owns early season home covers versus
Iowa State, Wisconsin, Utah, and BYU the last two years. OREGON STATE BY 4

NEBRASKA (-23½) Arkansas State
The Cornhuskers won 49-3 last week against another Sun Belt team but it was a tightly
contested first half and for the game both teams had 22 first downs and Nebraska allowed 358
yards despite surrendering just three points. Arkansas State was an even bigger winner last
week with a 61-0 win while allowing only 69 yards but Mississippi Valley State projects as one
of the absolute worst FCS teams. That said Arkansas State will bring confidence to Lincoln
and this Red Wolves team won at Texas A&M last season while also nearly beating Southern
Miss and hanging close for a near shocker two years ago by losing by just eight at Texas.
While Nebraska QB Zac Lee makes just his second ever start, Arkansas State features a
veteran offense from a team that won six games last season. Nebraska also will have a hard
time not looking ahead to a huge national game at Virginia Tech next week. Last season
Arkansas State soundly defeated Nebraska’s opponent last week , Florida Atlantic, and the
Huskers were not as impressive as the score indicated last week. NEBRASKA BY 13

ALABAMA (-33½) Florida International
After last season’s huge opening win against Clemson the Crimson Tide nearly laid a big egg
with a horrendous effort and a narrow escape as a huge favorite against Tulane the following
week. It will be difficult to avoid a similar letdown again this season. This will be the first game
of the season for Florida International so the focus all summer has been on this match-up and
ten starters from a year ago are back on offense. After going 1-23 in ’06 & ’07, FIU was very
competitive last season w ith five wins and an 8-4 ATS record. The Panthers earned covers
against major conference foes Kansas and South Florida last season and Alabama is just 4-7
as a home favorite since Coach Saban took over. Alabama is historically just 6-15 the last 21
games as double-digit favorites and although the defense looked outstanding last week the
offense has issues and will have a hard time running up a huge score. ALABAMA BY 21

South Florida (-24) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Western Kentucky was crushed at Tennessee last week and although this will be a rare
opportunity to host a major conference foe the Hilltoppers do not appear to have what it takes
to compete in this type of match-up. Only four starters return on defense and the offense
produced only 83 yards last week. South Florida won easily last week and the Bulls continue a
very light early season schedule. Last week’s opponent Wofford uses an interesting offense
that likely caused the slow start and made the USF defensive numbers look a bit suspect
against the run. South Florida is a talented team with veteran leaders on both sides of the ball,
but the Bulls have been plagued by wild inconsistency. Those lapses have typically come later
in the year however and this should be a decent opportunity for a convincing win as Western
Kentucky will have a very tough time making stops. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 31

FLORIDA (-36) Troy
Looking ahead to this game may have been an issue last week for a Troy team that most
expected to be a 10-win team as the class of the Sun Belt and the one team from that
conference that could compete in non-conference games. Recall that last season Troy led
LSU 31-10 in the 4th quarter but surrendered an incredible comeback. Troy had serious
trouble running the ball last week and senior QB Levi Brown had a few costly mistakes.
Florida won easily last week but there were some problems as starting tackle Carl Johnson
was injured and the receiving corps had several drops. Florida did not mix things up on
defense at all and casually allowed 323 yards but the intensity will step up this week although
the Gators are likely to still leave things off the table with Tennessee on deck next week. Troy
is 22-13 ATS the last three years and the Trojans will be set for a redeeming effort this week
while Florida will not be interested in earning style points. FLORIDA BY 28

Ohio (-2½) NORTH TEXAS
North Texas has already matched its 2008 win total delivering a major upset last week on the
road against Ball State. Another MAC team is up next and this time the game is at home in
Denton. The Mean Green projected as a greatly improved team and statistically the yardage
was far more lopsided than the final score was last week as QB Riley Dodge lived up to the
hype in his debut. Ohio could not move the ball on offense last week and some of the same
problems that plagued the Bobcats last year could again be at work as neither QB was
impressive. Ohio is 17-41 S/U on the road the past eight years and the comparisons to last
year’s North Texas team should halt immediately. The Mean Green is much better defensively
and the offense will be tough to keep pace with it, particularly in what may become a tougher
home environment. NORTH TEXAS BY 6

Memphis (NL) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Turnovers killed the opportunities for MTSU last week against Clemson and this will be a
highly anticipated home game for the Blue Raiders facing an in-state team from a bigger
conference. Last season MTSU beat Maryland at home and in ’07 this team nearly beat
Virginia at home so this can be a very tough place to play. Clemson’s defense figures to be
one of the best in the ACC and possibly the nation so the output from the Blue Raiders last
week was commendable and it would have been a much closer game if not for three
interceptions by QB Dwight Dasher and a punt return TD for the Tigers. Memphis was
crushed last week in the annual rivalry game with Ole Miss although the game was far closer
than the final score indicated. This is a game MTSU has keyed in on and the upset is very
possible in what should be a very competitive game. MTSU BY 3

Kansas State (-7½) LOUISIANA
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 0-4 as home underdogs the past three seasons and although
Louisiana allowed 380 yards last week they won 49-3. Bill Snyder’s return to the sidelines
featured a much tougher game as Kansas State needed to hold off a late rally against FCS
Massachusetts. The Minutemen project as one of the better teams at that level, rating very
comparably with the Northern Iowa team that nearly beat Iowa last week according to the
Sagarin numbers. Louisiana is likely to take a step back after winning six games last season.
For ULL there is a lot of inexperience in key spots on offense though the team made plenty of
plays last week. Expect a strong defensive effort from K-State and this is a cheap price on
what should be a bowl-bound Wildcats team. KANSAS STATE BY 14

Nelly's Greensheet

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 CINCINNATI (-3½) over Denver
RATING 4 SAN FRANCISCO (+6½) over Arizona
RATING 3 JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indianapolis
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-4½) over New York Jets
RATING 1 DALLAS (-4½) over Tampa Bay

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2009

PITTSBURGH (-5) Tenne ssee (35)
These were the top two teams in the AFC last season in terms of records and both teams
have impressive defensive resumes. Although the Steelers have the Super Bowl hardware the
Titans have had success in this series, winning four of the last five meetings including a 31-14
thrashing in Nashville last year. A rematch was not to be in the postseason as the Titans were
eliminated early. Over the last three years the Titans are 9-3-1 the past as road underdogs
and Tennessee seems to be a perennially underestimated team. Veteran QB Collins and an
outstanding running game should have some success while Tennessee’s defense can be just
as dominant as a Pittsburgh team that is likely a bit overvalued. TITANS BY 3

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2009

ATLANTA (-4) Miami (43)
Both Atlanta and Miami delivered surprising turnaround seasons last year going from last
place to the playoffs. Taking another step forward will be a difficult repeat performance and
this will be a key game for both teams as the next two games on the schedule are brutally
tough for both squads. Atlanta will have more pressure and higher expectations and the
Dolphins won six road games last season including going 5-1 as a road underdog. Miami
certainly caught some good fortune last season but the Dolphins are a tough team to prepare
for. Look for Miami to hang around in this match-up and steal the cover. FALCONS BY 3

