Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
The Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Louisiana Superdome in the NFC Championship Game.
Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 4-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 53.
The Vikings defeated Dallas 34-3 as a 2.5-point favorite last week in the Divisional Round. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total (45).
Brett Favre passed for 234 yards with four touchdown passes for Minnesota, and Sidney Rice caught six passes for 141 yards with three touchdowns in that win.
Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes to lead the Saints to a 45-14 win over the Cardinals in the Divisional Round.
The Saints had no trouble covering the 7-point spread in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (57).
Team records:
Minnesota: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New Orleans: 13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 7-3
New Orleans most recently:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games
New Orleans is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Vikings at Saints
By Kevin Rogers
The last obstacle to jump before heading to South Florida for Super Bowl XLII is winning the NFC Title Game. The top two seeds will battle it out under the Louisiana Superdome when the 13-3 Saints host the 12-4 Vikings.
Both teams are coming off impressive blowout victories in the Divisional Playoff round to advance this stage. New Orleans stomped Arizona, 45-14, moving on to its second NFC Title game in four seasons. Minnesota destroyed Dallas, 34-3 as 2 ½-point favorites, concluding the season 9-0 at the Metrodome.
The Saints stumbled into the postseason with three consecutive losses following a franchise-best 13-0 start. New Orleans rebounded nicely with the obliteration of the reigning NFC Champion Cardinals, snapping a 5-game ATS losing streak. After posting a 6-0 SU/ATS mark to begin the season, the Saints did very little favors to their backers, going 3-8 ATS, including a 2-4 ATS ledger the last six at the Superdome.
The Vikings saved their worst football for the final month of the regular season, posting 2-3 SU/ATS record the last five weeks of 2009. Minnesota's destruction of Dallas helped silence any question about the Vikings being a legit threat in the NFC. The Metrodome was the backdrop for nine Minnesota victories in which the Vikes scored at least 27 points in each win.
With Brett Favre and the Vikings hitting the road for this NFC Title Game, many bettors will point to Minnesota's struggles in losses at Chicago, Carolina, and Arizona over the last six weeks. The Vikes did have problems against the Panthers and Cardinals, but were edged by the Bears in overtime. Minnesota was listed as an underdog twice this season, splitting the two contests. The Vikings lost a back-and-forth game at Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs, while winning at Lambeau Field over the Packers as 3 ½-point 'dogs.
Minnesota's defense on the road wasn't spectacular over the last five games, allowing 29 ppg. That was in stark contrast to the 14 ppg allowed the first three away contests. The explanation is easy on why the defensive efforts suffered as the season wore on. The initial three games were against the Browns, Lions, and Rams - three of the seven worst offenses in the league.
New Orleans' biggest problems trying to cover numbers have been the inflated ones. The Saints are 4-7 ATS laying at least a touchdown, but own a perfect 5-0 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or less. Extending things back to start the 2008, Sean Payton's team is 10-1 ATS as 'chalk' of less than six points. Who do you think that lone loss was to? Yep, the Vikings on Monday Night last October. Minnesota held off New Orleans, 30-27 as three-point 'dogs, despite a pair of punt return touchdowns by Reggie Bush. The quarterback that led the Vikings to victory in the Big Easy was none other than...Gus Frerotte. And interestingly, Chester Taylor threw more touchdown passes than Frerotte (1-0).
VI capper Joe Nelson says this matchup is what most fans expected in the NFC, "These were the two teams that looked the best in the NFC for most of the season until some momentum was lost late in the year, but this game makes for an incredibly intriguing and potentially entertaining matchup. The Saints, meanwhile, lost twice at home late in the season and the home-field edge does not have quite the cache it once did."
The conference championships over the last five years haven't exactly been defensive battles. Four of the last five conference title games in each league have seen the 'over' hit, including each of the championships in 2008. Arizona and Philadelphia combined to score 57 points, easily eclipsing the "47" posted by the oddmakers. In the AFC, the Ravens and Steelers barely broke the 'over' of "35" with a 23-14 final.
