NFC North Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
In most sports, the season is long enough that most schedules even out but in the NFL the schedules are far from equal. The formula which places division against division and then place against place helps create the alleged parity that keeps the NFL interesting year to year and allows for teams to make quick turnarounds or falls. Over the next few weeks some analysis of the schedules for each division can give you a great gauge on what to expect this year, assuming all the games get played.
NFC North: The North has captured a lot of storylines in the past few seasons with the great Super Bowl run from the Packers last season, the on-going Brett Favre saga as well as some big moves from the Bears and an improving Lions team. In 2011 a lot of attention will again be on the NFC North and it should again be a very competitive division. While Green Bay won the Super Bowl last season it was Chicago that won the division. Detroit finished 6-10 but was just -7 in point differential and while the Vikings struggled at 6-10 as well, Minnesota played tough with some of the top teams in the league has plenty of talent to make a quick rise in the standings under the new coaching staff, provided that the Vikings find a solution at quarterback. Last season the NFC North had to play the AFC East and NFC East teams, making for some of the tougher schedules in the league, this year the division draws the AFC West and the NFC South, which should make for slightly easier schedules for each of these four teams.
Chicago Bears: It is far too early to think about these types of scenarios but if the NFL work stoppage would wipe out the first few weeks of the season the Bears would stand to be one of the teams that would benefit the most in terms of the schedule. Chicago opens the season with a bang playing Atlanta, New Orleans, and Green Bay the first three weeks of the season. Two of the three games are at home but those are expected to be three of the elite teams in the NFC. Chicago finished 11-5 last season compared to Green Bay at 10-6, even though the Packers were 100 points better in point differential on the season. Chicago caught some good fortune and snuck out a few close games but that said the Bears were one play away from beating the Packers in the NFC Championship game with a 3rd-string QB that had very little experience. Chicago must play a first place schedule but that may actually be an advantage this season as they will draw Seattle and Philadelphia while many might say that the second or third place draws from those divisions may be tougher this season. In the AFC West games the Bears travel to Oakland and Denver late in the season while hosting San Diego and Kansas City. All four AFC West games will be in consecutive weeks in the second half of the year. The Bears do not play consecutive road games in consecutive weeks all season long until the final two weeks where they go to Green Bay and Minnesota for the final two games. The Bears will also play just seven true road games as they will face Tampa Bay in London in the middle of the season, just before a week 8 bye week. Overall the schedule should be fairly favorable for the Bears and another double-digit win season is more than possible. As far as first place schedules go this will not be a difficult one and if Chicago can survive the opening gauntlet without a 0-3 start they will have a good chance to be a playoff contender.
Detroit Lions: The Lions showed a lot of promise last season despite battling through QB injuries all year. Detroit finished the season with four consecutive wins and six of ten losses came by five or fewer points. Detroit beat Green Bay and Minnesota last season and should have defeated the Bears in the controversial opening loss last season so they picked up critical ground in what was recently a wide-gap in the division. Detroit became a feared defense last season even if the overall numbers were not outstanding and if the team can ever get a full season with Matthew Stafford healthy this looks like a team that can challenge for a winning record. A lot of people will like what the Lions have going for them this season but the schedule is not terribly kind. Detroit will open the season with three of the first four games on the road and the first five games will be against quality defenses that could test Detroit’s health again. By virtue of the tiebreak Detroit earns the third place schedule instead of the fourth place schedule and the two games impacted provide a big difference, facing Dallas and San Francisco instead of Washington and Arizona who the Vikings will face. Detroit’s schedule with the AFC West and the NFC South mirrors Chicago’s schedule with road games at Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South and at Denver and Oakland in the AFC West. Detroit will face a brutal final six weeks of the season with Green Bay twice, New Orleans, Minnesota, Oakland, and San Diego so even a promising start could be wiped out with a rough finish to the season. The bye week is centrally placed in week 9, prior to a big division game with Chicago and home games with San Francisco and Carolina should provide good opportunities for wins but it will be tough for the Lions to make a significant move in the NFC standings, especially if they struggle in what will be a tough opening month.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers will be a rare Super Bowl champion that returns the next season to a second place schedule. The second place schedule means games with the Giants and the Rams so in reality there is not a great advantage gained by that slotting as the NFC was fairly balanced last season. The Packers will open the season in primetime against New Orleans but the early season schedule is very favorable overall and it would not be a surprise at all if the Packers look like the team to beat again at the midpoint of the season. Green Bay plays five of the first eight on the road but overall the Packers will play just five games against teams that made the playoffs last season. Green Bay plays San Diego and Kansas City on the road in the AFC West so it will be an arguably tougher draw than the Bears or Lions face but getting the Saints and Buccaneers at home should be an advantage in the NFC South match-ups. The trip to San Diego is the only west coast travel of the season and that game comes off a bye which could help the cause, although it is sandwiched between two games against the rival Vikings. Three of the final four games of the season are at home so if the Packers need another late season push to the playoffs it will be a favorable closing stretch. Green Bay has several marquee games this season including four night games and three holiday games so handling the extra pressure and expectations of being the champions may be the biggest challenge of the season. The Packers have a very favorable schedule that should have most people projecting one of the top records in the NFC and this should again be a team that is one of the few Super Bowl favorites, as few defending champions get this type of draw the next season.
Minnesota Vikings: The prolonged lockout could really hurt the Vikings as they are going through a coaching change with Leslie Frazier hired after taking over for the final few games last season. Minnesota has big questions at QB with unproven Joe Webb taking many of the snaps late in the season last year and many rumors circling with some of the big name players that may be available via trade. Minnesota was dealt an incredibly difficult first half schedule last season and the early losses seemed to snowball into some of the problems the team had as well as the injuries. Three of the first four losses for the Vikings came by five or fewer points last season and had Minnesota pulled out a few of those games it could have been an entirely different year and some of the major changes may not have taken place. In this transition year the Vikings still have enough talent to make a quick turnaround but the stability with the other three teams in the division will make it challenging. The schedule sets up pretty well for Minnesota to ease into the season as only one of the first five games will be against a 2010 playoff team. The fourth place schedule brings in games with Arizona and Washington, two teams also in major transitions and home games with Oakland, Denver, Tampa Bay will provide a few favorable situations. Minnesota does not have to play consecutive road games in consecutive weeks all season long after facing several tough travel situations last year. Recall that Minnesota only played six true road games due to collapse of the Metrodome so the Vikings faced an incredibly tough schedule in 2010. That said, even with all the injuries Minnesota played very tight games with some of the top teams in the league as they easily could have won the first meeting with Green Bay which was marred by bad call to wipe out a touchdown and also lost tight games with the Saints, Jets, and Patriots early in the season before the wheels fell off. Minnesota won at Philadelphia late in the year and statistically the Vikings were one of the best defensive teams in the league and should again have a very good running game. The Vikings have the schedule to be a surprise team in 2011 but the longer it takes to get the team organized and practicing, the worse off Minnesota will be.