NFC Championship News and Notes

NFL Championship Games: Against The Spread Trends
By:Craig Trapp

Hopefully this past weekend all of you followed the divisional match up trends which showed the underdogs the last five years covered 80 percent of the time. Well this year its only 75 percent with the underdogs winning straight up in all three of those games. Now lets look at the recent trends for both of these games to help clue us in on which trend plays we should be looking at this weekend.

Eagles @ Arizona- The NFC contest is a rematch from thanksgiving day when Philly embarrassed Arizona in Philly. The odds makers have started this spread as the Eagles favored -3! Below is some hot trends from both trends.

-Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

-Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Arizona

-Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

-Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Looking at these games shows us that both these teams are not only quality teams but great against the spread also. Really tough to see any trends that make one team really jump out so think that you need to go to your other handicapping methods to get this winner.

Eagles-Cardinals Preview
By Josh Jacobs

It’s the last week of football until the much anticipated, Super Bowl XLIII gets underway on Feb. 1, 2009. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Money will be moving at a frenetic pace, signaling the end of another incredible season. And again, we’re faced with the ultimate question asked time and again; what direction is your money moving in?

The NFC Championship Game will feature a duel between Arizona (11-7 straight up, 11-7 against the spread) and Philadelphia (11-6-1 SU, 12-6 ATS) at 3:00 p.m. EST. Finishing first in its division, the Cardinals will get home field advantage. While the AFC contest in Pittsburgh will be played in 20 degree weather, Arizona will enjoy a comfortable 77 degrees under the sun (although we can expect the roof to be closed over University of Phoenix Stadium).

The Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner is the first factor to mull over. His 7-2 career record in the postseason includes passing for a 63 completion percentage for 2,712 yards with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. There’s no questioning Warner’s resume since entering the NFL in 1998.

If your thinking of laying down the budget on the money line, Arizona is currently catching a +160 (bet $100 to make $160) price tag. For the more traditional approach, the Eagles have been installed as 3 ½-point to four-point visiting favorites, with a total set at 47 ½. As of mid-week, 75 percent of the betting public is laying their cash down on Philly minus the points.

Turnovers will be an important angle to follow in Sunday’s kickoff. Coming of their 33-13 whooping over the Panthers last week, the Cardinals now own a plus-seven turnover ratio in the playoffs (two fumble recoveries and seven interceptions versus Warner throwing just two picks). The Eagles find themselves in the positive at plus-one in the turnover ratio department but at the cost of losing one fumble and three interceptions.

Then there’s Arizona’s surprisingly improved defense, a core of players responsible for giving up 19.3 PPG in the last three games versus 35.4 PPG allowed from Week 12 to 16. This is a ‘D’ who’s helped the Cards cover three straight games, but was 4-5 ATS after the bye week to week 16.

And how can we overlook an Arizona offense that’s scored under 29 points at home just once this entire season? It was back on Week 15 that the Vikings waltzed into Glendale, Arizona, shutting down the Cardinals machine of an offense to 14 points allowed. When Arizona has scored 30 or more points, the team has gone 8-1 SU and ATS in both postseason and regular season play.

The other part to this feel good story is Philadelphia’s unlikely climb to the top. Thanks to the Bears losing and the Raiders taking the ‘W’ during Week 17, Philadelphia defied the odds and became the reason for more celebration in the streets of Pennsylvania.

Now at +180 (bet $100 to win $180) to win Super Bowl XLIII, the Eagles will need to call upon signal caller, Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and the entire defense for a shot at greatness.

The point was made in the Giants-Eagles preview last week but it’s worth repeating. Philly is 6-1 SU and ATS since McNabb was benched in a 36-7 loss in Baltimore during Week 12. Since then, the Eagles have spearheaded their opponents by posting 27.7 PPG versus giving up a stingy 12 PPG.

The defensive effort from Philadelphia has translated into an ‘under’ record of 4-1-1 in the last six. This same endeavor in the trenches has helped the team outyard the opposition seven times in the last 10 games.

Just keep in mind that this will be the third road game in a row, one in which will require the Eagles to travel across country to the West Coast. The team has gone 2-0 SU and ATS this season out West (40-26 win in San Francisco on Week 6 and 26-7 victory in Seattle during Week 9).

Jamie Tursini, Vegasinsider.com’s No. 1 NFL handicapper this season, explains some interesting angles outside the box. “Since 1983 home dogs are 1-2-1 ATS in the Conference Finals. When the home team has eight days of rest versus the visiting squad who has seven days, the home club is a slumbering 9-14-1 ATS. And teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs the week before (Eagles over the Giants, 23-11), are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS the following week.

In the totals department, the Cardinals are a blistering 8-1 on the ‘over’ when playing at home. We’re talking about a fast track inside University of Phoenix Stadium with a climate controlled environment helping out offensive matters. Combine this with names like the Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald, QB Kurt Warner and versatile back, Tim Hightower’s 10 TD seasonal performance and a total set anywhere from 47 to 49 ½ doesn’t seem all too high.

Only twice this season have the Cardinals seen a total in this same range. Coincidently it was in last week’s divisional win over Carolina, 33-13, that the ‘under’ cashed tickets for the sixth time at a set 49 ½.

As a side conversation, Philadelphia’s slinger McNabb has been outstanding in the last seven games, throwing for 237.6 YPG with 11 TDs, only four picks equating to a 93.8 QB rating.

