NFC Playoff Picture
By John Ryan
With 5 weeks still left, the NFC picture is fairly clear as to those teams who control their own destiny. Let’s start with Philadelphia. They travel to take on Atlanta this week, who is also a contender. The division leading Cowboys travel to New York with the Giants in a MUST WIN situation. The Packers are in good shape at 7-4, but have to face a strong test against an AFC playoff contender this Monday Night (Baltimore). The 49ers have a glimmer of hope and MUST win at Seattle this week. The Cardinals are leading the NFC West by two games with five to go and are facing 10-1 Minnesota. So, that lead could easily be just one after Sunday action. So, the locks are obviously the Saints and Minnesota. The NFC East will determine what teams gain a wild card berth.
There are two contests on the card that are essentially pick-em games. Dallas is a 1 point dog at NY and SF also a 1 point dog at Seattle. Philly has yet to be lined given uncertainty over key personnel. After this game, Dallas will host a very strong San Diego team, then travel to New Orleans, then at Washington, and then the finale hosting Philadelphia. The Giants will host Philadelphia, then travel to Washington, then host Carolina and travel to Minnesota. That last game may be quite interesting given that Dallas and Philly may be playing not only themselves, but also the Giants for that last playoff spot. Minnesota may not need to play their starters at all in that game, making it a far easier game for the Giants. Philly hosts SF, then hosts Denver, and then travels to Dallas for the finale. The 49ers host Arizona in what could be a huge game and for first place in the division, then travel to Philadelphia, then host Detroit, and then travel to St. Louis for their finale. Atlanta host New Orleans, the travels to the Jets, then hosts Buffalo, and then off to Tampa Bay for their finale.
The Cardinals are the hunted team right now in the NFC. Not only must they face a tough schedule, but they may have to do it without their star QB Kurt Warner. He is still suffering from post concussion issues that are affecting his vision and ability to focus on objects. So, the potential of a loss against the Vikings looms large. Should the 49ers win at Seattle, which is a far greater probability that an Arizona win, the two teams would be playing for first place in the division the following week. An Arizona team at 7-6 would be in deep trouble given that the 49ers only remaining tough test would be at Philadelphia. The 49ers could easily end up 9-7 SU and win the West. Arizona does face Green Bay at home and the Packers may still be playing for a Wild Card or for a home playoff game. The biggest point is that the 49ers have already defeated the Cardinals in Week 1 and should they sweep the series they would have a big time edge in the division.
The NFC East is very uncertain to say the least. Without running my Ai Simulator I truly have no clue to who will be the winner in either of the marquee matchups. The Eagles have been largely inconsistent, but have been fortunate enough to get wins at the expense of opponents’ mistakes – not their own merit. Atlanta just got by Tampa Bay this past week. Nevermind who wins this week, the Falcons have a gauntlet of a schedule that is just too tough to overcome. At best, I see them going 1-2 next 3 games against Philadelphia, Saints, and then the Jets. So Atlanta is all, but out, especially without QB Ryan. Philadelphia’s star player WR DeSean Jackson is uncertain for the Falcons game after sustaining a concussion against Washington. The Eagles have a solid test of games coming up in their own right. Without Jackson, the Eagles chances of losing to Atlanta are significant. They also could struggle down the wire to a 2-3 mark ending the season at 9-7. They have two home games against the 49ers and Denver and they must win both of them and then get one road win in three tries. Those road tests are Atlanta, NY Giants, and Dallas. Obviously this week will be the easiest of the three road games.
The Giants at 6-5 may need some help to make the playoffs. They have 3 home games with the first two by far the most important games of the season. Defeating Dallas and then Philadelphia in back to back weeks is a large task even for the best teams in the league. A win over Dallas would give the Giants a sweep for the season and the tie- breaker. They already lost to Philadelphia, so if there is a MUST win of the two games it is Philadelphia. So, they too could end up 9-7 with a 3-2 finish, but that finish MUST have at least 1 win against Dallas or Philadelphia. Dallas controls their own destiny having a 1 game lead in the division and has the greatest probability of getting into the playoffs of any of the other contenders. They have the toughest schedule to face though in terms of my power ratings. They can certainly view this game against the Giants as a “win and we are in” type of motivator. I can’t see them losing to Washington so that right there gives them 10 wins with two home games against SD and Philadelphia. They also match-up well against the Chargers so that too is a game they can win.
Green Bay is at 7-4 and in a strong position to gain a Wild Card spot. They take on Baltimore this Monday Night, then travel to Chicago, then travel to Pittsburgh, then host Seattle, and have the finale at Arizona. A win this Monday all but gets them into the playoffs as I do not see them losing to Seattle nor Chicago. There is little chance they go 2-3 over this 5 game span and a much greater probability they run of a 3-1 or with a win Monday they could end up at 11-5.
Ok, I have painted some uncertain scenarios in this article and after this weekend things in the NFC will be far different then they appear now. To take advantage of this, I like playing a few prop bets. These odds were located at Sportsbook.com. I like playing Dallas to win the East laying -125. Philly is +120 and the Giants are at +800. The one play I really like is to take SF to win the West at +700.