NFC South preview: Football's best division?
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
You can make a cogent case for the NFC South being the best overall division in the NFL.
After two somewhat down years, the South produced three winning teams, two wild-card playoff teams, and an overall record of 40-24 that was better than any of the other seven divisions last season. And New Orleans, the division bottom-feeder at 8-8, was only four possessions away from a 12-4 record.
The South has the league’s most prolific quarterback (Drew Brees), the best young quarterback (Matt Ryan) and a Top-5 space shot (Jeremy Shockey). The coaching is excellent if anonymous and three of the four teams have the capability of making a Cardinal-style run deep into the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected win total: 6.5
Prediction: Under (-110)
If there’s one potential toxic waste dump in the division, it’s here. The Bucs have made the decision to start over. Jon Gruden was let go after last season’s four-loss December collapse, including a home to loss Oakland in which the Bucs gave up 17 points in the final period.
New coach Raheem Lewis cleaned out a slew of veterans, including linebackers Derrick Brooks and Cato June, and RB Warrick Dunn. Quarterback Jeff Garcia was also bid adieu. That set off yet another wild scramble for the starting job, and Luke McCown, Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson and Byron Leftwich are battling it out.
Lewis figures it will take a few years to straighten things out and that’s probably as much time as he has. There aren’t many playmakers on this team and that probably explains why there has been talk that the Bucs are considering biting the bullet and making a run at WR Plaxico Burress.
There are even rumors that Michael Vick might be a decent fit into an offense that scored the fewest points in the division last season and is the odds-on favorite to do that again. Burress and Vick would fit right in on a team that signed Kellen Winslow Jr. in the offseason.
Surprising stat: Last season’s six playoff teams, plus 11-5 New England, gave up more yards per game than Tampa Bay did (306).
Carolina Panthers
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over (+100)
John Fox is a smart guy and the Panthers are lucky to have him as head coach. But will someone please explain why a team that was mercilessly running the ball down the throats of every opponent on the schedule does a 180 in the playoffs and decides to let erratic Jake Delhomme determine whether or not you play for the conference championship the following week? Instead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams ramming the ball at a shaky Arizona defense 30 times, Delhomme spit the bit with five interceptions and a lost fumble.
So what’s in store for Carolina after that fiasco? Probably not 12-4 again, but the Panthers have enough talent to contend for a playoff spot. They’ll definitely run the ball behind Stewart (recovering from a foot injury) and Williams, but a playoff spot could ride on whether the Panthers improve defensively.
Fox used his first three draft picks on defenders (DE Everette Brown, CB Sherrod Martin and DT Corey Irvin), and a big weight was lifted when Julius Peppers signed an offer sheet to return this season.
New defensive coordinator Ron Meeks, coming over from Indianapolis, will have to get things in order quickly. The Panthers open at home against Philadelphia, then travel to Atlanta and Dallas, beginning a stretch in which they play five of seven games on the road.
Surprising stat: In the playoff loss to Arizona, the Panthers had the ball only 20 of 60 minutes, and Jake Delhomme’s first-half quarterback rating was 13.9.
Atlanta Falcons
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over (-110)
Who are you and what have you done with the Atlanta Falcons? These guys are no longer bottom feeders. There is talent on offense (Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez) and defense (John Abraham, Mike Peterson). A team stained by Michael Vick was expected to start yet another rebuilding process, yet now sits among the NFL’s best.
One need after another has been met. Turner gained 1,699 yards last season and made the Falcons the second-best team on the ground. That opened things up for rookie QB Matt Ryan, who tossed for 3,440 yards (only 11 interceptions) and an 87.7 rating. The terrific offense in turn helped buy some time for management to shore up what was a mediocre defense.
Ryan threw only 30 passes to tight ends last season, but that will change this season as Gonzalez comes on board. The future Hall of Famer will add yet another weapon to the offense.
The defense never hit highway speed in 2008, even against some mediocre offenses. Defensive end John Abraham is solid, but at 31 is teeing up on the back nine. The Falcons need a breakout year from 2007 top draft choice Jamaal Anderson. Veteran Mike Peterson comes over from Jacksonville, where he was losing playing time.
Surprising stat: The Falcons were 1-5 over/under in games played on grass last season.
New Orleans Saints
Projected win total: 9
Prediction: Over (-110)
The Saints need to get better – a lot better. Any team that leads the NFL in scoring and finishes 8-8 and in last place in the division has defensive troubles everywhere. With New Orleans, it starts in the secondary. The Saints picked off only 13 passes in 2008 and were one of only four teams without a defensive touchdown, leading to the signing of standout safety Darren Sharper. Sharper will be one of several new faces in the defensive backfield. Anthony Hargrove was signed to add some juice to the defensive line.
The only offensive concern coach Sean Payton has is determining the whereabouts of TE Jeremy Shockey. The Saints rolled the dice on Shockey last year, forfeiting second and fifth-round draft choices. Shockey responded by underachieving amid a series of injuries. He rehabbed in his usual spot – the pool at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas – while the rest of the team was going through OTAs, and it was hardly his fault if he got dehydrated and hospitalized.
Despite Shockey’s shenanigans, QB Drew Brees should again put up huge numbers. Reggie Bush may not be the player everyone figured on coming out of college, but he’s a Grade-A NFL player. The Saints should win nine, could win 10 or 11, and should easily leapfrog past Tampa Bay and into contention in the South.
Surprising stat: Five of New Orleans’s eight losses last season were by a total of 15 points.