AFC Win Totals
By Brian Edwards
Most betting shops both offshore and in Las Vegas have recently posted win totals for the 2010 NFL campaign. On that note, let’s discuss a few of those numbers and more.
The highest win tallies belong to the Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers, who are at 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at BoDog. These wagers have a 30-cent line, so bettors wanting the ‘over’ would get an even-money price on the Bolts.
More than anything, San Diego shares the highest total due to its weak division. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos are all going through rebuilding phases, as evidenced by win totals of 6, 6 ½ and 7 1/2, respectively.
With that said, this space thinks Oakland could turn some heads this year. We saw it was a different team when JaMarcus Russell wasn’t under center last year. Remember, the Raiders went into Heinz Field and won outright as 14 ½-point underdogs when the Steelers were in a must-win situation in terms of their playoff hopes.
With Russell belatedly jettisoned out of town, Jason Campbell takes over as the team’s starting quarterback. The former Redskin signal caller was acquired on draft day, which went quite well for the Raiders (in a shocking change of pace) according to this guy.
I loved the pick of linebacker Rolando McClain, who was more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in most mock drafts but went to Oakland at No. 8. However, this was not a Darrius Heyward-Bey type of reach and it says here that McClain is going to be a perennial Pro-Bowler.
Similar to its pick of Louis Murphy as a fourth-round steal the year before, Oakland got great value by drafting Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford in the fourth round. In fact, the Raiders scored a pair of fourth-round steals by also selecting Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, who is a first-round talent that could start immediately on an offensive line that’s been the team’s biggest weakness the last two years.
Back to the Colts, who have a win total of 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com. This offshore website has 20-cent lines, so gamblers can bet ‘over’ 11 wins on Indy for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).
Peyton Manning and Co. play at New England in late November and will play at Philadelphia earlier in the month. The Colts will face the Eagles on a short week of preparation after hosting Houston for Monday Night Football the previous week.
Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all optimistic that it can break through in 2010. We saw how the Titans went from 0-6 to 8-2 once Vince Young replaced Kerry Collins as the team’s starting QB last year. Assuming the organization can get star RB Chris Johnson (2,006 rushing yards LY) happy with his contract and into training camp, there’s no reason to think the Titans aren’t a legit contender.
Jeff Fisher’s club has been saddled with a win total of 8 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Tennessee is hoping that first-round pick Derrick Morgan can replace veteran defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, who bolted to Detroit via free agency. Morgan had 12 ½ sacks at Ga. Tech in 2009. Another rookie, third-round pick Damian Williams from out of USC, should be able to have an immediate impact on Young and the squad’s aerial attack.
The Texans are still trying to get to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They came close last season, finishing 9-7. Gary Kubiak was retained, but he probably needs to get to the postseason this year if he wants a sixth season in Houston.
The organization likes what it has, as evidenced by the return of nearly the entire nucleus except for CB Dunta Robinson, who inked a big free-agent contract with Atlanta. The Texans did address the kicking game with the signing of former Arizona place kicker Neil Rackers. They have a win total of eight ‘over’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com.
Jacksonville’s tally is the lowest in the AFC South at seven ‘under’ (minus-120). Like Kubiak in Houston, Jack Del Rio probably has to get the Jaguars back to the playoffs in order to keep his job. I hated the team’s draft and they weren’t exactly active in the free-agent market with their best acquisition (DE Aaron Kampman) coming off a torn ALC. I think it’s ‘under’ or pass on the Jags’ win tally.
The AFC North has Baltimore with the highest win total, 10 ‘over’ (minus-120). The Ravens are looking for their third straight trip to the playoffs during John Harbaugh’s tenure. They brought in WR Anquan Boldin to give QB Joe Flacco help with the passing game. The draft also addressed some needs, as a bulky DT was plucked out of the second round. His name is Terrence Cody from out of Alabama.
Pittsburgh has the Ben Roethlisberger suspension to cope with early in the year. Nevertheless, the Steelers have a win total of nine ‘under’ (minus-150). Bettors can back the ‘over’ for a plus-130 return.
For the second straight time, I really like what Cincinnati did in the draft. The Bengals got a tight end in Jermaine Gresham, who missed last season after tearing his ACL at Oklahoma. In the second and third rounds, they got two players who should immediately contribute in Florida DE Carlos Dunlap and Texas WR Jordan Shipley, who got loose for several big plays against Alabama’s vaunted secondary during the BCS Championship Game.
Laveranues Coles was let go and will be replaced by Antonio Bryant, who struggled through an injury-riddled 2009 campaign but had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards in 2008. Of course, Chad Johnson will be Carson Palmer’s go-to guy, while Shipley will battle Andre Caldwell to be the team’s third receiver.
