Tuesday 11/10/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL & NCAAF games
Sports Reporter
^^^Seems to be a nice fade so far^^^
Newsletter Tracking (through 11/09/2020)
The grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
CKO (we didn't get CKO again this week)
11* (0-2)
10* (3-5)
o/u (2-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (22-19-1)
NFL Best Bets (19-16-1)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
"Top Play" (4-4)
Upset pick (5-4)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-4)
Awesome Angle (6-4)
Incredible Stat (2-5)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (4-5)
4* (7-2)
3* (4-4-1)
Pointwise NCAA
1* (9-5)
2* (2-5)
3* (5-4)
4* (3-7-1)
5* (3-7)
Pointwise NFL (0-5 overall this week)
3* (3-6)
4* (10-8)
5* (8-10)
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (2-6)
3* (10-5)
2* (5-4)
Underdog Play of the Week (5-4)
Tech Play of the Week (1-2)
Revenge Play of the Week (2-4)
Situational Play of the Week (1-1)
Series Play of the Week (2-5)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (3-6)
3* (3-5)
2* (5-3)
NFL System play (5-4)
4* Pro Angle (1-3)
3* o/u play (4-5)
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (0-0)
2* (8-3)
1* (10-7)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-1)
2* (8-9)
1* (4-5)
Sports Reporter (0-5 overall this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (5-20-2)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (6-10-1)
Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (7-12)
88* (14-16-1)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (5-2-1)
NCAA 3* (4-2)
NFL 4* (2-6)
NFL 3* (4-4)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (9-9)
Cajun NCAA (5-3) (edited)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (edited)
3* (10-8)
2* (4-5)
Team Total of the Week (6-3)
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (7-7)
NCAA 4* (15-12-1)
NFL 4* (4-5)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (10-24)
NFL Key Releases (18-16-0)
ITPB
NCAA (23-21)
NFL (9-8-1)
Thank you.
PODCASTS
Marc Lawrence's November 11 Podcast with Victor King
Stanford Steve and The Bear
The Action Network Podcasts
Football Jesus
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 11 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 18-10 overall)
The Bear (0-3, 14-12)
The plays
East Carolina Pirates at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-27.5, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: This game last year was absolutely incredible, as the Bearcats came from behind to win a thriller 46-43. The Pirates have had a brutal season, topped by the worst beat of the year in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago, but I believe coach Mike Houston will have the Pirates competing. On the other side, the Bearcats will continue to need style points to stay in the conversation about top teams in the country. We expect a lot of points. Take the over.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Cincinnati 38, East Carolina 20)
No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-10, 57) at Washington State Cougars
Stanford Steve: I was blown away by the talent and playmaking ability of new Wazzu QB Jayden de Laura last week in his first start in a win at Corvallis. But I think this matchup with the Ducks puts the Cougs at a disadvantage on both lines of scrimmage. The Ducks took a while to get going last week, but I like them here.
Pick: Oregon -10 (Oregon 48, Washington State 24)
No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5, 54) at Michigan Wolverines
The Bear: Yeah, we know, Michigan looked awful last week and hasn't won a game as an underdog under Jim Harbaugh. There is a possibility that Graham Mertz shreds what appears to be a shaky Michigan secondary. But we still don't know who is in and who is out for the Badgers, and this game reminds me a bit of the Notre Dame game last year at the Big House, when everyone assumed Michigan had checked out for the season, but then the Wolverines dominated the Irish. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan shows up and tries to salvage a little something with a great performance against one of the Big Ten's best.
Pick: Michigan +4.5
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
The Bear: It's hard to knock anything Northwestern has done in getting to 3-0, but since the blowout win over Maryland, the Wildcats have been fairly fortunate. They were outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska, but the Huskers committed two costly turnovers deep in Northwestern territory in the second half. The Wildcats managed to beat Iowa with 273 yards, forcing three second-half turnovers and rallying from 17-0 down. Those margins can't continue, can they? We don't know much about Purdue, but even if Rondale Moore doesn't go, David Bell and the offense have done enough the first two weeks to back the Boilers as small home 'dogs.
Pick: Purdue +3
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd (-23.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: Saturday is the 50th anniversary of the 1970 Marshall football team, and emotions run high when that team is mentioned in and around Huntington. The Thundering Herd haven't lost on this weekend since 2011. Expect big things for Doc Holliday's team as their quest for an undefeated season continues.
