NFC East 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com
Dallas Cowboys: After a very disappointing 8-8 season that soured further with the rival Giants winning the Super Bowl, Dallas looks to regroup with the always elevated expectations. It only took a 9-7 record to win the East last season in what looked like a down year for the entire division before the great playoff run from New York. Dallas technically finished third in the division which makes for a slightly easier schedule in 2012 but the East teams have a tough draw with the NFC South and AFC North teams on the schedule.
Dallas is the only team in the East that has to play the Bears and the Seahawks and that draw is certainly preferable to that of the first place schedule the Giants will face. Dallas will open the year on Wednesday night in New York and then will fly across the country for a game in Seattle the following week. The next two games are at home and the Cowboys should be favored to go 3-1 into the early week 5 bye week. Things will be difficult in the weeks after that however with four of the next five games on the road and dangerous opponents in every game.
Dallas will close the year with five of the final seven games at home but the final two home games will be very difficult affairs with the Steelers and Saints visiting. Dallas went just 2-4 in the division last year and a much stronger record against its rivals will be necessary for an improved season. The Cowboys only play two road games against teams that were better than 9-7 last year so they could improve on a 3-5 road mark from 2011 but all in all the Cowboys and the rest of the East division will face tough schedules, making a wild card spot likely very difficult from this group.
New York Giants: With the great playoff run to the Super Bowl championship it is easy to forget that the Giants were just 9-7 last year. Betting ‘under’ the total wins at the beginning of the season netted a winning ticket and yet this team still won the Super Bowl. The schedule played a big role in the tough regular season and it will again be a very challenging slate this year. The Giants will be the only team in the East division that has to play Green Bay and San Francisco, the top two seeds in the NFC last year and with both of those teams being bounced by the Giants in the playoffs they will surely be big games on the calendar for the Packers and 49ers.
The Giants have a favorable first half schedule as they will only play one 2011 playoff team in the first eight weeks of the season but New York will need a good start to survive a difficult second half. New York was just 3-3 in the division last year so early season games with Dallas and Philadelphia will certainly be more challenging than they look based on the 2011 records. New York has to play three of four on the road in weeks 3 to 6 and New York has the latest bye week possible in the league in week 11.
The final six games of the season will be very difficult, playing Green Bay at home before a division game at Washington. In week 14 and 15 the Giants have the top two teams from the NFC South New Orleans and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks and the week after playing at Atlanta the Giants have to play at Baltimore. The finale is at home but it will be against Philadelphia in what could be a critical game in the standings. Only nine teams finished with ten or more wins in the 2011 season and the Giants will have to play six of them this season in one of the league’s absolute toughest schedules.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles made a ton of noise last summer with major acquisitions and the Eagles were also dealt a very promising schedule last year. It didn’t matter as Philadelphia got off to a terrible start to the season before rallying to finish 8-8 with wins in each of the final four games of the season. Having technically finished second in the NFC East last season the Eagles have to play Detroit and Arizona although that is certainly preferable to the draw that New York has and a case can be made that the third place Cowboys may even have a tougher draw.
Philadelphia was just 3-5 at home this season and they will be tested at home early in the year with elite teams visiting in the first half of the season. Baltimore, the Giants, Detroit, and Atlanta will line up the first four home games of the season for the Eagles. Philadelphia also has road games at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans in the first nine weeks so it will be tough for this team to live up to its expectations in the first half of the season and won’t be a surprise if this is a losing team through eight games. Last season the losing early seemed to really effect the mentality of the team and they definitely dropped a few winnable games, seemingly caving to the expectations.
The second half schedule is very favorable however and Philadelphia could make a late season run. Only two of the final eight opponents made the playoffs last season. Philadelphia will play five primetime games this season as the expectations are again high but injuries will be a key factor as the Eagles will need to keep Michael Vick on the field. Value could be on Philadelphia in the second half of the season if they start poorly again but expecting double-digit wins through this slate is probably optimistic.