BALTIMORE (-10) Kansas City (37)
With the injury to Matt Cassel the Chiefs are not in a much different position than they were
last season. However Kansas City will hope to improve on the 2-14 record and Tyler Thigpen
is slated to start again despite being replaced by Cassel and also being involved in trade
rumors. Thigpen actually put up respectable numbers late last year and though he won few
games the Chiefs were competitive. Kansas City lost nine of the final ten games of the season
but only one of those losses came by more than ten points. Baltimore was one of the more
impressive preseason teams this year and the Ravens are coming off a trip to the AFC
Championship. Baltimore still has a great defense but this is a steep line this early in the
season even with the differing projections for these squads. RAVENS BY 7

Philadelphia (-1) CAROLINA (43½)
The Eagles made a lot of noise this off-season and remain one of the favored contenders in
the NFC. The line for the opening week should be telling as the Panthers were 12-4 last
season, earning a first round bye in the playoffs before being wiped out by Arizona’s great run.
The Eagles eventually met the same fate and these teams have not met since 2006. Carolina
was 8-0 at home in the regular season last year with only one ATS loss. Philadelphia has
been one of the best road teams in the NFL under Andy Reid however, going 46-25-1 S/U the
past eight years. The Eagles look like the better team right now and the Panthers appear to
have some issues on defense. EAGLES BY 4

CINCINNATI (-3½) Denver (43½)
The Bengals organization usually has some of the biggest off-field distractions and issues with
player behavior but Denver has stolen much of the spotlight this season. As if first-year coach
Josh McDaniels was not under enough pressure already replacing a two-time Super Bowl
champion, the scrutiny will be heightened ten-fold after the two biggest stars on the offense
have been driven away from the team. Denver only covered in four games all of last season
and the preseason provided some very discouraging efforts. The Bengals do still have some
lingering injury issues with QB Carson Palmer missing most of last season. The Bengals
actually played well late in the season after a disastrous start and Cincinnati could prove to be
a surprising team that can deliver an opening win. BENGALS BY 10

Minnesota (-3½) CLEVELAND (39½)
The Vikings will be under the microscope this season with incredibly high expectations after
the Brett Favre saga and eventual signing. Minnesota has a great team on paper but there are
a lot of new pieces in place and expectations of a smooth start should be grounded,
particularly with the first two games of the season on the road. The Browns endured a serious
QB battle in the preseason and with a new coaching staff the expectations are low for
Cleveland. Coach Mangini turned the Jets around quickly however and Cleveland is just a
year removed from being a 10-win squad so there is talent on this team. The Browns only won
once at home last season but they are 5-2 as home dogs the past two years. VIKINGS BY 3

HOUSTON (-4½) NY Jets (43)
Expectations are high for the Texans this season after going 8-8 each of the last two seasons.
Taking the next step will be difficult playing in the AFC South so winning the non-conference
games will be of paramount importance. The Jets transition with a new coach and a rookie QB
but last season proved that situation is not always a recipe for disaster. Houston is 12-4 at
home the past two seasons and the Texans should have one of the more productive offenses
in the league. The Jets could sneak up on teams at some point this year but too much will be
working against New York in week one. TEXANS BY 10

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Jacksonville (44)
The Jaguars should not be counted out as they have had a great history of success in this
series and remember that although it should be a smooth transition, this will be the first Colts
game without Coach Dungy. The Jaguars had a lot of things go wrong last season but could
quietly be a surprise team this year, capable of winning week one as they won in Indianapolis
early last season and have not lost ATS on the road in this series any of the past four years.
The Colts have had significant player turnover in a few key spots and Indianapolis was just 2-
5 as a home favorite last season while clearly overvalued to open the year. COLTS BY 3

NEW ORLEANS (-13) Detroit (43½)
The Lions became such big underdogs on the 0-16 run last year that they were a very
profitable team to back in road games, covering in each of the final six games away from
home. New Orleans is poised for a big season but the Saints have not been a strong early
season team the past two years. Rookie Matthew Stafford will get the start for the Lions and
he will have the initial advantage of the Saints defense not having faced him before and seen
only limited tape. Detroit seems to have a new attitude with the new coaching staff and a
strong opening effort should be expected although the Saints likely win. SAINTS BY 10

Dallas (-4½) TAMPA BAY (40)
Tampa Bay looks to be in a dire situation with the recent firing of its offensive coordinator and
significant changes taking place after last season. Dallas has been a great September team in
recent years and even though the Bucs have a strong history as home underdogs the
Cowboys should start strong. Dallas was 3-2 as a road favorite last season and the Cowboys
are not getting as much love as would be expected this season after continuing to disappoint
late in the year the past few seasons. COWBOYS BY 6

ARIZONA (-6½) San Francisco (47)
The 49ers played great late in the year last season to finish 7-9 yet San Francisco seems to
be the forgotten team in the NFC West as many expect a big rebound from Seattle and the
Cardinals are getting a lot of attention after the Super Bowl run. San Francisco covered in a
narrow loss at Arizona last season and the 49ers have never lost ATS in this stadium. Shaun
Hill has not posted big numbers but he has been a winner under center and San Francisco
should have the vastly superior running game in this match-up as well as a secondary capable
of containing the explosive Cardinal passing game. 49ERS BY 1

NY GIANTS (-6½) Washington (37½)
Washington should feature a first-rate defense as they did last season but the offense has not
proven capable of consistent results and even in the preseason the first-unit looked awful at
times. Washington lost to open the season in this match-up last year with an ugly effort and
the Redskins also lost at home to the Giants. New York is still the favorite in the NFC East but
the Giants have not proven worthy of being a touchdown favorite against a quality team. New
York closed last season losing four of five games including the early exit from the playoffs.
This should be a defensive battle and the Redskins may have the playmakers to keep this
game extremely close and have a shot at a major division upset. GIANTS BY 4

SEATTLE (-9) St. Louis (42½)
Although St. Louis will likely be better than many of the dire projections the Seahawks have
had great success in this series winning S/U in eight consecutive meetings. Seattle should
feature a quality offense as Matt Hasselbeck looked extremely sharp in the preseason back at
100 percent. The Rams played as a larger underdog early last season in Seattle and could not
come close to covering, while Seattle figures to be a much stronger team and St. Louis is still
caught in transition. St. Louis will be underdog winners at some point this season but this is
tough place to start for the new coaching staff. SEAHAWKS BY 16

GREEN BAY (-3½) Chicago (44½)
The Bears are getting a lot of attention with Jay Cutler on board at QB but Chicago has had
very little success in recent years against their division rival. The Packers seem to have
adapted the Dom Capers 3-4 defense quickly and Aaron Rodgers appears in complete
command aided by one of the best group of receivers in the NFL. Chicago will have limited
options on offense as the receiving threats are not present and Matt Forte will need to carry a
heavy load with Kevin Jones injured. The Bears and Vikings are getting most of the attention
in the North but Green Bay may have the most complete team and the Packers should be in a
strong position to win this opening game. PACKERS BY 7