Marvin Lewis’s team has a win total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-150). I think the ‘under’ is a good look here, especially after reviewing Cincy’s schedule. Consider how tough it will be for the Bengals to win in these six road games: at New England, at Atlanta, at Indianapolis, at the Jets on a Thursday night, at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger will be back in December and at Baltimore. They also have to play San Diego and New Orleans at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cleveland’s number is 5 ½ ‘over (minus-125). The Browns won four in a row to end the regular season and save Eric Mangini’s job, but they still went 5-11 overall. Mike Holmgren has taken over in the front office and not surprisingly, there has been a lot of turnover in the personnel department.
Both QBs (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) are gone in favor of veteran Jake Delhomme, who once took the Panthers to the Super Bowl but had an abysmal 8/18 TD-INT ratio for Carolina in 2009. His competition is Senaca Wallace, who has plenty of experience from filling in for oft-injured Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck.
Now let’s examine the AFC East, which has the Jets with a win total of 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus-125) per Sportsbook.com. I like this ‘over’ for a plus-105 return and still have the J-E-T-S under consideration as possibly being my pick to win the Super Bowl.
Is there any team in the NFL that brought in more proven talent than the Jets during the offseason? The answer is a resounding ‘no.’ GM Mike Tannenbaum has been a busy man, trading for WR Santonio Holmes and CB Antonio Cromartie, in addition to signing the likes of pass-rushing specialist Jason Taylor and record-setting RB LaDainian Tomlinson.
We know Tomlinson has lost a few steps but with Thomas Jones gone, the veteran will be an excellent back-up to Shonn Greene. The club also brought in a pair of talented players through the draft that can make an instant impact. CB Kyle Wilson was the team’s first-round selection, and the All-American from Boise St. is a playmaker. Look for him in nickel and dime packages from the get-go and he could be a capable fill-in for Cromartie or Darrelle Revis, especially if the Pro-Bowler’s potential holdout becomes an issue. Finally, the Jets got great value with their fourth-round pick, Joe McKnight from USC, who can be a home-run threat on special teams.
New England’s win total is also 9 ½ shaded to the ‘over’ by a minus-125 price. Miami’s number is 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-120), while Buffalo has a win total of 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130).
The Pats continue to bring in past-their-prime veterans on the cheap. This time around, those players include WR Torry Holt, DT Gerard Warren and TE Alge Crumpler. In terms of fresh, young talent, Bill Belichick drafted a trio of Florida Gators who should get significant playing time as rookies.
Those UF products include DE Jermaine Cunningham, All-American LB Brandon Spikes and All-American TE Aaron Hernandez. The tight end is a special talent who certainly would’ve been a first-rounder if not for pre-draft rumors linking him to marijuana use. I think you look at the ‘over’ for the Pats or pass.
That’ll conclude our look at win totals for AFC teams, but be sure to check back this week for my breakdown of win tallies for the NFC squads.
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NFC Win Totals
By Brian Edwards
We examined the AFC recently, so now it’s time to touch on the NFC win totals. Let’s start with the NFC South and the defending Super Bowl champs, the New Orleans Saints.
Sean Payton’s squad has a win tally of 10 1/2 ‘under’ (minus-120) at Sportsbook.com, which has 20-cent lines for these types of wagers. Therefore, gamblers can get an even-money price to take ‘under’ 10 ½ for the Saints.
I loved New Orleans’ only major off-season addition, inking former Chicago Bear defensive end Alex Brown via free agency. He’ll take the place of DE Bobby McCray, who was subsequently released. The draft netted a cover corner in FSU’s Patrick Robinson, but this space is skeptical of Robinson being an impact player as a rookie.
Most importantly, all 11 starters return for the club’s high-octane offense led by Drew Brees. This unit will get back OT Jamaal Brown, who missed 2009 with an injury. From the draft, depth was added to the o-line with second-round pick Charles Brown from out of USC. In the third round, GM Mickey Loomis selected TE Jimmy Graham, who only played one year of football for the ‘Canes after being a basketball player. He has great size and athleticism that could turn him into the next Antonio Gates, although his hands must improve and drops like Graham had against Va. Tech last year won’t be tolerated at the next level.
The Saints will open with the Vikings at the Superdome before playing at San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 2. They play at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day with a chance to avenge their first loss of the 2009 campaign back in the Big Easy. Not sure if I’ll play it, but I lean to the ‘over’ for New Orleans, which looks like an 11-5 team or better assuming Brees is healthy for 16 games.
Atlanta is coming off a 9-7 season that represented the organization’s first time compiling a winning record in consecutive years. However, the Falcons came up short in their late-season quest for a playoff berth. Mid-season injuries to QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner (right when he was really getting it going) were a factor, and an overtime loss to the Giants proved to be the team’s undoing.
In 2010, Mike Smith’s squad has a win total of nine with Sportsbook.com shading the ‘over’ at minus-140. The Falcons play at Pittsburgh in Week 1 when the Steelers won’t have Ben Roethlisberger. They are short ‘chalk’ in the opener and will most likely be favored in road games at Cleveland, at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay.