Washington Redskins: The Redskins had a schedule that lined up wonderfully for a great start last season and Washington took advantage with a 3-1 start that could have easily been 4-0. The Redskins would lose each of the next six games despite only playing one team that eventually made the playoffs in that span. That skid helped to put Washington back in the basement of the NFC East, finishing just 5-11 on the year. Washington can say they beat the Super Bowl champions twice however as they won both meetings with the Giants by double-digits.
At this point it appears that Washington will be playing with a rookie QB this season and the early season schedule should actually enable some success with a young team in transition. The opener is at New Orleans but this year that may not be as difficult given the nightmare off-season for the Saints and the suspensions that may be in play. Three of the first four will be on the road but games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay could be promising situations as those teams are also going through major transitions. The early season home games are not overly challenging with Cincinnati, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Carolina. Five of the first eight games will be on the road but Washington won more away games than home games last season.
Five of six division games will be in the final seven weeks of the season for the Redskins and Washington was 0-4 against Dallas and Philadelphia last season. With the AFC North teams and the NFC South teams Washington has a tough overall schedule with several quality defensive teams so it won’t be easy for this team to improve its record and there are certainly big questions with what the Redskins plan to do with several personnel decisions. Washington likely won’t be favored in more than a few games this season and if the Washington can’t take advantage of a few favorable early season spots it could be a long season.
NFC North 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com
Chicago Bears: The Bears started the 2011 season 7-3 and Chicago looked like an elite team after ratting off impressive wins over Philadelphia, Detroit, and San Diego, taking a five-game winning streak into the week 12 game at Oakland. QB Jay Cutler was injured late in the San Diego win however and the Bears collapsed to a miserable finish behind Caleb Hanie, losing five in a row before winning the finale and ending up 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The benefit to the collapse is that the Bears will draw a third place schedule which could help lead to a better finish in 2012 in a very tough NFC North.
The North division teams will face the AFC South and the NFC West teams and on paper this division may feature the easiest schedules in the league. As a result of finishing third the Bears draw Dallas and Carolina from the other NFC divisions, which is a relatively favorable draw although both of those teams could be improved. Chicago should be in position for a solid start to the year with two of the first three games home games against teams that went 2-14 last year. The Bears do play at Green Bay Thursday night in week 2 but the Packers will have to play that game coming off a much more challenging opening week game. Chicago has to play at San Francisco in week 11 but overall the road schedule is pretty favorable with only three playoff teams from a year ago on the road schedule.
The Bears have an even better home schedule as they will play teams that finished a combined 27-53 in 2011 in the five out-of-division home games. Chicago will close the year with three of the final four games on the road so they will need to avoid a late season collapse but with a healthy QB and some positive additions the Bears have a schedule that should allow them to make another run at the playoffs, something they felt robbed of last season. Challenging the Packers at the top of this division is certainly a possibility even though Green Bay was 15-1 last season.
Detroit Lions: Finishing second in the North last season Detroit had a breakthrough season at 10-6. Detroit could not keep up in a playoff loss at New Orleans but this will again be a formidable team in 2012. Detroit has a somewhat difficult early season schedule with four of the first six games on the road surrounding the early week 5 bye week. Six of the eight road games this season for the Lions will be against teams that were 8-8 or better last year and the Lions are being dealt four sets of back-to-back road games.
The Lions have four home games against losing teams from a year ago and this is a team that can still produce a strong record but it won’t be easy to match 10-6, especially with Green Bay and Chicago looking like they will remain strong teams. Detroit also has the pressure of five national TV games this season, something they are not generally accustomed to and the rest of the league will be taking the Lions much more seriously this year. Detroit was only 5-3 at home last season and five wins came by seven points or less last season as the Lions were not often dominant, so there could be a slight regression for this team.
