Thanks Ace....even though I do read...I really like your summary .Thanks so much
Gang
I have been a follower of this newsletter thread for years. I truly apppreciate everything that is done by Shaz + to consistently fill our eyes with substance that requires our own filtering to make better pick choices. This is my mid season thank you to Shazman for what he does here for all.
THANK YOU !!!
What may appear to all as a simple copy and paste of a download link is not always the case. Everything takes time when you do things in an organized way. Shaz has been consistent with supplying all the newsletters during the week along with the records of the selections. I am sure they will all appear without our asking for them. Give him the chance to deliver on his terms and not make him scramble.
No one needs pressure if/when doing things from the goodness of their heart.
p.s. - this season the majority of the newsletters are stroking, so enjoy them for what their worth. I love them even when their bad.
THX AGAIN SHAZ !
I totally agree Bim,,,,,and I do appreciate everything Shaz does. He's the best. And so is everyone else on this site. They have given me so much great information. I haven't seen you name come up that much. Do you have any info to make things easier for me please and thank you..
YES SHAZ IS THE BEST 🙂
Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear continued his impressive run with a third straight perfect week (9-0 in that span). The only game the guys missed last week was Middle Tennessee-Rice, a game that took two overtimes to decide. Will the hot streak continue?
Here is your guide to Week 9 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (2-1 last week, 14-8 overall)
The Bear (3-0, 13-7)
The plays
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-14, 42.5) at Kentucky Wildcats
Stanford Steve: Love the spot here for the Dawgs, coming off a bye after getting shut out in the second half versus Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The defense will travel to Lexington for this one, and on top of that, UK looks as if it might be starting Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood for the first time this season at QB. We'll lay the points here with Kirby Smart's squad.
Pick: Georgia -14 (Georgia 34, Kentucky 18)
Memphis Tigers at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-7, 55)
The Bear: The Bearcats were never really threatened last week at SMU, as the Ponies helped UC with a lot of dropped passes, but credit the UC defense for holding SMU to 13 points and 290 yards. The final score was a bit deceiving; the Bearcats scored twice late, including a 91-yard TD run by QB Desmond Ridder. This week will be another tough ask against a team that beat Cincinnati twice last year and might have an even more dynamic offense than SMU. Defense is optional for the Tigers, but I expect their offense will at least keep them in the game, even against a solid defense like Cincinnati's.
Pick: Memphis +7
No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 45.5)
The Bear: Kansas State is the ranked road underdog against an unranked team, and that immediately sounds sirens in my mind. Then you take a look at the K-State game log and despite the 4-1 mark, the Wildcats have outgained only one team this year (Kansas) and have been extremely successful in the turnover department, committing only two and with a plus-7 edge this season. At some point that probably will regress. Bring a backup QB into play and this feels like a good spot to back the Mountaineers, who lost a game in Lubbock last week in which they outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but really struggled on third down (4-for-16).
Pick: West Virginia -3.5
No. 20 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-3, 60) at Georgia State Panthers
The Bear: That was a really nice win last week by the Chants, as the defense completely dominated in the second half to thwart the upset bid. Problem is, the offense will have to play better this week against a Georgia State team that has scored better than 30 points every game and very easily could be undefeated itself (lost in OT to Louisiana and late to Arkansas State). The ranked team as the short favorite probably will take most of the action -- that's my guess -- but I think Shawn Elliott's team is the right side here.
Pick: Georgia State +3
Rice Owls at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-1.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: Plenty going on in this one. Rice is off its first loss of the season in its first game of the season, which ended in wild fashion. We've all seen it; no reason to bring it up again (OK, quadruple doink). The thought is that transfer QB Seth Collins will be better and smarter in his second start compared to his first. On the other side, the Eagles are on their third head coach of the season and have had many obstacles to overcome, most notably multiple games canceled because of positive COVID-19 tests. It won't be pretty, but we'll fly with the Owls again here.
Pick: Rice +1.5 (Rice 31, Southern Miss 21)
The Bear's underdogs to play on money line round robin/parlays/straight
Georgia State +115
Memphis +210
Illinois +220
Northwestern +120
Auburn +120
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $85.77
Tulsa -775
Michigan -3000
Notre Dame -1300
Duke -350
BYU -4500
Louisiana -800
Ole Miss -700
Stanford Steve's 3-team, 9-point teaser
We like all three underdogs, so why not take some more points with all of them?
Michigan State +33.5
Georgia State +11.5
Rutgers +20
Bear Bytes
Ranked on the road vs. unranked teams
• Ranked teams on the road vs. unranked teams are just 9-17 ATS this season. Last year they went 51-40-1 ATS.
Kansas State in tough spot at West Virginia
• Dating to 2017, there have been 13 instances of a team ranked outside the top 15 as an underdog of four points or less on the road vs. an unranked team. Those 13 teams are 2-11 SU and ATS. Kansas State falls into this category this week.