I’m not crazy about the minus-140 price tag but if you can play ‘over’ nine for the Falcons at a better rate, I think that’s the way to go.
Carolina has a win total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-160) in what’s most likely a make-or-break year for John Fox’s tenure in Charlotte. Former QB Jake Delhomme couldn’t overcome his atrocious performance in the 2008 postseason home loss to Arizona, throwing 18 interceptions compared to just eight TD passes last season. That led to his exit from the Panthers, who also lost long-time Pro-Bowl DE Julius Peppers.
Matt Moore will try to hold off rookie second-round pick Jimmy Clausen for the starting spot under center. Moore played well in December, leading the Panthers to four wins in their last five games.
The ‘under’ is the play here, but I wouldn’t bet on it at the ‘chalky’ minus-160 price.
Finally, Tampa Bay rounds out the NFC South loop. The Bucs were predictably bad in ’09 and if their season win total (5 ½ ‘over’ -130) is an indicator, they are bound to struggle again this year.
Josh Freeman will look to improve on his rookie campaign in which he was thrust into a tough situation on a bad team. He had his moments, but the 10/18 touchdown-interception ratio tells the story. Freeman won’t have his best WR in Antonio Bryant anymore, but rookie Arrelious Benn (Illinois) should make an impact right away. Most notably, TE Kellen Winslow will try to duplicate a 77-catch season.
With the Bucs clearly not ready to contend, bettors should consider the ‘under’ or just pass.
Moving to the NFC East, Dallas owns the highest win total at 9 ½ ‘over’ (minus-180). Bettors can earn a lucrative plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160) by backing the ‘under.’
The Cowboys finally got their first postseason win in more than a decade last year, lifting a monster monkey off the franchise’s back. Tony Romo showed maturity and improvement which coincided with the belated absence of a certain team cancer that goes by the moniker of T.O.
In a change of pace from the norm, Jerry Jones and Co. were relatively idle during the offseason. The Cowboys return 20 of 22 starters and might benefit most from the addition of rookie WR Dez Bryant. The biggest loss was OT Flozell Adams, who did an excellent job of protecting the blind side of Dallas QBs for 12 years.
Philadelphia decided to pull the plug on the Donovan McNabb Era, so we’re poised to find out what Kevin Kolb is all about in 2010. This space has always been a huge supporter of McNabb, whose accomplishments were never fully appreciated by the masses in Philadelphia. Brian Westbrook is also gone and with the recent exits of Brian Dawkins and Jeremiah Trotter, there is a leadership void in the Eagles’ locker room.
On the bright side, there’s still dynamic playmaker DeSean Jackson, who had 62 receptions for 1,156 yards and nine touchdowns in ’09. Kolb also has another speedy weapon in Jeremy Maclin, in addition to one of the NFC’s top tight ends in Brent Celek (76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs in ’09).
Andy Reid’s team has a win tally of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130). I’ll pass but would go ‘under’ if I had to pick it.
Washington traded for McNabb and immediately got a major upgrade at the most important position on the field. The Redskins are hoping first-round pick Trent Williams can start right away and provide protection for McNabb.
Sportsbook.com has the ‘Skins set with a win total of 7 ½ flat (minus-110 either way).
As for the Giants, gamblers are looking at 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-125). They had better go ‘over’ or Tom Coughlin might be out of a job, especially after a pair of blowout losses to end the season at 8-8 in ‘09.
The G-Men are rebuilding their much-maligned secondary, as evidenced by the additions of veteran safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant. However, third-round pick Chad Jones was seriously injured in a recent car wreck and his broken leg is expected to keep him out in 2010 and perhaps beyond. This is a huge loss because Jones, a two-sport star in football and baseball at LSU, is a first-round talent.
The defense lost its heart and soul in LB Antonio Pierce, but I like the first-round selection of Jason Pierre-Paul, who could be a pass-rushing force from the get-go. The offense should thrive, returning all 11 starters. Nevertheless, I think you pass on the G-Men because of some questions marks on defense, in addition to the uncertainty around the Eagles and ‘Skins, two division rivals who are breaking in new QBs.
In the NFC West, Arizona took a huge hit when Kurt Warner decided to hang up his cleats. Therefore, we’re going to find out if Matt Leinart has it or not. If he doesn’t, head coach Ken Whisenhunt has Derek Anderson as a Plan B. Whoever is under center, he won’t have Anquan Boldin but will have perhaps the NFL’s premier wideout in Larry Fitzgerald.
Boldin and Warner aren’t the only long-time Cardinals who won’t be around after back-to-back playoff appearances. LB Karlos Dansby, DE Bertrand Berry, CB Bryant McFadden and safety Anrel Rolle have all left the desert. The result is lower expectations from the oddsmakers, who have the Cardinals with a win total of 7 ½ that’s shaded to the ‘over’ (minus-125) at Sportsbook.com.
