Tuesday 11/17/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL & NCAAF games
Newsletter Tracking (through 11/16/2020)
The grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
CKO (we didn't get CKO again this week)
11* (0-2)
10* (3-5)
o/u (2-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (26-22-1)
NFL Best Bets (21-18-1)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
"Top Play" (5-4)
Upset pick (5-5)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-5)
Awesome Angle (7-4)
Incredible Stat (2-6)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (4-6)
4* (7-3)
3* (5-4-1)
Pointwise NCAA
1* (10-5)
2* (2-5)
3* (6-4)
4* (4-8-1)
5* (3-8)
Pointwise NFL
3* (3-7)
4* (12-8)
5* (9-11)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (3-6)
3* (11-5)
2* (6-5)
Underdog Play of the Week (5-5)
Tech Play of the Week (1-2)
Revenge Play of the Week (2-4)
Situational Play of the Week (1-2)
Series Play of the Week (2-5)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-6)
3* (3-6)
2* (5-4)
NFL System play (5-5)
4* Pro Angle (1-4)
3* o/u play (5-5)
Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (0-0)
2* (8-4)
1* (11-9)
Powers' Picks NFL (0-3 overall this week)
4* (0-0)
3* (0-1)
2* (8-10)
1* (4-7)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (6-21-2)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (8-11-1)
Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (9-12)
88* (16-17-1)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (6-2-1)
NCAA 3* (4-2)
NFL 4* (2-7)
NFL 3* (4-5)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (10-10)
Cajun NCAA (5-3) (edited)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (edited)
3* (12-8)
2* (4-6)
Team Total of the Week (7-3)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (8-7)
NCAA 4* (16-13-1)
NFL 4* (4-6)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (11-26)
NFL Key Releases (19-18-1)
ITPB
NCAA (25-24)
NFL (9-10-1)
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 12 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. Stanford Steve hit on three of four picks last week, and he is 21-11 on the season. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 12 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 21-11 overall)
The Bear (1-3, 15-15)
The plays
No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-35, 64) at Florida State Seminoles
Stanford Steve: Does anyone think Trevor Lawrence is going come back after being out with COVID-19 and Dabo Swinney is gonna tell him to hand the ball off to Travis Etienne? I sure don't. Expect the Tigers to come out for the first time we have seen them since losing in South Bend to Notre Dame and do whatever they want ... looking a lot like they did when they won in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago versus Georgia Tech, 73-7. I'll lay the points with Dabo and the boys.
Pick: Clemson -35 (Clemson 69, Florida State 17)
No. 6 Florida Gators (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Stanford Steve: Totally going with the "what have you done for me lately" theory here. Florida scored 65 points versus Arkansas last week, and Vanderbilt scored 35 versus Kentucky. Let's hope they both score that much this week. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 68 (Florida 51, Vanderbilt 24)
No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-6, 63.5) at UCF Knights
The Bear: According to adjusted defensive EPA, Tulsa's defense ranks one spot higher than Cincinnati, and UCF put up 455 yards on the Golden Hurricane. Yes, the Knights also turned it over three times in a game in which they blew a big first-half lead, but I'm going to trust the UCF offense here to post its fair share of yards and points on a Cincinnati defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points to an FBS opponent this season. Will it be enough against a Cincinnati offense that has gotten going the past few weeks? Maybe not, but I do think grabbing UCF and the points is the right move here.
Pick: UCF +6
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-25, 44.5)
The Bear: You might have missed it, but Mississippi State had just 204 yards and threw for 4.9 yards per attempt against Vanderbilt. If the Georgia D is still motivated, I can't imagine MSU having much success at all against a defense that is third in adjusted defensive EPA. At the same time, MSU's defense is fifth in that metric, and we've seen both Stetson Bennett and D'Wan Mathis struggle against good defenses this season. Even if star WR George Pickens is back, I'm not sure we can expect Georgia to score in the middle to upper 30s, which is likely what will be needed to push this one over the total.