The schedule in the second half of the season looks threatening as well with both Green Bay games in the span of four weeks and having to play the Texans on a short week following the home meeting with the Packers. Back-to-back road games in Green Bay and in Arizona will be challenging in weeks 14 and 15 and while the final two games of the season will be at home, they will be potentially critical games in the playoff picture with Atlanta and Chicago visiting Ford Field. Detroit will not be overlooked anymore but this team is facing a tougher draw than Chicago in what could be a very tight race for a wild card spot.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers could do little wrong in the regular season last year with complete dominance except for the lone hiccup late in the year in Kansas City. Statistically the Green Bay defense was presenting concerns all season long however and it caught up to them in a big way in the playoffs as they were blown out at home by the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants. Green Bay should be a motivated team and the offense still has great potential to put up big numbers in 2012. The schedule rates as one of the easiest in the league based on straight wins and losses of the opposition but it could be more difficult than it looks.
The Packers open the season with a huge game against San Francisco in a battle of the top two seeds in the NFC last year. These teams did not get to meet in the playoffs as expected however and it will likely determine the early NFC favorite. There will be no rest with the Packers facing a critical week 2 game with the Bears on a Thursday night in week 2. The Packers then have a difficult road game at Seattle and facing former Green Bay QB Matt Flynn in week 3. In week 4 a highly anticipated game with the Saints will be lined up. While three of the first four games of the season are at home, it is a gauntlet of big games and it would not be a surprise is the Packers had more losses in four weeks of 2012 than in the entire 2011 regular season.
Green Bay will have to play three straight road games in weeks 5-7 and while the rebuilding Colts and Rams are involved, the middle game at Houston could be a big challenge. In weeks 11 and 12 the Packers have a brutal set of road games at Detroit and then at the New York Giants in what will be two of the biggest games of the season for Green Bay. Five of the six division games will be in the final seven weeks of the season for the Packers including road division games in two of the final three weeks. Green Bay figures to still be among the elite teams in the league but its record should fall from a year ago. It could help prepare the team for a better postseason run however.
Minnesota Vikings: It was a pretty rough first year for head coach Leslie Frazier in Minnesota. He had to abandon QB Donovan McNabb pretty quickly and also dealt with several big injuries, notably losing Adrian Peterson. Minnesota ended up just 3-13 on the season including going just 1-7 at home and going 0-6 in the division games. The Vikings opened the season 0-4 but all four losses were by incredibly slim margins and the season could have turned out quite a bit differently with a few wins in those close games. Minnesota will draw an incredibly favorable early season schedule this year and the Vikings could be a surprise team this season with a strong first half.
Only two of the first nine opponents made the playoffs last season for Minnesota and with Jacksonville and Indianapolis in the first two weeks the opportunity will be there for confidence building wins against teams in major transitions. The fourth place schedule allows Minnesota to play Washington and Tampa Bay which is a big advantage over the NFC East and NFC South teams that the rest of the division will have to face as well. Minnesota only has to play two games outside of the division against 2011 playoff teams and only six games overall counting the games with Detroit and Green Bay.
The negative for the Vikings is that the rest of the NFC North looks so tough. Green Bay should again be a very strong opponent and Detroit and Chicago both have the potential to be among the better teams in the NFC and certainly expect to be in the playoff race. Minnesota does catch a few of those division games in potentially favorable situations so there is a good chance to improve on the 0-6 division mark with an upset but winning more than one of those games would be a big accomplishment. After a week 11 bye week the schedule is very tough for Minnesota with road games in four of the final six weeks and the only remaining home games being against the Bears and Packers. There is a late season game at St. Louis and there is actually a reasonable chance that Houston and Green Bay could be locked into division titles by the time the Vikings play them in the final two weeks. An improved record for Minnesota should be very likely with this schedule although if a move to Los Angeles looms over this team all season it could create a lot of negativity.