Michigan a big favorite
• This would be the second time under Jim Harbaugh that the Wolverines were favored by at least 24 points over Michigan State. The other time was in 2016, when Michigan beat Michigan State 32-23 as a 24-point favorite.
Auburn thrives as home underdog
• Over the past five years, Auburn has been a home underdog six times. The Tigers have covered five of the six and won four outright.
2019: vs. No. 5 Alabama (-3.5), Auburn won by 3
2019: vs. No. 5 Georgia (-3), lost by 7
2017: vs. No. 1 Alabama (-5), won by 12
2017: vs. No. 2 Georgia (-2.5), won by 23
2016: vs. No. 18 LSU (-3), won by 5
2016: vs. No. 2 Clemson (-8), lost by 6
Penn State in rare spot vs. Ohio State
• The Buckeyes were 4-1 ATS as a road favorite last year under Ryan Day. The only game they failed to cover was at Rutgers when they were a 52-point favorite.
• James Franklin teams are 7-1 ATS with three outright wins and two one-point losses in their past eight games as a 'dog. His teams have been a double-digit home underdog four times and he has won once outright and has two other losses by a TD or less. This is the first time since the 2016 upset over Ohio State that Penn State has been in this spot.
• Franklin-coached teams' past eight games as an underdog: 2019 at Ohio State (-20.5), lost by 11; 2018 at Michigan (-12), lost by 35; 2018 vs. Ohio State (-3.5), lost by 1; 2017 at Ohio State (-7), lost by 1; 2016 vs. USC (-7), lost by 3; 2016 vs. Wisconsin (-2), won by 7; 2016 vs. Ohio State (-19), won by 3; 2016 vs. Maryland (-2), won by 24.
• Franklin-coached teams as a double-digit home underdog: 2016 vs. Ohio State (-19), won by 3; 2014 vs. Michigan (-13.5), lost by 24; 2014 vs. Ohio State (-14), lost by 7; 2011 vs. Georgia (-12), lost by 5.
Indiana (at Rutgers) struggles as road favorite
• Dating to 2016, Indiana has been a road favorite nine times. The Hoosiers are 1-7-1 ATS in those nine games.
Illinois (vs. Purdue) in good position?
• Last year, the Illini were 3-0 ATS with one outright win and a four-point loss as a 13.5-point dog as a home underdog.
Ignore the record
• Over the past 10 years, there have been nine teams 1-5 or worse favored over a team .500 or better. Those nine teams are 7-2 ATS. Dating to 1978, only three times has a team 1-5 or worse been at least a nine-point favorite over a .500 or better team. Favorites won and covered all three of those games. Duke (1-5) is a 9.5-point favorite over Charlotte (2-2).
Lookahead warning?
• Clemson and Notre Dame are huge favorites this week. Do they sleepwalk to wins ahead of their meeting in South Bend next week?
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 10 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear's three-week run of perfection (9-0) came to an end last week, but he's still on a 10-2 hot streak. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 10 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (1-1 last week, 15-9 overall)
The Bear (1-2, 14-9)
The plays
No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-5.5, 51.5) at No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Stanford Steve: Since 1999, the Irish have lost 19 of 20 games to AP top-5 teams. But I am here to tell you: This time, they will win. First off, Notre Dame has won 22 straight at home. And now you have a true freshman quarterback making his first road start versus a defense that has more talent than the defense that QB played against last week. On the other side of the ball, I think Brian Kelly will have a run-heavy game plan and QB Ian Book will keep the Irish in manageable situations, especially on third down. I expect the Irish to run the ball as much as possible and keep the Clemson offense on the sideline. Notre Dame money line!
Pick: Notre Dame ML +190 (Notre Dame 27, Clemson 25)
No. 8 Florida Gators at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5)
The Bear: Maybe this will be the year the Gators knock off Georgia, but until they do, I'm going to continue to back the Bulldogs, especially at a discounted number. In the past three seasons, Georgia has won by 20 points per game and outgained the Gators by 140 yards per game. Just four of 31 Gators drives reached the Georgia red zone. Yes, there are some concerns about the Bulldogs' offense; Stetson Bennett has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. But the expected return of Georgia wide receiver George Pickens against a poor secondary should produce some big plays. And the best unit on the field remains the Georgia defense.
Pick: Georgia -3
No. 23 Michigan Wolverines (-3, 54) at No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers
The Bear: Indiana has been a great story, but if you dig a little deeper than the W-L record, you'll find a team that averaged 2.7 yards per carry against Rutgers and didn't have 350 total yards for the game. This is a team that was badly outgained by Penn State and probably shouldn't have won that game, either. It's a team that has been the beneficiary of three turnovers in both games. Credit the Hoosiers for doing what they needed to do to win, but Michigan hasn't turned the ball over this year and offensively has put up 450 yards in both games. Yes, the Wolverines' defense gave up some big plays through the air last week, but I get the sense the Hoosiers will be a public 'dog as a ranked team at home versus a team that just suffered a crushing defeat to a rival. I'll back the Maize and Blue here.