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2009

NEW ENGLAND (-10½) Buffalo (48)
The Bills recently fired their offensive coordinator after a very shaky preseason while the
Patriots have also made some notable roster moves in recent weeks. All eyes will be on Tom
Brady and Terrell Owens as Brady battles back from injury and Owens debuts for the Bills.
There was little promise for the Bills in preseason action but this is a team that is still capable
of being improved. New England has failed to cover in ten of the last eleven games as doubledigit
favorites and no doubt overwhelming action will be on the heavily favored Patriots in a
marquee TV game which usually is a sign of caution. The Bills have had little success in this
series but Buffalo allowed just 33 points in two games against New England last season and
could surprise by making enough plays to stay close. PATRIOTS BY 9

San Diego (-9) OAKLAND (44)
The dysfunctional Raiders have been blown out in the opening game of the season four
straight years and there is little reason to believe this season will be different. The Chargers
face a big recent distraction but San Diego should overwhelmingly be the best team in the
NFC West and the Chargers have covered in eleven of the last twelve meetings with Oakland
despite often facing huge spreads. Oakland is just 7-20 as home underdogs in recent years
and San Diego has an offense capable of piling on points. While the Chargers were victimized
by a lot of bad breaks last year things could be different this year and getting off to a strong
start will be a high priority for a very talented team on both sides of the ball. Oakland has
some talent on defense and could eventually have a solid running game but success early in
the year is not likely to happen. CHARGERS BY 14

Winning Points

NCAA

****BEST BET
AUBURN* over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 35
It was almost an exact-score win from Auburn at the top of these pages last week,
and we saw exactly what we wanted to see in Gene Chizik’s debut – the offense relished
working in Gus Malzahn’s playbook, with Chris Todd hitting 17-26 for 255
and a pair of scores, while the one-two punch of Ben Tate inside, and Onterio
McCalebb on the perimeter, produced a pair of 100-yard rushers. They will only
get better as they grow in confidence and add more chapters from that playbook,
but in truth it is the defense that takes the lead here. That group only allowed one
touchdown to Louisiana Tech, coming on a drive in which three major penalties
ate up most of the yardage, and they have a chance to control matters completely
here in what has been one of the strongest defense vs. offense series dominations
in recent memory. The Mississippi State 5th year seniors have managed all of one
offensive touchdown and two field goals in four meetings vs. the Tigers, and the
matchup issues might be even worse this time. The personnel is just not there yet
to run Dan Mullen’s spread schemes with any degree of success vs. this class, especially
on the road, and their development in the spring was limited because of key
injuries at the WR spots. Without an ability to control the ball it forces the Bulldog
defense to be on the field far too long, and with only four returning starters that
group is actually a weak link for a change, after allowing 36.5 points per game in
going 1-4 ATS as road underdogs last season, AUBURN 41-6.

***BEST BET
SOUTHERN MISS* over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 31
The 2008 Southern Miss season did not raise a many eyebrows, with the Golden
Eagles barely scraping their way to a .500 regular season, and then rallying to beat
Troy in an uninspiring bowl win. But in truth the first season under Larry Fedora
was a huge success, with his playbook being absorbed much more quickly than we
thought possible given the drastic changes in schemes. The key is that the personnel
were ideal, with Austin Davis having an outstanding freshman season at QB
(3,128 passing yards, with 23 TD’s vs. only eight interceptions, and 508 more on
the ground), Damion Fletcher running for 1,313 yards at 6.0 per pop, and four
different receivers catching at least 33 passes. Now the major keys are back except
for TE Shawn Nelson, who can be replaced, and the OL returns every starter. That
means a chance to pick up right where they left off, and perhaps to even magnify
that in the second go-round of these systems, which means adding new layers. That
spells bad news for George O’Leary, who saw his Golden Knights humbled much
worse than the 17-6 final score at Orlando last year, with Southern running 88
plays to 49, and leading 22-10 in first downs. Now we see the gap as being even
wider, with UCF lacking playmakers anywhere on offense. It is not easy to average
16.6 points and 230 yards per game in this day and age, which they did last year,
and the 14 first downs and 282 yards vs. Samford in the opener confirms our suspicions
about the lack of talent at the skill positions. SOUTHERN MISS 41-10.

**PREFERRED
North Carolina over Connecticut* by 14
There is a perception that these two programs are on an even footing, with Randy
Edsell and Butch Davis both doing a good job of getting their teams into bowls,
and in the huut for more of the same again. We see a difference, however, as Davis
has been able to recruit better personnel to Chapel Hill, particularly on defense,
where there is an outside chance that every member of the two-deep in the DL will
end up in an NFL training camp. And it is that defense that controls this one. The
Huskies were able to survive offensively last year because of the brilliance of
Donald Brown, who ran for 2,083 yards and 18 TD’s. But without that threat far
too much falls on the shoulders of QB Zach Frazier, who had an awful 6:2 ratio of
interceptions to TD passes as a sophomore, and picked up right where he left off
at Ohio U. last week, throwing three picks despite never trailing for a single snap.
Frazier gets rattled by both the Tar Heel pass rush and the speed of the secondary
here, and those same mistakes happen again. NORTH CAROLINA 30-16.

U.A.B.* over S.M.U. by 22
It has been chic in many pre-season publications to call for S.M.U. to make some
strides in the second season under June Jones, but we do not share any of that optimism.
A program that is off of back-to-back 1-11 campaigns has a long way to go
before they can be competitive, and we are not convinced that Jones is the answer.
Yes, there are some impressive cycles in that resume, and for many years he was
indeed way ahead of the game in terms of the spread passing attack. These days
most defenses see something similar week in and week out, which means that he
will have to win with players, not tactics. The current roster does not bring the
kind of playmakers to open up his playbook yet, while a defense that has allowed
39.8 and 38.2 the past two seasons does not show any reason for optimism. That
means a chance for the drastically improved Blazers to build on that easy win over
Rice, a game in which Joe Webb produced over 400 yards of total offense, and
Webb’s size makes it difficult for that small Mustang defensive front to create any
pressure. U.A.B. 42-20.

Boston College* over Kent State by 10
That opening rout of Northeastern may lead the public to believe that all is well at
Chestnut Hill, but that is hardly the case. A defense that is usually so sound in the
trenches lost 1st (B. J. Raji) and 2nd (Ron Brace) round draft picks in the DL, and
unfortunate circumstances have them without LB’s Mark Herzlich and Mike
McLaughlin, the guys they expected to be the leaders while the young DL matured
on the job. Yet for all of the problems the defense is still the strength of the team,
with the offense still not having a clear #1 QB, a picture that may have actually
grown more muddled on Saturday, when Frank Spaziani used four different signal
callers. Without the ability to strike quickly on offense, and with the defense vulnerable
to the kind of cutbacks that Eugene Jarvis can make behind that veteran
Kent OL, this one does not come easily at all, particularly with the distraction of
that key A.C.C. revenge affair at Clemson that is immediately on deck. Even with
a full focus this would not come easily. BOSTON COLLEGE 24-14.