Pick: Marshall -23.5 (Marshall 54, Middle Tennessee 18)
South Carolina Gamecocks at Ole Miss Rebels (-10.5, 70)
The Bear: South Carolina had an extra week to prep for Texas A&M, and that's the performance we got? This is a D that has allowed more than 500 yards the past three weeks, and its two wins are against Vandy -- well, because its Vandy -- and Auburn because the Tigers couldn't stop turning the ball over. This could be a spot for the Ole Miss offense to put up a big number.
Pick: Ole Miss -10.5
Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6.5, 52)
Stanford Steve: I have seen both of these teams, and I think Rutgers is the better coached and more talented team. I'm curious how much time Rutgers spends on lateraling the football because this team is very, very good at it.
Pick: Rutgers -6.5 (Rutgers 31, Illinois 17)
Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 54.5)
The Bear: I came away with an OK feeling about the Cardinal after last week in Eugene. They moved the ball well at times but couldn't finish drives and had a miserable night in the kicking game. Colorado was a charity case for UCLA turnovers, and as long as Stanford doesn't turn it over like the Bruins did, it should be able to beat a CU team that was thought to be headed toward a winless season.
Pick: Stanford -6.5
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5, 51) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Bear: Pitt looked great over the final three quarters last week, but given everything that has gone on in Tallahassee the past few days, I wonder how much FSU internal discontent factored into the Panthers' blowout win. The return of Kenny Pickett did help Pitt's offense, but I like the spot for Georgia Tech here coming off an idle week to catch its breath following consecutive games vs. Clemson, Boston College and Notre Dame. The last time Tech had an idle week, it put up its best performance of the year in a 46-27 win over Louisville -- the same Louisville team that Pitt beat by three. It takes a little leap of faith here to back a team that has struggled on offense, but I'm going to do it.
Pick: Georgia Tech +6.5
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $83
North Carolina -500
Kentucky -900
USC -650
Cincinnati -4000
Florida -850
UCF -2500
Marshall -2000
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Georgia Tech +200
Purdue +125
Michigan +165
Bear Bytes
Zero ranked matchups
• This is the first November week since Week 12 of 2009 (Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009) in which there is not a single matchup of AP ranked teams. That week, four ranked teams lost to unranked teams (three on the road), and there were two other games in which the ranked team won by a field goal.
Ranked vs. unranked
• Ranked teams are 40-58-2 ATS this year vs. unranked teams and 31-47-2 ATS as double-digit favorites against unranked teams.
Miami at Virginia Tech
• Last year, there were two games in which a three-loss team was a home favorite over a team with zero or one loss. In both instances, the home favorite won. A 6-3 Iowa team beat 9-0 Minnesota 23-19, and 2-3 Miami beat 4-1 Virginia 17-9. This week, 4-3 Virginia Tech is a favorite over 6-1 Miami.
Penn State at Nebraska
• The Huskers have lost 15 straight games as underdogs dating to a 2017 win at Purdue. Nebraska has also lost nine straight games as a home underdog by an average of 23.4 PPG. Nebraska's most recent win as a home 'dog came in 2015 vs. Michigan State.
Arkansas at Florida
• Dating to last year, Arkansas has covered eight straight games as an underdog. This year, Arkansas has been a 'dog six times and won three of them outright, and if it weren't for an officiating error, it would be 4-2 SU as an underdog, with wins as a 13.5-point and 17-point 'dog.
UNLV at San Jose State
• The Spartans are 8-7 in their past 15 games, including 7-7 vs. FBS teams since the start of last year. From 2016 to '18, SJSU was 5-29 vs. FBS teams. The Spartans are 3-0 for the first time since 1982 and seeking their first 4-0 start since 1955.
Wisconsin at Michigan
• Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is 0-10 SU as an underdog (2-8 ATS). That includes a pair of double-digit losses to Wisconsin at Camp Randall. This is the first time Michigan is a home underdog to someone other than Ohio State under Harbaugh.
Week 11 college football best bets: Oregon faces early road test
Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (3-5 last week, 22-15 overall), Bill Connelly (1-1, 13-12), Preston Johnson (1-0, 19-10), David M. Hale (3-0, 13-12) and Seth Walder (0-2, 4-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels (-13.5, 66), Noon ET (on ACC Network)
Hale: It seems every time we've liked North Carolina to cover a hefty spread against a far less explosive opponent this year, the Tar Heels have found a way to lose outright. It's the growing pains of a team still not quite ready to compete at an elite level, despite having some elite talent But, fool us twice, because we're ready to get fooled again.
