NFC Predictions
By Joe Nelson
NFC EAST: Philadelphia, New York, Dallas, Washington
After another NFC title game defeat last season the Philadelphia Eagles made serious moves this off-season to improve immediately and Philadelphia should be considered one of the favorites in the NFC. Since the Eagles did not win this division last season they will face a slightly easier schedule and Philadelphia should start out strong with six of the first nine games of the season at home. No schedule is easy in the NFC East but as usual the Eagles return the most key players and have had the most organization stability.
For a while last season it looked like the New York Giants would have a great chance to be a repeat Super Bowl champion but the Giants faded late in the year and quickly crashed out of the playoffs. New York has been a great road team in recent years and still should feature a very solid running game and defense but a tough schedule including three straight road games early in the season might make for a tougher path for New York this season. New York still has not been able to replace WR Burress and QB Manning returned to earth last season. The Giants are definitely still a serious threat in the NFC but another 12-win season might be too much to ask.
The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to be a Super Bowl contender and this year attempted to clean house of some of the problematic character players. Dallas will have a hard time avoiding another late season slump however as the closing schedule is extremely tough and wins will be tough to come by in this division. Finishing third or fourth in this division might still mean a winning record and the pressure will be significant on a team that has not proven to be able to handle the attention.
Improving defensively was a clear priority for the Washington Redskins this season and Washington has, as usual, made several key additions. Washington gets to play a fourth-place schedule this season and this is a team that lost several close games last season. Washington may still struggle offensively at times but this could be the top defense in the division with a chance to move up.
NFC NORTH: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
This has not been a very strong division in recent years and the Green Bay Packers could be the team that rises to the top in 2009. Minnesota and Chicago will get more attention but the Packers lost seven games by four-points or less last season and had to deal with the crippling Brett Favre distractions that certainly had an impact in training camp. The Packers will catch a third place schedule and a big bounce back season could be in order. The Packers have a very favorable early season schedule and a little momentum and confidence could turn this into a very solid team even though they will not be as flashy or interesting as some of the other NFC contenders.
All that is missing for the Minnesota Vikings is a quarterback has been a repeated adage but in reality Minnesota has greater issues. The Vikings were clear favorites last season but went just 10-6 and had several ugly performances before an uninspired playoff effort. The Vikings face a tougher schedule this season and lost several key players including Center Matt Birk. Even if Favre comes into the picture the distractions might outweigh the gains.
Adding Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears offense immediately makes the Bears a more appealing team but they may not necessarily be better. The Bears went 9-7 last season and managed to win a lot of close games by not serving up critical mistakes, particularly at the QB spot. Cutler is prone to interceptions and he clearly is not as mature as an ideal signal caller needs to be. The Bears were a worse statistical team than the record indicated last season and it will be tough for the Bears to move up in this division.
Things can only improve for the Detroit Lions this season and a modest rise should actually be expected. The Lions had all sorts of problems snowball on them last season and a fresh start should provide renewed energy for a team that still has plenty of talent in key spots. This offense should be able to compete in this division but defensively the Lions are likely still one of the worst in the NFC. A tough early season schedule could be problematic but one early season win would have a big impact.
NFC SOUTH: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
The NFC South was a very competitive division last season and the New Orleans Saints finished in last place despite a 8-8 record. New Orleans has failed to live up to expectations the last two years but this year they will face a very favorable schedule and are coming off a season where they were a dominant statistical team that did not have those results translate into wins. The Saints lost six games by five or fewer points last season and the defense should get a needed boost with DC Gregg Williams being added to the staff. The Saints have a great QB and several talented play-makers on offense and now that other teams in this division are getting more attention the Saints could rise to the top.
The Carolina Panthers cruised to 12-wins last season but were blown out of the playoffs at home by the upstart Cardinals. Carolina should still maintain a very solid running game and erratic QB Jake Delhomme is good enough to keep this team in contention. Only one game all season will be against a team that had a losing record in 2008 so Carolina is a team that is likely to fall back in the standings even if they perform at a similar level as last season’s team that won the division.
The Atlanta Falcons were a great story last season and expectations are high for another step forward in 2009. QB Ryan appears to be a star in the making and the Falcons made some moves to try to continue his progress. Atlanta’s defense was not as strong as many were led to believe with the successful season and stopping the other impressive offenses will be the key issue for the Falcons. This is not a franchise that has been able to sustain success and disappointment may be on the horizon.
After a disastrous four-game losing streak wiped out a promising start to the season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cleaned house and should be a dramatically different team. In a very tough division it will be tough for a team in transition to compete and a new coach and an unsettled QB situation as well as a defense that has continued to deteriorate could add up for a rocky season. Tampa Bay will start with an absolutely brutal first half of the season and the schedule will make it very tough for first year coach Raheem Morris to build a winner in his first season at the helm.
NFC WEST: San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis
Though the NFC West was likely the weakest of any division in football last year on most measures, the champion did represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The recent history for Super Bowl losers is poor meaning that the San Francisco 49ers could actually be the team to beat in this division. With a mid-season coaching change the 49ers had a turbulent year last season yet finished 7-9, winning five of the final seven games including beating several solid teams. The QB situation will still limit this team but former #1 pick Alex Smith appears ready to finally break out if he can win the job over Shaun Hill, who played well last season. This division is wide open and San Francisco appears to be in the best position to move up.
The Seattle Seahawks had a disastrous 2008 season marred by injuries but Jim Mora will step into a favorable situation as this team has added a few big-time players and could get back to a competitive level quickly. Seattle lost several close games last season and still has had the most success in this division and maintains a very tough home field edge. Seattle could be one of the more improved teams in the league in terms of wins and is a legitimate threat to win the West.
Success has a major price in the NFL and the Arizona Cardinals will feel the pinch after a surprising run to the Super Bowl. Arizona lost its OC and also is dealing with some off-season distractions. Arizona still has a very limited running game and WR Larry Fitzgerald will not be able to carry the team every week.
A much tougher schedule awaits and Arizona could take a step back. After going 2-14 and going through another coaching change the St. Louis Rams have a long ways to go. An improved record is a great possibility in this division and the running game could still be very good if RB Steven Jackson is healthy. The lines on both sides of the ball were banged up last season which makes it tough to compete but finishing fourth in this division is still the most likely scenario for the Rams.