Tulsa over New Mexico* by 26
There are going to be a lot of growing pains with these Lobos, who are trying to
get new schemes in play on both sides of the ball, and the matchups on defense
look disastrous this week. After getting rocked 56-14 at Tulsa last year, when they
allowed 606 yards, now they not only have new faces throughout the defensive
huddle, but also a crew of coaches that will be seeing the Golden Hurricane playbook
for the first time. That creates an uphill battle, as Tulsa brings a veritable
encyclopedia of offensive options to the table, and the New Mexico confidence will
be at an absolute low ebb after Texas A&M’s uninspiring attack rang up the same
count of 606 yards that Tulsa took them for last year. The Lobos were not able to
stop the run (245 yards at 5.2 per carry) or the pass (32-43 without an interception),
which opens the door for a Tulsa attack that loves to dictate the flow to be
running and passing downhill all evening. And without a ground game of their
own, DeWayne Walker’s team can‘t even work the tempo to try to keep this reasonable.
TULSA 42-16.

NFL

*BEST BET
Green Bay over Chicago by 21
The Pack is Back. No team enjoyed a stronger preseason than Green Bay. In
13 preseason possessions against the Browns,Bills, Cardinals and Titans, the
Packers’ first-string put up nine touchdowns and one field with no
turnovers and only one punt. Green Bay’s No. 1 defense came up with
seven takeaways and forced three punts, while giving up one touchdown
and two field goals. Sure preseason is preseason. Detroit, after all, won all
its preseason games last year and then didn’t win a regular-season contest.
But it isn’t a leap of faith to suggest the Packers are vastly better than their
6-10 mark of a year ago when they lost seven games by four points or less.
Just two years ago the Packers were an overtime win away from reaching
the Super Bowl. Brett Favre would have stayed retired if he knew how good
Aaron Rodgers has become. Rodgers was nearly perfect in preseason with
a 147.9 quarterback rating. Favre’s highest preseason rating, by comparison,
was 93.5 in 1997.The Packers played their finest game of the season
when they annihilated Chicago at home last season, 37-3. Green Bay has
made a smooth transition going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. It helps having
a healthy linebacker Nick Barnett and lineman Cullen *. The Bears
haven’t seen a division foe use a 3-4 alignment since 1994. It’s not good
news for workhorse running back Matt Forte. Jay Cutler gives Chicago its
first true playmaking quarterback since Jim McMahon. Cutler, though, doesn’t
have the receiving weapons he had at Denver. He’s still learning to get
in sync with his new targets.The Bears’ defense has aged considerably since
their Super Bowl appearance of three years ago. It’s not nearly as good.
GREEN BAY 34-13.

BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Denver by 18
Dysfunctional usually applies to the Bengals. This time the word fits the
Broncos better. Denver’s 33-year-old Josh McDaniels has had the bumpiest
ride of any of the first-year head coaches.The Broncos have serious quarterback
problems because McDaniels couldn’t reach an accord with Jay
Cutler.Anointed starter Kyle Orton has a finger injury on his throwing hand
that leaves his status up in the air.Veteran backup Chris Simms is bothered
by a high ankle sprain. So there exists the possibility rookie Tom
Brandstater, a sixth-round draft pick, could be left to start. Star wider receiver
Brandon Marshall isn’t a lock to play either after being suspended during
preseason for insubordination. If this isn’t enough, injuries have also
struck the offense with wideout Jabar Gaffney (broken thumb), running
back Knowshon Moreno (knee) and guard Chris Kuper (ankle) all questionable.
It’s not like the Broncos have a great defense to fall back on.
Denver ranked last in the AFC in 2008 giving up 28 points per game.They
were second from the bottom in total defense, allowing 374.6 yards per
contest, and still haven’t found a nose guard to anchor their 3-4 conversion.
The Bengals will be much improved on offense with Carson Palmer back
behind center. Look for a huge rebound from talented wide receiver Chad
Ochocinco. Running back Cedric Benson has had a training camp to get
comfortable after coming to Cincinnati last October.The Bengals’ defense
really picked up last year under new coordinator Mike Zimmer, finishing
12th in overall defense. That was the Bengals’ best defensive rating since
2001. Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS in opening week during the past four
seasons. CINCINNATI 28-10.

**PREFERRED
**Miami over *Atlanta by 7
Few, if any, expect Miami to duplicate its 11-5 AFC East-winning Division
title of a year ago after going 1-15 two years ago.The Dolphins won’t be
catching teams by surprise and their schedule is far more difficult. But let’s
not underrate the Dolphins.They are a solid,well-coached team that is one
of the best conditioned squads in the NFL. Miami also is one of the most
physical teams in the league, mirroring the mindset of coach Tony Sparano
and Bill Parcells. The Falcons have gotten tougher under Mike Smith, but
they’re still more finesse rather than physical in comparison to the
Dolphins. Atlanta has a suspect secondary that savvy veteran Chad
Pennington can exploit.The Dolphins fly under the radar screen because
they aren’t flashy. They don’t have superstars. Miami does have running
back depth headed by Ronnie Brown and an underrated receiving corps.
The Dolphins were the team that introduced the Wildcat Formation last
year that caught New England and other teams by surprise. Opponents
know that formation now, but the Dolphins still have two of the best players
to execute the Wildcat with Brown and rookie Pat White, an option
quarterback. MIAMI 24-17.

New York Jets over *Houston by 6
Optimism is high in Houston that after seven seasons, the Texans are ready
to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.That optimism is
misplaced.The Texans are decent, but not strong enough to lay this many
points.The Jets are missing a couple of key suspended defensive players –
Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace – but still have enough talent to keep the
Texans from putting up a big score. Defensive guru Rex Ryan will make
sure of that. Ryan’s aggressive Jets finished preseason with 18 sacks.Texans
quarterback Matt Schaub suffered a left ankle injury during preseason. He
may not be 100 percent. Rookie Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has had his
moments. The Jets will take the pressure off Sanchez by staying on the
ground utilizing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to take advantage of
Houston’s weak defensive interior. Adrian Peterson gouged the Texans for
117 yards rushing on 11 carries during preseason. So did New Orleans
backup running back Mike Bell, rushing for 100 yards on 10 carries. The
Texans lack experienced and reliable defensive backs with franchise cornerback
Dunta Robinson (check status) staging a stubborn holdout. NY JETS 23-17.

SPORTS MEMO

TIM TRUSHEL

Best Bet: UTEP +11.5
In 2007, the Jayhawks were unbeaten and faced a one-loss Missouri team for the shot
to play Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship game. They lost 36-28 for their only loss.
That season, while a huge success, was an aberration as the Jayhawks played a weak nonconference
slate, did not face Oklahoma or Texas, and had only four true road games all
year. Last year, with a tougher schedule we saw Kansas slide a bit. This year, they return
all of their key skill position talent and while that is important, having to rebuild an offensive
line with just two starters back and very little depth is more of a concern. The
defense is mediocre and will again allow plenty of points. This week they face UTEP, a
team that was expected to be improved but had troubles in week one with a home loss
to Buffalo. The overall stats indicate that UTEP was competitive, but that doesn’t change
the fact that they trailed 23-7 at home before mounting a comeback. UTEP reached the
Buffalo 20-yard line in the final minutes while trailing 23-17 but a holding penalty followed
by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty ended any hope. They showed that they
wouldn’t quit and with plenty of talent they will be competitive against the Jayhawks.