Pick: Under 44.5
Kansas State Wildcats at No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones (-10.5, 46.5)
The Bear: After a sloppy win over Baylor, expect the Cyclones to handle K-State here in a bit of a revenge game after the Wildcats' defense had its way with Iowa State last year (236 yards allowed, 1-for-13 on third down). It wasn't like the Wildcats did much offensively either -- 288 yards and had a TD on a kickoff return -- and that was with Skylar Thompson at QB. K-State's offense against the past three teams it has faced not named Kansas: 37 drives, four TDs, six turnovers, 15 drives without a first down. Iowa State controls its fate to reach the Big 12 title game, and I don't see any lookahead to next week's game versus Texas in Austin.
Pick: Iowa State -10.5
No. 21 Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack (-3.5, 66.5)
The Bear: The four best teams NC State has faced have each put up better than 40 points on the Wolfpack, and the NC State running game should have some success versus Liberty. Liberty QB Malik Willis threw for 217 yards and ran for 108 against Virginia Tech in a 38-35 win. Is there any reason not to expect Willis to have a similar type of game here given the amount of damage D'Eriq King did to NC State's defense a couple weeks ago? I'd be surprised if we didn't have another 38-35 type of game here.
Pick: Over 66.5
Tulane Green Wave at No. 25 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-6.5, 63.5)
The Bear: Tulane lost a couple of close contests early, dropped a weird game versus Houston and then was just outmanned by UCF. But the Green Wave have won three straight in which their defense has played much better, and they now face a Tulsa team that has a solid D, is hit or miss on offense and is ripe for a bit of a letdown after a big comeback win over SMU. Feels like a good spot to take the points.
Pick: Tulane +6.5
Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal (-2.5, 64.5)
Stanford Steve: No one has blown me away at the quarterback position more this year than Washington State's Jayden de Laura. The true freshman from St. Louis High School in Honolulu -- the same school that produced Tua Tagovailoa and Marcus Mariota -- has thrown for 548 yards and four TDs in his first two games as a college football player. However, having watched the Cardinal play the past two weeks, the lack of speed in the WSU secondary does not bode well for Nick Rolovich's squad from Pullman. I'll take the points with the Cougs.
Pick: Washington State +2.5 (Washington State 38, Stanford 37)
San Jose State Spartans (-2.5, 60.5) at Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bear: Since a three-interception performance in the opener versus Hawaii, Fresno State QB Jake Haener has been great, putting up an 83 QBR with eight TDs and just one INT. Yes, there's a chance it was a byproduct of playing three of the worst teams in the Mountain West Conference in UNLV, Utah State and Colorado State. But while San Jose State has been a great story, the Spartans are facing the best offense they have seen all season, and their undefeated record is certainly in jeopardy.
Pick: Fresno State +2.5
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $44
Clemson -7000
Ohio State -1200
Iowa State -380
Florida -4500
Alabama -7000
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Tulane +205
UCF +180
Fresno State +115
Washington State +110
Bear Bytes
Ranked matchups
• Favorites began the year 14-2-1 against the spread in ranked matchups, but all three ranked matchups on Nov. 7 saw the underdog not only cover but win outright (Notre Dame over Clemson, Indiana over Michigan and Florida over Georgia).
Iowa (-2.5, 47) at Penn State
• This the eighth time Penn State has been a home underdog under James Franklin. Four of the previous seven instances were against Ohio State. The last time Penn State was a home dog to someone other than Ohio State was Oct. 8, 2016, against Maryland.
UCLA at No. 11 Oregon (-13.5, 66.5)
• With an upset win, UCLA would be over .500 for the first time under Chip Kelly. With Kelly at the helm, the Bruins have pulled one upset as a double-digit underdog -- the 67-63 win at Washington State last year as an 18.5-point 'dog.
No. 7 Cincinnati (-6, 63.5) at UCF
• This snaps UCF's 29-game streak in which it was a home favorite. It is the first time since September 2016 versus Maryland that the Knights are a home underdog.
Washington State at Stanford (-2, 64.5)
• Dating back to last year, Stanford has failed to cover in each of the past six games and is 2-11 ATS in its prior 13 contests. The Cardinal have lost six in a row straight up and 10 of their past 13.