In one of his biggest days of the season, McNabb passed for 260 yards with four scores in a crushing, 48-20 win over Arizona back on Nov. 27. RB Brian Westbrook, who will look to explode out of the backfield after being held to just 36 yards on 18 carries last week, added 110 rushing yards with two scores on his own. The big problem circulating around the Eagles’ camp is that Westbrook reinjured his swollen left knee in the win over the Giants but expects to participate in this weekend’s contest.

All in all, Philadelphia covered the three-point spread during their solo meeting against the Cards during the regular season. The same contest easily cleared the 48 ½-point total set by most books.

The Eagles are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings versus Arizona, while the ‘over’ has been money at 7-3 in the last 10 clashes.

vegasinsider.com

What bettors need to know: NFC championship game
By MATT SEVERANCE

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4, 47)

Line movement

It opened at a field goal at most books and has jumped a point toward Philly. Reportedly, about 75 percent of all the betting money is on the Eagles as of this writing. The total, meanwhile, has varied at most sites and has changed as much as two points, but it's generally down about a point from opening.

Weather

Come on, it's Arizona. It is supposed to be beautiful. But it won’t matter - the Cards are expected to have the University of Phoenix Stadium roof closed. That was the case for Arizona's wild-card victory over Atlanta and the team no doubt will want to enhance the crowd noise in the biggest home game in Arizona Cardinals history.

“I’m looking forward to seeing a whole new level this week because that first week against the Falcons was unbelievable,” coach Ken Whisenhunt said to reporters. “I can only imagine what it’s going to be like this week — but I’m very excited about that.”

For what it's worth, the home team has up to 90 minutes before kickoff to decide. The Eagles have been piping in crowd noise at their practices to prepare.

First meeting

You may not remember this game because you could have been sleeping off that turkey dinner at the time, but Donovan McNabb returned from a benching the week before against Baltimore and threw four touchdowns in a Thanksgiving night 48-20 rout of Arizona in Philadelphia.

Eagles running back Brian Westbrook matched McNabb's four scores, becoming the fourth player in NFL history with two rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns and 100-plus rushing yards in a game.

The Eagles held Arizona to 25 yards rushing, 260 total yards and just 12 first downs. That was also the last game that Philadelphia allowed more than 14 points.

Injury report

Arizona will be without tight end Stephen Spach, who tore his ACL against Carolina. Spach wasn't much of a pass-catcher, although he did make a key grab on third-and-16 in the Atlanta game to essentially clinch the win for Arizona. His blocking was also considered a big part of the Cards' recent resurgence on the ground.

Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick, who both have been ailing, likely will share time replacing Spach. The team also brought back Jerame Tuman.

The good news for Arizona backers is that Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin will play. He practiced Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out the win over Carolina following his hammy injury suffered against the Falcons. He guaranteed he would be on the field Sunday.

Boldin is ready for a little redemption. In the Thanksgiving night loss to Philly, he had five catches for 63 yards but a dropped pass in the end zone and had a fumble. He said afterward it might have been his worst game as a pro.

For the Eagles, running back Brian Westbrook returned to a limited practice on Friday after not practicing at all Wednesday or Thursday. He reportedly reinjured his knee in the Giant game, but he is probable.

“It just feels good right now,” Westbrook said. “I don’t worry about it at all. My knee’s fine.”

Also probable for Philly are right tackle Jon Runyan and fullback Dan Klecko. Former All-Pro guard Shane Andrews, out since Week 2, actually practiced some this week but won't play. He could return for the Super Bowl, however.

The injuries aren't limited to the players for Philly. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson isn’t sure yet where he will coach from. Johnson threw his back out a few weeks ago and has a bulging disc. He coached from the press box in last week's win over the Giants and it seemed to work. Philly held the G-Men to no touchdowns and just three field goals on five trips inside the 20.

Secondary coach Sean McDermott signaled plays to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley against New York. Johnson said there's "a pretty good chance" they'll use the same arrangement against Arizona.

This and that

The Cardinals are the first team to go 9-7 in the regular season and then host a conference championship game.

Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is 7-2 in the postseason and has a 63 percent completion percentage with 2,712 yards and 19 touchdowns against just 12 picks. Warner has thrown an interception in both playoff games this year, but Arizona is a whopping plus-7 in turnover differential (and 9-0 this year when getting two turnovers). The Cardinals had just 13 interceptions in the regular season, yet have seven in two playoff games –thank you, Jake Delhomme.

The Eagles' Westbrook hasn’t rushed for more than 53 yards or higher than a 3.8-yards-per-carry average since Week 14. He is averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in the postseason. Subtract his 71-yard TD on a screen pass in the wild-card game versus Minnesota and he is averaging just 3.6 yards per touch in the last five games.

Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 14 receptions, 267 receiving yards and two touchdowns in these playoffs, and that's without Boldin around for a game-and-a-half. Fitzgerald had two touchdowns in the first meeting with Philly. However, the Eagles have allowed just 322 total passing yards and picked off three passes in the first two playoff games.

In the Eagles' last seven games, McNabb has completed 63.3 percent of his pass attempts and has thrown 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions – although two of those picks came last week and one came against the Vikings.

The Arizona offense has scored fewer than 29 points at home only once this season and when Arizona has scored 30 or more points, the Cards are 8-1 ATS.

Nine times overall has a team in NFL history lost to another team by 28-plus points in the regular season and then avenged that loss with a playoff victory.