BRENT CROW

Best Bet: Redskins +6.5
This line is way out of whack if my views on these two teams is correct. I feel that
the Redskins are the better team and will finish ahead of the Giants in the standings
this year barring catastrophic injury. I really do like their defense, and the offense
certainly has better weapons than the Giants, even if Eli Manning is a better
quarterback than Jason Campbell. The Giants offense really missed Plaxico Burress
last year after his injury, and they are relying on a group of young, unproven receivers
this season. The defense has also been plagued by injuries this preseason
and shows some signs of a potential drop off in the near future. For the Redskins,
the addition of Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line should make a tough
defense even better. The offense did not do much in preseason, but I think were
pretty vanilla with the play callings. Jim Zorn didn’t seem to be too concerned or
worried by the preseason results and that lack of production helped push this
number up to nearly a full touchdown. I really don’t think the ‘Skins will need
the points as they start their season out with a straight up win over the Giants.

TEDDY COVERS

Best Bet: Redskins +6.5
The betting marketplace is projecting the Giants to reach the playoffs for a fifth consecutive
season with a season over/under win mark of 10. But this team has undergone
some dramatic changes since the end of last year; changes that won’t make it easy to
win by a touchdown or more in their season opener against the Redskins. New York’s
completely rebuilt receiving corps leaves the passing game extremely limited. They
struggled in the red zone repeatedly in August, setting for field goals instead of touchdowns.
And the Giants have legitimate questions on the defensive side of the ball as
well. In particular, the secondary lacks experience, with three of four starters with three
years of experience or less. The Redskins dramatically upgraded their defensive line
in the offseason with free agent signee Albert Haynesworth and No. 1 draft choice
Bryan Orapko; a duo that should help continue the red zone woes for the G-men. Let’s
not forget that even without that duo, Washington finished the ’08 campaign with
the fouth-rated defense in the NFL. In this week one divisional rivalry, expect New
York to be in a dogfight to win this game outright, let alone by any sort of a margin.

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Browns +4

The Vikings are the sexy pick to have a breakout season. Fundamentally it is hard to argue with
their ability as they are great at running the ball and stopping the run. Add a veteran superstar
quarterback to the mix and now they have a playmaker that can take the offense even further.
Yet while the Vikings made the headlines of the preseason with the signing of Brett Favre, there
are some concerns. Team chemistry and the overall play down the stretch last season indicate
that it is just not that easy. Favre is set in his ways and when he does too much, it can be a detriment.
Will he be able to control those impulses? If he does, it will be a good season. Cleveland
is off a 4-12 season and made a ton of changes. Head coach Eric Mangini was brought in to
turn things around quickly. Only one season removed from a solid campaign, it can be done.
Fixing the offense is critical as they scored just 31 points total in their last six games of the season.
Defensively they were solid as they held the opposition to 17 or fewer points in half their
games. The home field has been a factor as they have played pretty well in the role of the home
underdog. With a new attitude and a better focus on offense, the Browns will be improved.
We expect them to show it right out of the gate and will back them in this underdog spot.

ERIN RYNNING

Best Bet: Minnesota -4.5
Emotion will be at a fever pitch Saturday evening as the Gophers will open their
brand new on-campus stadium against the visiting Falcons. Minnesota will own a
stern talent edge in this contest, while head coach Tim Brewster has done a fine
job in the recruiting department. They own balance on offense with experienced
quarterback Adam Weber and key cog wide receiver Eric Decker, while also owning
capable runners in the backfield. Last week’s game on the road at Syracuse
was rough at times but time will be needed to work through the complex offense
of coordinator Jedd Fisch. The Gophers also have the depth advantage on defense
and the team speed needed to help shut down Air Force’s ground game.
The Falcons exploded last week against outmatched Nicholls State, 72-0. However,
the largest victory in Air Force history will be meaningless when they travel
to open TCF Bank Stadium. Tim Jefferson looks like he’ll be a fine quarterback for
the Falcons at some point, but a lack of big plays should hurt them here on the
road. Look for Gophers to strike early and often in a dominating home victory.

ROB VENO

Best Bet: Panthers Over 43.5
There are a multitude of matchups in this contest that point toward a high scoring
affair. The Philadelphia brand of West Coast offense, which now features total aerial
diversity, seems to be the perfect weapon against this Carolina defense. The quick
hitting screens and slants should offset the Panthers’ determination to pressure the
quarterback while the vertical deep threats can counter when Carolina is on its heels.
The offensive line depth will help the Eagles maintain their offensive prowess should
the starting five still not be able to get on the field together. Carolina allowed 30+ in
five of their final seven games last season and with basically the same defensive crew
back, expect Philadelphia to challenge that number. The Panthers do have a significant
offensive advantage of their own in this contest as their powerful ground game
could potentially steamroll the under-sized Eagles front which will play this season
without run stuffing middle linebacker Stuart Bradley. Once their trademark rushing
attack is established, the passing game can become a positive complement. With no
weather issues standing in the way, expect this game to get up and over the total.

FAIRWAY JAY

Best Bet: Minnesota -4.5
The Gophers pulled out a 23-20 overtime win at Syracuse and now return home to
begin a new era with the opening of TCF Bank Stadium on the UM campus. Momentum
and motivation figures to be on Minnesota’s side with improvement projected
following a less than impressive opening week performance. The combination of
quarterback Adam Weber and All-Big Ten wide receiver Eric Decker hooked up nine
times for over 180 yards last week and should have more success with time to throw
and comfort in the new offensive system. But also expect more power running to be
on display this week by the Gophers against the smaller 3-4 front of Air Force. The
Falcons blasted Nicholls State last week and quarterback Tim Jefferson is a nice dualthreat.
The option offense appears in-sync early season yet Minnesota can counter
with quick strike plays and a sound running game. With Air Force’s opening Mountain
West play next week at New Mexico, it should only add to all of the positives coming
from the home side. We seem to be getting a small discount based on what went down
last week with both schools. Regardless, we expect a big win from the home side.

ANDREW LANGE

Best Bet: Virginia +11.5
Last week, Virginia lost to William & Mary 26-14 and much of the same pathetic offense
that we’ve come to know and love in Charlottesville was in full display. Now a large part of
the blame rests of the fact that a new offense is in the works with former Bowling Green
head coach Gregg Brandon taking over as offensive coordinator. That and UVA coughed
up the ball seven times! But with everyone calling for head coach Al Groh’s job and the
Cavs destine to go winless according to the media, I see no better time to strike than now.
Keep in mind, after starting 1-3 last year, pathetic UVA ripped off four straight including two
wins over ranked opponents. TCU is not going to be as good as they were last year after
returning only four defensive starters, three of which to the NFL. Offensively, the Horned
Frogs typically get the job done but don’t ignore the fact that in 2008 they returned four
starters on the offensive line, where as just two are back this year. Virginia’s defense has
always been good, allowing less than 21 ppg the last three years combined. Against Boise,
Oklahoma and Utah last season, TCU scored all of 37 points. Laying double-digits on the
road for your season opener seems like a little much and that is why I am on Virginia.