NFC West 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com
Arizona Cardinals: Arizona went 5-11 in 2010 but many expected the Cardinals to win the NFC West last season, led by the signing of Kevin Kolb at QB. Arizona wound up 8-8 in 2011 but only after starting the year 1-6. It was John Skelton leading the team at QB as well and not the highly paid Kolb. Arizona rattled off wins in seven of the final nine games including impressive wins over Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco as the defense did not allow more than 20 points in any of the last nine games. Arizona incredibly won four overtime games last season however so things could easily have been much worse.
Arizona has to contend with a second place schedule this season despite being just 8-8 last year and the Cardinals were -36 in point differential with all the narrow wins. The West lines up with the NFC North and the AFC East making for pretty tough schedules for every team in this division. Arizona has a tougher draw among those games as well with road games at New England and at New York as well as playing at Green Bay. The second place schedule brings Philadelphia to Glendale early in the year while the Cardinals will travel to Atlanta after a week 10 bye week.
Arizona was 4-2 in division games last season including being the only NFC West team to beat the 49ers. The Cardinals will need to do well in the division again this season to have a successful year as the overall schedule is fairly difficult. Arizona opens the year with a couple of difficult games with a big opening week division game against Seattle before playing at New England and then hosting the Eagles. In weeks 4 through 7 Arizona will have winnable games with four straight losing teams from 2011 before getting San Francisco and Green Bay in back-to-back weeks. The last five games of the season also presents a difficult run of games so another great late season run is unlikely and the Cardinals will likely have a tough time matching last year’s record with this slate.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers came out of nowhere last season to go 13-3 and make it to the NFC Championship game despite a first year head coach and a much maligned QB in Alex Smith. The 49ers made some waves this winter, attempting to sign Peyton Manning and also adding Randy Moss. San Francisco was led by its defense last season but this year there will be more elite offensive teams on the schedule. San Francisco has to play all four NFC North teams already and as a result of being a first place team the Giants and Saints are also on the schedule in the NFC draw.
The 49ers have to go on the road for the two AFC games which will likely be more difficult, playing at New York and at New England. San Francisco only lost three games all last season and with the early season draw that total could be topped pretty early in the year. The 49ers open the season at Green Bay in a highly anticipated game and then must play Detroit in week 2. Non-playoff teams are on the schedule in weeks 3 and 4 and but games at Minnesota and at New York in back-to-back weeks won't be that easy, especially considering that the 49ers open the year with three of four on the road, all with significant travel. Three times this season the 49ers will have to play back-to-back road games.
Late in the year San Francisco will play four road games in a five-week stretch including games at New Orleans and at New England. Playing at Seattle is also always a difficult task and that division game occurs in week 16 after the Sunday night game in Foxboro. San Francisco deserves to be the favorites in this division but falling back a few games from last season's impressive record is likely with this challenging slate. The 49ers only beat four teams that made the playoffs last season and while there are only five 2011 playoff teams on this year's slate it looks like a more difficult path and the rest of the division should be improved.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks made a big move by signing former Green Bay back-up QB Matt Flynn and expectations should be increasing after back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Seattle actually had a positive point differential last season and uncharacteristically went just 4-4 at home in a tough season. Statistically Seattle was pretty strong on defense last season and this team lost four games by three points or less which certainly could have been the difference in making the playoffs. Seattle also had to play a first place schedule last season despite being just 7-9 in the previous year.
Seattle does not have a favorable early season schedule this year so after starting 2-6 last year it may be tough to dramatically improve in 2012's first half. Road games at Carolina, San Francisco, and Detroit occur in the first eight weeks as well as home games with Dallas, Green Bay, and New England. Seattle will only play seven true road games as they play Buffalo in Toronto in week 15 but there is significant travel with four games in the Eastern Time zone. Seattle does get to play all three division home games at the end of the year in the final four weeks and it is generally preferred to have the division home game after the division road game by most coaches.