Arizona did sign a pair of former Pro-Bowlers in LB Joey Porter and OG Alan Faneca. Also, I think first-round pick Dan Williams from out of Tennessee can start as a rookie. The defensive losses would concern me if I was considering the ‘over,’ but I’m one of those that believes Leinart is going to be solid (not great by any means, but a better-than-average starting QB).
Seattle certainly made a splash by luring Southern Cal’s Pete Carroll back to the NFL. His non-stop enthusiasm appears to have been happily accepted by the Seahawks players here in the early going of mini-camps and whatnot. But as we know, winning is the only thing that matters in this league, so we’ll see if Carroll’s third tour of duty as an NFL head coach turns out to be successful.
If that’s going to happen in Year 1, veteran signal caller Matt Hasselbeck has to stay healthy and return to the form he demonstrated in leading Seattle to the Super Bowl several years back. Hasselbeck could get some help from second-round pick Golden Tate, who was a playmaker during his college days at Notre Dame.
Tate isn’t the only rookie Carroll is expecting to produce right away. The Seahawks plucked Oklahoma St. OT Russell Okung with its No. 6 pick and then nabbed Earl Thomas, who some felt was the best cover corner in this draft.
Seattle’s tally is 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-140).
San Francisco has been saddled with a win total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-145). The 49ers, who went 8-8 in ’09, return all 22 starters but the question remains: Is Alex Smith a playoff-caliber NFL quarterback.
Without a doubt, Frank Gore is that type of player. The workhorse RB rushed for 1,120 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry last season. Vernon Davis, the TE out of Maryland, enjoyed a breakout year with 78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 TD grabs. On the defensive side, LB Patrick Willis is in his prime and might be the best player in all of football.
Nevertheless, I can’t trust Smith, or back-up David Carr, to lead the Niners to nine victories. I have to pass on their win total.
Expectations aren’t high in St. Louis and its win total of five ‘under’ (minus-120) makes that clear. The Rams took Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford with the No. 1 pick and most expect the rookie to start immediately. He has one of the best RBs in football (Steven Jackson) to lean on, but the rest of the supporting cast is shaky at best.
We wrap up the NFC with the North Division. Minnesota and Green Bay both have 9 ½ as their numbers, but it’s more expensive (minus-160) to take the ‘over’ for the Packers. The Vikings have the ‘over’ shaded by minus-125 at Sportsbook.com.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards with a 30/7 TD-INT ratio en route to taking Green Bay back to the playoffs, where he nearly orchestrated an improbable comeback win in an overtime loss at Arizona. All of his cohorts on offense are back. In fact, the lone starter that’s not returning is DE Aaron Kampman.
The Vikings have completely stood pat as well, returning all 22 starters. They did get a potential impact player in Stanford RB Toby Gerhart, who was a second-round pick. I expect Sidney Rice to continue to improve and with Brett Favre staying healthy as always, there’s no reason to think the Minny offense won’t click on all cylinders once again.
I’m real bullish on the ‘over’ for the Vikings, who I have going 11-5.
Chicago is hoping for better results in the second year of the Jay Cutler Era. The former Bronco threw an NFL-high 26 interceptions. If Cutler can’t cut the picks in half, it’s nearly a given that head coach Lovie Smith will be looking for a new job. The Bears have a win total of eight ‘over’ (minus-120).
Detroit has only won two games the last two years, but there are signs that things are about to get better. QB Matthew Stafford showed a lot of potential as a rookie and he has one of the best WRs in football in Calvin Johnson.
The Lions added a pair of outstanding veterans in DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and TE Tony Scheffler. In the draft, the No. 2 pick netted Ndamukong Suh, who I expect to be a Pro-Bowler a rookie. They also drafted a playmaker in Jahvid Best, a speedy RB who enjoyed a stellar collegiate career at California.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Like the Matt Mauck-Brian Brohm situation in Green Bay, don’t be shocked if Carolina’s sixth-round pick Tony Pike doesn’t turn out to be better than Clausen, a second-rounder.
Vintage third-round pick by Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff: Alabama OG Mike Johnson. He’s a guarantee to be a starter for years to come.
The Falcons also get their 2009 first-round pick Peria Jerry back after he sustained a season-ending ACL injury in Week 2. Jerry, who dominated SEC foes as a senior at Ole Miss in ’08, should wreak havoc on opposing backfields if his knee is back to 100 percent.
I loved the value the Eagles got out of their late-round picks like Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley (4th), Clemson LB Ricky Sapp (5th), Florida WR Riley Cooper (5th), LSU RB Charles Scott (6th), Mississippi St. LB Jamar Chaney (7th) and Georgia DT Jeff Owens (7th).
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