HELMUT

Best Bet: Washington -20.5
It appears that the Huskies are a completely different team this season after going 0-12
in 2008. I couldn’t help but notice the improved attitude and excitement with this team
under new head coach Steve Sarkisian. The offense was much more crisp and had little
to no trouble moving the ball on what figures to be an outstanding LSU defense. One
of the biggest reasons for the offensive improvement was the return of quarterback
Jake Locker who missed the last eight games in 2008. The Huskies rolled up 478 yards
of total offense, which was 100+ yards more than the offense gained in any game last
season. Statistically the Vandals were one of the worst defenses in the nation last season.
It took them all the way to week nine before they held a I-A opponent to less than
42 points. They looked good in their season opener but I will discount that effort as it
came against a New Mexico State team that is in complete rebuilding mode. It has to be
somewhat concerning that the Vandals’ offense generated only 21 points against a defense
that was one of the worst in the nation last season and returned just three starters.
The Huskies should be able to break their 14-game losing streak with a blowout.

MARTY OTTO

Best Bet: Oregon -11
The Ducks will have to dig deep but I expect an inspired effort for their home opener
this week. Yes, the loss to Boise was quite disheartening but a new week and new
opponent brings a big opportunity to start over. The defense played pretty well last
week despite being a question mark heading into the season. They held a good Boise
ground game to just 2.4 ypc. But that performance is largely lost in the hype of the
offensive struggles and the punch heard round the world. Oregon’s offense will be
fine here even without Blount, because Purdue’s defense is just not very good. They
allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to Toledo last week! Look for the rushing attack
from Oregon to open up the pass as the game rolls on. Remember, Purdue’s front seven
gave up over 300 yards on the ground in the meeting last season and allowed five
different opponents to rush for more than 5.0 yards per carry in 2008. Had Oregon
won last week -- or even a close loss -- they would easily be laying 20 or more points in
this spot. It also helps that Purdue came away with an easy spread covering victory in
which they scored 52 points. Take advantage of the discount and play the home team.

Pointwise Newsletter

College Football Key Releases (2-4, 33%, "1" rated selections 0-2 last week)
1--Auburn (-14') over Mississippi State 38-13
1--South Carolina (+7) over Georgia 17-15
2--TCU (-10') over Virginia 30-10
2--S. Mississippi (-15') over UCF 41-17
3--Vanderbilt (+15) over LSU 24-30
4--East Carolina (+5') over West Virginia 26-20
5--USC (-6') over Ohio State 31-17
5--Clemson (+5') over Georgia Tech (THURSDAY) 20-19

NFL Key Releases...
3--Cincinnati (-4') over Denver 30-20
3--New England (-11) over Buffalo 31-13
4--Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee (THURSDAY) 20-10
4--Seattle (-8') over St. Louis 30-16
5--Carolina (+1) over Philadelphia 24-20

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 27-24
3*South Miss. 37-16
3*Missouri 45-17
2*Tulsa 42-20
2*Iowa 34-20
2* Lousiana Tech (+) 23-26
Underdog Play San Jose +13 Outright 24-23

4* Dallas 23-9
3* Cinn. 33-17
2* Detroit (+) 17-27
2* Minn. 23-9

3* KC Under 37
3* Eagles Under 44
3* Cowboys Under 40
2* Denver Over 43
2* Jets Over 43

Power Rating Play Cinn.
Syatem Play 49's

Playbook

NCAA

5* Air Force (+) over Minnesota by 11
4* UAB over SMU by 21
3* Auburn over Miss. St. by 24
Upset GOW (lost last week) Central Mich. over Mich St by 1

NFL

5* NY Giants over Washington by 17
4* San Francisco (+) over Arizona by 6
3* Denver (+) over Cincinnati by 7

NFL Totals

5* Redskins/Giants UNDER
4* Vikings/Browns UNDER
3* Dolphins/Falcons UNDER

LOGICAL APPROACH

2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 2 Games through September 14, 2009

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: OHIO STATE + 7 over Usc - What a difference one game can make! For most of the summer the advance line for this contest was USC by 3. Then USC manhandles San Jose State as expected, 56-3. Meanwhile OSU barely survives against a well disciplined, well prepared Navy team, 31-27 and the line jumps more than a FG. This is a HUGE game for Ohio State as they seek to avenge last season's 35-3 loss at USC. This time it's USC with the rookie QB making his first road start in hostile environs. The Buckeyes were looking ahead last week and showed little versus Navy and although it almost cost them, there's no reason for Buckeye backers to panic. Most teams have trouble preparing for the Navy offense and had OSU not been putting in more time preparing for USC we might have well seen the one sided game many expected. USC is the better team and deserves to be favored. But there are some flaws on both sides of the ball the San Jose was unable to expose. Yet the results of the first week give plenty of ammo for those who think Ohio State will be overmatched again this season. But not so fast. Ohio State has been pointing towards this game all summer and while they may not have the talent to prevail they will give USC all they can handle. And will validate the number that was posted all summer. USC wins but by just 24-21.

Other Featured College Selections

South Carolina + 7 over GEORGIA - South Carolina won their opener on the strength of their defense against North Carolina State. Georgia's offense was pretty much held in check at Oklahoma State but the 'Dawgs' defense played well against the high powered and experienced OSU offense. This series has been low scoring and competitive over the past decade with 6 of 10 decided by a TD or less. Only once has the winner of the game scored more than 24 points and neither team has scored more than 20 points in any of the last 5 meetings. That makes getting a full TD extremely attractive especially when the favored team is still working out the kinks in their offense as Georgia replaces a pair of Top 12 NFL draft choices (QB Stafford and RB Moreno). Though Carolina coach Spurrier is noted for being an offensive innovator he also has long recognized the value of an athletic, speedy defense. That's his strength here. Georgia wins but by just 17-13.

Louisiana Tech + 7 over NAVY - Louisiana Tech was outclassed by a talented Auburn team that greatly underachieved in 2008. Navy was well prepared for their battle at Ohio State and nearly caught the Buckeyes at the end, failing when their attempted 2 point conversion was returned for a deuce the other way in OSU's 31-27 win. Both teams step down in class here but Tech has the better athletes. Next week they play regional FCS foe Nicholls State while Navy has a big revenge game at Pitt. La Tech may be the second best team in the WAC behind Boise and the program is well coached as noted last week. True, Navy did show more balance than expected last week against Ohio State, completing 9 of 13 for 156 yds. But that was against a most disinterested defense. With both teams off of expected losses each will want to avoid an 0-2 start and should give maximum effort here. In such instances it's best to side with the more talented team. And it's even more attractive when that team is made the underdog. Louisiana Tech pulls the upset, winning 31-23.