UNC ranks second in net explosive play rate so far, while Wake is 88th. The Demon Deacons have outperformed their underlying metrics repeatedly, but so long as the Tar Heels don't fall behind big in the first half -- as they've done so often this year -- this should be a game in which the big-play offense of UNC puts Wake on its heels (get it?) leading to an easy win.
Pick: North Carolina -13.5
Army Black Knights at Tulane Green Wave (-5.5, 47.5), Noon ET (on ESPN+)
Connelly: I'm conflicted on this one. Tulane both has been pretty reliable against the spread and has looked outstanding in recent weeks, beating Temple and East Carolina by a combined 76-24 score. The Green Wave have overachieved their SP+ projections by 4.7 points per game.
However, Army has overachieved its SP+ projections by 5.7 points per game, and has overachieved against the spread by an average of 11.5 points. The Black Knights have done this despite shuffling at the quarterback position. While their option offense is mostly what you'd expect -- minimal big plays, long drives, lots of third-down conversions, great in the red zone -- it's the defense that makes SP+ favor them here. Army has allowed fewer than 12 points per game against FBS teams, and that includes a game against rampant Cincinnati. SP+ says Army has a 2.3-point advantage, and even if you don't believe that, there's a healthy distance between that and Tulane -5.5.
Pick: Army +5.5
Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6.5, 52), Noon ET (on Big Ten Network)
Kezirian: This has been a strange year, so it makes perfect sense that Rutgers is favored by 6.5 points in a conference game. All joking aside, Greg Schiano has already turned this program around toward competency. I have been pleasantly surprised by the Scarlet Knights in every game so far, particularly with the fight they showed against Ohio State in garbage time. They moved the ball for a touchdown, and then the defense forced a turnover in its red zone. Meanwhile, Illinois has looked lifeless and weak. This has all the makings of a dispirited squad on the road against a team that's hungry for a blowout win.
This is my favorite bet of the weekend, so I am going to try to milk that. I also want to play Rutgers in the first half and also use the Scarlet Knights in a teaser.
Pick: Rutgers -3.5 (first half), Rutgers -6.5, Rutgers -.5 in 6-point teaser with Purdue +9
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats (-17, 42), noon ET (on SEC Network)
ohnson: Vanderbilt had a good under-the-radar performance at Mississippi State last week. The Commodores lost, so it often gets overlooked, but Vandy outgained the Bulldogs 478 yards to 204. Vanderbilt had 30 first downs to just 14 for Mississippi State. The problem was that the Commodores turned it over five times, and every one was in Mississippi State territory. This is an offense I'm eager to back if the numbers line up.
On the other side, Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson is questionable to play (he missed the Georgia game), and the Wildcats have combined for only 13 points total the past two games (Missouri prior to Georgia). This was an offense that was already struggling mightily anyway but benefited from numerous defensive scores in early-season matchups. It's hard to envision the Wildcats covering a number as high as 17 points whether or not Wilson is able to play. I grabbed some +600 on the ML as well, for what it's worth.
Pick: Vanderbilt +17
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-4.5, 48.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on CBSSN)
Johnson: I spoke to buying low on WKU last week, and it came through for us against FAU despite nasty weather. I'm going right back on the Hilltoppers here against a Golden Eagles team that has been without its best two quarterbacks in Jack Abraham and Tate Whatley these past two games. This resulted in a 30-6 home loss to Rice and a second-half comeback to beat FCS opponent North Alabama, 24-13. Both quarterbacks are questionable to play again in this matchup, and even if they do I make this line closer to -7. Southern Miss is on its third head coach of the season and is in the type of situation that I feel comfortable fading with a short number.
Pick: Western Kentucky -4.5
Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1.5, 57), 4 p.m. ET
Hale: It would be easy to dismiss Baylor as a bad team under a first-year coach, but that's not the whole story. The underlying metrics have actually been pretty good. The defense has rarely allowed explosive plays, and has kept Baylor in nearly every game until late -- all four losses were by 11 points or less, all to teams ranked higher in the FPI. This week, however, Baylor has a clear advantage in FPI -- the Bears check in at No. 34, while Texas Tech is No. 74. And that Red Raiders offense that hung 56 on Texas in late September hasn't looked the same since. The Bears' D will have a strong game, and Baylor will win outright.