The lone 'unders' in the previous five seasons in this round were the 2007 AFC Title Game between the Chargers and Patriots ('under' 48) and the 2004 NFC Title Game involving the Eagles and Falcons ('under' 37 ½).
The favorites have alternated covering the AFC Championship over the last five seasons, with the Steelers cashing as 'chalk' in '08. The underdogs are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two NFC Championships with the Cardinals and Giants taking the down the money when getting points.
The two players to focus on will be the signal-callers, according to Nelson, "This match-up will be about the quarterbacks as both Favre and Drew Brees delivered incredible statistical seasons. The numbers are very similar with 37 touchdowns, while Brees had a slightly higher completion percentage and Favre threw fewer interceptions. The season statistics give a big edge to Minnesota on defense, yielding 55 fewer yards per game. The Vikings showed some vulnerability against Felix Jones and the Dallas rushing attack last week, but for the year allowed just 87 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota's pass rush has been dominant in big games with great efforts against the Packers and a huge day last week with six sacks while also forcing three turnovers."
This will be Favre's fifth conference championship appearance in his career, going 2-2 with the Packers. Location didn't matter, with Favre compiling a 1-1 record each at home and on the road in conference title games. Brees owns a 2-2 career playoff record, with three of those games coming at home.
Nelson says at least one of these teams will finally leap an elusive hurdle, "One thing is clear, the postseason demons for one franchise will be cleared up as New Orleans has never been to the Super Bowl and the Vikings have failed in prime opportunities, including four straight NFC championship losses. Minnesota's running game has not been able to perform in recent weeks and the Vikings will have a hard time keeping pace in a shootout in this environment. Look for the Saints to deliver at home as Minnesota got its big win when doubted last week, while the Saints will have big play potential."
The Saints are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, with the total set at 53. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need To Know: Vikings at Saints
By PATRICK GARBIN
In a battle between the league’s highest-scoring teams and the two highest-rated quarterbacks, the Vikings and Saints face off for the NFC Championship in New Orleans’ Superdome.
This is the Saints second NFC title game in team history, having lost to Chicago three years ago, 39-14, as 2.5-point dogs. The Vikings are 3-4 straight up and 2-4-1 against the spread in conference championships, losing their last four SU and ATS.
Line movement
New Orleans opened as a 4-point favorite and the line increased to 4.5, but has since dropped to 3.5 and could be as low as 3 by kickoff. The total opened at 53 and can be found at 52.5 in some markets.
More than four out of five bettors wagering on the moneyline are taking Minnesota at +160. For those who like New Orleans, laying the points and not considering the moneyline seems like the smart choice for this particular game (see the first “trend” at the bottom).
Significant injuries
According to the Star Tribune, Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin missed Thursday’s practice due to a migraine.
Migraines caused the star wide receiver to miss a regular-season game six weeks ago and also slowed Harvin the following week. The two consecutive games in mid-December Harvin missed, were Brett Favre’s two worst (as far as passer rating) of the season.
“ expect [Harvin] to be OK,” said Minnesota head coach Brad Childress. “He has to take care of [the migraine]. It’s not something you can fight through.”
Harvin was named the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season and set a team record for all-purpose yardage (2,081).
No place like home
While the Vikings were 9-0 this season at home in the comfy confines of the Metrodome, they have only a 4-4 record on the road and haven’t won an away game in nearly three months.
In their last three road games – losses to Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago – Minnesota was more than a touchdown favorite on average but lost the three contests by an average of nearly two touchdowns.
The Vikings must perform under the pressure of the Superdome, regarded as one of the loudest and most intimidating environments in the NFL.
“Not only are you playing the Saints, but you’re playing their fans,” said Favre.
Last week, the Superdome crowd was considered the loudest it has been all season and was certainly a factor in New Orleans’ 31-point win over Arizona. This week, Favre and the Vikings can expect it to be even louder.
Run, Adrian, Run
Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100+ yards in eight consecutive games after gaining 100 or more in 19 of his first 39 regular-season games in the NFL.
The three-time Pro-Bowler is due for a breakout game, especially considering the last time these two teams played (Oct. 6, 2008) Peterson had one of the worst performances of his career (21 carries, 32 yards).