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-7, 59.5)
• This is the first time since Nov. 11, 2017, that Oklahoma is a single-digit favorite. On that day, OU beat TCU 38-20 as a 6-point favorite.
• Since 2015, Oklahoma has been a favorite of seven points or fewer nine times in a regular-season game. The Sooners have won all nine games and are 8-0-1 ATS.
No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5, 44) at No. 19 Northwestern
• The Wildcats have covered five of the past six in the series, winning three outright -- all as an underdog.
Week 12 college football best bets: No. 7 Cincinnati visits UCF
Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (2-2 last week, 24-17 overall), Bill Connelly (0-2, 13-14), Preston Johnson (1-3, 20-13), David M. Hale (0-3, 13-15) and Seth Walder (0-0, 4-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Purdue Boilermakers (-3, 63) at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: This game has shootout written all over it. Minnesota has allowed 35+ points in its three losses, and the defense only kept Illinois in check because the Illini were relegated to what now looks like their fourth-best quarterback. However, the Gophers' offense has some talent with QB Tanner Morgan, RB Mohamed Ibrahim and likely NFL first-round draft pick WR Rashod Bateman. Only Iowa has been able to slow down Minnesota, and that's fairly understandable. The Hawkeyes rank third in yards per play allowed.
Purdue is similar in many ways, with a play-making wide receiver in David Bell. The rushing attack is not as potent, but quarterback Aidan O'Connell is throwing the ball often. And that should work quite well against a Minnesota defense allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 106th of 126 FBS teams. Overall, the Gophers are allowing 7.6 yards per play -- second-worst in the country, behind only Akron. For those unfamiliar with the Zips, they have as many wins since 2019 as their school mascot indicates: 0.
Pick: Over 63
No. 6 Florida Gators (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt Commodores, noon ET (on ESPN)
Kezirian: Florida is likely able to name its score, and I think Vanderbilt's ineptitude will allow the Gators to hang a 50-spot. The Gators own one of the nation's best offenses, scoring at least 38 points in all six games. Even when Dan Mullen allows his backups to play, the Gators still find the end zone. You cannot expect the reserves to run the power-I formation on every play, and even if they did, the Commodores could not stop it.
Fifty points is really not that much, when you consider Vanderbilt is 0-6 and has been outscored 215-99. The Commodores allowed LSU and South Carolina to score 41 points, so why can't the Gators drop 50? Even Mississippi State scored 24 against Vandy. To put that in perspective, the Bulldogs' offense was held scoreless against Alabama and Kentucky, and only managed 14 points against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Pick: Florida -31.5; Florida over 49.5 (at DraftKings)
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-15, 59), noon ET
Kezirian: Thanksgiving is next week, but it seems like both teams have just figured out their QB depth chart. Luke McCaffrey replaced Adrian Martinez and the Nebraska offense responded well, building a 27-3 lead in the upset over Penn State last week. McCaffrey should look even more comfortable against an Illinois defense that has gaping holes and constant confusion in its secondary. The Illini did some nice things against Rutgers, but have allowed 31+ points in their three losses.
Meanwhile, last weekend Isaiah Williams became the fourth different Illinois starting quarterback in as many games. He ran for 192 yards, and his speed kept Rutgers' defenders looking pretty clueless. Nebraska has a better defense, but this is still a far cry from a vintage Cornhuskers D. Additionally Brandon Peters, who started the opener, is expected to return from COVID-19, and I imagine Lovie Smith will find creative ways to utilize both quarterbacks.
Pick: Over 59
Georgia Southern Eagles at Army Black Knights (-4, 41), noon ET
Hale: Army's 6-2 record looks impressive until you dig into the schedule, which is abysmal. Three wins came against FCS foes, and the other three against teams ranked 108, 122 and 123 in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). In the two games the Black Knights played against legitimate opponents, they managed to score a combined 22 points. Georgia Southern isn't elite by any stretch, but the Eagles have solid wins over Troy and South Alabama, and they held their own against both Louisiana and Coastal Carolina. They're also allowing just 3.48 yards per rush, tops in the Sun Belt. This feels like a particularly good matchup for Georgia Southern, and a chance to get points with the better team.