Pick: Michigan -3
Kansas Jayhawks at No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (-38, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: The Sooners might get to the total themselves.
Pick: Over 63.5 (Oklahoma 61, Kansas 17)
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 20 USC Trojans (-10.5, 58.5)
The Bear: I'm bullish on USC in the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans are 21-4 over the past five years versus the Pac-12 South, and it appears the Sun Devils could be their toughest competition in the South. It has been tough to back the Trojans lately as a big favorite, but I like the spot for them. I sense people will be attracted to the underdog, but given the Sun Devils' personnel losses, I'm not sure they are the right side. I like the hire of defensive coordinator Todd Orlando by Clay Helton. I like QB Kedon Slovis. I like Southern California's wide receivers. And I like the Trojans here.
Pick: USC -10.5
No. 25 Liberty Flames at Virginia Tech Hokies (-14.5, 67.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams average about 38 points per game on offense. Liberty is the ranked squad, but the Flames haven't seen an offense like this. In fact, the Flames are fresh off giving up 35 to Southern Miss and 21 to an awful Syracuse team. Points will be plentiful. Take the over.
Pick: Over 67.5 (Virginia Tech 45, Liberty 31)
Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions (-25, 63)
Stanford Steve: The last time Penn State started the year 0-2 was the same year James Franklin started 0-2, and that was when he was coaching at Vanderbilt. The Terps showed some life last week in a wild comeback to beat Minnesota. These two coaches don't like each other, so the thought is there will be plenty of fireworks and points scored. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 63 (Penn State 45, Maryland 28)
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Boise State +125
Washington +105
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $119
SMU -850
Coastal Carolina -1000
Georgia State -1000
Iowa State -600
USC -380
Memphis -1000
Bear Bytes
Ranked favorites on a roll
• There are four ranked matchups this weekend. This season, favorites are 13-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in ranked matchups. The two losers are SMU (vs. Cincinnati) and Florida (at Texas A&M).
Michigan at Indiana
• This is the first time since 1988 that Michigan is favored by less than seven points versus Indiana. That year, No. 20 Michigan defeated No. 14 Indiana 31-6 as a 6.5-point favorite. Dating back to 1978, this is the closest point spread between these two schools. That 6.5-point spread is the previous low.
BYU at Boise State
• This is just the second time in the past 15 years that the Broncos are a home underdog in the regular season. The other instance was as a 2.5-point underdog in 2018 prior to a 24-17 win over Fresno State.
Liberty at Virginia Tech
• This is the first time a team 6-0 or better is a double-digit underdog to a team with two losses since 2002, when 7-0 Notre Dame was a 10.5-point 'dog to 5-2 Florida State and won 34-24. The only other time a team 6-0 or better was a double-digit 'dog to a two-loss team was in 1996, when 9-0 Army lost 42-17 to 6-2 Syracuse as an 18.5-point underdog.
Houston at Cincinnati
• The Cougars have failed to cover in each of their three games as an underdog this season. But amazingly, Houston has covered 10 consecutive games as a double-digit underdog -- three under Dana Holgorsen, one under Major Applewhite, three under Tom Herman and three under Tony Levine. Houston won four of those games outright.
Washington at Cal
• The Bears are 1.5-point favorites over Washington. Cal has upset the Huskies each of the past two campaigns, as a 13.5-point 'dog and a 12.5-point 'dog, respectively.
Clemson at Notre Dame
•This would be the first time since 2017 against Auburn that Clemson is less than a 7-point favorite in a regular-season game. That year, the Tigers were 6-point favorites over Auburn and won 14-6.
• In the past 11 regular-season matchups between top-5 teams, underdogs are 8-3 ATS.
• Notre Dame has now been a home underdog five times since 2014. The Irish won every previous game outright (2018: +3 vs. Michigan, won 24-17; 2016 +1 vs. Miami, won 30-27; 2015: +2 vs. Georgia Tech, won 30-22; 2014: +2.5 vs. Stanford, won 17-14).
South Alabama at Coastal Carolina
• This would be the biggest favorite the Chanticleers have been versus an FBS opponent. Last year, Coastal was a 17-point favorite over UMass and won 62-28.
Air Force at Army
• Dating back to 2016, underdogs are 11-1 ATS with seven outright wins in the past 12 games between two academies.
Miami at NC State
• Top-12 teams are 10-26-1 ATS this season as double-digit favorites over unranked opponents (4-19 away from home).
Texas A&M at South Carolina
• Will Muschamp knows how to keep the alumni happy. He is 3-0 ATS this season versus ranked teams and 7-2 ATS versus ranked teams dating back to 2018, all coming as an underdog (two outright wins).
Gold Sheet once one of the best was just killing me this year so had to jump off their picks. NCAA oh my! W7-L24
When the NCAAF have all had some games under ther belts, it will be simpler to have any semi worthy opinions.
For NFL - I'll share when I believe in something. Have faith.