The Saints biggest weakness may be its run defense. New Orleans allowed 122.2 rushing yards per game (21st in NFL) and 4.5 yards per carry (26th) during the regular season.
Establishing the run and riding Peterson would help quiet the raucous crowd and keep Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the explosive New Orleans offense off the field.
Key matchup
Safety Darren Sharper spearheads a Saints secondary that held Kurt Warner in check after he had arguably the best passing performance ever in NFL playoff history the week before against Green Bay.
Statistically, Favre is having the best season of his illustrious, 19-year career; however, the 40-year-old quarterback and his teams have often struggled in the playoffs (4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS since 1997).
If New Orleans’ defense, and end Will Smith in particular, can apply consistent pressure, Favre, as he has demonstrated in past playoff games, may become rattled, force the football into coverage and commit turnovers.
Trends
Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the winning teams of the conference championship games (NFC and AFC) are 65-0-2 ATS when the line is less than 10 points.
In 38 of the 78 conference championship games, or nearly half, the margin of victory has been 14 points or more.
Minnesota is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS versus New Orleans since 1992; the over is 8-2 in these 10 games.
New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) at New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS)
The top two teams in the conference all season long will square off in the NFC Championship Game, with the No. 1-seeded Saints playing host to Brett Favre and the second-seeded Vikings at the Superdome.
New Orleans, which won its first 13 games of the regular season (8-5 ATS) but went 0-3 SU and ATS down the stretch, showed the bye week was just what it needed last Saturday, throttling fourth-seeded Arizona 45-14 Saturday as a seven-point favorite. The Saints gave up a 70-yard TD run on the game’s first play from scrimmage before scoring 45 of the next 52 points. In easily cashing against the Cardinals, New Orleans ended an 0-5 ATS skid.
QB Drew Brees (23 of 32, 247 yards, 3 TDs) led a turnover-free offense, and Reggie Bush had a TD run of 46 yards and an 83-yard punt-return TD that capped the scoring midway through the third quarter. The defense, meanwhile, forced two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble recovery) en route to dethroning the defending NFC champions.
Minnesota had a first-round bye as well and also proceeded to win in surprisingly easy fashion, dominating Dallas in a 34-3 beatdown as a 2½-point home chalk last Sunday. Favre was efficient and effective, going 15 of 24 for 234 yards and a playoff career-high four TDs. The Vikings’ defense beat up on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, sacking him six times while forcing an INT and three fumbles (recovering two) to win the turnover battle 3-0.
The Vikes went on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid in December, costing them a shot to be hosting this week’s game, but they’ve rebounded by outscoring their past two opponents – the Giants in the regular-season finale and the Pokes last week – by a whopping total of 78-10.
New Orleans is in the playoffs after a two-year drought and has reached its second conference title game in four years. The Saints made a run at the Super Bowl following the 2006 regular season, topping Philadelphia 27-24 at home as a 5½-point chalk in the divisional round before getting ripped in chilly Chicago 39-14 as a 2½-point pup in the NFC Championship Game.
New Orleans has never reached the Super Bowl and is fighting some negative recent history within its conference, as the No. 1 seed in the NFC hasn’t advanced to the Super Bowl since the Rams did so in 1999. Additionally, the last time both top seeds qualified for the Super Bowl was back in 1993.
Minnesota, the NFC North champ for the second straight year after a three-year playoff hiatus, bounced back nicely from its short postseason stay last season, when it lost at home to Philadelphia 26-14 as a three-point wild-card pup. The Vikings have reached the Super Bowl four times – losing all four – but haven’t gotten a shot at the Lombardi Trophy since Super Bowl XI, losing 32-14 to Oakland 33 years ago.
Minnesota lost its last two NFC title-game appearances, both as a chalk – 30-27 in overtime to Atlanta as a whopping 10½-point home favorite after the 1998 season, and a 41-0 blowout two years later against the Giants laying three points on the road.