Virginia + 11 over Tcu - Losses can provide powerful motivation. Embarrassing losses can take that motivation to a higher level. That's where Virginia is this week after losing to FCS foe William & Mary 26-14 on their home field. It was their first loss to a non-FBS team in more than 20 years. Virginia has been a decent program for much of this decade although did drop from 9-4 in 2007 to 5-7 last season. TCU was one of two teams not to play last week and that can be a disadvantage here as they see live game action for the first time against a team having already played. TCU has been a solid program at the mid-major level all decade and has fared well on occasion when stepping up in class against BCS competition. Again, Virginia's loss last week adds great value to this line. TCU wins with defense but is nothing more than average on the offensive side of the football. Virginia has athletes every bit as talented as TCU's. Both teams have solid coaches with good track records. TCU's opened well on the road recently but asking them to win by a moderate margin when they don't clearly outclass the opponent is asking a lot. TCU wins but by just 27-21.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
GEORGIA TECH - 5 over Clemson CONNECTICUT + 5 over North Carolina
East Carolina + 6 over WEST VIRGINIA Iowa - 6 ½ over IOWA STATE
Mississippi State + 14 ½ over AUBURN Byu - 17 over TULANE
OREGON -12 over Purdue MICHIGAN + 3 ½ over Notre Dame
BUFFALO + 10 ½ over Pittsburgh Air Force + 4 over MINNESOTA
INDIANA - 1 over Western Michigan Bowling Green + 19 over MISSOURI
Kansas - 11 over UTEP Central Florida + 15 over SOUTHERN MISS
LSU - 14 ½ over Vanderbilt Tulsa - 17 ½ over NEW MEXICO
SAN JOSE STATE + 13 ½ over Utah Oregon State - 7 over UNLV
Arkansas State + 23 over NEBRASKA Troy + 36 ½ over FLORIDA

The Rest (Opinions) Colorado - 4 over TOLEDO [2] Syracuse + 29 over PENN STATE
VIRGINIA TECH - 20 over Marshall Central Michigan + 14 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Eastern Michigan + 18 ½ over NORTHWESTERN Duke + 2 over ARMY
WISCONSIN - 8 ½ over Fresno State WAKE FOREST - 3 over Stanford
Ucla + 8 ½ over TENNESSEE Texas - 34 over WYOMING
Idaho + 21 over WASHINGTON ALA-BIRMINGHAM - 12 over Smu
BOSTON COLLEGE - 21 over Kent State TEXAS TECH - 27 ½ over Rice
Washington State + 2 over Hawaii OKLAHOMA STATE - 15 ½ over Houston
BOISE STATE - 36 ½ over Miami Ohio Florida International + 33 ½ over ALABAMA
WESTERN KENTUCKY + 25 over South Florida Ohio U - 3 over NORTH TEXAS
Memphis + 1 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE Kansas State - 8 over UL LAFAYETTE

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HOUSTON - 4 ½ over N Y Jets - Jets begin season with rookie QB Mark Sanchez running the offense and rookie head coach Rex Ryan roaming the sidelines. Though Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco proved otherwise last season, rookie quarterbacks generally struggle. Houston starts the season with great expectations as both their offense and defense are maturing well. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch last season to finish 8-8 after hurricane issues wreaked havoc with their early season schedule. They have an explosive offense and an improving defense that should play aggressively against the rookie QB. The Texans are 0-3 lifetime vs the Jets but this is both a new season and a new era. Houston takes the first step in showing they can indeed be a challenger for the Playoffs by defeating a team they should defeat. Houston wins 28-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections

Philadelphia - 1 over CAROLINA - Despite appearing in just one Super Bowl, under coach Andy Reid the Eagles have become an elite team, having now been to the Playoffs 7 times in the last 9 seasons, including 5 trips to the NFC Title game. NFC East teams have dominated fellow conference foes outside their Division in recent seasons. The Eagles are 24-12 ATS vs NFC teams outside the East since 2003, including 3 regular season wins and covers against Carolina. True, in 2003 the Panthers did knock Philly out of the Playoffs. Philly's defense should have success against aging Carolina QB Jake Delhomme while Eagle QB Donovan McNabb has added talent and depth at RB and WR. The Eagles have also excelled on the road with just one losing season away from home over the past 9 seasons. Philadelphia wins 26-17.

Dallas - 6 over TAMPA BAY - Dallas has the talent to still be playing in February. They enter this season without the burden of being Conference or even Division favorites. QB Tony Romo has plenty of supporting targets and may not miss T.O. as much as some expect. Owens dropped many a catchable pass in key spots last season. The defense has shown steady improvement the past two seasons. Tampa is a team in transition with a new coach. They just fired their offensive coordinator as training camp was winding down and they have issues at QB and an unsettled RB situation. The defense is aging and the Buccs allowed a half more yard per rush (4.3) last season than they did a season earlier. It's always tough to lay points on the road early in the season but the Cowboys have too many edges on both sides of the ball to ignore. They do have a tough home game against the Giants on deck so they cannot afford to give away a winnable game here against a team in transition at their most vulnerable time of the season. Dallas wins 24-13.

San Francisco + 6 ½ over ARIZONA - Arizona has a major edge at QB with Kurt Warner but the 49ers have the better rushing attack with Frank Gore. Both teams have defenses that are underrated as each has fared well vs the rush in recent seasons. Arizona could suffer Super Bowl letdown as many runnerups have over this decade. Niner coach Mike Singletary has infused his team with the mental toughness that made him such a great player in his days with the Bears . They made great strides after he took over in the middle of 2008. For the season the weak San Francisco offense improved 74 yards per game over 2007. These teams have generally played very competitive games over the years with 6 of the last 7 and 10 of 13 decided by a TD or less. We should see the line rise to a RD by kickoff and an outright upset would not surprise. San Francisco wins 27-24.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
PITTSBURGH - 6 over Tennessee [1] Miami + 4 over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Denver Washington + 6 ½ over N Y GIANTS
Chicago + 3 ½ over GREEN BAY NEW ENGLAND - 11 over Buffalo [4]

The Rest (Opinions) Kansas City + 13 over BALTIMORE Minnesota - 4 over CLEVELAND
Jacksonville + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS - 13 over Detroit
SEATTLE - 8 ½ over St Louis San Diego - 9 ½ over OAKLAND [4]

Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations)
Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 35 Miami/Atlanta UNDER 43
Detroit/New Orleans OVER 48 ½ Dallas/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
San Francisco/Arizona OVER 46 Washington/N Y Giants UNDER 37 ½

Money Line Recommendations
College CONNECTICUT Duke Louisiana Tech Air Force
Pro Miami Philadelphia Dallas Chicago

Red Sheet 9/10--9/14

AUBURN 41 - Mississippi State 13 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 15, and is now minus 14½.
That's right, the Tigers also graced this spot on LW's Red Sheet, with a solid 11-pt cover the
result. Check a resounding 37-13 rout, while amassing 556 yds (311-yd edge) vs a LaTech
team which returned 16 starters from its '08 bowl-winning squad. That's a far cry from a
year ago, when Auburn ranked 104th in the nation on offense. New HC Chizik, along with a
bevy of quality assistants has turned this normal power around. As we've written before: a
team on a mission. 'Dogs hardly the team to curb this momentum.
RATING: AUBURN 89