Pick: Baylor +1.5
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego State Aztecs (-11, 52.5), 4 p.m. ET
Kezirian: I love this recipe for a relatively low-scoring game. For me, the handicap starts with Hawaii's poor track record on the road against physicality. The Aztecs' calling card is defense and ball control, and I don't think that bodes well for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii only mustered seven points at Wyoming, and I expect a similar performance here. San Diego State relies on a strong rushing attack, and while I expect the Aztecs to cover the double-digits, I am going to opt for the under. QB Carson Baker has limitations, so I am unsure I want to depend on some big plays. Instead, let's just hope we get a one-sided game with a bleeding clock in the second half.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-10.5, 57.5) at Washington State Cougars, 7 p.m. ET (on FOX)
Johnson: I'm playing against the early-week move on the Ducks here (opened -7.5). Oregon benefited from Stanford quarterback Davis Mills and top wide receiver Connor Wedington being scratched for COVID-19-related concerns prior to the game this past week. Regardless, the Cardinal were able to move the ball against an inexperienced defense, and the result isn't as impressive when you recognize Stanford missed four field goals as well.
Turn to a Washington State team that the market was looking to fade in its first game without Mike Leach (opened a favorite and closed +3 at Oregon State), and I think the market ultimately got this one wrong. True freshman quarterback Jayden de Laura was extremely impressive. He didn't lose a single game for two seasons in high school (two state championships included), and his poise showed. Backup running back Deon McIntosh (a Notre Dame transfer) rushed for 147 yards and was virtually unstoppable. Starting running back Max Borghi missed the game and is questionable this week. It's obviously a bonus if he can go. People anticipated a drop-off from Leach to new head coach Nick Rolovich, but his run-and-shoot offense was effective at Nevada, Hawaii and now in the opener for Wazzu. I'm taking the 'dog now that we are seeing double-digits in the market.
Pick: Washington State +10.5
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers, 7:30 p.m. ET (on Big Ten Network)
Hale: Fading Northwestern and its lackluster offense seemed like a good idea for three straight weeks, yet the Wildcats are 3-0 with three covers. All three games failed to hit the total, too, underscoring the obvious: Northwestern has a shaky offense and a very good defense. Now Pat Fitzgerald's crew is facing another team more than capable of laying an egg, another week where it's easy to project an ugly low-scoring Northwestern win. But I've never been one to shy away from a betting strategy just because it doesn't seem to work, so I'll fade the Wildcats again and project an outright win for the Boilermakers.
Pick: Purdue +3
Johnson: My projections make this very close to a 50/50 game, so taking the three points with a Purdue team coming off of an essential bye week against a Northwestern team exceeding expectations in the win-loss column is perfectly fine with me. The fact of the matter is, the Northwestern win last week required some good fortune. Nebraska had eight total trips inside the Wildcats' red zone and managed to score only 13 points total. In fact, the Cornhuskers had three trips in the second half alone that resulted in a total of zero points. The Northwestern love, while the team has improved from 2019, has gone a little too far.
Pick: Purdue +3
Utah Utes (-3, 59.5) at UCLA Bruins, 10:30 p.m. ET (on FOX)
Connelly: Because SP+ was 4-0 picking Pac-12 games last week, here's a "team SP+ loves debuting against a team that didn't look good last week" pick. Utah has plenty to replace off last year's squad but ranks 25th in SP+ because of long-term program health. UCLA, on the other hand, ranks 74th in SP+ and lost to Colorado last week. SP+ sees something like a 36-25 win for Utah.
UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson's volatility -- he looks like a Heisman contender on one drive, then looks completely checked out for the next three -- makes picking for or against the Bruins a bit scary. And Utah has had some contact-tracing issues, making its depth questionable. But Utah has been so steady in recent years, and UCLA just lost to Colorado.
Pick: Utah -3
Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies (-13.5, 52.5), 11 p.m. ET (on FS1)
Connelly: I wrote this last week before Washington's game with Cal was canceled, and it still applies: this is a full-on "Fine, SP+, you've got one shot at this" pick, as SP+ is particularly bullish on the Huskies. It projects a 38-17 advantage over Oregon State.
Oregon State's offense showed some spark in their 38-28 loss to Washington State last week, especially on the ground, and the Beavers could test a Washington front that experienced a bit more turnover than originally expected when it lost Levi Onwuzurike. But the Oregon State defense might be the perfect testing ground for whatever new Washington offensive coordinator John Donovan comes up with. OSU didn't provide much resistance against Washington State's limited roster and freshman quarterback.
Pick: Washington -13.5