The week before that loss to the Giants, Minnesota bested New Orleans 34-16 in the divisional round as an eight-point home favorite. That contest began a 5-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry for the Vikings, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes. Most recently, Minnesota squeaked out a 30-27 Monday Night road win as a three-point pup in October 2008. Also, the SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, the winner is 4-0 ATS in the Saints’ last four overall and 10-0-1 ATS in Minnesota’s last 11.
New Orleans led the league in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s – a trend they continued with last week’s rout. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth), as he threw for 4,388 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs against just 11 INTs.
Brees was also the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes, and four Saints finished with at least 550 yards receiving, paced by Marques Colston (1,074 yards, 9 TDs). Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 357.8 ypg (25th) and 21.3 ppg (20th), but the Saints posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL, and they are now plus-13 after last week’s effort, the best margin of any of the remaining playoff teams.
New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Favre, at age 40, paced the NFL’s fifth-best total offense (379.6 ypg) in the regular season, with the passing game netting 259.8 ypg (eighth). Favre threw for 4,202 yards (ninth) and had 33 TDs – tied for second with Peyton Manning – against just seven INTs, which tied for the second-lowest total. WR Sidney Rice (84 catches, 1,316 yards, 8 TDs) was the main threat for a team that averaged 29.4 ppg, second only to New Orleans. Rice had three TD catches last week.
RB Adrian Peterson’s numbers were down this year, though he still finished with 1,389 yards rushing and 18 TDs, along with 43 catches for another 436 yards.
Defensively, Minnesota allowed 305.5 ypg (sixth) and 19.5 ppg (10th). The Vikings really made their mark by hounding quarterbacks, as they racked up a league-best 48 sacks, helping them post a plus-6 turnover margin (ninth). Jared Allen had 14½ sacks, the second-best total in the league, and fellow defensive end Ray Edwards (8½ regular-season sacks) had three sacks in last week’s win over Dallas. Minnesota also sported the second-best rush defense, yielding only 87.1 ypg on the ground.
The Saints are on ATS upswings of 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 11-3 when laying 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 as a home chalk of that same price, 9-3-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 against winning teams and 5-1 following a SU win of more than 14 points. In addition, home teams in the NFC Championship Game are on a 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS run.
On the flip side, New Orleans also shoulders negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall (all within the NFC), 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 in January and 2-6 following a SU win. Also, since 1977, teams that scored 40 or more points in the divisional round are 9-4 SU but just 4-9 ATS (1-6 ATS last 7).
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against winning teams and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 NFC matchups. However, they are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 on the highway, 1-4 as a playoff pup, 1-4 in playoff roadies, 8-17-1 coming off a SU win of more than 14 points and 7-15 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Furthermore, visiting teams coming off a victory of 30 or more points are 0-4 SU and ATS in conference title contests.
Despite its high-octane offense, New Orleans sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 5-2 as a favorite, while the under for the equally potent Vikings is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 5-0-1 in the postseason, 7-2-1 in January, 6-2 against NFC opponents, 36-15-1 after a spread-cover and 35-16-1 following a SU win.
On the flip side, the over for the Saints is on sprees of 4-0-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in January and 18-7-1 following an ATS victory, and the over is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 starts as a road ‘dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes, with the 30-27 shootout in New Orleans last season easily clearing the 47-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Minnesota at New Orleans Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone
Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees. That sets the stage for what should be a highly entertaining NFC Championship encounter. In interviews this week, both quarterbacks have expressed the belief they were destined to be on these particular teams after believing they were no longer wanted by a previous employer.
Favre has enjoyed the ride this season, being in a place we wanted after rightfully or wrongly feeling his services were no longer required in Green Bay after losing NFC title game two years ago. Whether its the motivation of winning another Super Bowl and going out on top like John Elway did (something hes always craved) or sticking it to the Packers organization, or both, the 40-year old quarterback has played with a sense of urgency, knowing his football clock is ticking.
Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is three-point underdog with total of 53 at Betonline.com, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe its because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, hes noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.
Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson cant get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.
Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFLs best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.
If the Vikings cant generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the Who Dat talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.
In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. Thats not to say Brees cant have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.
The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they cant allow the leagues top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.
New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.
For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.