Pick: Georgia Southern +4
No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-6, 63.5) at UCF Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Johnson: I have been as pro-Cincinnati this season as anybody and bet the Bearcats in two of their past four games -- and I still think this line is way too extreme. I can see the Bearcats earning the right to be a small favorite, but anything over a field goal is too much, and I'm taking the points. Despite the losses on its résumé, UCF is still top 10 offensively in expected points added (EPA) and success rate. The Knights lead the country in total yards. Their tempo will be something Cincinnati's defense hasn't seen this season. I expect this to be its toughest test yet.
The concern for UCF would be on the other side of the ball against a Desmond Ridder-led Cincy offense that is making a ton of noise. I like the prospects of this matchup turning into a back-and-forth shootout with the matchup advantages for each team, and my projection for the total is closer to 68.
Pick: UCF +6 and over 63.5
No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 43.5) at No. 19 Northwestern Wildcats, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
Walder: There was no major team FPI was higher on relative to the general consensus than Wisconsin. Way back when no games had been played, it considered the Badgers the fourth-best team in college football while the preseason AP poll put them at No. 12. In the two games Wisconsin has played, FPI has only been emboldened, as the Badgers beat already high expectations from the model in their blowout victories over Illinois and Michigan.
While Northwestern is also undefeated, at 4-0, the model has been less impressed by the Wildcats. Though every single win has resulted in an upgrade to Northwestern's FPI rating, those upgrades have all been below a single point on a neutral field -- three of the four victories were within one score, after all. Contrast that with the four-point bump Wisconsin received from its win over Michigan alone, and we can see why FPI still prefers the Badgers by more than two touchdowns. It's looking past the zeroes in both loss columns and focusing on the way those zeroes were achieved.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
Connelly: Algorithms of the world, unite! SP+ hasn't loved Wisconsin quite as much as FPI, but it's close, and it has still underestimated the Badgers by 19 points per game. Northwestern has overachieved in its own right, but this is a pure "let it ride" pick as far as Wisconsin is concerned. SP+ projects the Badgers to win by 15.5, and while I think a plodding tempo could keep it closer than that, that's a pretty good cushion between the line and the projection.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
UCLA Bruins at No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-13.5, 66.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)
Johnson: I think taking UCLA's win over Cal on Sunday as a worthwhile data point is an overreaction. Cal was dealing with COVID-19 concerns for the two weeks leading up to the game after some cancellations and didn't even know it was facing UCLA in a Sunday game until two days prior. Oregon is covering spreads left and right despite a minus-five turnover differential, and this Ducks offense won't have any issues against a Bruins defense that, in a more trustworthy result against Colorado in the opener, allowed 48 points to the Buffs.
Pick: Oregon -13.5
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 47) at Penn State Nittany Lions, 3:30 p.m. ET
Hale: Sometimes you just have to wager on the idea that proud programs will show some heart when their backs are against the wall. Is Penn State the top-25 team we expected before the season? No. But are the Nittany Lions really an 0-5 team? Bad turnover luck (Penn State is minus-six on the season, losing the turnover margin in all four games) and bad luck overall (the Nittany Lions have outgained three of four opponents, two by more than 200 yards) have been as big an issue as the quarterback, and that luck has to turn soon. We'll take the points at home with a team desperate to redeem itself.
Pick: Penn State +2.5
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (30, 58), 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)
Kezirian: Given its high-powered offense, Alabama is certainly capable of blowing out any opponent, especially one with limitations like Kentucky. But sometimes you have to dig deeper, and anticipate situations when a team is prime to merely go through the motions. Alabama has its rivalry game next week against Auburn, and most players are probably already focused on the Iron Bowl. Additionally, Nick Saban is known for taking his foot off the gas once the outcome is decided, and I can certainly see that happening in the fourth quarter against Kentucky. Plus Kentucky has a pretty strong defense, which should be able to prevent Alabama from marching up and down the field at will. The Wildcats are awful on offense -- they went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer -- but I can see them doing some things when the Crimson Tide have the reserves in.