Seattle will need to win on the road early in the year to avoid a horrible start so the early season games at Arizona, at St. Louis, and at Carolina could prove critical with the very tough home games in the first few weeks. Seattle could again be a play-on team in the second half but they will likely need a few upsets in the first half to realistically make a run at the playoffs. For getting a third place schedule there is not a great edge for the Seahawks as Dallas and Carolina don’t look like typical third place teams.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams had an upstart 7-9 year in 2010 to follow the ugly 1-15 2009 season but it all came crashing back last season with a 2-14 season and a coaching change. St. Louis opened the season with an incredibly difficult schedule last year and the hopes of being a breakout team were quickly dashed. The Rams had to play all four NFC East teams plus Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans in the first seven weeks, and the Rams were 0-6 before stunning the Saints. Injuries did not help the cause last season as Sam Bradford missed some time but the schedule played a huge role in the downfall.
This year the schedule can help the Rams to a much more successful season although the first half is again challenging. St. Louis has given up a home game to play in London this year and they have road games at Detroit and at Chicago in the first three weeks of the season. The early season home games could offer some promise and it is certainly more favorable than last year’s gauntlet. St. Louis will play Washington, Seattle, and Arizona at home in the first five weeks and they also have a winnable week 6 road game at Miami. Getting Washington and Tampa Bay in the fourth place schedule is certainly a big advantage compared with the draws for the rest of the division.
If the Rams can compete in the first half and score an upset or two they could emerge in the playoff race late in the season with a very favorable second half schedule. St. Louis plays San Francisco twice in the final eight games but they play teams that were 8-8 or worse in 2011 in the other six games. The first San Francisco game comes after a bye week and the second San Francisco game comes following the huge Saints/49ers game so either could be a possible upset spot. Four of the final six games of the year will be on the road but none the of those road foes looks overly threatening. Arizona and Seattle certainly offered more promise last season but if any team is to emerge from this division as a true surprise team this year it will be St. Louis with the schedule playing a big role.
NFC South 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had an up-and-down 10-6 season last year, finishing second in the South division but failing in both games with the Saints. Atlanta again struggled in the postseason with an ugly 24-2 first round exit against the eventual Super Bowl champions. Atlanta was 6-2 at home last season and they will only face two home games against teams with a winning 2011 record in the 2012 season. The season starts out with favorable opportunities as the Falcons will play a team with a either a new coach or a new starting QB in four of the first six weeks of the season which should propel the Falcons to a strong start.
Atlanta won't play a team that had a winning 2011 record until week 10 and they only have four games all year against such teams. Atlanta does not have back-to-back road games all season long as they perfectly alternate road and home games through the course of the season. With the Saints potentially in disarray this season the Falcons will be in the best position to take advantage and claim this division and potentially emerge as one of the top seeds in the NFC.
The South division will face games with the NFC East teams and the AFC West teams which has to be considered a favorable draw considering that only one of those eight teams had a winning record last season. The second place schedule brings a late season Saturday game at Detroit as well as a home game with Arizona in week 11. Atlanta faces a tough late season schedule with the Saints, Panthers, Giants, and Lions in four consecutive weeks but overall Atlanta has to feel good about the 2012 slate and this should again be a playoff contender and a team that could be in the mix for a top seed in the NFC.
Carolina Panthers: Carolina was just 6-10 last season but it was as impressive as 6-10 could be. The Panthers were only outscored by 23 points on the season and rookie QB Cam Newton looks like he will be a force in the league for many years to come. This division might be wide open with the Saints juggling suspensions and the Falcons aging but Carolina may be too quickly being placed in contender status. Carolina has a difficult opening to the season so they will need to weather the early storm and this is a team that still has questions on defense. Home games with the Saints and Giants line up in weeks 2 and 3 and games at Atlanta and at Chicago are also in the first half of the season so the Panthers will know whether or not they can take the next step early in the year.
