NFC South Preview: Will the Saints march again?
By David Chan
Don’t like the team on top in the NFC South? Wait a year and somebody else will be king of the castle. The NFC South hasn’t produced back to back division champs in its entire eight-year existence.
New Orleans, the defending Super Bowl champion, is expected to break the one-and-done spell in the NFC South but it’s always tough to return to the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.
The Carolina Panthers are in a rebuilding mode, although word out of Las Vegas is bettors are taking a flyer on the longshot Panthers to win the division with Matt Moore at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dominated by new faces this season and the Atlanta Falcons have the talent to make a deep playoff run, providing they can stay healthy.
New Orleans Saints
Projected win total: 10.5
Prediction: Over
What’s new: The biggest loss on defense was linebacker Scott Fujita (Browns) but they picked up defensive ends Alex Brown (Bears) and Jimmy Wlikerson (Buccaneers), linebacker Clint Ingram (PUP with a knee injury) and cornerback Patrick Robinson. Running back super sub Mike Bell went to the Eagles and backup QB Mark Brunell became a free agent.
What’s the same: Despite dealing with some injuries, the offense is as potent as it was last season with quarterback Drew Brees, backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.
The team averaged about 400 yards of offense and 35.7 points a game in the regular season. Brees threw for nearly 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns and Colston had 70 receptions for 1,074 yards.
On defense, the secondary is in good shape with cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and safeties Roman Harper and Darren Sharper. Defensive end Will Smith had 12 sacks last season.
Key stat to remember: The Saints led the league in defensive touchdowns (eight) and finished with twice as many as the team with the second most.
Atlanta Falcons
Projected win total: 9
Prediction: Over
What’s new: The Falcons took a strong step to improve their defense with the additions of cornerback Dunta Robinsons (Texans) and draft picks Sean Weatherspoon and William Moore. Safety Matt Giordano (Packers) should help too. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry, last year’s first round pick, returns after missing the season with a knee injury.
What’s the same: Quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner return after an injury-plagued 2009 campaign. Receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez provide two sure-handed wideouts across the middle and downfield. Michael Jenkins is another wide receiver but the ace in the hole could be receiver Harry Douglas who missed all of last season with torn ACL. Defensively, Jamaal Anderson, Jonathan Babineaux and defensive end John Abraham are the anchors.
Key stat to remember: The Falcons were one of the best ATS teams in 2009. They went 11-5 against the number and two of their non-covers came with starting QB Matt Ryan missing part or all of the game.
Carolina Panthers
Projected win total: 7
Prediction: Under
What’s new: Quarterback Jake Delhomme has departed and is with Cleveland and receiver Muhsin Muhammad retired. Thomas Davis was lost to a season-ending knee injury in the spring. Delhomme’s departure opens up the starting job to Matt Moore or drafted quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Moore will likely begin the season as the starter but will surely have a short leash with Clausen on board.
For years the Panthers have searched for a standout No. 2 receiver and there is potential with drafted receivers Brandon LaFell (LSU) and Armanti Edwards (QB turned receiver, Appalachian State). The Panthers will be searching for a standout pass rusher with Julius Peppers with Chicago now.
But there were some gains on defense with the additions of linebacker Eric Norwood (South Carolina) and defensive tackle Ed Johnson (Colts).
What’s the same: The running game is the strength on offense with running-back-by-committee duo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who each rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. As usual super star receiver Steve Smith is hurt – he’s out indefinitely after breaking his arm in a flag football game.
Dwayne Jarrett is another starting receiver but Lafell will make a serious challenge for that No.2 spot once Smith returns. A mediocre defense is led by cornerbacks Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall and linebackers Jon Beason and Dan Connor.
Key stat to remember: The Panthers went 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread with Matt Moore under center.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected win total: 6
Prediction: Under
What’s new: Among the key losses for the Bucs are receiver Antonio Bryant (Bengals), quarterback Byron Leftwich (Steelers), safety Will Allen (Steelers) and defensive end Jimmy Wilkerson (Saints). The Bucs hope that drafted receivers Arrelious Benn (Illinois) and Mike Williams (Syracuse) and Reggie Brown (Eagles) will step in and make an immediate impact.
The defense picked up defensive tackles Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) and Brian Price (UCLA) and safeties Sean Jones (Eagles) and Myron Lewis (Vanderbilt).
What’s the same: Quarterback Josh Freeman returns for his sophomore season after a tough rookie season. The best receiver on paper for the Bucs is tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. who had 77 receptions and nearly 900 yards.