SO MISSISSIPPI 44 - Central Florida 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 14, and is now minus 15.
Looks like the same old story for UCF, despite returning 10 offensive starters. Ranked as
the worst offensive team in the nation in '08, the Knights managed only 14 FDs & 282 total
yds last week, in barely getting by Samford, 28-24, at home, no less. Eagles also return a
batch of "O" starters (9), & nearly match that with 8 veterans on "O". Led Alcorn, 35-0 at the
half last week, & held a 398-62 RY edge at game's end. Six straight wins, five straight
covers, & check 41:56-18:04 time edge over Knights LY. Highly doable spread.
RATING: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 89

TEXAS TECH 55 - Rice 14 - (7:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 25, and is now minus 27. Not the
best of openers for the Raiders, who would normally take no prisoners vs the likes of No
Dakota. But a 405-PY effort from new QB Potts is an indication that this latest Leach edition
has the potential to keep recent explosive efforts in tact. Owls were spectacular in '08,
ranking 10th in the land in scoring & total "O". But the departure of record-setting QB Clement
(44 TDs) puts too much pressure on newcomers. Cannot offset lacking "D".
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88

TENNESSEE 34 - Ucla 13 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 10, and is now minus 8. As you know,
the Vols sat in this exact same position a week ago, & came through with a 63-7 romper over
lowly WesternKy (26-pt cover). Much like the Auburn Tigers above, who are in off a rare
down campaign, UT is under new leadership, with a renewed dedication. So scores to
settle, beginning with Bruins, who won in OT last year, so absolutely no peek ahead to new
week's game with Florida. Host team is 30-13 ATS in Bruin contests. Ditto.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88

East Carolina 26 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is now minus
6½. Here we go again. The Pirates have enjoyed superb success vs the Mounties in recent
years, smothering WVa's highly potent overland game, in the process. As we wrote earlier,
just 127, 153, & 179 RYs for Mounties in 3 of last 4 vs ECU (18, 3½, 28½ pt Pirate covers).
WVa is now without the blazing White at QB, & has yet to top 35 pts under Stewart, who
replaced Rodriguez LY. Call yet another series upset for the Pirates.
RATING: EAST CAROLINA 88

GREEN BAY 37 - Chicago 24 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 3, and is now minus 3½.
One of the most misleading records of LY, belonged to these Packers, whose 6-10 log
featured no less than a franchise-record 7 losses by 4 pts or less, while losing their final 5
games. Can't forget nearly making it to the Super Bowl just a year earlier, as well as the
development of Rodgers, who finished behind only Warner & Brees among NFC QBs (28
TDs & >4,000 yds). Took the Bears by 34 here LY, with a 200-yd edge. Cutler, of course, is
a decided improvement under center, for Chicago, but we'll give the TD spot.
RATING: GREEN BAY 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): SoCaro, Utah, IowaSt, Nebraska -- NFL: Bengals, Patriots, Chargers

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Washington (-18 to -21); Tulsa (-14½ to -17½); Wake
Forest (Pick to -2½); LSU (-12 to -14½); KansasSt (5 to -7½); UCLA (+10 to +8); Texas Tech (-25 to -27);
BostonCollege (-25 to -27); WashSt (+3½ to +1½); SouthernCalifornia (-4½ to -6½); IowaSt (+8 to +6½);
Missouri (-16½ to -18) - NFL: Baltimore (-9 to -13); Philadelphia (+1 to -1); Dallas (-4 to -6); Sn Diego (-7½ to
-9½); Pittsburgh (-5 to -6); Cincinnati (-3½ to -4½); Seattle (-7½ to -8½)

- TIME CHANGES: No changes thru
Wednesday

- KEY INJURIES: Alabama RB Ingram (knee) probable; BYU RB Unga (hamstring) ??; Clemson
RB Spiller (hamstring) probable; Georgia OT Sturdivant (knee) out for season; Iowa RB Hampton (knee)
out for season; Kansas WR Briscoe (suspension) probable; Michigan RB Minor (ankle) probable; MississippiSt
RB Dixon (suspension) probable); Oklahoma QB Bradford (shoulder) out 2 to 4 weeks; Oregon RB Blount
(suspension) out for season; OregonSt QB Moevao (shoulder) doubtful; PennSt LB Bowman (ankle) ??;
SouthCarolina LB Paulk (knee) out for season; SoMississippi WR Brown (leg) ??; SoFlorida RB Ford (suspension)
doubtful; Toledo RB Williams (suspension) doubtful; Utah DE Misi (back) probable; Vanderbilt RB
Hawkins (foot) ??; VaTech RB Evans (ACL) out for season - NFL: Arizona WR Boldin (hamstring) ??; Atlanta
QB Ryan (Sickness) probable; Cincinnati QB Palmer (ankle) probable; Denver QB Orton (finger) probable;
Denver WR Marshall (suspension) probable; Houston QB Schaub (ankle) probable; Jacksonville RB Jones-
Drew (ankle) probable; KC QB Cassel (knee) doubtful; NwEngland QB Brady (shoulder) probable; NewOrleans
RB Thomas (knee) ??; StLouis QB Bulger (finger) probable...

HQ Report

5* NORTHWESTERN (-17) over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 34
3* NORTE DAME (-4) over MICHIGAN by 14
3*CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+14) over MICHIGAN STATE
3* FRESNO STATE (+9) OVER WISCONSIN

HQ UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK
*LA TECH (+7) over NAVY

HQ TOTAL RECALL OVER /UNDER
SINGLE PLAY --UCLA vs TENNESSEE PLAY OVER

A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
SYSTEM PLAY --AIR FORCE (+4) over MINNESOTA

CKO

11 *IOWA STATE over Iowa
*IOWA STATE 23 - Iowa 16

10 VANDERBILT over *Lsu
VANDERBILT 20 - *Lsu 23

10 CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *Michigan St.
CENT. MICHIGAN 24 - *Michigan St. 28

10 *PENN STATE over Syracuse
*PENN STATE 45 - Syracuse 3

NINE-RATED GAMES

TENNESSEE (-7½) vs. Ucla—Only UCLA’s respected pointspread record as a dog (22-7 L5Ys) is keeping this
payback game from being rated higher...SOUTHERN MISS (-16) vs. Ucf—Golden Eagles on roll offensively & defensively since beginning of last November; UCF doesn’t have the firepower to keep up...NEBRASKA (-23½) vs. Arkansas State—Husker starters played little more than a half in dominating 49-3 victory last week over Florida Atlantic; Ark. State 1-6 vs. the line on the road

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

5* Air Force (+) over Minnesota by 11
4* UAB over SMU by 21
3* Auburn over Miss. St. by 24
Upset GOW (lost last week) Central Mich. over Mich St by 1