The Panthers draw Seattle and Chicago in the third place schedule but the biggest issue for the Panthers will be a difficult home schedule. Only two games among the eight home games will be against teams that had losing records last season. Carolina was just 3-5 at home last season and Charlotte has not often been considered a difficult place to play like the other venues in the division often are. While Atlanta and New Orleans get to catch several of the teams in transition on the schedule early in the year, the Panthers have many of those games late in the year when things may be more stable for those franchises which could be a disadvantage.
Carolina will again be an exciting team to watch this season and progress should be made in 2012 but the expectations need to be grounded. Improving to 8-8 would be a big step forward and a reasonable goal for a team that was at the bottom of the league in 2010. Carolina was able to surprise several teams last year with its passing offense, as this had been a run-first team for so many years and with opponents having film and better preparation for Newton there may be a small step back in the numbers. The elevated expectations and a somewhat tricky schedule relative to the rest of the division could ground some of the high hopes for Carolina.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been in the headlines a lot this spring for a lot of negative reasons and it is hard to say what will happen with all the suspensions and investigations looming. Head Coach Sean Payton will not be there this year and there could be disarray especially early in the year as the team works with a shortened staff and potentially missing a few players. Fortunately for the Saints the schedule starts out favorably. New Orleans draws 2011 losing teams in the first three games of the season including the first two games going against teams in fairly significant transitions. Big games are lined up in weeks 4 and 5 but by then New Orleans could be in better shape.
The Saints are the only team in the division that has to play the Packers and the 49ers so New Orleans was going to be at a disadvantage this season anyway in their goal of repeating as South division champions. Having those two games could easily be the difference in winning this division as Atlanta appears to have a much more favorable schedule and in the ten years of existence for the NFC South, there has never been a repeat champion. New Orleans was 13-3 last season and one of just three teams that was 8-0 at home last season and the Saints only have two home games against 2011 playoff teams so this is still a dangerous team.
The road schedule for the Saints is challenging however especially late in the season with road games at Atlanta and at New York in back-to-back weeks as well as road games at Dallas and a long trip to Oakland. With all the potential distractions and transition issues with the staff expecting a decline in record for New Orleans is logical and with this schedule it looks reasonable to expect a worse record by a few games. The Saints certainly can score some points and be a playoff team but Atlanta probably deserves to be the favorite in the division based on the schedules.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There is not much margin of error in the NFL and after Tampa Bay had a 10-6 season in 2010, a season where they clearly caught some breaks in close wins and in the schedule, the staff was cleared out as the team dropped to 4-12 last season. Tampa Bay had the second worst point differential in the NFL last season at -207 but this was also a team that clearly gave up, going 0-10 after a 4-2 start with the negativity building. This is a team that had early season wins over both Atlanta and New Orleans and also had close losses with Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay before the wheels fell off so there are not empty shelves remaining for the new staff.
There are many questions with what direction Tampa Bay goes in with new head coach Greg Schiano bolting to the NFL from Rutgers. The Buccaneers can address some needs in the draft and Tampa Bay has been very active in pursuing free agents already this spring. Tampa Bay could certainly be a team that has a relatively quick turnaround as the talent on the team was better than the 4-12 record as it was clear that former coach Raheem Morris lost the team at some point and there was not great leadership in the locker room. Tampa Bay opens the season with a critical game against Carolina and weeks 2 and 3 present difficult games at New York and at Dallas. Tampa Bay has three home games and a bye week in weeks 4 through 7 and that will be a key stretch to determine the trajectory of the season after what could be a tough start to the season.
The late season slate is challenging with the road visits to New Orleans and Atlanta both in the final three weeks of the season. Tampa Bay also has to face Denver, St. Louis, and Oakland late in the year when those teams that are in transition could be playing their better ball. Tampa Bay does get games with Minnesota and St. Louis, teams that had horrible results last season so that is a big advantage over say the Saints getting Green Bay and San Francisco in those match-ups. Tampa Bay will probably start out slowly and may not have the ability to win the big late season games against playoff contenders but in the middle of the year there should be opportunities for this team and improvement is possible through this slate.