Receivers Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall will be challenged for playing time. Right guard Davin Joseph and center Jeff Faine lead a mediocre offensive line. Running back Cadillac Williams stayed healthy in 2009. But he and backup Derrick Ward will need to improve to give the team a balanced attack on offense. Cornerbacks Ronde Barber and Agib Talib return with Barber getting up there in age. Barrett Ruud leads the linebackers.
Key stat to remember: Tampa Bay had the third worst team quarterback rating at 59.8. The Bucs played below the total in six of rookie QB Josh Freeman’s eight starts.
NFC SOUTH DIVISION PREVIEW
By Marc Lawrence
NFC SouthIf you are a vegan chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is sure to satisfy your palate.
It's in this division they've been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay made playoff appearances three times each this past decade, while New Orleans won last year's cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.
Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this loop as evidenced by its 49-46 SU and 58-37 ATS mark since the league re-aligned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road and seeking revenge they are 29-16 ATS, including 18-6 when facing a .500 or less opponent.
And when they take on the AFC North this campaign they'll do so knowing this Mason-Dixon battle has seen the underdog go 13-4-2 ATS in the last 19 skirmishes.
Yes, there's lots of tantalizing hors d'oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and it's pretty much finger licking good.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.
ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: BURN BABY BURN
Head coach Mike Smith was hot under the collar when his Falcons fell one-game short of making it back to the playoffs two years in a row last season. Completing the first-ever back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history wasn't enough to satisfy Smith's driving desire. Had star QB Matt Ryan not gone down to injury early in December (0-2 without him), successive playoff appearances would likely have been in the offing. In addition, RB Michael Turner missed five games last season while managing to rush for 871 yards. The 240-pound burner is a difference-maker when healthy. On the defensive front, the hope is that former Pro Bowl DE John Abraham returns to 2008 form when he had 16.5 sacks. This we know for sure: Smith does not condone losing. It's one reason why the Falcons are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in games off a loss under his lead. Now that's a flammable warning you need to heed.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) – *KEY off a loss
CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: FOX TROT
After playing in SB XXXIX in 2003 and making it back to the NFC championship game in 2005, the Panthers have been on cruise control, appearing in only one post-season game since. It has fans on edge and head coach John Fox on the run. Despite averaging nearly 9.5 wins per season in his nine-year tenure with Carolina, Fox is suddenly on shaky ground. As a result, a major roster overhaul is at hand. Of the 85 players on hand at a spring minicamp, 36 weren't with the team for the final game of the 2009 season. QB Jake Delhomme (Cleveland) was cut and five-time Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers (Chicago) was allowed to leave in free agency. The four quarterbacks on hand have a combined eight NFL starts, with rookie Jimmy Clausen challenging Matt Moore for the starting job. For a coach entering the last year of his contract and coming off an 8-8 season, it's time to strike up the band.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (10/3)
NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: HAIL SATAN
When a team that had a total of two post-season victories the previous 42 years goes on to win three playoff games in the same season, including a coveted Super Bowl championship, we'd call that a crowning achievement. Not to say the Saints cut a deal with the Devil, but blessed they were for sure in their Super Bowl run. New Orleans trailed 24-10 at Miami before storming back to win. Down 11 at the half against Carolina, the Aint's rallied to win by 10. And of course the classic overtime thriller against the Vikings in the NFC title game. Drew Brees refused to lose and as a result the Crescent City came full circle in its comeback over Hurricane Katrina. But as years of experience have taught us, there's always a price to pay if ever the names ‘Satan' or ‘Super Bowl Champion' are in the discussion. Try as they may, the Saints may be double-cursed in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tampa Bay (1/2) – *KEY -7 pts or more
TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: BUC ‘EM
Let's face it. With 18 undrafted free agents on the 53-man roster, Raheem Morris was a dead man walking in his rookie season last year. What he did manage to salvage out of a three-win season was plenty, though. Wins in two of the three final games of the season, including an overtime victory over Super Bowl champion New Orleans (as 14-point underdogs) topped the list. So did the fact that the Bucs went 3-6 behind QB Josh Freeman, a quantum leap over the 0-7 start they suffered before he was inserted into the lineup. Freeman has all the physical attributes and is a workaholic. He may not carry the high profile of Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, the two highly touted QB's drafted ahead of him in the 2008 draft, but he could care less. Like Morris, all he's looking to do is improve. Behind a super draft, look for the Bucs to ignore the critics and begin the climb back up the ladder.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. St. Louis (10/24)