Pick: Kentucky +30
San Jose State Spartans (-2.5, 60) at Fresno State Bulldogs, 7 p.m. ET
Johnson: I make this game's total 64. The San Jose State offense has been phenomenal with either quarterback under center (first-stringer Nick Starkel is back, though), and the Fresno State offense is the best the Spartans will have seen by a massive margin to this point. Kalen DeBoer is a magician scheming plays for the Bulldogs. Both teams are in the top 40 in EPA offensively. I'm not overthinking this and am trusting my numbers here.
Pick: Over 60
Kezirian: Fresno State has a phony 3-1 record, and the oddsmakers have shown that by casting them as a home underdog. The Bulldogs just beat Utah State, who is winless, 0-4 ATS and already got rid of its coach. Fresno State has also beaten winless UNLV, and Colorado State -- but that was before Steve Addazaio figured out that his best quarterback is Patrick O'Brien. Todd Centeio started and played nearly the entire game against Fresno State, but was ineffective.
The Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS, and the push against UNLV only came because San Jose State played a very vanilla offense in the fourth quarter, drained the clock and took a knee inside the 10-yard line. They also have a double-digit win over San Diego State, who I think is quite good. Fresno State running back Ronnie Rivers is a capable player and will produce, but a polished Nick Starkel and the San Jose State passing attack will prove to be too much.
Pick: San Jose State -2.5
No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 59), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
Kezirian: After suffering back-to-back losses, Oklahoma has cranked up the offense and torched opponents in four straight wins. That includes a 33-9 win over TCU, and three other victories in which the Sooners dropped at least 53 points. Lincoln Riley's unit lacks a Heisman candidate, but it still ranks in the top 25 in yards per play and yards per pass attempt.
Oklahoma State has a respectable defense and is ranked higher, but the high-powered offense always wins these battles -- just ask Georgia about its meeting with Alabama. For whatever reason, the Cowboys have not managed much on offense this year. They sputter way too often. As for the rivalry, it's been dominated by Oklahoma -- Mike Gundy is only 2-13 against the Sooners.
Pick: Oklahoma -7; Oklahoma over 33.5 (at DK)
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-25, 44.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)
Kezirian: Georgia's defense will dominate this game, and there is a chance Mississippi State will be held to zero or one score. But I do not feel comfortable laying 25 points with an inept Georgia offense. To me, this handicap comes down to the Mississippi State defense -- is it capable of putting up a fight? I think so, to a certain extent. I may be guilty of getting a little too cute, but I am banking on Mike Leach's crew to have some fight at the start.
Given Stetson Bennett's limitations, and there are plenty, Kirby Smart has approached first quarters with extreme caution. Georgia has not scored more than 10 points in the first quarter this season. It's time to capitalize on that conservative play-calling and top-notch defense. I highly doubt Mississippi State will score in the first quarter, so it comes down to whether Bennett and the offense can muster two touchdowns. Sure, a long Georgia run could happen, but I trust the Mississippi State defense to hold its own.
Pick: First quarter under 10.5 (at DK)
No. 21 Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack (-3.5, 66.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)
Connelly: Three sweet spots for SP+ picks this season, albeit with small sample sizes in the first two cases: 6-2 against the spread picking NC State games; 4-2 ATS picking Liberty games; 19-10 ATS in games in which (a) it disagrees with the spread by at least three points and (b) the line is between 3.5 and 6.5 points. And it was 40-27-1 with those criteria last season.
While NC State has been a pretty inconsistent team, Liberty hasn't. The Flames were lucky to beat a much better Virginia Tech team but still played well against the Hokies, and the fact that SP+ projects them to have a 4.4-point advantage -- a pretty significant difference with the line -- gives me confidence.
Pick: Liberty +3.5
No. 20 USC Trojans (-3, 57.5) at Utah Utes, 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Connelly: Aside from its strange and, as of last week, unjustified love of Washington, SP+ has had a decent read on the Pac-12 so far. It's 3-2 ATS when it disagrees with the line by more than three points, 3-1 sans Washington.
I'm going to trust it when it says Utah has a slight advantage over USC, even though we haven't seen the Utes play yet. The Trojans have underachieved in each of their first two games, so that makes it a bit easier to swallow.
Pick: Utah +3